G71 2017-18: Oilers at Panthers

My Dad used to say there were two kinds of good music: Country, and Western. He’d chuckle after but, as with most things he said and did, he meant it. There is a pureness, a clarity, an innocence about great country songs, it can strip away every damn thing but the one thing that matters. My Dad’s favorite country singer was Hank Williams, saw him in Vancouver a time or two. If Hank Williams’ story and the endless youth movement of the Edmonton Oilers have anything in common, it’s Leon Payne’s Lost Highway. I was just a lad, nearly twenty two, neither good nor bad, just a kid like you.

THE ATHLETIC!

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YOUNG TALENT

After a long and frustrating season like this one, it’s easy to overlook the enormous gifts enjoyed by the Oilers organization. Allow me to refresh your memory about just how much talent will be available to Edmonton this coming season.

  • Bubbling Under: Top-10 pick 2018; Kailer Yamamoto; Ethan Bear; Caleb Jones, Tyler Benson, Kirill Maksimov, Ostap Safin.
  • The McDavid cluster: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • The prime cluster: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Jujhar Khaira, Matt Benning, Ryan Strome, Anton Slepyshev.
  • The veteran cluster: Cam Talbot, Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera, Kris Russell.

It’s important to stop the bleeding, by that I mean Nuge, Klefbom, JP and the first-round pick need to be parts of the machinery this fall (the pick might be in college or junior). There should be no whale hunts because there is no one magic formula to get out of this mess. Draft seven or eight kids every June, make smaller trades that improve quality and depth, and begin digging out of this mess by rolling up your sleeves. That’s the ticket.

MORE THAN THIS, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 4-3-0, goal differential -3 (8 points)
  • March 2017: 5-1-1, goal differential +12 (11 points)
  • March 2018: 3-3-1, goal differential -1 (7 points)
  • March 14, 2016: Nashville 3, Edmonton 2 (Source)
  • March 20, 2017: Edmonton 2, Los Angeles 0 (Source)

Man that 2017 team was a rocking by this time, leveling some pretty good hockey clubs on the way to the 103-point season. McDavid is ripping it up again and Cam Talbot has finally come around as well. We’re running out of daylight on the season, still some time to improve the final number.

AFTER 70, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 27-36-7, goal differential -44 (61 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 37-24-9, goal differential +27 (83 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 30-35-5, goal differential -33 (65 points)
  • March 12, 2016: Arizona 4, Edmonton 0 (Source)
  • March 18, 2017: Edmonton 2, Vancouver 0 (Source)

If you flipped the record (giving Edmonton 35-30-5 currently) it still wouldn’t be enough. That’s why adding a scoring winger and a power-play defenseman doesn’t make sense. You are more than two players away.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 3-3-1, 7 points in seven games

WHAT SHOULD SUMMER LOOK LIKE?

I’ve been arguing for some time that the Oilers should not be bold this summer, but rather use the draft, free agency and trade route to add things that don’t take away from the group above. Some examples:

  • Use the draft pick, keep the player. After offloading the 2015 picks and Hall, the team could use one more impact prospect. Grab Svechnikov if you’re lucky, but Wahlstrom or Hughes or Smith could also be available. There’s still time to wait two years for a prospect, the Oilers window will still be open. Also, the Seattle expansion means this selection won’t need to be protected, giving Edmonton a real advantage over most established teams.
  • Run with the current blue, use Ethan Bear as possible mid-season addition. If the entire defense returns healthy, a top six D of Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Russell and Sekera-Benning should be able to hold its own. I think Ethan Bear needs a little more time, but is close enough that we shouldn’t be hoping the Oilers deal for a big name. If it happens, and it is value, then fair enough. What would you give for Tyson Barrie? Justin Faulk? If it’s Nuge, where are you acquiring a scoring winger? By dealing Klefbom? Are you buying more or less years? Is it really going to help?
  • See about Patrick Maroon, or Thomas Vanek. A wise one-year deal with a veteran will offer cover to the young wingers and give the coach some options.
  • Find some penalty killers. I actually like some of the current group (Nuge, Khaira, Pakarinen) but would like the third line to have more PK men.
  • Find Pitlick. Edmonton got into some tough luck with Pitlick, a player who would have been under their control (RFA) before an injury allowed him full free agency. Edmonton needs another one like him. Ordinarily you develop your own, but the kids in the Oilers system who may turn into Pitlick (Tyler Benson is a strong candidate) will need some time.

There is no magic pill. There is no summer fix. Make smart decisions, not on Tyson Barrie, but on players who will eventually turn into Tyson Barrie. Draft. Procure. Rinse. Repeat. This is very basic stuff.

 

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324 Responses to "G71 2017-18: Oilers at Panthers"

« Older Comments
  1. StixMalone says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    So is it true that tmac finally dropped Lucic to the third line??? (Not watching the game)

    Lucic hasn’t played much in 3rd

  2. Spooky Lynx says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    So is it true that tmac finally dropped Lucic to the third line??? (Not watching the game)

    Drew had mentioned with around 5:00 remaining in the 3rd that Lucic has only played 1:21 to that point in the period.

  3. npanciroli says:

    StixMalone,

    Definitely looks good there.

  4. frjohnk says:

    StixMalone: Lucic hasn’t played much in 3rd

    Too many Pouliots by Lucic today.

  5. AshetonisGod says:

    Reggie looking better past few games. Quicker reactions

  6. Gerta Rauss says:

    ..and Lucic makes an appearance with 2 min remaining

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    npanciroli:
    It’s unlikely Rattie is the guy. But the nice thing about RNH Mcdavid is you can put almost any RH shot with speed with them next year.

    What I’d like to know is why guys like Caggiula, Aberg and Rattie are gifted these minutes but Slepyshev, Kassian and Puljujarvi have to “earn” them on “merit”?

  8. npanciroli says:

    ArmchairGM,

    i have no idea. Frustrating to say the least.

  9. Spooky Lynx says:

    McPoint makes it 89 on the season.

  10. OmJo says:

    I just came on to say I told ya Ty Rattie should have been given a shot this season.

    Edit: This doesn’t mean he should be 1RW, but I’ve thought he could be a useful RW on a team with well, 3 RWs not including him (before Aberg was traded for): JP, Kassian and Slepyshev.

  11. ArmchairGM says:

    Rattie!!

  12. StixMalone says:

    No reason to not keep Rattie up….

  13. AshetonisGod says:

    Luicic outta gas…. venom…. hands…. smarts

  14. npanciroli says:

    yay, 3 McPoints. Rattie goal.

  15. Gerta Rauss says:

    There is the goal for Rattie-empty netter with assist to McDavid

  16. frjohnk says:

    npanciroli:
    yay, 3 McPoints. Rattie goal.

    2 points back of Kucherov.

    Should be a great match up tomorrow.

  17. Gerta Rauss says:

    Strong 3rd period-not a full 60 minutes but a nice road win

  18. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    frjohnk: 2 points back of Kucherov.

    Should be a great match up tomorrow.

    OOOOooooOOOO…. 😯

  19. Gerta Rauss says:

    Oilers game transitions into Mississauga vs Niagra Ice Dogs for all you Kiril Maksimov fans…Sportsnet West

    *edit-he rings one off the post

  20. Confused says:

    Think Connor is bringing things together with sheer willpower.

    Cannot cope with being on a losing team so really ramping things into unknown terrority.

