(Cap) Room with a view

As we spend our spring mornings wondering if we’ll ever see spring and discussing a trade of No. 9 overall, I return to the cap projections and repeat the truth: Edmonton has to offload some salary in order to add any prominent piece. There’s no way around it.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Milan Lucic at a crossroads after disastrous season.
  • New Jonathan Willis: William Lagesson ready to compete for a job with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outstanding 2017-18 season.
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon had a good season but should be better 2018-19.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers Prospects and how they fared this season.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

PROJECTED ROSTER WITH CAP, 2018-19

  • I have the cap outer marker at $82 million, went low on estimating the rfa contracts.
  • I altered the Jesse Puljujarvi number to shave some money there (hat tip to Chris Lewkowicz who wrote something about Leon Draisaitl that has some applications now).
  • Even with all of that, the Oilers have $6 million in room and you want a cushion.
  • If the team wanted to make a big trade, adding John Carlson or Mike Green or Justin Faulk, someone making over $2 million has to be going.
  • Peter Chiarelli is a very aggressive general manager. This is an interesting scenario but the journey is fraught with danger.
  • There are options. Iiro Pakarinen and or Pontus Aberg could play the 4R role, allowing the Oilers to spend $1 million (Cooper Marody makes $925,000, he could be added as an extra forward, saving about $1 million from Kassian’s hit) by trading Zack Kassian. Jonathan Willis has mentioned this as a prudent way to add some cap room. That gets the team to $7 million.
  • Ryan Strome’s next contract is probably around $3 million, can the Oilers get that down to $2.5 million? Or does the club pursue Derek Ryan or Riley Nash in free agency to save $1 million?
  • I have to say that, when it comes to defense, I’d rather stay the course. Mike Green is famous but he’ll be expensive. Edmonton has a guy like Ethan Bear who may be able to fill that role a year from now. I understand the idea of ‘muddle through’ has little appeal, but in my opinion that’s the play here.
  • For me, finding a quality goaltender who could play 30 games if required, a scoring winger and a two-way forward are important items, more important than adding an expensive puck mover. I’m pushing a giant boulder uphill, but for me this is worth repeating. Ethan Bear might be your answer a year from now, Filip Berglund has some of the required skills, why sell the farm again?
  • I would like a quiet summer, something tells me it will be the opposite.

Prospect-stats.com gives us an estimate of 5×5 playing time and it’s a fascinating to see the usage for Condors forwards this season. Worth mentioning the team had very few legit prospect options most of the season, and that’s not on the coach. Ages 20-23 are in sky blue. Here we go:

  1. Cooper Marody: 3 games, 18.99
  2. Anton Slepyshev: 1 game, 17.33
  3. Tyler Vesel: 11 games, 16.30
  4. Chad Butcher: 7 games, 16.22
  5. Ty Rattie: 53 games, 15.24
  6. Joey Laleggia: 68 games, 14.98
  7. Tyler Benson: 5 games, 13.73
  8. Brad Malone: 56 games, 13.66
  9. Zach O’Brien: 43 games, 13.30
  10. Josh Currie: 68 games, 13.10
  11. Ostap Safin: 9 games, 12.76
  12. Jesse Puljujarvi: 10 games, 12.73
  13. Joe Gambardella: 50 games, 12.34
  14. Ryan Hamilton: 41 games, 12.16
  15. Grayson Downing: 48 games, 12.07
  16. Patrick Russell: 68 games, 11.89
  17. Braden Christoffer: 63 games, 11.26
  18. Dave Gust: 53 games, 10.68
  19. Kyle Platzer: 44 games, 10.56
  20. Iiro Pakarinen: 26 games, 10.37
  21. Evan Polei: 30 games, 10.14
  22. Brian Ferlin: 8 games, 10.03
  23. Mitch Callahan: 45 games, 9.82
  24. Colin Larkin: 15 games, 7.63

A player like Kyle Platzer didn’t see big minutes at any time during his entry-level deal. A late spike (he finished 7, 3-2-5) suggest some promise but it would have been a good idea to give him more playing time in the last three years. The Puljujarvi usage is quite discouraging, assuming these numbers are close to actual.

WILLIAM LAGESSON

Jon has a great piece at The Athletic this morning, Lagesson is coming over and his SHL season just completed is buzz worthy. Edmonton has all kinds of options on defense in the future, another reason I believe they’ll pass on Ty Smith and grab a forward at No. 9 (if they even keep the pick).

He was No. 4 on the team in goals (13) and shouldn’t cost more than $1 million or so. One of the things I would like to see this season? A designated spot for Caggiula. He’s been Casey Candaele so far in his career, time to find a role and allow him to deliver.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

The sun is out, the grass is, well, it’ll be visible soon! At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Now that the exit pressers are in the rear view, what kind of summer does Bruce expect? Bold? Quiet?
  • Summit Sports Show is coming, we’ll talk all about it!
  • Eric Koreen, The Athletic. Raptors love that home cooking.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

184 Responses to "(Cap) Room with a view"

  1. Confused says:

    Like Vaughn’s viewpoint, sign Cags on the cheap. But let’s sign more.

    We need 17F fighting in training camp, no guaranteed places. Top 12 play game one, next two in the stand, others completing in Bakersfield.

    Competition for team places, it is essential!

  2. godot10 says:

    Drake Caggiula was -13 and played a lot of minutes with McDavid and Draisaitl. He gives up far more than than he gets. He is not an NHL player defensively. His possession numbers are awful.

    Ditto Ty Rattie.

    If either of them is any more than a fill-in for an injury, this team won’t make the playoffs. If they give Caggiula one more year to be sure that he is not an NHL player at a cap hit that can be buried, I have no problem with that.

    The Oilers will be a much better team is they allow fewer goals against when McDavid is not on the ice. One is piling up bottom six players (that is being kind….actually 4th line players) who are not good defensively. Lucic, Caggiula, Rattie, Kassian.

  3. slopitch says:

    So LT, with this plan do you see the Oilers adding a 2 way RW a backup goalie and see how it pans out? Maybe upgrade Russell at the deadline?

    I think the RW is extra important because we’ve seen how McDavid inflates contracts and we need to keep JP away from 97 this year. I suppose that’s a good problem to have (JP breaking out development-wise).

    I’m not sure that’s enough. But overall (maybe add another college signing) I like it. And I think playoffs is likely assuming Talbot recovers and the D/97 are healthy.

  4. godot10 says:

    I’d offer sheet or trying trading for Tobias Rieder.

  5. Confused says:

    Like Lagesson coming over and the comments again about fighting for a job with the big team.

    Guessing OV2 is gone, unless super cheap.

    Story to other LHD get health and don’t drop the ball this summer.

    Sign a cheap RHD or two who can push on the right.

    The third goalie push.

    After this season hitting training camp at full speed is essential.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Lots of time? He played less than 150 5v5 minutes with Mcdavid which most people would count as not enough data points to be statistically significant.
    But he drives everyones advanced stats into the ground and while he does score some, he doesnt score enough to keep his head above water. I dont think he will improve enough in the short term

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8479465

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Confused,

    Lagesson say hello to leftorium

  8. Oil2Oilers says:

    Big splash deal 9th + Russell for Colton Parayko

    Small ball deal UFA Magnus Paajarvi, speed and a great glove for the PK.

  9. Wonder Llama says:

    It’s not glamorous, but I agree on the D strategy. When everyone’s healthy it’s a competent if unspectacular NHL D corps.

    The pieces PC is llooking for should theoretically be about the easiest to acquire: a backup goalie and a couple of mid-range wingers.

    You know what really bugs me about the Oilers cap situation? The Benoit Pouliot buyout. I saw no pressing reason for it at the time and now it will cost the team (IIRC) $1.33 million for the next three years. That’s an entire fourth lline player salary just thrown away for three years. I don’t get it.

  10. Aitch says:

    Riley Nash? Tobias Reider getting thrown around as targets. I’m usually all for bringing back former assets who were thrown away for pennies on the dollar, but these two guys forced their way out of the organization before ever playing a game under contract. Why would we think they suddenly want to come back?

  11. dustrock says:

    For a later pick, some people are talking about Joey Keane on the Barrie Colts.

    Wasn’t drafted last year, this year had 44 points in 62 games and was +45.

    Think he’d be worth a 3rd at least.

  12. blainer says:

    The first move for chia is to acquire a goaltender to challenge tabs. There is nothing more important to me than getting this done.

    After this player is acquired then we work out the rest of the weaknesses.

    Chia get that goalie and get it right please!!

  13. anjinsan says:

    Tinkering with the line-up is dinky think compared to what’s really necessary, overhauling management. It takes public outcry to force this.

    But consider what good management has proven to bring: the success of Vegas.
    Vegas just swept the proud Kings. That, my fellow fans, is competence.
    I’d give GM and coach of the year to Vegas…take a bow gentlemen.

  14. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10:
    I’d offer sheet or trying trading for Tobias Rieder.

    Rieder’s current contract is just shy of $1.9M. He has arbitration rights. What to you figure he gets?

  15. dustrock says:

    anjinsan:
    Tinkering with the line-up is dinky think compared to what’s really necessary, overhauling management.It takes public outcry to force this.

    But consider what good management has proven to bring: the success of Vegas.
    Vegas just swept the proud Kings.That, my fellow fans, is competence.
    I’d give GM and coach of the year to Vegas…take a bow gentlemen.

    Wasn’t the take on McPhee that he wasn’t a great GM?

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    The extended evaluation period the Oilers are currently in has me wondering if in fact they have learned some hard lessons?

    I suspect a common denominator in the Reinhart, Hall, Lucic moves is they all came under this impetus to get competitive in a hurry. Much of the verbal around the org at the time was that Katz was pushing hard to end the decade of darkness and have the team become a viable playoff contender in time for their debut in the new building.

    If that push to improve immediately didn’t exist, I wonder if the team’s management is less reluctant to bleed obvious value on trades to address core positional deficiencies? LT’s calling for a quiet summer, and if we see one, possibly it’s an indication they’ve learned something from these hard lessons?

    It’s funny how cyclical these things can be. 2 or 3 years ago almost nobody was extolling the Jets model and Cheveldayoff was being mocked by many as Dithers 2.0. However, once the patient approach finally starts to pay dividends, suddenly everyone’s on board with it. This is somewhat akin to an investor being criticized for building a fundamentally strong portfolio that will outperform the market over time, but in the interim, he’s missed opportunities for home runs on speculative blockchain or cannabis plays.

    Which leads us to the draft. Imo trading a first rounder is another move done under the aegis of having to improve quickly, whereas making the pick is obviously the more prudent long-term strategy for teams trying to stock their pipeline with cap friendly contracts.

    Will the Oil continue this pattern of making mistakes because of urgency, or will they become better long range planners?

  17. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock,

    Same thing as Steve Y last year. Must be nice to have a GM that only makes one or two mistakes

  18. Confused says:

    leadfarmer,

    The key is that if he shows better than Kris or Rej at camp play him!

    Nothing like starting the season in the stand to concentrate the mind.

    OV2, Simpson, Lowe, Better, etc should all be gone, replace them with actual prospects, tell them show me what you have got, the sky is the limit, but the clock is running!

  19. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Even with all of that, the Oilers have $6 million in room and you want a cushion.

    This point about needing a cushion tends to get little play in fantasy rosters which often use up about 99.9% of the cap ceiling on 23 (or fewer!) contracts. Here’s a cautionary bit from the excellent linked article from Chris Lewkowicz:

    Now the Oilers currently have 5 players on the IR, 1 on the LTIR and are carrying a full 23 player roster meaning they are accruing cap hits for 29 players.

    Injuries can & do happen. It is essential to maintain a cushion, unless you like the idea of incurring an overage that comes straight off the following season’s cap.

  20. Primetime says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Big splash deal 9th + Russell for Colton Parayko

    Small ball deal UFA Magnus Paajarvi, speed and a great glove for the PK.

    Not sure why St. Louis makes that trade…I think after giving away Stastny they will look to build up again.

    That being said, I lot of mention of a substantial backup for Talbot to push him. What if Chia is not interested in going into a contract year with Talbot? It’s a potential lose-lose situation:

    – if Talbot struggles again, then Oil are doomed and Chia is out of a job
    – if Talbot returns to form, he is inline for a big payday that may be out of range for our team, and we lose him for nothing

    I wonder if Chia doesn’t hedge his bets by trading Talbot for another starting goalie with some cost certainty. For example, in St. Louis…Allen struggled and Carter Hutton was terrific. Would they trade Talbot for Allen to get cost certainty for a few years and hope for a bounce back year? Allows St. Louis to sign Hutton again to a 1-2 year contract and see if he is the real deal, or if Talbot grabs the reigns, they can sign him.

    If we can squeeze a forward, say Fabbri, along with Allen out of the deal, would you do it?

  21. tileguy says:

    Three years of Tmac and not one set line, not even a set duo, expect more of the same. (Thought) could this be Chiarellis fault?

  22. Cassandra says:

    anjinsan:
    Tinkering with the line-up is dinky think compared to what’s really necessary, overhauling management.It takes public outcry to force this.

    But consider what good management has proven to bring: the success of Vegas.
    Vegas just swept the proud Kings.That, my fellow fans, is competence.
    I’d give GM and coach of the year to Vegas…take a bow gentlemen.

    The unspoken part of the story is the incompetence of other general managers.

    They got Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchesault from the Panthers. That is 2/3 of their top line.

    They got Alex Tuch and Eric Haula from Minnesota, in exchange for not taking Matt Dumba, when Minnesota should have just left Brodin unprotected. That is 2/3 of their second line.

    They got Shea Theodore from Anaheim instead of Sami Vatanen. There is their best defenseman.

  23. bendelson says:

    I’m guessing ‘Room with a view’ is not a Wall of Voodoo reference LT? (although they should be in the LT early 80’s New Wave catalogue).

    As a aside: Wall of Voodoo: great name for a goalie blog!

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    The more I think about it, one comment from Nicholson’s presser that is really resonating with me is his liking what Chiarelli is doing with the draft and development of the team’s amateur prospects.

    In watching this year’s playoffs, it’s so abundantly obvious how many of the teams in the tournament this year have well stocked cap competitive F depth that’s been built through years of drafting and development.

    Even before the OBC, with Mexico Barry Fraser, this was a problem for the Oil.

    Connor McDavid may float all boats, but this team’s prospect pipeline has been fundamentally flawed for eons and unfortunately Connor’s arrival didn’t fix that problem overnight.

    Is Chiarelli the kind of GM that can build an organization going forward that annually delivers NHL ready players on cheap contracts to the big club?

    If he is, then partner him with an Assistant GM that excels at cap management and contract negotiation and give them autonomy from the OBC to do their jobs.

    And please, please, please: Fire Todd MacLellan. With 3 new suitors in the mix, hirings are going to start happening asap. C’mon Oil, don’t be the last ones standing when the music stops. Get the best guy available while he’s still available.

  25. McSorley33 says:

    Wonder Llama,

    It’s not glamorous, but I agree on the D strategy. When everyone’s healthy it’s a competent if unspectacular NHL D corps.
    *******************************************************************************
    Who is your 2RHD?

  26. Bobcaygeon says:

    I said it in the last article that Chiarelli has a big summer ahead. I can’t see him keeping Lucic and Sekera. Given what the Oilers needs are, I can’t see him making incremental moves at this point with whats going on internally within the organization. His job is on the line.

  27. Pescador says:

    Aitch:
    Riley Nash? Tobias Reider getting thrown around as targets. I’m usually all for bringing back former assets who were thrown away for pennies on the dollar, but these two guys forced their way out of the organization before ever playing a game under contract. Why would we think they suddenly want to come back?

    Opportunity and money,
    Same reasons why they asked to be moved or didn’t sign a contract.
    Lots of prospects don’t sign with the teams that drafted them.
    Riley Nash 15g 26a $900,000 salary last season UFA for 2018
    Nash > Strome

  28. McSorley33 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Great post – top to bottom.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cassandra

    They got Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchesault from the Panthers.That is 2/3 of their top line.

    But the Panthers are analytic geniuses. How is that possible?

    They leave Gallant waiting for a cab and then miss the playoffs two years running. Dumb asses.

    Bad karma is most definitely a bitch.

  30. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Cassandra: The unspoken part of the story is the incompetence of other general managers.

    They got Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchesault from the Panthers.That is 2/3 of their top line.

    They got Alex Tuch and Eric Haula from Minnesota, in exchange for not taking Matt Dumba, when Minnesota should have just left Brodin unprotected.That is 2/3 of their second line.

    They got Shea Theodore from Anaheim instead of Sami Vatanen.There is their best defenseman.

    They got Brayden McNabb from LA, then McNabb scores the only goal in the 1-0 game that eliminates the Kings right in his old barn. Some of the Vegas Miracle is pure karma.

  31. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks: But the Panthers are analytic geniuses. How is that possible?

    Didnt they get rid of the computer boys before they got rid of Reilly and Marchesault?

  32. Bag of Pucks says:

    McSorley33:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Great post – top to bottom.

    Ty, needed to redeem myself after an ill advised joke on the weekend!

  33. Bobcaygeon says:

    tileguy:
    Three years of Tmac and not one set line, not even a set duo, expect more of the same. (Thought) could this be Chiarellis fault?

    It’s absolutely Chiarelli fault, who else can a coach put out? if you want to talk about line combinations then we can talk about coaching decisions.

  34. Wonder Llama says:

    McSorley33,

    Whoever is most comfortable playing there between Klef, Sekera, and Nurse. My pick is Sekera. It’s not perfect but otherwise you have one of them on third pairing. Up until this season the choice was Nurse but I think he’s proven he’s ready for more minutes/responsibility.

    The only other solution I see is trading Klefbom for the equivalent RHD. Since the llatter seem to be more rare/valuable it would almost certainly be a trade that bleeds value. PC has absolutely painted himself into a corner with his parade of overpriced NMC contracts.

  35. Bag of Pucks says:

    frjohnk: Didnt they get rid of the computer boys before they got rid of Reilly and Marchesault?

    They got rid of Rowe, but the owner was the one originally pushing the analytics movement and he’s still there.

    To me it’s a mistake anytime a team plants a flag and says we’re taking this approach at the expense of all other perspectives.

    Quantitative needs qualitative for balance and context, and hockey players are not algorithms.

    That’s part of the reason why the Golden Knights are such a compelling story. A team of castoffs proving the whole hockey world wrong. Quantitative says the best talent wins, so this should not be possible. But there’s powerful qualitative mojo in that Vegas locker room this season.

  36. frjohnk says:

    Bruce Lowetide: I have the cap outer marker at $82 million, went low on estimating the rfa contracts.

    Nurse would be the only RFA I could see getting something higher than what you estimate. A scenario where in which Nurse is signed at $4.5M and the salary cap comes in at $80M does not look good for the Oilers. That would leave the Oilers with a cap cushion of $2.9M

  37. tileguy says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    I think it is proof that the wrong men are in charge.

  38. Pescador says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The extended evaluation period the Oilers are currently in has me wondering if in fact they have learned some hard lessons?

    I suspect a common denominator in the Reinhart, Hall, Lucic moves is they all came under this impetus to get competitive in a hurry. Much of the verbal around the org at the time was that Katz was pushing hard to end the decade of darkness and have the team become a viable playoff contender in time for their debut in the new building.

    If that push to improve immediately didn’t exist, I wonder if the team’s management is less reluctant to bleed obvious value on trades to address core positional deficiencies? LT’s calling for a quiet summer, and if we see one, possibly it’s an indication they’ve learned something from these hard lessons?

    It’s funny how cyclical these things can be. 2 or 3 years ago almost nobody was extolling the Jets model and Cheveldayoff was being mocked by many as Dithers 2.0. However, once the patient approach finally starts to pay dividends, suddenly everyone’s on board with it. This is somewhat akin to an investor being criticized for building a fundamentally strong portfolio that will outperform the market over time, but in the interim, he’s missed opportunities for home runs on speculative blockchain or cannabis plays.

    Which leads us to the draft. Imo trading a first rounder is another move done under the aegis of having to improve quickly, whereas making the pick is obviously the more prudent long-term strategy for teams trying to stock their pipeline with cap friendly contracts.

    Will the Oil continue this pattern of making mistakes because of urgency, or will they become better long range planners?

    Excellent post,
    You answered your own question, Chiarelli will trade away the pick Because of the nightmare season that just passed.
    Plus pressure from the owner and the fan base.
    The good news is everyone keeps their job because of the first forensic audit that concluded the following; ‘The franchise is struggling because there is a lack of continuity’

  39. danny says:

    Happy Golden Envelope Day everyone.

    On this date, 2015, the golden envelope delivered McJesus.

    Praise McJesus.

  40. Brantford Boy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Good post…

    I’ve heard of reading between the lines… but just tell me, do I sell my cannabis ETF’s or not?

  41. who says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Even with all of that, the Oilers have $6 million in room and you want a cushion.

    This point about needing a cushion tends to get little play in fantasy rosters which often use up about 99.9% of the cap ceiling on 23 (or fewer!) contracts. Here’s a cautionary bit from the excellent linked article from Chris Lewkowicz:

    Now the Oilers currently have 5 players on the IR, 1 on the LTIR and are carrying a full 23 player roster meaning they are accruing cap hits for 29 players.

    Injuries can & do happen. It is essential to maintain a cushion, unless you like the idea of incurring an overage that comes straight off the following season’s cap.

    I agree that the Oilers need a cap cushion.
    But my understanding of the cap is that injured players do not count against the cap while they are on IR. Is this true and if so do they calculate the contract value of games missed and subtract that from the cap hit?

  42. who says:

    McSorley33:
    Wonder Llama,

    It’s not glamorous, but I agree on the D strategy. When everyone’s healthy it’s a competent if unspectacular NHL D corps.
    *******************************************************************************
    Who is your 2RHD?

    Russell or Sekera

  43. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    “In watching this year’s playoffs, it’s so abundantly obvious how many of the teams in the tournament this year have well stocked cap competitive F depth that’s been built through years of drafting and development.”

    +1. Edm has next to nothing coming from 2014 & 2015 (McD and Drai – but no other picks) Bear might arrive. Should have had 3 or 4 from 2015 draft 😉

    If Edm makes all its selections this year, that will be 3 yrs in a row HOPEFULLY thise 3 yrs will have players breaking thru atarting next yr.

    Looks like the shine is off BENSON.

  44. Jordan says:

    There are some quality forwards available as UFAs this year

    Tavares, Stone, Vanek, Kane, Stasny Neal. Hell, maybe even Nash.

    If I’m a player who’s looking to have a great year, I’d be tempted by the prospect of being a RW with Nuge and Connor. Even if the pay check isn’t as much as I’d like, playing with those two has to be amazingly tempting, no?

    If I’m Chiarelli, I’m out trying to sell a “one year on connors wing” package to the UFAs and see who’s interested. Don’t want to invest more than 1 year into anyone, to see how it works (and because Edmonton still looks like a shitty bet to do much, so asking people to commit more time to an unproven franchise sounds a terrible career decision).

    Guarantee he’ll get some interest – the question becomes price point.

