Armed Forces

My Dad was born in 1912, was 18 when the dirty 30’s hit and enlisted for World War Two age 27. He grew up poor (always said it took six years to get word of the depression to Radisson, and even then no one noticed) and he worked pretty much every day of his life. He would always say he didn’t see a banana until he was 14, couldn’t remember how old when he actually got to eat one. Based on how much he loved bananas, I expect at least part of that story is true. Dad made up so much crap (he said we changed our name because our Dutch name was Van Dumb!) we could never believe/not believe.

He hunted for bargains, even when we had a little money. I remember when I was maybe 10 years old, we went to see a man named Alex Simchuk at the hospital (he was dying of cancer). My Dad brought him grapes, and Alex was so happy (he’d been craving them). Dad enjoyed that, then proceeded to tell Alex he’d paid more for the grapes than he paid for the hat he was wearing. Dad thought the hat was a better deal. My Mom told my Dad (something like) no one cared and why couldn’t he for once say something normal (she always said that to him). I played with my Hot Wheels and my brother (he was four years older) tried to get the attention of the pretty nurses. Funny what you remember.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

New translations from Vollman mean new Oilers numbers. I’ll wait until next week to run the complete totals, but here are the top 10 forwards by NHLE. It gives us a nice stepping off point for the idea of bargains.

  • Yamamoto and Maksimov lead the teenage brigade, with Marody and Hebig posting the best amateur numbers from the 20+ group.
  • Ty Rattie is hurtling toward free agency but could be a bargain deal next season. Even if he played 30 games on the McDavid line and the rest as a depth player, it’s possible he could post 10+ goals. That would be real value for $800,000.
  • Benson, Safin and McPhee are players worth watching, you’d like to see more offense next season.

Marody looks good so far (2gp, 1-1-2) and the club is playing him at center. It’s too soon to know, but perhaps Marody can push for an NHL job at some point next season. If he can be productive, that trade (2019 third-round pick) would represent great bargain hunting and solid value. Oilers need to make this kind of move several more times over the summer.

This is a must read. Spector lays out what looks like an attempted (or ongoing attempt at) coup d’état in the halls of the Edmonton Oilers. The avail by Bob Nicholson yesterday suggests to me that there is something going on, if things were right the coach then general manager speak, followed by silencio. Yesterday’s muddle is a tell. I think Spector does a great job breaking things down and if you want my guess as to who the king maker is, well, I’ll bet Kevin Lowe. Lowe would have had to be onboard with replacing MacTavish with PC in 2015 spring and I expect his influence still trumps the late comers, ne’er-do-wells, storm door salesmen and the red wine mafia. If I’m right, this will be at least twice Lowe put what may be perceived as the ‘greater good’ in front of his boys on the bus brethren. I’m not getting into that argument today, beyond stating if you’re going to replace the general manager or the coach a real search must be conducted and winning the 1984 Stanley has jack diddly to do with being an NHL general manager in 2018.

BARGAINS

It’s going to be the theme of summer, along with trading that first-round selection. Oilers need to be looking to the AHL for help (the best minor league wingers at 20, in terms of shots, were Daniel Sprong of the Penguins and Mathieu Joseph of the Lightning) and possibly Europe too. The procurement this summer has limitations:

  • $1 million or less.
  • no assets out.

It needs to be a Steve Staios summer in Edmonton. The team needs value contracts applied to 20-goal scorers and backup goalies who could play 30 games capably. It can be done. The 1987 Montreal Expos are such a team. Half of their pitching staff came from the pile of broken arms, they had two third basemen and two first basemen as infield regulars, and their Hall of Fame outfielder didn’t play until May. Young, old, recently retired, playing in Russia or Switzerland. Somewhere out there are solutions and the Oilers need to find them in a quick damned hurry.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun Friday show, maybe we’ll pour some red wine to celebrate the coming warmth of the sun. At 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Oilers front office, playoffs.
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. Is this the year of the Raptors?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Is keeping Chiarelli the correct call?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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243 Responses to "Armed Forces"

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  1. rickithebear says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Chiarelli has built a deeper team than either MacT or Lowe ever did. Lowe blew high end assets as well. Lowe did put together the 06 run team but couldn’t keep it together and didn’t do well after. I think he was fortunate in 06 more than good.

    I like the player types that Chiarelli wants, but they are rare and that’s the problem. Physical talented good skating aggressive players don’t abound. And cost the moon. So you should take talent in lieu.

