Grey Lagoons

The Edmonton Oilers played some good hockey last night, while also showing fans and management just how far there is to go (again) before contention is the new normal. Oscar Klefbom hammered the puck like a young Dion Phaneuf (well, maybe not that much) and some of those complementary wingers found the scoresheet. On the downside, Leon had a poor night and I think the Oilers need a backup goalie.

THE ATHLETIC!

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DANCE AWAY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 4-3-0, goal differential -3 (8 points)
  • March 2017: 5-1-1, goal differential +12 (11 points)
  • March 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -1 (7 points)

The Oilers have been mostly watchable this month, of course McDavid shifts belong in the HHOF upon completion. Two weekend games against the Florida clubs offers its own challenges.

AFTER 70, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 27-36-7, goal differential -44 (61 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 37-24-9, goal differential +27 (83 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 30-35-5, goal differential -33 (65 points)

The Oilers have 12 games left now, there’s not much news left to tell but it’ll be nice to see the full puzzle (this season’s puzzle is from Clementoni and entitled “Poe’s Murders in the Rue Morgue”). A more wretched season I cannot recall.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 3-3-1, 7 points in seven games

Not to toot my own horn but the last few months have come in around my reasonable expectations. I think the club grabs three points from the four-game road trip out east, all three after the weekend in Florida.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Bear were 16-11 in 12:18, 1-1 GF and 9-8 shots (4-4 HDSC). Both men showed well with the puck, Klefbom as the hammer and Bear with some striking outlet passes. Let’s all calm our tits here, but Ethan Bear is looking good as a raw rookie. Went 10-6 against Meier-Tierney-Lebanc.
  • Nurse-Larsson went 13-22 in 17:42, they were the top pairing by time and by opponent. Were 5-11 in shots and 2-6 in HDSC. Went 5-11 against Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi, the most dangerous of San Jose’s lines.
  • Russell-Sekera were 5-11 in 11:34, 3-7 in shots and 1-1 in HDSC. Were 2-7 against Hertl-Coutuer-Boedker line. Man Sekera isn’t playing a bunch. Lordy. Russell blocked a shot with his hand, say NO if someone says ‘do you want to see what Kris Russell’s hand looks like?’ at work today. It’ll be awful, is my guess.
  • Al Montoya stopped 36 of 40, .900.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi looked good in possession and had some looks. Lucic hit a post and had a hitch in his giddyup, Jesse Puljujarvi thinks the nets are 60 feet high and Leon turned over the puck three heartbreaking times. I like the line but that was a tough night. Were 6-7 and 0-2 against the Hertl-Coutuer-Boedker trio.
  • Nuge-McDavid-Aberg were 14-16 in 16:55, 2-0 in GF. Just 4-3 in HDSC, mostly against Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi. I like Nuge and McDavid together, would love to see the giant Finn on the wing.
  • Cammalleri-Strome-Pakarinen didn’t get much done but the line itself is as mixed a bag as one could construct. The trio went 6-10 in 9:31, 1-6 in HDSC. Strome hit a post and was robbed in overtime after Nuge sent a brilliant pass to him in the slot. The wingers didn’t get a lot done, although I do like Pakarinen on the penalty kill.
  • Caggiula-Khaira-Kassian had an eventful evening, it began with a beautiful goal. Kassian’s pass to Caggiula was the key, brilliant bit of business. Line went 8-14 in 11:25, 3-9 in shots and 1-3 in HDSC. The line had six defensive zone faceoffs, compared to just one for the Strome line. McLellan likes this trio, can’t blame him.

NUGE FOR HOFFMAN

Mark Spector has a fine article up today about Pierre Dorion scouting the Oilers. Spec speaks of Nuge as being the target, Mike Hoffman the possible return. I wrote about scoring rates by wingers with McDavid back in December (here) and the truth is everyone performs at a pretty good level. I’m sure Nuge would also score in the range of the names I mention in the piece, and Hoffman might cash even more. I don’t like the idea of giving up Nuge, would hope there’s another deal to be made here. Spec’s assessment does seem to make sense though. Nuge is signed for three more years, Hoffman for two. It’s my belief the Oilers would be giving up too much in a one-for-one, which fits the Peter Chiarelli trade model. I’m a big fan of Hoffman on McDavid’s wing as an idea, would prefer the payment come via the draft pick. I also wonder if the target might be Jesse Puljujarvi.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

I’m down with the flu, ladies and men. You’re going to have to endure an upgrade in the host position on the Lowdown this morning, 10-noon on TSN1260. Dave Jamieson’s delivery and professionalism is exceeded only by his sense of humor and timing. I’d hate him if he wasn’t such a nice guy. He’ll be joined by all manner of guests, please tune in because (and this has always galled me) Jamieson gets all the breaking news and no doubt the sporting Gods will once again reward him. I will return tomorrow unless hit by a bus.

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188 Responses to "Grey Lagoons"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    A healthy Oscar is paramount to our chances of winning. Last evening It was a joy to watch him play. It would be difficult to win a trade with Oscar. I’m in the camp we keep him and we convince one of the 3 NMC contracts to go.

  2. frjohnk says:

    Nuge for Hoffman trade does not make sense at all.

    Nuge provides cover if Drai or McDavid go down for injury

    Nuge is more versatile than Hoffman is.

    Nuge has scored just a couple goals less than Hoffman in far fewer games.

    Hoffman 2years left, Nuge 3.

    Nuge just entering his prime.

    Also if Ottawa is shipping Hoffman out, it’s mostly because of salary. Nuge makes more. This doesn’t make sense.

    Now with all that said on why it would be a poor deal for the Oilers, I would suggest taking a vacation at the end of June, if you don’t want to hear about an Oiler talent bleeding trade at the end of that month.

  3. J-Bo says:

    I hope Spec is wrong. I’m coming around on the idea that maybe the play is for a right wing shooter instead. Imagine having Nuge – McDavid – Shooter. It would also push Jesse and Yamamoto down the depth chart next year. Then bring Maroon back and push Looch to the third line with Strome. Okay, they likely don’t have the cash for all this, but maybe they can get creative!

  4. frjohnk says:

    I don’t see JP getting traded for a higher salary winger.

    We need cheap contracts in the next few years from guys who can play a top 6 winger role. JP is this type of player.

  5. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Nuge for Hoffman is a horrid deal for all reasons mentioned above.

    I have little faith in the incumbent management’s ability to make smart transactions.

    That would be a crippling deal.

  6. frjohnk says:

    On my phone but I don’t think Montayo has been much of an upgrade on LB.

    I still think we need an upgrade in that spot to push Talbot or fill in for Talbot if he were to falter for a stretch next year.

    Former NHL goalie Brent Johnson mentioned on twitter on how fatigue can plague even the elite goaltenders. Better to have a second goalie who you can count to play 20-35 games, than run your starter ragged for the season.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Oh Good a new post. I thought I stumbled onto the Brian Gibbons fan club.

  8. GriffCity says:

    I have a weird feeling Ottawa and Edmonton are going to swing a massive trade.

    Draisaitl & Klefbom for Karlsson & Hoffman

    You heard it here first.

  9. J-Bo says:

    Thomas Vanek, Derek Ryan, and Patrick Maroon would be my UFA targets this summer. I would make no big trades and keep my powder dry until the next summer when I could possibly unload Sekera/Russell and use draft picks to secure an upgrade on defense.

  10. Louis Levasseur says:

    I keep hearing that one of the things we need is an upgrade in our backup goaltending. I guess I have to ask, if that’s the case, why did we give up a draft pick for Montoya, who has 1 year left on his deal? It seems to me that back up goalies aren’t that tough to acquire on cheap one year deals.

  11. flyfish1168 says:

    GriffCity:
    I have a weird feeling Ottawa and Edmonton are going to swing a massive trade.

    Draisaitl & Klefbom for Karlsson & Hoffman

    You heard it here first.

    I sure hope you are wrong. Both players have miles on them. Both players have shorter contracts and Karllson is looking for a massive payday that we can’t afford. Both Leon and Oscar are coming into their prime in the next couple of years. I’m not into short-term thinking and then another era of darkness.

  12. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk:
    Nuge for Hoffman trade does not make sense at all.

    Nuge provides cover if Drai or McDavid go down for injury

    Nuge is more versatile than Hoffman is.

    Nuge has scored just a couple goals less than Hoffman in far fewer games.

    Hoffman 2years left, Nuge 3.

    Nuge just entering his prime.

    Also if Ottawa is shipping Hoffman out, it’s mostly because of salary. Nuge makes more. This doesn’t make sense.

    Now with all that said on why it would be a poor deal for the Oilers, I would suggest taking a vacation at the end of June, if you don’t want to hear about an Oiler talent bleeding trade at the end of that month.

    You make a lot of sense. I vote for you to be our next GM

  13. Connoreah says:

    Maybe a stupid question here (and admittedly I haven’t read the Spector piece yet), but why is everyone assuming it’s Nuge that Dorion was watching when everyone was scratching their heads earlier in the day when they heard that Klefbom would be playing despite surgery scheduled for next week?

    Klefbom is a value contract. Ottawa wants to cut its spending. Klefbom plays for no apparent reason while Dorion is in the stands.

    No?

  14. Dicky94 says:

    GriffCity,

    Terrible trade. So it will probably happen.

  15. texmex says:

    GriffCity,

    If Dreger is correct, the Oilers are not on Karlsson’s list of teams he’d be willing to be traded to.

    “Dreger was asked if the Oilers would have been one of those teams, to which Dreger replied, “Edmonton is not on his list.”

    The context of the question and the answer imply the Oilers aren’t one of the teams to which Karlsson would want to go.”

    https://www.fanragsports.com/senators/dreger-six-team-were-in-on-erik-karlsson/

  16. leadfarmer says:

    How has Karlsson’s skating been this year? Always worry about players having bones resected.

  17. fifthcartel says:

    Louis Levasseur:
    I keep hearing that one of the things we need is an upgrade in our backup goaltending. I guess I have to ask, if that’s the case, why did we give up a draft pick for Montoya, who has 1 year left on his deal?It seems to me that back up goalies aren’t that tough to acquire on cheap one year deals.

    Cha-Cha-Cha-Chia!

  18. Dicky94 says:

    texmex,

    I hope so. I seriously think he is on the decline because of injuries and just a little bit overrated.

  19. Wilde says:

    Looking forward to College FA article.

    I think that’s one of the areas the Oilers have to be aggressive in order to address the Bakersfield drought.

  20. McSorley33 says:

    Nuge is a C

    Hoffman is a winger.

    Are we really thinking of making this trade?

  21. McSorley33 says:

    Regarding Bear – his headman passing is startling.

    However, this shines a light on our current D’s ability to make a pass out of the zone.

  22. Wilde says:

    Also, if Puljujarvi HAS to get Niederreiter’d, can we hold on to him for the 30 goal seasons later?

    Or is does it not count if we don’t trade him for sandpaper?

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    In two of his three years here, Talbot has played very poorly to start the season. If you’re the GM, do you take the chance of that happening again next year? We need someone who can start multiple games if Talbot falters again.

  24. Wilde says:

    McSorley33,

    I mean, it’d be a dumb trade, but not because it’s center for winger.

    For example Nuge for 25 year old Hoffman with the same contract would be money.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    I may be stepping on a ledge here, but even Chia isn’t stupid enuf to trade RNH straight across for Hoffman. Maybe Ottawa throws in first rounder from the Pens. Would much rather be the guy trading two assets for one.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey LT. When’s the last time you missed a day at work?

  27. McSorley33 says:

    What draft lottery team doesn’t trade a draft pick to obtain a 33 year old back up?

    Is the organization going to allow Chia another summer?

  28. Gayfish says:

    Ottawa fans would be rightfully pissed if Dorion could only get Nuge out of Chiarelli.

  29. frjohnk says:

    flyfish1168: You make a lot of sense. I vote for you to be our next GM

    IMHO, I would do a terrible job as GM.

    If hired in 2015, I would have taken some of the assets of McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, the 16th overall, cap space and ground some of them into a fine powder.
    Probably be in about 25th place or so by now. Blown a few assets in trade, lost value in other trades, wasted cap space on complimentary players with NMC’s and folded like a cheap suit in contract negotiations with players. Right now Id probably say that were are “still in a period of evaluation” and that the way the season was circling the toilet Id say it felt like a “death by a thousand paper cuts”
    So yeah, Id make terrible GM.

  30. dustrock says:

    Matheson says doesn’t see Ottawa interested in RNH as a $6m 2C.

    Continues to pump RNH to Arizona for OEL.

    Now someone just find a way to get Drew Stafford in there.

  31. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    McSorley33:
    What draft lottery team doesn’t trade a draft pick to obtain a 33 year old back up?

    I felt like I was one of only about 3 people here who thought that was a really stupid move the moment it happened. Montoya isn’t even a good backup. Now we’re all seeing that for ourselves. Guys like him are available for free in the summer. Why waste assets on a guy, who by all insider reports in Montreal, was about to go on waivers. Did Chia really think that someone would jump the queue ahead of him for Al Montoya?

  32. Doug McLachlan says:

    frjohnk:
    Nuge for Hoffman trade does not make sense at all.

    Nuge provides cover if Drai or McDavid go down for injury

    Nuge is more versatile than Hoffman is.

    Nuge has scored just a couple goals less than Hoffman in far fewer games.

    Hoffman 2years left, Nuge 3.

    Nuge just entering his prime.

    Also if Ottawa is shipping Hoffman out, it’s mostly because of salary. Nuge makes more. This doesn’t make sense.

    Now with all that said on why it would be a poor deal for the Oilers, I would suggest taking a vacation at the end of June, if you don’t want to hear about an Oiler talent bleeding trade at the end of that month.

    +1. Melnyk is shipping $ out.

    I don’t know how you do it but I think the play is Klefbom and his cap-sexy contact and a conditional 1st in 2019 (to compensate for the one Ottawa is losing in the Duchene deal) for Karlsson, the condition being that he re-signs.