    Not Chiarelli’s strong suit, but… what can I do but hope he does better?

  45. McSorley33 says:

    Wonder Llama,

    Whoever is most comfortable playing there between Klef, Sekera, and Nurse. My pick is Sekera. It’s not perfect but otherwise you have one of them on third pairing. Up until this season the choice was Nurse but I think he’s proven he’s ready for more minutes/responsibility.
    *************************************************************************************************
    That would be my pick as well but i am not sure we have played him on his off side very much.

  46. Pescador says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Good post…

    I’ve heard of reading between the lines… but just tell me, do I sell my cannabis ETF’s or not?

    I would smoke them

  47. zatch says:

    Primetime,

    Took the words out of my mouth, re: That trade. I think you’re talking the 1st, Russel, and a young D not named Bear. Likely with salary retained.

    As someone pointed out to me a day or two ago on here, due to the expansion draft, trading a 1st for a vet isn’t a good call right now. That said, I wonder if one of Jones, Lagesson or even Bear becomes worth a lot more as time goes on. Some of those guys won’t pan out, it may be worth dangling them.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Good post…

    I’ve heard of reading between the lines… but just tell me, do I sell my cannabis ETF’s or not?

    I like the value investment approach of buying underpriced companies with proven earnings, so I’m likely too conservative an investor to offer advice in this realm. Plenty of money to be made in shorting pot stocks for those so inclined.

    If it’s me, I sell them shortly after the pot hits the streets when the speculation wave’s still riding high, but before the first round of disappointing quarterly earnings follows.

    The interesting thing about this industry to me is I think consolidation will arrive in this industry far more quickly than it does in traditional industries and you’ll see legitimate 800 lb gorillas in the marketplace leveraging as much of the supply chain as possible. Companies like Aurora and Canopy are going to aggressively drive down margins very early in the lifecycle and make it nigh impossible for low volume producers to compete outside niche brand offerings.

  49. Bobcaygeon says:

    Jordan: Tavares, Stone, Vanek, Kane, Stasny Neal. Hell, maybe even Nash.
    If I’m a player who’s looking to have a great year, I’d be tempted by the prospect of being a RW with Nuge and Connor. Even if the pay check isn’t as much as I’d like, playing with those two has to be amazingly tempting, no?

    Stone is an RFA and the one player I think Chiarelli should target, but to play with Draisaitl, not McDavid.

  50. --hudson-- says:

    danny:
    Happy Golden Envelope Day everyone.

    On this date, 2015, the golden envelope delivered McJesus.

    Praise McJesus.

    Glory be to Weir.

    One of the best days to be an Oilers fan. Thanks for the reminder.

  51. Brantford Boy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Woah… thanks, pretty deep… think I’ll need to use my special powers for this one…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URsXPkFxjFc

  52. godot10 says:

    who: I agree that the Oilers need a cap cushion.
    But my understanding of the cap is that injured players do not count against the cap while they are on IR. Is this true and if so do they calculate the contract value of games missed and subtract that from the cap hit?

    Your understanding is wrong. The cap hit of injured players count against the cap UNLESS they are long term injuries and go on LTIR. And you cannot use the cap provided by LTIR unless you use up all your available cap space.

  53. 719 says:

    If Carolina is looking to get tougher, could they be interested in Russel? Obviously Russel has the hammer with his NMC, but would a trade involving Russel for Faulk not cure the perceived ills of both teams?

    Faulk seems to be on the outs in Carolina. Russel just had his best statistical year and is known as a tough as nails type D.

    Just a thought, I know trade scenarios are not worth the screen space they take up.

  54. 719 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I like the value investment approach of buying underpriced companies with proven earnings, so I’m likely too conservative an investor to offer advice in this realm. Plenty of money to be made in shorting pot stocks for those so inclined.

    If it’s me, I sell them shortly after the pot hits the streets when the speculation wave’s still riding high, but before the first round of disappointing quarterly earnings follows.

    The interesting thing about this industry to me is I think consolidation will arrive in this industry far more quickly than it does in traditional industries and you’ll see legitimate 800 lb gorillas in the marketplace leveraging as much of the supply chain as possible. Companies like Aurora and Canopy are going to aggressively drive down margins very early in the lifecycle and make it nigh impossible for low volume producers to compete outside niche brand offerings.

    Well said, a lot of the guys on the TSXV (outside one or two) are not worth investing into.

  55. russ99 says:

    godot10: Your understanding is wrong.The cap hit of injured players count against the cap UNLESS they are long term injuries and go on LTIR.And you cannot use the cap provided by LTIR unless you use up all your available cap space.

    Also, teams have to be cap compliant at the start of the season before putting a player on LTIR, so injuries can’t be used to circumvent cap space. This is why we couldn’t spend Sekera’s contract last off-season.

  56. dustrock says:

    719:
    If Carolina is looking to get tougher, could they be interested in Russel?Obviously Russel has the hammer with his NMC, but would a trade involving Russel for Faulk not cure the perceived ills of both teams?

    Faulk seems to be on the outs in Carolina.Russel just had his best statistical year and is known as a tough as nails type D.

    Just a thought, I know trade scenarios are not worth the screen space they take up.

    Yeah, I wondered about Looch going to Carolina as well, to sell the “culture change” teams seem to love, I just doubt Milan would waive to go there.

  57. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    Drake Caggiula was -13 and played a lot of minutes with McDavid and Draisaitl.He gives up far more than than he gets.He is not an NHL player defensively.His possession numbers are awful.

    Ditto Ty Rattie.

    If either of them is any more than a fill-in for an injury, this team won’t make the playoffs.If they give Caggiula one more year to be sure that he is not an NHL player at a cap hit that can be buried, I have no problem with that.

    The Oilers will be a much better team is they allow fewer goals against when McDavid is not on the ice.One is piling up bottom six players (that is being kind….actually 4th line players) who are not good defensively.Lucic, Caggiula, Rattie, Kassian.

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    Lots of time?He played less than 150 5v5 minutes with Mcdavid which most people would count as not enough data points to be statistically significant.
    But he drives everyones advanced stats into the ground and while he does score some, he doesnt score enough to keep his head above water.I dont think he will improve enough in the short term

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8479465

    This is how I see it as well. A part of balance, which Chia referenced in his exciting avail, has to do with age.

    To me if you have a young core you need good vets to balance them – experience and also teaching the details that make players better overall. If you have an older core you need youth developing to replace them.

    The Oilers are not getting enough out of role players as we know. But I also don’t think it’s a lack of scoring as much as reliable NHL quality play. Some aren’t consistently hard on the puck.

    With that being effective means winning more than 50% of puck battles, be it by brawn or by brains or both – just get the puck and break up the attack as far away from your net as possible.

    Some like Caggiula are hard on the puck but really weak in battles and that is defined exactly by Corsi.

    The Oilers need some experienced good skating possession players that can also PK, to allow the younger skill players that aren’t on the top 2 lines to at least break even 5v5 and hopefully outscore as the best will always be playing Connor or Leon.

    I see more of this balance on D despite it’s warts.

    Goalering is affected by this to some degree, but they also need the best possible goalers to help bolster team confidence, and save the bacon once in a while because offensive teams give up some chances, and the McDavid Oilers should be offensive.

  58. Bag of Pucks says:

    719: Well said, a lot of the guys on the TSXV (outside one or two) are not worth investing into.

    Good recent summation here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanjbrochstein/2018/04/08/why-canadian-cannabis-stocks-are-on-sale/#f5cd16e598e4

  59. Oilman99 says:

    frjohnk: Didnt they get rid of the computer boys before they got rid of Reilly and Marchesault?

    Proving they are even more incompetent than Oiler management.

  60. dustrock says:

    Seeing ROR hanging out with McDavid and going to Humboldt got me thinking.

    This will be a hugely unpopular opinion but I’d trade Draisaitl for him and something else, be hilarious if they could get ROR & Buffalo’s 1st for Drai.

    5 more years at $7.5 m. 2nd toughest net 5v5 zone deployment on the league’s worst team, faces the toughest competition, used to defend and PK, and he leads the Sabres in primary point production and leads the NHL in faceoff percentage at 60%.

    He’s 27 so I’d want something more, but I’d honestly look at this. If you want a mini-Bergeron on your team, ROR is probably your guy.

  61. Oilman99 says:

    frjohnk: Nurse would be the only RFA I could see getting something higher than what you estimate.A scenario where in which Nurse is signed at $4.5M and the salary cap comes in at $80M does not look good for the Oilers.That would leave the Oilers with a cap cushion of $2.9M

    A bridge deal for Nurse is imperative, he must prove he is a 4.5M man before handing it to him.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    When your owner says dump 10 mil in salary as reported then you have to do things other people will perceive as dumb. Sure it was a rumor but at least in my mind subsequently dumping 10 mil in salary, with Demers and Reilly speaks for itself
    As far as Haula goes he was a good defensive center for them with limited offense that they could not afford to re-sign and Brodin was a long term investment for them. Even without expansion draft Haula had to go

  63. Oilman99 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: They got Brayden McNabb from LA, then McNabb scores the only goal in the 1-0 game that eliminates the Kings right in his old barn. Some of the Vegas Miracle is pure karma.

    No stars,everybody playing a structured team game,playing for the coach of the year. Loved to see them kick LA’s ass. Bring on the Sharks,we are seeing the last of the intimidation first era of the NHL. They took every hit LA could muster,and kept on beating them to every puck,great to see.

  64. OmJo says:

    What’s in the water in Vegas?

  65. Doug McLachlan says:

    blainer:
    The first move for chia is to acquire a goaltender to challenge tabs. There is nothing more important to me than getting this done.

    After this player is acquired then we work out the rest of the weaknesses.

    Chia get that goalie and get it right please!!

    Wondering if Anton Khudobin in Boston isn’t the person Chia has in mind, though he came to Boston after Chia left.

    Boston has McIntyre as an RFA for one more year and his numbers in the AHL look credible. They clearly have Rask as their guy for the next few seasons so imagine that Khudobin doesn’t resign with the Bs.

    What do you think he gets from the market? His current contract pays him $1.2M.

  66. Pescador says:

    Oilman99: A bridge deal for Nurse is imperative, he must prove he is a 4.5M man before handing it to him.

    I’m guessing PC disagrees
    Hope I’m wrong

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Drake Caggiula was -13 and played a lot of minutes with McDavid and Draisaitl.He gives up far more than than he gets.He is not an NHL player defensively.His possession numbers are awful.

    I don’t disagree with the general concept but he played about 1/3 of his time with either McDavid or Drai.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8479465&p2=8477934&p3=8478402&p4=0&p5=0

    He can carve out a role on the 4th line as an energy player.

    He needs to be kept off the PP and, in particular the PK (which is not ideal for a bottom 6 player).

  68. jake70 says:

    In terms of managerial competence in Vegas – they had no other teams competing for players. First expansion in salary cap era. Friedman the other night on HNIC mentioned the other GMs in league not liking how good Vegas had it in terms of player availability and may make it more difficult for Seattle.

  69. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock: Wasn’t the take on McPhee that he wasn’t a great GM?

    Forsberg for Erat is Hall for Larsson level bad. GM of the Year!

  70. who says:

    Doug McLachlan: Forsberg for Erat is Hall for Larsson level bad.GM of the Year!

    No it’s much worse.
    You are comparing an over the hill left winger to a coming into his prime righty dman. Its not even close.
    Not a good comparison at all.

  71. Doug McLachlan says:

    Cassandra: The unspoken part of the story is the incompetence of other general managers.

    They got Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchesault from the Panthers.That is 2/3 of their top line.

    They got Alex Tuch and Eric Haula from Minnesota, in exchange for not taking Matt Dumba, when Minnesota should have just left Brodin unprotected.That is 2/3 of their second line.

    They got Shea Theodore from Anaheim instead of Sami Vatanen.There is their best defenseman.

    And even then many of us were baffled by some of Vegas’ selections. Exhibit “A” they select Derek Engeland out of Calgary. Sure he’s a Vegas guy and makes a nice story. They may even have determined that there was more hockey player left than ANYBODY predicted (hey look, he’s outscoring Travis Hamonic, and how). But he was a UFA. They could have acquired his right for NOTHING?!?!

    There wasn’t anything on Calgary’s exposed list that would have been of value? Really?

  72. jtblack says:

    What was the League average SV% last year?

  73. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The more I think about it, one comment from Nicholson’s presser that is really resonating with me is his liking what Chiarelli is doing with the draft and development of the team’s amateur prospects.

    In watching this year’s playoffs, it’s so abundantly obvious how many of the teams in the tournament this year have well stocked cap competitive F depth that’s been built through years of drafting and development.

    Even before the OBC, with Mexico Barry Fraser, this was a problem for the Oil.

    Connor McDavid may float all boats, but this team’s prospect pipeline has been fundamentally flawed for eons and unfortunately Connor’s arrival didn’t fix that problem overnight.

    Is Chiarelli the kind of GM that can build an organization going forward that annually delivers NHL ready players on cheap contracts to the big club?

    If he is, then partner him with an Assistant GM that excels at cap management and contract negotiation and give them autonomy from the OBC to do their jobs.

    And please, please, please: Fire Todd MacLellan. With 3 new suitors in the mix, hirings are going to start happening asap. C’mon Oil, don’t be the last ones standing when the music stops. Get the best guy available while he’s still available.

    Well if we are going to savage Chia for his draft record, let’s make sure we know when we start to criticize.

    I heard Nicholson mention how Chia has overhauled the scouts and I took it as a positive comment in Chia’s favour but I may have missed the tone.

    Certainly I thought we walked out of last year’s draft pleased with the selections and when we got them. Yamamoto in 1st, Skinner and Samorukov in 3rd, Safin in 4th, Maksimov in 5th! The scouts who made these calls are Chia’s guys. Early days but I would call that a successful looking draft +1.

    2016 was more controversial at draft +2 Puljujarvi in 1st, Benson in 2nd, Cairns in 3rd, Wells and McPhee in 5th, Rasanen in 6th. Benson over Debrincat will be a sore spot for many but Wells had an impressive season a year ago and Rasanen looked good to me at the WJC. Some names to keep an eye on.

    The 2015 draft is not fair, IMO, to pin on Chia. He would have had no opportunity to create a standard throughout the system. I’m not sure you can be expected to turn your scouting staff around in time for the 2016 draft.

  74. Doug McLachlan says:

    frjohnk: Nurse would be the only RFA I could see getting something higher than what you estimate.A scenario where in which Nurse is signed at $4.5M and the salary cap comes in at $80M does not look good for the Oilers.That would leave the Oilers with a cap cushion of $2.9M

    But if the Cap comes in at $82 and we have a little more room to breathe.

  75. Professor Q says:

    Say, Charlie McAvoy really does look like Rick Moranis when he has his tuque and glasses on.

  76. Professor Q says:

    jake70:
    In terms of managerial competence in Vegas– theyhad no other teams competing for players. First expansionin salary cap era. Friedman the other night on HNIC mentioned the other GMs in league not liking how good Vegas had it in terms of player availability and may make it more difficult for Seattle.

    That’s why they should have let Québec proceed and entered both of them at the same time (as it usually had been done).

  77. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pescador: Opportunity and money,
    Same reasons why they asked to be moved or didn’t sign a contract.
    Lots of prospects don’t sign with the teams that drafted them.Riley Nash 15g 26a $900,000 salary last season UFA for 2018
    Nash > Strome

    Why is Nash better than Strome? He’s 28 and his production last year is about double his normal output.

  78. --hudson-- says:

    Professor Q: That’s why they should have let Québec proceed and entered both of them at the same time (as it usually had been done).

    Believe Quebec doesn’t have the $650M expansion fee at this time. They’re a relocation possibility though

  79. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q,

    And how many of those managers thought the Golden Knights were going to be absolute crap this year? Maybe the GMs need to evaluate themselves and their scouting staff instead of complaining that someone else is doing a better job with less than they are.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    –hudson–,

    I dont think the NHL really cares about expanding the league in Canada. Its very low on the list.

  81. Doug McLachlan says:

    719:
    If Carolina is looking to get tougher, could they be interested in Russel?Obviously Russel has the hammer with his NMC, but would a trade involving Russel for Faulk not cure the perceived ills of both teams?

    Faulk seems to be on the outs in Carolina.Russel just had his best statistical year and is known as a tough as nails type D.

    Just a thought, I know trade scenarios are not worth the screen space they take up.

    I don’t expect to see Russell waiving his no-move for any team that’s not Calgary. That said, I could increasingly see that happening.

    We all savage Russell but the willingness to sacrifice his body blocking shots is a skill set that is truly valued by a lot of coaches and management groups – including Calgary.

    It would set twitter ablaze but I could see Calgary being interested in taking Russell back for the very attributes he gets mocked for here.

    http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/flames-defenceman-kris-russell-traded-to-dallas-stars

    Some takeaway lines:

    “Kris Russell is a classic Flame, a classic Alberta kid,” declared Brian Burke, president of hockey operations at the Saddledome, during a Monday morning appearance on Sportsnet 960 The Fan radio. “I mean, his dad was a bullfighter, for God’s sake.”

    “Truth is, the 28-year-old wanted to stay in Calgary, and the higher-ups at the Saddledome were hoping to keep the alternate captain around.”

    “Nobody laid it on the line as much as Kris Russell,” said Flames GM Brad Treliving. “That was a hard one … This is a special guy, a real warrior. Those that have watched him, he lived and breathed the Calgary Flames. He bled the Flames’ red. We wish him all the best and thank him for all he did for us in Calgary.”

    “But Russell has earned a sizable raise — he was reportedly asking for north of US$5-million per season in extension talks — and the Flames simply couldn’t shoehorn the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent into their long-range salary structure.”

    Some of this is the sort of “good guy in the room” stuff you say when anyone is dealt but the “a real warrior” narrative is exactly what you heard Treliving fail to describe the current Flames roster as yesterday when he sacked their coach. IIRC they really tried to get Russell signed but if he wanted north of $5M two years ago (with a $71.4M), $4M x 3more may not look so steep with a cap between $78-82M). Just saying…

  82. 719 says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Thank you for sharing that.

  83. 719 says:

    dustrock: Yeah, I wondered about Looch going to Carolina as well, to sell the “culture change” teams seem to love, I just doubt Milan would waive to go there.

    We are poised well to trade with Carolina, the issue becomes the NMCs that were so freely handed out.

  84. Cassandra says:

    frjohnk: Nurse would be the only RFA I could see getting something higher than what you estimate.A scenario where in which Nurse is signed at $4.5M and the salary cap comes in at $80M does not look good for the Oilers.That would leave the Oilers with a cap cushion of $2.9M

    I will fall out of my chair, hit my head, and sing Chiarelli’s praises for a month if Nurse signs a longterm deal for 4.5 million. Not because the deal is so great (though it is fine) but because it is so unlikely.

    Nurse on a longterm deal starts with a 5 and maybe even with a six.

    Remember when Draisatl’s contract was justified as % of cap hit. If the cap is going up then so is Nurse’s number. The over/under is around 5.5 million on that deal.

  85. russ99 says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Yeah. There’s a real disconnect between the Corsi/puck mover crowd and NHL coaches/staff as to Russell’s value. I maintain that not every NHL player needs to conform to an archetype to be successful, and some players that some fans deem as worthless have value playing their game to its strengths within the team’s systems.

  86. JimmyV1965 says:

    719:
    If Carolina is looking to get tougher, could they be interested in Russel?Obviously Russel has the hammer with his NMC, but would a trade involving Russel for Faulk not cure the perceived ills of both teams?

    Faulk seems to be on the outs in Carolina.Russel just had his best statistical year and is known as a tough as nails type D.

    Just a thought, I know trade scenarios are not worth the screen space they take up.

    I doubt they would be interested with their d group. Kassian though.

  87. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Good recent summation here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanjbrochstein/2018/04/08/why-canadian-cannabis-stocks-are-on-sale/#f5cd16e598e4

    Silver is the most undervalued asset in the world right now. And when all the bugs gain resistance to all available antibiotics, silver will save you their too, when everyone else is dying of infection. It is also the new “oil”, since it is essential to solar and alternative energy. And it is the only real money for poor men. Gold is money for rich men.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    Nurse does not score enough to get paid that much. Dmen get paid for points that he just doesnt put up. He will get paid 4-5 mil on a long term deal like his peers. If he wants 6 plus we can just trade him

  89. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    Seeing ROR hanging out with McDavid and going to Humboldt got me thinking.

    This will be a hugely unpopular opinion but I’d trade Draisaitl for him and something else, be hilarious if they could get ROR & Buffalo’s 1st for Drai.

    5 more years at $7.5 m. 2nd toughest net 5v5 zone deployment on the league’s worst team, faces the toughest competition, used to defend and PK, and he leads the Sabres in primary point production and leads the NHL in faceoff percentage at 60%.

    He’s 27 so I’d want something more, but I’d honestly look at this. If you want a mini-Bergeron on your team, ROR is probably your guy.

    He is tired of losing. Why would he want to come to Edmonton?

  90. godot10 says:

    Oilman99: A bridge deal for Nurse is imperative, he must prove he is a 4.5M man before handing it to him.

    Nurse proved he was better than Russell last year. Russell had a cap hit of $4 million and earned $5 million. Q.E.D.

  91. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    He can carve out a role on the 4th line as an energy player.

    He needs to be kept off the PP and, in particular the PK (which is not ideal for a bottom 6 player).

    I would argue there is no such role on an NHL roster competing for a playoff spot…i.e. a 4th line energy player who is weak defensively and cannot penalty kill..

  92. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    Nurse does not score enough to get paid that much.Dmen get paid for points that he just doesnt put up.He will get paid 4-5 mil on a long term deal like his peers.If he wants 6 plus we can just trade him

    Mike Matheson and Colton Parayko are his comparables. If you use Matheson you get around 5.5 million. If you use Parayko you get around 6

  93. admiralmark says:

    Cags is no Cogs. I’d turn the page. Ideally I’d find a way to sign both Strome to $2.75/per and Riley Nash to $1.25/per. Both are fine NHL 3rd liners.

  94. Side says:

    godot10: He is tired of losing.Why would he want to come to Edmonton?

    Because Edmonton wins more than Buffalo, were in the playoffs last year and has McDavid?

    Literally anywhere is better than Buffalo.

  95. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    What is Pete actually doing regarding the coaching staff? Evaluating? Did he not watch the games this season? Like get on with this shit show already. This organization can’t even fire people properly.

  96. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    Matheson seems more accurate. Hes at $4.9 Mil per x 8 yrs

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    Parayko hasnt had less than a 30 point season something Nurse has yet to do. They are not comparable. Defenseman get paid for points. Matheson is a good comparable.
    Also I dont think Nurse wants a bridge the way people hope he gets bridged. His bridge would look more like 4 mil a year for 2 years

  98. jm363561 says:

    Cassandra: The unspoken part of the story is the incompetence of other general managers.

    They got Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchesault from the Panthers.That is 2/3 of their top line.

    They got Alex Tuch and Eric Haula from Minnesota, in exchange for not taking Matt Dumba, when Minnesota should have just left Brodin unprotected.That is 2/3 of their second line.

