Umbrella Summer

I sometimes wonder if people realize exactly how many draft picks Peter Chiarelli traded at 2015’s draft weekend. Not only did the new general manager trade a mountain of picks, he happened to be standing in the deepest draft in a dozen years at the time.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers shop the world for you. (will post link).
  • Lowetide: Nuge finds a sweet spot in the heart of the order.
  • Lowetide: Milan Lucic at a crossroads after disastrous season.
  • Jonathan Willis: The problem was never Ryan Strome, it was Oilers’ expectations.
  • Justin Bourne: What the other 30 GM’s can learn from Vegas Golden Knights.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outstanding 2017-18 season.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

I often do mock drafts leading up to the actual edition. It’s a fun way to discover some of the lesser names and to gauge what might be available. Since my list is “math hearts run free” there’s a long list of smaller skill guys on my list who get chosen the following season (don’t ask me why). As a way of showing you just how many picks the Oilers owned on Connor McDavid lottery day, here’s my 2015 mock from draft morning (source).

2015 OILERS MOCK

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid. My guess is he’s at center ice for opening faceoff 2015-16, with Hall and Eberle alongside. Music!
  • No. 16 overall: C Joel Eriksson Ek. Impressive C, good offense and a gritty style.
  • No. 33 overall: D Travis Dermott. Effective offensive defender, can play defense.
  • No. 57 overall: D Ethan Bear. Solid defenseman, built like a brick outhouse, fine shot.
  • No. 79 overall: G Matej Tomek. Tomek and Jalad at Tanagra. He’s a good goalie.
  • No. 86 overall: C Tyler Soy. Very talented player, spiked in the second half.
  • No. 117 overall: D Jeremy Lauzon. Big defender with a range of skills. May be long gone before this.
  • No. 124 overall: R Keegan Kolesar. Tough winger with some skill, Oilers looking for this type. He can play.
  • No. 154 overall: C Alexandre Goulet. Checking C if he makes it, does a lot well at evens.
  • No. 184 overall: C Tyson Baillie. Extreme skill, hard worker, speed only average. Could be a home run pick. Seriously.

That’s 10 picks in an enormous draft. My selections would have gathered impressive quality, perhaps Oilers scouts could have done better. I believe they would have. The main point here is this: If, for some reason, you believe Peter Chiarelli will hold back the water on trading No. 9 overall this summer, may I suggest you have it wrong? He had 10 picks in the deepest draft since 2003 and clipped that number by four. Picks 16, 33, 57, 79 and 86 were all traded away. Mr. Chiarelli is aggressive on draft weekend, and I don’t think changing to decaf will help.

  • Peter Chiarelli: At some point, yes I would put that pick in play. It would have to make sense, there’s a whole cluster of D that I like you know, but it would certainly be consistent to what we’re trying to do if we look. Again if we win the lottery or if we’re in the top three, I’d have to re-think that, but we could end up, well we we’re No. 9 now, we could end up 12, right, so I’d have to look at it. I wouldn’t rule it out.”

The least intrusive trade option is the No. 9 overall selection in terms of impacting next year’s team. Based on comments sent to me after yesterday’s post, you (as a group) have gathered around Evan Bouchard as the correct choice and that’s set in stone. I still think they would prefer a forward and have a candle lit for Ty Smith if they’re going blue. I would not trade the pick, tell you why at the end.

OILERS DRAFT PICKS, 2018

  • First Round—No. 9 overall
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya has now covered the condition. It is a fourth).
  • Fifth Round—No. 131 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 162 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 193 overall

BUBBLING UNDER

Here are the players under control to the Oilers organization who are currently not signed to a North American pro contract. Date next to their name is the deadline for the organization to sign them (via CapFriendly).

  1. L Aidan Muir (NCAA) August 15, 2018.
  2. RC Tyler Vesel (NCAA) August 15, 2018.
  3. G Stuart Skinner (WHL) June 1, 2019.
  4. RC Joey Dudek (NCAA) August 15, 2019.
  5. RD Vincent Desharnaies (NCAA) August 15, 2019.
  6. RD Filip Berglund (SHL) June 1, 2020.
  7. LD Markus Niemelainen (Mestis) June 1, 2020.
  8. L Graham McPhee (NCAA) August 15, 2020.
  9. RD John Marino (NCAA) August 15, 2020.
  10. LD Matt Cairns (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  11. RD Phil Kemp (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  12. RC Aapeli Rasanen (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  13. C Skyler Brind’Amour (BCHL). No deadline stated.
  14. LC Roman Horak. Indefinite.
  15. LC Bogdan Yakimov. Indefinite.

If I had to bet on Edmonton signing just one of these names over the summer, it would be Stuart Skinner. After that, John Marino. He’s a righty, is 20, and has delivered two strong seasons for Harvard. It might be time to turn pro. Muir and Vesel need to be signed by August 15, not certain either man gets an NHL deal.

I am writing about this over at The Athletic this morning, article should be up today or tomorrow. I originally included four goalies as options, looks like Mikko Koskinen might be the one. I’ll say two things about him this morning: He has been good for some time at that level and his numbers do not separate him from his backup or other good KHL netminders. If Edmonton is shopping in the KHL aisle, the contract is likely to be cap friendly—important in the summer of frugal. I am encouraged in that the story dovetails with my article on February 2 about a quiet summer around the edges. The one tweak I would make in that item: The big asset in is likely to be a right-handed puck mover instead of a scoring winger. I do believe Chiarelli will spend his money on defense (again) and get frugal on the wing and in goal.

DON’T TRADE THE PICK!

I don’t remember who told me, maybe it isn’t even true. At some point, I became convinced that each season has a varying degree of ‘top 10 overall’ talent (partly because teams apparently judge drafts in this way). Edmonton drafts No. 9 overall this year, there’s a chance the pick moves to No. 1 overall or No. 12 overall. Chances are it is 9 or 10.

I count 10 prospects who can safely be included as a top-10 rated player. My list (alpha) is Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin, Joel Farabee, Quinn Hughes, Ty Smith, Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, Oliver Wahlstrom, Filip Zadina.

Edmonton will have at least two of those names available to them at No. 9 overall. I’ll guess Boqvist and Farabee. Simon is right. Take the pick unless someone overwhelms you and that includes helping with the cap issue.

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201 Responses to "Umbrella Summer"

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  1. frjohnk says:

    If true, $2.5M per year over 2 years for a backup who has played 4 games in the NHL seems a bit steep to me.

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