Draft and Fallow

At the media avail last week, Peter Chiarelli told the gathered throng he was open to trading the first-round pick (unless Edmonton wins a lottery). What’s the value of that pick? Why would Edmonton contemplate such a thing? I believe the answers are “bigly” and “if a potential impact forward isn’t there at No. 9 they’re trading down or out” at this time.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s incredible season (will link)
  • Lowetide: Rattie signed, more work to do on right-wing.
  • Lowetide: Trio of Condors blue have very different rookie experiences.
  • Black Dog Pat: Not firing Chiarelli a slap in the face to Oilers fans.
  • Lowetide: Trading the first-round pick: Oilers ponder summer
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

The 2018 Draft

The Oilers badly needed Jesse Puljujarvi to turn out immediately and that hasn’t happened. I think the club would be very interested in drafting a top-end forward if available at No. 9, but are likely less enthralled with a defensive option not named Rasmus Dahlin or Quinn Hughes. This is my opinion. Since we have 10 days before the lottery, I thought it would be a good idea to discuss options for the eight teams ahead of Edmonton, and then what might be left at No. 9. I’m going to focus on forwards through the piece and will use the latest ISS April list as my guide.

  1. Buffalo Sabres: LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). Buffalo could use a franchise player at any position, and the depth chart at LHD (based on 5×5 ice time: Marco Scandella, Jake McCabe, Nathan Beaulieu) could use the spark. I’m hoping Arizona wins the lottery but the choice at No. 1 will remain the same. If Buffalo falls out of top spot, look for a scoring winger to be high on the wish list (and there are a few available).
  2. Ottawa Senators: L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Ottawa is open to make a trade but there’s some exceptional talent at the top of the draft. I believe the club will pass on the Russian (last player from that country chosen in the first round by Ottawa: Anton Volchenkov, 2000) and pick up the Czech. His NHLE is 33.5 and he could be a plug and play.
  3. Arizona Coyotes: R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). He’s very likely the second best player in the draft and could be No. 1five years from now. Svechnikov is that rare player who has both elite skill and a complete skill set. It’s a rare item, Steve Shutt had it but you can go a long time without seeing it. I’m excited to see him in the NHL.
  4. Montreal Canadiens: RC Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Has pretty much everything the Habs will be looking for, including skill and natural goal-scoring ability. The defensemen will be tempting, but if this elite talent solves the center problem in the next couple of years, Montreal will be thrilled with the selection.
  5. Detroit Red Wings: LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). This is a perfect fit for the Red Wings, who are going to need some astute drafting in the next few years. Fast as lightning, highly skilled and he plays in their back yard.
  6. Vancouver Canucks: L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). They had a chance at his brother, I don’t think Vancouver will pass on another Tkachuk. He’s a rugged player and may be able to step right into the Canucks rebuild.
  7. Chicago Blackhawks: RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). The Blackhawks could go any number of ways but grabbing a fairly complete defenseman is a grand idea. The team is in a weird spot, this isn’t a rebuild, but the team is in rare air in terms of the draft and this may be their man at this spot.
  8. New York Rangers: RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Another skill pick from the defense, he appears to have his cannons as a prospect pointed toward the offensive end. Because of it, he could fall, but I don’t think he gets to Edmonton.
  9. Edmonton Oilers: LC Joe Veleno, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). He’s a highly regarded two-way center and the offense (NHLE: 32.7) spiked in the second half of the year. Edmonton avoids the QMJHL (I wrote about it here) but if names like Quinn Hughes are gone I expect a trade or a forward. Note: I remain convinced Ty Smith will be the best player available at No. 9 overall.

My Top 100 is here and I’ll be talking to Simon Boisvert this morning on the Lowdown about what to do at No. 9 overall. I believe they’ll trade the pick.

WHAT CAN YOU GET FOR NO. 9 OVERALL?

The Oilers were in a conversation with the Vancouver Canucks as the 2013 draft approached. If I recall, the rumored deal was Edmonton’s first-round selection, a second rounder and quality prospect, in exchange for goaltender Cory Schneider. Craig MacTavish balked, and Van sent the goalie to NJD for the selection that turned into Bo Horvat. Here is a brief recent history of picks sent away in this area of the draft.

  • Calgary traded their first-round pick in 2018 (now No. 12 overall), the Flames second-round pick in 2018 and a conditional second rounder in 2019 for D Travis Hamonic. This was a very specific trade and few thought the Flames would miss the playoffs. I don’t think we can gain much knowledge from this deal.
  • Arizona dealt their first rounder in 2017 (No. 7 overall) and Anthony DeAngelo to NY Rangers for Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta. The Rangers were sending money away too, so there’s added  value. Edmonton could possibly look at this deal as a template for immediate help but can’t take on cap so elements of this trade are problematic.
  • Los Angeles Kings traded their first-round selection (No. 13) in 2015, plus Martin Jones and Colin Miller to Boston for Milan Lucic. Edmonton doesn’t have a lot in terms of prospects/young players to send away but this kind of package might be possible (and the pick is higher).
  • Calgary traded their first-round pick (No. 15) in 2015 and two second round picks (No. 45 and No. 52) to Boston for Dougie Hamilton. I think this might be something Edmonton could work with. They have No. 9, No. 40 and No. 71 this year.
  • Edmonton traded their first-round pick (No. 16) and second-round pick (No. 33) to NY Islanders for Griffin Reinhart. This is something Edmonton could do!

WHAT COULD THE OILERS GET FOR NO. 9 AND NO. 40?

The Calgary Flames don’t have their own first-round selection but Dougie Hamilton isn’t coming to Edmonton. The St. Louis Blues are also without their own first rounder, would they ever consider trading Colton Parayko (in a bigger deal)? They traded Bob Hess, so anything is possible. My greatest fear? Oilers trade for Brent Burns.

Central is a guide, the final ranking doesn’t mean as much as Bob McKenzie’s list. However, the final list will offer us clues about spiking Euros and fading North Americans. Things to look for:

  • Joe Veleno moving up from No. 13 North American.
  • Ty Dellandrea moving up from No. 76 North American.
  • Liam Foudy moving up from No. 91 North American.
  • Aidan Dudas moving up from No. 131 North American.
  • Dominik Bokk moving up from No. 8 European.
  • Samuel Fagemo moving up from No. 40 European.

TRADER PETE

It sounds like the priorities are a righty blue and a substantial backup goalie. I think they’ll also look to add a winger or two. The Oilers will have $3-5 million in cap room for one major addition, likely a puck mover. The goalie should cost them $1-1.5 million. Wingers? I think that may involve trades. Who is leaving? That is the question.

Ryan Strome is vulnerable, although management may have seen enough to return him. It may come down to the contract. Jonathan Willis has mentioned Zack Kassian a few times, he’s expensive for a fourth-line winger. I believe Jesse Puljujarvi is vulnerable to a trade but my guess is the big man is back here in the fall. We don’t think of him as an expensive cap investment, but the $2.5 million in possible bonuses must be accounted for opening night. It’s also possible one of the men who own an NMC (Lucic, Sekera, Russell, Talbot) waives and is dealt.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning after an incredible sports weekend. It begins at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. Opening playoff series coming into view, panic in Toronto, worry in Winnipeg and a party in Vegas.
  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. We’re going to discuss what happens at No. 9 overall, the wisdom of trading out or down, and the best player available in that area.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. After all the press conferences, it sounds like Edmonton is going to add a puck mover and a goalie. Anything else?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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224 Responses to "Draft and Fallow"

Newer Comments »
  1. Confused says:

    Wash and LV games combine for 20PP

    About what we get in an entire month!

  2. Rondo says:

    My picks so far

    1st rd- D-man( Dobson) or Hayton, Veleno, Kupari, Kotkaniemi

    2nd rd -Jake Wise or Nils Lundkvist

  3. meanashell11 says:

    I do not take a forward here unless an outstanding winger is available (Tkachuk). Bouchard, Smith, one of these RD.

  4. leadfarmer says:

    No need to fear Brent Burns is not coming here.

    Team in a win now window with some ageing players (pavelski’s skating will sink him soon) wont trade him in the division.

    The Flames want a first round pick but I think the guys they want to trade wont get a high first round pick. Maybe they will give up on Brodie who is not working well in their system. Thats probably the only guy thats worth a first round pick that they wouldnt kick themselves for trading.

  5. Confused says:

    LT everything I have read descibes Wahlstrom as a W not really a C.

    If so, Montreal passes and probably takes the true C Veleno.

  6. jtblack says:

    Veleno. I wont be happy if that is the pick @ #9. Prefer Smith or many others.

  7. Confused says:

    How about we go all Swedish, all RHD

    1. Boqvist
    2. Lundkvist
    Free Agent: Persson

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    I’m hearing Athanasiou would be available for Bear and a 2nd. Do you do that deal?

  9. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    Veleno.I wont be happy if that is the pick @ #9.Prefer Smith or many others.

    Hmm… some reason why not? Down the stretch he outscored Zadina, who is projected to be a top-3 pick. If you can get a center who produces like a top-3 pick at #9, why not? I can see why you’d prefer Smith, but why would you be unhappy with Veleno at 9th?

  10. JustWatt says:

    LT,

    Why fear a Burns trade? Cost?

  11. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack:
    Veleno.I wont be happy if that is the pick @ #9.Prefer Smith or many others.

    Just curious. Why do you not like Veleno at 9? His numbers after being traded are basically the same as Zadina. Fewer goals though. Although he’s getting goals in the playoffs.

  12. Oilin4 says:

    If I’m not mistaken, Poolparty is waivers eligible. Oilers could paper transaction him to the AHL to start the season, then call him up. Then his cap hit can be used to exceed the cap. He isn’t likely to hit the big bonuses (win an award, finish top 10 in scoring), so it’s a pretty safe move.

  13. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I’m hearing Athanasiou would be available for Bear and a 2nd. Do you do that deal?

    It’s probably a fair deal, maybe an overpay for the Wings, but I don’t think I can pull the trigger on that deal. Bear is so close and his potential is so high.

  14. RexLibris says:

    So everyone and his dog knows the Oilers need cheap skill for the foreseeable future because of the cap hits on the core players and unmoveable contracts.

    Given the opportunity to acquire affordable skill at zero cost we can anticipate, due to self-inflicted wounds, the Oilers to forego that opportunity and use those assets to acquire complementary talents at a higher cost, perhaps by including in the acquisition affordable talent currently under their control.

    There’s a line somewhere about losing teams and bad habits.

    I understand that Chiarelli isn’t fighting for the team as much as he’s fighting for his job right now, but passing on their 1st and 2nd round picks for immediate talent that is likely going to have a salary cap impact forcing out more skill and thus creating a vacuum in the development pipeline is the sort of thing that may cost the job of Chiarelli’s eventual replacement.

  15. Bobcaygeon says:

    I guess I might be in the minority, but I believe some major trades are going to happen this summer.

    I don’t think Chiarelli & Bobby Nick survive without getting into the playoffs, in fact, if the Oilers have a losing record in the first 20 games I think Chairelli gets axed.

    I think you’ll see him clean his messes up.

    I don’t think the 1st ova pick or Jesse Puljujarvi survives and I do believe he will move Sekera and Lucic.

    He needs to in order to add the pieces necessary for this team to make the playoffs IMHO

    I’m with Lowetide in that the Oilers need a RHD preferably one that plays up in the order and a winger for Driasaitl, I’m also on board with a back up goalie that can play 25 games.
    the Oilers could use depth in the roster also.

    Again, probably in the minority but to me that sounds like a lot of money that needs to shed in order to make this happen. If one of these items doesn’t get it done could mean the difference in not making the playoffs. I think Chiarelli is at critical point and he knows it.

  16. digger50 says:

    A few ways to go here.

    Trade the first and hope the new guy pans out – but you have to pay him so you lose your first and use up much of your cap room. This has to be the “right” guy, no room for error.

    There is a guy named Maroon who will get you 20 goals. You can pay him that cap space and keep your first round pick. Still $ left for that goalie.

    Which way takes the team further?

  17. JohnnyOilfan says:

    LT,

    Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Oil to trade their next year’s 2019 1st Rounder with other assets, to get an NHL ready now player than trade this year’s? Isn’t this draft a more of deeper than next year and I would be hoping that we would be in the playoffs next year to mitigate trading away any potential lotto pick?

  18. Bobcaygeon says:

    digger50:
    A few ways to go here.

    Trade the first and hope the new guy pans out – but you have to pay him so you lose your first and use up much of your cap room. This has to be the “right” guy, no room for error.

    There is a guy named Maroon who will get you 20 goals. You can pay him that cap space and keep your first round pick. Still $ left for that goalie.

    Which way takes the team further?

    I don’t believe you can have Maroon and Lucic on the same team. It would have to be one or the other. preferably Maroon at a much lower CAP hit.

  19. zatch says:

    I sure hope we move the pick. In the range we’ll likely be drafting in, that guy likely isn’t much use to the team 2 years at the earliest, perhaps as late as 4 or 5 if he’s D. That’s burning right through McDavid’s prime. It’s too late to draft and follow, that should have been done better in the past. Move the pick for help now.

    I also think, as has been noted above, that someone moves for the sake of cap space. We’ll see who, but I can’t see them stumbling along this summer. Things need to happen, and happen soon.

  20. Brantford Boy says:

    LT,

    Not 100% certain, but I think I remember the Canucks were the ones squashing the #7 (Nurse) trade as they didn’t want Schneider in the same division… either or, they got there guy – Horvat.

    Rondo,

    Yes, Dobson please…

    RexLibris,

    Good points… and another expansion…

  21. Brantford Boy says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    “I don’t think the 1st ova pick or Jesse Puljujarvi survives and I do believe he will move Sekera and Lucic.”

    Dare to dream… all I see however is that poster of the kitten holding onto the wire for dear life…

  22. jtblack says:

    JimmyV1965: Just curious. Why do you not like Veleno at 9? His numbers after being traded are basically the same as Zadina. Fewer goals though. Although he’s getting goals in the playoffs.

    & ARMCHAIR

    VELENO could be Good, we are all guessing for the most part. I think People over value him based on his exceptional status.

    If you just look at his 16 yr old numbers and then this year, I see Jason Bosignore 2.0. // Matt Stajan 2.0
    Outside of his burst after the trade, hes been a 1 PPG guy, including the playoffs this year. Nothing that screams Top 10 pick.

    In fairness, I have never seen him play. I just beleive there are more dynamic players who will be avail at #9.
    WE WAIT

  23. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Draft and fallow.

    Clever.

  24. Confused says:

    From central scouting with a few assumptions

    9 WAHLSTROM, OLIVER USA U-18 NTDP 13-Jun-2000 6′ 0.75″ 205 lbs * RW R 54 40 43 83 38
    10 VELENO, JOSEPH DRUMMONDVILLE QMJHL 13-Jan-2000 6′ 1.25″ 193 lbs * C L 64 22 57 79 48

  25. Todd Macallan says:

    In that draft scenario I take Noah Dobson 9 times out of 10. The other time I take Ty Smith (in reality I would be ecstatic to get either)

  26. Rondo says:

    Why did Columbus’s GM pick Pierre Luc Dubois over Jesse Puljujarvi?

  27. Bobcaygeon says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Bobcaygeon,

    “I don’t think the 1st ova pick or Jesse Puljujarvi survives and I do believe he will move Sekera and Lucic.”

    Dare to dream… all I see however is that poster of the kitten holding onto the wire for dear life…

    The Owl seconds before the mouse realizes it’s waaaaaay to late!!

  28. GCW_69 says:

    Trading the pick this year with an expansion draft looming is a foolish move, but Pete might be desperate enough too do it anyway. I worry he isn’t smart enough to extract the additional value expansion exempt players should be worth, so it will be a double hit. The final hit will come when the oilers have to pay Seattle to protect the player he acquires, possibly an additional first round pick.

  29. geowal says:

    “Edmonton traded their first-round pick (No. 16) and second-round pick (No. 33) to NY Islanders for Griffin Reinhart. This is something Edmonton could do!”

    Trolling your blog LT! 😉

  30. Bobcaygeon says:

    Rondo:
    Why did Columbus’s GM pick Pierre Luc Dubois overJesse Puljujarvi?

    Good question, I think Kekalainen had some inside information on Jesse that he didn’t like.

  31. Rondo says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    It’s why Barrett Hayton maybe a good pick at #9. Not always about skill. For me Pierre Luc Dubois is more of a playoff player than Jesse P. Compete level.

  32. Jaxon says:

    I like Veleno at #9. As mentioned by others, he has outscored Zadina since January and into the playoffs (a roughly 40 game sample size). I’ve never read a bad thing in a scouting report and his elite 2-way play at C make him one of the more versatile and likely NHL ready players in the draft. Nuge 2.0? If Nuge and/or Draisaitl are going to play wing, having a C who can also play W would be a great arrow in TMac’s quiver.

    On RHD Bouchard scored 1.4 primary pts / 60, Merkley 1.3, and Dobson 1.12. 1.3 and 1.4 are relatively close, but Merkley’s 1.3 is substantially higher than Dobson’s 1.12 in an easier league. After taking into account the league adjustment it works out to roughly 32% more production. Bouchard and Merkley have truly elite offensive skills.

    Another player to watch in the first round will be RW Serron Noel. His primary pts / 60 is the 3rd highest among Canadian junior players in the draft after Svechnikov and Zadina and he’s 6’5″, 201 lbs and one of the youngest players in the draft! I think we might see him climb the rankings quite a bit before the draft. Would he be a good pick at #9? or #12?

  33. Brantford Boy says:

    Bobcaygeon: Good question, I think Kekalainen had some inside information on Jesse that he didn’t like.

    My guess is he saw a very young kid (ie: immature) that spoke almost no English and foresaw a gap in development time compared to Dubois being that Puljujarvi would need to transition to the N. American game away from family/friends. This coupled with the trade of Ryan Johansen to Nashville making his centre depth weak and perhaps even the expansion looming all points taking Dubois, again just a guess.

  34. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Why did Columbus’s GM pick Pierre Luc Dubois overJesse Puljujarvi?

    Maybe he noticed that Dubois produced more 5-on-5 primary points / 60 than Seguin, Tavares, Landeskog, and Stamkos in his draft year, plays C, and had no negatives on his scouting reports re: size, speed, 2-way ability or work ethic, and hockey bloodlines (father was a pro). Ignored the fear of the Q.

  35. --hudson-- says:

    The more you see of Reilly Smith, the more I think Chiarelli didn’t do too badly on the Seguin trade. I think the trade was Seguin for Smith, Erickson and Joe Morrow. Don’t know what happened to Smith in Boston but he’s a really good player now.

  36. who says:

    Brantford Boy: My guess is he saw a very young kind (ie: immature) that spoke almost no English and foresaw a gap in development time compared to Dubois being that Puljujarvi would need to transition to the N. American game away from family/friends.This coupled with the trade of Ryan Johansen Nashville making his centre depth weak and perhaps even the expansion looming all points taking Dubois, again just a guess.

    They picked Dubois cause they wanted a potential #1 center to replace Johansen. Looks like a pretty astute move seeing as how Dubois is already playing in that spot.
    Any other reason is just speculation.

  37. Bobcaygeon says:

    Jaxon: Maybe he noticed that Dubois produced more 5-on-5 primary points / 60 than Seguin, Tavares, Landeskog, and Stamkos in his draft year, plays C, and had no negatives on his scouting reports re: size, speed, 2-way ability or work ethic, and hockey bloodlines (father was a pro). Ignored the fear of the Q.

    Kekalainen also was the general manager of the Finish elite league for years, his drafting is very good. doesn’t seem to mind taking the risks others balk at.

  38. Bobcaygeon says:

    GCW_69:
    Trading the pick this year with an expansion draft looming is a foolish move, but Pete might be desperate enough too do it anyway.I worry he isn’t smart enough to extract the additional value expansion exempt players should be worth, so it will be a double hit. The final hit will come when the oilers have to pay Seattle to protect the player he acquires, possibly an additional first round pick.

    I think they’ll consider the expansion draft ,but I’ll stand by my statement that I think Chiarelli is in desperation mode now.

  39. Jaxon says:

    Zadina – I think he might be the Yakupov/Daigle/Stefan/Filitov of this year’s draft. He reminds me of Yak in stride and shot. I’m not sure his wrist shot (which he almost sues exclusively) beats NHL goalies (I know maybe we shouldn’t expect it to, but if sniping is his calling card it should be more special, no?). I don’t think his release is often that fast either. And many of his highlight reel goals were scored when he had a basically empty net. Not sure that is translatable to the NHL. Will he have that many open net opportunities? I don’t see him as dynamic and his highlight reels never show any passes, which makes me question his vision and creativity. Svechnikov’s highlight reels, on the other hand, are jaw dropping in every way. I’m not sure how they ended up being interchangeable in some people’s minds as #2 and #3.

  40. Oilman99 says:

    zatch:
    I sure hope we move the pick. In the range we’ll likely be drafting in, that guy likely isn’t much use to the team 2 years at the earliest, perhaps as late as 4 or 5 if he’s D. That’s burning right through McDavid’s prime. It’s too late to draft and follow, that should have been done better in the past. Move the pick for help now.

    I also think, as has been noted above, that someone moves for the sake of cap space. We’ll see who, but I can’t see them stumbling along this summer. Things need to happen, and happen soon.

    zatch:
    I sure hope we move the pick. In the range we’ll likely be drafting in, that guy likely isn’t much use to the team 2 years at the earliest, perhaps as late as 4 or 5 if he’s D. That’s burning right through McDavid’s prime. It’s too late to draft and follow, that should have been done better in the past. Move the pick for help now.

    I also think, as has been noted above, that someone moves for the sake of cap space. We’ll see who, but I can’t see them stumbling along this summer. Things need to happen, and happen soon.

    If you want a team that is competetive for an extended period of time, you need to retain the draft picks to have a pipeline of minor league players. This something the Oilers have not had. Just look at how the Jets got to where they are today,producing players from within.

  41. Primetime says:

    Rondo:
    Why did Columbus’s GM pick Pierre Luc Dubois overJesse Puljujarvi?

    I agree with most of the other responses to this question…had less to do with Jesse and more to do what Dubois was…a big, skilled centre…what every team desires, especially one that traded away their #1 centre for Seth Jones.

    Rumor was that Montreal was trying to trade up to our spot (#4) to grab Dubois because they have the same glaring need. For the same reason, I think Montreal is so desperate they will go slightly “off the board” and take Veleno at #4. They may try to trade down a spot or two, but only if they are sure no one will take him first, as he is the the only legit centre at the top of the draft (shocking really).

    Because of this, I am betting that Wahlstrom will be there at #9 when we pick…

  42. McSorley33 says:

    Confused,

    You think Boqvist will be around at #9?

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Rondo:
    Why did Columbus’s GM pick Pierre Luc Dubois overJesse Puljujarvi?

    – In an alternative universe:

    – Hall: LT thinks part of the reason we did that trade was because of Pool

    – And Strome: was because we needed a cheap 3C (like Dubois would in our org chart now)

    – All because we got lucky, Columbus “screwed up” and we got that “bum” Pool

    – Had we drafted Dubois: we could have kept Hall and Ebs:

    RNH-CMD-Ebs
    Hall-Drai-Kailer
    Caggs-Dubois-Sleppy
    YourMom-MyMom-HisMom

    Klef-Demers
    Sek-Russel
    Nurse-Benning

    – Way better goals, way worse D’ing

  44. Pink Socks says:

    I don’t believe that pick gets moved unless it’s down to add additional picks. The organization cannot afford to go into the 2019-2020 season without a significant add to the prospect pool. That 1st round pick is gold, even at #9.

    As for #9, it is not unreasonable to think that one of Boqvist or Bouchard could slip a la Cam Fowler. If one of the two RHD’s fall, or for some reason Wahlstrom drops, use the pick. Otherwise dropping and adding additional picks IMO is the way to go.

    And I’d be willing to wager that if Montreal picks 4-7, they choose the homegrown PQ boy in Veleno. They can’t help themselves.

  45. Oilman99 says:

    Jaxon: Maybe he noticed that Dubois produced more 5-on-5 primary points / 60 than Seguin, Tavares, Landeskog, and Stamkos in his draft year, plays C, and had no negatives on his scouting reports re: size, speed, 2-way ability or work ethic, and hockey bloodlines (father was a pro). Ignored the fear of the Q.

    Being close to the Finnish juniors,I think he saw JP was not mature enough,and his stats were inflated having played with Lienne.

  46. Jaxon says:

    Bobcaygeon: I don’t believe you can have Maroon and Lucic on the same team. It would have to be one or the other. preferably Maroon at a much lower CAP hit.

    I don’t believe you can have Maroon and Lucic on the same team. It would have to be one or the other. preferably Maroon at a much lower CAP hit.

    Fixed.

  47. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    Why did Columbus’s GM pick Pierre Luc Dubois overJesse Puljujarvi?

    He needed a centre. And he has an impeccable knack of recognizing forward talent. Big centres like Dubois and Draisaitl are scarce.

  48. Pink Socks says:

    On another note, I tried the tankathon (highly recommended) draft lottery simulator and after a couple of tries I got exactly what I wanted.

    1. NYI via CGY
    2. EDM
    3. NYI

    Calgary will burn, the Oil get the Russian highlight reel, and NYI becomes relevant again for Tavares.

    One can dream.

  49. Oilman99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Not sure what you’re thinking here,the Oilers didn’t even have the chance to pick Dubois so nothing makes sense. Where they probably screwed up is taking JP,not Tkachuk who was obviously NHL ready.

  50. Pink Socks says:

    jtblack: & ARMCHAIR

    VELENO could be Good, we are all guessing for the most part.I think People over value him based on his exceptional status.

    If you just look at his 16 yr old numbers and then this year, I see Jason Bosignore 2.0. // Matt Stajan 2.0
    Outside of his burst after the trade, hes been a 1 PPG guy, including the playoffs this year.Nothing that screams Top 10 pick.

    In fairness, I have never seen him play. I just beleive there are more dynamic players who will be avail at #9.
    WE WAIT

    I agree with this sentiment fully. I have watched a couple of games to get a glimpse of Safin and Veleno was exceptionally not exceptional. Since receiving his exceptional status he has underperformed expectations. Obviously not to state he can’t become a star, but I too see a Stajan 2.0 in his future.

  51. McSorley33 says:

    I think I lean towards Dobson ( given where we are picking)….yes, I am picking for a *desperate* team need.

    Bring balance to the Dcore.

  52. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Oilman99:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Not sure what you’re thinking here,the Oilers didn’t even have the chance to pick Dubois so nothing makes sense. Where they probably screwed up is taking JP,not Tkachuk who was obviously NHL ready.

    – Oh yeah, your right: I forgot that Columbus just took him, was thinking we moved up a spot. Thanks I updated my comment

    – Anyway when that happened, there was euphoria here

    – Had Columbus picked Pool, and we had Dubois: that’s genesis of my “fantasy roster”

  53. Pink Socks says:

    Oilman99:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Not sure what you’re thinking here,the Oilers didn’t even have the chance to pick Dubois so nothing makes sense. Where they probably screwed up is taking JP,not Tkachuk who was obviously NHL ready.

    In hindsight, yes picking Tkachuk or Sergachev could have been the better play, but just imagine this place on 2016 draft day had the gift of JP dropped in our laps and we passed.

  54. leadfarmer says:

    Brantford Boy,

    I agree. I think JP is on thin ice with management. There got to be a reason they didnt give him time with Mcdavid even when the season was burned. I mean Ty Rattie got the job over him

    I’m guessing its something stupid like he played video games and ate pizza over working out every day last offseason or something

  55. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pink Socks: In hindsight, yes picking Tkachuk or Sergachev could have been the better play, but just imagine this place on 2016 draft day had the gift of JP dropped in our laps and we passed.

    – I always bought into the “Pool has the most tools but he has the most development and filling out and maturing to do” Never saw him as elite goal-scorer, but an elite all-round 5-tool winger

  56. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    I like to imagine that JP loses the job to Rattie because 97 has more pull than we realize and when push came to shove and the only thing 97 was playing for was Art Ross, he got 93 and someone who could keep up but not go offside. Unlikely but I really want the buck to stop at 97s team.

    Holy hell I am actually excited for the world championships for once.

    97 is how I get non hockey fans to watch hockey.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – In an alternative universe:

    – Hall: LT thinks part of the reason we did that trade was because of Pool

    – And Strome: was because we needed a cheap 3C (like Dubois would in our org chart now)

    – All because we got lucky, Columbus “screwed up” and we got that “bum” Pool

    – Had we drafted Dubois: we could have kept Hall and Ebs:

    RNH-CMD-Ebs
    Hall-Drai-Kailer
    Caggs-Dubois-Sleppy
    YourMom-MyMom-HisMom

    Klef-Demers
    Sek-Russel
    Nurse-Benning

    – Way better goals, way worse D’ing

    If CLB had drafted Puljujarvi, Chairelli would have either traded that pick or RNH – or both. No way all three guys are on our roster today.

  58. ArmchairGM says:

    McSorley33:
    I think I lean towards Dobson ( given where we are picking)….yes, I am picking for a *desperate* team need.

    Bring balance to the Dcore.

    Not as high on Dobson as some. If you watch his games, nothing really stands out. I would sooner take Merkley.

  59. Cassandra says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – In an alternative universe:

    – Hall: LT thinks part of the reason we did that trade was because of Pool

    – And Strome: was because we needed a cheap 3C (like Dubois would in our org chart now)

    – All because we got lucky, Columbus “screwed up” and we got that “bum” Pool

    – Had we drafted Dubois: we could have kept Hall and Ebs:

    RNH-CMD-Ebs
    Hall-Drai-Kailer
    Caggs-Dubois-Sleppy
    YourMom-MyMom-HisMom

    Klef-Demers
    Sek-Russel
    Nurse-Benning

    – Way better goals, way worse D’ing

    Correction. Way better goals, same Defense.

  60. Cassandra says:

    Even if you don’t hate Chiarelli as I do, it is terrible business to have a general manager in a must-win situation.

    This was the problem with the Larsson–Lucic–Reinhart suite of moves from the start. They were win-now moves that didn’t do enough to win-now. So the longterm has already been sacrificed and the team didn’t win.

    You guys are underestimating how cap screwed the Oilers are. The best that can be done is to keep the current players and hope the ELC guys turn into stars.

    Trading the first round pick would be an abject disaster. The only value in trading a first round pick is to hedge against the risk by getting the relative certainty of an established player. However, this team has flushed so much talent down the drain they need to be taking more risks, not fewer.

  61. digger50 says:

    Bobcaygeon: I don’t believe you can have Maroon and Lucic on the same team. It would have to be one or the other. preferably Maroon at a much lower CAP hit.

    Maroon can be just the example here.

    But in regards to Maroon, I agree he is not the perfect fit. Or actually he is but we have Milan as you point out.

    I think he’s a good line in the sand however. Despite what people think of his speed, we know he can get 20 goals. With another player type, let’s go back and use Eberle, he may get 25 goals but at double the price. We may get good production out of A Domi or someone else, but it may be a gamble and we don’t need any more risk, we need those 20 goals.

  62. pts2pndr says:

    Bobcaygeon: I don’t believe you can have Maroon and Lucic on the same team. It would have to be one or the other. preferably Maroon at a much lower CAP hit.

    They were both on a team that had 103 points! While not ideal it sure beats what u were suggesting chiarelli will/may do. Play a healthy current roster in positions they can be successful and you are back in the playoffs. Players traded from non playoff teams have less value on the market! Making changes and creating more or different holes and or cap hell is like throwing good money after bad!

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wahlstrom isn’t a center, is he?

  64. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    “Trading the first round pick would be an abject disaster. The only value in trading a first round pick is to hedge against the risk by getting the relative certainty of an established player. ”

    +1

    A quick look at the Talent teams have landed in the #9 & #10 hole over the last 5 years, says we keep the pick.

  65. Jethro Tull says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    I like to imagine that JP loses the job to Rattie because 97 has more pull than we realize and when push came to shove and the only thing 97 was playing for was Art Ross, he got 93 and someone who could keep up but not go offside. Unlikely but I really want thebuck to stop at 97s team.

    Holy hell I am actually excited for the world championships for once.

    97 is how I get non hockey fans to watch hockey.

    I believe McDavid does have some input into who he plays with, along the lines of “who do you find it easier to play with?”

    I don’t think it’s at “Kunitz is coming to the Olympics over clearly better players, or I’ll sulk” level, though.

  66. digger50 says:

    digger50: Maroon can be just the example here.

    But in regards to Maroon, I agree he is not the perfect fit. Or actually he is but we have Milan as you point out. You

    I think he’s a good line in the sand however. Despite what people think of his speed, we know he can get 20 goals. With another player type, let’s go back and use Eberle, he may get 25 goals but at double the price. We may get good production out of A Domi or someone else, but it may be a gamble and we don’t need any more risk, we need those 20 goals.

    My overall point was I think we can sign a forward for those 20 goals AND keep the pick.

    I’d rather have Maroon (for example) and a developing Wahlstrom or Smith – than a Hoffman who eats up all available cap space.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Current plan is for SEA expansion to happen in two year, after the 2019/20 season with parameters that essentially mirror the Vegas expansion draft. This means the newly drafted player is exempt and even if expansion is delayed by a year, unless the player plays in the NHL or AHL this year, still exempt.

    Yes, moves can (and will) be made prior to the expansion draft but, with current roster construction, we have 3 NMCs that must be protected. Disposing of the Lucic contract by trade prior to the expansion draft seems very hard and he can’t be bought out. The other two could be traded potentially as their NMCs become limited, however, we could be forced to retain and/or take back a crappy contract – it depends. Either way, being forced to move a player with a limited NMC and a high cap hit b/c of expansion will be a tough move.

    As it stands now, we would likely protect:

    Lucic, McDavid, Drai, Nuge

    Sekera, Russell, Nurse, Klebom

    Right now, without any acquisition, we are set up to lose a player like Larsson, Puljijarvi, etc.

    Imagine if we add another player that needs to be protected – we could lose that player or a Klefbom or a Nuge.

    Yes, as I stated above, moves can (and will) be made to get rid of a NMC prior to protecting it but, given the above, the expansion draft MUST be taken in to consideration in every move going forward.

  68. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Wonder if they will get the expansion draft in before the lockout

  69. trencan says:

    I personally think Canucks wll go after top D, they already have a lot of talented forwards in their system. One of Dahlin, Boqvist, Hughes will be in Vancouver this summer.

    Wahlstrom is interesting player, has fantastic numbers but I am not sure how real they are. He played with future #1 overall 2019 Jak Hughes and top draft pick this year Farabee. I also believe he is winger, not C.

    Joe Veleno in my opinion belongs to top 10 and I personally think he may be alternative option to RNH in the future.

    It depends on situation but maybe trading down this year is not bad idea.

  70. vinotintazo says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sekera, Russell,

    AFAIK Their NMC become NTC (submit a list of teams) after next year. so We can move either or both of them if necessary and even buy them out.

    Edit: I guess you mentioned this. But I don’t even worry about this two being protected yet. It all depends on who is the better one this year likely the other one gets shipped out.

    I’m just hoping Peter doesn’t add an asset that needs to be protected making us expose him in two years (Like Reinhart).

  71. Bulging Twine says:

    I agree with some of you, Chiarelli knows he’s pretty much outta here if they don’t make the playoffs next year and so the #1 pick is in play. That’s good for Chiarelli, is it good for the Oilers?

  72. Jethro Tull says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Wonder if they will get the expansion draft in before the lockout

    Expansion lockout! Your inaugural season is a lockout. That would be so NHL.

