Drinking Muddy Water

The Edmonton Oilers didn’t mark their man worth a tinker’s damn last night, from sunup to sundown. Given a 3-0 lead despite getting hammered in possession, they collectively said screw that noise and began drinking muddy water by the bucket. Good lord sometimes you wonder if this crew has repeatable skills. This kind of game is beyond galling, it has to be fixed. I understand Oscar is gone for the year, but the man coverage was poor and at times I think the Oilers shifted to “man on the street” coverage. You watch that game and tell me: What on earth were they trying to do?

THE ATHLETIC!

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I’M A MAN, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • March 2016: 7-7-0, goal differential -2 (14 points)
  • March 2017: 10-2-1, goal differential +21 (21 points)
  • March 2018: 7-5-2, goal differential +3 (16 points)

Despite last night’s game, it has been a good month. If the Oilers ran an 82-game season in the way they’ve performed in March, their record would be (about) 41-29-12, 94 points. That’s in the range of playoffs. Not that it matters, but the hockey you’ve been watching featured enough success to project as a playoff pace. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen it, wanted to remind you.

AFTER 77, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 30-40-7, goal differential -45 (67 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 43-25-9, goal differential +39 (95 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 34-37-6, goal differential -29 (74 points)

Oilers can erase the memory of last night’s game with a win on the coast tomorrow night, and a Saturday night chaser of two points in Calgary would put the team dangerously close to 80 points on the year. Of course, they could fall into a funk and lose out through season’s end, there’s no way to predict this team.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARCH

  • At home to: Nashville, NY Rangers, Arizona, NY Islanders, Minnesota (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 3-2-0)
  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: San Jose (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: Florida, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Ottawa (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, Columbus (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: Vancouver, Calgary (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-7-3, 15 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Larsson were 9-11 in 16:28, 0-1 GF. Were 3-9 in SCF and 1-3 in HDSC, it was that kind of night. Were 5-8 against Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson in seven minutes, that line was filthy all night long. Holy hell. Dubois was playing LW last I paid attention but he is the pivot on this line and was splendid. Larsson wasn’t tight against Panarin on the second goal. Nurse has been chasing for weeks, needs to remember his transporter abilities and do that more often.
  • Russell-Bear were 13-15 in 12:22, but 0-3 GF. Were 7-13 against Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson, somehow got loose against the second pairing for 6:33. Bear made some good outlet passes but was not good in coverage. Russell was a day late too often and was very poor in outlet passing.
  • Sekera-Benning were 10-11 in 10:43, 0-2 GF. Went 6-11 in 5:00 against Jenner-Wennberg-Vanek, who was absolutely a pain in the ass all night long. Sekera doesn’t hear footsteps and doesn’t see oncoming trains and he can’t win a battle at all. Genuinely concerned. Benning was active but not terribly productive.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 13 of 18, .722. Laurent Brossoit stopped seven of nine (woo hoo) .778.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Slepyshev-Khaira-Kassian went 7-6 (Kassian in 8:43) and 3-6 (Slepyshev in 6:07) with Drake Caggiula (4-0 in 2:33) replacing Pete Best. Each of the regular fourth-line men did some good things, but nothing rhymed. Khaira pushed, I’d like to see him higher in the lineup, with more skill. Went 4-4 against Milano-Dubinsky-Bjorkstrand, no one scoring on anyone’s watch. I think you take that from your No. 4 line.
  • Caggiula-Draisaitl-Aberg were 5-7 in 5:58, 0-2 GF. Line was 4-6 in six minutes (0-1) against Jenner-Wennberg-Vanek, I don’t think either winger for Edmonton was strong on the night. Lucic joined Leon for five minutes, going 6-4, 2-1 in scoring chances. Leon needs help, people. Aberg needs to impact the game way more than he did last night if he’s to grab an NHL job in Edmonton.
  • Lucic-Strome-Puljujarvi executed at their usual levels, going 7-6 in six minutes, 0-0 GF. Lost the scoring chance battle 1-2, and Strome had a GA when Caggiula-Aberg were out there with him, but the original trio was solid. I noticed some negative online last night about JP, not sure what people saw. For me, Puljujarvi would be one of the forwards I’d rate as being good (only McDavid was great on the night, in my opinion).
  • Nuge-McDavid-Rattie had five points and all kinds of momentum but the entire bridge collapsed. The line had a terrible night in possession, going 11-18, 1-4 GF in 12:55. Lordy. Went 9-13, 1-1 against the Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson line, the Oilers didn’t have an answer for them when the game was being won. Rattie can’t disappear as he did last night, that’s the one thing he cannot do while keeping the 1R job. Nuge got in some bad luck on the first GA, but this line wasn’t sharp defensively all night long.

GOD’S FLASHLIGHT, LAST 10 GAMES (5X5 60 SCORING)

  1. Connor McDavid 5.57
  2. Ty Rattie 3.65
  3. Nuge 3.42
  4. Pontus Aberg 3.12
  5. Leon Draisaitl 2.30
  6. Drake Caggiula 1.56
  7. Jujhar Khaira 1.21
  8. Zack Kassian 1.17
  9. Ryan Strome 1.11
  10. Jesse Puljujarvi 1.07
  11. Anton Slepyshev 0.67
  12. Milan Lucic 0.51

Via Natural Stat Trick

McDavid is blowing the doors off NHL teams, Nuge and Rattie offering a strong rhythm section and keeping their sticks on the ice. Leon is posting stronger numbers than Nuge would be delivering (I believe this to be true) on a second line with Aberg and Caggiula, but you’d like him to have stronger linemates. I enjoyed the shuffle last night that saw JP and Lucic move up with LD, would like to see the Finn stapled there for the rest of the season.

CORSI FOR 5X5, LAST 10 GAMES (DEFENSE)

  1. Andrej Sekera 46.67
  2. Matt Benning 46.67
  3. Kris Russell 45.06
  4. Adam Larsson 44.77
  5. Ethan Bear 43.79
  6. Darnell Nurse 40.82

Via NaturalStatTrick

Nurse has struggled in the last 10, Oilers don’t have enough actual NHL defensemen (Oscar is one) and are running a flat out rookie every night. Andrej Sekera is playing third pair and isn’t close to 50 percent in possession. Would they buy him out? I can’t see it but the Edmonton Oilers need to be much better in the fall at the position.

His NHLE from this past season is 82gp, 11-17-28, that’s just shy of what we might expect from a top flight offensive forward. I believe he’ll settle in as a two-way winger in pro and have also believed he’ll get a full season in the AHL before moving up. We should keep in mind two things: The Oilers need value contracts at the NHL level, and Benson is highly regarded by the organization. Could we see him in Edmonton by this time next year?

Usually a player breaks out around the time one notices a slump but it’s something to watch. Yamamoto is 2gp, 0-1-1 so if he picks up a couple of points in the next game all will be well. A lot of his value comes in the offense so it’s pretty easy to read how he’s going. Yamamoto’s NHLE (82gp, 12-26-38) puts him on a collision course for opening night in the NHL. Whenever I write that, someone posts “he should go back to junior” but the young man has played  four seasons at that level and turns 20 in September. Ideally, the Oilers have enough quality, balance and depth to send Yamamoto to Bakersfield but history informs us that Yamamoto is a strong candidate for opening night.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A rollicking show beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. I don’t know why, but Bruce is always scheduled after an ass-kicking. He’ll use his wonderful vocabulary to describe the scene and we’ll look forward to April.
  • Meghan Montemurro from the Athletic. We’ll chat Phillies, who may actually be phormidable some nights this year.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Who is moving up? Down? We’ll have a lash at the players who might be available around Edmonton’s pick in the first round.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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189 Responses to "Drinking Muddy Water"

  1. who says:

    Would love to see Kharia on Drais left wing for the next 5 games. He seems like one of the few Oiler forwards who has any poise with the puck.
    Sure he commits the odd turnover, but he can also make a play, in all zones. How many Oiler forwards, other than the big three, can we say that about?

  2. J-Bo says:

    Nuge – McD – Vanek
    Lucic – Drai – JP
    Khaira – Strome – Kassian

    Is this good enough for the top 9 next year? Hope Lucic rebounds big and JP finds his way on that line. Bring Vanek in for even more scoring. Move Khaira up because he and Strome are better together. Move Kassian up because he has speed and too big of a contract for the 4th line. Then find a cheap 4th line centre and use the 4th line like Todd likes too.

    Also LT, I have been wondering how to reconcile two of your narratives: 1. The need to slow play the summer and 2. Speed things up and get off the 5 year plan.

    I don’t think I know what you mean by the Oilers getting off the five year plan because it seems to intimate to me that they should have a big summer. Clarification please.

  3. AshetonisGod says:

    Dangerously close to 80 points because . . . complacency sets in? Ownership sees no reason to change? GM sees little reason to look for new HC?

    With respect to Nurse, he’s been struggling awhile. One thing I fear is that they give him a Klefbom-like deal when it’s not clear that Nurse’s ceiling will ever be as high as what Klef delivered last year. Bridge deal would be better IMO.

    Bill James once said most a player’s value was in being average. If the Oilers could just put together an average team, and then throw Connor and Leon on top of that, how far could they go?

  4. Confused says:

    who,

    JJ Leon JP

    Let’s see some cycle!

  5. who says:

    J-Bo:
    Nuge – McD – Vanek
    Lucic – Drai – JP
    Khaira – Strome – Kassian

    Is this good enough for the top 9 next year? Hope Lucic rebounds big and JP finds his way on that line. Bring Vanek in for even more scoring. Move Khaira up because he and Strome are better together. Move Kassian up because he has speed and too big of a contract for the 4th line. Then find a cheap 4th line centre and use the 4th line like Todd likes too.

    Also LT, I have been wondering how to reconcile two of your narratives: 1. The need to slow play the summer and 2. Speed things up and get off the 5 year plan.

    I don’t think I know what you mean by the Oilers getting off the five year plan because it seems to intimate to me that they should have a big summer. Clarification please.

    No I don’t think its good enough.
    Counting on Lucic to rebound seems like wishful thinking at this point. I’m not sure he can even hold a spot on the third line given his current performance.
    What an awful signing. Between this and the Reinhart trade I’m amazed everyone just assumes Chia will be back.

  6. New Improved Darkness says:

    After the sell-off, when you’re down to six band-members (roughly speaking Talbot, Larson, Nurse, Drai, Nuge, McDavid) surrounded by a motley crew of damaged stalwarts, tarnished hopefuls, and assorted sashimi kissing goodbye to their unblemished, pearly pink complexions (“careful, the short-lived beverage you are about to swim in is extremely hot”) stinkers are going to happen.

    It only takes a game where the core show up as lousy, mediocre × 3, average, and barely transcendent and the team will barely belong on the ice.

    Clearly the problem is revealed by that last clause.

    Listen up, Connor: barely transcendent is not enough.

    Also, that communal cup of scalding coffee quickly grows one mean non-playoff aroma. This might well be the origin of playoff beard symbolism. Hard to say.

  7. who says:

    Confused:
    who,

    JJ Leon JP

    Let’s see some cycle!

    Yeah I don’t even care about JP. He is as good an option as anyone else we have though. I think he gets in the top 6 soon, just not sure he’s ready right now.

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    I agree I would like to see JJ higher up in the batting order. I would like to see the line off JJ, Leon and JP . Just to see the big horses cycle the puck down low and see if any offence happens.

  9. godot10 says:

    It hasn’t even been a calendar year yet since Sekera’s injury. One has to see what he looks like next year before writing him off.

  10. J-Bo says:

    who: No I don’t think its good enough.
    Counting on Lucic to rebound seems like wishful thinking at this point. I’m not sure he can even hold a spot on the third line given his current performance.
    What an awful signing. Between this and the Reinhart trade I’m amazed everyone just assumes Chia will be back.

    Yeah… It’s ugly. I think they can afford one signing up front and Lucic clearly isn’t going anywhere. Is this better or worse?

    Nuge – McD – Yamamoto
    Vanek – Drai – JP
    Lucic – Strome – Kassian
    Caggiula – Khaira – Pak/Slep

  11. godot10 says:

    flyfish1168:
    I agree I would like to see JJ higher up in the batting order. I would like to see the line off JJ, Leon and JP . Just to see the big horses cycle the puck down low and see if any offence happens.

    It might take thee years to see it, like the three years it took to see Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid.

    This coach will try all the combinations that have no chance of working first. It cost them a lot of players, and will probably cost them a bunch more.

    Against good teams or good lines/D-pairings, Rattie is not remotely good enough He can finish, but against good teams and tough matchups, the winger actually has to be able to contribute a little bit.

    He may be good enough for a season though to get to the point where Yamamoto is ready. Rattie and an aging vet on a one year deal as cover till Yamamoto is ready.

    Too bad Pitlick was lost. Pitlick would have been a good option on the right side with McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins, particularly against certain matchups where they have to cycle/forecheck more.

  12. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I think the crticicism of yesterday game insolation is fair, but consider the D:

    Sek: Former turd polisher, turdish right now…
    Larsson – Seems to be coming along, but not at last year’s level
    Benning – Solid 3 RHD
    Nurse – OK 2 LHD
    Bear – Getting reps: not an established NHL D
    Russel – a 4/5 D

    – So Nurse playing as a top-4 D, and 5 D who are playing at 5/6/7 or AHL call-up level

    – Goalie didn’t bail them up, or steal anything either

    – Since March 1 our G has still been below average, 19th with a .920 5×5 average

    – Our PP since March 1 is 20%, and a PK at 88%: both fine

    – Team has played better, PDO not out of whack at 1004, but with the current D, and at best mediocre G, I’m not sure what else to do, except score lots of goals to win

    – You really need the mediocre Talbot of recent games, and a guy who is going to steal his job. Talbot isn’t being Dubnykied out of here: three years he’s a non-elite mediocre starter: don’t get fooled by team improvement next year, and signing him huge…

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I understand Oscar is gone for the year, but the man coverage was poor and at times I think the Oilers shifted to “man on the street” coverage

    That McLellan has them playing man coverage is a big part of this.

    Stauffer was banging that drum for a while too. He likes to say “do you know why the NBA banned zone defence? Because it works”

    EDM is one of the few teams playing man in their own zone.

    They don’t have the players to do it imo.

    Need smart vets with very good edge work who know exactly when to switch off and when to follow.

    Last year full health and 2-4’s GF% outstripping the CF% by +20% due to a PDO heater hid how poorly the system works, especially on a team full of young men.

    The coach who refers to the team he’s coached for 3 years as “the team in orange” rather than “us” and “we” owns this.

    Fire Capilano Mall.

  14. Confused says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Spot on!

    This is even what Ricki keeps trying to say.

    Why are we playing man when good teams play zone!

    Good news, easy fix, just one person

  15. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I understand Oscar is gone for the year, but the man coverage was poor and at times I think the Oilers shifted to “man on the street” coverage

    That McLellan has them playing man coverage is a big part of this.

    Stauffer was banging that drum for a while too.He likes to say “do you know why the NBA banned zone defence? Because it works”

    EDM is one of the few teams playing man in their own zone.

    They don’t have the players to do it imo.

    Need smart vets with very good edge work who know exactly when to switch off and when to follow.

    Last year full health and 2-4’s GF% outstripping the CF% by +20% due to a PDO heater hid how poorly the system works, especially on a team full of young men.