    Have no idea what sort of sorcery would be required to make it work, no doubt Nuge would be dealt in another deal, but sending Nuge’s $6M to Ottawa makes little sense to me from their perspective.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    Maybe the deal isn’t RNH for Hoffman. Would Dorian be here scouting the game if that was the deal? Wouldn’t he just do the deal, or maybe send a scout? Maybe he’s looking at a less known quantity. Someone like Bear maybe.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Oilers have signed Kirill Maksimov. That 2017 draft looks good so far.

  35. jtblack says:

    Look at the Corsi for the bottom 6.

    Paints a 12 year long Picture. Is it that hard to find players that can saw off during 10 mins a night? Apparently it is.

    Braun deserves credit. He played McD hard and well.

    Leon (*cringe*) was just plain Lazy / Bad. BUT coach needs to run him 2C the next 12 games and see if he can saw off or better. i think Woodguy showed he is 43% Corsi without RocketBoots on the ice.

    #Praying #Hoping

  36. Fgary says:

    flyfish1168,

    He is making sense…that makes him unqualified to be an oilers GM.

  37. AshetonisGod says:

    First time poster. Want to say “Hat’s off” to Lowetide and the community. Been enjoying this site — and the muscial allusions – for years. Two observations. Watching the Oilers this year is like morning sickness on Friday night. If we trade Nuge for Hoffman, does the latter play a 200 foot game? Can he kill penalties? Can he slide into center if someone goes down? Spec often harps on one point, missing other elements of the picture.

  38. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey LT. When’s the last time you missed a day at work?

    It’s been a long time. Maybe 2007? I have my Dad’s work ethic, can’t shake it. 🙂

  39. flyfish1168 says:

    frjohnk: IMHO, I would do a terrible job as GM.

    If hired in 2015, I would have taken some of the assets of McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, the 16th overall, cap space and ground some of them into a fine powder.
    Probably be in about 25th place or so by now. Blown a few assets in trade, lost value in other trades, wasted cap space on complimentary players with NMC’s and folded like a cheap suit in contract negotiations with players. Right now Id probably say that were are “still in a period of evaluation” and that the way the season was circling the toilet Id say it felt like a “death by a thousand paper cuts”
    So yeah, Id make terrible GM.

    LOL, the bar has been set pretty low with PC. 20/20 hindsight is easy. 2 trades that PC has done I’m sure you or i would not have done. Hall and the Reinhardt trade. Would have also recognized we had a disparity with LHD versus RHD earlier. Eberle, I think we all would have done. I give credit for the Maroon trade. It is difficult being a GM or coach in a Canadain city.

  40. frjohnk says:

    What if it wasn’t just Edmonton that Dorion was to watch but Calgary and SAN Jose as well?

    Any trade of Karlsson and I would think Ottawa would want a RHD back.

    From Calgary maybe it’s Hamilton, Along with a young cheap forward with potential like Bennett.

    From San Jose, I’m not sure, but maybe a young RHD prospect, draft picks.

    I’m sure Dorion will be looking at a bunch of teams to try and get the best value in return of the players they are looking to ship out.

  41. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: It’s been a long time. Maybe 2007? I have my Dad’s work ethic, can’t shake it.

    You are old school Awesome LT!!

  42. Lowetide says:

    AshetonisGod:
    First time poster. Want to say “Hat’s off” to Lowetide and the community. Been enjoying this site — and the muscial allusions – for years. Two observations. Watching the Oilers this year is like morning sickness on Friday night. If we trade Nuge for Hoffman, does the latter play a 200 foot game? Can he kill penalties? Can he slide into center if someone goes down? Spec often harps on one point, missing other elements of the picture.

    Welcome!

  43. jtblack says:

    RNH = Over valued by Oilers Fans
    Is he better than most of our current players? yes
    Is he a good player.? Yes

    Is he an Excellent 2 way forward? Is he?
    Who has the fancies on him?

    Lets evaluate Corsi, GF%, etc etc. and see what the picture paints.

    Relative to his $6 Mil peers how does he stack up?

  44. Gordie Wayne says:

    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him. Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

  45. jake70 says:

    Klef is signed until June 30/23 at 4.167M per. You get him from the age of 24-29. Man it would have to be a special return to trade him out. (just teach him the non-wandering-box protection thing 🙂 )

  46. Ribs says:

    I have wondered lately how committed Chiarelli is to making the team faster. Does Puljujarvi have the wheels needed to stick with the club? Too early to tell?

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: It’s been a long time. Maybe 2007? I have my Dad’s work ethic, can’t shake it.

    Thought it would be something nutty like that.

  48. Ribs says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    Does Karlsson come with an extension?

  49. Pouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): I felt like I was one of only about 3 people

    I was all over it from the git go.

  50. Clarkenstein says:

    frjohnk:
    Nuge for Hoffman trade does not make sense at all.

    Nuge provides cover if Drai or McDavid go down for injury

    Nuge is more versatile than Hoffman is.

    Nuge has scored just a couple goals less than Hoffman in far fewer games.

    Hoffman 2years left, Nuge 3.

    Nuge just entering his prime.

    Also if Ottawa is shipping Hoffman out, it’s mostly because of salary. Nuge makes more. This doesn’t make sense.

    Now with all that said on why it would be a poor deal for the Oilers, I would suggest taking a vacation at the end of June, if you don’t want to hear about an Oiler talent bleeding trade at the end of that month.

    All of your facts is why Chia will trade Nuge.

  51. flyfish1168 says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    I hope there is no truth to what you are saying. PC can learn a lot by reading this website and seeing how stupid he would look again for even contemplating such a ridiculous trade of youth for ageing overvalued assets. Short-term thinking has killed PC with how he negotiates contracts and trades. Now he needs to bandage our AHL and wingers, what next.

  52. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Maybe the deal isn’t RNH for Hoffman.

    CeeCee

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    I would jump at that deal, if we could resign Karlsson and keep him long term!!! Would want the first round Pens pick thrown in too. This would erase a lot of the bad from Chia.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    Well explains why Klef was in lineup?
    Well done Klef.

  55. flyfish1168 says:

    jtblack:
    RNH = Over valued by Oilers Fans
    Is he better than most of our current players? yes
    Is he a good player.? Yes

    Is he an Excellent 2 way forward? Is he?Who has the fancies on him?

    Lets evaluate Corsi, GF%, etc etc.and see what the picture paints.

    Relative to his $6 Mil peers how does he stack up?

    Or undervalued because he plays for the Oilers. His stats would look better if he would have played on a better team that would have sheltered his ELC years and he would have had a chance to develop his Offensive game even more.

  56. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    I’m confused… Didn’t someone just post that karlsson said he would not accept a trade to Edmonton?

  57. Gordie Wayne says:

    I would assume Oilers would be looking to extend Karlsson or the deal doesn’t make any sense… the question is how they can afford that? Would have to somehow erase Lucic off the books and that is extremely hard to do without offering up some kind of sweetener for a team to take him (like another high pick and/or prospect).

  58. GMB3 says:

    Ribs:
    I have wondered lately how committed Chiarelli is to making the team faster. Does Puljujarvi have the wheels needed to stick with the club? Too early to tell?

    Watch him back check last night on the 3 on 1 goal. The kid flies. Probably could use a bit of work on his first step, but he definitely can skate

  59. J-Bo says:

    What about this for a roster next year:

    Nuge (6 m) – McDavid (12.5m) – Vanek(2.5m)
    Maroon (3.5m) – Drai (8.5m) – Pulju (3.5)
    Lucic (6m) – Strome (2.5m) – Ryan (2.5m)
    Caggiula (1m) – Khaira (.675m) – Aberg (.65m)
    Pakarinen (.8m) – Slepyshev (.7m)

    Klefbom (4.2m) – Larsson (4.2m)
    Nurse (4.5 m) – Benning (2m)
    Sekera (5.5m) – Bear (.7m)
    Auvitu (.7m)

    Talbot (4.2m)
    Hutton (2m)

    With Pouliots buyout, this brings us to the cap (with a little breathing room based on bonuses). It includes a trade of Russell and say our 2018 2nd to Calgary for a 2018 4th. It also trades Kassian for a pick and signs a few players to good deals. It throws Bear into the fire, but straddles bringing him and Jones up the same year and gives him a good veteran mentor. The defense is weak, but I’m looking for a bounce back year from a few of them and to me, our forward corps would look pretty decent. This roster is likely not possible and certainly not ideal, but it keeps Nuge and Klefbom, fills out our wings a bit, solidifies the back up goalie position and keeps the powder dry. Thoughts?

  60. Dustylegnd says:

    flyfish1168: LOL, the bar has been set pretty low with PC. 20/20 hindsight is easy.2 trades that PC has done I’m sure you or i would not have done.Hall and the Reinhardt trade. Would have also recognized we had a disparity with LHD versus RHD earlier. Eberle, I think we all would have done. I give credit for the Maroon trade. It is difficult being a GM or coach in a Canadain city.

    Interesting spin being promoted on Oilers Now yesterday, Stauffer chatting with Simpson y day asking closed ended questions like “wouldn’t you agree that the decision to sign Lucic was an organizational philosophy change to address being pushed around in California…everyone was onside”

    Fluffy of course agreed with Stauffer

    Stauffer then pointing to Tampa, Winnipeg and Colorado Re: organizational stability choosing to keep GM’s and coaches in place and big point turn arounds the next season

    My Point?

    Chia and TMc are secure in their jobs…I am sure Chia’s decision making has been neutered ….but these two fellas are not getting fired at seasons end, both will retain their current rolls….Somebody talked Katz off the ledge……..BOOK IT

  61. Professor Q says:

    Pouzar: CeeCee

    That was never a thing.

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    I don’t like the thought of yet another 1OV going out for a guy that was drafted 130th overall coming back, but I do like the player type they’re targeting with Hoffman. This is the kind of player they should be trading for if they can land on a fair swap.

    Just like Gretzky’s superlative seeing eye passes made Jari Kurri’s accurate one-timer the ultimate 1/2 punch, I do believe the Oil absolutely have to find a running mate with Connor that has exceptional wheels.

    We see it so many times where McDavid slashes through the defense individually which results in a 40/60 breakaway chance on net. If the Oil had a fast winger with hands that could anticipate the play and at least keep up with Connor where he’s a stride or two behind at most, then you have the magical 2 on 1s that are forcing the goalie to move laterally and the cash-in rate on these chances rises astronomically.

    In the glory days, we saw this a lot with both Gretz and Kurri and Gretz and Coffey where Wayne got the breakaway and he had a running mate to distract the goalie with the possibility of a pass. It makes life so much easier for the shooter when the goalie can’t cheat for the shot and has to respect the pass across.

    Imo, this is why MacLellan continually returns to Leon because he’s proven himself the only player to date that thinks the game as quickly as Connor and can anticipate the play quickly enough to put himself in position for the give and go’s.

    Fast as lightning. Puck sense. Hands. This is what Connor needs on his wing.

    As much as I advocate drafting down the middle, now might be the time for the Oil to stock up on speed demon Ws. We could use about 5 of them as prospects in the pipeline right about now.

  63. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Erik Karlsson in Oilers silks would have an impact on the team second to that of McDavid and the combo of the two would be unbelievable

    He plays 26:30 per night (down from over 27:00 the last 4 years)

    He has scored at a 0.9 PPG pace over the last five years

    He’s missed a total of 10 games over the last 5 years. I’m sorry I can’t take anyone seriously who says “well injuries” when comparing Oscar to Erik, at worst its a wash.

    This year he has 38 EV points which would place him 3rd in total Oilers scoring

    He’s getting paid $7.5 million in salary this year. He hasn’t been hard done by on his current contract and the Oilers would get him for one sweetheart year before he needs to be re-upped.

    In the course of next year who knows what can be done with Sekera, Russell and Lucic after that.

    Your d setup would look

    Nurse – Larsson
    Sekera – Karlsson
    Russell – Benning
    Auvitu – Bear

    Those top two pairings can eat up almost 50 minutes a game.

    If Erik Karlsson can be had you get him. He’s a complete and utter game changer.

    I like Nuge, I like the depth that his presence allows for the forward group. If you could keep him out of that deal and prefer it. But if Ottawa is actually thinking of moving Erik Karlsson you have to do it.

    Absolute game changer

  64. flyfish1168 says:

    Dustylegnd: Interesting spin being promoted on Oilers Now yesterday, Stauffer chatting with Simpson y day asking closed ended questions like “wouldn’t you agree that the decision to sign Lucic was an organizational philosophy change to address being pushed around in California…everyone was onside”

    Fluffy of course agreed with Stauffer

    Stauffer then pointing to Tampa, Winnipeg and Colorado Re: organizational stability choosing to keep GM’s and coaches in place and big point turn arounds the next season

    My Point?

    Chia and TMc are secure in their jobs…I am sure Chia’s decision making has been neutered ….but these two fellas are not getting fired at seasons end both will retain their current rolls….Somebody talked Katz off the ledge……..BOOK IT

    I agree with Lucic on the team. We needed toughness. I also believe a team need at least 4 tough players that can fight, hit and play a little on the edge. 2 on D and 2 in the forward position. I don’t blame Milan for the deal he signed. It is PC Negotiating skills that hurt. His short-term thinking always outweighs his long-term foresight. That is the problem.

  65. Pouzar says:

    I dunno why we get excited about guys who don’t want to play here.

  66. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Pouzar: I was all over it from the git go.

    hence one of 3 people. you were one of the 3.

  67. Pouzar says:

    Are Safin/Maksimov eligible for the AHL next year?

  68. Pouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): hence one of 3 people. you were one of the 3.

    Just chicken.

  69. AshetonisGod says:

    Karlsson will be 28 next year, 9 yrs in the league, over 620 games, coming off major ankle surgery. Hoffman will be 29, 5 years and two cups of coffee, over 330 games. Trading Nuge, Klef, and the 1st is a helluva risk, especially factoring in the cost it will take to extend Karlsson.