    Others starting to follow

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    Lets play spot-the-top-prospect using TOI from today’s game:

    Rattie – 15:17
    Caggiula – 12:16
    Kassian – 10:39
    Puljujarvi – 9:53
    Pakarinen – 9:45

  22. AshetonisGod says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Lucic played just over 10 minutes, team looks a lot better. Addition by subtraction.

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    How the hell is Adam Larsson not at least the third star.

  24. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Lets play spot-the-top-prospect using TOI from today’s game:

    Rattie – 15:17
    Caggiula – 12:16
    Kassian – 10:39
    Puljujarvi – 9:53
    Pakarinen – 9:45

    JP may the guy going out for that RHD

  25. Professor Q says:

    “That’s what you do, you corral him.”

    And don’t get any penalties nor rough retaliation for your efforts.

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: JP may the guy going out for that RHD

    Well, they’re certainly doing a great job showcasing him!

  27. who says:

    OilClog: Hmmm they have Nuge for as long as they want him for, just have to pay him. It’s all on the Oilers

    They have to protect players in the expansion draft, every team does, same amount of players.. it’s a big deal to everyone but I’m not adjusting franchise course because of an expansion draft.

    GM’s have just been through an expansion draft with many lessons learned.. pretty sure Seattle isn’t going to have the same unknown advantages Vegas had.

    Again, they do have to do something and I think that something is.. keeping your already developed high end draft picks and building around them. Not shipping out the high end draft picks that have developed for new high end draft picks that need developing.

    They need to move forward, become a legitimate organization rather then a glorified farm team.

    Maybe what I’m suggesting is doing something it’s just not in agreement to your view.

    I think you misunderstood my post.
    I am not saying they should trade Nuge for a draft pick. I am saying they shouldn’t trade their first rounder for another Nuge.
    In 3 years they MIGHT be able to re sign 1 Nuge. They certainly can’t afford 2.
    The Oilers already have Mcdavid and Drai signed for big money. They also have a lot of money tied up in NMCs. They need to keep drafting players so they have a large pool of cheap complimentary players.
    I think your approach may make us better for a year or two but will weaken us for a lot of Mcdavids prime years.

  28. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Looking at the point totals after the game, noticed how MacKinnon was tied with McDavid (before this game) and did it playing 7 less games…

    Damn… I’m betting on him winning the Hart this year… without him, Colorado is where we are in the standings… no where near playoffs!

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk: Not sure if it’s same media. Maybe a few. But majority I’m talking about did not pick Oilers as Cup favorites.

    Chias track record is not very favourable for him and most have taken notice. Some have said or written if a GM needs to make a move to better his team, he should trade with Chia.

    – your actually wrong on this. Vegas odds had us favourite. I can point to ESPN yahoo si sportsnet artichokes. All has us bonfide legit contenders going to build off last year

    – it’s just wrong to suggest that going into the season we were a sexy pick coming off a strong season with a Clancy vote coach Verona vote goalie and gm who did the hard thing by trading away hall for a rhd but it worked out.

    – that was the msm narrative. It just was.

    – results matter we sucked now the gm coach and goalie all suck. But the goalie will rebound and everyone else has to go but don’t make any radical changes.

  30. anjinsan says:

    Emotional 1st STAR of game: Jujhar Khaira!!!!!!!

    Positives on season: Nuge (looking good with McDavid), Nurse, Khaira, Bear

  31. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – and our shitty coach it doesn’t look like the te has quit on him.

  32. Wilde says:

    The Oilers murdered the Panthers in the 3rd harder than they lost the first two periods.

    Last 20 mins:

    21-9 CF
    17-8 FF
    15-1 SCF
    3-0 HDCF

    Dayum.

  33. OmJo says:

    Wilde:
    The Oilers murdered the Panthers in the 3rd harder than they lost the first two periods.

    Last 20 mins:

    21-9 CF
    17-8 FF
    15-1 SCF
    3-0 HDCF

    Dayum.

    Oilers domination to follow!

  34. Gayfish says:

    I was on team trade the pick, but I’ve had a change of heart. I think this team is too far away for a short term fix. Yeah, we are losing a window where Klefbom and Larsson are on sweetheart deals, but I still feel like we are better off long term. we might be better off short term as well. Not to mention that high end defensemen seem to be more translatable than in the past. I think it would hurt this team way too much to miss on a potential Werenski calibre player.

  35. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – your actually wrong on this. Vegas odds had us favourite. I can point to ESPN yahoo si sportsnet artichokes. All has us bonfide legit contenders going to build off last year

    – it’s just wrong to suggest that going into the season we were a sexy pick coming off a strong season with a Clancy vote coach Verona vote goalie and gm who did the hard thing by trading away hall for a rhd but it worked out.

    – that was the msm narrative. It just was.

    – results matter we sucked now the gm coach and goalie all suck. But the goalie will rebound and everyone else has to go but don’t make any radical changes.

    Yeah I remember those articles. ESPN said Strome would hit 72 points as well.

    I do think there are some media that we both follow picked the Oilers to be cup contenders anwho also believe that Chia does not do well in trades and negotiations.

    Many of the media I follow or have read saw Edmonton as a bubble team or would make playoffs. This same media has also talked about Chias poor track record.

    An examination of his work should not only include how the team has done over the three years but also the moves he has made during that time.

    So if we look at how the team has done during his tenure. We have 1 playoff victory. But our 3 year record with him is also in the area as one 3 year stretch with Tambellini.

    I believe he is better than Tambellini but that’s not saying much as the bar is quite low in that comparison.

    As for his track record in big moves and contracts as GM, pretty safe to say that most Oiler fans say he has fumbled in those areas. And those two areas are pretty big when looking at an examination of a GM.

    Also there is sizeable minority ( I don’t think majority but could be) of Oiler fans that think Chia has been worse for the Oilers than Eakins.

    I’ve mentioned before that my uncle has season tickets and pretty much everybody in that section is not a fan of Chia and his moves.

    While I’d love to see Chia go before the “annual summer damage inc plan” commenses after the Cup final, am weary of who would replace him. No OBC please.

  36. trencan says:

    Panthers today didnt loose against Oilers, but against themselves. They should have score more goals in first two periods. We didnt deserve to win today, but thats sport.

  37. godot10 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Looking at the point totals after the game, noticed how MacKinnon was tied with McDavid (before this game) and did it playing 7 less games…

    Damn… I’m betting on him winning the Hart this year… without him, Colorado is where we are in the standings… no where near playoffs!

    In other words, the difference between Colorado and Edmonton is coaching. Because we have McDavid so why shouldn’t the OIlers be where Colorado is?

  38. --hudson-- says:

    Todd’s postgame:
    – Comments on Ty Rattie
    – Question on the number of powerplays in Florida’s favour. Todd gives a look.
    – Glowing review of Khaira.

    Source video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPjE2CMpUNA
    ————————————————–
    Q: …kind of helped spark this team because you ended up with more shots in the third, than you did in the first two periods, and just kind of took it away from there?
    A: Well anyone, at any point in the third was going to be essential, so the earlier we could get it, we could gain a little bit of momentum. You know, not having a lot of shots after two periods was a byproduct of how well they checked, but also how often we went to the penalty box. We never gained any momentum offensively, we had to kill, and kill, and then it usually takes you 30 seconds through a minute to recover from the penalty kill, and get your lines all organized again. So I didn’t think we gave ourselves a chance early in the game, yet the kill did a phenomenal job. Cam was excellent on it and it’s probably the difference tonight.