    The coach who refers to the team he’s coached for 3 years as “the team in orange” rather than “us” and “we” owns this.

    Fire Capilano Mall.

    Yeah it was painfully obvious last night. This team is lost in a man to man defense. Too many young players. Some of the vets can do it but all it takes is one guy to lose his check and the whole thing turns into a shit show.
    If they are going to make a coaching and/or systems change next year would be the time to do it. They are not winning a cup next year anyways and it takes time to get comfortable with change.

  16. flea says:

    It’s gotta be tough for teams like the Oilers who see the end coming. Tough to keep up the hard work these guys need to do daily to stay competitive. I’m not surprised to see see them have a bit of a let down game here. There might be more coming.

    The team is playing for Connor right now, they want him to win the Art Ross (looks like he will). As soon as the McPoints box got checked last night the team started to slow down.

    I don’t mind what Maclellan has done here in the last 2 months, he’s kept the team engaged. Look down south for a team that gave up on their coach and likely will cost him his job (it should). But having the Art Ross winning player on your team should essentially guarantee a playoff spot. I don’t know where to look but I’d be curious to see a list on non playoff Art Ross winners.

    I think McDavid winning the Art Ross puts TMac in jeopardy, or at least it should.

  17. McSorley33 says:

    Sekera turns 32 this summer…..if you are not worried about him then you are not paying attention.

    Nobody is saying to get rid of him.

    But he is playing the 3rd pairing and not doing very well.

    The issue is how logical is it too assume we are going to see a 32 year old resume
    his playing ability post surgery.

    With that I repeat our RHD depth chart:

    Larsson
    Benning
    Bear

    There is no above average RHD prospect in our system.( I like Bear just not sure I see
    him and his agility as a 1RHD – not counting him out for sure )

    Nurse and Klef will be our top 2 LHD for over half a decade….Sekera to play out the string
    maybe as 3rd pairing LHD. (To be replaced by Caleb Jones in a few years as 3LHD)

    The right side D is not cutting it at the pros or in our system.. We need a 5 tool RHD .

    We have wingers of some note coming. Yamamoto, Benson, Safin, Maksmimov.

  18. jtblack says:

    Ryan Strome. 55% CF … over career. Wish he could attach slightly better Statistical results to his Corsi.

    I quit watching afterit was 3-3. Felt like one of those nights. Sloppy Sloppy Sloppy.

    Forget everything about Kris Russell. I am not discussing value. Here are some Corsi Facts for his career.
    CBJ – 53%
    CGY- 43%
    EDM – 47%

    When Peter decided to sign him he guranteed that for 15 mins a night (5×5) the puck would be in Edm’s end more than the other teams.

    Winning is a razors edge in the NHL. when you make enough “bets” against the Statistical data, you start to have trouble winning.

    Everyone knew this D was not good enough coming into this season.

    What is going to change for next year? Better health maybe BUT that is not guranteed and is that enough for this group anyway? DOUBT IT

  19. who says:

    J-Bo: Yeah… It’s ugly. I think they can afford one signing up front and Lucic clearly isn’t going anywhere. Is this better or worse?

    Nuge – McD – Yamamoto
    Vanek – Drai – JP
    Lucic – Strome – Kassian
    Caggiula – Khaira – Pak/Slep

    I think you are counting on too much from 2 young right wingers with this lineup.
    I would try to add 1 winger over the summer. Vanek is a good example but I fear you might be buying high on him. I would look for a younger or cheaper option.
    I would also promote the young forward who has shown the most game this year. For me that is Kharia.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM is one of the few teams playing man in their own zone.

    This is ghastly. I mocked Ralph for this and I can’t believe we play this now. We don’t have enough speed on D to play this ffs.

  21. digger50 says:

    I keep hearing that we as a club should be patient this summer.

    I think it’s the wrong word. We have every right to be impatient and insist on improvement. The talent we have is substantial and needs to be supported and improved upon.

    The right word is cautious.

    We cannot afford mistakes, poor signings, mis steps or lost trades. That may be a tall order but it is achievable. It does not have to involve moving a valuable player in hopes of gaining a valuable player. Or changing a lefty for a righty, or a guy just to work the power play while they leak goals otherwise, or changing a center for a winger.

    A third rounder for Cooper Marody?? Probably better off with Maroon at a decent price but okay, I like that Peter is at least trying. He’s looking and scouring so that’s good. If Marody does not sign that was a complete wasteful high risk move, the type we cannot afford.

    Changing coach is an expensive move, but not high risk.
    Tandem goalie is a must – affordable
    Fourth line center – affordable
    Wingers – need a difference maker, cost an issue
    – need some depth cover (we lost Pitlick, need to find new Pitlick)

    D man – need some cover for Sekera next year. Where did Davidson go?
    – hello Eric, hello Ethan
    – is Auvitu on the team next year?

    Anyway. Lots of improvement to be had before we get to the trading Oscar scenarios

  22. Pouzar says:

    The EDM Oilers produce Scoring Chances at a Top 5 rate (SVA) and we suck.
    Goaltending, Special teams, and Team D are destroying this team.

  23. flea says:

    Anyone else see the idea from the GM meetings about allowing the substitutions of healthy scratch players during the game. A coach could pull a player out and substitute one of the HS in. For injuries/performance/whatever. But once a guy is out he cannot come back.

    What a great idea! It would add a interesting dimension to the game. I think of guys like Yamamoto who could be carried as HS and inserted into games when it was appropriate (IE if the team was up big/down big)

    The NHL needs to do this.

  24. frjohnk says:

    Last nights game, teams sometimes get the bounces. The Blue Jackets got a couple of bounces that were more luck than skill or defensive breakdown. Puck was bouncing around like a pin ball. The Oilers D were there with their men in those instances. The one rush goal against, McDavid got his stick on it but deflected the puck onto the Blue Jackets players stick who put it into the net.

    Not excusing the goaltending or the defense, just some unlucky breaks that led to goals against.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33,

    How logical is it to assume a 32 year old can recover completely from a major knee operation in less than a year?

  26. jtblack says:

    PROBLEM when you are Forecasting SALES or your NHL Roster.

    When the word “IF” is present often it means you are hoping on a lot of things breaking to the Good.

    Lets Look at each Poisition as a whole. From what I read as a collective, here it goes.

    GOALIE – IF TALBOT bounces back to 2016 levels WOODGUY posted on why there is major risk in this “IF”

    DEFENSE – IF LARSSON bounces back
    IF KLEFBOM bounces back
    IF SEKERA can regain his form
    IF NURSE & BENNING can progress
    IF RUSSELL can be slotted in the 5/6/7 hole

    OFFENSE- IF MCD & DRAI are healthy for 82
    IF YAMMY & JP can be in the top 9 on RW
    IF RNH doesnt regress
    IF STROME finds consistency
    IF we can get scoring from the bottom 6
    IF coach can hide Lucic in the lineup

    This team will finish 17 or 18 points out of a playoff spot. The only 3 Teams below them in the West are:
    CHI- They have 3 Cups and are paying for it
    VAN- Trainwreck
    AZ- should be relegated.

    THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY “IFS” for this team. I dont see a recovery to the Playoffs next season.

  27. Wayne Kenov says:

    I think Rattie illustrates just how inept this teams wingers are. I don’t see us making playoffs again for awhile. Too many holes.

  28. 106 and 106 says:

    The silence here speaks louder than words.

  29. Oilin4 says:

    jtblack:
    PROBLEM when you are Forecasting SALES or your NHL Roster.

    When the word “IF” is present often it means you are hoping on a lot of things breaking to the Good.

    Lets Look at each Poisition as a whole. From what I read as a collective, here it goes.

    GOALIE – IF TALBOT bounces back to 2016 levels WOODGUY posted on why there is major risk in this “IF”

    DEFENSE – IF LARSSON bounces back
    IF KLEFBOM bounces back
    IF SEKERA can regain his form
    IF NURSE & BENNING can progress
    IF RUSSELL can be slotted in the 5/6/7 hole

    OFFENSE- IF MCD & DRAI are healthy for 82
    IF YAMMY & JP can be in the top 9 on RW
    IF RNH doesnt regress
    IF STROME finds consistency
    IF we can get scoring from the bottom 6
    IF coach can hide Lucic in the lineup

    This team will finish 17 or 18 points out of a playoff spot.The only 3 Teams below them in the West are:
    CHI- They have 3 Cups and are paying for it
    VAN- Trainwreck
    AZ- should be relegated.

    THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY “IFS” for this team.I dont see a recovery to the Playoffs next season.

    Great post. I’d add: If PK and PP regress to 2016.17 levels.

    But I’d also add that Klefbom had a better season than he’s given credit for.

    2016.17
    50.6 CF%
    0.5 CFRel
    52.0 FF%
    FFRel 1.3
    PDO 100.5

    2017.18
    52.6 CF%
    1.7 CFRel
    53.3 FF%
    1.9 FFRel
    PDO 96.8

    His boxcars mostly at EV no difference either
    2016.17
    All 82 12-26-38
    EV 82 9-12-21
    PP 82 3-13-16

    2017.18
    All 66 5-16-21
    EV 66 3-11-14
    PP 66 1-5-6

    Don’t think you can blame him for that.

    Usage stats show Klef had similar season for zone starts and QoC. Could make the case he had a better year this year than last.

    Also: Trading Klef is madness.

  30. frjohnk says:

    Majority of McDavids microstats are not only blowing away the rest of his competition, but his microstats this year compared to last year…..he has taken another leap from last year.
    Controlled zone exits
    Controlled zone entries
    Scoring Chances created
    scoring chances off the rush
    individual shot attempts from the slot
    passes that lead to shots on net
    takeaways
    even strength scoring

    he leads the league in all the above and all these are better than last year

    Only things down from last year is PP scoring ( -7 pts with 5 games left) and faceoff wins

    GF%
    Oilers GF% 48%
    Oilers with McDavid On ice 58%
    Oilers with McDavid Off ice 42%

    I love the fact that the Hart trophy is given to the player who absolutely lights it up on the ice AND plays on a team that when he is on the bench is not producing replacement level results.

    Sorry Connor, you do not fit this criteria. No Hart trophy this year, even though you have blown away most of your numbers from last year, its because the rest of the team ( lines 2 to 4 are 27th best GF% compared to all other lines 2 to 4 in the league) has faceplanted.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    J-Bo: Yeah… It’s ugly. I think they can afford one signing up front and Lucic clearly isn’t going anywhere. Is this better or worse?

    Nuge – McD – Yamamoto
    Vanek – Drai – JP
    Lucic – Strome – Kassian
    Caggiula – Khaira – Pak/Slep

    Much better. Using McLellans preference for “pairs”, I was going to suggest the following (I see you have incorporated these already):

    Nuge – McDavid – x
    x – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – Strome – x
    x – Khaira – Kassian

    For the first line, Rattie might be the “x” guy, although I’m not convinced yet that he can sustain anything close to his current production for a whole season. If someone else is available in the summer you do that, maybe you sign Rattie anyhow at <$1M because you can bury that.

    Second line "x I'd like to see Khaira, actually, and this means hiring a new 4C. If they'd play Khaira there now we would at least have a clue going in to the summer how he'd perform there… and a 4C UFA is going to be easier and cheaper to procure than a top-6 LW. Of course, if you can pry AA out of Detroit for a reasonable package (Jones + 2019 2nd) you'd do that all day. (That'll make LT's Ty Smith pick more palatable – less of a Leftorium to worry about. Samorukov might just eat Jones' lunch anyhow.)

    Third line "x" is the perfect spot for Yamamoto, I think. Strome seems to like playing the mentor role and I think Lucic does too, plus soft minutes for the kid and added speed / tenacity for a duo that needs it badly.

    Fourth line is less important, I'd like to see PK-ers, maybe even an all-new cast – if Khaira is moved up to line 2. Of course, Aberg, Kassian and Khaira are all under contract next season, so that could be your line right there. Caggiula has scored 13 goals this year and may have some trade value, Slepyshev has obvious size and skill which may give him some trade value too. I would have loved to see Slepyshev on Draisaitl's left, but maybe that ship has sailed, Khaira seems to be the better candidate. 4th liners are a dime-a-dozen on the UFA market, so I'm not overly concerned about this.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    who:
    Between this and the Reinhart trade I’m amazed everyone just assumes Chia will be back.

    We just don’t want to get our hopes up, only to be dashed again.

  33. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk,

    – I don’t really get the interest in the Hart Tophy, nor the angst as to whether CmD wins

    – It’s always been awarded to a player that takes his team to the playoffs: Only once since expansion did a non-playoff player win: Lemieux’s crazy year when they didn’t make it and Gretz was injured for a stretch, and if Pitts was in another division they would have been playoff team

    – That’s the convention: best player on a team that goes to playoffs. I kind of like this convention: playoffs matter.

    – The Hart is awarded to most important player on team, and how important are you if your team sucks and you don’t make the playoffs: that’s how it is: always has been.

  34. npanciroli says:

    If I’m Chiarelli I’m thinking the best way to fix this team is balance it.

    So Nuge for Ceci to get that RHD PP options we’ve been solely missing.

    Then since we have a plethora of LHD we trade Nurse or Klefbom because they are too young and you need vets. So you trade one for a great sniper for Connor since we don’t have one.

    Klefbom for Hoffman.

    Then I think to myself, “man I’m fucking smart.”

  35. digger50 says:

    jtblack:
    PROBLEM when you are Forecasting SALES or your NHL Roster.

    When the word “IF” is present often it means you are hoping on a lot of things breaking to the Good.

    Lets Look at each Poisition as a whole. From what I read as a collective, here it goes.

    GOALIE – IF TALBOT bounces back to 2016 levels WOODGUY posted on why there is major risk in this “IF”

    DEFENSE – IF LARSSON bounces back
    IF KLEFBOM bounces back
    IF SEKERA can regain his form
    IF NURSE & BENNING can progress
    IF RUSSELL can be slotted in the 5/6/7 hole

    OFFENSE- IF MCD & DRAI are healthy for 82
    IF YAMMY & JP can be in the top 9 on RW
    IF RNH doesnt regress
    IF STROME finds consistency
    IF we can get scoring from the bottom 6
    IF coach can hide Lucic in the lineup

    This team will finish 17 or 18 points out of a playoff spot.The only 3 Teams below them in the West are:
    CHI- They have 3 Cups and are paying for it
    VAN- Trainwreck
    AZ- should be relegated.

    THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY “IFS” for this team.I dont see a recovery to the Playoffs next season.

    I suggest changing your “ifs” into musts and that is the offseason plan necessary to reach playoffs.

    They must get another goalie as insurance
    They must get cover for JP and Yammer
    They must be able to bump Milan to third line
    Way too many ifs you mention on the blue line so they must get some insurance. Why did they trade Davidson

  36. npanciroli says:

    jtblack,

    Praying for a magical wildcard run at this point.

  37. digger50 says:

    npanciroli:
    If I’m Chiarelli I’m thinking the best way to fix this team is balance it.

    So Nuge for Ceci to get that RHD PP options we’ve been solely missing.

    Then since we have a plethora of LHD we trade Nurse or Klefbom because they are too young and you need vets. So you trade one for a great sniper for Connor since we don’t have one.

    Klefbom for Hoffman.

    Then I think to myself, “man I’m fucking smart.”

    Sarcasm meter? I’m not sure I’m getting it!

  38. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    frjohnk,

    – I don’t really get the interest in the Hart Tophy, nor the angst as to whether CmD wins

    – It’s always been awarded to a player that takes his team to the playoffs: Only once since expansion did a non-playoff player win: Lemieux’s crazy year when they didn’t make it and Gretz was injured for a stretch, and if Pitts was in another division they would have been playoff team

    – That’s the convention: best player on a team that goes to playoffs.I kind of like this convention: playoffs matter.

    – The Hart is awarded to most important player on team, and how important are you if your team sucks and you don’t make the playoffs: that’s how it is: always has been.

    So would you vote Taylor Hall over McDavid if the Devils get into the playoffs?

    I wouldnt.

  39. OilClog says:

    The team in orange.

    Go fuck yourself in your fancy suits TMac, the team in orange is your fucking unit.

    Luckily new GM’s like to have their guy, and this GM if he stays unfortunately… TMac isn’t his guy so he may get to bring in his guy.

    Fire the douche in the fancy suits.

  40. OilClog says:

    frjohnk: So would you vote Taylor Hall over McDavid if the Devils get into the playoffs?

    I wouldnt.

    Hall has been phenomal this season and his team has rode his wave.

    Mcdavid will win the players choice and the art, in a season like this that’s enough. Imo.

  41. frjohnk says:

    digger50: I suggest changing your “ifs” into musts and that is the offseason plan necessary to reach playoffs.

    They must get another goalie as insurance
    They must get cover for JP and Yammer
    They must be able to bump Milan to third line
    Way too many ifs you mention on the blue line so they must get some insurance. Why did they trade Davidson

    sounds like we need a bunch of hope
    Some would say we need to pray

    Last year, Woodguy offered up whisky and burnt offerings to the Gords
    Not sure it really worked, but I dont recall him doing that sort of thing this year and look at what happened.

    And here we were all blaming his phone.

  42. --hudson-- says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    frjohnk,

    – I don’t really get the interest in the Hart Tophy, nor the angst as to whether CmD wins

    – It’s always been awarded to a player that takes his team to the playoffs: Only once since expansion did a non-playoff player win: Lemieux’s crazy year when they didn’t make it and Gretz was injured for a stretch, and if Pitts was in another division they would have been playoff team

    – That’s the convention: best player on a team that goes to playoffs.I kind of like this convention: playoffs matter.

    – The Hart is awarded to most important player on team, and how important are you if your team sucks and you don’t make the playoffs: that’s how it is: always has been.

    That Lemieux win was in the 21 team league when only 5 teams missed the playoffs. Maybe that criteria is not as relevant in a 31 team league?

  43. who says:

    leadfarmer:
    McSorley33,

    How logical is it to assume a 32 year old can recover completely from a major knee operation in less than a year?

    I think Markov recoverd from 2. But he definitely lost a step. He was smart enough to adjust his game and still be a top 4 dman.
    Hope Sekera can do the same.

  44. frjohnk says:

    OilClog: Hall has been phenomal this season and his team has rode his wave.

    Mcdavid will win the players choice and the art, in a season like this that’s enough. Imo.

    If the Devils make the playoffs and the Avs dont, Hall probably wins the Hart because the Eastern media have been praising his play and he does not have much help.
    Giroux is probably in the mix as well, but he has some good linemates in Courtiuer and Vorachek
    Kopitar probably gets some votes
    Kucherov has had help with Stamkos, Hedman and a very good roster
    Malkin plays on a team with Crosby, Kessel and Letang
    Wheeler plays on a deep team

  45. Pink Socks says:

    The problem with Sekera is that it was a knee injury, which is not connect to his mind. He is making some completely brain-dead decisions on the ice. Hopefully he regains that mobility and he is able to compete at his previous levels, but he needs to get the mental part of the game back too.

  46. Bling says:

    Sekera was absolutely awful last night.

    That attempted pass to Draisaitl below the goal line led directly to Cam Atkinson’s goal. On another GA, he left his man completely unmarked in front of the net. He was also doing bizarre things offensively — he had time at the point on one sortie, and passed it directly onto the stick of a CBJ player.

    I can understand him not being 100% healthy, but his decision making is awful and has been bad for quite some time.

    I agree with Godot in that you have to see how he does after an offseason of recovery, but I would have him as my 3rd pairing LHD next season and no higher.

  47. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    The coach who refers to the team he’s coached for 3 years as “the team in orange” rather than “us” and “we” owns this.

    It is just so weird when he does that in press conferences. It is like. Hey…not my fault. I had no part in this.

  48. frjohnk says:

    frjohnk: If the Devils make the playoffs and the Avs dont, Hall probably wins the Hart because the Eastern media have been praising his play and he does not have much help.
    Giroux is probably in the mix as well, but he has some good linemates in Courtiuer and Vorachek
    Kopitar probably gets some votes
    Kucherov has had help with Stamkos, Hedman and a very good roster
    Malkin plays on a team with Crosby, Kessel and Letang
    Wheeler plays on a deep team

    I do think if both the Devils and the Avs make the playoffs, the way the Hart Trophy vote goes, it will probably go to Mackinnon over Hall. Both are elite superstars and have had fantastic years. But with where the Avs and MacKinnon were last year and the turn around to this year, MacKinnon will probably win it. Both deserving in this case though.

    As for why Im cheering for McDavid to win it. Well, its because as an Oiler fan, we dont have much to cheer for right now other than McDavid. He is having a year that is greater than last year, and without him this year we are battling for dead last. Compared to all other players in the league, he brings the most value and its not even close.

  49. godot10 says:

    who: Yeah it was painfully obvious last night. This team is lost in a man to man defense. Too many young players. Some of the vets can do it but all it takes is one guy to lose his check and the whole thing turns into a shit show.
    If they are going to make a coaching and/or systems change next year would be the time to do it. They are not winning a cup next year anyways and it takes time to get comfortable with change.

    On one of the goals against…I think the first one… I get confused since there were so many…every was playing man to man and Russell decided to play zone. I know why Russell decided to play zone, because he would have to leave the front of the net to go chase the guy into the corner. But everyone else was covering there man, and the guy Russell decided not to chase ended up coming back into the high danger area and scoring with no one marking him.

  50. digger50 says:

    godot10: It is just so weird when he does that in press conferences.It is like.Hey…not my fault.I had no part in this.

    Yup

    He’s had that all season

    I’m doing my part, the team just won’t listen. It’s not me, it’s the players. It’s not my system, it’s poor execution.

    If Todd is let go, it won’t be a soft landing. With the talent he’s had available, and poor special teams results, I don’t see any other GM’s lining up with a coaching offer.

  51. Confused says:

    According to Elliott, Jimmy Schuldt is likely to become a free agent shortly.

    http://www.scsuhuskies.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=3713

    Since we are apparently out of the Brickley stakes, anyone got any viewpoint on this guy,

  52. Bling says:

    Oilin4: Great post. I’d add: If PK and PP regress to 2016.17 levels.

    But I’d also add that Klefbom had a better season than he’s given credit for.

    2016.17
    50.6 CF%
    0.5 CFRel
    52.0 FF%
    FFRel 1.3
    PDO 100.5

    2017.18
    52.6 CF%
    1.7 CFRel
    53.3 FF%
    1.9 FFRel
    PDO 96.8

    His boxcars mostly at EV no difference either
    2016.17
    All82 12-26-38
    EV 82 9-12-21
    PP 82 3-13-16

    2017.18
    All 66 5-16-21
    EV 66 3-11-14
    PP 66 1-5-6

    Don’t think you can blame him for that.

    Usage stats show Klef had similar season for zone starts and QoC. Could make the case he had a better year this year than last.

    Also: Trading Klef is madness.

    Great post.

    I think another thing we should keep in mind with Klef is that McLellan wanted him take 300+ shots at the beginning of this season. I think that was a mistake.

    As good as his shot is, Klef is also a tremendous passer, and his offensive game really started to come along in the second half when he began to trust his own instincts as a player.

    As frustrating as this season has been, it has been very rewarding to see Klef, Nurse, and Benning take real steps forward in their development.

  53. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk: So would you vote Taylor Hall over McDavid if the Devils get into the playoffs?

    I wouldnt.

    – CmD’s year relative to the pack isn’t crazy time like when Lemieux won

    – Hall is a notch down from CmD

    – Kucherov: he’s improved on last year, this year they are making the playoffs, 40 100: done, elite (he’s not a north-american though so some bias)

    – Hart is basically the most points playoff guy, non Hasek/Price/Orr division. And when you have the best player in the league, that guy tends to lift the team to playoffs.

    – Put it this way: playoff team, and CMD wins again: don’t hate the playah, hate the game

    – I think its a fine convention…

    * and I think: the “how important is he if the team doesn’t make the playoffs” is a reasonable argument. Hopefully Hall makes the playoffs and shows some mad skill so he can improve his street cred.

    * Hall making the playoffs and lighting it up would be cathartic, and so much fun to read about how we traded him away for a loser mediocre RHD. Man is our GM sh$t

  54. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Was tmac running this defensive “system” in SJ?

  55. Pink Socks says:

    The D as a whole was a compete tire fire last night. Playing man defense with 4 guys who have tremendous difficulty winning the physical battles is downright foolishness. Bear needs to be stronger, Benning loses way more battles than he wins, Sekera is a mess, and Russell is a disaster virtually every game. TMac should be fired.

    In the rare occasion when the team gains possession in the defensive zone, watch the forwards regrouping and heading up ice. Two forwards come down and wheel up ice. Theoretically, it would be nice to hit one of these forwards in stride to come up ice with speed. Instead, we watch the D play hot potato back and forth or just chip the puck up ice causing these forwards to need to come back and either regroup, or cover for another neutral zone turnover.

    The transition game and defensive zone coverage is maddening to watch. TMac should be fired.

    Khaira should be playing with Draisaitl, Kassian needs to be playing higher up or traded.

  56. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: So would you vote Taylor Hall over McDavid if the Devils get into the playoffs?

    I wouldnt.

    I would.

    Taylor Hall got 3 points last night in a game the Devils had to have, and they had to come from behind.

    If the Avalanche make the playoffs, MacKinnon should be the Hart Trophy winner. He still lead McDavid in points per game. He is on a much worse roster. McDavid has no separation. If you don’t make the playoffs, the separation from the other candidates much be significant for the most outstanding player to be the most valuable player.

    My ballot if the Avalanche and Devils both make the playoffs is MacKinnon #1 and Hall #2. Hall is now at 1.2 points per game (now top 5) with a weaker forward supporting cast than MacKinnon.

  57. Confused says:

    Réal Goudenyéu,

    Probably.

    But times change as the game gets faster man is more difficult. More movement is problematic for man.
    Big, static bodies in the corner is good for man.

    Static picks, via stationary players (locked up) or the net is difficult for man. Mobile picks are almost impossible for man.

    CHI, e.g. plays lots of rolling picks, puck carried goes one way, the rest of the team the other.
    We end up with Darnell covering Kane at the blue line.

    Unless mobile picks become interference (a la NBA), the trailing Dman is dead. Good teams have lots of mobile pick plays, do not see it much from the Oilers.

  58. Psyche says:

    Has are on the prowl for Jimmy Schuldt, 22-yr-old LH D with 38 pts in 40 GP this season.

    https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2018/3/21/17137960/ncaa-free-agent-target-jimmy-schuldt-defenceman-st-cloud-state-montreal-canadiens-development-camp

    I’m looking for a more detailed scouting report on the young man.

  59. who says:

    godot10: On one of the goals against…I think the first one… I get confused since there were so many…every was playing man to man and Russell decided to play zone.I know why Russell decided to play zone, because he would have to leave the front of the net to go chase the guy into the corner.But everyone else was covering there man, and the guy Russell decided not to chase ended upcoming back into the high danger area and scoring with no one marking him.

    Yeah I saw that too. They’re lucky Vanek didn’t just score on the original shot. He was basically unchallenged.

  60. Pink Socks says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    Was tmac running this defensive “system” in SJ?

    I can’t say for certain, but for argument’s sake lets say he was.

    Brent Burns – Dan Boyle
    Jason Demers – Marc-Eduard Vlasic

    A slightly more talented top 4 than what we ran last night:

    Nurse – Larsson
    Russell – Bear

    The problem with TMac is that his system is his system, regardless of the players. He had a top 4 in SJ which had 4 highly capable puck movers. Klefbom and healthy Sekera changes that, so this is an indictment on PC for not providing an adequate defensive corpse, but moreso on TMac to not adjust his system to fit the roster. He seems to be quite stubborn in his ways, and that “strategy” is killing the D, combined with a train wreck of special teams (I don’t care they are better in March), and his forward deployment should have caused his one way ticket out of Edmonton 2 months ago.

  61. mustang says:

    OilClog: Hall has been phenomal this season and his team has rode his wave.

    Mcdavid will win the players choice and the art, in a season like this that’s enough. Imo.

    McDavid should be awarded all the hardware possible. This kid is the best in the world and it’s not really close at all. On the odd off night, rest of the league has a chance to be as good or better. It is not his

    fault he’s asked to drag at least 5-7 players around on his back that would not be on a playoff contending team. The fact they aren’t last by a country mile is a testament to the young man.

    It’s the most bizarre rational when people are trying to justify in their mind and convince others that he’s
    not worthy to win the hart. I just ask myself what the hell are they possibly watching

  62. Melman says:

    who: I think Markov recoverd from 2. But he definitely lost a step. He was smart enough to adjust his game and still be a top 4 dman.
    Hope Sekera can do the same.

    Brought this up a couple days ago. History shows Sekera’s injury results in the next season being lost: miss 1/2, but not good rest of year. PC either knew this and didn’t provide cover, or failed to know this – neither is acceptable. Ridding themselves of Sekera before (say) next Christmas would also be dumb. There’s no way to fully assess his recovery until then. Seems to me he was pretty good up to the injury. If PC is still in charge $5 says he fumbles this.

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: It is just so weird when he does that in press conferences.It is like.Hey…not my fault.I had no part in this.

    I’ve noticed this too. He’s constantly throwing his guys under the bus when he should be the leader in the room. Part of leadership is taking responsibility. Man up!

  64. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OilClog:
    The team in orange.

    Go fuck yourself in your fancy suits TMac, the team in orange is your fucking unit.

    I’ve been saying for a while that it is those orange unis. Bring back the blue and it’s all good. On TV the orange makes my eyes bleed.

    Oh, I thought TMc was blaming the unis. My bad

  65. frjohnk says:

    godot10: I would.

    Taylor Hall got 3 points last night in a game the Devils had to have, and they had to come from behind.

    If the Avalanche make the playoffs, MacKinnon should be the Hart Trophy winner.He still lead McDavid in points per game.He is on a much worse roster.McDavid has no separation.If you don’t make the playoffs, the separation from the other candidates much be significant for the most outstanding player to be the most valuable player.

    My ballot if the Avalanche and Devils both make the playoffs is MacKinnon #1 and Hall #2.Hall is now at 1.2 points per game (now top 5) with a weaker forward supporting cast than MacKinnon.

    I realize why people would vote Hall and MacKinnon over McDavid. Hart trophy has almost always gone to a player on a playoff team.

    I just dont understand why McDavid gets penalized because the rest of the Oilers without him are worse than the Avs when without MacKinnon and the Devils without Hall.

    And most would agree that McDavid brings more than MacKinnon, Hall and any other player in the league.

    I guess the definition of the Hart Trophy should go to the player deemed most valuable to his team that makes the playoffs.

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    npanciroli:
    If I’m Chiarelli I’m thinking the best way to fix this team is balance it.

    So Nuge for Ceci to get that RHD PP options we’ve been solely missing.

    Then since we have a plethora of LHD we trade Nurse or Klefbom because they are too young and you need vets. So you trade one for a great sniper for Connor since we don’t have one.

    Klefbom for Hoffman.

    Then I think to myself, “man I’m fucking smart.”

    Sorry, but I’m not sure if you’re serious or not. I usually get sarcasm, but it’s hard to tell here, other than the thought you can’t be serious.

  67. HiddenDarts says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): I’ve been saying for a while that it is those orange unis. Bring back the blue and it’s all good. On TV the orange makes my eyes bleed.

    Finally, somebody gets to the real crux of the matter. This team is actually physically more difficult to watch now.

  68. jtblack says:

    The worst Oiler Home Losses this Season:

    5-2
    6-1
    5-2
    4-0
    4-1
    4-0
    5-0
    5-0
    5-0
    7-3

    10 Ass Kickings on Home Ice.
    GF-9 GA-50

    Keep in mind the playoff teams only have 10 losses or less on home ice (Min-6, WPG-7, Nash-8 etc) .. NVM 10 embarrassing, lame ass efforts!

  69. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Did I just read Nuge for Ceci? What!?
    Have you seen how awful Ceci is these days? I don’t think he is even an upgrade on Benning.

    Meaning I don’t think Chia is that dumb if that was the implication.

  70. Pechetr says:

    It may be just me but Pool Party is “Jultzing” a lot lately. He doesn’t need to be a hitter but my god engage physically. I know he is young, but that is a habit that must be broken. Maybe he is out of position or not reading the play but he is a big enough body to at least get in the way. Draisaitl does it when he is being lazy as well. I certainly hope it isn’t laziness with Pool.

  71. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    frjohnk: I realize why people would vote Hall and MacKinnon over McDavid.Hart trophy has almost always gone to a player on a playoff team.

    I just dont understand why McDavid gets penalized because the rest of the Oilers without him are worse than the Avs when without MacKinnon and the Devils without Hall.

    And most would agree that McDavid brings more than MacKinnon, Hall and any other player in the league.

    I guess the definition of the Hart Trophy should go to the player deemed most valuable to his team that makes the playoffs.

    The Hart is like the Selke or the Norris.

    The Selke goes to the best defensive forward who still scores at 1st line rates. The Norris goes to the defenseman who still puts up a bunch of points and has a nice plus minus.

    The Hart will go to the most valuable player if there are no players who are within spitting distance on playoff teams.

    Assuming Avs, Kings and Devils make it:

    Mackinnon
    Kucherov
    Hall
    Kopitar
    McDavid
    Malkin

    would be my guess.
    If Avs, Kings, Devils miss and Kucherov and Malkin finsh at 99 points or less and McDavid goes over 110

    McDavid
    Kucherov
    Malkin
    Mackinnon
    Hall
    Kopitar

    If Kucherov and/or Malkin are at 102 and McDavid 110 with Kings, Avs, Devils missing

    Kuch/Malkin
    McDavid

    That said we all know what we have in McDavid so who cares what Mark Spector and the other writers think.

  72. bendelson says:

    As a fan, I did not appreciate that game last night.

  73. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the qualities of this team I really appreciate is how Talbot will bail the team out with a big save on occasion when they make a mental error in their own zone. Oh wait….

  74. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Benning’s CF and xGF numbers are strong with Klefbom and Nurse, weak with Russell(boat anchor) and Sekera(recovering from injury). I still see him as an important piece, better than Bear for at least the next 1-2 years.

    In a perfect world they could replace Russell with Demers

  75. Wayne Kenov says:

    frjohnk: I realize why people would vote Hall and MacKinnon over McDavid.Hart trophy has almost always gone to a player on a playoff team.

    I just dont understand why McDavid gets penalized because the rest of the Oilers without him are worse than the Avs when without MacKinnon and the Devils without Hall.

    And most would agree that McDavid brings more than MacKinnon, Hall and any other player in the league.

    I guess the definition of the Hart Trophy should go to the player deemed most valuable to his team that makes the playoffs.

    They won’t change the definition. They need the flexibility in case a Leafs player is ever in a similar position.

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    The current first line has been together 10 games now, and the results are astounding:

    McDavid: 10, 9-12-21 +8
    Nugent-Hopkins: 10, 5-7-12 +12
    Rattie: 7, 4-3-7 +5

    Unfortunately this isn’t going to last – at least not at this level – because their shooting percentages are through the roof, as seen here against season totals.

    McDavid: 30.0% / 15.4%
    Nugent-Hopkins: 15.2% / 15.0%
    Rattie: 28.6% / not enough data, only played 9 games total

    Smarter people could use these numbers to predict future success. Is it possible for Nuge and Connor to hit 80 goals in a full season together? McDavid’s career shooting percentage is 14.0, Nugent-Hopkins over the same span (last three years) is shooting 11.4%, although it’s reasonable to expect a bump because McDavid. Nuge is averaging 190 shots per 82, at 11.4% that’s 22 goals, at 15% that’s 29 goals. McDavid is averaging 248 shots per 82, at 14% that’s 35 goals and at 18% that’s 45 goals. Both players have received a bump in numbers from each other, so it’s reasonable to assume better-than-career-numbers while together.

    Furthermore, neither has especially benefited from excessive PP numbers in the past 10 games either. McDavid has been 1-2-3 and Nugent-Hopkins 0-0-0, numbers which are behind expectations: McDavid typically gets 13% of his goals from the man-advantage (11% in the past 10), Nugent-Hopkins 25% (v 0%).

    So I’m predicting 55 goals combined as the base expectation for these two, and 80 goals at the top end – IF they play healthy, and together, for a full season.

  77. Professor Q says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): The Hart is like the Selke or the Norris.

    The Selke goes to the best defensive forward who still scores at 1st line rates. The Norris goes to the defenseman who still puts up a bunch of points and has a nice plus minus.

    The Hart will go to the most valuable player if there are no players who are within spitting distance on playoff teams.

    Assuming Avs, Kings and Devils make it:

    Mackinnon
    Kucherov
    Hall
    Kopitar
    McDavid
    Malkin

    would be my guess.
    If Avs, Kings, Devils miss and Kucherov and Malkin finsh at 99 points or less and McDavid goes over 110

    McDavid
    Kucherov
    Malkin
    Mackinnon
    Hall
    Kopitar

    If Kucherov and/or Malkin are at 102 and McDavid 110 with Kings, Avs, Devils missing

    Kuch/Malkin
    McDavid

    That said we all know what we have in McDavid so who cares what Mark Spector and the other writers think.

    And what if McDavid gets over 110, and surpasses Ovechkin’s 45 goals?

    Spector would still likely vote for like Bergeron over him.

  78. Professor Q says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): I’ve been saying for a while that it is those orange unis. Bring back the blue and it’s all good. On TV the orange makes my eyes bleed.

    Oh, I thought TMc was blaming the unis. My bad

    Maybe that’s the plan.

    Go with the 1970s orange jerseys and then switch to the blue and enter the Dynasty Period again.

    Same with the Browns going with their original 1946 jerseys lately (even though that, too, was a Dynasty…). They’re likely going to be changing back to their jerseys associated with their 1950s Dynasty, just when they have a good chance of becoming good again (finally).

    All in the style planning. That makes good teams…

  79. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I’m actually being 100% serious when I say “I think McDavid could reach 80 by himself and 55 will be an average year for him” in response to this.

    The guy is a chance machine, he had two breakaways that he didn’t score on last night and he does it every single game.

    There was an interesting chat during one of the intermissions last night where a talking head was saying that “even with this bump McDavid isn’t a natural goal scorer like Ovechkin or Laine so there is probably a ceiling here.”

    I think this is some faulty logic.

    I don’t think you would find many folks who would say that Gretzky was a more natural goal scorer than say Mike Bossy or Brett Hall, I know I wouldn’t. But the lions share of goal scoring records belong to Gretzky and not to Hall or Bossy. Being touched by the Hockey Gods means you don’t have to be a natural, it means that you have the ability to bend the game to your own will.

    With that in mind underestimating Connor McDavid and his goal scoring prowess seems like a bad idea.

  80. Professor Q says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Especially when he had that game with 25 HDSCs from his zone entries alone.

    When regular star players usually get around 4 to 6 and he regularly gets more than that.

    Once he’s able to maximize his capitalization on those chances he could perform feats never before seen, like maybe 10-15 point games.

  81. Professor Q says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!,

    Also, someone has Taylor Hall on the brain there. 😉

    I think Brett Hull was magnificent, as well. One of my favourites.

  82. Side says:

    I agree with what Debrusk was saying last night.

    The award is for the most valuable member to his team not, the most valuable member to his team that makes the playoffs.

    I feel like this “playoffs” qualifier is added by the same kind of people who think any regular season performance does not matter and only playoff performances matter. Similarly to people who think “how do we know if Hall is good or not if he never played a playoff game?”

    If you look at McDavid’s production and stats compared to the other players on his team and do the same exercise to other teams, it’s pretty clear that McDavid is the most valuable member on his team compared to other candidates.

  83. Professor Q says:

    Side,

    And he is the MVP of the League, itself, as well.

    Simply astounding how people don’t realize that. He’s been on fire lately. With what was it, a 1.61 PPGA?

  84. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Professor Q: And what if McDavid gets over 110, and surpasses Ovechkin’s 45 goals?

    Spector would still likely vote for like Bergeron over him.

    You can see my opinion on Spec in yesterday’s game thread. Having an opinion and a platform to express it does not make your opinion better than anyone else’s.

    I have never seen anyone go and brag on TV about being one of the 175 people with a vote that counts so his colleagues are wrong so that he can continue to bring the Oilers down when the rest of the media around the League mostly try to bring their teams up. Yeah, hold Chia and TMc and others culpable for this lost season, but if you want to redefine the meaning of MVP so you can talk down at everyone and brag that your vote counts then really I feel sorry for you. And no wonder the players find Edmonton tough to play in.

  85. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Professor Q:
    Side,

    And he is the MVP of the League, itself, as well.

    Simply astounding how people don’t realize that. He’s been on fire lately. With what was it, a 1.61 PPGA?

    And people will argue points after being eliminated are meaningless. And why didn’t he score 1.6ppg early when the games counted. Never mind he had the flu.

    And round and round we go. But instead of making the case for him our media likes to poohpooh it

  86. SwedishPoster says:

    Is Kassian ok? He’s played with zero passion for months now. To me he looks like a player who’s contemplating walking away from the game, but I’m probably reading too much into a guy slumping.

  87. Confused says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    LeBrun is all over Carlson sign and trade.

    how about PC lets them keep him!

    Talbot at (50%) for Holtby.

  88. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): You can see my opinion on Spec in yesterday’s game thread. Having an opinion and a platform to express it does not make your opinion better than anyone else’s.

    I have never seen anyone go and brag on TV about being one of the 175 people with a vote that counts so his colleagues are wrong so that he can continue to bring the Oilers down when the rest of the media around the League mostly try to bring their teams up. Yeah, hold Chia and TMc and others culpable for this lost season, but if you want to redefine the meaning of MVP so you can talk down at everyone and brag that your vote counts then really I feel sorry for you. And no wonder the players find Edmonton tough to play in.

    Just to be clear about this. Edmonton is now a tough market for players because the media doesn’t vote for their guy for an award? I’m pretty sure I heard Spector say McDavid is the best player in the world.

  89. who says:

    ArmchairGM:
    The current first line has been together 10 games now, and the results are astounding:

    McDavid: 10, 9-12-21 +8
    Nugent-Hopkins: 10, 5-7-12 +12
    Rattie: 7, 4-3-7 +5

    Unfortunately this isn’t going to last – at least not at this level – because their shooting percentages are through the roof, as seen here against season totals.

    McDavid:30.0% / 15.4%
    Nugent-Hopkins:15.2% / 15.0%
    Rattie:28.6% / not enough data, only played 9 games total

    Smarter people could use these numbers to predict future success. Is it possible for Nuge and Connor to hit 80 goals in a full season together? McDavid’s career shooting percentage is 14.0, Nugent-Hopkins over the same span (last three years) is shooting 11.4%, although it’s reasonable to expect a bump because McDavid. Nuge is averaging 190 shots per 82, at 11.4% that’s 22 goals, at 15% that’s 29 goals. McDavid is averaging 248 shots per 82, at 14% that’s 35 goals and at 18% that’s 45 goals. Both players have received a bump in numbers from each other, so it’s reasonable to assume better-than-career-numbers while together.

    Furthermore, neither has especially benefited from excessive PP numbers in the past 10 games either. McDavid has been 1-2-3 and Nugent-Hopkins 0-0-0, numbers which are behind expectations: McDavid typically gets 13% of his goals from the man-advantage (11% in the past 10), Nugent-Hopkins 25% (v 0%).

    So I’m predicting 55 goals combined as the base expectation for these two, and 80 goals at the top end – IF they play healthy, and together, for a full season.

    I think 55 is pretty low.
    40 is probably the new norm for Mcdavid. And if Nuge stays on that line he should hit 25 fairly easily. 65 seems more like baseline to me.
    Also would like to respond to all the people gushing about Nuge with Mcdavid. Yes he looks good there but I don’t think he’s playing any better than Drai did. The difference is that Drai is going to create more offense from the 2nd line than Nuge will.

  90. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965: Just to be clear about this. Edmonton is now a tough market for players because the media doesn’t vote for their guy for an award? I’m pretty sure I heard Spector say McDavid is the best player in the world.

    No. That is not what i said. That is merely one component. I don’t want to get into an argument with you about Spector. There is a reason why 99% of the time i watch the opposition feed and he is part of that. So i am biased against him, yes. His arrogance rubs me the wrong way. I am sure it does some players, too

    If you feel differenrly., that’s fine. But i did not say that not voting for players for awards is what makes Edmonton a tough market

    That would be leaving out a lot of other reasons.

  91. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM,

    “So I’m predicting 55 goals combined as the base expectation for these two, and 80 goals at the top end ”

    That’s quite a range. Given yourself lots of wiggle room 🙂

    Connor will get 50+ nxr yr. Thats my prediction

  92. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: I do think if both the Devils and the Avs make the playoffs, the way the Hart Trophy vote goes, it will probably go to Mackinnon over Hall.Both are elite superstars and have had fantastic years.But with where the Avs and MacKinnon were last year and the turn around to this year, MacKinnon will probably win it.Both deserving in this case though.

    As for why Im cheering for McDavid to win it.Well, its because as an Oiler fan, we dont have much to cheer for right now other than McDavid.He is having a year that is greater than last year, and without him this year we are battling for dead last.Compared to all other players in the league, he brings the most value and its not even close.

    Hall having almost double the points of his nearest teammate does it for me and on top of that he has 1.2 ppg to Hischlers 0.64. Mckinnon is having a great season but both of his linemates have a lot more points than any of Halls teammates.

  93. Pretendergast says:

    Pechetr

    It may be just mebut Pool Party is “Jultzing” a lot lately. He doesn’t need to be a hitter but my god engage physically.

    This is not what Jultzing is

    I know he is young, but that is a habit that must be broken. Maybe he is out of position or not reading the play but he is a big enough body to at least get in the way.

    I see you are in the Yakupov way of handling prospects, ‘let’s make them something they’re not’ ‘break them down and build them up’ etc.

    Draisaitl does it when he is being lazy as well. I certainly hope it isn’t laziness with Pool.

    NHL players, especially ones that have 68 points like the above referenced, are assuredly not lazy. Be better.

  94. Hockey Project says:

    I see you are in the Yakupov way of handling prospects, ‘let’s make them something they’re not’ ‘break them down and build them up’ etc.

    My favourite has always been when batting coaches would take a good young player, completely change his swing, then huff and puff when he struggles.

  95. OmJo says:

    Looking around at some teams…

    McDavid (102) 34pt lead over 2nd place (Draisaitl, 68)
    Edmonton Oilers: 34-37-6

    Kopitar (88) 33pt lead over 2nd place (Brown, 55 & Doughty, 55)
    LA Kings: 42-28-7

    Hall (85) 36pt lead over 2nd place (Hischier, 49).
    NJ Devils: 40-28-8

    I’m not saying whether all 3 deserve to win the Hart Trophy or not. that’s not my point here. My point is, going off of point differential, how do you argue McDavid is more valuable to his team (note: team, NOT the league) – that misses the playoffs – compared to these two players under the assumption the Kings and Devils make the playoffs?

    There is the on- and off-ice GF% argument, which I could understand. But looking at that essentially eliminates defencemen and and goaltenders from being in contention.

    If the Hart was the league MVP, McDavid would have won it before the season even started. He’s that good. If the Hart was just awarded to the player who scores the most, it would be called the Art Ross Trophy, which McDavid has locked up for years to come.

  96. Pechetr says:

    Pretendergast,

    This blog is about opinions and I expressed mine. You clearly do not agree and that is your right. No need to resort to telling me to “be better.” I did not say Draisaitl was not a good player, I merely commented that at times he has a tendency to reach in with the stick rather than lean on a guy or take that extra step to close the gap.

    As for the Yakupov comment, I did not nor would I compare the two. I am well aware of how Yak was mishandled by this organization.

    Please explain the concept of Jultzing for those of us that may have been misinformed.

    Is that better?

  97. OmJo says:

    Even if Rattie isn’t a lock for 1RW next season, is there any reason to not bring him back for at least one year at under $1M?Could he not play 2RW or even 3RW? How is his skating, play away from the puck, even play away from McDavid.

  98. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): No. That is not what i said. That is merely one component. I don’t want to get into an argument with you about Spector. There is a reason why 99% of the time i watch the opposition feed and he is part of that. So i am biased against him, yes. His arrogance rubs me the wrong way. I am sure it does some players, too

    If you feel differenrly., that’s fine. But i did not say that not voting for players for awards is what makes Edmonton a tough market

    That would be leaving out a lot of other reasons.

    Well you did have a long rant about Spector and then you said; “And no wonder the players find Edmonton tough to play in.”

    I must have read something into it.

  99. ArmchairGM says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    ArmchairGM,

    I’m actually being 100% serious when I say “I think McDavid could reach 80 by himself and 55 will be an average year for him” in response to this.

    The guy is a chance machine, he had two breakaways that he didn’t score on last night and he does it every single game.

    There was an interesting chat during one of the intermissions last night where a talking head was saying that “even with this bump McDavid isn’t a natural goal scorer like Ovechkin or Laine so there is probably a ceiling here.”

    I think this is some faulty logic.

    I don’t think you would find many folks who would say that Gretzky was a more natural goal scorer than say Mike Bossy or Brett Hall, I know I wouldn’t. But the lions share of goal scoring records belong to Gretzky and not to Hall or Bossy. Being touched by the Hockey Gods means you don’t have to be a natural, it means that you have the ability to bend the game to your own will.

    With that in mind underestimating Connor McDavid and his goal scoring prowess seems like a bad idea.

    I agree that McDavid hasn’t hit his ceiling yet, and as Draisaitl gets better (and better linemates) there may be less opposition defensive pressure on McDavid. And his PP numbers could improve too (his 5 PP goals this year have him about 120th in the league), he certainly hasn’t peaked there.

    But McDavid’s current, Nuge-sponsored pace translates to 82, 74-98-172, that with 30% shooting. Is that realistic to project over a season? Lets look at the numbers.

    Since January 1st (nearly half a season) he’s gone 38, 26-31-57 which is a 56-67-123 pace, and his January was terrible by his standards – just 1 goal (and 8 assists) through 10 games.

    Since February 1st (fully 1/3 of the season) he’s been 28, 25-23-48, a 73-67-140 pace. Gulp.

    So lets look at this from another angle: shot rates and shooting percentage. This year McDavid has fired 260 shots in 77 games, or 277 projected to 82. This is significantly lower than league leaders (three guys are over 300 already) and just out of the top-10. Last year he shot 251 times, so this is a 10% increase. If he increases it another 10% next year, he’ll get to 305 shots. Since January 1st he’s taken 150 shots in 38 games (324 pace), and since February first he’s taken 107 in 28 (313 pace). So lets take the median number (305+324+313/3) of 314, I think we can agree that’s reasonable. And he STILL doesn’t shoot as much as he could.

    Shooting percentage is the other part of the equation, and here I think he could improve as well. This season he’s at 15.4%, which trails some of the other big goal-scorers. Again, he’ s not even in the top 10 – even when you filter by games (+40) and goals (+25) he comes in 15th. Looking out a little further (3 years to see repeatability) you’ll see that the top guys for S% are above 17% – familiar names like Laine, Anisimov, Malkin, Scheifele and Marchand all show up here. McDavid is at 17.3% since January 1st (38 games) and 23.4% since February 1st (28 games). Laine’s career S% is 18.4, but erring on the side of caution I’d say that using Malkin/Scheifele’s three-year average of 17.8% is probably more reasonable… 314 shots x 17.8% is 56 goals. Using Paul Byron’s 20.6% from the past 3 years equals 65 McDavid goals, Laine’s 18.4 career equals 58 McDavid goals. And we all know that McDavid isn’t one of these other guys – they’re all human.

    I went through these numbers to prove how ridiculous your statement was, but they really don’t disprove you. It’s hard to believe, but eighty goals could very well be his ceiling.

  100. Wilde says:

    This is dead man walking, right?

  101. Pretendergast says:

    Pechetr:

    I did not say Draisaitl was not a good player, I merely commented that at times he has a tendency to reach in with the stick rather than lean on a guy or take that extra step to close the gap.

    This is not what you said, you said lazy.

    Pechetr:
    As for the Yakupov comment, I did not nor would I compare the two. I am well aware of how Yak was mishandled by this organization.

    You are aware that comment I made was entirely rational, you said break his habits and be more physical. I disagree and used the Yakupov example to show that disagreement on why I don’t think the way you’d like players to be developed is my way.

    Pechetr:
    Please explain the concept of Jultzing for those of us that may have been misinformed.

    Is that better?

    Apologize for the be better if it offended.

    This blog is based in fact, opinions are welcome, but I like to think opinions on players typically have numbers or at least empirical evidence to support claims. Game time all bets are off lol. I believe you shouldn’t make players into something they are not. They got to the show on certain skills, they should utilize those skills, or develop other useful things in the AHL where they belong. There is definitely room for error with my opinion ie.Goalies

    Jultzing is the act of repeatedly making the wrong plays over and over to the point of it being comical as well as expected, hence the term, essentially saying the player is blowing it in a way only they know how.

    I am biased because I hoped that term would die when the player left and had his success elsewhere. I think the term should be a reminder of how the witch hunting Oiler fans love needs to stop. Putting names to things unfortunately can have unintended results, See: Bastard, Magnificent. Nobody on the surface agrees with witch hunting, but many here are biased with players ala Caggiula, with good reason. I subscribe to the idea you should make the most of players by putring them in positions to succeed, which this organization loves to not do.

    Now I went off on my own tangent, I’ll be better 😉

  102. Pretendergast says:

    Pechetr:

    I did not say Draisaitl was not a good player, I merely commented that at times he has a tendency to reach in with the stick rather than lean on a guy or take that extra step to close the gap.

    This is not what you said, you said lazy.

    Pechetr:
    As for the Yakupov comment, I did not nor would I compare the two. I am well aware of how Yak was mishandled by this organization.

    You would then be aware that Yakupov was told to ‘break habits’ and become something he was not. This was my example of how you described JP. He is not physical ala hitting people. If you haven’t noticed, even last game, he held people off down low and drove the net on a few occassions. Defensively I don’t think we can expect him to throw the body around, some guys enjoy it ala Nurse, Lars, Klef, some do not like JP, Nuge, Connor.

    Pechetr:
    Please explain the concept of Jultzing for those of us that may have been misinformed.

    Is that better?

    Apologize for the be better if it offended.

    This blog is based in fact, opinions are welcome, but I like to think opinions on players typically have numbers or at least empirical evidence to support claims. Game time all bets are off. I am of the mind that players got to the show for a reason, that being their skillset. I believe the NHL is not a place to deviate from skillsets to become something they are not. That is what the AHL is for and that’s to turn players into grinders unless they are a very young player who probably just needs to bulk up a bit and learn system play in an easier environment. Obviously this idea has room for error.

    Jultzing is the act of repeatedly making the wrong plays over and over to the point of it being comical as well as expected, hence the term, essentially saying the player is blowing it in a way only they know how.

    I am biased because I hoped that term would die when the player left and had his success elsewhere. I think the term should be a reminder of how witch hunting that this organization loves needs to stop. Putting names to things unfortunately can have unintended results, See: Bastard, Magnificent. I also subscribe to the idea that players should be put in positions to succeed and not fired into the sun because they cannot fulfill a role they weren’t meant for ala Caggiula, Schultz, etc.

    Now I went off on my own tangent, I’ll be better 😉

    Edit: I am awful at formatting on this blog

  103. Pretendergast says:

    Wilde:
    This is dead man walking, right?

    There’s a pale horse coming
    And I’m going to ride it
    I’ll rise in the morning
    My fate decided

  104. godot10 says:

    frjohnk:
    I just dont understand why McDavid gets penalized because the rest of the Oilers without him are worse than the Avs when without MacKinnon and the Devils without Hall.

    The Oilers on paper without McDavid are better than Colorado without MacKinnon and New Jersey without Hall.

    The majority of people would not flip rosters taking out the top guy out of each one. The Oilers would still have Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins.

  105. godot10 says:

    Side:
    I agree with what Debrusk was saying last night.

    The award is for the most valuable member to his team not, the most valuable member to his team that makes the playoffs.

    I feel like this “playoffs” qualifier is added by the same kind of people who think any regular season performance does not matter and only playoff performances matter. Similarly to people who think “how do we know if Hall is good or not if he never played a playoff game?”

    If you look at McDavid’s production and stats compared to the other players on his team and do the same exercise to other teams, it’s pretty clear that McDavid is the most valuable member on his team compared to other candidates.

    Nothing “valuable” has really been accomplished if you don’t make the playoffs. Valuable also means inspiring better performances out of ones teammates. And his team has gone backwards dramatically.

    MacKinnon has more points per game (for the moment, still). He is carrying a worse team on paper on his back. And his team still has a strong chance of making the playoffs. The teams results have improved dramatically. Hall has three of those four things, and is close enough in the 4th.

    Player bonuses were often tied to making the playoffs.

    You suggest that the rest of the team shouldn’t even try. That would make Connor even more valuable to his team. Part of being valuable is that your teammates and coach should give a shit. The players and the coach should feel responsible for McDavid not winning the Hart. They didn’t do their part.

  106. godot10 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): And people will argue points after being eliminated are meaningless. And why didn’t he score 1.6ppg early when the games counted. Never mind he had the flu.

    And round and round we go. But instead of making the case for him our media likes to poohpooh it

    MacKinnon and Hall both had injuries to recover from also.

  107. Professor Q says:

    godot10: The Oilers on paper without McDavid are better than Colorado without MacKinnon and New Jersey without Hall.

    The majority of people would not flip rosters taking out the top guy out of each one.The Oilers would still have Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins.

    I really don’t think this is true at all.

    Colorado managed to trade Duchene and kept a system that held them afloat. MacKinnon is still really good but let’s not pretend that Colorado isn’t either, even if a middle-of-the-pack team. And both New Jersey and Colorado could still miss the playoffs.

    McDavid still is lighting the NHL on fire while this is occurring, while being the heart and soul of Edmonton (the city, team, fans from around the globe, etc.) and being the most exciting and inspiring (and important) part of Oilers games. Yeah, sure, sometimes the supporting cast hasn’t done their part in full. It happens.

    It’s almost like you hate the Oilers and McDavid, too. 😂

    The award is still technically for regular season performance, not the potential of playoffs nor the MVP to their team in the playoffs. That’s the Conn Smythe Trophy.

  108. godot10 says:

    Professor Q: I really don’t think this is true at all.

    Colorado managed to trade Duchene and kept a system that held them afloat. MacKinnon is still really good but let’s not pretend that Colorado isn’t either, even if a middle-of-the-pack team. And both New Jersey and Colorado could still miss the playoffs.

    McDavid still is lighting the NHL on fire while this is occurring, while being the heart and soul of Edmonton (the city, team, fans from around the globe, etc.) and being the most exciting and inspiring (and important) part of Oilers games. Yeah, sure, sometimes the supporting cast hasn’t done their part in full. It happens.

    It’s almost like you hate the Oilers and McDavid, too.

    The award is still technically for regular season performance, not the potential of playoffs nor the MVP to their team in the playoffs. That’s the Conn Smythe Trophy.

    The major purpose of the regular season is to make the playoffs. McDavid will have failed, while MacKinnon and Hall and Kopitar may succeed.

  109. digger50 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Is Kassian ok? He’s played with zero passion for months now. To me he looks like a player who’s contemplating walking away from the game, but I’m probably reading too much into a guy slumping.

    I was interested in a Kassian discussion the other day.

    But “ he was signed for too much due to a strong playoff run” and “he’s paid too much for a fourth line RW is all we got to.

    The problem is these are good observations of “what is” but don’t tell us anything about “why”

    How does a guy show what he’s got in the play offs, even go on five game tear and then become invisible. Where has his game gone? Attitude, chirpy? Why is he pasted to 4RW?
    Maybe that’s where is most valuable – but then why the payday? What did the GM see that the coach does not support?

    We do know last game it was stated he had a shoulder issue from that hit. But that does not explain his disinterest for some time now.

  110. N64 says:

    Confused:
    According to Elliott, Jimmy Schuldt is likely to become a free agent shortly.

    “SCHULDT! OFFICE!