    05-06 Lowe
    1. Elite HD sys coach
    MacT hellyeah
    2. Top 10 HD save goalie
    Rolloson Hell yeah
    Markennen top 30
    3. 3 + 60 HD Dmen
    Spacek top5
    Pronger top 10
    Smith top 25
    Staios Top 30
    Greene top 40
    Tarnstrom top 60
    4. Top 6 team top 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
    Smith 1.57 125 fwd
    Horcoff 1.32
    Stoll 1.27
    Hemskey 1.25
    Samsanov 1.18
    Torres 1.11
    5. Above avg bott 6 (9 evg)
    Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
    6. + ve goal diff special teams.

    We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

  2. Spooky Lynx says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Lowe blew high end assets as well. Lowe did put together the 06 run team but couldn’t keep it together and didn’t do well after.

    To be fair to KLowe (which is something I typically don’t endorse) the biggest piece of the 06 puzzle being traded was no fault of anyone but the player himself. Losing a player like Pronger in the way the Oil did would create a massive vacuum for any hockey team, it’s just too bad that it happened on the team we cheer for.

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear: 05-06 Lowe
    1. Elite HD sys coach
    MacT hellyeah
    2. Top 10 HD save goalie
    Rolloson Hell yeah
    Markennen top 30
    3. 3 +60 HD Dmen
    Spacek top5
    Pronger top 10
    Smith top 25
    Staios Top 30
    Greene top 40
    Tarnstrom top 60
    4. Top 6 teamtop 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
    Smith 1.57 125 fwd
    Horcoff 1.32
    Stoll 1.27
    Hemskey 1.25
    Samsanov 1.18
    Torres 1.11
    5. Above avg bott 6(9 evg)
    Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
    6. + ve goal diff special teams.

    We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

    Why do you want to hurt me?

  4. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hall’s Relative Goal Share (on/off) over his career:

    10/11 +2.0
    11/12 +9.0
    13 +10.6
    13/14 +8.7
    14/15 +16.7
    15/16 +11.8
    16/17 +10.7
    17/18 +13.2

    His year with St. Ralph (13) is his 5th best in terms of how he out performs the rest of the team.

    His relative stats are depressed relatively because Krueger is a better coach than Renney, Eakins, and McLellan, and was able to do far more with far less with the rest of the roster (plus good luck)…but Krueger has always seemed to carry around a lucky horseshoe. But then one has to be good to be lucky.

  5. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I appreciate the way you asked.

    “Not an answer monkey” is always good.

    On my phone, but will look when I can.

    No worries mate.

  6. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear: 05-06 Lowe
    1. Elite HD sys coach
    MacT hellyeah
    2. Top 10 HD save goalie
    Rolloson Hell yeah
    Markennen top 30
    3. 3 +60 HD Dmen
    Spacek top5
    Pronger top 10
    Smith top 25
    Staios Top 30
    Greene top 40
    Tarnstrom top 60
    4. Top 6 teamtop 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
    Smith 1.57 125 fwd
    Horcoff 1.32
    Stoll 1.27
    Hemskey 1.25
    Samsanov 1.18
    Torres 1.11
    5. Above avg bott 6(9 evg)
    Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
    6. + ve goal diff special teams.

    We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

    I still don’t want to think about it.

  7. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Spooky Lynx: To be fair to KLowe (which is something I typically don’t endorse) the biggest piece of the 06 puzzle being traded was no fault of anyone but the player himself. Losing a player like Pronger in the way the Oil did would create a massive vacuum for any hockey team, it’s just too bad that it happened on the team we cheer for.

    True. But he lost a lot of others good players as well and traded his best D for a guy with a chronic injury.

  8. Spooky Lynx says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Yup. Your original point is fair, he certainly could have done a better job than he did.

  9. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hey Woodguy
    I know you aren’t answer monkey but being answer donkey is a bit much. Get the lead out mate! 🤪

  10. hunter1909 says:

    Hilariously the OBC’s main pitch has always been that the more of them there are the more brains in the room but sadly after 15 seasons of learning on the job(a thing they themselves don’t offer to the prospects) it appears that the more of them there are, the dumber the decision making; and the more hopeless the future looks insofar as winning any cups.

    Gretzky can knock back a bottle of brandy by 11AM and he’s still the perfect ambassador.

    As fans, we’re gone the full circle. Now the new hires will be kept on despite clear failure, the fans can predictably hang themselves in frustration.

    Myself, I always cheered for winning teams until the Lowe+MacT Oilers. Drank the kool-aid, always happy to predict 100 points as a baseline. Now, with Chiarelli+McLellan back to non-achieve… except not the cup. That’s officially been designated a non-issue.

    Who knows what brings next season? Playoffs, a round or two. Crippling salary cap issues – meaning the next player Oilers lose will be someone like Darnell Nurse. We know the AHL team is a disaster. They never even make the playoffs. The players come up to the NHL and haven’t got a clue. It’s mind-boggling compared to the Philadelphia Flyers who are a factory for excellent NHL prospects who flourish.

  11. hunter1909 says:

    Bandwagon fan: Either Jets or Preds making the finals.

  12. Todd Macallan says:

    Kadri gets 3 games. Good, glad. Could not happen to a nicer guy. Great player, worse person.

  13. godot10 says:

    The Leafs have to start dealing with the cap this summer. Ditto Jets. We get to observe if either of those management teams execute the cap highwire better.

    My impression/speculation/gut-tells-me is that the McLellan camp is Spector’s main source.

  14. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    The Leafs have to start dealing with the cap this summer.Ditto Jets.We get to observe if either of those management teams execute the cap highwire better.

    My impression/speculation/gut-tells-me is that the McLellan camp is Spector’s main source.

    That will be interesting for sure and probably hurt.

    As for the summits, it might be awkward all around. I’m sure teams that keep former stars around run into issues with their personal choices, but I doubt that they have a voice in things which would be less complicated.

    These young players have a chance at greatness. The less distractions the better.

  15. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Kadri gets 3 games. Good, glad. Could not happen to a nicer guy. Great player, worse person.

    Looks like the up and comer teams get the discipline.

  16. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    The Leafs have to start dealing with the cap this summer.Ditto Jets.We get to observe if either of those management teams execute the cap highwire better.

    My impression/speculation/gut-tells-me is that the McLellan camp is Spector’s main source.

    As talk around here often mentioned Connor’s ELC and wasting the window the Leafs over the next two seasons will have to offload salary and will lose a lot of depth. Matthew’s ELC wasted!

  17. Alpine says:

    OmJo:
    Alpine,

    I shared a screenshot of this on Twitter. Hope you don’t mind – if you do I’ll definitely delete the tweet. If you have Twitter I can post it again and give you direct credit.

    No problem! Go right ahead. I appreciate that you found my ramblings worth sharing haha.

  18. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra:
    The biggest thing, to my eye, from Chiarelli’s availability was more evidence of his inability or unwillingness to learn from his mistakes.

    To wit, he specifically mentioned how he thought the offense from wingers was adequate and, in any case, wingers are easy to find.

    This is the false heuristic that led to the Taylor Hall trade.

    Chiarelli thinks that wingers are inherently less valuable than other positions.There is no rational or empirical reason for thinking this.Therefore we can conclude with reasonable certainty that a)Chiarelli believes things that are false because he doesn’t understand the issues, and b) Chiarelli is going to continue making mistakes because he uses the wrong criteria for evaluating players.

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers.There is no evidence that they are.There is no reason to believe that they are.

    In this vein, we can start developing simple criteria for evaluating coaches and general managers.

    For general managers it would be something like:

    1) If you trade first round picks like they are an infinite resource you cannot be my general manager.
    2) If you think of your team in terms of needs rather than talent then you cannot be my general manager.Never trade talent for need.

    For coaches it would be something like:

    1) If your first unit PP has two defensemen on it, I seriously question your judgement.
    2) If you play Milan Lucic more than 10 minutes a night, I seriously question your judgement.
    3) If you insist that young players earn their minutes while gifting minutes to veterans who can’t play, I seriously question your judgement.

    Chiarelli did not say star wingers were easier to find! Given that the average NHL roster has 14 forwards of which nine or ten are wingers the ratio of either 9-5 or 10-4 would indicate strictly by the numbers a winger would be easier to acquire! Given that Chiarelli has been in the business of player aquisition for a number of years I would tend to take his word over your protestation! In addition the basic law of supply and demand that the price to acquire a center via trade would be higher. Once again pre and simple logic. If aquiring a first or second line center is so easy why is there mot more movement of centers? As fans we have no idea of what players are available or for the most part what other GM’s are asking in return. In all honesty we don’t know what we don’t know! You supesition is just that supesition!

  19. Munny says:

    Spector would know Herbers from back in the Uni day. Not that “Red Wine Summits” need insider info to observe. And not saying Herbers is the guy either… he played for that other famous Broncos team and to my knowledge has never said a word on it.

  20. Munny says:

    On paper that Kings D looks thinner than a communion wafer… and likely will need more prayers.

  21. Munny says:

    That man is not a soprano, no sir.

  22. Munny says:

    They never want you to know what time it is in Vegas.

  23. Munny says:

    First blood Vegas, on the powerplay, and a Jim dandy one it was.

  24. Spooky Lynx says:

    This VGK/LAK series has been fabulous hockey. My Gord, do I ever love the playoffs.

  25. Wayne Kenov says:

    DD looked pretty good tonight. Shame we pissed him away too.

  26. Mike Wazowski says:

    rickithebear: 05-06 Lowe
    1. Elite HD sys coach
    MacT hellyeah
    2. Top 10 HD save goalie
    Rolloson Hell yeah
    Markennen top 30
    3. 3 +60 HD Dmen
    Spacek top5
    Pronger top 10
    Smith top 25
    Staios Top 30
    Greene top 40
    Tarnstrom top 60
    4. Top 6 teamtop 125 fwds 05-06 (19g 47p)
    Smith 1.57 125 fwd
    Horcoff 1.32
    Stoll 1.27
    Hemskey 1.25
    Samsanov 1.18
    Torres 1.11
    5. Above avg bott 6(9 evg)
    Pisani 13 Evp Top 100
    6. + ve goal diff special teams.

    We win series in 4-5 games with Rolosson

    This assumes Roloson could maintain his near MVP level of play. Based on the goals he gave up in game 1 and watching his play for 3 more seasons afterwards, my personal opinion is that we would have seen a downturn in his quality of play for a few games. He could also have bounced back the next game.

    Woodguy is right though, the loss still stings.

  27. Professor Q says:

    godot10: The original Neil Diamond version is better!-).When Neil Diamond was cool, before he was uncool, before he was cool again.

    I don’t even know who Neil Diamond is.

  28. Professor Q says:

    Wayne Kenov:
    DD looked pretty good tonight. Shame we pissed him away too.

    Don’t feel too badly. Nashville did, too.

  29. Professor Q says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Kadri gets 3 games. Good, glad. Could not happen to a nicer guy. Great player, worse person.

    I’m not the only one thinking it: Finally.

    He’s gotten away with way too much.

  30. Mike Wazowski says:

    Professor Q: Don’t feel too badly. Nashville did, too.

    So did Montreal.

  31. Pescador says:

    Professor Q: Don’t feel too badly. Nashville did, too.

    Oilers didn’t have Pekka Rinne,
    They had Jeff Deslauriers

  32. Pescador says:

    Professor Q: I don’t even know who Neil Diamond is.

    Sweet Caroline?
    https://youtu.be/1vhFnTjia_I

  33. Mike Wazowski says:

    Pescador: Oilers didn’t have Pekka Rinne,
    They had Jeff Deslauriers

    When Dubnyk was traded Deslauriers wasn’t on the team.

  34. Pescador says:

    Mike Wazowski: When Dubnyk was traded Deslauriers wasn’t on the team.

    Haha you got me,
    That was a total guess.
    Who was the back up?

  35. Younger Oil says:

    Wait, why can refs look at the jumbotron to determine the right call for delay of game penalties, but not any other call?

    That is so dumb.

  36. geowal says:

    Seeing Rieder good in this OT for LA. Too bad he slipped away, we all thought we had a draft steal (and did).

  37. geowal says:

    Pescador: Haha you got me,
    That was a total guess.
    Who was the back up?

    Ben Scrivens was brought in same time. The illustrious Bryzgalov was still around then.

  38. Wayne Kenov says:

    geowal:
    Seeing Rieder good in this OT for LA. Too bad he slipped away, we all thought we had a draft steal (and did).

    What is Kessy up to these days. His toughness makes him infinitely more valuable. He probably only plays in All Star games and Olympics, when the skill level is high enough for him.

  39. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t know how you can possibly think wingers are just as valuable as centres. Think about their roles and responsibilities on the ice.Does it make the Hall trade good? Not even close.

    Hall last 2 years with oilers
    135gm 40g 63a 103 pt -5
    Averaged 68gm Hall 14gm 13-17fwd
    68gm 20g 32A 52p -3

    First year in jersey
    72gm 20g 33a 53p -9

    An avg of 61 fwds per season achieved 20g 52p
    Bottom 1st line forward upper #3 fwd.

    We go and get a top 5 HD dman and make the playoffs.
    The we run a OZ perimeter swarm abandoning HD area and miss the playoffs.

    Hall stated he got better once he started to listen to coach.

    What fantasy land does Hall listen to the coach in Edmonton last year or this year.

    Once again a false hall would be a great Oiler narrative!
    We traded 4yr of upper #3 fwd for 5 yr of top 5 HD dmen in the league when you need 3+ top 40 HD dmen.
    It allowed Sekera a top15 hd dman facing 2nd comp.
    To form the #3 2nd comp HD dpair in the league.

    The big mistake was moving eberle.
    One of the 15 most consistent g and point producers over his final 4 seasons.
    PC traded 2yr of 81gm 23g 60p when healthy
    Or 76gm 23g 49p unhealthy
    For 4+ yr of #3 C Strome
    81gm 14G 21A 35p
    13evg 15 Eva 28 Evp

    RNH 15-16 & 16-17 averaged
    69gm 15g 24a 39p
    11evg 17eva 28evp

    Stromes similiar even numbers frees up RNH to play PvP left wing.with Mcdavid.
    16gm 8g 9a 17p
    Which is what I have said he is for 6 years.

    Do you want LW hall and RW Eberle with no Larsson, RNH, or strome

    C – Mcdavid, Draisatl, Strome, Khaira
    LW – RNH, xxx, Lucic, Slepyshev
    RW – Puljujärvi – Aberg – xxx – Kassian

    Yamamoto sept 29birth day. (14/365) WHL (.302/.32)
    82gm NHLE adjusted for age and league.
    17yr – Age. .510; age/league.4813
    25g 35a 60p
    19evg 18 Eva 37evp
    6 ppg 15 papa 21 ppp
    0 she 2 sha 2 ship

    18 yr – age .404; age league .3813
    23g 37a 60p
    16 evg 24a 40pevp
    4ppg 12ppa 16 ppp
    2shg 0 sha 2 shp

    Avg 24g 36a 60p
    18evg 21eva 39evp
    5 ppg 14 ppg 19 ppp
    1shg 1 sha 2 shp

  40. Professor Q says:

    Pescador: Sweet Caroline?
    https://youtu.be/1vhFnTjia_I

    No shyte. I always thought that was [embarrassingly] Tom Jones!

  41. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Game has changed. It’s all about speed. You could do that same analysis on McKinnon.

  42. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Pink Socks: I agree somewhat, but one could also make the point that PC drastically undervalued Tyler Seguin as well, a C.Blaming everything on the OBC doesn’t make sense, also agree, because there are one of two scenarios in place:

    1) PC has made every decision, approved them, and therefore the onus is on him for the performance of the team and the damage he has done

    or

    2) The OBC is responsible for everything that has gone wrong, trades, signings, and more. IMO this looks worse on PC because he therefore is not able to assert himself in the decision making process and is thus dead weight.

    I can make an argument for and against each of PC’s move and back them up with somewhat decent evidence in either direction, though it is certainly easier to be more critical of PC than supportive.I believe the truth is somewhere in between atrocious and above average.Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a GM with this roster.

    I will give PC credit for improving the D corps, though it is clearly not enough.I can also give him credit for revamping and greatly improving the scouting team and at the draft table.He seems to have had 3 very good drafts since coming aboard.That does not absolve him of some of his other decisions, mileage varies on which decision has been the most detrimental. (For me it is the blatant disregard of the cap next year, this falls on PC and Nicholson).I am nervously looking forward to the summer.Feelings aside, I think we can all agree that since PC is here for next season, I hope he has a tremendous draft and tweaks around the edges to make this a 103 pt team again in 2018-19.

    Seguin played wing in Boston. Not C.

  43. geowal says:

    Wayne Kenov: What is Kessy up to these days. His toughness makes him infinitely more valuable. He probably only plays in All Star games and Olympics, when the skill level is high enough for him.

    He still played for the Oilers some last year….the ECHL Tulsa Oilers.

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