Once in a Lifetime

Based on the early verbal, we’re about to spend the week listening to talk of ‘raised expectations last fall’ and ‘we’ve learned our lesson’ from the good ship Oiler. That’s fine, I do think people giving their perspective on things has value and should be heard.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

Based on my reading of the tea leaves, it looks like the general manager, coach and some key assistants will stay and the turnover will happen in the “Steve Smith/Charlie Huddy” portion of the coaching staff. The negotiations going on re: who stays among the assistants could mean the head coach walks. That’s my guess this morning. Good news for all involved that we’ve heard nothing yet.

The dealing with raised expectations verbal misses a few home truths, and that’s a fact. If you’ve read this blog, you know I believe the Oilers treat young talent as a disposable item, a renewable resource. This year’s model didn’t work? Try the new, improved version available in the top 10 at this year’s draft! All the well selling a ‘five-year plan’ that lies just beyond the next hill.

The Oilers have had great talent over the years, in fact much of it will be on display in this year’s playoffs. Seriously. Check it out. Talent has never been the problem. Finding a way to allow that young talent to flourish is the issue. Current example: Jesse Puljujarvi.

The 2010 Top 20 prospects

  • Lowetide blog: This is the strongest group of Oiler prospects I can recall. The 79-81 Oilers top 20 would have been better but after that this group must be the best. Potential and upside fall under the “If Wishes were Horses” category and we must know that some of these young men will falter. I think Oiler fans deserve good news by the tonne at this point in franchise history, so this list celebrates the future whatever it may be for the Copper and Blue.

That’s a very strong list. Taylor Hall might win the Hart Trophy this season, Jordan Eberle is a perennial 25-goal man on the other wing. Jeff Petry is a quality NHL defender and has been for years now and Devan Dubnyk has been a successful starter for a hockey generation. There’s also a late kicker group that includes Brandon Davidson, Tyler Pitlick and Chris VandeVelde.

My argument about the Oilers is personified in Teemu Hartikainen. The Oilers got rid of him because Jesse Joensuu was the answer but I’m convinced the Oilers had the better player. Edmonton is tougher on their own prospects than they are on other team’s castoffs. It has always been thus. Irritating.

THE 2018 TOP 20 PROSPECTS

There is no Taylor Hall here, but Jesse Puljujarvi could end up being a 30-goal winger with two-way ability. Insane value. Jujhar Khaira took a little time (lesson there) but looks like he may have a career (possibly on LW). Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson start their pro careers in the fall and there’s plenty of opportunity to advance.

Ethan Bear played 18 NHL games as a rookie pro, ahead of schedule by any measure. He looked like a rookie but you can see his intelligence and passing ability. There may be a fine future there. There are eight defenders on this list. Four goalies. I expect the Oilers would prefer to draft a forward in the first round.

NHL DRAFT LOTTERY

Oilers are currently No. 9, they could draft in several spots in the first round. The well named Tankathon suggests Edmonton’s chances are:

  • No. 1 overall: 5 percent
  • No. 2 overall: 5 percent
  • No. 3 overall: 5 percent
  • No. 9 overall: 48.8 percent
  • No. 10 overall: 30.7 percent
  • No. 11 overall: 4.3 percent
  • No. 12 overall: 0.1 percent

In the words of the great Johnny Mathis, chances are Edmonton picks No. 9 or No. 10. I think Ty Smith comes into view now, maybe Emil Bouchard or that Merkley fellow. Still think Edmonton would like a forward and wonder if they have someone in mind we haven’t discussed. My Top 100 ranking is here.

50-MAN (LONG FORM)

  1. G Cam Talbot. Signed for one more season, he had a .920 save percentage during March/April (final 17 games). Suspect the Oilers will bring him back as No. 1, believe it’s a solid bet.
  2. G Al Montoya. Signed for next season, he’s an established goalie but the Oilers should upgrade in this area. Montoya isn’t a goalie you can run with for two weeks.
  3. G Shane Starrett. He’s signed and that’s a big advantage. SP fell year over year from .918 to .899 in Bakersfield, that’s a down arrow.
  4. G Dylan Wells. Turns pro this fall. Three year save percentages in Peterborough (.871, .916 and .896) suggests Wells may begin his pro career in the ECHL.
  5. LD Oscar Klefbom. Went 66, 5-16-21 in a season made difficult due to injury. His surgery went well, although trading the young blue (if that was the plan) may be more difficult because of the medical news.
  6. RD Adam Larsson. He went 63, 4-9-13 in a difficult year for him, played well and had solid results while playing tough minutes.
  7. LD Kris Russell. He delivered 78, 4-17-21 and continues to lose the possession battle (it was close though, Fenwick 49.48).
  8. LD Andrej Sekera. He went 36, 0-8-8 but the final games were the only contests where he resembled the Sekera of last season. He was shutdown for the season’s final games but is apparently heading to the WHC’s.
  9. RD Ethan Bear. In the NHL (18, 1-3-4) and AHL (34, 6-10-16) he combined the errors of youth with signs of what may come. Smart, great passer, he finds attractive options while passing on low risk items. Very encouraging season.
  10. LD Caleb Jones. Inconsistent rookie seasons in pro hockey are not unusual and it remains clear Jones has all of the required elements. He just needs to fly more sorties. He went 55, 2-14-16 this season in Bakersfield, settling down after a wobbly first 15 games. He and Bear separated this season in career trajectory, this is a good time to remind prospects don’t develop in a straight line. There’s a player here.
  11. RD Ryan Mantha. A concerning eye injury ended his season (41, 3-7-10) and we’re not really sure where he stands. Mantha showed well when he played, recovery is the next important step in his career.
  12. LD Ryan Stanton. 46gp, 2-6-8 in Bakersfield he didn’t play in Edmonton, mostly due to an injury that put him behind in training camp. He might be more prominent next season.
  13. RD Eric Gryba. He was 21, 0-2-2 in Edmonton before heading back to Bakersfield. Foot speed got him, he could still defend on his final day in the NHL. The Don Awrey’s are leaving.
  14. LD William Lagesson. A strong SHL season and playoff may have him poised for a jump aross the water. He was 49, 1-12-13 during the season, a dozen SHL assists is a handsome total. He is best known for good wheels and excellent coverage.
  15. LD Dmitri Samorukov. Slide rule. Strong OHL season showing fine speed and defensive acumen, plus some offensive flair. Impressed the hell out of everyone in a brief audition with Bakersfield at the end of the year.
  16. LC Connor McDavid. Impossibly brilliant hockey player, McDavid once again won the scoring championship (82, 41-67-108) and has clearly established himself at the top of the game. A dream player for any manager or coach.
  17. LC Leon Draisaitl. He struggled with injury and inconsistency all year, but still managed to post 78, 25-45-70. The organization needs to find him two wingers who can complement his considerable gifts. I believe Jesse Puljujarvi may be one.
  18. LC Brad Malone. He was 56, 13-20-33 in the AHL and 7, 0-0-0 with Edmonton this season. He is a player I can see spending more time in the NHL next season, especially if he shows well as a penalty killer in preseason.
  19. LC Joe Gambardella. A slow start has given way to a good finish, he is now 47, 12-5-17 in the AHL. If he’s going to make the NHL, Gambardella will need to spike offensively next year.
  20. RC Cooper Marody. Brand new signing has skill and will receive a push beginning in the fall. He can play center or wing, suspect he’ll get a long look at pivot due to need.
  21. RC Cameron Hebig. Overage junior signed in the spring and has a good resume. His scoring for two WHL teams this year (66, 41-49-90) is eye popping. He turns pro in the fall, age 21.
  22. LC Colin Larkin. Division III center is a bit of a mystery, the good boots got him the contract and we’ll see. He is 13, 0-2-2 in Bakersfield.
  23. L Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Surged offensively when placed with McDavid, he brings some two-way acumen to the top line. He was 62, 24-24-48 this year. While all were fretting about Hall and Eberle being dealt, my main worry was Nuge. I still think he is vulnerable to trade.
  24. L Jujhar Khaira. 69, 11-10-21 in his arrival season in the NHL. Khaira has a range of skills and the offense seals the deal as a bona fide NHL player. You’ll want to see 11+ goals next season, but this is a fabulous story. Oilers don’t have a lot of third-round picks who see the light of day.
  25. L Milan Lucic. A bitterly disappoint season (82, 10-24-34) marked by an extreme lack of productivity after the AS break. He got chances too, with big time linemates. I don’t think the Oilers can enter next season projecting Lucic on a skill line.
  26. L Tyler Benson. A strong final WHL season (58, 27-42-69) was most impressive because the young man stayed healthy. His NHLE (28.29) suggests he might be closer to Jujhar Khaira than Patrick Maroon as a mature offensive player. Two-way acumen should take him far.
  27. L Ostap Safin. Slide rule. He’s a real find. A fourth rounder scored well in the QMJHL (61, 26-32-58) despite having very little in the way of help in the back half of the season. Spent time in Bakersfield and scored his first professional goal this spring. One to watch.
  28. R Jesse Puljujarvi. A mind numbing season for the youngster, he scored 65, 12-8-20 while playing with damned near every center in captivity. I want to tell the Oilers don’t let go the rope with this young man, if Chiarelli returns my suspicion is the Finn will, too. General managers rarely give up so quickly on their own lottery picks. The only question we have now is how much he’ll score.
  29. R Kailer Yamamoto. He posted three assists in nine NHL games to start the year, and then had an uneven WHL campaign (NHLE: 38). His junior offense suggests he has enough in his bat to play on a skill line, the question is when.
  30. R Pontus Aberg. I liked his game when he came over (16, 2-6-8) and there’s little doubt Aberg will be on the team in the fall. I think the Oilers see him as a skill line option.
  31. R Zack Kassian. I’ve heard more talk about his salary than about Leon’s, and that means it has been the subject many times. He scored 74, 7-12-19 this season but the Oilers haven’t got room for overpriced depth players. He could go.
  32. R Mitch Callahan. He got lost in Bakersfield (45, 2-7-9) this season, Callahan should have a better second year in California.
  33. R Kirill Maksimov. Slide rule. He may end up being the steal of 2017’s draft for Edmonton. Scoring 62, 34-46-80 (NHLE: 31.7) for Niagara IceDogs, Maksimov is a goal-scorer in an organization with very few.

RFA’S

  1. LD Darnell Nurse. Led D in scoring (82, 6-20-26) and had his best year so far, although January+ saw regression from an excellent first half. Nurse is part of the future in Edmonton.
  2. RD Matt Benning. He scored 73, 6-15-21 this season and established himself as a solid NHL defender. Seems to be past the concussion of last season and is rock solid as a third pairing option. He has more offense than some of the other Oil blue. (RFA)
  3. RC Ryan Strome. He scored 82, 13-21-34 and that’s exactly in line with expectations. Strome didn’t get much time with McDavid, one of many curios this season.
  4. The rest: Nick Ellis, Ben Betker, Drake Caggiula, Braden Christoffer, Kyle Platzer, Anton Slepyshev, Iiro Pakarinen, Patrick Russell. (Total: 11)

UFA

  • Laurent Brossoit, Mark Fayne, Yohann Auvitu, Keegan Lowe, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson, Grayson Downing, Mike Cammalleri, Ty Rattie, Brian Ferlin. (10)

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It all happens TSN1260 this morning.

  • Round table at 9am. I’m on with Dustin Nielson and Dean Millard. Oilers postmortem. 
  • 10am. Todd McLellan media avail. 
  • 10:40. Pierre Lebrun.
  • 11:05. Jason Gregor. 
  • 11:20. You! Your comments. 
  • 11:40. Dave Jamieson. 

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

165 Responses to "Once in a Lifetime"

  1. OilClog says:

    Whoever it is that is going to cause Todd to walk if they axe him, axe him.

  2. Wolfpack says:

    I was listening to Millard and Kassian, I assume it was post-game on Saturday, and they were talking about re-signing Rattie. They both agreed that since you could get him on a cheap contract it would be okay if he only scored 15 goals next season since there are only so many goals to go around on the top line and McDavid and RNH would do the bulk of the scoring.

    I understand that PC has backed us into a corner regarding the salary cap, but is this really how far we (the fans and the media) have fallen in terms of our expectations for this team? We should ask the question in another way – If we put a player on Connor McDavid’s wing for the entire year and he scores 15 goals, is he good enough to be playing there? McDavid is a monster 5X5 scorer and the best passer on the freaking planet. Should we not be aiming higher than 15 goals for either one of his wingers? I honestly throught those guys might have been trolling when they suggested how pleased they would be with 15 goals out of a full season from Rattie.

    We need to be aiming SO much higher.

  3. russ99 says:

    Good thread.

    I know you guys put way more value on Corsi and offense for defensemen than I do, but there’s a real disconnect when terms like “solid NHL defender” and “rock solid” is thrown around about Matt Benning when he’s been a real liability in our zone without the puck.

    No amount of puck moving or exit passes makes him a solid defender.

  4. Glass says:

    russ99,

    That’s assuming he never improves. He’s pretty young. I think he can improve in this area.

  5. Richard S.S. says:

    1) Lucic and Russell and Sekera are on No-Trade/Immoveable Contracts costing $15.5 Million on the Cap. Sekera’s injury usually takes around a year to fully recover. I’m not trading him until he asks to be traded or the demand for his services is high. With Lucic and Russell we just have to hope for a better year because they are going nowhere.

    2) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has reached his highest Trade value right now. Despite being a key part of this Team going forward – effective winger, #1/#2 center – his $6.0 Million Cap hit also restricts what the Oilers can do this Offseason. This problem will not be resolve to anyone’s satifaction.

  6. Glass says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Can’t we just make small signings, trade free up Kassian’s cap space, wait a year and then clear Sekera off the books, followed by Russell the year after that? Trading Nuge for a winger feels kind of foolish with how he’s performed with McDavid… and trading him for a RD would make our top 6 far too thin.

    I think bold moves this off season will back fire. I could see a Klef or Nurse traded for a RD (Ristolainen? Barrie? Dumba?)

  7. leadfarmer says:

    I think a year of standing pat and adding vets on very short deals is in order. This team needs a recovery year and our prospect lists are pretty short and most are probably a couple years or more from being able to contribute. We need a few years of adding prospects and cap space growth. See if Lucic can recover some value and see how much to normal Sekera we can get next year.
    So what is going to happen. We’re going on a whale hunt.

  8. Richard S.S. says:

    1) Will Darnell Nurse become a Top-Pairing Defenseman? He needs the ability to shoot much better before that consideration should be reached. I don’t think it will happen. It’s more of an inate talent than it is a teachable one. The Oilers need a true #1 stud Defenseman moer than they need him.

    2) Matthew Benning is an asset as a right shot Defenseman. The question will always be, “How good will he be?” Of one thing I’m sure, he’s not a Top-Pairing Defenseman. But an NHL Defenseman he is.

    3). Ethan Bear is a lot better than expected and he’s shown he’s wiiling to learn. He’s also cheap. I would not be surprised if he’s on the Roster starting next season. Get used to seeing him there.

    Whatever decisions get made about Oscar and Adam will not have any bearing on the previous three. Chances are good they both stay. Despite needing that #1 stud Defenseman more, neither has sufficient Trade demand to make that happen.

  9. "Steve Smith" says:

    Richard S.S.: Of one thing I’m sure, he’s not a Top-Pairing Defenseman.But an NHL Defenseman he is.

    That’s two things.

  10. npanciroli says:

    i think next season you have to bank (maybe not bank but pray) on Lucic rebounding along with Sekera but somehow need to move Russell – maybe it isn’t feasible but this should be the goal IMO.

    I guess the alternative is moving Klefbom for a RHD but I’m just not comfortable going in with Sekera or Russell in the top 4.

    Nurse Larsson
    Klefbom RHD
    Sekera Benning

    would be my goal next year if I was the GM.

    Nurse Larsson
    Sekera Klefbom Trade
    Russell Benning

    isn’t a terrible alternative but a risky play.

  11. Glass says:

    npanciroli,

    Klefbomb is great and all, but we’d be getting an equally good RD (possibly better) back, and our D-corpse if far more balanced. It would also help our PP out quite a ton.

  12. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – While it might be the right thing to do, it would take a lot of courage to come back with all of Klef-Larsson-Sek-Nurse-Benning-Russell

    – Only Benning-Nurse-Klef are practically tradeable (with apologies to LT and others trying to trade Russell and his NMC)

    – Benning is the easiest tor trade (cheap RHD), but then you are looking for his replacement, and not sure if he makes sense unless it ‘s part of a package.

    – Nurse would garner the most (but you’d hate to trade him at this point in his career arc)

    – Klef would hurt the most: you don’t get a lot for him, and your looking for his replacement.

    – A Klef + Benning + prospect for a real upgrade on D might make sense, but it would hurt

    – Finally you could trade RNH, but then your looking for his replacement (either as a winger, or another C)

    – Based on a $80MM cap we can do things, but big things means a lot of in and outs…

  13. rickithebear says:

    russ99:
    Good thread.

    I know you guys put way more value on Corsi and offense for defensemen than I do, but there’s a real disconnect when terms like “solid NHL defender” and “rock solid” is thrown around about Matt Benning when he’s been a real liability in our zone without the puck.

    No amount of puck moving or exit passes makes him a solid defender.

    The theories are:
    1. Offensive Dmen are offensive.
    and
    2. Off Dmen are not Dmen.

    If you spend a couple years looking at video.
    you identify:
    1. the ratio of
    high danger open shot density for (HDOSHF) and HDOSH against.
    you want it to be as low a % as possible.
    It is brutally high.

    2. the % of pocessional Structure of team with with high attacking Dman.
    3-2-1 Dman
    3-1-1-1 Rover
    4-1-1-1 Forward.
    Nurse was a forward in structure large % of the year.
    Klefbom a rover.

  14. Wilde says:

    Glass:
    npanciroli,

    Klefbomb is great and all, but we’d be getting an equally good RD (possibly better) back, and our D-corpse if far more balanced. It would also help our PP out quite a ton.

    Well the base of that argument is ‘if we trade our guy for a better guy we’ll be better”, so

    Looks like Kovalchuk to NYR? No idea why they want to do that. Imagine if they instantly trade him.

    —————————————————————

    Bill Hoppe

    @BillHoppeNHL

    Ryan O’Reilly just talked about losing his love for the game this season. Interesting stuff. #Sabres

    —————————————————————

    Here’s a sobering reminder of why we need to get the bloody hell out of whatever purgatory we’re in.

    Also, I’d move mountains to get RoR on this team.

    That’s not a Lucic joke.

    Well, now it is.

    The worst part about firing the special teams coaches? It’s competitive, but what takes the cake is that people will probably approve of it.

    The best part about us winning the lottery again?

    That was an actual question. It’s also competitive.

  15. digger50 says:

    I don’t know how much Klefbom’s shoulder injury affected his brain, but he was not good defensively this season. Not even close to holding his own some games.

    Benning same thing, he struggled defensively many games. And of course we talked about Reggie.

    Russell is not “the” answer but I think his play was pretty consistent all year. Contract aside, he is a hard working NHL d man.

    I thought Davidson would be the best depth d man available. When he was here he outplayed both Klefbom and Benning to my eye. Rather have him on deck than another long shot prospect.

    Overall I did not think our d men had a good year. But, but but I just cannot figure out how much was the players and how much was the system they were trying to play. That’s why I feel rather than hoping this guy gets a little better and that guy has a better year, I think a coaching change will make everybody a little better.

  16. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – While it might be the right thing to do, it would take a lot of courage to come back with all of Klef-Larsson-Sek-Nurse-Benning-Russell

    – Only Benning-Nurse-Klef are practically tradeable (with apologies to LT and others trying to trade Russell and his NMC)

    – Benning is the easiest tor trade (cheap RHD), but then you are looking for his replacement, and not sure if he makes sense unless it ‘s part of a package.

    – Nurse would garner the most (but you’d hate to trade him at this point in his career arc)

    –Klef would hurt the most: you don’tget a lot for him, and your looking for his replacement.

    – A Klef + Benning + prospect for a real upgrade on D might make sense, but it would hurt

    – Finally you could trade RNH, but then your looking for his replacement (either as a winger, or another C)

    – Based on a $80MM cap we can do things, but big things means a lot of in and outs…

    I think the best course of action is to start next year with the same dcore. If Sekera and Klefbom are both healthy you have a big upgrade right there.
    And forget about the big whale hunt for the mythical 2RD. The only way we are getting him is by trading Nurse or Klefbom. And we probably end up with a poorer dman or a bigger contract. Or both.
    The only thing that realistically improves the defense is something like Klefbom and 2018 1st for OEL. And there is a huge risk involved in terms of future contracts and cap space. Plus I don’t think we have a deep enough prospect pool to be trading away top 10 draft picks.

  17. Wilde says:

    rickithebear,

    I think you may understate the effects of coaching on the way defensemen play.

    You don’t have to sharpen the knives for Klefbom if you modify the defensive structure. Oscar’s clever enough to be a strong defender. He’s got phenomenal stickchecking to stop open looks, and he’s big enough to box guys out.

  18. digger50 says:

    Glass:
    Richard S.S.,

    Can’t we just make small signings, trade free up Kassian’s cap space, wait a year and then clear Sekera off the books, followed by Russell the year after that? Trading Nuge for a winger feels kind of foolish with how he’s performed with McDavid… and trading him for a RD would make our top 6 far too thin.

    I think bold moves this off season will back fire. I could see a Klef or Nurse traded for a RD (Ristolainen? Barrie? Dumba?)

    I think if the coach stays – move Kassian. This coach will not play to his strengths.
    If coach is changed, Kassian will cover his contract next year.

  19. dustrock says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – While it might be the right thing to do, it would take a lot of courage to come back with all of Klef-Larsson-Sek-Nurse-Benning-Russell

    – Only Benning-Nurse-Klef are practically tradeable (with apologies to LT and others trying to trade Russell and his NMC)

    – Benning is the easiest tor trade (cheap RHD), but then you are looking for his replacement, and not sure if he makes sense unless it ‘s part of a package.

    – Nurse would garner the most (but you’d hate to trade him at this point in his career arc)

    –Klef would hurt the most: you don’tget a lot for him, and your looking for his replacement.

    – A Klef + Benning + prospect for a real upgrade on D might make sense, but it would hurt

    – Finally you could trade RNH, but then your looking for his replacement (either as a winger, or another C)

    – Based on a $80MM cap we can do things, but big things means a lot of in and outs…

    I mean, Friedman said the Oilers WILL upgrade their offence after being 27th with defencemen points.

    Chia said that after they lost to Anaheim last year but maybe he means it this time around.

  20. Wilde says:

    Anyone want to add to the misfit target list?

    It’s part LT guys, part from my own digging

    So far I’m looking at:

    – Joshua Ho-Sang

    – Daniel Sprong

    – Josh Leivo

    – Anthony DeAngelo

    – Austin Ortega (fully aware I’m the only person who gives a shit)

    – Jordan Schmaltz

    – Matthew Highmore

    – Jared McCann

    – Denis Malgin

    – Valentin Zykov

    – Giovanni Fiore

    Dreaming on a couple, I know.

  21. godot10 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    1) Lucic and Russell and Sekera are on No-Trade/Immoveable Contracts costing $15.5 Million on the Cap.Sekera’s injury usually takes around a year to fully recover.I’m not trading him until he asks to be traded or the demand for his services is high.With Lucic and Russell we just have to hope for a better year because they are going nowhere.

    2) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has reached his highest Trade value right now.Despite being a key part of this Team going forward – effective winger, #1/#2 center – his $6.0 Million Cap hit also restricts what the Oilers can do this Offseason.This problem will not be resolve to anyone’s satifaction.

    It is impossible to find a better left wing for Connor McDavid with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins price point and remaining duration on his contract. McDavid Nugent-Hopkins and whoever will be a hundred goal line next year if all stay healthy.

  22. Wilde says:

    Carolina Hurricanes

    Verified account

    @NHLCanes
    6m
    6 minutes ago

    More
    .@TDCanes said the #Canes need a major shakeup, saying “either the players have to be tougher or you bring in tougher players.”

    Maybe I’m not dreaming on Valentin Zykov?

    We’ve got ‘toughness’ to spare.

  23. Jaxon says:

    Shouldn’t Cooper Marody be your 1st or 2nd C in your prospect table?

  24. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    rickithebear,

    I think you may understate the effects of coaching on the way defensemen play.

    You don’t have to sharpen the knives for Klefbom if you modify the defensive structure. Oscar’s clever enough to be a strong defender. He’s got phenomenal stickchecking to stop open looks, and he’s big enough to box guys out.

    Todd Nelson dialed in Klefbom’s defensive game once. He could do it again. The “problem” with Klefbom is all coaching.

  25. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    Anyone want to add to the misfit target list?

    It’s part LT guys, part from my own digging

    So far I’m looking at:

    – Joshua Ho-Sang

    – Daniel Sprong

    – Josh Leivo

    – Anthony DeAngelo

    – Austin Ortega (fully aware I’m the only person who gives a shit)

    – Jordan Schmaltz

    – Matthew Highmore

    – Jared McCann

    – Denis Malgin

    – Valentin Zykov

    – Giovanni Fiore

    Dreaming on a couple, I know.

    Tobias Rieder.

  26. digger50 says:

    Wilde:
    Anyone want to add to the misfit target list?

    It’s part LT guys, part from my own digging

    So far I’m looking at:

    – Joshua Ho-Sang

    – Daniel Sprong

    – Josh Leivo

    – Anthony DeAngelo

    – Austin Ortega (fully aware I’m the only person who gives a shit)

    – Jordan Schmaltz

    – Matthew Highmore

    – Jared McCann

    – Denis Malgin

    – Valentin Zykov

    – Giovanni Fiore

    Dreaming on a couple, I know.

    How about Jake Virtanen?

    He’s done nothing since his draft. I thought Vancouver was read to move on. Yet he looked pretty good his two games against Oilers.

    Thoughts?

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde,

    – The Oil would love to get Faulk I bet.

    – His salary is $5.5, cap $4.8: Klef is cheaper as is Nurse on a Bridge

    – Nurse + for Faulk? I have no clue, but that is what you are talking about….Hurts

    * I mean Klef or Nurse is cheaper for Carolina, a spend-thrift team

  28. CaptainObvious says:

    Wilde:
    Anyone want to add to the misfit target list?

    It’s part LT guys, part from my own digging

    So far I’m looking at:

    – Joshua Ho-Sang

    – Daniel Sprong

    – Josh Leivo

    – Anthony DeAngelo

    – Austin Ortega (fully aware I’m the only person who gives a shit)

    – Jordan Schmaltz

    – Matthew Highmore

    – Jared McCann

    – Denis Malgin

    – Valentin Zykov

    – Giovanni Fiore

    Dreaming on a couple, I know.

    Derek Ryan As a fourth line center on a cheap contract

    Means RNH can play winger
    Means Khaira can play winger

    Yaroslav Halak offer $2.5 for one year.

  29. doritogrande says:

    Anyone want to add to the misfit target list?

    Marko Dano.

  30. CaptainObvious says:

    “RC Ryan Strome. He scored 82, 13-21-34 and that’s exactly in line with expectations. Strome didn’t get much time with McDavid, one of many curios this season.”

    Not a curio to me.

    The guy was brought in to be an above average 3rd line center on a good contract.

    Conner
    Leon
    Strome
    4th

    He was given time to settle in to the new team, new envions, new system.

    More playing time with McDavid might have been counter-productive / at odds with the goal.

    He will be a value contract at anything under $2.85 million AVV.

    Probably gets his $3m for one year (qualifiying offer) But may if we are fortunate sign for 2 or 3 years for slightly less AVV

  31. CaptainObvious says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Wilde,

    – The Oil would love to get Faulk I bet.

    – His salary is $5.5, cap $4.8: Klef is cheaper as is Nurse on a Bridge

    – Nurse + for Faulk?I have no clue, but that is what you are talking about….Hurts

    * I mean Klef or Nurse is cheaper for Carolina, a spend-thrift team

    I think they would love to get Barrie more……and Klef or Nurse might get it done. (allow Colorado to talk to Nurse in the offseason) or do the Oilers need to sweeten by throwing in Benning?

    Nurse Larsson
    Sekera Barrie
    Russell Bear
    Lowe/Auvitu Evan Bouchard/Noah Dobson

  32. Wilde says:

    digger50: How about Jake Virtanen?

    He’s done nothing since his draft. I thought Vancouver was read to move on. Yet he looked pretty good his two games against Oilers.

    Thoughts?

    Virtanen’s a lottery pick that was selected by the current general manager, and is a hometown boy. He’ll get a hell of a lot of rope unless I’m reading it all wrong. The main criteria for the list is ‘does this player have more value to the Oilers than to their current team’, and I think Vancouver may be the team that values Virtanen the highest in the NHL.

    doritogrande:
    Anyone want to add to the misfit target list?

    Marko Dano.

    Good one. Marko Dano is the lowest a/TOI player on Winnipeg, and has been traded twice already. Typically teams don’t move guys within a few years of trading for them, but he’s an exception due to usage and depth.

    CaptainObvious: Derek RyanAs a fourth line center on a cheap contract

    Means RNH can play winger
    Means Khaira can play winger

    This is a very realistic one, given the Alberta connection and if Todd McLellan returns, he’ll likely want a veteran option as 4C, after he has some time to look at how the Khaira thing turned out down the stretch. We know that Todd looks at goal differential for lines.

    I also posted a tweet in this thread about shakeup in Carolina. A lot of factors in convention here, a smart pick, although a popular one, so no hipster points for you.

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Wilde,

    – The Oil would love to get Faulk I bet.

    – His salary is $5.5, cap $4.8: Klef is cheaper as is Nurse on a Bridge

    – Nurse + for Faulk?I have no clue, but that is what you are talking about….Hurts

    * I mean Klef or Nurse is cheaper for Carolina, a spend-thrift team

    Faulk is an interesting one. He costs too much right now, I think.

    Strike later on him. Say Dundon fires Bill Peters, or brings in a new GM that wants their own HC pick. If that HC doesn’t take kindly to Faulk’s defensive abilities, in the midst of a poor start for Carolina, he may be available for a November price.

    Perhaps you start talking to the new Carolina GM, make small deals with him in the summer. Build rapport so that you’re high on his contact list in dire times.

  33. Kraz says:

    Just a random thought but has anyone ever thought about icing 4 forwards and 1 D late in the game down by a goal? Not sure how all of it would work but to me it seems like a better bet than pulling your goalie early. Let’s say 5 Min left and down by one with an offensive zone draw you ice a lineup of Nuge, Draisatl, Pulj, McDavid and Larsson. It would obviously be chaotic and need to be practiced before hand but to me it’s a good way to get as much skill on the ice as possible and increase your chances of scoring

  34. CaptainObvious says:

    ” A mind numbing season for the youngster, he scored 65, 12-8-20 while playing with damned near every center in captivity. I want to tell the Oilers don’t let go the rope with this young man, if Chiarelli returns my suspicion is the Finn will, too. General managers rarely give up so quickly on their own lottery picks. The only question we have now is how much he’ll score.”

    JP needs to produce a 20-20-40 season as a middle six winger next year. Otherwise he puts himself at risk.

    I am confident he can go 15-15-30 but that may not be enough.

    Hopefully his boxcars get boosted by more PP2 time. And an eventual move up to the second line.

    If he cant score like Rantanen I would love to see this kid learn to be more Esa Tikanen/Claude Lemieux …..no fights…just a lot of agitation and some clutch goals. Can a player learn to be a shit disturber…or is genetic?

  35. Richard S.S. says:

    There will be a lot of Talent available this Offseason and for more reasons than we can imagine. Which #1 Stud Defenseman are available? One thing to remember this Offseason, when Connor McDavid is not on the Ice, this is not even a good AHL team. When Connor McDavid doesn’t score a point this team consistently loses. The Defense should back to normal health next year, so they’ll be good enough. Goaltending will good enough. Offense needs all the help it can get.

  36. Wilde says:

    godot10: Tobias Rieder.

    This is another good one, he cost almost nothing to acquire at the deadline.

    Bet he comes even cheaper if LAK go out in the first round.

  37. Wilde says:

    Richard S.S.:

    Which #1 Stud Defenseman are available?

    What’s the definition?

  38. Ribs says:

    Kraz:
    Just a random thought but has anyone ever thought about icing 4 forwards and 1 D late in the game down by a goal? Not sure how all of it would work but to me it seems like a betterbet than pulling your goalie early. Let’s say 5 Min left and down by one with an offensive zone draw you ice a lineup of Nuge, Draisatl, Pulj, McDavid and Larsson. It would obviously be chaotic and need to be practiced before hand but to me it’s a good way to get as much skill on the ice as possible and increase your chances of scoring

    It’s tough because you can’t assume you’ll have possession of the puck when it’s not an odd man situation.

  39. rickithebear says:

    npanciroli:

    I guess the alternative is moving Klefbom for a RHD but I’m just not comfortable going in with Sekera or Russell in the top 4.

    VGK copied my Cup core theory:
    1. Best HD sys coach available
    Gallant

    2.chased top 10 HD goalie
    Fluery

    3. 3+ top (40 preferred – top 60) HD dmen
    Acquired as many top 60 HD dmen In order of highest rank to lowest
    Mcnabb
    Stoner
    Schmidt
    TVR
    Miller
    Sbisa
    Garrison
    Engelland higher ranked as a 0% Corsi Dman.

    4. Highest Cummulative top 125 Fwds looking at last 3 seasosn 14-15 to 16-17
    Avg for 3 years
    Eakins top 125 1 of 3 yr +1.00 125 Fwd
    16-17 .69 125 fwd (EV/SH TOI)

    Marchesault top 125 1 of 2 yr =1.44 125 fwd
    16-17 1.76 125 fwd

    Neal top 125 2 of 3 yr = 1.46 125 fwd
    16-17 1.46 125 fwd

    Perron 125 2 of 3 yr = 1.02 125 fwd
    16-17 1.23 125 fwd

    R. Smith 125 1 of 3 yr = 1.10 125 fwd
    16-17 1.43 125 fwd

    _________________ Give increased EV and PP TOI
    Haula .86 125 Fwd (EV/SH TOI)
    16-17 1.61 125 fwd

    Karlsson .53 125 Fwd (EV/SH bott 6 TOI)
    16-17 2.34 125 fwd unsustainable Goals;
    1.66 125 fwd based on sustainable (G & EV/PP TOI)

    5. Strong EVg numbers from Bott 6
    Tuch 78gm 11 EVG
    Eakins 80gm 10 EVG 1 SHG
    Carpenter 36gm 8 EVG 1 SHG
    Lindberg 63gm 9 EVG

    6. Positive Goal difdf special teams.
    PK karlsson; Haula; Eakin;
    Mcnabb; Schmidt; Miller; Engelland

  40. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Todd Nelson dialed in Klefbom’s defensive game once.He could do it again.The “problem” with Klefbom is all coaching.

    Klefbom had his most consistent 1st comp HD games in his career with Fayne.

    t\There are the rare Dmen who can still defend HD area on their Own when their OFF dman is a Rover. 3F – 1R – 1D – 1G
    Burns had his HD def #’s go down with Martin.
    Fayne had the same ability.

    Amazing that the 2 Dmen sent out for being trouble in the room were both products of the best HD dman generators (NJD). they questioned the areas we were defending.
    Souray and Fayne
    both top 10 1st comp HD Dmen.
    PC sends out our best young HD dman in Marincin.

  41. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Todd Nelson dialed in Klefbom’s defensive game once.He could do it again.The “problem” with Klefbom is all coaching.

    I don’t understand this,

    How exactly is a 24 year old 5 year pro performance on the ice a coach issue?

    They practice 1-4 times a week for 45 minutes as a team; spend time with a video coach for 20-40 minutes a week and do fitness with a different coach. The HC+ Assistant coach might talk to these professionals one hour a week.

    If Klefbolm is getting 22 minutes a night in games and not performing that is at least 75% on him to improve his play.

  42. Side says:

    Woogie63: I don’t understand this,

    How exactly is a 24 year old 5 year pro performance on the ice a coach issue?

    They practice 1-4 times a week for 45 minutes as a team; spend time with a video coach for 20-40minutes a weekand do fitness with a different coach.The HC+ Assistant coach might talk to these professionals one hour a week.

    If Klefbolm is getting 22 minutes a night in games and not performingthat is at least 75% on him to improve his play.

    When reading a godot post about coaching, it’s best to remember the following:

    – Todd Nelson > McLellan > Babcock

    – if a player takes a step forward under McLellan, they are doing so in spite of Todd

    – if a player is not performing well under McLellan, it’s Todd’s fault

    – Todd is mediocre and will never be good at anything coaching related

  43. Wilde says:

    Woogie63: I don’t understand this,

    How exactly is a 24 year old 5 year pro performance on the ice a coach issue?

    Do you not have to play a system as soon as you turn 24?

    And on an individual basis, HCs say stuff like “we want x to shoot more”. Listen to McLellan’s presser today. From Klefbom’s play, especially early on you could easily see, in data and on video, that they wanted him to pinch more and shoot more on the PP. Didn’t they say something about 400 shots before the season?

    Woogie63:

    If Klefbolm is getting 22 minutes a night in games and not performingthat is at least 75% on him to improve his play.

    This sounds like a good philosophy to never have to question the men upstairs.

    The conversation isn’t about whether or not Klefbom is executing his role well. It’s whether or not the role he’s to play is the one he’s best suited to.

    The individual’s performance is 100% irrelevant in this context.

  44. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: I don’t understand this,

    How exactly is a 24 year old 5 year pro performance on the ice a coach issue?

    Off the top of my head.

    Justin Schultz in Edmonton vs. Justin Schultz in Pittsburgh.

    Jason Smith in Edmonton vs. Jason Smith in Toronto

    Andrew MacDonald under Hakstol vs. Andrew MacDonald under Craig Berube in Philadelphia.

    Larry Murphy under Scotty Bowman vs. Larry Murphy in under Mike Murphy in Toronto

    Dmitri Kulikov in Florida and Winnipeg vs. Dmitri Kulikov in Buffalo.

  45. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: I don’t understand this,

    How exactly is a 24 year old 5 year pro performance on the ice a coach issue?

    They practice 1-4 times a week for 45 minutes as a team; spend time with a video coach for 20-40minutes a weekand do fitness with a different coach.The HC+ Assistant coach might talk to these professionals one hour a week.

    If Klefbolm is getting 22 minutes a night in games and not performingthat is at least 75% on him to improve his play.

    And note, I was complaining about the way McLellan was using Klefbom in the fall before he had this underwhelming season. The coach doesn’t understand the strengths and the weaknesses of the player Klefbom is. He accentuates Klefbom’s weaknesses because he wants Klefbom to be something he isn’t.

  46. Side says:

    godot10: Off the top of my head.

    Justin Schultz in Edmonton vs. Justin Schultz in Pittsburgh.

    I truly do not understand why you keep using Schultz as an example of a coaching issue.

    The org. failed Schultz by playing him out of his depth and by putting the ‘Norris winner’ expectations on his shoulders.

    When Schultz went to Pittsburgh, he played on the bottom pairings, did he not? He didn’t have that in Edmonton because even though he was playing poorly, he was still better than the AHL D the Oilers had so they couldn’t play him in a lower pairing.

  47. Cassandra says:

    I love how Ricki uses Vegas as an example of “his” theory,

    For those who like to live in the real world here are some real world stats.

    Vegas was 14th in the league in Corsi against.
    Vegas was 14th in the league in GA.
    Vegas was 13th in the league in HD scoring chances against.

    So basically the evidence is the opposite of what Ricki says it is.

  48. Wilde says:

    Side,

    Schultz was a GM /and/ HC thing, I think.

    Chiarelli was willing to make personnel decisions despite the coaches disagreement on a number of things(Leon’s ‘C’ contract and lack of RW replacement), but then turned around and completely gave way to the HC’s assessment of the players in the case of Schultz, Russell, etc.

    Both sides of the compromise are moves that hurt the team.

    This tandem of HC and GM are less than the sum of their parts.

    While being suspect individually as well

    Continuity!!

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: It is impossible to find a better left wing for Connor McDavid with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins price point and remaining duration on his contract.McDavid Nugent-Hopkins and whoever will be a hundred goal line next year if all stay healthy.

    +1

    Any Nugent-Hopkins-for-a-winger trade will be another lost trade.

  50. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Off the top of my head.

    Justin Schultz in Edmonton vs. Justin Schultz in Pittsburgh.

    Jason Smith in Edmonton vs. Jason Smith in Toronto

    Andrew MacDonald under Hakstol vs. Andrew MacDonald under Craig Berube in Philadelphia.

    Larry Murphy under Scotty Bowman vs. Larry Murphy in under Mike Murphy in Toronto

    Dmitri Kulikov in Florida and Winnipeg vs. Dmitri Kulikov in Buffalo.

    Why couldn’t the explanation be the player realized if he didn’t train better, he could be out of the NHL. Or he recovered from an injury. Or he was slotted in the wrong spot, due to the balance of options for the coach?

    When my son fluked his accounting mid term he took the project and final exam more serious than he did the mid term and got a better mark. Same professor more focus from the student.

  51. Wilde says:

    Wonder what Kevin Hayes costs at the draft?

  52. npanciroli says:

    Trading Nurse would be a huge mistake IMO. If you really need to trade a LHD not named Sekera or Russell then I think Klefbom is the one.

  53. digger50 says:

    Edmonton has been coveting a number 1 defensman as long as they we’re coveting a Milan Lucic. I fear if they go after that proven #1 we will be in a similar situation as with Milan’s contract.

    I think the only way we get there is to find that #1 before he has proven himself and is affordable. On that note we are still better off betting on Nurse, Klefbom, Larson and add another bet at the draft.

    Who else is out there with unrecognized #1 potential? (Montreal already traded Sergachev!)

  54. rickithebear says:

    Richard S.S.:
    There will be a lot of Talent available this Offseason and for more reasons than we can imagine.Which #1 Stud Defenseman are available?One thing to remember this Offseason, when Connor McDavid is not on the Ice, this is not even a good AHL team.When Connor McDavid doesn’t score a point this team consistently loses.The Defense should back to normal health next year, so they’ll be good enough.Goaltending will good enough.Offense needs all the help it can get.

    we know Draisatl is a top 10 EVP forward playing with Mcdavid.
    we saw 16 games of RNH-MCdavid and Draisatl without Mcdavid at even.
    RNH
    16gm 8G 9A 17P 1.06 PPG
    7 EVG 7EVA 14 EVP +14
    0 PPG 2 PPA 2 PPP
    1 SHG 0 SHA 1 SHP

    Mcdavid
    16gm 12G 19A 31P 1.94 PPG
    10 EVG 15 EVA 25 EVP +13
    1 PPG 4 PPA 5 PPP
    ! SHG 0 SHA 1 SHP

    Draisatl with Mcdavid
    80gm 25G 42A 67P
    16EVG 32 EVA 48 EVP
    8PPG 11PPA 19 PPP

    without Mcdavid suggests
    80gm 21G 41A 62P
    11 EVG 31 EVA 42 EVP (top 60)
    10 PPG 10 PPA 20PPP
    SH TOI we saw 3 SHG 4 SHP

  55. Side says:

    Wilde:
    Side,

    Schultz was a GM /and/ HC thing, I think.

    Chiarelli was willing to make personnel decisions despite the coaches disagreement on a number of things(Leon’s ‘C’ contract and lack of RW replacement), but then turned around and completely gave way to the HC’s assessment of the players in the case of Schultz, Russell, etc.

    Both sides of the compromise are moves that hurt the team.

    This tandem of HC and GM are less than the sum of their parts.

    While being suspect individually as well

    Continuity!!

    I think both Chia and McLellan should go, imo, but not because of how they handled Schultz. I think Schultz was already broken by the time they got a hold of him. The only way they could have “repaired” Schultz was by getting him better D partners and playing him on a lower pairing, like how Pittsburgh was able to do and even then it seemed to take awhile for Schultz to get his confidence back. Even then I don’t know if Schultz would have found his game in this city.

    I remember being at the game (one of the games?) where Schultz was boo’d, I believe it was against the Senators? Schultz was in the Oilers zone and his d partner made a cross ice pass to Schultz. Schultz had zero pressure on him, until he bobbled the pass from his d partner and a Senators winger blew past Schultz, collected the puck and rifled in a goal. Definitely not a good look for Schultz and was not exactly uncommon for him in his last stretch with Edmonton. I don’t blame the GM or HC for wanting to move on the player, and I don’t blame Schultz for playing with zero confidence.

  56. npanciroli says:

    Wilde,

    And weren’t people here saying it’s been bad the year prior as well except for insanely hot goaltending early?

  57. Wayne Kenov says:

    If Vegas signs Fayne, then I’ll believe they are using the Rickibox. The rest of the evidence is uncorroborated.

  58. Wayne Kenov says:

    Cassandra:
    I love how Ricki uses Vegas as an example of “his” theory,

    For those who like to live in the real world here are some real world stats.

    Vegas was 14th in the league in Corsi against.
    Vegas was 14th in the league in GA.
    Vegas was 13th in the league in HD scoring chances against.

    So basically the evidence is the opposite of what Ricki says it is.

    Your not using Ricki’s database!!! I see this all the time. If you use peer reviewed data, you are sure to get the wrong answer.

  59. Woogie63 says:

    Wilde: Do you not have to play a system as soon as you turn 24?

    And on an individual basis, HCs say stuff like “we want x to shoot more”. Listen to McLellan’s presser today. From Klefbom’s play, especially early on you could easily see, in data and on video, that they wanted him to pinch more and shoot more on the PP. Didn’t they say something about 400 shots before the season?

    This sounds like a good philosophy to never have to question the men upstairs.

    The conversation isn’t about whether or not Klefbom is executing his role well. It’s whether or not the role he’s to play is the one he’s best suited to.

    The individual’s performance is 100% irrelevant in this context.

    I agree deployment of players impacts the players performance, I agree the coach can influence the quality coming out of the player. We also agree the quality of players playing together influences the outcome. Where we may disagree is the percentage that the coach (GM) owns and the percentage the player owns.

    I am closer the player owning 75% of his result.

  60. Wilde says:

    Side: I think both Chia and McLellan should go, imo, but not because of how they handled Schultz. I think Schultz was already broken by the time they got a hold of him.The only way they could have “repaired” Schultz was by getting him better D partners and playing him on a lower pairing, like how Pittsburgh was able to do and even then it seemed to take awhile for Schultz to get his confidence back. Even then I don’t know if Schultz would have found his game in this city.

    I remember being at the game (one of the games?) where Schultz was boo’d, I believe it was against the Senators?Schultz was in the Oilers zone and his d partner made a cross ice pass to Schultz.Schultz had zero pressure on him, until he bobbled the pass from his d partner and a Senators winger blew past Schultz, collected the puck and rifled in a goal. Definitely not a good look for Schultz and was not exactly uncommon for him in his last stretch with Edmonton.I don’t blame the GM or HC for wanting to move on the player, and I don’t blame Schultz for playing with zero confidence.

    I thought that at the time, and still did even after for a long while.

    But there’s guys that have these black clouds over them that still turn it around without being traded. If we had Toronto’s roster, Kadri would have been shipped for attitude problems. Alex Killorn apparently was phoning it in since signing his new contract. Colorado played it cool with their guys too.

    Winning changes everything.

  61. Wilde says:

    Woogie63: I agree deployment of players impacts the players performance, I agree the coach can influence the quality coming out of the player.We also agree the quality of players playing together influences the outcome. Where we may disagree is the percentage that the coach (GM)owns and the percentage the player owns.

    I am closer the player owning 75% of his result.

    You entirely missed the point. Again, this is not about who ‘owns’ what.

    We are talking about the part that the coach owns. It doesn’t matter what he doesn’t in this context.

  62. Oil2Oilers says:

    With a 9th or 10th overall pick I am totally comfortable with doing the Woodguy’ – 1st for Tanev trade.

  63. CaptainObvious says:

    Question for the Group. Cause it is that time of year.

    If Chia gets fired, who of the available options do you want to see replace him and, briefly, why that guy?

  64. rickithebear says:

    Strome (21-24) Arb RFA 2.875 – 3.125M
    80gm 14G 24A 38P
    12 EVG 19 EVA 31 EVP
    2 PPG 4 PPA 6 PPP
    0 SHG 1 SHA 1 SHP

    Hayes (22-25) Arb RFA
    78gm 18G 25A 43P
    13 EVG 20 EVA 33 EVP
    4 PPG 3 PPA 7 PPP
    1 SHG 2 SHA 3 SHP

    Straight 1 for 1?????

  65. npanciroli says:

    Wilde,

    If they can somehow make this happen I am totally for it.

    Concerned about RNH, but maybe they have a Sekera/Russell and first overall or something up their sleeve?

  66. Side says:

    Wilde: I thought that at the time, and still did even after for a long while.

    But there’s guys that have these black clouds over them that still turn it around without being traded. If we had Toronto’s roster, Kadri would have been shipped for attitude problems. Alex Killorn apparently was phoning it in since signing his new contract.Colorado played it cool with their guys too.

    Winning changes everything.

    Winning can change everything. Unfortunately, the Oilers rarely ever win so it’s hard to see if things can change from winning, or they’re stuck with a player that will continuously decline despite winning

  67. CaptainObvious says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    With a 9th or 10th overall pick I am totally comfortable with doing the Woodguy’ – 1st for Tanev trade.

    Interesting. He 28 years old. Averages 60 games a year (less in the last two seasons 53 & 42) has never scored more than 6 goals in an NHL season. Has scored 8 goals total in the last 3 years combined. $4.45m AVV

  68. Wilde says:

    Side: Winning can change everything. Unfortunately, the Oilers rarely ever win so it’s hard to see if things can change from winning, or they’re stuck with a player that will continuously decline despite winning

    Right, which is why we have to look to other organisations and see if their patience with problem players has paid off, and I believe it has

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    And forget about the big whale hunt for the mythical 2RD.

    2RDs are not myths.

    Most teams have one.

    Some teams even have 2 players who can play that role.

    True story.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra:
    I love how Ricki uses Vegas as an example of “his” theory,

    For those who like to live in the real world here are some real world stats.

    Vegas was 14th in the league in Corsi against.
    Vegas was 14th in the league in GA.
    Vegas was 13th in the league in HD scoring chances against.

    So basically the evidence is the opposite of what Ricki says it is.

    You know who followed Rickis HD theory? The 2007-2015 Edmonton Oilers. So many HD defensemen

  71. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    And forget about the big whale hunt for the mythical 2RD.

    2RDs are not myths.

    Most teams have one.

    Some teams even have 2 players who can play that role.

    True story.

    Yeah right, next you’ll be telling us that Sasquatch and the Loch Ness exist, too.

  72. Wayne Kenov says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    And forget about the big whale hunt for the mythical 2RD.

    2RDs are not myths.

    Most teams have one.

    Some teams even have 2 players who can play that role.

    True story.

    Bet you think there are top six wingers too. Ridiculous!!!

  73. SwedishPoster says:

    Berglund’s Skellefteå is up 3-1 in the semifinal series vs Lagesson’s Djurgården after a 3-2 overtime victory tonight.
    Berglund has been the better of the two in the series as he has been throughout the playoffs. Lagesson hasn’t been bad but Berglund is having a very strong playoffs, he’s leading the whole thing in +/- for example.
    Tonight Berglund was even in 19:20, was involved in the first GA when he couldn’t get hold of a puck behind his own net but got it back with an assist on the first goal forward for his team. Lagesson was – 1 in 18:45, he’s not as noticeable as Berglund on the ice but is solid though had some trouble keeping up at times in a game that was played in a crazy high pace.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: Yeah right, next you’ll be telling us that Sasquatch and the Loch Ness exist, too.

    Don’t be ridiculous, of course they’re myths.

    Ogopogo and unicorns on the other hand are real.

  75. Wayne Kenov says:

    Side: Yeah right, next you’ll be telling us that Sasquatch and the Loch Ness exist, too.

    Courtney love DID kill Kurt Cobain.

  76. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Side: Yeah right, next you’ll be telling us that Sasquatch and the Loch Ness exist, too.

    Surely, this fellow will change your minds…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WREjMeJnoto

  77. --hudson-- says:

    Todd’s post-season availability. I’m breaking it down into three parts, hoping it makes it through the spam filter.

    Part 1

    Source video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk4d25EqGn0
    ————————————————–
    Q: To begin with, I know you visited Saskatchewan yesterday. I know it’s obviously very tragic and difficult, but can you just kind of take us through that experience?
    A: It was, you know this is gonna sound very strange, but it was rewarding to go, and be able to spend time with that group… and when I say that group, there’s a lot of focus on obviously the victims and the players, that are in the hospital right now, but the group is immensely or much bigger than we can imagine. You know, I never considered billets, and billets families, and that the extended family – their grandma’s, grandpa’s, girlfriends that are sitting there, cousins… you know the hospital was full of those people that were affected by it. The day was full of emotions from every possible range from pure mourning, to actually some joy in the day, and it was very impactful. So those players are, we use the word hockey strong a lot because they are hockey strong, you could see them, they’re young strong lads that are… well they’re hockey strong, they need to be hockey strong right now, and they’ll fight through it. But as I mentioned earlier, that the amount of support that has poured in is overwhelming, and as the days go on it will likely diminish, but that’s when they’re going to need it the most. So the emergency responders, the people that I met yesterday, they’re preparing for that, they’re preparing for a week from now, ten days from now, a month, a year from now. And they’re tremendous people too, they don’t get talked about enough. You know one thing that I recognized in that situation, as well is that, you know it’s the Humboldt Broncos, they play in the Saskatchewan Junior League, it’s a men’s or a male league, there was a female on that bus. A female trainer, you know and everybody asked me how are the boys doing, how are the guys doing, are they good, do they need anything… She was a big part of that team too, and she’s in the hospital, and you know as they used the male term, they kind of leave her out and I want to bring her back into the team environment. She meant a lot to that team, and does mean a lot to that community, so… and she’s going through what all those other players are going through as well. So you know… I believe her name was Dana… or is Dana and you know… I might be wrong, I met so many people yesterday, but you guys can correct me if I am wrong and… But it was it was a rewarding day in that, both the Oilers and the Flames, the upper management from ownership down were very supportive of both Glen and I going, and we’re very thankful. We were lucky enough, a friend of mine Dave Boucher, offered his jet, donated that time and we were able to get in and out, and do the things that we needed to do. So it’s amazing how much emotion takes out of an individual. I felt tired last night and… but just looking at the families and what they’re going through, they’re gonna need some help. Sorry I’m rambling…

    Q: Todd, now for your team obviously it wasn’t a good season. If you go back and just kind of recap the year, is it too simple to say just the bad start, you were just never able to recover from as a group?
    A: I think that’s too simple, we’ve got to dig deeper, we’re going to dig deeper, or we’re gonna turn over a lot of stones, and we’re gonna look at individuals. And now when I say that, it’s top down, there’s people above me that have to evaluate situations, and they are and they will. You know when I talk about what we’re gonna do, it’s usually from Peter and I on down, and we’re gonna you know turn everything over, we’re gonna look at individuals, their performances, why they were really good, why they weren’t, what impacted we as the coaching staff have on that, how can we help them, then we’ll look at the them as individuals, how do they manage themselves, what could they change, what recommendations would we give them, what will they give us, and we’ll work on those things together. Then we’ll put pieces together, we’ll look at pairs, and lines, and combinations of players, we’ll look at systemic play, specialty teams, approaches to practice, tempo and practice drill selection. There’s a whole gamut of review that has to be done, we’ll look at where the game is going, what we need to do to play the way the game is going to have success, so we’ve got work ahead of us.

    Q: Todd a couple of months ago you talked about expectations, that they were really high externally, and you, I think you mentioned Vegas, that it was low expectations and they were performing at a really high level, and the expectations here externally were really high, and the team didn’t perform as well. How do you go into next season in terms of expectations, keeping the external stuff maybe outside of it, but internally how do you set expectations for next year?
    A: Well we… you know I’m gonna go all the way back to our team meeting last year. We lost in game seven to Anaheim, we flew back, we met the next day, and there was a good feeling around the group, but in that team meeting we tried to turn the page already to the next year, and get the players to begin to think that they’re back at the start line. You know they just finished running the marathon, they collapsed, they’re tired, but they’re happy they finished the marathon. They extended their mileage a lot longer than they did in the past, and everything was in a pretty good spot, but we began to get them to think about starting a new one, and that happened in that meeting. We reminded them many times throughout the summer, you know the white noise that’s out there, created through media, and friends and family and agents, and all that type of stuff exists every year. It was a new way of us having to deal with it last year, we didn’t deal with it real well, despite all the warning. Coming in to training camp, the very first meeting that we had was… the first meeting we had was one where we readdressed it. I thought going into training camp we worked, but we still had that, you know left shoulder, right shoulder who are we listening to thing going on. For me the biggest battle is after the first game against Calgary, we played well, in fact flying with Glen Gulutzan yesterday, he thought that was one of the toughest games they played all year. We took some real gratification, if you will in that game, and then I think we only played two games for the next ten days, and that was the period where I believe it got away on us a little bit, and you can’t turn back time. We never did get through it, and when you don’t perform well enough, you begin to look at reasons why, and yeah expectations come up. We just didn’t play well enough this year, we didn’t get enough out of the coaching staff, you know the head coach, the coaching staff, the players and when you have a year like that, you end up where we did. Last year we got more than we could out of the team, and we ended up at an upper level. So we’re somewhere in between.

  78. --hudson-- says:

    Part 2

    Q: Todd, you talk often about your team not being made for today’s NHL, in terms of being fast, and you know it’s not necessarily how you skate but how you think. In reflection the season’s over, does your team play like today’s NHL teams have to play?
    A: Well I’ve never talked about our team not being made the way we need to be played, never once have I brought that up. I’ve talked about elements that our team needs to do better, and you know that would be pace. There’s a very good chance we are built the right way, with the players that we have, it’s just getting them to do it, and there’s no doubt that the teams in the league that are having success now play at a very high pace. But I’ve said numerous times throughout the year that’s not just skating, and when you have 22/23 to 30 year old players, some of them are at the max that they’re going to get to, they can go to skating school all they want over the summer, they’re only going to play at a certain pace or speed through their legs. The pace of the game is going to come through their passing skills, they’re receiving skills, their anticipation skills, their confidence level, the ability that their teammate has to do to deliver the puck at the right time. So it’s not just putting the skates on and let’s skate faster, it’s executing faster, it’s reading quicker. Our team has to get better at that and the pieces may very well be in there, we have to challenge them, and approach it a certain way to get more out of them.

    Q: Todd, yesterday a lot of the players spoke about what they felt they didn’t do well, they want to work on individually. As a coaching staff, what do you take back and when you look at a coaching staff, you’ve done it every year, what are you looking for to say “okay we didn’t excel in this area as a coach” or “we did there.” How do you break it down, what do you look for faults, or negatives from a coaching staff?
    A: When you have experience, and this is why sometimes experience is important, we’ve been in the league now for a lot of years, and you review. I keep a little notebook, and I write notes every day, and I go back, and I can go back to 2005 our first training campaign in Detroit. I can go to San Jose in that first training again, I can go back to Edmonton’s, and I could open up and see notes and compare, and after day 1 at training camp we’ll talk about what we did well, what we didn’t do well, did we like the meeting, did we like the presentation, did the players get the message, and we try and take bits and pieces. Obviously 2005 is too far away now, but in the last three years here, what did we like, what didn’t we like, that would be the approach to the season, to training camp… Then we look at where we are systematically, do we need to alter adjusting, we made adjustments through the year, we dramatically changed our penalty kill, got some good results from it down the stretch. Powerplay, five-on-five play, the presentation of our ideas, both off the ice, and on the ice, the accountability factor, are we over aggressive with it, are we under aggressive with it, are we going after the right players, are we rewarding the right players. That’s what coaches do, that’s not just the Edmonton Oilers, Todd McClellan, and everybody else. That’s happening… the team that wins the Stanley Cup is going to do that you know. So it’s… the performance of the team is on my shoulder, so I’m the head coach, I accept responsibility for that, and as I said last week, the first thing we have to do, and I can point fingers at players, I got to look in the mirror first and evaluate what I’m seeing, and whether or not I like what I did this season, and what I need to adjust to. So that will happen.

    Q: What’s gonna happen with the assistant coaches going forward and does there need to be an element of change after a season like this?
    A: Like I said earlier, there’s a flow chart when it comes to evaluation, and the assistant coaches are as committed a group as I’ve ever seen or been around. The work ethic and the commitment level is very high, but that’s a level of evaluation that we have to get to. You know there’s an owner, there’s a president, a manager, it gets all the way down to the head coach, and then we go there. So that’s coming. We have to look at everything first and we have to get to that level before we get anywhere.

    Q: Sometimes less is more, Cam’s got a lot of starts in the last couple seasons. In an ideal situation, with all due respect to Montoya who missed a couple opportunities to capitalize late in the year on some opportunities, would it be a beneficial scenario for there to be more competition there, and could you envision exploring maybe nontraditional markets to get goaltenders?
    A: Yeah we’re getting quite specific now on adjustments to the team. Healthy competitions, a good thing, not only in that position, but defensively, forwards, powerplay, penalty kill, you know accountability, and that’s likely a position we’ll look at. We feel that Talbs is a number one goaltender, and a very good one, and he’ll respond with a really good year. The pace that the game has played at, even over the last few years, I’m not sure that goalies can continue to play 75 games, it’s just happening so fast, and you know having somebody in there that can provide a high level of confidence within the team and the group, and steal you games is important. With that comment I’m not saying that we don’t have that, I think Al went in and played tremendously, especially when it was called out of the bullpen. He played better in those situations, in my opinion, than the starts, and a lot of times that’s a backups role. LB was thrown to the wolves early in the year when Cam got injured, that wasn’t the plan, it wasn’t to have him play extended amount of games, and take that pressure on that team, the team’s pressure, but that’s how it happens sometimes. A lot of teams are built that way, where they have a dominant starter, and a very young backup. Some of that is ramifications of the salary cap.

    Q: Would you have been in this position, out of the playoffs, if your special teams were just even average and not at the bottom of the league?
    A: I can’t answer that question. It obviously would have helped us immensely to be to be strong in both areas. What’s interesting, in kind of dissecting it, is our powerplay was fairly strong early in the year, and the penalty kill was really weak, and it kind of swung the other way. So we could never get the two of them together, even if we were average at the same time, it would have been nice. You know for all the failure on the penalty kill, it ended up being one of the top few in the league down the stretch, you know last twenty some games. The power play started out at an upper level, and then continued to fall, so there’s a lot of Jekyll and Hyde in our game this year. Road penalty kill, home penalty kill, we’ve gone through all of this throughout the year with most of you, the questions that you’ve asked me, and those are questions we need to dissect, and try and answer. Not that we haven’t been doing that for the past hundred and eighty five days.

  79. --hudson-- says:

    Part 3

    Q: Todd, you had a lot of younger players as wingers this season, guys who you hope maybe it would take a step, and obviously that doesn’t always work for everyone. Would you like, in an ideal world, more of a veteran at least one as a right winger, someone that’s got a consistent proven track record?
    A: You know we want to improve in every area. So can that improvement come through young players giving us more? We would like that. Can it be veteran players in-house that can provide that? We would like that. The other options are exterior additions that you don’t make two days after the season so we need to continue to discuss things there.

    Q: Todd, your younger players played well last year, but you know Benning, Caggiula, and Slepyshev this year. Is that just natural or were you counting on more from them and did you over extend things and think they’d be better this year than before?
    A: Well we perhaps raised the bar a little too quick for them. Although I think Drake outscored what he scored last year, I think Benny showed numeric increases in his production, point production and that type of stuff. Anton I believe produced at a higher level this year than he did last year, as far as point production. So when you talk about it from a production perspective their numbers were up. It’s the overall performance, how much can those individuals take on and accept, and you try and calculate that during the summer, and you expect them to take the steps. Some of them achieved it, some didn’t, that happens on every team. It’s when you have too few that don’t make the strides, you end up in the situation we’re in.

    Q: Todd, you drew the fewest power plays in the league this year. What to you is that an indicator of, because it wasn’t only the fewest power plays this year, I think it was among the fewest power plays in the last 10 years?
    A: Yeah it was it was a very low number. Nuge, and to Connor and Leon, were the primary players that drew penalties. You know so when you think about those three, yes they’re on the ice the most, they’re probably your most dynamic offensive players, they’ve got the puck more. Connor speed, Leon’s ability to hold on to pucks, and his size and strength, and the Nuge has a craftiness with the puck, a very high skill level, good hockey IQ. Those players always tend to draw more penalties than the others, that maybe aren’t quite at their level. You know so if they continue to draw what they draw, the rest of the group has to get more, and I think that comes from execution and pace, the same things that we talked about earlier. Playing less time in your zone, so coming out of your end, so there are some areas that we can get better on in that area.

    Q: Todd, with Connor McDavid in your lineup, is there an urgency to turn this thing around as quickly as possible, as opposed to maybe kind of building it back up?
    A: Well, we could have Matty in our lineup and that urgency would exist. So you know, yes we have one of, if not the best player in the world, in our lineup, and he’s had three years of his career here already. Two and a half, he was injured for a lot of that first one, but he’s not going anywhere, he’s going to play here for 15 years, we shouldn’t relax because we know that, we want to win, and we want to win now. 31 other teams are saying that as well. So the urgency exists all the time, the urgency we have right now is no different than the urgency we had last year when we lost in game seven. We want to win, we need to get better, so don’t think that it diminished at all after having a good run, or having a poor year. It is what it is, we take this seriously, and we’re urging.

    Q: Todd, how much of the problems were the top six? If you do have just top two lines, having to play a center on one of the wings, you didn’t really have regular people you could put on right wing, say Leon played there, but you didn’t have wingers per se who could play in your top six, and Milan, in Milan’s case he had an awful year by his standards, so that screwed things up.
    A: Well the traditional slotting of individuals, if you think of Connor, Leon, Nuge down the middle, their year’s production number wise, were close to what our expectations might be, less Nuge’s injury, Leon you know indifferent at times, but players have those ups and downs, and Connor’s illness. You know there could have been better numbers there, but for the most part those numbers, were pushed to what we thought they might be, less power play. You know that’s where that group failed, and we failed. The other ones, the ones that didn’t meet or exceed or establish new career highs like they did last year, a lot of them came from the wingers. That doesn’t mean they’re uncapable of doing it, it just means they didn’t get it done, they didn’t have the year that they needed to have, and we have to look at that.

    Q: Todd, is this script that you have here, you’ve had here the last three years, is it considerably different than what you had in San Jose given the experience that that group had?
    A: Well the San Jose group was much more experienced. Connor, Leon in San Jose were you know Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Joe Pavelski that combined for 3,000 games in the league now. You know they’re much further along, and it does, but lot have changed in the ten years that I started in San Jose to now. Those are… those would be considered older school players, they you know, they like it a specific way sometimes. The younger players are trained differently, but they still want to be held accountable, and I think we can be firmer. You might be asking the question the other way, were you too firm? I think that there’s some expectation that we can put our thumb on them even more, so and that may even come from them surprisingly.

    Q: Todd your goals against of course was a big concern this year. When you look at having all your numbers and you look at your defensive zone coverage, what is it? Moving the puck quick, having the ability to move the puck from your back end, or is it just mental errors being made by your defensive group, that led to such an increase in goals against this year?
    A: Well we’re talking about an 82-game period. It would be easier to narrow down to, hey in the last week or whatever, but so all of those things existed when your goals against go up like it did this year for us. All of those, too much time in the zone, poor execution, big individual mistakes, but our group has to commit to a higher level coming out of the offensive zone, and getting back to our zone, and accepting that you’re not always on offense, there’s a huge part of the game defending. And when we talk about defensive play, a lot of times you talk about Cam and the six defenseman, the other 12 are really important in defending, and we have to get better there.

    Good, yeah you know what you guys, thanks for your cooperation throughout the year. It’s never easy, you know and I don’t always like giving the injury report, but I know you got to ask the question right Matty? I thought you were gonna ask me, you know a little levity for the Bronco thing, give me an injury update there, and that wouldn’t have been a good thing. But your face is one thing I appreciate about you guys, I don’t always see all of you here every day, but I see you here and we get to create a relationship. I get to share, and you can read my body language, I read yours, I understand you got a tough job to do, there’s a lot of people that report, and are experts on the game and the team, and I don’t even know what they look like. I’d like to meet them, but I don’t know what they look like, and they don’t know what I’m going through or how I feel, but I give you guys credit. You’re here and you do your thing, so have a good summer.

    Q: {inaudible}
    A: Oh it is, I’m not as not as prepared… I’ll tell you I’m not as prepared to meet with you as I have been in the past, numbers wise, and you know I used the terms power play at the beginning of the year and the end of the year. I know it was better early… but a lot of times I’d be able to throw numbers out at you. I’m not near as prepared. I took my little book on the on the plane yesterday, and I thought oh you know what I’ll do some work. I didn’t even open it, I had no interest in doing that, my mind was somewhere else, and so yeah I’m that… it’s a good question. I’m not near as prepared to meet with you today as I would have been in the past, but it’s something that needed to be done, and I’m glad I went.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    The Canes are looking for toughness. Time to work some magic. Trade Lucic with 1 mil retention to Canes for Darling by the way of Vegas with 1 mil retention by them. And by out Darling. Dont know what Vegas would want for that million retention but time to get creative. Darling and Lucic retention would only cost us 2.3 mil per year except for the lockout year of 2020. Otherwise if they think we can screw Lucic back together then we can wait 2 more years and hope and most likely get a compliance buyout in 2020-21.
    Man that was one stupid contract.

  81. Moose says:

    LT,

    I love that you are touting Emil Bouchard for the 9th pick. Right shot, excellent passer, good defensively, but, he’s 92 years old. 🙂

  82. Rondo says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Do you know anything about Nils Lundkvist? Looks like he would be a good 2nd rd pick if available.

  83. Moose says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think a year of standing pat and adding vets on very short deals is in order.This team needs a recovery year and our prospect lists are pretty short and most are probably a couple years or more from being able to contribute.We need a few years of adding prospects and cap space growth.See if Lucic can recover some value and see how much to normal Sekera we can get next year.
    So what is going to happen.We’re going on a whale hunt.

    This. Hopefully not the last part.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: I truly do not understand why you keep using Schultz as an example of a coaching issue.

    The org. failed Schultz by playing him out of his depth and by putting the ‘Norris winner’ expectations on his shoulders.

    When Schultz went to Pittsburgh, he played on the bottom pairings, did he not? He didn’t have that in Edmonton because even though he was playing poorly, he was still better than the AHL D the Oilers had so they couldn’t play him in a lower pairing.

    This. Schultz hasn’t changed, he went to a team really deep up front with a coach who found a way to hide the 4 -6 D who weren’t strong 5v5 when Matta and or Letang we’re out. A lot easier to do when you can run Crosby Malkin Kessel and drive play for a large majority of the game.

    There are only a handful of two way play driving scoring D in the league and the Oilers aren’t getting one without gutting the team to the point it isn’t worth it, or at all.

    You have to draft them, especially when you are very cap heavy up front.

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: This. Schultz hasn’t changed, he went to a team really deep up front with a coach who found a way to hide the 4 -6 D who weren’t strong 5v5 when Matta and or Letang we’re out. A lot easier to do when you can run Crosby Malkin Kessel and drive play for a large majority of the game.

    There are only a handful of two way play driving scoring D in the league and the Oilers aren’t getting one without gutting the team to the point it isn’t worth it, or at all.

    You have to draft them, especially when you are very cap heavy up front.

    I will add ‘veteran elite forwards ‘. The Oilers have the elite part but they aren’t veterans, the answer is different for the Oilers.

    This is where a great GM shines. Who cares what anyone else did, what makes your team a winner? Let others copy you and probability fail because copying means you don’t know the answer.

  86. who says:

    Side: I truly do not understand why you keep using Schultz as an example of a coaching issue.

    The org. failed Schultz by playing him out of his depth and by putting the ‘Norris winner’ expectations on his shoulders.

    When Schultz went to Pittsburgh, he played on the bottom pairings, did he not? He didn’t have that in Edmonton because even though he was playing poorly, he was still better than the AHL D the Oilers had so they couldn’t play him in a lower pairing.

    Calling him a future Norris trophy winner is on the GM.
    But his usage is definitely on the coach. He could have played him on the third pairing with pp time and sheltered him a little. Even if he was the best RD available. I would rather see veterans who have reached their ceiling, like Fayne or Gryba, get thrown to the wolves. Why ruin a young dman in a lost season?
    This is why it’s so important for a coach and GM to be on the same page regarding player acquisitions and usage. I sometimes think it would be better for 1 guy to hold both jobs and have strong assistant coaches and assistant Gms to carry some of the workload.
    At least then the GM and coach would be on the same page. There are situations in the league right now where the relationship seems almost adversarial. Maybe Chia and Todd are in one of those situations.

  87. dustrock says:

    Thanks very much for the presser transcript, Hudson.

    Have to give respect to McLellan for facing the music, and for doing so 24 hours after going to Humboldt with Gulutzan. Nice thing to see.

    Meanwhile it’s radio silence from the Golden Boys.

  88. Confused says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Have you seen Linus Hultstrom this year?

  89. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    wiho,

    And forget about the big whale hunt for the mythical 2RD.

    2RDs are not myths.

    Most teams have one.

    Some teams even have 2 players who can play that role.

    True story.

    I wish you would use my whole post when you quote me. I try to explain my line of reasoning in each post.
    Mythical is a figure of speech cause it seems the Oilers are always looking for the same thing. But at what cost?
    Seems like kinda chasing your tail considering the team has traded away 2 of these guys in the last 3 years. Petry and Schulz.
    Would you trade Klefbom for Barrie straight up? Cause thats the deal I was thinking of when I wrote the post.
    Klefbom has the better contract, Barrie posts more offense. They both have issues in their own end. It also makes our defense smaller which may become an issue.

  90. hunter1909 says:

    I read somewhere that they might be holding a management clearout Sunday. Is there anything particular about next Sunday that is appropriate for this alleged news?

  91. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who,

    – fun fact : last year klef generated exactly the same amount of offence of Barrie

    – someone is gong to end up with a pretty good d in klef next year on a great contract

    – I hope that team is the oil.

  92. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    who,

    – fun fact : last year klef generated exactly the same amount of offence of Barrie

    – someone is gong to end up with a pretty good d in klef next year on a great contract

    – I hope that team is the oil.

    Fans of other teams hope their GM will improve the team in the offseason.

    Oiler fans hope and pray Chiarelli doesn’t fuck it up any worse than he already has.

  93. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    who,

    – fun fact : last year klef generated exactly the same amount of offence of Barrie

    – someone is gong to end up with a pretty good d in klef next year on a great contract

    – I hope that team is the oil.

    Yeah
    I agree

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Surely, this fellow will change your minds…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WREjMeJnoto

    Going through your bookmarks?

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: Yeah right, next you’ll be telling us that Sasquatch and the Loch Ness exist, too.

    Don’t be ridiculous, of course they’re myths.

    Ogopogo and unicorns on the other hand are real.
    –hudson–,

    Two things:

    1) thank you so much for doing this all season

    2) pretty slack at work eh?

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    The Canes are looking for toughness.Time to work some magic.Trade Lucic with 1 mil retention to Canes for Darling by the way of Vegas with 1 mil retention by them.And by out Darling.Dont know what Vegas would want for that million retention but time to get creative.Darling and Lucic retention would only cost us 2.3 mil per year except for the lockout year of 2020.Otherwise if they think we can screw Lucic back together then we can wait 2 more years and hope and most likely get a compliance buyout in 2020-21.
    Man that was one stupid contract.

    So is VAN and so is NYR and all 3 have cap space.

    Bidding war!!!!!

  97. Bobcaygeon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: So is VAN and so is NYR and all 3 have cap space.

    Bidding war!!!!!

    Word out of Washington is there looking to start Gurber, If that’s the case maybe a trade for Holtby for Lucic then swapping Talbot for a need on the roster…

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: I wish you would use my whole post when you quote me. I try to explain my line of reasoning in each post.
    Mythical is a figure of speech cause it seems the Oilers are always looking for the same thing. But at what cost?
    Seems like kinda chasing your tail considering the team has traded away 2 of these guys in the last 3 years. Petry and Schulz.
    Would you trade Klefbom for Barrie straight up? Cause thats the deal I was thinking of when I wrote the post.
    Klefbom has the better contract, Barrie posts more offense. They both have issues in their own end. It also makes our defense smaller which may become an issue.

    I posted a lot of stuff yesterday about Relative Teammate Goal share, specially in regards to RHD.

    There are many RHD who add value and many should be available for less that Klefbom.

    People get hung up on points and ignore overall contribution.

    A common derision of Barrie and others is “weak defensively” but they never provide data to back up that assertion.

    Nor do they weigh the offence contribution (or liability) vs defence contribution (or liability) so see *what is the net contribution of this player*

    My posit is to get players who are a net positive to goal share regardless of whether the main part of contribution is defensive or offensive.

    This is why I like players like Larsson, Tanev and Barrie equally.

    The team gains in terms of goal share when they are on the ice, and that’s the bottom line.

    Players who score less points cost less so that’s the inefficiency in the market to exploit.

    Also,

    Klefbom for Barrie is a net win by EDM, although with Klefbom having a wonky shoulder for his career he might be better defensively than he has shown at the NHL so far.

    Barrie is better net defence and net offence than Klefbom over the last 3 years and fills 2RD.

    Also,

    Not having a real NHL 2RD is the single biggest hole on the roster and needs to be addressed.

    No half measures, no shoe horning a LHD in there.

    EDM has the best player in hockey and a great 2C in Drai, the hard part is done and they need to fill the holes the holes that hold this team back.

  99. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t like a Klefbom for Barrie swap for the fact that Barrie only has 2 years left on his contract.

    I do like Barrie for the reasons you mention though

  100. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I posted a lot of stuff yesterday about Relative Teammate Goal share, specially in regards to RHD.

    There are many RHD who add value and many should be available for less that Klefbom.

    People get hung up on points and ignore overall contribution.

    A common derision of Barrie and othersis “weak defensively” but they never provide data to back up that assertion.

    Nor do they weigh the offence contribution (or liability)vs defence contribution (or liability) so see *what is the net contribution of this player*

    My posit is to get players who are a net positive to goal share regardless of whether the main part of contribution is defensive or offensive.

    This is why I like players like Larsson, Tanev and Barrie equally.

    The team gains in terms of goal share when they are on the ice, and that’s the bottom line.

    Players who score less points cost less so that’s the inefficiency in the market to exploit.

    Also,

    Klefbom for Barrie is a net win by EDM, although with Klefbom having a wonky shoulder for his career he might be better defensively than he has shown at the NHL so far.

    Barrie is better net defence and net offence than Klefbom over the last 3 years and fills 2RD.

    Also,

    Not having a real NHL 2RD is the single biggest hole on the roster and needs to be addressed.

    No half measures, no shoe horning a LHD in there.

    EDM has the best player in hockey and a great 2C in Drai, the hard part is done and they need to fill the holes the holes that hold this team back.

    Well IF you are right than maybe Edmonton should do the deal. I also think that Colorado may be a willing partner because of Makar and Timmins in there system. They seem deeper on the right side than on the left.
    My two big concerns are contract and size.
    Klefbom is signed for longer at less money. It really is a beauty contract if we get last springs Klefbom.
    And if we did this trade we are getting pretty tiny on the backend. I like small puck moving dmen. But I prefer big ones.

  101. pts2pndr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Wilde,

    – The Oil would love to get Faulk I bet.

    – His salary is $5.5, cap $4.8: Klef is cheaper as is Nurse on a Bridge

    – Nurse + for Faulk?I have no clue, but that is what you are talking about….Hurts

    * I mean Klef or Nurse is cheaper for Carolina, a spend-thrift team

    I am sure by everything I have observed a Nurse straight accross for Faulk is an over pay! Faulk is as good as he is going to be and Nurse is still on the upward trend! This would be IMO a very short sighted and backward move! Can you say “bleeding talent”!

  102. pts2pndr says:

    Richard S.S.:
    There will be a lot of Talent available this Offseason and for more reasons than we can imagine.Which #1 Stud Defenseman are available?One thing to remember this Offseason, when Connor McDavid is not on the Ice, this is not even a good AHL team.When Connor McDavid doesn’t score a point this team consistently loses.The Defense should back to normal health next year, so they’ll be good enough.Goaltending will good enough.Offense needs all the help it can get.

    Richard S.S.,

    This is correct given the current coaches deployment of his players! Given a coach with different deployment you might find this not be the case! Lack of success by the U.S. in Vietnam was caused by WW2 thinking not adjusting to gorilla warfare. Our coach has not adjusted to the new realities and the new wave thinking/motivation for millenials! Be willing to change or parish! Years of tradition unhampered by progress!

  103. leadfarmer says:

    What are the Stanley cup previews coming out of Canada? Have they given the Leafs the cup yet?

  104. Bling says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I posted a lot of stuff yesterday about Relative Teammate Goal share, specially in regards to RHD.

    There are many RHD who add value and many should be available for less that Klefbom.

    People get hung up on points and ignore overall contribution.

    A common derision of Barrie and othersis “weak defensively” but they never provide data to back up that assertion.

    Nor do they weigh the offence contribution (or liability)vs defence contribution (or liability) so see *what is the net contribution of this player*

    My posit is to get players who are a net positive to goal share regardless of whether the main part of contribution is defensive or offensive.

    This is why I like players like Larsson, Tanev and Barrie equally.

    The team gains in terms of goal share when they are on the ice, and that’s the bottom line.

    Players who score less points cost less so that’s the inefficiency in the market to exploit.

    Also,

    Klefbom for Barrie is a net win by EDM, although with Klefbom having a wonky shoulder for his career he might be better defensively than he has shown at the NHL so far.

    Barrie is better net defence and net offence than Klefbom over the last 3 years and fills 2RD.

    Also,

    Not having a real NHL 2RD is the single biggest hole on the roster and needs to be addressed.

    No half measures, no shoe horning a LHD in there.

    EDM has the best player in hockey and a great 2C in Drai, the hard part is done and they need to fill the holes the holes that hold this team back.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/WAR-2018-19/Overview?publish=yes

    Sean Tierny has published a WAR rating for all NHLers this season.

    Tyson Barrie is -1.37. That is really, really bad.

    Some other D, for reference:

    Eric Karlsson: 0.84
    PK Subban: 0.92
    Roman Josi: 1.34
    Dougie Hamilton: 0.95
    Ryan Ellis: 0.85
    Morgan Reilly: 0.76
    OEL: 1.55 (Number 4 overall rank)
    John Klingberg: 1.66 (Number 3 overall rank)
    Seth Jones: 0.90
    Ryan Suter: 1.84 (Number 1 overall rank)
    Tyler Spurgeon: 1.75 (Number 2 overall rank)

    Klefbom: -0.47
    Larsson: -0.16
    Russell: 0.27 (tops on Oilers)
    Benning: 0.25

    Some perspective on the numbers — Russell and Benning are just outside the top 60 in the entire NHL. By this metric alone, both would qualify as second pairing.

    Back to Barrie.

    Will he help on the PP? Sure. I think there is evidence, though, that he will hurt the team at evens. Klefbom went through some brutal stretches this season, and he still comes out significantly ahead of Barrie.

    I would also like to again point out that this is yet another metric that Matt Benning comes out looking (relatively) strong in.

    The D could see real improvement by betting on rebounds from Klef and Larsson (not unreasonable IMO, as both played through injury), AND by playing Benning as the second pairing RHD. Also, let’s keep Russell.

    For all the talk of Nurse’s development, he is still a negative WAR. Couple that with the slide in his game since January, and I would defer any talk of a long-term contract for now. JMO.

    I would probably lock Benning up right now, though.

    EDIT: The WAR data is actually from Corsica.hockey; Tierny put it into a really nice, customizable table.

  105. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: So is VAN and so is NYR and all 3 have cap space.

    Bidding war!!!!!

    To be fair, I’d spew off about toughness and grit if I was a GM too.

    It’s free.

    Like a media ‘get out of jail’ card, you don’t have to tip your hand.

    Then you ‘accidentally’ don’t actually make a trade/signing for intangibles, cite offer sheet threat on your biggest RFA that summer, then everyone forgets what you even said that summer once you start winning.

  106. Bling says:

    If we’re shopping the 9th overall pick, the guy I would want is Max Pacioretty.

    Proven scorer at evens, ridiculous volume shooter. If we can’t have balance, let’s just further tilt the hell out of the ice while McDavid is out there.

  107. Wilde says:

    Bling:
    If we’re shopping the 9th overall pick, the guy I would want is Max Pacioretty.

    Proven scorer at evens, ridiculous volume shooter. If we can’t have balance, let’s just further tilt the hell out of the ice while McDavid is out there.

    We have proof that Pacioretty can score at a first-line rate without a first line centre, so the play is probably to put him with Draisaitl, no? Then it’d be Nuge-McDavid and Pacioretty-Draisaitl, and you can take it easy on RW acquisition.

    I’d prefer the Oilers keep the pick, though. I don’t think the team gets good enough to merit giving away that kind of long-term asset. You get Pacioretty for one year, the #9 gets you a good player starting at draft+2 that you can keep cheap for 3 years and then a bridge for two more.

  108. HT Joe says:

    hunter1909: Fans of other teams hope their GM will improve the team in the offseason.

    Oiler fans hope and pray Chiarelli doesn’t fuck it up any worse than he already has.

    Thank you for putting perfectly in words what it means to be a fan of Katz’s Oilers. Just perfect.

  109. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bling: https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/vizhome/WAR-2018-19/Overview?publish=yes

    Sean Tierny has published a WAR rating for all NHLers this season.

    Tyson Barrie is -1.37. That is really, really bad.

    Some other D, for reference:

    Eric Karlsson: 0.84
    PK Subban: 0.92
    Roman Josi: 1.34
    Dougie Hamilton: 0.95
    Ryan Ellis: 0.85
    Morgan Reilly: 0.76
    OEL: 1.55 (Number 4 overall rank)
    John Klingberg: 1.66 (Number 3 overall rank)
    Seth Jones: 0.90
    Ryan Suter: 1.84 (Number 1 overall rank)
    Tyler Spurgeon: 1.75 (Number 2 overall rank)

    Klefbom: -0.47
    Larsson: -0.16
    Russell: 0.27 (tops on Oilers)
    Benning: 0.25

    Some perspective on the numbers — Russell and Benning are just outside the top 60 in the entire NHL. By this metric alone, both would qualify as second pairing.

    Back to Barrie.

    Will he help on the PP? Sure. I think there is evidence, though, that he will hurt the team at evens. Klefbom went through some brutal stretches this season, and he still comes out significantly ahead of Barrie.

    I would also like to again point out that this is yet another metric that Matt Benning comes out looking (relatively) strong in.

    The D could see real improvement by betting on rebounds from Klef and Larsson (not unreasonable IMO, as both played through injury), AND by playing Benning as the second pairing RHD. Also, let’s keep Russell.

    For all the talk of Nurse’s development, he is still a negative WAR. Couple that with the slide in his game since January, and I would defer any talk of a long-term contract for now. JMO.

    I would probably lock Benning up right now, though.

    This metric is overrating offensive contribution. Hockey is hard to make metrics for because it is so fluid as compared to the other NA major sports.

    Larsson and Sekera when healthy are the Oilers best as I see it. Based on overall consistent play against top comp.

  110. Munny says:

    –hudson–,

    *stick tap*

    Thanks for doing these, bro!

  111. Wilde says:

    You just can’t move the pick unless it’s for another guy on an ELC.

    The 2016 draft has 15 players already contributing on various levels, and I don’t think it was touted as a particularly standout draft in terms of depth.

    If the Oilers don’t start getting returns on a top ten pick by 2019-20, it’s because they probably picked the wrong guy. (Or maybe his coaching staff is shanking his icetime…)

    It’s not considered rushing the player anymore, this is the new NHL.

  112. --hudson-- says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Don’t be ridiculous, of course they’re myths.

    Ogopogo and unicorns on the other hand are real.
    –hudson–,

    Two things:

    1) thank you so much for doing this all season

    2) pretty slack at work eh?

    Munny:
    –hudson–,

    *stick tap*

    Thanks for doing these, bro!

    You’re most welcome, happy to contribute to the blog that has given me so much.

    It’s actually not a very time consuming process. After the Oilers post the video, YouTube auto generates the captions, then I download those captions. This takes seconds. Then I’ll watch the video and proofread the captions, seperate into Q&A, then post here.

    One thing we can say definitively with Todd is he’s a hard working coach, he puts in the hours, and formulat s his communication to the team. Now that’s not to say he’s doing all the right things, but he’s got an impressive work ethic.

  113. Bling says:

    Scungilli Slushy

    Check out the list. For the most part, the names at the top are the usual suspects.

    If offence is overrated by this metric, shouldn’t Barrie look good instead of bad? The problem is his dWAR significantly exceeds his oWAR.

    I agree that Larsson and Sekera were our best D last year. However, both have had significant struggles this year, mostly related to injury.

  114. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If winning now is the priority as it should be I’d make lower level deals using the cap and emerging players.

    Sakic is hard so there likely isn’t much there.

    Arizona is broke so that is where I’d start. Chayka likes numbers. OEL is the first target. But that would be for Russell or Sekera plus a non major roster player. Retaining if necessary.

    Second is Demers. Bear or Benning and not much else. Chayka’s math will love them and his budget will as well. Berglund is doing well as Swedish tells us against men, is young and also has size so there is pipeline here.

    The key is finding the other team’s player wants and filling it based on proper knowledge of your own talent. It’s never perfect but good GMs win this battle. This is what Sather did so well overall.

    A desired prospect and spare parts or lower pick for a better player and maybe the offer of cap. It’s what we see the good trading teams do.

    Along these lines. Right now other teams are doing it to Chiarelli. Maroon was fine but not a great contributor outside of McD. That’s nice but not a big feather in the cap so to speak.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bling:
    Scungilli Slushy

    Check out the list. For the most part, the names at the top are the usual suspects.

    If offence is overrated by this metric, shouldn’t Barrie look good instead of bad? The problem is his dWAR significantly exceeds his oWAR.

    I agree that Larsson and Sekera were our best D last year. However, both have had significant struggles this year, mostly related to injury.

    It’s such a tricky thing. I appreciated that you took the trouble to look it up and post it.

    My comment is based on that I value overall play the most. There are some players on the list that are good overall and some I don’t feel are. Not that they don’t contribute but need shelter. The Oilers currently can’t give shelter.

    The quiet contributors are the hardest to see, and I think the most valuable to a team that can repeatedly contend.

  116. hunter1909 says:

    Bling:
    If we’re shopping the 9th overall pick, the guy I would want is Max Pacioretty.

    Proven scorer at evens, ridiculous volume shooter. If we can’t have balance, let’s just further tilt the hell out of the ice while McDavid is out there.

    The Ducks would simply murder Max “Patio Ready” in any playoff series.

    Basically, it’s best to collect semi-washed up, over 30’s plugs AFTER the superstars have left town.

    Like the time Bernie Nichols and Vincent Damphousse replaced players like Messier and Anderson, etc.

  117. leadfarmer says:

    hunter1909,

    If you get Patches then you pretty much have to trade Nuge and then have you really accomplished much?

  118. russ99 says:

    godot10: It is impossible to find a better left wing for Connor McDavid with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins price point and remaining duration on his contract.McDavid Nugent-Hopkins and whoever will be a hundred goal line next year if all stay healthy.

    We’re looking at a 15 game stretch in garbage time, and Connor had good 15 game stretches with Maroon too.

    Connor was healthy for the first time all year, so how much of this is Connor playing well and how much really is Nuge? Not to mention, Nuge’s defensive game dropped off focusing on offense this year, and he’s just as needed vs. the toughs and could end up with a similar scoring total with some better wingers.

    I’m thinking this is half good chemistry with McLellan not blending for a good stretch and half the kind of hockey rush fans want to see.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Well IF you are right than maybe Edmonton should do the deal. I also think that Colorado may be a willing partner because of Makar and Timmins in there system. They seem deeper on the right side than on the left.
    My two big concerns are contract and size.
    Klefbom is signed for longer at less money. It really is a beauty contract if we get last springs Klefbom.
    And if we did this trade we are getting pretty tiny on the backend. I like small puck moving dmen. But I prefer big ones.

    Contract length is a reasonable concern but I think Barrie is very re-signable and won’t cost more (or much more) than he does now.

    I’m less concerned with size, just results.

    I like Barrie because of his results vs NHL competition playing in the Western Conference for the last 6 years.

    He won’t be playing different players than before if he plays for EDM.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    What are the Stanley cup previews coming out of Canada?Have they given the Leafs the cup yet?

    Here’s my main guess:

    TBY
    BOS
    CBJ
    PIT

    NSH
    WPG
    LAK
    SJS

    TBY
    CBJ

    NSH
    LAK

    NSH
    CBJ

    NSH

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bling,

    Can you explain every component of this WAR rating?

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: To be fair, I’d spew off about toughness and grit if I was a GM too.

    It’s free.

    Like a media ‘get out of jail’ card, you don’t have to tip your hand.

    Then you ‘accidentally’ don’t actually make a trade/signing for intangibles, cite offer sheet threat on your biggest RFA that summer, then everyone forgets what you even said that summer once you start winning.

    Smart.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    –hudson–,

    It’s actually not a very time consuming process. After the Oilers post the video, YouTube auto generates the captions, then I download those captions. This takes seconds. Then I’ll watch the video and proofread the captions, seperate into Q&A, then post here.

    You should have said that, “no its not busy, but I care so much I take 2 hours out of my day to do this for you all”

    Never let anyone see behind the curtain.

    Thank you still, that’s smart.

  124. Wilde says:

    russ99: We’re looking at a 15 game stretch in garbage time, and Connor had good 15 game stretches with Maroon too.

    Connor was healthy for the first time all year, so how much of this is Connor playing well and how much really is Nuge? Not to mention, Nuge’s defensive game dropped off focusing on offense this year, and he’s just as needed vs. the toughs and could end up with a similar scoring total with some better wingers.

    I’m thinking this is half good chemistry with McLellan not blending for a good stretch and half the kind of hockey rush fans want to see.

    ‘Garbage time’ doesn’t exist.

    The teams Edmonton played either needed the points or played like they did.

    Last year when the team was in a playoff race, the narrative was that you need to score ‘playoff goals’ from February on. Crash the net, etc because teams are tightening up. Which one is it?

    The most reasonable, likely conclusion is that there’s competitive, best league in the world level hockey being played every game.

    Also speaking of February on, that’s the time when McDavid started to devour the entire league’s goaltenders. He was straight fire well before 93 went up there.

    The problem with the line in the DZ is that the middle-man between them often isn’t there on time/can’t make a clean play as F2, which is why you need a better guy for that, my vote was 98.

  125. Rondo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    TB
    Wash
    Philly
    Bos

    Nash
    Winn
    Ana
    LA

  126. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    With a 9th or 10th overall pick I am totally comfortable with doing the Woodguy’ – 1st for Tanev trade.

    I’d prefer the VOR/Woodguy strategy.

    Trade the pick to NYR for their 2 late 1st Round picks, then trade one of these for Tanev.

  127. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Bling,

    Where did Trouba land and what was Nurse’s number?

    I am hearing he was used often as 1RHD, like I said yesterday some Jets fans were pretty high on him.

  128. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    hunter1909,

    If you get Patches then you pretty much have to trade Nuge and then have you really accomplished much?

    Unless RNH specifically causes problems, or else simply wants to go you do every reasonable thing imaginable to keep him.

    I compare him to the way everyone(but me) used to fawn over Hemsky. I personally couldn’t stand his skating around looking busy and doing jack in front of the net act. RNH on the other hand has a first class pedigree. He’s going to end up like Norm Ullman; playing for 20 years.

    Yeah but the Oilers prefer derailing the team, so we’re basically on Death Watch.

  129. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    hunter1909,

    If you get Patches then you pretty much have to trade Nuge and then have you really accomplished much?

    RNH plays great with 97…

  130. Bling says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The components of Corsica’s WAR are as follows:

    WAR RF = Shot Rates For
    WAR RA = Shot Rates Against
    WAR QF = Quality of Shots For
    WAR QA = Quality of Shots Against
    WAR PT = Penalties Taken
    WAR PD = Penalties Drawn
    WAR DZ/NZ/OZ = Zone Transitions

    Check out the second entry at the Corsica blog.

    http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/

  131. Bling says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Bling,

    Where did Trouba land and what was Nurse’s number?

    I am hearing he was used often as 1RHD, like I said yesterday some Jets fans were pretty high on him.

    Trouba: 0.50 (that is solidly within the top 60).
    Nurse: -0.14

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wow you got the Blue Jackets going far. I personally think they have to run their rookie top line center too hard to get that far

  133. Confused says:

    Bling,

    No reason why WAR is worse than anything else, but quality is obviously not understood.

    Many things we are told are facts are in fact highly debatable.

    According to many peoples favorite NST, Carolina are the best CF% team!

  134. Confused says:

    Jets with the highest PDO, Pens with the lowest.

  135. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Contract length is a reasonable concern but I think Barrie is very re-signable and won’t cost more (or much more) than he does now.

    I’m less concerned with size, just results.

    I like Barrie because of his results vs NHL competition playing in the Western Conference for the last 6 years.

    He won’t be playing different players than before if he plays for EDM.

    Even if he resigns for the same money is he worth 1.5 million more than Klefbom? Not necessarily arguing, just thinking out loud.
    I like a fast skilled team. Chia definitely swung the pendulum too far to the heavy hockey side. But are we in danger of swinging it too far the other way? If you flip Klefbom for Barrie it probably leaves us with the smallest dcore in the league. Would that defense get exploited by some of the Western Conference teams? We already saw the Sekera/Russell pairing lose some effectiveness in last years playoffs

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    €√¥£€^$: I’d prefer the VOR/Woodguy strategy.

    Trade the pick to NYR for their 2 late 1st Round picks, then trade one of these for Tanev.

    I’d do that.

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bling:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The components of Corsica’s WAR are as follows:

    WAR RF = Shot Rates For
    WAR RA = Shot Rates Against
    WAR QF = Quality of Shots For
    WAR QA = Quality of Shots Against
    WAR PT = Penalties Taken
    WAR PD = Penalties Drawn
    WAR DZ/NZ/OZ = Zone Transitions

    Check out the second entry at the Corsica blog.

    http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/

    Thanks for that.

    I think using shots and even shot location over-values volume.

    You can see that in some of the results of his metric imo.

    Pretty sure Manny weights last season at 50%, 2 seasons before at 30% and 3 seasons at 20%, which I think is smart.

    But when using samples of that size he should use more goal data.

    I understand not using one or even 2 years of goal data, but 3 is a good sample.

    Shot data doesn’t catch the nuance of scoring or preventing goals.

    Pretty sure that DTMAH incorporated some form of individual shooting skill into his xGF% and claimed it was a better predictor. I believe that, but don’t know what data and how he weights it into his GAR metric.

    Shot volume data catches a huge part of goal scoring, that being volume and location, but by definition it equally rates each shooter and defender and we know that’s not true.

    Pre-puck movement is also very important on the probability of scoring, and we don’t have that yet either, and that certainly changes with each player and sets of players.

    In a large sample of players it doesn’t matter that you don’t have that nuance as you are just looking for general “truths”, but in individual analysis it misses a lot imo.

    When we have puck movement data and player data I think the focus on what individuals do to prevent and create goals will be more understood.

    Until then I value shot data in small samples, but not as much as goals in larger ones when it comes to analyzing individual data.

    I don’t know where to draw the line, I think its at 2500 minutes or so.

    Also,

    Manny’s stuff doesn’t take QoC into account very well from my understanding and that’s makes a difference as well.

  138. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kassian and a pick for Faulk. And I’m only half joking. Should make their owner happy.

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wow you got the Blue Jackets going far.I personally think they have to run their rookie top line center too hard to get that far

    I bet on goalies.

    If ANA didn’t lose Fowler I’d bet on ANA Because Gibson

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Even if he resigns for the same money is he worth 1.5 million more than Klefbom? Not necessarily arguing, just thinking out loud.
    I like a fast skilled team. Chia definitely swung the pendulum too far to the heavy hockey side. But are we in danger of swinging it too far the other way?If you flip Klefbom for Barrie it probably leaves us with the smallest dcore in the league. Would that defense get exploited by some of the Western Conference teams? We already saw the Sekera/Russellpairing lose some effectiveness in last years playoffs

    PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

    Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

    Don’t look at size, look at results.

  141. kr55 says:

    It really is a shame that the players didn’t listen to McLellan that they weren’t really that good, and if they fail, it’ll be because they think they are too good. McLellan even took time over the summer to personally call and remind them that they’re not that good, and they just didn’t listen. Even after they beat the Flames in that 1st game and got reminded that they’re not as good as people say, they still refused to listen. Hopefully they go into next season realizing finally that they’re not that good and the results will come again. McLellan should send them home with a video that they have to watch once a day of McLellan telling them they are not a beautiful or unique snowflake, they are made of the same decaying organic matter as everything else, we’re all part of the same compost heap.

  142. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    You just can’t move the pick unless it’s for another guy on an ELC.

    The 2016 draft has 15 players already contributing on various levels, and I don’t think it was touted as a particularly standout draft in terms of depth.

    If the Oilers don’t start getting returns on a top ten pick by 2019-20, it’s because they probably picked the wrong guy. (Or maybe his coaching staff is shanking his icetime…)

    It’s not considered rushing the player anymore, this is the new NHL.

    I respect what you’re saying here, but I don’t agree. I think 2016 will go down as a very strong draft. Not as good as 2015, but I think much better than 2017. I think you’re right in that more young players are making it to the NHL than before, but it’s still the minority. I count 14 players from the 2015 first round as having an impact in the NHL right now in draft +3.

  143. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Wilde,

    Valeri Nichushkin

  144. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’d do that.

    Vancouver wouldn’t
    They willll want a pick and a blue chip prospect in return.

  145. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965,

    The point is basically there are at least 10 players that are or have the ability to be net positive contributors at the NHL level in their draft+2.

    So if you have one of the first 10 picks, you /should/ be getting one of those. That’s how the risk of trading the asset presents itself naturally

  146. rickithebear says:

    Cassandra:
    You fail to understand that Amy team measure is not an approach I take due to 3 major factors.
    1. Possible permutations of a shift.
    3F – 2D – 1G
    12 x 11 x10 x 6 x 5 x 2 = 79,200 permutations.
    Which is limited by the 1st for 4th line structure of coach
    1st- 4th comp ability of players.

    2.the need to look at mechanism affects of the 3 units and WoWY of players.

    3. Repeatability of base performance GF and GA.
    VGK had
    10 gm of 5+ ga resulting in 10 losses and 63ga
    228ga – 63ga = 165ga
    11gm of 4ga resulting in 5w and 6 L and 44 ga
    165 – 44 = 121ga
    5 wins and 16L you look at were the flaws are in each game.

    Other 61 gm 46w and 15L
    Yielding 121/61. = 1.98 ga per gm
    An elite repeatability rate.
    61/82 = 77.4% of games.

    Team break down is folly.
    Unit & player binary mechanism and density performance.
    Continued baseline repeatability by unit and player
    Win and loss affect by unit and players and coaching.

  147. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

    Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

    Don’t look at size, look at results.

    Look at the ability to defend the HD area.
    PIT won cause they collapsed on HD area and pressed natural lanes.
    And a goalie with the 2nd best HD performance in playoffs last 20 years.
    Plus 3top 40 HD dmen.
    They are down to 1.

    NSH is one of 2 HD dmen factories.
    The other being NJD.

  148. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Kassian and a pick for Faulk. And I’m only half joking.Should make their owner happy.

    Faulk is a rover not a dman.

  149. rickithebear says:

    Do you know why they are called defencemen?
    Do you know why they say you build winners from back out?

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    kr55:
    It really is a shame that the players didn’t listen to McLellan that they weren’t really that good, and if they fail, it’ll be because they think they are too good.McLellan even took time over the summer to personally call and remind them that they’re not that good, and they just didn’t listen.Even after they beat the Flames in that 1st game and got reminded that they’re not as good as people say, they still refused to listen.Hopefully they go into next season realizing finally that they’re not that good and the results will come again.McLellan should send them home with a video that they have to watch once a day of McLellan telling them they are not a beautiful or unique snowflake, they are made of the same decaying organic matter as everything else, we’re all part of the same compost heap.

    Enjoy Arbys

  151. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

    Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

    Don’t look at size, look at results.

    & who,

    I agree with this. If they’re in the same league, just look at results. For prospects, you may want to look at size more when evaluating because you don’t know how much it will affect the results when they move up a level or two and play against fully grown professional men. If he’s getting results at the NHL level, then he’s getting results at the NHL level. The other thing to cinsider regarding size, is that if a smaller player is taking a lot of abuse and ending up injured a lot, but big players get hurt a lot sometimes too (Klefbom).

  152. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I bet on goalies.

    If ANA didn’t lose Fowler I’d bet on ANA Because Gibson

    Bob will have to stand on his head to get them that far. He can definitely do it, but anything short of perfection they are gone

  153. RedNed says:

    –hudson–,

    Thanks for the transcript post! I went and watched the video afterwards. Having not seen Coach for a bit over a month (life too busy, sigh) I’d say he looks gaunt, probably from stress?

    And I really really hope both RNH and Nurse remain Oilers. They are both great to watch as they develop!

  154. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: PIT had the one of the smallest Dcrops running for the past two years.

    Ellis is one of the most effective NHL Dmen in the league.

    Don’t look at size, look at results.

    Trying to remember Pittsburgs defense last spring. I know Hainsey, Matta and Cole were all big guys. Did they have Daley as well?
    The only smaller guys were Letang and Schulz.
    The Oilers would have Barrie, Sekera, Russell, Benning and possibly Bear. None of these guys are overly big and the only one who plays physical is Benning. And he gets the crap pounded out of him some nights.
    There are no Ryan Ellis’s in this group. And the guys surrounding Ellis in Nashville are mostly bigger bodies. Ekholm, Subban, Emelin, Irwin, etc. I’m guessing even Josi is bigger than most of the Oilers blueline.

  155. sliderule says:

    Maksimov with a nice skating deflection to win the game in overtime for ice dogs.

    Positives for Kiril
    Skating is good and getting better
    Very god shot and release of same
    Nice size 6-2 and looks thick.
    Aggressive and penalty kills
    Best late rounder since Reider

    Negatives
    Russian connections dont seem to mesh with oiler big minds
    Remember what happened with Reider

  156. Jaxon says:

    russ99: We’re looking at a 15 game stretch in garbage time, and Connor had good 15 game stretches with Maroon too.

    Connor was healthy for the first time all year, so how much of this is Connor playing well and how much really is Nuge? Not to mention, Nuge’s defensive game dropped off focusing on offense this year, and he’s just as needed vs. the toughs and could end up with a similar scoring total with some better wingers.

    I’m thinking this is half good chemistry with McLellan not blending for a good stretch and half the kind of hockey rush fans want to see.

    Nugent-Hopkins was also having good production prior to joining McDavid as #2C with not very good wingers. I think a full year or at least a long stretch at the start of next season with McDavid to help them find more chemistry would be a very good thing. Nuge can always go back to C and it provides TMac another tool in his line deployment.

    This is also why I think they should draft Veleno in the #9,#10,#11 spot if that’s where they land. The Oilers have decent wing prospects (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Maksimov, Safin) in the system, but not much beyond their top 3 C (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins). If TMac wants to load up a line when trailing, it will deplete his C depth. It would be great to have another skilled C like Veleno. You can always move Veleno to a wing, but it usually doesn’t work the other way around. Of course, if they win the lottery they pick Dahlin and trade a LHD for a RHD. If they draft #2 or #3, I think they should pick Svechnikov over Zadina. That is purely on my gut bias. From watching highlight reels of the top prospects I feel like Zadina may be this year’s Yakupov/Daigle/Filatov/Stefan. I feel he plays on the periphery more and has something in his style that reminds me of Yak. At #12, I’d gamble on Merkley. His potential upside is too big to ignore. Pronman has a great article about him at The Athletic. It’s an eye-opener about his potential weighed against any perceived issues. I’d pick him over the other two RHD that may be available at #12. Dobson may have skating issues (Robinson at Dodders: “A smooth skater but will want to add more speed as he matures.” And Wilde hasn’t produced much offense in the USHL where he should be able to put up better numbers and the Oilers need another offensive RHD, not another Larsson. Woah, I got way off track, haha.

  157. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I am going to laugh if Caps start Holtby though.

  158. OilClog says:

    It’s a shame Todd didn’t call himself, get over yourself you’re not that good Todd.

    Nope! It’s all you players! If only they lost to Calgary in game 1! They would of realized!

    Seriously, this is a head coach lol.

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Bob will have to stand on his head to get them that far.He can definitely do it, but anything short of perfection they are gone

    They were one of 6 teams in the NHL to have a positive goal differential for all 4 lines.

    They’re better than they seem.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Trying to remember Pittsburgs defense last spring. I know Hainsey, Matta and Cole were all big guys. Did they have Daley as well?
    The only smaller guys were Letang and Schulz.
    The Oilers would have Barrie, Sekera, Russell, Benning and possibly Bear. None of these guys are overly big and the only one who plays physical is Benning. And he gets the crap pounded out of him some nights.
    There are no RyanEllis’s in this group. And the guys surrounding Ellis in Nashville are mostly bigger bodies. Ekholm, Subban, Emelin, Irwin, etc. I’m guessing even Josi is bigger than most of the Oilers blueline.

    The only big Dman in NSH is Ekholm at 6’4″ 215
    Emelin 6’2 218
    Josi 6’1 200
    Irwin 6’10 207
    Subban 6’0 210

    Nurse 6’4 221
    Klefbom 6’3 215
    Larsson 6’3 210
    Sekera 6’0 200

    EDM’s Dcorps is bigger than NSH

    You’re really hung up on size and EDM’s top 3 are among the biggest in the NHL.

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I am going to laugh if Caps start Holtby though.

    I bloody well hope they do.

    If they start Grubauer they probably beat CBJ.

  162. Ribs says:

    hunter1909:
    I read somewhere that they might be holding a management clearout Sunday. Is there anything particular about next Sunday that isappropriate for this alleged news?

    It’ll be Go Fly A Kite Day?

  163. sliderule says:

    Jaxon: Nugent-Hopkins was also having good production prior to joining McDavid as #2C with not very good wingers. I think a full year or at least a long stretch at the start of next season with McDavid to help them find more chemistry would be a very good thing. Nuge can always go back to C and it provides TMac another tool in his line deployment.

    This is also why I think they should draft Veleno in the #9,#10,#11 spot if that’s where they land. The Oilers have decent wing prospects (Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Maksimov, Safin) in the system, but not much beyond their top 3 C (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins). If TMac wants to load up a line when trailing, it will deplete his C depth. It would be great to have another skilled C like Veleno. You can always move Veleno to a wing, but it usually doesn’t work the other way around. Of course, if they win the lottery they pick Dahlin and trade a LHD for a RHD. If they draft #2 or #3, I think they should pick Svechnikov over Zadina. That is purely on my gut bias. From watching highlight reels of the top prospects I feel like Zadina may be this year’s Yakupov/Daigle/Filatov/Stefan. I feel he plays on the periphery more and has something in his style that reminds me of Yak. At #12, I’d gamble on Merkley. His potential upside is too big to ignore. Pronman has a great article about him at The Athletic. It’s an eye-opener about his potential weighed against any perceived issues. I’d pick him over the other two RHD that may be available at #12. Dobson may have skating issues (Robinson at Dodders: “A smooth skater but will want to add more speed as he matures.” And Wilde hasn’t produced much offense in the USHL where he should be able to put up better numbers and the Oilers need another offensive RHD, not another Larsson. Woah, I got way off track, haha.

    If Dobson has speed issues it sure didn’t show at top prospect testing.
    He was fastest in sprints both forward and backwards against all players including forwards

    This is problem with so called scouts using eyes rather than testing.

  164. CaptainObvious says:

    kr55,

    The Oilers are team that beleive they are as good as their best game…….they will take a big step forward when they learn that they are ONLY as good as their worst game.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca