Peace frog

At long last, what might be the most disappointing season in Oilers history is complete. A brilliant young franchise player extended his lead as the best player in the game but the team could not overcome flaws across the roster and will miss the playoffs. Let this be the last time 97 misses the playoffs. Amen.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

Jon’s piece on Todd McLellan is excellent, recommended reading. It’s also timely, as we head into the offseason with much work for the organization and many questions in need of answers. My item on Russia looks at the Oilers finally landing on a strategy in regard to that hockey nation.

ENDLESS SUMMER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in April 2016: 1-1-1, goal differential -1, three points
  • Oilers in April 2017: 2-1-0, goal differential +1, four points 
  • Oilers in April 2018: 2-1-0, goal differential -2, four points

AFTER 82, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 31-43-8, goal differential -49 (70 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 47-26-9, goal differential +44 (103 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 36-40-6, goal differential -33 (78 points)

It took 95 points to make the playoffs in the Western Confernce this season, the Oilers needed nine more wins. That’s a gap. In the coming days we’ll find out about management and coaching changes and the players will shuffle in June and early July. This is a bitter pill.

  • NaturalStatTrick
  • NHL.com
  • Cam Talbot made 36 of 38 stops, .947. I think the Oilers can count on him for next season but would have an improved backup on the roster for opening night.
  • Connor McDavid finishes the season 82, 41-67-108 (1.32). I projected him 80, 37-73-110 (1.375) in my RE post, that’s a hit. What’s more, my RE for 16-17 was 72, 33-54-87 (1.21) and he finished that season 82, 30-70-100 (1.22). Both hits. Connor McDavid’s 5×5/60 scoring number this season was 3.24, No. 1 in the NHL and an incredible total. We are witnessing greatness, the kind you tell your grandchildren about, in real time.
  • Leon Draisaitl finished with 2.32/60 scoring at 5×5, ranking No. 38 in the NHL among skaters with 500 or more minutes. He was injured early and people were down on the big man for much of the year, but there’s real quality in the season just passed. He went 78, 25-45-70 for the year, and at age 22, owns an enormous future. He must play center for the good of the team.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a very dynamic player on McDavid’s wing. He finished No. 81 among skaters in 5×5/scoring, 2.01 per 60. In 203 minutes with 97, RNH scored 2.95/60 at 5×5. His boxcars (62, 24-24-48) shine. I think the Oilers did it right, waiting until Leon established he could drive a line before moving RNH up, but the slotting is obvious now and the organization should proceed with this as the plan.
  • Ryan Strome finished 82, 13-21-34, 1.48 5×5 scoring per 60. I think his season was right in line with what should have been expected.
  • Milan Lucic finished 82, 10-24-34, one of the most disappointing seasons we’ve seen in Edmonton. The big man was 49, 9-21-30 before the All-Star break, only 33, 1-3-4 after the break. The organization can’t buy him out but there’s no way they can count on him for next season in a feature role.

I’ll have a complete review of the season and there are big plans for The Athletic this spring in terms of drilling down on individual performances. This blog will focus on summer, the draft and any breaking news we may receive in the coming days.

He’s a legit prospect and would rank inside the Oilers’ Top 10 upon signing. It looks like that will happen and soon. I wrote about, at the time of the trade, here.

OILERS 2018 DRAFT PICKS

Later this month, we’ll see where the first-round pick lands, but as of today, the draft picks break down as below.

  • First Round—No. 9 overall
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya has now covered the condition. It is a fourth).
  • Fifth Round—No. 131 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 162 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 193 overall

My list (latest here) has seven top tier players, many believe Brady Tkachuk is in that range as well, meaning eight names in this draft who we can project as being impact prospects. On the other hand, it may mean the pick is spent on Ty Smith and I’m all about it.

SOME EARLY HEADLINES

  • Darnell Nurse will likely get a bridge deal. I don’t see an option.
  • It’s possible one of Milan Lucic, Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera are open to a trade. That would be an ideal solution, depending on the trade.
  • Peter Chiarelli is vulnerable, as is Todd McLellan. If something is going to happen, it will be soon.
  • The Rangers fired Alain Vigneault last night, no word on assistants and specifically goalie coach Benoit Allaire. He would have worked with Cam Talbot and the organization may want to get their No. 1 man in a comfortable situation. Something to watch.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is a very talented young man and the Oilers should stick with him.
  • As I see it, the trade assets Edmonton currently boasts who are both valuable and come from a place of real depth, are Oscar Klefbom.
  • The first-round pick is surely in play.
  • My list of team needs are a scoring winger (James Neal), a two-way forward (Bob mentions Derek Ryan), a strong backup goalie option.
  • The Oilers list of team needs starts with right defense and an offensive option. Tyson Barrie, Matt Dumba, Kris Letang, in that range. The cost will be significant.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

220 Responses to "Peace frog"

Newer Comments »
  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    There’s blood in the streets, it’s up to my ankles

    Blood in the streets, it’s up to my knee

    Blood in the streets in the town of Chicago

    Blood on the rise, it’s following me

  2. deardylan says:

    In the last post a few where talking about different intelligences…. Here is my two extra bitpennies:

    Most people in this LT forum are a sweet mix of EQ and IQ.

    Have you ever been at a online forum with pure IQers or pure EQers?

    That 100 percentile EQ dude: This dude narrative of the truth is rarely pure and never simple. He wins the relationships and loses the plot.

    That 100 percentile IQ data analyst: This dude who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. He wins the battle and loses friends.

    The only difference between the IQ data analysts and the EQ storytellers is that every data analyst has a past and every storyteller has a future.

  3. Spartacus says:

    Last night’s send-off for the Sedin’s was pure class by a fan base that has moments that make me proud to be an Oilers fan.

    Last year – the crowd singing the Star Spangled Banner a cappella comes to mind.

    We have a mess of a management team but really, Oilers fans deserve better.

    Make it so.

  4. jake70 says:

    “Let this be the last time 97 misses the playoffs. Amen”

    Are you hearing trade rumours?? LOL – I kid I kid.

  5. russ99 says:

    Going to be an interesting summer.

    If moving one or more of Lucic, Russell or Sekera is high on the summer wishlist, you’re going to be disappointed.

    Nobody is taking Lucic off our hands, and I’d rather keep the devil we know and defensemen that are useful next year and tradable next summer than take back an equally bad contract and a player we have no clue if they can fit in with the group.

    When it all comes down to it, the players have to agree to be moved and all three have reasons to stay.

    The only chance I see is if one of the players has an issue with McLellan and McLellan stays.

  6. Lowetide says:

    deardylan:
    In the last post a few where talking about different intelligences….Here is my two extra bitpennies:

    Most people in this LT forum are a sweet mix of EQ and IQ.

    Have you ever been at a online forum with pure IQers or pure EQers?

    That 100 percentile EQ dude: This dude narrative of the truth is rarely pure and never simple. He wins the relationships and loses the plot.

    That 100 percentile IQ data analyst: This dude who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. He wins the battle and loses friends.

    The only difference between the IQ data analysts and the EQ storytellers is that every data analyst has a past and every storyteller has a future.

    I agree with all of it. The math people make us think, the narrative people make it matter. There are those who can combine the two but the best of those are the ones who bring ideas and are open to construction and the possibility of being wrong. These people are my favorites.

  7. Yeti says:

    I earnestly believe that, if he stays healthy and plays some minutes on McDavid’s wing, next season could be the year when RNH cracks the 50 point mark.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Yeti:
    I earnestly believe that, if he stays healthy and plays some minutes on McDavid’s wing, next season could be the year when RNH cracks the 50 point mark.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WZLJpMOxS4

  9. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Woodguy/LT,

    I had an interaction with a Jets fan over 2 weeks ago after I put out a suggestion of a Nurse for Trouba trade. Their reaction was that Trouba was the second coming of Lidstrom, lol.

    I understand what Nurse is/will become. Nurse has outstanding shot attempt metrics and he is close to the top in even points scored by a Dman this year, BUT. He doesn’t have a great shot, how much of his EV points are from moving the puck to McDavid/playing with him and 97 just doing McDavid things?

    Trouba hasn’t reached the promise that his rookie season hinted at. He also has an extensive injury history, kind of like Klefbom. I am thinking a Trouba for Nurse deal is one of the best scenarios to land a very good RHD PPQB on a long term deal similar to what Klef signed. Plus it would be trading from an area of strength. Thoughts?

  10. Richard S.S. says:

    The chaces of any one of Milan Lucic, Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera being traded are extremely remote, less than 1%. Anything else is fanciful, wishful thinking.
    The Officiating in the 2017 Postseason was markedly and even blantedly anti-Oiler. With just two calls going the Oiler way, they advance to the final four and maybe even further. The three aforementioned Players were important parts of that run. Their contracts are basically untradeable right now.
    The Oilers need to discuss what they must see from each player next Season, what each player must do.

  11. Richard S.S. says:

    Peter Chiarelli will do what he needs to do as best as he can. Some people will not like what happens, and some will. That’s life. Mid-June, the NHL/NHLPA will annouce the Cap for the upcoming Season. Prior to that speculating runs wild. The fun begins now.

  12. flyfish1168 says:

    Lt thanks for another excellent article. With Andrej Sekera troubled knee I’m not confident LHD is a strength. Compared to the RHD yes. Darnell is good and getting better but is he a true #1, Kris is Kris, hard-working and gives you his all but best suited as a 3rd pairing on a good team. Oscar is good but if we take him out of the equation we are left with an uncertainty on that side. I don’t have confidence any LHD on the farm can come in a do a good enough job on a good team. JMHO

    I did the tank NHL 2018 draft simulator and the Phlegms won the draft and we came in 2nd. I took a picture of this if anyone wants it. Let me know.

  13. fifthcartel says:

    The season is done and Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan should go with it, but they probably won’t because ‘continuity’.

    Hoping for a clean sweep, expecting the assistants gone with Coffey taking one of the positions. Sigh.

  14. Jordan says:

    While I’m incredibly dissapointed about this season’s results, I remain hopeful.

    The Oilers have the best player in the game. No question after this season. For at least another 8 years. That’s great news everyone who bleeds blue and orange and has eyes.

    I’m still not sure how to look at the last 3 years.

    Year 1, the Oilers didn’t look good a lot of the time. The D needed a lot more help.

    Year 2 looked great with the french robot goalie we got, and no injuries

    Year 3 has been rough with some injuries and some sv% regression, some defensive lapses, and no winger depth

    I’m quite torn about whether bringing in the UFAs was the right way to build the team long-term.

    I look at the 3 big vertan FAs we signed, and wonder how I would feel if we wouldn’t have signed them. How would the fanbase feel if we’d been 3 years outside looking in since Connors arrival?

    I can’t stand the dollar amounts moving forwards, butcan anyone deny that players were necessary to push the organization forwards?

    We are now dealing with the cost of trying to build it fast.

    I’d say 1 of 3 years was worth it.

    I hope things improve in the off-season. At this point, I question next years playoff opprotunity.

  15. dustrock says:

    Terrible Oilers season was capped off by me leading our hockey pool for 90% of the season, for the first time in 13 years (I bet on TB), only to have my multiple-winner brother have his team go supernova and catch me in the last 10 games. Blood in, blood out.

    Is Vigneault an improvement on McLellan? Not sure.

    Should we have a poll on which of Chiarelli or McLellan will get fired first?

  16. gogliano says:

    So long as the Oilers don’t trade away RNH or make some similarly silly trade that will almost surely bleed talent, I remain hopeful for next season.

  17. dustrock says:

    Fire Fleming as well.

  18. Mr DeBakey says:

    It’s possible one of Milan Lucic, Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera are open to a trade. That would be an ideal solution, depending on the trade.

    Sekera doesn’t belong in the same conversation as the other two.

    You talked about “dealing from the top” and what a bad idea it is.
    I count 11 skaters on this roster who could be considered “the top”:
    Connor McDavid
    Leon Draisaitl
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    Jesse Puljujarvi
    Jujhar Khaira
    Zack Kassian
    Darnell Nurse
    Matthew Benning
    Adam Larsson
    Oscar Klefbom
    Andrej Sekera

    I’m not saying you can’t trade these guys, but if you do you’re robbing Peter to pay Paul.

  19. Rondo says:

    !st round winners

    TB
    Boston
    Wash
    Philly

    Nash
    Winn
    LA
    Ana

  20. AshetonisGod says:

    Play Lucic and Cags (if resigned) on 4th line next yr. Make them earn 3rd line minutes. Start Reg on 3rd pairing until he’s back to quality and can handle top 4 role again. By limiting ice time of replacement level players team can improve a bit. These are easy fixes.

  21. flyfish1168 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    It’s possible one of Milan Lucic, Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera are open to a trade. That would be an ideal solution, depending on the trade.

    Sekera doesn’t belong in the same conversation as the other two.

    You talked about “dealing from the top” and what a bad idea it is.
    I count 11 skaters on this roster who could be considered “the top”:
    Connor McDavid
    Leon Draisaitl
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    Jesse Puljujarvi
    Jujhar Khaira
    Zack Kassian
    Darnell Nurse
    Matthew Benning
    Adam Larsson
    Oscar Klefbom
    Andrej Sekera

    I’m not saying you can’t trade these guys, but if you do you’re robbing Peter to pay Paul.

    +1

    I am not in favour of trading any 1st round picks unless we are in contention and it is at the trade deadline

  22. Westchester Oil says:

    LT – I just want to say that I am grateful for all that you do. In a year of extreme disappointment (how does a team get only 78 points with 82 games of brilliance from #97), one horrible (Lucic) and two bad (Russell/Sekera) contracts on the books, more questionable moves by Chiarelli (giving up an asset for Montoya, limited return from Maroon), reminders of past mistakes and coulda, woulda, shoulda’s staring us in the face (Hall, Barzal) and relatively limited upside in the pipeline (at least compared to a team like the Canucks)- you have consistently raised the level of discourse and made this season almost bearable.

  23. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    lucic must be hurt, right? he fell off a cliff.

  24. Lowetide says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Woodguy/LT,

    I had an interaction with a Jets fan over 2 weeks ago after I put out a suggestion of a Nurse for Trouba trade.Their reaction was that Trouba was the second coming ofLidstrom, lol.

    I understand what Nurse is/will become.Nurse has outstanding shot attempt metrics and he is close to the top in even points scored by a Dman this year, BUT.He doesn’t have a great shot, how much of his EV points are from moving the puck to McDavid/playing with him and 97 just doing McDavid things?

    Trouba hasn’t reached the promise that his rookie season hinted at.He also has an extensive injury history, kind of like Klefbom.I am thinking a Trouba for Nurse deal is one of the best scenarios to land a very good RHD PPQB on a long term deal similar to what Klef signed.Plus it would be trading from an area of strength.Thoughts?

    The only issue I have with Trouba is a story (can’t remember where) about his wanting to play in the U.S. For me, that means a short career in Edmonton. Nurse is a guy who is invested and part of the McDavid cluster. He improved this season (again) and hasn’t signed a contract yet that makes him a drag. We’ll see but I’m inclined to stay the course with Nurse UNLESS someone offers a crazy value.

  25. Rondo says:

    Draft #9

    These players could be around

    Bouchard
    Dobson
    Smith
    Tkachuk
    Wahlstrom
    Wilde

  26. Bling says:

    Ryan Strome must lead the NHL in almost_somethings/60.

    I think he is a good fit as 3C, and potentially someone who could have a breakout season if his almost_somethings turn into points. He needs to get a little bit quicker, both on his skates and with his shot.

  27. Bryan says:

    In case anyone didn’t see it there is a great article on Sportsnet about Taylor Hall. Just to make that morning coffee taste a bit more bitter. I’m happy for him though….hope he can carry the Devils to a few wins.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/taylor-hall-hart-trophy-new-jersey-devils/

  28. YKOil says:

    Nurse on a bridge <3 mill would relieve much of the pressure to trade one of the NMC's. In order of who to trade: Lucic, Russell, Sekera. In order of tradability: Sekera, Russell, Lucic. I expect light smoke but no fire.

  29. Pescador says:

    Rondo:
    Draft#9

    These players could be around

    Bouchard
    Dobson
    Smith
    Tkachuk
    Wahlstrom
    Wilde

    Bouchard
    Tkachuk
    Whalstrom
    will all be gone,
    Maybe Dobson will still be on the board.

  30. Bling says:

    Lowetide: The only issue I have with Trouba is a story (can’t remember where) about his wanting to play in the U.S. For me, that means a short career in Edmonton. Nurse is a guy who is invested and part of the McDavid cluster. He improved this season (again) and hasn’t signed a contract yet that makes him a drag. We’ll see but I’m inclined to stay the course with Nurse UNLESS someone offers a crazy value.

    I’m fully on board with keeping Nurse. He has taken significant strides the past two seasons.

    I don’t trust Chia to negotiate that extension, though. Can we crowd fund him an all-inclusive trip to Cuba? Or maybe the Moon? Mars?

  31. Pescador says:

    Bling:
    Ryan Strome must lead the NHL in almost_somethings/60.

    I think he is a good fit as 3C, and potentially someone who could have a breakout season if his almost_somethings turn into points. He needs to get a little bit quicker, both on his skates and with his shot.

    Is Strome a 3C on a team that hopes to win anything?
    What are we shooting for,
    Western Conference Islanders?

  32. Ben says:

    There is absolutely zero evidence that Chiarelli can be trusted to fix his own mistakes.

    I’m more ambivalent about the coaching, which was given three, max four, top-six forwards to work with.

  33. Younger Oil says:

    For the McDavid Hart argument:

    McDavid had 24 games this season in which he did not record a point.

    Edmonton only won three of those games.

    Haven’t checked the numbers for the other Hart contenders, but that seems insane.

  34. leadfarmer says:

    It’s going to take some skillful GMing to get out from under that Lucic contract. Probably something like us retaining, trading an asset to a second team for them retaining, and find a third team that needs more gritensity

  35. Rondo says:

    Pescador,

    You’re probably right, I like Dobson better than Bouchard , he’s a better skater and so is Wilde

  36. Pescador says:

    YKOil:
    Nurse on a bridge <3 mill would relieve much of the pressure to trade one of the NMC’s.In order of who to trade: Lucic, Russell, Sekera. In order of tradability: Sekera, Russell, Lucic. I expect light smoke but no fire.

    The roster requires 3 significant upgrades minimum.
    Scoring winger for Draisaitl
    2RD for now & forever, same as it ever was.
    Improved Backup
    That’s what is required to even make the playoffs ext year IMO.
    There is no Cap space,
    Bridge Nurse & trade Russell

  37. leadfarmer says:

    Younger Oil,

    At this point there’s like 5 or 6 forwards that have a legitimate case for the Hart.
    Mcdavid McKinnon Hall Giroux Kopitar kucherov

    Personally I’d give it to Hall cause he’s done the most with the least and without him I could easily see his team dropping 10 spots in the standings. Great seasons for all of them. Whoever wins it is going to have a lot of people pissed of at them

  38. The Trade Guy says:

    While I can’t guarantee that Sekera will bounce back. I think its folly to write him off based on how he’s performed after a major knee injury.

    Personally, I would bet he will look like the Sekera of old next season and that was a good player and worth the contract.

    Lucic, Russell, these other bottom sixers that can’t piss a drop… I’d look there first.

  39. Bling says:

    Pescador: Is Strome a 3C on a team that hopes to win anything?
    What are we shooting for,
    Western Conference Islanders?

    CORSI% 50.96
    GF% 47.06
    xGF% 50.32
    EV P/60 1.41
    PDO 99.22

    (All numbers from Corsica)

    Positive possession player who was perhaps a bit unlucky this season. He also turned into a good PK’er by the end of the season.

    Perfectly serviceable as a 3C, especially considering your top 2 C are McDavid and Drai, AND that if either of those two get injured, it’ll be RNH that slots in.

  40. Confused says:

    dustrock,

    Out of contract

  41. Bling says:

    Younger Oil:
    For the McDavid Hart argument:

    McDavid had 24 games this season in which he did not record a point.

    Edmonton only won three of those games.

    Haven’t checked the numbers for the other Hart contenders, but that seems insane.

    God this team sucks.

  42. Confused says:

    Strome will hopefully sign for a good number.

    Followed by a hard season with Connor working on speed and shoot.

  43. Confused says:

    Bling,

    No it just tries to p!ay man-to-man coverage with lots of injured D

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the ironic realities in this situation is the Oilers are failing in building a competitive team on-ice, but the entity known as OEG has been 100% successful as an entertainment and real estate business. Katz has created a literal cash cow in a small northern city. In a few months they’ll make some tweaks to the jersey and we’ll buy it in droves cos even though we preach the importance of results mattering, we fill up the building and buy any turd with an Oilers logo on it to show our allegiance to these losers. In short, we empower this AND the wealth it creates empowers these jokers to delude themselves into thinking that they’re competent. Pretty hard to convince yourself that you’re a dumbass when you’re printing money on demand.

    Hall out for Larsson and Lucic in has never been less defensible than it is at this moment. This season was the most poorly coached Oilers team I’ve seen since Eakins’ final season.

    This is not progress and it’s hard to see a coherent plan, but the OEG is starting to remind me of a casino where the odds are stacked in favour of the house.

    Go Jets. Go Devils. Go Oilers….to the golf course.

  45. Woogie63 says:

    NHL is going to take analytics to a whole new level next year.

    This play-off they are testing a new German made puck with a sensor embedded.

    The possibility of unbiased, real time granular data is near.

  46. PunjabiOil says:

    Draft position isn’t necessarily indicative of how the prospects will turn out, but man I was disapointed after that Vegas win on Thursday

    A loss would have guaranteed 7th. That shootout win yesterday cost us from 7th to 9th.

    It’s at the point where there begins a drop off in the draft.

    I’m of belief you check emotion at the door and think rationally. A loss yesterday was the greatest good.
    Very unfortunate, and I don’t understand why more teams don’t tank like the NBA. It could have meant starting Montoya more often the past month, more minutes to younger players and depth d-man.

    My hunch, given the position the Oilers will be in, they are more likely to now trade their 1st rounder for immediate help. If they’re still after OEL, the conversation would start at 9th overall plus.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    flyfish1168: +1

    I am not in favour of trading any 1st round picks unless we are in contention and it is at the trade deadline

    No offence, but trading first round picks at the deadline is the worst time to do it. If you’re going to trade a first round pick you do it at the draft. I’ll be perfectly fine trading down in the first round this year.

  48. Confused says:

    With AVs departure, the NYR goalkeeper coach should be available, this should be our top priority if we are keeping Cam

  49. Younger Oil says:

    Oilers: 24 games, 3-21 without McDavid scoring a point.

    Devils: 25 games, 9-16 without Hall scoring a point.

    Flyers: 20 games, 8-12 without Giroux scoring a point.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Woodguy/LT,

    I had an interaction with a Jets fan over 2 weeks ago after I put out a suggestion of a Nurse for Trouba trade.Their reaction was that Trouba was the second coming ofLidstrom, lol.

    I understand what Nurse is/will become.Nurse has outstanding shot attempt metrics and he is close to the top in even points scored by a Dman this year, BUT.He doesn’t have a great shot, how much of his EV points are from moving the puck to McDavid/playing with him and 97 just doing McDavid things?

    Trouba hasn’t reached the promise that his rookie season hinted at.He also has an extensive injury history, kind of like Klefbom.I am thinking a Trouba for Nurse deal is one of the best scenarios to land a very good RHD PPQB on a long term deal similar to what Klef signed.Plus it would be trading from an area of strength.Thoughts?

    I don’t think counting Dman points is good way of evaluating Dmen.

    Years ago Tyler Dellow had a post on his old blog showing that a lot of Dmen “steal” points from the forwards.

    What this means is that that *the team* doesn’t score more points with the Dman on the ice than off, but rather the Dman gets points on the goals that get scored.

    The Dman moves the needle on his own points, but not on the overall goal differential of the team.

    The best value in Dmen is finding the ones who move the possession and goal differential results without getting points.

    Points get a player paid, and they aren’t always worth the points they score to the overall team winning.

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pescador: Is Strome a 3C on a team that hopes to win anything?
    What are we shooting for,
    Western Conference Islanders?

    Strome is a legit 3C. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of a team who has a much better 3C. Toronto I guess. There’s plenty of teams with 3Cs in the same range. But no one really has a 3C that jumps off the page that I can think of.

  52. godot10 says:

    Yeti:
    I earnestly believe that, if he stays healthy and plays on McDavid’s wing and the Oilers hire a new coach, next season could be the year when RNH cracks the 50 goal mark.

    FTFY! -) -)

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: The only issue I have with Trouba is a story (can’t remember where) about his wanting to play in the U.S. For me, that means a short career in Edmonton. Nurse is a guy who is invested and part of the McDavid cluster. He improved this season (again) and hasn’t signed a contract yet that makes him a drag. We’ll see but I’m inclined to stay the course with Nurse UNLESS someone offers a crazy value.

    Nurse is also currently the best Oiler LHD (I think he’s passed Klef)

    Don’t deal from the top

  54. sumaclab says:

    This season should remind us all that when you trade the best player in a trade you lose the trade.It appears Chiarelli is smarter than the 99%. And it shows. 78 point season. Yes sir he is the smartest man in the room. Mactavish was replaced by Chiarelli because he was Klowes man not Bob Nicholsons man. Well BN you tied your wagon to a dead horse. Now that the the season is over its time to pay the bills. Katz would be an idiot. And he is not. To keep a losing manager and coach with perhaps the NHLs biggest and brightest player and captain, Art Ross x 2 winner on your team. Would be stupidity. Insane. You cannot reason your way to keeping Chiarelli and TM. Both need to be fired. Immediately. Whether BN needs to be added is debatable. The proof is a proof when it is proven. Well fellow fans it has been proven. The proof is that the GM and Coachs plan has failed miserably. The blame falls on them. You cannot reason that they deserve another opportunity to come up with Plan B. Its time to move on and bring in a new team to lead this group.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63:
    NHL is going to take analytics to a whole new level next year.

    This play-off they are testing a new German made puck with a sensor embedded.

    The possibility of unbiased, real time granular data is near.

    I haven’t heard about this.

    Source?

    That would be great, but I’m not sure they’d make the data public.

  56. fifthcartel says:

    I’m torn between whether McLellan goes or stays.

    I’m leaning towards just the assistants. IMO it’s the coward’s way out of this season so that’s what I expect.

    Also gives Chiarelli another ‘card’ to play if they’re poor next season.

  57. N64 says:

    For all the narrative about parity in the NHL there is a 27 GOAL CHASM in goal differential after the first 19 teams. Teams that could not get their head above water were very consistent at drowning. Looks like there is a tipping point for mediocre teams that is easier to cross than most narratives assume.

    # Team GP PTS DIFF
    3 Tampa Bay 82 113 +60
    2 Winnipeg 82 114 +59
    4 Boston 81 112 +58
    1 Nashville 82 117 +56

    7 Toronto 82 105 +45
    5 Vegas 82 109 +44
    12 Los Angeles 82 98 +36

    11 San Jose 82 100 +23
    10 Pittsburgh 82 100 +22
    8 Minnesota 82 101 +21
    6 Washington 82 105 +20
    16 Colorado 82 95 +20
    9 Anaheim 82 101 +19

    14 Columbus 82 97 +12
    19  Dallas 82 92 +10
    13 Philadelphia 82 98 +8
    15 New Jersey 82 97 +4
    18 St. Louis 82 94 +4
    17 Florida 81 94 +0

    ———-BRING OUT YOUR DEAD———–

    25  Chicago 82 76 -27
    21  Carolina 82 83 -28
    23  Edmonton 82 78 -29
    20  Calgary 82 84 -30
    22  NY Islanders 82 80 -32
    24  NY Rangers 82 77 -37
    27  Detroit 82 73 -38

    26  Vancouver 82 73 -46
    29  Arizona 82 70 -48
    28  Montréal 82 71 -55

    30  Ottawa 82 67 -70
    31  Buffalo 82 62 -81

  58. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pescador: The roster requires 3 significant upgrades minimum.
    Scoring winger for Draisaitl
    2RD for now & forever, same as it ever was.
    Improved Backup
    That’s what is required to even make the playoffs ext year IMO.
    There is no Cap space,
    Bridge Nurse & trade Russell

    These are the needs for sure. The backup will be cheap and this Is probably the most important need. With league avg goaltending we compete for playoff spot.

  59. OmJo says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Even emotionally a loss yesterday would have probably been ideal. I think some Oilers were trying to give them a W yesterday up until the shootout. But Russell said nope and made his best play of the season in the final minutes of OT.

  60. Melvis says:

    deardylan,

    My sister’s iq is considered quite high. She skipped two grades and graduated high school at 15 with a 98% average – bored to tears. They had to take 2 points off “for messy handwriting”. Boy, was she pissed.

    She’s also the only person in the global Deloitte network, dealing with Fortune 500 CFO’s on a daily basis – short of a degree and an accounting sheepskin billing a thousand an hour and 2.5 mil a year, plus points. She made them a fuck of a lot of money. And here’s what she said one day:

    “Everybody on my floor holds a Mensa card. The smart ones with the card hold it close to their chests. They keep their mouths closed and their ears and eyes open. And they play dumb. And the dumb ones play clever, accidentally exposing the card instead of the Amex when picking up the bar tab.”

    Me? I just tell stories.

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’m torn between whether McLellan goes or stays.

    I’m leaning towards just the assistants. IMO it’s the coward’s way out of this season so that’s what I expect.

    Also gives Chiarelli another ‘card’ to play if they’re poor next season.

    I really dislike the idea of keeping Tmac and firing the assistants. If the coach sucks, fire them all. The buck stops at the head coach. It certainly didn’t work in Chicago. I guess it’s different if the coach decides to fire them himself.

  62. OmJo says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    One of the ironic realities in this situation is the Oilers are failing in building a competitive team on-ice, but the entity known as OEG has been 100% successful as an entertainment and real estate business. Katz has created a literal cash cow in a small northern city. In a few months they’ll make some tweaks to the jersey and we’ll buy it in droves cos even though we preach the importance of results mattering, we fill up the building and buy any turd with an Oilers logo on it to show our allegiance to these losers. In short, we empower this AND the wealth it creates empowers these jokers to delude themselves into thinking that they’re competent. Pretty hard to convince yourself that you’re a dumbass when you’re printing money on demand.

    Hall out for Larsson and Lucic in has never been less defensible than it is at this moment. This season was the most poorly coached Oilers team I’ve seen since Eakins’ final season.

    This is not progress and it’s hard to see a coherent plan,but the OEG is starting to remind me of a casino where the odds are stacked in favour of the house.

    Go Jets. Go Devils. Go Oilers….to the golf course.

    Well said.

    I do think Katz sees the Oilers as a hobby more than anything. He had an extra $200M laying around collect dust between the cushions and decided to throw it at the Oilers and start his own collection of hockey greats.

    Making money is his highest priority, and the Oilers are still doing that while sucking. Though you would think he would see the value of playoff games. More games means more tickets sold means more money. Until the team starts hurting his wallet we’ll have to deal with the circus that is the Edmonton Oilers.

  63. fifthcartel says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I agree completely. It reflects poorly. I’m also doubtful Todd sells Woodcroft out.

    But I absolutely expect it (one or two assistants replaced) still.

  64. OmJo says:

    Younger Oil:
    Oilers: 24 games, 3-21 without McDavid scoring a point.

    Devils: 25 games, 9-16 without Hall scoring a point.

    Flyers: 20 games, 8-12 without Giroux scoring a point.

    That’s terrifying.

  65. AshetonisGod says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Nurse is also currently the best Oiler LHD (I think he’s passed Klef)

    Don’t deal from the top

    This yr absolutely. What about last yr’s Klef vs this yr’s Nurse?

  66. Pescador says:

    Bling: CORSI% 50.96
    GF% 47.06
    xGF% 50.32
    EV P/60 1.41
    PDO 99.22

    (All numbers from Corsica)

    Positive possession player who was perhaps a bit unlucky this season. He also turned into a good PK’er by the end of the season.

    Perfectly serviceable as a 3C, especially considering your top 2 C are McDavid and Drai, AND that if either of those two get injured, it’ll be RNH that slots in.

    Solid numbers based argument, tbh I would rather be wrong.
    What is the contract number that makes Strome a solid bet
    instead of Overpaid?

  67. Younger Oil says:

    Marody signed, 3 years,

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marody has been signed to a 3-year ELC.

    Great stuff.

    I watched 3 Michigan games after we acquired him and really liked his game.

    No sure thing but he is a real prospect – will be great to add him to the influx of talent in to Bakersfield next season.

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    If you were to look at a single metric that tells you how a player changes the goal share for his team when he is on the ice, that metric is Relative Teammate GF%.

    Its not a “player on”/player off” metric like normal Relative metrics, rather its the aggregation of the WOWYS.

    I think its a very interesting and informative stat.

    Like all stats, its needs a lot of context.

    In this case, very good players on bad teams will always look very good as their team mates’ GF% will be better when on with the better players.

    You also have to be careful about Dmen. A Dman’s results are also that of his partner, and I don’t know how to get Relative Team mate GF% for pairs of players.

    You also need large sample sizes. One season is not enough to account for PDO heaters etc.

    You also need to discount the results of 3rd pairing Dmen a bit on when they play on a team when the coach hard matches Dpairs (which is usually all teams)

    When a top 6 forward plays with a 3rd pairing Dman its usually vs lesser comp and a top 6 forward will have a better GF% vs lesser comp.

    All that being said, here is the EDM results of 5v5 Relative Teammate GF% using the last two years as the sample:

    (all traded players only have their EDM results in the sample)

    Player RelT GF%
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 15.4
    PATRICK.MAROON 4.8
    ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 4.3
    JESSE.PULJUJARVI 4.2
    JORDAN.EBERLE 3.8
    LEON.DRAISAITL 0.7
    ZACK.KASSIAN 0.3
    RYAN.STROME 0.3
    MILAN.LUCIC 0.2
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS -0.6
    MIKE.CAMMALLERI -1.0
    JUJHAR.KHAIRA -4.3
    ERIC.GRYBA -5.6
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA -7.1
    BENOIT.POULIOT -7.2
    MARK.LETESTU -7.4

    MATT.BENNING 7.4
    DARNELL.NURSE 6.4
    ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
    KRIS.RUSSELL -2.1
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM -2.1
    ANDREJ.SEKERA -4.3
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON -5.9

    Some thoughts on these results:

    1) McDavid is from another dimension.

    2) RNH had tough matchups for most of last year and some of this year, but had better help this year (esp. with McDavid….duh)

    RNH’s RelTGF% from year to year:

    16/17 -9.24
    17/18 +9.20

    Wild. Maybe leave RNH on 97’s wing eh?

    3) Sekera is similar to RNH, but in reverse. His injury was a real bitch:

    16/17 +5.38
    17/18 -28.1

    4) Adam Larsson is the best Dman on the team.

    Look at Nurse’s and Klefbom’s GF% splits with him over the last two years:

    16/17
    Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
    Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
    Larsson w/o Klef 57.6% GF

    17/18
    Klef w/ Larsson 39.1% GF
    Klef w/o Larsson 44.93 GF
    Larsson w/o Klef 53.4% GF

    That’s crazy.

    Klefbom might be the player to trade to get the 2RD.

    His best season was last year and he was still below 45% GF away from Larsson. Not good.

    I like Klef, but I think its becoming clear that he gives up more than he creates.

    To be fair to Klef, he was hurt this year, but last year he wasn’t and his injury history is growing…..

    Might be the exact right guy to cash in this summer.

    Nurse’s splits with Larsson this year:

    Nurse w/ Larsson 56.9%
    Nurse w/o Larsson 53.7%
    Larsson w/o Nurse 39.5% (see results with Klef above)

    5) The Drake Caggiula Experience should probably end.

    16/17 -1.99
    17/18 -10.0

    6) Benning results are always way better than the visual

    7) Despite not scoring at all, Lucic didn’t drag down GF% too much for his team mates

    16/17 +1.68
    17/18 -0.52

    8) Russell rode the PDO pony hard last year, not so much this year:

    16/17 +2.47
    17/18 -4.98

    Interesting stuff.

    Not the burning bush, but interesting nonetheless

    I prefer to use actual goal share when the sample is large enough rather than Expected Goal metrics.

    I find expected goal metrics over state the value of shot volume vis a vis goals.

    There is skill is scoring goals and stopping goals that shot metrics don’t capture.

    They’re great for what they are, but they have their limitations.

    They are still the best we have for predicting future goal share, but I don’t think they describe play as well as goal share in 2 season + samples.

    They’re great in samples smaller than a season though.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Top 20 RelT GF% forwards in the NHL this year (minimum 900 minutes)

    Player RelT GF%
    WILLIAM.KARLSSON 27.4
    RADEK.FAKSA 19.1
    DUSTIN.BROWN 18.0
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS 17.9
    FILIP.FORSBERG 16.5
    GABRIEL.LANDESKOG 16.4
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 16.4
    TAYLOR.HALL 16.2
    JAMIE.BENN 16.1
    SEAN.MONAHAN 15.5
    CLAUDE.GIROUX 15.2
    VLADIMIR.TARASENKO 15.1
    ARTEMI.PANARIN 14.8
    ALEX.WENNBERG 14.5
    JOHNNY.GAUDREAU 14.4
    ALEX.DEBRINCAT 14.1
    SEAN.COUTURIER 13.5
    EVGENY.DADONOV 13.3
    ANDREW.LADD 13.3
    MARK.STONE 13.1

    Dustin Brown eh?

    Hi Taylor.

    Hi Alex.

  71. godot10 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    It’s possible one of Milan Lucic, Kris Russell or Andrej Sekera are open to a trade. That would be an ideal solution, depending on the trade.

    Sekera doesn’t belong in the same conversation as the other two.

    You talked about “dealing from the top” and what a bad idea it is.
    I count 11 skaters on this roster who could be considered “the top”:
    Connor McDavid
    Leon Draisaitl
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    Jesse Puljujarvi
    Jujhar Khaira
    Zack Kassian
    Darnell Nurse
    Matthew Benning
    Adam Larsson
    Oscar Klefbom
    Andrej Sekera

    I’m not saying you can’t trade these guys, but if you do you’re robbing Peter to pay Paul.

    Zach Kassian is a 75% overpaid 4th liner on a cap crunched team with two more years left. If you can trade him, you do.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Edmonton Oilers

    Verified account

    @EdmontonOilers
    Following Following @EdmontonOilers
    More
    The #Oilers have signed Cooper Marody to a three-year ELC. The 21-year-old forward, whose rights were acquired from Philadelphia on March 21, led @umichhockey with 51 points (16 goals, 35 assists) in 40 games this season.

  73. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Kris \Russel, Lucic and Sek all only cost money to sign:

    1) Russel: He played fine this year, generated some EV offense (most on team), his possessio numbers were close to even, he is still versatile, he blocks a lot of players from having to be too far up, he’s tradeable after this year: you trade Russel, and your just going to find his replacement

    2) Sek: trading away a player who was injured? His CF was better than last year, his CFrel was the best its been since he joined: his PDO was awful at 93, one of the worste in the league. He too is tradeable after next year. If he can’t recover from his injury, then it a problem

    3) Lucic: before Christmas he was posting 1st line 5×5. While is might have hit a wall, he is still going to be somewhere between pre-Christmas Lucic and post: he’s not Anton Lander offence

    – But more importantly, all three have not trade clauses.

    – Sure we would ove to trade Sek for Trouba, or Russel for a RHD. It just isn’t going to happen.

    – Setting up the expectation that we have to trade 3 players who re still NHL players, that all have NTC, is setting up a false expectation I believe. Save Russel, they both have had awful years, and are both candidates to bounce back, and their numbers suggest so.

    – Of all the off-season worries, these 3 players, all NHL’ers, trying to trade them on pennies for the dollar, and thinking moving them given their status, and for Sek and Lucic injured.

    – We need 2nd line winger, and we need another top-4D. Aren’t Sek and Lucic likely to be those?

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Top 20 RelTGF% DMen this year:

    Player RelT GF%
    JOSH.MANSON 18.0
    THOMAS.HICKEY 15.0
    JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 13.4
    TREVOR.VAN RIEMSDYK 13.3
    CHARLIE.MCAVOY 12.0
    KEVIN.CONNAUTON 11.6
    CARL.GUNNARSSON 11.3
    DARNELL.NURSE 11.0
    JOAKIM.RYAN 10.6
    MARKUS.NUTIVAARA 10.3
    JAKOB.CHYCHRUN 9.8
    PATRIK.NEMETH 9.5
    JOHN.KLINGBERG 9.2
    MATT.BENNING 9.1
    SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE 8.4
    MATT.DUMBA 7.8
    MARC.STAAL 7.6
    WILL.BUTCHER 7.4
    MATT.NISKANEN 7.3
    ROBERT.BORTUZZO 7.1

    This is why you need to be careful with this metric.

    3rd pairing Dmen and PDO heaters populate the list for the most part.

    To find the quality, use 2 years of data at minimum and pull out the 3rd pairing Dmen.

    I’ll do that in a post in a few minutes.

  75. godot10 says:

    YKOil:
    Nurse on a bridge <3 mill would relieve much of the pressure to trade one of the NMC’s.In order of who to trade: Lucic, Russell, Sekera. In order of tradability: Sekera, Russell, Lucic. I expect light smoke but no fire.

    If a bridge is the only thing on offer from the Oilers, Nurse is likely to attract a 5 x $5 million offer sheet, which would end up being the worst of all worlds, because one doesn’t get the full eight years.

    Nurse is worth an offer sheet from someone.

  76. Gret99zky says:

    Bling: God this team sucks.

    They do, they really do.

    And HOPE arrived early this April.

    We can count on Talbot next year.
    Sekera will be fully rehabbed and ready to make an impact next year.
    Drai will earn every penny of his $8.5M next year.
    Everyone will be healthy next year.
    Todd deserves another season, he is a good coach.
    Chia will make those tweak trades he’s really good at.
    Lucic will bounce back.
    Darnell will sign a team friendly contract.
    Puljujarvi will score 25 next year.
    Russell can play the right side.
    Yamamoto will make the top six out of camp.
    Montoya is good enough.
    This new draft pick will be plug and play.
    We will make the playoff next year, guaranteed.

    Bag of Pucks,

    The players deserve this loyal fan base. The owner and his management team do not.

  77. Oilin4 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Top 20 RelTGF% DMen this year:

    PlayerRelT GF%
    JOSH.MANSON18.0
    THOMAS.HICKEY15.0
    JUSTIN.SCHULTZ13.4
    TREVOR.VAN RIEMSDYK13.3
    CHARLIE.MCAVOY12.0
    KEVIN.CONNAUTON11.6
    CARL.GUNNARSSON11.3
    DARNELL.NURSE11.0
    JOAKIM.RYAN10.6
    MARKUS.NUTIVAARA10.3
    JAKOB.CHYCHRUN9.8
    PATRIK.NEMETH9.5
    JOHN.KLINGBERG9.2
    MATT.BENNING9.1
    SHAYNE.GOSTISBEHERE8.4
    MATT.DUMBA7.8
    MARC.STAAL7.6
    WILL.BUTCHER7.4
    MATT.NISKANEN7.3
    ROBERT.BORTUZZO7.1

    This is why you need to be careful with this metric.

    3rd pairing Dmen and PDO heaters populate the list for the most part.

    To find the quality, use 2 years of data at minimum and pull out the 3rd pairing Dmen.

    I’ll do that in a post in a few minutes.

    Great posts today. Couple questions if you could indulge:

    1. Does this stat account for penalty +/-. These usually zoom Klef and Connor

    2. Does this account for PDO?

    3. Any idea why there’s such a differential between Klef’s showing here and some pretty decent possession stats? Possession-wise you could say he was better this year than last:

    2016.17 CF% 50.6
    2017.18 CF% 52.6

    2016.17 FF% 52.0
    2017.18 FF% 53.3

    2016.16 CFRel 0.6
    2017.18 CFRel 1.7

    2016.17 FFRel 1.3
    2018.18 FFRel 1.9

    2016.17 PDO 100.5
    2017.18 PDO 96.8

    To me the culprit on Klef is pretty obvious. Plus it’s a gorgeous contract.

  78. treevojo says:

    godot10: If a bridge is the only thing on offer from the Oilers, Nurse is likely to attract a 5 x $5 million offer sheet, which would end up being the worst of all worlds, because one doesn’t get the full eight years.

    Nurse is worth an offer sheet from someone.

    You keep saying this.

    History disagrees.

    Last offer sheet signed was 5 years ago.

    The only player comparable to Nurse to sign an offer sheet this century was 8 years ago.

    Niklas Hjalmarsson

    I guess there is always a chance that this is the summer gms revisit the offer sheet.

    It seems unlikely.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Woogie63: The possibility of unbiased, real time granular data is near.

    Just like Cd’s were going to replace those useless 33 rpm records.

  80. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t think counting Dman points is good way of evaluating Dmen.

    Years ago Tyler Dellow had a post on his old blog showing that a lot of Dmen “steal” points from the forwards.

    What this means is that that *the team* doesn’t score more points with the Dman on the ice than off, but rather the Dman gets points on the goals that get scored.

    The Dman moves the needle on his own points, but not on the overall goal differential of the team.

    The best value in Dmen is finding the ones who move the possession and goal differential results without getting points.

    Points get a player paid, and they aren’t always worth the points they score to the overall team winning.

    From last weeks 31 Thoughts from Friedman

    4. Entering Wednesday’s games, Edmonton had 127 points from defencemen, 27th in the NHL. (Nashville is best, at 195.) That is something the Oilers will address in the off-season. It’s a priority.
    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks-daniel-henrik-sedin-retirement/

    i.e. The Oilers management and coaching are misdiagnosing the problem again. The above is mostly power play points, which is a coaching problem, not a D problem. And paying for power play points for a D when you have McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins, who should be driving the power play is dumb.

    i.e. MacT let Petry walk. i.e. Chiarelli and McLellan let Schultz walk.

    And now we are likely to lose a valuable asset to trade for something that is not really value added.

  81. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10,

    – While they might add cover, or they might try and do a Nurse for OEL (I wouldn’t), I hope they are mindful tht last year Klef was elite offence D, Sek was great, and Larsson a beast

    – I know your strategy can’t be: “well all three will just go back to the year before”, but I don’t know what they are planning on doing.

    – Trading Sek, or Klef now seems like selling low. Trading Nurse, unless its like for like seems like not knowing what you are trading. Russell is what he is, and he will get traded after next year

  82. rickithebear says:

    NY: dumb?
    God No!
    The exact opposite!

    http://www.chegg.com/homework-help/definitions/triarchic-theory-13

    The collective here.
    Have individual strengths.
    In areas of my weakness.

    I married a word smith.
    Editor and writer for sun/Postmedia last 15 years.

    I have the ultimate job for me.
    You choose the job that makes you happy.

  83. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Look at Nurse’s and Klefbom’s GF% splits with him over the last two years:

    16/17
    Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
    Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
    Larsson w/o Klef57.6% GF

    17/18
    Klef w/ Larsson 39.1% GF
    Klef w/o Larsson 44.93 GF
    Larsson w/o Klef53.4% GF

    That’s crazy.

    Klefbom might be the player to trade to get the 2RD.

    His best season was last year and he was still below 45% GF away from Larsson.Not good.

    I like Klef, but I think its becoming clear that he gives up more than he creates.

    To be fair to Klef, he was hurt this year, but last year he wasn’t and his injury history is growing…..

    Might be the exact right guy to cash in this summer.

    I maintain that this coaching staff has misused and confused Klefbom. Larsson was well trained elsewhere, and plays a simple enough game that this staff can’t degrade him. Nurse sought outside coaching in Oates.

    Klefbom played most of his career as a “sweeper” and this coaching staff is using him as (and encouraging him to be) an attacking midfielder. Hence the “problem” with Klefbom’s results.

  84. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – We need 2nd line winger, and we need another top-4D. Aren’t Sek and Lucic likely to be those?

    If it comes out that Lucic was injured all year then a bounce back to being a top 6 forward is a good possibility.

    If he wasnt injured Im not sure how he bounces back to being a top 6 forward. He trained with Terell Owens last summer to get faster, but that didnt work as he was slow to pucks all year.

    As for his “scoring at first line rates at the beginning of the year” he really wasnt driving much of the play then, he was benefitting from a healthy RNH who was driving play/running a bit of shooting PDO heater.

    He got a bit lucky in getting assists at a first line rate at the beginning of the year and then got unlucky the rest of the way.

    I dont think his play changed much all year. His zone exits were not good all year, he would make errant passes in all 3 zones every game. Many times he was just a step too slow for a scoring chance. I love when he is the 22 year old Lucic but that only happened a few times during the year.

    We are married to Lucic for the next few years, and I bet he scores more than the 1 goal he scored in the last 46 games, I just dont think we should be looking for him to a top 6 forward next year. If it happens, great, but the smart plan is to get someone else who can play with either McDavid or Drai.

  85. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I haven’t heard about this.

    Source?

    That would be great, but I’m not sure they’d make the data public.

    Bettman shared it at the Flames Season ticket luncheon, in response to question on analytics on hockey.

  86. Bryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Top 20 RelT GF% forwards in the NHL this year (minimum 900 minutes)

    PlayerRelT GF%
    WILLIAM.KARLSSON27.4
    RADEK.FAKSA19.1
    DUSTIN.BROWN18.0
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS17.9
    FILIP.FORSBERG16.5
    GABRIEL.LANDESKOG16.4
    CONNOR.MCDAVID16.4
    TAYLOR.HALL16.2
    JAMIE.BENN16.1
    SEAN.MONAHAN15.5
    CLAUDE.GIROUX15.2
    VLADIMIR.TARASENKO15.1
    ARTEMI.PANARIN14.8
    ALEX.WENNBERG14.5
    JOHNNY.GAUDREAU14.4
    ALEX.DEBRINCAT14.1
    SEAN.COUTURIER13.5
    EVGENY.DADONOV13.3
    ANDREW.LADD13.3
    MARK.STONE13.1

    Dustin Brown eh?

    Hi Taylor.

    Hi Alex.

    Karlsson is a beauty. I really enjoyed watching him play. Columbus must be a bit sick about that one.

  87. Gret99zky says:

    Jonathan Willis

    Verified account

    @JonathanWillis
    2h2 hours ago
    More Jonathan Willis Retweeted CapFriendly
    Edmonton finishes the season with $8.6 million in cap space, the third-largest number in the NHL (behind ARI and CAR).

  88. OilClog says:

    Lucic costed more then money to sign if you read the rest of the story after the opening paragraph.

    Oilers had a cheap Maroon producing with Mcdavid, while Hall was showing Leon what a thoroughbred is.

    Oilers “needed” a culture change and the magical long sought after unicorn appeared on the horizon in all his Braun and glory.

    Oilers forever dreaming of becoming a big tough team finally could have their mythical beast, but one problem.. they had a thoroughbred in the beasts spot.

    Oilers math, mythical beast horn can easily stab the thoroughbred into oblivion and the masses would forget they ever had such a lame creature with no mythical bedazzled horn.

    One day while riding on the OBC Lowe was strumming through YouTube videos of the glory days and came across a young Connor Mcdavid being interview, the words Milan Lucic were heard.

    The rest is history.

    Mythical beast year 2, 10 goals
    Lame No horn, 39 goals
    His midget donkey friend, 26 goals

    Oilers -55 goals.

    10 goals produced playing alongside one of the leagues best set of middlemen.

    Lucic has taken a jump off the cliff, the Oilers cannot waste another week, month, or any part of a regular season playing Lucic in the top 6. He’s not what they call a scoring winger anymore.

    When he was Hot before Christmas, 3 goals a month. Aim higher.

  89. godot10 says:

    Bryan: Karlsson is a beauty.I really enjoyed watching him play.Columbus must be a bit sick about that one.

    Columbus wanted to get rid of Clarkson’s contract, and leave their goaltending and defense intact. So they they chose to lose a forward. Kekelainen can identify forwards…he did it in Ottawa (Hossa, Havlat, etc), St. Louis (Oshie, Backes, Tarasenko, Schwartz, Berglund, Perron) and now in Carolina.
    He pretty much has the best eye for forward talent in the last twenty years.

  90. Pescador says:

    Gret99zky,

    We can count on Talbot next year. *Agreed!
    Sekera will be fully rehabbed and ready to make an impact next year. *Go Sek!
    Drai will earn every penny of his $8.5M next year. *Absolutely.
    Everyone will be healthy next year. *Virgin sacrifice required.
    Todd deserves another season, he is a good coach. *Clown Cannon.
    Chia will make those tweak trades he’s really good at. *Hopefully.
    Lucic will bounce back. *Doubtful.
    Darnell will sign a team friendly contract. *Friendly Bridge.
    Puljujarvi will score 25 next year. *20 is not unreasonable.
    Russell can play the right side. *3RD 11min/ night
    Yamamoto will make the top six out of camp. *3rd L RW.
    Montoya is good enough. *Nope.
    This new draft pick will be plug and play. *Send Dobson back to Jr.
    We will make the playoff next year, guaranteed. *Playoff bubble team.

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ok, here is every RHD who has played at least 1500 minutes over the past two seasons and had a positive Relative Teammate GF%

    Again, this isn’t the burning bush.

    We need context, especially who they played against and who they played with.

    This is all of them, then I will pull out the 3rd pairing Dmen:

    Player RelT GF%
    TREVOR.VAN RIEMSDYK 12.0
    JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.2
    ROBERT.BORTUZZO 10.0
    JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 9.5
    JOSH.MANSON 8.9
    DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.7
    BRANDON.MONTOUR 8.6
    JAKE.DOTCHIN 7.5
    MATT.BENNING 7.4
    CHRIS.TANEV 7.2
    DREW.DOUGHTY 6.5
    MATT.DUMBA 6.1
    BRETT.PESCE 6.1
    CODY.FRANSON 5.2
    RADKO.GUDAS 4.9
    RYAN.ELLIS 4.8
    BRENT.BURNS 4.0
    SHEA.WEBER 3.9
    ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
    ALEX.PETROVIC 3.7
    DAVID.SAVARD 3.6
    ANTON.STRALMAN 3.6
    ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.6
    JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.1
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.8
    BEN.LOVEJOY 2.8
    MATT.NISKANEN 2.7
    BRENT.SEABROOK 2.4
    CONNOR.CARRICK 2.2
    TROY.STECHER 2.1
    ERIK.KARLSSON 1.8
    MARK.PYSYK 1.7
    JASON.DEMERS 1.4
    RASMUS.RISTOLAINEN 1.3
    TYSON.BARRIE 1.2
    MICHAEL.STONE 0.6
    COLIN.MILLER 0.5
    MIKE.GREEN 0.5
    P.K..SUBBAN 0.5
    JACOB.TROUBA 0.3

    Now I will remove all the Dmen who were mostly 3rd pair/sheltered

    That leaves us with these guys.

    I have starred (*) the guys who might not be too dear to acquire:

    Player RelT GF%
    JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.2
    JOSH.MANSON 8.9
    DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.7
    BRANDON.MONTOUR 8.6
    JAKE.DOTCHIN 7.5
    CHRIS.TANEV 7.2 **
    DREW.DOUGHTY 6.5
    MATT.DUMBA 6.1
    BRETT.PESCE 6.1
    RADKO.GUDAS 4.9 **
    RYAN.ELLIS 4.8
    BRENT.BURNS 4.0
    SHEA.WEBER 3.9
    ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
    ALEX.PETROVIC 3.7 **
    DAVID.SAVARD 3.6
    ANTON.STRALMAN 3.6
    ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.6
    JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.1
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.8
    BEN.LOVEJOY 2.8
    MATT.NISKANEN 2.7
    BRENT.SEABROOK 2.4
    ERIK.KARLSSON 1.8
    MARK.PYSYK 1.7 **
    JASON.DEMERS 1.4 **
    RASMUS.RISTOLAINEN 1.3
    TYSON.BARRIE 1.2
    COLIN.MILLER 0.5 **
    P.K..SUBBAN 0.5
    JACOB.TROUBA 0.3

    Need to be careful here too and make sure that no one fell off a cliff and is posting a good number from two years ago.

    Demers went for a 3rd liner. Man, Peter missed the boat there.

    Petrovic and Gudas have some 3rd pair minutes in their sample, but have played enough top 4 to qualify imo

    Savard had a terrible year this year and I`d be wary.

    Seabrook is good this year and last, but that contract man…….

    If CGY moves Hamilton, you have to be involved. That said his main partner Gio rates better and how much of Hamilton`s number is actually Gio would need to be figured out.

    Larsson looks good here, especially given 1st pair minutes.

    Boychuck had a bad year too, is old and has a big contract…pass

    Barrie is the goods. Remember this is 5v5, and he adds value 5v4 too. A lot of his minutes are 1st pair (due to frequent Johnson injuries) with a shitty partner as well. Tyutin/Beauchimin last year and Zadarov/Nemeth this year.

    Klingberg is quietly ridiculous. He’s what everyone thinks Karlsson is.

    I like this metric because its what you create minus what you give up.

    Everyone gets hung up on “create” and ignores “gives up”

  92. Mr DeBakey says:

    godot10: Zach Kassian is a 75% overpaid 4th liner on a cap crunched team with two more years left. If you can trade him, you do.

    I have Kassian overpaid by about $1,000,000 [relative to role/results].
    I also assume he’s been playing injured.
    Every NHL team needs a bit of everything in their line-up. Kassian brings toughness with skill and is fairly tough to replace.

    I have Nugent, Sekera & Russel at $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 overpaid.
    Strome at $2,000,000.
    Lucic at $5,000,000.

    Your mileage may vary.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bryan: Karlsson is a beauty.I really enjoyed watching him play.Columbus must be a bit sick about that one.

    He’s had an amazing year.

    Beware of 1050 PDOs though as they don’t tend to repeat.

  94. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Doesn’t help that EDM doesn’t have much for RD when Klefbom wasn’t playing with Larsson

    Last year his GF% was only really poor with Gryba(AHLer) and Russell(Off-hand).

    This year his GF% was poor with Bear(first few games, still belongs in AHL), Russell once again, and with Larsson while the pair sported a 54.79 xGF%.

    If I’m EDM, I play:

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-XXXX
    Sekera-Benning

    hoping that Sekera bounces back. Russell is a big blockade. Could that fill be Franson? 32YO Green? trade perhaps

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilin4,

    I’ll answer one at a time here:

    1. Does this stat account for penalty +/-. These usually zoom Klef and Connor

    No, its just the aggregate of GF% With and Without Yous

    2. Does this account for PDO?

    No. The first thing you do is check PDO, but remember PDO doesn’t center on 1000 for all players, just the aggregate.

    This metric is best used in 2+ year samples so PDO can wash out a bit.

    3. Any idea why there’s such a differential between Klef’s showing here and some pretty decent possession stats? Possession-wise you could say he was better this year than last:

    2016.17 CF% 50.6
    2017.18 CF% 52.6

    2016.17 FF% 52.0
    2017.18 FF% 53.3

    2016.16 CFRel 0.6
    2017.18 CFRel 1.7

    2016.17 FFRel 1.3
    2018.18 FFRel 1.9

    2016.17 PDO 100.5
    2017.18 PDO 96.8

    To me the culprit on Klef is pretty obvious. Plus it’s a gorgeous contract.

    I think Klef is a shitty defender of the RIckibox. He being injured often obscures what he actually is though.

    Notice that in Klef’s healthy year last year he had a 1005 PDO, and his RelTeammate GF% was still -0.85.

    Even more telling is that in 16/17 we saw this:

    16/17
    Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
    Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
    Larsson w/o Klef 57.6% GF

    He was zoomed GF% wise by Larsson in a big way.

    Klef isn’t a 1st pairing defender (yet) and he’s never had good success in that spot unless with Larsson.

    We can’t just wave away his results with “PDO” because his results repeat over and over each year.

    I think we’re blinded by his dreaminess and his offensive abilities, but he’s never been good at an important part of his job.

    I think they can keep him 2nd pair and get him some better coaching, a good partner on 2nd pair an he’ll thrive though.

    I hope.

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Doesn’t help that EDM doesn’t have much for RD when Klefbom wasn’t playing with Larsson

    Last year his GF% was only really poor with Gryba(AHLer) and Russell(Off-hand).

    This year his GF% was poor with Bear(first few games, still belongs in AHL), Russell once again, and with Larsson while the pair sported a 54.79 xGF%.

    If I’m EDM, I play:

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-XXXX
    Sekera-Benning

    hoping that Sekera bounces back. Russell is a big blockade. Could that fill be Franson? 32YO Green? trade perhaps

    Agreed.

    Franson is too slow.

    Green needs more sheltering that Benning.

    I wish Peter would have grabbed Demers.

    I love me some Gudas too and Petrovic might work there.

    Ideally EDM picks up Tanev.

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Tanev
    Sekera-Benning

    That’s a Dcorps that can play for a pennant imo.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: Bettman shared it at the Flames Season ticket luncheon, in response to question on analytics on hockey.

    Thanks.

    I’ll keep my eyes open for that.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: From last weeks 31 Thoughts from Friedman

    4. Entering Wednesday’s games, Edmonton had 127 points from defencemen, 27th in the NHL. (Nashville is best, at 195.) That is something the Oilers will address in the off-season. It’s a priority.
    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks-daniel-henrik-sedin-retirement/

    i.e. The Oilers management and coaching are misdiagnosing the problem again.The above is mostly power play points, which is a coaching problem, not a D problem.And paying for power play points for a D when you have McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins, who should be driving the power play is dumb.

    i.e. MacT let Petry walk.i.e. Chiarelli and McLellan let Schultz walk.

    And now we are likely to lose a valuable asset to trade for something that is not really value added.

    100% agree.

    Dmen points are the White Whales of the NHL.

  99. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk,

    – True: you don’t bank on Lucic to return, but allow for the possibility.

    – In the top-9 we have: McD, Drai, RNH, Strome, Lucic, Pool, Kailer, Jar, Caggs, Cammi (or replacement), another guy, Rattie, Sleppy?

    – That around 13 guys, some are certain, lots of options and playing styles. Ideally Pool is ready to be full-time 2RW in his 3rd year. Kailer, you put him on a soft-3rd line.

  100. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: From last weeks 31 Thoughts from Friedman

    4. Entering Wednesday’s games, Edmonton had 127 points from defencemen, 27th in the NHL. (Nashville is best, at 195.) That is something the Oilers will address in the off-season. It’s a priority.
    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks-daniel-henrik-sedin-retirement/

    i.e. The Oilers management and coaching are misdiagnosing the problem again.The above is mostly power play points, which is a coaching problem, not a D problem.And paying for power play points for a D when you have McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins, who should be driving the power play is dumb.

    i.e. MacT let Petry walk.i.e. Chiarelli and McLellan let Schultz walk.

    And now we are likely to lose a valuable asset to trade for something that is not really value added.

    Amen. Although it would be nice to get a RHD who adds offence, the price you pay for Barrie and Faulk just isn’t worth it. Just get a guy who’s good in his own end and can transition the puck effectively. Of course, all bets are off for me if it’s Karlsson.

    RHD is our biggest need, other than a backup goalie which should be cheap, but please be smart about it.

  101. McSorley33 says:

    Will Sekera bounce back?

    Probably. But he turns 32 in two months.

    Lucic. Will he bounce back?

    Maybe. Turns 30 and is a power forward.

    If your counting on these players, in the new NHL, to deliver your making a poor
    Bet.

    Just so many holes…..a good chunk of them self-inflicted.

  102. N64 says:

    Gret99zky:
    Jonathan Willis

    Verified account

    @JonathanWillis2h2 hours ago
    More Jonathan Willis Retweeted CapFriendly
    Edmonton finishes the season with $8.6 million in cap space, the third-largest number in the NHL (behind ARI and CAR).

    ~ Thanks Chia for buying out Pouliot and keeping him on the books an extra year. Genius move to make room for all of our 2017-18 wingers ~

  103. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Kris \Russel, Lucic and Sek all only cost money to sign:

    1) Russel: He played fine this year, generated some EV offense (most on team), his possessio numbers were close to even, he is still versatile, he blocks a lot of players from having to be too far up, he’s tradeable after this year: you trade Russel, and your just going to find his replacement

    2) Sek: trading away a player who was injured?His CF was better than last year, his CFrel was the best its been since he joined: his PDO was awful at 93, one of the worste in the league. He too is tradeable after next year.If he can’t recover from his injury, then it a problem

    3) Lucic: before Christmas he was posting 1st line 5×5.While is might have hit a wall, he is still goingto be somewhere between pre-Christmas Lucic and post: he’s not Anton Lander offence

    – But more importantly, all three have not trade clauses.

    – Sure we would ove to trade Sek for Trouba, or Russel for a RHD. It just isn’t going to happen.

    – Setting up the expectation that we have to trade 3 players who re still NHL players, that all have NTC, is setting up a false expectation I believe.Save Russel, they both have had awful years, and are both candidates to bounce back, and their numbers suggest so.

    – Of all the off-season worries, these 3 players, all NHL’ers, trying to trade them on pennies for the dollar, and thinking moving them given their status, and for Sek and Lucic injured.

    – We need 2nd line winger, and we need another top-4D.Aren’t Sek and Lucic likely to be those?

    If he fully recovers by fall Sekera is a top 4 dman. Easy.
    In my opinion Lucic has not been a top 6 forward since he got to Edmonton. Yes he scored at a respectable level last year, but a lot of that was driven by power play scoring. He simply doesn’t have the basic puck and skating skills to play on a scoring line. And he really hasn’t had them for most of his time in Edmonton.
    I never really watched this player closely before he got to Edmonton, but my sense of him at the time of the signing was that he was this big guy, who was an awkward skater, but he created a lot of room for himself and others by physically scaring the shit out of opponents in the ozone.
    After watching him for the first month in Edmonton I was amazed that any NHL GM would give this player that kind of contract.
    He is not a top 6 forward and never will be again.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Woodg

    Agreed 100%. If they trade for a Barrie type I see disappointment. Maybe a better PP but I doubt better overall, especially in goal diff which is how you get to playoffs.

    Two way puck mover, adequate offense. There is enough up front to make a well coached PP work as is.

  105. Bryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s had an amazing year.

    Beware of 1050 PDOs though as they don’t tend to repeat.

    For sure. He looks like a guy who’s confidence is through the roof at the moment. The play definitely runs through him when he’s on the ice.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Woodguy

    Thanks for this, great stuff.

    LT has said how single events skew our perspective on players. I think that is a two way street – single good plays can skew us to see a player good when overall he is not really helping.

    Your data lines up with how I see the game. Larsson I have mentioned would be in the Norris convo if he was just a little quicker. He has offensive acumen but just not the quickness needed by most players at the NHL level to execute consistently. He is a beauty and more than a defensive type. Still not worth Hall.

    When he’s on he’s usually efficient and the puck is going the right direction. To me a sign of the best players is that you don’t notice them doing it, effortless looking and smooth.

    It’s also how I see some of the forwards. I admire Cags pluck but he loses so many battles overall it sinks the few good plays he makes a game, at least for top 6 usage.

    Slepy I see much better overall, if only he could get that shot to pay. He’s intelligent on the ice as I see JP, going to the right areas. Breaking up breakouts regularly. Consistency and execution are an issue for both, but I see more ceiling to help a club win the possession battle and bring down GA if used and developed properly.

    I also haven’t seen Lucic bad for a while despite his struggles. He is playing the right way, but I don’t think he can feel the puck on his stick right now. It’s messing up his passing and shooting. The rest of the his game is there. He also isn’t that slow after watching him live, at least the game I saw. Of course not fast.

  107. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Marody has been signed to a 3-year ELC.

    Great stuff.

    I watched 3 Michigan games after we acquired him and really liked his game.

    No sure thing but he is a real prospect – will be great to add him to the influx of talent in to Bakersfield next season.

    Not quite the same, But I was hoping for big things out of Joseph Gambardella when he signed with us. The stats are similar for both players but Joseph was a little older.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170491 Marody

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=150296 Gambardella

  108. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Agreed 100%. If they trade for a Barrie type I see disappointment. Maybe a better PP but I doubt better overall, especially in goal diff which is how you get to playoffs.

    Two way puck mover, adequate offense. There is enough up front to make a well coached PP work as is.

    Didn’t see WGa numbers on Barrie, maybe he’s better than I thought. I still would only go there if it didn’t in involve a major piece and/or took a contract that needs to be moved, but why would they do that?

  109. rickithebear says:

    Wood:

    Klefbom bottom 30 HD dman dragging down a top 5 HD dman
    Crazy?
    3 years late buddy

    Try 2 Top 5 HD Dmen
    Fayne and Larson.

    We are good at questioning the skill of our most consistent baseline repeatable Dmen.
    Souray
    Fistric
    Fayne
    Sekera
    Larson
    Russell

    Woodguy!
    You are catching up.
    Slowly!
    Very Slowly?

  110. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 100% agree.

    Dmen points are the White Whales of the NHL.

    Offensive Dmen are Offensive.

    You guys are 8 years behind on this one.

    Only took you 6 years of me beating this drum.

    Forget slowly!

    Very very very very slowly.

    I told you years ago as you went thru your dbase you would start to see my observed theories.

    Very very very very slowly.

    I expected it faster than that.

    Now try to figure out open/closed shot theory.

    0% corsi dmen.

    I spoon fed you these ones.

    What scientific mind takes 2 mechanisms with 512 varied means and ranges for players. Expect them all to regress to 1000.

    You take the mean save % established by dmen.
    And
    Mean HDOSH% to establish expected individual performance.

    When you add them.
    How many regress to 1000.

  111. rickithebear says:

    PDO:
    Is for the masses who do not care for accurate, real analytics.
    It is a disgrace to those who try to advance the hockey analytics world.

  112. YKOil says:

    Pescador: The roster requires 3 significant upgrades minimum.
    Scoring winger for Draisaitl / 2RD for now and forever, same as it ever was / Improved Backup
    That’s what is required to even make the playoffs ext year IMO.
    There is no Cap space, Bridge Nurse and trade Russell

    My opinion only but I think PC could have pushed hard for Colin Miller from the expansion draft and he would have been a perfect RD for us and would have allowed PC to modulate his (perceived) need to sign Russell. Miller was cheap. The expansion draft, for the Oilers, was a fiasco as far as I am concerned. No reason they shouldn’t have come out of that with Miller and, maybe, Marchessault. Take them over Russell and Yamamoto any day.

    Florida is a team to watch this year – what will Petrovic cost them? It should be reasonable but does Florida look at Pysyk and Petrovic and decide they don’t need both? Pysyk already has a reasonable contract. Neither player should cost a boatload in assets.

    I would vastly prefer a 6-8 year deal for Nurse in the $4.5 million range but a bridge deal does open up the option of making smaller moves and it shouldn’t be discounted as a viable strategy.

    For instance: bridging Nurse and trading Kassian means that $2-3 million in extra Cap space is available and that gives the Oilers some room to shore up one spot or make smaller bets on two spots. It also means the Oilers don’t have to deal with the NMCs just yet.

    I do not like the idea of trading Klefbom at all and if he is traded it has to be a trade we win. The 1st rounder is a bigger question mark in my mind and will my thoughts could be heavily affected by the lottery.

    Whether we like it or not the team WILL improve just by virtue of Sekera, Lucic and Talbot all having slightly better years so taking a breath and not doing anything IS an option.

    Needless to say, doing something just for the sake of doing something is not advisable. With PC in charge I half expect this outcome, yay for us.

  113. Confused says:

    Lots of mixed messages, e.g. Petrovic cannot pass the puck, he is almost the definition of a non-puck mover.

  114. Glass says:

    Would any of you do JP for Hamilton? Calgary needs RW badly. Ideally you’d then draft a Wahlstrom, but he’d probably be just out of range. Perhaps even trading your 1st for a young RW.

    Dumba, Barrie, Ristolainen and Hamilton have appeal, but the cost is probably to dear.

    Chia really put us in a tough spot… if you trade Nuge our top 6 becomes VERY thin.

  115. Lowetide says:

    I agree with YK Oil.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    No. You’ve been completely wrong on this issue. When Faynes and grybas rule the world you can claim you’ve been right all along

    I’ve been saying that defensemen points causes them to get paid so get the ones that are better in the other two zones then they are in the o zone. Get defensemen that can pass skate and defend,Not just defend. The way you have been saying is get guys that stand in front of the net and hit the puck up the boards and out

  117. Wilde says:

    rickithebear:

    What scientific mind takes 2 mechanisms with 512 varied means and ranges for players. Expect them all to regress to 1000.

    Toward, not to, my friend.

  118. rickithebear says:

    1. Situational usage: 512 groups Situational means and ranges based on Desjardins team, comp, and my modified ZS.
    1a. Modified ZS
    2. HD shot theory: A density based measure.
    3. Elite HD Dmen
    4. Gm by Gm goalie performance. Using Avg shot density vs GA curve to extrapolate performance.
    5. Dpr Establish expected save% (GA) goalies perform around.
    6. Table hockey movement goalies: John van Biesbrook & Roy established high hit goalie rates.
    7. Open/ closed shot theory.
    7a. CA a function of offensive failure.
    8. Belichek and Me. You want best baseline repeatable performance. Staples had a poor version.
    9. False Eye affect: individuals using dramatic poor events to establish performance.
    10. 0% Corsi
    11. Elite 0% corsi Dmen
    12. Offensive Dmen are offensive
    13. Odmen the anti HD dman.
    14. High danger open shot theory
    15. True shot chart
    16. HDOSH D/goalie unit
    17. Gm by gm goalie performance based on HDOSH density vs GA.
    18. System affect on CF and CA numbers
    19. Modifying CF&CA for bench change decisions.
    More to follow…..

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Klefbom via Gregor’s twitter:


    “They went in and basically vacuumed out the shoulder. There was 22 bone fragments. I got great news with only six week recovery so I will be ready and healthy next year.” Klefbom on shoulder surgery.#Oilers

    22 bone fragments!!!!!

    He’s had the shoulder issue for his whole career.

    Maybe it’s why he’s bad at defending the rickibox?

  120. jtblack says:

    CALEN ADDISON is draft eligble. MIGHT be around for Oilers 2nd round pick. RHD.

    I watched him make 5 or 6 ; 70 ft passes last night. one step out from behind his net and BAM on the tape at the far blueline. He makes it look effortless.
    Silky smooth player I think he could be the next Duncan Keith.

    He’s still 17. 10 pts in 7 playoff games so far. After 65 pts in 68 gms during the season.

    OILERS need to find Potential IMPACT Players outside of Round 1. This is one to watch.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Doesn’t help that EDM doesn’t have much for RD when Klefbom wasn’t playing with Larsson

    Last year his GF% was only really poor with Gryba(AHLer) and Russell(Off-hand).

    This year his GF% was poor with Bear(first few games, still belongs in AHL), Russell once again, and with Larsson while the pair sported a 54.79 xGF%.

    If I’m EDM, I play:

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-XXXX
    Sekera-Benning

    hoping that Sekera bounces back. Russell is a big blockade. Could that fill be Franson? 32YO Green? trade perhaps

    That’s fair.

    Last year when he was with Benning and Gryba he was playing 3rd pair.

    Even with a rookie (and Benning was a good rookie) he should kill those minutes, and he did with Benning, but not as much with Gryba, but goals in that small of sample don’t mean much.

    Klefbom history suggests trouble defending.

    We’ll see this fall (even if he isn’t an Oiler) how much the shoulder was an issue.

  122. Wilde says:

    jtblack,

    I’m high on Addison as well. Secretly hoping he doesn’t generate too much buzz in the WHL playoffs.

    Woodguy v2.0,

    If his shoulder’s not a problem anymore, he needs to be shipped out immediately.

    Might as well burn all his jerseys too. You can’t be an Oiler with functional shoulders.

  123. Bling says:

    Glass:
    Would any of you do JP for Hamilton? Calgary needs RW badly. Ideally you’d then draft a Wahlstrom, but he’d probably be just out of range. Perhaps even trading your 1st for a young RW.

    Dumba, Barrie, Ristolainen and Hamilton have appeal, but the cost is probably to dear.

    Chia really put us in a tough spot… if you trade Nuge our top 6 becomes VERY thin.

    No.

    JP is trending in a good direction, and IMO is on track to become a force at evens next season. He’s a very unique player type, and if we give up on him now there’s a chance we won’t see another like him for another decade or so.

    There is some risk with him, obviously, but IMO the potential upside is too much to give up on.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    Woodguy!
    You are catching up.
    Slowly!
    Very Slowly?

    You’ve been saying that for 8 years..

    Also,

    You still over value 3rd pairing Dmen.

    QoT and QoC have massive influence on results.

    Everyone has their blind spot.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear: Offensive Dmen are Offensive.

    You guys are 8 years behind on this one.

    Only took you 6 years of me beating this drum.

    Forget slowly!

    Very very very very slowly.

    I told you years ago as you went thru your dbase you would start to see my observed theories.

    Very very very very slowly.

    I expected it faster than that.

    Now try to figure out open/closed shot theory.

    0% corsi dmen.

    I spoon fed you these ones.

    What scientific mind takes 2 mechanisms with 512 varied means and ranges for players. Expect them all to regress to 1000.

    You take the mean save % established by dmen.
    And
    Mean HDOSH% to establish expected individual performance.

    When you add them.
    How many regress to 1000.

    Tyler wrote his piece that I referred to earlier in the thread in 2013 when Stralman was still playing for NYR but coming up on free agency.

    You forget!!

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear:
    PDO:
    Is for the masses who do not care for accurate, real analytics.
    It is a disgrace to those who try to advance the hockey analytics world.

    PDO is still a really good “first check” when examining results.

    Example from this thread is Karlsson lighting the world on fire in Vegas.

    PDOs of 1050 are giant warning lights with sirens blaring

  127. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Klefbom via Gregor’s twitter:


    “They went in and basically vacuumed out the shoulder. There was 22 bone fragments. I got great news with only six week recovery so I will be ready and healthy next year.” Klefbom on shoulder surgery.#Oilers

    22 bone fragments!!!!!

    He’s had the should issue for his whole career.

    Maybe it’s why he’s bad at defending the rickibox?

    Much of the problem with Klefbom is coaching.

    I say. Go ask Willis. He was in OKC the year Klefbom arrived. Klefbom was loose defensively, like he is now when he started. But Nelson dialed him in over the course of the year, and by the falling year, his game was solid, and Nelson finally began to give him power play time. He was called up after 10 games, and began playing with Schultz under Eakins, and many were calling him dreamy. And he was a rock at the end of the year when Nelson took over. And at the beginning of the following season when McLellan took over. In fact, the thought was, when he went down with the infection, his loss was a bigger loss than McDavid (because Hall and Draisaitl were motoring).

    McLellan and Johnson don’t know how to dial in Klefbom’s game like Nelson could and did.

  128. Wilde says:

    When’s the last time a team had a 300 GF season?

    e: looks like Washington 2010, was wondering what company TBY would have if they hit 300

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde,

    Healthy shoulders need not apply.

    Hmmmmm…..

    Actually I think you need to have shoulder surgery to be a True Oiler.

    Can’t trade him now!!

  130. sliderule says:

    Gret99zky:
    Jonathan Willis

    Verified account

    @JonathanWillis2h2 hours ago
    More Jonathan Willis Retweeted CapFriendly
    Edmonton finishes the season with $8.6 million in cap space, the third-largest number in the NHL (behind ARI and CAR).

    When you are paying 120 million for a house you have to find the money for down payment somewhere.

  131. godot10 says:

    godot10: Much of the problem with Klefbom is coaching.

    I say.Go ask Willis.He was in OKC the year Klefbom arrived.Klefbom was loose defensively, like he is now when he started.But Nelson dialed him in over the course of the year, and by the falling year, his game was solid, and Nelson finally began to give him power play time.He was called up after 10 games, and began playing with Schultz under Eakins, and many were calling him dreamy.And he was a rock at the end of the year when Nelson took over.And at the beginning of the following season when McLellan took over.In fact, the thought was, when he went down with the infection, his loss was a bigger loss than McDavid (because Hall and Draisaitl were motoring).

    McLellan and Johnson don’t know how to dial in Klefbom’s game like Nelson could and did.

    Just like Nurse’s game got less dialed in over the course of the season as Oates’ influence waned, and one is hearing McLellan and Johnson voices every day.

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Much of the problem with Klefbom is coaching.

    I say.Go ask Willis.He was in OKC the year Klefbom arrived.Klefbom was loose defensively, like he is now when he started.But Nelson dialed him in over the course of the year, and by the falling year, his game was solid, and Nelson finally began to give him power play time.He was called up after 10 games, and began playing with Schultz under Eakins, and many were calling him dreamy.And he was a rock at the end of the year when Nelson took over.And at the beginning of the following season when McLellan took over.In fact, the thought was, when he went down with the infection, his loss was a bigger loss than McDavid (because Hall and Draisaitl were motoring).

    McLellan and Johnson don’t know how to dial in Klefbom’s game like Nelson could and did.

    There’s some truth to that.

    Eakins was magical with the TOI of Klefbom and Schultz when they were together though.

    Gave them the most minutes AND the easiest match ups.

    Good coaching job.

    Similar to what Sullivan has done with him in PIT.

  133. rickithebear says:

    Wilde: Toward, not to, my friend.

    .1000 gives false accuracy.
    The true combined range of
    .0145 to .0035 = .011
    .899 to .932 = .033
    Combined range is .044 22.7 times smaller than

    Real PDO is
    Look at established HDOSH save% mean.
    Compared to actual goalie save %

    Look at expected HDOSH%
    Compared to actual

  134. GMB3 says:

    frjohnk: If it comes out that Lucic was injured all year then a bounce back to being a top 6 forward is a good possibility.

    If he wasnt injured Im not sure how he bounces back to being a top 6 forward.He trained with Terell Owens last summer to get faster, but that didnt work as he was slow to pucks all year.

    As for his “scoring at first line rates at the beginning of the year” he really wasnt driving much of the play then, he was benefitting from a healthy RNH who was driving play/running a bit of shooting PDO heater.

    He got a bit lucky in getting assists at a first line rate at the beginning of the year and then got unlucky the rest of the way.

    I dont think his play changed much all year. His zone exits were not good all year, he would make errant passes in all 3 zones every game.Many times he was just a step too slow for a scoring chance.I love when he is the 22 year old Lucic but that only happened a few times during the year.

    We are married to Lucic for the next few years, and I bet he scores more than the 1 goal he scored in the last46 games, I just dont think we should be looking for him to a top 6 forward next year.If it happens, great, but the smart plan is to get someone else who can play with either McDavid or Drai.

    Does anyone else find training with a former wide receiver with unbelievable natural gifts as a bit of an odd choice for a bulky and slow hockey player?

    We train a lot of junior and several pro hockey guys, and we train a lot of football players here. There is a marked difference in how we program for both. The demands of the sports aren’t similar.

    Did Lucic move down to the states to train with TO? Or did he periodically go visit him and then follow his program back in wherever his off season home is? If he’s willing to move to train, he should look at heading to train with Roberts and co. It would be the right atmosphere, plenty of elite NHLers all train there, it could be the right move to get his career back on track.

  135. Oilin4 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Oilin4,

    I’ll answer one at a time here:

    1. Does this stat account for penalty +/-. These usually zoom Klef and Connor

    No, its just the aggregate of GF% With and Without Yous

    2. Does this account for PDO?

    No.The first thing you do is check PDO, but remember PDO doesn’t center on 1000 for all players, just the aggregate.

    This metric is best used in 2+ year samples so PDO can wash out a bit.

    3. Any idea why there’s such a differential between Klef’s showing here and some pretty decent possession stats? Possession-wise you could say he was better this year than last:


    2016.17 CF% 50.6
    2017.18 CF% 52.6

    2016.17 FF% 52.0
    2017.18 FF% 53.3

    2016.16 CFRel 0.6
    2017.18 CFRel 1.7

    2016.17 FFRel 1.3
    2018.18 FFRel 1.9

    2016.17 PDO 100.5
    2017.18 PDO 96.8

    To me the culprit on Klef is pretty obvious. Plus it’s a gorgeous contract.

    I think Klef is a shitty defender of the RIckibox.He being injured often obscures what he actually is though.

    Notice that in Klef’s healthy year last year he had a 1005 PDO, and his RelTeammate GF% was still -0.85.

    Even more telling is that in 16/17 we saw this:

    16/17
    Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
    Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
    Larsson w/o Klef 57.6% GF

    He was zoomed GF% wise by Larsson in a big way.

    Klef isn’t a 1st pairing defender (yet) and he’s never had good success in that spot unless with Larsson.

    Wecan’t just wave away his results with “PDO” because his results repeat over and over each year.

    I think we’re blinded by his dreaminess and his offensive abilities, but he’s never been good at an important part of his job.

    I think they can keep him 2nd pair and get him some better coaching, a good partner on 2nd pair an he’ll thrive though.

    I hope.

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Oilin4,

    I’ll answer one at a time here:

    1. Does this stat account for penalty +/-. These usually zoom Klef and Connor

    No, its just the aggregate of GF% With and Without Yous

    2. Does this account for PDO?

    No.The first thing you do is check PDO, but remember PDO doesn’t center on 1000 for all players, just the aggregate.

    This metric is best used in 2+ year samples so PDO can wash out a bit.

    3. Any idea why there’s such a differential between Klef’s showing here and some pretty decent possession stats? Possession-wise you could say he was better this year than last:


    2016.17 CF% 50.6
    2017.18 CF% 52.6

    2016.17 FF% 52.0
    2017.18 FF% 53.3

    2016.16 CFRel 0.6
    2017.18 CFRel 1.7

    2016.17 FFRel 1.3
    2018.18 FFRel 1.9

    2016.17 PDO 100.5
    2017.18 PDO 96.8

    To me the culprit on Klef is pretty obvious. Plus it’s a gorgeous contract.

    I think Klef is a shitty defender of the RIckibox.He being injured often obscures what he actually is though.

    Notice that in Klef’s healthy year last year he had a 1005 PDO, and his RelTeammate GF% was still -0.85.

    Even more telling is that in 16/17 we saw this:

    16/17
    Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
    Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
    Larsson w/o Klef 57.6% GF

    He was zoomed GF% wise by Larsson in a big way.

    Klef isn’t a 1st pairing defender (yet) and he’s never had good success in that spot unless with Larsson.

    Wecan’t just wave away his results with “PDO” because his results repeat over and over each year.

    I think we’re blinded by his dreaminess and his offensive abilities, but he’s never been good at an important part of his job.

    I think they can keep him 2nd pair and get him some better coaching, a good partner on 2nd pair an he’ll thrive though.

    I hope.

    Interesting. HIs RelGF% in 16.17 was against some pretty tough competition and he should get some credit for his ability to stay out of the box in such a role. It seems fair to say that Klef is a good offensive and possession defender (even against tough comp) prone to defensive lapses but not penalties. Pairing him with someone who can cover the net well but doesn’t bring much offensively (I wonder who that could be?) is an ideal fit. Not a 1LD but a very good 2LD on a beauty contract.

    I think part of his issue this year is they expected him to babysit youngsters and that just isn’t his game.

  136. frjohnk says:

    GMB3: Does anyone else find training with a former wide receiver with unbelievable natural gifts as a bit of an odd choice for a bulky and slow hockey player?

    We train a lot of junior and several pro hockey guys, and we train a lot of football players here. There is a marked difference in how we program for both. The demands of the sports aren’t similar.

    Did Lucic move down to the states to train with TO? Or did he periodically go visit him and then follow his program back in wherever his off season home is? If he’s willing to move to train, he should look at heading to train with Roberts and co. It would be the right atmosphere, plenty of elite NHLers all train there, it could be the right move to get his career back on track.

    The reports last summer were that Lucic had trained with Owens to get faster. I dont know any more of the details.

    Im thinking the reports got mixed up and what actually happened is that Lucic trained with EBERLES shooting coach from the summer of 16

  137. jm363561 says:

    Dear Mr Chiarelli – I am currently in Puglia, Italy (Trani to be precise). I see your name a lot here. Your relations all want to know why you gave Eric Gryba a two year contract, and why you bought out Benoit Pouliot.

    Ciao.

  138. Wilde says:

    Also did anyone else see Caggiula real gud last night?

  139. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Klefbom via Gregor’s twitter:


    “They went in and basically vacuumed out the shoulder. There was 22 bone fragments. I got great news with only six week recovery so I will be ready and healthy next year.” Klefbom on shoulder surgery.#Oilers

    22 bone fragments!!!!!

    He’s had the shoulder issue for his whole career.

    Maybe it’s why he’s bad at defending the rickibox?

    Does that not show up on an X ray? Like did they not know this until the surgery? I thought he already had a small procedure done on it. Wtf man. Shoulders.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Didn’t see WGa numbers on Barrie, maybe he’s better than I thought. I still would only go there if it didn’t in involve a major piece and/ortook a contract that needs to be moved, but why would they do that?

    Barrie’s RelTGF% over the past two years is slightly positive, he’s at the bottom of my list.

    I think that’s a very good thing as he:

    1) Played first pair often – Johnson has only played 112 games over the past 2 years

    2) Had terrible partners. A done Tyutin and a done Beauchimin last year with a Zadorov this year (who’s coming on a bit) and Nemeth who is a tweener.

    Tough minutes without high end help and comes out ahead. That’s good.

    Other context we need to remember is how terrible COL was last year so being a positive RelT GF% wasn’t a high bar to jump. This year was tougher.

    Barrie’s RelT GF% over the past 3 years:

    Total over 3 years:

    4023 5v5 minutes
    RelT GF% +2.02

    That’s a good result in a big sample.

    Broken down over the last 3 years:
    15/16 +3.86
    16/17 +1.70
    17/18 +0.39

    15/16 he played with Holden, who is “ok”. Not top 4, but not far off. Kinda like Russell.

    Johnson played 73 games in 15/16 so Barrie has less of the hard match ups as well.

    Decent partner + 2nd pair minutes and he gets a nice result.

    He’s the goods for 2nd pair 5v5 and his 5v4 would be a nice bonus.

    His 5v4 prowess is based on passing too which would help.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilin4:
    Interesting. HIs RelGF% in 16.17 was against some pretty tough competition and he should get some credit for his ability to stay out of the box in such a role. It seems fair to say that Klef is a good offensive and possession defender (even against tough comp) prone to defensive lapses but not penalties. Pairing him with someone who can cover the net well but doesn’t bring much offensively (I wonder who that could be?) is an ideal fit. Not a 1LD but a very good 2LD on a beauty contract.

    I think part of his issue this year is they expected him to babysit youngsters and that just isn’t his game.

    That’s fair.

    I think he’d be much better as 2LD too.

  142. GMB3 says:

    frjohnk: The reports last summer were that Lucic had trained with Owens to get faster.I dont know any more of the details.

    Im thinking the reports got mixed up and what actually happened is that Lucic trained with EBERLES shooting coach from the summer of 16

    What does a football player know about being fast on ice though. That’s my point. That’s such an eyewash training decision.

  143. Bling says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 100% agree.

    Dmen points are the White Whales of the NHL.

    This is exactly why I don’t want the Oilers to scratch that itch of an expensive to acquire RHD.

    Here is Klefbom/Benning (stats from Corsica.hockey):

    Minutes: 528
    CORSI%: 51.63
    CORSI_REL: 0.92
    GF%: 51.2
    xGF%: 51.98

    IMO, that is your second pair. I have been saying that Benning is a legit 2RHD. He has two years worth of good results. Tierny published a graph that showed him in league with Larsson.

    Also, Benning played minutes with Klef (528), Sekera (210), Auvitu (115), Russell (98), and Nurse (95).

    He was CORSI_REL negative only with Russell. He was only GF%<50 with Sekera (-8 at evens, ouch), but I attribute that to an injured Sekera.

    Sekera/Russell is a fine third pairing, with Auvitu as your #7.

    Now upgrade the wingers and the back-up goalie!

  144. Pescador says:

    jm363561:
    Dear Mr Chiarelli – I am currently in Puglia, Italy (Trani to be precise). I see your name a lot here. Your relations all want to know why you gave Eric Gryba a two year contract, and why you bought out Benoit Pouliot.

    Ciao.

    Mr Chiarelli is currently performing an audit on himself & asked me to answer on his behalf.
    Re: Eric Gryba, that was what his agent asked for.
    He also wanted you to know that he knows a thing or two about negotiating if there was ever a concern.
    Re. Pouliot, he is French

  145. Wilde says:

    Stauffer’s got a tweet up about common themes from his interviews with the players.

    One of them is the “weight of expectations” thing.

    Please get Todd McLellan the fuck away from these developing minds.

  146. Oilin4 says:

    Casual observation. When your argument hinges on Fayne > Klef or Fistric > Klef, need to question the assumptions that led to this argument.

  147. Bling says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, how is Benning at defending the rickibox?

  148. Wilde says:

    Wilde:
    Stauffer’s got a tweet up about common themes from his interviews with the players.

    One of them is the “weight of expectations” thing.

    Please get Todd McLellan the fuck away from these developing minds.

    16-17 team makes the playoffs.

    Todd McLellan: You’re not as good as they say you are.

    17-18 team expected to succeed.

    Todd McLellan: You’re never as good as they say you are.

  149. jm363561 says:

    To LT – thanks for the umpteenth time for making an unbearable season ….. errrh …. bearable, almost.

    Woodguy – your input (above) on Klefbom was yet another terrific post. Love them.

    Cassandra – if you are posting under another nomme de guerre ignore this but I missed your input. It was the tone you used that might be worked on (with TO haha) over the summer.

    I am off for a few months as I have no interest in prospects, or ideas for trading our crap for other teams stars. See y’all in October.

  150. jm363561 says:

    Pescador: Mr Chiarelli is currently performing an audit on himself & asked me to answer on his behalf.
    Re: Eric Gryba, that was what his agent asked for.
    He also wanted you to know that he knows a thing or two about negotiating if there was ever a concern.
    Re. Pouliot, he is French

    =====

    Grazie Mille.

  151. frjohnk says:

    Bling:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki, how is Benning at defending the rickibox?

    He is no Fistric.
    Fistric had a chastity belt on the Rickibox.

  152. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: PDO is still a really good “first check” when examining results.

    Example from this thread is Karlsson lighting the world on fire in Vegas.

    PDOs of 1050 are giant warning lights with sirens blaring

    He also has a 23% shooting pct. LOL

  153. GMB3 says:

    JimmyV1965: He also has a 23% shooting pct. LOL

    Legit scoring on a quarter of his shots. Mind bending stuff! I got offered him in fantasy hockey in around December and he was shooting around 28% and I told myself no way he doesn’t go ice cold after this.

    I was wrong.

    The guy who traded for him beat me in the finals of our league, third year in a row.

  154. Woogie63 says:

    Ben:
    There is absolutely zero evidence that Chiarelli can be trusted to fix his own mistakes.

    I’m more ambivalent about the coaching, which was given three, max four, top-six forwards to work with.

    He did win a Stanley Cup, I hear that is a thing?

  155. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3: Legit scoring on a quarter of his shots. Mind bending stuff! I got offered him in fantasy hockey in around December and he was shooting around 28% and I told myself no way he doesn’t go ice cold after this.

    I was wrong.

    The guy who traded for him beat me in the finals of our league, third year in a row.

    Just make sure you’re not the guy who takes him next year.

  156. Wilde says:

    Looks like Kovalchuk’s looking for term if I’m reading things right, but Radulov was too and didn’t get it

  157. Dee Dee says:

    The season has certainly been a disappointment as an Oiler fan but something very interesting happened this year. And I’m talking about Hockey, and the league itself.

    A gamer would call this phenomenon “The Meta”. And what happened this year in hockey is the Meta shifted.

    Now this happens all the time. But in the past, the Meta followed the Stanley Cup winners and the teams that lost altered themselves to follow the habits of the winning team.

    The Devils won cups with the Trap and a large number of teams, usually, the mediocre ones saw this as an opportunity to get competitive and started playing the Trap as well. Especially since this removed skill components from the game and although boring allowed a greater success with poorer parts so to speak.

    Winners set the pace. Teams like Chicago and Los Angeles built winners and the rest of the league followed.

    But this year the Meta shifted. The game has reinvented itself and it did it in a surprisingly short time, in the space of this season.

    I think the removal of the Red Line started it and now teams are playing the new meta. Old Timers would call it something like cherry picking, to me, it’s like an Anti-Trap. There is no more middle of the ice. You have the Cherry Pickers vulturing around the red line and you have the support players feeding them the puck.

    The Vultures get the puck and fly in a sortie making their attack, it’s the equivalent of the German Blitzkrieg making a lightning-swift attack either alone or in a formation of two or three. Overtime has become an extreme version of this.

    The new Meta favors speed and quick reactions, highly mobile players who can think and turn on a dime. Luckily the Oilers have the biggest baddest best Vulture of them all and some very good supporting players.

    The problem as I see it is that Chiarelli and McLellan are masters of the old Meta and built a team that would have thrived in past years but they got caught in the paradigm shift. Just go back and look at past years threads on this blog and see how EVERYONE was chasing MOAR BIGGER for years and years and that’s what the management went out and did.

    They developed a plan and executed it and the result was quite evident last year with the success they had.

    Then the paradigm shifted.

    The ironic thing is (and it pains me to say it) is the Oilers were actually leading the pack in this when you looked at rebuilds 1 and 2, etc. If you could take the original rebuild team and drop them in today’s league they would be remarkably competitive. Lowe and company built a team that wasn’t competitive with the current Meta but foreshadowed the new one.

    So the management and players have to adapt or die. I don’t have the answers about if they should be replaced or not. I don’t think the team is light years from being competitive but it certainly needs a few pieces being upgraded.

    In terms of Lucic, he is old Meta. He has to adapt too. I think he spent the latter half of the year trying to become a player he is not. In the rush for speed and quickness, he sacrificed carefully planned passing to try to speed his game up and he ended up giving away the puck as a result.

    I’d be happier if he, in fact, slowed down his game a little and took an extra moment to dial in his passes. If someone ends up challenging him for the puck so be it, good luck getting the puck away from him and 1v1 challenges are a strength of his anyhow.

    Looch needs to adapt to the new Meta and I believe he can still do that. He can’t become a speedster but he can figure out how to be an asset.

  158. who says:

    Bling: This is exactly why I don’t want the Oilers to scratch that itch of an expensive to acquire RHD.

    Here is Klefbom/Benning (stats from Corsica.hockey):

    Minutes: 528
    CORSI%: 51.63
    CORSI_REL: 0.92
    GF%: 51.2
    xGF%: 51.98

    IMO, that is your second pair. I have been saying that Benning is a legit 2RHD. He has two years worth of good results. Tierny published a graph that showed him in league with Larsson.

    Also, Benning played minutes with Klef (528), Sekera (210), Auvitu (115), Russell (98), and Nurse (95).

    He was CORSI_REL negative only with Russell. He was only GF%<50 with Sekera (-8 at evens, ouch), but I attribute that to an injured Sekera.

    Sekera/Russell is a fine third pairing, with Auvitu as your #7.

    Now upgrade the wingers and the back-up goalie!

    Benning is a second pairing dman?
    You can say it all you want. Doesn’t make it so. It would be incredibly optimistic to pencil him in at that spot next year. I have seen nothing in his play to indicate he is ready for those minutes.

  159. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    Also did anyone else see Caggiula real gud last night?

    Fine AHL stud that Drake.

  160. who says:

    Dee Dee:
    The season has certainly been a disappointment as an Oiler fan but something very interesting happened this year. And I’m talking about Hockey, and the league itself.

    A gamer would call this phenomenon “The Meta”. And what happened this year in hockey is the Meta shifted.

    Now this happens all the time. But in the past, the Meta followed the Stanley Cup winners and the teams that lost altered themselves to follow the habits of the winning team.

    The Devils won cups with the Trap and a large number of teams, usually, the mediocre ones saw this as an opportunity to get competitive and started playing the Trap as well. Especially since this removed skill components from the game and although boring allowed a greater success with poorer parts so to speak.

    Winners set the pace. Teams like Chicago and Los Angeles built winners and the rest of the league followed.

    But this year the Meta shifted. The game has reinvented itself and it did it in a surprisingly short time, in the space of this season.

    I think the removal of the Red Line started it and now teams are playing the new meta. Old Timers would call it something like cherry picking, to me, it’s like an Anti-Trap. There is no more middle of the ice. You have the Cherry Pickers vulturing around the red line and you have the support players feeding them the puck.

    The Vultures get the puck and fly in a sortie making their attack, it’s the equivalent of the German Blitzkrieg making a lightning-swift attack either alone or in a formation of two or three. Overtime has become an extreme version of this.

    The new Meta favors speed and quick reactions, highly mobile players who can think and turn on a dime. Luckily the Oilers have the biggest baddest best Vulture of them all and some very good supporting players.

    The problem as I see it is that Chiarelli and McLellan are masters of the old Meta and built a team that would have thrived in past years but they got caught in the paradigm shift. Just go back and look at past years threads on this blog and see how EVERYONE was chasing MOAR BIGGER for years and years and that’s what the management went out and did.

    They developed a plan and executed it and the result was quite evident last year with the success they had.

    Then the paradigm shifted.

    The ironic thing is (and it pains me to say it) is the Oilers were actually leading the pack in this when you looked at rebuilds 1 and 2, etc. If you could take the original rebuild team and drop them in today’s league they would be remarkably competitive. Lowe and company built a team that wasn’t competitive with the current Meta but foreshadowed the new one.

    So the management and players have to adapt or die. I don’t have the answers about if they should be replaced or not. I don’t think the team is light years from being competitive but it certainly needs a few pieces being upgraded.

    In terms of Lucic, he is old Meta. He has to adapt too. I think he spent the latter half of the year trying to become a player he is not. In the rush for speed and quickness, he sacrificed carefully planned passing to try to speed his game up and he ended up giving away the puck as a result.

    I’d be happier if he, in fact, slowed down his game a little and took an extra moment to dial in his passes. If someone ends up challenging him for the puck so be it, good luck getting the puck away from him and 1v1 challenges are a strength of his anyhow.

    Looch needs to adapt to the new Meta and I believe he can still do that. He can’t become a speedster but he can figure out how to be an asset.

    I agree with you on Lucic to a point. You loose me when you say he excels at 1 on 1 challenges. In my viewings he has lost more of these battles than almost any other Oiler.
    Seems to me he lacks the agility and edgework to use that big body to properly protect the puck against smaller quicker players.

  161. Gret99zky says:

    Pescador:
    ,

    We can count on Talbot next year. *Agreed!
    Sekera will be fully rehabbed and ready to make an impact next year. *Go Sek!
    Drai will earn every penny of his $8.5M next year. *Absolutely.
    Everyone will be healthy next year. *Virgin sacrifice required.
    Todd deserves another season, he is a good coach. *Clown Cannon.
    Chia will make those tweak trades he’s really good at. *Hopefully.
    Lucic will bounce back. *Doubtful.
    Darnell will sign a team friendly contract. *Friendly Bridge.
    Puljujarvi will score 25 next year. *20 is not unreasonable.
    Russell can play the right side. *3RD 11min/ night
    Yamamoto will make the top six out of camp. *3rd L RW.
    Montoya is good enough. *Nope.
    This new draft pick will be plug and play. *Send Dobson back to Jr.
    We will make the playoff next year, guaranteed. *Playoff bubble team.

    For the record, these are not my own predictions or expectations. Just some of the crap I’ve mined surfing the Al Gore.

    I expect another 15-16, 17-18 type of scenario next year. Last season was an outlier. A fluke.

  162. Woogie63 says:

    Now that we know the whole story, how was PC trade deadline;

    Out
    Davidson
    Letestu
    Maroon

    In
    3rd rounder from non play-off team
    Aberg
    Marody

  163. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I was just playing around with stuff: fun fact: Conner this year had an absolute beast of a year 5×5

    – He had 84 EV points this year: only Bret Hall, Gretz, Lemieux, Jagr, Yzerman have done better since 1990, and that’s in a different scoring era.

    – Last year he had 71 EV points. Patrick Kane with 69 is next since CmD came in league.

    – Hall, by way of reference had 37 PP points this year. CmD had 20.

    – Figure out CmD on the PP, add to the 3×3 OT: man he’s going to crush it…

    * we had the worst PP in the NHL with the best 5×5 player: probably never happened before. Brutal

  164. Gret99zky says:

    Wilde:
    Looks like Kovalchuk’s looking for term if I’m reading things right, but Radulov was too and didn’t get it

    Kovalchuk is about as trustworthy as a scorpion riding a frog.

  165. Wilde says:

    Gret99zky,

    Kovalchuk’s been demonised for all the wrong things.

    He saved that Devils team from a monster recapture. People think he ran out on Jersey, but there was a plan there and Lou was in on it.

  166. godot10 says:

    Oilin4:
    Interesting. HIs RelGF% in 16.17 was against some pretty tough competition and he should get some credit for his ability to stay out of the box in such a role. It seems fair to say that Klef is a good offensive and possession defender (even against tough comp) prone to defensive lapses but not penalties. Pairing him with someone who can cover the net well but doesn’t bring much offensively (I wonder who that could be?) is an ideal fit. Not a 1LD but a very good 2LD on a beauty contract.

    I think part of his issue this year is they expected him to babysit youngsters and that just isn’t his game.

    I disagree with this. I think ideally Klefbom should be paired with a fundamentally sound offensive D.

    I.e. Barrie or Brodin or Ellis

    It should be a D first mindset with Klefbom.

  167. Professor Q says:

    Wilde:
    Looks like Kovalchuk’s looking for term if I’m reading things right, but Radulov was too and didn’t get it

    True, but then got a much better contract afterwards ($1 million more and for 5 years with a NMC).

    He’d definitely be a good pick up for a 1 year contract (or 2). He doesn’t have age on his side like Radulov did.

  168. Professor Q says:

    Wilde:
    Gret99zky,

    Kovalchuk’s been demonised for all the wrong things.

    He saved that Devils team from a monster recapture. People think he ran out on Jersey, but there was a plan there and Lou was in on it.

    Yeah, I think people just hate the Russian factor. When you factor in everything else it’s Lou who was the sketchball as usual and Kovalchuk helped bring them to the Cup finals, which many forget.

  169. Wilde says:

    Professor Q: True, but then got a much better contract afterwards ($1 million more and for 5 years with a NMC).

    He’d definitely be a good pick up for a 1 year contract (or 2). He doesn’t have age on his side like Radulov did.

    Yeah. Dadanov got term, but again, age.

    It might come down to location.

    Funny thing is, in a practical sense, NJ is probably his best match.

  170. Gret99zky says:

    Wilde,

    Professor Q,

    Fair.

  171. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I had some time to write stuff today so I hope no one is too put off by my posting volume.

    Here’s more (hehe)

    Here’s every RHD who’s top 4 from my post above with notes on each player:

    Player RelT GF%
    JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.2
    -Phenomenal player. Gets a boost here from being the best on a poor Dcorps over the past 2 years. Seriously underrated.
    -Value on both side of the puck too (which means he team mates score more with him and get scored on less with him as well)

    JOSH.MANSON 8.9
    -Plays with Lindholm who might be the best Dman in the NHL. Good player but no idea how good away from Lindholm

    DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.7
    -Like Manson, his partner Gio kills the world at this metric. He’s mostly played with Gio and Chara for his career (nice work if you can get it), but has been good away from them as well.

    BRANDON.MONTOUR 8.6
    -Rookie in a small sample with Fowler mostly. Killer 300 minutes last year on 3rd pair and started this year on 3rd pair, but mostly played 2nd with Fowler. Value comes on both sides of the puck.

    JAKE.DOTCHIN 7.5
    -Good rookie year in 3rd pair last year, playing mostly with Hedman this year.
    -Have no clue what he is yet, but he can play with Hedman and not drag him down, which frees up Stralman to anchor the 2nd pair

    CHRIS.TANEV 7.2 **
    -Very good Dman on bad team. Value was mostly defensive last year and mostly offensive this year. Good shut down Dman historically.
    -Exactly what EDM needs on the 2nd pair imo.

    DREW.DOUGHTY 6.5
    -Playing on a good team drops his ranking via this measure a bit. One of the best.

    MATT.DUMBA 6.1
    -Much better player than I thought he’d be two years ago. All of his extra value is offensive and is one of few Dmen who can actually drive SV%.
    -Crazy offensive talent 5v5.

    BRETT.PESCE 6.1
    -Played career with Slavin so no sure how much each player drives that bus. Most of the value is on the offensive side of the puck. Very good young Dman

    RADKO.GUDAS 4.9 **
    -Radko Badass is a favorite of mine. I like tough hockey and he plays tougher than most.
    Had a great year last year +11.65 RelTGF% and was -2.65 RelTGF% this year.
    -Not sure if its a buy low moment or if previous results were not sustainable. Has a history of being the goods, but playing less under Hakstol than before.
    -Had poor results mostly playing 3rd pair with Manning this year. Not sure what to make of it.

    RYAN.ELLIS 4.8
    -I’ve loved him for years and wanted him to be an Oiler when he was still 3rd pair on NSH.
    -Phenomenal result considering the depth of NSH’s Dcorps. Complete defender.

    BRENT.BURNS 4.0
    -All offense, but had a ton of it last year.
    -A career GF% under 50% away from Thornton. No shit.
    – +16.3 RelTGF% last year and -8.82 this year. Ouch. That contract is a killer as he’s never been a great defender.

    SHEA.WEBER 3.9
    -still a good shut down Dman. Played hurt all year so this year’s results are meh.

    ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
    -under rated by everyone and tied to Hall forever and that’s not his fault.
    -1st pairing Dman but its best if he’s not the best Dman on the pair

    ALEX.PETROVIC 3.7 **
    -a solid +3.22% last year and another +4.24% this year.
    -Last year FLA spread the QoC almost equally among all Dmen so it was like everyone was a 2nd pair, not sure about this year
    -a poster in this thread said he’s slow and can’t pass. Not sure about that. The results are well above average.

    DAVID.SAVARD 3.6
    -Fell off significantly this year
    – +10.18% last year on a PDO heater and -2.51 this year
    -I know he’s slower and can’t pass too well. Pass

    ANTON.STRALMAN 3.6
    -Been a favorite since’s Tyler’s piece on his value in 2013.
    -Played a lot with Hedman last year, less this year. +3.05 last year, +3.17 this year. All on the offensive side of the puck
    -He’s what we hoped Petry would be

    ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.6
    -Good results on a decent team. Bouwmeester has been a drag on his results for years.
    -If he had good partner he’d be in Norris conversation every year

    JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.1
    -Contract is large and long and he’s 34
    -strong +7.45 last year and -0.45 in an injury riddled season this year. Last year he and Leddy were very good

    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.8
    -believe it or not most of his value is on the defensive side of the puck. Everyone gets less goals against with him and he plays the toughs
    -had variable partners like Chariot too with Entrom fading.
    -Strong 1st pair Dman

    BEN.LOVEJOY 2.8
    -He’s done.
    -Played mostly 3rds this year and might not play next year

    MATT.NISKANEN 2.7
    -Injury riddled season
    -One of the best RHD in the NHL

    BRENT.SEABROOK 2.4
    -Was really surprised by his result
    -Keith had a tough year and that obscured things
    -Contract goes forever though

    ERIK.KARLSSON 1.8
    -When I first started looking into this stuff I expected Karlsson where Klingberg is as he’s a great player on a poor team.
    -Had a great +7.15% last year and a -2.53 this year. I guess losing half you ankle will do that to a guy. 2 years previous to that were +3.09 and +1.85. Not nearly what I was expecting.
    -He creates a lot, but man he gives up a ton too.
    -Big gamble moving forward. Is he the same as he was?
    -I wouldn’t trade for him, value isn’t there

    MARK.PYSYK 1.7 **
    -I’ve liked him since BUF. Great +5.12 last year. Tougher QoC this year and a -2.0 giving up a lot defensively.
    -Playing mostly with Matheson.

    JASON.DEMERS 1.4 **
    -Strong year in ARI with a +4.21 after a -2.21 in FLA last year.
    -Mostly with OEL so OEL is going to zoom some of that, but he zoomed OEL too as OEL was 37.8% GF away from Demers this year in 452 minutes and was 49.4% with Demers.
    -ARI went 17-8-3 once all their Dmen and goalie got healthy to finish the season
    -Good 2nd pair Dman and would have fit perfectly in EDM

    RASMUS.RISTOLAINEN 1.3
    -Its really tough to know what he is. Thrust into 1st pair role before he was ready and played with garbage partners for the most part.
    -Was +0.41 last year and finally got an “ok” partner this year in Scandella and put up a +1.99, so if he ever gets a partner who is 1st pair quality he should be good.
    -I’d take a chance on him

    TYSON.BARRIE 1.2
    -Went into detail on Barrie earlier in the thread

    COLIN.MILLER 0.5 **
    -A number of us called on Peter to get him from VGK. Nope.
    – +6.14 last year when we all went gaga, but a -2.96 this year.
    -worse partner this year along with Schmidt rocking the first pair and Theodore carrying the 2nd pair made the Rel part much tougher

    P.K..SUBBAN 0.5
    -A -2.85 last year hides a nice +2.85 this year.
    -Played mostly with Emelin this year. He has a 54.7% GF with Emelin and 63.3% (!!) without. Looks like Laviolette spread his talent to all 3 pairs to not have a softer pairing. It worked.
    -Most of his value is on the offensive side of puck

    JACOB.TROUBA 0.3
    -Injury history like Klefbom. 55gp this year, 65 last year
    -put up a -0.32 last year and a 0.86 this year.
    -Played mostly with Morrisey this year and he’s the goods.
    -Deeper Dcorps so tougher to put up good Rel numbers
    -If he’s healthy next year I bet he beats 0.86
    -His value is offensive as well, leaky on GA so if he tightens that up he’ll be very good

  172. Mustard Tiger says:

    frjohnk,

    Made me giggle

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: He did win a Stanley Cup, I hear that is a thing?

    He won one more game in the SCF than Lowe did, and he did it with Tim Thomas putting up a .944 while Lowe’s started got knocked out in game 1.

    Perspective.

  174. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: He is no Fistric.
    Fistric had a chastity belt on the Rickibox.

    *strong Weiser clapping*

  175. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo: That’s terrifying.

    So if McDavid, heaven forbid, is injured next year and is out for the year the Oilers would go 10-72?!

  176. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He won one more game in the SCF than Lowe did, and he did it with Tim Thomas putting up a .944 while Lowe’s started got knocked out in game 1.

    Perspective.

    – Your saying that Chia had a goalie that was hot when he won the Cup. It’s true that the losing our goalie hurt on our cup run

    – But you can’t compare the two GM’s, based on their track record though. Not even close IMO.

    – Lowe was not a good GM, save the one year he was golden, and that team with Pronger was amazing. Chia went to the Cup twice, he built good teams. Lowe made the playoffs what 4 times in 13 years? He was just awful: Comrie, Big Sexy, Penner Vanek, Schremp, Plante, Nash, Nimikami, Miknov, MAP, : dude had no clue.

    * Lowe one of the worst GM’s in modern hockey. Probably because he was allowed to stay year after year, and not getting fired. Maybe they view him different in Edmonton than elsewhere?

  177. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lowetide:
    Edmonton Oilers

    Verified account

    @EdmontonOilers
    Following Following @EdmontonOilers
    More
    The #Oilers have signed Cooper Marody to a three-year ELC. The 21-year-old forward, whose rights were acquired from Philadelphia on March 21, led @umichhockey with 51 points (16 goals, 35 assists) in 40 games this season.

    Good news. I think most people thought there was no way the Oilers would do that trade without being sure they could sign him, but there were a few who thought management just might screw that up, too.

    Good to see that is not the case.

  178. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He won one more game in the SCF than Lowe did, and he did it with Tim Thomas putting up a .944 while Lowe’s started got knocked out in game 1.

    Perspective.

    Current Managers who won the Stanley Cup as a GM

    Bowman
    Holland
    Shero
    Rutherford
    Lamoriello
    Chiarelli

    Is another perspective

  179. Confused says:

    Anyone got any thoughts on Casey Nelson as a zero cost RHD option?

  180. Confused says:

    Apparently, the Condors are still in the hunt after a win today. Anyone understand this league?

  181. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Confused:
    Apparently, the Condors are still in the hunt after a win today. Anyone understand this league?

    San Diego, in 3rd place, has 3 games left vs first place Tucson. If they lose all 3 in regulation their points percentage will be .559

    If Bakersfield wins out they can technically catch them. But if SD gets so much as 1 point, they are in, BAK are out.

  182. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Your saying that Chia had a goalie that was hot when he won the Cup.It’s true that the losing our goalie hurt on our cup run

    – But you can’t compare the two GM’s, based on their track record though.Not even close IMO.

    – Lowe was not a good GM, save the one year he was golden, and that team with Pronger was amazing.Chia went to the Cup twice, he built good teams.Lowe made the playoffs what 4 times in 13 years?He was just awful: Comrie, Big Sexy, Penner Vanek, Schremp, Plante, Nash, Nimikami, Miknov, MAP,: dude had no clue.

    * Lowe one of the worst GM’s in modern hockey.Probably because he was allowed to stay year after year, and not getting fired.Maybe they view him different in Edmonton than elsewhere?

    I’m saying “but he has a Cup” is a thin defence.

    He also won the Cup 7 years ago.

    That’s a long time.

    Not many industries where you can rest on your results from 7 years ago.

  183. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: Current Managers who won the Stanley Cup as a GM

    Bowman
    Holland
    Shero
    Rutherford
    Lamoriello
    Chiarelli

    Is another perspective

    Current list of GM’s who won a Cup with their current team:

    Bowman – 3 years ago
    Holland – 10 years ago
    Rutherford – last year and year before

    Is another perspective.

    Also,

    DET re-signing Holland made DET twitter go insane.

    He’s as bad as Chiarelli for long immovable contracts to none core players

  184. StixMalone says:

    Is it a good idea for Sekera to go to the Worlds?….

  185. Confused says:

    Watch the Condors highlights some nice goals

  186. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m saying “but he has a Cup” is a thin defence.

    He also won the Cup 7 years ago.

    That’s a long time.

    Not many industries where you can rest on your results from 7 years ago.

    How many industries have only one winner?

  187. Wayne Kenov says:

    At one point I was on team trade the pick, but as the season wore on, I started to accept how far we are away. This isn’t just about being one top six winger away. We came into the season severely out manned, and are worse off today. When I look at the depth chart, I see
    Nuge McDavid XXX
    XXX Draisaitl XXX
    XXX Strome JP
    Slepyshev/Caggiula Khaira Aberg
    Kassian

    There are the obvious holes we talk about in the top six, but another Strome level player or two is needed for the third line. We thought this was going to be Jokinen, but it wasn’t. Mabe JP plays his way up a line, or Yammo establishes himself, but that just isn’t where we sit today. We only had 3 players over 35 points. For comparison, Tampa had 9, Boston 8, Toronto 10, Nashville 8, Winnipeg 9, Minnesota 8, Colorado 6, Washington 6, Pittsburgh 7, Philly 7, JERSEY 5!!!, Columbus 6, Vegas 9, Anaheim 7, San Jose 9, and LA 7 . And most other teams had several players in the range, we only had Lucic and Strome in spitting distance. We do have Connor, but a lot of teams have at least 1 ppg+ player so the difference at the top isn’t huge, certainly not enough to overcome the shitshow that is our top 6 wing. Shit, I just looked up Maroon, and realized my numbers don’t take into account pre+post trade stats, so it might be worse that I made it seem. Point holds though.

    This team is legit 4 wingers away from competing. I don’t think they need to blow the doors off (that was the point of building up the middle), but they have to be >Strome. You are looking for guys in the Rust/Little range. If Nuge is in the top 6, you only need 3, plus a Stome or slightly shy LW for the 3Line.

    BTW last years team had 7, but Ebs is gone, and I doubt Lucic gets back there. Klefbom might, which would give us 4. JP is only a 25pt pace player today, so lets be careful betting on him.

  188. Pescador says:

    Confused:
    Anyone got any thoughts on Casey Nelson as a zero cost RHD option?

    Never heard of her

  189. Pescador says:

    Wayne Kenov:
    At one point I was on team trade the pick, but as the season wore on, I started to accept how far we are away. This isn’t just about being one top six winger away. We came into the season severely out manned, and are worse off today. When I look at the depth chart, I see
    Nuge McDavid XXX
    XXX Draisaitl XXX
    XXX Strome JP
    Slepyshev/Caggiula Khaira Aberg
    Kassian

    There are the obvious holes we talk about in the top six, but another Strome level player or two is needed for the third line. We thought this was going to be Jokinen, but it wasn’t. Mabe JP plays his way up a line, or Yammo establishes himself, but that just isn’t where we sit today. We only had 3 players over 35 points. For comparison, Tampa had 9, Boston 8, Toronto 10, Nashville 8, Winnipeg 9, Minnesota 8, Colorado 6, Washington 6, Pittsburgh 7, Philly 7, JERSEY 4!!!, Columbus 6, Vegas 9, Anaheim 7, San Jose 9, and LA 7 . And most other teams had several players in the range, we only had Lucic and Strome in spitting distance. We do have Connor, but a lot of teams have at least 1 ppg+ player so the difference at the top isn’t huge, certainly not enough to overcome the shitshow that is our top 6 wing. Shit, I just looked up Maroon, and realized my numbers don’t take into account pre+post trade stats, so it might be worse that I made it seem. Point holds though.

    This team is legit 4 wingers away from competing. I don’t think they need to blow the doors off (that was the point of building up the middle), but they have to be >Strome. You are looking for guys in the Rust/Little range. If Nuge is in the top 6, you only need 3, plus a Stome or slightly shy LW for the 3Line.

    Seeing as how the Oilers have no palatable assets to trade,
    To go along with next to zero cap dollars to spend
    Probably talking about going into next season as;
    Nuge CMD Rattie
    XXX Drai JP
    Lucic Strome Yamamoto
    Slep Khaira Kassian (should probably trade this player)
    Can likely find the cap dollars to sign a decent XXX
    With a couple of minor moves.
    Likely looking at a St Louis type season for next or hopefully
    Colorado

  190. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m saying “but he has a Cup” is a thin defence.

    He also won the Cup 7 years ago.

    That’s a long time.

    Not many industries where you can rest on your results from 7 years ago.

    – I thought you were suggesting that the doffer mcd between lowe and chia was the goalie

    – we know that the hotest starts goalie wins the cup basically

    – one team wins the cup a year. Chia has been the gm of many good hockey teams. Lowe is generally considered one of the worst gms in modern hockey.

    – I know you were trying to say something but not sure what it was

    – surely not that chia = Lowe save a hot goalie one cup run?

    – Lowe and mact give advice to chia. They should not be in hockey at their level. Good management surrounds themselves with good people. I don’t see good people surrounding chia. Gretzkys brother is by all accounts solid. Everyone else on management was there before chia

    – this organization needs more good hockey people

  191. Doug McLachlan says:

    Confused:
    Anyone got any thoughts on Casey Nelson as a zero cost RHD option?

    Not sure what you might see in him. By contrast I wonder if another UFA RHD, Ryan Sproul, is still worth looking into?

  192. Confused says:

    Pescador,

    Been with the Sabres, not playing much, will be a UFA.

    Sabres have lots signed, so unlikely.

    Been suggested to me, he is a decent bet as a late developer.

  193. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: –

    * Lowe one of the worst GM’s in modern hockey.Probably because he was allowed to stay year after year, and not getting fired.Maybe they view him different in Edmonton than elsewhere?

    You’ve steadily brought up this ‘in Edmonton’ thing, I’ll address it:

    Google ‘Lowe must go’.

    Lowe the executive is absolutely not looked upon fondly in Edmonton. That’s not why people are often offside with your takes on him; it’s that they’re hyperbolic and lack nuance

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Trouble with this relt GF stuff is that it’s not just 3rd pairing guys that game the results to a degree.

    We’re both familiar with the problem that shouldn’t be: Top-heavy teams that have positive goalshare top units, then their bottom 6 gives it all back.

    These teams give a low baseline GF% to contrast against to their D pairings who play with their top lines. Examples are Gio/Hamilton playing 2/3rds of their icetime with Backlund or Monahan. Klingberg with Seguin and Faksa.

    They should be credited with their contributions to the GF% when they’re on the ice, of course. But stuff like the 4th line being caved because a HC thinks they’re good for 1st comp DZFO’s resulting in a blackhole goalshare can really pull the Rel number the top guys are competing against down.

    I know you’re aware of this, but I thought I’d expand on the ‘context’ part.

  194. Wayne Kenov says:

    Pescador: Seeing as how the Oilers have no palatable assets to trade,
    To go along with next to zero cap dollars to spend
    Probably talking about going into next season as;
    Nuge CMD Rattie
    XXX Drai JP
    Lucic Strome Yamamoto
    Slep Khaira Kassian (should probably trade this player)
    Can likely find the cap dollars to sign a decent XXX
    With a couple of minor moves.
    Likely looking at a St Louis type season for next or hopefully
    Colorado

    Oh, I know. There is no way to fix what ails us short term. I’m just trying to get a handle on where we are right now. That probably is what the fwds look like next year, with Aberg in the 2LW. That team will not be very good at hockey though.

    I never finished my thought in the original post. Since we are so far away, we need to draft a player (probably dman), and start making moves to retool for 2-3 years down the road. Chia has killed us, and we now need to wait out his NMCs to ice a capable roster again.

  195. Scungilli Slushy says:

    A couple of smart forward moves and a backup that can push Talbot makes things look a lot different. And health. The team isn’t as bad as the record.

    And new coaches if better is out there.

  196. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GMB3: Does anyone else find training with a former wide receiver with unbelievable natural gifts as a bit of an odd choice for a bulky and slow hockey player?

    We train a lot of junior and several pro hockey guys, and we train a lot of football players here. There is a marked difference in how we program for both. The demands of the sports aren’t similar.

    Did Lucic move down to the states to train with TO? Or did he periodically go visit him and then follow his program back in wherever his off season home is? If he’s willing to move to train, he should look at heading to train with Roberts and co. It would be the right atmosphere, plenty of elite NHLers all train there, it could be the right move to get his career back on track.

    I’m sure he’ll take training more seriously this off season. I think the Owens thing was more about the stories he could tell buddies. He’s got the cash to blow.

    But it wasn’t helpful obviously.

    As has been mentioned here and by him he needs to change his diet to be ready for the season, drop mass and try to regain some flexibility and probably work on his puck skills. No easy warm weather time for Luc this off season.

  197. Confused says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I see you do not list Parayko, I know he did not have a great year, but have you gone off him this much?

  198. Ari says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great stuff on the RHD rundown.
    Hopefully, they don’t pay a fortune for Dman points.

  199. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pescador:
    Nuge CMD Rattie
    XXX Drai JP
    Lucic Strome Yamamoto
    Slep Khaira Kassian (should probably trade this player)
    Can likely find the cap dollars to sign a decent XXX

    – Assuming you do get a decent XXXX, and throw in Cammi-type for his role up and down, Aberg for his speed as your 13/14 F’s: you have elite first line, a fine bottom line, with players that have opportunity to play higher (and have a bit this year), and enough ingredients to bake a cake in the middle-6 with Drai, JP, Lucic, Strome, Yammer and XXX

Newer Comments »

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca