Strawberry Moon

In late June, the Edmonton Oilers will draft another crop of prospects who will (hopefully) blossom into productive players—maybe even receive Stanley from Connor McDavid on an early summer night in the days ahead. What would you like from an Oilers draft? High risk? Or a predictable list foretold by those who rank these things before the event? Interesting question.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Nuge finds a sweet spot in the heart of the order.
  • Lowetide: Milan Lucic at a crossroads after disastrous season.
  • Jonathan Willis: The problem was never Ryan Strome, it was Oilers’ expectations.
  • Justin Bourne: What the other 30 GM’s can learn from Vegas Golden Knights.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outstanding 2017-18 season.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

OILERS AT THE 2016 DRAFT

  • This is Player, where they were chosen, Bob McKenzie’s ranking, then Craig Button, Corey Pronman and then mine.
  • This was the last draft before Keith Gretzky.
  • Edmonton hung in on the consensus through three selections, but went walkabout with two third-round picks.
  • The three best picks, two years later, may end up being Jesse Puljujarvi, Tyler Benson and Filip Berglund.
  • The three third-round picks are kind of strange looking now. Should have stayed with the consensus, men like Josh Mahura were available when Edmonton chose Matt Cairns.

OILERS AT THE 2017 DRAFT

  • This is the first Keith Gretzky draft.
  • It is also what we can safely call a predictable list, with the first four selections universally known and ranked “in the range” or better (higher).
  • The fifth selection, Maksimov, might end up delivering huge value. Lots of criticism of Craig Button for his opinions, but he had Maksimov as a third-round selection. Both McKenzie and Pronman gave him honorable mentions.

If we use this style as a template, what might we come up with for this year’s draft? Let’s have a look.

OILERS AT THE 2018 DRAFT

  • I chose Noah Dobson because the consensus would have been Wahlstrom and I don’t think he will be there at No. 9 overall. I would choose Ty Smith. Dobson’s NHLE is 24.0, he isn’t a dynamic offensive player, but can play defense and skate well. Steve Kournianos describes him as a  “more of a facilitator than an orchestrator” in a recent article.
  • Allan McShane (NHLE: 25.7) has first-round talent.
  • Blade Jenkins (NHLE: 17.1) is close to a draft and follow, as he was born August 11, 2000.
  • Alexis Gravel is among the highest rated goalies in a down year at the position.
  • Trey Fix-Wolansky (NHLE: 31, this is his second year eligible) is another player with great hands. Edmonton may draft him and with good reason. He would be the first Oil Kings player chosen by the team since Mitchell Moroz in 2012.
  • Semyon Der-Arguchinstev (NHLE: 20) has very little buzz going on but is another skill player.

We can’t get the identical effect of one year ago, as Pronman’s/McKenzie’s lists are not yet completed. Still, I think that gives us a template of expectations for this year.

YAMAMOTO VS. DEBRINCAT

  • I’ve been using Alex DeBrincat as a Yamamoto comparable for some time now, wanted to run the final numbers (and add a wrinkle).
  • When discussing Alex DeBrincat, very important to mention his junior linemates. Connor McDavid, Dylan Strome, Taylor Raddysh, no doubt some zooming going on there. That said, DeBrincat was (and is) a splendid offensive player.
  • Kailer Yamamoto (Sept. 1998) and DeBrincat (Dec. 1997) are both late birthdays, making the comparison apt.
  • Yamamoto trails all down the line, but almost caught DeBrincat in his final 27 games (after WJ’s).
  • Oilers would be wise to have Yamamoto spend part (or all) of next season in Bakersfield, I don’t think they’ll have the discipline to do it. It’s a no lose situation if they do it, though. The young man pushes up with good performance and the organization adds depth and balance from the farm.

JOEL PERSSON

Mike Zanier (former Oilers goalie) is a hockey analyst in Sweden and drops me a line from time to time. He mentioned Joel Persson in a recent exchange (EP bio here). He’s a righty puck mover who would cost only a contract. Zanier said “He came to camp a number 7 D. Was the QB of the PP by October. Started out more as a offensive player but has developed into a solid D & still QB to the best PP in the SHL. Though Elias Pettersson might have something to do with that, he’s definitely worth looking at (for an NHL team).”

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120 Responses to "Strawberry Moon"

  1. Rondo says:

    From what i’ve read Ty Smith is a defensive liability in his own zone.
    Bouchard- is an average skater, that all Oilers need a slow D -man
    Dobson- sounds like the best option if they go for a D here.

    2nd rd- Wise or Lundkvist

    Svechnikov would be the perfect player for McDavid.

  2. Mr DeBakey says:

    The three third-round picks are kind of strange looking now.

    They weren’t not strange then too.

    * * *

    The goalie the Oilers want to add is Emil Garipov.
    AK Bars gave him Anders Nilsson’s starting job three years ago. His contract is up.
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=16732

  3. 36 percent body fat says:

    no to Dobson the Q is garbage and there NHLE adjustment says so.

    neimelainen cairs and brindamour where all just terrible picks therewas so much skill on the board still

  4. smellyglove says:

    Lowetiders,

    Like many of you, I’m an NHL stats and trade follower. I love player moves and acquisitions. I also like following players after they have moved on, but have always found this slightly inconvenient to do.

    A few weeks back I asked for some feedback on a new project to make it easy(ier) and convenient to track how well players do on their new teams. Today, I’m happy to say that after working with a programmer for a couple weeks, my new project is (mostly) up and running.

    It’s called NHL expats (www.nhlexpats.ca) [edit: had wrong url]. The name is derived from the word expatriates, which denotes people living outside their country of birth.

    It does some cool things, like pulling stats for Oilers players who have moved this year. It can also pull stats for players who were moved midseason and offseason.

    Take a look! Feedback encouraged. I hope the javascript doesn’t crash it for you. I would love to develop this as something usable to the hockey community. This is just a first step. Hope you enjoy.

  5. Confused says:

    Been banging on about Joel for weeks. The important thing is where can I still find value, Europe!

    We need to be tracking the KHL, SHL, FEL, etc actively.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    smellyglove,

    url didn’t work for me

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    ” The three third-round picks are kind of strange looking now. Should have stayed with the consensus, men like Josh Mahura were available when Edmonton chose Matt Cairns ”

    JMHO. But Adam Fox RHD that the phlegms drafted at 66th can be the steal in round 3.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=177791

    https://dobberprospects.com/adam-fox/

    https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2016/6/17/11701558/adam-fox-2016-nhl-entry-draft-prospect-profile-scouting-report-rankings-highlights-defenceman

  8. Woogie63 says:

    McShane has been noticeable in a good way at the U18 for his PK

  9. Confused says:

    Skinner holding it together, way to go stu — Go Broncos!

  10. Brantford Boy says:

    Joel Persson looks interesting…

    Good to see Dobson on the board… watch the Canucks will probably take him…

    I don’t think it matters, I tried two different NHL Draft simulators yesterday, first pull we won 1st overall… second pull 3rd… Darth Vader voice “its our destiny”…

  11. anjinsan says:

    flyfish1168,

    With you all the way, my man: Adam Fox could and should have been swiped by the Oilers in the 3rd.
    God bless, Chiarelli, and get him somewhere else in some other job.

  12. Munny says:

    Blade Jenkins. That’s a hockey name.

    The font’s a little big, but I like the look of these tables, LT. Simple, clean, easy to read.

    “Should have stayed with the consensus” There is no such thing as consensus in the 3rd round. We’re mathy people, we should know this.

    but went walkabout with two third-round picks. It continues to surprise me that something that is sacred to a people is deployed in a negative fashion.

  13. geowal says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    smellyglove,

    url didn’t work for me

    Try this one:
    http://nhlexpats.ca

  14. Stud Muffin says:

    If the Oilers waste a pick on Fix-Wolansky I’ll lose it. Just not a fan of drafting overagers, I don’t expect him to even be drafted.

  15. who says:

    Very interesting to look back on previous drafts. Starting to really appreciate Keith Gretzky when I look at Boston’s talent pool and see all the up arrows from his first Edmonton draft.
    Yamamoto actually may be the biggest dissapointment in his draft plus 1 year and his year was pretty decent. He just didn’t do anything to wow me.
    The Oilers are kinda in a no lose position with their 1st rounder this year. If they win a lottery pick they are gonna get a franchise player. Picking 3rd may open them up to some second guessing. But picking 9 or 10 should just be a matter of taking the best dman left.
    Given that there seems to be roughly the same group of players in the top 10 it will be pretty tough to screw this up.

  16. geowal says:

    smellyglove:
    Lowetiders,

    Like many of you, I’m an NHL stats and trade follower. I love player moves and acquisitions. I also like following players after they have moved on, but have always found this slightly inconvenient to do.

    A few weeks back I asked for some feedback on a new project to make it easy(ier) and convenient to track how well players do on their new teams. Today, I’m happy to say that after working with a programmer for a couple weeks, my new project is (mostly) up and running.

    It’s called NHL expats (www.nhlexpats.com). The name is derived from the word expatriates, which denotes people living outside their country of birth.

    It does some cool things, like pulling stats for Oilers players who have moved this year. It can also pull stats for players who were moved midseason and offseason.

    Take a look! Feedback encouraged. I hope the javascript doesn’t crash it for you. I would love to develop this as something usable to the hockey community. This is just a first step. Hope you enjoy.

    Neat site…helps if you promote the correct URL, I took a guess, you’re not google indexed yet 😉
    http://nhlexpats.ca
    I like it. It’d be cool if I could select, instead of all teams one season, choose one team and all, or many seasons. PPG would make it easier to compare performance, since they are fractured seasons.
    Congratulations!

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    Very enjoyable post LT. Why did you have Berglund ranked so high? He might turn out to be the real gem on the blueline.

  18. Rondo says:

    who,

    1990 Draft

  19. Pescador says:

    36 percent body fat:
    no to Dobson the Q is garbage and there NHLE adjustment says so.

    neimelainen cairs and brindamour where all just terrible picks therewas so much skill on the board still

    Who do you prefer the Oilers pick at 9?

  20. who says:

    Rondo:
    who,

    1990 Draft

    Ok I looked at the 90 draft. What am I supposed to see.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    I wanted the Oilers to pick Yamamoto. His boxcars were top 5 in the WHL and better than the guy taken 2nd OV. Never though they would do it given that is about the most non Chia pick ever and they passed on Debrincat the year before. I wonder what discussions were held to make them decide on Yamamoto

  22. geowal says:

    Lt: I know it screws up the overall rank (NA vs Europe), but I wonder if showing the CSS ranks would clarify how walkabout the walkabouts were?

  23. Rondo says:

    who,

    0 players Oilers chose played a NHL game.

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    anjinsan:
    flyfish1168,

    With you all the way, my man: Adam Fox could and should have been swiped by the Oilers in the 3rd.
    God bless, Chiarelli, and get him somewhere else in some other job.

    Hindsight. The way I see it was we were strong on LHD already and Adams numbers were pretty good, also a good skater but lacked elite acceleration which is why 3rd round is a perfect draft spot for him at the time. If there was a redraft I’m sure he would go much higher today.

  25. Rondo says:

    36 percent body fat,

    Thomas Chabot sucks from the Q.

  26. digger50 says:

    The thing we’re smaller athletes is they tend to peak earlier.

    In regards to Yamamoto, he would likely get better in the AHL, adjust to the pace of the game ect, but waiting for his “man strength “ to arrive is a myth. It’s all relative.

    Certainly not universal, but many smaller, skilled players tend to dominate early and then run out of track. While the big lanky Jessie P’s of the world continue to grow and peak later.

    I think if Yamamoto has a good camp, he’s on the team.

  27. who says:

    Rondo:
    who,

    0 players Oilers choseplayed a NHL game.

    I think you are missing the point. I’m not talking about hindsight a year, or 30, later. I’m talking about immediate post draft opinion.
    For instance, the Oilers had an easy decision in 2016 when JP fell to 4OV. But if Columbos had taken JP there was no consensus 4OV. Whether they took Tchakuk, Dubois, Juolevi, Sergachev or traded down there would have been a lot of people second guessing the pick immediately.

  28. Alpine says:

    Rondo:
    36 percent body fat,

    Thomas Chabot sucks from the Q.

    Girard is from the Q too. It’s about as good as the Dub for getting good players. Neither are the OHL.

    I’ll wait and see where Pronman has Dobson (I suspect he won’t crack top 10 but should move up from 26), but I would take him at 9-10 if Wahlstrom is off the board (he will be). I think the talent between Dobson and Smith is pretty equal and in that case I go with the player with the wider range of skills in Dobson.

  29. Confused says:

    Listening to Alan May on Bob describes the Caps defensive structure in January as pathetic,man on man across the entire defensive zone.

    Giving up so many in tight chances that Holtby game collapses. Remind us of everything?

    Enter Gru who was crap at the start on the season and gets hot. However, come the postseason everyone knows he is too short and cannot stop top shelf. So disaster!

    So in comes Holtby to try to save the series.

  30. godot10 says:

    Stud Muffin:
    If the Oilers waste a pick on Fix-Wolansky I’ll lose it. Just not a fan of drafting overagers, I don’t expect him to even be drafted.

    I agree. There is no reason whatsoever to draft Fix-Wolansky. He is the type of player who should be signed to an AHL deal as an undrafted free agent when his junior career is over. I’d be okay with that.

  31. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    who,

    0 players Oilers choseplayed a NHL game.

    The weather was particularly nice in Acapulco that winter.

  32. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Very enjoyable post LT.Why did you have Berglund ranked so high? He might turn out to be the real gem on the blueline.

    My list values offense above all else, and Berglund had a great draft season (as an overager). Swedish Poster helped with pristine updates on the player.

  33. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    smellyglove,

    – Cool tool: well done! I echo the PPG for each player for the games they played with each team

    – Also maybe be able to click on each team individually on the drop-down

    – Also for each team have a went/came: I’d like to see how Cami did in LA before he came, rather than go to LA to see that.

    – And if you really wanted to have it humming: we could click on each player and see what the acquisition cost was…

    Neat work: thanks for this smelly and for all that helped!

  34. godot10 says:

    digger50:
    The thing we’re smaller athletes is they tend to peak earlier.

    In regards to Yamamoto, he would likely get better in the AHL, adjust to the pace of the game ect, but waiting for his “man strength “ to arrive is a myth. It’s all relative.

    Certainly not universal, but many smaller, skilled players tend to dominate early and then run out of track. While the big lanky Jessie P’s of the world continue to grow and peak later.

    I think if Yamamoto has a good camp, he’s on the team.

    DeBrincat was/is a goalscorer. Yamamoto much less so. He really only scored goals in his draft year. Otherwise he scored goals at about half of the rate of DeBrincat.

    Suggests Yamamoto will need at least one season in the AHL.

  35. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: What would you like from an Oilers draft? High risk? Or a predictable list foretold by those who rank these things before the event?

    Put me down for “predictable and safe”.

    Can’t afford another Moroz or Musil type risk.

  36. Melvis says:

    Lowetide: What would you like from an Oilers draft? High risk? Or a predictable list foretold by those who rank these things before the event?

    A new billionaire and a couple of new suits.

  37. Melvis says:

    That’s a good pic of the Nuge. He looks like a warrior in all the right colours.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    I keep hearing phrases along the lines of “he’s not a dynamic offensive player” with respect to Dobson and that very well may be true but does it really matter all that much? ‘

    To me, I don’t need a “dynamic offensive player” from this draft (for a d-man) but a player that looks like he will be a plus puck-mover at the NHL level.

    To me, its not about “being dynamic offensively” but transitioning the puck out of our zone and up to our forwards.

  39. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: My list values offense above all else, and Berglund had a great draft season (as an overager). Swedish Poster helped with pristine updates on the player.

    Didn’t Berglund also play against men this year, this is a big plus for development.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:

    I think if Yamamoto has a good camp, he’s on the team.

    His $1M cap hit (nominal performance bonuses) could be a large factor.

  41. WayneKenov says:

    I’ve reached 2015 levels of apathy. Trade the pick, don’t trade the pick, what does it matter in the end? They will bungle it somehow.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I keep hearing phrases along the lines of “he’s not a dynamic offensive player” with respect to Dobson and that very well may be true but does it really matter all that much?‘

    To me, I don’t need a “dynamic offensive player” from this draft (for a d-man) but a player that looks like he will be a plus puck-mover at the NHL level.

    To me, its not about “being dynamic offensively” but transitioning the puck out of our zone and up to our forwards.

    Agreed.

    “not a dynamic offensive player, but moves the puck quickly and efficiently” is what EDM exactly needs.

    Anton Stralman type.

  43. slopitch says:

    Thoughts on trading down and building the system? We seem to be right at the end of the 2nd cluster (the 1st cluster being Dahlin and svechnikov). So generally not worth it probably.

  44. smellyglove says:

    Hey, it would help with the right URL.

    It’s http://www.NHLexpats.ca

    Let me know what you think.

  45. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: His $1M cap hit (nominal performance bonuses) could be a large factor.

    – Thats a good point. For $1MM as a 3RW what are better options?

    Lucic-Strome-Kailer

    – could be effective 3rd line. Ideally you would like to have JJ in there (or another cheap guy) at LW, and Lucic as 2LW, but I wouldn’t have a problem with this allocation: I can see this:

    RNH-McD-Rattie
    Lucic-Drai-Pool
    JJ-Strome-Kailer

  46. Woogie63 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Thats a good point.For $1MM as a 3RW what are better options?

    Lucic-Strome-Kailer

    – could be effective 3rd line.Ideally you would like to have JJ in there (or another cheap guy) at LW, and Lucic as 2LW, but I wouldn’t have a problem with this allocation:I can see this:

    RNH-McD-Rattie
    Lucic-Drai-Pool
    JJ-Strome-Kailer

    Nope

    Benson-Marody- Yamamoto need to be a thing in Cali

  47. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    From what i’ve read Ty Smith is a defensive liability in his own zone.
    Bouchard- is an average skater, that all Oilers need a slow D -man
    Dobson-sounds like the best option if they go for a D here.

    2nd rd- Wise or Lundkvist

    Svechnikov would be the perfect player for McDavid.

    Ty Smith is a defensive liability? You talking about the guy who posted a +44 in 67 games this season – and then +5 in 7 playoff games?

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woogie63,

    – Yes that would be nice.

    – But as a 3RW (and not as McD’s winger), I can see the arguments for this. Scoring at the NHL is differnet that being in the AHL: Kailer’s has to be a scorer or he’s not making it IMO. Time in the AHL to learn in the NHL is different (than for instance Pool who is hopefully going to be a 200-ft player)

    – If neither Pool or Lucic are capable of playing as wingers on the 2nd line next year, thats a problem

  49. Rondo says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Yup, watched him so far in the Under 18 tournament , looks wobbly

  50. trencan says:

    I think we overachieved previous season and finished higher than we should. On the other hand this season we underachieved and should finish higher. I wouldnt make many changes during this summer and we can expect position near playoff spot – lets say around 95 points. Yes, we are missing some important pieces in our puzzle but I believe there are some internal solutions
    in our system. I dont see reason to pay high prices via trades on players, we already have but are young and need one or two seasons of development. I believe the equation of success for this team is very simple but also very difficult – draft and develope. Management and also fans need to be patient. I think the real change will be seen in season 2019/2020 with players like Puljujarvi (long term project of development with fantastic potential), Yamamoto (Johny Hockey for McD), Bear (PP QB) in first team with more important roles. I also believe in Maximov but it will take probably more time – maybe goalscorer for Draisaitl. Area of weakness – young G with potential to be #1 in the future. Still not sure about Skinner. Overall I am optimistic about Oilers future. Oh, and again – sorry for my english 🙂

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    ArmchairGM,

    Yup, watched him so far in the Under 18 tournament ,looks wobbly

    Wobble is one thing, but zero points and +3 in two games still doesn’t indicate “defensive liability”.

  52. leadfarmer says:

    These capitals continue their awful play. Giving up odd man rush and very high danger scoring chances left and right

  53. Rondo says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Ty Smith would be a top 5 if he was a complete D. He is not.

  54. Confused says:

    leadfarmer,

    Trotz = Todd = man = help

  55. Confused says:

    Caps would be mad to let Carlson walk, how do they generate cap space?

  56. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: His $1M cap hit (nominal performance bonuses) could be a large factor.

    And who else makes it out of camp?

    Ethan Bear

    Despite our thoughts as fans, the coach and GM have shown their hand. Ethan makes the team.

  57. Confused says:

    digger50,

    Why would Ethan be more ready than someone like Persson, see LTs article.

  58. SwedishPoster says:

    I like Persson, a lot, not sure this is the time to bring him over. This is his first SHL season, before that he played third tier in Sweden which is pretty much semi-pro (and also the level I topped out on, and that’s not a great endorsment for the quality). I think it’s risky going from that to the NHL in two years. I’d say he needs another year in the SHL. Having said that he sure seems like a quick learner. So signing him, see how he translates in camp and if he’s not ready loan him back to the SHL for a year a la Lagesson might be a smart move. Thus not an Oiler move.

  59. Confused says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Great insight, do not suppose you have seen Hakanpaa.

    Sorry no idea if the FEL gets any coverage in Sweden.

  60. digger50 says:

    Confused:
    digger50,

    Why would Ethan be more ready than someone like Persson, see LTs article.

    Recognize that I can’t tell you the why, just my thoughts behind the prediction.

    Oilers traded Davidson away, probably the best #7 d they had. Auditioned Auvitu – lost interest. While we figured Bear would get a cup of coffee, the Oil showed they liked him a lot more than that.

    If they signed Persson as a “find” they might parade him out, same with our other Swedes, but I think it’s Bears job to lose right now. If Bear does get displaced is more likely due to a second pairing acquisition and Bear bumped getting bumped down or out.

    Bob and Peter are selling the long term plan and sound proud of what they are doing with scouting and draft. Bear and Yammer playing will be a feather in thier cap.

  61. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Why do I think that Hall’s team won 1 game in 2 years and Ebs missed playoffs matters?

    – Let it go Kinger

  62. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Surprised EDM didn’t have Cairns leave NCAA and go play WHL/OHL after he was dressed for so few games. I mean your top 90 pick dressed for 10 games. May have required him signing a contract, I guess and EDM may not believe in him that much since draft day.

    He and Niemelainen were real deuces dropped in the early rounds

  63. LadiesloveSmid says:

    EDM should try to sign 2015 7th rounder (don’t have his rights anymore) Miroslav Svoboda and let LB walk

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hall had a tough 1st playoff series for those that care about possession and goal share numbers.

    He got his points (and they were all primary points), however, through the first 4 games:

    CF 42.31% Rel CF -4.83

    GF% 44.44% GFrel-5.56

    xGF% 33.33% xGFrel -9.16

  65. Confused says:

    Braden versus Bob, top notch stuff.

  66. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hall had a tough 1st playoff series for those that care about possession and goal share numbers.

    He got his points (and they were all primary points), however, through the first 4 games:

    CF 42.31%Rel CF -4.83

    GF% 44.44%GFrel-5.56

    xGF% 33.33% xGFrel -9.16

    Well not sure if he was hard matched up against the Kooch line and Hedman but that’s going to hurt most non-McDavid players

  67. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Why do I think that Hall’s team won 1 game in 2 years and Ebs missed playoffs matters?

    – Let it go Kinger

    Probably because Mark Spector wrote an article about it? Or maybe Bob Stauffer said so on the radio?

    Yes let’s blame 1 player for the shortcomings of a team. That makes so much sense. Connor McDavids only won one playoff series in 3 seasons. Same line of thinking

    Better yet, the Oilers won a playoff series with Eberle and were in the bottom ten of the league without him this year.

    Truly incredible the conclusions some people can come too.

    Face meet palm

  68. pts2pndr says:

    For all those on the site that insist on including Yamamoto on the Oiler roster for next season I say good luck! I wish the young man success but looking at his season from Penticton Young Stars to date I see little that would warrant such optomism! I concur that we should not draft refrigerators but size matters! The fact that he has been played at wing through his junior career and not center should send out a few warning bells, given his size. There have been many very successful smaller players at center but far fewer as wingers. There are a miriad of reasons why!

  69. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr:
    For all those on the site that insist on including Yamamoto on the Oiler roster for next season I say good luck! I wish the young man success but looking at his season from Penticton Young Stars to date I see little that would warrant such optomism! I concur that we should not draft refrigerators but size matters! The fact that he has been played at wing through his junior career and not center should send out a few warning bells, given his size. There have been many very successful smaller players at center but far fewer as wingers. There are a miriad of reasons why!

    I think the reason there’s such a disconnect on this is twofold. First, many look at Yamamoto as a comparable for Benson, as an example. However, they are never going to be applying for the same job. Yamamoto is up for the Rob Schremp role, one dimensional skill player. The successful players of this type spend very little time in the minors and kick the daylights out of the competition (see Miro Satan, 1994-95). The longer a one dimensional skill player spends in the AHL, the less likely he’ll succeed in the NHL. Benson will be applying for the Marc Pouliot role, two way player who can fill a role as required.

    There is a group of Oilers fan who thinks Yamamoto should return to junior. There isn’t much that can be said about this argument.

  70. pts2pndr says:

    I have seen a number of posters saying they believe Kassian needs to be moved for cap reasons. The current coach believes him to be fourth line winger. Before we move him I believe he is a prototypical third line winger and able to kill penalties. Just because this is what the current coaching staff thinks does not make it so. There are a number of other players he has played above were they are capable and other such as khaira and Slepeshev that have had their progress slowed. Utilized as a third line rw and penalty killer is Kassian really over paid?

  71. Confused says:

    pts2pndr,

    TB enters the second round with Johnson, Point and Gourde

  72. geowal says:

    Lowetide,

    I sure hope Benson doesn’t want Pouliot’s role…did he even make the NHL 😉 ?

    Tell Benson they want him to be guy carbonneau…if he doesn’t balk at that, he’s ahead of Pouliot already!

  73. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide,

    – this is how I see it. Kailer is either going to be a complementary player scoring a lot of goals or he isn’t him g to make it

    – he’s actually a good test for this org. If hey yak him and teach him a lesson on how he has to be a 200 foot player he’s going to fail. If they put him in a role to score goals and he scores them he will be more than fine

    – which is why for 1mm if they can protect him on 3rw role and pp they are going to find out quick if he can make it.

    – sure send him to Bakersfield for a bit but he needs to play with skill and score goals

    – I don’t have a problem with him with strome and another non rookie getting bats in the 6 7 spot and hopefully move up

    – his development should be different than pool. He’s got a chance next year and as long as it’s not cmd winger I can see it working for 1mm and 15 goals.

  74. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3: Probably because Mark Spector wrote an article about it? Or maybe Bob Stauffer said so on the radio?

    Yes let’s blame 1 player for the shortcomings of a team. That makes so much sense. Connor McDavids only won one playoff series in 3 seasons. Same line of thinking

    Better yet, the Oilers won a playoff series with Eberle and were in the bottom ten of the league without him this year.

    Truly incredible the conclusions some people can come too.

    Face meet palm

    – angry much? I was doing some self reflection

    – hall would be awesome on an awesome team scoring on the third line. See Jessel.

    – when he’s not scoring and the going gets tough he’s not the ideal stud on a team

    – heck even the greatest winger in hockey one of the great scorers I. History he needs more. I don’t understand that Washington team. Also bad luck. Even if they wi. They have to play Pittsburgh just to get to the semis!

  75. rope-a-dope says:

    Talking drafts and Chiarelli, looks as though Bjork, Donato, Grzelcyk, Heinen, Pastrnak, Krug (undrafted free agent signing) from the current Bruins roster were drafted/brought in during his tenure. I’d also guess that some of his influence lingered over the 2015 draft which yielded two roster players (Carlo and DeBrusk). He has made a few errors in pro procurement but looks fairly astute at amateur procurement.

  76. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Agreed.

    “not a dynamic offensive player, but moves the puck quickly and efficiently” is what EDM exactly needs.

    Anton Stralman type.

    How about Anton Stralman?
    How hard would the Oilers have to pull their pants down?

  77. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – angry much?I was doing some self reflection

    – hall would be awesome on an awesome team scoring on the third line. See Jessel.

    – when he’s not scoring and the going gets tough he’s not the ideal stud on a team

    – heck even the greatest winger in hockey one of the great scorers I. History he needs more. I don’t understand that Washington team. Also bad luck. Even if they wi. They have to play Pittsburgh just to get to the semis!

    A forum on the internet seems like the type of place to do some “self-reflection” if your trying to make a point.

    In kingers world a hart trophy finalist is a third line scoring winger. If you actually want to compare him to Kessel, dig in on the numbers. He’s driven play more throughout his career. You say if he’s not scoring he doesn’t do much? Who does? Scoring more than the other team is how you win games. Milan Lucic doesn’t score or do anything when he’s not scoring.

    When the going gets tough he’s not an ideal stud? Show me some evidence of this. Anything. Baseless narrative. The going was tough for him all year. Look at how much he outscored his teammates. Looks pretty ideal to me.

    He doesn’t do anything when he’s not scoring. Yet his 5v5 GF% says he is, because he is still outscoring the opposition. An eighth seed lost to the one seed. Probably not their star players fault.

    Angry much? It’s not anger. Mostly surprise and disappointment

  78. pts2pndr says:

    Confused:
    pts2pndr,

    TB enters the second round with Johnson, Point and Gourde

    There are also people that win the lottery doesn’t make it a right way to plan your financial well being. I am looking at the overall as there will always be exceptions!

  79. WayneKenov says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – angry much?I was doing some self reflection

    – hall would be awesome on an awesome team scoring on the third line. See Jessel.

    – when he’s not scoring and the going gets tough he’s not the ideal stud on a team

    – heck even the greatest winger in hockey one of the great scorers I. History he needs more. I don’t understand that Washington team. Also bad luck. Even if they wi. They have to play Pittsburgh just to get to the semis!

    I feel for Washington going through Pittsburgh every year, sort of like the Jets and Flames back in the day. That said, the verbal on the playoff format being unfair doesn’t really fly with me. Boston and Tampa look to be the other half of the second round, and they are equally huge threats to Pittsburgh. I don’t know how the playoff format story got so much play this year. The weakness of certain divisions is apparent lower down imo.

    Metropolitan: Top team WAS-105 pts Lowest playoff team NJD-97pts. First team out of playoffs CAR-83pt
    Atlantic: Top team TBAY-117 pts Lowest playoff team TOR-105pts. First team out of playoffs FLO-95pts, then Detroit 73pts.
    So in the whole of the eastern conference there was one bubble team, and the point spread in either division is 8pts. I think you could have a reasonable argument about the Atlantic being zoomed by the dogshit teams in their division. I think it is hard to make the argument that TOR puts up WAS numbers in the Metropolitan. As I see it, the difference between playoff teams is miniscule in the east, and the difference between playoffs and not is huge. At the very least, I don’t see a path that is significantly easier than the others.

    Central: Top team NAS-117 pts Lowest playoff team COL-95pts. First team out of playoffs STL-94pt, then DAL 92 and CHI 76 – Still the strongest conference in hockey top to bottom, which makes what Nashville and Winnipeg did all the more impressive.

    Pacific: Top team VGK-109 pts Lowest playoff team LA-98pts. First team out of playoffs Cal-84.

    There are 2 more bubble teams in the west, which makes me think that a 20 team playoff is more fair. The gap between the top 19 and the bottom 12 is substantial. The Pacific is the most mediocre division in hockey, and it’s hard to believe the top teams didn’t run up the points. I think there is an argument to be made here about the Central having a harder road, but I’m not sure it’s so significant that you eliminate the division rival strategy.

  80. deardylan says:

    smellyglove:
    Lowetiders,

    It’s called NHL expats (www.nhlexpats.ca)

    SG!

    Nice work on the site. Worked perfect for me on my mac safari. Was interesting to see how players did on new teams. Will keep it bookmarked for future reference.

  81. rickithebear says:

    For those on here who believe a 17yr old is not physically the same as a 22yr old.
    Age & league equivalent NHLE
    Maksimov draft +1 .470 age/lge NHLE
    82gm 21g 29a 50pt
    13evg 17eva 30 Evp
    7ppg 11ppa 18ppp
    1shg 1sha 2 shp

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Hall is a third line player ranks up there with Draisaitl’s closest comp is Joe Colburne.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: How about Anton Stralman?
    How hard would the Oilers have to pull their pants down?

    I can’t see why they’d make him available.

  84. WayneKenov says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Hall is a third line player ranks up there with Draisaitl’s closest comp is Joel Colburne.

    He could easily be a third line winger on the Olympic team or All star team. Depends on the year though.

  85. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I can’t see why they’d make him available.

    Because his contract has a year left and they can’t keep him long term. But he wouldn’t be cheap. You would pretty much have to give them a younger cheaper version

  86. WayneKenov says:

    rickithebear:
    For those on here who believe a 17yr old is not physically the same as a 22yr old.
    Age & league equivalent NHLE
    Maksimov draft +1 .470 age/lge NHLE
    82gm 21g 29a 50pt
    13evg 17eva 30 Evp
    7ppg 11ppa 18ppp
    1shg 1sha 2 shp

    How did you get this number? Is it meant to model next season as traditional NHLe, or have you modified averages to predict peak career? If it is the former, there is not a chance in hell that that isn’t overinflated.

  87. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Agreed.

    “not a dynamic offensive player, but moves the puck quickly and efficiently” is what EDM exactly needs.

    Anton Stralman type.

    Nice prose!
    Not a dynamic offensive player (dman) Moves the puck quickly and Efficiently.

    But what is the mechanics of (not dynamic offensive) and (quickly and efficiently)

    How many years have you “insightful experts” ignored my mechanism (physic) approach. 7-8 years?

    Here is a hint Offensive dmen abandon the defence of HD area and are 4 times less efficient at scoring

    “Not dynamic offensive (prose)” translates to “defends the HD area (mechanism)”
    “Quick and efficient (prose)” translates to “get the pluck to the fwds ASAP ( mechanism)”

    “Hockey is a Physic(al) Game!”

    High even assist rate from passes but is still top60 hd dman.

  88. Lowetide says:

    Oilers frontrunners for goalie goalie Mikko Koskinen, as per Friedman.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Dynamic offensively has nothing to do with defensive play. It is a very different skill set. But I bet you want to argue that Lidstrom was not a good d man cause he put up points

  90. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Oh god I hope that’s not our backup. First season of 930 sp which seams to be the number that all the KHL goalies worth anything get. Splits time with shestyorkin this year and similar numbers but last year they were a lot worse. He is the playoff starter though

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of talk out there about the Oilers signing Mikko Koskinen when his KHL contract expires on April 30.

    His numbers look great but, just by looking at the stats, he seems to have split the net with Igor Shestyorkin (who played 3 less games) and then have near identical numbers. Igor Shestyorkin is 22, 7 years younger.

    Anyone know the deal?

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    How can anyone take that poster seriously with his extreme pretentiousness and condescension?

  93. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Perfect backup goalie for a coach that never plays backup goalies. He can just phone in to work from Russia

  94. VOR says:

    I want to re-visit the 9OV for 14OV and 19OV argument

    Below is a group of guys you could have drafted at 14 and 19 over the last 10 years:

    Matthew Barzal
    Sebastian Aho
    Jakob Chychrun
    Alex DeBrincat
    Sebastian Aho
    Kailer Yamamoto
    Dylan Larkin
    David Pastrnak
    Andre Burakovsky
    Anthony Mantha
    Shayne Gostisbehere
    Colton Parayko
    Nikita Kucherov
    Johnny Gaudreau
    Evgeny Kuznetzov
    Vladimir Tarasenko
    Nick Leddy
    Tyson Barrie
    Erik Karlsson
    John Carlson

    I don’t know if that team would ever win a game but boy would it be fun to watch.

    It isn’t where you pick but how well you draft.

    So if you think your scouts are above average trading down can make sense.

    ,

  95. treevojo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    How can anyone take that poster seriously with his extreme pretentiousness and condescension?

    In order for any zoo to be successful.

    It takes a wide variety of animals.

    That includes bears.

    http://www.lowetideszoo.ca

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador: How about Anton Stralman?
    How hard would the Oilers have to pull their pants down?

    Here’s all RHD who are positive Relative team mate GF AND positive Relative Team mate CF% over the last two years combined.

    You tend to see a lot of 3rd pair Dmen who do well on this list, I’ll try to identify them.

    I determine 1st/2nd/3rd pair by looking at WoodMoney TOI vs. Elite compared to the other Dmen on their team.

    1st pairing guys who appear here are very, very good.

    For players to get better GF% and CF% with them *while they play vs the best* is pretty tough to achieve.

    I’ll also note if the player has a great partner as that matters a lot.

    If I don’t think a player would be available I don’t say too much about him.

    Player RelT GF%
    TREVOR.VAN RIEMSDYK 12.02 – 3rd pair – With results this good can probably play 2nd pair.
    Good results vs Elite this year. Is the reason CAR is moving on from Faulk.

    JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.21 – 2nd pair this past year. More sheltered than I thought – still a killer

    ROBERT.BORTUZZO 9.95 – 3rd pair – poor results vs elite this year. 29 years old.

    JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 9.49 – 2nd/3rd pair – poor results vs elite. Still has great offence.

    JOSH.MANSON 8.93 – 1st pair with Lindholm – very good

    DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.70 – 1st pair with Gio – very good

    BRANDON.MONTOUR 8.60 – 2nd pair with Fowler – great rookie

    JAKE.DOTCHIN 7.51 – A lot of 1st pair with Hedman – good young player

    MATT.BENNING 7.35 – mostly 3rd pair but results are good, even vs Elite. I don’t trade him unless is a serious upgrade.

    CHRIS.TANEV 7.17 – mostly 1st pair still – still a killer, but health is concern. Probably the highest rated (imo) RHD who is “available” Should be a hard target.

    DREW.DOUGHTY 6.47 – Up for Norris again

    MATT.DUMBA 6.11 – 2nd pair. Much better goal results than CF%. One of the 2 Dmen who drive SH%.

    BRETT.PESCE 6.06 – 1st pair. Killer

    CODY.FRANSON 5.19 – 3rd pair mostly. Can’t skate at NHL level anymore, but plays hockey well. Not a target due to skating.

    RADKO.GUDAS 4.89 – 2nd/3rd pair. Gets suspended a lot and take a lot of penalties. A favorite of mine. I’d do it if price was reasonable.

    RYAN.ELLIS 4.77 – Killer

    BRENT.BURNS 3.97 – Riding last year’s unreal numbers. Too much too acquire, too long term on contract, too much on contract.

    SHEA.WEBER 3.89 – Still Shea Weber

    ADAM.LARSSON 3.72 – Oh Hai Mr. Larsson! All 1st pair with partners who might not be 1st pairing guys. Seriously under rated. If it was Eberle who got traded for him that trade is a win in a heartbeat

    ALEX.PETROVIC 3.69 – mostly 2nd pair 2 years ago, 3rd pair this year. Results vs Elites are a concern along with foot speed. Don’t like him as much as I used to.

    DAVID.SAVARD 3.61 – mostly results from 2 years ago. All 2nd pair. If cheap to acquire I’d be tempted, but not sold. 3 more years at $4.25

    ANTON.STRALMAN 3.59 – some 1st and 2nd. Solid all around

    ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.56 – He’d be higher on the list if Bouwmeester stayed hurt

    JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.13 – This is all 2 years ago diving this. Too old, contract too long and too much so Chiarelli will probably trade for him.

    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.76 – 1st pair killer

    BEN.LOVEJOY 2.75 – mostly 3rd pair on bad team. Skating is poor. Looks done.

    MATT.NISKANEN 2.67 – another 1st pair killer.

    CONNOR.CARRICK 2.23 – all 3rd pair. Who knows what he’ll be

    TROY.STECHER 2.13 – lots of 2nd pair. Good vs. Elite. Quietly becoming a quality Dman.

    ERIK.KARLSSON 1.83 – Hurt this year which hurt his results. The cost to acquire and salary makes this is high wire act. I’d shy away.

    MARK.PYSYK 1.70 – I wanted him since he was a Sabre. 2nd pair. Very good vs Elite. Perfect fit.

    JASON.DEMERS 1.36 – 1st pair this year, 2nd last year. Russell being here and not Demers is a crime. Perfect fit on 2RD imo. Chiarelli should have been in on him when FLA shopped him with $1MM retained for a 3rd liner. Mostly 1st this year with OEL. OEL was much better with him than with Hjarmlasson or Goligoski

    TYSON.BARRIE 1.16 – Mostly 2nd, some 1st pair. Up and down season this year. Not good vs. Elites, but played a lot with Nemeth who is a marginal NHLer, let alone top 4. I still like him.

    COLIN.MILLER 0.52 – 3rd pair. Most of this is 2 years ago, not as good of a year this year.

    P.K..SUBBAN 0.45 – much better results this year, even having to play with Emelin in a top 4 role a lot.

    JACOB.TROUBA 0.34 – Heavy 1st pair % this year. Very good player

    Honarable Mention:

    STEPHEN.JOHNS -1.06 – Slightly negative in RelTGF% over last 2 years but positive RelTCF%. Was positive RelTGF% this year. With Honka coming on Johns might shake loose and I think he’d be worth a flier. Is RFA without a contract right now.

  97. rickithebear says:

    WayneKenov: How did you get this number? Is it meant to model next season as traditional NHLe, or have you modified averages to predict peak career? If it is the former, there is not a chance in hell that that isn’t overinflated.

    Opinion: Apoint of view not based on facts or knowledge.

    The father of analytical team, comp, ZS, and equivalency is desjardins.
    At behind the net.
    Both league equivalency and CHL production by league.

    What you will observe is younger players translate performance better
    The draft year (17) eligible curve of CHL production
    First day of draft year sept 16 (1/365) translates to 50% of chl production
    Last day of draft year sept 15 (365/365) translates to 75% of chl production

    Draft year +1 (18) eligible curve
    First day of draft year translates to 40% of chl
    Last day of Draft yr translates to 50% of chl

    Draft yr +2 (19)
    First day 35% of chl
    Last day 40% of chl

    Draft yr +3 (20)
    First day 32% of chl
    Last day 35% of chl

    Draft +4 (21)
    First day 30%
    Last day 32%

    Draft +5 (22)
    First day 29%
    Last day 30%

    This is a mechanism that is identified from datum analysis.
    That shows physical superiority thru age allows for greater chl production.
    But means less translation to NHL.
    Younger translate more cause of superior skill.

    Which is reflected in every male sport. 18-27yrs

    League equivalency is accepted cause of belief in superior skill in the league.

    Both theories are reflective of superior skill one by volume ( lge) and other age

    Kiril maximov age equivalency is .470
    The league he plays in is OHL we equat it to best CHL league
    .323/.323 = 1
    Age .470 x lge 1 = .470

    Maximov draft +1
    62gm 34g 46a 80p
    ((34/62) x.47) x 82gm = 21g
    ((46/62) x.47) x 82gm = 29a
    21g + 29a = 50p

    20evg 27eva 47 Evp
    ((20/62) x .47) x82 = 12-13 evg
    ((27/62) x .47) x 82 = 17 -18 Eva

    12ppg 17ppa 29 ppp
    ((12/62) x .47) x 82) = 7-8g
    ((17/62) x .47) x82) = 10-11

    So while it is nice that you have an opinion.
    I will take the god father of equivalency who identified its importance based on skill volume and skill by age.

    It is a shame desjardins failed to present them combined as I did.
    I would like to believe that it was probably in his mind.

    So everybody
    Thier is the reason based on having both because of data.
    Explain to me why your exclusion of age is fact based and not an opinion driven by your bias towards me.

    Step up boys!

    No opinion please!

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Because his contract has a year left and they can’t keep him long term.But he wouldn’t be cheap.You would pretty much have to give them a younger cheaper version

    He’s the type of player that Yz re-signs.

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    How many years have you “insightful experts” ignored my mechanism (physic) approach. 7-8 years?

    One cannot ignore what one does not see.

    We would also accept:

    One cannot ignore what is buried under a porch

  100. Confused says:

    One for the Wilde list, Anthony Duclair

    Getting racial slurs from the stands

    Corey Snziderjer thinks he will be to expensive from CHI to resign, currently 1.2M

  101. VOR says:

    This is from two great interviews with Martin Necas in Blesk which is admittedly a very over the top tabloid. It is like Bild in Germany. Definitely a guilty pleasure. This was during the early stages of their playoffs.

    ….Was it a decisive moment, the two unanswered goals?

    “Probably yes. And our game in general. We played aggressively, completely different than the previous two matches at home.  Even though we won one game we didn’t play well. Pilsen may have played us a bit, got us off our game, so we went back to it, aggressively, and it paid off. We remembered we want to win and what it takes. The goal to make it 2:1 was a bit broken. They had that empty net and didn’t score, then we scored. We left it a little late. But our whole team did a good job. “…

    Pilsen say you are playing too aggressively, being dirty. How do you respond?

    “I can’t help what they say about me. I have to play my game. And my game is to go hard and be aggressive. If that upsets the other team, great.”

    https://isport.blesk.cz/clanek/hokej-tipsport-extraliga-generali-play-off/331727/hvezdny-talent-komety-necas-nekdy-je-i-vyhoda-zacinat-u-soupere.html

  102. Gret99zky says:

    WayneKenov:
    Trade the pick, don’t trade the pick, what does it matter in the end?

    They will bungle it somehow.

    #becauseOilers

  103. rickithebear says:

    Would guy:
    HDSH% 5: LDSH% 1
    My position is (5/6) of goal success is dependent on HD penetration.
    But CA is reflective of the failed CF from the structure used to penetrate HD.
    3-2-1 Normal after failed CF
    Fwds deep high % of no NZ trap, D collapse to defend HD
    Fwds return to high OZ position; potential for NZ trap,and press of OZ entry, then collapse to HD area.
    3-1-1-1 Rover after failed CF
    4 deep close to 100% of no NZ trap and free path to HD area
    3 deep 1 mid high % of no NZ trap and free path to HD area
    3 fwds deep high % of no NZ trap, D collapse to defend HD.
    Fwds in high Oz position; potential for NZ trap, and press OZ entry, collapse to HD area.
    4-1-1 after a failed CF
    A failed HD def nightmare.

    CF% as a def measure is nuts.
    Structure and failed CF mechanism data shows that CA is largely the bat shit crazy love for over penetration by Fwds and OFFENSIVE dmen.

    When measuring a def dman performance the measures are
    A. Cummulative HDSH% (HDSH Density)/CA
    B. High 0%corsi dmen: (blocks + misses + closed sh)/CA
    C. A&b cummulative openHDSH% (OHDSH Density)/CA

    So far you have not shown me structure or machanism that justifies your incorrect abitrary choice of CF%. IT appeals to the masses and is makes easily accepted.
    The truth is not about easy.
    I am glad you accepted my evidence that Fenwick was terrible for analysis.

    But give me your justification for GF% and relCF%
    The relative affect is acctuslly the dman,s CA created by teammates.

    Do not let your bias towards me. Create the desire to present terrible analytical approach.

  104. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers frontrunners for goalie goalie Mikko Koskinen, as per Friedman.

    Hmm, too many Ks.

    “This isn’t baseball.” — Bill James

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Honarable Mention:

    STEPHEN.JOHNS -1.06 – Slightly negative in RelTGF% over last 2 years but positive RelTCF%. Was positive RelTGF% this year. With Honka coming on Johns might shake loose and I think he’d be worth a flier. Is RFA without a contract right now.

    The fact that Hitch ran Pateryn w/ Hamihuis and they got more TOI vs Elite than Klingberg-Lindell makes me more wary of Johns.

    If Hitch picks Pateryn over Johns then maybe its best to stay away from Johns.

    Speaking of low cost UFA’:

    Pateryn made $700K last year and saw more TOI vs Elites than Klingberg.

    Didn’t do well, but didn’t get killed either.

    Sliding him into a 2RD role short term and down to 3rd if Benning earns 2RD for under $1M/yr is probably good business.

  106. russ99 says:

    Taking shorter skilled D in the top third of the first round scares me.

    All the best D are 6′ and above. Just have bad Brad Hunt memories.

    I’d rather we go for the safer pick, Veleno.

  107. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    How many years have you “insightful experts” ignored my mechanism (physic) approach. 7-8 years?

    One cannot ignore what one does not see.

    We would also accept:

    One cannot ignore what is buried under a porch

    Really buddy:

    So you could not see it for years.
    I accept that.
    I expected that.

    You did not get it or create it.

    It is all dependent on Ricki,s box.

    Who,s box?

    Not woodguy box!

    Ricki,s box.

    Anyhow!

    Take me thru your unit structure and zonal defence and what creates CF and CA.

    Remember HD:LD 5:1

    Play is reflective of 4. things and 2 people
    Desjardins
    A. Team, comp, ZS which gives you situati9nal mean performance.
    Rickithebear
    B. HD theory ( rickisbox)
    HDSH Density
    Elite HD dmen
    Save% mean established by Dpairs.
    Elite HD goalies relative to save% mean
    C. Performance repeatability
    Baseline
    Per shift
    D. Open closed/shots
    0% corsi
    Elite 0% corsi dmen
    Open sh Density
    Open sh goalies relative to OSH save% mean.

  108. rickithebear says:

    russ99:
    Taking shorter skilled D in the top third of the first round scares me.

    All the best D are 6′ and above. Just have bad Brad Hunt memories.

    I’d rather we go for the safer pick, Veleno.

    Skilled,

    Skilled In the off driven analytics of the past
    or
    the repeativve cup core structure skills (HD and OSH) of me.

  109. Craig Zonit says:

    I hope we avoid taking Bouchard at 9 (if available). Eye test warning, but watching some of his highlights tonight, I feel his skating pales in comparison to the other D available. His shot doesn’t impress, though his vision seems good. Hope we shoot for the moon instead with the pick, even if it means some years of development and a later contributor. Merkley’s almost a full year younger and in the range for P1/GP.

  110. WayneKenov says:

    rickithebear: Opinion: Apoint of view not based on facts or knowledge.

    The father of analytical team, comp, ZS, and equivalency is desjardins.
    At behind the net.
    Both league equivalency and CHL production by league.

    What you will observe is younger players translate performance better
    The draft year (17) eligible curveof CHL production
    First day of draft year sept 16 (1/365) translates to 50% of chl production
    Last day of draft year sept 15 (365/365) translates to 75% of chl production

    Draft year +1 (18) eligible curve
    First day of draft year translates to 40% of chl
    Last day of Draft yr translates to 50% of chl

    Draft yr +2 (19)
    First day 35% of chl
    Last day 40% of chl

    Draft yr +3 (20)
    First day 32% of chl
    Last day 35% of chl

    Draft +4 (21)
    First day 30%
    Last day 32%

    Draft +5 (22)
    First day 29%
    Last day 30%

    This is a mechanism that is identified from datum analysis.
    That shows physical superiority thru age allows for greater chl production.
    But means less translation to NHL.
    Younger translate more cause of superior skill.

    Which is reflected in every male sport. 18-27yrs

    League equivalency is accepted cause of belief in superior skill in the league.

    Both theories are reflective of superior skill one by volume ( lge) and other age

    Kiril maximov age equivalency is .470
    The league he plays in is OHL we equat it to best CHL league
    .323/.323 = 1
    Age .470 x lge 1 = .470

    Maximov draft +1
    62gm 34g 46a 80p
    ((34/62) x.47) x 82gm = 21g
    ((46/62) x.47) x 82gm = 29a
    21g + 29a = 50p

    20evg 27eva 47 Evp
    ((20/62) x .47) x82 = 12-13 evg
    ((27/62) x .47) x 82 = 17 -18 Eva

    12ppg 17ppa 29 ppp
    ((12/62) x .47) x 82) = 7-8g
    ((17/62) x .47) x82) = 10-11

    So while it is nice that you have an opinion.
    I will take the god father of equivalency who identified its importance based on skill volume and skill by age.

    It is a shame desjardins failed to present them combined as I did.
    I would like to believe that it was probably in his mind.

    So everybody
    Thier is the reason based on having both because of data.
    Explain to me why your exclusion of age is fact based and not an opinion driven by your bias towards me.

    Step up boys!

    No opinion please!

    Appeal to authority
    Ad Hominem
    Appeal to Ignorance

    There’s only been 26 rookies since 2010 to put up 50+ points, and most came into the league older than Maksimov. I guarantee he doesn’t put up a 50 pt season if he plays in the NHL next year. The problem with age based is that you are comparing players that aren’t comparable. For example, McDavid probably falls into the range in your calculation. It overinflates him because you are binning him where he doesn’t belong. If you put him in a group of his peers, you would find he has an NHLE of 0.

    There were 32 players to debut at 18 in the NHL since 2010. Small sample, but over 30. But wait, only 14 played more than 10 games. Of that you only have a handful of CHL guys

    Jeff Skinner
    MacKinnan
    RNH
    Ekblad
    Galchenyuk
    Chychrun
    Sprong
    Grigorenko
    Matteau

    If you pick a reasonable cutoff like 30 games, you have exclusively top end picks. No intelligent person in the world would project Maksimov from that sample, but that’s just my opinion.

  111. rickithebear says:

    WayneKenov: Appeal to authority
    Ad Hominem
    Appeal to Ignorance

    There’s only been 26 rookies since 2010 to put up 50+ points, and most came into the league older than Maksimov.

    Desjardins charts are up to age 22.

    The numbers are reflective of age 22 performance.

    I have not gone back on age of.
    Would expect 19yr .323/ (.40 + (.10x.7)) = 69% of the numbers
    Then 20yr 323/(.35 + (.05 x .7)) = 84% of numbers
    Then yr 21 .323/(.32 + (.03 x .7)) = 95% of numbers
    Then yr 22.

    Sorry for not defining progression to 22yr.

  112. rickithebear says:

    Thier have been clear progressions to my analytical approach.
    Game analysis as a fan. ( top down view)

    Game analysis relative to a young player ( system chaos)

    Fitness (above elite standard)

    Mechanism analysis thru video review of best players for my position.( baseline repeatability)

    Performing correctly in coaches system ( read repeatability) ( team trust)

    Repeat mechanics training ( unthinking Pavlovian mechanic response to correct play)

    Micheal Aubichon (world leader ) Reliability Centered Maintenance, Developed Montreal Minor hockey Association first computer driven player database late 90’s early 00’s. Taught me check list and Emperical approach to mechanisms. Density based red flagging and seeking out successful mechanism.

    Finding Lowetides site 2005.

    Vic Ferrari

    2yr of Poster Ron like minded mechanism analysis.

    Refelecting on past conversations about my hockey observations with past
    School mates Bill Lehne, Brad & Dave Tippett, (primary)
    Mark Lamb (Jr High)
    friends – Ron Gunnville, Terry Lange
    and
    Hodgson, Baumgartner, Henry, Kolstad, T. Bergen.

    Discussions with scouts
    Hockey Canada (summers PANP)
    WHL (near Hanna) about my theories.

    Chance run ins:

    Mike Valley (Disney World) past Dallas goalie coach, founder Elite Goalies.
    Full agreement with
    Table hockey movement theory
    (PH1 tracking – movement with puck) and (PH2 tracking – puck path)
    Open/closed shot theory.

    Jeannine and Dean McNabb (Hanna Burger Baron)
    Started talking with Dean, found out he was a goalie and explained; Open Closed/ shot and PH1/PH2 tracking. He found it quite interseting.

    Jeannine then asked about her son in the Buffalo organization.
    I asked her last name Mcnabb.
    I told her Brayden was elite at rehearsal skill of defending the front of the net.
    The high dangerarea.
    That like Buffalo most teams did not understand HD concept.
    That it would be teams that kept HD d that might trade for him.
    LAK traded for him weeks later.
    Recently contacted her and she ( one of many) said I could cite our conversation.
    And
    Tell Everyone my theory eased her mind about her sons future.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stuart Skinner stops 36 of 39 in a 4-3 OT win.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Does anyone actually understand these posts (or even want to)?

  115. deardylan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Does anyone actually understand these posts (or even want to)?

    “I know one thing; that I now know nothing” – Plato/Socrates/Tupac

  116. Jethro Tull says:

    Anybody remember NewAgeSys and when he wanted to sue teams for ripping off game plays he came up with?

  117. VOR says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Does anyone actually understand these posts (or even want to)?

    The thing that befuddles me is that rickithebear in other posting on other sites writes in perfectly coherent, flawless English. He is cogent, insightful and highly mathematically sophisticated on those sites. Why he posts garbage here is beyond me.

    Occasionally, in his rants here he slips and says something that reveals he has interesting, useful things to say. Then he goes back to posting gibberish. I can’t even come up with a wild guess as to why.

  118. Bob Arctor says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Anybody remember NewAgeSys and when he wanted to sue teams for ripping off game plays he came up with?

    Did he post here? I thought was an expert over at copperand blue.

  119. Lowetide says:

    Bob Arctor: Did he post here? I thought was an expert over at copperand blue.

    I believe that is correct.

  120. Lowetide says:

    Ricki: I believe you’re a very smart guy, and like many smart guys I know there are gaps, not necessarily in knowledge but in communication. I will give you this forum, publish your work as a post, if you will show us your work. I mean this respectfully.

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