  111. --hudson-- says:

    Todd’s post practice presser:
    – last night was unacceptable but we played strong recently
    – does the team have the right attitude ending the season?
    – thoughts on new goaltender interference process
    – are players aware McDavid is in the scoring race
    – Spector asks about McDavid and the Hart, guess he missed yesterdays presser, before going off during the intermission (smh)

    Source video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7AlsqjU4Do
    ————————————————–
    Q: I guess the notion now is just to kind of show that yesterday was the exception rather than the norm of how things have been going around here for the last couple weeks…
    A: Yes, you know, when we look at our segments of games, I think ten of our past twelve, I thought we played pretty strong games. We didn’t win all of them but we were, you know, the input into the game was what we’re looking for. Last night was obviously unacceptable, it was not a very good night for us in a lot of areas, but we’ll see if we can rebound now heading out on the road, and try and finish the right way.

    Q: Todd, just along those lines, I mean obviously the finish line, you know, where it is, it’s not like the playoffs where you don’t know what it is. I know you always talk to the guys, but you talk to them a bit after practice, are they looking at the finish line the way you would hope they would be looking at it with five to go?
    A: Yes if, you know, from the trade deadline on I think we’re working towards the finish line, and you’ve got to include the body of work after that. We’ve gone to, you know, we’ve had a schedule that’s been hard on us, like every other team in the league, but we’ve responded pretty well. We’ve been able to improve our penalty kill, we’re still working on the power play, we’ve had good efforts from a lot of players, some guys are really taking their game up. I think if we paint that three-week period with last night’s paint brush, it’s not fair to the players and the game they gave us. Now that’s not an excuse, that’s not letting them off the hook, because we were hard on them for their performance last night, and we’ll expect to see a rebound game as early as tomorrow.

    Q: Todd, tonight the new process goes into place as far as how the NHL evaluates (goaltender interference). Are you encouraged that will maybe help solve the root of the issue?
    A: Yeah there was a lot of discussion, and a lot of really good hockey people shared their thoughts and ideas, and they’ve adopted a way, and it’s a tough job. It’s a tough being an official or an off ice official, as they have a tough job so, I’m sure it will be a good thing.

    Q: What’s your sense of how engaged the players are with McDavid chasing a scoring championship for a second year in a row?
    A: Now you’re talking about our players, our team, our group? Oh they’re aware but they, you know, they’re aware of it, and they want him to have success, and get there and, you know, while we’re doing that we have to perform well as a team. It can’t become about one individual; Connor will tell you that flat out. So, we’ve got to also commit to the defensive side of the puck as a group, and if we do that we may get more scoring chances, and be able to help them get it, then we do otherwise.

    Q (Spector): Speaking of awards, the Hart Trophy debate’s sort of going around the hockey world, and where it concerns Connor is the question as to whether a player, whose team has been sort of out of contention for as long as his has, merits as much voting power as other guys. Is that holding something against Connor? Is that fair? What are your thoughts on that?
    A: Well if I was voting and had no attachment to the Oilers, obviously I do and I’m not voting, I would consider Connor McDavid as one of the candidates… and why? Because, you know, I think he’s been the most valuable player in the league, he’s proven that from a scoring perspective, also a defensive perspective. He drives our team, the percentage of point production in comparison to teammates, and league wide I think is exceptional. Five-on-five points, plays in every situation, has played 27-28-29 minutes a night, you know they, some of the other potential candidates may not be in the playoffs either, and I don’t think that you punish individuals for that, but again I don’t have a vote, and I am attached to the Oilers.

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Man to man D doesn’t seem to make sense when the league is moving to speed skill and youth where players have more capability to beat guys one on one. And in a time when stick technology gives every player a good shot.

    It might have worked when grinding and older bigger slower players were the thing. The power game.

    They need a coach that motivates and rolls with change quickly. That motivates with positivity and not old school ways – I don’t think that will work with today’s youth and it is an increasingly young league.

    Discipline always, but there are different ways to high level performance.

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Rattie is a classic tweener. He’s an offense mostly player but isn’t dangerous enough to be a passenger with good players. There are few that can be that. As in Panarin.

    They should be playing him lower in the lineup to see if he can still score there. If he can’t help a line that is bigger, defensively decent and needs some O spark I don’t see a fit that is better than say Vanek.

    Connor needs 23 YO JP in the big picture. Assuming he ever finds his scoring touch. I think he will?

  114. Wilde says:

    –hudson–,

    The whole “Oilers were playing strong recently” is so scary.

    They were never controlling play for any extended period of time during the 7-2-1 run.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Confused:
    Bag of Pucks,

    LeBrun is all over Carlson sign and trade.

    how about PC lets them keep him!

    Talbot at (50%) for by.

    I’d do this in a New York minute. And add Khudobin at 2M x 2. Holtby would have 2 years left on contract I think and at his age may be the guy for a while until someone emerges.

    He has been a top 5 goaler the last few years and is 28. Due diligence of course.

    The cap can handle it next year and I think would make the most difference to success. And Holtby is a prairie boy so that fits the Oiler MO.

    Then year after unload Russell and maybe Sekera and add more.

  116. Wilde says:

    You guys, I found a stat where Milan Lucic is a top 6 forward.

    Total, all strength, individual high danger chances.

    He’s had 94, good for 55th in the league.

    Unfortunately, it’s only resulted in 10 goals.

    Eberle has 25 in 95.

  117. --hudson-- says:

    Wilde:
    –hudson–,

    The whole “Oilers were playing strong recently” is so scary.

    They were never controlling play for any extended period of time during the 7-2-1 run.

    I agree with that. The last time I remember seeing the team play like a team was before Christmas. Recently, with exception to McDavid’s line, it looks like a bunch of new players not knowing where their teammates are or what the plan is.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m going to the game tomorrow. Taking my 8 YO hockey mad son. I’m really looking forward to seeing Connor live again.

    For those that haven’t seen him it is a must. As many have said it’s quite different seeing him live. As in shocking how good he is, and how lucky Oiler fans are.

    There is no question in my mind who the most valuable player is. But winning the Art Ross means more to his legacy, I’m so happy he’s taken the lead and hope he holds it and even wins the Rocket.

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    who: I think 55 is pretty low.
    40 is probably the new norm for Mcdavid. And if Nuge stays on that line he should hit 25 fairly easily. 65 seems more like baseline to me.
    Also would like to respond to all the people gushing about Nuge with Mcdavid. Yes he looks good there but I don’t think he’s playing any better than Drai did. The difference is that Drai is going to create more offense from the 2nd line than Nuge will.

    Your point about the goals is good, as long as both players continue their trajectory.

    Re: Nuge & McDavid – I don’t think Nuge is getting more points next to McDavid than Draisaitl would be, but McDavid is absolutely crushing it next to Nuge – moreso than any 10-game stretch when he played with Draisaitl. No telling exactly how much of this has to do with RNH, but seeing two cerebral players like that together is a joy to watch. Also, many of us have been pulling for Nuge for some time now, and were concerned about another lost trade for a winger, so to see their success together seemingly eliminate that possibility is a huge relief to many fans.

  120. Professor Q says:

    godot10: The major purpose of the regular season is to make the playoffs.McDavid will have failed, while MacKinnon and Hall and Kopitar may succeed.

    The reward for making the playoffs is making the playoffs and having a chance for the Stanley Cup.

    It has no bearing on how valuable a single player is to their team, nor to the league itself, other than that.

  121. flyfish1168 says:

    Just read David Staples article on MVP voting. Yes, I am an Oiler and McDavid fan. But my argument is Connor deserves the award more than most playoff teams MVP. Most good teams that are in the playoffs have a better core to support their MVP. Without Connor, we would be 31 in almost all Offensive categories and we would probably be 31st place in the standing. My other argument would be look at what happened to the team during that stretch when Connor was playing sick. I don’t believe we won may games when Connor was completely shut out. He is the League MVP. Another measure would be, his jersey sales and visiting team sales, that helps teams and league revenues. So NHL and sports writer pay the man some respect and vote Connor for MVP. JMHO

  122. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    You guys, I found a stat where Milan Lucic is a top 6 forward.

    Total, all strength, individual high danger chances.

    He’s had 94, good for 55th in the league.

    Unfortunately, it’s only resulted in 10 goals.

    Eberle has 25 in 95.

    Essentially all of his ice time has been with McDavid or Drasaitl or both. How could he not rank top 6 there?

  123. godot10 says:

    Professor Q: The reward for making the playoffs is making the playoffs and having a chance for the Stanley Cup.

    It has no bearing on how valuable a single player is to their team, nor to the league itself, other than that.

    How can one be valuable if nothing of value has been accomplished?

  124. Professor Q says:

    godot10: How can one be valuable if nothing of value has been accomplished?

    How can a swallow fly if not for the wind?

  125. godot10 says:

    flyfish1168:
    Just read David Staples article on MVP voting. Yes, I am an Oiler and McDavid fan. But my argument is Connor deserves the award more than most playoff teams MVP. Most good teams that are in the playoffs have a better core to support their MVP.

    Not true of Colorado, New Jersey, or arguably LA…who sport three of main contenders for the Hart, one who still has more points per game than McDavid.

  126. Wilde says:

    godot10: Essentially all of his ice time has been with McDavid or Drasaitl or both.How could he not rank top 6 there?

    Exactly, basically this illustrates that he’s done less with more than almost every forward in the league.

  127. Wilde says:

    The league as a whole, is shooting 13.8% ish on their high danger chances this year, by the way.

    So if Milan Lucic was an ‘average’ finisher cashing ‘average’ high danger chances, he’d have at least 4 more goals.

    Unfortunately he’s far worse than league average even though he’s working with 97-laced HDC’s.

  128. flyfish1168 says:

    godot10: Not true of Colorado, New Jersey, or arguably LA…who sport three of main contenders for the Hart, one who still has more points per game than McDavid.

    We can all cherry pick one statistic. But when you look at the total body of work it isn’t close.

  129. Harpers Hair says:

    Important to remember the Hart is not for the best player in the game but to the player who is most important to his teams success. With McDavid, the Oilers are a mediocre team and, without McDavid, they are a mediocre team.

    Marcel Dionne is one of the top 100 players of all time, won multiple trophies and other awards, is in the Hockey Hall of Fame, currently ranks 5th among the all time NHL goal scorers but never won a Hart trophy because the teams he played for had virtually no playoff success.

    Results matter.

  130. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Important to remember the Hart is not for the best player in the game but to the player who is most important to his teams success. With McDavid, the Oilers are a mediocre team and, without McDavid, they are a mediocre team.

    Marcel Dionne is one of the top 100 players of all time, won multiple trophies and other awards, is in the Hockey Hall of Fame, currently ranks 5th among the all time NHL goal scorers but never won a Hart trophy because the teams he played for had virtually no playoff success.

    Results matter.

    I think Gretzky dominating the NHL during that time actually had a hand in both. Dionne never really got that close to Gretzky status, sorry…

  131. knighttown says:

    Pretendergast:

    Jultzing is the act of repeatedly making the wrong plays over and over to the point of it being comical as well as expected, hence the term, essentially saying the player is blowing it in a way only they know how.

    Yeah…no. Jultzing was very much Justin Schultz’s nonchalant way of engaging a player. Usually it was with one hand one the stick and straight legs. It was completely infuriating because a professional always at least LOOKS like they’re giving it their all. A Jultz to me is an especially revolting lack of effort or even a play where the optics are a lack of effort even if he is expending energy.

    I’m picturing Justin Faulk last week on Abergs goal when he saunters out of the corner a day late and a dollar short and then feebly drops his stick trying to make a stick check.

    Maybe you’re thinking of a Nultz named after Nick Shultz?

    And now I’m sad thinking about how long the Oilers have sucked.

  132. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I didn’t like the idea of Nuge and McD together when there were whispers about it pre-season

    – That said, in a small sample size wow!

    – Nuge and McD together solve for a lot :

    1) You don’t need to go find an expensive other winger this offseason: Rattie-type is fine
    2) The temptation to move Nuge is tempered by the results
    3) You can focus on getting the right wingers for Drai: be it Pool. Kailer, other internal or RFA
    4) Having 3 C’s that can move around in terms of roles and linemates gives Coach a lot of options, that is unique amongst NHL rosters: they can be split up, moved down to be C when other wingers struggle, be part of super-lines, etc
    5) Strome can either sign for a reasonable extension as 3C, or they can find someone else

    – I had always thought Strome was the cheap replacement for Nuge

    – I had always thought that they would then trade Nuge for a RHD: but now not so sure.

    – Its a good problem to have: signed players that are making it hard to move them

  133. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair,

    The Oilers this year are not a mediocre team without McDavid.

    They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

    There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

    That’s a +172/-262 goal split

    Aka a -90 goal differential team.

    The Buffalo Sabres are -73.

    Just a laughable assertion.

  134. Harpers Hair says:

    Professor Q: I think Gretzky dominating the NHL during that time actually had a hand in both. Dionne never really got that close to Gretzky status, sorry…

    Certainly a factor but Dionne did beat Gretzky for the Art Ross in 79/80. Just an example of how an all time great player can not win the Hart without playoff success.

  135. Harpers Hair says:

    Wilde:
    Harpers Hair,

    The Oilers this year are not a mediocre team without McDavid.

    They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

    There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

    That’s a +172/-262 goal split

    Aka a -90 goal differential team.

    The Buffalo Sabres are -73.

    Just a laughable assertion.

    Wilde:
    Harpers Hair,

    The Oilers this year are not a mediocre team without McDavid.

    They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

    There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

    That’s a +172/-262 goal split

    Aka a -90 goal differential team.

    The Buffalo Sabres are -73.

    Just a laughable assertion.

    Looks pretty mediocre to me.

  136. OmJo says:

    flyfish1168:
    Just read David Staples article on MVP voting. Yes, I am an Oiler and McDavid fan. But my argument is Connor deserves the award more than most playoff teams MVP. Most good teams that are in the playoffs have a better core to support their MVP. Without Connor, we would be 31 in almost all Offensive categories and we would probably be 31st place in the standing. My other argument would be look at what happened to the team during that stretch when Connor was playing sick. I don’t believe we won may games when Connor was completely shut out. He is the League MVP.Another measure would be, his jersey sales and visiting team sales, that helps teams and league revenues. So NHL and sports writer pay the man so respect and vote Connor for MVP. JMHO

    New Jersey Devil’s don’t fit that team with a better core. If McDavid was the only player in the league with a 30+ point lead on his own team you might have an argument but both Hall and Kopitar are doing it and pushing their teams into the playoffs.

    I think the people voting will see it this way:

    Without Hall, the Devil’s aren’t a playoff contender. With Hall, they are.
    Without MacKinnon, the Avalanche aren’t a playoff contender. Witb MacKinnon, they are.
    Without McDavid, the Oilers aren’t a playoff contender. With him, they aren’t either.

    This doesn’t mean McDavid is at fault. I think some fans might see him not winning the Hart as him being indirectly blamed for the team missing the playoffs, and therefore getting defensive about him. The only reason this team isn’t going to be the first team in NHL history to finish 31st is because of 97.

    Every team has a MVP. McDavid is the most talented of those MVPs, but his impact has unfortunately not been enough to overcome the deficiencies in Chiarelli’s team building and McLellans systems.

    He’s definitely the league MVP.

  137. OmJo says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks pretty mediocre to me.

    I think he means they’re not good enough to even be considered mediocre.

  138. OmJo says:

    knighttown: Maybe you’re thinking of a Nultz named after Nick Shultz?

    I love this fanbase.

  139. OmJo says:

    Wilde: Exactly, basically this illustrates that he’s done less with more than almost every forward in the league.

    When Ty Rattie said his dad could score 100 goals playing with McDavid, somebody tweeted Ty Rattie’s dad > Milan Lucic.

  140. OmJo says:

    Someone = Ryan Batty

  141. Harpers Hair says:

    OmJo: New Jersey Devil’s don’t fit that team with a better core. If McDavid was the only player in the league with a 30+ point lead on his own team you might have an argument but both Hall and Kopitar are doing it and pushing their teams into the playoffs.

    I think the people voting will see it this way:

    Without Hall, the Devil’s aren’t a playoff contender. With Hall, they are.
    Without MacKinnon, the Avalanche aren’t a playoff contender. Witb MacKinnon, they are.
    Without McDavid, the Oilers aren’t a playoff contender. With him, they aren’t either.

    This doesn’t mean McDavid is at fault. I think some fans might see him not winning the Hart as him being indirectly blamed for the team missing the playoffs, and therefore getting defensive about him. The only reason this team isn’t going to be the first team in NHL history to finish 31st is because of 97.

    Every team has a MVP. McDavid is the most talented of those MVPs, but his impact has unfortunately not been enough to overcome the deficiencies in Chiarelli’s team building and McLellans systems.

    He’s definitely the league MVP.

    This. Although best player in the league, of which there is little doubt, doesn’t necessarily equate to MVP.

  142. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Looks pretty mediocre to me.

    ——————–

    mediocre

    [mee-dee-oh-ker]

    adjective
    1.
    of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate:

    ——————-

    Would you consider 31st by a large margin, out of 31 teams, to be “neither good nor bad”?

  143. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    For the record if the Avs, Devils, Kings make the playoffs I think the MVP should come from one of those teams.McDavid would be 5th or 6th behind those 3 and Kucherov, probably ahead of Malkin but close.

    Lindsay should be his or Mackinnon’s though.

  144. Harpers Hair says:

    Wilde: ——————–

    mediocre

    [mee-dee-oh-ker]

    adjective
    1.
    of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad; barely adequate:

    ——————-

    Would you consider 31st by a large margin, out of 31 teams, to be “neither good nor bad”?

    Well, we really don’t know if they would be behind VCR, ARZ or BUF…but point taken.
    In any event, Connor hasn’t been able to take them to the next level just like Dionne was never able to do on multiple bad teams. It’s a thing.

    For the record, if I had a vote I would pick McDavid but I can also see why the actual voters wouldn’t.
    There’s a lot of precedent for it.

  145. knighttown says:

    godot10: Not true of Colorado, New Jersey, or arguably LA…who sport three of main contenders for the Hart, one who still has more points per game than McDavid.

    People are really twisting themselves in knots excluding people from the Hart candidacy.

    -You have to make the playoffs. When that became the “standard” 5 teams missed the playoffs. Now 15 do. You are excluding half the teams in the NHL for the rest of time?
    – next the player cannot play with anyone good but unfortunately most of the good teams have good players. Can’t take a Bruin, Pen, Lightning, Jet or Pred. So down to about 10 teams you can pick from.
    – they have to be top 10 in NHL scoring so you can exclude Washington, Minnesota, Vegas, Columbus, Anaheim, San Jose and Toronto.

    So see ya McDavid and Gaudreau. Clause 1.

    See you Kooch, Malkin, Wheeler and Marchand. Clause 2…you’ve got Olympians on your teams. Buh -bye.

    So this leaves MacKinnon, Giroux , Kopitar and Hall.

    Hall should be safe as long as he makes the playoffs. No Olympians on that roster.

    Kopitar should be ok too except wait! Someone is executing the rarely used clause 3…Olympic goalie/defenseman clause. Oh no! He has both Doughty and Quick and we know you can’t be “the most valuable in the league if you aren’t even clearly the most valuable on your team” (TM). See you Anze.

    As for Nate. We excluded Malkin because Sid and Phil were too close to him so with Rantanen right there do we exclude Nate too? but Rantanen is right there too. No sir! If the linemate is foreign and young then clearly he fits the “being dragged by a Canadian Olympian” clause. So Malkin can’t get it because he’s a product of Crosby but MacKInnon can get it because he’s dragging Rantanen. Got it?

    What to do about Giroux? Voracek is 10 back. He is an Olympian but it was from a Shiite country. It’s close but I’d say you gotta use the Canadian Olympian clause again and assume Voracek would be collecting food stamps if it wasn’t for Giroux.

    Hall, MacKinnon, Giroux.

    Gentlemen and that 1 lady, your 2018 Hart trophy is awarded to the player from a team ranked between 8th and 16th (not 17th for sure!!!!!). The player must be in the top 10 in scoring and has to play on a team whose second best player I’ve never heard of.

    This years winner, Taylor Hall!

    God people are dumb.

  146. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair: Well, we really don’t know if they would be behind VCR, ARZ or BUF…but point taken.
    In any event, Connor hasn’t been able to take them to the next level just like Dionne was never able to do on multiple bad teams. It’s a thing.

    For the record, if I had a vote I would pick McDavid but I can also see why the actual voters wouldn’t.
    There’s a lot of precedent for it.

    Do you have a specific criticism of my estimate for our goal differential without 97?

    “They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

    There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

    That’s a +172/-262 goal split”

  147. Harpers Hair says:

    Wilde: Do you have a specific criticism of my estimate for our goal differential without 97?

    “They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

    There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

    That’s a +172/-262 goal split”

    No I don’t but that is far from the only factor in the voting. It’s abundantly obvious in the standings that a supernova McDavid cannot carry a team on his back but there could be a perception that MacKinnon and Hall can. We’ll see.

  148. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair: No I don’t but that is far from the only factor in the voting. It’s abundantly obvious in the standings that a supernova McDavid cannot carry a team on his back but there could be a perception that MacKinnon and Hall can. We’ll see.

    Sure, I don’t care about the Hart.

    I just take the issue with this statement which is a popular one right now:

    Harpers Hair:

    With McDavid, the Oilers are a mediocre team and, without McDavid, they are a mediocre team.

  149. knighttown says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    For the record if the Avs, Devils, Kings make the playoffs I think the MVP should come from one of those teams.McDavid would be 5th or 6th behind those 3 and Kucherov, probably ahead of Malkin but close.

    Lindsay should be his or Mackinnon’s though.

    You’re falling into that PHWA trap of narrowing the criteria too much. It’s not a coincidence that you’re candidates all come from bubble teams. You’re automatically excluding the top teams because the guy has help. And you’re excluding the bottom group because of the fallacy that you couldn’t have value if you finished 17th because you would have missing the playoffs anyway.

    In basketball you’d be excluding Stef and KD every year because they have each other.

    In baseball you’d exclude Mike Trout who is unanimously the best in the game because he’s just one of 25 on that roster.

    For Connor McDavid to reach your bar of dragging his team into a wild card he’d have to turn a -26 goal differential to a +20. That’s 46 mor goals for since he can’t stop pucks.

    So for him to be considered he’d have to be at about 150 points when this season is over.

    This is the most important individual award in the sport and it matters when we compare players across eras. Do we really want to look back in 30 years and say we had a top 3 player of all time in full bloom and we chose to give the key individual award to someone we know isn’t as good (and didn’t play as well) because of some semantic argument?

  150. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’d do this in a New York minute. And add Khudobin at 2M x 2. Holtby would have 2 years left on contract I think and at his age may be the guy for a while until someone emerges.

    He has been a top 5 goaler the last few years and is 28. Due diligence of course.

    The cap can handle it next year and I think would make the most difference to success. And Holtby is a prairie boy so that fits the Oiler MO.

    Then year after unload Russell and maybe Sekera and add more.

    Why would anyone trade for Carlson? He’s a UFA in a couple months. Maybe a 5th round pick.

  151. knighttown says:

    The other factor that is never talked about is that no one gets defended like McDavid. I’d love to hear a coach elaborate on how they game plan but I’ve never seen anyone else get marked 150 feet from the other teams net. It’s the equivalent of Barry Bonds being intentionally walked 100 times a season.

    That alone tells you who the best player in the world is.

  152. Harpers Hair says:

    Wilde: Sure, I don’t care about the Hart.

    I just take the issue with this statement which is a popular one right now:

    Okay then, they’re a bad team with or without.

  153. Gret99zky says:

    OmJo: Every team has a MVP. McDavid is the most talented of those MVPs, but his impact has unfortunately not been enough to overcome the deficiencies in Chiarelli’s team building and McLellans systems.

    He’s definitely the league MVP.

    This is a very good explanation of the situation. Well done.

  154. Gret99zky says:

    knighttown,

    “This year’s winner Taylor Hall.” post above is epic. Well done.

  155. Wilde says:

    Harpers Hair: Okay then, they’re a bad team with or without.

    Still no!

    With him, they’re a -26 team, without him they’re a -90 team.

    Say it with me:

    Sixty-four goals matters.

  156. deardylan says:

    Looking into the muddy water here is hard its because I am on the Big island of Hawai’i and the water is crystal clear, sky is blue, every sunset is a miracle when I can listen to my Oilers here in the middle of the Pacific, late afternoon and cheer on McDavid +1.

    Sometimes I wonder if… the Oilers team reads Lowetide’s site and comments section. How would we know?

    1. I wonder if…only goal left this season is to have their leader win as many crowns as they can. A great team puts the C in Captain. I give them 10/10 for this effort. Anything less is uncivilized.

    2. I wonder if… sometimes the Oilers players read this section to see how many fans will hate them when they lose and love them when they win. And what percentage of fans will love them when they lose and love them the same even when they win.

    3. I wonder what the players family says to them when they come home after a tough loss. I wonder what Todds and Chia family say after a non-playoff year? I wonder what Lowetide’s family to him after a wild flurry of comments after a tough loss like the last one?

    4. I wonder if they are listening to Connor McDavid suggestions for what to do with the team next year. A great coach/GM puts the C in Captain.

    5. I wonder if.. OP will continue to be Optimistic Pouzar in the 2018/2019 season. Well I don’t wonder about that–that is just who he is no matter rain or shine or muddy waters.

    All I know for sure is…

    97. In Connor I trust.

    99. If this season you saw Muddy Water in the Oilers Stanley Cup Bowl – what would you do to get it to settle?

    a) Boil It
    b) Shake it
    c) Rattle it
    o) Roll it
    i) Beet it
    l) BBQ it
    e) Go on a complaint fast
    r) Ask for slo mo review
    s) Zamboni It
    g ) Other?
    o!) Ask Connor?

  157. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    knighttown,

    Not really. I don’t follow the media at all. Yesterday’s Spec rant aside I don’t read about hockey or listen to it anywhere but here and on the game feeds.

    So I am not falling into any trap

    And you have my reasons wrong.

    Top teams are not excluded.

    Who is Winnipeg’s MVP candidate? Wheeler? Maybe. Dubious. Deep team.

    Nashville’s? D and G by committee.

    Vegas? The coach?

    Out East
    Boston? Marchand if he had not missed 25 pct of the season.

    Penguins? Malkin but Crosby and Kessel are also top 10 scorers

    Tampa? Kucherov is in my top 5 but Stamkos and Hedman help a lot.

    Bubble teams like the Avs, Kings, Devils who have one clearly outperforming player therefore rise up.

    Michael Jordan should have been MVP every year he played basketball in the 90s except his baseball half season. But they gave the award to Malone and Barkley sometimes. Did that tarnish his legacy? Nope. He is the GOAT.

    Not winning the Hart this year won’t dent McDavid’s. Rather it will cement his case for future Harts when the team returns to the playoffs.

  158. Georges says:

    Wilde:
    Harpers Hair,

    The Oilers this year are not a mediocre team without McDavid.

    They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.

    There’s been 77 hours of hockey played by the Oilers.

    That’s a +172/-262 goal split

    Aka a -90 goal differential team.

    The Buffalo Sabres are -73.

    Just a laughable assertion.

    “They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.”

    Where did you get your numbers?

  159. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    To add:

    Mackinnon
    Kucherov
    Kopitar
    Hall
    McDavid
    Malkin
    Bergeron
    Wheeler
    Subban
    Giroux
    might be a top 10 in no particular order. I may be missing some.

    Playoffs for a team that was bad last year are one factor that does matter to me.

    Thus Jersey–Hall goes from 50pts to 90pts and leads them to the postseason
    LA-Kopitar goes from 50pts to 90pts and does the same
    Avs- Ditto Mackinnon.

    Those are MVP worthy seasons.

    Kucherov’s is MVP worthy, too but he suffers from recency bias working against him.

    McDavid’s season is also MVP worthy and he is the most valuable player in the league but semantics or whatever the trophy has always gone to the most valuable one season performance. This is not new.

    So although no one is more valuable in the League, I won’t consider it robbery if Connor does not win this year.

    When he puts up 125pts and drags the Oil to the playoffs next year he will win another Hart

  160. Wilde says:

    Georges: “They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.”

    Where did you get your numbers?

    My ass.

    Spokane just tied the game at 1, JAD.

    Yamamoto may or may not have a point on the play.

  161. Wilde says:

    Goal was unassisted, Yamamoto remains pointless early in the game, as I write this Portland scores on the powerplay.

  162. Bruce McCurdy says:

    who:
    Would love to see Kharia on Drais left wing for the next 5 games. He seems like one of the few Oiler forwards who has any poise with the puck.
    Sure he commits the odd turnover,but he can also make a play, in all zones. How many Oiler forwards, other than the big three, can we say that about?

    Nice idea, I’d rather see Draisaitl with Khaira than the defensive black hole that is Caggiula. Khaira has been written in pen at 4C since Letestu left, but he has real potential as a top 9 LW whcih might cover off some of his weaknesses (deep d-zone coverage, shitty on faceoffs) while taking advantage of his strengthss (strong on the walls, heavy shot, poised with the puck as you correctly point out).

    For now he seems to be getting pigeon holed, maybe a different coach would see him differently. That said, TMc probably deserves some credit for Khaira.s growth as a player.

  163. Harpers Hair says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    To add:

    Mackinnon
    Kucherov
    Kopitar
    Hall
    McDavid
    Malkin
    Bergeron
    Wheeler
    Subban
    Giroux
    might be a top 10 in no particular order. I may be missing some.

    Playoffs for a team that was bad last year are one factor that does matter to me.

    Thus Jersey–Hall goes from 50pts to 90pts and leads them to the postseason
    LA-Kopitar goes from 50pts to 90pts and does the same
    Avs- Ditto Mackinnon.

    Those are MVP worthy seasons.

    Kucherov’s is MVP worthy, too but he suffers from recency bias working against him.

    McDavid’s season is also MVP worthy and he is the most valuable player in the league but semantics or whatever the trophy has always gone to the most valuable one season performance. This is not new.

    So although no one is more valuable in the League, I won’t consider it robbery if Connor does not win this year.

    When he puts up 125pts and drags the Oil to the playoffs next year he will win another Hart

    Your post led me to look at Malkin’s season thus far.

    3rd in goals scored with 42. 3rd in points with 93. 4 fewer games than McDavid while playing almost 3m minutes a game less.

    What a fantastic season.

  164. Georges says:

    Wilde: My ass.

    Yep

    Say it with me:

    Sixty-four goals matters.

  165. Wilde says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    McLellan has a hair-trigger detonator for most of the lineup.

    Then there’s Khaira as 4C.

    18 and 16 have massively better results in shots and chances together than apart, but they’ve never gone back to it.

    It’s even been long enough to creep into goals(46% Strome without Khaira, 40% Khaira without Strome) which makes it even more confusing, because Todd usually follows the goal share.

  166. Wilde says:

    Georges: Yep

    Say it with me:

    Sixty-four goals matters.

    My ass matters!!

  167. Georges says:

    Wilde: My ass matters!!

    Ha! Good game.

  168. Wilde says:

    Georges: “They’re a +2.24/-3.39 per hour team without McDavid.”

    Where did you get your numbers?

    In all seriousness Georges, I was using naturalstattrick.com’s line tool at the time I was writing, and just grabbed Nathan Walker’s half hour without/30 seconds with or whatever it was and used the fourth row as a proxy for the team without McDavid as the basis for a ballpark, then did a more thorough double-check later with the intention of editing or redacting my comment if I was way off, but I wasn’t.

    I rationalised my low-effort calculations by the fact that it’s an entirely unscientific and raw way to even evaluate the situation in the first place, and that no perfect arithmetic is going to pull into the realm of the respectable or empirical.

    I then rationalised making a joke as a reply to you because this wasn’t worth typing out.

    I then then rationalised typing it out anyways because my time isn’t valuable.

    Why did I type this out?

  169. deardylan says:

    Wilde your are starting to sound like namesake…Oscar W

    Its Sunset in Hawaii and Time for Theme Time Radio, Themes, Schemes and Muddy Waters

    Listen to that keyboard at 1.44 and Forget All Your Chia Seeds of Discontent….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRjBkNYnlik

    “I’d Rather Drink Muddy Water”

    Baby, we got to have a little talk
    I ought to pack up my things and walk
    I know a dollar goes from hand to hand
    But before I let you go from man to man
    I’d rather drink muddy water
    Sleep out in a hollow log

    I work for you like a Georgia mule
    My friends all laughed, called me a fool
    Your kisses are as sweet as can be
    But before I let you make a fool out of me
    I’d rather drink muddy water
    Lay down and sleep in a hollow log

    I love you baby, but you won’t be fair
    You don’t know how to be on the square
    Have your fun baby, if you must
    But before I’ll have a woman that I cannot trust
    I’d rather drink muddy water
    Sleep out in a hollow log
    Muddy water

    Yes, Baby, we got to have a little talk
    Said I ought to pack up my things and walk
    I know a dollar goes from hand to hand
    But before I let you go from man to man
    I’d rather drink muddy water
    Sleep out in a hollow log

    I work for you like a Georgia mule
    My friends all laughed and they called me a fool
    Your kisses are as sweet as can be
    But before I let you make a fool out of me
    I’d rather drink muddy water
    Sleep in a hollow log

    Because I love you baby, but you won’t be fair
    You don’t know how to be on the square
    Have your fun baby, if you must
    But before I’ll have a woman that I can’t trust
    I’d rather drink muddy water
    Drink muddy water
    Drink muddy water
    Sleep out in a hollow log
    Muddy water

  170. Wilde says:

    deardylan,

    I prefer to wallow in despair when she’s gone. (The playoffs)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIdnpjceg9A

  171. Georges says:

    Going back to Gretzky Year 1 (79-80), only 16 of 37 Art Ross winners have won the Hart.

    4 goalie wins. 1 defenseman. 32 forwards. So half the time they’ve chosen forwards, voters went with someone other than the scoring title winner.

    In Gretzky’s first season with LAK, he had 168 points in 78 games. He had a hand in 45% of the Kings’ goals. He won the Hart over Art Ross winner Lemieux, who had 199 points in 76 games. His 57% (!) share of the Penguins’ goals was not valuable enough apparently.

    And McDavid’s 46% share of the Oilers’ goals this season? In superstar land, no biggie.

  172. Nix says:

    I’ve never seen so much ridiculous over thinking and leaps in logic over a trophy.

    It’s simple.. In any sport, in any league, in any year, when the term ‘MVP’ is spoken, does ANY average fan think ‘oh, that’s the guy that did something rad because he’s way superduper good and also his teammates did this that and the other thing with the help of a talented coach and relevant systems and also the full moon was in bloom under the cats eye when the chickens guts spelled out the gods whims of fancy while Oracles wept on a bleeding star’…

    NO.

    They think ‘he was the best player that year’.

    And they are correct.

  173. Side says:

    godot10: Nothing “valuable” has really been accomplished if you don’t make the playoffs.Valuable also means inspiring better performances out of ones teammates. And his team has gone backwards dramatically.

    MacKinnon has more points per game (for the moment, still).He is carrying a worse team on paper on his back.And his team still has a strong chance of making the playoffs.The teams results have improved dramatically.Hall has three of those four things, and is close enough in the 4th.

    Player bonuses were often tied to making the playoffs.

    You suggest that the rest of the team shouldn’t even try.That would make Connor even more valuable to his team.Part of being valuable is that your teammates and coach should give a shit.The players and the coach should feel responsible for McDavid not winning the Hart.They didn’t do their part.

    I thought the team going backwards was mostly Todd’s fault though?

    So if we’re placing all of the weight on accomplishments in terms of value, how come the Hart trophy isn’t given to the best player on the Stanley Cup winning team?

    Where do I suggest the rest of the team shouldn’t even try? Do we really think the rest of the team is giving up so McDavid can win the Hart? That’s not how this works at all.

    “on paper” has no meaning when we have the actual results infront of us. Right now, the Avalanche is a better team than the Oilers. Mackinnon is playing with players that are performing better than Oilers players are, which is why they are making it to the playoffs and the Oilers are not.

    And people saying “the Oilers have to make the playoffs for McDavid to win the Hart” is false. Precedent has already been set that players who aren’t going to the playoffs can win the Hart.

    You do not have to make the playoffs to win a Hart, no matter how many times people say otherwise.

  174. Side says:

    Gotta love sports, where unwritten rules not only impact how the game is played but also how award winners are determined, apparently.

  175. Wilde says:

    Spokane’s gonna lose this game, shots were 20-9 for them at one point and are 30-29 for Portland to end the game.

    No points for Yamamoto

  176. VOR says:

    Years ago I was retooling my skills in grad school and because it fit my schedule and my curiosity I took comparative anatomy. It was wicked fun. The final included garbage bags with bones in them. You had to feel the bones and say what animal (proper scientific name) they came from. I had a blast.

    We also had to do a fifteen minute presentation. I spent several days listening to presentations about echo location in bats. Apparently, this fascinates many people. The student right before me gave one of the best presentation I have ever heard on any topic, about bats and echo location. The difference between Wayne and everyone else was he was completely immersed in the topic and deeply passionate about it and he knew everything there was to know about bats. People actually cheered.

    I got up and started talking about taste buds, their morphology and the different types and how what happens on our tongue is turned into this amazing range of “tastes” more than 3,000 of them. People are shuffling, talking, and gathering up their stuff because I am the last speaker. I finish and am getting ready to sit down and the Professor and his TAs start firing questions at me. Nobody else got questions, and these were hard frigging questions delivered with a great deal of sarcasm and doubt about my thinking. It went on and on and eventually the other students started to leave and they quit.

    I got the top mark in the class for the year. Though I was 3rd or 4th in the presentation. A few years later I got to ask the professor, Joe Nelson, what he was doing with the interrogation. “In more than 30 years of teaching I can count on the fingers of one hand the truly original, possibly important presentations student’s have given. It is so rare I thought I owed it to each of you to give you my full attention and strictest criticism. I don’t give a rat’s ass about echo location in bats, it has been studied to death. Taste on the other hand is unknown territory. Every time I experience a new taste I think of you and wonder if you were right about how it works.”

    “So why didn’t you give me the top marks for presentation?”

    “Because you did a terrible job of presenting a brilliant idea. You did the idea a disservice. I should have marked you even lower.”

    My way of saying ignore my lousy presentation as I present some brilliant ideas.

    You all know Bill James, let me introduce you to William James.

    My favourite Will James quote is:

    “I originally studied medicine in order to be a physiologist, but I drifted into psychology and philosophy from a sort of fatality. I never had any philosophic instruction, the first lecture on psychology I ever heard being the first I ever gave”

    Will James is arguably the greatest psychologist in history and a tremendously important and influential philosopher.

    Tonight we are going to focus on his concept “live choices”. “Good decision making,” he argued, “is about maximizing your live choices.” This is James being funny. He suffered from recurrent bouts of severe depression and once spent months debating with himself over whether or not to commit suicide. He told friends and family he felt he didn’t have enough options to make an informed decision – thus live choices – the enriched field of options that would allow somebody to make an informed decision to take their own life.

    For our purposes you need to know just briefly thinking about an option doesn’t make it a “live choice”. No you give it life by thinking about it deeply over a long period of time, by seeing how it feels intuitively and emotionally and debating it thoroughly and critically. This is of course not how people normally go about making decisions.

    Those of you who have read both Blink and Think will understand whether you should use intuition and gut instinct or in depth analysis depends on the decision setting. So jumping out of the way of a runaway horse is clearly no place for extensive critical debate. Deciding to go to war with North Korea or Iran on the other hand is no place for going with your gut and ignoring the facts and other options.

    The NHL draft is a place for maximizing the live options. But there is a substantial body of evidence that says scouts and GMs place players in bins, the top tier of the first round, the next tier, etc. This instantly reduces the likelihood of the correct decision being made.

    I am going to make a bold statement: teams that spend the most money and deploy the most resources on scouting are the teams that consistently out perform Central Scouting. This is because their bins are bigger and they know far more about all the players in each bin. At every stage they have more live options! Tomorrow I will present the evidence. For now focus on the idea:

    Draft success is partly down to investing resources.

    This is undoubtedly in part because “teams that spend a lot of money on the draft actually value each draft pick more highly and invest more in their development.” That’s Bill James the stats guru and a good place to stop.

  177. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde:
    The league as a whole, is shooting 13.8% ish on their high danger chances this year, by the way.

    So if Milan Lucic was an ‘average’ finisher cashing ‘average’ high danger chances, he’d have at least 4 more goals.

    Unfortunately he’s far worse than league average even though he’s working with 97-laced HDC’s.

    Historically Lucic has been an above average finisher. So maybe next season we see something of a bounce back.

    He’s shooting like half of his career percentage right now?

    If he was as well liked as Eberle here I think more people would be preaching patience.

  178. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot,

    I think Eberle got more rope from some, less than others, and it’s the same with Lucic.

    What we know for sure is that we’ve seen the breaking point where most of what’s said is negative, for both of them.

    Milan rebounding? It’ll happen, his shooting % will go up, but I have a feeling his opportunity to shoot, especially in a dangerous area, will never be as plentiful as result of docked ice-time. Particularly less ice-time with a top tier playmaking centre.

    So I don’t think it’s fair to the guy to ever expect a full rebound to 55/82.

  179. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bank Shot,

    Eberle? Well liked? Maybe in the days of HOPE hype maybe.

    The last few years fans were mostly fierce critics or people who acknowledged his shortcomings while valuing his goal scoring.

    Very few out and out liked him.

    This site admittedly probably had more people who were in that last camp.

    That said Eberle never had a season as bad as Lucic this year. It’s not his lack of scoring. It is his horrendous giveaway to takeaway ratio and his big negative penalty ratio. Almost all his penalties are stick infraction minors, too.

    The only thing he is doing is hitting, because he does not have the puck.

    To me., the media has been far more lenient on Lucic than they were on Eberle.

    I don’t hate Lucic. The contract is Chia’s fault. I hope he bounces back.

  180. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Side: .

    And people saying “the Oilers have to make the playoffs for McDavid to win the Hart” is false. Precedent has already been set that players who aren’t going to the playoffs can win the Hart.

    You do not have to make the playoffs to win a Hart, no matter how many times people say otherwise.

    – In common-law there is a term called “convention”. It’s basically non legal “rules” that are understood, and following as practice. But they are unwritten

    – While it is true that you do not have to make the playoffs, it’s only happened once in the last 50 years, exceptional year of Lemieux, when Gretz was injured

    – And only 4 times in over 100 years has the Hart not gone to playoff team.

    – So its pretty entrenched as a convention that in order to be the most valuable, you have to be doing it on a playoff team. I think that’s cool actually

    – It’s hardly a tragedy or miscarriage of justice it Kucherov, 40 100 and turn around his team wins, and Conner doesn’t.

    – This convention of being a playoff team reinforces the belief that the playoffs matter

    – It’s fine to argue the semantics of the language of most valuable, but ignoring the convention because our favourite player has had 25 exceptional games after the team is no longer playing for anything, ignores a basic historic tenet of the award.

  181. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Well put.

    Tenant->tenet?
    But yeah you summarized it well.

  182. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    – By the way thought of you when I saw this. A few weeks ago you were talking about sports photography. Randy Johnson, he’s big time into baseball photography…

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/randy-johnson-opens-1989-baseball-231004981.html

  183. elgruntus says:

    Can we take the PPG argument out of the equation?

    When Nuge lost the Calder to Landeskog, it was generally accepted that it was because Nuge missed too many games with injuries.

    RNH had .84 PPG (52 Pts in 62 gms)
    Landeskog had .63 PPG (52 pts in 82 gms)

    Now, the argument is flipped in favor of the injured player??

  184. Pescador says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    – By the way thought of you when I saw this.A few weeks ago you were talking about sports photography.Randy Johnson, he’s big time into baseball photography…

    https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/randy-johnson-opens-1989-baseball-231004981.html

    Randy Johnson is big time of everything

  185. Pescador says:

    Wilde:
    Bank Shot,

    I think Eberle got more rope from some, less than others, and it’s the same with Lucic.

    What we know for sure is that we’ve seen the breaking point where most of what’s said is negative, for both of them.

    Milan rebounding? It’ll happen, his shooting % will go up, but I have a feeling his opportunity to shoot, especially in a dangerous area, will never be as plentiful as result of docked ice-time. Particularly less ice-time with a top tier playmaking centre.

    So I don’t think it’s fair to the guy to ever expect a full rebound to 55/82.

    Lucic point totals are important but the bigger problem for him is making simple plays look impossible.
    Soft parade seems to be helping in that regard,
    I’m not going to hold my breath for some sort of bounce back year stats wise for Lucic especially if Dylan Strome is his center for the majority of next season.
    The NHL’s stance on Goaltender interference thinks that Strome is inconsistent

  186. jake70 says:

    RIP Le Grand Orange

  187. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot: Historically Lucic has been an above average finisher. So maybe next season we see something of a bounce back.

    He’s shooting like half of his career percentage right now?

    If he was as well liked as Eberle here I think more people would be preaching patience.

    Eberle was 25 ish. Lucic is 30ish. One is entering his prime. The other when big forwards tend to fall off the cliff.

  188. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Pescador: Lucic point totals are important but the bigger problem for him is making simple plays look impossible.
    Soft parade seems to be helping in that regard,
    I’m not going to hold my breath for some sort of bounce back year stats wise for Lucic especially if Dylan Strome is his center for the majority of next season.
    The NHL’s stance on Goaltender interference thinks that Strome is inconsistent

    Dylan Strome would be a nice acquisition. What would we trade to get him? 😉

  189. Pescador says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Dylan Strome would be a nice acquisition. What would we trade to get him?

    His brother Ryan, of course

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