    They got Shea Theodore from Anaheim instead of Sami Vatanen.There is their best defenseman.

    QED, with the right GM and coach apparently so-so players can become stars. We have lots of apparently so-so players. Hmmmm.

  99. who says:

    Doug McLachlan: I don’t expect to see Russell waiving his no-move for any team that’s not Calgary.That said, I could increasingly see that happening.

    We all savage Russell but the willingness to sacrifice his body blocking shots is a skill set that is truly valued by a lot of coaches and management groups – including Calgary.

    It would set twitter ablaze but I could see Calgary being interested in taking Russell back for the very attributes he gets mocked for here.

    http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/flames-defenceman-kris-russell-traded-to-dallas-stars

    Some takeaway lines:

    “Kris Russell is a classic Flame, a classic Alberta kid,” declared Brian Burke, president of hockey operations at the Saddledome, during a Monday morning appearance on Sportsnet 960 The Fan radio. “I mean, his dad was a bullfighter, for God’s sake.”

    “Truth is, the 28-year-old wanted to stay in Calgary, and the higher-ups at the Saddledome were hoping to keep the alternate captain around.”

    “Nobody laid it on the line as much as Kris Russell,” said Flames GM Brad Treliving. “That was a hard one … This is a special guy, a real warrior.Those that have watched him, he lived and breathed the Calgary Flames. He bled the Flames’ red. We wish him all the best and thank him for all he did for us in Calgary.”

    “But Russell has earned a sizable raise — he was reportedly asking for north of US$5-million per season in extension talks — and the Flames simply couldn’t shoehorn the soon-to-be unrestricted free agent into their long-range salary structure.”

    Some of this is the sort of “good guy in the room” stuff you say when anyone is dealt but the “a real warrior” narrative is exactly what you heard Treliving fail to describe the current Flames roster as yesterday when he sacked their coach.IIRC they really tried to get Russell signed but if he wanted north of $5M two years ago (with a $71.4M), $4M x 3more may not look so steep with a cap between $78-82M).Just saying…

    You may be on to something here with Russell.
    Assuming he would waive to go to Calgary, what could Edmonton expect back?
    Would you swap him straight up for Brodie? How bad has Brodie become?
    2 or 3 years ago he looked like a real good puck mover playing the right side with Gio. Now it sounds like the Flames are wanting to get rid of him. Would he be an upgrade on Russell?
    I think he moves the puck better but doesnt defend as well. He costs 600K more than Russell but his contract is a year shorter.
    Would you make that trade?

  100. Alpine says:

    russ99:
    Doug McLachlan,

    Yeah. There’s a real disconnect between the Corsi/puck mover crowd and NHL coaches/staff as to Russell’s value. I maintain that not every NHL player needs to conform to an archetype to be successful, and some players that some fans deem as worthless have value playing their game to its strengths within the team’s systems.

    There’s a couple bloggers who are very outspoken and hyperbolic in their criticism of Russell, but the general consensus among analytics types is that he’s a decent third pairing guy who shouldn’t play top four regularly.

    Most coaches he’s had have played him as a second or third pairing guy. McLellan had him number four with a bullet this year, playing quite a bit less than 77/2/25. I think there’s a slight disconnect between the two parties but it’s small.

  101. Confused says:

    who,

    So Russell would not fetch one year of Myers at 5.5M but he fetches two years of Brodie at 4.6M?

  102. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    Cassandra,

    Matheson seems more accurate. Hes at $4.9 Mil per x 8 yrs

    With an 80 million cap Matheson’s contract is 5.2

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    Parayko hasnt had less than a 30 point season something Nurse has yet to do.They are not comparable.Defenseman get paid for points.Matheson is a good comparable.
    Also I dont think Nurse wants a bridge the way people hope he gets bridged.His bridge would look more like 4 mil a year for 2 years

    Parayko had a 35 pt season prior to signing the contract, was +7, and played in the world championships.

    Nurse just had 26 pts, played on the Oilers top pairing, and was +15 on a non-playoff team, and is heading to the World Championships.

    His agents are going to use Parayko as a comparable. At an 80 million cap, Parayko’s contract is 5.9 million.

    There isn’t a chance Nurse’s contract comes under five on a longterm deal, and that isn’t even considering the Chiarelli inflator clause.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Cassandra,

    Nurse does not score enough to get paid that much.Dmen get paid for points that he just doesnt put up.He will get paid 4-5 mil on a long term deal like his peers.If he wants 6 plus we can just trade him

    He was top 40 (I believe 37th) among all d-men for even strength points.

  104. digger50 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    What is Pete actually doing regarding the coaching staff? Evaluating? Did he not watch the games this season? Like get on with this shit show already. This organization can’t even fire people properly.

    As time passes I think people become more willing to give Tmac another try.

    But go back and watch some post game pressers where he throws his guys under the bus, and it will remind you why the biggest improvement we can make this off season is a coaching change.

    I’m not letting Peter and his roster construction off the hook. But in regards to coaching:
    Was there any line consistency?
    Try outs all year?
    Slow, slow start to season, Yammer on numbe 1 line, Jessie in minors
    What was that defensive system?
    What was that failed penalty kill formation?
    Why the heck did Talbot seemed fatigued, lack of focus?
    Why did he praise his teams “lack of response?”
    Mcblender
    Questionable player development
    Did not public ally support players (well sometimes, like Russels own goal, but really, who was picking on him. Shit happens)

    I’m sure I could write a list of posatives as well, but the point here is we have to get better and a new coach would likely make a substantial difference.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Nurse proved he was better than Russell last year.Russell had a cap hit of $4 million and earned $5 million.Q.E.D.

    RFA contract coming off an ELC vs. a UFA contract. Straight comparisons cannot be made.

    If you did want to make similar comparisons, did he prove he is better than Klefbom or Larsson?

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: I would argue there is no such role on an NHL roster competing for a playoff spot…i.e. a 4th line energy player who is weak defensively and cannot penalty kill..

    Maybe but the player also scored 13 goals and only a third of his time was with McDavid or Drai.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    admiralmark:
    Cags is no Cogs. I’d turn the page. Ideally I’d find a way to sign both Strome to $2.75/per and Riley Nash to $1.25/per. Both are fine NHL 3rd liners.

    I don’t think Cogs was Cogs at 23 or after 2 years of pro hockey.

  108. who says:

    Confused:
    who,

    So Russell would not fetch one year of Myers at 5.5M but he fetches two years of Brodie at 4.6M?

    Don’t you think Myers has a lot more value to other GMs than Brodie does?
    I think most GMs see Myers as a legit top 4 RD. It sounds like Calgary doesn’t think Brodie is a top 4 LD. I would think Calgary is a lot more anxious to get rid of Brodie. And if they do get rid of him they may want an NHL dman with more “heart” to replace him.
    I haven’t seen anything to indicate that Winnipeg is unhappy with Myers. Or that they feel they need an upgrade on LD.

  109. godot10 says:

    who: You may be on to something here with Russell.
    Assuming he would waive to go to Calgary, what could Edmonton expect back?
    Would you swap him straight up for Brodie? How bad has Brodie become?
    2 or 3 years ago he looked like a real good puck mover playing the right side with Gio. Now it sounds like the Flames are wanting to get rid of him. Would he be an upgrade on Russell?
    I think he moves the puck better but doesnt defend as well. He costs 600K more than Russell but his contract is a year shorter.
    Would you make that trade?

    Russell for Lazar. I want a cheap winger back. To free up some money to have room for a right shot D.

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – The Blue Jays this year so far, are kind of how ideally you’d like the Oil to respond

    – Last year, their closer Osuna was terrible, and there was talk of trading him. Starter Sanchez was injured. Stro had a bad year. Defense was bad, lots of strike-outs, Gibby vulnerable

    – They had an off-season where they decided to trust the starting rotation would rebound, and added a solid #5 guy, and kept their best prospect for starter in the minors

    – The did some non-sexy but accretive acquisitions to shore up the D, add a little speed, and some depth for injuries. Nothing earth-shattering, but clearly some upgrades for cheap and short-term

    – Last year they had a brutal start to season (after big expectations). This year, some new guys in, (7’s 8’s and 9’s in LT parlance, not Kings and Aces), they have started well.

    – Sure the Jays aren’t expected to win it all this year, but they are very competitive, as they wait for their star prospects to come up. They played small ball, drafted well, didn’t punt out the big guys who under-performed.

    – I know I was all about the Oil winning the cup this last year. I don’t know…

  111. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Maybe but the player also scored 13 goals and only a third of his time was with McDavid or Drai.

    He was responsible for giving up a lot more than 13 goals, which makes his 13 goals irrelevant. In two years, he has not learned how to play defensively without the puck.

  112. WayneKenov says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think Cogs was Cogs at 23 or after 2 years of pro hockey.

    No, he was better in his first two years. If anything, Cogliano is the poster child for consistency. Caggiula in 2 seasons doesn’t even have the same number of Cogliano in his rookie year. And he was younger at the time. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=87885

    If you aren’t going to play Caggiula with McDavid, you don’t want him in the NHL. And quite frankly, he more than offsets the best player since Lemieux. The WOWYs are pretty damning. Over 1/3 of the goals scored while Caggiula was on came in 20% of his icetime, while he was dragging McDavid down. The team was significantly better without either compared to with just Caggiula. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8479465&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

  113. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10: Russell for Lazar.I want a cheap winger back. To free up some money to have room for a right shot D.

    Russell for Bennett?

  114. who says:

    godot10: Russell for Lazar.I want a cheap winger back. To free up some money to have room for a right shot D.

    Sooooo, Russell for nobody then.
    I can see a lot of posters agreeing with you. Not sure management would.
    But even if the Oilers were willing, can Calgary take on a 4 million dollar contract? And do they want Russell that bad?
    Seems to me they would want to move money out for money in.

  115. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – The Blue Jays this year so far, are kind of how ideally you’d like the Oil to respond

    – Last year, their closer Osuna was terrible, and there was talk of trading him.Starter Sanchez was injured.Stro had a bad year.Defense was bad, lots of strike-outs, Gibby vulnerable

    – They had an off-season where they decided to trust the starting rotation would rebound, and added a solid #5 guy, and kept their best prospect for starter in the minors

    – The did some non-sexy but accretive acquisitions to shore up the D, add a little speed, and some depth for injuries.Nothing earth-shattering, but clearly some upgrades for cheap and short-term

    – Last year they had a brutal start to season (after big expectations).This year, some new guys in, (7’s 8’s and 9’s in LT parlance, not Kings and Aces), they have started well.

    – Sure the Jays aren’t expected to win it all this year, but they are very competitive, as they wait for their star prospects to come up.They played small ball, drafted well, didn’t punt out the big guys who under-performed.

    – I know I was all about the Oil winning the cup this last year.I don’t know…

    I love the Jays and they’ve had a great start, but it’s a long season. I like the rotation, but that batting lineup is ugly. I’m not thrilled with the defence either. You never know what can happen though if you get pitching. The bullpen is looking lights out.

  116. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: He was responsible for giving up a lot more than 13 goals, which makes his 13 goals irrelevant.In two years, he has not learned how to play defensively without the puck.

    Imagine the howls if outrage if the Drake went somewhere else and scored 15 goals. He can still get better and maybe he improves big time if they go to zone defence. His contract will be low enuf to bury in the minors.