  70. dernf says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    So the Oilers would ship out $10,167,000 in cap hit and bring in $11,187,500 for next year. Karlsson re-signs for at least $10 mil/year (low-end if you ask me, dude is arguably the best d-man in the league), meaning that jumps to at least $15,187,500? I don’t see how the cap pressed Oilers make that work at all.

    Love me some Karlsson, but Lucic and/or Russell needs to be gone for that to work.

    RNH > Hoffman .
    Karlsson >>> Klefbom, but could cost 2.5x the cap hit, and a high first round pick

    Plus as mentioned above Karlsson (reportedly) doesn’t want to come to EDM.

    I’m not sure about all this….

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    If I’m Chiarelli, one of the big questions I have for the players and MacLellan is why have Lucic and Kassian been far less engaged this season as the functional toughness elements (alongside Nurse) of this roster?

    That’s a harsh criticism when Lucic is among the league leaders in hits, but moreso what I’m taking about is the difference btw this season and last in terms of how this team aggressively pushed plays to the blue paint.

    Last year, all the forwards were crashing the net and battling for rebounds. That was led by Maroon, Lucic and Kassian and the rest of the boys got on board. They played mean and acted like the scoring zones were their territory. This season, they take what the opposition gives them on way too many nights.

    It’s the old credo. When you’re not scoring, you simplify your game and risk the bloody noses to get the greasy goals. Where’s the desire to do that with Lucic and Kassian this year?

    If I’m the GM, I need an answer to that question in a big way.

  72. Dustylegnd says:

    flyfish1168: I agree with Lucic on the team. We needed toughness. I also believe a team need at least 4 tough players that can fight, hit and play a little on the edge. 2 on D and 2 in the forward position. I don’t blame Milan for the deal he signed. It is PC Negotiating skills that hurt. His short-term thinking always outweighs his long-term foresight. That is the problem.

    I don’t think anybody is blaming Lucic for signing the contract, I do however question the wisdom of conducting off season training with a retired HOF, NFL receiver, instead of employing a world class hockey trainer like Roberts

    It would seem Lucic now clearly understand that 238 will not allow him to be effective, he needs to change his body composition, drop weight, work on his explosiveness and skill

    the Oilers need to have a very long chat with Milan and help facilitate all the change

    Chia and TMc need to turn shit into shinola and give up the “need to be right”…..designate Lucic as a 3rd line player and get him off the PP…he has never been a PP guy

    If Chia and TMc get to stay and I am convinced they will be here next year, in their current roles….they need to change player deployment and a few other things

  73. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    This is indeed a glaring concern.

    McDavid is McDavid and Drai has mostly been himself, although he has had some weak stretches along with his great ones–he is streaky, that’s for sure.

    But the problem has been in the bottom six and the D and goaltending, along with special teams. This should be easier to address, except for the whole cap issues.

    It seems like when you call it “secondary scoring” people get upset, but yeah, the guys who are supposed to score and bring functional toughness are not bringing much of either. I could live with Lucic’s sluggish point totals if he wasn’t also the team’s worst turnover-to-takeaway ratio machine –and it’s not close, almost all his penalties are minors that have nothing to do with toughness, and he isn’t doing the other things that we have come to expect of him.

    Here’s hoping he is hurt and will come back better next year.

    I mean, I don’t want him to be hurt, but I hope his play is this bad for a good reason.

  74. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    AshetonisGod,

    And eve with Karlsson coming off ankle surgery he is putting up 54 pts, 38 of which are EV while playing 26:30.

    His injury history is a wash when compared with Klefbom’s.

    His scoring alone makes up for both Klefbom and Nuge. Hoffman is simply a sweetener.

    Re-signing will be tough, but not impossible and for next year he’s cost controlled and would breath fire with this team.

  75. bendelson says:

    Dustylegnd: Chia and TMc are secure in their jobs…I am sure Chia’s decision making has been neutered ….but these two fellas are not getting fired at seasons end, both will retain their current rolls….

    Huh… interesting.

  76. godot10 says:

    frjohnk:
    On my phone but I don’t think Montayo has been much of an upgrade on LB.

    I still think we need an upgrade in that spot to push Talbot or fill in for Talbot if he were to falter for a stretch next year.

    Former NHL goalie Brent Johnson mentioned on twitter on how fatigue can plague even the elite goaltenders. Better to have a second goalie who you can count to play 20-35 games, than run your starter ragged for the season.

    If you want the backup to play 20-25 games, you have to change the coach.

  77. Andy Dufresne says:

    GriffCity:
    I have a weird feeling Ottawa and Edmonton are going to swing a massive trade.

    Draisaitl & Klefbom for Karlsson & Hoffman

    You heard it here first.

    Nice. I will remember.

    Im a risk taker. If Chia could make this work under our cap structure Id do this deal and I LOVE Leon.

    $12.6 million out……how much in?

    2018-19 Hoffman $5.2m Karlsson $6.5m = $11.7m

    2019-20 Hoffman ??? Karlsson ??? = ?

    2018-19 Cap Limit $80m doable

    2019-20 Cap Limit ??? ???

  78. Dustylegnd says:

    jtblack:
    Look at the Corsi for the bottom 6.

    Paints a 12 year long Picture.Is it that hard to find players that can saw off during 10 mins a night?Apparently it is.

    Braun deserves credit. He played McD hard and well.

    Leon (*cringe*) was just plain Lazy / Bad.BUT coach needs to run him 2C the next 12 games and see if he can saw off or better.i think Woodguy showed he is 43% Corsi without RocketBoots on the ice.

    #Praying #Hoping

    Would be a lot easier for Leon to drive play if he had real NHL wingers, but alas Chia traded away Hall, Eberle and Maroon…I look at the list of current Oilers wingers and shudder…who are these guys…seriously

  79. Dustylegnd says:

    bendelson,

    Just my take on how Stauffer was shaping the narrative yesterday…referenced Tampa, Winnipeg, and Colorado….deflected blame for the Lucic signing…etc etc…he is an employee of EOG…and to me it seems he has recently been tasked with shaping a new narrative

    Time will tell

  80. godot10 says:

    GriffCity:
    I have a weird feeling Ottawa and Edmonton are going to swing a massive trade.

    Draisaitl & Klefbom for Karlsson & Hoffman

    You heard it here first.

    That would be a horrible deal. Draisaitl and Klefbom are proven quality and cost-controlled and on the rising side of their careers. Karlsson and Hoffman both will need new contracts which will cost more and are on the downside of their careers.

    The core of a championship teams are built on mid to late twenty something hockey players. The Oilers keep trading players who enter the contending sweet spot and create this donut hole age wise in their roster. Ever since Stoll and Greene.

    One cannot win with a team of early 20-somethings and 30 somethings.

  81. godot10 says:

    McSorley33:
    Regarding Bear – his headman passing is startling.

    However, this shines a light on our current D’s ability to make a pass out of the zone.

    Don’t worry. McLellan and Johnson will fix the Bear. They will teach him the joys of the D to D pass, and the beauty of rimming it around the boards.

  82. Gordie Wayne says:

    dernf,

    Ya, I thought of the same things…but…the more I think about it the more I could see this happening:

    1. No Trade clauses – if a player isn’t wanted, and the team has an offer they take to the player, 9 times out of 10 I would bet the player just accepts the trade since the team apparently doesn’t want him. Also, in Karlsson’s case, he might be thinking, it’s only a year left on the deal, so why not…it’s not like he has 5 or 6 years left. And if it works out in Edmonton early on, he would be open to signing an extension.

    2. The salary cap will rise twice by the time Karlsson’s new contract extension would kick in (once in 2018 offseason and once in 2019 offseason, so that will certainly help). Also, if Russell can be traded, that is $4 million in savings and I could see him leaving way before Chia’s pet (Lucic).

    3. Ottawa gets younger and a tiny bit cheaper, but they also get a cost controlled high first round pick that could play on their team very soon. Ottawa could also turn around and trade Nuge at the next deadline for younger players and more picks…who knows…dumping salary doesn’t have to happen all at once for them. (side note: man, they have a sucky owner….)

    This is all very risky on Edmonton’s end, which is why I think Chia would do this. Is it time to be scared or happy…. I lean more to being scared with Chia’s track record.

  83. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers have signed Kirill Maksimov. That 2017 draft looks good so far.

    Excellent!!!

    If this doesnt flush OP out of the bushes nothing will!

  84. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    Look at the Corsi for the bottom 6.

    Paints a 12 year long Picture.Is it that hard to find players that can saw off during 10 mins a night?Apparently it is.

    Braun deserves credit. He played McD hard and well.

    Leon (*cringe*) was just plain Lazy / Bad.BUT coach needs to run him 2C the next 12 games and see if he can saw off or better.i think Woodguy showed he is 43% Corsi without RocketBoots on the ice.

    #Praying #Hoping

    It is hard to play top six hockey with Lucic strapped to your back.

  85. Andy Dufresne says:

    frjohnk:
    What if it wasn’t just Edmonton that Dorion was to watch but Calgary and SAN Jose as well?

    Any trade of Karlsson and I would think Ottawa would want a RHD back.

    From Calgary maybe it’s Hamilton, Along with a young cheap forward with potential like Bennett.

    From San Jose, I’m not sure, but maybe a young RHD prospect, draft picks.

    I’m sure Dorion will be looking at a bunch of teams to try and get the best value in return of the players they are looking to ship out.

    FACT ^

  86. bendelson says:

    Dustylegnd:
    bendelson,

    Just my take on how Stauffer was shaping the narrative yesterday…referenced Tampa, Winnipeg, and Colorado….deflected blame for the Lucic signing…etc etc…he is an employee of EOG…and to me it seems he has recently been tasked with shaping a knew narrative

    Time will tell

    We’ll see what happens at the end of the season… but I don’t think their jobs are even remotely secure.

  87. godot10 says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    Chiarelli should take a cheval-DAYOFF.

  88. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gordie Wayne:
    Heard from a second hand source with connections, so take it for what it is…

    RNH+Klefbom+2018 1st round pick (as long as Oilers don’t win lottery) for Karlsson, Hoffman

    Klefbom is only playing so that he can be showcased and RNH is with McDavid to give Ottawa best look at him.Ottawa sheds a bit of salary but also gets the high 1st round pick from Edmonton which will likely be a very good and cheap young player for years.

    I wouldn’t do the deal if I were the Oilers….but Chia…

    Putting aside what you or I might or might not do…

    Karlsson is THE elite offensive defensman in the NHL today. At age 27.

    The market will set the price and Klefbom + 2018 1st ++ is going to be the ask and its probably not unreasonable.

  89. Andy Dufresne says:

    Clarkenstein: All of your facts is why Chia will trade Nuge.

    I assume this is sarcasm and its cool…..

    But ironically this IS exactly why/when you trade Nuge.

    You trade him when hes having/had a good year.

    Im not syaing trade him…..Im justing pointing out the logic that applies.

  90. Dustylegnd says:

    bendelson: We’ll see what happens at the end of the season… but I don’t think their jobs are even remotely secure.

    We can all dream and hope Chia gets blasted to the sun

  91. flyfish1168 says:

    Dustylegnd: I don’t think anybody is blaming Lucic for signing the contract, I do however question the wisdom of conducting off season trainingwith a retired HOF, NFL receiver, instead of employing a world class hockey trainer like Roberts

    It would seem Lucic now clearly understand that 238 will not allow him to be effective, he needs to change his body composition, drop weight, work on his explosiveness and skill

    the Oilers need to have a very long chat with Milan and help facilitate all the change

    Chia and TMc need to turn shit into shinola and give up the “need to be right”…..designate Lucic as a 3rd line player and get him off the PP…he has never been a PP guy

    If Chia and TMc get to stay and I am convinced they will be here next year, in their current roles….they need to change player deployment and a few other things

    +1

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    If anybody is calling about Nuge, know that we want nothing less than what Sakic got for Duchene.

  93. flyfish1168 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Putting aside what you or I might or might not do…

    Karlsson is THE elite offensive defensman in the NHL today. At age 27.

    The market will set the price and Klefbom + 2018 1st ++ is going to be the ask and its probably not unreasonable.

    Past performance does not dictate future performance.

  94. Ribs says:

    GMB3: Watch him back check last night on the 3 on 1 goal. The kid flies. Probably could use a bit of work on his first step, but he definitely can skate

    Well, straightaway speed is one thing. I’m more worried about the speed he operates at with the puck on his stick and during rushes into the offensive zone.

    All of the Hoffman talk just reminds me of past Oilers whale hunts.. Heatley, Vanek, Nylander…Ah, those were the days…

  95. Andy Dufresne says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Erik Karlsson in Oilers silks would have an impact on the team second to that of McDavid and the combo of the two would be unbelievable

    He plays 26:30 per night (down from over 27:00 the last 4 years)

    He has scored at a 0.9 PPG pace over the last five years

    He’s missed a total of 10 games over the last 5 years. I’m sorry I can’t take anyone seriously who says “well injuries” when comparing Oscar to Erik, at worst its a wash.

    This year he has 38 EV points which would place him 3rd in total Oilers scoring

    He’s getting paid $7.5 million in salary this year. He hasn’t been hard done by on his current contract and the Oilers would get him for one sweetheart year before he needs to be re-upped.

    In the course of next year who knows what can be done with Sekera, Russell and Lucic after that.

    Your d setup would look

    Nurse – Larsson
    Sekera – Karlsson
    Russell – Benning
    Auvitu – Bear

    Those top two pairings can eat up almost 50 minutes a game.

    If Erik Karlsson can be had you get him. He’s a complete and utter game changer.

    I like Nuge, I like the depth that his presence allows for the forward group. If you could keep him out of that deal and prefer it. But if Ottawa is actually thinking of moving Erik Karlsson you have to do it.

    Absolute game changer

    +1 x 1000

  96. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar:
    Are Safin/Maksimov eligible for the AHL next year?

    Safin is…..I think Maksimov is too but Im not sure.

  97. Andy Dufresne says:

    AshetonisGod:
    Karlsson will be 28 nextyear, 9 yrs in the league, over 620 games, coming off major ankle surgery. Hoffman will be 29, 5 years and two cups of coffee, over 330 games. Trading Nuge, Klef, and the 1st is a helluva risk, especially factoring in the cost it will take to extend Karlsson.

    Huge risk!…..Huge reward?

  98. AshetonisGod says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Fair point about Klef’s injury history, but Klef is four year’s younger and much farther from age-related decline. I guess the question is, given his age is Karlsson’s superior performance worth more than keeping the younger Klef and the salary savings that could be invested elsewhere.

  99. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Safin is…..I think Maksimov is too but Im not sure.

    The makings of a nice 4th line in BAK.

  100. AshetonisGod says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    A riverboat gamble!

  101. Andy Dufresne says:

    Erik Karlsson would be this generations equivelant of Chris Pronger coming to the Oilers.

    It was huge and AWESOME. Its how you win cups…….well….at least get to cups.

    Unfortunatley he, like the rest of us, had a penchant for pretty weathergirls so only lasted a year.

    If Chia pulls off a deal that brings Karlsson to Edmonton hes going into the GM hall of fame.

  102. digger50 says:

    AshetonisGod:
    First time poster. Want to say “Hat’s off” to Lowetide and the community. Been enjoying this site — and the muscial allusions – for years. Two observations. Watching the Oilers this year is like morning sickness on Friday night. If we trade Nuge for Hoffman, does the latter play a 200 foot game? Can he kill penalties? Can he slide into center if someone goes down? Spec often harps on one point, missing other elements of the picture.

    Very true

    Spec has been saying “the number one job this summer is to find a shooter for McDavid”

    This is not true in most books, hopefully Peters as well.

    First objective this summer “don’t get worse”. That means no lost trades, do not create more holes, good signings, good contracts. Don’t get worse.

    As for getting better, I think our goals against point the way.

  103. Andy Dufresne says:

    flyfish1168: Past performance does not dictate future performance.

    True…..Life is full of risk. More often than not the Victory goes to the risk takers.

  104. Andy Dufresne says:

    AshetonisGod:
    Andy Dufresne,

    A riverboat gamble!

    Perhaps………But The Oilers 5 Stanley Cups were the result of just such a RiverBoat gamble….the gambler was not Kenny Rogers…….it was Peter Pocklington.

  105. russ99 says:

    I’d make that RNH and Klefbom (and a first) for Karlsson and Hoffman.

    But I’d prefer a pick swap to giving them a top 10 pick outright, may sweeten it with Benson and swap Russell or Sekera (if they’ll waive) for Ryan to make it more palatable for Melnyk.

    Ryan’s contract is odious but we need NHL wingers.

  106. Melvis says:

    bendelson: Huh… interesting.

    both will retain their current rolls….

    Warm, buttery, home made? Or Pillsbury? I’m kind of salivating for a good Italian meatball and peppers on the former.

  107. Gayfish says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Erik Karlsson would be this generations equivelant of Chris Pronger coming to the Oilers.

    It was huge and AWESOME.Its how you win cups…….well….at least get to cups.

    Unfortunatley he, like the rest of us, had a penchant for pretty weathergirls so only lasted a year.

    If Chia pulls off a deal that brings Karlsson to Edmonton hes going into the GM hall of fame.

    I would trade it all for Yanet Garcia.

  108. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    AshetonisGod,

    That’s a good question and I would raise a couple of points in favour of Karlsson.

    1) In Edmonton 2018/2019 he would not be tasked with playing all defensive situations all of the time. You’d have a pairing that has shown this year to be able to handle #1 pairing duties against elite competition. Karlsson would be getting an offensive push here.

    2) He’s a passer/facilitator more than a shooter at the same time that CmD/Drai are trying to become better shooters.

    3) His scoring is ridiculous. I don’t think its out of line to consider the possibility he’d challenge the century mark if he had offensive dynamos up front to pass to. Even without that jump he puts out almost as much offense as Klef/Nuge combined.

    4) While he has played a lot of games and has had a few injuries he has not played in a “heavy” hockey division and he doesn’t play a heavy game per say.

    5) I watch the Sens quite a bit and while it took him a bit to get his feet back under him I think he’s fully recovered from the ankle injury and doesn’t look any worse skating and getting going.

    6) I cannot even imagine what he would be like feeding passes to Drai and/or McDavid.

    7) The Oilers would win 90% of 3v3 OT games McDavid-Drai-Karlsson

    I really like Oscar Klefbom, to start this year I was hoping he would reach #1D potential and I still believe he may have that potential. But Erik Karlsson is in a different league. He has Two Norris Trophies, has scored at a PPG pace in individual years under a team system designed to strangle offense. He’s not a physical beast like Hedman, he’s 6ft tall and does everything with timing and skill. He’s a known quantity and is one of the best (if not the best) defensemen in the NHL and he’ll be turn 28 which isn’t that old and given the comparables in size, skill set and style of play I’d point out that Nic Lidstrom won his last Norris at 41 years old

    If Erik Karlsson is being dangled you pull the trigger he’s that good.

  109. Gayfish says:

    FWIW, Karlsson has been below 50 SCF% for the past 3 seasons. He hasn’t been killing GF% for awhile either.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maksimov is not eligible for the AHL next year due to the 20 year old rule. Krill is very young, he doesn’t even turn 19 until June. He’ll be back in Niagra next year and I can’t imagine he won’t put up huge numbers.

    An interesting note on his numbers is that the high majority are primary points (lots of goals and most assists are primary). The last stat I saw on it was about a month ago, and the primary points were approaching 85% if I remember correctly.

    ———————————————

    Safin, on the other hand, is eligible for the AHL as a 19 year old on a “technicality”. As he was drafted to the NHL by the Oilers prior to be taken in the CHL import draft by St. John, he is eligible for the AHL without being 20 even though he’s currently playing in the CHL.

    Further, his contract would be subject to slide (9/10 game rule applies) – so, if he spends the entire year in the AHL, it will not eat a year of his ELC.

    Normally I would say that the AHL is better than the CHL for any player development but I’m not positive this is the case with Safin given he was a raw rookie in North American this past season.

    I have no idea where the organization plans on playing him next year. S. John was horrible this year, among the worst teams in the entire CHL and, after they traded Valeno at the deadline, Safin was basically on an Island offensively. In fact, they would often dress 10 forwards and ask Safin to play center (he’s a right winger).

    If St. John doesn’t get better in the off-season or trade Safin, I’m hoping he’ll be in the AHL – I think I’d prefer him there in any event.

    The SeaDogs finish their season this weekend and I’m hopeful we’ll see Safin sent to Bakersfield.

    As an aside, Dylan Wells will be done this weekend as well – I assume they send him to Bakersfield but I doubt he’ll actually play any games.

  111. GMB3 says:

    Pouzar: The makings of a nice 4th line in BAK.

    Ha! Im sure they will lose cherry PP minutes to veteran AHL guys too because “earning it” means more than putting players in a position to succeed.

  112. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Maksimov is not eligible for the AHL next year due to the 20 year old rule.Krill is very young, he doesn’t even turn 19 until June. He’ll be back in Niagra next year and I can’t imagine he won’t put up huge numbers.

    An interesting note on his numbers is that the high majority are primary points (lots of goals and most assists are primary). The last stat I saw on it was about a month ago, and the primary points were approaching 85% if I remember correctly.

    ———————————————

    Safin, on the other hand, is eligible for the AHL as a 19 year old on a “technicality”. As he was drafted to the NHL by the Oilers prior to be taken in the CHL import draft by St. John, he is eligible for the AHL without being 20 even though he’s currently playing in the CHL.

    Further, his contract would be subject to slide (9/10 game rule applies) – so, if he spends the entire year in the AHL, it will not eat a year of his ELC.

    Normally I would say that the AHL is better than the CHL for any player development but I’m not positive this is the case with Safin given he was a raw rookie in North American this past season.

    I have no idea where the organization plans on playing him next year. S. John was horrible this year, among the worst teams in the entire CHL and, after they traded Valeno at the deadline, Safin was basically on an Island offensively.In fact, they would often dress 10 forwards and ask Safin to play center (he’s a right winger).

    If St. John doesn’t get better in the off-season or trade Safin, I’m hoping he’ll be in the AHL – I think I’d prefer him there in any event.

    The SeaDogs finish their season this weekend and I’m hopeful we’ll see Safin sent to Bakersfield.

    As an aside, Dylan Wells will be done this weekend as well – I assume they send him to Bakersfield but I doubt he’ll actually play any games.

    Safin is such an interesting player. From following the EDM prospect twitter, the guy scores highlight reel goals game after game. Looks to have a lot of skill and good speed for a big man. Yet from what I’ve read he is has a bit of a disappearing act.

    His point total is solid for a rookie, and the last time I checked he was in on around a third of his teams goals, far more than plenty of players with more points in the Q. Take from that what you will, but in that context his numbers are quite a bit more impressive, IMO

  113. GMB3 says:

    Ribs: Well, straightaway speed is one thing. I’m more worried about the speed he operates at with the puck on his stick and during rushes into the offensive zone.

    All of the Hoffman talk just reminds me of past Oilers whale hunts.. Heatley, Vanek, Nylander…Ah, those were the days…

    I have similar concerns. He doesn’t seem to be very dynamic with the puck, and most high end offensive guys show that ability at a young age. I feel like he can gain the zone with the puck fairly easily but the dman angles him to the outside and he just lets a high wrister go from the side boards. Not a ton of creativity

  114. AshetonisGod says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Ya know, I didn’t think about Conner Drai & Karlsson 3 on 3. I like that! I still don’t like idea of giving up this yr’s 1st round along with Klef and Nuge. Maybe swap a non-Yammer prospect or next yrs 1st instead.

  115. AshetonisGod says:

    GMB3,

    Speaking of PP, Bear looks solid on our 5×4. IIRC, he wasn’t getting 1st unit minutes in BAK.

  116. --hudson-- says:

    Todd’s post-game availability. Highlights:
    – The team played well, took some careless penalties, and were a bit tired towards the end.
    – He liked Montoya’s game.
    – Draisatl had a tough night, but Todd got his back.
    – Chemistry is forming on the new #1 line.
    – Question from Spector on ideal winger for Connor.
    – Question from Greggor on 4th line chemistry
    – Puljujarvi needs to relax a bit.
    – Klefbom had a good night.

    During the Nuge interview, they discuss shoulder injuries, and Nuge reveals that Klefbom does not have a labrum tear as he had a few years ago.

    Source video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONNcZ-MQIqA
    ————————————————–
    Q: Sort of take us through the game and how you saw from your eyes?
    A: Well, against that team, you have to be prepared to start because it’s, we talk a lot about the 10-minute game, and the 50-minute game, and we did a good job in the 10-minute game, which has proven in the past to give us difficulty against them. So we came out of that okay, we’ve turned a few pucks over, which allowed them to get back into it, you know, the penalty that or some of the penalties we took tonight, I thought we were a little bit careless. On the power play, or pardon me our penalty kill was good other than the lost faceoff, and then just a few individuals with some tough nights that created some turnovers. When our backup goaltender gives us a performance like that, we should be able to find a way to close it off. I thought we got a little bit tired at the end, some guys have played a lot of hockey over the last few days, and it showed a little bit.

    Q: What did you like about Montoya?
    A: What have I liked about Matt tonight or in general? Well he is a great teammate first of all, forget about even him playing, when he gets to the rink guys enjoy having him around. He works hard in practice and that’s an important skill set for a goaltender, and then you can tell that he’s been a backup for a while. He’s right when he is his numbers called he’s ready to go, and that’s not an easy team to play against, because you’ve really got a fight to find the puck, there’s so many deflections and tip-in’s from distance or from in tight, and I thought he did a tremendous job tonight in that area.

    Q: Todd, by my eye, there were maybe three pucks that Draisaitl didn’t take care of, that ended up costing you guy’s goals. Is this is a theme that’s been in his game a little bit too much recently due to trying to get…?
    A: Well your eyes is accurate, he’d probably be the first one to tell you that, he had a tough night. And, you know, that line created some chances, but they gave up many more than they created, and they didn’t find a way to score. So definitely a tough night for him and for his line mates, but 82 games that’s going to happen at some point, he’s been able to pull us out of trouble, we couldn’t pull him out of trouble tonight.

    Q: Todd, you’ve had the Nugent Hopkins-McDavid sort of alignment going for a few games here. Your thoughts on how they’re mixing together?
    A: I think they’re starting to… well I guess Nuge first of all, Nuge is starting to get his, you know, his game sense, and legs back. I saw him rolling around and rolling off checks, which is a good sign. He’s starting to really feel comfortable again. Connor’s, Connor. And Pontus is figuring things out. But they’re beginning to be able to read and react off each other well. I think there’s some chemistry developing, they both skate well, and have good lungs so they can get caught out there long, and still defend properly, which is a good sign for us.

    Q: You’ve got, you know, you had Maroon with them last year – a big guy with good hands down low. Nuge with them now, sort of a playmaker almost a lot like Connor. What’s the perfect guy? Does he need a pure sniper? Does he need a playmaker? Who’s the ultimate winger for him?
    A: It’s a, you know, that’s a good question. It depends on the night, it depends on the opponent, and it depends on the type of game. You know, in a fast free-flowing game, you’d like to have the pace with them, and somebody with hands. You always want somebody that can finish because you never know when you’re going to get the puck from him. There’s other nights, I think of some of the playoff series last year against Anaheim, you’d like to have that big heavy deterrent sometimes with him, but yet somebody that can finish, like Patty Maroon was. So it varies, you know, we’re still looking. I still like Leon up on the right side, on any given night, because they connect so well, you know, when they’re both going, but still evolving.

    Q: Todd, that Jujhar Khaira, seems to build some chemistry, with Caggiula and Kassian. They scored again tonight, had the one disallowed last night, what are you seeing from that line? What do you like and what are your expectations moving forward?
    A: Well JJ, he’s evolved into such a tremendous player for us right now, and when you’ve got a center man that can settle things down, the other two go to work, and they’re both quick, they have a tenacity too, and they both finish their checks, which sometimes makes the other teams D a little bit nervous, and they just play a quick tenacious game, and JJ’s there to manage them. So good chemistry there right now and some pretty good results.

    Q: Jesse says he’s pressing and he keeps shooting the puck over the net, and he’s almost going too fast out there sometimes. Is that what you see or…?
    A: Yeah he’s, he has some nights where you almost look, it almost looks like he’s trying too hard. You wish you could go to him and say, “Hey kid relax a little bit, and things will be okay. The puck will go in the net, just relax, and shoot it.” And, you know, he shoots with all his might. He puts everything he has into each and every shift, and we appreciate that, and you know, but at times you just relax a little bit. You’ve done it a million times, you’ve shot that puck, you’ve retrieved pucks. I think he’s squeezing his stick a little bit right now, and him answering the question the way he did, I think it’s evident.

    Q: One last question about Klefbom, shot pretty well for a guy with a bad shoulder tonight?
    A: But, his shoulder is not perfect. What we’re hoping to do is turn his shoulder, into a shoulder… his shoulder’s been quite good, sometimes it dips a little bit. He did shoot the puck real good, maybe it was changing, he’ll change his mind now, and not want to have it done. Who knows, but it was a good night for him.

  117. GMB3 says:

    I feel like a lot of the Chiarelli supporters believe he needs more time and that he is building organizational depth and aiming to build a long term contender.

    Trading this years high first plus RNH and Klefbom for Mike Hoffman and a season of Erik karlsson would be very Alex Anthopolous-esque. We need players who contribute on their ELC, and I imagine the likes of Merkley, Svechnikov, Wahlstrom, Zadina, Boqvist, Bouchard, would do a lot more for the future of this team than Mike Hoffman and Erik karlsson for a season.

  118. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gayfish: I would trade it all for Yanet Garcia.

    +1

  119. Andy Dufresne says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    AshetonisGod,

    That’s a good question and I would raise a couple of points in favour of Karlsson.

    1) In Edmonton 2018/2019 he would not be tasked with playing all defensive situations all of the time. You’d have a pairing that has shown this year to be able to handle #1 pairing duties against elite competition. Karlsson would be getting an offensive push here.

    2) He’s a passer/facilitator more than a shooter at the same time that CmD/Drai are trying to become better shooters.

    3) His scoring is ridiculous. I don’t think its out of line to consider the possibility he’d challenge the century mark if he had offensive dynamos up front to pass to. Even without that jump he puts out almost as much offense as Klef/Nuge combined.

    4) While he has played a lot of games and has had a few injuries he has not played in a “heavy” hockey division and he doesn’t play a heavy game per say.

    5) I watch the Sens quite a bit and while it took him a bit to get his feet back under him I think he’s fully recovered from the ankle injury and doesn’t look any worse skating and getting going.

    6) I cannot even imagine what he would be like feeding passes to Drai and/or McDavid.

    7) The Oilers would win 90% of 3v3 OT games McDavid-Drai-Karlsson

    I really like Oscar Klefbom, to start this year I was hoping he would reach #1D potential and I still believe he may have that potential. But Erik Karlsson is in a different league. He has Two Norris Trophies, has scored at a PPG pace in individual years under a team system designed to strangle offense. He’s not a physical beast like Hedman, he’s 6ft tall and does everything with timing and skill. He’s a known quantity and is one of the best (if not the best) defensemen in the NHL and he’ll be turn 28 which isn’t that old and given the comparables in size, skill set and style of play I’d point out that Nic Lidstrom won his last Norris at 41 years old

    If Erik Karlsson is being dangled you pull the trigger he’s that good.

    +! you riverboat gambler….

  120. GMB3 says:

    Which of these two players would you foresee as a more valuable prospect?

    Two college freshman.

    Player A) turns 19 in July, plays center, 6 foot, 180 lbs. 0.83 points per game, 0.44 goals per game.

    Player B) turns 19 in September, winger, 6’2, 195. 0.78 points per game, 0.23 goals per game.

    They play on the same team, so strength of the conference doesn’t change the context of these numbers.

    If you follow Pronman on the Athletic, you’ve probably already read this.

  121. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:

    Karlsson is THE elite offensive defensman in the NHL today. At age 27.

    Yeah, but for how much longer? I’m not sure it would be wise for Edmonton to sign him to a big, long contract like he’ll be getting soon (due to cap and core age), so why give up assets for one year of a player if we aren’t in serious contention for the Cup already?

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Karlsson is a great player and would love to see him in Oiler colours, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense from my POV. I’d give real assets for Dahlin, though. RNH + Klefbom? No problem!

  122. bendelson says:

    Melvis: both will retain their current rolls….

    Warm, buttery, home made? Or Pillsbury? I’m kind of salivating for a good Italian meatball and peppers on the former.

    Prediction: TMac’s replacement will have coached the same number of NHL games as Poppin’ Fresh.

    ‘Hoo-hoo’!

  123. flyfish1168 says:

    Andy Dufresne: True…..Life is full of risk. More often than not the Victory goes to the risk takers.

    And risk takers get slaughtered more often than experience the sweet smell of victory. Calculated risk is not on our side with that many assets moved out. Reminds me of the Lindos trade. 3 young high skill players is better than 1 close to elite. You know the contract will be a CAP killer and work against team balance. It is a dream that we can win this trade. Plus we should forget about him since he is not wanting to come here anyway.

  124. jtblack says:

    “lots of goals and most assists are primary”

    Aren’t all Goals Primary?

  125. jtblack says:

    GMB3: I have similar concerns. He doesn’t seem to be very dynamic with the puck, and most high end offensive guys show that ability at a young age. I feel like he can gain the zone with the puck fairly easily but the dman angles him to the outside and he just lets a high wrister go from the side boards. Not a ton of creativity

    Compared to ALL of our current D men, Karlsson IS DYNAMIC.

    We havent had a Dynamic d man since Mr.Pronger

  126. Doug McLachlan says:

    Andy Dufresne: Putting aside what you or I might or might not do…

    Karlsson is THE elite offensive defensman in the NHL today. At age 27.

    The market will set the price and Klefbom + 2018 1st ++ is going to be the ask and its probably not unreasonable.

    The price is going to be dictated by the ability to sign.

    If Ottawa allows teams to talk with Karlsson before the draft so that they can guage whether re-signing the prize is possible, then I could see 2018 picks in play but if not then all you have in Karlsson is an expiring UFA (albeit with an amazing player).

    One year of Karlsson is probably worth a lot but knowing you have him locked up makes his value that much greater.

    I can envision a few possible scenarios for Karlsson:

    1- Ottawa trades him for his UFA value before the draft. This puts 2018 picks into play and Ottawa at least can sell hope.

    2- Ottawa packages him with a bad contract (Bobby Ryan) to free up the cash needed for Melnyk’s creditors. Ryan (or Gaborik) lowers the return you get for Karlsson. While Bobby Ryan’s contract is bad enough as it is, he is owed a $2M signing bonus on July 1st so if this is the plan, more reason to expect the deal pre-draft as opposed to post.

    3- If Ottawa wants to get top return on Karlsson then the team that he’s going to will want to either know they can re-sign him or will be providing the real value by way of conditional picks that arrive AFTER this year’s draft.

    In thinking about comparables P.K. Subban’s cap hit is $9M but his salary this year is $11M. Brent Burns is the next highest at a $8M cap hit and a $10M salary. Both contracts are very signing bonus heavy.

    What do we estimate Karlsson’s cap $ to be? $10M? More? Limiting number of landing spots.

  127. flyfish1168 says:

    Gayfish: I would trade it all for Yanet Garcia.

    wow This old guy got very ex

  128. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    flyfish1168,

    Agreed its still a longshot but here’s my defense of it anyway.

    This isn’t like the Lindros trade at all. This isn’t a trade primarily based around prospects and giant unknowns, nor is it Philly selling its cupboard bare to land one whale. This is adding a 3rd whale while sending out valuable, but not untouchable pieces, and getting a pretty decent scorer as a secondary piece.

    The Oilers would still have CmD, Drai, Nurse, Larsson, Yammamoto, JP and Sekera as what I would term “stable bets” after this trade.

    They’d be adding a 70+ point RD in the prime of his career and a 25 goal left winger also in his prime.

    That 1st round pick is an un-known I agree but Nuge and Klefbom are known quantities.

    I’ve stated that I think Klefbom has #1D potential, very few on this blog think the same and until he can stay healthy we won’t know.

    We know that Hoffman can play 1st line minutes and Karlsson is a bonafide #1 RD, (he has two Norris trophies!)

    The Lindros trade this is not.

  129. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3:
    I feel like a lot of the Chiarelli supporters believe he needs more time and that he is building organizational depth and aiming to build a long term contender.

    Trading this years high first plus RNH and Klefbom for Mike Hoffman and a season of Erik karlsson would be very Alex Anthopolous-esque. We need players who contribute on their ELC, and I imagine the likes of Merkley, Svechnikov, Wahlstrom, Zadina, Boqvist, Bouchard, would do a lot more for the future of this team than Mike Hoffman and Erik karlsson for a season.

    Yup, history will not deal kindly with that trade. Two years later you have nothing to show, meanwhile the “assets out” will be productive for Ottawa for years to come. If our Cup window was closing I can understand doing this, but that’s not the case.

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    Karlsson is a huge hole defensively. It sure would be fun to watch him spring McDavid on 15 breakaways per game, but does he bring that 36.49 HDGF% and 40.80 GF% with him too? FWIW, his HDGF/60 is 1.28 and HDGA/60 is 2.22, even with a 55.13 OZF%.

  131. RonnieB says:

    It’s fun to dream about landing a player like Karlsson, but he has been quoted as saying that he and Drew Doughty have spoken and they will both test free agency in 2019 and each will know what the other is signing for. Doughty has more incentive to remain with LA than Karlsson has to stay in Ottawa but Karlsson has said he will only accept full market value. My guess is that will be closer to Mcdavid money than Subban money. The Oilers, with $21 million tied up in 2 players plus over $15 million in NMCs, would be in no position to make a competitive offer.
    Giving up a 2018 pick that will probably be in the top 7 plus trading young proven players like RNH and Klefbom under many years of team control would be insane…even for PC.

    I am not adamant against trading RNH or Klefbom or Puljujaarvi for a good return.
    I would jump at something like Hoffman + Pittsburg 2018 1st for RNH + a lesser pick like our 2018 3rd, or a prospect. I doubt Ottawa would do that though.

  132. Nix says:

    If I were offseason Emperor:

    Literally GIVE Lucic to Az
    Buy out a certain flailing cowboy

    Fire Tunnel Vision Todd and Whispery Wonder Woodcroft.
    Salt the earth in Peters former office. Vow ‘never again’.
    Have security escort Tmac and Lowe to the border. ANY border.

    Quinville/Fenton!

    Drai-McD-Vanek (draft Wahlstrom)
    Khaira-RNH-Yamamoto
    Aberg-Strome-Puljujarvi
    Pajaarvi- ? -Pakarinen

    Remenda out, DeBrusk in

    Hire a young, skilled audio/visual director to take full advantage of the new barns cutting edge multimedia tech. While at it, hire from the same talent pool that makes the Vegas twitter account so funny and refreshing.

    Get Gretz an O’douls.

    Rig myself a lottery win and a lovely Brazillian girlfriend.

    Buy Malibu Mansion.

    Fin.

  133. GMB3 says:

    jtblack: Compared to ALL of our current D men, Karlsson IS DYNAMIC.

    We havent had a Dynamic d man since Mr.Pronger

    Yes but what does that have to do with JP?… lol

  134. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Glad you are back…

  135. leadfarmer says:

    Karlsson add would be amazing. I just don’t see how we can afford the asset cost in acquiring him and then the money cost to sign him. We just have too much dead weight cap to make this happen

  136. McSorley33 says:

    GMB3,

    Which of these two players would you foresee as a more valuable prospect?

    Two college freshman.

    Player A) turns 19 in July, plays center, 6 foot, 180 lbs. 0.83 points per game, 0.44 goals per game.

    Player B) turns 19 in September, winger, 6’2, 195. 0.78 points per game, 0.23 goals per game.

    They play on the same team, so strength of the conference doesn’t change the context of these numbers.

    If you follow Pronman on the Athletic, you’ve probably already read this.
    ******************************************************************************************
    Player A.

    Heard he has a hot girlfriend.

  137. OilClog says:

    A – 447gp – 114g – 187a – 301pts – 11.3Shooting %
    B – 329gp – 106g – 117a – 223pts – 11.1Shooting %

    A – 2887W 3698L – 43.8% 17/18 346W 365L 48.7%
    B – 53W 44L 54.6% 17/18 18W 15L 54.5%

    A – April 12, 1993
    B – November 24, 1989

    If you’re trading player A for player B, player B needs to come with much more then what’s advertised. A straight up one for one would be beyond failure.

    If you’re trading player A the aim needs to be much much higher.

    Luckily Ottawa is rumoured be offloading salary not just swapping names on the attached salaries.

    Klef, Pulj, 1st rounder for Erik and Player B would be completely digestible if Erik resigns.

    Trading Nuge for Hoffman is 2 permanent steps backwards.

  138. OilClog says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Karlsson is a huge hole defensively. It sure would be fun to watch him spring McDavid on 15 breakaways per game, but does he bring that 36.49 HDGF% and 40.80 GF% with him too? FWIW, his HDGF/60 is 1.28 and HDGA/60 is 2.22, even with a 55.13 OZF%.

    New head coach D. Sutter will solve that, with Kris Russell lol

  139. StixMalone says:

    Listen if I’m Karlsson I sure as hell wouldn’t sign in Edmonton, McDavid or not . I’m looking to finish my career in a warm temperate climate eg. Florida or California but not Phoenix lol. Why not? Career will be over in 5-6 years anyway. Bank the money (he will be paid handsomely) and retire comfortably on a nice beach front property.

    HE’S NOT COMING HERE!!!!

    EVER!!!

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    From the previous thread, thought I’d drop it here:

    Andy Dufresne: FFS

    How many goals did the 1989 Penguins score when Mario Lemieux wasnt on the ice?

    We don’t have On/Off for 88/89, but we can look at how many goals Mario had points on.

    I assume you mean 88/89 because in 89/90 PIT didn’t make the playoffs despite Mario getting 123 points in 59 games, having Paul Coffey, John Cullen etc.

    88/89 PIT scored 148 goals with Mario not getting points and 199 with Mario getting a point.

    Mario was in on 53.7% of their goals.

    They lasted until the 2nd round of the playoffs.

    16/17 EDM scored 143 with McDavid not getting a point and 100 with McDavid getting a point.

    McDavid was in on 41.1% of their goals

    They lasted until the 2nd round of the playoffs.

    So neither team was any screaming hell.

    Last two Cup winners was PIT.

    In 15/16 PIT scored 156 goals with Crosby not getting a point and 85 with Crosby getting a point.

    Crosby was in on 35% of their goals.

    They won the Cup

    In 16/17 PIT scored 189 goals with Crosby not getting a point and 89 with Crosby getting a point.

    Crosby was in on 32% of their goals.

    They won the Cup

    If we look at the 1st year Mario won the Cup, it was actually in the year he only played 26 regular season games and got 45 points.

    In 90/91 PIT scored 297 goals with Mario not getting a point and 45 with Mario getting a point.

    Mario was in on 13% of their goals.

    They won the Cup.

    While this is an extreme example, I think it highlights that you need a good team to win the Cup and not just a Super Star.

    So thanks for the question, it was a good one.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    More from the previous thread (sorry, I don’t have nearly as much free time as I used to….)

    Woodguy v2.0: Let’s all wave our hands and discount 6 years of results and just concentrate on the outlier year.

    Andy Dufresne: You talking about about your criticism of Lucic?

    Well no.

    Here is Lucic’s 5v5 Pts/60 over the last 6 years:

    Player Season P/60
    MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 2.08
    MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 2.03
    MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 1.69
    MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 2.09
    MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 1.22
    MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 1.50

    The last 2 years are poor. 2 years are not an outlier, they are a trend.

    Here is Lucic’s Primary Points/60 5v5 over the last 6 years:

    Player Season P1/60
    MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 1.35
    MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 1.56
    MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 1.36
    MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 1.73
    MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 1.00
    MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 0.81

    The last two years are poor. 2 years is not an outlier, they are a trend.

    I know everyone like to point to total points, but we all know that Lucic had an amazing year last year on the power play.

    Lucic’s 4v5 Points/60 last 6 years:

    Player Season P/60
    MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 1.34
    MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 3.90
    MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 3.27
    MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 2.83
    MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 7.05
    MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 2.39

    16/17 is an outlier, not a trend.

    If you want to look at raw 5v4 points:

    Player Season P
    MILAN.LUCIC 2012-2013 2
    MILAN.LUCIC 2013-2014 12
    MILAN.LUCIC 2014-2015 8
    MILAN.LUCIC 2015-2016 8
    MILAN.LUCIC 2016-2017 25
    MILAN.LUCIC 2017-2018 6

    Last year is an outlier, not a trend.

    So when you say:

    You talking about about your criticism of Lucic?

    You are 100% in the wrong for accusing me of this because:

    -Eberle’s goal dip was one year after a long history of good years
    -He’s not a physical player prone to breaking down at ~30, had only played 507 NHL games, goal scorers then to score well into their 30’s.
    -was 27 when they traded him, so he probably has a few good years left.

    Lucic on the other hand:
    -Its a 2 year trend. When projecting a player’s future the Generally Accepted Rules of Weighting Seasons is 50% last season, 30% 2 previous and 20% 3 previous (ymmv)
    -Lucic is a very physical player (is among the league leaders in hits this year….) and turns 30 this summer
    -He’s played 913 NHL games (regular season and playoffs) which is A LOT for a physical player. Most hit leaders don’t play 700, let alone 900.

    Please retract your remark, or at the very least admit you were wrong.

  142. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM: Yup, history will not deal kindly with that trade. Two years later you have nothing to show, meanwhile the “assets out” will be productive for Ottawa for years to come. If our Cup window was closing I can understand doing this, but that’s not the case.

    The cup window is already closing and that kind of trade would only accelerate the process.

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    StixMalone:
    Listen if I’m Karlsson I sure as hell wouldn’t sign in Edmonton, McDavid or not . I’m looking to finish my career in a warm temperate climate eg. Florida or California but not Phoenix lol. Why not? Career will be over in 5-6 years anyway. Bank the money (he will be paid handsomely) and retire comfortably on a nice beach front property.

    HE’S NOT COMING HERE!!!!

    EVER!!!

    I would wager he ends up in Vegas. They have the draft picks and prospects to pull it off and Nevada has no state income tax.

  144. meanashell11 says:

    Harpers Hair: I would wager he ends up in Vegas. They have the draft picks and prospects to pull it off and Nevada has no state income tax.

    This whole no state tax thing is not real as far as I am concerned.They pay tax in every state and province for road games. To make a difference he would need to live there permanently and if he wants the tax break he can live there and only stay in whatever city his team is in for the season. Especially as now many contracts have signing bonuses paid July 1. Tax is due where his perm residence is. No??

  145. who says:

    All this Nuge for Hoffman trade talk is making me very nervous.
    This is my biggest fear with keeping Chia as GM. He is going to be under tremendous pressure to improve the team significantly this summer. If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs next year he knows he’s gone.
    Under this scenario it is easy to see him doubling down on his previous mistakes to try and win now. If he makes a couple more bad decisions it will set this team back for most of Mcdavids new contract.
    Patience is the only move here. One more year of struggle while some of the young prospects mature and the complete NMCs fall off of the Sekera and Russell contracts. One more year also lets Sekera and Klefbom prove they are healthy which should improve their trade value if the club decides to trade them next year.
    Someone needs to take the keys away from Chia before he does something stupid.

  146. Harpers Hair says:

    meanashell11: This whole no state tax thing is not real as far as I am concerned.They pay tax in every state and province for road games. To make a difference he would need to live there permanently and if he wants the tax break he can live there and only stay in whatever city his team is in for the season. Especially as now many contracts have signing bonuses paid July 1. Tax is due where his perm residence is. No??

    And why wouldn’t he live in Nevada? Also many states and provinces do not collect taxes for road games. Both he and Doughty have already said it’s all about the money and no tax states have a distinct advantage with more than a few pundits suggesting the salary cap be adjusted for the difference.

  147. Alpine says:

    I don’t really know if you can simply give Lucic away until a couple more seasons are shaved off his contract. Unless you want to give up a nice sweetener (think Tyler Benson plus), and even still I don’t know if anyone will take him without trading a bad contract our way.

    I think from here on forward for the next couple seasons you keep him away from McDavid and put him with someone he can keep with, and you keep his minutes at about a middle six level so he doesn’t get gassed as much.

  148. JimmyV1965 says:

    flyfish1168,

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Erik Karlsson in Oilers silks would have an impact on the team second to that of McDavid and the combo of the two would be unbelievable

    He plays 26:30 per night (down from over 27:00 the last 4 years)

    He has scored at a 0.9 PPG pace over the last five years

    He’s missed a total of 10 games over the last 5 years. I’m sorry I can’t take anyone seriously who says “well injuries” when comparing Oscar to Erik, at worst its a wash.

    This year he has 38 EV points which would place him 3rd in total Oilers scoring

    He’s getting paid $7.5 million in salary this year. He hasn’t been hard done by on his current contract and the Oilers would get him for one sweetheart year before he needs to be re-upped.

    In the course of next year who knows what can be done with Sekera, Russell and Lucic after that.

    Your d setup would look

    Nurse – Larsson
    Sekera – Karlsson
    Russell – Benning
    Auvitu – Bear

    Those top two pairings can eat up almost 50 minutes a game.

    If Erik Karlsson can be had you get him. He’s a complete and utter game changer.

    I like Nuge, I like the depth that his presence allows for the forward group. If you could keep him out of that deal and prefer it. But if Ottawa is actually thinking of moving Erik Karlsson you have to do it.

    Absolute game changer

    +1000

  149. Gayfish says:

    meanashell11: This whole no state tax thing is not real as far as I am concerned.They pay tax in every state and province for road games. To make a difference he would need to live there permanently and if he wants the tax break he can live there and only stay in whatever city his team is in for the season. Especially as now many contracts have signing bonuses paid July 1. Tax is due where his perm residence is. No??

    I’m not sure how the road game state tax works. Some really bonkers stuff goes on there. Superbowl between Broncos and Panthers had winning QB forced to pay money to the government of California. This was because the winning QB gets a pay bonus for winning the superbowl, and that made them tax elligible in California, but they get taxed based on their yearly income, not the money paid in california.

    What the NHL should do is set up main office in the lowest taxed state, and pay all players directly from a pot paid to the NHL by the owners.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/02/03/california-taxes-will-eat-up-all-of-cam-newtons-super-bowl-earnings/#49560de44452

  150. JimmyV1965 says:

    I love Karlsson, but no way I trade Drai. The age difference and eventual contract difference makes it a no-go for me.

  151. flyfish1168 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    flyfish1168,

    +1000

    You can plus it and spin it all you want. Since you brought up his ev points, then you must know he is a career minus player at even strength. -26 this year alone. Trending down. He doesn’t want to come here, we are not on his favourite list.

  152. JimmyV1965 says:

    I wouldn’t be too worried about Karlsson declining with age. Sure, he’s fast and super talented, but it’s the brain that makes him so exceptional. He might not be the best dman in the league at 35, but he’ll still be damn good.

  153. Harpers Hair says:

    Gayfish: I’m not sure how the road game state tax works. Some really bonkers stuff goes on there. Superbowl between Broncos and Panthers had winning QB forced to pay money to the government of California. This was because the winning QB gets a pay bonus for winning the superbowl, and that made them tax elligible in California, but they get taxed based on their yearly income, not the money paid in california.

    What the NHL should do is set up main office in the lowest taxed state, and pay all players directly from a pot paid to the NHL by the owners.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/02/03/california-taxes-will-eat-up-all-of-cam-newtons-super-bowl-earnings/#49560de44452

    Here’s a link to the state tax rates.
    https://taxfoundation.org/state-individual-income-tax-rates-brackets-2017/

    Note that Florida, Texas and Nevada are among NHL states have none with Washington State soon to follow.

  154. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3:
    I feel like a lot of the Chiarelli supporters believe he needs more time and that he is building organizational depth and aiming to build a long term contender.

    Trading this years high first plus RNH and Klefbom for Mike Hoffman and a season of Erik karlsson would be very Alex Anthopolous-esque. We need players who contribute on their ELC, and I imagine the likes of Merkley, Svechnikov, Wahlstrom, Zadina, Boqvist, Bouchard, would do a lot more for the future of this team than Mike Hoffman and Erik karlsson for a season.

    It would absolutely have to be a sign and trade. No one is giving up real assets for one year.

  155. JimmyV1965 says:

    Doug McLachlan: The price is going to be dictated by the ability to sign.

    If Ottawa allows teams to talk with Karlsson before the draft so that they can guage whether re-signing the prize is possible, then I could see 2018 picks in play but if not then all you have in Karlsson is an expiring UFA (albeit with an amazing player).

    One year of Karlsson is probably worth a lot but knowing you have him locked up makes his value that much greater.

    I can envision a few possible scenarios for Karlsson:

    1- Ottawa trades him for his UFA value before the draft.This puts 2018 picks into play and Ottawa at least can sell hope.

    2- Ottawa packages him with a bad contract (Bobby Ryan) to free up the cash needed for Melnyk’s creditors.Ryan (or Gaborik) lowers the return you get for Karlsson.While Bobby Ryan’s contract is bad enough as it is, he is owed a $2M signing bonus on July 1st so if this is the plan, more reason to expect the deal pre-draft as opposed to post.

    3- If Ottawa wants to get top return on Karlsson then the team that he’s going to will want to either know they can re-sign him or will be providing the real value by way of conditional picks that arrive AFTER this year’s draft.

    In thinking about comparables P.K. Subban’s cap hit is $9M but his salary this year is $11M.Brent Burns is the next highest at a $8M cap hit and a $10M salary.Both contracts are very signing bonus heavy.

    What do we estimate Karlsson’s cap $ to be?$10M?More?Limiting number of landing spots.

    $12 mill. And we can make it work, depending on the cap.

  156. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: It would absolutely have to be a sign and trade. No one is giving up real assets for one year.

    Like a first and a second for one year of Griffen Reinhart?

  157. AshetonisGod says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    More from the previous thread (sorry, I don’t have nearly as much free time as I used to….)

    Woodguy v2.0: Let’s all wave our hands and discount 6 years of results and just concentrate on the outlier year.

    Well no.

    Here is Lucic’s 5v5 Pts/60 over the last 6 years:

    PlayerSeasonP/60
    MILAN.LUCIC2012-20132.08
    MILAN.LUCIC2013-20142.03
    MILAN.LUCIC2014-20151.69
    MILAN.LUCIC2015-20162.09
    MILAN.LUCIC2016-20171.22
    MILAN.LUCIC2017-20181.50

    The last 2 years are poor.2 years are not an outlier, they are a trend.

    Here is Lucic’s Primary Points/60 5v5 over the last 6 years:

    PlayerSeasonP1/60
    MILAN.LUCIC2012-20131.35
    MILAN.LUCIC2013-20141.56
    MILAN.LUCIC2014-20151.36
    MILAN.LUCIC2015-20161.73
    MILAN.LUCIC2016-20171.00
    MILAN.LUCIC2017-20180.81

    The last two years are poor.2 years is not an outlier, they are a trend.

    I know everyone like to point to total points, but we all know that Lucic had an amazing year last year on the power play.

    Lucic’s 4v5 Points/60 last 6 years:

    PlayerSeasonP/60
    MILAN.LUCIC2012-20131.34
    MILAN.LUCIC2013-20143.90
    MILAN.LUCIC2014-20153.27
    MILAN.LUCIC2015-20162.83
    MILAN.LUCIC2016-20177.05
    MILAN.LUCIC2017-20182.39

    16/17 is an outlier, not a trend.

    If you want to look at raw 5v4 points:

    PlayerSeasonP
    MILAN.LUCIC2012-20132
    MILAN.LUCIC2013-201412
    MILAN.LUCIC2014-20158
    MILAN.LUCIC2015-20168
    MILAN.LUCIC2016-201725
    MILAN.LUCIC2017-20186

    Last year is an outlier, not a trend.

    So when you say:

    You talking about about your criticism of Lucic?

    You are 100% in the wrong for accusing me of this because:

    -Eberle’s goal dip was one year after a long history of good years
    -He’s not a physical player prone to breaking down at ~30, had only played 507 NHL games, goal scorers then to score well into their 30’s.
    -was 27 when they traded him, so he probably has a few good years left.

    Lucic on the other hand:
    -Its a 2 year trend.When projecting a player’s future the Generally Accepted Rules of Weighting Seasons is 50% last season, 30% 2 previous and 20% 3 previous (ymmv)
    -Lucic is a very physical player (is among the league leaders in hits this year….) and turns 30 this summer
    -He’s played 913 NHL games (regular season and playoffs) which is A LOT for a physical player.Most hit leaders don’t play 700, let alone 900.

    Please retract your remark, or at the very least admit you were wrong.

    Thanks for this. Let’s assume Lucic’s results this year are what he is and that there’s no undisclosed injury or ailment that might explain his post Xmas collapse. The data support the eye test. He’s a marginal NHLer at this point. TMac sees him every day in practice and on the ice gamedays. He’s been evaluating NHLers for years. Surely he must know Lucic aint what he used to be and yet he never sits him. Instead, he gives him good minutes every night. Why the interest in protecting Lucic when it is costing the team almost every single game? Imagine reducing Lucic’s TOI by 4 minutes per game and redistributing it to other wingers/ centers (excluding Cags). The team would be better off and younger players wpuld get more development time. Why the favouritism? Why this sentimentalism?

  158. JimmyV1965 says:

    StixMalone:
    Listen if I’m Karlsson I sure as hell wouldn’t sign in Edmonton, McDavid or not . I’m looking to finish my career in a warm temperate climate eg. Florida or California but not Phoenix lol. Why not? Career will be over in 5-6 years anyway. Bank the money (he will be paid handsomely) and retire comfortably on a nice beach front property.

    HE’S NOT COMING HERE!!!!

    EVER!!!

    You’re absolute conviction about this is kind of weird. While it’s unlikely he comes here, what happens if Connor phones him up one day and lays out the future for him?

  159. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: And why wouldn’t he live in Nevada? Also many states and provinces do not collect taxes for road games. Both he and Doughty have already said it’s all about the money and no tax states have a distinct advantage with more than a few pundits suggesting the salary cap be adjusted for the difference.

    What about endorsement deals? You’re getting way more of those in any Canadian city.

  160. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: What about endorsement deals? You’re getting way more of those in any Canadian city.

    Other than Toronto or Montreal I doubt that is true. Canadian media markets are peanuts. Players like Crosby transcend that nationally but when is the last time you saw an Erik Karlsson Tim Horton’s commercial?

  161. JJ says:

    On a 23 man roster, Nuge is the 21st guy I would trade.

    Oilers’ management can’t be that stupid could they?

  162. Harpers Hair says:

    JJ:
    On a 23 man roster, Nuge is the 21stguy I would trade.

    Oilers’ management can’t be that stupid could they?

    See Hall, Taylor for reference..

  163. HT Joe says:

    JJ:
    On a 23 man roster, Nuge is the 21stguy I would trade.

    Oilers’ management can’t be that stupid could they?

    So, I assume that even though he has lost more than his share of trades, Chia is an intelligent guy. So why would an intelligent guy trade away Eberle for Strome one-for-one?
    – He must have understood that this was a downgrade in skill.
    – He must have understood that last year was a down-year for Eberle.
    – He must have understood that Strome’s ceiling looked like a 3rd line player… 2nd line tops.
    – He must have heard the verbal where Strome confirmed a preference to play centre, so Strome could not be expected to effectively replace Eberle.

    I believe Chia has confirmed (or at least led us to believe) that he signed Draisatl as a centre. He also has confirmed (or led us to believe) that he feels they are paying a lot (too much?) for McDavid, RNH, and Draisatl down the middle.

    Chia must also understand that defensive ability is sometimes overlooked in a trade, and offensive numbers typically trump all.

    We know that TMac reports to Chia, and Chia supports him (publicly at least).

    We also know that the change in RNH’s useage didn’t necessarily benefit the team the most (with him now having a more offensive role), but certainly improved his cachet outside of Edmonton. (please correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought RNH faced less severe defensive situations this year)

    What if last year, Chia simply decided that he needed to drop cost, and replacing BOTH RNH and Eberle with cheaper players was the path forward.
    – Chia knew that last year neither RNH nor Eberle could be traded for peak value (neither had overwhelming offensive numbers).
    – Chia knew that wingers bring in less than centres, so he traded the Eberle at basement-value, but as part of a 2-step process in the hopes of later trading RNH for peak value. Presumable the overall trade return for (basement-Eberle + peak-RNH) would exceed that of (peak-Eberle + basement-RNH).
    – Also, centre depth is really key to win games, so before trading RNH, Chia needed to be sure that he had a sure-thing replacement. This also necessitated trading Eberle last year (instead of trying to wait a year before trading away both RNH and Eberle at potential-peak value)
    – Chia let Todd test-drive Strome for the year, to see if Strome could effectively play as a low-cost 3C (replacing RNH).
    – This whole year, Chia / TMac tried to pump RNH’s offensive production as much as possible AS A CENTRE, to improve RNH’s cachet around the league (i.e., this is why RNH until recently didn’t get McDavid time).
    – Strome was always slotted in to replace RNH, which is why he never got much time on McDavid’s wing… the goal was to keep Strome as a cheap replacement for RNH when it came to contract renegotiations summer 2018.

    Maybe Chia’s 2-part plan all along was (1) find and test drive cheaper RNH replacement, (2) trade peak-value RNH for a cheaper goal-scoring winger (+picks +prospects). Finally, with the emergence of Nurse, I suspect Chia will try to trade both RNH + Klefbom in the hopes of both getting a cheaper scoring winger to replace Eberle, while also fixing the LD/RD mismatch.

    When Chia didn’t load up for a cup run in 2017, did he perhaps already expect 2017-2018 to be a turd, and that his seemingly poor Eberle for Strome trade was only the first part of a two-year cap adjustment series of moves?

    *EDIT* As a fan, I hate the idea of GMs intentionally neglecting entire seasons, but as a senior manager for a multi-hundred-million-dollar corporation, it must be part of Chia’s skillset to have very long-range plans in place, no?

    *EDIT* While Eberle’s playoffs were standout poor, RNH had no goals, 4 assists, and -3 +/-. Maybe Chia watched those 13 playoff games and figured then and there that he had to pay less than $12M total for two weak playoff performers (not my description per say… I’m just trying to think like Chia might have)

  164. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I love Karlsson, but no way I trade Drai.The age difference and eventual contract difference makes it a no-go for me.

    Although it does harken back to the Drai, Klefbom, Puljujärvi + for Subban deal.

  165. flea says:

    HT Joe,

    Great post. I think you are close on their lines of thinking. I also get the feeling that they want to go whale hunting this summer. They want OEL or Karlsson and will go for it next season. The season after that both sekera and Russell are tradable and you could potentially sign one of those guys to a 8M contract.

    They are still cleaning up the mess the prior regime left.

  166. frjohnk says:

    flea: They are still cleaning up the mess the prior regime left.

    The next regime may have an even bigger mess to clean up.

  167. GMB3 says:

    flea:
    HT Joe,

    Great post. I think you are close on their lines of thinking. I also get the feeling that they want to go whale hunting this summer. They want OEL or Karlsson and will go for it next season. The season after that both sekera and Russell are tradable and you could potentially sign one of those guys to a 8M contract.

    They are still cleaning up the mess the prior regime left.

    I don’t think signing Lucic to a 6 million dollar deal helped clean up any messes. If they are going whale hunting I don’t think you resign Russell at 4 mill. If you know this year is going to be a turd, why do that? Why the NMC?

    Neither Karlsson or Doughty sign below 9, imo.

    A lot of what ifs

  168. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair: Other than Toronto or Montreal I doubt that is true. Canadian media markets are peanuts. Players like Crosby transcend that nationally but when is the last time you saw an Erik Karlsson Tim Horton’s commercial?

    Unfortunately, Karlsson isn’t Canadian and that really does matter in Canadian society and media representation (is also in Ottawa).

    It shouldn’t matter, and Ottawa should press harder for coverage and celebrate him. Same with other Canadian sponsors.

    Right now, the only real “Big Names” for Canadian sponsors, that really press their names and faces out, are Toews, Stamkos, and Crosby. Ovechkin is second to Crosby, and at one time surpassed him, but mostly relegated to Gatorade and such now.

    When he was doing multiple commercials and had the Mr. Big Deal stuff going on, his face was everywhere. But unlike those other three I don’t think I’ve ever seen him involved with Jump Start, Timbits Hockey, or similar.

    McDavid is close by but even he isn’t on their level. Yet. He’s already had the commercials starting and more products, so very soon he’ll likely have more involvement.

    Even Matthews isn’t on that level, being in Toronto.

    There aren’t that many spaces for multiple players.

  169. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    HT Joe,

    – HT this is an elaborate thought chain. I appreciate it because you start with the premise that Chia isn’t an idiot and he has access to better information than we do.

    – of course we can never know the full logic behind moves but your attempt to decipher the moves is far more nuanced and in line with reality.

    – simply trotting our some 5×5 stats to show how much better ebs is than strome one a c the other a w then saying therefore it’s clear chia is an idiot it doesn’t work that way

    – ps I’m with the other guy. Karlson isn’t coming here. Just like Lucic isn’t getting traded. I don’t get why we contemplate such fantasyland

  170. maudite says:

    I’m only spending crazy young/future assets if I’m getting the next Seth Jones type guy or for something like PK Subban when MTL stupidly dealt him…not what remains of the present Eric Karlsson.

    You are likely looking at a max year contract for high dough on Karlsson. So what that’s like 12 mil for 7 years?

    28-35…

    Passover.

    FIx bottom six.

    Find some guys that can PK and saw off (put together a 4th line around this plan..Good RH center, a center/winger and a winger).

    Get pro scouting to dig through all the cracks and crevices in the couch for spare change players (specifically high percentage shooters that may have been overlooked). Figure out how to acquire potential undervalued targets. To increase odds of getting a bit more of a goal threat (give them a shot as a 3rd line winger)

    Get coaching staff that doesn’t seem to ignore the evidence that their system and player usage on the PK was so astronomically predictable and they got their assess handed to them.

    Get a coaching staff that is dynamic enough to present different PP set ups and teams so that when it is obvious their PP strategy is also solved and coaches are pawning them they will be quicker to adapt and present different threats.

    Get Lucic to go back to training how he used to. He tried to change to play better with McD. It’s worse. That’s okay, just stop playing him with McD.

    Get a coach who can get the best out of a guy like Kassian. You see flashes of it. There is more game in that rooster when he is feeling it. He’s not a guy that should ever be invisible and I find it odd when he is.

    Nuge McD xxx
    Slep/Lucic – Drai – Pujajarvi
    Lucic/Slep/xxx – Strome – Kassian/Aberg
    xxx/Slep – Kharia – Aberg/Kassian

    1st line: I do not want that name to be Yamato yet.. but We need some shooters. You shouldn’t have to spend a ton of cash finding someone to feed off of Nuge and McD. I think if you let those two settle in together it’s going to pay off.

    Give the 2nd line the softest minutes we can. Not really sure Aberg is of use but we have rest of season to figure that out I guess.

    Figure out how to toss out Russel’s contract and get another RD in mix. What would it take to get Weber out of montreal? We send Russel that way with what else?

    Nurse Larsson
    Klef Weber
    Sek Bear

    Benning

  171. Wilde says:

    Some good reading here fellas.

    Here’s a late night basement update, after the results from tonight:

    team – pts % / / odds of most likely draft spot / / odds of a top 3 pick – odds at #1 overall

    BUF– 0.400 / / 4th @ 51.9% / / 48.1% – 18%

    ARI – 0.407 / / 4th @ 33.7% / / 36.2% – 12.5%
    —————————————————
    VAN – 0.415 / / 5th @ 39.1% / / 31.2% – 10.5%

    OTT – 0.442 / / 6th @ 35.5% / / 28.6% – 9.5%
    —————————————————
    DET – 0.450 / / 6th @ 32.8% / / 25.9% – 8.5%

    MTL – 0.457 / / 7th @ 38.2% / / 23.4% – 7.6%
    —————————————————
    EDM – 0.464 / / 8th @ 39.7% / / 20.9% – 6.7%

    CHI – 0.479 / / 9th @ 38.1% / / 18.3% – 5.8%

    Don’t look now, but we may pass Chicago.

    Here’s the last players drafted at 9th overall:

    M. Rasmussen
    M. Sergachev
    T. Meier
    N. Ehlers
    B. Horvat
    J. Trouba
    D. Hamilton
    M. Granlund

    Huh. You know I was going into that thinking ‘this might make a decent argument to trade the pick outright’.

    But that list is fuckin solid.

    Hmmm.

  172. leadfarmer says:

    maudite:
    I’m only spending crazy young/future assets if I’m getting the next Seth Jones type guy or for something like PK Subban when MTL stupidly dealt him…not what remains of the present Eric Karlsson.

    You are likely looking at a max year contract for high dough on Karlsson. So what that’s like 12 mil for 7 years?

    28-35…

    Passover.

    FIx bottom six.

    Find some guys that can PK and saw off (put together a 4th line around this plan..Good RH center, a center/winger and a winger).

    Get pro scouting to dig through all the cracks and crevices in the couch for spare change players (specifically high percentage shooters that may have been overlooked).Figure out how to acquire potential undervalued targets.To increase odds of getting a bit more of a goal threat (give them a shot as a 3rd line winger)

    Get coaching staff thatdoesn’t seem to ignore the evidence that their system and player usage on the PK was so astronomically predictable and they got their assess handed to them.

    Get a coaching staff that is dynamic enough to present different PP set ups and teams so that when it is obvious their PP strategy is also solved and coaches are pawning them they will be quicker to adapt and present different threats.

    Get Lucic to go back to training how he used to.He tried to change to play better with McD.It’s worse.That’s okay, just stop playing him with McD.

    Get a coach who can get the best out of a guy like Kassian.You see flashes of it.There is more game in that rooster when he is feeling it.He’s not a guy that should ever be invisible and I find it odd when he is.

    Nuge McD xxx
    Slep/Lucic – Drai– Pujajarvi
    Lucic/Slep/xxx – Strome – Kassian/Aberg
    xxx/Slep – Kharia –Aberg/Kassian

    1st line: I do not want that name to be Yamato yet..but We need some shooters. You shouldn’t have to spend a ton of cash finding someone to feed off of Nuge and McD.I think if you let those two settle in together it’s going to pay off.

    Give the 2nd line the softest minutes we can.Not really sure Aberg is of use but we have rest of season to figure that out I guess.

    Figure out how to toss out Russel’s contract and get another RD in mix.What would it take to get Weber out of montreal?We send Russel that way with what else?

    Nurse Larsson
    Klef Weber
    Sek Bear

    Benning

    Except thats pretty much the length of a defensemans prime years. So you really are getting a elite defenseman in his prime plus a couple years at the end.

    Wish the Oil would have just traded for Seth Jones when I was begging them to years ago

  173. Bank Shot says:

    maudite:
    I’m only spending crazy young/future assets if I’m getting the next Seth Jones type guy or for something like PK Subban when MTL stupidly dealt him…not what remains of the present Eric Karlsson.

    Most were against trading Nuge for Seth Jones when it looked like it was a possibility. Gotta give credit to Chiarelli for attempting that.

    Its too bad GMs don’t value Nuge like Oilers fans do.

    Subban was only one year younger than Karlsson when he was traded. I am all in favour of the OIlers going hard after Karlsson, because whatever they give up, it will be a win. That’s what happens when stars are traded.

  174. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Other than Toronto or Montreal I doubt that is true. Canadian media markets are peanuts. Players like Crosby transcend that nationally but when is the last time you saw an Erik Karlsson Tim Horton’s commercial?

    Eberle had commercials a few years ago.

    If you are a defenseman you are especially not getting endorsement deals in the US. Most American media markets dont care enough about hockey to spend endorsement dollars on a non star forward

  175. Wilde says:

    leadfarmer: Except thats pretty much the length of a defensemans prime years.So you really are getting a elite defenseman in his prime plus a couple years at the end.

    Wish the Oil would have just traded for Seth Jones when I was begging them to years ago

    I’m also in favour of trading for Karlsson, but 28+ is not a defenseman’s prime.

  176. Professor Q says:

    Bank Shot,

    If it were to cost Draisaitl, Puljujärvi, Nurse/Klefbom, and a draft pick, would it still be a wise decision? Mind you, it could require less assets due to the very different contract control, but maybe not due to skill and status?

  177. Wilde says:

    Professor Q,

    It was Drai, #4, and one of the defensemen for Subban and the #9.

    EDM would have won that trade, I think.

    So long as it was Nurse and not Klef going out, and EDM picked Sergachyev.

  178. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: I’m also in favour of trading for Karlsson, but 28+ is not a defenseman’s prime.

    Most if not ALL Norris level defencemen are excellent from 28-35+.

    MacInnis put up 68 points at 39.
    Chelios, Coffey, Chara, Lidstrom, Bourque, Blake, Leetch, Niedermayer.
    Pronger was doing fine at 35 up until being wiped out by injuries.

    That’s all the retired Norris winners dating back to 1985.

    Lots of these guys were still great contributors at age 37+.

    I would have zero worries about Karlsson’s age.

  179. Bank Shot says:

    Professor Q:
    Bank Shot,

    If it were to cost Draisaitl, Puljujärvi, Nurse/Klefbom, and a draft pick, would it still be a wise decision? Mind you, it could require less assets due to the very different contract control, but maybe not due to skill and status?

    Well it won’t cost that much. Whatever it realistically ends up costing will be less valuable than Karlsson.

  180. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: Most if not ALL Norris level defencemen are excellent from 28-35+.

    MacInnis putup 68 points at 39.
    Chelios, Coffey, Chara, Lidstrom, Bourque, Blake, Leetch, Niedermayer.
    Pronger was doing fine at 35 up until being wiped out by injuries.

    That’s all the retired Norris winners dating back to 1985.

    Lots of these guys were still great contributors at age 37+.

    I would have zero worries about Karlsson’s age.

    I’m not worried about Karlsson’s age either, I’m just saying 28+ is definitively not the prime.

    All of those examples are from a time when the league was much, much older as a whole.

    And it’s not a matter of whether or not they’re still excellent contributors in comparison to the rest of the league, it’s a comparison to their past selves.

    Overall I think people think/want players’ primes to much later than they are in reality.

  181. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: I’m not worried about Karlsson’s age either, I’m just saying 28+ is definitively not the prime.

    All of those examples are from a time when the league was much, much older as a whole.

    And it’s not a matter of whether or not they’re still excellent contributors in comparison to the rest of the league, it’s a comparison to their past selves.

    Overall I think people think/want players’ primes to much later than they are in reality.

    Yeah that’s fair. I think its especially true with forwards. Lots of high scoring defencemen bloom later though and have their best productive years 25-30.

    Ryan Suter will probably hit a career high this year at 33. His current best was two years ago.
    Chara’s best two seasons offensively were 30 and 31.
    Giordano didn’t even bloom until about 28.
    Burns had his best years around 30.

    Even a slightly less good Erik Karlsson is still a top ten defenceman.

  182. Professor Q says:

    Wilde:
    Professor Q,

    It was Drai, #4, and one of the defensemen for Subban and the #9.

    EDM would have won that trade, I think.

    So long as it was Nurse and not Klef going out, and EDM picked Sergachyev.

    I just read another article from about time (Edmonton Journal) and it said there was another pick that might have to have been added. Unsure though.

    But seeing as we already picked Puljujärvi with the #4, I included him.

    I only ask this because now we know how good and valuable Draisaitl is as well as his contract cost (as well as the D), and we’d still have to lock in Karlsson if possible (we’d have the room and hopefully the winning experience next year to persuade him).

    With Subban, he is already locked in so you don’t have to worry (at the time) and even if not, McDavid likely would have been enough of a convincing factor.

    I know people say that anything would be worth it, to see Karlsson with McDavid, but we’d be losing our very good 2nd Line Centre/1st Line RW, and have to put Nuge back to C when he’s just becoming even better with McDavid. Or find another 2nd Line C.

  183. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    flyfish1168,

    Plus minus is derided on this blog as a flawed stat, however, I agree that it tells a tale with Karlsson.

    Again I watch quite a few Sens games and I’m sure a few folks did the same during the playoff run last year but here’s a quick synopsis.

    The Sens lack high end talent up front, they had/have some creative guys who can score (Stone, Hoffman, Turris/Duchene) but things fall off dramatically after that. As such they play an Arizona style, sit back, protect the box and capitalize on chances via fast breaks when they occur. They’ve played this way for years, which has earned them the nickname around some in Ottawa as the “pesky-Sens” always buzzing, never out of it, finding ways to get points.

    I’m not a fan of the style but hey they rode it to OT in Game 7 of the East final so pox on me.

    Karlsson plays 27ish minutes a night in all situations in that system. At the same time since the beginning of the 2013 season he’s been in on roughly a 30% of the teams offense (Goals + Assist /total goals scored):

    2013/2014 – 31%
    2014/2015 – 28%
    2015/2016 – 35%
    2016/2017 – 33%
    2017/2018 – 27% (so far)

    This season has been a bit of a down year BUT I would chock up the slight production decrease (we’re talking 3 – 4 at this pace) to the bizarre year in Ottawa. All that said I would bet that barring injury he ends the year near his pace at 30%.

    Those numbers are pretty insane. For comparative purposes, he and Hedman are 7 months apart in bdays. Karlsson drafted in 08, began playing in the NHL in 09 while Hedman came over as a raw rookie and started in 09. Here is there head to head over that time. Games, goals, assists, points, PP points.

    Karlsson – 620 125 385 510 – 193
    Hedman – 614 76 276 352 – 101

    This blog (myself included) loves Hedman, but playing in practically the same amount of games, on a team, lacking Stamkos, Kucherov, Callahan, Johnson, Palat riding shotgun Karlsson scores 50 goals and a 150 points more. And he does it 6 inches and 35 pounds shorter and lighter than Hedman. Erik Karlsson is CRAZY

    Digging a bit deeper here is Karlsson’s EV + SH point shares

    2013/2014 – 61%
    2014/2015 – 55%
    2015/2016 – 68%
    2016/2017 – 61%
    2017/2018 – 70% (so far)

    This is nuts. This is McDavid as a defenseman. He puts up EV points on defense at the same rate that CmD/Drai do as forwards.

    This isn’t getting a Lindros level pick like some have mentioned this is getting the best offensive defenseman in the world in the prime of his career to play along with the best offensive forward in the NHL. This is having Paul Coffey playing with Wayne Gretzky level shit right here.

    To look down on the idea of having Erik Karlsson play with Connor McDavid is absurd. Adding Karlsson to this team would be as big of a deal as signing Draisaitl. It would send shock waves around the league. Karlsson has two Norris trophies and is perpetually in the hunt for it every single year.

    And if he came to Edmonton he wouldn’t have to play 26 minutes a game, he wouldn’t have to play in all situations. You could put him with something resembling a stay at home Dman (I’d nominate Sekera) and push him offensively.

    In Ottawa the offense runs through him. Skating it out, headman passes, point shots, facilitator, down low cycling he can and does do it all.

    I know I’m beating a drum here but I can’t stress enough just how unbelievably earth-shattering it would be to add Erik Karlsson while keeping all of: CmD, Drai, Nurse, Larsson, JP, Yammamoto and have Sekera return to something resembling last year’s version. Without even stretching the truth you have three guys who can score at a PPG pace and score at 70% share at EV.

    The likelihood of it happening is low, I don’t disagree BUT we know he’s being discussed and the rumour of assets being discussed here today is not crazy, in fact its downright reasonable.

    Resigning him would be difficult cap wise, but you can make it work by shipping out one of the anchors and that isn’t impossible.

    Adding Karlsson drastically changes the complexion of the team instantly. Making predictions for next year is next to impossible but think long and hard what the lineup would look like next season with Karlsson and Hoffman in vs Nuge and Klefbom.

    I love Nuge but it isn’t even close.

  184. HT Joe says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    HT Joe,

    – HT this is an elaborate thought chain. I appreciate it because you start with the premise that Chia isn’t an idiot and he has access to better information than we do.
    – of course we can never know the full logic behind moves but your attempt to decipher the moves is far more nuanced and in line with reality.
    – simply trotting our some 5×5 stats to show how much better ebs is than strome one a c the other a w then saying therefore it’s clear chia is an idiot it doesn’t work that way
    – ps I’m with the other guy. Karlson isn’t coming here. Just like Lucic isn’t getting traded. I don’t get why we contemplate such fantasyland

    Thanks. Chia has to be smart, and he has to have info we don’t have. So why is he making seemingly silly moves. If he trades RNH+ out this offseason (and the “+” may be a LHD), it would surprise me if the return wasn’t a cheaper top-6 winger with a penchant for shooting (and a RHD).

  185. Old Timer says:

    There is a lot of talk about the Oilers trading for Karlsson. If the Oilers were going to get the player from 2 years ago I would be a strong supporter of the trade. But are they?

    I have watched him skating this year and \i am not impressed with his acceleration and mobility. It appears that his foot problem has slowed him down and may linger for years. I believe that any trade for Karlsson would be extremely high risk in terms of what player are you getting and the cost of same..

  186. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    Some good reading here fellas.

    Here’s a late night basement update, after the results from tonight:

    team – pts % / / odds of most likely draft spot / / odds of a top 3 pick – odds at #1 overall

    BUF– 0.400 / / 4th @ 51.9% / / 48.1% – 18%

    ARI – 0.407 / / 4th @ 33.7% / / 36.2% – 12.5%
    —————————————————
    VAN – 0.415 / / 5th @ 39.1% / / 31.2% – 10.5%

    OTT – 0.442 / / 6th @ 35.5% / / 28.6% – 9.5%
    —————————————————
    DET – 0.450 / / 6th @ 32.8% / / 25.9% – 8.5%

    MTL – 0.457 / / 7th @ 38.2% / / 23.4% – 7.6%
    —————————————————
    EDM – 0.464 / / 8th @ 39.7% / / 20.9% – 6.7%

    CHI – 0.479 / / 9th @ 38.1% / / 18.3% – 5.8%

    Don’t look now, but we may pass Chicago.

    Here’s the last players drafted at 9th overall:

    M. Rasmussen
    M. Sergachev
    T. Meier
    N. Ehlers
    B. Horvat
    J. Trouba
    D. Hamilton
    M. Granlund

    Huh. You know I was going into that thinking ‘this might make a decent argument to trade the pick outright’.

    But that list is fuckin solid.

    Hmmm.

    Good point. There will be some excellent RHD’s available at 8 / 9 – either Dobson or Bouchard would be a great fit. And if we can pick up another late-round pick, guys like Merkley, Addison and Woo would be huge additions to the system.

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