Finding Jujhar 2.0

Each season, around the beginning of spring, I start looking at the farm club more closely. I compare the Condors to the Detroit system, run the NHLE’s and project kids into the future. This spring, or rather today, we’re going in search of the next Jujhar Khaira. Chances are he hasn’t made himself known yet and fair warning: He may not be on the roster until fall.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

JETS FORWARDS AT 20 (AHL)

  • This is information culled from prospects-stats.com, a brilliant resource for real research and backyard (basement?) nerds like me.
  • Before we look at 20-year olds from the Edmonton system 2014-18, I wanted a comparable. I chose the Jets instead of the Red Wings or Flames, who I have used previously. Why? They are a successful team who have been using their system effectively for some time now.
  • Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic are home runs now, we are waiting on the typical AHLers from this group.
  • What do I mean by ‘typical AHLers’? From the 2017 edition of my annual Farm Workers post: Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. It’s the Khaira’s we’re looking for here, and maybe we simply can’t identify these players in their rookie AHL seasons. They need more time.
  • 5×5 P1/60 is primary points per 60, and it’s likely anyone posting a number near or north of 1.00 has a chance to play in the NHL for a time.

OILERS FORWARDS AT 20 (AHL)

  • Here is the Oilers list of forwards who qualify from 2014-18. Like Roslovic, JP gets an asterisk because of being less than 20.
  • Khaira’s estimated time on ice at 20 (less than 12 minutes 5×5) is about the same as Scott Kosmachuk who was a rookie at the same time in the AHL.
  • Khaira’s 5×5 primary points-per-60 in Bakersfield is the second lowest total in the entire group. What were the Oilers doing to obscure his offense? I expect he was getting depth minutes and that contributed, maybe it was bad luck or maybe it was residue from playing with Kevin Constantine in his final year of junior. I’ll look at this group during 21 and 22 seasons in the coming months, maybe we can further identify something about Khaira’s development. As recently as the expansion draft, where I believe the organization signed the player to a two-year deal in an effort to tempt Vegas away from Griffin Reinhart, I don’t think Khaira was expected to have an NHL season like 2017-18.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi, Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic are the most impressive players in the group. I’m a big fan of Nic Petan and would suggest he’s next for an NHL career.
  • Bogdan Yakimov didn’t develop but he had a good season at 20.
  • Marco Roy had a reasonable season at 20, wonder if he’ll work his way into a long pro career.

JETS BLUE AT 20 (AHL)

  • The Jets have some interesting names here, all of whom played more than 50 games in the AHL at age 20. TOI estimates have all but Kostelak playing prominent roles at 5×5.
  • Josh Morrissey is the famous name here, I thought he would have a larger impact offensively in pro. No matter, he has grown into a useful NHL defenseman.
  • Sami Niku is not well known, we talked about him on the blog leading up to the 2015 draft. His usage and numbers this season suggest he might be someone.

OILERS BLUE AT 20 (AHL)

  • Ethan Bear is the star in this group, that’s the most impressive number among defenders and would be a handsome number for a forward. His adjustment to pro hockey this season has been very impressive.
  • Caleb Jones hasn’t spiked as has Bear, but it is important to remember defensemen never develop in a straight line. We’ll look for him to take a step forward next season but the numbers here are solid.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Ethan Bear doesn’t fit with the Jujhar Khaira story, he grabbed playing time and messed with opponents out of the box. Caleb Jones? Played more of a feature role but the shoe fits a little better there. Khaira’s career path, once he reached pro, doesn’t really match anyone on the list and maybe that’s the point. Could we have seen Khaira emerge sooner if his usage had been more aggressive? This is the age old argument about the Oilers’ development model. I don’t think any of the names on the Oilers list failed from lack of use at age 20 in the AHL. Musil and Moroz were off the pace but that may have been on merit. Khaira’s estimated time on ice was more than Jansen Harkins and Michael Spacek and in the range of Scott Kosmachuk.

I think the story of Jujhar Khaira might not be that he showed up in the AHL at 20 as this player we see now, but that he became this player during the 21-24 timeline. Not certain we can expect the scenario to be duplicated. Nice numbers on Ethan Bear, though.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’re off and running and dealing with the time change. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. Expansion in Seattle.
  • Adam Stanley, golf journalist. Is Tiger back?
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Is Connor McDavid worthy of the Hart Trophy this season?
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. Catch the madness!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

120 Responses to "Finding Jujhar 2.0"

  1. CrazyCoach says:

    Hey LT,

    As you know, I’m a huge fan of Khaira and Bear.

    Glad to see they are panning out. Here in PG, people still talk about the persistence and perseverance of Khaira. Kid was determined to be a big league player. All it took was someone taking a gamble on him. Glad it was the Oilers.

    Bear, to my eye, played with the same persistence as Khaira. He is determined to be a big league player as well.

    Now hopefully, the Oilers can find more players like them.

  2. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT in the “He may not be on the roster until fall.” category, how does a former Lowetide target, Ryan Sproul look to you at this point. He’s now with the Rangers but still toiling in the AHL. He is also a UFA this summer.

    Bear and Jones (heck even Mantha) may be ahead of him but RHD are the coin of the realm and if he can’t crack this post-deadline Rangers D he may not be in their future.

    Worth a look of has the moment passed?

  3. Aitch says:

    Until the Oilers start turning more than 1 AHLer into a legit player more than once every five years, I have no faith in the Oilers ability to develop players. And it’s not just this management group’s issue. You use the example of Cleary, Pisani and Chimera as who you’re looking to, and that’s both telling and sad. 1) That was more than a decade ago that those three were patrolling the ice for the Bulldogs. 2) I believe having three forwards develop at the AHL level into actual bonafide NHLers at the same time is pretty much unheard of in Oilers history.

    Around the time that the Bulldogs were producing those three, I did a study on the Oilers farm system. At the time, it was obvious that the Oilers mantra has always been to push players to the bigs as fast as possible. The list of EDM draftees (or college/junior free agents) who’ve started their career in the Oilers systems and was properly developed (ie. played more than half a season) on the farm before having a legit NHL career is very short. For the most part, good Oilers don’t spend much time in the A. It’s as if the minors are the Oilers kryptonite.

  4. Oilman99 says:

    The Oilers inability to draft and develop players is the laughing stock of the NHL. When you have an AHL team that is always at the bottom of the standings it shows how incompetent their scouting has been.

  5. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Aitch,

    – This is a great point…This year, Pool. Jar and Bear all “graduated” and played in the NHL

    – I think this is different than in years past: none of them were gifted the spots due to a lousy roster

    – But without a stream of players who can do the roles that LT says is the job of AHL development, the GM is in a tough spot. Sure he can “steal” a Maroon every once in awhile, and sign UFA’s like Sek, and find guys like Benning (or Caggs), out of college, and find a Davidson on waiver. (all awesome GM moves)

    – But without a strong pipeline, the pressure to makes moves at the NHL level is hard, and like a day-trader, over time you can’t always grow your equity.

    – So without NHL-ready D, he’s also going to make trades like picks for D, because the farm has none, and like a day-trader lose. (now between the Griff trade, Sek Russel, Benning, and Davidson, I think he’s done a fine job day-trading to get a lot better on D, but clearly in minority on this)

    – I think the analogy of being a day-trader works. It’s hard to make a living if you are day-trading. Just like it’s hard for a GM to improve solely by making trades. You need core holdings that grow over time to accumulate wealth: AHL players being like the dividend stocks that grow over time.

    – Chia has to almost soley day-trade to improve, he doesn’t have any assets that are growing so he’s at the mercy of the market: like day traders your going to win some lose. Some wins and losses more substantial than others. In the absence of the “wealth” that a strong farm system provides, tough to make a living…

  6. frjohnk says:

    Khaira has been a fantastic player in our bottom 6. Very cheap, has some offensive pop. Can PK, can carry the puck through the neutral zone with speed and skill, physical.

    Thank goodness that Vegas claimed Reinhart and not Khaira.

    Khaira has another year at $675k, if he takes another step forward and cements himself as a top 9 NHLer next year/guy that can play top 6 for awhile, he will get a substansial raise in 19-20.

    Love this kid.

  7. godot10 says:

    Oilman99:
    The Oilers inability to draft and develop players is the laughing stock of the NHL. When you have an AHL team that is always at the bottom of the standings it shows how incompetent their scouting has been.

    They were not at the bottom when Nelson was coach.

    He put Petry and Klefbom into the NHL. (and Schultz**)
    He reclaimed Taylor Chorney’s career. Alex Plante made an AHL all star team.
    Brandon Davidson
    Martin Marincin
    He reclaimed Colin McDonald who went on to the NHL for a significant period.
    Magnus Paajarvi
    Tyler Pitlick
    Anton Lander and Marc Arcobello
    Jujhar had his first critical development year under Nelson

    All in four seasons. The only four seasons the farm team has made the playoffs in over a decade.

  8. Connoreah says:

    Just a couple random observations about guys that will make it….

    – JJ looked like a question mark until he showed confidence with the puck on his stick in an NHL game. I remember a play earlier this year in the Fall where he beat a guy in his own and cut in front of his own net (!!!!), and from that point on he looked like he belonged. He had confidence in himself.

    – JP shows flashes of that confidence every few games, but not consistently. I see it when he’s rushing through the neutral zone. When the confidence isn’t present he looks to pass it off while flying through the blue lines every time, or fires a shot on net from just inside the blue line. When he has it he dangles and uses his creativity. Next year I expect he’ll be more consistent. Five years from now I bet he dominates.

    – Ethan Bear showed it on his first shift. He just looks very, very comfortable with the puck on his stick every single time and even makes the odd ‘risky’ pass (and does so effectively). Prior to his call up I wanted him with 2 years in the AHL before becoming an option. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him challenge for a roster spot next year if Chiarelli doesn’t bring in another RHD in the offseason.

  9. Woogie63 says:

    The Oiler’s were a mess, PC should get some good mark on the strategy to turn this around

    17/18
    Bear
    Jones
    Mantha
    Gambardella
    Starlett

    18/19
    Yamamoto
    Benson
    Safin
    Hebig
    Muir
    Vesel
    Lagesson
    Wells
    Skinner

    19/20
    Maksimov
    Berglund
    Niemelainen
    Samorukov
    Desharnais

    20/21
    Brind’Amour
    McPhee
    Rasanen
    Kemp
    Cairns
    Marino

  10. oilersfan says:

    I really appreciate you people here with your ability to find things out on the internet.

    It is notable to me that since Mark Letestu has been traded, the PK has been quite good. Could it been as simple that the system they used, that works for other teams, didnt work because he was too small and too slow? If so, that is on the coaches as they didnt take him off. At this point, it is apparent to me that the reason the PP doesnt work is because Lucic is on it, just like the PK didnt work because Letestu was on it. This is 100% a deployment issue and why the entire coaching staff deserves to be fired. Their 5×5 play is a playoff team. Their special teams isnt even an AHL team.

    Could any of you folks who like to write articles look at Letestu’s wowy on the PK? especially since he has been gone? it appears to have been a one man issue, again, partly on him for not being good enough but more on the coaching staff for putting him out there over and over. I found one site that shows the goals against/60 on the PK and note that Khaira and Strome are the best forward group, and surprisingly, Sekera is the best dman, although Davidson was better while here (PK only). Also, Cagiulla should never see the PK again, unless its a year after doing it in the AHL, and for all the hate here, Pakarinen is very good on the PK, and would be worth the roster spot, imo, just for that reason.

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If the Oilers had depth the Condors would be better. However they graduate anybody with a half hearted hope of sticking in the bigs.

    As Holland has said part of the slow AHL development was the quality of the Wings. The Preds marinate players but again there are no gimme roster spots on the parent club.

    If the Preds start losing players to the cap or UFA they might not be in the position to do things exactly as they are now.

    If PC can set a strong big league roster we might start seeing first round picks taking 2-3 years to make it, which unless brilliant is ideal.

    I would like to see a stronger support system down there especially for players from outside NA. Getting teenagers settled is as important as teaching them hockey for long term success.

  12. vinotintazo says:

    oilersfan: Could any of you folks who like to write articles look at Letestu’s wowy on the PK?

    I believe Letestu’s #s were not the problem, it was more Kassian, Caggiula and McD. Getting eaten alive. I think those 3 see little PK time now.

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    JP is asterisked in the chart.

    But it should be noted that the 2016-17 season was his 18 year old season and hes in a 20 yr old chart.

    I sometimes wonder what the organization thinks of him. If they assess him like I do, his current ceiling is somewhere between a high end first liner and a high end middle sixer. For me, in terms of his potential, the latter applies at his time.

    One wonders, if he does not take a significant step forward next year in terms of offensive production, what then? (Does he then enter Sam Bennett territory?)

    Or does the organization already have him pegged as a value contract at middle six. Cause he has almost no history of being a scorer.

  14. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If the Oilers had depth the Condors would be better. However they graduate anybody with a half hearted hope of sticking in the bigs.

    As Holland has said part of the slow AHL development was the quality of the Wings. The Preds marinate players but again there are no gimme roster spots on the parent club.

    If the Preds start losing players to the cap or UFA they might not be in the position to do things exactly as they are now.

    If PC can set a strong big league roster we might start seeing first round picks taking 2-3 years to make it, which unless brilliant is ideal.

    I would like to see a stronger support system down there especially for players from outside NA. Getting teenagers settled is as important as teaching them hockey for long term success.

    You’re right. It’s easier for teams with a good NHL roster to let their prospects marinate in the AHL. But even so, bad teams like the Oil have to resist the temptation of filling holes with kids who have just been drafted. It hurts the team in the long run and the player. Already I’m hearing people say Bear should start the season in the NHL. Or Yammer has a spot in the NHL unless he poops the bed. This is all bad stuff and the development strategy of losing teams. If you ask me, Bear already looks better than Benning. That’s not a good reason for keeping him in the NHL though.

  15. Scungilli Slushy says:

    oilersfan: Also, Cagiulla should never see the PK again, unless its a year after doing it in the AHL, and for all the hate here, Pakarinen is very good on the PK, and would be worth the roster spot, imo, just for that reason.

    I don’t get the Caggiula love from the coaches. He does very little that’s helpful 5v5 to my eye although his PP/60 makes him look the best of the tweener bunch. However I believe FRJOHN pointed out he gets demolished in GA.

    If I want an energy guy I’d take Kassian who at least commands respect when he decides to skate and forecheck because he can hit in a meaningful way .

    For a bottom 6 forward defensive play is a must, as is playing sound hockey if they get bumped up. Slepy is infuriating because he does play a good looking game, but just can’t seem to get all his ducks in a row. Like lately the guy can’t remember how to win a puck battle or keep two hands on his stick when in them.

    Pak is basically useless 5v5, but doesn’t get scored on and can PK. That is my base line for an NHL forward. They should still aim higher. Players like Winnik are more helpful and still cheap, and around every summer.

  16. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: You’re right. It’s easier for teams with a good NHL roster to let their prospects marinate in the AHL. But even so, bad teams like the Oil have to resist the temptation of filling holes with kids who have just been drafted.It hurts the team in the long run and the player. Already I’m hearing people say Bear should start the season in the NHL. Or Yammer has a spot in the NHL unless he poops the bed. This is all bad stuff and the development strategy of losing teams. If you ask me, Bear already looks better than Benning. That’s not a good reason for keeping him in the NHL though.

    True. LT pointed out that top level skill forwards don’t see much AHL time, so if it’s only a few games that isn’t out of the ordinary.

    D however have a lot more to get sorted to play in the NHL. Yama ‘just’ has to score.

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    Who are the top 5 current roster players most likely to not be here in the fall? (excluding AHL Fayne, Gryba)

    Avituu
    Montoya
    Cammelleri
    Caguilia
    ?

    Pakirinen? Kassian? Benning?

  18. Doug McLachlan says:

    Caggiula would have to clear waivers to be sent to Bakersfield and that may well be where he ends up after next camp. Easier to slide people through in the flurry of activity around camp when every other team is still in love with their own prospects/players.

    I think there are some desirable elements in his game (sure he impressed management and teammates when he popped the cage to drop the gloves recently – grit/60 and all that) but he is not some budding superstar find. Potentially useful bottom 12 NHLer is still a fine NCAA undrafted signing by Chia. Unfortunately they weren’t able to risk losing him on waivers. Maybe with more depth you take that chance.

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Caggiula would have to clear waivers to be sent to Bakersfield and that may well be where he ends up after next camp.Easier to slide people through in the flurry of activity around camp when every other team is still in love with their own prospects/players.

    I think there are some desirable elements in his game (sure he impressed management and teammates when he popped the cage to drop the gloves recently – grit/60 and all that) but he is not some budding superstar find.Potentially useful bottom 12 NHLer is still a fine NCAA undrafted signing by Chia.Unfortunately they weren’t able to risk losing him on waivers.Maybe with more depth you take that chance.

    I am sure they like his pluckiness. I’m not sure many players worry about his hitting or fighting at his size, and he isn’t good at anything at the NHL level.

    He’s being carried IMO, not contributing anywhere. I see Slepy as being a more helpful linemate for skilled players, even he’s just a snakebit and is currently having other issues he was once doing better at. He makes smarter and better read plays and is better at forechecking IMO.

    I’d like to see Cags and even Pak upgraded. Along with Montoya and a right side D to push Russell and Benning down a notch. Kassian also has to be smarter and more consistent or he’s not worth the critical mistakes and cap hit.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Who are the top 5 current roster players most likely to not be here in the fall? (excluding AHL Fayne, Gryba)

    Avituu
    Montoya
    Cammelleri
    Caguilia
    ?

    Pakirinen? Kassian? Benning?

    – Sleppy
    – RNH
    – Benning
    – Pak
    – Cags
    – Cami

    – RNH and Benning for an “upgrade” in D

    – I hope they don’t do this trade, but they can’t come back with the same D corps I don’t believe, hoping everyone is better. It would take a lot of “balls” to just bring back the same D corps IMO

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    frjohnk:
    Khaira has been a fantastic player in our bottom 6.Very cheap, has some offensive pop.Can PK,can carry the puck through the neutral zone with speed and skill, physical.

    Thank goodness that Vegas claimed Reinhart and not Khaira.

    Khaira has another year at $675k, if he takes another step forward and cements himself as a top 9 NHLer next year/guy that can play top 6 for awhile, he will get a substansial raise in 19-20.

    Love this kid.

    Agreed. Its part of the genius of Chiarelli that he gets no credit for. He gets Vegas to take Reinhart AND he signs JJ to a value contract at league minimum….Just WOW…there are no words….and thats in direct competetion with the leagues shiniest newsest bestest GM George McPhee. (must of had incriminating pictures of McPhee from after last years Awards night party in Vegas) (You remember, the one where Chia was up for GM of the year as voted on by the other 29 GMs….You know…. the ONLY other ELITE level professional hockey general managers in the world……anyway, they really tied one on that night….but hey…what happens in Vegas…)

    That AND……he moves Eberle as a poison pill to tank NYI/Snows season in retaliation for the Reinhart deal…….payback is bitch…..Party on Garth!

    AND he steals away a much coveted 3C who plays both PP and PK

    ALL while saving $3.5 million in cap space.

    The man puts the Dough $$ in the word Dotard.

    Edit: I wouldnt be surprised if Chia was the Puppet Master manipulaitng the strings of Snow behind the scene to get him to move Hamonic to the Flames to help their season tank too…in retaliation for Bostons Hamilton to Calgary deal. ……. moo haha….MOO HAHA!……MOOOOOO HAHAHAHAHA!!!

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    For those thinking I must of forgotten my sarcasm tildes……..I did not……

  23. Gerta Rauss says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – RNH and Benning for an “upgrade” in D

    – I hope they don’t do this trade, but they can’t come back with the same D corps I don’t believe, hoping everyone is better. It would take a lot of “balls” to just bring back the same D corps IMO

    It would take balls and at first glance, bringing back the same D won’t fly in the current climate in Edmonton.

    If they fire the coach and staff(and maybe Chiarelli as well) the landscape would change significantly, and a “measured” approach this summer may be possible

    I’d bring all the D back and hope for healthy seasons and improved results-this same D core contributed to the 103 point season just last year after all

    I’d be looking to move Russell and Sekera, but really, the market for either of them this summer is slim to none-play them both in 18/19 and move them both July 2019

  24. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gerta Rauss: It would take balls and at first glance, bringing back the same D won’t fly in the current climate in Edmonton.

    If they fire the coach and staff(and maybe Chiarelli as well) the landscape would change significantly, and a “measured” approach this summer may be possible

    I’d bring all the D back and hope for healthy seasons and improved results-this same D core contributed to the 103 point season just last year after all

    I’d be looking to move Russell and Sekera, but really, the market for either of them this summer is slim to none-play them both in 18/19 and move them both July 19

    I really Really like your posts Gerta….youre one of my favorite posters……but respectfully, this particular post is sounding alot like Steve Tambellini to me. Its seems heavy on hope and looking at options that you yourself state are questionable at best. But I get it…your just riffing like the rest of us……kinda generalizing…

    Edit: I guess my point is……Chiarelli did last summer almost exactly what youre prescribing he do this summer and he gets lambasted (at least on this site) daily for it. To ask him to rinse and repeat doesnt jive with the daily narrative …….

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    Apropos nothing, I thought I’d share a list of Oiler’s forwards 5×5 primary points/60 so far this season:

    Mcdavid 2.14
    Draisaitl 2.01
    Puljujarvi 1.32
    Maroon 1.30**
    Nugent-Hopkins 1.29
    Strome 1.26
    Khaira 1.23
    Slepyshev 1.22
    Cammalleri 1.10**
    Caggiula 0.99
    Kassian 0.84
    Lucic 0.83
    Letestu 0.82**
    Aberg 0.77
    Pakarinen 0.67

    In this light, I’m not concerned with Puljujarvi’s ability to replace Maroon, Slepyshev to replace Cammalleri and Khaira to replace Letestu – they’ve already proven they can do so and more. However, who replaces these players?
    – Caggiula has already been gifted top-6 minutes without much result, so I doubt he’s a realistic candidate.
    – Aberg is 58, 3-8-11 in the NHL lifetime, but his career AHL numbers suggest an NHLE of 24, so there may be a “Khaira 2.0” candidate there. (Last season he played 56 games in the AHL, producing an NHLE of 36!).
    – Kassian might be another. Last year he produced points at his career rate (0.30 / game) and had a 5×5 P1/60 of 1.04, basically par with Cammalleri. With a better center (read: not Letestu*) he could possibly increase his production to something like Khaira and Slepyshev are producing this year. *This year Kassian’s GF% with Letestu was 35% in 393 minutes, 60% in 188 minutes without. His GF% in limited minutes with the Oilers top 3 centers is 50% or higher.
    – Lucic should regress to the meat – based on his pre-Christmas play there’s still a player there. Not a $6M player, mind you, but somewhat better than replacement level.
    – Pakarinen has enough track that we know what we have – a PKer / 4th liner who can chip in a point or two here and there. I don’t expect that to change.
    – Yamamoto looks like he’ll be a serious candidate for an NHL job in October. I think we’re all familiar with his stats so I won’t repost them here, but safe to say his post-WJC production suggests NHL-ready.

    The big issue here, as I see it, is the lack of prospects bubbling up. All these guys listed (besides Yamamoto) are already with the big club and I don’t see any farm hands pushing for a spot next fall. I was hoping Gambardella would be an option after 1 year of AHL, but that looks unlikely right now. Brad Malone? Colin Larkin? Tyler Vesel? I don’t see it, personally.

    Edit: 18 months out and it’s likely that Maksimov, Safin and Benson are pushing, so this winger issue might be a short-term one.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Apropos nothing, I thought I’d share a list of Oiler’s forwards 5×5 primary points/60 so far this season:

    Mcdavid 2.14
    Draisaitl 2.01
    Puljujarvi 1.32
    Maroon 1.30**
    Nugent-Hopkins 1.29
    Strome 1.26
    Khaira 1.23
    Slepyshev 1.22
    Cammalleri 1.10**
    Caggiula 0.99
    Kassian 0.84
    Lucic 0.83
    Letestu 0.82**
    Aberg 0.77
    Pakarinen 0.67

    In this light, I’m not concerned with Puljujarvi’s ability to replace Maroon, Slepyshev to replace Cammalleri and Khaira to replace Letestu – they’ve already proven they can do so and more. However, who replaces these players?– Caggiula has already been gifted top-6 minutes without much result, so I doubt he’s a realistic candidate.– Aberg is 58, 3-8-11 in the NHL lifetime, but his career AHL numbers suggest an NHLE of 24, so there may be a “Khaira 2.0” candidate there. (Last season he played 56 games in the AHL, producing an NHLE of 36!).– Kassian might be another. Last year he produced points at his career rate (0.30 / game) and had a 5×5 P1/60 of 1.04, basically par with Cammalleri. With a better center (read: not Letestu*) he could possibly increase his production to something like Khaira and Slepyshev are producing this year. *This year Kassian’s GF% with Letestu was 35% in 393 minutes, 60% in 188 minutes without. His GF% in limited minutes with the Oilers top 3 centers is 50% or higher.– Lucic should regress to the meat – based on his pre-Christmas play there’s still a player there. Not a $6M player, mind you, but somewhat better than replacement level.– Pakarinen has enough track that we know what we have – a PKer / 4th liner who can chip in a point or two here and there. I don’t expect that to change.

    The big issue here, as I see it, is the lack of prospects bubbling up. All these guys listed are already with the big club and I don’t see any farm hands pushing for a spot next fall. I was hoping Gambardella would be an option after 1 year of AHL, but that looks unlikely right now. Brad Malone? Colin Larkin? I don’t see it, personally.

    Honestly, sincerely, I think you are reading Chias mind here.

  27. Melvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Two things.

    I tend to agree with you on the day trading gig. I put 60-80 hour weeks into that gig over the course of about 6 years. Not so much day trading, but more in line with swing trading. And I can’t forget that month in ’06. Eleven positive trades in row – followed by 13 duds in a row. The result? Down 2k for the month.

    I churned a 250k trading account about 10 times that year – and netted about 30k after taxes, oddly enough, mostly in “accidental” divvies on the stocks I held longer term.

    Two slaps in the face followed. CRA sends a letter requesting all my trade accounts.That’s about 2.5 mil worth of useless paper in a bankers box.

    The galleriist who had a dozen slides of my studies calls up and suggests she can move out the big ass versions to her clients with the mcmansions and the double height walls in a range of 5 to 12k a pop – like right now.

    There’s an analogy somewhere in there about barking up the wrong tree at the wrong time – in Chia’s hockey world.

    So I went back to square one. My inherent producer only, stick to the main gig, inherent nut. Robbing Peter to pay Paul doesn’t work.

    I suspect this blog has already concluded the obvious.

    The other thing. You’re in TO? I’m about to book for late Aug prior to Europe in September.

  28. Gerta Rauss says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Thanks for the kind words

    I think you’re overlooking the part about firing the coach and all of his staff

  29. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne: Honestly, sincerely, I think you are reading Chias mind here.

    Thats the forward group……whats he thinking about the defense and the goaltendering?

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – RNH and Benning for an “upgrade” in D

    Benning (or Bear) could be a key part of an Athanasiou acquisition – I believe the requirement is a top D prospect / young player and a 2nd pick.

    IF management is comfortable playing McDavid / Draisaitl / Strome / Khaira down the middle next year with no cover for injury (I’m not), then that makes RNH expendable. Nugent-Hopkins alone would bring back a decent righty defender, and other assets could be added in order to increase the return.

  31. Material pocession says:

    Andy Dufresne: I really Really like your posts Gerta….youre one of my favorite posters……but respectfully, this particular post is sounding alot like Steve Tambellini to me. Its seems heavy on hope and looking at options that you yourself state are questionable at best. But I get it…your just riffing like the rest of us……kinda generalizing…

    Edit: I guess my point is……Chiarelli did last summer almost exactly what youre prescribing he do this summer and he gets lambasted (at least on this site) daily for it.To ask him to rinse and repeat doesnt jive with the daily narrative …….

    That’s the point: He didn’t do enough last summer when the holes were glaring (Sekera injury, backup goalie, relying on unproven wingers). Going into next year, the holes are not as obvious because of health, regression, and experience; therefore, he should be doing less. It would be nice to upgrade certain positions but he doesn’t need to force a trade (i.e. lose value) this time around. For example, trading the 1st round draft pick for Mike Hoffman would be an epic blunder. Hoffman for Benson and a draft pick would be a smart upgrade. He needs to make upgrades with the smaller pieces that he has available, if possible.

  32. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Thanks for the kind words

    I think you’re overlooking the part about firing the coach and all of his staff

    Youre correct…..I did that purposefully because I strongly disagree with the idea and didnt want to say anything that would possibly be construed with being rude or beligerent or whatever.

    I have major crticisms of some of Chiarellis moves so I completely respect other people critcisms. I only criticsize the critics who are rude and patently false in their statements….like Chia is an Idiot etc.

    Anyway, we definitely disagree on thsi point as I am heavily in favour of keeping Chia in the near term……..But intellegent people can and should disagree….as long as they do so respectfully…..

    I have a postive Pavalonian type response when I see your name pop up….

    Edit: I mean I dont drool or anything….but

  33. Melvis says:

    And what has ,or does LT read?

    Bernard Malamud, The Natural?

    Golf in the Kingdom? Michael Murphy.

    Ray Kinsella. Field of Dreams?

    Bill “Spaceman” Lee?

  34. Material pocession says:

    ArmchairGM: Benning (or Bear) could be a key part of an Athanasiou acquisition – I believe the requirement is a top D prospect / young player and a 2nd pick.

    IF management is comfortable playing McDavid / Draisaitl / Strome / Khaira down the middle next year with no cover for injury (I’m not), then that makes RNH expendable. Nugent-Hopkins alone would bring back a decent righty defender, and other assets could be added in order to increase the return.

    I think you answered that last scenario. There isn’t enough cover for injury to make Nuge expendable. That winger and RH defenseman need to be found with lesser pieces and/or one of the left handed Dmen on the roster.

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    ArmchairGM: Benning (or Bear) could be a key part of an Athanasiou acquisition – I believe the requirement is a top D prospect / young player and a 2nd pick.

    IF management is comfortable playing McDavid / Draisaitl / Strome / Khaira down the middle next year with no cover for injury (I’m not), then that makes RNH expendable. Nugent-Hopkins alone would bring back a decent righty defender, and other assets could be added in order to increase the return.

    If we move RNH for a righty D, our D core would be almost $30M with 6 guys making $4M plus. This would require a trade of one of the current D (I’m assuming for a winger)

    Moving Klef, Nurse or Larsson is a non starter for me-that’s how I arrive at a quiet summer wrt the defence group.

    If we can move Sekera or Russell for a RHD, hey, I’m all for it.

    I just don’t see it

    *edit-I’m giving Nurse and the RHD acquisition contracts of $4M plus in the above scenario

    *edit2-I really like Athanasiou as a target-I’m not sure how we get him or pay him, but that’s for another day

  36. Andy Dufresne says:

    Melvis:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Two things.

    I tend to agree with you on the day trading gig. I put 60-80 hour weeks into that gig over the course of about 6 years. Not so much day trading, but more in line with swing trading. And I can’t forget that month in ’06. Eleven positive trades in row – followed by 13 duds in a row. The result? Down 2k for the month.

    I churned a 250k trading account about 10 times that year – and netted about 30k after taxes, oddly enough, mostly in “accidental” divvies on the stocks I held longer term.

    Two slaps in the face followed. CRA sends a letter requesting all my trade accounts.That’s about 2.5 mil worth of useless paper in a bankers box.

    The galleriist who had a dozen slides of my studies calls up and suggests she can move out the big ass versions to her clients with the mcmansions and the double height walls in a range of 5 to 12k a pop – like right now.

    There’s an analogy somewhere in there about barking up the wrong tree at the wrong time – in Chia’s hockey world.

    So I went back to square one. My inherent producer only, stick to the main gig, inherent nut. Robbing Peter to pay Paul doesn’t work.

    I suspect this blog has already concluded the obvious.

    The other thing. You’re in TO?I’m about to book for late Aug prior to Europe in September.

    Thank you for sharing those numbers……your candor is refreshing and informative.

  37. ArmchairGM says:

    Question for the group:

    Let’s say draft day comes and the Oilers hold 7th pick. Six picks in and the impact forwards are gone, as are Dahlin (obviously) and Boqvist. Do you (A) hold the pick and who do you draft with it, or (B) trade it to NYI for their 12th pick + Calgary’s 15th pick – and who do you draft with those picks?

    Note: I realize that, based on points %, NYI’s two picks currently sit at 10th and 12th, making (B) an unrealistic proposition from their POV, but I’m expecting a late, futile push by the Flames.

    Edit: by impact forwards I mean Svetchnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom.

  38. ArmchairGM says:

    Gerta Rauss: If we move RNH for a righty D, our D core would be almost $30M with 6 guys making $4M plus. This would require a trade of one of the current D (I’m assuming for a winger)

    Moving Klef, Nurse or Larsson is a non starter for me-that’s how I arrive at a quiet summer wrt the defence group.

    If we can move Sekera or Russell for a RHD, hey, I’m all for it.

    I just don’t see it

    *edit-I’m giving Nurse and the RHD acquisition contracts of $4M plus in the above scenario

    *edit2-I really like Athanasiou as a target-I’m not sure how we get him or pay him, but that’s for another day

    Check capfriendly, the numbers work out based on paying AA whatever you think Strome is worth ($2.75M?), Nurse and the new RD at $4.5M and an $80M cap. Actually, you’d have nearly $5M in cap space, not including bonuses.

  39. Gerta Rauss says:

    ArmchairGM: Let’s say draft day comes and the Oilers hold 7th pick. Six picks in and the impact forwards are gone, as are Dahlin (obviously) and Boqvist. Do you (A) hold the pick and who do you draft with it, or (B) trade it to NYI for their 12th pick + Calgary’s 15th pick – and who do you draft with those picks?

    If Boqvist is gone you ruined my draft strategy..:)

    Maybe we trade down with Detroit and acquire Athanasiou that way-VOR has mentioned this previously

    DET has 4 picks in the first 2 rounds

    just spitballing

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    Gerta Rauss: If Boqvist is gone you ruined my draft strategy..:)

    Maybe we trade down with Detroit and acquire Athanasiou that way-VOR has mentioned this previously

    DET has 4 picks in the first 2 rounds

    just spitballing

    Interesting. A/o today Detroit picks 6th, so the only way to make this work is to trade 7th for Vegas’ 1st rounder (held by Detroit), which is currently at 28th overall. Does 7th for 28th + AA sound about right to you?

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Question for the group:

    Let’s say draft day comes and the Oilers hold 7th pick. Six picks in and the impact forwards are gone, as are Dahlin (obviously) and Boqvist. Do you (A) hold the pick and who do you draft with it, or (B) trade it to NYI for their 12th pick + Calgary’s 15th pick – and who do you draft with those picks?

    Note: I realize that, based on points %, NYI’s two picks currently sit at 10th and 12th, making (B) an unrealistic proposition from their POV, but I’m expecting a late, futile push by the Flames.

    Edit: by impact forwards I mean Svetchnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom.

    If all the impact forwards are gone….Im THRILLED and Im grabing an Outstanding RHD at 7.

    No thought of trading down in this scenario for me….

  42. Gerta Rauss says:

    ArmchairGM: Check capfriendly, the numbers work out based on paying AA whatever you think Strome is worth ($2.75M?), Nurse and the new RD at $4.5M and an $80M cap. Actually, you’d have nearly $5M in cap space, not including bonuses.

    I think we’re arguing the same side of the coin-I’d move Strome as well

    Maybe it all fits under the cap of $80M-my back of the napkin calculations may have been off. I can’t see the Oilers running 6 D with that pay scale however

    Moving Nuge is another non starter for me, especially if we move on from Strome

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Melvis,

    – That’s an awesome perspective: To use your analogy: Chia (or any GM), you don’t win Cups without developing internally.

    – Sure there are Chia “day-trades” that worked, and some that didn’t it.

    – To the extent you agree with them or not, Peter made a lot of “day-trades”.

    – Teams that win Cups, they often point to a trade or two that took them over the top, but you can’t win unless you have a core of players that you drafted developed and controlled internally.

    – As you say, maybe people are realizing that day-trading isn’t the way for Chia to make this team better, hence in the off-season, let the assets grow. Just as you realized that you can’t day-trade your way to sustained wealth, in the absence of a monster fleece trade: we are going to have to win (or lose), largely with the assets we have

    – And yes I am in TO, and yes I know we would hit it off based on your posts in the past: lets do it!

  44. Andy Dufresne says:

    Melvis:
    And what has ,or does LT read?

    Bernard Malamud,The Natural?

    Golf in the Kingdom? Michael Murphy.

    Ray Kinsella. Field of Dreams?

    Bill “Spaceman” Lee?

    MAD comics (especially the Parody Issues), Old (out of ciurculation) issues of The Hockey News, and Biographies of Cuban and Puetorican Baseball players.

    Edit: oh yeah…..and Watchtower and Awake….

  45. Gerta Rauss says:

    ArmchairGM: Does 7th for 28th + AA sound about right to you?

    It’s probably decent value based on historical transactions

    I’m not sure I’d drop from 7 to 28 given that scenario however-I’d want more

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    Gerta Rauss:

    DET has 4 picks in the first 2 rounds

    Actually, they very likely have 3 picks in the third round too – Mrazek needs to win 5 games (4 so far) and Philly in the playoffs (3rd in division right now) to move that 4th rounder to a 3rd rounder. If they go to the conference finals and he wins 6 playoff games, that 3rd becomes a 2nd. Detroit could end up with this:

    2 first round + 3 second round + 2 third round picks.

    There’s your rebuild.

  47. Gerta Rauss says:

    Sunshine in Squamish and the driving range is open-I’m off to hit balls

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: If all the impact forwards are gone….Im THRILLED and Im grabing an Outstanding RHD at 7.

    No thought of trading down in this scenario for me….

    Who? Only Boqvist is off the board in this scenario (as far as RHD).

  49. Melvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Thanks for your response. Maybe we can coax ROM out of his hidey hole as well. I wouldn’t mind Steven Shceps angling in on some Donald Fagen related, oddly augmented major 7th on Queen West either.

  50. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gerta Rauss: It’s probably decent value based on historical transactions

    I’m not sure I’d drop from 7 to 28 given that scenario however-I’d want more

    Also concider the value of ELCs in terms of cap mgt strategy and Seattle expansion.

  51. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: Who? Only Boqvist is off the board in this scenario (as far as RHD).

    Evan Bouchard or Noah Dobson

    But I get your point……for me your thought/question starts to come into play it we are picking maybe 9th or later.

  52. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Sunshine in Squamish and the driving range is open-I’m off to hit balls

    Awesome……you live there or visiting?

  53. Melvis says:

    Back to the hockeying and speaking of ROM. I really liked his take on Drai while I was busy taking in Morrissey.

    Intuitively, I see Ethan Bear playing a very similar style, or role. Smart player. Great peripheral vision. Very good puck mover and passer, potentially. Top four D and PP anchor. Give him a few more games in the bigs in that role over the next few. I think he can cut it.

    And that’s also where Coffey can make his presence felt in a big way. Teach that boy. He’s hungry.

  54. digger50 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Melvis,

    – That’s an awesome perspective: To use your analogy: Chia (or any GM), you don’t win Cups without developing internally.

    – Sure there are Chia “day-trades” that worked, and some that didn’t it.

    – To the extent you agree with them or not, Peter made a lot of “day-trades”.

    – Teams that win Cups, they often point to a trade or two that took them over the top, but you can’t win unless you have a core of players that you drafted developed and controlled internally.

    – As you say, maybe people are realizing that day-trading isn’t the way for Chia to make this team better, hence in the off-season, let the assets grow. Just as you realized that you can’t day-trade your way to sustained wealth, in the absence of a monster fleece trade: we are going to have to win (or lose), largely with the assets we have

    – And yes I am in TO, and yes I know we would hit it off based on your posts in the past: lets do it!

    I think that is the strategy this summer yes. Don’t parade out your best “trade chips” to barter, leave those alone.

    McDavid will win his Goal share
    Drai can win his goal share – needs some help
    Nuge – is the help

    Bolster the rest of the team to break even when top six is not on the ice

    Coaching change in itself will safe speacial teams and bring playoffs by this move alone.

    However – these tinkering moves are not for Peter to be proud of. He inherited wealth which he has squandered and that’s why he’s forced to tinker now.

  55. Andy Dufresne says:

    Another question to the groupd related to this question to the group.

    Do the kind of deals that Armchair GM is talking about generally only occur if such discsuion has occured prior to draft day.

    These are HUGLEY important decisions for franchises. Surely they dont just go down on draft day.

    They must be discussed in advance (with potential trade partners) and somehting they circle back aroudn to on draft day …No?

    Which has me wondering…..how many contigency plans are in place on draft day? How deep does the planning go?

    I mean theres trade up, trade down, trade a player for picks, trade picks for a player, trade one pick for multiple lower picks…trade picks to get rid of bad contract….etc

    I remember one year recently where ( i think it was NYI maybe) offered all thier picks for some other teams high first rounder….

  56. Melvis says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I envy you. My crew showed up this morning to blow out the shoulder high I didn’t want in the basement after a fast thaw. Fuck this house and all of it’s hassles.

    Gimme a small pipe, a couple of grams of sativa, a seven iron….and I’ll nail that pin over the hill and over yonder. I can hardly wait. Golf in my kingdom.

  57. Oilman99 says:

    Woogie63,

    This a long line of maybes that have proven nothing as pro’s,however they do show hope for the future. It is possible that three years from now things look better on the farm. This would the one and only thing Chia has done right,and does not make up for the shit storm he has put this team in.

  58. --hudson-- says:

    Todd’s availability today: Highlights:
    – Aberg with McDavid and Nuge. Possibly see this for 10 more games?
    – Discussion on third line with Strome.
    – Two more questions on Bear. Todd does not like the way Spector phrased the first one.
    – Greggor asking why 5 on 5 goals against is up.
    – Klefbom update, nothing new.

    Greggor asks some really thoughtful questions most days.

    Source video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I37jBUFOj6s
    ————————————————–
    Q: Pontus Aberg got a look there with McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins, I mean obviously he is a relatively new Oiler, there’s still a lot to learn about him. How do you sense him so far?
    A: Well it’s only been three, you know three periods with Connor, I think you’re probably asking the overall question from the time that we have him. I thought that he played with a lot of fire in the first three games, and let the fourth one get away on them, and then this one after having a talk with him, and give him a chance with Connor, I thought he performed fairly well there. The one thing he has is he’s got some good smarts and a shot he was willing to use it on Connors line, he didn’t get productive with it but he did try and use it and I think the it’s much too early to formulate a real strong opinion. We’ve got to let him play more games and see where he’s at after probably ten and have a better indication.

    Q: You’re getting more, I think, comfort in knowing that Ryan Strome is probably a solid third line center option for your team. You’ve kept him Puljujarvi and Slepyshev together. Is that, do you kind of visualize them maybe being a line again next year? Is that why you’re wanting to leave them together right now, to see what they can do?
    A: Well we want to leave them together because we think they’ve been productive right now. We don’t know what our team is going to look like next year, as far as personnel goes, so right now they’ve created some chemistry. Jesse has played well on his off wing, he’s created a number of chances. Anton’s playing with more confidence and the best we’ve had Ryan Strome play all year has been in the last three weeks to a month and what’s common is those three have played together so we’ve got one line going. We’re not about to tinker and tear it apart. You know now, as we move down the stretch, and if it doesn’t go well we will, but each of the three has found a positive impact on most games. So we’re happy with that.

    Q: Commitment, dedication and professionalism – are those the kind of things you start looking for here down the stretch?
    A: No because we looked for those right from the beginning of the season all the way on. It doesn’t change right now. What we’ll look for is a fall-off in those areas and those three elements should show up all the time. It’s hard to be your best every night, regardless of being in first place, or trailing, yet you’ve got to try and bring that everything, and I think the first indication of it sliding is usually practices. I’ve liked our practices lately, the leaders have worked hard there, they’re trying to get better, they’re trying to move the needle in a positive direction, but we’ve got 14 games left, and we expect good performances in all of them. Will we get that? We hope so, but 14 games is a long time, a lot of road games, and we’re not gonna let them off the hook but to expect perfection right now, it doesn’t exist, but to expect effort and professionalism and those other words that you used, yes it should be there.

    Q: You’ve had good success against the Flames in the last two seasons. Any explanation why?
    A: Well the rivalry I think gets both teams up. It’s an exciting time to be playing, especially against your rival. We found some breaks, we’ve got some good goaltending, we found ways to check when we needed to, we’ve had to come back in games. There’s really no pattern to our success against them. Every games been a different, every game has taken on its own personality, so you know, we hope, that continues again tomorrow and we can find a way to push our way to a win.

    Q: Ethan Bear, to everybody outside of the coach’s room, wants to see him on the powerplay, score a bunch of points, and be that offensive defenseman that you need. Inside the coach’s room, what are the things that are going to keep him on this team and keep him getting a chance?
    A: Well, I got to ask the question. “Outside the coach’s room everybody wants it?” What does that mean? He’s been on the powerplay, you know, he’s been on both units, he’s running the first power play, so I would disagree with your question. What I would say is that we agree with your question, he is on the power play, he’s running it, and that’s a real positive. Moving forward we want to see him continue that. A lot of players come in early, with some energy and some excitement, and they perform real well, and then it tends to fall off. He hasn’t shown signs of that. We’re gonna play against our rival in Calgary, we’ll see how he responds in that game, and going forward we want to make sure that he has a positive experience here, but also is learning and improving as he’s doing it, and that would probably come in the defensive area.

    Q: Is he defending well enough 5 on 5 to hold those other spots we are talking about?
    A: He’s getting there, you know, he’s certainly not hurting us a lot, but there are segments of his game that he knows he has to work on and that we’re trying to work on him with, and it’s interesting because we’re asking about a guy who’s played five games. We’ve got guys that have played 800 games that need to do that, and you know so that that goes both ways. We focus on the young player because he’s experiencing things for the first time and he’s a very fast learner. He’s willing to learn, he’s got a high IQ, and he picks things up quickly. So we think that he can continue to improve.

    Q: You’ve mentioned your defensive zone coverage. Your five on five scoring has been virtually the same as it was last year, but your goals against five on five have went up significantly. I know there’s been some injuries at different times to your defense, but as your group, what have you seen, what’s been the biggest factor in you allowing so much more goals this year five on five than you did last year?
    A: I think it’s been a combination of positions. So goaltending, back-end, and forwards on the breakdowns. Last year we got a much higher save ratio in some of those really tough, you know, goal expectation areas, so they were likely standing on their heads a lot more to get those saves, than they are this year. Our net play hasn’t been near as good, so anything that gets in and around the paint, we haven’t done near as good a job cleaning the crease out and eliminating secondary chances, and some of our responsibilities with the forwards have slipped. So, you know, we’ve got to paint the team with the same brush. It’s just not one area, it’s somewhere that we have to improve. I believe we talked at the beginning of the year about taking that number down by 15 goals to have success. We obviously haven’t done it and we haven’t had success.

    Q: You mentioned the paint areas for your defense. When you say clear it, are you talking physically or just the decisions to get to the loose pucks?
    A: No it’s the loose puck is laying there, it doesn’t care who gets to it first, sometimes we’re engaged physically when we can be. We call it sweeping the crease out, and you know Talb’s or Monty has made that first save, and we’re engaged physically when we can be sweeping pucks out. There’s other times where we don’t get to sticks quick enough on loose pucks, or other times where we lose positioning in around the net, and that happens with every team. It just happens a little too much right now with us, where we’re well aware of it, we’re still trying to fix it.

    Q: Todd, do you have an update on Klefbom?
    A: Klef, as I said the other day, he was gonna miss two games. He’s been out for one, he’ll miss the game in Calgary, he skated today after having a small procedure. There was no body contact or anything involved, there’s a good chance that he’ll play Wednesday. The procedure will dictate, further down the road, what will happen, and he and his agent, and everybody else will participate in the decision. There’s nothing written in stone, there’s a real good chance he’ll play the rest of the season, and train in the summer, and come back.

    Q: What’s your view on teams embracing the spoiler role? Some people say it’s something you get excited about it, other people sort of think…
    A: Well when you embrace the spoiler role you’ve spoiled your own season. This is how I see it. You know the motivation behind that is great. You know, keep pushing, and play hard, and ruin it for somebody else. But when you get to that spot, you haven’t done enough to make it a happy place for your own team, and for me that’s the spoiler role we’ve spoiled our own season.

  59. Melvis says:

    –hudson–: Q: Ethan Bear, to everybody outside of the coach’s room, wants to see him on the powerplay, score a bunch of points, and be that offensive defenseman that you need. Inside the coach’s room, what are the things that are going to keep him on this team and keep him getting a chance?
    A: Well, I got to ask the question. “Outside the coach’s room everybody wants it?” What does that mean? He’s been on the powerplay, you know, he’s been on both units, he’s running the first power play, so I would disagree with your question. What I would say is that we agree with your question, he is on the power play, he’s running it, and that’s a real positive. Moving forward we want to see him continue that. A lot of players come in early, with some energy and some excitement, and they perform real well, and then it tends to fall off. He hasn’t shown signs of that. We’re gonna play against our rival in Calgary, we’ll see how he responds in that game, and going forward we want to make sure that he has a positive experience here, but also is learning and improving as he’s doing it, and that would probably come in the defensive area.

    So whaddya know? Three mil a year in concurrence-y.

  60. who says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Question for the group:

    Let’s say draft day comes and the Oilers hold 7th pick. Six picks in and the impact forwards are gone, as are Dahlin (obviously) and Boqvist. Do you (A) hold the pick and who do you draft with it, or (B) trade it to NYI for their 12th pick + Calgary’s 15th pick – and who do you draft with those picks?

    Note: I realize that, based on points %, NYI’s two picks currently sit at 10th and 12th, making (B) an unrealistic proposition from their POV, but I’m expecting a late, futile push by the Flames.

    Edit: by impact forwards I mean Svetchnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom.

    ArmchairGM:
    Question for the group:

    Let’s say draft day comes and the Oilers hold 7th pick. Six picks in and the impact forwards are gone, as are Dahlin (obviously) and Boqvist. Do you (A) hold the pick and who do you draft with it, or (B) trade it to NYI for their 12th pick + Calgary’s 15th pick – and who do you draft with those picks?

    Note: I realize that, based on points %, NYI’s two picks currently sit at 10th and 12th, making (B) an unrealistic proposition from their POV, but I’m expecting a late, futile push by the Flames.

    Edit: by impact forwards I mean Svetchnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom.

    At that point you really have to rely on your scouts.
    If they have one guy head and shoulders over everyone else left I would make the pick.
    If they don’t see much seperation in the next 6 spots I would make the trade.
    The only guy you have left on the board that I have seen is Hughes. I thought he was USAs best dman at world juniors. His skating and puck handling were elite. If he were bigger I wouldn’t hesitate to take him at 7OV.
    Of course if he was bigger he would probably already be off the board.

  61. Oilman99 says:

    Gerta Rauss: It would take balls and at first glance, bringing back the same D won’t fly in the current climate in Edmonton.

    If they fire the coach and staff(and maybe Chiarelli as well) the landscape would change significantly, and a “measured” approach this summer may be possible

    I’d bring all the D back and hope for healthy seasons and improved results-this same D core contributed to the 103 point season just last year after all

    I’d be looking to move Russell and Sekera, but really, the market for either of them this summer is slim to none-play them both in 18/19 and move them both July 2019

    Bad idea, take Nuge out of the equation and there is not one proven NHL winger in the line up. The team should be able to find two to three bonafide wingers for the price it will cost for one impact d-man. It makes more sence to develop a couple of the closet full of d-men the team has drafted.

  62. Andy Dufresne says:

    Todd, do you have an update on Klefbom?
    A: Klef, as I said the other day, he was gonna miss two games…… The procedure will dictate, further down the road, what will happen, and he and his agent, and everybody else will participate in the decision. There’s nothing written in stone, there’s a real good chance he’ll play the rest of the season, and train in the summer, and come back.

    ~Whew! Thats a relief! cause I was sure the Dotards were forcing him to play injured against his will.~

  63. OilClog says:

    When Todd got fired in San Jose the team was -22pts from the season before, 5th overall in shot attempts, 17th overall in goals. Only 5 teams had worse PK’s, he rode Niemi into the ground, somehow had the 6th overall PP, but Jumbo Joe was still a passing menance then.

    The year before they had 111pts, the 6th best pk but only 20th overall on the pp. rode Niemi for mid 60 games, had Burns upfront a fair amount with over 20 goals. At the end of the season they had over 100 more shots then the next best team, yet 5th overall in goals for being beat by Chicago by nearly 20goals on over 100 less shots.

    TMac’s system approach has its benefits but does not equate long term playoff success, changes need to be made and fucking better not be Paul Coffey as head coach.

  64. Andy Dufresne says:

    Material pocession: That’s the point:He didn’t do enough last summer when the holes were glaring (Sekera injury, backup goalie, relying on unproven wingers).Going into next year, the holes are not as obvious because of health, regression, and experience;therefore, he should be doing less.It would be nice to upgrade certain positions but he doesn’t need to force a trade (i.e. lose value) this time around.For example, trading the 1st round draft pick for Mike Hoffman would be an epic blunder.Hoffman for Benson and a draft pick would be a smart upgrade.He needs to make upgrades with the smaller pieces that he has available, if possible.

    Maybe…..but do you not think the holes are more glaring because hindsight? Most people here had no issue with betting on the young wingers….Talbot was a Vezina trophy candidate…..etc.

    So……with your crystal ball…tell me where the holes will reveal themselves in 2018-19.

    Otherswise…IMO… your stand pat approach belies your narrative that HUGE mistakes were made last season….

    I wouldnt do Benson and the 1st for Hoffman…That first rounder (especially if its one of the top 4 available forwards) has a lot of value given a) NHL ready or almost NHL ready b) ELC cap value and c) Seattle expansion protection.

  65. Doug McLachlan says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Question for the group:

    Let’s say draft day comes and the Oilers hold 7th pick. Six picks in and the impact forwards are gone, as are Dahlin (obviously) and Boqvist. Do you (A) hold the pick and who do you draft with it, or (B) trade it to NYI for their 12th pick + Calgary’s 15th pick – and who do you draft with those picks?

    Note: I realize that, based on points %, NYI’s two picks currently sit at 10th and 12th, making (B) an unrealistic proposition from their POV, but I’m expecting a late, futile push by the Flames.

    Edit: by impact forwards I mean Svetchnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk and Wahlstrom.

    There are numerous NHL draft pick value charts out there. One can be found here: http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

    Were I the Oilers and the Islanders to offer up the picks as you suggest, I would jump on the offer right away.

    A 7th overall is generally only marginally more likely to succeed than a mid first round pick. Add a second round pick and you probably have equated the value. Two 1st rounders, even 14th and 15th, is a huge overpay for 7th – IMHO.

    As for who to take, I know LT is very partial to Ty Smith (who may still be there at 12). After the top three (Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina) I suspect people’s list begin to diverge significantly.

  66. Andy Dufresne says:

    OilClog:
    When Todd got fired in San Jose the team was -22pts from the season before, 5th overall in shot attempts, 17th overall in goals. Only 5 teams had worse PK’s, he rode Niemi into the ground, somehow had the 6th overall PP, but Jumbo Joe was still a passing menance then.

    The year before they had 111pts, the 6th best pk but only 20th overall on the pp. rode Niemi for mid 60 games, had Burns upfront a fair amount with over 20 goals. At the end of the season they had over 100 more shots then the next best team, yet 5th overall in goals for being beat by Chicago by nearly 20goals on over 100 less shots.

    TMac’s system approach has its benefits but does not equate long term playoff success, changes need to be made and fucking better not be Paul Coffey as head coach.

    Interesting observation.

    But it may be inherent in the win lose nature of professional sports where 1 team wins and 29 other teams loose…..that if you were to look at the records of all the coaches in the league in the past 10 years…everyone of them has a year on their record like Todds so called down year. Most of them have much worse records…..and its not even close.

    Is he the best…..no.

    One other point….many people want to point out the lack off playoff results….which is a real thing.

    But those same people rave about guys like David Poile as a GM….David Poile who has never won a Stanely Cup in 15 years with Washington and 20 years in Nashville….35 years!!!

    David Poiles claim to fame is winning percentage…..similar to TMac claim to fame is regular season winning percentage.

  67. hunter1909 says:

    OilClog:
    When Todd got fired in San Jose the team was -22pts from the season before, 5th overall in shot attempts, 17th overall in goals. Only 5 teams had worse PK’s, he rode Niemi into the ground, somehow had the 6th overall PP, but Jumbo Joe was still a passing menance then.

    The year before they had 111pts, the 6th best pk but only 20th overall on the pp. rode Niemi for mid 60 games, had Burns upfront a fair amount with over 20 goals. At the end of the season they had over 100 more shots then the next best team, yet 5th overall in goals for being beat by Chicago by nearly 20goals on over 100 less shots.

    TMac’s system approach has its benefits but does not equate long term playoff success, changes need to be made and fucking better not be Paul Coffey as head coach.

    I like TMac, but he appears to be less than the Scotty Bowman/Glen Sather we “Caine Mutiny” level fans desire.

    TMac’s like a drill sgt that’s got himself promoted to the officer corps, but fails to inspire half of his men due to the fact they …they…

    The floor is now open…

  68. hunter1909 says:

    Andy Dufresne: loose

    *lose*

    No need to thank me.

  69. Andy Dufresne says:

    hunter1909,

    Thank Yuo!

  70. Andy Dufresne says:

    The reason I was pretty happy when TMac was hired was because I was always impressed with the way that San Jose team played…..they were tenacious…..I distinctly remember, while watching them pound us mercilessly for several years, that he was getting the most out of that roster.

    An endless list of players would show up seemingly out of nowhere ( Donskoi, Hertl, Melker Karslon etc) who just seemed to fit right into the system almost seemlessly……

    I loved their systems play. It was quite frankly …awesome.

    AND when TMac brought members of his Coaching staff with him I felt like I was on the winning end of deal for once….unlike when Those Bastard Roughriders stole our entire coaching staff…..

  71. Andy Dufresne says:

    –hudson–,

    Thank You. I really appreciate you posting the Availability Highlights.

  72. pts2pndr says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    My two cents as an outside observer.
    Was the poor season due to the players given to the coach or the coaches deployment of the players.JP playing well after his short AHL stint. Slepy Khaira and Strome playing well in their current roles. Pouliot was a bonafide NHL winger and excellent penalty killer but was moved because the coach requested?? It would appear there was a disconnect between coach and GM. They could both be good at what they do but do not seem to work well together!
    Gerta has it right re trades. If we make a move with the D we end up having to keep Russel and Sekera and having to move one of our younger defensemen. Patience would seem to be the best way to go, Last year the GM could have aquired a right shot d instead of Russel and there were other options. This summer the GM’s hands are somewhat tied so in the short term small tweaks only seem to be the more sensible move. Very different circumstances in my opinion.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    Without mentioning names, why the hell do they play rookies during the 1st 9 games of the season?

    If they do this, they risk too much unless the rookie is Connor McDavid.

    Or Taylor Hall (cue tears)

  74. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 recommended movies random 5 selections everyone should at least watch them 5X each:

    The Seventh Seal

    The Shining

    Apocalypse Now!(the original, never the shit{dull actually} redux version)

    Citizen Kane

    Marathon Man

    The 7th Voyage of Sinbad(optional)

  75. Andy Dufresne says:

    pts2pndr:
    Andy Dufresne,

    My two cents as an outside observer.
    Was the poor season due to the players given to the coach or the coaches deployment of the players.JP playing well after his short AHL stint. Slepy Khaira and Strome playing well in their current roles. Pouliot was a bonafide NHL winger and excellent penalty killer but was moved because the coach requested?? It would appear there was a disconnect between coach and GM. They could both be good at what they do but do not seem to work well together!
    Gerta has it right re trades. If we make a move with the D we end up having to keep Russel and Sekera and having to move one of our younger defensemen. Patience would seem to be the best way to go, Last year the GM could have aquired a right shot d instead of Russel and there were other options. This summer the GM’s hands are somewhat tied so in the short term small tweaks only seem to be the more sensible move. Very different circumstances in my opinion.

    “Was the poor season due to the players given to the coach or the coaches deployment of the players.” A: The players in my opinion…TMac had none of these problems in San Jose. (Im lookin at you Talbot)

    “JP playing well after his short AHL stint. Slepy Khaira and Strome playing well in their current roles.”
    A: All as a result of TMac forcing them to earn thier minutes.

    “Pouliot was a bonafide NHL winger and excellent penalty killer but was moved because the coach requested??” A: No evidence that the Coach requested this. Its my belief the Chiarelli is decisive. Once he concludes that a specific player is not part of the solution going forward. He moves that player. Sometimes at what many people consider to be below value. I like it!

    “It would appear there was a disconnect between coach and GM. They could both be good at what they do but do not seem to work well together!” A: Every Coach and GM in the league have disagreements on personel. My observation is that Chia and TMac have an excellent working relationship. (in sharp contrast to the consensus narrative put forward on this site)

    “Gerta has it right re trades. If we make a move with the D we end up having to keep Russel and Sekera and having to move one of our younger defensemen. Patience would seem to be the best way to go,” A: Maybe. But I am mildly bothered by the narrative that says Chia didnt do enough last year and now expect him to stand pat. That is a contradiction to me.

    “Last year the GM could have aquired a right shot d instead of Russel and there were other options. This summer the GM’s hands are somewhat tied so in the short term small tweaks only seem to be the more sensible move. Very different circumstances in my opinion.” A: Context. Last year Russell was already under contract to the OIlers. He was known entitiy. A move based on a Sekera injury would be by its very nature a stop gap. Stop gaps are VERY hard to negotiate.

    So we disagree. I thank you for doing so respectfully. It does two things. It gives me a higher opinion of you and your opinion. And it makes me want to be respectful as well. So thank you.

  76. hunter1909 says:

    I’m a JK fan but still want him to get lots better.

    Good isn’t enough for Paul Coffey.

    Prediction: Paul Coffey emerges as a hockey genius or close to it by Christmas 2018.

  77. Doug McLachlan says:

    Detroit is in an interesting situation.

    They are sputtering to the end of a disappointing, if not surprising, season but with Montreal, Ottawa and Buffalo also in the Atlantic they may not get the lottery pick they probably expected to be in the running for.

    Mike Green comes off the cap, unable to cash him for anything at the deadline, but they did get a nice haul of picks for Tomas Tatar – with the side effect of answering the question of who of Tatar and Nyquist they deal (at least for now as Nyquist enters the last year of his contract).

    Already committed to some $57M in cap for next season with several key RFAs left to sign.

    Athanasiou, Larkin and Mantha are the three biggies (Frk is an interesting one, IMO).

    Any sense of what they get – only Athanasiou has arbitration rights but this is their forward core.

    BTW, Edmonton native David Pope, 6’2″ left winger with the University of Nebraska-Omaha just completed his final season over the weekend. Teammate of Tyler Vesel he had the more impressive statline 35gp 20g 21a 41pts to Vesel’s 36gp 11g 21a 32pts.

    Pope has to sign with Detroit by the August 15th, wonder if he becomes this year’s Spencer Foo?

  78. Andy Dufresne says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909 recommended movies random 5 selections everyone should at least watch them 5X each:

    The Seventh Seal

    The Shining

    Apocalypse Now!(the original, never the shit{dull actually} redux version)

    Citizen Kane

    Marathon Man

    The 7th Voyage of Sinbad(optional)

    DAMN YOU HUNTER!!!

    Because I agree with you on The Shining and Apocolypse Now and Marathon Man and Sinbad. ……NOW I have to go out and find The Seventh Seal…and .the Kane movie….is it Patrick or Evander?

  79. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Another question to the groupd related to this question to the group.

    Do the kind of deals that Armchair GM is talking about generally only occur if such discsuion has occured prior to draft day.

    These are HUGLEY important decisions for franchises. Surely they dont just go down on draft day.

    They must be discussed in advance (with potential trade partners) and somehting they circle back aroudn to on draft day …No?

    Which has me wondering…..how many contigency plans are in place on draft day? How deep does the planning go?

    I mean theres trade up, trade down, trade a player for picks, trade picks for a player, trade one pick for multiple lower picks…trade picks to get rid of bad contract….etc

    I remember one year recently where ( i think it was NYI maybe) offered all thier picks for some other teams high first rounder….

    I remember watching “Jim Benning mixed up” and thinking, “wow, this guy is pretty well just winging it”

    Edit: 🎤 up

  80. Alpine says:

    More and more I’m opening up to the idea of having Nelson back. Not that I think we shouldn’t have went with McLellan 3 years ago, but Todd the Younger is probably the cream of the crop of AHL coaches.

    If we can’t get any of the star names this offseason (Quenneville/Trotz) I probably go right after Nelson. He’s earned another chance and could probably do a great job with an Oilers team that actually has McDavid.

  81. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I don’t get the Anathasiou love. He’s basically a notch above Slepy and Eh-Berg. Maybe not even next season with a coaching change. He could help but with his production and desire for money a second is my max for a player that produces like Maroon and is in his offensive prime now.

  82. Andy Dufresne says:

    Alpine:
    More and more I’m opening up to the idea of having Nelson back. Not that I think we shouldn’t have went with McLellan 3 years ago, but Todd the Younger is probably the cream of the crop of AHL coaches.

    If we can’t get any of the star names this offseason (Quenneville/Trotz) I probably go right after Nelson. He’s earned another chance and could probably do a great job with an Oilers team that actually has McDavid.

    Any chance he agrees to sign on in Bakersfeild? (kind of succession planning / risk management?)

  83. Andy Dufresne says:

    digger50: I remember watching “Jim Benning mixed up” and thinking, “wow, this guy is pretty well just winging it”

    It does make you wonder.

  84. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I don’t get the Anathasiou love. He’s basically a notch above Slepy and Eh-Berg. Maybe not even next season with a coaching change. He could help but with his production and desire for money a second is my max for a player that produces like Maroon and is in his offensive prime now.

    Detroits getting a new coach?

  85. YKOil says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909 recommended movies random 5 selections everyone should at least watch them 5X each:

    The Seventh Seal
    The Shining
    Apocalypse Now!(the original, never the shit{dull actually} redux version)
    Citizen Kane
    Marathon Man
    The 7th Voyage of Sinbad(not optional)

    Fixed.

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I don’t see how they acquire a D without sacrificing a young D.

    Bear might be sealing Benning’s fate right now. He is similar but showing more range already. I could live with Benning going in the right way.

    Somebody has to move to bring in another unless they PB Benning or Russell, but that would be counterproductive to trading them later.

    McLellan’s comments hint at not being happy with vets, the 800 games comment. Who knows what Chia thinks?

    I think it is a safe to assume that with everyone healthy the performance of the D group will be better next season. If everyone performs to established levels it’s not a bad group and deep. Bear I think is a definite call up for next season so the farm has help in him, Lowe and Simpson in a pinch.

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Benning (both have a season more development)
    Sekera Russell (Sekera will be rebound, already is starting and Russell gets sheltered)

    It wouldn’t be the worst D group if the forwards do their job as well. Not ideal but not a season killer IMO. Bear will likely be very close the season after and they can move Russell at least. Somebody off the farm left side might be ready for third pair.

    Then they don’t gut the team further because I have no faith that they make good deals out of Klef or Nuge. The centre depth and if forwards pull their thumbs out should balance team D out.

    Now that coach…

  87. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I don’t see how they acquire a D without sacrificing a young D.

    Bear might be sealing Benning’s fate right now. He is similar but showing more range already. I could live with Benning going in the right way.

    Somebody has to move to bring in another unless they PB Benning or Russell, but that would be counterproductive to trading them later.

    McLellan’s comments hint at not being happy with vets, the 800 games comment. Who knows what Chia thinks?

    I think it is a safe to assume that with everyone healthy the performance of the D group will be better next season. If everyone performs to established levels it’s not a bad group and deep. Bear I think is a definite call up for next season so the farm has help in him, Lowe and Simpson in a pinch.

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Benning (both have a season more development)
    Sekera Russell (Sekera will be rebound, already is starting and Russell gets sheltered)

    ‘It wouldn’t be the worst D group if the forwards do their job as well. Not ideal but not a season killer IMO. Bear will likely be very close the season after and they can move Russell at least. Somebody off the farm left side might be ready for third pair.’

    Then they don’t gutthe team further because I have no faith that they make good deals out of Klef or Nuge. The centre depth and if forwards pull their thumbs out should balance team D out.

    Now that coach…

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Benning (both have a season more development)
    Sekera Russell (Sekera will be rebound, already is starting and Russell gets sheltered)

    “It wouldn’t be the worst D group if the forwards do their job as well. Not ideal but not a season killer IMO. Bear will likely be very close the season after and they can move Russell at least. Somebody off the farm left side might be ready for third pair.”

    So youre saying “You LIKE Chia!”…..”You REALLY LIKE him!” (Sally Fields reference)

    He built this (out of nothing)

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Benning (both have a season more development)
    Sekera Russell (Sekera will be rebound, already is starting and Russell gets sheltered)
    Bear

    Im confused……6 of these are Chia signings…….but you dont trust him to make a seventh move?

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Detroits getting a new coach?

    Maybe? I was thinking Oilers.

    I wonder if we are seeing the same thing as the Pens went through. Crosby’s scoring in the tank, team losing. They bring in Sullivan and get some faster players and two Cups.

    The Oilers fringe players all have talent except Cags maybe and Pak. Are they really so bad as in way worse than other teams have? I don’t think so.

    Teams playing well floats all boats. And the opposite.

    I think McLellan’s way stifles offense. To conservative in systems, stubborn on change and roster, not a motivator. I think this team needs a motivator. I think he’s a quality pro and good coach, wrong team and roster.

    I don’t like Trotz as a replacement, he’s too much the same. Q is perfect. He’s still a disciplined coach so the D play wouldn’t necessarily go to crap, but I think he’s more fiery and player motivating.

    I like PCs thinking on the draft and role players. I like that he has brought in strong shooters with every deal, I had my fill of muffin shooters.

    I’ve also had my fill of his awful higher level trades, I’d like to see him moved out of that role.

  89. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Klef Larsson
    Nurse Benning (both have a season more development)
    Sekera Russell (Sekera will be rebound, already is starting and Russell gets sheltered)

    “It wouldn’t be the worst D group if the forwards do their job as well. Not ideal but not a season killer IMO. Bear will likely be very close the season after and they can move Russell at least. Somebody off the farm left side might be ready for third pair.”

    So youre saying “You LIKE Chia!”…..”You REALLY LIKE him!”(Sally Fields reference)

    He built this(out of nothing)

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Benning (both have a season more development)
    Sekera Russell (Sekera will be rebound, already is starting and Russell gets sheltered)
    Bear

    Im confused……6 of these are Chia signings…….but you dont trust him to make a seventh move?

    No. Do you?

    My comment above says why. He has not been good making deals.

    Sekera is great, Russell wasn’t a terrible idea, but the contracts are hampering them big time now. No escape hatch. Larsson was a wood shed moment, Klef’s deal good. Benning is ok for a college signing but isn’t going to surprise us it seems.

    Nobody is all terrible or all great. PC has strengths, his weaknesses have hurt, a lot.

  90. Alpine says:

    Andy Dufresne: Any chance he agrees to sign on in Bakersfeild? (kind of succession planning / risk management?)

    I doubt it. He already turned down an assistant job under McLellan. If the Oilers want him back they’d do well to show him some respect and offer the HC position, not some half assed contingency.

  91. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think McLellan’s way stifles offense. To conservative in systems, stubborn on change and roster, not a motivator. I think this team needs a motivator. I think he’s a quality pro and good coach, wrong team and roster.

    I respect your opinion but I dont buy it.

    TMac systems never stifled offense in San Jose.

    I think its a combonation of the Oilers players and the circumstances. With the MAJOR circumstance being Talbots collapse.

  92. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: No. Do you?

    My comment above says why. He has not been good making deals.

    Sekera is great, Russell wasn’t a terrible idea, but the contracts are hampering them big time now. No escape hatch. Larsson was a wood shed moment, Klef’s deal good. Benning is ok for a college signing but isn’t going to surprise us it seems.

    Nobody is all terrible or all great. PC has strengths, his weaknesses have hurt, a lot.

    Yes I do like Chia.

    But I fully appreciate respectful disagreement. So thank you for that.

    I am one of the three people who think that Chias strengths outweigh his weaknesses.

    It’s me, him and his mom.

  93. pts2pndr says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Tnx Andy. I have always believed that you can agree to disagree and have a friendly discourse! My opinion stated that I believe there is a disconnect between coach and GM. There is a reminder that San Jose never won the cup as head coach in 2006 the Sharks who were favorites to win the cup had the Oilers down 3 to 1 in games and lost the series. It does reflect that Todd may not adjust to the other teams tactics which can be a fatal flaw! There is much that as fans we just do not know!

  94. Andy Dufresne says:

    Alpine: I doubt it. He already turned down an assistant job under McLellan. If the Oilers want him back they’d do well to show him some respect and offer the HC position, not some half assed contingency.

    just riffing on a theme here…….but if TMac is so bad…..then why would Nelson view the opportunity as some half ass opportunity?

    Good point about Nelson turning down the Assistants offer. I wonder if they agreed to split on firendly terms. I seem to remember it being very congenial.

  95. Andy Dufresne says:

    pts2pndr:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Tnx Andy. I have always believed that you can agree to disagree and have a friendly discourse! My opinion stated that I believe there is a disconnect between coach and GM. There is a reminder that San Jose never won the cup as head coach in 2006 the Sharks who were favorites to win the cup had the Oilers down 3 to 1 in games and lost the series. It does reflect that Todd may not adjust to the other teams tacticswhich can be a fatal flaw! There is much that as fans we just do not know!

    Thank YOU PTS2PNDR. Very cool.

    Can I call you PTSD for short?…………..just kidding!

    You and I are in complete agreement that as fans there is so much that we do not/can not know.

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: I respect your opinion but I dont buy it.

    TMac systems never stifled offense in San Jose.

    I think its a combonation of the Oilers players and the circumstances.With the MAJOR circumstance being Talbots collapse.

    Certainly there are a lot of factors. The Sharks were a second fav of mine for years but despite a good roster and McL apparent focus on playoff hockey they never had enough pop for it.

    This is at the heart of my concern. Teams can be great reg season and be all about the cycle and just don’t enough to get over the top. There are so many examples.

    Maybe his master plan is to get them playing fundamentals well and let her fly, but he doesn’t have the time. The Oilers need a coach who can inspire offense and team defensive at the same time.

  97. Gayfish says:

    Why did OP change his name?

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Yes I do like Chia.

    But I fully appreciate respectful disagreement. So thank you for that.

    I am one of the three people who think that Chias strengths outweigh his weaknesses.

    It’s me, him and his mom.

    I’m glad you enjoy respectful debate but I was hoping you would feel demoralized 🙂

  99. Alpine says:

    I feel something like RNH + Benning for Faulk + equivalent forward (Brock McGinn?) is probably in the works. Followed by one of the big tickets LHD being moved out in a cap dump (Sek/Russell) or flipped for a F (Klefbom).

    Faulk kind of sucks but this is the Oilers and they’re probably gonna dive right in trying to grab what they think they need and this would help them save on the cap. It’s clear the Oilers would like to move Klef and might move RNH and they want that point producer on the back end. Faulk sorta gives them the latter for two more years at 4.8 Mil until Bear is potentially ready to play top 4.

    The Oilers save on cap if Nuge is involved. McGinn is a Maroon replacement, not as big, but younger and cheap. Benning gives CAR another RH option with more potential than Van Riemsdyk. They have Slavin/Hanifin/Fleury down the left and Pesce/Faulk/TVR on the right, with Bean on his way. At C, they have Staal and Rask plus Teuvo and Lindholm, the latter two of which are only part time Cs. Something like this can work for both teams, even if it doesn’t sound ideal right now.

    Klefbom, I have no idea what they will move him for. I would guess a cost controlled winger to play with one of 97/29. I think he’s probably gone because 2 and 4 will too tough to move due to NMCs (Lordy!) and other reasons. One team I can see being interested in is Colorado as they have no veterans on the left side, Barrie might be moved soon, and Johnson is hurt often. They have tons of cap space, and three years left for either shouldn’t interfere too much with future extensions.

    Colorado would probably like to offload Soderberg, who would save the Oilers money and term if they traded Sekera without retaning salary. Potentially the Avs could retain there. We could probably move Russell without taking anything back because he’s not coming off an injury and retaining salary could make him attractive to teams.

    I don’t know how this all gonna shake out but it will probably involve moving guys we shouldn’t move (Nuge or Klefbom) and guys it would make sense to move (Sekera and Russell). They’re might be more subtractions than we think possible at this point.

  100. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Certainly there are a lot of factors. The Sharks were a second fav of mine for years but despite a good roster and McL apparent focus on playoff hockey they never had enough pop for it.

    This is at the heart of my concern. Teams can be great reg season and be all about the cycle and just don’t enough to get over the top. There are so many examples.

    Maybe his master plan is to get them playing fundamentals well and let her fly, but he doesn’t have the time. The Oilers need a coach who can inspire offense and team defensive at the same time.

    That sounds fair to me. Especially given that you followed the Sharks.

    I too have reservations about TMac. But Id like to give him one more year.

    I like what hes done with Sleppy, JJ, Khaira,Strome, Drai, Nuge, Nurse, Russell, and Larrson.

    I dont like what hes done with Talbot, Lucic, Cagguila, (over playing all 3)

    Im somewhat nuetral on the rest.

    But TMac seems like a smart guy to me. Whether he has the skills to drive results on THIS team..only time will tell……but for me hes done enough to deserve a shot in 2018-19.

    I beleive he will actually do some of the things you are asking for. We’ll see if he is capable of adapting.

    I think even he knows hes on a short leash.

  101. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m glad you enjoy respectful debate but I was hoping you would feel demoralized

    LOL! nice…

    uhhh…..I mean…..that Squishy Slushy! *spits* he’s always right! and Im always wrong! how can this be happening!?!?

  102. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gayfish:
    Why did OP change his name?

    You will never see OP and Andy in the same room (blog)…..coincidence…..I think not.

  103. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bear’s rocking like a 30% xGF right now, he’s definitely not eating Benning’s lunch IMO. I take Benning all day this year and next year. Maybe when Bear has a pro body and any kind of defensive awareness to go with his potential impact in the offensive end. Give him another year+ in Bako.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bear’s rocking like a 30% xGF right now, he’s definitely not eating Benning’s lunch IMO. I take Benning all day this year and next year. Maybe when Bear has a pro body and any kind of defensive awareness to go with his potential impact in the offensive end. Give him another year+ in Bako.

    Agreed he’s not ready but definitely a decent call up option it seems. That is a nice development as it was not clear before this.

  105. Andy Dufresne says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Bear’s rocking like a 30% xGF right now, he’s definitely not eating Benning’s lunch IMO. I take Benning all day this year and next year. Maybe when Bear has a pro body and any kind of defensive awareness to go with his potential impact in the offensive end. Give him another year+ in Bako.

    Is Benning of much value to teams in the league?

    The reason I ask is, is it possible using Benning to build a package that brings us a RHD Without giving up our first, RNH or Klef?

    Benning + Benson + something……….ot some such thing……..Benning + Yamamoto?

    Yamo will not be ELC for Seattle Expanison. So would need to be protected as would Benson

  106. Wilde says:

    Almost done combing through this year’s NCAA season.

    Andy Dufresne: I respect your opinion but I dont buy it.

    TMac systems never stifled offense in San Jose.

    I think its a combonation of the Oilers players and the circumstances.With the MAJOR circumstance being Talbots collapse.

    SJS 5v5 GF/60

    07/08 – 2.26

    08/09 – 2.19 <– Enter Todd McLellan

    09/10 – 2.68

    10/11 – 2.42 <– Enter Todd McLellan's nightmares about Sedinery and playoff GA

    11/12 – 2.17 <– Enter Todd McLellan's defensive overcompensation

    12/13 – 2.04

    13/14 – 2.52 <– Uh, ignore this.

    14/15 – 2.14

    15/16 – 2.29 <– Enter SJSs offensive resurgence in spite of aging forwards

    16/17 – 2.27

    17/18 – 2.28

    That's my 'looked at the data for exactly 10 seconds with my mind already made up on the coach' take.

    Only half joking.

    ——————-

    The Senators are up on the Panthers as I write this, and the Canadiens are down 3 goals to the Blue Jackets.

    That leaky MTL squad is gonna land themselves a top 3 pick, I think.

    Feel bad for that kid.

    team – pts % / / odds of most likely draft spot / / odds of a top 3 pick – odds at #1 overall

    ARI– 0.404 / / 4th @ 51.9% / / 48.1% – 18%

    BUF – 0.406 / / 4th @ 33.7% / / 36.2% – 12.5%
    —————————————————
    OTT – 0.425 / / 5th @ 39.1% / / 31.2% – 10.5%

    VAN – 0.428 / / 6th @ 35.5% / / 28.6% – 9.5%
    —————————————————
    MTL – 0.456 / / 6th @ 32.8% / / 25.9% – 8.5%

    DET – 0.463 / / 7th @ 38.2% / / 23.4% – 7.6%
    —————————————————
    EDM – 0.470 / / 8th @ 39.7% / / 20.9% – 6.7%

    NYR – 0.486 / / 9th @ 38.1% / / 18.3% – 5.8%

    Don't think we're going anywhere but up in the standings.

    DET and NYR have easier schedules, slightly, but I don't think that outweighs the quality of team differential between us and them.

    All of the teams with harder shedules are already below us, so.

    I could see Edmonton at that slot NYR is in now at the end of the season, most likely selection to be 9th.

    That makes it very, very interesting to trade the pick, imo.

    Unless Quinn Hughes falls to 9 I wouldn't shed a tear.

  107. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Andy Dufresne: Is Benning of any value to teams in the league?

    The reason I ask is, is it possible using Benning to build a packagethat brings us a RHD Without giving up our first, RNH or Klef?

    Benning + Benson +something……….ot some such thing……..Benning + Yamamoto?

    I’d try to sign him to a friendly deal. He was quality last year, only at 120GP

  108. Andy Dufresne says:

    Alpine:
    I feel something like RNH + Benning for Faulk + equivalent forward (Brock McGinn?) is probably in the works. Followed by one of the big tickets LHD being moved out in a cap dump (Sek/Russell) or flipped for a F (Klefbom).

    Faulk kind of sucks but this is the Oilers and they’re probably gonna dive right in trying to grab what they think they need and this would help them save on the cap. It’s clear the Oilers would like to move Klef and might move RNH and they want that point producer on the back end. Faulk sorta gives them the latter for two more years at 4.8 Mil until Bear is potentially ready to play top 4.

    The Oilers save on cap if Nuge is involved. McGinn is a Maroon replacement, not as big, but younger and cheap. Benning gives CAR another RH option with more potential than Van Riemsdyk. They have Slavin/Hanifin/Fleury down the left and Pesce/Faulk/TVR on the right, with Bean on his way. At C, they have Staal and Rask plus Teuvo and Lindholm, the latter two of which are only part time Cs. Something like this can work for both teams, even if it doesn’t sound ideal right now.

    Klefbom, I have no idea what they will move him for. I would guess a cost controlled winger to play with one of 97/29. I think he’s probably gone because 2 and 4 will too tough to move due to NMCs (Lordy!) and other reasons. One team I can see being interested in is Colorado as they have no veterans on the left side, Barrie might be moved soon, and Johnson is hurt often. They have tons of cap space, and three years left for either shouldn’t interfere too much with future extensions.

    Colorado would probably like to offload Soderberg, who would save the Oilers money and term if they traded Sekera without retaning salary. Potentially the Avs could retain there. We could probably move Russell without taking anything back because he’s not coming off an injury and retaining salary could make him attractive to teams.

    I don’t know how this all gonna shake out but it will probably involve moving guys we shouldn’t move (Nuge or Klefbom) and guys it would make sense to move (Sekera and Russell). They’re might be more subtractions than we think possible at this point.

    Yes! Im optimistic too.

  109. Wilde says:

    Andy Dufresne: Is Benning of any value to teams in the league?

    The reason I ask is, is it possible using Benning to build a packagethat brings us a RHD Without giving up our first, RNH or Klef?

    Benning + Benson +something……….ot some such thing……..Benning + Yamamoto?

    Benning is of value to OUR team. He’s been much, much better lately, but I feel like people made their mind up on this team’s defensemen after the first 25 games. (Nurse is godlike top pairing defenseman, Klef sucks, Benning sucks, etc)

    Nurse has fallen back to earth, Klef and Benning have come back to life, but not much attention has been paid to these occurrences.

    And you take that back about trading Yamamoto.

  110. Andy Dufresne says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I’d try to sign him to a friendly deal. He was quality last year, only at 120GP

    This suggests two things to me

    1) he has value that could be packaged
    2) It might be possible to sign him to a value contract.

    Man I hope Chia adapts to his new circumstances and squeezes all the replacement level RFA’s

  111. RonnieB says:

    Andy Dufresne: Is Benning of much value to teams in the league?

    The reason I ask is, is it possible using Benning to build a packagethat brings us a RHD Without giving up our first, RNH or Klef?

    Benning + Benson +something……….ot some such thing……..Benning + Yamamoto?

    Yamo will not be ELC forSeattle Expanison. So would need to be protected as would Benson

    Yamo and Benson would be in the 2nd year of their ELCs in June 2020. Why would they need to be protected ?

  112. Andy Dufresne says:

    Wilde: Benning is of value to OUR team. He’s been much, much better lately, but I feel like people made their mind up on this team’s defensemen after the first 25 games. (Nurse is godlike top pairing defenseman, Klef sucks, Benning sucks, etc)

    Nurse has fallen back to earth, Klef and Benning have come back to life, but not much attention has been paid to these occurrences.

    And you take that back about trading Yamamoto.

    Valid Points.

    LOL
    Did I say Yamo…..I meant Cammo…….

  113. Andy Dufresne says:

    RonnieB: Yamo and Benson would be in the 2nd year of their ELCs in June 2020. Why would they need to be protected ?

    Right!….my mistake…. they are both slider rules

    Thank you. That makes me happy.

    Raises another question for me. In a lockout year do ELCs burn a year or get a slider type rule?

  114. JimmyV1965 says:

    I don’t think the offseason has to be monster trades to fill our holes. To fill the winger hole simply swap first round picks for a good winger. I’m thinking something like our first round pick to the Rangers for Kreider and maybe the first round pick from Boston. That gives the Rangers two picks in the top 10.

    The RHD hole is obviously more challenging to fill, but we don’t need a huge talent. We just need someone to push Benning to the third pair. Bear could be ready in two years, so we’re basically looking for someone to keep his seat warm. A decent prospect like McKeown could do it.

    For backup goalie look to the free agent market for someone to replace Montoya. Don’t spend a time. Just get someone decent.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    Doug McLachlan: There are numerous NHL draft pick value charts out there.One can be found here: http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

    Were I the Oilers and the Islanders to offer up the picks as you suggest, I would jump on the offer right away.

    A 7th overall is generally only marginally more likely to succeed than a mid first round pick.Add a second round pick and you probably have equated the value.Two 1st rounders, even 14th and 15th, is a huge overpay for 7th – IMHO.

    As for who to take, I know LT is very partial to Ty Smith (who may still be there at 12).After the top three (Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina) I suspect people’s list begin to diverge significantly.

    Thanks, appreciate the link. This divergence you speak of is precisely why the trade-down-for-two-picks concept intrigues me so. Unless you’re stuck on a particular player, mid-round picks make a lot of sense. Bouchard or Dobson may be available at 12, but if not, take Farabee there and then the best of Addison, Woo, Merkley etc at 15. Two years from now there will probably be very little difference between the first group of RD’s and the second anyway.

    Bonus: this one-for-two solves the winger / RD argument by taking one of each.

  116. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: Thanks, appreciate the link. This divergence you speak of is precisely why the trade-down-for-two-picks concept intrigues me so. Unless you’re stuck on a particular player, mid-round picks make a lot of sense. Bouchard or Dobson may be available at 12, but if not, take Farabee there and then the best of Addison, Woo, Merkley etc at 15. Two years from now there will probably be very little difference between the first group of RD’s and the second anyway.

    Bonus: this one-for-two solves the winger / RD argument by taking one of each.

    Your idea has merit……but man thats risky for a GM.

    Its a Hero or Goat kind of scenario.

    There was a saying in the IT industry 20 years ago…..NO CIO ever lost his job contracting out to IBM……(ie. for playing it safe)

  117. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I don’t think the offseason has to be monster trades to fill our holes. To fill the winger hole simply swap first round picks for a good winger. I’m thinking something like our first round pick to the Rangers for Kreider and maybe the first round pick from Boston. That gives the Rangers two picks in the top 10.

    The RHD hole is obviously more challenging to fill, but we don’t need a huge talent. We just need someone to push Benning to the third pair. Bear could be ready in two years, so we’re basically looking for someone to keep his seat warm. A decent prospect like McKeown could do it.

    For backup goalie look to the free agent market for someone to replace Montoya. Don’t spend a time. Just get someone decent.

    Id consider it with the NYI’s. For Calgarys first round pick.
    OR
    with Colorado for their first (they would then still have 2 first round picks Ottawas and Edmontons)

    Id also consider Yaroslav Halak as a backup for 1.5 to 2million

    .908 save percentage on one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. (talking team defense)

    Tampas pick or Bostons pick (via the Rangers) would be too far down the first round for my liking.

  118. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Id consider it with the NYI’s.For Calgarys first round pick.
    OR
    with Colorado for their first (they would then still have 2 first round picks Ottawas and Edmontons)

    Id also consider Yaroslav Halak as a backup for 1.5 to 2million

    .908 save percentage on one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. (talking team defense)

    Tampas pick or Bostons pick (via the Rangers) would be too far down the first round for my liking.

    👍

  119. v4ance says:

    For 2017-2018 every team had a maxmum operating budget of ~$75 million based on the cap. Chiarelli sat on his hands this offseason with his unused ~$8 million of cap room instead of spending to upgrade at a few positions.

    Next year, with a maximum operating budget of ~$82 million. This issue is that with the raises committed to McDavid and Draisaitl and the pending raises to our RFAs (Nurse, Strome, etc.), we won’t have any money to spend on upgrades anywhere.

    So the situations are different in that last year Chiarelli could have spent but didn’t. Next year, he wants to spend to revamp the bottom tier team that he built. He has allocated ~95% of his funds and might well be forced to sit on his hands because he literally can’t afford anyone of value.

    That’s why we’re afraid he will force a trade of Nuge or Klef in an attempt to shuffle deck chairs on the Titanic. He may not have the money to spend but he can trade his existing prime assets out of his current portfolio and we’re all afraid his pattern of losing value will continue in this next projected transaction.

    Having an aggressive manager trying to fill deficiencies is nice but I’d like a little less “suicidal” please.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Books: Baseball books by Roger Angell and Roger Kahn, Bill James, Early John Irving (Setting free the bears, Garp, Hotel New Hampshire), Agatha Christie, books on Riel, Canadian history, Edgar Allan Poe. It’s been years since I read a book that wasn’t about hockey though, kind of immersed myself since the kids were born.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca