G60 2017-18: Avalanche at Oilers

Tonight may be the final game as Oilers for several at Rogers, including Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu and Mike Cammalleri. Could we see Anton Slepyshev heading out of town? Drake Caggiula? Ryan Strome? Based on some of the teams who have been following the Oilers around lately, anything is possible.

THE ATHLETIC!

BABY BLUE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 3-7-0, goal differential -7 (6 points)
  • February 2017: 5-5-0, goal differential -2 (10 points)
  • February 2018: 2-7-1, goal differential -8 (5 points)
  • February 23, 2016: Ottawa 4, Edmonton 1 (Source)
  • February 26, 2017: Nashville 5, Edmonton 4 (Source)

February hasn’t ever been a stellar month during the McLellan era, a win tonight by this year’s version of the team puts them ahead of 15-16 and within striking distance of the playoff team. There were rumors of a possible Sekera return earlier in the week.

AFTER 59, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 22-31-6, goal differential -41 (50 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 32-19-8, goal differential +20 (72 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 24-31-4, goal differential -31 (52 points)
  • February 20, 2016: Colorado 3, Edmonton 2 (Source)
  • February 21, 2017: Tampa Bay 4, Edmonton 1 (Source)

Barring a winning streak of more than six games, it’s safe to say that this team’s outer marker (in terms of points) is about 75. On Boxing Day this team was 17-17-2 with some real issues and some walking around money, but the general manager didn’t make a move. Why? Why would a GM, who was already in an uncomfortable spot, pass on the opportunity to help his cause? More in a minute.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheimSan Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-7-1, five points in 10 games 

Why didn’t Chiarelli pull the trigger and add a more substantial backup goalie, or a right-wing for Connor McDavid? You could argue he thought Andrej Sekera would give the team a boost but I’m not buying. Sekera’s injury is known to include subpar performance in the month or more after return. It’s an interesting question.

WHAT’S HE BUILDING IN THERE?

According to CapFriendly, Edmonton has reached the trade deadline with $8 million in cap space (and they also project it to be $37 million in deadline dollars, meaning they could take on an enormous amount of money) with some bonuses (McDavid, Nurse) eating into that total.

What was the plan? Some say add at the deadline but as the numbers above show, Edmonton couldn’t possibly spend all of their cap room if they so desired at this deadline. Possible reasons include:

  • Chiarelli was told to back off and put the trade book away.
  • The prices were too dear.
  • All trades would have impacted future cap.
  • There were so many holes the general manager decided his own team was a lost cause.

Either way, the team didn’t add a substantial backup goalie, didn’t find an upgrade on the wing and we now arrive at the deadline with gigantic cap room, but only for a minute.

PROJECTED CAP SITUATION ENTERING SUMMER

I have estimated some contracts and used Jesse Puljujarvi’s full bonus number. There isn’t much room here, I do expect the team to move Oscar Klefbom out, likely in exchange for a righty blue who can help on the power play. I wouldn’t make that move, for me Klefbom is the last defender on the trade list.

Jim Matheson has Toronto, Pittsburgh and Columbus interested in Mark Letestu, three is a fine number for your No. 4 center at this time of year. In my article for The Athletic this morning, I mention Sonny Milano of the Blue Jackets as a possible target. It would probably take more than six weeks of Letestu, but the Jackets are an interesting team to ponder.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

All hell appears to be breaking loose at the trade deadline, we’ll chat about it this morning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Heartbreak in women’s hockey at the Olympics, Oilers at the deadline.
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com & ESPN. Why do fans overrate the trade value of players on their favorite team?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Deadline gone wild.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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550 Responses to "G60 2017-18: Avalanche at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. Rebilled says:

    Leon is stoked Germany is in the semis.

  2. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    What a fun and entertaining game to watch.

    Two phenomenal scoring plays by Leon.

    I feel bad for those Oiler fans that are no longer watching games.

    LIke you, pal, I will not stop watching. I may have a little less invested emotionally in the team these days, but that does not mean I don’t like watching–or I am a masochist…could be that.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    That was insane!!!

    That topped the earlier goal for sure!!! Wow!!

    Not even close (in my opinion) – the first play was made 5 on 5 with materially less room on the ice.

  4. JimmyV1965 says:

    OilClog: I saw a period if they had a couple shooters with their 20 shots they’d score a few. Not scenarios where a top 4 RHD cures the problem.

    They have no cheechoo, this team as constructed if they had a 30 goal winger while running Leon down the middle fulltime, they’d be currently in a different position. Joe had a bunch of assists, made a bunch of guys look amazing and helped TMac’s systems succeed.

    changing D around doesn’t magically make the forwards create the already Ridiculous amount of chances 97 and 29 create.

    They need forwards that can convert. Even if they get Erik the red out if Ottawa, they need forwards that can convert for 97 and 29, and let’s not forget 93, whose goals are sorely missed right now. They need a scoring winger so bad.

    IMO moving the puck out of the dzone is the worst part if our game. It’s not an issue tonight, but it sure was against Boston.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Maybe we shouldn’t trade Drai. Just sayin.

    3 for 1 – only way to re-set the cap structure.

  6. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Also hoping McDavid has one more run in him to catch Kucherov. Also think Malkin is a threat. That man when healthy is a force.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Not so much this year

    You are saying Drai isn’t elite this year?

  8. Old Timer says:

    I sure hope that JP can develop man strength like Draisaitl has. It would be great to see the two of them man handling opponents.

  9. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I feel bad for those Oiler fans that are no longer watching games.

    Don’t.

    Fan the way you want and I will do the same.

    This coaching staff is a f^cking travesty and I refuse to subject myself to their ineptitude.
    Self preservation and all that.

    Tonight was fun but don’t kid yourself, we are fucked if we bring this staff back next year.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Old Timer:
    I sure hope that JP can develop man strength like Draisaitl has. It would be great to see the two of them man handling opponents.

    He will, when he becomes a man – he’s currently a teenager.

  11. thehop says:

    Pouzar: Almost as much as Cammalleri

    What the fuck is that about?

    I had to rub my eyes to make sure I was seeing properly.

    I hate that gamble.

  12. Pouzar says:

    thehop: What the fuck is that about?

    I had to rub my eyes to make sure I was seeing properly.

    I hate that gamble.

    JP/Kass played their bags off.

    But you know, Cammelleri is the vet and we are playing for a playoff spot.

  13. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: You are saying Drai isn’t elite this year?

    I was trolling you man…I do that sometimes to keep people honest. 🙂

  14. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar: 3 for 1 – only way to re-set the cap structure.

    Are you trolling me with this?

  15. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its an extremely middling return – was hoping the prospect would be more material but this prospect isn’t really much of one.

    Is that true though?

    I’m just going on boxcars, tough for a defenseman. But last year he had 7 Pts in 7 games at the World Jrs. and was named one of the Russia’s top 3 players.

    This year and last he’s established himself as a regular on the best team in the KHL (still just 20 now). Scoring a little and a plus player both years. 6’2″ and 215.

    I don’t know that he’s a good prospect, but those look like up arrows to me.

    All I’m saying I guess is that it’s tough to conclude that he’s a throw in. As far as I can tell he could be a very legit prospect, even if he’s not famous.

  16. thehop says:

    Pouzar: JP/Kass played their bags off.

    But you know, Cammelleri is the vet and we are playing for a playoff spot.

    That’s a bs move by the coach. It’s been happening all year.

    I won’t shed a tear if he and his assistants are skidded.

    Fuck em

  17. Bank Shot says:

    jp: Is that 5X5 SH%? Or am I misunderstanding Individual SH%?

    Overall Hall’s SH% is 12.5% this year (25G/200SH)

    His career # is 10.6% (10.3% before this year).

    Year 1 and 2 where his best SH% years prior to this one.
    So his SH% in the past 5 yrs (before this one) is 9.5%

    In the past 3 yrs (before this one) he’s at 8.8%

    That means this year he’s shooting 2% better than his career.
    3% better than his past 5 yrs
    And 3.5% better than his past 3 yrs.

    Fair?

    His on ice shooting percentage throughout his career is 10.6% as well. This year its 13.1%.

    His own higher shooting percentage is probably driving his on-ice % somewhat.

    Either way, players don’t generally find an extra gear 8 seasons in. This is Hall’s best ppg in his career. There is a very high percentage chance that this will be the best individual season he has.

    McDavid is having his worst season in terms of on ice shooting percentage.

    15/16- 11%
    16/17- 12.5%
    17/18- 9.4%

    Looking around at other elite characters like Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Kane, Stamkos. These percentages tend to be 11% or greater for a career.

    This might be the worst season McDavid has in the next five.

    I like it.

  18. Pouzar says:

    thehop: That’s a bs move by the coach. It’s been happening all year.

    I won’t shed a tear if he and his assistants are skidded.

    Fuck em

    Puljujarvi with 11 shot attempts.

  19. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bank Shot:
    This might be the worst season McDavid has in the next five.

    I like it.

    Season’s not done yet. 22 games–McDavid could put up 40 points from here. His finish last year was nuts. It was about this time last year when I PM’d LT and said he is going to get 100 points. He wasn’t even on pace for it then, but he found that gear. He is capable of a huge run late.

  20. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not even close (in my opinion) – the first play was made 5 on 5 with materially less room on the ice.

    Fair point.

    I thought for sure Drai was going to be pushed offside in OT, then he pushed back and won. I didn’t really see what happened after that 🙂

  21. Bank Shot says:

    Pouzar: Puljujarvi with 11 shot attempts.

    I like his enthusiasm. Maybe needs to work on his shot selection a bit, but I like that the OIlers have a guy that likes to blast the puck. They are a bit heavy on passers in their skill.

  22. Pouzar says:

    Bank Shot: I like his enthusiasm. Maybe needs to work on his shot selection a bit, but I like that the OIlershave a guy that likes to blast the puck.They are a bit heavy on passers in their skill.

    When you’re dealin with kids and inept coaching you must focus on the glimpses of talent. There were quite of few of those tonight for JP.

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    thehop,

    OriginalPouzar: 3 for 1 – only way to re-set the cap structure.

    Hey. I think I’ve heard that mentioned before. LOL

  24. Pouzar says:

    “I thought Test did a good job managing that line”
    –TMc

    OMG I am gonna vomit.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    thehop: Are you trolling me with this?

    It’s all in good fun. You have your opinion and it’s valid one to have. Others disagree.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar: Puljujarvi with 11 shot attempts.

    Thought he looked good tonight. He has some nice stickwork as well.

  27. jp says:

    Pouzar:

    Fan the way you want

    Pouzar:

    OMG I am gonna vomit.

    Evidence that #1 was great advice.

  28. Bank Shot says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Season’s not done yet. 22 games–McDavid could put up 40 points from here. His finish last year was nuts. It was about this time last year when I PM’d LT and said he is going to get 100 points. He wasn’t even on pace for it then, but he found that gear. He is capable of a huge run late.

    That’s true. I hope he can put up a massive year end streak and push for the Art Ross. Seems almost impossible now, but failing that, it would be nice if he pots some serious goals down the stretch.

    Goal scoring is the only offensive question mark he hasn’t answered so far. Would be nice to see him finish top 5 or 10.

  29. Wilde says:

    Damnit, I don’t know if we can out-tank Price and Weber-less MTL.

    Bottom 6 will have to do.

  30. Wilde says:

    6th in the lottery odds gives us no lower than 9th, and a 23.5% chance of top 3.

  31. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde:
    Damnit, I don’t know if we can out-tank Price and Weber-less MTL.

    Bottom 6 will have to do.

    Screw the lottery. I hope they win 10 straight.

  32. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bank Shot: Screw the lottery. I hope they win 10 straight.

    This. The odds of getting Dahlin are real slim as it is. Rather hit 85 points from here and have something to build on for next year. But play the kids a bit and see what you’ve got.

  33. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): This. The odds of getting Dahlin are real slim as it is. Rather hit 85 points from here and have something to build on for next year. But play the kids a bit and see what you’ve got.

    – Assuming that Letetsu/Cami/Maroon are gone, really does it matter what happens?

    -It’s an honest question, because the narrative for all losing teams is “build on for next year”

    – It’s BS IMO. Nothing predictive or setting the table for next year happens when a team is playing out the season. Plus if there is a new coach who cares?

    – Giving reps to the Pools and Jars etc: that’s real, but it’s also not compatible with winning much.

  34. thehop says:

    JimmyV1965: It’s all in good fun. You have your opinion and it’s valid one to have. Others disagree.

    I was hoping more Lowetidians were joining the band.

    Alas I am still a one man show when it comes to that.

    I have to admit, my stance is softening as each game goes by.

  35. thehop says:

    Pouzar:
    “I thought Test did a good job managing that line”
    –TMc

    OMG I am gonna vomit.

    What does that even mean? Managing a line?

    I have never heard that, ever from a coach with reference to a player.

  36. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I agree with you, but what I mean is giving reps and teaching youngsters is growth for next year. Team is already a loser this year, I am not certain that giving reps to youngsters now is not going to be any worse on that front!

  37. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    thehop: What does that even mean? Managing a line?

    I have never heard that, ever from a coach with reference to a player.

    changing diapers

  38. Bank Shot says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Assuming that Letetsu/Cami/Maroon are gone, really does it matter what happens?

    -It’s an honest question, because the narrative for all losing teams is “build on for next year”

    – It’s BS IMO.Nothing predictive or setting the table for next year happens when a team is playing out the season.Plus if there is a new coach who cares?

    – Giving reps to the Pools and Jars etc: that’s real, but it’s also not compatible with winning much.

    Yeah it matters.

    An 80+ point team is better than a 65 point squad.

    If the Oilers finish out the season strong they show that they are closer to being a playoff threat than a doormat next season.

    I don’t have the math handy on this, but historically I imagine that there are way, way, way, way more 80+ point teams that improve to 95+ points, than 70 point teams that jump to 95+.

  39. JD_Wry says:

    thehop: What does that even mean? Managing a line?

    It’s supposed to mean that his new coach won’t have to worry about him.

  40. jp says:

    Pouzar:
    “I thought Test did a good job managing that line”
    –TMc

    thehop: What does that even mean? Managing a line?

    I have never heard that, ever from a coach with reference to a player.

    2M for Letestu as assistant coach. Played PP and PK don’t you know. Won’t count against the cap at least

  41. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: Screw the lottery. I hope they win 10 straight.

    I’d rather they lose ten straight so there can be no questioning the job security of McLellan and Chiarelli.

  42. thurmtim says:

    jp:
    2M for Letestu as assistant coach. Played PP and PK don’t you know. Won’t count against the cap at least

    That a funny thought… how would that work under the CAN as a playing coach… can his salary be league min as a player portion and whatever else as a coach? Is there a loophole?

  43. Bling says:

    Frame this game.

    This is why you do not need to blow it up.

    Every time you get frustrated, don’t think about trading Klefbom or Nuge.

    Think about this game.

    This team has loads of potential. What it needs is a manager who is willing to make the small moves that add serious depth.

    No big trades, please!

  44. thurmtim says:

    Oops damn spell check. CAN should read CBA in last comment…

  45. JD_Wry says:

    Bling: This is why you do not need to blow it up.

    If only they could always play against bottom 1/3 goals against teams, and narrowly beat them.

  46. RonnieB says:

    Wilde:
    Damnit, I don’t know if we can out-tank Price and Weber-less MTL.

    Bottom 6 will have to do.

    I wouldn’t count on 6th just yet. The Rangers are if full tank mode and only 5 points away, Detroit is only 4 points away and the Blackhawks are terrible. We could end up with the 9th or 10th pick in which case i hope we can trade up for Bouchard.

  47. godot10 says:

    Jaxon: I realize that is what Cap Friendly says, but they get there info from news sources. Beer League Heroes has introduced information that seems to contradict it and has shown his sources.

    I was wondering the same thing right after he was signed:

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/07/06/a-satisfied-mind/comment-page-1/
    “JAXON says:
    July 6, 2017 at 9:09 am
    Does anyone have a definitive (and sourced) answer on whether Russell’s has a full NMC kicks that in right away and becomes a modified NMC on July 1, 2019 or he has no clauses until his modified NMC kicks in on July 1st, 2019. I’m finding conflicting info. There were reports that there was no NMC until the modified NMC in his 3rd year, but CapFriendly has it as a full NMC until the 3rd year when it becomes a modified NMC.”

    This info seems to support that information. Going back to the day of his signing Rishaug and others just reported the clauses in his final two years and nothing before that. Even then there were conflicting reports. Two sites that track contracts have conflicting info. Those sites use news reports as their sources, so they were probably reading the same news stories we were. And then someone mentioned his full NMC at an Oilers fan breakfast and Chiarelli corrected them. I’m not convinced either way, but hopeful that it is no clauses for the 1st two years.

    http://nationalpost.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-sign-kris-russell-to-four-year-contract-worth-4-million-per-season/wcm/05e76e07-6339-401b-b9fb-125a64cf5ac5

    The deal calls for $5 million in the first year, then $4.5, $4.0 and $2.5 million in the last three. It also has a no movement clause in the first two years.

  48. Bling says:

    JD_Wry: If only they could always play against bottom 1/3 goals against teams, and narrowly beat them.

    If there’s one thing that I’ve learned from this blog, it’s that the score doesn’t really tell you anything about the game.

  49. Bling says:

    Pouzar:
    “I thought Test did a good job managing that line”
    –TMc

    OMG I am gonna vomit.

    This is really a bizarre comment.

  50. godot10 says:

    Bling:
    Frame this game.

    This is why you do not need to blow it up.

    Every time you get frustrated, don’t think about trading Klefbom or Nuge.

    Think about this game.

    This team has loads of potential. What it needs is a manager who is willing to make the small moves that add serious depth.

    No big trades, please!

    Colorado was playing without their only real and experienced defensemen.

  51. deardylan says:

    I posted this yesterday and boom it plays even better today on the Lowetide Jukebox.

    I’m gonna sit back right easy and laugh
    cause Dr. Drai and McDavid bust Colorado defence in half” today! haha

    JASPER AVE FREEZE OUT (when Lowetide drops a Springsteen Title I can’t just sit here)
    If you don’t know this song… or too young to know or sick of Oilers/Refs/Scoring Droughts.

    Whatever you are doing…
    …Stop drop and rock & roll baby!!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUjivw_-W0Y

    Tear drops on Oil city
    Bad Lucic searching for his groove
    Seem like the whole division walking pretty
    And we can’t find the room to move
    Well everybody better move over, that’s all
    I’m running on the bad side
    And I got my draft to the wall
    Jasper Avenue freeze-out, Jasper Avenue freeze-out

    When the change was made uptown
    And McDavid joined the band
    From the coastline to the city
    All the little pretties raise their hands
    I’m gonna sit back right easy and laugh
    When Dr.Drai and the McDavid bust this city in half

    With a Jasper Avenue freeze-out, Jasper Avenue freeze-out
    Jasper Avenue freeze-out…
    PJs stranded in the no goal jungle
    Taking all the heat he was giving
    The night is dark but the sidewalk’s bright
    And lined with the light of the living

    From a Saigon window 630 ched blasts
    Turn around the corner things got real quiet real fast
    I walk into a Jasper Avenue freeze-out
    Jasper Avenue freeze-out
    And I’m all alone, I’m all alone
    And kid you better get the picture
    And I’m on my own, I’m on my own
    And I can’t go home to Edmonton

  52. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Great game. At the end of the day I think we can all agree that game was just plain fun to watch. Leon in particular was more than worth the price of admission. Simply imposed his will all over the ice. It looked like a man playing against boys out there.

    Also really liked Zack and Sleppy too.

    JPs enthusiasm is a joy to watch, seems like he always has a smile on his face. Would love to see him stapled to Nuge and a decent wing on a 3rd line when the Nuge gets back. I know a lot of people would like to see him bat higher in the lineup but I think patience is the order of the day for Jesse. The wait will be well worth it.

  53. Wilde says:

    I’m so torn on Boqvist vs Hughes.

    The only thing that’s going to save me is if one is gone when we pick, or they take Wahlstrom.

  54. Wilde says:

    Another 3 points for Maksimov.

    Up to 37.6 NHLe now, and #25 in primary ppg in the OHL.

  55. Professor Q says:

    Wilde:
    I’m so torn on Boqvist vs Hughes.

    The only thing that’s going to save me is if one is gone when we pick, or they take Wahlstrom.

    Has Bouchard fallen so far now?

  56. Wilde says:

    Professor Q: Has Bouchard fallen so far now?

    For me Hughes and Boqvist are in a tier, and then Merkley, Bouchard, Wilde.

    The thing with me for Bouchard is he’s older, scores a bunch from the far point, and doesn’t have that holy-shit gift like Hughes’ skating and Boqvists’s creativity.

    I should add that I prefer certain player-types and attributes to a fault, and in no way attempt to be an objective observer of prospects.

    I’ll also say that I think Bouchard is probably only one more junior year away from making a serious case at training camp, whereas Wilde or Boqvist would need two from where I can see right now.

  57. GMB3 says:

    Wilde: For me Hughes and Boqvist are in a tier, and then Merkley, Bouchard, Wilde.

    The thing with me for Bouchard is he’s older, scores a bunch from the far point, and doesn’t have that holy-shit gift like Hughes’ skating and Boqvists’s creativity.

    I should add that I prefer certain player-types and attributes to a fault, and in no way attempt to be an objective observer of prospects.

    my real concern is us picking number 2 and blowing the choice between Zadina and Svechnikov.

    Scott Wheeler had some very nice things to say about Bouchard in the last few days. Sounds like his “it factor” is a big hockey brain. That tends to translate to successful pro employment but maybe not the same ceiling as Hughes, Merkley, or Boqvist.

    I hope we pick third. I believe it was Scott Wheeler who said Svechnikov sounds like he has the speed, hands, and shot. And Zadina was just filthy in the WJHC.

  58. Georges says:

    Bank Shot: Yeah it matters.

    An 80+ point team is better than a 65 point squad.

    If the Oilers finish out the season strong they show that they are closer to being a playoff threat than a doormat next season.

    I don’t have the math handy on this, but historically I imagine that there are way, way, way, way more 80+ point teams that improve to 95+ points, than 70 point teams that jump to 95+.

    The season to season correlation for points per games played is weak, usually around 0.5, I think. If you’re using this season’s results for a team to predict its results for next season, the 95% confidence interval for your prediction is going to be quite wide.

    An improvement to 95+ points is a big jump for both a 70 point team and an 80 point team, a jump that will put these teams on the other side of the mean. You may think the jump for an 80 point team is much more likely because the 80 point team is clearly better and the gap is smaller. But, as I said, the season to season correlation is weak. How a team performed in season one doesn’t tell you a whole lot about how it will perform in season two. But regression to the mean tells you that teams get closer to the mean; they don’t cross over to the other side of the mean. 70 point teams in season one will see a bigger increase in their point total (on average) in season two than the 80 point teams in season one. They’ll both end up closer to the mean with the weaker teams in the first season closing the gap in the second season. But the jump across the mean that you’re talking about is basically going to be random, something accomplished by teams in the tails of the prediction interval. And these tails should have roughly the same probability of occurrence once you take into account the effect of regression to the mean.

    From what I see in the data from 2005-06 on, teams that finished with 70 or fewer points (0.85 Pts/GP) are just as likely to get 95 or more points (1.16 Pts/GP) as teams that finished between 78 (0.95) and 86 points (1.05). About 1 in 4 teams in both cases.

    I didn’t look at the finishing strong idea though. There may be something there. But I don’t think so.

  59. Wilde says:

    GMB3: my real concern is us picking number 2 and blowing the choice between Zadina and Svechnikov.

    Scott Wheeler had some very nice things to say about Bouchard in the last few days. Sounds like his “it factor” is a big hockey brain. That tends to translate to successful pro employment but maybe not the same ceiling as Hughes, Merkley, or Boqvist.

    I hope we pick third.

    I love Zadina. You watch his highlights, and it’s literally just him one-timing it cleanly, or snapshotting past goalies clean.

    Exactly the type of finisher this team needs.

    But I still go Svechnikov, because he can do that too, and score in every other way as well. 30G in 33 games in the OHL. Stamkos was 58 in 61.

    Or if we’re third and he’s gone, Zadina has 39 in 47 in the QMJHL, shooting 18% to Svech’s 23%.

    They can’t fuck this up, can they?

  60. Wilde says:

    Georges:

    I didn’t look at the finishing strong idea though. There may be something there. But I don’t think so.

    My little brain thinks it’ll be noisy as hell. 20 games with wildly different strength of schedule, based on the growth of the talent discrepancy from playoff teams vs sellers.

    The bye-week structure, too. I just don’t know.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Colorado was playing without their only realand experienced defensemen.

    So, by that theory, the Oilers get a full pass for all games lost when Larsson (and Nuge) were out of the lineup?

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Only a couple of hours until the CAN/GER semi-final. Looking forward to it!

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game on – Go Canada!

  64. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Oilers legend Derek Roy almost opens the scoring.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georges: The season to season correlation for points per games played is weak, usually around 0.5, I think. If you’re using this season’s results for a team to predict its results for next season, the 95% confidence interval for your prediction is going to be quite wide.

    An improvement to 95+ points is a big jump for both a 70 point team and an 80 point team, a jump that will put these teams on the other side of the mean. You may think the jump for an 80 point team is much more likely because the 80 point team is clearly better and the gap is smaller. But, as I said, the season to season correlation is weak. How a team performed in season one doesn’t tell you a whole lot about how it will perform in season two. But regression to the mean tells you that teams get closer to the mean; they don’t cross over to the other side of the mean. 70 point teams in season one will see a bigger increase in their point total (on average) in season two than the 80 point teams in season one. They’ll both end up closer to the mean with the weaker teams in the first season closing the gap in the second season. But the jump across the mean that you’re talking about is basically going to be random, something accomplished by teams in the tails of the prediction interval. And these tails should have roughly the same probability of occurrence once you take into account the effect of regression to the mean.

    From what I see in the data from 2005-06 on, teams that finished with 70 or fewer points (0.85 Pts/GP) are just as likely to get 95 or more points (1.16 Pts/GP) as teams that finished between 78 (0.95) and 86 points (1.05). About 1 in 4 teams in both cases.

    I didn’t look at the finishing strong idea though. There may be something there. But I don’t think so.

    Fair enough (assuming the data backs up your post), however, if the Oilers finish strong and get to apx 80 points as opposed to apx 70 points, in all likelihood, that means that Cam Talbot had a strong finish to the year which, in my opinion, is huge going in to next year.

    No, a strong finish to the year by Talbot doesn’t mean he’ll start the year strong next year but it would be a bit of an indicator that the first 2/3 of this season is indeed the outlier and would give Cam confidence heading in to the summer and camp in the fall and, likely most importantly, would provide Cam’s teamates with full confidence in him.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Team Canada’s PP looking worse than the Oilers PP!

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just a minor boarding penalty – GER a bit lucky that wasn’t a major.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    CAN takes a high sticking PIM while on the PP to make it 4 on 4.

    On the ensuing faceoff, Borque with a faceoff violation after the first guy was already kicked out so another PIM.

    GER with a 4 on 3 which will be a 50 second long 5 on 3 shortly.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    GER scores on the 5 on 3.

  70. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Gulp.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Robinson fanned on two clearning attempts prior to the goal.

  72. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    FFS. Robinson had 2 chances to clear and he fanned TWICE

  73. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Robinson fanned on two clearning attempts prior to the goal.

    Beat me to it!

  74. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kind of think our guy took a dive there. We’ll take it.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its like watching an Oiler game – CAN struggling on the PP and special teams are, so far, the difference.

  76. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its like watching an Oiler game – CAN struggling on the PP and special teams are, so far, the difference.

    Don’t know if they took the Germans lightly but they have been sloppy and a step behind almost the whole period.

  77. 99thoilerfan says:

    Morning Canada !

    “It’s a great day for hockey” – “Badger Bob” Johnson

    Let’s Go Canada !

    *Clap Clap*

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ferarro keeps talking about CAN getting frustrated already – it will be Willie D.’s intermission job to ensure that doesn’t continue in the 2nd.

  79. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ferarro keeps talking about CAN getting frustrated already – it will be Willie D.’s intermission job to ensure that doesn’t continue in the 2nd.

    I’m watching the CBC feed in Japan, so I think my gremlins are delayed a bit…Korea to Toronto to Tokyo. LOL. 1st intermission. Canada needs to play better. 5 shots, mostly from well outside, won’t cut it.

  80. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Never change Don, never change.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Uh oh, 2-0 GER.

    Lots of time – don’t panic and just get the next goal.

  82. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Ugh Klinkhammer

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    3-0 Germany – wow!

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    CAN needs to get one back by the end of the period to make it a 2-goal game going in to the third.

  85. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Beautiful goal—that will play over and over in the highlights. Canada’s got nothin tonight.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Big save there by the German goalie – I won’t even try to spell his name.

    Big PP coming up here for Canada – the previous few have been ineffective and have given away momentum.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Atta boy Brule – Canada back in it.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some crazy fun action now!

    CAN going back to the PP on another too many men for GER.

  89. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Doh, I am behind, Ha ha. Get one more on this PP !

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some crazy fun action now!

    CAN going back to the PP on another too many men for GER.

    Got to kill this PIM first though.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn – GER scores on the PP – lucky deflection.

    CAN needs to get that one back before the end of the period.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brule going to the box for a dirty hit.

    He might get a major – GER player hurt.

  93. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Well shit.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    That’s gotta be 5 – dirty high hit by Brule. Terrible.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Massive 5 min kill coming up here.

    Can’t go down by 4, that’s for sure.

  96. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Like what the heck was he thinking there? Just awful discipline. Fucked over his team.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Almost a beauty SH goal by Lapierre but no dice.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Like what the heck was he thinking there? Just awful discipline. Fucked over his team.

    I think he was thinking about energizing the team and creating momentum with a big hit but, clearly, his execution was lacking and he just ended up making a very dirty and undisciplined hit.

  99. Wilde says:

    Jesus christ boys, what’s happened here? 4-1? Dirty hit apparently?

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Huge to kill that major.

    A goal for CAN in the last two minutes here would be huge.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Another undisciplined penalty by Canada and, again, by a “veteran/leader” – Borque with a high stick – his second poor play of the game hurting his team.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Jesus christ boys, what’s happened here? 4-1? Dirty hit apparently?

    Very dirty, very!

    They killed it off but then Borque gets his stick in the face of a GER player and they are SH again.

    Down by 3 going in to the third.

  103. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Very dirty, very!

    They killed it off but then Borque gets his stick in the face of a GER player and they are SH again.

    Down by 3 going in to the third.

    To the head? or a knee/clip? I can’t find the replay

  104. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Silver Lining – Wouldn’t it be great if this, combined with Leon, the NHL going to there for for a couple of games, etc., was part of a surge in growth for hockey in Germany? Talk about a country primed to grow the sport in.

  105. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Wilde: To the head? or a knee/clip? I can’t find the replay

    Head.

  106. Wilde says:

    Nailer Yakumoto:
    Silver Lining – Wouldn’t it be great if this, combined with Leon, the NHL going to there for for a couple of games,etc., was part of a surge in growth for hockey in Germany? Talk about a country primed to grow the sport in.

    I was just thinking, I wonder what the score would be right now if they had Leon Draisaitl.

  107. frjohnk says:

    Wilde: I was just thinking, I wonder what the score would be right now if they had Leon Draisaitl.

    Imagine McDavid on this ice.

    That would have been a treat to watch

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Huge early goal for Canada.

    Penalty shot upcoming for GER

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Huge save.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Imagine McDavid on this ice.

    That would have been a treat to watch

    You’ll see it in 2022 – NHL will definitely by in China.

    I’m not sure how great it will be – the big ice stifles offence – everything is pushed to the outside and is so far from the net. I’m not sure that brilliant speed is able to overcome the lack of offence from the big ice.

    We shall see.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder if Matt Robinson parlays this opportunity in to an NHL contract?

    He’s had some productive seasons in the KHL and rightie d-men that can move the puck are in demand.

    Wait, do the Oilers need a puck moving rightie d-man?

    Not sure if he’s able to play 2nd pairing minutes though……

  112. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: You’ll see it in 2022 – NHL will definitely by in China.

    I’m not sure how great it will be – the big ice stifles offence – everything is pushed to the outside and is so far from the net.I’m not sure that brilliant speed is able to overcome the lack of offence from the big ice.

    We shall see.

    That’s because we are not seeing the world’s best. I agree that usually big ice games are not great, but that’s because the teams aren’t as skilled. When it’s best on best and the way the game is played now in the NHL vs. say Torino days, this would have been great with NHLers.

    Thanks Gary.

  113. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I wonder if Matt Robinson parlays this opportunity in to an NHL contract?

    He’s had some productive seasons in the KHL and rightie d-men that can move the puck are in demand.

    Wait, do the Oilers need a puck moving rightie d-man?

    Not sure if he’s able to play 2nd pairing minutes though……

    He might get a PTO for sure. But no, he does not look like a Top 4 capable guy to me–remember who he is playing against. This isn’t NHL calibre.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): That’s because we are not seeing the world’s best. I agree that usually big ice games are not great, but that’s because the teams aren’t as skilled.When it’s best on best and the way the game is played now in the NHL vs. say Torino days, this would have been great with NHLers.

    Thanks Gary.

    I don’t think I agree with that. If I remember correctly, even with the insanely skilled teams at the past Olympics, they weren’t overly offensive games as, with the wide ice, the play is generally so far from the net. Maybe I am mis-remembering – I did do ALOT of drugs in the recent past……

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Big PP coming up – lets get within one.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Boom – one goal game with half a period left.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice veteran play by D. Roy – he’s cagey like one Mike Cammalleri.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): He might get a PTO for sure. But no, he does not look like a Top 4 capable guy to me–remember who he is playing against. This isn’t NHL calibre.

    Yes, I agree that talent level in this tournament is reduced, however, he’s also had some productive seasons in the KHL for Moscow Dynamo and the KHL is a low scoring league.

  119. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think I agree with that.If I remember correctly, even with the insanely skilled teams at the past Olympics, they weren’t overly offensive games as, with the wide ice, the play is generally so far from the net.Maybe I ammis-remembering – I did do ALOT of drugs in the recent past……

    Sochi was pretty good. Agreed Turin was awful for a lot of reasons, but back then teams played differently.

    McDavid, MacKinnon, Hall, Duchene, etc. would be amazing to watch on this ice vs other skilled teams.

    And I don’t think trapping teams like Switzerland could hold them effectively.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    GER going back to the PK – they are rattled.

    Lets not forget, they gave up a 2 goal lead in the third against SWE.

  121. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I agree that talent level in this tournament is reduced, however, he’s also had some productive seasons in the KHL for Moscow Dynamo and the KHL is a low scoring league.

    I think he gets a shot in the NHL if he wants it. But that and stepping into Top 4 are a bit different.

    Go Canada Go!

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): I think he gets a shot in the NHL if he wants it. But that and stepping into Top 4 are a bit different.

    Go Canada Go!

    Agreed!

  123. Wilde says:

    yeah this had become a flopping contest in rapid fashion since I started watching

  124. Wilde says:

    Kozun with the attempted Barzal

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tough loss.

    Fun game to watch!

    Go Germany!

  126. Wilde says:

    Wild finish.

  127. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Did I hear that right? 4 goals on 15 shots for Germany?

  128. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    Did I hear that right? 4 goals on 15 shots for Germany?

    Was scrivens in net? If so that sounds about right…

  129. Wilde says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    Did I hear that right? 4 goals on 15 shots for Germany?

    The whole ‘real chances vs perimeter shots’ thing gets said more than it’s true; but this game was exactly like that in the first two periods from the shot map

  130. Wilde says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Was scrivens in net? If so that sounds about right…

    It was Other Dude, I think Scrivens stayed out with an injury from prior game(?)

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Was scrivens in net? If so that sounds about right…

    No – he got hurt last game.

    Team Canada may have won if Benny S. was in net – may have.

  132. Pouzar says:

    Wilde:
    I’m so torn on Boqvist vs Hughes.

    The only thing that’s going to save me is if one is gone when we pick, or they take Wahlstrom.

    I want one of the talented R shot D-men.

  133. Pouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Another 3 points for Maksimov.

    Up to 37.6 NHLe now, and #25 in primary ppg in the OHL.

    Great potential here but does anyone trust present company with his development?

    TMc could take a page out of Paul Maurice’s book in this regard.
    His handling of Laine, Kyle Connor, Ehlers, and now Jack R has been fantastic.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov is back in junior this year and will be back in junior next year.

    Presumably he will be signed and turning pro the year after and will battle at camp for a roster spot but, most likely, will head to the AHL for additional development (could be a year, could be 3).

  135. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: His handling of Laine, Kyle Connor, Ehlers, and now Jack R has been fantastic.

    Jets are loaded with good young players and prospects.

    If we can ever get out of the basement, some of the roads to the Cup will travel through Winnipeg.

  136. russ99 says:

    Pouzar: Great potential here but does anyone trust present company with his development?

    TMc could take a page out of Paul Maurice’s book in this regard.
    His handling of Laine, Kyle Connor, Ehlers, and now Jack R has been fantastic.

    Good point. Maybe it’s best that our better prospects are in junior and overseas.

    I hope Nicholson does something about the disaster our AHL team has become under Howson.

    The Rangers take on Grabner bodes well on us getting a good return on Maroon.

  137. Georges says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fair enough (assuming the data backs up your post), however, if the Oilers finish strong and get to apx 80 points as opposed to apx 70 points, in all likelihood, that means that Cam Talbot had a strong finish to the year which, in my opinion, is huge going in to next year.

    No, a strong finish to the year by Talbot doesn’t mean he’ll start the year strong next year but it would be a bit of an indicator that the first 2/3 of this season is indeed the outlier and would give Cam confidence heading in to the summer and camp in the fall and, likely most importantly, would provide Cam’s teamates with full confidence in him.

    “… (assuming the data backs up your post)…”

    You should check. I could’ve made a mistake. I think it’s important that we test what we say against the data. To keep each other honest. And to improve our understanding of the game and our team.

  138. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Jets are loaded with good young players and prospects.

    If we can ever get out of the basement, some of the roads to the Cup will travel through Winnipeg.

    The Winnipeg/Atlanta franchise has 0 playoff series victories. I don’t think they’ve won a playoff game. So the road to the Cup has been nowhere near Winnipeg. They should do something about that. This is as good a year as any. If they get Dallas in the first round, could be fun to watch.

  139. frjohnk says:

    Georges: The Winnipeg/Atlanta franchise has 0 playoff series victories. I don’t think they’ve won a playoff game. So the road to the Cup has been nowhere near Winnipeg. They should do something about that. This is as good a year as any. If they get Dallas in the first round, could be fun to watch.

    Im not talking about the past.
    Looking towards the future. With their young players and prospects, the future is bright for the Jets.

    Im a part time Jets fan.

    As I have said before.
    I cheer for 3 teams.
    1. Oilers
    2. Jets
    3. Any team that plays against the Flames.

    2 and 3 are interchangeable

  140. Jaxon says:

    Wilde: I was just thinking, I wonder what the score would be right now if they had Leon Draisaitl.

    Haha, if they had Drasaitl, that would mean NHL players were playing and Team Canada would probably blow them out in the 10-1 range or something ridiculous, it would also mean that Germany would never make to this stage of the tourny.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99: Good point. Maybe it’s best that our better prospects are in junior and overseas.

    I hope Nicholson does something about the disaster our AHL team has become under Howson.

    The Rangers take on Grabner bodes well on us getting a good return on Maroon.

    The AHL team should be getting a nice influx of talent at forward this coming fall and even more the next few years.

    There was an influx of talent on D this past year and Lagesson should be coming next year and Samorukov the year after.

    The talent level on the Condors should/will be going up over the next few years.

  142. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Im not talking about the past.
    Looking towards the future.With their young players and prospects, the future is bright for the Jets.

    Im a part time Jets fan.

    As I have said before.
    I cheer for 3 teams.
    1. Oilers
    2. Jets
    3. Any team that plays against the Flames.

    2 and 3 are interchangeable

    I’ll cheer for the Jets this year too. It’s startling how unsuccessful the franchise has been, although just 5 of those years have been in Winnipeg. Maurice and Chevy should feel some heat. Bright futures can get derailed by unexpected losing. I have no read on how the playoffs are going to go. I guess NSH would be the favorite in the WC. A WPG-DAL series in the first round could be a hoot.

  143. frjohnk says:

    Georges: A WPG-DAL series in the first round could be a hoot.

    yup

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