    Q: What did you think about Ty Rattie’s game tonight?
    A: I thought I played a tremendous game, he took advantage of the opportunity that was presented to him, and played with two really good players that, who also had good games. That line was a force, not only because they score goals, but the line that they played against has been a dominant line in the league for quite a chunk of time this season, and Barkov is as good as they come, and you know, to outscore and out chance, not necessarily out chance, but to outscore and beat that line was a tough feat and they did it.

    Q: You’ve been in a couple of games against Florida and the powerplays are ten to one or something. Is that style that results in that or what do you think?
    A: I don’t have the answer, you probably got to ask somebody else. I don’t know if they (the referees) do anything after so no, I don’t know.

    Q: You guys, lately you’ve been putting together some decent games. What’s sort of clicking?
    A: Well special teams have been better, we’ve won games on the power play, the penalty kill again tonight is evident. I think Talb’s has settled in, and I used the words “he’s a calming influence”, and again tonight he was that. When we got jumping around in our end or out of position, he was able to make some tremendous saves, and get us whistles when we needed them to get fresh guys on the ice. And a little bit of the pride factor too. We were all really disappointed with where we are in the season, but we’re not going to roll over and play dead. We plan on playing hard and trying to get better, moving the needle in the right direction, and I think we’ve done that. We haven’t won all the time but we have done that on most nights.

    Q: …line up tomorrow?
    A: Oh, you’re asking me way too soon. I got to get an injury update and figure everything out.

    Q: How much respect does Jujhar Khaira just continue to get from his teammates for not only the way he plays but then stepping up like he did tonight?
    A: A lot…a lot, you know, and most of it is because of how he plays, but it’s also because what a good teammate he is. He stepped in real quick and took care of a teammate, and show everybody else that he cares. But I’ve been so impressed with his ability to manage situations on the ice, and not only check, but provide offense so he’s really come a long way as a player.

  39. StixMalone says:

    trencan:
    Panthers today didnt loose against Oilers, but against themselves. They should have score more goals in first two periods.We didnt deserve to win today, but thats sport.

    Oilers shoulda had at least 3 more goals today. So I disagree. Remember Talbot “gave” them a free goal….

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    Is Rattie our Pitlick?

  41. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: In other words, the difference between Colorado and Edmonton is coaching.Because we have McDavid so why shouldn’t the OIlers be where Colorado is?

    I think Bednar is about the last coach you want to compare Tmac with. I’m not in love with Tmac, but Bednar coached his team to a historically bad season last year. This just reinforces the notion that Tmac is a good coach and the team is simply playing bad. This doesn’t strengthen your fire Tmac arguments at all.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    There is no magic pill. There is no summer fix. Make smart decisions, not on Tyson Barrie, but on players who will eventually turn into Tyson Barrie. Draft. Procure. Rinse. Repeat. This is very basic stuff.

    While I agree that in principle I think it misses an important point.

    The main culprit for this season was the health and lack of depth on the Dcorps.

    Having an Actual 2RD would do this team wonders and properly slot Benning at 3RD and Bear on the farm to start the season.

    You don’t have to trade Nuge for Barrie to do it.

    Demers went for a 3rd liner and is playing well with OEL on ARI’s top pair.

    It might take some creative GMing, but 2RD is a “must fill” if this team is to compete and no they can’t count on Sekera, Russell or any of the others to do it until Benning is ready, that’s the lack of depth I’m talking about.

    You need to get Russell or Lucic off the roster to make room for a salary though.

    Goddamn Pete.

  43. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    There is no magic pill. There is no summer fix. Make smart decisions, not on Tyson Barrie, but on players who will eventually turn into Tyson Barrie. Draft. Procure. Rinse. Repeat. This is very basic stuff.

    While I agree thatin principle I think it misses an important point.

    The main culprit for this season was the health and lack of depth on the Dcorps.

    Having an Actual 2RD would do this team wonders and properly slot Benning at 3RD and Bear on the farm to start the season.

    You don’t have to trade Nuge for Barrie to do it.

    Demers went for a 3rd liner and is playing well with OEL on ARI’s top pair.

    It might take some creative GMing, but 2RD is a “must fill” if this team is to compete and no they can’t count on Sekera, Russell or any of the others to do it until Benning is ready, that’s the lack of depth I’m talking about.

    You need to get Russell or Lucic off the roster to make room for a salary though.

    Goddamn Pete.

    And there’s the problem.
    Oilers cant afford another 5 million dollar dman without moving one out.
    So do you want to trade Klefbom or Nurse. Cause those are your options this summer.

  44. Woogie63 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Lets play spot-the-top-prospect using TOI from today’s game:

    Rattie – 15:17
    Caggiula – 12:16
    Kassian – 10:39
    Puljujarvi – 9:53
    Pakarinen – 9:45

    To be fair JP does not kill penalties nor play with McDavid.

    I have liked how JP has been handled this year his game is improving…a lot.

    Playing with Strome and Lucic on a third line and 2nd PP might be helping his development in a mindful way?

  45. Woogie63 says:

    who: And there’s the problem.Oilers cant afford another 5 million dollar dman without moving one out.
    So do you want to trade Klefbom or Nurse. Cause those are your options this summer.

    Can’t a healthy Sekera play RSD the way he did in the World Cup?

    Klefbom (Healthy)- Larsson
    Nurse- Sekera (Healthy)
    Russell-Benning

    Looks good to me

  46. who says:

    Woogie63: Can’t a healthy Sekera play RSD the way he did in the World Cup?

    Klefbom (Healthy)- Larsson
    Nurse- Sekera (Healthy)
    Russell-Benning

    Looks good to me

    I think so.
    But apparently if you don’t shoot right you are incapable of playing RD.

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I didn’t get to watch, good on them for getting one, although I still would rather they finish lower. I am so glad Connor got 3 pts, I really want him to win again. Some salve for what must be so hard on him.

    Assuming they won’t or can’t move any NMCs, I think that there is enough talent to contend with a few tweaks. Not dominate the league, but win against any team. They have shown even this season that when the whole team shows up they can play with anyone. Sometimes even with passengers.

    I would add Khudobin, Winnik and Grabner. I think they can get K for 1.5 partly because of opportunity, Talbot goes on big slumps and plays too much, games for if he plays well.

    Winnik I would sign at 2×2, to make cap I’d trade Kassian. He’s overpaid and isn’t reliable in any game state, there are enough knuckles still, and having a better player is far more important.

    Grabner is one of those players who doesn’t stick anywhere. He scored but gets few assists. I think he can be signed for 2.75 x 2 or 3, no movement clauses. He also PKs well. The chance at Oilers top 6 should appeal. He’s fast and plays either side. That he isn’t a complete player doesn’t matter, they need a scorer and he does that. He has scored more than Hoffman and costs nothing.

    I would resign Slepy at 1.1 because he is a better player and scored more than Caggiula who I would trade, he is small, poor defensively and can’t score, that is a boat anchor. Slepy has to agree to play wherever he’s asked and is promised 82 if he shows up ready and healthy and plays well enough. Strome at 2.75 because of his offense or move him. Nurse at 4.75×8, Benning at 1.75×2.

    If Quenneville the elder comes up McL gets the pipe. Maybe regardless, and his assistants are gone either way. I’d start the season like this, Yama is a given on the roster IMO or at least very soon in. I assume Lucic, Klef and Sekera return to established levels, there isn’t much flexibility so you have to.