  117. JimmyV1965 says:

    WayneKenov: No, he was better in his first two years. If anything, Cogliano is the poster child for consistency. Caggiula in 2 seasons doesn’t even have the same number of Cogliano in his rookie year. And he was younger at the time. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=87885

    If you aren’t going to play Caggiula with McDavid, you don’t want him in the NHL. And quite frankly, he more than offsets the best player since Lemieux. The WOWYs are pretty damning. Over 1/3 of the goals scored while Caggiula was on came in 20% of his icetime, while he was dragging McDavid down. The team was significantly better without either compared to with just Caggiula. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8479465&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

    No offence, but how can you possibly be so definitive on a player with 127 games in the NHL? There’s just no chance he can improve. Will never happen.

  118. Genjutsu says:

    Maybe there’s a way to perfect fit for team needs.

    Lucic, benning. The 9th OV and the 2019 and 2020 first rounders for Doughty?

  119. Doug McLachlan says:

    Genjutsu:
    Maybe there’s a way to perfect fit for team needs.

    Lucic, benning. The 9th OV and the 2019 and 2020 first rounders for Doughty?

    I am surprised that the Doughty for Nylander rumours haven’t started yet

  120. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: RFA contract coming off an ELC vs. a UFA contract.Straight comparisons cannot be made.

    If you did want to make similar comparisons, did he prove he is better than Klefbom or Larsson?

    Nurse was at least equal or better in his last ELC season compared to Klefbom and Larssons years in which led to them signing their deals.

  121. pts2pndr says:

    godot10:
    I’d offer sheet or trying trading for Tobias Rieder.

    It is a player the type the Oil could realy use!

  122. Wilde says:

    Good stuff today guys.

    Right now the organisation obviously looks bad but I think it does have its strengths, I’m very impressed with Keith Gretzky’s recent history in the draft. I’d say the key positions that need to be filled in the organisation right now are a Brisebois-type AGM:

    “He reports to Lightning vice president and general manager Steve Yzerman and assists him in all aspects of player personnel decisions, analytics, player development, contract preparation and negotiation, as well as salary arbitration for the Lightning and the Syracuse Crunch of the American Hockey League, for whom he also serves as general manager. BriseBois also manages interpretation of the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement and the salary cap for Tampa Bay.”

    This could even be filled by two people, one for the contract negotiations, analytics, salary cap stuff, and analytics(the contract negotiations and analytics should be joined at the hip, there’s no other way to do business there imo), and another for player personnel/running the AHL team.

    Then there’s the issue of AHL coaching. I’d suggest picking up a CHL HC instead of trying to poach an active AHL one. A blank slate. Development for this man means a good future NHL candidate, and he needs to be malleable in systems, and to have the word of the organisation that he will not be relieved over W-L columns. He needs to be always open and communicative to the NHL HC in player evaluation and deployment. The NHL HC should never not know what he’s getting in his fresh troops. Players should be able to come up and be immediately slotted into feature roles in all disciplines. The most important part here though is job security. He must be coaching for development. With this staffing, there would be no question like the current Ostap Safin situation, of course, of *course* put him in the AHL as soon as possible. The only players that should not be rushed into our system would be Europeans, and even then they would get some games because the AHL team should be making the playoffs and going deep in the very near future.

    The Providence Bruins, with the spoils of the drafts engineered by the amateur scouting guys we now have, have been putting up 0.600+ pct seasons with the top point producers all in their 21-22 year old seasons. This should be the goal 2 years from now when all of the 2017 and 2018 draft picks have arrived, but the playoffs could easily happen next year with the roster turnover that should occur on the 50-man this summer. The amount of players that should not come back is massive. 9 of the 10 top scorers on the team should be let go immediately after the season. Small moves should have been made around/before the deadline this year to acquire as many round 4-7 picks as possible, instead of stuff like the Montoya trade. The luxury of having so much roster turnover at the minor league level is that you can’t actually have too many picks, no matter how late they are, because of how many 50-man spots will be free.

    The only thing we have going for us right now is amateur scouting, it’s time to make use of that and run a strong AHL team so there is never another situation where the bottom half of this team destroys postseason hopes. We had a fourth line this year that had effectively given up more than McDavid created until about February. That’s not acceptable. The ability to sit guys like 55 and 44 and bring up PPG 22 year old AHLers that are homegrown draft picks should be a yearly phenomenon.

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cags might become St Louis but he doesn’t help now where they need help. It matters. Non core players have to contribute now to help the kings and aces as they enter prime.

    Everything is about Connor and maximizing his potential, everyone else is there to support him and if they can’t do it they need to look elsewhere.

    I’d trade Russell to the Flames for a two way forward. This type of deal is where a smart GM might give up a bit because Russell cost no player assets, of course having lost too many trades makes it harder to do now.

  124. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    Good stuff today guys.

    Right now the organisation obviously looks bad but I think it does have its strengths, I’m very impressed with Keith Gretzky’s recent history in the draft. I’d say the key positions that need to be filled in the organisation right now are a Brisebois-type AGM:

    “He reports to Lightning vice president and general manager Steve Yzerman and assists him in all aspects of player personnel decisions, analytics, player development, contract preparation and negotiation, as well as salary arbitration for the Lightning and the Syracuse Crunch of the American Hockey League, for whom he also serves as general manager. BriseBois also manages interpretation of the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement and the salary cap for Tampa Bay.”

    This could even be filled by two people, one for the contract negotiations, analytics, salary cap stuff, and analytics(the contract negotiations and analytics should be joined at the hip, there’s no other way to do business there imo), and another for player personnel/running the AHL team.

    Then there’s the issue of AHL coaching. I’d suggest picking up a CHL HC instead of trying to poach an active AHL one. A blank slate. Development for this man means a good future NHL candidate, and he needs to be malleable in systems, and to have the word of the organisation that he will not be relieved over W-L columns. He needs to be always open and communicative to the NHL HC in player evaluation and deployment. The NHL HC should never not know what he’s getting in his fresh troops. Players should be able to come up and be immediately slotted into feature roles in all disciplines. The most important part here though is job security. He must be coaching for development. With this staffing, there would be no question like the current Ostap Safin situation, of course, of *course* put him in the AHL as soon as possible. The only players that should not be rushed into our system would be Europeans, and even then they would get some games because the AHL team should be making the playoffs and going deep in the very near future.

    The Providence Bruins, with the spoils of the drafts engineered by the amateur scouting guys we now have, have been putting up 0.600+ pct seasons with the top point producers all in their 21-22 year old seasons. This should be the goal 2 years from now when all of the 2017 and 2018 draft picks have arrived, but the playoffs could easily happen next year with the roster turnover that should occur on the 50-man this summer. The amount of players that should not come back is massive. 9 of the 10 top scorers on the team should be let go immediately after the season.

    The only thing we have going for us right now is amateur scouting, it’s time to make use of that and run a strong AHL team so there is never another situation where the bottom half of this team destroys postseason hopes. We had a fourth line this year that had effectively given up more than McDavid created until about February. That’s not acceptable. The ability to sit guys like 55 and 44 and bring up PPG 22 year old AHLers that are homegrown draft picks should be a yearly phenomenon.

    I agree with this but right now the Oilers need role players that can hold their own more than scoring from rookies that are unreliable and can’t carry weight. The core are still unreliable outside of Connor and he’s not defensively great yet.

  125. Mustard Tiger says:

    Chiarelli overseeing the Oil Kings as well

    https://oilersnation.com/2018/04/18/edmonton-oilers-arent-helping-chiarelli-be-successful/

    Aaaand discuss..

  126. Wilde says:

    Although, I’m not sure Chiarelli is willing to step aside on contract negotations, because that is pretty embarrassing considering his resume before becoming an NHL GM.

  127. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I agree with this but right now the Oilers need role players that can hold their own more than scoring from rookies that are unreliable and can’t carry weight. The core are still unreliable outside of Connor and he’s not defensively great yet.

    Yes, and they need a long term strategy for creating role players instead of just having to scramble every summer to find them.

  128. russ99 says:

    Mustard Tiger:
    Chiarelli overseeing the Oil Kings as well

    https://oilersnation.com/2018/04/18/edmonton-oilers-arent-helping-chiarelli-be-successful/

    Aaaand discuss..

    Interesting. The Oil Kings have been staunch old boy territory for a while, so maybe there has been a shift.

    As long as he’s auditing the operation and making changes then lets the staff run the club during the season, I see no issue with this interfering with Oilers business.

  129. russ99 says:

    Wilde: Yes, and they need a long term strategy for creating role players instead of just having to scramble every summer to find them.

    That comes from a good system. We’re still 2-3 good drafts and improvements in player development away from that.

    I think Gambardella can follow in Khaira’s footsteps and contribute at the NHL level soon.

  130. Wilde says:

    russ99: Interesting. The Oil Kings have been staunch old boy territory for a while, so maybe there has been a shift.

    As long as he’s auditing the operation and making changes then lets the staff run the club during the season, I see no issue with this interfering with Oilers business.

    It’s time.

    There’s not enough hours in the day for NHL GMing by itself.

    Adding to that is madness.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: Yes, and they need a long term strategy for creating role players instead of just having to scramble every summer to find them.

    I’m not sure you can create plug and play role players in the AHL. They still need time in the NHL to get their chops down.

    At some point hopefully you can run a line and shelter it to give them reps.

    The Oilers need to start doing better due diligence on vets. That Jokinen was coming off surgery at his age and can’t stick on a team sounds a lot like always, they hired him solely on rep.

    Maybe PC is doing too much and needs better and more help.

    No excuse for that given the Oilers have cash.

  132. Mr DeBakey says:

    who: You may be on to something here with Russell.
    Assuming he would waive to go to Calgary, what could Edmonton expect back?

    The Oilers cannot take on Brodie’s $4.6mm.
    Michael Stone is at $3.5mm.
    Flames get probably the better overall D.
    Oilers save $500,000 on the Cap & get a passable RHD.

    Calgary gotta send out some salary to make room for Russel’s $4mm, Lazar’s $$$ ain’t enough.

  133. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m not sure you can create plug and play role players in the AHL. They still need time in the NHL to get their chops down.

    Andreas Johnsson, Kasperi Kapanen, Austin Czarnik, Travis Dermott, Zach Aston-Reese, Dominic Simon, Warren Foegele, Phil Di Giuseppe, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, Anders Bjork, Matt Grzelcyk, Christian Djoos, Alex Tuch, Jack Roslovic, Nikita Scherbak, Mike Armadio…

    All of these guys were immediately effective this season.

    Hell, Yanni Gourde put up 60 points.

    Toronto went from a meh-playoff team to something entirely different when Martin and Komarov came out for Johnsson and Kapanen.

    Imagine if, at the beginning of the season when Letestu and Kassian were getting caved in, we had the ability to call up guys like that.

  134. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Not Russell’s biggest fan but Michael Stone is hot garbage, I take Russell every day

  135. Wilde says:

    I like Jon Willis’s idea of swapping Russell for an equivalent (overpaid) forward the most.

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: Andreas Johnsson, Kasperi Kapanen, Austin Czarnik, Travis Dermott, Zach Aston-Reese, Dominic Simon, Warren Foegele, Phil Di Giuseppe, Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson, Anders Bjork, Matt Grzelcyk, Christian Djoos, Alex Tuch, Jack Roslovic, Nikita Scherbak, Mike Armadio…

    All of these guys were immediately effective this season.

    Hell, Yanni Gourde put up 60 points.

    Toronto went from a meh-playoff team to something entirely different when Martin and Komarov came out for Johnsson and Kapanen.

    Imagine if, at the beginning of the season when Letestu and Kassian were getting caved in, we had the ability to call up guys like that.

    It wouldn’t be great

  137. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It wouldn’t be great

    Good talk!!

  138. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    Good stuff today guys.

    Right now the organisation obviously looks bad but I think it does have its strengths, I’m very impressed with Keith Gretzky’s recent history in the draft. I’d say the key positions that need to be filled in the organisation right now are a Brisebois-type AGM:

    “He reports to Lightning vice president and general manager Steve Yzerman and assists him in all aspects of player personnel decisions, analytics, player development, contract preparation and negotiation, as well as salary arbitration for the Lightning and the Syracuse Crunch of the American Hockey League, for whom he also serves as general manager. BriseBois also manages interpretation of the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement and the salary cap for Tampa Bay.”

    This could even be filled by two people, one for the contract negotiations, analytics, salary cap stuff, and analytics(the contract negotiations and analytics should be joined at the hip, there’s no other way to do business there imo), and another for player personnel/running the AHL team.

    Then there’s the issue of AHL coaching. I’d suggest picking up a CHL HC instead of trying to poach an active AHL one. A blank slate. Development for this man means a good future NHL candidate, and he needs to be malleable in systems, and to have the word of the organisation that he will not be relieved over W-L columns. He needs to be always open and communicative to the NHL HC in player evaluation and deployment. The NHL HC should never not know what he’s getting in his fresh troops. Players should be able to come up and be immediately slotted into feature roles in all disciplines. The most important part here though is job security. He must be coaching for development. With this staffing, there would be no question like the current Ostap Safin situation, of course, of *course* put him in the AHL as soon as possible. The only players that should not be rushed into our system would be Europeans, and even then they would get some games because the AHL team should be making the playoffs and going deep in the very near future.

    The Providence Bruins, with the spoils of the drafts engineered by the amateur scouting guys we now have, have been putting up 0.600+ pct seasons with the top point producers all in their 21-22 year old seasons. This should be the goal 2 years from now when all of the 2017 and 2018 draft picks have arrived, but the playoffs could easily happen next year with the roster turnover that should occur on the 50-man this summer. The amount of players that should not come back is massive. 9 of the 10 top scorers on the team should be let go immediately after the season. Small moves should have been made around/before the deadline this year to acquire as many round 4-7 picks as possible, instead of stuff like the Montoya trade. The luxury of having so much roster turnover at the minor league level is that you can’t actually have too many picks, no matter how late they are, because of how many 50-man spots will be free.

    The only thing we have going for us right now is amateur scouting, it’s time to make use of that and run a strong AHL team so there is never another situation where the bottom half of this team destroys postseason hopes. We had a fourth line this year that had effectively given up more than McDavid created until about February. That’s not acceptable. The ability to sit guys like 55 and 44 and bring up PPG 22 year old AHLers that are homegrown draft picks should be a yearly phenomenon.

    Excellent post!!

  139. who says:

    Mr DeBakey: The Oilers cannot take on Brodie’s $4.6mm.
    Michael Stone is at $3.5mm.
    Flames get probably the better overall D.
    Oilers save $500,000 on the Cap & get a passable RHD.

    Calgary gotta send out some salary to make room for Russel’s $4mm, Lazar’s $$$ ain’t enough.

    Agree with most of this.
    Although the Oilers can afford an extra 600 thousand for Brodie, especially when his contract ends a year sooner than Russell’s. Eliminates any expansion draft concerns re Russell.
    But Russell for Stone is a similar deal and accomplishes the same thing.
    Don’t know if either team is willing to do this deal which probably makes it a fair trade.

  140. JimmyV1965 says:

    Mustard Tiger:
    Chiarelli overseeing the Oil Kings as well

    https://oilersnation.com/2018/04/18/edmonton-oilers-arent-helping-chiarelli-be-successful/

    Aaaand discuss..

    I don’t know. Seems like a lot of words for something meh. I do know the Oil Kings coach is the son of a former player and they’ve been on the down cycle two years too long.

  141. WayneKenov says:

    JimmyV1965: No offence, but how can you possibly be so definitive on a player with 127 games in the NHL? There’s just no chance he can improve. Will never happen.

    He could, but why bet on him? If he had a single skill that was worthwhile, I might be arguing that we should try to convert him into a more complete player, but as it is, he is an offence only player who barely pisses a drop. He’s 24 at the start of next year, and easily falls out of prospect territory. It’s past 5 years post draft, I think we have an idea about what his top end is. It’s similar to betting on Arcobello. You can’t live life afraid of what probably won’t happen.

    If you signed him for cheap on a two way and buried him, he might be worth holding onto, but I would rather invest time trying to reclaim Slepyshev. At least he has fantastic skating, a plus shot, and a good frame. Neither belong in the NHL at this point, but if you are going to try to round one into a 3/4 liner, that is the one you work on. Not that he is a good NHLer at this point either. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477415&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

    I’m not a huge Aberg fan either, but he’s got a bigger toolkit that Caggiula and is a better player to invest time in. My overarching point is Caggiula is a drag currently, and doesn’t project very highly, thus bleeding more precious development time on him seems foolish from where I’m sitting. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2018-04-08&tgp=82&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8476857&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

    All that said, our incoming prospects are dogshit, and unless we pick up some NCAA free agents or Euros, Caggiula might be necessary to fill the roster. It may not be reasonable to acquire a better option on the cheap. Losing him isn’t the reason you don’t try to upgrade that position though.

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: Good talk!!

    Sorry, phone, I meant it would be great. It’s the goal of a good org IF they want to remain consistently competitive

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think Gambardella can follow in Khaira’s footsteps and contribute at the NHL level soon.

    Joe G. has a underwhelming and disappointing first pro season – he went on a heater in the last 3 weeks to spike his overall totals to 19 points.

    I’m confident in saying that Marody, and his 3 pro games, is ahead of Joe G. on the depth chart.

  144. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ideally I want to see them sign players like Vanek and Winnik on short term deals. The team needs time for drafted players to develop and also help now from players that know the NHL. No movement clauses.

    If Yama and Bear stick there is a lot of green on the roster.

    The youth need proper support. Coach needs horses.

  145. WayneKenov says:

    Wilde:
    I like Jon Willis’s idea of swapping Russell for an equivalent (overpaid) forward the most.

    I agree with this. It helps balance the roster short term, with a contract that is only slightly negative value, and allows you to get out of that contract long term.

    Marcus Johansson? Tyler Ennis and a pick? Colin Wilson? All have 1 year term.

    Otherwise, you start looking at the ginormous deals (Bobby Ryan), or the long term deals (Casey Cizikas).

  146. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Joe G. has a underwhelming and disappointing first pro season – he went on a heater in the last 3 weeks to spike his overall totals to 19 points.

    I’m confident in saying that Marody, and his 3 pro games, is ahead of Joe G. on the depth chart.

    I was hoping he could step in as a 4thliner with his reported grinder game.

  147. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Joe G. has a underwhelming and disappointing first pro season – he went on a heater in the last 3 weeks to spike his overall totals to 19 points.

    I’m confident in saying that Marody, and his 3 pro games, is ahead of Joe G. on the depth chart.

    I’m fairly high on Marody so I agree with the assessment in regards to the comparison of the two, but it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that Gambardella got low ice-time at evens and zero on the powerplay. See the eTOI values for reference.

  148. leadfarmer says:

    If the Flames only got Russell back as a return for Brodie there would be riots in the streets.

  149. hunter1909 says:

    Once more I’ll predict Taylor Hall scores/assists in the 3rd period/OT in this game.

    edit: The Bolts look pretty good.

  150. digger50 says:

    Watching the devils again, really like Coleman’s game.

  151. Wilde says:

    digger50:
    Watching the devils again, really like Coleman’s game.

    The headshot on Vatanen has ended that series, imo.

  152. Gordies Elbow says:

    LT: Could you clarify the math in your “Projected Roster with Cap” table?

    I’ve tried it with the Pouliot buyout in Excel and using the CapFriendly GM tool, and can’t seem to make the numbers work. You seem to have 1M hidden somewhere, and I can’t find it. 😉

    As to the cushion, if Puljujarvi gets his Schedule B bonuses as listed in the SPC, awesome.

    Based on where he is though, does anyone think that he’ll make any of that $2M?

  153. deardylan says:

    I thought after Oilers beat SJ last year in the playoffs and as their core and superstar JT getting very old, Marleau gone it was the beginning of their quick decline? Did anyone predict that they would get into and go into second round in the playoffs this year?

    What happened?

  154. Lowetide says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    LT: Could you clarify the math in your “Projected Roster with Cap” table?

    I’ve tried it with the Pouliot buyout in Excel and using the CapFriendly GM tool, and can’t seem to make the numbers work. You seem to have 1M hidden somewhere, and I can’t find it. 😉

    As to the cushion, if Puljujarvi gets his Schedule B bonuses as listed in the SPC, awesome.

    Based on where he is though, does anyone think that he’ll make any of that $2M?

    I add my numbers up again, they are as above (and you’reright I added in $1.33M for Pouliot). My Puljujarvi number might be throwing you off?

  155. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Russell for Bennett?

    I’d be fine with either but I wouldn’t hold out for Bennett if Lazar was their best offer.

  156. godot10 says:

    who: Sooooo, Russell for nobody then.
    I can see a lot of posters agreeing with you. Not sure management would.
    But even if the Oilers were willing, can Calgary take on a 4 million dollar contract? And do they want Russell that bad?
    Seems to me they would want to move money out for money in.

    They can trade Brodie and Bennett for Pacioretty. Then trade Lazar to us for Russell.

  157. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: I am surprised that the Doughty for Nylander rumours haven’t started yet

    I’m thinking the Leafs offer sheet Nurse for 7 x $5.9, and then trade Nylander and Rielly for Doughty. You heard it here first.

  158. Gordies Elbow says:

    Lowetide,

    I get $73.5045 for your numbers as listed (which includes expected bonuses, based on Yamamoto and Puljujarvi, I’d expect,) plus $1.333333 from CapFriendly for Pouliot, giving roughly $74.84M for cap.

    I’ve added it up repeatedly, and keep getting the same numbers. Anyone?

  159. who says:

    godot10: They can trade Brodie and Bennett for Pacioretty.Then trade Lazar to us for Russell.

    That makes more sense.
    Flames would only take on 1 more million in cap hit. Lot of moving pieces though and they really need a right winger, not another lefty.

  160. who says:

    One more comment on a potential Russell trade.
    If the expansion draft is held in summer of 2020 and Russell’s contract demands that he be protected, why would any team trade for him?

  161. godot10 says:

    who:
    One more comment on a potential Russell trade.
    If the expansion draft is held in summer of 2020 and Russell’s contract demands that he be protected, why would any team trade for him?

    Russell’s contract becomes an extremely limited no trade by the expansion draft, so if the rules are the same, neither he, nor Sekera, have to be protected.

  162. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Awesome! SJ swept those damn ducks and head to Vegas take on Those damn Knights.
    Go Sharks!

  163. who says:

    godot10: Russell’s contract becomes an extremely limited no trade by the expansion draft, so if the rules are the same, neither he, nor Sekera, have to be protected.

    Hope you’re right on this.
    Others here have posted that he has to be protected.

  164. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    deardylan:
    I thought after Oilers beat SJ last year in the playoffs and as their core and superstar JT getting very old, Marleau gone it was the beginning of their quick decline? Did anyone predict that they would get into and go into second round in the playoffs this year?

    What happened?

    Their goalies stepped up and held the fort, defence remained steady and know how to transition the puck, and forwards are faster and more disciplined. Also, Kane has been a great add for them.

    As it’s always been in the last decade (except last year obviously) I’m cheering on the sharks to finally get their first Stanley cup.

    Go Sharks!!!

  165. deardylan says:

    Is it better to make the playoffs and get swept 4-0 and getting crushed at home by Vegas or the Sharks and get a mid draft pick….or not make the playoffs and get a chance to draft a McDavid or Dahlin who will entertain you for the next decade?

    I love being an Oiler fan. It is NEVER boring.

    See you in Vegas for a big bowl of SanJoseSharkFinSoup
    (but not a real sharkfinsoup, that’s cruel)

  166. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I was hoping he could step in as a 4thliner with his reported grinder game.

    Nah, you’re thinking of Benson

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Russell’s contract becomes an extremely limited no trade by the expansion draft, so if the rules are the same, neither he, nor Sekera, have to be protected.

    Not right.

    His contract becomes a limited NTC plus a NMC – he has to be protected.

    Sekera’s contract becomes a limited NTC but with no NMC – he does not need to be proteced.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kris Russell:

    2019-20 Modified NTC, NMC $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $0 $0 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000

    2020-21 Modified NTC, NMC $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $0 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000

    CLAUSE DETAILS: 2019-20: Player submits a 10 team trade list. / 2020-21: Player submits a 15 team trade list.
    CLAUSE SOURCE: CapFriendly

  169. Wilde says:

    So I’m looking for Kris Russell trade targets for overpaid forwards, and came across Matt Beleskey’s deal.

    Man.

    Yikes.

    Yiiiiiiiiikes.

    Alain Vigneault saw him for like 9 minutes in the NHL and…

    Probably laughed like he did at Vern Fiddler’s Kevin Bieksa impression.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxfeFXdwqmA

  170. Wilde says:

    I think Carl Soderberg looks like the best play from here, by the way.

    Might have to add, but Kris Russell can play, he /has/ to have value. And it’s better to add a bit, maybe from the leftorium although that’d be two lefties out, to address the problems with the bottom six better.

    Other guys I looked at: Darren Helm, Patrick Berglund, Frans Nielson, Val Filppula, Marian Gaborik(lol), Jason Spezza, Brandon Dubinsky, Vladimir Sobotka.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    Given his clear and express desires to play in the West and, in particular Western Canada and negotiated NMC and NTC, there are only a few realistic destinations for Russell (where he’ll waive his NTC to go to).

    Here is hoping the flames re-hire Darrell Sutter – Kris Russell is a Darrell Sutter type player and will help ffill the hole when Brodie is traded from Ryan Strome plus the 2018 3rd round pick.

    Russell (with $1M retained) for Curtis Lazar.

    In – Lazar, Brodie

    Out – Russell, Strome, 3rd rounder

    Salary retained – $1M.

  172. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – I don’t understand the angst about Russel: he’s 31 years old. He does some things well. At $4MM, and totally tradeable after this year, and with no D in our system that are able to replace him, he is what he is: plays as the weaker guy on his off-side on a 2nd pairing, or ok 3rd pairing guy

    – Same with Lucic, he’s 29: sure he had a very bad 2nd half. But his first half was more than covering the bet. Last year, he was a PP witch. Somewhere between the PP witch, his first half, and the 2nd half, and either playing as a strong 3rd line winger, or back with Drai, again he’s got strong possession numbers still, his sh% should recover, and he was clearly playing hurt.

    – It’s not about Russel and Lucic why this team didn’t make playoffs: they are bona-fide players. Perhaps paid a little high based on last year’s performance, but they aren’t going anywhere

    – Our issues are:
    1) effective winger for CmD
    2) complete 2nd line anchored by Drai
    3) Goalie situation
    4) PK and PP
    5) Transistion D that also play good D
    6) A little better 4rth line

    – None of these things are rocket science, nor are they hard to get, and can get fixed this off-season

    – And Russel Lucic, they are part of solution: your not trading them for improvements

  173. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not right.

    His contract becomes a limited NTC plus a NMC – he has to be protected.

    Sekera’s contract becomes a limited NTC but with no NMC – he does not need to be proteced.

    Last time only full NMC’s had to be protected. Once there was a limited NTC attached to the NMC, one didn’t have to be protected.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – I don’t understand the angst about Russel: he’s 31 years old.He does some things well.At $4MM, and totally tradeable after this year, and with no D in our system that are able to replace him, he is what he is: plays as the weaker guy on his off-side on a 2nd pairing, or ok 3rd pairing guy

    I don’t have a problem with the player in isolation. Kris Russel has a spot on my roster and in my every day lineup, however, that’s as 3LD. Unfortunately, he is 4th on the left side depth chart behind Klefbom, Nurse and Sekera and makes $4M/season on a team with limited/no cap space.

    I am one of those that is a proponent of getting a true right shot d-man who can move the puck for the top 4 in the right side – doesn’t’ have to be an elite d-man but someone to help Larsson on the right side in the top 4.

    In order to do this, we need to open up some cap space and we need to move someone from the left side. I am not nearly as down on Sekera as many others are – he is an elite 2nd pairing d-man (lower end top pairing d-man in a crunch) and should be close to form for next year. There is a risk that he will never regain anywhere close to his prior form but I doubt that – without the brace (which severely limits his mobility), with a full summer to train, with a full training camp and with closer to a year since the surgery, we should have a much better Reggie in October and that is a massive player.

    I don’t have an issue with Russell but he makes too much money to play on the 3rd pairing and we cannot have him as 2RD going forward, not if we are going to take a step forward next season.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Last time only full NMC’s had to be protected.Once there was a limited NTC attached to the NMC, one didn’t have to be protected.

    I’m not sure that’s true. My understanding is any NMC had to be protected whether is attached to a full or limited NTC.

    Sekera currently has a full NTC and full NMC but his NMC goes away once his NTC becomes limited. As per Capfriendly, Russell retains his NMC once his NTC becomes limited.

    I’m of the understanding that NMC needs to be protected.

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – Same with Lucic, he’s 29: sure he had a very bad 2nd half.But his first half was more than covering the bet.Last year, he was a PP witch.Somewhere between the PP witch, his first half, and the 2nd half, and either playing as a strong 3rd line winger, or back with Drai, again he’s got strong possession numbers still, his sh% should recover, and he was clearly playing hurt.

    – It’s not about Russel and Lucic why this team didn’t make playoffs: they are bona-fide players. Perhaps paid a little high based on last year’s performance, but they aren’t going anywhere

    – Our issues are:
    1) effective winger for CmD
    2) complete 2nd line anchored by Drai
    3) Goalie situation
    4) PK and PP
    5) Transistion D that also play good D
    6) A little better 4rth line

    – None of these things are rocket science, nor are they hard to get, and can get fixed this off-season

    – And Russel Lucic, they are part of solution: your not trading them for improvements

    None of those things are rocket science however most of them will require cap space, cap space which we don’t have partially because we have a 3rd line winger (potentially bouncing back to a middle 6 winger) making $6M and a 3rd pairing d-man(who is fourth on the left side depth chart and will soon be a fourth left shot d-man making $4M plus when Nurse signs) making $4M.

    I don’t have a problem with these players (well, assuming Lucic can bounce back to at least not be a complete drag on linemates), however, they make too much money for their current spots in the lineup and inhibit the ability to fill the mentioned holes (2nd pairing right shot D and top 6 winger).

  177. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    I don’t have a problem with these players (well, assuming Lucic can bounce back to at least not be a complete drag on linemates), however, they make too much money for their current spots in the lineup and inhibit the ability to fill the mentioned holes (2nd pairing right shot D and top 6 winger).

    – I don’t think we disagree that much. Sure ideally that $10MM is “allocated” more optimally. But its not the paying 10% less for 10% more with either a better Lucic, or better than Russel that is the difference IMO. Over time, Russel’s role on the team will erode as hopefully other internal D surpass him, and Lucic either gets moved to Seattle with a sweetner, or goes LTIR, or does get traded. Both contracts are structured to allow these things

    – The marginal theoretical improvements that are available on different Lucic and Russel’s aren’t the difference maker next year. But more importantly they aren’t happening for next season

  178. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who:
    One more comment on a potential Russell trade.
    If the expansion draft is held in summer of 2020 and Russell’s contract demands that he be protected, why would any team trade for him?

    I believe movement clauses don’t travel unless the acquiring team agrees to it, I read it somewhere and don’t have time to read through the CBA now.

    So, the question might be does Russell agree to a trade if the movement clauses aren’t honoured. If he did it would help, but it would be quite a thing for him to do.

  179. deardylan says:

    I have no idea about trades. All I can focus on is the playoffs, cheer when Lowetide checks off his “Oilers off season needs” list and especially obsess happily who we get to draft next.

    Who do heck do we draft if we get 2-3rd or 9-11?

    Jordan B. Peterson’s 12 Rules Character Checklist:

    1. Does he stand up straight with shoulders back in interviews
    2. Treat teammates like someone he is responsible for helping
    3. Makes friends with coaches who want the best for him
    4. Compares himself to who he was yesterday, not to who someone else today
    5. Sets his game in perfect order before he criticises his linemates
    6. Tells the truth – or, at least, doesn’t lie
    7. Assumes that the coach he is listening to might know something he doesn’t
    8. He is precise and lighthearted in his speech on his twitter acccount and realizes when it comes down to it hockey is a game
    9. Plays a regular season game like it was game 7 of the playoffs
    10. Pets a stray dog when he encounters one on the street- his appreciation for other life is what makes us human
    11. Celebrates other players goals with more excitement than he does his own
    12. Doesn’t give up playing when his team is eliminated from playoffs

    What rule do you think is #1 when scouting for attitude?

    For me it is #11 (Maradona taught me that rule)

    Abridged from “12 Rules: Antidote to Chaos” by Jordan B Peterson
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_Rules_for_Life

  180. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I believe movement clauses don’t travel unless the acquiring team agrees to it, I read it somewhere and don’t have time to read through the CBA now.

    So, the question might be does Russell agree to a trade if the movement clauses aren’t honoured. If he did it would help, but it would be quite a thing for him to do.

    I think the simplest solution to Russell would be to ask him to waive that last year of NMC so he doesn’t have to be protected in expansion draft. If he doesn’t waive, you buy him out before expansion.
    I have no problem with Russell remaining an Oiler but I don’t want to waste an expansion draft protected spot for 1 more year of him.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I don’t think we disagree that much.Sure ideally that $10MM is “allocated” more optimally.But its not the paying 10% less for 10% more with either a better Lucic, or better than Russel that is the difference IMO.Over time, Russel’s role on the team will erode as hopefully other internal D surpass him, and Lucic either gets moved to Seattle with a sweetner, or goes LTIR, or does get traded. Both contracts are structured to allow these things

    – The marginal theoretical improvements that are available on different Lucic and Russel’s aren’t the difference maker next year.But more importantly they aren’t happening for next season

    One issue is your reference to “over time”.

    I am one of the more patient posters/fans and am willing to wait for a bit of a slower re-tool (I don’t need massive moves to turn this thing around in one year – I think that will lead to further crippling issues).

    With that said, most posters need tangible improvements this year and we all posit that management requires the same and will be making moves this spring/summer to improve immediately.

    We need the cap space now, not “over time” – where else is the cap space going to come from if not from a bloated contract such as Russell or Lucic (Russell bloated for his place on the depth chart)?

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I think the simplest solution to Russell would be to ask him to waive that last year of NMC so he doesn’t have to be protected in expansion draft. If he doesn’t waive, you buy him out before expansion.
    I have no problem with Russell remaining an Oiler but I don’t want to waste an expansion draft protected spot for 1 more year of him.

    Absolutely – if he’s not traded, he must be bought up prior to expansion – we aren’t in a position (and won’t be in a position to protect him).

    In isolation, I don’t have an issue with Russell on the team over the next few years but his contract makes it really tough – he’s #4 on the left side depth chart and we need to clear some cap for an acquisition on the right side of the defence (puck mover for the top 4 to help Larsson).

    We simply don’t have the cap space to keep a $4M depth d-man even though he’s got some positive attributes.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca