Armed Forces

My Dad was born in 1912, was 18 when the dirty 30’s hit and enlisted for World War Two age 27. He grew up poor (always said it took six years to get word of the depression to Radisson, and even then no one noticed) and he worked pretty much every day of his life. He would always say he didn’t see a banana until he was 14, couldn’t remember how old when he actually got to eat one. Based on how much he loved bananas, I expect at least part of that story is true. Dad made up so much crap (he said we changed our name because our Dutch name was Van Dumb!) we could never believe/not believe.

He hunted for bargains, even when we had a little money. I remember when I was maybe 10 years old, we went to see a man named Alex Simchuk at the hospital (he was dying of cancer). My Dad brought him grapes, and Alex was so happy (he’d been craving them). Dad enjoyed that, then proceeded to tell Alex he’d paid more for the grapes than he paid for the hat he was wearing. Dad thought the hat was a better deal. My Mom told my Dad (something like) no one cared and why couldn’t he for once say something normal (she always said that to him). I played with my Hot Wheels and my brother (he was four years older) tried to get the attention of the pretty nurses. Funny what you remember.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

New translations from Vollman mean new Oilers numbers. I’ll wait until next week to run the complete totals, but here are the top 10 forwards by NHLE. It gives us a nice stepping off point for the idea of bargains.

  • Yamamoto and Maksimov lead the teenage brigade, with Marody and Hebig posting the best amateur numbers from the 20+ group.
  • Ty Rattie is hurtling toward free agency but could be a bargain deal next season. Even if he played 30 games on the McDavid line and the rest as a depth player, it’s possible he could post 10+ goals. That would be real value for $800,000.
  • Benson, Safin and McPhee are players worth watching, you’d like to see more offense next season.

Marody looks good so far (2gp, 1-1-2) and the club is playing him at center. It’s too soon to know, but perhaps Marody can push for an NHL job at some point next season. If he can be productive, that trade (2019 third-round pick) would represent great bargain hunting and solid value. Oilers need to make this kind of move several more times over the summer.

This is a must read. Spector lays out what looks like an attempted (or ongoing attempt at) coup d’état in the halls of the Edmonton Oilers. The avail by Bob Nicholson yesterday suggests to me that there is something going on, if things were right the coach then general manager speak, followed by silencio. Yesterday’s muddle is a tell. I think Spector does a great job breaking things down and if you want my guess as to who the king maker is, well, I’ll bet Kevin Lowe. Lowe would have had to be onboard with replacing MacTavish with PC in 2015 spring and I expect his influence still trumps the late comers, ne’er-do-wells, storm door salesmen and the red wine mafia. If I’m right, this will be at least twice Lowe put what may be perceived as the ‘greater good’ in front of his boys on the bus brethren. I’m not getting into that argument today, beyond stating if you’re going to replace the general manager or the coach a real search must be conducted and winning the 1984 Stanley has jack diddly to do with being an NHL general manager in 2018.

BARGAINS

It’s going to be the theme of summer, along with trading that first-round selection. Oilers need to be looking to the AHL for help (the best minor league wingers at 20, in terms of shots, were Daniel Sprong of the Penguins and Mathieu Joseph of the Lightning) and possibly Europe too. The procurement this summer has limitations:

  • $1 million or less.
  • no assets out.

It needs to be a Steve Staios summer in Edmonton. The team needs value contracts applied to 20-goal scorers and backup goalies who could play 30 games capably. It can be done. The 1987 Montreal Expos are such a team. Half of their pitching staff came from the pile of broken arms, they had two third basemen and two first basemen as infield regulars, and their Hall of Fame outfielder didn’t play until May. Young, old, recently retired, playing in Russia or Switzerland. Somewhere out there are solutions and the Oilers need to find them in a quick damned hurry.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun Friday show, maybe we’ll pour some red wine to celebrate the coming warmth of the sun. At 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Oilers front office, playoffs.
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. Is this the year of the Raptors?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Is keeping Chiarelli the correct call?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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243 Responses to "Armed Forces"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    No matter what Chiarelli said the other day, he was going to get blasted by the fanbase and blogging community. Everything was (and has been) spun in order to continue a negative connotation towards the current state of the organization. Lets look at some of the things he did say:

    1) the coaching staff is under evaluation – there is no guarantee that they will be brought back and it seems highly likely there will be changes. Although its looking like McLellan is likely to return, there is a likely change in the assistants which is something the fans have been clamoring for.

    2) Nuge is part of the core and will not be traded – exactly what the fanbase wants

    3) He will not dismantle the core of the team but is expecting to make the playoffs next year – he isn’t talking like Dorion about it being a few years until the playoffs are reasonable and will make changes to improve for next year but he isn’t going to be dismantling core pieces to do so.

    4) The first round pick is in play – although I’m more hesitant on this than most, this seems to be what many want

    5) He will look to improve the back-up goaltending to help Talbot – something the fans have been clamoring for

    6) He will look to improve the top 4 of the defence and, in a perfect world will have a good leftie/rightie balance – something the fans have been clamoring for.

    Sure, he said some weird things like “he liked Lucic’s skating” and people are hanging on to those innocuous quotes and ignoring the part where he said how disappointing Lucic’s season was and how he has to be better.

    Who cares about what he said about Lucic’s skating? I care about what his plan is going forward and, when speaking about what he wants to do going forward, it jives with what most people want.

    More importantly, by looking for things to bash with, it seems many/most are ignoring the substantive things he did say which generally line up with what most people want, as laid out above.

    He acknowledged mistakes (i.e. not doing more to plug the Sekera hole and relying on young non-established forwards to take steps forward) and said he himself is subject to evaluation and he realized he needs to be better.

    He did put the blame squarely on the players for the most part but, given he is the one that put the players together, isn’t that essentially blaming himself, indirectly?

    I’m not trying to defend Chiarelli – I would have actually like to have seen a change (I don’t think he will be (or has the rope to be) patient enough to make smart moves over a couple of years) but I think people are taking quotes from his presser to spin negatively without actually listening to the substance of the way forward.

  2. Ben says:

    Do the junior-league NHLEs get adjusted for age/season? Or do Hebig and Yamamoto get the same multiplier?

  3. tlatos says:

    Nigel Dawes and Linus Omark on the PP?

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    Is this Spector’s bid for national on Sportsnet? Something deeper here, because if he’s right, neither side will be happy with how that article came across.

  5. Jaxon says:

    If they are buying out or trading a left side D this season, I could see them signing LHD Brandon Manning as cover/replacement if he is willing to sign in the $2M or less range. Would gambling on RHD Ryan Sproul make sense this summer?

  6. Jaxon says:

    I hope they can lure a KHL goalie as Talbot’s backup. Specifically, Pavel Francouz, although there are others.

  7. Ben says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Is this Spector’s bid for national on Sportsnet? Something deeper here, because if he’s right, neither side will be happy with how that article came across.

    I think the piece is an attempt at “rationally inquisitive sports journalism”. Coming from YEG’s mainstream sports media, it caught me off guard, too.

  8. meanashell11 says:

    What happened to Cory Schneider in NJ?

    That cap hit though! Ouch!

  9. boneshj says:

    I’m seeing people looking at Lowe as the target of Spector’s piece. I’m not so sure about that and wonder if it’s another past legend who is much more liked by the fans. This person happens to be the one Coffey is buddying up to when he should be with the assistants, and this person happens to be a brand name for various alcohols including Red Wine. This person is also well known for enjoying a fair amount of drinks in public.

    Just my thoughts.

  10. fuzzy muppet says:

    LT

    What you’re saying is Floyd Youmans is coming to the rescue?

    Surely it’s not Joe hesketh?!

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    Ben: I think the piece is an attempt at “rationally inquisitive sports journalism”. Coming from YEG’s mainstream sports media, it caught me off guard, too.

    It confirmed for me that Spec has never had sources in the organisation, and all his previous ‘breaks’ were, as I suspected, completely fabricated.

    Because if not, he’s probably lost his source, if it existed. Which it didn’t.

  12. Confused says:

    Anyone follow the KHL?

    Mikko. Koshinen leaving? Are we in on him? Is he any good?

    Bob keeps dropping these European goalie statements.

    Francouz is more obvious, but if multiple guys are exiting as more viability.

    Thoughts?

  13. Cassandra says:

    The biggest thing, to my eye, from Chiarelli’s availability was more evidence of his inability or unwillingness to learn from his mistakes.

    To wit, he specifically mentioned how he thought the offense from wingers was adequate and, in any case, wingers are easy to find.

    This is the false heuristic that led to the Taylor Hall trade.

    Chiarelli thinks that wingers are inherently less valuable than other positions. There is no rational or empirical reason for thinking this. Therefore we can conclude with reasonable certainty that a) Chiarelli believes things that are false because he doesn’t understand the issues, and b) Chiarelli is going to continue making mistakes because he uses the wrong criteria for evaluating players.

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence that they are. There is no reason to believe that they are.

    In this vein, we can start developing simple criteria for evaluating coaches and general managers.

    For general managers it would be something like:

    1) If you trade first round picks like they are an infinite resource you cannot be my general manager.
    2) If you think of your team in terms of needs rather than talent then you cannot be my general manager. Never trade talent for need.

    For coaches it would be something like:

    1) If your first unit PP has two defensemen on it, I seriously question your judgement.
    2) If you play Milan Lucic more than 10 minutes a night, I seriously question your judgement.
    3) If you insist that young players earn their minutes while gifting minutes to veterans who can’t play, I seriously question your judgement.

  14. Dustylegnd says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Is this Spector’s bid for national on Sportsnet? Something deeper here, because if he’s right, neither side will be happy with how that article came across.

    I think this is what they call journalism no? Sporsnet has the NHL television rights for a long time, and they have a responsibility to report what they know.

    God bless Spector for reporting the facts about the half ass coaching effort put in by Coffee, this was the expected outcome after his hire, and is similar to the experience the Coyotes had with Gretzky at the helm….less than 100% invested when it came to preparation, dedication, and professionalism as a coach.

    My favourite part in Specs story is the Red Wine Summit report, which is consistent with my observations of some of the OBC…..shameless…..good for Spec stepping up and screaming “The Emperor has no Clothes”

    Answer me this, who in their right mind wants to come work in the disfunction of this Organization….seriously……who……Nickel Bob must yearn for the good old days of Hockey Canada…good lord

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No matter what Chiarelli said the other day, he was going to get blasted by the fanbase and blogging community. Everything was (and has been) spun in order to continue a negative connotation towards the current state of the organization. Lets look at some of the things he did say:

    1) the coaching staff is under evaluation – there is no guarantee that they will be brought back and it seems highly likely there will be changes. Although its looking like McLellan is likely to return, there is a likely change in the assistants which is something the fans have been clamoring for.

    2) Nuge is part of the core and will not be traded – exactly what the fanbase wants

    3) He will not dismantle the core of the team but is expecting to make the playoffs next year – he isn’t talking like Dorion about it being a few years until the playoffs are reasonable and will make changes to improve for next year but he isn’t going to be dismantling core pieces to do so.

    4) The first round pick is in play – although I’m more hesitant on this than most, this seems to be what many want

    5) He will look to improve the back-up goaltending to help Talbot – something the fans have been clamoring for

    6) He will look to improve the top 4 of the defence and, in a perfect world will have a good leftie/rightie balance – something the fans have been clamoring for.

    Sure, he said some weird things like “he liked Lucic’s skating” and people are hanging on to those innocuous quotes and ignoring the part where he said how disappointing Lucic’s season was and how he has to be better.

    Who cares about what he said about Lucic’s skating? I care about what his plan is going forward and, when speaking about what he wants to do going forward, it jives with what most people want.

    More importantly, by looking for things to bash with, it seems many/most are ignoring the substantive things he did say which generally line up with what most people want, as laid out above.

    He acknowledged mistakes (i.e. not doing more to plug the Sekera hole and relying on young non-established forwards to take steps forward) and said he himself is subject to evaluation and he realized he needs to be better.

    He did put the blame squarely on the players for the most part but, given he is the one that put the players together, isn’t that essentially blaming himself, indirectly?

    I’m not trying to defend Chiarelli – I would have actually like to have seen a change (I don’t think he will be (or has the rope to be) patient enough to make smart moves over a couple of years) but I think people are taking quotes from his presser to spin negatively without actually listening to the substance of the way forward.

    Nice to see you back OP. Just like the Oil can use some balance, so can this comment section.

    I really dislike the idea of keeping Tmac and firing some assistants. It seems like such a half-assed move. It would be different if Tmac recognized the need to change assistants and did it himself. Foisting change on the coach doesn’t seem like a good way to deal with the problem.

    Ryan Rishaug asked a good question yesterday. Would any team hire any of our coaches should they be released? That includes assistants and the AHL. I’m not even sure Tmac would get a HC gig at this point.

  16. anjinsan says:

    “I’m here today to tell you that the President and General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers, Peter Chiarelli, will be the (president and) general manager next year,” began Nicholson. “I really believe in his plan. Over the last number of months, we’ve been meeting with a lot of our season ticket holders. There’s anger and disappointment of where we ended up. We certainly understand where they are. We will have a plan coming out here in the near future of how we’re going forward.”

    I truly believed Chiarelli was going to be genius and constitute a great team for years given the luck and fantastic depth in the ’15 draft.

    But he botched it in his very first move.

    He is willful. We’re three years into his plan. His past performance was repeated these last three years. The team is hamstrung by his contracts and asset losses. Gott im Himmel!

    The only possible plan he can have is to trade away the future for pennies on the dollar for players now. I’m sure GMs are lining up to the trough.

    Someone else like Cheveldayoff would not have botched the opportunity.

  17. zatch says:

    Confused,

    I assume you mean Koskinen? He’s 29, so likely as good as he’ll ever be right now. The Isles appear to have a deal in principle with him though, so he’s likely out. Career path reminds me a bit of Nilsson tbh.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Is this Spector’s bid for national on Sportsnet? Something deeper here, because if he’s right, neither side will be happy with how that article came across.

    It reads like Nicholson wrote it:

    1) The OBC needs to shut the fuck up and let the GM do his job
    2) The GM has made some bad moves and has a season worth of rope left

  19. Pretendergast says:

    Jaxon,

    Not against your solution but I’ll leave it to you to tell Connor Brandon Manning was signed lol

  20. Jaxon says:

    I think in any other year, Svechnikov would be mentioned as a close-to-generational player. His 5-on-5 goals/minute is the highest number by a large margin to come out of Canadian junior in the last 15 years.

    This stats shows NHL expected equivalency adjusted (based on Vollman’s new #s) 5-on-5 goals per 14.25 minutes over 82 games (top 6 median 5-on-5 ice time)

    17.25 Andrei Svechnikov
    14.00 Connor McDavid
    14.00 Patrick Kane
    13.26 Sidney Crosby
    12.41 John Tavares
    12.09 Alex DeBrincat
    12.03 Jonathan Drouin
    11.96 Robby Fabbri

    Zadina isn’t even in the top 80, so I’m not sure how they get mentioned as interchangeable at #2 & #3 by some people. I can buy Dahlin being better than Svechnikov as he is seen as a generational D (the next Lidstrom) and it is more difficult to compare D to F, but Svechnikov could be far and away the best sniper in the next 10 years. If Edmonton picks at #1, they pick Dahlin although I wouldn’t be upset to get Svechnikov at #1. If they pick#2, they pick Svechnikov for sure. If Edmonton picks #3 and Svechnikov is still available because someone stupidly picked Zadina, then Edmonton can thank the draft gods once again and pick Svechnikov. If Svechnikov is gone at #3, I wouldn’t mind them trading down and maybe adding to their pick (#3 + Caleb Jones? +?) to NYI for #10 & #12 and grabbing Veleno and Merkley. (this was suggested by ArmchairGM originally).

  21. Dustylegnd says:

    boneshj: if you want my guess as to who the king maker is, well, I’ll bet Kevin Lowe. Lowe would have had to be onboard with replacing MacTavish with PC in 2015 spring and I expect his influence still trumps the late comers, ne’er-do-wells, storm door salesmen and the red wine mafia. If I’m right, this will be at least twice Lowe put what may be perceived as the ‘greater good’ in front of his boys on the bus brethren

    LT certainly is saying that Lowe is acting in the greater interest of the Oilers organization by drowning the OBC voices and continues to have the most influence in maintaining some sort of professionalism in the organization no?

    LT said:

    if you want my guess as to who the king maker is, well, I’ll bet Kevin Lowe. Lowe would have had to be onboard with replacing MacTavish with PC in 2015 spring and I expect his influence still trumps the late comers, ne’er-do-wells, storm door salesmen and the red wine mafia. If I’m right, this will be at least twice Lowe put what may be perceived as the ‘greater good’ in front of his boys on the bus brethren

    So Lowe steps up to stop the insanity, good for him, as much as I hate the job Chia has done I am pretty sure it is better than any job Gretz Sr can do as a part time GM

  22. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Well said +1

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    The biggest thing, to my eye, from Chiarelli’s availability was more evidence of his inability or unwillingness to learn from his mistakes.

    To wit, he specifically mentioned how he thought the offense from wingers was adequate and, in any case, wingers are easy to find.

    This is the false heuristic that led to the Taylor Hall trade.

    Chiarelli thinks that wingers are inherently less valuable than other positions.There is no rational or empirical reason for thinking this.Therefore we can conclude with reasonable certainty that a)Chiarelli believes things that are false because he doesn’t understand the issues, and b) Chiarelli is going to continue making mistakes because he uses the wrong criteria for evaluating players.

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers.There is no evidence that they are.There is no reason to believe that they are.

    In this vein, we can start developing simple criteria for evaluating coaches and general managers.

    For general managers it would be something like:

    1) If you trade first round picks like they are an infinite resource you cannot be my general manager.
    2) If you think of your team in terms of needs rather than talent then you cannot be my general manager.Never trade talent for need.

    For coaches it would be something like:

    1) If your first unit PP has two defensemen on it, I seriously question your judgement.
    2) If you play Milan Lucic more than 10 minutes a night, I seriously question your judgement.
    3) If you insist that young players earn their minutes while gifting minutes to veterans who can’t play, I seriously question your judgement.

    I don’t know how you can possibly think wingers are just as valuable as centres. Think about their roles and responsibilities on the ice. Does it make the Hall trade good? Not even close.

  24. Jaxon says:

    Pretendergast:
    Jaxon,

    Not against your solution but I’ll leave it to you to tell Connor Brandon Manning was signed lol

    Haha, for sure. It seems these things happen. Kassian playing with Gagner. And Manning “honourably?” paid his dues for that one by fighting someone when they dropped the gloves. Plus, I don’t think he meant to harm McDavid it was a bit of a freak accident in my opinion. I recall there was a bit of back and forth between them in the media over it, but I’m not sure if McDavid feels it was intentional. Players get over shit all the time. I’d definitely run it by McDavid before making the deal though. I’m pretty sure McDavid would be all for it as long as it improved the team.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon:
    I think in any other year, Svechnikov would be mentioned as a close-to-generational player. His 5-on-5 goals/minute is the highest number by a large margin to come out of Canadian junior in the last 15 years.

    This stats shows NHL expected equivalency adjusted (based on Vollman’s new #s) 5-on-5 goals per 14.25 minutes over 82 games (top 6 median 5-on-5 ice time)

    17.25 Andrei Svechnikov

    14.00 Connor McDavid

    14.00 Patrick Kane

    13.26 Sidney Crosby

    12.41 John Tavares

    12.09 Alex DeBrincat

    12.03 Jonathan Drouin

    11.96 Robby Fabbri

    Zadina isn’t even in the top 80, so I’m not sure how they get mentioned as interchangeable at #2 & #3 by some people. I can buy Dahlin being better than Svechnikov as he is seen as a generational D (the next Lidstrom) and it is more difficult to compare D to F, but Svechnikov could be far and away the best sniper in the next 10 years. If Edmonton picks at #1, they pick Dahlin although I wouldn’t be upset to get Svechnikov at #1. If they pick#2, they pick Svechnikov for sure. If Edmonton picks #3 and Svechnikov is still available because someone stupidly picked Zadina, then Edmonton can thank the draft gods once again and pick Svechnikov. If Svechnikov is gone at #3, I wouldn’t mind them trading down and maybe adding to their pick (#3 + Caleb Jones? +?) to NYI for #10 & #12 and grabbing Veleno and Merkley. (this was suggested by ArmchairGM originally).

    Great post!! I know very little about the draft, but I keep asking myself why Zadina is even in the same conversation with Svechnikov.

  26. Dustylegnd says:

    Confused:
    Love JP! Great story, only JP

    https://oilersnation.com/2018/04/13/jesse-puljujarvi-hitches-a-ride-home-with-an-oilers-fan/

    This is beyond awesome….like a scene from Letterkenny
    Go JP!!!!

  27. Jethro Tull says:

    Dustylegnd,

    Facts? Are they facts? Or is it an opinion piece that coincides with how you see it? If it’s all fact, then he has a very good source close to all of this. But who?

    Not Chia, because no boss wants it known they’re just a puppet.

    Certainly not the OBC, unless Spec has broke that source for the sake of something else. The greater good or his career?

    Uncle Bob and my other son in law Daryl? Hmmmm, Spec is a strange choice, better journos with better reps are out there.

    There are agendas here. Just because some travel in the same direction, it doesn’t follow that they’re all the same.

    As with Spec? Know the method, know the man. His past pieces speak volumes about him.

  28. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t know how you can possibly think wingers are just as valuable as centres. Think about their roles and responsibilities on the ice.Does it make the Hall trade good? Not even close.

    You are exaggerating how much positions matter on the ice. Hockey is a fluid game, and any tactical system is going to require that players play according to their position on the ice at that moment in time, not where they lined up for the faceoff.

    In any case, if center really were more important it would show up in things like WOWYs. It doesn’t, therefore we know it isn’t more important.

    What matters is goals for and against, and there is no evidence that who is playing center has a larger effect on goals for and against than who is playing wing. What the evidence indicates is that the best players, regardless of position, have the largest effect on goals for and against.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra,

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence that they are. There is no reason to believe that they are.

    I think this became a “norm” due to the fact that historically there have been more valuable centers than wingers.

    Some wingers are immensely valuable.

    Current NHLers include: Ovechkin, Hall, Benn, Tarasenko, Marner, Kane, Kucherov, Wheeler, Gaudreau, Kessel, Vorachek, Marchand, Stone, Pacioretty just to name a handful

    Inability to understand this is concerning.

  30. pboy says:

    My Twitter feed is filling up with make Lowe the GM again and MacT the HC and keep Keith Gretzky as ASGM to be in charge of drafting. Everything old is new again in Oilerland!

  31. pboy says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I’ve always thought that one of the best ways to evaluate what everyone else thinks about someone, is to see how quickly they are interviewed for new jobs once they become available. When MacT was finished with the Oilers, he went to work for TSN and I don’t think he was interviewed anywhere for open GM or HC jobs during that time. That’s a tell. Same with Howson. Babcock and Todd were both snapped up immediately once they were available and that’s a tell too. Same could be said for Pete Chiarelli. I’m not saying that Chia and tMac are great at their jobs because they got new ones quickly, just that at the time they were hired here, these guys were well thought of. The inner conflict Spector is talking about is sewering careers, reputations and hockey seasons. Katz needs to figure out what he wants here.

  32. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Look at the centres most of these guys play with, how successful would most of them be without a centre that can’t get them the puck?

  33. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It reads like Nicholson wrote it:

    1) The OBC needs to shut the fuck up and let the GM do his job
    2) The GM has made some bad moves and has a season worth of rope left

    – I think this is a fair asessement of the situation

    – The bit on Paul Coffey is really awful. It’s kind of how I’ve viewed the OBC: only privledged, protected insiders would behave as a “coach” like Coffey. Not really a coach, not really part of the group, hanging out with the OBC. The message to the players on the team for that is awful IMO. It’s also a terrible message to the rest of the coaching staff

    – I don’t believe there is an urgency to fire the coach and or staff. I suspect there is a lot of behind the scenes jockeying and back-stabbing, and not much of “how do we get a better coaching staff”

    – An ideal sequence of events would be:

    1) punting some of the people in player development, those in charge of the the farm system, the coach of the farm system, some AGM’s that aren’t part of the existing regime etc

    2) Bringing in some new people with different perspectives and experiences in those key positions

    3) Once you have this new group, and a meeting of the minds, collectively they evaluate the coaching staff, and go out and hire the right people

    – To the extent we can believe the comments from Bob and Chia: it appears that Chia goes through Bob, who talks with Wayne and Lowe, who talk to the owner

    – They have the summer to get it right, and bring in better people. But this summer will be about the different factions, jockeying for influence. That’s not the conduct or best-practices of a winner organization: hockey or otherwise.

    – My hard targets for change would be (in no particular order):

    1) MacT – AGM, whose farm team that he in charge of has been awful

    2) Duane Sutter: VP Player Personel. After 6 years with the organziation, and a decidly weak track-record of player development, its time to find a new voice

    3) Bill Scott – Lots of teams have very impressive quant guys/insiders in this role.

    4) Howson – VP Player Development: again with MacT, I don’t believe they are adding enough value in terms of being in charge of the AHL/ECHL. And there is weird development tracks that many of the players under their watch have taken

    5) Rick Carriere – As the senoir guy of player development: again, how many execs in this organzation that have been here a long time, and no record of success in their roles. 6 years is too long, time for a change

    6) Dustin Schartz: a tough gig, but your in charge of the goalies. Sorry, need another perspective after 3 years in the helm

    – It may be a coincidence that all of these people were hired under MacT/Lowe’s watch. But it doesn’t make sense that with a new GM and a new president, some of these key roles wouldn’t go to new people from outside the organization

    – Bob has at least followed the proper management protocol: deferring to the person he hired, believing that he is the best person in the organization to run the team. It was no mistake that Bob came out to speak the day after Chia did.

    – Chia alone can’t do it all. It’s been an interesting few days to follow for someone like me who is a a proponent of and studied organizational behaviour.

    – Certainly its a difficult situation: the personal betrayals that should happen: i.e MacT/Lowe?Gretz/Coffey, etc, and all that the OBC has assembled in good faith, with good intentions by a group that had amazing experiences together is a gigantic task. The egos, sense of entitlement, lack of competence, love of the organization, loyalty to a friendly enabling owner : all jumbled together

    – It’s not going to be easy, and they won’t get it all right this off-season, but make no mistake, outside forces are identifying the problem.

    – Big courage for Spector, a MSM Oiler insider and friend of the OBC to go rogue, and write something that a lot of people have been aware of, or strongly suspected…

  34. Jaxon says:

    I also did the same exercise for 5-on-5 Primary Points NHLEs for top 6 Median. God’s Flashlight on Steroids?

    Since Crosby’s Draft Year:
    28.07 Connor McDavid
    25.85 Sidney Crosby
    25.33 Andrei Svechnikov***
    22.72 Dylan Strome
    22.15 Mitchell Marner
    21.26 Patrick Kane
    20.68 Robby Fabbri
    19.92 Sam Gagner
    19.22 Taylor Hall
    18.84 Spencer Watson
    18.63 Jonathan Drouin
    18.46 Sam Bennett
    18.41 Nathan MacKinnon
    18.39 Zachary Senyshyn
    18.14 Blake Speers
    18.01 Andrew Mangiapane
    17.82 Chris Stewart
    17.76 Ryan Strome
    17.63 Pierre-Luc Dubois
    17.37 John Tavares
    17.37 Tyler Seguin
    17.25 Alex DeBrincat
    17.02 Sven BArtschi
    16.96 Oliver Bjorkstrand
    16.96 Nicolas Petan
    16.86 Gabriel Landeskog
    16.86 Steven Stamkos
    16.74 Josh Ho-Sang
    16.55 Logan DeNoble (undrafted 20 yr old)
    16.51 Filip Zadina***
    16.51 Julien Gauthier
    16.48 Adam Mascherin
    16.42 Chase De Leo
    16.42 Owen Tippett
    16.42 Greg Nemisz
    16.42 Austin Watson
    16.36 Shane Prince
    16.28 Nikolaj Ehlers
    16.23 Tyler Toffoli
    16.23 Anthony Mantha
    16.13 Leon Draisaitl
    15.97 Nikolay Goldobin
    15.91 Nick Ritchie
    15.66 Max Domi
    15.59 Evander Kane
    15.53 Cody Hodgson
    15.46 Ivan Lodnia
    15.46 Matthew Tkachuk
    15.46 Joshua Bailey
    15.33 Mikhail Grigorenko
    15.21 Boone Jenner
    15.08 Andrew Yogan
    15.05 Kailer Yamamoto
    14.57 Serron Noel*** – next highest after Svechnikov and Zadina in all Canadian Junior this season and he’s 6’5″, 201lbs!

    PS sorry about the length of this one.

  35. knighttown says:

    So…quite a few comments about 99 and the bottle.

    I’ve met the man twice in the past 3-4 years.

    Once at Old Head golf course in Ireland and once at at bar at an airport hotel near Toronto.

    Both times he was completely wasted. I mean, high school levels of drunk you don’t often see in adults.

    Then there was the tipsy interview during the Oilers game this summer and now “red wine summits”.

    I’m way out here in Halifax and I can tell you there is zero chatter about Wayne battling the bottle so with my two run-ins I just assumed the guy was having a bit of a party, especially the golf course incident although it was before the round.

    So my question is…is this a known issue around the city? Are there whispers?

  36. FlameChampion says:

    Honestly I read the king that spector is referring to as Wayne Gretzky. They have shown him numerous times throughout the games, and the guy is hammered. Also it seems like someone above Chiarelli hired Coffey. Isnt Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey best friends?

  37. knighttown says:

    Jaxon:
    I think in any other year, Svechnikov would be mentioned as a close-to-generational player. His 5-on-5 goals/minute is the highest number by a large margin to come out of Canadian junior in the last 15 years.

    This stats shows NHL expected equivalency adjusted (based on Vollman’s new #s) 5-on-5 goals per 14.25 minutes over 82 games (top 6 median 5-on-5 ice time)

    17.25 Andrei Svechnikov
    14.00 Connor McDavid
    14.00 Patrick Kane
    13.26 Sidney Crosby
    12.41 John Tavares
    12.09 Alex DeBrincat
    12.03 Jonathan Drouin
    11.96 Robby Fabbri

    Zadina isn’t even in the top 80, so I’m not sure how they get mentioned as interchangeable at #2 & #3 by some people. I can buy Dahlin being better than Svechnikov as he is seen as a generational D (the next Lidstrom) and it is more difficult to compare D to F, but Svechnikov could be far and away the best sniper in the next 10 years. If Edmonton picks at #1, they pick Dahlin although I wouldn’t be upset to get Svechnikov at #1. If they pick#2, they pick Svechnikov for sure. If Edmonton picks #3 and Svechnikov is still available because someone stupidly picked Zadina, then Edmonton can thank the draft gods once again and pick Svechnikov. If Svechnikov is gone at #3, I wouldn’t mind them trading down and maybe adding to their pick (#3 + Caleb Jones? +?) to NYI for #10 & #12 and grabbing Veleno and Merkley. (this was suggested by ArmchairGM originally).

    Great post. I wasn’t aware of this. I often used both wingers interchangeably but seeing a few Mooseheads games live I’ve never been completely blown away.

  38. Confused says:

    zatch,

    This has now been discredited.

  39. Cassandra says:

    Oilman99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Look at the centres most of these guys play with, how successful would most of them be without a centre that can’t get them the puck?

    We have WOWYs for that. And what the WOWYs tell us is that in many cases the wingers matter more than the centers.

    For instance, Hall is Hall in all circumstances, but RNH was much better with Hall than without. Position doesn’t matter. Who is better matters.

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    It’s interesting to see scuttlebutt compiling that confirms Chiarelli is likely not in a position where he has carte blanche on personnel decisions.

    I think that should’ve been fairly obvious as the OBC was the group that brought you such smash hits as Travis Ewanyk, Mitch Moroz, and Martin Gernat. Clearly there would’ve been internal staff pimping for Reinhart at a point where Chiarelli didn’t have his own staff in place.

    Yep, Chiarelli should’ve ignored that, but I will always maintain that he was brought in under the mandate of getting a young D asap and when the Hamilton deal fell through, he was pressured to go with an exceedingly poor Plan B.

  41. russ99 says:

    Cassandra:
    The biggest thing, to my eye, from Chiarelli’s availability was more evidence of his inability or unwillingness to learn from his mistakes.

    To wit, he specifically mentioned how he thought the offense from wingers was adequate and, in any case, wingers are easy to find.

    This is the false heuristic that led to the Taylor Hall trade.

    Chiarelli thinks that wingers are inherently less valuable than other positions.There is no rational or empirical reason for thinking this.Therefore we can conclude with reasonable certainty that a)Chiarelli believes things that are false because he doesn’t understand the issues, and b) Chiarelli is going to continue making mistakes because he uses the wrong criteria for evaluating players.

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers.There is no evidence that they are.There is no reason to believe that they are.

    In this vein, we can start developing simple criteria for evaluating coaches and general managers.

    For general managers it would be something like:

    1) If you trade first round picks like they are an infinite resource you cannot be my general manager.
    2) If you think of your team in terms of needs rather than talent then you cannot be my general manager.Never trade talent for need.

    For coaches it would be something like:

    1) If your first unit PP has two defensemen on it, I seriously question your judgement.
    2) If you play Milan Lucic more than 10 minutes a night, I seriously question your judgement.
    3) If you insist that young players earn their minutes while gifting minutes to veterans who can’t play, I seriously question your judgement.

    It’s obvious that things being equal, centers are more valuable than wingers when you look at everything other than goals, The mindset of “scoring goals matter over everything else” seems to be the scourge of this fanbase.

    Obviously there’s above average wingers that are better than less than average centers.

  42. Confused says:

    Hitchcock retiring!

  43. Jaxon says:

    knighttown: Great post.I wasn’t aware of this.I often used both wingers interchangeably but seeing a few Mooseheads games live I’ve never been completely blown away.

    Yes, after watching a highlight reel of both players, I don’t see how they can be mentioned in the same breath either. Svechnikov is truly elite.

  44. Cassandra says:

    knighttown:
    So…quite a few comments about 99 and the bottle.

    I’ve met the man twice in the past 3-4 years.

    Once at Old Head golf course in Ireland and once at at bar at an airport hotel near Toronto.

    Both times he was completely wasted.I mean, high school levels of drunk you don’t often see in adults.

    Then there was the tipsy interview during the Oilers game this summer and now “red wine summits”.

    I’m way out here in Halifax and I can tell you there is zero chatter about Wayne battling the bottle so with my two run-ins I just assumed the guy was having a bit of a party, especially the golf course incident although it was before the round.

    So my question is…is this a known issue around the city?Are there whispers?

    I never hear rumours. However, Hall did a podcast with Ryan Whitney last year. It was an hour long conversation and they told a story about how Glenn Anderson was always hanging around. The plot of the story was about Hall chirping Anderson, but the kernel that came out was that eventually Lowe had to tell Anderson to stop hanging out (partying) with the young kids.

    That might not be true, but it isn’t a whisper.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilman99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Look at the centres most of these guys play with, how successful would most of them be without a centre that can’t get them the puck?

    Who’s driving Pacioretty? Hall? Tarasenko? Vorachek? Kane? Maner?

    Some of them have had good centers like Marchand and Ovi, but their results are just as good away from Bergeron and Backstrom.

    If you think its the center driving those players’ results then we do not agree.

  46. tileguy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Certainly its a difficult situation: the personal betrayals that should happen: i.e MacT/Lowe?Gretz/Coffey, etc, and all that the OBC has assembled in good faith, with good intentions by a group that had amazing experiences together is a gigantic task. The egos, sense of entitlement, lack of competence, love of the organization, loyalty to a friendly enabling owner : all jumbled together

    This is the owners mess and the reason we are the laughing stock of the league. Too bad you can’t fire the owner.

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    knighttown,

    – LT doesn’t like to discuss rumours: and I think that’s fair. I’ve posted a few things that have been taken down here: and LT was right to do so.

    – Wayne is entitled to reap the benefits of his wealth and success. And its the owner perogative to enable this and enjoy his company: what a rush it must be for Katz

    – It’s a strange dynamic for the players though, to see all this.

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cassandra,

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence that they are. There is no reason to believe that they are.

    I think this became a “norm” due to the fact that historically there have been more valuable centers than wingers.

    Some wingers are immensely valuable.

    Current NHLers include:Ovechkin, Hall, Benn, Tarasenko, Marner, Kane, Kucherov, Wheeler, Gaudreau, Kessel, Vorachek, Marchand, Stone, Pacioretty just to name a handful

    Inability to understand this is concerning.

    Do you honestly believe the winger position is more important than centre? Just because there are a bunch of great wingers out there has nothing to do with the value of the centre position. Are Ovie and Hall better than the vast majority of centres? Sure thing. But centre is a much more crucial position. They have much greater responsibilities defensively and a greater impact offensively. In general, the best players in the league play centre because going back to Pee Wee the coach plays the best players at centre.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: We have WOWYs for that.And what the WOWYs tell us is that in many cases the wingers matter more than the centers.

    For instance, Hall is Hall in all circumstances, but RNH was much better with Hall than without. Position doesn’t matter.Who is better matters.

    A simple truth.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Do you honestly believe the winger position is more important than centre?

    I didn’t say that at all.

  51. Cassandra says:

    russ99: It’s obvious that things being equal, centers are more valuable than wingers when you look at everything other than goals, The mindset of “scoring goals matter over everything else” seems to be the scourge of this fanbase.

    Obviously there’s above average wingers that are better than less than average centers.

    It is not obvious at all that centers are more valuable than wingers. Moreover, every post you make plays the same defense matters too card, when nobody, anywhere, thinks it doesn’t.

    In the very post you are responding to I specifically said that what matters is goals for and against.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: Do you honestly believe the winger position is more important than centre? Just because there are a bunch of great wingers out there has nothing to do with the value of the centre position. Are Ovie and Hall better than the vast majority of centres? Sure thing. But centre is a much more crucial position. They have much greater responsibilities defensively and a greater impact offensively.In general, the best players in the league play centre because going back to Pee Wee the coach plays the best players at centre.

    Never in the entire thread was there a discussion on which position is more important.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    It’s always to easy to look for the negative and the ground seems well trod since Chiarelli’s press avail.

    Last night was the first chance I had to watch it in its entirety and here’s some of the positives that stood out for me.

    1) He knows his players. When talking about JP, or Rattie, or Benning, there’s a level of depth and nuance to his player descriptions that I find heartening. These comments line up with what my eyes are seeing. There’s also patience which a GM has to have. If you go back and watch his comments about Pulijarvi, fantastic.

    2) I always laugh to myself when people call the Harvard grad dumb. He’s anything but. What stands out to me when I watch Chiarelli speak is a guy who’s thinking about these things on multiple levels, and he tends to be very measured in his responses as he translates his more complex internal analysis into something that’s going to work as a soundbyte for laypersons. When he talks about things like age ranges & organizational churn, puck support and how it impacts system play in all zones, and ‘pace’ as a function of decision making rather than simplistic speed, I see a GM who understands this game very very well. Many fans myopically focus on parsing his individual moves and comments, but as the presser reinforces, those are small facets of a much much larger job. This is a modern GM with a very nuanced understanding of organizational process, coaching systems, and player development imo.

    3) He gives direct answers when he can. RNH is staying. Keeping JP up now is the right call and overall he’s happy with his development process. The first round pick is in play for the right price – of course it is. He’s the one responsible for evaluating the coaches, no one else. He gets criticized for obfuscation but there’s numerous examples of candid truths on contentious subjects.

    My main takeway. If it’s up to Pete, MacLellan’s gone. If Todd’s not fired, that tells me Chia lost the power struggle and woe to us with the Red Wine Summit coming to the fore.

  54. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon:
    If they are buying out or trading a left side D this season, I could see them signing LHD Brandon Manning as cover/replacement if he is willing to sign in the $2M or less range. Would gambling on RHD Ryan Sproul make sense this summer?

    If there is one guy that will never be an Oiler it’s Manning.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If there is one guy that will never be an Oiler it’s Manning.

    Kind of like Kassian will never be an oiler?

  56. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: Do you honestly believe the winger position is more important than centre? Just because there are a bunch of great wingers out there has nothing to do with the value of the centre position. Are Ovie and Hall better than the vast majority of centres? Sure thing. But centre is a much more crucial position. They have much greater responsibilities defensively and a greater impact offensively.In general, the best players in the league play centre because going back to Pee Wee the coach plays the best players at centre.

    This is pretty funny. Reading comprehension. It is a thing.

    Anyway, you are simply wrong about this.

  57. leadfarmer says:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/article.php?id=301

    Interesting read about our Swedish prospects. Sounds like Sweden is doing a good job developing these guys for us

  58. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It reads like Nicholson wrote it:

    1) The OBC needs to shut the fuck up and let the GM do his job
    2) The GM has made some bad moves and has a season worth of rope left

    If true on Point #2, IMHO, digging a little deeper; would we conclude that PC only has a FULL year if the Oilers are in or near a Playoff Position?

    IE: If Edm starts 8-12 I think GM might get axed quickly?? Thoughts

  59. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It’s interesting to see scuttlebutt compiling that confirms Chiarelli is likely not in a position where he has carte blanche on personnel decisions.

    Clearly there would’ve been internal staff pimping for Reinhart at a point where Chiarelli didn’t have his own staff in place.

    Yep, Chiarelli should’ve ignored that, but I will always maintain that he was brought in under the mandate of getting a young D asap and when the Hamilton deal fell through, he was pressured to go with an exceedingly poor Plan B.

    – This has to be true. The two biggest “fails” that are cited for the dismissal of Chia are the Griff trade and the Hall trade

    – Bob would know what really happened, and what was the process there.

    – You have to doubt that Chia stuck his neck out and was the driver behind the Griff deal. And while I see the merits (still) of the Hall deal, again, I doubt Chia was the alone the driver of that transaction.

    – Sure at some point when Chia does get fired, those will be identified as reasons why

    – I choose to believe that Chia alone didn’t make these calls, and maybe thats convenient for me.

    – Regardless: no playoffs next year and Chia will be gone: he drew that line in sand in his presser

  60. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965,
    Woodguy v2.0,
    Cassandra,

    I do think C is a more important position to fill first. I also think that if there are two forwards who your scouts deem as being equal in skill, hockeyIQ, vision, skating, size, work ethic, etc and one is a C and one is a winger, then you pick/sign/trade-for the center every time. It gives your coach more options for creating lines. It is more likely a C can play wing than a wing play C and I think quality Cs are more difficult to find.

  61. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: This is pretty funny.Reading comprehension.It is a thing.

    Anyway, you are simply wrong about this.

    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/center/
    This season 32 centers had a cap hit of 6 mil or more and 48 had a cap hit of 5 mil or more

    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/cap-hit/left-wing/
    This season 13 LW had a cap hit of 6mil or more and 27 of 5 mil or more

    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/cap-hit/right-wing/
    This season 11 RW had a cap hit of 6 mil or more and and 22 had a cap hit of 5 mil or more.

    Simple answer. Centers are worth more than wingers. Quite a bit more given that there are twice as many wingers as centers

  62. Melman says:

    It’s fascinating that someone who has been as successful as Katz has been in business would allow his team to be run as poorly as it has for as long as has been done. I get the whole “it makes money, the new arena was the win” argument, but fundamentally people as successful in business as Katz has been deeply hate to lose. Maybe he is the anomaly in that he is the lonely tycoon who doesn’t have an ego and would rather provide jobs to his buddies than have a winning team, but it’s weird/curious thing.

  63. Melman says:

    jtblack,

    An 8-12 start would normally give cause for termination of your GM (when added to this year’s debacle). Normal and Oilers management do not go together. Sadly, the Oilers are in the same sandbox as the Sabres, Browns and Hornets.

  64. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    JimmyV1965,

    Do you honestly believe the winger position is more important than centre?

    I didn’t say that at all.

    To be fair, Jimmy never said you said that, they asked if you truly believed it.

  65. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra,

    – Some wingers are better than some centres. Some wingers are the best players on their teams

    – Having grown up playing hockey: the most talented players are put at C, from a young age (not always, but mostly). The reason for this is that even at a young age, they want the best player distributing the puck, carrying the puck, playing in the middle, they skate the best, they are the smartest players so they have the most options, and dictate the most

    – This is different than saying Hall is not better than Seguin becasue one is a C

    – All things being equal, you would rather have the best C in the league with complementary wingers. Some wingers though like Hall and Ovie for instance: they drive lines

    – So when someone says that C’s are the most important position: this is not a universal truth, as many wingers are game-changers and very good players as well.

    – It’s the same argument in football: is it the QB, or his WR’s/TE’s/RB’s that matter most? A great WR makes the QB better.

    – But sometimes you get Montana Rice: and things go to another level or Gretz/Kurri…

  66. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer: http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/center/
    This season 32 centers had a cap hit of 6 mil or more and 48 had a cap hit of 5 mil or more

    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/cap-hit/left-wing/
    This season 13 LW had a cap hit of 6mil or moreand 27 of 5 mil or more

    http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/cap-hit/right-wing/
    This season 11 RW had a cap hit of 6 mil or more and and 22 had a cap hit of 5 mil or more.

    Simple answer.Centers are worth more than wingers.Quite a bit more given that there are twice as many wingers as centers

    This proves that centers as a class are paid more than wingers as a class. It doens’t prove that the position of center determines on-ice results more than the position of wing, which was assertion.

    Even if it were true that players were paid for their on-ice value, the supposition that more good players play center is not inconsistent with my proposition that the center position is not inherently more valuable.

  67. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It’s always to easy to look for the negative and the ground seems well trod since Chiarelli’s press avail.

    Last night was the first chance I had to watch it in its entirety and here’s some of the positives that stood out for me.

    1) He knows his players. When talking about JP, or Rattie, or Benning, there’s a level of depth and nuance to his player descriptions that I find heartening. These comments line up with what my eyes are seeing. There’s also patience which has a GM has to have. If you go back and watch his comments about Pulijarvi, fantastic.

    2) I always laugh to myself when people call the Harvard grad dumb. He’s anything but. What stands out to me when I watch Chiarelli speak is a guy who’s thinking about these things on multiple levels, and he tends to be very measured in his responses as he translates his more complex internal analysis into something that’s going to work as a soundbyte for laypersons. When he talks about things like age ranges & organizational churn, puck support and how it impacts system play in all zones, and ‘pace’ as a function of decision making rather than simplistic speed, I see a GM who understands this game very very well. Many fans myopically focus on parsing his individual moves and comments, but as the presser reinforces, those are small facets of a much much larger job. This is a modern GM with a very nuanced understanding of organizational process, coaching systems, and player development imo.

    3) He gives direct answers when he can. RNH is staying. Keeping JP up now is the right call and overall he’s happy with his development process. The first round pick is in play for the right price – of course it is. He’s the one responsible for evaluating the coaches, no one else. He gets criticized for obfuscation but there’s numerous examples of candid truths on contentious subjects.

    My main takeway. If it’s up to Pete, MacLellan’s gone. If Todd’s not fired, that tells me Chia lost the power struggle and woe to us with the Red Wine Summit coming to the fore.

    This is a good reasonable assessment of Peter.

    He is not dumb. He does have understanding. He can assess needs. And perhaps he is excellent at the rest of his duties.

    The issue of course lies with his solutions to those needs. His actions/lack of action. Talent assessment. Assigning appropriate value to players both in negotiating trades and contracts.

  68. rstahl says:

    Cassandra,

    Thats why the Taylor Hall and Ryan Smyth at center experiments turned out so well, and the RNH/ Patrick Marleau/ 3014

  69. Cassandra says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The analogy with football doesn’t work. Positions in football are more defined than in hockey. In which case it is answerable which position is more important.

    In hockey, and specifically within the forward ranks, positions are fluid. Hence, I don’t accept your definitions. We’ve been over this. Outside of the defensive zone there are no positions. You play as F1, F2, and F3. Inside the defensive zone you will often have some sort of defined positional responsibility, however these responsibilities rotate depending on circumstance. The old days of the winger going up and down the ice are over.

    We need to stop thinking in terms of positions. It isn’t how the game is played.

  70. rstahl says:

    Cassandra,
    That’s why the Taylor Hall and Ryan Smyth at center experiments turned out so well.

    And why the RNH, Patrick Marleau, and 2014 Canada Men’s Olympic Roster playing centres as wingers experiments failed so spectacularly.

  71. jtblack says:

    I have been beating this drum for a while now. Possible 2nd round target for Edmonton.

    RHD: 17 Year Old Calen Addison has 13 Points in 9 Playoff games. 32 Shots. Effortless skater and passer. The only D man ahead of him in the playoffs is 2016 – 1st rounder, 19 yr old, Jake Bean (14 pts).

    Addison could be a steal.

  72. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cassandra,

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence that they are. There is no reason to believe that they are.

    I think this became a “norm” due to the fact that historically there have been more valuable centers than wingers.

    Some wingers are immensely valuable.

    Current NHLers include:Ovechkin, Hall, Benn, Tarasenko, Marner, Kane, Kucherov, Wheeler, Gaudreau, Kessel, Vorachek, Marchand, Stone, Pacioretty just to name a handful

    Inability to understand this is concerning.

    Every team in the league plays the same system, where the center supports defenseman below the defensive goal line on both sides of the net.
    And they are the second forechecker to commit to go below the other teams face off dot to support.

    So they touch or don’t touch the puck at critical spots on the ice. Centers create the 2 on 1 (both for and against) more than any other position how that translates to WOWY, I am not sure.

    I also think that it took Driasaitl more than half the season to demonstrate he was committed to this team system, so he stayed on RW. Lots of comments about, cheating for offense, individual play and during the year I think Todd talked about Leon skating for the team vs. himself (think I have that right)

  73. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: This proves that centers as a class are paid more than wingers as a class.It doens’t prove that the position of center determines on-ice results more than the position of wing, which was assertion.

    Even if it were true that players were paid for their on-ice value, the supposition that more good players play center is not inconsistent with my proposition that the center position is not inherently more valuable.

    Not inherently. 2 very different positions. Your asking for some arbitrary value assignment for position that doesnt exist. But overall centers are felt to be more valuable than wingers and are paid as such

  74. Bobcaygeon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It reads like Nicholson wrote it:

    1) The OBC needs to shut the fuck up and let the GM do his job
    2) The GM has made some bad moves and has a season worth of rope left

    Doesn’t this have a real Boston feel to it? Like how it all broke the minute Chiarelli was let go in Boston?
    Weird..

  75. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: We have WOWYs for that.And what the WOWYs tell us is that in many cases the wingers matter more than the centers.

    For instance, Hall is Hall in all circumstances, but RNH was much better with Hall than without. Position doesn’t matter.Who is better matters.

    No offence, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Just because there are wingers that are much better than most centres in the league doesn’t mean the winger position is as important as centre. Hall is one of the best players in the league because he is more skilled than the vast majority of players in the league. You can’t then make the leap of logic that winger is just as important as centre. It’s simply not the case. I don’t even know what stats have to do with it. Centres have more responsibilities than wingers, before and after the face off. Just because some centres have worse advanced stats than others doesn’t change the importance of the position.

  76. HALFWALL says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agree with the sentiment here.

    Also, too many Oiler fans (and media dudes) focus on the high profile pro trade/roster decisions he has made and have forgotten the truly horrible scorched earth of NHL, AHL, prospect and drafting depth/balance PC inherited.

    He has to own the consequences of the value-leaking pro-decisions he has made. However, his hand at negotiating table was forced in part by the dearth of assets at his disposal and gaping holes in the NHL and AHL rosters that are only starting to be filled now.

  77. Cassandra says:

    Now it is true that you can hide someone with liabilities, especially skating liabilities, at wing better than at center. However, this doesn’t mean that centers are inherently doing more than wingers, it means that that player is a liability.

    So one of the things that is supposed to be true is that the center comes low and slow for breakouts and regroups, and you definitely need someone who can skate while handling and distributing the puck doing this job. However, this person doesn’t need to be the center and on teams with skilled wingers, it often isn’t.

    So you almost never see Lucic doing this, but you will often see Hall doing it, even though they nominally play the same position.

    So instead of giving them the same position name, we should have names that reflect what actually happens. I propose puck handler/distributor/driver for the Hall types, while pylon should suffice for the Lucic types.

    Simply going with the old stand by of wing or center doesn’t describe what actually happens.

  78. Woogie63 says:

    Cassandra:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The analogy with football doesn’t work.Positions in football are more defined than in hockey.In which case it is answerable which position is more important.

    In hockey, and specifically within the forward ranks, positions are fluid.Hence, I don’t accept your definitions.We’ve been over this.Outside of the defensive zone there are no positions.You play as F1, F2, and F3.Inside the defensive zone you will often have some sort of defined positional responsibility, however these responsibilities rotate depending on circumstance.The old days of the winger going up and down the ice are over.

    We need to stop thinking in terms of positions.It isn’t how the game is played.

    This right and imo wrong. Yes we are in a F1, F2, F3 world, but these forward are tasked to create 2-1 to your team’s advantage. The center in every coach and players mind is most often the second support player.

  79. Doug McLachlan says:

    Jaxon:
    If they are buying out or trading a left side D this season, I could see them signing LHD Brandon Manning as cover/replacement if he is willing to sign in the $2M or less range. Would gambling on RHD Ryan Sproul make sense this summer?

    As regards Manning, hope the leftorium is culled a little lower in the depth chart than where he would factor in. Also, F**k that guy. He was responsible for costing McDavid the Calder and as a result Hall was traded and everything bad happened and (expletive filled Red Wine rant)….

    As for Sproul, I like it.

    LT was talking up Sproul about a year ago when he was in the Red Wings’ system. Finished up with the Rangers. I would be very interested in looking at him as an obstacle for a premature Bear sighting – essentially in the Eric Gryba p/t third-pairing guy with some offensive pop.

    Scored 10 goals with the Wolf Pack (Rangers farm team) this year so it’s a legit option.

    Would expect that the Rangers were impressed with his performance this year and may resign him before July 1st but we will see.

    For reference: Cap friendly https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-sproul
    and Hockeydb http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=125416

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    JimmyV1965,

    Do you honestly believe the winger position is more important than centre?

    I didn’t say that at all.

    But you quoted this comment:

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence that they are. There is no reason to believe that they are.

    And then you listed reasons supporting this assertion.

  81. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: No offence, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Just because there are wingers that are much better than most centres in the league doesn’t mean the winger position is as important as centre. Hall is one of the best players in the league because he is more skilled than the vast majority of players in the league. You can’t then make the leap of logic that winger is just as important as centre. It’s simply not the case. I don’t even know what stats have to do with it. Centres have more responsibilities than wingers, before and after the face off. Just because some centres have worse advanced stats than others doesn’t change the importance of the position.

    That you don’t understand something does not make it ridiculous. It simply means you don’t understand.

    Goals for and against is the dependent variable.

    The question is what are the independent variables that explain variations in the dependent variable.

    Your hypothesis is that some positions explain more of the variation than others.

    This hypothesis is not supported by the empirical evidence.

    My hypothesis is that talent, regardless of position, explains the variation.

    This hypothesis is supported by the empirical evidence.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: This is pretty funny.Reading comprehension.It is a thing.

    Anyway, you are simply wrong about this.

    This is what you said:

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers.There is no evidence that they are.There is no reason to believe that they are.

    Before you trash my reading comprehension skills, can you tell me please how I misinterpreted this.

  83. Cassandra says:

    JimmyV1965: But you quoted this comment:

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence that they are. There is no reason to believe that they are.

    And then you listed reasons supporting this assertion.

    Honestly, go back and read it again. These two statements are not equivalent.

    1) Centers are not more valuable than wingers.
    2) Wingers are more valuable than centers.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    anjinsan:
    “I’m here today to tell you that the President and General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers, Peter Chiarelli, will be the (president and) general manager next year,” began Nicholson. “I really believe in his plan. Over the last number of months, we’ve been meeting with a lot of our season ticket holders. There’s anger and disappointment of where we ended up. We certainly understand where they are. We will have a plan coming out here in the near future of how we’re going forward.”

    I truly believed Chiarelli was going to be genius and constitute a great team for years given the luck and fantastic depth in the ’15 draft.

    But he botched it in his very first move.

    He is willful.We’re three years into his plan.His past performance was repeated these last three years.The team is hamstrung by his contracts and asset losses.Gott im Himmel!

    The only possible plan he can have is to trade away the future for pennies on the dollar for players now.I’m sure GMs are lining up to the trough.

    Someone else like Cheveldayoff would not have botched the opportunity.

    Nobody can do a good job in Edmonton while things are as they have always been. There is a recognizable pattern and despite Nicholson Chiarelli McLellan it remains the same.

    I was surprised, I took them at their word – as Swedish mentioned PC saying he had final say etc.

    Unless he thinks exactly the way Lowe does, something is still influencing decisions. I would like to know who the two dissenters were mentioned here on the Hall trade someone mentioned here. It wouldn’t surprise me if PC was one of them.

    I would bet that this latest bit of angst from OEG is directly related to that bum Hall killing it this year. Maybe that was enough for Katz to get pissed about pissing away high end value, yet again.

    He can’t have become as rich as he is getting his ass handed to him in deals. He must have noticed at least that one, it being so tangible.

    Reinhart was just as bad or worse, but picks are harder to see.

  85. godot10 says:

    Jaxon:
    If they are buying out or trading a left side D this season, I could see them signing LHD Brandon Manning as cover/replacement if he is willing to sign in the $2M or less range. Would gambling on RHD Ryan Sproul make sense this summer?

    The OIlers have Matt Benning and Ethan Bear for 3rd pairing RD. Why would they need Sproul? The goal is someone better than Kris Russell or Matt Benning (or Sekera) for 2nd pairing RD.

    Brandon Manning…really…I think Connor has a longer memory than a goldfish. If one is signing Brandon Manning for $2 million, then there is no point to buying out anyone, since one is not saving any money.

    One is only buying out Sekera or Russell if one finds a better 2nd pairing right D.

  86. Wayne Kenov says:

    On the C-W thing.

    1- The best players typically play centre from novice all the way up. I think it has to do with faceoffs being fun.

    2- Center is a different position than wing in terms of defensive positioning, but that doesn’t necessarily make it harder, and depending on the system it could be easier. It isn’t like the winger gets to sit in the corner with his finger up his arse, or cherry pick at the top of the zone (CMD). This is irrelevant here imo.

    3- A good player is a good player regardless of position. Kane isn’t expendable because of Toews. There are plenty of players who drive play from the wing. This is particularly true if you look at junior, but it is also relevant in the bigs. If this weren’t true, you would draft 100 C before taking a W.

    4- 100 players in the NHL make 5.75mil+ (In Cap hit-no idea why a fan would care about salary unless campaigning for buyout or trade). Of that 36 are C, 16LW, 14RW, 22 D, and 12 G. On average, the C made 7.1. The wingers 6.9. The number is heavily inflated at the top end, with the Kopitar contract accounting for 100k in the average.

    5- 2C make 10+, 1 9+, 7 8+, 6 7+. 15 6+, 5 5.75+.
    2W make 10+, 1 9+, 3 8+, 5 7+. 14 6+, 5 5.75+.
    I don’t see anything there that tells me that top end C are more expensive than top wing. Proportions for 8 mil may be slightly higher for C.

    6- Of those 100 top paid C, C averaged 58.5pts, wing averaged 58.53pts. C averaged 21.2 goals, and W averaged 23 goals. C averaged 37.3 assists, and wing averaged 35.5 assists. That is not a huge difference in performance. Some would say statistically insignificant.

    So I see no difference between paying a top C and a top W. There seems to be value to either. Unless we get into magic stats (which hockey guys love to do) about 200ft game. I’m sure someone has the fancy stats more readily available than I.

  87. Cassandra says:

    Woogie63: This right and imo wrong.Yes we are in a F1, F2, F3 world, but these forward are tasked to create 2-1 to your team’s advantage.The center in every coach and players mind is most often the second support player.

    I don’t think this is true, but even if it were in most cases it is the job of F2 to drive the net. The most important players in this scenario are F1 (playmaker) and F3 (finisher).

    And if you mean that the center is most often F3, well I think that is plainly false. If you do a standard breakout by positions the winger on the boards passes to the center, and the center passes to the weak side winger, so that the strong side winger becomes F3, the center becomes F2, and the weak side winger becomes F1.

    But this is all meaningless because there is enough movement that all forwards are all three, depending on circumstances.

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    As I see it, the Oilers don’t need offense nearly as much as defense. The need at forward is players that can help the skill do what they do best and score some, provide support.

    Even if Hoffman came and scored 30 on the top line, would Connor’s line have a better goal diff or worse? That is what matters.

    If your best players have to do the dirty work it’s bass ackwards. Veterans that can do normal NHL hockey things and keep up is the need with so many young players and more coming each year. Kurri did the dirty work so Wayne could cheat for offense and do his thing.

    Connor needs that, not another half assed scorer that isn’t great at the details, which is how I see Rattie. I don’t know if they can find and sign or acquire that player, but they are out there and not expensive. If they can’t just put JP there and leave him, he is a far better player than Ty.

    And get a goalie that can stop pucks and handle more than 8 games reliably.

  89. Woogie63 says:

    If you work in an organization and you don’t have the biggest corner office you don’t have the final say, I don’t care if your title is Président.

  90. Woogie63 says:

    Cassandra: I don’t think this is true, but even if it were in most cases it is the job of F2to drive the net.Themost important players in this scenario are F1 (playmaker) and F3 (finisher).

    And if you mean that the center is most often F3, well I think that is plainly false.If you do a standard breakout by positions the winger on the boards passes to the center, and the center passes to the weak side winger, so that the strong side winger becomes F3, the center becomes F2, and the weak side winger becomes F1.

    But this is all meaningless because there is enough movement that all forwards are all three, depending on circumstances.

    My sarcasm radar might be off but you know the center is not F3?

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: The OIlers have Matt Benning and Ethan Bear for 3rd pairing RD.Why would they need Sproul?The goal is someone better than Kris Russell or Matt Benning (or Sekera)for 2nd pairing RD.

    Brandon Manning…really…I think Connor has a longer memory than a goldfish.If one is signing Brandon Manning for $2 million, then there is no point to buying out anyone, since one is not saving any money.

    One is only buying out Sekera or Russell if one finds a better 2nd pairing right D.

    If they can’t win the Cup next year I am against buyouts. They are for expired players, neither Sekera or Russell are. Pouliot wasn’t either – far too expensive but they didn’t use the cap anyway and now that move hampers forward progress.

    I don’t think they will win the Cup next year, and it is critical to get value for good players to keep the system churning. Wait a year and trade them both, and get value for them. There are better D available then as well. Crickets at the moment without a major trade, that likely will just mean moving a hole in the roster to a different spot.

    For me a healthy Sekera Klef Larsson is enough improvement back end for one year.

  92. Wolfie says:

    Too many cooks in the kitchen. When there are too many voices and ideas pulling in different directions you go nowhere.

    I don’t trust Chiarelli to make the right decisions given his track record. Living in Winnipeg and seeing the stark differences in how the Jets conduct business and how the Oilers go about theirs is sobering.

    The Jets wandered in the desert for a bit since coming to Winnipeg but the underlying theme has been patience. No robbing Peter to pay Paul. Draft and develop. Stay the course. Believe in your prospects. Proper support with little rush.

    The Oilers are in such a hurry to “recapture” the glory days that they keep looking for quick fixes. It hasn’t worked in the past and it won’t work now.

    Kids with inexperience are still playing above their established level of ability. Scheifele wasn’t rushed. Ehlers and Laine both had protection with the likes of Wheeler, Little, Perreault, Ladd, Stafford…

    The Oilers keep throwing away mid career guys and replacing them with kids. Stop the insanity!

  93. SkatinginSand says:

    As much as I hate to agree with Sassy Cassie, the concept of centres being inherently more valuable than wingers is mostly based on traditional hockey tactics. Everyone played a 2-1-2 zone defense, the centre was responsible for support down low and the low slot when the puck was high. Wingers only had to move from the point to the high slot.
    Unless you had a dman named Bobby, virtually every breakout went through the centre. He would then get it through the neutral zone and distribute. The left wing lock was an actual strategy.
    Now, it has all changed .Unless you play for Randy Carlyle, as Cassandra has stated, forwards play a 1,2,3 system in the offensive zone. In many NHL zone defenses, what position you play is dependent on when you get into the zone, not your assigned position.
    Sorry Woogie, there are as many teams that play man to man in their end (including good teams like Washington and Nashville) or swarm as play straight zone defense. In either defense, winger responsibilities are as great as centre.
    The only place where position matters is on set plays, like faceoffs. Even then when Connor and Leon were together, who took the faceoffs?

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra: I don’t think this is true, but even if it were in most cases it is the job of F2to drive the net.Themost important players in this scenario are F1 (playmaker) and F3 (finisher).

    And if you mean that the center is most often F3, well I think that is plainly false.If you do a standard breakout by positions the winger on the boards passes to the center, and the center passes to the weak side winger, so that the strong side winger becomes F3, the center becomes F2, and the weak side winger becomes F1.

    But this is all meaningless because there is enough movement that all forwards are all three, depending on circumstances.

    I think F1 2 3 has a lot more to do with defensive assignments than offensive. F 1 is first forward back etc.

  95. Cassandra says:

    Woogie63: My sarcasm radar might be off but you know the center is not F3?

    What is going on today with the reading?

  96. Doug McLachlan says:

    Jaxon:
    I hope they can lure a KHL goalie as Talbot’s backup. Specifically, Pavel Francouz, although there are others.

    Really interested in other peoples thoughts of Francouz. The Euro-hero that falls on his face in North America is a well worn story – say hi to the Monster – but those are some gaudy sv% numbers.

    Among the currently expected crop of UFA goalies, I have to think that Anton Khudobin is attracting Chia’s eyeballs.

    Bernier’s resurrection this year in Colorado will probably attract some interest but with both, they may be looking for more than “back-up” $ – as they should.

    I think that Chad Johnson, who had an awful year in Buffalo, might be worth a look on a one-year show-me deal. This season was horrific but the previous year was .910 in Calgary and the year before was .920 with the Sabres. He can handle the workload minutes-wise. Seemed pretty beat down by the situation in Buffalo this year but he’s not alone. Again, if the issue is capable but with a low cap hit?

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/chad-johnson

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=69015

    Another guy that Chia may have some familiarity with is former Bruin pick and Jets limbo boy, Michael Hutchinson. Goalie of the future who never quite got there. Maybe could be our Dubnyk? Catches right? Wonder how much that messes up your D and filling lanes?

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/michael-hutchinson

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=96549

  97. godot10 says:

    Melman:
    It’s fascinating that someone who has been as successful as Katz has been in business would allow his team to be run as poorly as it has for as long as has been done.I get the whole “it makes money, the new arena was the win” argument, but fundamentally people as successful in business as Katz has been deeply hate to lose. Maybe he is the anomaly in that he is the lonely tycoon who doesn’t have an ego and would rather provide jobs to his buddies than have a winning team, but it’s weird/curious thing.

    Bill Wirtz stuck with Bob Pulford till the end. Jeremy Jacobs stuck with Harry Sinden to the end.

    I think Lowe’s level of involvement was drastically reduced when the lottery balls fell for McDavid and Bob Nicholson took over.

    But when this season went south quickly, Katz probably got angry and everybody started talking to everybody again. i.e. You guys all said Hall was the problem. Why are we here again? A significant portion of premium seating is up for renewal.

    I think Spector’s article was a little unfair to Paul Coffey. Paul Coffey was mainly sent to be eyes for other people (certainly an unpleasant task), and when he saw that he could not actively help the situation at hand, he pulled back, but he probably provided feedback to people upstairs. Remember, it was probably Paul Coffey or heads on platters in January.

    McDavid’s people are probably discreetly providing feedback to Nicholson also (and Nicholson only). McDavid would give his feedback directly to Chiarelli, but there are some things that he cannot say himself.

  98. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    As I see it, the Oilers don’t need offense nearly as much as defense. The need at forward is players that can help the skill do what they do best and score some, provide support.

    Even if Hoffman came and scored 30 on the top line, would Connor’s line have a better goal diff or worse? That is what matters.

    If your best players have to do the dirty work it’s bass ackwards. Veterans that can do normal NHL hockey things and keep up is the need with so many young players and more coming each year. Kurri did the dirty work so Wayne could cheat for offense and do his thing.

    Connor needs that, not another half assed scorer that isn’t great at the details, which is how I see Rattie. I don’t know if they can find and sign or acquire that player, but they are out there and not expensive. If they can’t just put JP there and leave him, he is a far better player than Ty.

    And get a goalie that can stop pucks and handle more than 8 games reliably.

    McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins >> >> than McDavid and Hoffman. Hoffman doesn’t bring much other than a shot. Nugent-Hopkins will score more goals with McDavid than Hoffman would. And McDavid will score more goals with Nugent-Hopkins than with Hoffman.

  99. godot10 says:

    I don’t understand the obsession with backup goaltenders that McLellan is never going to play.

    How is a European goaltender coming to the NHL going to be able to adjust sitting on the bench playing 10 games…which is McLellan’s modus operandi.

    Montoya is used to that job and is reasonably good at it. If McLellan is coming back, backup goaltender is not a priority.

  100. frjohnk says:

    godot10: McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins >> >> than McDavid and Hoffman.Hoffman doesn’t bring much other than a shot. Nugent-Hopkins will score more goals with McDavid than Hoffman would.And McDavid will score more goals with Nugent-Hopkins than with Hoffman.

    McDavid and Malkin have played 83% of the Pens games since Malkin entered the league.

    I hope McDavid and Drai play more than what Crosby and Malkin have played but they will get injured and miss time.

    Oilers need cover at center for when McDavid or Draisaitl go down to injury as it will happen.

    RNH is that guy.

  101. Eh Team says:

    Melman:

    Melman says:

    April 13, 2018 at 10:19 am

    It’s fascinating that someone who has been as successful as Katz has been in business would allow his team to be run as poorly as it has for as long as has been done

    I’m no fan of Chiarelli but I can’t believe anyone would want the OBC back in charge. Look how dismal the track record was and the state of the team when Chiarelli took over (the 50 man roster). Whether Chiarelli is the answer, I don’t know, but the OBC certainly isn’t.

    What the Oilers need is someone who can evaluate players. They are getting killed on player evaluation. It looks like the draft process is much better so that gives hope, but we are bleeding guys who can help- Pitlick, Osterle, Slepy, for nothing in addition to the larger trades where we are losing value.

    Even exercising some basic risk management. Talbot struggles, where’s a viable option in place? Sekera- lost year, but no planned replacement. 2017 was essentially an injury free year, you can’t expect that in a normal year. You need to have contingency plans in place.

  102. Woogie63 says:

    Cassandra: What is going on today with the reading?

    Fair

    You did say most often F3.

    I jumped to the conclusion at the NHL if your center is MOST often F3, you are not an NHL centerman.
    That team would be creamed.

    I think this is part of the reason Leon spent longer at wing than most fans wanted this year.

  103. OmJo says:

    JimmyV1965: Nice to see you back OP. Just like the Oil can use some balance, so can this comment section.

    I really dislike the idea of keeping Tmac and firing some assistants. It seems like such a half-assed move.It would be different if Tmac recognized the need to change assistants and did it himself.Foisting change on the coach doesn’t seem like a good way to deal with the problem.

    Ryan Rishaug asked a good question yesterday.Would any team hire any of our coaches should they be released? That includes assistants and the AHL. I’m not even sure Tmac would get a HC gig at this point.

    If Eakins can get a coaching job after his tenure in the NHL, in North America mind you, TMac should be safe in the case he does get fired.

  104. Pink Socks says:

    Good grief. If Taylor Hall had a twin, both with the exact same skillset, exact same goal output and defensive ability, and one was a LW and one was a C, and the 2010 draft was Taylor vs Taylor’s twin, the C would get picked first, the LW would be picked second.

    All of Cassandra, Jimmy, and WG are correct, you are arguing semantics. The C is more valuable because of additional responsiblities. Of course hockey is a fluid game. Sometimes the LW is supporting in the defensive zone because the C got trapped, or whatever other variable you want to insert.

    Centers have more value because of their responsibility, but in no way does this suggest that Ryan Strome is more valuable that Jordan Eberle. All teams want the big C driving a line, and all teams want the star LW driving another line.

    Best players are the most important aspect, but at the same time, a team can’t have only wingers. Balance is a thing.

  105. Tapdog says:

    Cassandra: That you don’t understand something does not make it ridiculous.It simply means you don’t understand.

    Goals for and against is the dependent variable.

    The question is what are the independent variables that explain variations in the dependent variable.

    Your hypothesis is that some positions explain more of the variation than others.

    This hypothesis is not supported by the empirical evidence.

    My hypothesis is that talent, regardless of position, explains the variation.

    This hypothesis is supported by the empirical evidence.

    Great but is the “Force” strong within them?

    I jest 🙂 I just could not help myself.

    Please continue to fail at pushing the other off their position.
    Enjoy 🙂

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: But you quoted this comment:

    Centers are not more valuable than wingers. There is no evidence that they are. There is no reason to believe that they are.

    And then you listed reasons supporting this assertion.

    Apparently I wasn’t clear.

    I even got an email from someone who lurks here telling me why the center position is more important.

    It was never my assertion that the winger position was more important than the center position.

    The assumption that a winger will *always* be more valuable AS AN INDIVIDUAL than a center is wrong and it doesn’t take much consideration to see that this is right.

    The center plays a tougher position that is more involved in the play. That’s not up for debate.

    If a center is not a F1 in the dzone because they weren’t first back, most teams employ a switch so the C does become the F1 when he get low in the dzone.

    That a center will *always* be more valuable than a winger to a team simply because of their position is false.

    Lots of wingers drive scoring differential much better than centers on their team, including the centers that they play with.

  107. OmJo says:

    Cassandra: You are exaggerating how much positions matter on the ice.Hockey is a fluid game, and any tactical system is going to require that players play according to their position on the ice at that moment in time, not where they lined up for the faceoff.

    In any case, if center really were more important it would show up in things like WOWYs.It doesn’t, therefore we know it isn’t more important.

    What matters is goals for and against, and there is no evidence that who is playing center has a larger effect on goals for and against than who is playing wing.What the evidence indicates is that the best players, regardless of position, have the largest effect on goals for and against.

    If centres were more important than wingers we’d probably be in the playoffs right now.

    Edit: what I mean by this is you need both, not just one or the other. Having good C and crap Ws means finishing with lottery draft odds.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: If true on Point #2, IMHO, digging a little deeper;would we conclude that PC only has a FULL year if the Oilers are in or near a Playoff Position?

    IE: If Edm starts 8-12 I think GM might get axed quickly?? Thoughts

    I have no idea.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo: If centres were more important than wingers we’d probably be in the playoffs right now.

    Because Dmen and the goalie are more important than both is the reason the Oilers finished where they did.

  110. Doug McLachlan says:

    Cassandra:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The analogy with football doesn’t work.Positions in football are more defined than in hockey.In which case it is answerable which position is more important.

    In hockey, and specifically within the forward ranks, positions are fluid.Hence, I don’t accept your definitions.We’ve been over this.Outside of the defensive zone there are no positions.You play as F1, F2, and F3.Inside the defensive zone you will often have some sort of defined positional responsibility, however these responsibilities rotate depending on circumstance.The old days of the winger going up and down the ice are over.

    We need to stop thinking in terms of positions.It isn’t how the game is played.

    I think that you are right about the F1, F2, F3 discussion.

    I am a bit of a dinosaur, any good (and fairly quick) read on looking at hockey x’s and o’s with the F1, F2, F3 set up that you could direct me to?

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bobcaygeon: Doesn’t this have a real Boston feel to it? Like how it all broke the minute Chiarelli was let go in Boston?
    Weird..

    I’m not familiar with what you are referring to when you say “how it all broke the minute ….”

    Do you have a link or Coles Notes on it?

  112. Andy Dufresne says:

    Prediction

    Members of Oilers Coaching staff (not TMac) will be let go. Some including Woodcroft will be offered jobs elsewhere in the organization. Including Bakerfield.

  113. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10:
    I don’t understand the obsession with backup goaltenders that McLellan is never going to play.

    How is a European goaltender coming to the NHL going to be able to adjust sitting on the bench playing 10 games…which is McLellan’s modus operandi.

    Montoya is used to that job and is reasonably good at it.If McLellan is coming back, backup goaltender is not a priority.

    I suspect the preoccupation with back-up goaltending comes from a different assessment of McLellan. I, and others, believe that McLellan will play a back-up he has confidence in and not play one he doesn’t.

    If you are correct, then yes the discussion is moot.

    If we others are correct, then the discussion is very much on point.

  114. OmJo says:

    leadfarmer: Simple answer. Centers are worth more than wingers. Quite a bit more given that there are twice as many wingers as centers

    There are twice as many wingers as centres but there are twice as many winger positions as centre positions.

  115. Jaxon says:

    godot10:
    I don’t understand the obsession with backup goaltenders that McLellan is never going to play.

    How is a European goaltender coming to the NHL going to be able to adjust sitting on the bench playing 10 games…which is McLellan’s modus operandi.

    Montoya is used to that job and is reasonably good at it.If McLellan is coming back, backup goaltender is not a priority.

    I wouldn’t solely be searching for a backup. Talbot is going into the final year of his contract and there isn’t a suitable replacement in the system yet. It doesn’t appear that Brossoit will be taking over. Ellis? Maybe. Starret? Wells? Maybe, but they’re further off than Ellis. A goalie like Francouz could conceivably come in and challenge fairly soon and they could decide on who to go with next summer. Plus, it would give them leverage when negotiating Talbot’s next contract. If Talbot has a decent but not great season and they don’t have a reliable backup/future replacement, then Talbot can name his price and the Oilers will have to overpay a player, yet again.

  116. Doug McLachlan says:

    OmJo: If Eakins can get a coaching job after his tenure in the NHL, in North America mind you, TMac should be safe in the case he does get fired.

    Prior to Blashill being re-upped, I read that TMac was seen as a possible target. My sense is that part of Blashill’s vote of confidence came from the smoke signals out of Edmonton that TMac would survive any purge here in Edmonton.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon:
    I think in any other year, Svechnikov would be mentioned as a close-to-generational player. His 5-on-5 goals/minute is the highest number by a large margin to come out of Canadian junior in the last 15 years.

    This stats shows NHL expected equivalency adjusted (based on Vollman’s new #s) 5-on-5 goals per 14.25 minutes over 82 games (top 6 median 5-on-5 ice time)

    17.25 Andrei Svechnikov
    14.00 Connor McDavid
    14.00 Patrick Kane
    13.26 Sidney Crosby
    12.41 John Tavares
    12.09 Alex DeBrincat
    12.03 Jonathan Drouin
    11.96 Robby Fabbri

    Zadina isn’t even in the top 80, so I’m not sure how they get mentioned as interchangeable at #2 & #3 by some people. I can buy Dahlin being better than Svechnikov as he is seen as a generational D (the next Lidstrom) and it is more difficult to compare D to F, but Svechnikov could be far and away the best sniper in the next 10 years. If Edmonton picks at #1, they pick Dahlin although I wouldn’t be upset to get Svechnikov at #1. If they pick#2, they pick Svechnikov for sure. If Edmonton picks #3 and Svechnikov is still available because someone stupidly picked Zadina, then Edmonton can thank the draft gods once again and pick Svechnikov. If Svechnikov is gone at #3, I wouldn’t mind them trading down and maybe adding to their pick (#3 + Caleb Jones? +?) to NYI for #10 & #12 and grabbing Veleno and Merkley. (this was suggested by ArmchairGM originally).

    My only worry is players from there and the Oilers. They can’t seem to deal with them properly, it’s basically wasting a pick most often. His talent might make it different.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Spector is on Bob’s show at 1:30.

    Should make for interesting listening.

  119. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Who’s driving Pacioretty? Hall? Tarasenko? Vorachek? Kane? Maner?

    Some of them have had good centers like Marchand and Ovi, but their results are just as good away from Bergeron and Backstrom.

    If you think its the center driving those players’ results then we do not agree.

    Doesnt contradict what you said…..but scarcity, supply and demand come into play.

    Would be interesting to know % of wingers who are drivers vs % of centers who are drivers.

    It seems intuitive that % wise it would be centers. But how big is the gap?

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Having grown up playing hockey: the most talented players are put at C, from a young age (not always, but mostly). The reason for this is that even at a young age, they want the best player distributing the puck, carrying the puck, playing in the middle, they skate the best, they are the smartest players so they have the most options, and dictate the most

    This is the most important point.

    The best players usually play center because the best players start playing center from an early age.

    Therefore most of the best players are centers.

    This is much, much, much, much different than stating centers are more important than wingers. (not saying that you are saying this Kinger, just using your post because its true and succinct)

  121. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Spector is on Bob’s show at 1:30.

    Should make for interesting listening.

    Will be interesting. Spector will restate his case. Stauffer will say hes wrong.

    The interesing part will be how anitmated will it get. Grab your popcorn!

  122. Woogie63 says:

    NHL center cover 17,000ish sq feet of ice,
    NHL wing cover 8400ish sq feet of ice

  123. OmJo says:

    godot10:
    I don’t understand the obsession with backup goaltenders that McLellan is never going to play.

    How is a European goaltender coming to the NHL going to be able to adjust sitting on the bench playing 10 games…which is McLellan’s modus operandi.

    Montoya is used to that job and is reasonably good at it.If McLellan is coming back, backup goaltender is not a priority.

    Agreed. Why would a backup goaltender in general sign with this team is McLellan is coach?

  124. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woogie63:
    NHL center cover 17,000ish sq feet of ice,
    NHL wing cover 8400ish sq feet of ice

    Tell that to Sam Gagner please. (kidding)

    Also…..does river pushing include/involve the defensive zone ?

  125. OmJo says:

    Pink Socks: Good grief. If Taylor Hall had a twin, both with the exact same skillset, exact same goal output and defensive ability, and one was a LW and one was a C, and the 2010 draft was Taylor vs Taylor’s twin, the C would get picked first, the LW would be picked second.

    Daniel Sedin (LW) was drafted before Henrik Sedin (C).

    Checkmate.

    (Note: said in jest)

  126. Jaxon says:

    Scungilli Slushy: My only worry is players from there and the Oilers. They can’t seem to deal with them properly, it’s basically wasting a pick most often. His talent might make it different.

    Given their history, that is a legit worry. But the margin that Svechnikov is ahead of Crosby, McDavid, Kane, Tavares and everyone else who played Canadian junior since 2004 is too striking to ignore. He scored almost 25% more goals per minute at evens than Crosby and McDavid!! Wow. Imagine him getting fed by McDavid and Nuge all season on the first line.

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    Guys, is this seriously even a question?

    What is the most valuable real estate in hockey? The slot.

    Where do the highest percentage of shots translate into goals. The slot.

    What is a C able to do that Ws cannot? Distribute the puck to either side or drive it down the middle.

    Number crunching is great, but there’s a reason that best on best tournaments like the Olympics favour Cs over Ws.

    Chiarelli says Cs are harder to get. Makes sense as theoretically there should be less Cs than Ws on the open market. Further, you can always move a C to W (e.g. Leon and Strome) whereas doing the opposite rarely occurs.

    At a certain point, I think we can safely embrace certain hypothesis as proven.

    The Montreal Canadiens would give their left nut to acquire a big talented C because they’ve been trying to do that for the better part of two decades without much luck. Meanwhile, you can buy scoring Ws as FAs pretty much every offseason. What does that tell us about the asset value of these respective positions?

  128. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t know how many times it has to be said before it is understood but centers are not the only ones who play in the middle of the ice. This is not how hockey is coached, nor is it how it is played. At any level.

  129. OmJo says:

    Andy Dufresne: Will be interesting. Spector will restate his case. Stauffer will say hes wrong.

    The interesing part will be how anitmated will it get.Grab your popcorn!

    The Oilers sure are doing a good job keeping us entertained without delivering playoff hockey!

  130. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer: Kind of like Kassian will never be an oiler?

    If he had done that to McDavid under PCs tenure, I doubt it.

    I also think McD seemed clear he thought Manning ‘s play was intentional.

    If Manning was a good player it might make a difference , but he’s not.

  131. sliderule says:

    I used to beleive that all the oiler problems started and ended at K Lowe.

    After 10 years of watching this gong show I now fear the real problem ends up at Katz’s door.

    His kids mother comes from a real good family so he probably has a good head on him

    My faint hope is he could take over as his fathers life gets more complicated

    Failing that I think we are screwed royally

  132. flea says:

    Cassandra,

    Just wondering Cassandra, what is your coaching background in hockey?

    You may have answered this in the past so I’m sorry if you have, but I was just curious seeing all your statements about how the game is coached and played.

  133. flea says:

    OmJo,

    There is no better time to be an Oilers fan than the offseason! No one offseason’s like the Oilers. always entertaining.

  134. Brantford Boy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    6) Dustin Schartz: a tough gig, but your in charge of the goalies. Sorry, need another perspective after 3 years in the helm

    Agreed… I think this is an area we should seek improvement…

    Unrelated; I was watching the Preds/Avs game last night, the woman colour commentator showed the faceoff % in the 3rd period, stating “All of Nashville’s centres have above 50% faceoffs and on the other side you can see the Avs have below 50% on the faceoffs”… I’m no math guy but move over Tyler Dellow!

    Good to see a OP ‘Fist’ post…

  135. OmJo says:

    It’s unreal the amount of drama behind the scenes of this team.

    Intrigue, betrayal, factions infighting,

    This is what Oil Change should have been!

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OmJo:
    It’s unreal the amount of drama behind the scenes of this team.

    Intrigue, betrayal, factions infighting,

    This is what Oil Change should have been!

    Katz could produce it !

  137. OmJo says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Katz could produce it !

    The first original OEG Production!

  138. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Watched some of the Avs game and I did not see Barrie good in his own end. Of course limited sample but he was chaos.

    He also seems to struggle with size. I don’t care how players get the puck, but if it isn’t with body position and contact they have to have a really good stick. Again, limited sample but what I saw the Oilers have already have in Auvitu for 800K. And Benning for under 2M we hope. Closer to 1M please.

    Good sticks is one thing the Oilers really need to get better at. Watching teams that play better, they break up far more plays knocking pucks down than most Oilers do. It’s hard to get past them. Our guys, not so much.

    ** He also got hit a ton. No wonder he gets hurt.

  139. flea says:

    Stauffer plays UB40 – Red Wine as the intro to Spector’s interview.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cassandra:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t know how many times it has to be said before it is understood but centers are not the only ones who play in the middle of the ice.This is not how hockey is coached, nor is it how it is played.At any level.

    I made about 6 points on this topic, so you’ll have to forgive if I don’t cede the argument to you over a quibble on one of them.

  141. Connoreah says:

    Regarding Center being more valuable than Winger, it’s not that complicated.

    All things being equal, a center has more value simply because that player can also play wing (see Nuge) whereas a winger likely can’t play center (see Drouin, Hall, etc. etc.).

    Ask yourself, would you rather have Nuge, or a guy who puts up the exact same stats but plays wing? Obviously the center position is more valuable.

  142. Yeti says:

    Bag of Pucks: I made about 6 points on this topic, so you’ll have to forgive if I don’t cede the argument to you over a quibble on one of them.

    To ask Cassandra for forgiveness is like asking the pope to lend you a condom.

  143. OmJo says:

    Well that was disappointing lol

  144. Cassandra says:

    flea:
    Cassandra,

    Just wondering Cassandra, what is your coaching background in hockey?

    You may have answered this in the past so I’m sorry if you have, but I was just curious seeing all your statements about how the game is coached and played.

    I coach minor hockey, and have coached under coaches who coach at the collegiate level.

    But that is beside the point since I am not arguing from authority.

    The stuff about F1, F2, and F3 is common knowledge. These are things that everyone knows.

    My conclusion of the relative value of wingers and centers is my own. Not everyone knows this. But given the fact about F1, F2, and F3, and the fact that there is no empirical evidence that centers have a larger effect on results than wingers, my conclusion is necessary.

  145. Melvis says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Watch the Vegas/LA game tonight. For the most part, Vegas plays a 2-1-2 system at a high pace through all four lines.

    You’ll see F1, F2, and F3 constantly swapping out through the 2-1 positions -strong side to weak side. The centre – winger positions, as historically noted or played, seem especially irrelevant here. They’re all constantly interchangeable.

    On D, you’ll see the “1′ scuttling back. regardless if it’s a traditional winger or centre. Thus, a three man D around their own blue line.

    All five guys are positionally aware and constantly in support of each other – at a high pace. It’s really hard to crack when properly employed.

    Did the Oilers beat them? Yeah – but short of rewatching the games or the stats, I’d hazard a guess McD beat them.

  146. Wilde says:

    Watching that video of the guys who picked up 98 and gave him a ride home, I can’t believe we sent the boy to Bakersfield, California.

  147. Dustylegnd says:

    knighttown,

    Lets just say if you needed to find Gretz in Scottsdale when the Yotes were at home, proceed to the nearest Maestro’s and you would find him at he Bar not in the restaurant, multiple multiple eye witness reports on this habit….you fill in the rest

  148. Turning Tikkanese says:

    Don’t see any major players coming via trade. Not enough depth to meet the transaction cost, can’t just rob Peter to pay Paul at this point. Cap space will keep tier one FAs off the radar too. Likely aggressive on College players and tier two FAs looking for value. As for coaches and management one or two asst coaches will be let go and replaced also luhht be a change in AHL coach but not sure. Will be an interesting October as Todd will be on short leash with Peter if a poor start and Peter on thin ice by midseason if still a poor result. Potential replacements are likely being considered as we speak as a contingency but the players are not well and publicly known until a few shoes drop…

  149. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: I coach minor hockey, and have coached under coaches who coach at the collegiate level.

    But that is beside the point since I am not arguing from authority.

    The stuff about F1, F2, and F3 is common knowledge.These are things that everyone knows.

    My conclusion of the relative value of wingers and centers is my own.Not everyone knows this.But given the fact about F1, F2, and F3, and the fact that there is no empirical evidence that centers have a larger effect on results than wingers, my conclusion is necessary.

    You make good points, I just wish you had a tone other than condescending.

    I have, as have others, raised the point that all things being equal, the C has more value because of necessary responsibility plus the ability to more easily switch to wing than a winger switching to C.

    Your assessment of F1, F2, F3 is correct, fluidity and the infinite variables in the flow of a game change the assignments of each forward constantly. That is not to state, however, that the C does not spend more time with C-related duties than wingers, just that in the flow of a game,especially long stretches without a stoppage, will result in each forward having different responsibilities during such a time.

  150. Pink Socks says:

    OmJo: Daniel Sedin (LW) was drafted before Henrik Sedin (C).

    Checkmate.

    (Note: said in jest)

    +1

  151. Pink Socks says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Katz could produce it !

    But how could one attain a starring role in such a production…. well nvm.

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Meanwhile, you can buy scoring Ws as FAs pretty much every offseason. What does that tell us about the asset value of these respective positions?

    The disconnect is you are equating scoring with driving goal differential.

    While related, they are not the same thing.

    You can get points and be a negative drag on your team mates goal differential.

    There are lots of players like this.

    Sam Gagner is the poster boy.

    Conversely you can help drive GF%, but not get as many points. Current poster boy is Radek Faska, but if you want someone more famous then Niederreiter.

    Before you say “hey, you need to score goals to win games”, while that is true you only need to score more than the other guys.

    LAK was the most recent team that won it all with low-ish goal totals. Didn’t matter as they mostly scored more than their opponents.

  153. Mustard Tiger says:

    With all the discussion of the OBC, it got me thinking, what’s the full membership of the OBC and their supposed jobs?

    Lowe (OEG business side, allegedly)
    MacT ( advisor/scout?)
    Gretzky ( ribbon cutter)
    Coffey (Defenceman coach)
    Messier (????)

    Who am I missing? It seems even worse when you actually type it out..

  154. Dustylegnd says:

    Andy Dufresne: Doesnt contradict what you said…..but scarcity, supply and demand come into play.

    Would be interesting to know % of wingers who are drivers vs % of centers who are drivers.

    It seems intuitive that % wise it would be centers. But how big is the gap?

    Seems intuitive to me that not all great players have the physical attributes best suited to play centre, or are necessarily wired to play centre…(come back deep, support the D, see the ice exceptionally well) the league does have exceptionally good wingers that drive the play…they are rare…but so are exceptional centres. Would you rather have Hall or Nuge…….Imagine Leon with Hall….I would rather have Goudreau than Monahan……and I would rather have Marchand than any other Bruin….Ovy will score with any centre that much is sure….Kane or Toews, Panarin put up more points with Columbus than he did playing with Kane…..How about Kessel lighting it up on the 3rd line…what about Blake Wheeler….lots of very exceptional wingers who are near the top in this league

  155. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: You make good points, I just wish you had a tone other than condescending.

    I have, as have others, raised the point that all things being equal, the C has more value because of necessary responsibility plus the ability to more easily switch to wing than a winger switching to C.

    Your assessment of F1, F2, F3 is correct, fluidity and the infinite variables in the flow of a game change the assignments of each forward constantly.That is not to state, however, that the C does not spend more time with C-related duties than wingers, just that in the flow of a game,especially long stretches without a stoppage, will result in each forward having different responsibilities during such a time.

    I agree with all of this. So we are approaching a meeting of the minds.

    But given this it makes no sense at all to treat wingers as fungible as Chiarelli clearly does.

    He doesn’t value them appropriately. This is what makes the blaming everything on the OBC nonsensical. Chiarelli has a long and established track record of dramatically under valuing wingers. And if you dramatically undervalue wingers you necessarily dramatically over value the other positions. Which means Chiarelli has a long and established track record of not valuing hockey players correctly.

    This isn’t something that is going to get better with time, since we have strong evidence that he doesn’t recognize this mistake.

  156. Lowetide says:

    EDM Prospect Watch

    @EDProspectWatch
    1m1 minute ago
    More
    In SHL playoff action this morning, Skellefteå (Filip Berglund) beat Djurgården (William Lagesson) 6-2, eliminating Djurgården from the playoffs (4-2). Skellefteå advances to the SHL finals and will play Växjö. Game one is Tuesday.

    Translate from Danish

  157. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I don’t disagree wirh any of this and i’m not sure how you deduced that i do from my post?

    Absolutely. Outscorers at any position have the most value. First, last and always.

    My point on free agency is you rarely see the elite Cs hit the open market as they’re simply too valuable and hard to replace.

    Elite wingers can be had in free agency cos faced with a cap crunch, most GMs will part with their Top Ws before they’ll part with their Top Cs.

    We know this as Oiler fans cos we needed 3 lottery picks to get Connor, Leon and Nuge. Lowe had whale hunted with the best of them and all he could ever land was Ws.

  158. Back 9 says:

    I don’t know how many times it has to be said before it is understood but centers are not the only ones who play in the middle of the ice.This is not how hockey is coached, nor is it how it is played.At any level.

    Maybe instead of a white board, our management uses a table hockey game.

  159. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: I agree with all of this.So we are approaching a meeting of the minds.

    But given this it makes no sense at all to treat wingers as fungible as Chiarelli clearly does.

    He doesn’t value them appropriately.This is what makes the blaming everything on the OBC nonsensical.Chiarelli has a long and established track record of dramatically under valuing wingers.And if you dramatically undervalue wingers you necessarily dramatically over value the other positions.Which means Chiarelli has a long and established track record of not valuing hockey players correctly.

    This isn’t something that is going to get better with time, since we have strong evidence that he doesn’t recognize this mistake.

    I agree somewhat, but one could also make the point that PC drastically undervalued Tyler Seguin as well, a C. Blaming everything on the OBC doesn’t make sense, also agree, because there are one of two scenarios in place:

    1) PC has made every decision, approved them, and therefore the onus is on him for the performance of the team and the damage he has done

    or

    2) The OBC is responsible for everything that has gone wrong, trades, signings, and more. IMO this looks worse on PC because he therefore is not able to assert himself in the decision making process and is thus dead weight.

    I can make an argument for and against each of PC’s move and back them up with somewhat decent evidence in either direction, though it is certainly easier to be more critical of PC than supportive. I believe the truth is somewhere in between atrocious and above average. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a GM with this roster.

    I will give PC credit for improving the D corps, though it is clearly not enough. I can also give him credit for revamping and greatly improving the scouting team and at the draft table. He seems to have had 3 very good drafts since coming aboard. That does not absolve him of some of his other decisions, mileage varies on which decision has been the most detrimental. (For me it is the blatant disregard of the cap next year, this falls on PC and Nicholson). I am nervously looking forward to the summer. Feelings aside, I think we can all agree that since PC is here for next season, I hope he has a tremendous draft and tweaks around the edges to make this a 103 pt team again in 2018-19.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t disagree wirh any of this and i’m not sure how you deduced that i do from my post?

    Because of the line I quoted in my response which was:

    Meanwhile, you can buy scoring Ws as FAs pretty much every offseason. What does that tell us about the asset value of these respective positions?

    Also,

    My point on free agency is you rarely see the elite Cs hit the open market as they’re simply too valuable and hard to replace.

    Elite wingers can be had in free agency cos faced with a cap crunch, most GMs will part with their Top Ws before they’ll part with their Top Cs.

    I’m not sure Elite wingers come available more than Elite C’s.

    I can’t think of any that have come available recently.

    I would agree that good complimentary wingers who can score with other good players come available more often (and get way overpaid), but I can’t think of a GF% driving one that has recently.

  161. Alpine says:

    From what I see, the factions and loyalty play out like this:

    Katz and Gretzky are loyal to the Old Boys Club, potentially Nicholson but not as much.

    Nicholson is loyal to Chia and vice versa. Chia’s loyal to Keith Gretzky, whos also safe because his more famous brother is now co-God Emperor. Chias relationship with Nicholson is probably the only reason he’s still around at this point.

    Lowe and Nicholson are loyal to each other moreso than Bob/Chia, hockey Canada buddies and all that. Lowe has Howson’s back as well.

    MacTavish is loyal to McLellan, Nicholson also supports Todd as they both picked him as their veteran coach of choice once it was clear he might leave SJ. We can guess that they were ready to move in on him before the lottery happened.

    Chia and McLellan are probably frustrated with each other’s performance this season. Todd likes to load up his top lines and Chia didn’t give him the depth to do that. Chia likely believes Todd didn’t get enough out of the roster this season. Both have legitimate arguments if they truly feel that way. Neither guy will bat an eye if they stay while the other gets canned.

    Nicholson appears to have the common ground between the three parties, those being the OBC, Chiarelli, and McLellan. He plays the nice guy that tries to make everyone happy. Gretzky and Katz let Nicholson run things as it is so they let him keep his guy because Kev told them to trust in Bob.

    Katz was likely upset that losing his original golden children (Hall, Eberle, even Yakupov) has not resulted in consistent success, and is likely untrusting of Chia for that, but I believe MacT wasn’t a big Hall fan himself either so the blame is shared among them

    MacTavish and Chia probably get along better than we think, they share similar views on hockey (MacT was into the heavy hockey idea, see Clarkson). MacT was probably upset Chia took his job but Chia probably heeds the formers advice enough that MacT is happy enough with the influence he has.

    So Todd will probably end up taking the fall if Chia’s not happy with him. Gretz and Katz don’t have any attachment to Todd to veto his firing. Both Todd and Chia are Nicholson’s guys but Chia is still above him. MacT loved Eakins and still got rid so he’s not gonna save Todd either. Guys like Rick Carriere, Duane Sutter, and Bill Scott will be in the line of fire so much as to spread the blame for this season between coaching and management.

    There is one more party here with lots of power that I haven’t mentioned and thats McDavid and his people. They apparently picked Chia for GM couple years and that’s why Chia has survived. It remains to be seen how they feel about the rest of the organization and we could see what they truly think based on who’s still at the draft table come June.

  162. Washingtron says:

    Seems like some people come here to debate and some people come here to argue. I’ll always listen to the debates but it is no fun listening to an argument even if the points are just as valid.

  163. N64 says:

    Melvis:
    Doug McLachlan,

    Watch the Vegas/LA game tonight. For the most part, Vegas plays a 2-1-2 system at a high pace through all fourlines.

    You’ll see F1, F2, and F3 constantly swapping out through the 2-1 positions -strong side to weak side. The centre – winger positions, as historically noted or played, seem especially irrelevant here. They’re all constantly interchangeable.

    On D, you’ll see the “1′ scuttling back. regardless if it’s a traditional winger or centre. Thus, a three man D around their own blue line.

    All five guys are positionally aware and constantly in support of each other – at a high pace. It’s really hard to crack when properly employed.

    Did the Oilers beat them? Yeah – but short of rewatching the games or the stats, I’d hazard a guess McD beat them.

    When your opponents never cheat maybe in some cases it rubs off on the oil for a night.

  164. Wayne Kenov says:

    Alpine:
    From what I see, the factions and loyalty play out like this:

    Katz and Gretzky are loyal to the Old Boys Club, potentially Nicholson but not as much.

    Nicholson is loyal to Chia and vice versa. Chia’s loyal to Keith Gretzky, whos also safe because his more famous brother is now co-God Emperor. Chias relationship with Nicholson is probably the only reason he’s still around at this point.

    Lowe and Nicholson are loyal to each other moreso than Bob/Chia, hockey Canada buddies and all that. Lowe has Howson’s back as well.

    MacTavish is loyal to McLellan, Nicholson also supports Todd as they both picked him as their veteran coach of choice once it was clear he might leave SJ. We can guess that they were ready to move in on him before the lottery happened.

    Chia and McLellan are probably frustrated with each other’s performance this season. Todd likes to load up his top lines and Chia didn’t give him the depth to do that. Chia likely believes Todd didn’t get enough out of the roster this season. Both have legitimate arguments if they truly feel that way. Neither guy will bat an eye if they stay while the other gets canned.

    Nicholson appears to have the common ground between the three parties, those being the OBC, Chiarelli, and McLellan. He plays the nice guy that tries to make everyone happy. Gretzky and Katz let Nicholson run things as it is so they let him keep his guy because Kev told them to trust in Bob.

    Katz was likely upset that losing his original golden children (Hall, Eberle, even Yakupov) has not resulted in consistent success, and is likely untrusting of Chia for that, but I believe MacT wasn’t a big Hall fan himself either so the blame is shared among them

    MacTavish and Chia probably get along better than we think, they share similar views on hockey (MacT was into the heavy hockey idea, see Clarkson). MacT was probably upset Chia took his job but Chia probably heeds the formers advice enough that MacT is happy enough with the influence he has.

    So Todd will probably end up taking the fall if Chia’s not happy with him. Gretz and Katz don’t have any attachment to Todd to veto his firing. Both Todd and Chia are Nicholson’s guys but Chia is still above him. MacT loved Eakins and still got rid so he’s not gonna save Todd either. Guys like Rick Carriere, Duane Sutter,and Bill Scott will be in the line of fire so much as to spread the blame for this season between coaching and management.

    There is one more party here with lots of power that I haven’t mentioned and thats McDavid and his people. They apparently picked Chia for GM couple years and that’s why Chia has survived. It remains to be seen how they feel about the rest of the organization and we could see what they truly think based on who’s still at the draft table come June.

    This is turning into a soap opera, and I am having trouble following along. Would you mind making a chart like this?
    Relationship Chart

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Don’t know if its been linked before (probably has), but here’s a nice piece specifically on Berglund and Lagesson from Elite Prospects:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/article.php?id=301

  166. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t disagree wirh any of this and i’m not sure how you deduced that i do from my post?

    Because of the line I quoted in my response which was:

    Meanwhile, you can buy scoring Ws as FAs pretty much every offseason. What does that tell us about the asset value of these respective positions?

    Also,

    My point on free agency is you rarely see the elite Cs hit the open market as they’re simply too valuable and hard to replace.


    Elite wingers can be had in free agency cos faced with a cap crunch, most GMs will part with their Top Ws before they’ll part with their Top Cs.

    I’m not sure Elite wingers come available more than Elite C’s.

    I can’t think of any that have come available recently.

    I would agree that good complimentary wingers who can score with other good players come available more often (and get way overpaid), but I can’t think of a GF% driving one that has recently.

    The moral of the story is elite players no matter the position rarely become available. Get them and keep them

  167. godot10 says:

    Jaxon: I wouldn’t solely be searching for a backup. Talbot is going into the final year of his contract and there isn’t a suitable replacement in the system yet. It doesn’t appear that Brossoit will be taking over. Ellis? Maybe. Starret? Wells? Maybe, but they’re further off than Ellis. A goalie like Francouz could conceivably come in and challenge fairly soon and they could decide on who to go with next summer. Plus, it would give them leverage when negotiating Talbot’s next contract. If Talbot has a decent but not great season and they don’t have a reliable backup/future replacement, then Talbot can name his price and the Oilers will have to overpay a player, yet again.

    How is a goaltender who plays 10 games in North America going to give you leverage over Talbot?

    McLellan has been here three years. He is a one goaltender coach. That is who he is. For McLellan, more is more.

    Babcock seeks to limit Matthews ice time. McLellan will play McDavid till he drops. That is who he is. He wants to use a subset of the 23 guys. That is who he is a coach.

  168. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Mustard Tiger:
    With all the discussion of the OBC, it got me thinking, what’s the full membership of the OBC and their supposed jobs?

    Lowe (OEG business side, allegedly)
    MacT ( advisor/scout?)
    Gretzky ( ribbon cutter)
    Coffey (Defenceman coach)
    Messier (????)

    Who am I missing? It seems even worse when you actually type it out..

    – I would add all the personel who are clearly OBC-protected (i.e. hired by OBC, and still in important positions, so:

    1) Sutter
    2) Carriere
    3) Howson
    4) Scott
    5) Schwartz

    – So that’s 10 guys in management all in key roles in the organization, that are OBC, or OBC-protected. Objectively I don’t think 1-5 get their role in other organizations. But if you look at their CV’s, they got their jobs at the OIL when the OBC was in charge (and they still are here)

    – Since McD was drafted, Chia was hired (by Bob), a new coach was hired (by MacT), and Wayne’s brother (who fortunately has a track record), he was allowed to be hired by Chia

    – Bob, he’s a “safe” hire from the OBC, seeing as he was picking the Oilers for the all-star games. But to Bob’s credit, he’s been true to his role as a manager, and it appears he’s done the right thing by sticking with his guy, against the OBC.

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    1336 votes so far in my twiiter poll.

    Vote now to see the results!!

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/984767721391865856

    Poll is:

    Who would you prefer be running EDM’s Hockey Ops?

    No, you don’t get a “neither” option as I don’t think Burger Bob has that option.

    OBC (Lowe/MacT etc)
    Chiarelli

  170. Woogie63 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I would add all the personel who are clearly OBC-protected (i.e. hired by OBC, and still in important positions, so:

    1) Sutter
    2) Carriere
    3) Howson
    4) Scott
    5) Schwartz

    – So that’s 10 guys in management all in key roles in the organization, that are OBC, or OBC-protected.Objectively I don’t think 1-5 get their role in other organizations.But if you look at their CV’s, they got their jobs at the OIL when the OBC was in charge (and they still are here)

    – Since McD was drafted, Chia was hired (by Bob), a new coach was hired (by MacT), and Wayne’s brother (who fortunately has a track record), he was allowed to be hired by Chia

    – Bob, he’s a “safe” hire from the OBC, seeing as he was picking the Oilers for the all-star games.But to Bob’s credit, he’s been true to his role as a manager, and it appears he’s done the right thing by sticking with his guy, against the OBC.

    PC’s brother, Bob Green’s step son are on the scouting staff.

    This is a business philosophy for the Oiler’s group…

  171. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    flea:
    Stauffer plays UB40 – Red Wine as the intro to Spector’s interview.

    for real?!? Awesome…

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Washingtron:
    Seems like some people come here to debate and some people come here to argue.I’ll always listen to the debates but it is no fun listening to an argument even if the points are just as valid.

    No it isn’t.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxrbOVeRonQ

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: The moral of the story is elite players no matter the position rarely become available.Get them and keep them

    *DINGDINGDINGDING*

  174. SwedishPoster says:

    Berglund’s Skellefteå is through to the SHL finals after winning tonight against Lagesson and his Djurgården team making the series 4-2. Both playing well both getting an assist.

    I’ve talked a lot about Berglund since he’s had a glorious playoffs but Lagesson has been good as well. Had a beast of a third period in game 5 when his team rallied to save the series. His coach said ‘he was like an octopus’ and ‘he’s played extremely well the whole playoffs’. He’s lead his team in ice time a lot of nights, a real coach’s dream with his steady play.

    Will be fun watching Berglund in the final, he’ll probably get a heavy dose of Elias Pettersson as he’s leaned upon in defensive situations and Pettersson is the league’s best offensive player by far imo. Great challenge for Berglund. Växjö has been the team to beat all year and will be heavily favoured.

  175. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Alpine,

    – Thanks for this: probably a lot of inferences, but a fun read (I’m not being critical). And your take on a lot of the allegiances is based in practical realities

    – I hadn’t heard that McD’s people (read Orr), wanted Chia: but the Boston connection, and the ex-agent connection: makes sense.

    Where did you hear this McD/Orr/Chia connection?

  176. Georges says:

    Looked up RNH and Hall on NST.

    Here’s their respective 5v5 GF% in RNH’s first 3 years in the league:

    Year, RNH GF%, Hall GF%

    11-12, 55.13, 52.56
    12-13, 51.06, 53.85
    13-14, 46.73, 47.79

    Not a lot of separation. Given the numbers are close, I’ll guess that if Taylor Hall made RNH look much better over this period, then RNH had more or less the same effect on Taylor Hall.

    Moving on to the next 2 seasons (before the Hall trade)…

    Year, RNH GF%, Hall GF%

    14-15, 46.85, 51.43
    15-16, 45.07, 52.25

    More separation. Hall definitely looks better.

    What happened to RNH?

    Here are the GF-GA numbers for RNH and Hall in 14-15:

    State, TOI, GF, GA

    Together, 500, 21, 20
    RNH w/o Hall, 638, 31, 39
    Hall w/o RNH, 304, 15, 14

    I think that was the RNH-Pou-Ebs year. RNH and Hall’s CF% didn’t change much whether they played together or apart (around 50). And their on-ice sh% was about the same. RNH just had a much lower on-ice sv% away from Hall (87.7 w/o vs. 91.7 with).

    Here’s what the numbers looked like in Hall’s last season. This time RNH was injured:

    State, TOI, GF, GA

    Together, 303, 16, 12
    RNH w/o Hall, 468, 16, 27
    Hall w/o RNH, 911, 42, 41

    Hall’s most common linemate was Drai, 861 minutes with, 193 minutes w/o.

    RNH’s most common linemate was Ebs, 343 minutes with, 227 minutes w/o.

    Hall has definitely been a better offensive player than RNH. Hall, this year and in earlier years, was a driver; RNH, rarely so (if ever). But the difference in GF% in Hall’s last two seasons in EDM may be more about linemates, matchups, and role on team than innate ability.

    As an example, early results for CMD-RNH look swell. They both look much better together than apart. The results would be well outside of RNH’s range if you defined RNH’s range too narrowly based on his previous results.

  177. jake70 says:

    Wayne Kenov: This is turning into a soap opera, and I am having trouble following along. Would you mind making a chart like this?
    Relationship Chart

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laUwuLqGDwI

    skip to 1:03 😉

  178. godot10 says:

    flea:
    Stauffer plays UB40 – Red Wine as the intro to Spector’s interview.

    The original Neil Diamond version is better! -). When Neil Diamond was cool, before he was uncool, before he was cool again.

  179. jm363561 says:

    On holiday in ChiarelliLand in Italy. Just returned after a terrific meal with my wife who is now posting photos of trulli houses and the multiple churches visited on Facebook (and generally interfering with the US democratic process). Checked out today’s thread and concluded I must have drunk far more wine than I thought. It’s going to be a long six months until the season starts.

  180. commonfan29 says:

    RWers are more valuable than Cs.

    Cs are more valuable than LWers.

    LWers are more valuable than RWers.

    I will accept no counter-arguments.

  181. Dustylegnd says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    The obvious point nobody has mentioned is that there are twice as many wingers as centres in the league, therefore it follows that Great Centres are more rare than great wingers, doesn’t mean you can win without some great wingers

  182. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t disagree wirh any of this and i’m not sure how you deduced that i do from my post?

    Because of the line I quoted in my response which was:

    Meanwhile, you can buy scoring Ws as FAs pretty much every offseason. What does that tell us about the asset value of these respective positions?

    Also,

    My point on free agency is you rarely see the elite Cs hit the open market as they’re simply too valuable and hard to replace.


    Elite wingers can be had in free agency cos faced with a cap crunch, most GMs will part with their Top Ws before they’ll part with their Top Cs.

    I’m not sure Elite wingers come available more than Elite C’s.

    I can’t think of any that have come available recently.

    I would agree that good complimentary wingers who can score with other good players come available more often (and get way overpaid), but I can’t think of a GF% driving one that has recently.

    Kessel, Panarin, Oshie, Hall are all elite wingers that have been moved recently. Granted, not via free agency.

    Whilst some good Cs have moved: Duchene, Johansen, They haven’t been moved for Ws but for either Cs or Ds.

    The pattern seems to be assets down the middle command comparable assets down the middle. Very rarely do you see assets down the middle traded for Ws. Oddly enough Chiarelli is involved in a couple with a LW fetching a D with Hall for Larsson and a W fetching a C/W with Eberle for Strome.

    Check out this list as well: https://www.nhl.com/news/top-10-free-agent-signings-of-past-10-years/c-281068076

    Some elite Ws on there but nary a C.

  183. Alpine says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    1336 votes so far in my twiiter poll.

    Vote now to see the results!!

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/984767721391865856

    Poll is:

    Who would you prefer be running EDM’s Hockey Ops?


    No, you don’t get a “neither” option as I don’t think Burger Bob has that option.

    OBC (Lowe/MacT etc)
    Chiarelli

    Doesn’t having chiarelli mean that the OBC is still included? I think Lowe as GM and Chia in Boston are pretty equal and MacT as GM and Chia in Edmonton are pretty equal. So it’s really close. I voted Chiarelli mainly because I think he edges Lowe and MacT in success even if I think Chia’s Boston tenure is overrated and his Edmonton work is poor.

  184. Bag of Pucks says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Bag of Pucks,

    The obvious point nobody has mentioned is that there are twice as many wingers as centres in the league, therefore it follows that Great Centres are more rare than great wingers, doesn’t mean you can win without some great wingers

    Exactly, Supply and demand,

    There’s less of them and they can be more easily shifted to W if need be.

  185. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pink Socks: But how could one attain a starring role in such a production…. well nvm.

    Katz should buy the less well off OBC a house near his or Gretzky ‘s in LA, Messier can buy his own, give them VP jobs with his production company and let Chia get about his business making sure Connor wins at least 6 Cups.

    They’d have more fun out of the fishbowl anyway.

  186. Alpine says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Alpine,

    – Thanks for this: probably a lot of inferences, but a fun read (I’m not being critical).And your take on a lot of the allegiances is based in practical realities

    – I hadn’t heard that McD’s people (read Orr), wanted Chia: but the Boston connection, and the ex-agent connection: makes sense.

    Where did you hear this McD/Orr/Chia connection?

    Yeah that post was mostly guesswork on my part. I’m trying to figure out how the specific the division is because I think it’s more complicated than just OBC vs Chiarelli. Because at that point Nicholson is on both sides because he’s worked with Lowe a lot.

    The McDavid picked Chiarelli is just a rumour I read on twitter from someone who I don’t remember but isn’t a bullshitter. I think you’ve figured out the connection there yourself.

  187. McSorley33 says:

    Jaxon,

    17.25 Andrei Svechnikov
    14.00 Connor McDavid
    14.00 Patrick Kane
    13.26 Sidney Crosby
    12.41 John Tavares
    12.09 Alex DeBrincat
    12.03 Jonathan Drouin
    11.96 Robby Fabbri
    **************************************************************************
    Who is DeBrincat?

    Oh, wait…..

    Hall
    Griff
    Eberle
    Debrincat..

    It is a resume that should get you fired – twice.

    Can’t **wait** to see what PC does this year….am I right?

  188. OilClog says:

    Talk of replacing Nuge with Hoffman is painful to see.

    Get good players keep good players

  189. OmJo says:

    Alpine,

    I shared a screenshot of this on Twitter. Hope you don’t mind – if you do I’ll definitely delete the tweet. If you have Twitter I can post it again and give you direct credit.

  190. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Kessel, Panarin, Oshie, Hall are all elite wingers that have been moved recently. Granted, not via free agency.

    Whilst some good Cs have moved: Duchene, Johansen, They haven’t been moved for Ws but for either Cs or Ds.

    The pattern seems to be assets down the middle command comparable assets down the middle. Very rarely do you see assets down the middle traded for Ws. Oddly enough Chiarelli is involved in a couple with a LW fetching a D with Hall for Larsson and a W fetching a C/W with Eberle for Strome.

    Check out this list as well: https://www.nhl.com/news/top-10-free-agent-signings-of-past-10-years/c-281068076

    Some elite Ws on there but nary a C.

    Thanks for the link.

    Some good wingers for sure, but none hit the elite pile except piss-cutter extraordinaire Hossa and he was 30 when he signed with CHI.

  191. jake70 says:

    John Shannon, who I listen to carefully when he and McCown discuss Oilers (I think he is well connected there) on the PTS roundtable discussing Oilers. On McLelland: (and he mentioned similar a few weeks ago talking Oilers)

    “….guys like Chiarelli and Nicholson can address better than we (roundtable guys) can…is is that how flexible was McLelland?..how open was MclLelland to change and input and to me that becomes the real storyline..you know they had a stagnant powerplay, they had very poor penalty killing…..you know special teams we talked about in the maple leafs series – special teams is how a team gets defined now…if you’re not very good at both of those you;re not gonna win very many games…so did they just keep bringing out the same band of brothers and doing the same thing well for most of the year they did…so why did they do that ?why wasn’t there change? why wasn’t there different practice methods and I think that’s the question that those..that triumvirate McLelland, Nicholson, Chiarelli have to ask each other if there has to be a decision to be made on who the coach is ”

    They then talked about injuires, they ween’t fast enough and debated Taylor Hall trade – couple arguing Hall was not and would not have been the “superstar” he is now with NJ.

    Never a dull moment as they say.

  192. Jethro Tull says:

    OilClog:
    Talk of replacing Nuge with Hoffman is painful to see.

    Get good players keep good players

    Why? Hoffman is as valuable as Nuge.

  193. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chiarelli has built a deeper team than either MacT or Lowe ever did. Lowe blew high end assets as well. Lowe did put together the 06 run team but couldn’t keep it together and didn’t do well after. I think he was fortunate in 06 more than good.

    I like the player types that Chiarelli wants, but they are rare and that’s the problem. Physical talented good skating aggressive players don’t abound. And cost the moon. So you should take talent in lieu.

  194. rickithebear says:

    Proper prospect performance measure involves 3 crutcal issues.
    1. Unit differentiation.
    Even (total, primary, goal)
    PP
    SH

    2. League equivalency.
    Converting current Desjardins NHLE (updated by Vollman) to Desjardins original .32 chl charts.
    Ex. WHL .302/.32 x (g a p)

    3. Age translation based on days beyond
    16yr draft -1 75 to 100% ((.25 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .75) x converted (g a p) 33% variance
    17yr draft 50-75% ((.25 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .50) x converted (g a p) 50% variance
    18yr draft +1 40-50% ((.10 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .40) x converted (g a p) 20% variance
    19yr draft +2 35-40% ((.05 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .35) x converted (g a p) 12% variance
    20yr draft +3 32-35% ((.03 x (days past sept 16/365)) + .32) x converted (g a p)
    Non chl leagues
    21yr draft +4 .30-.32
    22yr draft +5 .29-.30
    18 yr season should be draft year.

    I do this for all prospects cause age is biggest variance and you can compare thier chl seasons to see if they are consistent year to year. And elimates zoom ( strome without Mcdavid) and injury (Monohan healthy @16)
    16 vs 17
    17 vs 18
    18 vs 19
    19 vs 20

  195. godot10 says:

    jake70:
    John Shannon, who I listen to carefully when he and McCown discuss Oilers (I think he is well connected there)on the PTS roundtable discussing Oilers.On McLelland:(and he mentioned similar a few weeks ago talking Oilers)

    “….guys like Chiarelli and Nicholson can address better than we (roundtable guys) can…isis that how flexible was McLelland?..how open was MclLelland to change and input and to me that becomes the real storyline..you know they had a stagnant powerplay, they had very poor penalty killing…..you know special teams we talked about in the maple leafs series – special teams is how a team gets defined now…if you’re not very good at both of those you;re not gonna win very many games…so did they just keep bringing out the same band of brothers and doing the same thing well for most of the year they did…so why did they do that ?why wasn’t there change? why wasn’t there different practice methods and I think that’s the question that those..that triumvirate McLelland,Nicholson, Chiarelli have to ask each other if there has to be a decision to be made on who the coach is ”

    They then talked about injuires, they ween’t fast enough and debated Taylor Hall trade – couple arguing Hall was not and would not have been the “superstar” he is now with NJ.

    Never a dull moment as they say.

    Hall was arguably better in the Krueger season than this year. If not for the no help from the OBC at the deadline and the poor end to the season (no fault to Hall), he would have been q Hart candidate that season if the Oilers had made the playoffs.

  196. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Hall was arguably better in the Krueger season than this year.If not for the no help from the OBC at the deadline and the poor end to the season (no fault to Hall), he would have been q Hart candidate that season if the Oilers had made the playoffs.

    Hall’s Relative Goal Share (on/off) over his career:

    10/11 +2.0
    11/12 +9.0
    13 +10.6
    13/14 +8.7
    14/15 +16.7
    15/16 +11.8
    16/17 +10.7
    17/18 +13.2

    His year with St. Ralph (13) is his 5th best in terms of how he out performs the rest of the team.

  197. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hey Woodguy
    I know you aren’t answer monkey, but what’s your opinion on Grabner’s metrics? I see him as a good fit for the Oilers, affordable, PKs and scored goals.

    I’m on my phone and parsing NST isn’t easy, but it seems he drags most players down. Which probably isn’t what we’re looking for.

  198. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Hey Woodguy
    I know you aren’t answer monkey, but what’s your opinion on Grabner’s metrics? I see him as a good fit for the Oilers, affordable, PKs and scored goals.

    I’m on my phone and parsing NST isn’t easy, but it seems he drags most players down. Which probably isn’t what we’re looking for.

    I appreciate the way you asked.

    “Not an answer monkey” is always good.

    On my phone, but will look when I can.

  199. Spooky Lynx says:

    jake70,

    I hate to be pedantic, but it’s McLellan, not McLelland.

    Thanks for transcribing that though, it’s interesting hearing the verbal from the wider hockey world.

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