    Nuge Connor Grabner
    Lucic Drai JP
    Khaira Strome Yama
    Slepy Winnik Aberg
    Pakarinen at .8m

    Sekera Larsson
    Klef Benning
    Nurse Russell
    Auvitu

    Talbot Khudobin

    Perhaps Bear forces the issue, but unless supernova he waits a year until trades can happen.

    I don’t think this is the best roster but I do think a good coach has enough talent and tools to win with this team and because Connor.

    This comes in 2.23 under the cap with 2.7 potential bonuses. It’s doable and gains assets trading Cags and Kassian.

  48. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woogie63: Can’t a healthy Sekera play RSD the way he did in the World Cup?

    Klefbom (Healthy)- Larsson
    Nurse- Sekera (Healthy)
    Russell-Benning

    Looks good to me

    I agree. While not ideal there are two that can slide into 2RD depending on who’s playing well, rotate Sek Benning and Russell there. Wait a year. Other teams do it and win. The thing is to get players playing well. Other teams don’t self destruct with just as many injury issues as the Oilers.

    And get a backup that can push Talbot, out of the net if necessary.

  49. Bos8 says:

    Maksimov with a goal and an apple today.

  50. Spooky Lynx says:

    Looking ahead to the Lightning got me thinking about a moment in 97’s career.

    Stamkos on McDavid in September of 2015:

    “This guy is a special kid,” the Tampa Bay Lightning star told ESPN.com. “I think he’s better than me right now. I wouldn’t have a second thought on saying that.”

    https://www.tsn.ca/stamkos-mcdavid-better-than-me-1.357278

    One of the most exciting moments of that thrilling summer.

    Turned out to be true, but I remember a lot of people spinning this in vain attempts to temper expectations.

  51. Woogie63 says:

    Hockeydb

    Aren’t we expected to “live through” 300 games before we know enough about a dman?

    Russell 709 games
    Sekera 675 games

    Larsson 404 games
    Klefbom 253 games
    Nurse 185 games
    Benning 125 games

    Bear 7 games

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woogie63: Can’t a healthy Sekera play RSD the way he did in the World Cup?

    Klefbom (Healthy)- Larsson
    Nurse- Sekera (Healthy)
    Russell-Benning

    Looks good to me

    The problem with this is that an injury pushes Benning to the second pair. I’m happy if the team does very little this year, but a second pair RHD needs to happen.

  53. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think having 0-1 top 6 wingers for good chunk of the season cratered our season the most. There are worse d corpse in the league with teams still succeeding. I mean Vegas is surviving with Engelland

  54. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I didn’t get to watch, good on them for getting one, although I still would rather they finish lower. I am so glad Connor got 3 pts, I really want him to win again. Some salve for what must be so hard on him.

    Assuming they won’t or can’t move any NMCs, I think that there is enough talent to contend with a few tweaks. Not dominate the league, but win against any team. They have shown even this season that when the whole team shows up they can play with anyone. Sometimes even with passengers.

    I would add Khudobin, Winnik and Grabner. I think they can get K for 1.5 partly because of opportunity, Talbot goes on big slumps and plays too much, games for if he plays well.

    Winnik I would sign at 2×2, to make cap I’d trade Kassian. He’s overpaid and isn’t reliable in any game state, there are enough knuckles still, and having a better player is far more important.

    Grabner is one of those players who doesn’t stick anywhere. He scored but gets few assists. I think he can be signed for 2.75 x 2 or 3, no movement clauses. He also PKs well. The chance at Oilers top 6 should appeal. He’s fast and plays either side. That he isn’t a complete player doesn’t matter, they need a scorer and he does that. He has scored more than Hoffman and costs nothing.

    I would resign Slepy at 1.1 because he is a better player and scored more than Caggiula who I would trade, he is small, poor defensively and can’t score, that is a boat anchor. Slepy has to agree to play wherever he’s asked and is promised 82 if he shows up ready and healthy and plays well enough. Strome at 2.75 because of his offense or move him. Nurse at 4.75×8, Benning at 1.75×2.

    If Quenneville the elder comes up McL gets the pipe. Maybe regardless, and his assistants are gone either way. I’d start the season like this, Yama is a given on the roster IMO or at least very soon in. I assume Lucic, Klef and Sekera return to established levels, there isn’t much flexibility so you have to.

    Nuge Connor Grabner
    Lucic Drai JP
    Khaira Strome Yama
    Slepy Winnik Aberg
    Pakarinen at .8m

    Sekera Larsson
    Klef Benning
    Nurse Russell
    Auvitu

    Talbot Khudobin

    Perhaps Bear forces the issue, but unless supernova he waits a year until trades can happen.

    I don’t think this is the best roster but I do think a good coach has enough talent and tools to win with this team and because Connor.

    This comes in 2.23 under the cap with 2.7 potential bonuses. It’s doable and gains assets trading Cags and Kassian.

    I think you are paying Benning too much money in your model. I think he gets 1.2 million tops.
    Also why are you so high on Winnick? I don’t know much about him but you seem pretty specific on this player.

  55. who says:

    JimmyV1965: The problem with this is that an injury pushes Benning to the second pair. I’m happy if the team does very little this year, but a second pair RHD needs to happen.

    Okay. But how do you get, and afford one?

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: The problem with this is that an injury pushes Benning to the second pair. I’m happy if the team does very little this year, but a second pair RHD needs to happen.

    The problem is he names on the trade rumours mill aren’t likely that much of an upgrade on Benning – Faulk and Barrie. Yes Barrie has more offense but will he help GA which is the bigger problem? I’m not sure, and maybe better coaching fixes the breakouts. Really, shouldn’t any team be able to do basic play? Is it the players or coaching?

    We’ve been down the whale hunting route before. Benning will be another year older and if paired with a capable partner should be ok.

    IF you could get a better two way D at a fair cost I’d do it, but it’s unlikely. Or find the next big thing but that is hard and even more risky.

  57. Woogie63 says:

    JimmyV1965: The problem with this is that an injury pushes Benning to the second pair. I’m happy if the team does very little this year, but a second pair RHD needs to happen.

    Capfriendly

    Here is the RHD for the divisional leaders. Isn’t everyone one injury away from a problem? Except Nashville.

    Tampa Bay RHD
    Stralman
    Girardi
    Sustr
    Dotchin

    Washington RHD
    Nishanen
    Carlson

    Nashville RHD
    Subban
    Ellis
    Weber

    Vegas RHD
    Sbisa
    Engelland
    Hunt
    Whitecloud

  58. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: Okay. But how do you get, and affordone?

    Unless we draft first or second, I’m trading down in the first round. We keep hearing about Barrie for RNH. This is an overpayment. Why not Strome for Barrie? Maybe throw in a third. There’s plenty of options out there. Even Strome for McKeown.

    Of course my fantasy add is Karlsson. Won’t happen though.

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The problem is he names on the trade rumours mill aren’t likely that much of an upgrade on Benning –Faulk and Barrie. Yes Barrie has more offense but will he help GA which is the bigger problem? I’m not sure, and maybe better coaching fixes the breakouts. Really, shouldn’t any team be able to do basic play? Is it the players or coaching?

    We’ve been down the whale hunting route before. Benning willbe another year older and if paired with a capable partner should be ok.

    IF you could get a better two way D at a fair cost I’d do it, but it’s unlikely. Or find the next big thing but that is hard and even more risky.

    Apparently I see Benning a lot worse than you do. He should not be in the NHL. The only reason I would keep him is in the hope that he makes significant progress next year.

  60. who says:

    JimmyV1965: Unless we draft first or second, I’m trading down in the first round.We keep hearing about Barrie for RNH. This is an overpayment. Why not Strome for Barrie? Maybe throw in a third. There’s plenty of options out there. Even Strome for McKeown.

    Of course my fantasy add is Karlsson. Won’t happen though.

    Do you really think Colorado does Barry for Strome and a 3rd?
    Is McKeown ready to play top 4 minutes? Seems like that’s a bigger reach than Benning.

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think having 0-1 top 6 wingers for good chunk of the season cratered our season the most.There are worse d corpse in the league with teams still succeeding. I mean Vegas is surviving with Engelland

    As bad as our wingers are, I don’t see 5 x 5 scoring as out biggest issue. It’s defence and giving up goals.

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: I think you are paying Benning too much money in your model. I think he gets 1.2 million tops.
    Also why are you so high on Winnick? I don’t know much about him but you seem pretty specific on this player.

    I’m not stuck on Winnik but he’s one of those players good teams pick up like Moore and Cullen that are still good enough to help.

    He’s available and shouldn’t cost the moon, but I estimated a decent salary to see if cap worked.

    I’d also like a RD upgrade but who is available that really would move the dial, and at what cost? If I could get a strong two way D maybe but the two mentioned aren’t. Wait one year and cap will open up if needed.

    I don’t think Faulk or Barrie make the team much better and possibly worse. The D depth is not as fragile as C depth of experienced players IMO.

  63. rickithebear says:

    Woogie63: Can’t a healthy Sekera play RSD the way he did in the World Cup?

    Klefbom (Healthy)- Larsson
    Nurse- Sekera (Healthy)
    Russell-Benning

    Looks good to me

    Did you know that the average HH shot goes in 5 times more than an avg LD ( perimeter) sho
    Nurses 14.25 Hd/60 = he establishes a .899 save% avg for the goalie to perform around.
    Klefboms career 13.4 hd/60 = establishes a .903 save% avg for goalies to perform around

    Larson’s 6.95 HD/60 = establishes a .932 save % avg for goalies to perform around.
    Sekera,s 7.57 hd/60 = establishes a .929 save% avg for goalies to perform around.
    Russel is the best 0% chance corsi /ca dman in the game. Elite 0% corsi dmen
    are dependent on the HD quality of thier d partners. They allow for the possibility of 40 elite hd prs rather than 20 from the top 40 HD dmen.

    We have 3 dmen that are cup core standard.
    And
    2 dmen that cost us our playoffs this year,
    Period.

    DEFENCEMEN?
    Protecting HD area
    GOOD.
    Abondoning HD area to
    A. Chase offence
    B. Press perimeter
    NO PLAYOFFS BAD!

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: Do you really think Colorado does Barry for Strome and a 3rd?
    Is McKeown ready to play top 4 minutes? Seems like that’s a bigger reach than Benning.

    Yet we hear about RNH for Barrie all the time. This is just a big a reach. McKeown is +33 on an AHL team with one other dman who is +33. The next highest on the team is +11. I’ll be shocked if he’s not better than Benning.

  65. rickithebear says:

    RNH: back from injury
    7gm 3evg 1shg 2eva 1ppa +6

    We have not seen this productive an RNH
    Since his games under Nelson facing 2 Nd comp with eberle.

  66. rickithebear says:

    Darnell Nurse is the 3 rd worst HD dman in the game.
    Reilly is 5th worst.
    The 2 worse than Nurse
    Barrie
    Faulk

    Dr wants to prescribe medical marijuana.
    I did not want it.
    But they produce it with the needed medicinal properties with out the THC.

    You Faulk and Barrie fans should try this version of Pot.

  67. who says:

    JimmyV1965: Unless we draft first or second, I’m trading down in the first round.We keep hearing about Barrie for RNH. This is an overpayment. Why not Strome for Barrie? Maybe throw in a third. There’s plenty of options out there. Even Strome for McKeown.

    Of course my fantasy add is Karlsson. Won’t happen though.

    Do you really think Colorado does Barry for Strome and a 3rd?
    Is McKeown ready to play top 4 minutes? Seems like that’s a bigger reach than Benning.

    JimmyV1965: Apparently I see Benning a lot worse than you do.He should not be in the NHL. The only reason I would keep him is in the hope that he makes significant progress next year.

    I agree with you on Benning.
    I would listen to offers for him but would probably give him another year. I certainly wouldn’t give him away.
    I like his compete level and he has shown he can make a play at times.
    But he has also turned a lot of pucks over and can be manhandled physically at times. I just think his size and skating ability are going to limit him to a 3rd pairing guy.
    There’s a good chance that Bear passes him on the depth chart sometime next year.

  68. Wilde says:

    Really enjoyed the game today, fantastic watch.

    JimmyV1965,

    You see Benning the worst of anyone who posts here, I think.

    He’s at LEAST a good 6D.

  69. Wilde says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, I mainline your posts instead of hard drugs.

  70. Bling says:

    rickithebear:
    Darnell Nurse is the 3 rd worst HD dman in the game.
    Reilly is 5th worst.
    The 2 worse than Nurse
    Barrie
    Faulk

    Dr wants to prescribe medical marijuana.
    I did not want it.
    But they produce it with the needed medicinal properties with out the THC.

    You Faulk and Barrie fans should try this version of Pot.

    I agree with all of this and LOL’d.

  71. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    Really enjoyed the game today, fantastic watch.

    JimmyV1965,

    You see Benning the worst of anyone who posts here, I think.

    He’s at LEAST a good 6D.

    I actually don’t have an issue with Benning as the 6 or 7 dman. And I wouldn’t trade him. But right now he’s our second RHD. That simply can’t be the case to start the season. God forbid Larsson gets hurt.

  72. Bling says:

    Lucic played 10 minutes today. FINALLY.

    I think Todd’s deployment today was almost pitch perfect, though again I’d prefer to see more ice for JP (~10 minutes today, again lower than DC). No excuse to not turn him loose over this last 10 game stretch.

  73. Bling says:

    rickithebear: Did you know that the average HH shot goes in 5 times more than an avg LD ( perimeter) sho
    Nurses 14.25 Hd/60 = he establishes a.899 save% avg for the goalie to perform around.
    Klefboms career 13.4 hd/60 = establishes a .903 save% avg for goalies to perform around

    Larson’s 6.95 HD/60 = establishes a .932 save % avg for goalies to perform around.
    Sekera,s 7.57 hd/60 = establishes a .929 save% avg for goalies to perform around.
    Russel is the best 0% chance corsi /ca dman in the game. Elite 0% corsi dmen
    are dependent on the HD quality of thier d partners. They allow for the possibility of 40 elite hd prs rather than 20 from the top 40 HD dmen.

    We have 3 dmen that are cup core standard.
    And
    2 dmen that cost us our playoffs this year,
    Period.

    DEFENCEMEN?
    Protecting HD area
    GOOD.
    Abondoning HD area to
    A. Chase offence
    B. Press perimeter
    NO PLAYOFFS BAD!

    Why aren’t we talking about trading Nurse for that 2nd pair RHD?

    Would the Jets do Nurse for Trouba?

  74. Woogie63 says:

    rickithebear:
    Darnell Nurse is the 3 rd worst HD dman in the game.
    Reilly is 5th worst.
    The 2 worse than Nurse
    Barrie
    Faulk

    Dr wants to prescribe medical marijuana.
    I did not want it.
    But they produce it with the needed medicinal properties with out the THC.

    You Faulk and Barrie fans should try this version of Pot.

    Faulk 473 NHL GAMES
    Barrie 375 NHL GAMES
    Nurse 185 NHL GAMES

  75. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: I actually don’t have an issue with Benning as the 6 or 7 dman.

    Then we don’t disagree but

    JimmyV1965: Apparently I see Benning a lot worse than you do.He should not be in the NHL. The only reason I would keep him is in the hope that he makes significant progress next year.

  76. Pescador says:

    Wilde:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki, I mainline your posts instead of hard drugs.

    They boggle the mind in same way,
    complete with morning after regret

  77. Pescador says:

    Woogie63: Faulk 473 NHL GAMES
    Barrie 375 NHL GAMES
    Nurse 185 NHL GAMES

    Shame that Nurse has already started regressing.
    Might as well try & salvage a late round pick for him cause it’s over

  78. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Another coaching issue I’ve seen all season is appallingly bad line changes. They have given up so many odd man rushes from slow changes I can hardly believe it. They look like a team fresh out of preseason. So may players are coasting off. Are the shifts too long? Is conditioning poor?

    It is also the heart of the Russell reset. Waiting. Of course other team’s D are up by the blue line waiting not retreating and giving up yards.

    It’s not usual IMO and not NHL quality. Teams shouldn’t struggle with basics like this, players know how to do them or they wouldn’t have made it this far.

    I really don’t get how we keep seeing these things most years. Perhaps it’s 3 rookie coaches and then a guy used to vet teams.

    Not losing games to self inflicted wounds is the first step. The one I see happening is players not fighting. Great to not take stupid penalties, but they took them when it mattered and now don’t when it doesn’t and Connor needs protection. See Kassian and Lucic.

    Rudderless ship IMO. Players can only do so much directing team attitudes and play.

  79. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear,

    Hey just curious, where do you get your numbers?

    Do you have numbers for all Dmen in the league?

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: Then we don’t disagree but

    Meh. Maybe I should have said fringe NHLer. How’s that? You keep him because you hope he progresses. If he doesn’t, he’s out of the NHL.

  81. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965,

    What’s wrong with Benning, anyways? I think you can contend with him as 3RD. He had a fantastic 80% of last season, then a poor half to this one and now he’s come around.

    He’s been the better version of himself more often than not.

    Honestly, he’ll probably play in the NHL for a long time.

  82. Harpers Hair says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Looking ahead to the Lightning got me thinking about a moment in 97’s career.

    Stamkos on McDavid in September of 2015:

    “This guy is a special kid,” the Tampa Bay Lightning star told ESPN.com. “I think he’s better than me right now. I wouldn’t have a second thought on saying that.”

    https://www.tsn.ca/stamkos-mcdavid-better-than-me-1.357278

    One of the most exciting moments of that thrilling summer.

    Turned out to be true, but I remember a lot of people spinning this in vain attempts to temper expectations.

    So, is McDavid the “next one” or is it MacKinnon.?

    Have to remember that MacKinnon is only 22.

  83. flyfish1168 says:

    Just watched the Oiler game from this afternoon. I can’t see why we would break up RNH and McDavid pairing. No way would I trade RNH for hoffman or barrie straight up. If anything I might reward JJ a little time on that line for his game today.

  84. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair,

    See what McKinnon did without Rantanen should answer the question for you.

    Now back to your cave troll!!

  85. Wilde says:

    flyfish1168,

    Khaira should just be stapled to Strome on the third line, they’re money there.

    None of the important developing players should be on the McLellan fourth unit.

    Nuge – McDavid – Rattie

    Slepyshev – Drai – Puljujarvi

    Lucic – Khaira – Strome

    Caggiula – Malone – Kassian

  86. Bank Shot says:

    Who did big Sikhsy fistigate?

  87. leadfarmer says:

    Nice of Luongo to give us the game. Those were three soft goals he gave up to Talbots one very soft goal

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: And there’s the problem.Oilers cant afford another 5 million dollar dman without moving one out.
    So do you want to trade Klefbom or Nurse. Cause those are your options this summer.

    I try and get creative with Sekera/Russell I don;t think you can move Lucic without taking back a bad contract.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: I think so.
    But apparently if you don’t shoot right you are incapable of playing RD.

    Don’t put words in my mouth.

    It gives the impression that you aren’t smart and I don’t think that’s the case.

    Sekera playing RH in 2016/18 with Russell wasn’t a good pairing. They PDO’d it death.

    Oilers can’t afford that gamble again imo.

  90. flyfish1168 says:

    Wilde:
    flyfish1168,

    Khaira should just be stapled to Strome on the third line, they’re money there.

    None of the important developing players should be on the McLellan fourth unit.

    Nuge – McDavid – Rattie

    Slepyshev – Drai – Puljujarvi

    Lucic – Khaira – Strome

    Caggiula – Malone – Kassian

    If you think like that you can miss the big picture. I believe in working lines in pairs on a team. JJ can be our Patty Maroon. It’s nice to have a big body with RNH and CMD occasionally. It doesn’t hurt to keep other teams honest and off balance with different looks on the top line. This can also help JJ develop his offensive game. It would be a treat for JJ for being a good soldier. It is important to keep an open mind for line combos. During a long season, linemate does get stale and change can be good. Line combos are never constant

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think having 0-1 top 6 wingers for good chunk of the season cratered our season the most.There are worse d corpse in the league with teams still succeeding. I mean Vegas is surviving with Engelland

    Yeah, I think we see them crater in the playoffs, its starting now.

    Engellend is being carried by Theodore imo.

    If Theodore got hurt (say like Klef/Larsson/Sekera) their second pair would have gone “poof”

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Okay. But how do you get, and affordone?

    I think the following Dmen are capable of playing 2RD and would cost less than RNH/Klefbom:

    Tanev (might cost 2018 1st-ish)
    Gudas
    Demers
    Pysyk
    Petrovic (maybe, he might be a bit slow)

    Have to move money out, but I think that it can be done.

  93. flyfish1168 says:

    Does anyone know why Kailer not playing this weekend?

  94. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think the following Dmen are capable of playing 2RD and would cost less than RNH/Klefbom:

    Tanev (might cost 2018 1st-ish)
    Gudas
    Demers
    Pysyk
    Petrovic (maybe, he might be a bit slow)

    Have to move money out, but I think that it can be done.

    I have always liked Pysyk when he played for the Oil Kings. Never understood why they targetted Reinhardt instead.

  95. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, I think we see them crater in the playoffs, its starting now.

    Engellend is being carried by Theodore imo.

    If Theodore got hurt (say like Klef/Larsson/Sekera) their second pair would have gone “poof”

    They can crater after they beat the Phlegms tomorrow

  96. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think this team just needs to realize that there are so many holes and so little depth that overpaying for a right handed patch job should not be in the cards.

  97. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Don’t put words in my mouth.

    It gives the impression that you aren’t smart and I don’t think that’s the case.

    Sekera playing RH in 2016/18 with Russell wasn’t a good pairing.They PDO’d it death.

    Oilers can’t afford that gamble again imo.

    Actually, I wasn’t referring to you when I wrote this. Although I guess you are a believer in the lefty righty thing.
    If my memory is correct I believe the numbers show that there is a 6 % improvement when a dman plays on his strong side.
    My question is how much of a premium should a team be willing to pay in salary and acquisition cost to get that 2RD. Should we pay a 10% premium? 20 %? More?
    Cause it strikes me that the shortage of RD makes them a somewhat overvalued commodity.
    In fact maybe that’s the reason it took Hall to acquire Larsson. A lot of people here saw that as a huge overpay. Are we willing to do that again?

  98. Confused says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    But can you get one for an acceptable price? Everyone agrees PC needs to stop the talent bleed.

    Assuming Trouba resigns Myers for Russell plus 2019 R3?

    Peg short on the left and short-term cap dump

  99. Confused says:

    Logan Day!

    Let’s hope for miracles after his first goal.

    Currently 2-2

  100. VOR says:

    frjohnk:
    rickithebear,

    Hey just curious, where do you get your numbers?

    Do you have numbers for all Dmen in the league?

    I want to know as well since Natural Stat Trick has Nurse’s HDCA/60 way lower than Ricki, right at 11/60. In fact he is only 323 worst in the NHL, 119th worst among defensemen.

    Not to mention that I would like to point out that Nurse is on the ice for more high danger chances for than high danger chances against (270-240). By %HDCF there are 576 worse players in the NHL 221 of them defencemen. In other words more good things happen than bad when Nurse is on the ice.

    I’d also like a detailed explanation of how he generates this base sv% he keeps talking about and why on earth he thinks it works this way. That is, I want him to prove the dozens of posts and papers proving defensemen don’t affect goalie save percentage are wrong. As a long time goalie I could then blame my bad years of sv% on my defensemen. They just didn’t give me a high enough base save percentage to work with. Well 100% probably wouldn’t have been enough some years.

    But he does have a valid point about Barrie and Reilly and that shows up in the Natural Stat Trick database. It is possible that just before he looked up Nurse’s numbers on NST he inhaled some of the good stuff, the stuff that still has all its THC. He just read 11 as 14. And 14 makes you pretty terrible and 11 makes you adequate.

  101. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think the following Dmen are capable of playing 2RD and would cost less than RNH/Klefbom:

    Tanev (might cost 2018 1st-ish)
    Gudas
    Demers
    Pysyk
    Petrovic (maybe, he might be a bit slow)

    Have to move money out, but I think that it can be done.

    I think that’s a solid group of 2RD. Not really sure about Petrovic or Pysyk. I do know that I’m not willing to give up our top 10 pick for any of these guys. For the reasons I’ve stated earlier.
    That’s the conundrum here. Any proven 2RD is gonna cost more than we can afford. Either in acquisition cost or in salary. Or both.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Confused:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    But can you get one for an acceptable price? Everyone agrees PC needs to stop the talent bleed.

    Assuming Trouba resigns Myers for Russell plus 2019 R3?

    Peg short on the left and short-term cap dump

    I’m not sold on Myers. The game is getting faster and he’s a giant injury riddled guy. Sounds like trouble. Huge guys aren’t nimble, and rely on stick tactics to cope.

    I think at some point legal concerns (payouts) will stop the rules being fluid depending on team and season point even more than now. I don’t think Bettman or many owners gives a hoot about player safety, it’s all about money, and hack artists or ruffians are cheap and can make poorly run teams more competitive. It’s a no brainer for bad teams.

    Hmmm, see Oilers – Lucic, Kassian, Khaira, Hendricks, Gryba, etc etc. And those are the guys you could call NHL players. Well some are cheap.

    Maybe Woodguy knows better with his machine about Mr. Myers. I’d go for Trouba the malcontent from the Jets.

  103. Confused says:

    Condors score!

  104. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m not sold on Myers. The game is getting faster and he’s a giant injury riddled guy. Sounds like trouble. Huge guys aren’t nimble, and rely on stick tactics to cope.

    I think at some point legal concerns (payouts) will stop the rules being fluid depending on team and season point even more than now. I don’t think Bettman or many owners gives a hoot about player safety, it’s all about money, and hack artists or ruffians are cheap and can make poorly run teams more competitive. It’s a no brainer for bad teams.

    Hmmm, see Oilers – Lucic, Kassian, Khaira, Hendricks, Gryba, etc etc. And those are the guys you could call NHL players. Well some are cheap.

    Maybe Woodguy knows better with his machine about Mr. Myers. I’d go for Trouba the malcontent from the Jets.

    Injury history and salary would be the concerns with Myers.
    There is nothing wrong with his foot speed or agility. The man can skate and handle the puck.
    I think you’re just stereotyping him as a big, slow guy.

  105. Confused says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Love Trouba.

    But why would he come to Edmonton?

    And Winnie will want. …..

  106. Bling says:

    Tierny has an interesting chart up that graphs zone entries allowed versus control zone exits.

    Larsson and Benning show well (good at both zone entries and controlled exits), while Nurse and Klefbom are weak at allowing zone entries, but slightly better than Larsson and Benning at controlled exits.

    Benning is a #4 RHD based on this, IMO. I wouldn’t mind seeing Bear on the third pairing next year with Sekera as his partner. Russell #7.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/Exitsvsentrydefense–asofMarch17th/Dashboard1?publish=yes

  107. Confused says:

    who,

    Only getting Myers for one year.

  108. Confused says:

    Bling,

    Got to like any graph where Gryba is unique

  109. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Harpers Hair,

    See what McKinnon did without Rantanen should answer the question for you.

    Now back to your cave troll!!

    So you’re suggesting Mackinnon.is a product of a 10th overall pick and MCDavid doesn’t benefit from a 3rd overall pick?

    Occam’s Razor would likely suggest that is nonsense.

  110. Confused says:

    Condors win, why is OP not updating? Or Andy?

  111. who says:

    Confused:
    who,

    Only getting Myers for one year.

    Yep
    That would be a problem. Plus we can’t afford his salary.

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: Injury history and salary would be the concerns with Myers.
    There is nothing wrong with his foot speed or agility. The man can skate and handle the puck.
    I think you’re just stereotyping him as a big, slow guy.

    Perhaps but I believe he is playing thirds. I wonder why? Byf is a one way player IMO.

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Confused:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Love Trouba.

    But why would he come to Edmonton?

    And Winnie will want.…..

    I don’t think he’d want to and we can’t afford him. Unless they run into cap issues. I thought they were a ‘internal budget team’ but looking at Capfriendly I am not seeing that they are or will get into a cap crunch they can’t manage.

    They will lose talent at some point soon – Laine is going to cost 10M season after next – the cap is the great equalizer. My hope was cap pressure would shake Trouba loose. Now I’m not sure.

  114. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Perhaps but I believe he is playing thirds. I wonder why? Byf is a one way player IMO.

    Winnipeg has 3 really good RD.
    But I doubt they trade any of them this summer. They are a cup contender right now and they don’t really need anything.

  115. Woogie63 says:

    Bling:
    Tierny has an interesting chart up that graphs zone entries allowed versus control zone exits.

    Larsson and Benning show well (good at both zone entries and controlled exits), while Nurse and Klefbom are weak at allowing zone entries, but slightly better than Larsson and Benning at controlled exits.

    Benning is a #4 RHD based on this, IMO. I wouldn’t mind seeing Bear on the third pairing next year with Sekera as his partner. Russell #7.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/Exitsvsentrydefense–asofMarch17th/Dashboard1?publish=yes

    Julius Honda looks pretty good on this chart

  116. frjohnk says:

    VOR: I want to know as well since Natural Stat Trick has Nurse’s HDCA/60 way lower than Ricki, right at 11/60. In fact he is only 323 worst in the NHL, 119th worst among defensemen.

    Not to mention that I would like to point out that Nurse is on the ice for more high danger chances for than high danger chances against (270-240). By %HDCF there are 576 worse players in the NHL 221 of them defencemen. In other words more good things happen than bad when Nurse is on the ice.

    I’d also like a detailed explanation of how he generates this base sv% he keeps talking about and why on earth he thinks it works this way. That is, I want him to prove the dozens of posts and papers proving defensemen don’t affect goalie save percentage are wrong. As a long time goalie I could then blame my bad years of sv% on my defensemen. They just didn’t give me a high enough base save percentage to work with. Well 100% probably wouldn’t have been enough some years.

    But he does have a valid point about Barrie and Reilly and that shows up in the Natural Stat Trick database. It is possible that just before he looked up Nurse’s numbers on NST he inhaled some of the good stuff, the stuff that still has all its THC. He just read 11 as 14. And 14 makes you pretty terrible and 11 makes you adequate.

    Yeah. The numbers don’t add up.

    I don’t know what it is but maybe Ricki is adding shots from the medium danger area to the high danger area together and counting them as “high danger” for Nurse and Klefbom but then something is goofy for Russell and Larsson.

    I ran numbers from war on ice a few years ago and even the “Dallas Eakins swarm, leave the slot open defensive scheme” allowed around 10 shots from the high danger area per 60. So if Nurse and Klefbom are allowing way more shots from the slot than that defense, I’d love to see the data.

    If I remember correctly league average shot locations per 60 looked something like this
    8 high danger (slot)
    8 medium danger(not the slot, but not perimeter)
    12 low danger (perimeter)

    I have run the numbers from corisaca and they are basically the same numbers that war on ice had when looking at shot locations, so there are definitely questions about Rickis numbers that he needs to clear up.

  117. Pescador says:

    Woogie63,

    Honk if you like Julius

  118. Pescador says:

    frjohnk: Yeah. The numbers don’t add up.

    I don’t know what it is but maybe Ricki is adding shots from the medium danger area to the high danger area together and counting them as “high danger” for Nurse and Klefbom but then something is goofy for Russell and Larsson.

    I ran numbers from war on ice a few years ago and even the “Dallas Eakins swarm, leave the slot open defensive scheme” allowed around 10 shots from the high danger area per 60. So if Nurse and Klefbom are allowingway more shots from the slot than that defense, I’d love to see the data.

    If I remember correctly league average shot locations per 60 looked something like this
    8 high danger (slot)
    8 medium danger(not the slot, but not perimeter)
    12 low danger (perimeter)

    I have run the numbers from corisaca and they are basically the same numbers that war on ice had when looking at shot locations, so there are definitely questions about Rickis numbers that he needs to clear up.

    Impossible,
    Every time someone questions Ricki about where he gets his data he changes the subject.

  119. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    JimmyV1965,

    What’s wrong with Benning, anyways? I think you can contend with him as 3RD. He had a fantastic 80% of last season, then a poor half to this one and now he’s come around.

    He’s been the better version of himself more often than not.

    Honestly, he’ll probably play in the NHL for a long time.

    I think Benning is awful against the forecheck. He panics under pressure and throws away the puck. I think his transition game out of the dzone is brutal. He can’t pass it out or skate it out. He’s okay in the offensive zone, but nothing special. My only concession. He looks to be playing better since the crosscheck from Kane. But that’s what? Three games.

  120. Gayfish says:

    Pescador: Impossible,
    Every time someone questions Ricki about where he gets his data he changes the subject.

    He has implied nhl connections. Not sure if that’s true (it’s so ridiculous it might be true). Either way, I’m fairly confident Ricki’s numbers are his own, with a Craig Button level of shock added to them.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Actually, I wasn’t referring to you when I wrote this. Although I guess you are a believer in the lefty righty thing.
    If my memory is correct I believe the numbers show that there is a 6 % improvement when a dman plays on his strong side.
    My question is how much of a premium should a team be willing to pay in salary and acquisition cost to get that 2RD.Should we pay a 10% premium? 20 %?More?
    Cause it strikes me that the shortage of RD makes them a somewhat overvalued commodity.
    In fact maybe that’s the reason it took Hall to acquire Larsson. A lot of people here saw that as a huge overpay. Are we willing to do that again?

    Ah, read it as it was directed to me because it was right after you responded to my RH Dman comment.

    There is 6% CF improvement as a group.

    Individuals can vary.

    I don’t see paying RNH for Barrie as an overpay. *maybe* not Faulk, and of course pay less for the others I’ve listed.

    Since Larsson is on the roster, Benning is on the roster and Bear looks to be a year away from being a NHLer there is not need to “overpay” for the right guy.

    Try to find the right guy at your price and if you can’t, don’t do it.

    There will never be justification of Hall for Larsson regardless of how much EDM needed a RHD and how good Larsson is because they just aren’t in the same class of NHLer.

  122. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Perhaps but I believe he is playing thirds. I wonder why? Byf is a one way player IMO.

    Winnipeg has 3 really good RD.
    But I doubt they trade any of them this summer. They are a cup contender right now and they don’t really need anything.

    Woodguy v2.0: Ah, read it as it was directed to me because it was right after you responded to my RH Dman comment.

    There is 6% CF improvement as a group.

    Individuals can vary.

    I don’t see paying RNH for Barrie as an overpay.*maybe* not Faulk, and of course pay less for the others I’ve listed.

    Since Larsson is on the roster, Benning is on the roster and Bear looks to be a year away from being a NHLer there is not need to “overpay” for the right guy.

    Try to find the right guy at your price and if you can’t, don’t do it.

    There will never be justification of Hall for Larsson regardless of how much EDM needed a RHD and how good Larsson is because they just aren’t in the same class of NHLer.

    I get what you’re saying and Barrie would improve our defense.
    If you trade Nuge for him you don’t have a cap issue. But doesn’t it almost force you to trade Klefbom or Nurse for a forward?
    Trading Nuge for a dman puts this team further from LTs balance photo. IMO

  123. Professor Q says:

    who: Winnipeg has 3 really good RD.
    But I doubt they trade any of them this summer. They are a cup contender right now and they don’t really need anything.

    I get what you’re saying and Barrie would improve our defense.
    If you trade Nuge for him you don’t have a cap issue. But doesn’t it almost force you to trade Klefbom or Nurse for a forward?
    Trading Nuge for a dman puts this team further from LTs balance photo. IMO

    And around. We. Go.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Winnipeg has 3 really good RD.
    But I doubt they trade any of them this summer. They are a cup contender right now and they don’t really need anything.

    I get what you’re saying and Barrie would improve our defense.
    If you trade Nuge for him you don’t have a cap issue. But doesn’t it almost force you to trade Klefbom or Nurse for a forward?
    Trading Nuge for a dman puts this team further from LTs balance photo. IMO

    I don’t trade Klef or Nurse for a F.

    I preferably don’t trade RNH for a RHD either, but if I have to make one trade, that’s probably it

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