G67 2017-18: Islanders at Oilers

Don’t let the sun catch you crying. On November 1, 2008, I wrote a brief entry on this blog, pointing out a fabulous evening for Edmonton’s latest first-round pick and trumpeting the team’s scouting director: Jordan Eberle has a hat-trick tonight, and as of now his WHL stats read 17gp, 14-12-26, +4. That would put him in a first place tie in goals and tied for second in points. Stu MacGregor, you magnificent bastard. Almost 10 years later, it is still confounding things worked out as they did in those seasons. Opportunity missed doesn’t begin to describe what happened to the Edmonton Oilers. The insistence on a ‘five-year plan’ and lack of balance and urgency have combined to sewer a generation of young talents. When will it end?

THE ATHLETIC!

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CROSSING JORDAN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 2-1-0, goal differential +2 (4 points)
  • March 2017: 2-0-1, goal differential +4 (4 points)
  • March 2018: 1-2-0, goal differential -2 (2 points)
  • March 6, 2016: Edmonton 2, Winnipeg 1 (Source)
  • March 12, 2017: Montreal 4, Edmonton 1 (Source)

Edmonton has a chance to get back to even in March tonight, the Islanders are beyond desperate at this point and it should be war. I watched Calgary flatten the Sabres last night, that should be the kind of effort we see from New York this evening. It could get ugly, mostly because both teams are flawed. Danger, 1980’s straight ahead!

AFTER 66, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 25-34-7, goal differential -40 (57 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 36-22-8, goal differential +21 (80 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 28-34-4, goal differential -34 (60 points)
  • March 4, 2016: Columbus 6, Edmonton 3 (Source)
  • March 10, 2017: Pittsburgh 3, Edmonton 2 (SO) (Source)

The 15-16 season is not much of a hurdle, but this year’s Oilers have been unable to wrestle it to the ground. The schedule isn’t easy, we’ll see how long it takes the team to reach 70 points (the final total for that 2015-16 club). A long winning streak, still eluding the Oilers after 66 games, needs to arrive soon before the season runs out of track.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 1-2-0, 2 points in three games

How many wins do you see for the rest of March? I have Carolina, Los Angeles, Columbus and Vancouver. Can Edmonton get five more wins this month?

PROJECTED 18-19 50-MAN ROSTER

  • This is the projected 50-man before the RFA cull. I expect Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Ryan Strome, Iiro Pakarinen, Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula to return.
  • I don’t expect RFA’s Ben Betker, Laurent Brossoit, Braden Christoffer, Kyle Platzer and Patrick Russell to return.
  • Among UFA’s (not listed here), I expect Edmonton to sign Mike Cammalleri, Keegan Lowe and Dillon Simpson.
  • Among UFA’s, I don’t expect the following to return: Joey Laleggia, Grayson Downing, Ty Rattie, Brian Ferlin, Yohann Auvitu and Mark Fayne.
  • If all of this happens as predicted, Edmonton will be at 40-men on the 50-man. Plenty of room for summer.

PROJECTED PETER CHIARELLI ROSTER

  • If we assume Nuge and Klefbom are out (Peter Chiarelli’s established “offload one young piece a summer” gets elevated) and Faulk+Paciretty return, we’re looking at the lineup above. The cap room is actually $2.5M due to the Benoit Pouliot buyout and all numbers via CapFriendly.
  • I wouldn’t make either trade but that’s kind of what the combination of current management and assets available suggest we’ll see this summer. We could see the first-round pick or Jesse Puljujarvi dealt but there are cap issues there, too. Trading Nuge allows Pacioretty, trading Klefbom allows Faulk/Nurse long-term extension.
  • The defense looks good, goaltending should recover (I’ve no issue betting on Talbot again but a more substantial backup is a good idea) and the wingers are better here.
  • Still, Edmonton will need Jesse Puljujarvi to emerge as a 20-goal man (that seems plausible), Kailer Yamamoto to play a complementary role (less plausible but possible) on a high-end skill line and for Milan Lucic to recover to his 20-goal level.
  • I remain convinced, and have suggested, a long, boring summer of smaller, meticulous procurement is the better way. I think the Oilers can afford to go out and grab one major piece (ideally a scoring winger) without breaking the bank and further impacting the team’s overall balance and depth. It should be, needs to be, a measured summer.

GOD’S FLASHLIGHT (5X5/60 SCORING FORWARDS)

  1. Connor McDavid 2.95
  2. Leon Draisaitl 2.55
  3. Mike Cammalleri 2.02
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.74
  5. Jujhar Khaira 1.60
  6. Ryan Strome 1.59
  7. Milan Lucic 1.53
  8. Jesse Puljujarvi 1.46
  9. Anton Slepyshev 1.44
  10. Zack Kassian 1.27
  11. Pontus Aberg 1.17
  12. Drake Caggiula 1.14
  13. Iiro Pakarinen .7

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Thursday, beginning at 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Jordan Eberle memories, what can the Oilers gain from the final 15 games?
  • Rob Vollman, ESPN & NHL.com. What is the trade value of Oscar Klefbom at this time?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Who among Oilers players is likely in play this summer?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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217 Responses to "G67 2017-18: Islanders at Oilers"

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  1. v4ance says:

    Chiarelli should be relieved simply because he can’t get full value when dealing with other managers or agents in trades or during contract negotiations. As posters, we are frequently accused of overvaluing our assets but as a GM, Chiarelli has been on the other end of the spectrum and undervalued our assets. The needs of the organization would have been better served if he had overvalued our assets as much as many of us in here. When offered bad trades, Chiarelli should have just moved on instead of shrugging and accepting the best offer at the time.

    Bad coaches can hurt their teams one game at a time. Bad GMs throttle their organizations for years after they are gone with bad moves.

    If I had a line to Katz, I’d tell him that whomever is in the GMs chair going into the offseason, the team should make no major moves at all. Any proposed trades involving Nuge or Klefbom would be lateral moves at best and critically damaging at worst. The best option would be to ride out the next year, burning one more year off the bad contracts and then trading or buying out them and keeping our younger talent.

  2. smellyglove says:

    Hello Lowetide community,

    I’m thinking of embarking on an NHL statistics project, but I’d like to collect feedback from this group before proceeded. Nothing fancy, just an intuitive way to look at boxcars:

    Do you follow a team and ever want to check up on how ex-players are doing? I do. Normally that means I look at the Oilers roster for a given year and manually click or look up players who I know departed. For instance, this year saw the departure of players like Eberle, Hendrickson, Pouliot, Desharnais. It’s kind of annoying when I just want to (from time to time) see how the ex-players are doing. Opening a bunch of different windows, and I may forget that players have moved on (trades, free agents, etc.).

    I’m thinking of creating a site that just shows a list of players that left a team, with their stats for the current season (or, perhaps in a more comprehensive version, stats for multiple years following moving on).
    This is just mainly out of personal interest, but also as a resource for the hockey community.

    So…
    Is this something anyone else would find useful?
    Yes or no, is there a variation of it you would find more useful?
    Does anyone have suggestions for where to scrape simple NHL stats on a daily basis?

  3. flyfish1168 says:

    I am heading to the game tonight. Not sure if I should wear my Eberle jersey one last time.

    LT I find your 2018/19 possible opening night line up interesting. But I for sure is not in favour of some of your moves. Pacioretty I’m not in favour of after seeing what Bergevin request is. We cannot lose another trade period. We would be selling low on any RNH and Klef due to their injury this year. I think a bounce back is possible. Faulk, I would like but we can’t give much up since he is a UFA in a couple of years. PC or the next GM needs to get out from those 3 NMC contracts. At least get out from one each year for the next 3 summers. Lucic for Loui Eriksson should be explored. JMHO

  4. Woogie63 says:

    v4ance:
    Chiarelli should be relieved simply because he can’t get full value when dealing with other managers or agents in trades or during contract negotiations.As posters, we are frequently accused of overvaluing our assets but as a GM, Chiarelli has been on the other end of the spectrum and undervalued our assets.The needs of the organization would have been better served if he had overvalued our assets as much as many of us in here.When offered bad trades, Chiarelli should have just moved on instead of shrugging and accepting the best offer at the time.

    Bad coaches can hurt their teams one game at a time.Bad GMs throttle their organizations for years after they are gone with bad moves.

    If I had a line to Katz, I’d tell him that whomever is in the GMs chair going into the offseason, the team should make no major moves at all.Any proposed trades involving Nuge or Klefbom would be lateral moves at best and critically damaging at worst.The best option would be to ride out the next year, burning one more year off the bad contracts and then trading or buying out them and keeping our younger talent.

    Scrivens, Gernat,, Jokinen, LB like your comment

  5. anjinsan says:

    v4ance,

    Well said, well written, thanks Dude.

    I want to echo the point about bad GMs throttling a team for years going forward. It isn’t just that Chiarelli hurt the team. He did it for a long time to come. Man, I so admire Cheveldayoff in contrast to Chiarelli. Oiler rebuilding begins again once Chiarelli is fired. I so look forward to reading the reading the headline: Oilers terminate Peter Chiarelli.

    Today, the Islander 2nd line visiteth and is on full display for all the see.

    Going forward, McDavid will try to superman through for a bit longer, but he’s not going to crucify his career. To improve the team now I don’t see any other way than to hemorrhage future picks. The disappointment of having to handle squandered opportunity this way makes me want to look away.

  6. godot10 says:

    Why was Mitch Callahan “gold” under Todd Nelson in Grand Rapids, and is “gold-plated tungsten” under Gerry Fleming in Bakersfield?

  7. godot10 says:

    This would be the absolutely worst time to consider Max Pacioretty. He has one year left on his contract, and about to turn 30, and falling into the abyss like Lucic is imminent.

    So if he has one good year with Connor, one has to pay him a fortune, and the abyss for a 30-something player looms.

    Pittsburgh tells us, one goes and finds young cheap speedy wingers, like Sheary and Guentzel and Rust.

    Trading mid-twenty something players just to enter their prime is dumb. Petry, Schultz, Hall, Eberle, Stoll, Greene, Ptikanen…the Oilers have been doing it consistently through the decade of darkness. Up next, Klefbom and Nugent-Hopkins

  8. prefonmich says:

    v4ance,

    Well said. Given Nicholsons reassuring speech about them having a plan and that plan still includes Chiarelli so far as we can see. How many more trades where he loses value is he allowed before the higher ups recognize what a disaster of a gm this guy is? Nuge? Klefbom? Drai?

  9. VanIsleOil says:

    smellyglove:
    Hello Lowetide community,

    I’m thinking of embarking on an NHL statistics project, but I’d like to collect feedback from this group before proceeded. Nothing fancy, just an intuitive way to look at boxcars:

    Do you follow a team and ever want to check up on how ex-players are doing? I do. Normally that means I look at the Oilers roster for a given year and manually click or look up players who I know departed. For instance, this year saw the departure of players like Eberle, Hendrickson, Pouliot, Desharnais. It’s kind of annoying when I just want to (from time to time) see how the ex-players are doing. Opening a bunch of different windows, and I may forget that players have moved on (trades, free agents, etc.).

    I’m thinking of creating a site that just shows a list of players that left a team, with their stats for the current season (or, perhaps in a more comprehensive version, stats for multiple years following moving on).
    This is just mainly out of personal interest, but also as a resource for the hockey community.

    So…
    Is this something anyone else would find useful?
    Yes or no, is there a variation of it you would find more useful?
    Does anyone have suggestions for where to scrape simple NHL stats on a daily basis?

    Sort of like keeping tabs on all your exes. I prefer to look forward with what we have rather than rehashing the what ifs. This Barzal watch as though he he would have absolutely been an Oiler is crazy. Just my $.02

  10. Pink Socks says:

    At this point in the season I am just cheering like hell for the Hawks to keep losing. The maybe just maybe Coach Q gets the hammer.

  11. dustrock says:

    I agree about a hard pass on Patch.

    I still think the D needs improvement and I think it’s notable when we can see a young player like Bear who is out of his element in his first 2 NHL games, nevertheless shows puck skills in transition and PP that most of our D don’t really have.

  12. OmJo says:

    smellyglove,

    I’d find this useful! But it sounds like a lot of work for only one person to do.

  13. Pink Socks says:

    VanIsleOil: Sort of like keeping tabs on all your exes. I prefer to look forward with what we have rather than rehashing the what ifs. This Barzal watch as though he he would have absolutely been an Oiler is crazy.Just my$.02

    You mean you don’t stalk your exes on social media ?

  14. Oilman99 says:

    I’m not sure how your projected lineup makes the team any better then it is now. Still no bonafide right winger ,and Nuge for Pacoretti is iffy at best,there is no guarantee Patch is not on the decline. I don’t Caggulia has show enough based the opportunities given ,that it is worth bringing him back,I think there are ufa’s out there that can show more offence than him. Faulk does not look like an upgrade if you look at the way he has played this year, Kleffy is still learning the game,and I would suggest he will out shine Faulk next year.

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hockey is such a mysterious sport. When we played the Islanders in New York, Talbot stood on his head to win us the game. I think it was by far his best game of the year. The Isles were hot at the time and were absolutely dominating. It may have been one of the most dominating performances I’ve seen against the Oil this year and there have been plenty. Fast forward a few months later and the Isles are out of the playoffs and playing very mediocre. What gives? Why such a huge drop in play? Frick, this sport is hard to figure out.

  16. OmJo says:

    VanIsleOil: Sort of like keeping tabs on all your exes. I prefer to look forward with what we have rather than rehashing the what ifs. This Barzal watch as though he he would have absolutely been an Oiler is crazy.Just my$.02

    From what I understand it wouldn’t just be for the Oilers?

    It could be useful for more than just stalking your ex. It would make keeping track of players a lot more convenient.

    We know how Schultz, Dubnyk, Eberle etc got better once they left the team. Would be cool to see if that isn’t exclusively a “Because Oilers” thing lol.

  17. OmJo says:

    godot10:
    Why was Mitch Callahan “gold” under Todd Nelson in Grand Rapids, and is “gold-plated tungsten” under Gerry Fleming in Bakersfield?

    Whoever takes a shot at Todd Nelson as a head coach is going to find a real gem of a HC.

    Damn shame it won’t be us. Not only do we develop players for the league, we develop coaches too now!

  18. Pink Socks says:

    On the D:

    Kris Russel does some of the most inexplicable things on the ice that costs the team goals. I will never forget the third Coyote goal the other night with him flailing around on the ice in front of Talbot for what seemed like eternity. If PC can undo this mistake and make him disappear, and upgrade him, I will forgive him for signing #4 last summer.

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Faulk
    Sekera – Benning

    This is a playoff group if Sekera is healthy and Benning matures in year 3.

    On the F:

    Zack Kassian has not been horrible, certainly the least of the concerns up front. I am curious though why the HC does not give him a longer look in the top 9. A 4RW cannot make $2m. Kassian needs to be in the top 9, or on another roster. This is another example of HC and GM not being aligned, and the HC not properly deploying his roster. IMO, Zack Kassian = Tom Wilson. Both big, good skaters, slightly crazy, and some offensive potential if given the opportunity. Wilson is thriving in Washington now playing on a line with Ovechkin. Kassian has the speed to keep up with McDavid, is it his IQ that prevents him from getting a look? Kass has also looked good in limited time with Lucic and Draisaitl, but he keeps ending up playing with Letestu/Pakarinen/Caggiula, or now spending time as a healthy scratch. I’m starting it, #FreeKass

  19. flea says:

    Maybe Chiarelli is a patsy put in place by the NHL to intentionally sewer the McDavid Oilers.

    McDavid would be worth so much more to the NHL in a big US market. Think the New York Rangers, LA Kings, a market like that. (Not suprisingly – Gretzy’s two other teams)

    It’s a bit of a conspiracy theory but it would explain the bad officiating and one sided reviews as well.

    If the Oilers have another bad season next year, I fully expect to start to hear the trade winds blowing. He might stay one more season after that, but if the Oilers can’t get competitive quick, it’s game over for McDavid in Edmonton. The NHL won’t let him rot here. There is big money involved for both Connor and the league.

    Even if they can turn it around, I doubt he plays his whole career here. It’s the Oilers management job to maximize the number of years he stays here. That means next year, competitive, year after that, contender.

    Interesting summer ahead.

  20. Woogie63 says:

    Pacioretty as 1LW …. I would rather have Nuge as 1LW
    Faulk …. move Sekera to 2RSD and keep Klefbom

    There are better internal options

  21. OilClog says:

    This team needs to keep Nuge and Klef and add a Max and Faulk. Or it’s another lottery pick. How can they do that? They can’t, NMC handed out have officially sunk this ship.

    Pretty much up to the fans to make it unbearable as possible for the NMC’s to want to stay. Which will lead to several other issues but maybe just maybe Mcdavid shines bright enough to apply blinders to the scene and good players want to willingly come.

  22. jtblack says:

    LT: If the Projected Lineup Can be attained, I take it all day long It represents true Balance. Then from that point you tweak and Add.

    Everyone may scream not do to anything, but a quick reminder. We are 17 Points out of a playoff spot and this D core as it is, Is not good enough.

    I dont care what GM delivers the balanced photo, I just want to see it.

    Until that time we will have unhappy, frusrated fans; wondering why we suck.

  23. Side says:

    OilClog:

    Pretty much up to the fans to make it unbearable as possible for the NMC’s to want to stay.

    And this is why Oilers fans are looked down upon.

  24. Pouzar says:

    In 4 years Ron Francis didn’t make a single player for player deal. WTF?

  25. jtblack says:

    “but a more substantial backup is a good idea” …..

    This is a must. A quality backup who can deliver Wins. PC has yet to successfully fill this void.

    Also, a quality backup is only useful if a coach will play him amd allow him to get in a rythym and be part of the team. Todd currently throws his backup in about once every 8 – 10 games? Needs to be 1 out of 5 or 6.

    ANA COL VGS NASH SJ all have Great Backups.

  26. jtblack says:

    Pouzar:
    In 4 years Ron Francis didn’t make a single player for player deal. WTF?

    He was waiting for the right deal to come along, as he watched his team miss the playoffs year after year. #Fail

  27. jtblack says:

    2014 Draft revisited:

    LT: You nailed that year. Very Impressive

  28. slopitch says:

    Listening live to the trade idea discussion LT. I think Nuge for Faulk works straight up. No need to trade Klefbom. Id be targetting, a RHD without moving Nuge or Klefbom and add pk players who are cheap and effective. I dont know where those come from though, at least not internally. Jujar fits the bill.

  29. jtblack says:

    I can’t figure out why the Oilers arent in the Playoffs. Let’s see:

    Top scoring D man: 6 Goals
    Top scoring Winger: 11 Goals.

    OK, makes sense.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    For fun I decided to check out Paul Coffey’s draft year, to see who got picked ahead of him and was amazed to find out he was only the 4th defenceman chosen in the 1st round.

    Then I went through the entire 1980 draft and wtf who did the Oilers pick up in the 4th round? Some plug named Jari Kurri.

    I’m increasingly convinced that, outside of superstar players, many star NHLers begin their NHL careers fairly even within their own draft classes; with development acting as the final hurdle to success.

    In other words, joining a team with a talented head coach probably holds more water than, merely being picked earlier. A lot more, possibly.

    Therefore, Mark Messier gets drafted by Harold Ballard’s Toronto Maple Leafs and sans Gretzky/Sather possibly even busts as a player.

  31. godot10 says:

    jtblack: He was waiting for the right deal to come along, as he watched his team miss the playoffs year after year. #Fail

    Did it #Fail in Winnipeg?

  32. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: I can’t figure out why the Oilers arent in the Playoffs. Let’s see:

    Add: Having a defence so putrid that all it can do is pass the puck from their own freaking blueline back behind their own goal, hoping that the opposition will magically disappear.

    If the Oilers defence could pass the puck behind the fans sitting behind the goal, they’d probably try it.

    I’ve never seen a team this consistently terrible at clearing the puck out of their zone than these Oilers. Talk about a losing strategy.

  33. godot10 says:

    hunter1909: Add: Having a defence so putrid that all it can do is pass the puck from their own freaking blueline back behind their own goal, hoping that the opposition will magically disappear.

    If the Oilers defence could pass the puck behind the fans sitting behind the goal, they’d probably try it.

    I’ve never seen a team this consistently terrible at clearing the puck out of their zone than these Oilers. Talk about a losing strategy.

    The Oilers D is coached to allow the other team to forecheck them.

  34. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: The Oilers D is coached to allow the other team to forecheck them.

    I know. It’s insane.

  35. jtblack says:

    godot10: Did it #Fail in Winnipeg?

    Tyler Myers deal was a massive Shakeup. Ladd out. Statsny?

    I think WPG has been patient, but they also have made some deals. They have not done Nothing.

  36. Professor Q says:

    godot10: Did it #Fail in Winnipeg?

    The Kane trade really did work out well for them (and Stastny). Same with some others, not so for others, too (Kovalchuk, though that did end up getting them Big Byf). They do seem to be patient/pedestrian until big splash trades or signings.

    http://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/03/06/winnipeg-jets-trade-history-best-worst-trades-time/

  37. McSorley33 says:

    jtblack,
    Tyler Myers deal was a massive Shakeup. Ladd out. Statsny?

    I think WPG has been patient, but they also have made some deals. They have not done Nothing.
    *****************************************************************************************************************
    Very few NHL player for NHL player trades from Winnipeg. As Chevy said, Timmy Murray was all over him for Evander Kane.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack: Tyler Myers deal was a massive Shakeup.Ladd out.Statsny?

    I think WPG has been patient, but they also have made some deals.They have not done Nothing.

    Tyler Myers deal was actually the Evander Kane deal who he had to trade. Ladd was a trade deadline dump. This Statsny trade is the first real trade of the Chevaldayoff tenure

  39. leadfarmer says:

    It is kind of funny that there are now Oilers fans that completely approve of the Dithers method

  40. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    jtblack:
    I can’t figure out why the Oilers arent in the Playoffs. Let’s see:

    Top scoring D man: 6 Goals
    Top scoring Winger: 11 Goals.

    OK, makes sense.

    Didn’t someone post also that GF is pretty much the same as last year but GA are way up?

  41. John Chambers says:

    The summer trade I’d like to see:

    Oilers trade Benning, Benson, and 2019 1st to Vancouver for Chris Tanev with $2M salary retained.

    If that can’t happen, same deal to Montreal for Pacioretty with $2M retained.

    A re-building team could use young assets like Benning and Benson, and first round picks from teams who’ve been in the lottery forever save a year should have extreme value.

    The trick is adding a quality RD or winger without adding cap hit. It can be done by trading future value to a re-building team who are able to supply us with short-term cap relief.

  42. OilClog says:

    Side: And this is why Oilers fans are looked down upon.

    Meh. I’d say it’s the 20years cheering on a basement dwelling team and continuously drinking the juice.

    How dare fans get angry when the good players are shipped out and the shit players are added on to.

    For shame.

    Lucic, Russell, After injury Sekera. The amount of talent shipped out to accommodate the NMC’s and the continued amount this summer of shipped out goods for lesser return no matter who the GM is.

    Rather be looked down upon then sit there and wave the These guys are great flag.

  43. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    It is kind of funny that there are now Oilers fans that completely approve of the Dithers method

    The long-range wave function of Oilers lulls and peaks affecting fan perspectives. Almost like a Fibonacci Sequence, too, with repeating patterns layered within each other.

  44. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer: Tyler Myers deal was actually the Evander Kane deal who he had to trade.Ladd was a trade deadline dump.This Statsny trade is the first real trade of the Chevaldayoff tenure

    “the first real trade of the Chevaldayoff tenure”.

    I was unaware of the Guidelines for what constituted “A Real Trade”. Apologies

  45. Scungilli Slushy says:

    slopitch:
    Listening live to the trade idea discussion LT. I think Nuge for Faulk works straight up. No need to trade Klefbom. Id be targetting, a RHD without moving Nuge or Klefbom and add pk players who are cheap and effective. I dont know where those come from though, at least not internally. Jujar fits the bill.

    To me Nuge is another overpay for Faulk. Faulk is a second pair specialist whose lost his production and Nuge is a lower first line two way centre after a strong year.

    Faulk + a significant prospect, or + a swap of first (Canes) and second (Oilers) picks or the like. Full value or better must come back.

    Also, multiple pieces mention that it is really hard to get a quality young centre. Faulk isn’t in the same echelon as OEL, Doughty, Karlsson etc, strong two way first pair types.

    I have my doubts Faulk or Barrie actually make much of a difference. They Oilers PP problems aren’t to do with the players as much as the cluster it is. The Oilers need 5v5 play far more, a two way player that can push Russell and Benning down the chart right side.

    Trouba would be far better but the Jets might not need a centre now. He also doesn’t like Winnipeg it seems so I doubt Edmonton appeals any more to an east coast American kid.

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LT I’d be a little concerned about a roster with only 4 centres and no depth on the farm.

    The Cammalleri spot should go to a player like Winnik that can play any forward spot, PK and up the lineup occasionally. And maybe push a youngster to the box if not doing anything helpful. Like Caggiula.

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, this previous offseason you were endorsing Chiarelli spending to the gap to balance the roster. Now you’re endorsing a more measured approach this summer.

    Is that confirmation that this roster balance is not as far ahead as you thought last summer?

    Or it is simply lack of confidence in Chiarelli’s ability to win a legitimate hockey trade?

  48. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy: To me Nuge is another overpay for Faulk. Faulk is a second pair specialist whose lost his production and Nuge is a lower first line two way centre after a strong year.

    Faulk + a significant prospect, or + a swap of first (Canes) and second (Oilers) picks or the like. Full value or better must come back.

    Also, multiple pieces mention that it is really hard to get a quality young centre. Faulk isn’t in the same echelon as OEL, Doughty, Karlsson etc, strong two way first pair types.

    I have my doubts Faulk or Barrie actually make much of a difference. They Oilers PP problems aren’t to do with the players as much as the cluster it is. The Oilers need 5v5 play far more, a two way player that can push Russell and Benning down the chart right side.

    Trouba would be far better but the Jets might not need a centre now. He also doesn’t like Winnipeg it seems so I doubt Edmonton appeals any more to an east coast American kid.

    I have always been a Faulk fan, but your post had me re look at his Stats. Big Minus player last 4 yrs. Can somebody give his Fancy stats? WOWY, GFREL or whatever compares Car when he is on/off the ice

    Thx

  49. OilSafety says:

    I’m looking forward to tonight. My only live game this season and I’m taking time to check out the new barn before hand.

    I went to one game last year but had no extra time to check anything out.

    This year its Lingnan for supper then to the arena for a look see before game time.

    If any of you are at the game I will be the loud cheering, Hall jersey wearing fan in section 205.

    Regarding your post LT I agree those trades should not happen. They address our needs but create new holes and won’t be fair value.

    For me Nuge to 1L and swapping klef for a rhd version would be ideal.

  50. BVOiler says:

    Trading RNH will be a damn travesty. Every other deal, I am at peace with. And I fully know, I’m in a very small minority when it comes to the Hall trade being fine but seriously what is the day after day rehashing of it? Hall is/was a very fine talent, but the ship has not only sailed but sunk. Let it go fellow Oiler fans.
    I dread the day if McDavid ever asks for a trade or if the fan base ever turns on him. And don’t say; that’ll never happen. Over 30 years, I’ve seen far to many players be rundown by fans of this team. We should just be thankful that we have the team, the players we have wearing the jerseys and the simple fact we have Connor McDavid.

  51. Oil2Oilers says:

    John Chambers,

    I still contend the biggest thing Chia can do this summer is fix some one of his mistakes vrs add and make another.

    Finding a way out of either the Lucic or Russell deal so more valuable players like Klefbom and Nuge can remain.

    But I do like your target player, so how about Lucic (2M retained) + Benning for Tanev. Sure only a fool would do that on the Vancouver side, the GM out there is at the very least fool adjacent.

  52. Glass says:

    If not Faulk or Barrie, who else do you target? Dumba? I don’t know much about Tanev, but my impression of him is that he is more of a shutdown D, and we already have that in Larsson.

    Are there any blue-chip D prospects you’d target? Similar to the Drouin for Sergachev deal?

    Edit: I can see us dealing JP for a blue chip D prospect, then drafting Wahlstrom. That being said, I still believe in JP and if I was the one to pull the trigger I’m not sure I could do it.

  53. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    It is kind of funny that there are now Oilers fans that completely approve of the Dithers method

    When the alternative is watching Chiarelli routinely handing out foolish NMC’s while simultaneously trading away perfectly excellent players for inferior ones…

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    Tapdog asked me for a better comp, so I’m reposting this from yesterdays thread with our prospect’s DRAFT YEAR JUNIOR numbers instead.

    4. Ty Smith, LD, WHL 63, 14-56-70 (NHLE: 26.42)
    5. Adam Boqvist, RD, Swe J20 25, 14-10-24 (~24?)
    7. Quinn Hughes, LD, NCAA 33, 4-22-26 (21.32)
    10. Evan Bouchard, OHL 61, 22-56-78 (31.46)
    14. Noah Dobson, QMJHL 62, 16-50-66 (21.82)
    16. Calen Addison, RD, WHL 61, 8-51-59 (23.00)
    17. Ryan Merkley, RD, OHL 57, 12-50-62 (26.76)
    20. Jett Woo, RD, WHL 37, 9-15-24 (17.35)
    25. Bode Wilde, RD, USDP 47, 9-23-32 (~16?)

    46. Rasmus Sandin, LD, OHL 45, 10-32-42 (22.96)

    58. Sean Durzi, RD, OHL 37, 15-32-47 (31.25) (was eligible for 2017 draft)

    And for comparative purposes, in their respective draft years (noted in brackets) :

    Ethan Bear, RD, WHL (2015) 69, 13-25-38 (13.10)
    Filip Berglund, RD, Swe J20 (2016) 43, 19-22-41 (~22.67)
    Caleb Jones, LD, USDP (2015) 65, 6-18-24 (~9.08)
    Dmitri Samorukov, LD, OHL (2017) 67, 4-16-20 (7.34)
    William Lagesson, LD, Swe J20 (2014) 44, 8-12-20 (~10.80)

    Note: I don’t have the NHLE conversion factors for USDP and Swe J20, I just assumed they’d be on par with WHL (0.29).

  55. Side says:

    OilClog: Meh. I’d say it’s the 20years cheering on a basement dwelling team and continuously drinking the juice.

    How dare fans get angry when the good players are shipped out and the shit players are added on to.

    For shame.

    Lucic, Russell, After injury Sekera. The amount of talent shipped out to accommodate the NMC’s and the continued amount this summer of shipped out goods for lesser return no matter who the GM is.

    Rather be looked down upon then sit there and wave the These guys are great flag.

    Fans can get angry if they want. But I don’t see how that justifies the fans making an experience “unbearable” for a player who was given the contract by the GM. Especially since, well, it’s just a game, it’s just a sport, it’s purely for entertainment. There’s no reason to make it “unbearable” to players when the party who gave them the contract thought it was a good deal.

    If you were an athlete and your agent got you a deal with a team that was willing to give you pretty much everything you wanted, you would take it. And you should. In no way, shape or form does that make it okay for you to receive abuse from fans over your contract. The only person who should be on the receiving end of criticism for those deals is the GM.

  56. Wilde says:

    Réal Goudenyéu,

    I believe GF-GA are inseperably tangled. You usually don’t see teams just shed 40GA while their GF stays the same. you have to have the puck for quite awhile to score a goal. This is time that your opponent can’t score.

    I think when we traded away skilled forwards it actually is what hurt our GA the most, along with some light erosion from Talbot and playing Klef hurt, not replacing Sekera, Russell’s luck running out, etc.

    That being said, this data is contentious to my point.

    Here it is:

    (year – gf per game / / ga per game / / total count difference)

    Even strength:

    16/17 – 2.21 / / 1.93 / / +23

    17/18 – 2.28 / / 2.42 / / -9

    5v4:

    16/17 – 0.622 / / 0.061 / / +46

    17/18 – 0.348 / / 0.060 / / +19 (SON OF A FUCKIN SEACOOK)

    4v5:

    16/17 – 0.049 / / 0.463 / / -34

    17/18 – 0.121 / / 0.787 / / – 44 ( GOODNESS FUCKING GRACIOUS BOYS)

    I realised halfway through doing the math that I should have just used per 60. Oh well.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    Side: The only person who should be on the receiving end of criticism for those deals is the GM.

    “Should” has nothing to do with it.

    Particularly since Chiarelli comes across so distant and generally unavailable, like the Oilers are his second job.

  58. vinotintazo says:

    lots of Oilers talk on Elliots 31 Thoughts.

  59. Andy Dufresne says:

    2018-2019

    Nuge McDavid Draisaitl

    Lucic Eric Staal (3.5) JP

    Sleppy Khaira Yamamoto

    Aberg xxxxx Kassian

    Nurse John Carlson (6.5 x 6)
    Sekera Larson
    Russell Dumba (2.5)

    Talbot Raanta (2.5 x 3)

    The 4 new guys cost $15m
    Out of LT Chart is
    Faulk 4.8 Patches 4.5 Strome 3 = 12.2 add in LTs 3.5 min cap space (80m cap) Got about a million to spare ( that combined with LTIR could save us from any bonus overages)

    This is moving Klef and Strome to Minny for Staal and Dumba.
    Minny tight to cap so it might have to be Klef alone (or Klef and a PIck) to Minny SO move Strome elswhere for a pick and give Minny the pick if you have to.

    Carlson is UFA
    Raanta is UFA

    Montoyas out so 1m goes toward a 4th line center. AND we complete the NYR goaltending backup trilogy Talbot Montoya Raanta

    Nuge Draisaitl and Staal are all interchangable in this chart

    Why would Minny do this?…because they value Klefbom like the posters on this site do and because Staal is an aging asset.

    Nuge McDavid Draisaitl ……..Best line in the NHL BAR NONE
    Now thats a cluster I can get behind.

    Give Carlson whatever you have to 7×7? Hes been at 3.9m for the last 6 years.

    Eric Staal under contract for 2 more years carries you until our young prospects are ready for full time top 6 / top line action

    Edit: Wilde just pointed out that Dumba is UFA so you have to bridge him till one of Russell or Sekera is gone.

  60. Wilde says:

    Here’s the tank war update, post ARI win, VAN and BUF loss, again separated into tiers:

    Team – pts % / / draft placing with highest odds / / chance of top 3

    BUF– 0.396 / / 4th @ 51.9% / / 48.1%

    ARI – 0.402 / / 4th @ 33.7% / / 36.2%

    —————————————————

    OTT – 0.431 / / 5th @ 39.1% / / 31.2%

    VAN – 0.440 / / 6th @ 35.5% / / 28.6%

    —————————————————

    EDM – 0.455 / / 6th @ 32.8% / / 25.9%

    MTL – 0.462 / / 7th @ 38.2% / / 23.4%

    —————————————————

    DET – 0.477 / / 8th @ 39.7% / / 20.9%

    CHI/NYR – 0.493 / / 9th @ 38.1% / / 18.3%

    The Raanta-led Coyotes push continues as expected, but they’ll have to continue for awhile while the Boeser-less Canucks do the opposite before we see some inter-tier movement.

    Price+Weber-less Montreal is closing on EDM, my prediction is that they’ll swap spots.

    As for the final standings, my prediction from 31-24 is BUF, VAN, ARI, OTT, MTL, EDM, DET, NYR.

    Guaranteed top 7 and 23.4% chance at top 3 is helpful, especially considering the players available.. and that we’ll see some more talent shipped out of town in June.

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    “but a more substantial backup is a good idea” …..

    This is a must.A quality backup who can deliver Wins. PC has yet to successfully fill this void.

    Also, a quality backup is only useful if a coach will play him amd allow him to get in a rythym and be part of the team. Todd currently throws his backup in about once every 8 – 10 games? Needs to be 1 out of 5 or 6.

    ANA COL VGS NASH SJ all have Great Backups.

    Plenty of quality backup on the UFA market this summer. I guess Montoya becomes a throw-in on a larger trade then?

  62. Wilde says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Is Dumba bridged here? He scores like a 4-5M guy, and boxcars get you paid in the NHL.

  63. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde: Guaranteed top 7 and 23.4% chance at top 3 is helpful, especially considering the players available.. and that we’ll see some more talent shipped out of town in June.

    That a 27th place hockey team is planning to jettison talent… extraordinary.

  64. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack: “the first real trade of the Chevaldayoff tenure”.

    I was unaware of the Guidelines for what constituted “A Real Trade”. Apologies

    Just saying at no point in time did Chevaldayoff try to make his team better. He traded Kane cause he had to and traded Ladd cause he had to. He better be taking his amateur scouts out to dinner every night

  65. John Chambers says:

    This Yost article is pretty milquetoast: https://www.tsn.ca/talent/the-oilers-can-t-score-without-mcdavid-1.1021405

    Yost’s point is that the OIlers are a weaker team without McDavid. Like, weaker than league average. No big news there.

    The crucial point is that Draisaitl can drive a line w/o McDavid, and as we’ve seen RNH isn’t too shabby either, mostly treading water with the NHL playing nearly zero minutes with 97.

    The main conclusion I draw is that Caggiula isn’t an NHL player and it’s unfortunate he’s gotten as much top-6 time with 97 and 29 as he has, but on the whole I think the Oilers forward structure is doing fine. Really it’s a matter of 97 and 29 not playing with enough top-6 calibre talent.

  66. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: Plenty of quality backup on the UFA market this summer. I guess Montoya becomes a throw-in on a larger trade then?

    I am not sure if he is the answer or not? Hes the best we have had in the last 3 years.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    vinotintazo:
    lots of Oilers talk on Elliots 31 Thoughts.

    My favorite part is the part where he talks about goalies that struggled that are given time to find their game while the team runs with the backup for a few games. Thats a funny one

  68. who says:

    leadfarmer: Just saying at no point in time did Chevaldayoff try to make his team better.He traded Kane cause he had to and traded Ladd cause he had to.He better be taking his amateur scouts out to dinner every night

    Yes but when he had to make a trade he got good value.
    A GMs job is much more involved than just making trades. A huge part of it involves scouting,drafting and development. Chevy has excelled at this. I give him full credit.

  69. Andy Dufresne says:

    Wilde:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Is Dumba bridged here? He scores like a 4-5M guy, and boxcars get you paid in the NHL.

    Thank you! I hadnt considered it. Just noticed hes RFA so yes….bridge him at 3 or less until we get rid of Russell or Sekera.

  70. Wilde says:

    vinotintazo,

    Dundon seems like a bright guy.

    This is, I believe, the third time that Friedman has openly pondered the Klefbom showcase.

    Getting harder and harder to even reach coin-flip odds he’ll be here next year. Unbelievable.

  71. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer: Just saying at no point in time did Chevaldayoff try to make his team better.He traded Kane cause he had to and traded Ladd cause he had to.He better be taking his amateur scouts out to dinner every night

    Whether a GM trades frequently or not at all; they are judged by results. The patient approach may pay off for WPG, but not so much for CAR. Trading big pieces may not work for PC, but has for Poile.

    And yes to the WPG scouts. To hit in every 1st rounder since 2011 is Amazing.

    2011 Scheiffle
    2012 Trouba
    2013 Morrissey
    2014 Ehlers
    2015 Connor
    2016 Laine
    plus others in diff rounds

  72. russ99 says:

    After last summer we can’t bet on the same kids to step up, can’t believe the same fans that have ripped Chiarelli for not doing enough last summer are embracing the same idea this summer.

    The only RFAs that are a sure thing are Nurse and Strome if they can work around the QO. I’d rather sign veteran NHLers at or under $1M deals later in FA targeting the PK, playing defensively as a unit, and chipping in goals than bring back the same underperforming players.

  73. russ99 says:

    hunter1909: That a 27th place hockey team is planning to jettison talent… extraordinary.

    How do you acquire talent? From the system, which is a void; from the draft where we need to stop rushing picks; and from free agency and we have no cap room; and trades. Seems obvious.

  74. Pretendergast says:

    I really don’t like the notion of writing players off when you’ve invested time and money into them. Put them in positions to succeed, see what happens. Drake never had that.

    Caggiula was not the line driver at UND.

    Has speed, checking, and reports say smarts.
    Hindsight but AHL time on PK could have been very useful.

    This player screams grinder puck retrieval. That also screams bottom 6 role.

    Winger on line 4 after developing PK skills could have been, move up when earned.

    Don’t hate the player cause he can’t play with Mcdavid, we love Khaira because they developed him into his role, has confidence, occasionally can move up now that he’s established+secure in role.

    Confidence and management, stick Drake in minors if possible, line 4 Right wing to demon forecheck.

    If he can’t do that, THEN move on.

  75. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack: Whether a GM trades frequently or not at all; they are judged by results. The patient approach may pay off for WPG, but not so much for CAR.Trading big pieces may not work for PC, but has for Poile.

    And yes to the WPG scouts.To hit in every 1st rounder since 2011 is Amazing.

    2011 Scheiffle
    2012 Trouba
    2013 Morrissey
    2014 Ehlers
    2015 Connor
    2016 Laine
    plus others in diff rounds

    Not even close to the Oilers IMHO

    2010 Taylor Hall
    2011 RNH
    2012 BUZZZ
    2014 Nurse
    2015 Draisaitl
    2016 McDavid
    2017 Yamamoto

    But I get your point about hitting in EVERY year….whereas we wiffed/struck out in 2012

  76. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne: Not even close to the Oilers IMHO

    2010Taylor Hall
    2011 RNH
    2012 BUZZZ
    2014 Nurse
    2015 Draisaitl
    2016 McDavid
    2017 Yamamoto

    But I get your point about hitting in EVERY year….whereas we wiffed/struck out in 2012

    Also consider almost every Oiler pick was a Lottery Pick. WPG is finding Great players no matter where they draft in Rd 1

  77. Material pocession says:

    Pink Socks:

    On the F:

    Zack Kassian has not been horrible, certainly the least of the concerns up front.I am curious though why the HC does not give him a longer look in the top 9.A 4RW cannot make $2m.Kassian needs to be in the top 9, or on another roster.This is another example of HC and GM not being aligned, and the HC not properly deploying his roster.IMO, Zack Kassian = Tom Wilson.Both big, good skaters, slightly crazy, and some offensive potential if given the opportunity.Wilson is thriving in Washington now playing on a line with Ovechkin.Kassian has the speed to keep up with McDavid, is it his IQ that prevents him from getting a look?Kass has also looked good in limited time with Lucic and Draisaitl, but he keeps ending up playing with Letestu/Pakarinen/Caggiula, or now spending time as a healthy scratch.I’m starting it, #FreeKass

    I don’t see it. He’s overpaid for a 4th liner but that is what he is. His hockey sense is limited and forcing him up the lineup is not well advised (same thing goes for Caggiula). I’d try to trade him this summer, if possible.

  78. Material pocession says:

    Andy Dufresne: Not even close to the Oilers IMHO

    2010Taylor Hall
    2011 RNH
    2012 BUZZZ
    2014 Nurse
    2015 Draisaitl
    2016 McDavid
    2017 Yamamoto

    But I get your point about hitting in EVERY year….whereas we wiffed/struck out in 2012

    2013 Nurse
    2014 Draisaitl
    2015 McDavid
    2016 Puljujarvi
    2017 Yamamoto

  79. Wilde says:

    russ99:
    the same fans that have ripped Chiarelli for not doing enough last summer are embracing the same idea this summer.

    Who are you talking about in this post?

  80. Material pocession says:

    Pretendergast:
    I really don’t like the notion of writing players off when you’ve invested time and money into them. Put them in positions to succeed, see what happens. Drake never had that.

    Caggiula was not the line driver at UND.

    Has speed, checking, and reports say smarts.
    Hindsight but AHL time on PK could have been very useful.

    This player screams grinder puck retrieval. That also screams bottom 6 role.

    Winger on line 4 after developing PK skills could have been, move up when earned.

    Don’t hate the player cause he can’t play with Mcdavid, we love Khaira because they developed him into his role, has confidence, occasionally can move up now that he’s established+secure in role.

    Confidence and management, stick Drake in minors if possible, line 4 Right wing to demon forecheck.

    If he can’t do that, THEN move on.

    Caggiula would need to clear waivers to go to the minors. He’s okay on the 4th line but the coach keeps pushing him up the lineup, which is ill-advised. Maybe the next coach will realize what he is (4th line energy guy). What I don’t care for re: Caggs is his lack of penalty killing ability. He needs to be way better at this to be on the roster, in my opinion.

  81. Material pocession says:

    I agree with LT’s sentiment: no major trades. Upgrade where possible but do not trade RNH. Balance the defence but don’t trade Klefbom for a lesser player. If they make a trade to ‘shake things up’, then they are making a massive mistake. Under almost no circumstances should the 1st round draft pick be on the table. A coaching change and a better backup goalie are the only moves that they need to make.

  82. Pretendergast says:

    Material pocession,

    Is there any doubt he clears?

    And if we lose him for nothing, is that really the worst scenario for this player?

  83. boneshj says:

    smellyglove,

    I’m not sure how often I’d visit, but I would certainly check it out. Ultimately, I think you need to decide what the purpose overall is.

    If it is to show GM performance, you probably want to measure both what they brought in, vs. what they let go. This may even include coaching stats, but obviously those would be tougher to quantify as departing coaching staff often go to lesser leagues at least temporarily.

    If it is to measure the impact of the change in scenery for a players, then just looking at players out might be enough and something to compare them to the rest of the players across the league who changed teams.

  84. Yeti says:

    Material pocession:
    I agree with LT’s sentiment:no major trades.Upgrade where possible but do not trade RNH.Balance the defence but don’t trade Klefbom for a lesser player.If they make a trade to ‘shake things up’, then they are making a massive mistake.Under almost no circumstances should the 1st round draft pick be on the table.A coaching change and a better backup goalie are the only moves that they need to make.

    Perhaps you are right. But I think it is fear that Chiarelli will screw up a big trade that is driving this ‘do little’ sentiment rather than any real belief that all the right pieces are in place. If the right trade is there to address some glaring team weaknesses, you have to do it.

  85. boneshj says:

    Pouzar,

    Makes Tambelini look downright aggressive.

  86. Pouzar says:

    jtblack:
    I can’t figure out why the Oilers arent in the Playoffs. Let’s see:

    Top scoring D man: 6 Goals
    Top scoring Winger: 11 Goals.

    OK, makes sense.

    31-31 is the reason.

  87. boneshj says:

    hunter1909,

    scouting has come a long way since these examples though. Yes, some gems still slip down the draft, but not as much as back then.

  88. Pretendergast says:

    I wonder how many of us would be open to trading Nuge if we knew the guy doing it was competent at this aspect of his job.

    I’d trade Nuge in a heartbeat for Pacioretty and Petry. Have to include Looch, with Nuge’s youth and the age of the Hab players i think Marc ‘I need a young centre or I’m fired’ Bergevin would look into it. He also really wanted Looch at a higher number not too long ago.

    Habs have Mete and Juulsen coming up/ready to take on responsibility soon, maybe a Petry r2 move could happen.

    Edit: Petry’s contract has NMC in 2018-19, perfect time to move him ala Subban before him.

  89. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Hey LT and others in the “tinker don’t blow it up camp” for this off-season, I have a query:

    – Last off-season, Chia was criticized by LT and others, for not blowing it up. His “major trade” was Ebs for Strome, and a few depth moves: Joki, Auvitu. A :tinker” off-season: fair?

    – And this year they didn’t do so hot. So why would we be advocating a tinker off-season, when the team performed poorly, yet least year, coming off a an injury from Sek to being in the semis, his relative quiet off-season was considered bad?

    – I’m just asking, trying to figure out the rational. I too think tinker, because i think we are close

    – But if you think the team is crap, don’t you want to see big changes? And if you think the team isn’t and you don’t want Chia to do much, why do you want him fired?

    – There is an inconsistency unless I am not reading it correctly. Surely it cant be: “the team is crap, and I don’t want or trust Chia to do anything because he’s crap”

  90. v4ance says:

    From the people I follow on Twitter, Chevaldayoff was ripped by his fanbase for the past few years for not doing enough to improve his teams during the offseasons and at the trade deadlines. He had the drafting, development and hoarding of talent done correctly. He just needed to solve the goaltending after 3 years of Pavelec’s inconsistency. Now with Hellebuyck, they have the quality goalie they’ve always needed.

    This year when he knows he’s got a legitimate contender is when he actually went out and grabbed an upgrade during the trade frenzy. Even then, no one had Stastny going to the Jets because of Chevaldayoff’s shrewdness and slyness.

    I agree with JTBlack. When Chevy did trade, he got full value back on all his trades. Kane was a known “problem child” and he got a great deal from Buffalo for Myers. Compare that to Chiarelli who traded our supposed “locker room problem” Hall at a discount.

    Also, even when there’s been tons of rumblings about Trouba’s desire to go to a US based team, Chevy hasn’t made any panic moves and traded just to rid himself of this issue. NOT making a bad deal is just as important as any other of a GM’s skills.

    Nashville is also a good team at trading for full value. Jones for Johansen, Weber for Subban, Girard for Turris showed Poile’s ability to trade from his strengths (well developed defensive depth) to successfully balance his roster without bleeding value.

    I think Ron Francis was on the right track. As a small market team, he had to watch his budget and develop from within, eschewing big money UFA additions. I believe they are one or two years from being a strong playoff team if they just let their prospects percolate and graduate like the Jets did.

  91. Gayfish says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Hey LT and others in the “tinker don’t blow it up camp” for this off-season, I have a query:

    – Last off-season, Chia was criticized by LT and others, for not blowing it up.His “major trade” was Ebs for Strome, and a few depth moves: Joki, Auvitu.A :tinker” off-season: fair?

    – And this year they didn’t do so hot.So why would we be advocating a tinker off-season, when the team performed poorly, yet least year, coming off a an injury from Sek to being in the semis, his relative quiet off-season was considered bad?

    – I’m just asking, trying to figure out the rational.I too think tinker, because i think we are close

    – But if you think the team is crap, don’t you want to see big changes?And if you think the team isn’t and you don’t want Chia to do much, why do you want him fired?

    – There is an inconsistency unless I am not reading it correctly.Surely it cant be: “the team is crap, and I don’t want or trust Chia to do anything because he’s crap”

    -Not sure how trading a 60pt scorer for a Benoit Pouliot replacement isn’t blowing it up.
    -The pipeline is crap and the team is top heavy with no cap space
    -Don’t tinker comes from the idea that management is “the condition of having an IQ below 70”

  92. Wilde says:

    – Last off-season, Chia was criticized by LT and others, for not blowing it up.

    It’s absolutely mindblowing that we read the same person’s words last summer and you came up with him ‘criticising Chiarelli for not blowing it up’.

  93. --hudson-- says:

    Todd’s pregame availability below. Highlights:
    – Klefbom may need a procedure after the season.
    – They initially thought Strome would be a better offensive player, got down on him, but are happy with him in this new role.
    – Discussion on PK changes
    – Nurse is trending to being a top pairing dman.
    – 3vs3 is an Oilers strength but they need to get better in the first 60 minutes.
    – Too early to do a post-mortem on the season. Then he pokes fun at Spector for having the article already written.

    Source video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRUwyQvyks8
    ————————————————–
    Q: With Klefbom supposedly playing hurt or injured and not rest him can you comment on the health of Oscar Klefbom?
    A: Cant, well he’s been healthy enough to play he went through a bad spell early in the year he had a treatment that kept him out of the lineup for a while. he’s been good now for I don’t it’s been a month and a half or two months since he had that treatment but it eventually wears off and you know that’s where he’s out right now.

    Q: So it’s not there isn’t some procedure that’s waiting for Oscar Klefbom that’ll fix this problem overall?
    A: Well like anybody and that’s playing right now on 31 different teams there are a number of players that need procedures. He could end up being one of them so we’ll see how that goes from now until the end of the year. He’s got to make he’ll have to make some personal decisions and doctors will have to consult with them as well.

    Q: Ryan Strome came into the league is a fifth overall pick and that brings with it some offensive expectations for some people but he seems to be settling into that third line responsible penalty killing guy that can chip in with some offense right now is some guys that are drafted high settled into different roles in the NHL?
    A: I think they do and when you’re picked that high you usually are a dominant offensive point producing player whether regardless of what position D man or forward. Ryan was that and he still has that in his game. It’s just that he’s not at that level that Connors producing there Austin Matthews or any of those other top four or five six picks and that tends to lead to a negative aura around them. You know and it happened to us too we got tricked into that or not tricked into we got drawn into that and it made us look at him negatively so we found a spot for him. We gave them different responsibilities and as a result he’s played better over the last month and a half. He’s been productive offensively he’s accepted those roles. We feel that we have a pretty darn good player.

    Q: You’ve been in search of consistency for your penalty kill all year. You finally have a run going right now. What would you say, not that it’s completely fixed, but what were the tweaks or the changes that have got you on that run?
    A: We made some systemic changes, we also made some personnel changes, we looked at practice, and practice differently, meetings were adjusted. You know we did just about everything you possibly could to that unit or to that special team to try and make a difference. Now you know the one thing that you can’t change is the breaks and the bounces that go off a skate to an open player as that first goal was the other night against Arizona. I think we’ve been getting some key saves and some key bounces on our penalty kill where the puck has gone the right direction instead of the wrong direction where early in the year it wasn’t.

    Q: Darnell Nurse, what makes a player a first pairing defenseman as opposed to a three-four. Is he in that situation where he looks like he could be over time a first pairing defenseman every night?
    Q: He definitely looks like he can become that and I think he’s trending towards that. His learning curve has been very steep and very sharp since he’s been here. He’s still considered a young defenseman in my opinion. You know he has a number of tools that a number one or number two d men possess, especially defensively the size, the ability to move, tenacity and a toughness to make it hard for top players to play against. He has shown and he’s looking for consistency in this area the ability to create some offense so those are some of the elements that number one or number two guy has.

    Q: You guys have 10 wins in overtime. Do you at all, like the fans. get excited when it comes to three on three especially when you can throw out McDavid and Draisaitl, who have such great chemistry? They scored combined last game last game against the Islanders or is that maybe later on when you’re watching video where you can realize…
    A: No when we get to that point it’s there’s an intensity that occurs not only in our building but all the buildings in the league. When you get to three on three it becomes very exciting. It’s been one of the better things I think our league has done. It’s opened up the game, you know when you have a chance to peek up in the stands everybody seems to be standing or on the edge of their seats one way or the other, and every team in the league has the strengths that they have and weaknesses they have as a team. One of our strengths is overtime and the ability to put that pair on the ice and then come back with another pair now that Nuge is here too to counter that and we have had success. We’ve also had some success in the shootouts but unfortunately for us that’s the five minute game. It’s the 60 minute game that we’d like to win in regulation or you know and win more often that’s where we’ve got to fix things.

    Q: If what they say is true that sometimes you learn more from losing than winning, what would a veteran coach have learned this year? What do you keep a book on some things that this season might have taught you that you can take forward?
    A: Well the years not over yet so that’s probably a much easier question to answer. We’ve still got one fifth of a season in front of us so throw that at me in 16 games. There I just destroyed your article didn’t I? Yep probably. I got a feeling it’s three quarters written already.

  94. Bag of Pucks says:

    v4ance,

    This is why I compare GMs to porftfolio managers and say you have to look at the entire body of work and not isolated trades as the evidence of proficiency.

    Chevaldayoff’s teams have 1 first round sweep loss to show for 6 seasons.

    There’s patience and then there’s inertia. Chevy is like a poker player that only bets the nuts. Yes, you win nearly every hand you play being that patient but you’ll rarely win the tournament playing that tight. For one, I think he should’ve addressed the starting G issue 2 seasons ago or more. Where I think he’s excelled is at the draft.

  95. v4ance says:

    My mindset behind the “stand pat” for the next year is because of the cap.

    I believe to get equivalent or greater value of talent for trading RNH or Klefbom, we would need to take back more salary. Because of the cap situation, the management is looking shed salary instead.

    I am under the impression that if we trade a $4 million Klefbom, for another $4million or cheaper player, we’ll get a worse player in return (and same for Nuge’s $6 million cap hit). So under those conditions, we are bleeding talent for cheaper cap hits.

    My point is we need to keep all the talent we have and ADD more instead of subtract.

    Last summer, we shed salary (Eberle/Pouliot) for lots of cap room for this year only. We could have used those cap savings for one year deals but Chiarelli stood pat.

    My belief is that he hoped the team would tread water til February and then he’d use the cap savings to go hard for pending UFAs at this trade deadline on the way to the playoffs. Putting the cart before the horse, Chiarelli didn’t give the team enough talent to make the playoffs so the cap savings were wasted. The only good thing about this year is that it revealed our roster weaknessess and our coaching issues.

    Standing pat this offseason means we keep Klef and Nuge going into their prime years. We write off next year as a development year and a year of burning off bad contracts. Next offseason we aggressively try to offload the older NMC contracts when some of them become NTCs or cheaper buyouts.

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    Might be worth a try to fleece the new Canes GM in the offseason.

    Would KBom plus a second get you Faulk?

    Or how about Nuge and KBom for Hanifin and Aho? Too bad Noah shoots left.

    Completely pulled these out of my ass. Possibly the fancies make these the WORST TRADES EVER ?

  97. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde: It’s absolutely mindblowing that we read the same person’s words last summer and you came up with him ‘criticising Chiarelli for not blowing it up’.

    – maybe blowing it up is the wrong term. But lt and others have said chias inactions last summer are fireable offences.

    – yet the consensus now is chia is crap as is the team is and don’t do more than tinker.

    – so either fire chia and make a lot of moves and we will get better or don’t fire chia and don’t make moves and then hopefully chia gets fired because we won’t be getting better with chia

  98. russ99 says:

    v4ance:
    My mindset behind the “stand pat” for the next year is because of the cap.

    I believe to get equivalent or greater value of talent for trading RNH or Klefbom, we would need to take back more salary.Because of the cap situation, the management is looking shed salary instead.

    I am under the impression that if we trade a $4 million Klefbom, for another $4million or cheaper player, we’ll get a worse player in return (and same for Nuge’s $6 million cap hit).So under those conditions, we are bleeding talent for cheaper cap hits.

    My point is we need to keep all the talent we have and ADD more instead of subtract.

    Last summer, we shed salary (Eberle/Pouliot) for lots of cap room for this year only.We could have used those cap savings for one year deals but Chiarelli stood pat.

    My belief is that he hoped the team would tread water til February and then he’d use the cap savings to go hard for pending UFAs at this trade deadline on the way to the playoffs.Putting the cart before the horse, Chiarelli didn’t give the team enough talent to make the playoffs so the cap savings were wasted.The only good thing about this year is that it revealed our roster weaknessess and our coaching issues.

    Standing pat this offseason means we keep Klef and Nuge going into their prime years.We write off next year as a development year and a year of burning off bad contracts.Next offseason we aggressively try to offload the older NMC contracts when some of them become NTCs or cheaper buyouts.

    Both players have question marks, Klef backslid and was hurt again, and people are portraying Nuge as this offensive savior, when his real value is when we don’t have the puck, and what we’re getting from him doesn’t add up to $6M.

    I’d think moving on from future multi-year commitments of $10M in cap space to land players that can better complement the McDavid core, specifically a right side all-around D with a shot and a shooter for Connor’s line makes both fiscal and hockey sense.

    The cap will continue to be a problem, it’s not going away. We need to sign Jesse and Talbot (or a new goalie) in 2019 summer and pay for our high pick this year, even with Sekera and Russell traded, that’s going to be tricky.

    Treading water for a year helps nobody, and is one bad year closer to McDavid asking out of town.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde: It’s absolutely mindblowing that we read the same person’s words last summer and you came up with him ‘criticising Chiarelli for not blowing it up’.

    If the Oilers had any balls they’d have turfed McLellan after allowing his team to be blown out by the Ducks. It was as pure a job of a coach in position to take a series, then allowing it to be taken from him as I’ve ever seen.

  100. hunter1909 says:

    –hudson–: – 3vs3 is an Oilers strength but they need to get better in the first 60 minutes.

    Hell, I’d sack him just for this alone.

  101. hunter1909 says:

    Pretendergast: I’d trade Nuge in a heartbeat for Pacioretty and Petry.

    Max-Patio-ready as his Montreal fans have come to know him, as he disappears each spring.

    They might as well sign Cammileri to a 3 year NMC, lol.

  102. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Might be worth a try to fleece the new Canes GM in the offseason.

    Chiarelli doesn’t appear able to be involved in any trades involving “fleecing” unless he’s the “fleecee”.

  103. Dominoiler says:

    LT,

    Wrt the lowedown question, trading w Carolina, i the oilers could look at sekera being part of the package.. i know the injury would hurt the guys stock, but he would still have cache..

    I don’t wanna trade Nuge, i put drai on the top of the RW pit of inexperienced options.. but, if Nuge goes to Carolina then it’s with sekera for Skinner / faulk..

  104. Side says:

    hunter1909: If the Oilers had any balls they’d have turfed McLellan after allowing his team to be blown out by the Ducks. It was as pure a job of a coach in position to take a series, then allowing it to be taken from him as I’ve ever seen.

    Pretty sure the refs had a pretty big hand in taking the series away from the Oilers.

  105. Bling says:

    On the same day that LT wisely asks for a patient summer peppered with a few well thought out, low-cost acquisitions, a day that coincides with Jordan Eberle’s return to Edmonton, Elliot Friedman tells us Klefbom is being showcased.

    Why?

    Because Edmonton is the new Gotham City, and the good men running the Edmonton Oilers are inmates at the Arkham Asylum.

    “Why make a catastrophic mistake once, if you can make it five, six, or seven times across multiple franchises?” — Peter Chiarelli, sweating profusely through a track suit, probably.

  106. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: There’s patience and then there’s inertia. Chevy is like a poker player that only bets the nuts. Yes, you win nearly every hand you play being that patient but you’ll rarely win the tournament playing that tight.

    I’ve never played in a poker Tournament. I’ve played in a lot of all night games, and as a matter of fact that’s not a bad strategy at all, because the first rule of gambling with money is to try to NEVER LOSE IT.

    Do this, and with patience other players with less patience(like Chiarelli) will soon show their own, personal losing styles.

  107. Oil2Oilers says:

    Does an improving Strome net an struggling Pacioretty? Mtl seems to be always looking for a Center. Pacioretty would carry a 4.5M cap hit compared to Strome’s likely 3M.

    A rebounded Pacioretty is a 1st line left wing Strome is a 3d line Center. Oilers have capable Centers, left wings not so much.

  108. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – maybe blowing it up is the wrong term. But lt and others have said chias inactions last summer are fireable offences.

    – yet the consensus now is chia is crap as is the team is and don’t do more than tinker.

    – so either fire chia and make a lot of moves and we will get better or don’t fire chia and don’t make moves and then hopefully chia gets fired because we won’t be getting better with chia

    I believe the criticism can be summarised as this: Chiarelli lost a bunch of players through various means, trades, buyouts, injury. neglect to re-sign.

    Subtracted from the roster was Eberle, Pouliot, Pitlick, Sekera.

    Replacements were: Ryan Strome.

    So basically, he tore a patch off the roster and then stopped short of constructing a playoff-certain roster afterwards.

    The criticism wasn’t that more should have been subtracted, it was that more should have been added after the subtraction.

    As for people wanting to just tinker with the roster, I think that’s a function of the options available being terrible all-around because of the high-grade, concentrated fuckery that our salary cap has been subject to.

    But that’s the second time I’ve projected my understanding of other people’s opinion for them in this post, which is two too many.

  109. Bling says:

    hunter1909: Chiarelli doesn’t appear able to be involved in any trades involving “fleecing” unless he’s the “fleecee”.

    Chiarelli GMing is like binge-watching Mr. Bean.

    You’re like, this is funny, but why the hell was it on the air for so long?

  110. --hudson-- says:

    hunter1909: Hell, I’d sack him just for this alone.

    After watching most of his availabilities all season, this might be the worst one. Basically confirming they thought they could unlock Strome’s offence (even though he barely played with McDavid). Then when it did not happen they got negative on him (which dovetails with the trade rumors).

    Now they seem to be lining up to trade an injured Klefbom and they think Nurse is trending to be something he isn’t. Although Klefbom seems complicit in the showcase if thats what this is.

    This availability does not give a fan much confidence in the org.

  111. --hudson-- says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Does an improving Strome net an struggling Pacioretty? Mtl seems to be always looking for a Center. Pacioretty would carry a 4.5M cap hit compared to Strome’s likely 3M.

    A rebounded Pacioretty is a 1st line left wing Strome is a 3d line Center. Oilers have capable Centers, left wings not so much.

    This is the kind of trade you make when you are a contender and one piece away from contending. It looks good next year until Pacioretty walks or you pay him to stay. Since the Oilers are unlikely to contend next season, I would set their sights on the next Pacioretty. Or try a top 6 where Nuge or Drai play the wing.

  112. Bling says:

    How about a round of applause for Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid? They are 18th and 4th overall, respectively, in EV scoring amongst players who have played 800 minutes or more.

    Those two guys have played hard all year and produced with little to no help.

    Leon has even taken some swipes from Todd, for who knows what reason.

    The next time Sideshow Bob talks about culture/leadership being the problem, someone should give him a swift kick in the ass.

  113. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    For years here I have stated that dmen like Faulk can single handed destroy a teams playoff chance.
    1. By chasing offence
    While the top 5 Even offensive dmen only generate top 6 fwd even production.
    Top 6-15 generate top 9 fwd even offence.
    16-210 dmen generat 4th line to #17 fwd (510) even production.
    These are yr to yr seasonal rates.
    2. Generate brutal even save% averages that a goalie is required to perform around.
    They abandon
    a. the free path to the HD area by chasing offence
    B. HD area pressing the perimeter.

    They are all Were Is Waldo dmen.

    Faulk is one of the 5 worst with Reilly, Nurse
    We have the chance to dump 2 left side dmen with brutal HD defensive ability for younger/ cheaper forward assets.

    Leaving us with a right side 1st comp top 5 hd dman
    Atop 10hd dpair facing 2nd comp.
    A RFA right side 3rd comp dman with trending HD repeatability

    I would love to retain Nurse in a 3rd comp role. Cause he showed signs of Elite HD play in his final year of junior.
    He can be hidden on the 3rd pair with limited minutes.

    But Faulk and nurse HD defence for 9.5m cancels out McDavid,s and Draisatl,s 1st and 2nd line goal dif.
    30.25M of cap wasted.

  114. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Last off-season, Chia was criticized by LT and others, for not blowing it up.

    I was actually complimentary of Chiarelli last summer.
    http://lowetide.ca/2017/08/13/re-17-18-peter-chiarelli-danny-says/

  115. godot10 says:

    Dominoiler:
    LT,

    Wrt the lowedown question, trading w Carolina, i the oilers could look at sekera being part of the package.. i know the injury would hurt the guys stock, but he would still have cache..

    I don’t wanna trade Nuge, i put drai on the top of the RW pit of inexperienced options.. but, if Nuge goes to Carolina then it’s with sekera for Skinner / faulk..

    Why would Carolina be interest in Sekera when their left D is

    Slavin, Hanifin, Fleury, Bean.

    basically their strongest position group.

    And with Skinner, you are screwed, because he only has one year left on his contract. Nugent-Hopkin has three.

    So Skinner has one great year with McDavid and then you have to pay him $7.5 million…so you can’t keep him.

    Try Nugent-Hopkins on LW with McDavid, and maybe one has an in-house solution at a fixed cost for three years (who also can be a centre if one of the big two get hurt).

  116. godot10 says:

    Side: Pretty sure the refs had a pretty big hand in taking the series away from the Oilers.

    Where was Lucic? Why didn’t he impose his will?

  117. Side says:

    godot10: Where was Lucic?Why didn’t he impose his will?

    He was at the head of the table, of course.

  118. Ribs says:

    –hudson–: Q: So it’s not there isn’t some procedure that’s waiting for Oscar Klefbom that’ll fix this problem overall?
    A: Well like anybody and that’s playing right now on 31 different teams there are a number of players that need procedures. He could end up being one of them so we’ll see how that goes from now until the end of the year. He’s got to make he’ll have to make some personal decisions and doctors will have to consult with them as well.

    dammitdammitdammitdammit

    Fix it.

    Now.

  119. hunter1909 says:

    Side: Pretty sure the refs had a pretty big hand in taking the series away from the Oilers.

    The refs? Nice one! Not the actual fact that the Ducks beat the Oilers down or anything.

    If it WAS the refs, then McLellan’s number one job should have been calling time outs, having the refs come over then screaming at them until they either threw him out of the arena or else did their jobs properly.

    The last thing you do under pressure, while “leading” a team in the way I think a head coach leads a team is to sit back and do nothing. Yell, scream, get tossed but make sure everyone knows what’s going on. Heck, it might have even fired up Connor McDavid to score a couple of more clutch goals, which of course we may never know for the next 2-3 seasons under the current regime(playoff hockey).

  120. hunter1909 says:

    I reckon I could manage the Oilers better than Chiarelli does simply by using HF Boards as my template, lol.

    I supported Chiarelli at first. Why not, he’d won a cup in Boston.

    Then you notice the little things, like how he seems to disappear for months on end, returning with weird moustaches etc. I think: wtf is this dude getting up to? It certainly doesn’t seem like hockey management.

    Now Todd’s joined the freak show; sacrificing the season for his mid life crisis personal body rebuild.

  121. who says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Does an improving Strome net an struggling Pacioretty? Mtl seems to be always looking for a Center. Pacioretty would carry a 4.5M cap hit compared to Strome’s likely 3M.

    A rebounded Pacioretty is a 1st line left wing Strome is a 3d line Center. Oilers have capable Centers, left wings not so much.

    You would have to add a SIGNIFICANT piece to Strome.
    He’s been okay as a third line center but they want a lot more than that for Pacioretty .

  122. Bag of Pucks says:

    rickithebear:
    Bag of Pucks:

    For years here I have stated that dmen like Faulk can single handed destroy a teams playoff chance.
    1. By chasing offenceWhile the top 5 Even offensive dmen only generate top 6 fwd even production.
    Top 6-15 generate top 9 fwd even offence.
    16-210 dmen generat 4th line to #17 fwd (510) even production.
    These are yr to yr seasonal rates.
    2. Generate brutal even save% averages that a goalie is required to perform around.
    They abandon
    a. the free path to the HD area by chasing offence
    B. HD area pressing the perimeter.

    They are all Were Is Waldo dmen.

    Faulk is one of the 5 worst with Reilly, Nurse
    We have the chance to dump 2 left side dmen with brutal HD defensive ability for younger/ cheaper forward assets.

    Leaving us with a right side 1st comp top 5 hd dman
    Atop 10hd dpair facing 2nd comp.
    A RFA right side 3rd comp dman with trending HD repeatability

    I would love to retain Nurse in a 3rd comp role. Cause he showed signs of Elite HD play in his final year of junior.
    He can be hidden on the 3rd pair with limited minutes.

    But Faulk and nurse HD defence for 9.5m cancels out McDavid,s and Draisatl,s 1st and 2nd line goal dif.
    30.25M of cap wasted.

    Ok, so that’s a hard ‘no’ then ; )

  123. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: I’ve never played in a poker Tournament. I’ve played in a lot of all night games, and as a matter of fact that’s not a bad strategy at all, because the first rule of gambling with money is to try to NEVER LOSE IT.

    Do this, and with patience other players with less patience(like Chiarelli)will soon show their own, personal losing styles.

    In my experience, you’ve got to play some middling hands or bluff on occasion unless you’re getting a nice run of cards. You just don’t get the nuts often enough to make that strategy pay.

    Most importantly, I was always taught that in poker, you don’t play the cards, you play the other players. Great great game!

  124. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: Chiarelli doesn’t appear able to be involved in any trades involving “fleecing” unless he’s the “fleecee”.

    I would say both the Maroon and Kassian trades had some fleece involved. I’m liking the early returns on the Aberg acquisition as well.

  125. Side says:

    hunter1909: The refs? Nice one! Not the actual fact that the Ducks beat the Oilers down or anything.

    If it WAS the refs, then McLellan’s number one job should have been calling time outs, having the refs come over then screaming at them until they either threw him out of the arena or else did their jobs properly.

    The last thing you do under pressure, while “leading” a team in the way I think a head coach leads a team is to sit back and do nothing. Yell, scream, get tossed but make sure everyone knows what’s going on. Heck, it might have even fired up Connor McDavid to score a couple of more clutch goals, which of course we may never know for the next 2-3 seasons under the current regime(playoff hockey).

    Weren’t there something like 5 goals going against the Oilers that should have not been goals in that series? That’s a lot to overcome in a playoff series even if you have the best players and the best coach in the world. Regardless of the actual number, when you have a system in place that is supposed to improve the integrity of the game and it backfires and effectively screws over one team over the other, that’s not right. I don’t fault players or coaches for doing their best and then getting screwed over by a force they can’t control.

    Todd should stick up for his players and call out the refs, that I do agree on.

    But this season there seem to be quite a few people who are more than willing to blame Todd for things that he is not entirely responsible for. Could Todd have coached better in the Anaheim series? Sure. But I don’t see that as the reason why the Oilers lost the series.

  126. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I would say both the Maroon and Kassian trades had some fleece involved. I’m liking the early returns on the Aberg acquisition as well.

    Anaheim was a motivated seller of Maroon. They wanted a different player and needed to get out of a big part of that contract

    Pitlick is better than Kassian, at half the price, for the same spot. So Chiarelli may have won the trade for Kassian with Montreal but quickly turned him into an overpaid asset.

  127. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: In my experience, you’ve got to play some middling hands or bluff on occasion unless you’re getting a nice run of cards. You just don’t get the nuts often enough to make that strategy pay.

    Most importantly, I was always taught that in poker, you don’t play the cards, you play the other players. Great great game!

    You’re 100% right.

    Poker really has nothing to do with the cards. Always play your opponents.

    My personal strategy is always to play insane conservative to start, build up a tiny little winning stake, split that stake in half then play with the rest, secure in the knowledge I’m always going to be ahead. This strategy appeals to my mania for control and order.

    I honestly haven’t got a clue how to “win” at poker, despite almost always winning in competitive situations. I prefer to wait out my opponents, until they get impatient/greedy.

  128. hunter1909 says:

    Side: Could Todd have coached better in the Anaheim series? Sure. But I don’t see that as the reason why the Oilers lost the series.

    Hockey is a game of tiny mistakes, inches, etc. Coaches play a huge part, especially in playoff hockey when it’s 7 games winner take all. Laviolette imo clearly out coached MacT in the finals, and I say this believing that up until then MacT had done a first class job. What caused 2006 MacT to fail in game 7 was his lack of compassion, empathy, and support for his player’s fragile psyches.

    MacT was intellectually strong, but to paraphrase Sun Tzu, “morally weak”- whereas Laviolette clearly gave the impression he’d not hesitate to take a bullet for his players.

    Losing Sekera didn’t exactly help either.

  129. Wilde says:

    rickithebear,

    Alright, I’ll bite.

    How is poor defence in ones own zone, as a defenseman, due to chasing offense?

    Defensemen don’t play, in zone coverage or man-man or a system of both, high enough towards the blueline to be blowing coverage based on looking to head up ice.

    When a defenseman is accused of cheating for offense, it’s more in the scenario of ill-advised pinches within the other teams blueline than abandoning coverage in their own zone.

    Also, of the 130 defensemen in the league with 800 minutes or more, Faulk is 63rd in HDCA/60. Firmly in the middle.

  130. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers spend too much time worrying about “potential” of players, overpaying them almost every freaking time. Even Kassian is a good example of this folly.

    Good teams don’t pay for potential. Good teams don’t try to look smart. Good teams pay for results, and if they occasionally lose a player to UFA or whatever, so be it.

  131. BONE207 says:

    smellyglove:
    Hello Lowetide community,

    I’m thinking of embarking on an NHL statistics project, but I’d like to collect feedback from this group before proceeded. Nothing fancy, just an intuitive way to look at boxcars:

    Do you follow a team and ever want to check up on how ex-players are doing? I do. Normally that means I look at the Oilers roster for a given year and manually click or look up players who I know departed. For instance, this year saw the departure of players like Eberle, Hendrickson, Pouliot, Desharnais. It’s kind of annoying when I just want to (from time to time) see how the ex-players are doing. Opening a bunch of different windows, and I may forget that players have moved on (trades, free agents, etc.).

    I’m thinking of creating a site that just shows a list of players that left a team, with their stats for the current season (or, perhaps in a more comprehensive version, stats for multiple years following moving on).
    This is just mainly out of personal interest, but also as a resource for the hockey community.

    So…
    Is this something anyone else would find useful?
    Yes or no, is there a variation of it you would find more useful?
    Does anyone have suggestions for where to scrape simple NHL stats on a daily basis?

    Hey Smelly…that sounds cool. I’d love to look at stuff like that because it’s like history.

    I can’t help with the stats part but I do wish you much success.

  132. meanashell11 says:

    Material pocession: I don’t see it.He’s overpaid for a 4th liner but that is what he is.His hockey sense is limited and forcing him up the lineup is not well advised (same thing goes for Caggiula).I’d try to trade him this summer, if possible.

    I kinda disagree. He is very good on the PK and he certainly knows his role as a shit disturber. I think he should be playing higher in the line up but do not think his 2MM is a problem.

  133. Side says:

    hunter1909: Hockey is a game of tiny mistakes, inches, etc. Coaches play a huge part, especially in playoff hockey when it’s 7 games winner take all. Laviolette imo clearly out coached MacT in the finals, and I say this believing that up until then MacT had done a first class job. What caused 2006 MacT to fail in game 7 was his lack of compassion, empathy, and support for his player’s fragile psyches.

    MacT was intellectually strong, but to paraphrase Sun Tzu, “morally weak”- whereas Laviolette clearly gave the impression he’d not hesitate to take a bullet for his players.

    Losing Sekera didn’t exactly help either.

    Yeah but no amount of coaching can overcome the league screwing up calls that results in you losing 2 or 3 some games in a series that goes to 4.

  134. McSorley33 says:

    Elliote Friedman:

    #25: In his February rankings, Sam had 13 defencemen in the first round, six with right shots. With defence and centre being the most premium spots to pick, ****it’s a really good year to take a shot at a top pairing defender*****
    **************************************************************************************************
    Indeed Elliote….Indeed.

  135. hunter1909 says:

    Side: Yeah but no amount of coaching can overcome the league screwing up calls that results in you losing 2 or 3 some games in a series that goes to 4.

    You may be right. On the other hand, it wasn’t “the league” that was reffing the actual games. It was a pair of real live bodies on the ice. Now, I have very little deep understanding about hockey, but I do understand that a passionate coach instills passion in his players, and hockey lends itself to emotion more than any other team sport I can think of. Fred Shero was passionate, Peter Laviolette was passionate, Scotty Bowman was insanely passionate in his way and so was Glen Sather.

    Perhaps it’s the Celt in me. Us Celts tend to be passionate fools. It’s why we’re good at winning battles, and lousy at winning wars.

    I’m drinking what one Lowetide poster calls an inferior whisky(Isle of Jura) so I’d best put a stop to my bleatings before I make anymore of a fool of myself than I’m already doing.

    : p

  136. Side says:

    hunter1909: You may be right. On the other hand, it wasn’t “the league” that was reffing the actual games. It was a pair of real live bodies on the ice. Now, I have very little deep understanding about hockey, but I do understand that a passionate coach instills passion in his players, and hockey lends itself to emotion more than any other team sport I can think of.Fred Shero was passionate, Peter Laviolette was passionate, Scotty Bowman was insanely passionate in his way and so was Glen Sather.

    Perhaps it’s the Celt in me. Us Celts tend to be passionate fools.It’s why we’re good at winning battles, and lousy at winning wars.

    I’m drinking what one Lowetide poster calls an inferior whisky(Isle of Jura) so I’d best put a stop to my bleatings before I make anymore of a fool of myself than I’m already doing.

    : p

    I still wake up in a cold sweat over hands being in Talbot’s pads, pulling his leg back preventing him from getting in position, and the situation room calling it a “good goal, no interference”.

    The Oilers need a rowdy Celtic coach, imo. None of that ‘McLellan’ variety though, they are too tame.

  137. Lowetide says:

    Please refrain from making claims that cannot be confirmed by independent sources. That belongs on your blog.

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    Random question:

    Assuming Ottawa talks to the Karlsson camp and decides that they can’t afford an extension, so they decide to trade him this summer. Also assuming there is no extension in place prior to the trade, is sending Nugent-Hopkins back in a 1-for-1 deal fair value? So 3 years of Nuge for 1 year of Karlsson. Fair? If close, what does it take to make it fair? Asking for a friend.

  139. jtblack says:

    Lowetide:
    Please refrain from making claims that cannot be confirmed by independent sources. That belongs on your blog.

    The edmonton Oilers are an NHL Hockey Club. Can’t be certain but …

  140. OmJo says:

    Andy Dufresne: Not even close to the Oilers IMHO

    2010Taylor Hall
    2011 RNH
    2012 BUZZZ
    2014 Nurse
    2015 Draisaitl
    2016 McDavid
    2017 Yamamoto

    But I get your point about hitting in EVERY year….whereas we wiffed/struck out in 2012

    2012 lead the team and rookies in goals scored in his rookie season.

    We didn’t strike out in 2012, we struck out in 2013 by hiring Eakins.

  141. OmJo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – maybe blowing it up is the wrong term. But lt and others have said chias inactions last summer are fireable offences.

    – yet the consensus now is chia is crap as is the team is and don’t do more than tinker.

    – so either fire chia and make a lot of moves and we will get better or don’t fire chia and don’t make moves and then hopefully chia gets fired because we won’t be getting better with chia

    This summer and last summer are not comparable.

    Last summer was heading into the final year of McDavid’s ELC and following a 103pt season. Nobody wanted him to blow the team up, we wanted him to improve the team for another playoff run. He made the team worse.

    This summer, we are heading into the first year of McDavid’s new contract following a terrible season. We don’t have the cap space we had last summer to add bodies and we have larger holes thanks in part to Chiarelli’s moves and non-moves (ie, the kids who were being auditioned were playing too high up the batting order because there was nobody else to compete with them).

    We are weak on the wings and weak on the RD position. Our backup goaltending is still a question mark and we are once again a lottery team. Nobody should trust Chiarelli with making any big trades. Seriously, when is the last time he won a big trade? The Kessel trade. Correct me if I’m wrong. So him trading Nuge and/or Klefbom is downright scary.

    He dug this hole for himself, it’s not the fans’ fault he’s done what he’s done…

  142. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: I was actually complimentary of Chiarelli last summer.
    http://lowetide.ca/2017/08/13/re-17-18-peter-chiarelli-danny-says/

    Thank You.

  143. Andy Dufresne says:

    LT,

    Chia has some history of moving roster players in conjunction with signing a free agent.

    Do you not consider RHD John Carlson a hard target?

    Pay Carlson in free agency and move Kelfbom for example.

  144. Wilde says:

    It’s too bad Colin Miller blew up his point totals this year. He would have been a perfect fit at a lower acquisition cost and cap space demand.

  145. Wilde says:

    Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Caggiula-RNH-Aberg
    Puljujarvi-Strome-Slepyshev
    Pakarinen-Khaira-Kassian

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Bear
    Sekera-Russell

    Talbot

    via Jack Micheals

  146. Munny says:

    Let’s go, Oilers!!

    *clap clap*

    I’m still holding a grudge from 1983. Let’s beat these bastards.

  147. Munny says:

    Couple of decent chances in the first segment, but no cash. Comforting to see Larsson back on the blue line..

  148. Munny says:

    I think I saw an actual stick lift

  149. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: To me Nuge is another overpay for Faulk. Faulk is a second pair specialist whose lost his production and Nuge is a lower first line two way centre after a strong year.

    Faulk + a significant prospect, or + a swap of first (Canes) and second (Oilers) picks or the like. Full value or better must come back.

    Also, multiple pieces mention that it is really hard to get a quality young centre. Faulk isn’t in the same echelon as OEL, Doughty, Karlsson etc, strong two way first pair types.

    I have my doubts Faulk or Barrie actually make much of a difference. They Oilers PP problems aren’t to do with the players as much as the cluster it is. The Oilers need 5v5 play far more, a two way player that can push Russell and Benning down the chart right side.

    Trouba would be far better but the Jets might not need a centre now. He also doesn’t like Winnipeg it seems so I doubt Edmonton appeals any more to an east coast American kid.

    Agreed. Would rather have Pesce from Carolina, not for RNH though.

  150. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: I was actually complimentary of Chiarelli last summer.
    http://lowetide.ca/2017/08/13/re-17-18-peter-chiarelli-danny-says/

    – rereading that is interesting. Your view which was consensus was that if everything worked we could win a cup.

    – now though based on actual results the consensus is fire chia.

    – so chia had most everyone believing this team was a bona fide cup contender. Now he should be fired but if not he shouldn’t do much this summer because trying to fix the team by trading pieces in an attempt to improve is a mistake because we are going to be much better next year

    – maybe it’s just me that finds this odd.

    – how can we have a good team that only needs tinkering yet the gm must go?

  151. Munny says:

    Pulock played CMD about as well as I’ve seen any Dman on that last rush.

  152. Munny says:

    Clutterbuck goes full Junior B

  153. OmJo says:

    The fuck kind of bullshit is that?

  154. Munny says:

    And so much for that PP.

  155. OmJo says:

    Why?

  156. Munny says:

    How is that not a penalty?

  157. OmJo says:

    Refs are like “we gave you the Clutterbuck penalty, don’t get carried away here and expect us to call more than one infraction tonight”

  158. OmJo says:

    Atta boy Khaira!

  159. OmJo says:

    Eat shit Clutterbuck

  160. Munny says:

    Little too reminiscent of 70-80s hockey that. But Clutterbuck did make that bed.

  161. russ99 says:

    Khaira would be a cult hero 20 years ago. Man, that was epic.

  162. LMHF#1 says:

    Glad to see somebody finally beat on that loser. Even the NHL won’t discipline him so players have to start hurting him, frankly.

  163. Gerta Rauss says:

    Not a masterpiece but it was a decent first period

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    v4ance:
    From the people I follow on Twitter, Chevaldayoff was ripped by his fanbase for the past few years for not doing enough to improve his teams during the offseasons and at the trade deadlines.He had the drafting, development and hoarding of talent done correctly.He just needed to solve the goaltending after 3 years of Pavelec’s inconsistency.Now with Hellebuyck, they have the quality goalie they’ve always needed.

    This year when he knows he’s got a legitimate contender is when he actually went out and grabbed an upgrade during the trade frenzy.Even then, no one had Stastny going to the Jets because of Chevaldayoff’s shrewdness and slyness.

    I agree with JTBlack.When Chevy did trade, he got full value back on all his trades.Kane was a known “problem child” and he got a great deal from Buffalo for Myers.Compare that to Chiarelli who traded our supposed “locker room problem” Hall at a discount.

    Also, even when there’s been tons of rumblings about Trouba’s desire to go to a US based team, Chevy hasn’t made any panic moves and traded just to rid himself of this issue.NOT making a bad deal is just as important as any other of a GM’s skills.

    Nashville is also a good team at trading for full value.Jones for Johansen, Weber for Subban, Girard for Turris showed Poile’s ability to trade from his strengths (well developed defensive depth) to successfully balance his roster without bleeding value.

    I think Ron Francis was on the right track.As a small market team, he had to watch his budget and develop from within, eschewing big money UFA additions.I believe they are one or two years from being a strong playoff team if they just let their prospects percolate and graduate like the Jets did.

    Agree with all of this except Francis. The team has a gaping hole at C and a bunch of dmen and legit prospects. He should have adressed the issue. Could have done it relatively painlessly.

  165. Munny says:

    “Are the Oilers playing Oscar Klefbom while he’s hurt to showcase him for a trade?

    No, they are not.”

    –Spector

  166. Munny says:

    Nice to see Talbot stop the first shot of a period from a quality look.

  167. Munny says:

    Was wondering if Davey was going to get a mention…

  168. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Random question:

    Assuming Ottawa talks to the Karlsson camp and decides that they can’t afford an extension, so they decide to trade him this summer. Also assuming there is no extension in place prior to the trade, is sending Nugent-Hopkins back in a 1-for-1 deal fair value? So 3 years of Nuge for 1 year of Karlsson. Fair? If close, what does it take to make it fair? Asking for a friend.

    Karlsson has a modified NTC clause. Why would he cosh another tire fire?

  169. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: Karlsson has a modified NTC clause. Why would he cosh another tire fire?

    Because McDavid.

    Karlsson’s NTC is simply a 10 team no trade. Which leaves 20 teams they can deal with – 66% chance the Oiler’s are okay. And it’s not veto power, EK must submit his list upon request.

    Anyhow, you completely missed my point.

  170. texmex says:

    ArmchairGM: Because McDavid.

    Karlsson’s NTC is simply a 10 team no trade. Which leaves 20 teams they can deal with – 66% chance the Oiler’s are okay. And it’s not veto power, EK must submit his list upon request.

    I thought I read that the Oilers are on his no trade list. Dreger mentioned it on the radio. I’ll look for the link

  171. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909: I’ve never played in a poker Tournament. I’ve played in a lot of all night games, and as a matter of fact that’s not a bad strategy at all, because the first rule of gambling with money is to try to NEVER LOSE IT.

    Do this, and with patience other players with less patience(like Chiarelli)will soon show their own, personal losing styles.

    Tournament play much much different than cash game. If you wait too long in tourney you get blinded out.

  172. OmJo says:

    Hickey put all the body weight of not only himself but his entire ancestry on that hit on Lucic lol

  173. Munny says:

    I feel like if we could hit the net we might have a goal by now

  174. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Great shift by Jesse.

  175. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny:
    I feel like if we could hit the net we might have a goal by now

    We’ll never know for sure

  176. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM: Because McDavid.

    Karlsson’s NTC is simply a 10 team no trade. Which leaves 20 teams they can deal with – 66% chance the Oiler’s are okay. And it’s not veto power, EK must submit his list upon request.

    Anyhow, you completely missed my point.

    I would imagine it would take Nuge, Klefbom and a 1st round pick in 2019 (maybe more) to get Karlsson, IF he agreed to the trade.

    That’s a pretty steep price for one season.

  177. AntsOfTheSky says:

    Haha classic Lucic.

  178. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909: You’re 100% right.

    Poker really has nothing to do with the cards. Always play your opponents.

    My personal strategy is always to play insane conservative to start, build up a tiny little winning stake, split that stake in half then play with the rest, secure in the knowledge I’m always going to be ahead. This strategy appeals to my mania for control and order.

    I honestly haven’t got a clue how to “win” at poker, despite almost always winning in competitive situations. I prefer to wait out my opponents, until they get impatient/greedy.

    Poker has a little something to do with the cards. Play enuf and you will eventually see pocket As lose heads up to pocket Ks. The best players win 7 out of 10 times. Even donks can win 3 out of 10 times. Luck still plays a role.

  179. OmJo says:

    Two of the worst defensive teams in the league deciding to showcase they can play conservative hockey.

    I was hoping for McDavid and Tavares trying to out score each other for an hour on the ice. Nope.

  180. Dino says:

    It’s quite amazing to watch how long and through how much the coach will keep Looch on that first line lol

  181. Rebilled says:

    No Oiler will ever hit the broad side of a barn again.

  182. OmJo says:

    Butch Goring talking ish about the 80’s Oilers tsk tsk

  183. Munny says:

    Natch.

  184. OmJo says:

    Lol.

  185. Munny says:

    Nuge takes Drai’s spot…

  186. Munny says:

    Didn’t think that could be on the Oil

    Edit: other than the typical incompetence

  187. OmJo says:

    Only thing more boring than this game is the NY commentary…

  188. Rocknrolla says:

    New way to watch the games… Crack open the laptop catch up on emails, social media, YouTube videos… Anytime you hear McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nurse look up at the screen!

  189. Munny says:

    That’s a confident Khaira… carrying the puck from behind his own net into the OZone.

  190. Munny says:

    C’mon team. Don’t be slumpbusters tonight. Get a frickin goal.

  191. Spooky Lynx says:

    Down by one with under 10 minutes remaining. TMac puts Bear out with 93 and 97. Me likely.

  192. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lots of line juggling and nothing seems to be working at the moment

  193. Munny says:

    Whew

  194. Spooky Lynx says:

    Draisaitl in OT?

  195. Gerta Rauss says:

    oh thank the Lord that McDavid kid plays for us

  196. Gerta Rauss says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Draisaitl in OT?

    I like Drai in OT

  197. OmJo says:

    Never doubt a team with Connor McDavid.

    Advice to myself.

  198. Gerta Rauss says:

    Well this is exciting

  199. russ99 says:

    Post. Ugh.

  200. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m a little boggled he doesn’t always fly in there. It messes up goalies so bad.

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