    Piss off the fans whilst asking them to pony up for a new team…..

  73. Bulging Twine says:

    trencan:
    I personally think Canucks wll go after top D, they already have a lot of talented forwards in their system. One of Dahlin, Boqvist, Hughes will be in Vancouver this summer.

    Benning even said this in his year end presser. That they want to draft a Dman.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    vinotintazo: AFAIK Their NMC become NTC (submit a list of teams) after next year. so We can move either or both of them if necessary and even buy them out.

    Russell will have a limited NTC with a NMC so he will need to be protected if not disposed of.

    Sekera, on 2nd look, will only have the limited NTC so we won’t have to protect him which is actually a massive difference.

  75. Bobcaygeon says:

    pts2pndr: They were both on a team that had 103 points! While not ideal it sure beats what u were suggesting chiarelli will/may do. Play a healthy current roster in positions they can be successful and you are back in the playoffs. Players traded from non playoff teams have less value on the market! Making changes and creating more or different holes and or cap hell is like throwing good money after bad!

    I’m not convinced that the 103 point team was as good as it was and they had a lot of luck.
    Both players are redundant in style and ability, if you have watched the LVN play they are utterly relentless on the pucks, both Lucic and Maroon can’t play that way and having both on the team leaves your team that much slower. IMHO

  76. digger50 says:

    For me, A good summer for Chiarelli would involve him doing some difficult Gming. So far we see he can do the easy deals, those are when you give away too much money or better value in a trade.

    Let’s see if he can move one of the difficult contracts. Those are tough, but have been done in the past.

    And let’s see if he can identify and secure an upcoming talented goaltender ready to play 30 games.

  77. Jaxon says:

    Regarding the expansion draft, I could see Russell getting bought out this summer and Sekera traded next summer for pennies on the dollar. Expansion is another reason they need to find another goalie to challenge Talbot like Pavel Francouz.

  78. Bobcaygeon says:

    Cassandra:
    Even if you don’t hate Chiarelli as I do, it is terrible business to have a general manager in a must-win situation.

    This was the problem with the Larsson–Lucic–Reinhart suite of moves from the start.They were win-now moves that didn’t do enough to win-now.So the longterm has already been sacrificed and the team didn’t win.

    You guys are underestimating how cap screwed the Oilers are.The best that can be done is to keep the current players and hope the ELC guys turn into stars.

    Trading the first round pick would be an abject disaster.The only value in trading a first round pick is to hedge against the risk by getting the relative certainty of an established player.However, this team has flushed so much talent down the drain they need to be taking more risks, not fewer.

    I agree with this, very good comment.

    However, it goes against what Chiarelli has done in the past and I do believe he’s at or feels the “must-win” situation.
    He wont be able to accomplish what he needs without off loading contracts so……We really could see any type of scenarios..
    The one that scares me the most is RNH and Klefbom plus the 1st rounder…….This will cement his legacy forever….

  79. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Russell will have a limited NTC with a NMC so he will need to be protected if not disposed of.

    Sekera, on 2nd look, will only have the limited NTC so we won’t have to protect him with is actually a massive difference.

    Nice find! I thought they both had to be protected too. So if they get rid of Russell, then it may only be Lucic unless they give Talbot a NMC on his next contract. Hopefully, they are smart enough not to and that should also be a reason to bring some urgency into finding a replacement goalie sooner rather than later. Ahem, Francouz?! If they find a better goalie, exposing Talbot would be a major coup as he might look pretty attractive to Seattle.

  80. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    1) Sek in 2019 can be moved: his NTC is “modified”
    2) Russel in 2019 can be moved: his NTC is “modified” (and he’s cheap in last year)
    3) Lucic: with apologies to Cassandra: he’s tradeable, and it’s interesting how his salary is structured, so that its lower, and makes sense for a cap-team

    – There was method to these structures, all three players cost only money, and the plan was to have them all “bridges” that are moveable if/when the younger D emerge

    – Russel and Sek: they are good candidates to get traded after next year anyways IMO, assuming a Bear or whoever is ready, and Nurse progresses

    – Lots of teams gave up stuff as well for Vegas to pick who they wanted: same for Seattle

    – If Sek is done, they put him on LTIR. If Lucic’s back is too rounded, they put him on LTIR

    – Agree that for the expansion, you keep the 1st though as he’s protected

    – Highly doubtful a Larsson or Pool (assuming he’s worth protecting) won’t be protected

    * probably another reason to bring in a big brain cap guy with more chops that Scott as well..

  81. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I don’t get the Athanasiou love. He’s a 30 point player, he’s been difficult with the Wings. He’s fast but he doesn’t finish, as in Strome is smart and doesn’t finish.

    Also, Lucic’s relative numbers weren’t bad this year even if he was supremely snake bit.

    He’s overpaid for his offense but is a good candidate to recover to established levels.

    He’s not the biggest problem on the roster.

    I’m more concerned with goalers and losing any more talent. I’d love to see Russell swapped out for a better RD but not likely, I imagine he showed well to whatever the team uses as metrics.

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Someone who no one today thinks will be available at 9, will be available at 9.

    I’ve been following the draft somewhat closely since I discovered lowetide.blogspot.com around 10 years ago or so and the draft order *never* goes as everyone thinks as far down as 9.

    Whether its ANA being the Actual Smartest Guys in the Room and taking Lindholm at #6 when most had him in the teens or its Fowler dropping from a pre-draft ranking of 3rd to ANA (of all fucking people) at #12, someone always drops.

    Then it creates this fear among teams that a player is dropping for a reason that they don’t know and they stay away too.

    “Well if Bob isn’t taking him, there must be something wrong”

    That’s how Fowler gets picked 2 spots AFTER Dylan McIlrath and Barzal slides to #16.

    Happens every year and you hope the team you cheer for is:

    1) Smart
    2) Doesn’t give a fuck that Bob passed on a player they rate highly and trust their board.

  83. Bobcaygeon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    1) Sek in 2019 can be moved: his NTC is “modified”
    2) Russel in 2019 can be moved: his NTC is “modified” (and he’s cheap in last year)
    3) Lucic: with apologies to Cassandra: he’s tradeable, and it’s interesting how his salary is structured, so that its lower, and makes sense for a cap-team

    – There was method to these structures, all three players cost only money, and the plan was to have them all “bridges” that are moveable if/when the younger D emerge

    – Russel and Sek: they are good candidates to get traded after next year anyways IMO, assuming a Bear or whoever is ready, and Nurse progresses

    – Lots of teams gave up stuff as well for Vegas to pick who they wanted: same for Seattle

    – If Sek is done, they put him on LTIR.If Lucic’s back is too rounded, they put him on LTIR

    – Agree that for the expansion, you keep the 1st though as he’s protected

    – Highly doubtful a Larsson or Pool (assuming he’s worth protecting) won’t be protected

    * probably another reason to bring in a big brain cap guy with more chops that Scott as well..

    I tend to look at the positives such as anybody can be traded and there are deals to be made in regards to expansion draft. We know this from what happened with LV expansion.

  84. John Chambers says:

    Would you trade Lucic with $1M retained for Scott Darling?

    The Oilers would still own $5M on the books for the next three seasons, and would then alleviate their financial burden down to $1M for years 4 and 5.

    For the Canes the deal is actually financially defensible, because after Lucic receives his rich signing bones on July 1, there are only something like $20M in actual dollars payable over the final 5 years.

    To consider:
    – Darling probably has nothing to offer us, and is even poor value as a backup over his remaining 3 years.
    – Even buying Darling out there is a total savings of ~$3.6M / year. Can you find a winger to replace Lucic for $3.6M?
    – Can Lucic recover any of his playing ability from prior to Christmas? Or was he so shitty that taking back a virtually useless player to save $3M / year is defensible.

    I probably say ‘no’ to the trade, hope that Lucic can be a 40-point contributor, and hang onto him for three more seasons until his contract becomes more tradeable.

    But yeeesh, bad that we’d even consider a move like this.

  85. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Someone who no one today thinks will be available at 9, will be available at 9.

    I’ve been following the draft somewhat closely since I discoveredlowetide.blogspot.com around 10 years ago or so and the draft order *never* goes as everyone thinks as far down as 9.

    Whether its ANA being the Actual Smartest Guys in the Room and taking Lindholm at #6 when most had him in the teens or its Fowler dropping from a pre-draft ranking of 3rd to ANA (of all fucking people) at #12, someone always drops.

    Then it creates this fear among teams that a player is dropping for a reason that they don’t know and they stay away too.

    “Well if Bob isn’t taking him, there must be something wrong”

    That’s how Fowler gets picked 2 spots AFTER Dylan McIlrath and Barzal slides to #16.

    Happens every year and you hope the team you cheer for is:

    1) Smart
    2) Doesn’t give a fuck that Bob passed on a player they rate highly and trust their board.

    This is why I’m a fan of John Chayka. He doesn’t seem bothered by the “GM psychology” that has made everyone allergic to Antti Rantaa, pick mediocre talents ahead of Keller, or that saw Jacob Chykrun fall to the point where Detroit was willing to move down to enable Arizona to draft him.

    Lots of little smart moves. Getting Darcy Kuemper fits that pattern as well. Demers tambien.

  86. Rondo says:

    I have no faith in Peter Chiarelli . I worry he will trade the first rd pick for a healthy scratch player in the playoffs like Damon Severson.

  87. Cassandra says:

    John Chambers,

    Darling was the worst goalie in the league this year on an awful contract.

    Great trade for the Oilers.

  88. giddy says:

    Bulging Twine:
    I agree with some of you, Chiarelli knows he’s pretty much outta here if they don’t make the playoffs next year and so the #1 pick is in play.That’s good for Chiarelli, is it good for the Oilers?

    I do worry about this. Last thing you want is Chiarelli becoming even more reckless than he has already been in desperation to save face and get the Oilers back into the playoffs, without simultaneously playing a long term outlook game (something this team has badly needed, since, well, ever). I also worry that will be the upper guys such as Nicholson’s view on it as well, because playoffs generate an insane amount of profit. I’ve heard numbers thrown around that the OEG was earning $6m in profit per home game in the playoffs (barely having to pay players, highly inflated ticket prices, + all of the revenue of the hype). That’s $18m profit coming into the Katz group pocket. The heat is going to be on to make the playoffs for everyone in the organization.

    I just don’t know the answer some days to the Oilers woes. Sometimes, as painful it is to think and against every hockey bone in my body, the best move for this organization’s success would be to trade McDavid for any team willing to absolutely clear their cupboards and established players for him. Akin to the Gretzky trade, but instead of pure cash, you actually receive a solid team that you can build around. Imagine the Oilers trading McDavid, Russell, Benning, Lucic, Brossoit and Sekera to receive Getzlaf, Rakell, Manson, Montour, Lindholm, Gibson, their 2018 1st/2nd, 2019 1st/2nd, and any grade A prospects they have.

    Which team truly comes out better? Probably the Oilers. It’d be hard to replace points lost by moving McDavid obviously with only having Getzlaf and Rakell as replacements, but imagine having a goalie tandem of Gibson/Talbot, top 3 centres of Getzlaf, Draisaitl and Nuge, a d-corp of Lindholm, Manson, Montour, Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson, and an entire cupboard full of picks and prospects. No more boat anchor contracts in Russell and Lucic. Would Anaheim ever do the deal? The crowds McDavid brings into their otherwise poor arena attendance might make them do it alone.

    Sorry, this was an awful post. I won’t do it again.

  89. Doug McLachlan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – In an alternative universe:

    – Hall: LT thinks part of the reason we did that trade was because of Pool

    – And Strome: was because we needed a cheap 3C (like Dubois would in our org chart now)

    – All because we got lucky, Columbus “screwed up” and we got that “bum” Pool

    – Had we drafted Dubois: we could have kept Hall and Ebs:

    RNH-CMD-Ebs
    Hall-Drai-Kailer
    Caggs-Dubois-Sleppy
    YourMom-MyMom-HisMom

    Klef-Demers
    Sek-Russel
    Nurse-Benning

    – Way better goals, way worse D’ing

    Of course had we drafted a center, perhaps we are trading Nuge instead of Eberle.

    No certainty that Demers signs here if the Larsson deal does not happen – no certainty, IMO, that we don’t deal Hall regardless.

    If I recall the verbal here the thought was that Tkachuk was the forward option had it gone Mathews, Laine, Puljujarvi and we might have tried to trade down with Vancouver to let them get Dubois.

  90. --hudson-- says:

    On trading the first draft pick, from Chiarelli’s press conference:

    Q (Matheson): Do you want to trade your first round? Would your first round be in play?
    Chiarelli: That’s a better question that I’ll engage. At some point, yes I would put that pick in play. It would have to make sense, there’s a whole cluster of D that I like you know, but it would certainly be consistent to what we’re trying to do if we look… Again if we win the lottery or if we╒re in the top three, I’d have to rethink that, but we could end up… well we we╒re nine now, we could end up twelve right, so I’d have to look at it. I wouldn’t rule it out.

    It seems he’s targeting D and will only look to trade if one of them are not available when he picks. I get the sense he’s not looking to trade the pick for immediate help. Later on in the press conference he references the group of 94s and trying to get them to take the next step to enable a ‘gradual churn’. So he’s not just thinking about building an NHL team, he’s also thinking about the pipeline of young players.

    This scouting staff with Keith Gretzky and Vaclav Burda need to work some magic. Something like the 2014 Bruins where it looks like they got NHL players in the 1st (Pastrnak), 2nd (Donato), 4th (Heinen) and 5th round (Bjork).

  91. Woogie63 says:

    Each year we head to the Young Stars Tournament, this year you can see some separation amongst the young talent representing each team, note no drafted college players participate. In the past the Oilers’ have had the best player, not much depth.

    to my eye (an I am sure I have missed someone here) our depth is much improved;

    potential “Young Stars”

    Edmonton 16 “Young Stars”
    C – Marody, Herbig, Vesel, Larkin
    Winger – Benson, Yamamoto, Masksimov, Safin
    Dman – Lagesson, Berglund, Samorukov, (Kemp)
    Goal – Skinner, Wells

    1, 2, and 3 round picks from 2018

    —————————————
    Calgary – 7 “Young Stars”
    C- Dube, Phillips
    Winger – Foo, Joly, Ruzicka
    Dman – Valimaki (Fox)
    Goal – Parson,

    NO 1,2,3 round picks from 2018
    ———————————————–
    Winnipeg – 10 “young Stars”
    C – Harkin, Stallard
    Winger – Suess, Lodge, McKenzie, Vesakunen
    Dman – Green, Stanley
    Goalie – Holm ?

    2, 3 round picks from 2018
    ————————————————
    Vancouver – 15 “Young Stars”
    C – Pettersson, Gaudette, McKenzie
    Winger- Lind, Gadjovich, Stukel, Jasek,
    Dman – Juolevi, Brassard, Gunnersson, Candella
    Goal Dipietro

    1,2,3, round picks from 2018

  92. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Merkley is a 2nd rd pick. He has been a healthy scratch in Junior hockey.

  93. jtblack says:

    The Oilers are paying for 2014 & 2015. They nailed their top picks each year (DRAI, MCD) but eachbyear they didnt ouck again until around #100.

    They have very little talent coming in fro these 2 drafts (3-4 years after); where as a lot of teams are seeing 2,3 or 4 pkayers from each draft make an impact (BOS, WPG, PHI) and more ….

    The Oilers drafted a full slate in 2016 & 2017. They should see that payoff, unfortunatelly not for 2 – 3 more years.

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    That why when that guy slides you run up to the podium and take our guy. Boston showing up drunk to the Mcdavid draft should have killed the Reinhart trade.
    At least my fantasy hockey team is smart enough to pick up Keller, Raanta and Barzal right before their value explodes

  95. Munny says:

    –hudson–: It seems he’s targeting D and will only look to trade if one of them are not available when he picks. I get the sense he’s not looking to trade the pick for immediate help. Later on in the press conference he references the group of 94s and trying to get them to take the next step to enable a ‘gradual churn’. So he’s not just thinking about building an NHL team, he’s also thinking about the pipeline of young players.

    Thank you for posting this. I was going to go looking for it when I read LT’s opening paragraphs. I think there’s a bit of an over-reaction here to Chia possibly trading the picks.

    It’s just good business to let other teams know you’re open to offers but loathe to trade the pick unless you get an offer you can’t refuse.

    Right out of the GM playbook.

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    giddy: I do worry about this. Last thing you want is Chiarelli becoming even more reckless than he has already been in desperation to save face and get the Oilers back into the playoffs, without simultaneously playing a long term outlook game (something this team has badly needed, since, well, ever). I also worry that will be the upper guys such as Nicholson’s view on it as well, because playoffs generate an insane amount of profit. I’ve heard numbers thrown around that the OEG was earning $6m in profit per home game in the playoffs (barely having to pay players, highly inflated ticket prices, + all of the revenue of the hype). That’s $18m profit coming into the Katz group pocket. The heat is going to be on to make the playoffs for everyone in the organization.

    I just don’t know the answer some days to the Oilers woes. Sometimes, as painful it is to think and against every hockey bone in my body, the best move for this organization’s success would be to trade McDavid for any team willing to absolutely clear their cupboards and established players for him. Akin to the Gretzky trade, but instead of pure cash, you actually receive a solid team that you can build around. Imagine the Oilers trading McDavid, Russell, Benning, Lucic, Brossoit and Sekera to receive Getzlaf, Rakell, Manson, Montour, Lindholm, Gibson, their 2018 1st/2nd, 2019 1st/2nd, and any grade A prospects they have.

    Which team truly comes out better? Probably the Oilers. It’d be hard to replace points lost by moving McDavid obviously with only having Getzlaf and Rakell as replacements, but imagine having a goalie tandem of Gibson/Talbot, top 3 centres of Getzlaf, Draisaitl and Nuge, a d-corp of Lindholm, Manson, Montour, Nurse, Klefbom and Larsson, and an entire cupboard full of picks and prospects. No more boat anchor contracts in Russell and Lucic. Would Anaheim ever do the deal? The crowds McDavid brings into their otherwise poor arena attendance might make them do it alone.

    Sorry, this was an awful post. I won’t do it again.

    A McDavid trade suggestion? Blasphemy! Repent, my son!

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    I suggested this a few weeks ago. I would do this trade without hesitation. Sit on Darling for one year (who knows maybe you can get some recovery backup goaltending) and then buy him out. There are no easy ways to get out from under Lucic. cap hit then becomes 1.2 mil, 2.3 mil, 1.2 mil, 1.2 mil for Darlings buyout. If thats all it takes to get rid of Lucic, who also has a NMC with expansion draft in near future, you do it yesterday

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Merkley is a 2nd rd pick. He has been a healthy scratch in Junior hockey.

    Really? Do you have a link? He played 63 OHL games this season and 62 last year as a 16-year-old.

  99. Rondo says:

    ArmchairGM,

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2018/04/2018-nhl-central-scouting-final-rankings.html

    ” I suppose the first thing people will be talking about is where Ryan Merkley is ranked at #45. Which would put him towards the end of the 2nd round or early 3rd.. But I don’t think it’s necessarily surprising. NHL CSS already had Merkley as an early 2nd rounder on their midterm list and he drops even further now. The talent is there, but the late season shenanigans (including the healthy scratch) were bound to hurt him on a list like this. He’s going to need to have a great U18’s and even better combine interviews to climb back into the first round IMO.”

  100. leadfarmer says:

    leadfarmer,

    For comparisons sake, If you buy out Lucic next year your cap hit is, 3.625, 5.625, 4.125, 5.625 million and then 625k x 4 years. Without a doubt this trade is probably the least painful way we would get rid of Lucic

  101. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Someone who no one today thinks will be available at 9, will be available at 9.

    I’ve been following the draft somewhat closely since I discoveredlowetide.blogspot.com around 10 years ago or so and the draft order *never* goes as everyone thinks as far down as 9.

    Whether its ANA being the Actual Smartest Guys in the Room and taking Lindholm at #6 when most had him in the teens or its Fowler dropping from a pre-draft ranking of 3rd to ANA (of all fucking people) at #12, someone always drops.

    Then it creates this fear among teams that a player is dropping for a reason that they don’t know and they stay away too.

    “Well if Bob isn’t taking him, there must be something wrong”

    That’s how Fowler gets picked 2 spots AFTER Dylan McIlrath and Barzal slides to #16.

    Happens every year and you hope the team you cheer for is:

    1) Smart
    2) Doesn’t give a fuck that Bob passed on a player they rate highly and trust their board.

    Exactly this.

    It’s what Howson did so wrong when he made the deal with the Flyers the night before the draft.

    Had he known that Couturier would fall to his spot he might not have made the deal, or at least extracted more value from it.

    Chiarelli has been a catastrophe in many ways but we can hope that based on his decision not to make a move once he figured out that JP would fall to 4 *might* suggest that if he is really intent on trading away the pick he will at least wait until the pick is up.

    Of course then Garth Snow will amble over and pitch the 9th and a 2nd for Boychuk.

  102. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    ArmchairGM,

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2018/04/2018-nhl-central-scouting-final-rankings.html

    ” I suppose the first thing people will be talking about is where Ryan Merkley is ranked at #45. Which would put him towards the end of the 2nd round or early 3rd.. But I don’t think it’s necessarily surprising. NHL CSS already had Merkley as an early 2nd rounder on their midterm list and he drops even further now. The talent is there, but the late season shenanigans (including the healthy scratch) were bound to hurt him on a list like this. He’s going to need to have a great U18’s and even better combine interviews to climb back into the first round IMO.”

    Very interesting! I would love to get this guy early in the 2nd round – he’s got immense talent. Yes he’ll take 4 years to arrive in Edmonton (he has to learn to play D first), but when he comes he’ll be a delightful addition.

    Here’s hoping!

  103. McSorley33 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Not as high on Dobson as some. If you watch his games, nothing really stands out. I would sooner take Merkley.
    **********************************************************************************************
    To be candid, I am not either. But massive need.

    Merkley reminds me of Ryan Murphy….

  104. McSorley33 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Well said.

    Happens every year in the NFL….

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    McSorley33:
    ArmchairGM,

    Not as high on Dobson as some. If you watch his games, nothing really stands out. I would sooner take Merkley.
    **********************************************************************************************
    To be candid, I am not either. But massive need.

    Merkley reminds me of Ryan Murphy….

    I can certainly see parallels between those two players. Why then is Boqvist – a similar player-type on paper – ranked so high?

  106. Oilin4 says:

    John Chambers:
    Would you trade Lucic with $1M retained for Scott Darling?

    The Oilers would still own $5M on the books for the next three seasons, and would then alleviate their financial burden down to $1M for years 4 and 5.

    For the Canes the deal is actually financially defensible, because after Lucic receives his rich signing bones on July 1, there are only something like $20M in actual dollars payable over the final 5 years.

    To consider:
    – Darling probably has nothing to offer us, and is even poor value as a backup over his remaining 3 years.
    – Even buying Darling out there is a total savings of ~$3.6M / year. Can you find a winger to replace Lucic for $3.6M?
    – Can Lucic recover any of his playing ability from prior to Christmas? Or was he so shitty that taking back a virtually useless player to save $3M / year is defensible.

    I probably say ‘no’ to the trade, hope that Lucic can be a 40-point contributor, and hang onto him for three more seasons until his contract becomes more tradeable.

    But yeeesh, bad that we’d even consider a move like this.

    Option 3: See if Lucic rebounds and, if not, try a trade like this after July 1, 2019. Hell, even if he does rebound, may be worth trading before we get to the worst part of his (and everyone’s) inevitable age-related

  107. Oilin4 says:

    Been watching this LA – VGK series thinking: how on Earth are we ever going to overcome this Vegas team? Fast, well coached, young. Well they gotta sign these guys and have no prospect depth. Right?

    Then I look into them some more and see they drafted a number of good prospects, and have $30M+ in cap space next season with which to lock down or replace Neal, Karlsson, Theodore, and Miller. Will still have some walking around money to ADD to this team. Yikes.

    The new mountain to climb is Vegas, not ANA or SJ. And it’s a tall mountain.

    Or, we get shifted to the Central after Seattle expansion and the mountain is WPG and NSH. Double yikes.

  108. Jethro Tull says:

    She said, “don’t I know you from the cinematographer’s party?”

    And I said, “who am I to blow against the wind?”

  109. Doug McLachlan says:

    Everyone seems to be estimating the cap to be $80M. A $5M increase in the cap would be good news for teams, like the Oilers, who have cap issues but from what I’m reading, are we actually underestimating what is about to happen?

    The estimates I have heard from Friedman and Lebrun for the 2018-19 cap seem consistently reported as $78M-$82M.

    What is unclear to me is whether this range is based on uncertainty about revenues for the end of the year or uncertainty about the NHLPA using the full 5% of the escalator? (Or perhaps a combination of the two.)

    I’ve looked through various reports and while they all give the range (and some mention the NHLPA escalator) it’s never clear if this number already includes the potential escalator or not.

    If it does, then the NHL must be very certain about revenues from here on in since the gap from $78M to $82M is almost exactly 5%. Even if that is the case and the NHL is very confident in $78M based on revenue alone, then we are probably looking at a cap closer to $82M given the PA’s history of using the full 5% escalator. IIRC the only exception to the full amount was last year where the normal escrow-“my turn” debate, which always went to the “my turn” proponents, had to factor in the element of 23 shiny new NHLPA roster spots in Vegas. Even still, the PA chose to use an escalator of, again going by memory, around 2.5%.

    Do our cap concerns with the Oilers decrease significantly (RHD, scoring veteran winger AND solid backup goalie) with an $82M cap?

  110. leadfarmer says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Cap escalator keeps being used but players absolutely hate it and will be a big reason for the lockout

  111. Jethro Tull says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    The cap will go up when Lou says it will go up.

  112. WayneKenov says:

    Here’s an idea I haven’t seen before, but Elias Lindholm is an rfa this year, and we could potentially OS him for up to 3.9 mil and only give up a second rounder. I wouldn’t blow my brains out on him, but with the possible cheapness of Carolina, you may be able to swipe a second liner away, and he is certainly a better deal than Strome. Carolina has to pay Hanifan this year, and I’m not sure the new owner has interest in paying to the cap (or even near it).

    His GF% isn’t great, but he is good in CF%i, HDCF%, SCF%, and HDGF%. Not sure what that means, but his PDO has always been pretty low as well. He is also good on draws, and puts up 40ish points a season, although not a prolific goal scorer. He was noted for good defensive play, hard work, etc in his scouting report.

  113. jtblack says:

    Essentially Calgary gave up a similiar package to obtain Hamonic as they did Hamilton.

    Hamilton was maybe worth it.

    Hamonic definitely not.

  114. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon:
    Regarding the expansion draft, I could see Russell getting bought out this summer and Sekera traded next summer for pennies on the dollar. Expansion is another reason they need to find another goalie to challenge Talbot like Pavel Francouz.

    This is a strong reason why the Oilers need to ask their restricted movement players to waive now. The awful season is a compelling and legit reason, use the owner as cover.

    Ideally they move Lucic and Russell and expose Sekera at the poaching party for Seattle.

    Use the cap to fill in, take picks as payment and protect 7/3.

    I don’t think they will. But it would be smart.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Brantford Boy,

    I agree.I think JP is on thin ice with management.There got to be a reason they didnt give him time with Mcdavid even when the season was burned.I mean Ty Rattie got the job over him

    I’m guessing its something stupid like he played video games and ate pizza over working out every day last offseason or something

    Peter said the opposite in his avail.

    Not playing a player above his established NHL ability is a good thing.

    I have no doubt that JP’s established NHL ability will do nothing but rise over the next couple of years.

    I think they know what they have in him.

    There’s an argument that he’s ready for top 6 minutes today, but arguing that when he played in that spot and as 3RW in the NHL means the org thinks the same, not different.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: Correction.Way better goals, same Defense.

    Correction:

    Way better goals, very slightly worse Defense.

    I rate Demers below Larsson, but I still rate him as an Actual NHL Top 4 Dman.

  117. Wilde says:

    Yeah I’ve said this before, I have a feeling it’ll be the pick.

    – Klefbom has been mentioned by the media in future plans

    – Chiarelli drafted 98, he’s less likely to deal elite talent when it’s ‘his guy’

    – Nugent-Hopkins has been mentioned by the media and by Chiarelli himself in future plans

    Here’s the players picked at 9 since 2010:

    Mikael Granlund
    Dougie Hamilton
    Jacob Trouba
    Bo Horvat
    Nik Ehlers
    Timo Meier
    Mikael Sergachev
    Micheal Rasmussen

    So yeah, absolute fucking madness in the face of an expansion draft, when the team is more than the return of the trade away from contender status.

    I’m looking forward to it.

    Just kidding, we’re winning a lottery.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I always bought into the “Pool has the most tools but he has the most development and filling out and maturing to do”Never saw him as elite goal-scorer, but an elite all-round 5-tool winger

    Agreed.

    His Relative Teammate GF% will be very good through his career because he helps on both side of the ledger.

    Lehtinin with more offense and that’s uber valuable.

  119. Munny says:

    Toronto trying to sing a national anthem like they were Edmontonians…

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers:
    Would you trade Lucic with $1M retained for Scott Darling?

    The Oilers would still own $5M on the books for the next three seasons, and would then alleviate their financial burden down to $1M for years 4 and 5.

    For the Canes the deal is actually financially defensible, because after Lucic receives his rich signing bones on July 1, there are only something like $20M in actual dollars payable over the final 5 years.

    To consider:
    – Darling probably has nothing to offer us, and is even poor value as a backup over his remaining 3 years.
    – Even buying Darling out there is a total savings of ~$3.6M / year. Can you find a winger to replace Lucic for $3.6M?
    – Can Lucic recover any of his playing ability from prior to Christmas? Or was he so shitty that taking back a virtually useless player to save $3M / year is defensible.

    I probably say ‘no’ to the trade, hope that Lucic can be a 40-point contributor, and hang onto him for three more seasons until his contract becomes more tradeable.

    But yeeesh, bad that we’d even consider a move like this.

    I’ve heard and read that CAR gives up high end rebounds more than CHI and it’s those exact shots that killed Darling this year.

    When I get to a desk top, I’ll try to find it.

    That was a very, very similar problem with EDM this year.

    A hurt 77 and then 6 and no 2 made the slot vs EDM a friendly place.

    If EDM fixes their shit, and health should fix a lot of that… then that’s a great trade.

    I highly doubt I 27 waives for that though.

    VAN,LAK,BOS, MTL maybe, but I doubt CAR.

    It probably depends on what his wife wants to do.

    Happy wife – happy life.

  121. Munny says:

    Lucic will be the first captain of the Seattle Coffee Cups (or whatever they’re calling themselves).

    Bookjie it!!

  122. Bulging Twine says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Doug McLachlan,

    The cap will go up when Lou says it will go up.

    hahaha

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Knights are an interesting study. First Bettman did a solid to the new owners in giving them access to capable players.

    Watching them I noticed they are a tall team. So I checked out their NHL site roster. 3 players under 6’ – Marchessault, Tatar, Hunt.

    JM played last game the other two didn’t.

    I have commented I looked through the top 50 scorers a while back, and there are only a handful of players 5’10 and under.

    I have come to the belief height is very helpful for NHL hockey. Weights fluctuate more than height. Defencemen tend to be taller than forwards and I believe it’s because reach matters a lot to being effective for them.

    The Knights also can all move. I have also irritated many of you with comments about this as well. But can you imagine soccer and slow running players, or football?

    A common denominator among elite athletes is elite mobility in most sports. There are outliers but they are exceptions and trying to draft the next Lucic or Ryan Ellis is a fool’s gambit, the Oilers have wasted a lot of bullets going down that road.

    I agree with our venerable host that the draft is about finding the best talent, the players you can’t get easily or ever outside of it.

    The Oilers can’t afford to miss any picks for a few years. They need players to compete for roster positions. I am hesitant about smallish D with an offensive bent. Defending is the primary job, it’s what the Oilers desperately need, with offensive ability.

    It’s different if a player has rare skill, but if he doesn’t the smart play to find a high end roster player is the one with all of the tools and the least obstacles to overcome.

    It seems in this draft the taller D lack something and I wonder if the shorter guys can translate their games at a high level to the bigs. They already have Benning and Bear. Both struggled with the D side, not that they can’t get better but the physical disadvantage seems to affect them. I really hope Berglund develops.

    Up front we see the same in Caggiula. He brings his game and that is why he gets rewarded- so many of their youth aren’t hard enough on the puck game in and out, and I think that is what they are looking for, especially now that Boston is succeeding. PC will want that for the Oilers.

  124. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    Lucic will be the first captain of the Seattle Coffee Cups (or whatever they’re calling themselves).

    Bookjie it!!

    Seattle Sockeyes
    Genius

  125. Lowetide says:

    I think the NHL gave Vegas a real break based on previous drafts, but credit to the GK management for taking advantage of it. They could have crippled the future with insane free agent deals but instead got some nice young talent. Eventually some will be sent away as the cap number for the team rises, but that was a fabulous run last summer. Seattle will find a more wary group of general managers who have been rightly hammered senseless by their local fan base.

    Edmonton did pretty well by the expansion draft by the way. 🙂

  126. Pescador says:

    Happy wife – happy life.
    Woodguy v2.0,
    No wife – happier life.

  127. GMB3 says:

    What type of bizzaro world are we living in where we preach patience with our management and coaching, yet want to trade our first to be more successful now?

    I’ve read countless posts by the Chia supporters that he has a long term vision and last year we over achieved, Chiarelli wasn’t counting on that kind of success and was planning on building more for the future.

    This despite making a move to “get better right now” trading two high picks for a failing prospect. We are now back to trading more first round picks.

    What is going on. I look at our prospect pipeline and see it bereft of difference makers. I look at our cap situation and it is atrocious.

    The only place to get top talent that can contribute on a low cap hit is at the draft.

    Peter Chiarelli’s “long term vision” has more twists and turns than your favourite whodunit mystery novel.

  128. GMB3 says:

    Lowetide:
    I think the NHL gave Vegas a real break based on previous drafts, but credit to the GK management for taking advantage of it. They could have crippled the future with insane free agent deals but instead got some nice young talent. Eventually some will be sent away as the cap number for the team rises, but that was a fabulous run last summer. Seattle will find a more wary group of general managers who have been rightly hammered senseless by their local fan base.

    Edmonton did pretty well by the expansion draft by the way.

    Peter Chiarelli’s biggest accomplishment might have been trading away enough talent that Griffin Reinhart was the most attractive player exposed to expansion.

    I mean you trade a player who would have been ineligible for expansion for a player to use as a decoy. Brilliant stuff

  129. JimmyV1965 says:

    I don’t have an issue with the Oilers trading the first round pick. I would prefer they trade down though and get something in the first round. I get that the draft is important, but this team won’t go anywhere until it has success in rounds 2-7. Nothing changes until our draft record after the first round improves.

  130. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    Makes the Tatar trade even more curious.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide:
    I think the NHL gave Vegas a real break based on previous drafts, but credit to the GK management for taking advantage of it. They could have crippled the future with insane free agent deals but instead got some nice young talent. Eventually some will be sent away as the cap number for the team rises, but that was a fabulous run last summer. Seattle will find a more wary group of general managers who have been rightly hammered senseless by their local fan base.

    Edmonton did pretty well by the expansion draft by the way.

    Here’s hoping!

  132. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    But Yamamoto was able to be put above established level?
    Developing players need to score and score often. Being put with Strone and Lucic is a checking role.
    I think that there’s a disconnect between brain trust and the player. Thankfully Chia is smart enough to not say it publically.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    GMB3,

    He did get his boss almost 20 mil for one gently used Griffin Reinhart. Now that’s value

  134. WayneKenov says:

    GMB3: Peter Chiarelli’s biggest accomplishment might have been trading away enough talent that Griffin Reinhart was the most attractive player exposed to expansion.

    I mean you trade a player who would have been ineligible for expansion for a player to use as a decoy. Brilliant stuff

    Reminds me of Trump calling himself smart for losing millions to save on taxes.

    The big reason Vegas got a break imo is that they were the only team entering the league, and thus all negotiations ran through them. Unlike the past where you had teams jockeying for various players and the market had some competition. I think Vegas could have done even better to be honest (Dumba left, the weird ANA trade). I’m sure the league will be hamstringing Seattle, but so long as they have that hammer in negotiations, they should be in good shape.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    giddy,

    You should go to the box and feel shame.

  136. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965,

    But… the decision to trade the first rounder is entirely independent of the team’s ability to find value in the later rounds.

    The team can only hit on the first round, so let’s trade the first rounder or trade down?

    Besides that, I’m fairly confident in the drafting rd 2-7 as of late, it’s a little too soon to make conclusions in full confidence, but the team used to make bad picks that were bad picks even on draft day and that’s happened less, especially in the ’16 and ’17 drafts.

  137. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    giddy,

    You should go to the box and feel shame.

    Sin Bin.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    That why when that guy slides you run up to the podium and take our guy.Boston showing up drunk to the Mcdavid draft should have killed the Reinhart trade.
    At least my fantasy hockey team is smart enough to pick up Keller, Raanta and Barzal right before their value explodes

    Acquiring players before their Actual NHL value is known is a key reason why good teams do good and bad teams do bad.

    The draft is Cornucopia of Free Assests so having very good scouts and a *great* person to have the final say on sussing out all comparative value is critical.

    Past that, identifying players with “lower value than they should have” is critical as well.

    The key here is identifying which team are “heavy” in prosepects in one spot so they are more than likley to assign a lesser “relative organizational value” to that player.

    A team with a pretty good 2 RD in the AHL and have Actual NHL RD on their NHL roster will be more likely to internally devalue that player compared to teams that are dying for RD at the NHL level.

    Need multiplies (or divides) value.

    The NHL scouts (imo) and front office staff should first identify which position each NHL team is “heavy” in.

    Then, as the need arises, target those teams who are heavy in your need as the cost will be much lower than from team with the same need.

    A similar player who is “untouchable” in one org is expendable in another.

    If ANA trading Theodore to protect *spits* Bieksa *spits* in the expansion draft doesn’t spell that out, nothing will.

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Great thread today everyone.

    Really enjoyed reading each and every post.

    This place has been really good lately.

    Thank you.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Doug McLachlan,

    The cap will go up when Lou says it will go up.

    Lou getting cap strung is the best thing that’s happened to Peter since he got here.

  141. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    JimmyV1965,

    But… the decision to trade the first rounder is entirely independent of the team’s ability to find value in the later rounds.

    The team can only hit on the first round, so let’s trade the first rounder or trade down?

    Besides that, I’m fairly confident in the drafting rd 2-7 as of late, it’s a little too soon to make conclusions in full confidence, but the team used to make bad picks that were bad picks even on draft day and that’s happened less, especially in the ’16 and ’17 drafts.

    I believe it has been shown that no team can predictably find impact players outside of the first.

    The first round is gold. Top 10 is special for finding top talent.

    It descends after top 3, takes another drop after that depending on the year, then another, then things tail off rapidly.

    Impact players are the goal. Depth is much easier for a management group who understand the game as it changes.

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Great thread today everyone.

    Really enjoyed reading each and every post.

    This place has been really good lately.

    Thank you.

    I wish I could say the same about you.

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Acquiring players before their Actual NHL value is know is a key reason why good teams do good and bad teams do bad.

    The draft is Cornucopia of Free Assests so having very good scouts and a *great* person to have the final say on sussing out all comparative value is critical.

    Past that, identifying players with “lower value than they should have” is critical as well.

    The key here is identifying which team are “heavy” in prosepects in one spot so they are more than likley to assign a “relative organizational value” to that player.

    A team with a pretty good 2 RD in the AHL and have Actual NHL RD on their NHL roster will be more likely to internally devalue that player compared to teams that are dying for RD at the NHL level.

    Need multiplies (or divides) value.

    The NHL scouts (imo) and front office staff should first identify which position each NHL team is “heavy” in.

    Then, as the need arises, target those teams who are heavy in your need as the cost will be much lower than from team with the same need.

    A similar player who is “untouchable” in one org is expendable in another.

    If ANA trading Theodore to protect *spits* Bieksa *spits* in the expansion draft doesn’t spell that out, nothing will.

    Oh please!

  144. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Lou getting cap strung is the best thing that’s happened to Peter since he got here.

    He’s been cap strung before..

    Be awesome to read all the “I’m hearing the Leafs are interested in Kovalchuk.” stuff.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: This is why I’m a fan of John Chayka. He doesn’t seem bothered by the “GM psychology” that has made everyone allergic to Antti Rantaa, pick mediocre talents ahead of Keller, or that saw Jacob Chykrun fall to the point where Detroit was willing to move down to enable Arizona to draft him.

    Lots of little smart moves. Getting Darcy Kuemper fits that pattern as well. Demers tambien.

    I bet on ARI going over 78 points this year, which is a 0.476 pts % rate.

    They got 70 which is a 0.427 rate.

    Damn.

    When Raanta, Hjarlmasson, and Chychrun finally got healthy, they were good.

    They went 17-9-3 in their last 29 games which is a 0.638 pts % rate.

    A .638 points % would have finished 8th in the NHL this year.

    I hope they open up at 78 pts again, but stay healthy.

  146. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    If ANA trading Theodore to protect *spits* Bieksa *spits* in the expansion draft doesn’t spell that out, nothing will.

    Anaheim didn’t trade Theodore to protect Bieksa. They traded Theodore to be able to protect Cogliano, Silverberg and Vatanen. If Vegas had not done the Theodore deal, they would have bought out Bieksa and left Vatanen exposed. Or trade Fowler…and protect Vatanen.

    They made the decision that they liked Fowler better than Theodore, especially since Fowler is important on their powerplay. But Fowler keeps on getting hurt….

    What clinched their strategy was Fowler signing a new contract.

    McPhee hit on essentially every trade he made where the other team was trying to Vegas to avoid certain players. With Anaheim, Columbus, Minnesota, Florida, and PIttsburgh.

  147. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Oh please!

    Is Andy Dusfresne hacking people?

  148. who says:

    GMB3:
    What type of bizzaro world are we living in where we preach patience with our management and coaching, yet want to trade our first to be more successful now?

    I’ve read countless posts by the Chia supporters that he has a long term vision and last year we over achieved, Chiarelli wasn’t counting on that kind of success and was planning on building more for the future.

    This despite making a move to “get better right now” trading two high picks for a failing prospect. We are now back to trading more first round picks.

    What is going on. I look at our prospect pipeline and see it bereft of difference makers. I look at our cap situation and it is atrocious.

    The only place to get top talent that can contribute on a low cap hit is at the draft.

    Peter Chiarelli’s “long term vision” has more twists and turns than your favourite whodunit mystery novel.

    This is a great post.
    If they do trade that 1st rounder please re post this.
    I hope they are smarter but am not feeling that confident.

  149. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Connor McDavid flattened the earth at 5×5 in 2017-18.

    https://theathletic.com/315354/2018/04/16/lowetide-the-connor-mcdavid-speedway-showed-no-limits-in-2017-18/

  150. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: Is Andy Dusfresne hacking people?

    Meant in support.

  151. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Great thread today everyone.

    Really enjoyed reading each and every post.

    This place has been really good lately.

    Thank you.

    Damn +1. I still can’t quite understand what RICKIETHEBEAR means, but I read all the posts!!

    LOWETIDE: PRESIDENT
    WOODGUY: GM
    THE REST: SCOUTS
    ME: DRUNK (HAPPY) FAN

  152. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I wish I could say the same about you.

    A joke, seeing as my dry delivery is not always obvious.

  153. Pescador says:

    jtblack: Damn +1.I still can’t quite understand what RICKIETHEBEAR means, but I read all the posts!!

    LOWETIDE: PRESIDENT
    WOODGUY: GM
    THE REST:SCOUTS
    ME: DRUNK (HAPPY) FAN

    +1
    Loaded, just happy to be here

  154. Rondo says:

    Taylor Hall looks great tonight.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I wish I could say the same about you.

    Oh?

    What did I do now?

  156. Mr. D. says:

    Did you see Hall look up and say, ” Thank fk I’m out of Edmonton!”

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador:
    Happy wife – happy life.
    Woodguy v2.0,
    No wife – happier life.

    I got married at 33 to someone who is good at the things I’m not good at and on the whole I’ve have been happier since than before, but for much different reasons.

    Being single for my 20’s was the 2nd best decision I’ve made so far in my life.

    Marrying my wife in my 30’s was the first.

    Your mileage may vary.

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: This is a great post.
    If they do trade that 1st rounder please re post this.
    I hope they are smarter but am not feeling that confident.

    Agreed.

  159. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Meant in support.

    ; – )

    Woodguy v2.0:

    If EDM trading Bear to protect Russell in the expansion draft doesn’t spell that out, nothing will.

    Wait, what?

    So guys, what’s the most underrated part about how we’re going to win a top 3 pick?

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    But Yamamoto was able to be put above established level?

    9 games!= season.

    I think that was the coach telling the GM he needed Actual NHL RW.

    That and they played really well together but TY needs to work on his shot. A lot.


    Developing players need to score and score often. Being put with Strone and Lucic is a checking role.

    Nope. They get the 2nd easiest (3rd toughest) QoC on the team. That’s is far from a checking role.


    I think that there’s a disconnect between brain trust and the player. Thankfully Chia is smart enough to not say it publically.

    I think so too, but not on JP.

    Peter pretty much put into words what McLellan’s usage said.

  161. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3:
    What type of bizzaro world are we living in where we preach patience with our management and coaching, yet want to trade our first to be more successful now?

    I’ve read countless posts by the Chia supporters that he has a long term vision and last year we over achieved, Chiarelli wasn’t counting on that kind of success and was planning on building more for the future.

    This despite making a move to “get better right now” trading two high picks for a failing prospect. We are now back to trading more first round picks.

    What is going on. I look at our prospect pipeline and see it bereft of difference makers. I look at our cap situation and it is atrocious.

    The only place to get top talent that can contribute on a low cap hit is at the draft.

    Peter Chiarelli’s “long term vision” has more twists and turns than your favourite whodunit mystery novel.

    I don’t think you can be so dogmatic as a GM. It’s fine to keep the first round pick, but it can’t be an all or nothing thing. If the right deal presents itself, you make the deal. Again, it doesn’t matter what happens with our first round picks. This team will not have success until it dramatically improves in rounds 2-7.

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Lucic will be the first captain of the Seattle Coffee Cups (or whatever they’re calling themselves).

    Bookjie it!!

    Bookie.

    Fuck that guy.

  163. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Pescador: Seattle Sockeyes
    Genius

    It’s totally going be the “Seattle (Toss Salad and) Scrambled Eggs”

    GOOD NIGHT!!!

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I have commented I looked through the top 50 scorers a while back, and there are only a handful of players 5’10 and under.

    There are very few NHL’ers listed under 5’10”

    I think they take everyone’s height while wearing skates.

    One of my employees is a huge PHI fan and met the team at their hotel (Westin) a few years back and got his pic taken with Briere.

    Briere, a great NHL for years, was listed at 5’10 forever.

    My employee is 5’8″ and is at least an inch taller than Briere in the pic.

    No one was slouching either.

    Also,

    I’ve stood next to Gagner (listed at 5’11”), and Eberle (listed at 5’11).

    If either is 5’10” in bare feet I’d eat my hat.

  165. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If either is 5’10” in bare feet I’d eat my hat.

    Maybe if you weren’t wearing a hat they’d look taller…

  166. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Anaheim didn’t trade Theodore to protect Bieksa.They traded Theodore to be able to protect Cogliano, Silverberg and Vatanen.If Vegas had not done the Theodore deal, they would have bought out Bieksa and left Vatanen exposed.Or trade Fowler…and protect Vatanen.

    They made the decision that they liked Fowler better than Theodore, especially since Fowler is important on their powerplay.But Fowler keeps on getting hurt….

    What clinched their strategy was Fowler signing a new contract.

    McPhee hit on essentially every trade he made where the other team was trying to Vegas to avoid certain players.With Anaheim, Columbus, Minnesota, Florida, and PIttsburgh.

    Anaheim went 7 forwards and 3 Dmen.

    They did not protect Vantanen.

    Here is their list:

    Protected players
    Andrew Cogliano (F)
    Ryan Getzlaf (F)
    Ryan Kesler (F)
    Corey Perry (F)
    Rickard Rakell (F)
    Jakob Silfverberg (F)
    Antoine Vermette (F)

    Kevin Bieksa (D)
    Cam Fowler (D)
    Hampus Lindholm (D)

    John Gibson (G)

    Source: https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/ducks-to-protect-11-players-in-2017-nhl-expansion-draft/c-289978788

    If they ask *spits* Bieksa* spits, to waive they could have protected Theodore.

    Vatanen was exposed.

    Murray traded Stoner (who he gave the extension to) to VGK ostensibly to get rid of his contract, which only had one year to run at $3.75 (Stoner was done when Murray extended him….) and for their service to Murray’s budget VGK was able to take Theodore.

    I’m not Murray and maybe he pleaded with his ownership to do the right thing and he’s blameless, but from what I can see it was a massive error, whoever caused it.

    Not quite Reinhart for 16 and 33, but not that far off.

    Maybe this dovetails to my theory that orgs don’t value players in spots where they have abundance and everyone knows ANA is a Dman factory draft wise.

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: Maybe if you weren’t wearing a hat they’d look taller…

    At least you didn’t mention my lifts.

  168. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    That’s like saying the Wild didn’t protect Dumba. But they did!!

  169. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I guess instead of checking tole I meant to say on the never going to score line

  170. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    JimmyV1965,

    But… the decision to trade the first rounder is entirely independent of the team’s ability to find value in the later rounds.

    The team can only hit on the first round, so let’s trade the first rounder or trade down?

    Besides that, I’m fairly confident in the drafting rd 2-7 as of late, it’s a little too soon to make conclusions in full confidence, but the team used to make bad picks that were bad picks even on draft day and that’s happened less, especially in the ’16 and ’17 drafts.

    I’m just saying you can’t be dogmatic about it. You can’t have the attitude that trading the first is an automatic disaster. Of course you can’t do it all the time, but that’s not really the case with the Oilers. Being locked into a position doesn’t seem like a winning strategy in any endeavour. I agree that our drafting has been much better as of late and I’m confident we will soon get an impact player after the first round.

  171. highgloveside says:

    I think the guy that could be around and be the HR pick is Bouchard. He is all over the board in rankings from as high as 6th to the teens. I also think Ty Smith, Bode Wilde, Veleno and Farabee could all targets that could be further down in the draft and the Oilers could trade down while adding a solid prospect or another 2nd round pick

  172. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: At least you didn’t mention my lifts.

    Lifts go inside the shoes. Clodhoppers are not lifts.

  173. leadfarmer says:

    highgloveside,

    Just have the confidence and pick the best player. 2nd round pick is great and all but we just throw those away. The higher you pick the more likely you are to get an impact player, and im not talking about 200 NHL games that everyone seems to use as a measure of success. I’m talking about a guy that has a chance of being a top player

  174. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    I have commented I looked through the top 50 scorers a while back, and there are only a handful of players 5’10 and under.

    There are very few NHL’ers listed under 5’10”

    I think they take everyone’s height while wearing skates.

    It’s not an NHL thing, it’s not a hockey thing, it’s a men thing.

    Every guy I’ve ever seen mention his height in public has exaggerated 2″.

    Until they get down to 5’6″, then they’re 5’9″.

    Source: Most of my friends are women and encounter this especially on Tinder etc. (Even though they never even ask/really care about men’s height as long as they’re not >2″ taller than the guy)

  175. WayneKenov says:

    That was the most bumping 3 stars I’ve ever seen.

  176. hunter1909 says:

    Prediction:

    Taylor Hall scores or wins the game some other way.

    score: 2-2 and 10 mins left and 2-0 might be 3-0 Hall will rise to the occasion.

  177. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I believe it has been shown that no team can predictably find impact players outside of the first.

    The first round is gold. Top 10 is special for finding top talent.

    It descends after top 3, takes another drop after that depending on the year, then another, then things tail off rapidly.

    Impact players are the goal. Depth is much easier for a management group who understand the game as it changes.

    But some teams are clearly better at finding impact players after the first round. And then you have the Oilers, who haven’t drafted a 20 goal scorers outside the first round in 20 years.

  178. hunter1909 says:

    I don’t want to say I told you so but…

    Hall sets up great goal Devils go ahead 3-2

  179. flyfish1168 says:

    Taylor is having an awesome playoff.

    I believe if he was still an Oiler we would easily win a few rounds

  180. WayneKenov says:

    Wilde: It’s not an NHL thing, it’s not a hockey thing, it’s a men thing.

    Every guy I’ve ever seen mention his height in public has exaggerated 2″.

    Until they get down to 5’6″, then they’re 5’9″.

    Source: Most of my friends are women and encounter this especially on Tinder etc. (Even though they never even ask/really care about men’s height as long as they’re not >2″ taller than the guy)

    Being legitimately 6′, I have noticed that as the measure for guys 5’9-5’11. And all manlets (under 5’9 will claim 5’9). NHL should have legit numbers though.

  181. Munny says:

    hunter1909:
    I don’t want to say I told you so but…

    Hall sets up great goal Devils go ahead 3-2

    He should give his first assist to Maroon.

  182. hunter1909 says:

    Suddenly, inexplicably I’m climbing on the freaking New Jersey bandwagon.

    I originally thought Hall was Bobby Hull potential level as a hockey player. Playing for Edmonton he didn’t even see the playoffs, and, as best player had to be vilified by Lowe’s Rangers and run out of town as per so many others.

  183. Munny says:

    Helluva play by Landeskog on that MacKinnon score.

  184. Lowetide says:

    The home teams are playing very well tonight. Fun games everywhere. Have to credit Babcock for moving the veteran center into a feature role. NJD game was maybe Hall’s best I’ve seen, that’s how good it was. MacKinnon scored a beauty in Denver and the Ducks look cooked. Good night so far.

  185. Pescador says:

    Wilde: It’s not an NHL thing, it’s not a hockey thing, it’s a men thing.

    Every guy I’ve ever seen mention his height in public has exaggerated 2″.

    Until they get down to 5’6″, then they’re 5’9″.

    Source: Most of my friends are women and encounter this especially on Tinder etc. (Even though they never even ask/really care about men’s height as long as they’re not >2″ taller than the guy)

    2 Inches is pretty much a universal exaggeration for everything,
    or so I’ve heard

  186. digger50 says:

    Maroon a good game as well

    We could really use Coleman on our penalty kill.

  187. jtblack says:

    Lowetide:
    The home teams are playing very well tonight. Fun games everywhere. Have to credit Babcock for moving the veteran center into a feature role. NJD game was maybe Hall’s best I’ve seen, that’s how good it was. MacKinnon scored a beauty in Denver and the Ducks look cooked. Good night so far.

    +1

  188. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I got married at 33 to someone who is good at the things I’m not good at and on the whole I’ve have been happier since than before, but for much different reasons.

    Being single for my 20’s was the 2nd best decision I’ve made so far in my life.

    Marrying my wife in my 30’s was the first.

    Your mileage may vary.

    I’m genuinely happy for you,
    Truth be told, this is pretty much my story as well.
    I was just trying to be funny, you know in front of the guys & all.
    Though I do have a few recently divorced buddies that I stole that from.

  189. WayneKenov says:

    Goddamn Colorado is gonna be the first black mark on my pool. I had them being swept.

  190. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965: But some teams are clearly better at finding impact players after the first round.And then you have the Oilers, who haven’t drafted a 20 goal scorers outside the first round in 20 years.

    – And untill that changes we aren’t going to win a Cup IMO…

    – Sure it would be sick if our GM could just hose other GM’s at will and make lopsided trades

    – With parity the only sustainable advantage (economic rent) available is entry-level and UFA players you control that are payed little, that would be worth more in the open market

    -Trying to “win” in the UFA market is like day-trading IMO: just not a long-term strategy for success

    – Sure make trades, win them, try to find bargain UFA’s, but that’s not winning long-term

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game 7 and Skinner with, I believe, his fourth shutout of the playoffs – 26 saves and the Broncos move on to face Skinner’s old team in Lethbridge.

  192. WayneKenov says:

    Pescador: 2 Inches is pretty much a universal exaggeration for everything,
    or so I’ve heard

    Are you saying I’m not 2″?

  193. Hockey Project says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I have a feeling that the way they decide on the heights of many hockey players probably isn’t very different than the process that wrestling promoters use to say how tall their guys are.

  194. Pretendergast says:

    Skinner with the 25 save shutout to move the Broncos past the Warriors.

    Side note: Broncos had to beat probably the best 2 teams in the WHL other than them to get to the 3rd round. Wild cards are weird.

  195. Pretendergast says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    too fast for me

  196. Harpers Hair says:

    WayneKenov: Are you saying I’m not 2″?

    Perhaps ask your significant other.

  197. Wilde says:

    The Coyotes are going to finish higher than the Ducks next season.

  198. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – And untill that changes we aren’t going to win a Cup IMO…

    – Sure it would be sick if our GM could just hose other GM’s at will and make lopsided trades

    – With parity the only sustainable advantage (economic rent) available is entry-level and UFA players you control that are payed little, that would be worth more in the open market

    -Trying to “win” in the UFA market is like day-trading IMO: just not a long-term strategy for success

    – Sure make trades, win them, try to find bargain UFA’s, but that’s not winning long-term

    +1

    This is a draft and develop league now and you have to make some hits in the lower rounds or you’re going nowhere.

    On the positive side, I think our drafts have been much better since Chia took over.

    I posted this last night.

    “Just finished listening to a podcast with Keith Conroy from the Boston Herald. When asked why the team could retool so quickly, the first thing he mentioned was the 2014 draft and then the 2015 draft.”

  199. Jaxon says:

    Okay, I just read the NHL.com scouting report news release and they mentioned how Svechnikov heated up after returning from his injury in December. So I checked his 5-on-5 primary points in his last 33 games and he was scoring at a pace of 4.45 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60!!!!!!!!!!!! That puts him ahead of McDavid and Crosby in their draft season. McDavid scored at a pace of 4.41. Crosby scored at a pace of 4.62 in the QMJHL, which equalized to the OHL, works out to 4.06.

    5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 (equivalency adjusted to OHL)
    Svechnikov (last 33 games) = 4.45
    McDavid = 4.41
    Crosby = 4.06
    P Kane = 3.34
    Hall = 3.02
    MacKinnon = 2.89
    Tavares = 2.73
    Seguin = 2.73
    Stamkos = 2.65
    Zadina = 2.59

    He is far outproducing some very elite NHLers in their draft years. When you look at that list the order is fairly accurate in relation to their production at the NHL level.

    Is he being overshadowed by Dahlin and maybe his “Russianess”? It’s crazy that he is not being talked about as a generational or at least close-to-generational talent. He’s an elite finisher, passer, and skater, he’s big, and good on both sides of the puck. But half the scouting lists have him at #3, behind Zadina. Instead, maybe he should be trading places on half the scouting lists with Dahlin for #1. I know points aren’t everything but the verbal in reports is also near perfect. Is there something the scouts are seeing or not seeing that isn’t mentioned in the reports? Weird.

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