G64 2017-18: Predators at Oilers

The auditions so far (since the deadline) have been gifted to Anton Slepyshev (with Connor McDavid) and Ty Rattie (Leon Draisaitl). Also worth mentioning is ‘the soft parade’ line that featured Pontus Aberg, Ryan Strome and Jesse Puljujarvi, a trio who had some success out of the box in San Jose on Tuesday night. Once Nuge gets back, Kassian too, maybe we’ll see opportunities for Jujhar Khaira to play on a more prominent line.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

 WINDS OF MARCH, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 7-8-0, goal differential 0 (14 points)
  • March 2017: 9-3-1, goal differential +15 (19 points)
  • March 2018: 0-0-0, goal differential 0 (0 points)
  • March 1, 2016: Edmonton 2, Buffalo 1 (OT) (Source)
  • March 4, 2017: Edmonton 4, Detroit 3 (Source)

I’ll delete the March records for 2016 and 2017 teams in tomorrow’s post and we’ll see how things roll out. Both of those teams were fairly successful in their months, with the 15-16 team delivering 22 percent of its win total. Last year’s team was on fire during the month.

AFTER 63, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 22-34-7, goal differential -47 (51 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 33-22-8, goal differential +16 (74 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 27-32-4, goal differential -32 (58 points)
  • February 28, 2016: Edmonton 3, NY Islanders 1 (Source)
  • February 28, 2017: Edmonton 2, St. Louis 1 (Source)

The question now is can this team get to 35-37 wins and will it be enough. The 15-16 team would end with 70 points, 9-9-1 in its final 19. If this year’s team can match that total, the final record will be 36-41-5, 77 points. That would represent a 26-point drop year over year.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 0-0-0, 0 points in 0 games 

A lot of what we should be seeing now is auditioning of the kids, but the lineups currently feature Milan Lucic as well as Anton Slepyshev. Perhaps the team is waiting for Nuge to return.

THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT

Back in the summer, I ran the RE series and in all honestly was pretty aggressive about the kids, the “McDavid” cluster. With all that has gone wrong, how has this group performed against expectations?

This is the original graph, I just borrowed it from August. There are 93 goals projected here, that’s a monster total. How close are these men to my original predictions?

  • Connor McDavid is 63gp, 28-47-75 (1.19). He is off my prediction by 12 points and that’s about right considering the challenges this team has had providing 97 with quality linemates. He is right on track with expected goals (28) after 63 games. At his current pace, McDavid’s final line will be 82gp, 36-62-98. Incredible numbers from a nightmare scenario.
  • Leon Draisaitl is 59gp, 20-37-57 (0.97). He is off my prediction by six points, impressive considering his concussion issues and long recovery while playing. His expected goals is one over my projection (19) after 63 games. Leon gets criticized a lot but the boxcars are quality this season.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is 46gp, 10-7-17 (0.37). He is off my prediction by just three points and that’s damned good considering his support role on the team. His expected goals total is where it should be and the young Finn is covering the bet.
  • Anton Slepyshev is 33gp, 5-4-9 (0.27). He is off my projection by three points and coming on strong. He is one goal shy (actually .65 of a goal) of my expectation so the big issue for him has been injury and usage.
  • Darnell Nurse is 63gp, 6-14-20 (0.32). He is ahead of my projection by two points and has already exceeded by games prediction. Nurse is enjoying a fine year.

Those 93 goals predicted above (over 82 games) would have us at 71 goals. The current total from the group above is 69, meaning the McDavid cluster is two actual goals behind the projections. The department of youth didn’t let this team down. It was the old, overpaid bunch. Again. Tomorrow: The prime cluster.

Oilers are 27-32-4 and were 10-14-2 on December 1. Since then, Edmonton is 17-18-2 and that includes some truly pitiful work around Christmas. You can’t find an encouraging word anywhere, and I get that this has been a very disappointing season. However, if this team can win some games down the stretch then I do think there’s a story to tell. On the other hand, a long losing streak and we’re probably looking at general manager Gretzky and coach Quenneville.

Every so often someone will ask me my opinion on the current state of management/coaching. As you know, this blog isn’t so much worried about the author’s opinion as chronicling the events of this crazy train that is the Edmonton Oilers.

That said, I do believe in answering your questions so here goes. For me, when a general manager is hired, the general rule is five years to see what kind of change occurred. In this case, I’m not certain the Oilers can afford the current regime. Peter Chiarelli’s ‘death by paper cut’ theme also works in describing his work, and at this point the club can’t afford more bleeding. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Oscar Klefbom remain on the roster, but for how much longer? My opinion is that it is unwise to continue along this track. The Oilers still have enormous gifts, incredibly. With the understanding the Peter Chiarelli is likely to be aggressive again this summer, and that a leopard doesn’t change its spots, I believe a more conservative hand should take the wheel.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Nashville in town, Oilers need wins. Can they get one tonight?
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. Trade deadline review.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Possible changes in Edmonton and Chicago.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

624 Responses to "G64 2017-18: Predators at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. stush18 says:

    I get people are upset at Lucic, but I don’t think honk tho his is even exactly the game to Ben upset about the coaches playing him.

    Best game in a while, imo.

  2. OmJo says:

    Pouzar:
    Aberg was good tonight as well.
    He’s fast, can shoot, and make a play.
    Moar of that please.

    My first time seeing him play tonight and I like what I saw. Very fast. Wasn’t afraid to get physical, either.

  3. rickithebear says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    The NHL is a one player league. Hint: it’s the goalie.

    You do know that Dpairs set the mean save% a goalie perform as around.
    Then you measure a goalie relative to the established mean.
    Based on shot density, Elliot had a .901 save% mean established by the Hamilton- giordano dpair.
    Elliott had a .939 save% .o38 above the mean.

    Klefbom and Nurse destroy the base mean.

  4. Pouzar says:

    OmJo: My first time seeing him play tonight and I like what I saw. Very fast. Wasn’t afraid to get physical, either.

    Yeah I like his gritensity. Not afraid to get dirty for sure.

  5. Rebilled says:

    Pouzar,

    ‘Accountability starrrrrts now!’

    -TMac September 2018

  6. GMB3 says:

    stush18:
    I get people are upset at Lucic, but I don’t think honk tho his is even exactly the game to Ben upset about the coaches playing him.

    Best game in a while, imo.

    ??

  7. GMB3 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: Because another high draft pick is the answer?

    It’s not not the answer

  8. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    GMB3: ??

    stush must have a good stash

  9. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    GMB3: It’s not not the answer

    Someone else was saying that.

  10. BONE207 says:

    Well…after that loss, which was expected, the next 4 games look more winnable. Don’t they???

  11. OmJo says:

    GMB3: It’s not not the answer

    Great minds think alike?

  12. OmJo says:

    Congrats to David Poile. Winningest GM in NHL history.

  13. Extend Russell says:

    rickithebear: You do know that Dpairs set the mean save% a goalie perform as around.
    Then you measure a goalie relative to the established mean.
    Based on shot density, Elliot had a .901 save% mean established by the Hamilton- giordano dpair.
    Elliott had a .939 save% .o38 above the mean.

    Klefbom and Nurse destroy the base mean.

    Is that a systems problem or just poor decision making in the heat of a play.
    Asking for a slightly despondent overly attached friend..
    Also
    This team really misses Larsson
    Hall was good but I know why the gm made the move.
    Disappointed it cost Hall still though considering his year

  14. Extend Russell says:

    GMB3: It’s not not the answer

    Draft picks isn’t the answer
    Free agents isn’t the answer
    Trading for team needs isn’t the answer
    Scoring first isn’t the answer
    Cheering for this team isn’t the answer

    Has someone from the front office got a hold of Alan Iverson?
    When I was a lad he was the answer
    Just don’t mention practice in front of him
    Still realllly sensitive on that one..

  15. stush18 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: stush must have a good stash

    HAHA Jesus I wish.

    I’m just using woodguys phone again

  16. Professor Q says:

    smellyglove:
    Kucherov looks like he is out for a bit with an upper body injury.

    Connor w. 2 points, only five points behind for the scoring race. Does he do it?

    Sure. Why not? But with Kucherov and Malkin racking up Power Play Points like no tomorrow (30 each to McDavid’s 15) it’ll be tough. Giroux is also picking up speed, and has 30 PPP as well. Bounce-back year indeed. Gaudreau and Wheeler are high as well (23 and 33, respectively).

    Even if McDavid’s total is more impressive in that sense, being so close to those two leaders (and close trailers) with more Even Strength contribution. If Edmonton’s PP was actually dangerous then maybe he’d have 15-20 extra points and be the distant leader. Maybe more!

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    I will sure as heck take an newly drafted elite talent this June – answer or not.

  18. Mr. D. says:

    Klefbom destroying a defensive Stat should show the stat has 0 credibility.

    rickithebear: You do know that Dpairs set the mean save% a goalie perform as around.
    Then you measure a goalie relative to the established mean.
    Based on shot density, Elliot had a .901 save% mean established by the Hamilton- giordano dpair.
    Elliott had a .939 save% .o38 above the mean.

    Klefbom and Nurse destroy the base mean.

  19. Wilde says:

    Mr. D.,

    He means it in the bad way.

  20. Wilde says:

    I think Klef’s a star, though. Shut him and Rej down. Run Nurse, Russell, Auvitu down the left, call up Gryba and I bet you 77 and 2 will deliver next fall.

    If the Coaching staff won’t pull the goalie because ‘we can’t come back anyways’ then put the guys on IR(is Lucic hurt too?).

    This one foot on both sides of the line stuff has gotta go.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Last night (and his month off) shows how important Larsson is to this lineup.

    Yes, we can talk about Larsson without regard to the Hart Trophy candidate playing in Jersey.

    Larsson is huge for this team – he makes the defensive group, as a group, much better. He is hard to play against, nasty and a plus defender who can transition the puck adequately and is smart when activating offensively.

    I look forward to seeing Bear against a lesser team in the Rangers on Saturday night but, ultimately, look forward to getting Larsson back in the lineup.

    If we could somehow find a legit 1RD to allow Larsson to play 2RD – that would be an amazing defensive set up. That’s a fantasy though and another 1/2RD that can move the puck and share the top 4 duties with Larsson would go a long long ways.

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    OmJo:
    Congrats to David Poile. Winningest GM in NHL history.

    As in “Wiiiiiinnnning!”…..Tiger Blood and all.

    David Poile is in the Taylor Hall Jordan Eberle camp of winning. NEVER won anything…..

    Justin Schultz has won two nore cups than Poile.

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    I asked this question a few days ago. To what extent does a team take on the personality of its coach? If the coach is always passive and doesn’t bring any fire and passion to his position as leader, does that filter through to the players. I saw Cooper absolutely lose it on the bench last night and have never seen any emotion like that from our coach.

    It seems to me this team plays well and then completely loses its composure over singular events. If the coach doesn’t believe in his players, will the players believe in themselves?

    I’m probably over thinking this and looking for reasons to distrust the coach.

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca