Running wild

Oilers fans were treated to a throwback game that looked like last year all over again at Rogers on Thursday night. Connor McDavid could have pocketed a dozen, Leon Draisaitl put the steam in steamroller and the defense punished and passed well enough to keep the Avalanche at bay. Cam Talbot was beaten on a long ranger that was screened and a gigantic fluke, but kept Colorado from finding the dagger. Now it’s on to California and the trade deadline.

THE ATHLETIC!

FOUR STRONG WINDS, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 3-8-0, goal differential -10 (6 points)
  • February 2017: 5-6-0, goal differential -3 (10 points)
  • February 2018: 3-7-1, goal differential -7 (7 points)

Crazy months all three, the Oilers of 15-16 were deploying 97, 29, 4 and 14 regularly. Justin Schultz and Teddy Purcell were still on the team and we were still discussing Nail Yakypov’s future. The 16-17 team was about to go on a terrific run through the end of the season and you already know about this year’s model.

AFTER 60, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 22-32-6, goal differential -42 (50 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 32-20-8, goal differential +17 (72 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 25-31-4, goal differential -30 (54 points)

In a season where it’s been necessary to revise expectations on a daily basis, perhaps there is some traction now for the good ship Oiler this year. It would be nice for the team to leave the 15-16 in the dust (that club would gather 20 points in the last 22 games) and push toward 82 points. Small victories are big steps.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheimSan Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 3-7-1, seven points in 11 games 

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Larsson went 28-17 in 18:04, the two men spending 11 glorious minutes with McDavid rolling down the highway. Went 15-10 against Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen, pairing had three giveaways. Nurse looks good to me, I wonder if the coach would consider putting him with Russell and then playing the Swedes together. I think that’s the right setup.
  • Klefbom-Russell were 18-17 in 13:52, 0-1 GF and just six fabulous minutes with 97 (everybody was enjoying themselves with the top line). Pairing went 13-10 against the MacKinnon trio.
  • Davidson-Benning went 8-10 in 11:48, 1-0 GF together. Played just 91 seconds with McDavid, that was all it took for the goal to be scored. Went 4-2 in 2:22 against the Landeskog line.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 28 of 30, .933. He’s posting some nice save percentages in recent games (.969, .923, .933 and now .933).
  • Among these men, if I’m trying to figure out if anyone was being showcased, I think the answer is Matt Benning. Come summer, my guess is Klefbom might be in some danger.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Puljujarvi-Letestu-Kassian were 21-6 in 13:12, of course the goal by Kassian being the highlight. The Oilers got what they wanted, a showcase for the center on this line. He had his family in the stands, there was an article (Matty?) about he and his wife turning the entire trade deadline into an adventure. Good parents, those. Puljujarvi looked really good all over the ice, had one brilliant chance and a few other in the area moments. Line went 11-3 against Compher-Kerfoot-Wilson.
  • Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl were fire, 25-19 and 1-1 GF while going 10-0 in HDSC’s. Colorado’s goalie was incredible on the night. McDavid had 7 HDSC’s, Leon 2 and Lucic 1. Went 20-16, 1-0 GF against the MacKinnon line.
  • Slepyshev-Strome-Cammalleri went 18-17, 0-1 GF and Slepyshev had two brilliant chances. I’m really impressed with his late season showing, wonder if the Oilers are thinking about bringing him back next season. Went 9-5 against the MacKinnon line.
  • Auvitu-Khaira-Pakarinen went 2-8 in 5:55, very little going on from any of them.
  • If I’m looking for showcase evidence, Mark Letetu got the big time on ice push. He played 14:05 at 5×5, the pivot is averaging 8:45 in the discipline this season. Zack Kassian also played four more minutes than he is averaging but that’s probably part of the Letestu bounce.
  • Anton Slepyshev also played four more minutes than average but in all honesty he was the best option. It may be a case of renewed faith in a pretty talented hockey player.  Talk about your last minute recoveries.

WHAT’S THE PLAN, MAN?

Terry Jones is reporting Peter Chiarelli will have a media avail at 10 this morning. This could be a quick track suit update or sometimes they morph into a full fledged media conference. If it was more formal, I’d suggest signing Patrick Maroon would have been on the agenda. As it is, I don’t think that will happen.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll talk about Germany’s massive win at the Olympics and lots of hockey. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. What the hell happened at the Olympics?
  • Chris Ryan, NJ.com. Big trade for Grabner, Hall setting the woods on fire.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Point Counterpoint on NHLers not being at the Olympics. How do you like it now?
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Deadline chat.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

459 Responses to "Running wild"

« Older Comments
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson finishes with 1 assist (and 6 shots) – anything against Carter Hart is a plus.

    Yamamoto finishes with a goal and two assists (and plus 5) in a 9-2 win.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    A couple of hours until Team Canada plays Czech for the bronze – here is hoping they are more disciplined and are able to finish the tournament with a win and a medal.

  3. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Benson finishes with 1 assist (and 6 shots) – anything against Carter Hart is a plus.

    Yamamoto finishes with a goal and two assists (and plus 5) in a 9-2 win.

    Do you know what Yammamotos NHLe is for his draft +1? I have no idea where to even find that

  4. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    GMB3: Do you know what Yammamotos NHLe is for his draft +1? I have no idea where to even find that

    If using Vollman WHL translation is .29, so 52pts in 31 games works out to 39.9pts in 82 games in the NHL. But yes, he is older so you’d have to take that down a peg. But he has been on fire lately so let’s see where it winds up. 2ppg would be a nice up arrow.

  5. Wilde says:

    GMB3: Do you know what Yammamotos NHLe is for his draft +1? I have no idea where to even find that

    I posted his updated NHLE earlier, maybe that was the post from the day before I dunno.

    NHLE is best used for draft year or earlier prospects, and AHLers imo.

    The modifier for WHL NHLE is 0.30, here’s the equation:

    ( 52 Pts / 31 games ) * 0.30 = 0.50

    So we’re looking at an NHLE of 41.

  6. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Bank Shot,

    Feverish opposition?It was me cheering like crazy for us to get Jones even though you really had to ignore his advanced stats and look at his attributes and Woodguy had Ellis circled correctly.

    Also if you think Hall = kessel you are nuts DSF.Hall is rightfully getting some rumblings for Hart consideration.Kessel is a very good player but other than points doesn’t come close to tilting the ice like Hall.

    Also speed is the new size. It’s sad that we continue being years behind the rest of the league when some of us have been screaming this for years.

    And if you have the ability to run McDavid Drai and Nuge 19 min a night on their own line you do it. Who cares about the 4th line center.There is no need to do what other teams do.Other teams have a 3rd line center cause they don’t have a Nuge they could play there

    I wholeheartedly agree with this. RNH is a solid second line center. I can’t really imagine a trade scenario where we get better by trading RNH. If we “need to acquire winger for McDavid” as some on this blog and the MSM have put it, why not give RNH a run of games on McDavids wing in this lost season? If it works, then you can run him with McDavid and move him down as the situation calls for it. Then let Drai push the river on the second line. Or run them as three centers.

    It makes little sense to give up an organizational advantage. Ideally our GM would have spent his cap more wisely so this notion would not even need to be entertained

  7. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): If using Vollman WHL translation is .29, so 52pts in 31 games works out to 39.9pts in 82 games in the NHL. But yes, he is older so you’d have to take that down a peg. But he has been on fire lately so let’s see where it winds up. 2ppg would be a nice up arrow.

    When I put cut his post-WJC pace and applied it to the games remaining, it ended up at around 2 PPG.

  8. Wilde says:

    GMB3: I wholeheartedly agree with this. RNH is a solid second line center. I can’t really imagine a trade scenario where we get better by trading RNH. If we “need to acquire winger for McDavid” as some on this blog and the MSM have put it, why not give RNH a run of games on McDavids wing in this lost season? If it works, then you can run him with McDavid and move him down as the situation calls for it. Then let Drai push the river on the second line. Or run them as three centers.

    It makes little sense to give up an organizational advantage. Ideally our GM would have spent his cap more wisely so this notion would not even need to be entertained

    The thing that’s confusing for me about this ‘acquire a winger for McDavid’ thing, and people talking about spending real assets and salary for it, is that McDavid’s line is the only one that doesn’t need that.

    The best non-Drai line McDavid has had, is him plus a 19 year old and a complimentary guy we got for Martin Gernat. And they had the results of a legitimate first line.

    The only time McDavid’s wing was a problem is when our coach gave him two hours of Caggiula.

  9. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde: When I put cut his post-WJC pace and applied it to the games remaining, it ended up at around 2 PPG.

    Yup. It’s just a line in the sand, but it would be a nice one to get to.

  10. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde,

    McDavid just needs a Guentzel type. A good skating 15 goal guy with some 2-way awareness. McDavid will turn him into a 25 goal guy.

    If anything Drai is the centre who needs a better finisher. He makes those nifty backhanded passes to his left–needs either a right shot one time guy on his left side (Slepy?!) or a lefty dangler with some finish.

    If they can’t acquire much this summer how about:
    Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Slepyshev-Draisaitl-Sheary/Byron(type)
    Lucic-Strome-Caggiula
    Pakarinen-Khaira-Kassian

  11. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Yup. It’s just a line in the sand, but it would be a nice one to get to.

    I think he’ll surprise people next year, especially if he’s with McDavid.

    That hour he spent with 97 this year, man, if they got the bounces.

    24 high danger chances per 60. 24. What.

    To put that in perspective, McDavid has the highest rate in the league as a regular player this year with 17.29.

  12. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wilde,

    McDavid just needs a Guentzel type.A good skating 15 goal guy with some 2-way awareness. McDavid will turn him into a 25 goal guy.

    If anything Drai is the centre who needs a better finisher. He makes those nifty backhanded passes to his left–needs either a right shot one time guy on his left side (Slepy?!) or a lefty dangler with some finish.

    If they can’t acquire much this summer how about:
    Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Slepyshev-Draisaitl-Sheary/Byron(type)
    Lucic-Strome-Caggiula
    Pakarinen-Khaira-Kassian

    I still stick by this

    Nuge – McDavid – Pulujarvi
    Slepy – Draisaitl – Ho-Sang
    Petan – Khaira – Strome
    pking – warm – bodies

    Realised halfway through writing this that you can trade Nuge out of here for a pure W and end up okay. The key is getting Petan + Ho-Sang.

  13. GMB3 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): If using Vollman WHL translation is .29, so 52pts in 31 games works out to 39.9pts in 82 games in the NHL. But yes, he is older so you’d have to take that down a peg. But he has been on fire lately so let’s see where it winds up. 2ppg would be a nice up arrow.

    Interesting. My hope for him prior to being sent down was replicating Jordan Eberles 1.85 points per game in his draft +2 season. Thanks for this

  14. Wilde says:

    Can someone tell me if we can start Caggiula in the AHL next year, if you sign him to a two-wayer?

  15. GMB3 says:

    Wilde: I still stick by this

    Nuge – McDavid – Pulujarvi
    Slepy – Draisaitl – Ho-Sang
    Petan – Khaira – Strome
    pking – warm – bodies

    I’m not sure how we would acquire Ho-Sang considering Snow has those pictures from Chiarelli’s time at Harvard, but I think that would be a dynamite like offensively. Slepy has shown the ability to transport the puck by my eye, and that has huge value in its own. I think he’s the type of player who could really take off if afforded the right opportunity (think Reilly Smith) and we could finally have a “holy shit, how did we get this guy in the third round” type of player. Something the Oilers haven’t had in years.

    It’s been a damn shame that he spent so much of the past two seasons press boxed instead of at least developing his game in the AHL. Horrible development of a player with raw talent but some flaws in his ability to think the game on NA ice.

    Alexandre Burrows was what, 25 when he finally broke 30 points? It’s not too late for him to establish himself, and I hope it’s here. If not, I’d like to see him go somewhere else where he will get that opportunity. I’d be surprised if he resigned honestly

  16. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde,

    From what I gather Ho-Sang is not available until they know JT’s and Eberle’s future status.

    I think we might be overrating Petan. He doesn’t have the wheels–okay in that department. He might be coming here at the deadline, but I have seen a bunch of his play and never been overly impressed. I could be wrong.

  17. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    GMB3: Interesting. My hope for him prior to being sent down was replicating Jordan Eberles 1.85 points per game in his draft +2 season. Thanks for this

    Different types of player. Both small and skilled but Eberle looked more like a goal scorer even in those days, as you may recall. Yamamoto seems to be playmaker before goalscorer.

    Eberle is bigger but didn’t play that way. Yamamoto is the better skater, not close. If he makes it in the NHL he is going to have to carve a way with his skating, which he needs to keep pushing from very good to elite (at the NHL level–it’s elite in junior)

  18. Wilde says:

    GMB3: I’m not sure how we would acquire Ho-Sang considering Snow has those pictures from Chiarelli’s time at Harvard, but I think that would be a dynamite like offensively. Slepy has shown the ability to transport the puck by my eye, and that has huge value in its own. I think he’s the type of player who could really take off if afforded the right opportunity (think Reilly Smith) and we could finally have a“holy shit, how did we get this guy in the third round” type of player. Something the Oilers haven’t had in years.

    It’s been a damn shame that he spent so much of the past two seasons press boxed instead of at least developing his game in the AHL. Horrible development of a player with raw talent but some flaws in his ability to think the game on NA ice.

    Alexandre Burrows was what, 25 when he finally broke 30 points? It’s not too late for him to establish himself, and I hope it’s here. If not, I’d like to see him go somewhere else where he will get that opportunity. I’d be surprised if he resigned honestly

    I’d have a mix of the deadline haul, our own picks, centred around Benson as a package for Ho-Sang before giving up on the deal’s price.

    Present it as a nice ticket out of the fan/media circus surrounding Ho-Sang.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot,

    Some fans were dead set against trading RNH for Jones. Quoting things like Jones wasn’t killing the 3rd paining minutes like he should. There would have been some people upset had that trade happened.

    Good thing I’m on record saying he was killing his 3rd pairing minutes then.

    VGK – 2nd line: Running hot for sure, but the fancies back it up. Wilde nailed it in his post.

    Demers – Was behind Braun and Burns as RHD for SJS and was traded for Dillion to shore up the left side which had Vlasic, Irwin and Hannan. McLellan was also playing Burns up at wing more than WIlson liked and this forced him to play Burns on D.

    He was then a FA and signed with FLA who them proceeded to dump salary the next summer.

    2 trades. I’m surprised they don’t call him suitcase eh?

    Marincin – No, he was the best LHD on the team at the time.

  20. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wilde,

    From what I gather Ho-Sang is not available until they know JT’s and Eberle’s future status.

    I think we might be overrating Petan. He doesn’t have the wheels–okay in that department. He might be coming here at the deadline, but I have seen a bunch of his play and never been overly impressed. I could be wrong.

    The thing about Khaira+Strome at the third line right now, is the evidence this year shows that they don’t actually need much for a third player before they put up 55% shots and chances. There’s not a lot of pressure on Petan in that lineup, be as good as 35yo Mike Cammaleri. That’s the target.

  21. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde,

    Yeah I am liking the Khaira-Strome chem at the moment. Also like Sleppy with them. But he has a good right shot one timer. Why not try him for longer with a sweet passer like Drai is my thought–if we are budget conscious.

    On Petan we shall see. I don’t mind Cammy. He seems to make smart plays with little fanfare each night. Like what Russell should be for us if paid less. Haha.

  22. GMB3 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Different types of player. Both small and skilled but Eberle looked more like a goal scorer even in those days, as you may recall. Yamamoto seems to be playmaker before goalscorer.

    I do agree on the different player types but Yamamoto scored 42 in his draft year in 6 less games, and IIRC he was close to the league lead in even strength goals in the Dub last year.

    Yamamoto is the better skater but I’m not sure if he has the hands Eberle has, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets to the “hard areas” more than Eberle did in jr.

    FWIW one of my buddies younger brothers plays in the Dub and I asked him about Yamamoto in the summertime and he thought he was the most skilled player outside of Barzal.

    Another kid from my gym who played in the dub told me he thought Yamamoto would be a top 5 pick if he wasn’t 5’8. There’s a lot to like about him. Bit of a cross between Ghallagher and Ebs

  23. GMB3 says:

    Wilde,

    Haha into the fan/media circus in Edmonton doesn’t seem like it would be much of a respite.

  24. GMB3 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wilde,

    Yeah I am liking the Khaira-Strome chem at the moment. Also like Sleppy with them. But he has a good right shot one timer. Why not try him for longer with a sweet passer like Drai is my thought–if we are budget conscious.

    On Petan we shall see. I don’t mind Cammy. He seems to make smart plays with little fanfare each night. Like what Russell should be for us if paid less. Haha.

    I’m all for putting Slepy on his off wing with Draisaitl. If that’s where he found the success that got him drafted and captain of the Russian world junior team, why not let him play there. Iirc plenty of European players grew up playing on their off wing.

  25. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wilde,

    Yeah I am liking the Khaira-Strome chem at the moment. Also like Sleppy with them. But he has a good right shot one timer. Why not try him for longer with a sweet passer like Drai is my thought–if we are budget conscious.

    On Petan we shall see. I don’t mind Cammy. He seems to make smart plays with little fanfare each night. Like what Russell should be for us if paid less. Haha.

    Oh that’s not really a slight at Cammaleri, he’s been a good soldier here. Wouldn’t mind bringing him back specifically to compete for that spot with a Petan or Lemieux.

    I’m just saying that nobody really drags down 16+18, and I don’t believe Petan would.

  26. Wilde says:

    GMB3:
    Haha into the fan/media circus in Edmonton doesn’t seem like it would be much of a respite.

    Not for Ho-Sang, I’m saying the pitch is you’re saving Snow and his NHL+AHL coaches from it.

  27. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    GMB3:
    Wilde,

    Haha into the fan/media circus in Edmonton doesn’t seem like it would be much of a respite.

    Quoted for truth. And I do think the Anson Carter mentorship story is interesting. Josh has a little bit more to overcome in his case. Hope he makes it. He’s fun to watch.

  28. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde: Oh that’s not really a slight at Cammaleri, he’s been a good soldier here. Wouldn’t mind bringing him back specifically to compete for that spot with a Petan or Lemieux.

    I’m just saying that nobody really drags down 16+18, and I don’t believe Petan would.

    Yeah, I’m not saying Petan would drag them down. I don’t know. I could be wrong about Nic. He has a good, supportive family and plays hard–just not sure he has enough skill at this level. Strikes me as a tweener that isn’t really going to be a checker and might not score enough in the Show to stick in a Top 6 role. Cheering for him, though. Enjoyed my time in Penticton 2015 when the Petans were there.

  29. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    GMB3,

    I believe it. Tons of skill. I was referring more to his 1:2 goal to assist ratio this year, and even last year more assists. Eberle was more like 1:1 and seemed to be more of a goal scorer back in junior.

    More about player types than to say Yamamoto won’t make it because of that. I mean, Barzal had extreme ratios of assists to goals. Fooled a lot of people because of it.

  30. GMB3 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Yamamoto is the better skater, not close. If he makes it in the NHL he is going to have to carve a way with his skating, which he needs to keep pushing from very good to elite (at the NHL level–it’s elite in junior)

    If we look back at the NHL combine, it paints a pretty good picture of KY’s work ethic. Top 5 in both means and peak power output during the wingate test. Second in the agility test. Fourth in pull-ups. Tips in the VO2max.

    Interesting to see Petterson show up where he did during the Wingate test considering his biggest knock is his skating. I wonder what physical benchmark tests correlate the closest with peak skating speed and/or acceleration.

    Also worth noting is that hockey players are horrible jumpers.

  31. GMB3 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    GMB3,

    I believe it. Tons of skill. I was referring more to his 1:2 goal to assist ratio this year, and even last year more assists. Eberle was more like 1:1 and seemed to be more of a goal scorer back in junior.

    More about player types than to say Yamamoto won’t make it because of that. I mean, Barzal had extreme ratios of assists to goals. Fooled a lot of people because of it.

    Yeah I had no idea Barzal would score like this. Tbh I actually wasn’t as high on him as most here. I thought he looked like a small player who played on the perimeter while being a witch on the PP. shows what I know!

    You could very well be right with your take on Yamamoto in regards to G:A ratio. I just remember watching his highlight video after the draft and noticing him score quite a few goals one timing absolute bombs.

  32. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Yeah, I’m not saying Petan would drag them down. I don’t know. I could be wrong about Nic. He has a good, supportive family and plays hard–just not sure he has enough skill at this level. Strikes me as a tweener that isn’t really going to be a checker and might not score enough in the Show to stick in a Top 6 role. Cheering for him, though. Enjoyed my time in Penticton 2015 when the Petans were there.

    Yeah, I’ve over emphasised the individual Petan for sure, relative to what I actually mean. When I talk about Ho-Sang, I’m talking about specifically Ho-Sang. Whereas Petan is more ‘a Petan’ that could in reality be Leivo or Foegele or Cirelli or whoever you get the idea.

    Which is not to say that you misrepresented my writing, because I wrote it exactly the way you interpreted it for sure.

  33. Wilde says:

    GMB3: Yeah I had no idea Barzal would score like this. Tbh I actually wasn’t as high on him as most here. I thought he looked like a small player who played on the perimeter while being a witch on the PP. shows what I know!

    You could very well be right with your take on Yamamoto in regards to G:A ratio. I just remember watching his highlight video after the draft and noticing him score quite a few goals one timing absolute bombs.

    I think Yamamoto will end up being a goal-scorer in the NHL.

    The only NHL track we have to go on is his 9 game audition, in which he had a share of iSF, iSCF, and iHDCF per 60 relative to his on ice per 60’s that lines up with what you’d call a trigger guy in the NHL.

    Between having a shot, and the fact that should he blossom into an NHLer it’ll be on a team full of passers, I think he’ll likely be a 1:1 G/Aer.

  34. GMB3 says:

    Wilde: I think Yamamoto will end up being a goal-scorer in the NHL.

    The only NHL track we have to go on is his 9 game audition, in which he had a share of iSF, iSCF, and iHDCF per 60 relative to his on ice per 60’s that lines up with what you’d call a trigger guy in the NHL.

    Between having a shot, and the fact that should he blossom into an NHLer it’ll be on a team full of passers, I think he’ll likely be a 1:1 G/Aer.

    Need to find a way to dump Lucic’s contract before he scores 30 in the last year of his ELC.

    Hopelessly optimistic I know, but I do really like the pick and I think he could be a home run comparative to his draft slot. LT touted Tolvanen as an ideal target for McDavids future winger, and I was a little dissapointed we passed on him, but those are the breaks. At least KY is a better skater.

    I can’t believe how many people on this blog are down on him. He looked to have some early chem with McDavid. Good skater, creative in the offensive zone. He could be a good fit.

  35. GMB3 says:

    Took a tour through the Oilers prospect twitter and man Ostap Safin has the propensity for some highlight goals. During his recent tear he has scored some absolute beauties.

  36. GMB3 says:

    Safin has been in on 34.8% of his teams goals, putting his point per game pace into a bit more perspective playing on an abysmal team. 15th in SOG

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Canada takes a 1-0 lead on an ugly/lucky PP goal but the Czechs tie it up 16 seconds later.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whoa, now Team Canada re-takes the lead 12 second after the Czech’s tie it up.

    3 goals in 28 seconds.

  39. Wilde says:

    GMB3: Need to find a way to dump Lucic’s contract before he scores 30 in the last year of his ELC.

    Hopelessly optimistic I know, but I do really like the pick and I think he could be a home run comparative to his draft slot. LT touted Tolvanen as an ideal target for McDavids future winger, and I was a little dissapointed we passed on him, but those are the breaks. At least KY is a better skater.

    I can’t believe how many people on this blog are down on him. He looked to have some early chem with McDavid. Good skater, creative in the offensive zone. He could be a good fit.

    Preaching to the choir, I have made many, many posts defending Yamamoto.

    I was ambivalent, too, before I saw some of the misguided perceptions about him and his 9 games. Started making posts just for discussions sake. Now I’m a staunch supporter, mostly out of hobby, but have also grown fond of the prospect. I like to watch Spokane games for him, Anderson-Dolan, and Smith. Fun team, junior hockey is fun.

    GMB3:
    Safin has been in on 34.8% of his teams goals, putting his point per game pace into a bit more perspective playing on an abysmal team. 15th in SOG

    Safin is Benoit Pouliot.

    e: Breaking, Amanda Kessel is a babe.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Can someone tell me if we can start Caggiula in the AHL next year, if you sign him to a two-wayer?

    If he clears waivers.

    One-way vs. two-way contract means absolutely nothing with respect to waiver requirements.

    The only thing a one-way vs. two-way contract determines is the actual amount of physical money that the player makes if assigned to the AHL – that is all.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wilde,

    Yeah I am liking the Khaira-Strome chem at the moment. Also like Sleppy with them. But he has a good right shot one timer. Why not try him for longer with a sweet passer like Drai is my thought–if we are budget conscious.

    On Petan we shall see. I don’t mind Cammy. He seems to make smart plays with little fanfare each night. Like what Russell should be for us if paid less. Haha.

    Slepy has a good shot, absolutely – I’m not sure about one-time though – I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him connect on a good one-timer. The majority of his shots come off the rush.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    D. Roy with a beauty and Canada is up 3-1.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    Safin has been in on 34.8% of his teams goals, putting his point per game pace into a bit more perspective playing on an abysmal team. 15th in SOG

    And lets not forget, Safin is also a rookie in the Q and he’s being asked to play center quite a bit (his natural position is RW and he’s more productive as a right winger).

    His arrows are pointing straight up right now.

    Maksimov too – those are two guys that have great top 6 potential.

    They both might not make it, however, if they do, or if one of them does, I think we will be looking at a solid top 6 goal scorer.

  44. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: If he clears waivers.

    One-way vs. two-way contract means absolutely nothing with respect to waiver requirements.

    The only thing a one-way vs. two-way contract determines is the actual amount of physical money that the player makes if assigned to the AHL – that is all.

    Right, okay.

    But, as an RFA, can the team sign him to a contract, and assign him to the AHL before the season starts without the waiver process?

  45. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: And lets not forget, Safin is also a rookie in the Q and he’s being asked to play center quite a bit (his natural position is RW and he’s more productive as a right winger).

    His arrows are pointing straight up right now.

    Maksimov too – those are two guys that have great top 6 potential.

    They both might not make it, however, if they do, or if one of them does, I think we will be looking at a solid top 6 goal scorer.

    I think they’re only potential ‘top 6’ if we’re talking about McDavid or Drai’s carrying them.

    If you look at real top 6 prospects in their +1 right now, there’s a gap.

    5v5 p/gp via prospect-stats:

    Vilardi: 1.27
    Suzuki: 0.92
    Thomas: 0.90
    ——
    Maksimov: 0.71

    Also, this Finnish kid is worth a late pick, he’s 5’9″ undrafted, but the exact same age as Nick Suzuki and is putting up .98.

    Could play on the AHL team starting next fall, AFAIK. Would be a good pickup.

  46. GMB3 says:

    Wilde: I think they’re only potential ‘top 6’ if we’re talking about McDavid or Drai’s carrying them.

    If you look at real top 6 prospects in their +1 right now, there’s a gap.

    5v5 p/gp via prospect-stats:

    Vilardi: 1.27
    Suzuki:0.92
    Thomas: 0.90
    ——
    Maksimov: 0.71

    Also, this Finnish kid is worth a late pick, he’s 5’9″ undrafted, but the exact same age as Nick Suzuki and is putting up .98.

    Could play on the AHL team starting next fall, AFAIK. Would be a good pickup.

    Last time I checked he was just above .81 points per game excluding points with the man advantage. I think OP means that they have great offensive potential relative to their draft position.

  47. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Slepy has a good shot, absolutely – I’m not sure about one-time though – I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him connect on a good one-timer.The majority of his shots come off the rush.

    Hmm–maybe he hasn’t unleashed it in a while, but it was really good in Penticton (old news I know). Small backswing, heavy, accurate. I compared it favourably at the time to Yakupov’s in that Yak would miss far too often while taking enormous backswings. Selpy’s was close to a hybrid snap/slap shot and it was effective.

    here is what I wrote as a guest writer and photographer for Bruce McCurdy:

    “Anton Slepyshev was, for me, a pleasant surprise. I was hoping for good things and I saw him better than expected. He has terrific hands and strong attacking instincts, evidenced by his outstanding one-timer on a sublime feed from LaLeggia. Two things I loved about how he scored: one was that he slipped away from his defender, moving not just toward the net, but away from the puck carrier, putting distance away from the defender, whose natural tendency is to keep an eye on the puck and therefore gravitate ever so slightly towards LaLeggia. The second was that his release was so quick. He did not take a full wind-up. A 2/3 swing in a flash and he found twine cleanly. (Nail Yakupov- take note on both counts.) I thought Slepyshev showed great poise on the power play in period 2, and I wanted to see him get time with McDavid at some point. He may be a year away from the NHL, but this viewer is excited for his eventual arrival.”

    Full link here, where I said Nurse was going to be a star
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/darnell-nurse-stood-out-like-the-evening-star-on-a-still-desert-night-guest-poster-george-nobechi-reports-from-penticton-3

    I was wrong on a bunch of other things for sure…like Eetu D2

  48. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Slepy’s lack of showing off his one-timer is directly related to him playing so little on his off wing, I think..

    We’ll see it more if he gets more reps on LW.

  49. GMB3 says:

    Weird stat of the day. Bill Guerin had 85 points in 85 regular season games the year he got traded to Boston from Edmonton. Boston must have had a few games in hand when he got traded there. I wonder who holds the record for playing the most games in an 82 game season.

  50. Wilde says:

    I’m thinking about Dale Tallon’s fuckery, again.

    I wonder if the 2016 Draft crop from Florida is a good place to raid?

    Tom Rowe was named GM of the Panthers on May 16th, 2016, and the NHL Entry Draft was held shortly after, 24th-25th of June.

    I wonder if he was already grumbling about the selections, and now emotionally associates them with the first decisions of the computer boys that replaced him, and tarnished his franchise.

    R1, #23: Henrik Borgstrom.

    A Finnish kid, drafted before a slew of Americans and future WJC Canadians. How could they, Dale? Trade him for some picks and pick some kids who play the game the right way. (Tallon braintrusts almost always pick CHLers or Americans in R1, Crouse, Toews, Hayes, Skille Tippett, Gudbranson, Huberdeau, Barker, Olsen, Beach)

    He’s 40 pts in 30 games in U. of Denver, that’s an NHLe of 43.7.

    I’m obviously just speculating here, but what would you give up?

    I’d start with Benson. Maybe he’s dumber than that, Caggiula and a few picks?

  51. rickithebear says:

    GMB3:
    Vollmans NHLE does not factor for age variance.
    Desjardins origional NHLE were built for age variance.
    Based translation for 1 st day of draft eligibility sept16
    And sept15 1 year later.
    Volman,s NHLE has as much as a 67% (.5/.3) to 150% (.75/.3) error in draft year.
    Quite silly that they look at a max 2% error in desjardins age based NHLE.
    Yet they ignore the 67 to 150% error from not taking into account age.
    A prime example of the failure of theoretical analytics over empirical.
    Concentrate on a single tree and ignore the forest.

    Draft year (17yr) for chl is .500 to .75 of chl production .25 range
    Draft +1 (18 yr) .400 to .500 of chl production .10 range
    Draft +2 (19yr) .350 to .400 of chl production .05 range
    Draft +3 (20yr) .330 to .35 of chl production. .03 range

    Yamamoto sept 29 birth age factor each season is (14/365) =.0384
    Draft (.0384 x .25) + .500 = .510 not .29 or .30 70 % error
    65gm 42g 99p
    Age NHLE ((42/65) x .510) x 82 = 27G; ((99/65) x .510) x 82gm = 64p

    Draft +1 (.0384 x.10) + .400 = .404
    31gm 17g 52p
    Age NHLE ((17/31) x .404) x82 = 18g; ((52/31) x .404) x 82) = 56p

    Like Lowetide early on we both agreed that even and SH production is most tranlateable.
    His 2 seasons suggest 20 evg 41 evp

  52. rickithebear says:

    Never thought to show Volman,s error range by year
    Draft (.5/.3) 67% to (.75/.3) 150%
    Draft +1 (.4/.3) 33% to 67%
    Draft +2 (.35/.3) 17% to 33% error
    Draft +3 (.32/.3) 7% to 17%
    Volmans best accuracy is 7% error
    Desjardins is 2-3% error all 4 chl years.

  53. Pouzar says:

    Mike Cammalleri? Come on guys aim higher than that. Love the player 5 years ago but he’s done now.

  54. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Slepy has a good shot, absolutely – I’m not sure about one-time though – I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him connect on a good one-timer.The majority of his shots come off the rush.

    He does have a one timer but that’s a play that goes to die in EDM.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: Right, okay.

    But, as an RFA, can the team sign him to a contract, and assign him to the AHL before the season starts without the waiver process?

    Of course they can sign him to a contract, they will need to if they want him to play in the organization.

    No, they cannot assign him to the AHL without waivers at any point.

  56. rickithebear says:

    I just realized volman,s is the ultimate corporate get it done guy.
    Give the people a simplified picture or process.
    Accuracy be dammed!
    They will not realize the error.

  57. rickithebear says:

    Wilde:
    You might want to look at talon,s assets acquired before he left chicgo.
    Look at that repetitive groups goal dif.
    Look at the players gone from the first cup win.
    Look at the goal diff bowman replaced them with.

    Then look at what Florida acquired under him
    And what happened to the team in one year without him.
    They had 5 top 60 HD dmen when they moved him from gm.

  58. godot10 says:

    Wilde: There’s plenty of stuff I disagree with in this post, but it’s not my argument.

    This part though, I want to shed some light on because I’ve seen some stuff about luck regarding the Knights and I think it’s bailing out the supreme idiocy of Dale Tallon too much for my liking.

    Yes, Karlsson’s individually shooting hot. But here’s the whole line:

    Marshessault – Smith – Karlsson

    4.25 GF/60, 11.76 SH%

    Here’s some other dynamite 2nd units:

    Barzal – Eberle

    4.02 GF/60, 10.80 SH%

    Malkin – Kessel

    3.59 GF/60, 9.33 SH%

    Point – Palat

    3.91 GF/60, 11.50 SH%

    The conclusion here is that 11.76 is both not totally insane, but even if you bump them down to 10% it spits out 3.61 GF/60, which is still incredible.

    Marshessault is a real, legitimate superstar. Reilly Smith is a great complimentary top sixer.

    Both were given away by a respected, veteran GM to protect a third pairing defenseman and Nick Bjugstad.

    Wasn’t it also to protect Reimer?

  59. godot10 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Sheng-Peng/George-McPhee-Explains-Ryan-Reaves-Trade/244/91234

    McPhee’s comments on the Reaves acquisition

    So part of the benefit of the deal was to keep Brassard out of the Western Conference, and probably out of the division (St. Louis). More immediate concerns than the Stanley Cup final.

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca