Umbrella Summer

I sometimes wonder if people realize exactly how many draft picks Peter Chiarelli traded at 2015’s draft weekend. Not only did the new general manager trade a mountain of picks, he happened to be standing in the deepest draft in a dozen years at the time.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers shop the world for you. (will post link).
  • Lowetide: Nuge finds a sweet spot in the heart of the order.
  • Lowetide: Milan Lucic at a crossroads after disastrous season.
  • Jonathan Willis: The problem was never Ryan Strome, it was Oilers’ expectations.
  • Justin Bourne: What the other 30 GM’s can learn from Vegas Golden Knights.
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s outstanding 2017-18 season.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

I often do mock drafts leading up to the actual edition. It’s a fun way to discover some of the lesser names and to gauge what might be available. Since my list is “math hearts run free” there’s a long list of smaller skill guys on my list who get chosen the following season (don’t ask me why). As a way of showing you just how many picks the Oilers owned on Connor McDavid lottery day, here’s my 2015 mock from draft morning (source).

2015 OILERS MOCK

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid. My guess is he’s at center ice for opening faceoff 2015-16, with Hall and Eberle alongside. Music!
  • No. 16 overall: C Joel Eriksson Ek. Impressive C, good offense and a gritty style.
  • No. 33 overall: D Travis Dermott. Effective offensive defender, can play defense.
  • No. 57 overall: D Ethan Bear. Solid defenseman, built like a brick outhouse, fine shot.
  • No. 79 overall: G Matej Tomek. Tomek and Jalad at Tanagra. He’s a good goalie.
  • No. 86 overall: C Tyler Soy. Very talented player, spiked in the second half.
  • No. 117 overall: D Jeremy Lauzon. Big defender with a range of skills. May be long gone before this.
  • No. 124 overall: R Keegan Kolesar. Tough winger with some skill, Oilers looking for this type. He can play.
  • No. 154 overall: C Alexandre Goulet. Checking C if he makes it, does a lot well at evens.
  • No. 184 overall: C Tyson Baillie. Extreme skill, hard worker, speed only average. Could be a home run pick. Seriously.

That’s 10 picks in an enormous draft. My selections would have gathered impressive quality, perhaps Oilers scouts could have done better. I believe they would have. The main point here is this: If, for some reason, you believe Peter Chiarelli will hold back the water on trading No. 9 overall this summer, may I suggest you have it wrong? He had 10 picks in the deepest draft since 2003 and clipped that number by four. Picks 16, 33, 57, 79 and 86 were all traded away. Mr. Chiarelli is aggressive on draft weekend, and I don’t think changing to decaf will help.

  • Peter Chiarelli: At some point, yes I would put that pick in play. It would have to make sense, there’s a whole cluster of D that I like you know, but it would certainly be consistent to what we’re trying to do if we look. Again if we win the lottery or if we’re in the top three, I’d have to re-think that, but we could end up, well we we’re No. 9 now, we could end up 12, right, so I’d have to look at it. I wouldn’t rule it out.”

The least intrusive trade option is the No. 9 overall selection in terms of impacting next year’s team. Based on comments sent to me after yesterday’s post, you (as a group) have gathered around Evan Bouchard as the correct choice and that’s set in stone. I still think they would prefer a forward and have a candle lit for Ty Smith if they’re going blue. I would not trade the pick, tell you why at the end.

OILERS DRAFT PICKS, 2018

  • First Round—No. 9 overall
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya has now covered the condition. It is a fourth).
  • Fifth Round—No. 131 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 162 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 193 overall

BUBBLING UNDER

Here are the players under control to the Oilers organization who are currently not signed to a North American pro contract. Date next to their name is the deadline for the organization to sign them (via CapFriendly).

  1. L Aidan Muir (NCAA) August 15, 2018.
  2. RC Tyler Vesel (NCAA) August 15, 2018.
  3. G Stuart Skinner (WHL) June 1, 2019.
  4. RC Joey Dudek (NCAA) August 15, 2019.
  5. RD Vincent Desharnaies (NCAA) August 15, 2019.
  6. RD Filip Berglund (SHL) June 1, 2020.
  7. LD Markus Niemelainen (Mestis) June 1, 2020.
  8. L Graham McPhee (NCAA) August 15, 2020.
  9. RD John Marino (NCAA) August 15, 2020.
  10. LD Matt Cairns (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  11. RD Phil Kemp (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  12. RC Aapeli Rasanen (NCAA) August 15, 2021.
  13. C Skyler Brind’Amour (BCHL). No deadline stated.
  14. LC Roman Horak. Indefinite.
  15. LC Bogdan Yakimov. Indefinite.

If I had to bet on Edmonton signing just one of these names over the summer, it would be Stuart Skinner. After that, John Marino. He’s a righty, is 20, and has delivered two strong seasons for Harvard. It might be time to turn pro. Muir and Vesel need to be signed by August 15, not certain either man gets an NHL deal.

I am writing about this over at The Athletic this morning, article should be up today or tomorrow. I originally included four goalies as options, looks like Mikko Koskinen might be the one. I’ll say two things about him this morning: He has been good for some time at that level and his numbers do not separate him from his backup or other good KHL netminders. If Edmonton is shopping in the KHL aisle, the contract is likely to be cap friendly—important in the summer of frugal. I am encouraged in that the story dovetails with my article on February 2 about a quiet summer around the edges. The one tweak I would make in that item: The big asset in is likely to be a right-handed puck mover instead of a scoring winger. I do believe Chiarelli will spend his money on defense (again) and get frugal on the wing and in goal.

DON’T TRADE THE PICK!

I don’t remember who told me, maybe it isn’t even true. At some point, I became convinced that each season has a varying degree of ‘top 10 overall’ talent (partly because teams apparently judge drafts in this way). Edmonton drafts No. 9 overall this year, there’s a chance the pick moves to No. 1 overall or No. 12 overall. Chances are it is 9 or 10.

I count 10 prospects who can safely be included as a top-10 rated player. My list (alpha) is Adam Boqvist, Evan Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin, Joel Farabee, Quinn Hughes, Ty Smith, Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, Oliver Wahlstrom, Filip Zadina.

Edmonton will have at least two of those names available to them at No. 9 overall. I’ll guess Boqvist and Farabee. Simon is right. Take the pick unless someone overwhelms you and that includes helping with the cap issue.

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201 Responses to "Umbrella Summer"

Newer Comments »
  1. Woogie63 says:

    Filip Berglund has gotten some love this season, is he a possibility to sign and then loan to a Swedish team?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    Filip Berglund has gotten some love this season, is he a possibility to sign and then loan to a Swedish team?

    He has two more years I believe on a contract. Negotiations can be made but it sounds like a next summer thing.

  3. wheatnoil says:

    If we’re looking at likely expansion draft in 2020 with the same rules, likely whoever you trade the pick for would not be expansion exempt where as the #9 would be safe. Might be an additional factor in keeping the pick, though I’m not sure Chiarelli has the luxury to look that far ahead.

  4. VOR says:

    Hey LT,

    No disrespect but I think you need to define what you mean by deep.

    To date 57 players from the 2015 draft have played one or more games in the NHL. That is 27%.

    To date 124 players drafted in 2011 have played one or more games in the NHL. That is 58.8%.

    For 2015 to catch up it needs another 67 members of the class to play in the NHL.

    That is very unlikely.

    I expect you are talking about high end talent available but would like you to confirm it.

  5. The Duke of Hafford says:

    Wahlstrom looks to be the guy but likely won’t be there at 9. Instead of trading back, the Oilers should look at trading up to get this guy. Would it cost to move up in the draft? We never talk about moving up.

  6. vesci says:

    wheatnoil:
    If we’re looking at likely expansion draft in 2020 with the same rules, likely whoever you trade the pick for would not be expansion exempt where as the #9 would be safe. Might be an additional factor in keeping the pick, though I’m not sure Chiarelli has the luxury to look that far ahead.

    It is precisely because Chia doesn’t have the option to be patient that I would not have brought him back. I think he is starting from a position of limited options and some level of desperation. This combined with what appears to be his natural tendency to be impatient and devalue draft picks makes me very nervous that following this summer the Oilers will be in a worse place and not a better one long term.

  7. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    Deepest draft since 2003. High end talent and lots of it pushing the pretty good players later than normal. Playing one game 7 years after a draft should never be a measure of success. Neither should 200 games for 1st rounders. But if that’s what you really want to use you need to wait more than 3 seasons to compare side by side to a draft 7 years ago. Our host suggests 5 years which gets most but not all successes

  8. Confused says:

    Would welcome Mikko to the team.

    Huge, the monster 2.0, Francouz probably technically better but only 6,0

    Oilers clearly like big goalies. Needs to work on speed this summer.

    Keep Al.

    Cam, Mikko and Al all hit camp, options, redendancy. Everything goes well try to squeeze Al to Bake.

  9. stevebergeron97 says:

    Watching the U18’s this morning, and I must say Ty Smith is a stud. So calm and collected, I think I’ll be genuinely upset if his name isn’t called when Chia takes the podium on draft day. Merkley has looked good today as well, makes some pretty gorgeous passes in the offensive zone.

  10. Lowetide says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Watching the U18’s this morning, and I must say Ty Smith is a stud. So calm and collected, I think I’ll be genuinely upset if his name isn’t called when Chia takes the podium on draft day. Merkley has looked good today as well, makes some pretty gorgeous passes in the offensive zone.

    He’s an outstanding talent.

  11. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    Hey LT,

    No disrespect but I think you need to define what you mean by deep.

    To date 57 players from the 2015 draft have played one or more games in the NHL. That is 27%.

    To date 124 players drafted in 2011 have played one or more games in the NHL. That is 58.8%.

    For 2015 to catch up it needs another 67 members of the class to play in the NHL.

    That is very unlikely.

    I expect you are talking about high end talent available but would like you to confirm it.

    I don’t think that measure is especially helpful, so can’t really comment on it. I stand by my original wording.

  12. who says:

    My God LT. When I look at your 2015 mock draft I can’t help but think how much further ahead the Oilers would be if they had just made you GM. They would have a quality young center and emerging dman to add to the Mcdavid cluster.
    I don’t know if it was Chia’s decision to try and speed up the process, or if he was pressured into it by someone higher up, but someone needs to lose their job for that decision alone.

  13. who says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Watching the U18’s this morning, and I must say Ty Smith is a stud. So calm and collected, I think I’ll be genuinely upset if his name isn’t called when Chia takes the podium on draft day. Merkley has looked good today as well, makes some pretty gorgeous passes in the offensive zone.

    I’m seeing the exact opposite this morning.
    Looks like he’s trying to force things and has turned the puck over several times.

  14. Lowetide says:

    who:
    My God LT.When I look at your 2015 mock draft I can’t help but think how much further ahead the Oilers would be if they had just made you GM. They would have a quality young center and emerging dman to add to the Mcdavid cluster.
    I don’t know if it was Chia’s decision to try and speed up the process, or if he was pressured into it by someone higher up, but someone needs to lose their job for that decision alone.

    I believe the Oilers scouts would have done better. Seriously. This scouting staff has had one round since 2015 (third round 2016) that had wobble. Theyre good.

  15. frjohnk says:

    who: but someone needs to lose their job for that decision alone

    “Management continuity is more important than management making good decisions”

    This is above the doorway entering the hallway of Oilers management.

  16. flyfish1168 says:

    We all want to see our team make the playoffs next year. I also want us to see sustain success and that is drafting and developing our depth and farm. If our AHL team continually miss the playoffs it will reflect on the parent team. I say keep the draft pick.

    PC should have a macro view of the hockey organization professional teams. His success should be both NHL and AHL teams making the playoffs, not just one or the other. That should be his measure of a successful season and sustainability.

  17. slopitch says:

    Don’t trade the pick unless they get an offer they can’t refuse so to speak. Do to non-hockey reasons picks are worth more to Edmonton, Winnipeg and the teams that can’t afford to spend to the cap. It’s an unfortunate reality but it manageable. Just keep the picks, get them right and build a deep team. We have 97, that’s a bigger advantage 🙂

  18. who says:

    Lowetide: I believe the Oilers scouts would have done better. Seriously. This scouting staff has had one round since 2015 (third round 2016) that had wobble. Theyre good.

    All the more reason to keep the picks.
    I am really scared of what a desperate Chia may do this summer.

  19. Woogie63 says:

    Since “the” trade Larsson has won 7 play-off games…..

    Runs and hides

  20. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    Since “the” trade Larsson has won 7 play-off games…..

    Runs and hides

    I am a fan of Adam Larsson.

  21. tileguy says:

    who:
    My God LT.When I look at your 2015 mock draft I can’t help but think how much further ahead the Oilers would be if they had just made you GM. They would have a quality young center and emerging dman to add to the Mcdavid cluster.
    I don’t know if it was Chia’s decision to try and speed up the process, or if he was pressured into it by someone higher up, but someone needs to lose their job for that decision alone.

    Do you think Katz will pay Chiarelli hush money, ala Stormy Daniels, when his contract expires? What a tale he could tell, starting from the 16 and 33 trade.

  22. Oilman99 says:

    This team is just getting a solid minor league pipeline built,God forbid this guy squanders another good set of draft picks to try to save his ass. At this stage I would hope management has a set of checks and balances built in to ensure he doesn’t instill more damage to the franchise.

  23. Bryan says:

    Even if there wasn’t another expansion draft on the horizon keeping the pick would be the right move but that just makes it more of an easy decision. Unless someone comes with an offer that is impossible to refuse, which is highly unlikely, just keep stocking the cupboard. In a salary cap system there is no other other way to have sustained success.

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oilman99:
    This team is just getting a solid minor league pipeline built,God forbid this guy squanders another good set of draft picks to try to save his ass. At this stage I would hope management has a set of checks and balances built in to ensure he doesn’t instill more damage to the franchise.

    Let’s hope PC has more rope than McL. It might stop unwise choices

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bryan:
    Even if there wasn’t another expansion draft on the horizon keeping the pick would be the right move but that just makes it more of an easy decision.Unless someone comes with an offer that is impossible to refuse, which is highly unlikely, just keep stocking the cupboard.In a salary cap system there is no other other way to have sustained success.

    I would add trading aging players with rep for younger players or assets instead of retaining their decline.

  26. Bryan says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I would add trading aging players with rep for younger players or assets instead of retaining their decline.

    Yes bringing in cheaper and younger talent and sending out older expensive assets is the correct formula although sometimes difficult for fans to buy in to when it is a favourite player leaving. The Bill Belichick method.

  27. who says:

    tileguy: Do you think Katz will pay Chiarelli hush money, ala Stormy Daniels, when his contract expires? What a tale he could tell, starting from the 16 and 33 trade.

    Yeah. It would be an interesting story.
    If the pressure came from Katz then I guess you really can’t blame Chia and, unfortunately, you can’t fire Katz. And if Katz really did overule the scouts and forced the Yakupov selection you have a clear history of the owner meddling in hockey decisions. Not ideal but I bet a lot of us would be doing the same things if we owned the team.
    I bet this happens in a lot of pro sports organizations. Sometimes the GM just doesn’t have the final say.

  28. who says:

    Watching the U18’s the guy who has impressed me the most is Noel. Big, rangy winger who can skate and handle the puck. Veleno looks pretty good as well.

  29. Westchester Oil says:

    Oilman99:
    This team is just getting a solid minor league pipeline built,God forbid this guy squanders another good set of draft picks to try to save his ass. At this stage I would hope management has a set of checks and balances built in to ensure he doesn’t instill more damage to the franchise.

    A big part of the problem with GM’s, IMHO, is improper alignment of incentives, e.g. trying to save their job in the short term rather than do what is in the best long-term interests of the team. Part of Chiarelli’s compensation package should be bonuses tied to the next 5+ years performance by the Oilers, regardless of whether Chia is still around or not.

  30. Rondo says:

    Ty Smith doesn’t look like a top #10 pick from what I’ve seen in this U18 tournament.

  31. who says:

    Lowetide: I am a fan of Adam Larsson.

    Just for shits and giggles imagine this team minus Chia’s worst 2 moves, the Reinhart trade and the Lucic signing. Then use LT’s mock draft to fill in.
    We would have the same roster we have now plus Erikson Ek and Dermot minus Lucic. And 6 more million in cap space.
    How would everyone feel about that team going into the summer?

  32. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Ty Smith doesn’t look like a top #10 pick from what I’ve seen in this U18 tournament.

    Always a bad idea to make decisions on small sample sizes.

  33. Bryan says:

    who: Just for shits and giggles imagine this team minus Chia’s worst 2 moves, the Reinhart trade and the Lucic signing. Then use LT’s mock draft to fill in.
    We would have the same roster we have now plus Erikson Ek and Dermotminus Lucic. And 6 more million in cap space.
    How would everyone feel about that team going into the summer?

    Or Barzal and Dermot. Either way it would be a much more promising situation.

  34. Dustylegnd says:

    Lowetide: I am a fan of Adam Larsson.

    I think the vast majority of Oilers fans are fans of Adam Larsson, he is a really good #3 D man, that should cost something other than an all world winger.

  35. Psyche says:

    The current Oilers management and scouting staff hasn’t gone “walk-about” much or at all since they took over. That’s one positive! Previous to that it was a regular occurrence on draft day.

    Let’s keep the picks and find a couple more in the top 75.

  36. who says:

    Rondo:
    Ty Smith doesn’t look like a top #10 pick from what I’ve seen in this U18 tournament.

    I thought he looked pretty good in the first 2 games. He has been bad today.

  37. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: Just for shits and giggles imagine this team minus Chia’s worst 2 moves, the Reinhart trade and the Lucic signing. Then use LT’s mock draft to fill in.
    We would have the same roster we have now plus Erikson Ek and Dermotminus Lucic. And 6 more million in cap space.
    How would everyone feel about that team going into the summer?

    There are very few sports teams or publicly traded companies that consistently run on what is the best thing to do all round and in the long run.

    I think because of how incentives are structured and well, there are just too many humans involved. There aren’t a ton of altruists in high level positions.

    With the Oilers in particular there is no way to know what drives the poor decisions but PC and the coach get to wear it.

    At least now they make boatloads of money to ease their pain.

  38. GCW_69 says:

    vesci: It is precisely because Chia doesn’t have the option to be patient that I would not have brought him back. I think he is starting from a position of limited options and some level of desperation. This combined with what appears to be his natural tendency to be impatient and devalue draft picks makes me very nervous that following this summer the Oilers will be in a worse place and not a better one long term.

    When you hear rumours Chiarelli might have to “check upstairs” before making any trades, this should be the reason. NOT to satisfy the Boys on the Bus vision for the team.

  39. trencan says:

    Anton Lander just won Gagarin Cup in KHL. He played as 1C, good for him…

  40. Bryan says:

    I don’t like to spend a lot of time dwelling on past mistakes because they can’t be undone but it is important to learn from these and hopefully move forward with a plan that will create a long term formula of success.

  41. Bos8 says:

    All I would say on the Chia topic. “Look at the roster compared to three years ago. The pump is primed”. Six quality forwards coming to an AHL team dear to us. Jones, Bear, Lageson and Berglund on the D. Burda as head of European scouting. You have to have a number of assets because some will flame out.

    All this and Chia has one man on his team, Gretzky. All else are some degree of ankle biters.

  42. Dustylegnd says:

    GCW_69: When you hear rumours Chiarelli might have to “check upstairs” before making any trades, this should be the reason. NOT to satisfy the Boys on the Bus vision for the team.

    If this is the actual management structure, organizational failure is a certainty, how do you continue to employ a GM that you do not trust to make important decisions??

  43. Bos8 says:

    “It’s hard to soar with the eagles when you’re held back by turkeys”. Someone said that.

  44. godot10 says:

    Bryan: Yes bringing in cheaper and younger talent and sending out older expensive assets is the correct formula although sometimes difficult for fans to buy in to when it is a favourite player leaving.The Bill Belichick method.

    Kraft is probably going to rue the day that he sided with Brady and forced Belichick to trade Garappolo.

    Already he has Brady and Gronk testing the boundaries of the Patriot Way.

    Sort of hope Lamar Jackson falls to 23 in the draft and Belichick picks him.

  45. Brantford Boy says:

    Lowetide: I am a fan of Adam Larsson.

    I am a huge fan of Adam Larrson… damn it LT you had Dobson etched in ‘blog stone’ yesterday, now its Evan Bouchard… man make up your bloody mind… I can dig up the link if required 😉

  46. godot10 says:

    Bos8:
    “It’s hard to soar with the eagles when you’re held back by turkeys”.Someone said that.

    But I swear to God, I thought turkeys could fly.

  47. leadfarmer says:

    trencan,

    Good for him that he got more goals than Klinkhammer even though in more games

  48. Bos8 says:

    godot10: But I swear to God, I thought turkeys could fly.

    Good quote.

    WKRP bless em

  49. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Yes but compared to eagles it’s not very graceful. It’s like watching an overfilled Hercules taking off. By some miracle it gets airborne but it’s sure not pretty.

    I have a family of 20 wild turkeys that live in my yard. When the young ones learn how to roost in a tree is one of my favorite times each year

  50. Old Timer says:

    There is no sense in th Oilers drafting a D man in the firs round who is not a plus skater.

    Bouchard is not a plus skater.

  51. Bryan says:

    godot10: Kraft is probably going to rue the day that he sided with Brady and forced Belichick to trade Garappolo.

    Already he has Brady and Gronk testing the boundaries of the Patriot Way.

    Sort of hope Lamar Jackson falls to 23 in the draft and Belichick picks him.

    I think Brady ruined the Garappolo plan by refusing to decline. No doubt Kraft over ruled Belichick on this one but if you are ever going to deviate from your formula then doing it for the guy who took you to eight Super Bowls is probably okay.

  52. trencan says:

    leadfarmer:
    trencan,

    Good for him that he got more goals than Klinkhammer even though in more games

    But Klinkhammer scored the only goal in last final game 🙂

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    Oilman99:
    This team is just getting a solid minor league pipeline built,God forbid this guy squanders another good set of draft picks to try to save his ass. At this stage I would hope management has a set of checks and balances built in to ensure he doesn’t instill more damage to the franchise.

    Funny. I find myself hoping there’s adequate checks and balances to mitigate against the Owner & OBC pushing for immediate improvements in the form of big trades or whale hunts.

    Look at how long it’s taking to ‘evaluate’ and make a decision on MacLellan, as opposed to Calgary’s actions to date. Chiarelli is not an autocrat. Glory boy groupthink is the problem with this org imo, not a single loose cannon GM.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bryan: I think Brady ruined the Garappolo plan by refusing to decline.No doubt Kraft over ruled Belichick on this one but if you are ever going to deviate from your formula then doing it for the guy who took you to eight Super Bowls is probably okay.

    Tough situation as it seems to have driven a wedge between Bellichick and Brady regardless. Garappolo could’ve been the perfect succession plan, their version of Montana to Young. I think that was important to Bill as winning without Brady and setting the team up for future success is a win/win for the GM/HC. For the GOAT, not as much.

    I agree though. Loyalty is a good reason to make a bad decision.

  55. Lowetide says:

    Brantford Boy: I am a huge fan of Adam Larrson… damn it LT you had Dobson etched in ‘blog stone’ yesterday, now its Evan Bouchard… man make up your bloody mind… I can dig up the link if required 😉

    I just rotate the names, because Ty Smith would be the one if I were making the choice. 🙂

  56. Bos8 says:

    The question is “who built the minor league pipeline?”. Between the Harvard graduate and the GED high school graduates, I tend to go with the former.

    He got here, the system was barren.

    But hey, he’s got the title, Let’s pile on.

  57. Bos8 says:

    It’s chickenshit, “Authority without responsibility”.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Always a bad idea to make decisions on small sample sizes.

    A conversation from my twitter feed:

    @Leadershipleaf

    Is Ty Smith having a bad showing so far? Have not been impressed with what I’ve seen?

    Corey Pronman

    Verified account

    @coreypronman

    Ya this is uncharacteristic. Funny though his worst games (U18’s + CHLTPG) have all been on national TV. I’d bump Merkley up to the top PP unit though.

    Small sample sizes indeed.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I agree though. Loyalty is a good reason to make a bad decision.

    *Stan Bowman and Bob Murray nod so hard in agreement that they each get a concussion*

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bryan: Yes bringing in cheaper and younger talent and sending out older expensive assets is the correct formula although sometimes difficult for fans to buy in to when it is a favourite player leaving.The Bill Belichick method.

    True, at the end of the day I’m sure they would rather have a winning team more than anything.

    Connor should be the only Oiler that is never traded.

  61. Brantford Boy says:

    Lowetide: I just rotate the names, because Ty Smith would be the one if I were making the choice.

    Not cool… I think I can speak for everyone on this blog that we don’t like thinking for ourselves… we look to you as a leader… you can’t keep changing your mind… “there is only ever one way through the forest” – no source, but I bet someone actually said this – my bet is Woodguy’s phone gps?

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reposting something from last night’s thread on the never ending search for RHD:

    Note: RelTGF% and RelTCF% are not the burning bush, but in conjunction with WoodMonies for TOI vs various comps it gives us some interesting players to look at.

    Here’s all RHD who are positive Relative team mate GF AND positive Relative Team mate CF% over the last two years combined.

    You tend to see a lot of 3rd pair Dmen who do well on this list mostly due to the compe they face, I’ll try to identify them.

    I determine 1st/2nd/3rd pair by looking at WoodMoney TOI vs. Elite compared to the other Dmen on their team.

    1st pairing guys who appear here are very, very good.

    For players to get better GF% and CF% with them *while they play vs the best* is pretty tough to achieve.

    I’ll also note if the player has a great partner as that matters a lot.

    If I don’t think a player would be available I don’t say too much about him.

    Player RelT GF%
    TREVOR.VAN RIEMSDYK 12.02 – 3rd pair – With results this good can probably play 2nd pair.
    Good results vs Elite this year. Is the reason CAR is moving on from Faulk.

    JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.21 – 2nd pair this past year. More sheltered than I thought – still a killer

    ROBERT.BORTUZZO 9.95 – 3rd pair – poor results vs elite this year. 29 years old.

    JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 9.49 – 2nd/3rd pair – poor results vs elite. Still has great offence.

    JOSH.MANSON 8.93 – 1st pair with Lindholm – very good

    DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.70 – 1st pair with Gio – very good

    BRANDON.MONTOUR 8.60 – 2nd pair with Fowler – great rookie

    JAKE.DOTCHIN 7.51 – A lot of 1st pair with Hedman – good young player

    MATT.BENNING 7.35 – mostly 3rd pair but results are good, even vs Elite. I don’t trade him unless is a serious upgrade.

    CHRIS.TANEV 7.17 – mostly 1st pair still – still a killer, but health is concern. Probably the highest rated (imo) RHD who is “available” Should be a hard target.

    DREW.DOUGHTY 6.47 – Up for Norris again

    MATT.DUMBA 6.11 – 2nd pair. Much better goal results than CF%. One of the 2 Dmen who drive SH%.

    BRETT.PESCE 6.06 – 1st pair. Killer

    CODY.FRANSON 5.19 – 3rd pair mostly. Can’t skate at NHL level anymore, but plays hockey well. Not a target due to skating.

    RADKO.GUDAS 4.89 – 2nd/3rd pair. Gets suspended a lot and take a lot of penalties. A favorite of mine. I’d do it if price was reasonable.

    RYAN.ELLIS 4.77 – Killer

    BRENT.BURNS 3.97 – Riding last year’s unreal numbers. Too much too acquire, too long term on contract, too much on contract.

    SHEA.WEBER 3.89 – Still Shea Weber

    ADAM.LARSSON 3.72 – Oh Hai Mr. Larsson! All 1st pair with partners who might not be 1st pairing guys. Seriously under rated. If it was Eberle who got traded for him that trade is a win in a heartbeat

    ALEX.PETROVIC 3.69 – mostly 2nd pair 2 years ago, 3rd pair this year. Results vs Elites are a concern along with foot speed. Don’t like him as much as I used to.

    DAVID.SAVARD 3.61 – mostly results from 2 years ago. All 2nd pair. If cheap to acquire I’d be tempted, but not sold. 3 more years at $4.25

    ANTON.STRALMAN 3.59 – some 1st and 2nd. Solid all around

    ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.56 – He’d be higher on the list if Bouwmeester stayed hurt

    JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.13 – This is all 2 years ago diving this. Too old, contract too long and too much so Chiarelli will probably trade for him.

    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.76 – 1st pair killer

    BEN.LOVEJOY 2.75 – mostly 3rd pair on bad team. Skating is poor. Looks done.

    MATT.NISKANEN 2.67 – another 1st pair killer.

    CONNOR.CARRICK 2.23 – all 3rd pair. Who knows what he’ll be

    TROY.STECHER 2.13 – lots of 2nd pair. Good vs. Elite. Quietly becoming a quality Dman.

    ERIK.KARLSSON 1.83 – Hurt this year which hurt his results. The cost to acquire and salary makes this is high wire act. I’d shy away.

    MARK.PYSYK 1.70 – I wanted him since he was a Sabre. 2nd pair. Very good vs Elite. Perfect fit.

    JASON.DEMERS 1.36 – 1st pair this year, 2nd last year. Russell being here and not Demers is a crime. Perfect fit on 2RD imo. Chiarelli should have been in on him when FLA shopped him with $1MM retained for a 3rd liner. Mostly 1st this year with OEL. OEL was much better with him than with Hjarmlasson or Goligoski

    TYSON.BARRIE 1.16 – Mostly 2nd, some 1st pair. Up and down season this year. Not good vs. Elites, but played a lot with Nemeth who is a marginal NHLer, let alone top 4. I still like him.

    COLIN.MILLER 0.52 – 3rd pair. Most of this is 2 years ago, not as good of a year this year.

    P.K..SUBBAN 0.45 – much better results this year, even having to play with Emelin in a top 4 role a lot.

    JACOB.TROUBA 0.34 – Heavy 1st pair % this year. Very good player

    Honarable Mention:

    STEPHEN.JOHNS -1.06 – Slightly negative in RelTGF% over last 2 years but positive RelTCF%. Was positive RelTGF% this year. With Honka coming on Johns might shake loose and I think he’d be worth a flier. Is RFA without a contract right now.

    Note: I then added:

    STEPHEN.JOHNS -1.06 – Slightly negative in RelTGF% over last 2 years but positive RelTCF%. Was positive RelTGF% this year. With Honka coming on Johns might shake loose and I think he’d be worth a flier. Is RFA without a contract right now.

    The fact that Hitch ran Pateryn w/ Hamihuis and they got more TOI vs Elite than Klingberg-Lindell makes me more wary of Johns.

    If Hitch picks Pateryn over Johns then maybe its best to stay away from Johns.

    Speaking of low cost UFA’:

    Pateryn made $700K last year and saw more TOI vs Elites than Klingberg.

    Didn’t do well, but didn’t get killed either.

    Sliding him into a 2RD role short term and down to 3rd if Benning earns 2RD for under $1M/yr is probably good business.

  63. Bryan says:

    Bos8:
    The question is “who built the minor league pipeline?”.Between the Harvard graduate and the GED high school graduates, I tend to go with the former.

    He got here, the system was barren.

    But hey, he’s got the title, Let’s pile on.

    It’s definitely not an easy job with a dozen or more in house second guessers to deal with as well as countless armchair experts critiquing every move when they only have a portion of the information. A GM needs to have advisors to discuss decisions with but he also needs to have the autonomy to execute what he thinks will be the best moves for the club. If the owner or upper management don’t trust him to do this then they need another GM that they will have faith in. It’s very rare for a team with a meddling hierarchy to have any measure of success.

  64. Bryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I agree though. Loyalty is a good reason to make a bad decision.

    *Stan Bowman and Bob Murray nod so hard in agreement that they each get a concussion*

    The difference with them is their loyalty or whatever it was that guided them crippled their teams.

  65. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great list…

    Other than the untouchables (ie: OMG you traded that for him)… I liked these names

    JOSH.MANSON (bordering untouchable)
    DOUGIE.HAMILTON
    BRANDON.MONTOUR
    CHRIS.TANEV
    CODY.FRANSON
    RADKO.GUDAS
    RYAN.ELLIS (bordering untouchable)
    MARK.PYSYK
    JASON.DEMERS
    TYSON.BARRIE

  66. Confused says:

    Broncos win in OT, Skinner with 36 saves.

    So Cam, Mikko, Al, Stu… anyone got any good ideas on another two prospects to fill the roster?

  67. Bos8 says:

    Bryan,

    Sather was arrogant and not that bright but he was bright enough to surround himself with smart people. MacGregor and Muckler. This crowd not so much.

  68. digger50 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great list…

    Other than the untouchables (ie: OMG you traded that for him)… I liked these names

    JOSH.MANSON (bordering untouchable)
    DOUGIE.HAMILTON
    BRANDON.MONTOUR
    CHRIS.TANEV
    CODY.FRANSON
    RADKO.GUDAS
    RYAN.ELLIS (bordering untouchable)
    MARK.PYSYK
    JASON.DEMERS
    TYSON.BARRIE

    Yes, good list, thanks WG.

    Contrast these possable players, salary and risk with:

    Sergachev
    McAvoy
    Chychrun

    9-16 picks and arrived 1 year after the draft.

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great list…

    Other than the untouchables (ie: OMG you traded that for him)… I liked these names

    JOSH.MANSON (bordering untouchable)
    DOUGIE.HAMILTON
    BRANDON.MONTOUR
    CHRIS.TANEV
    CODY.FRANSON
    RADKO.GUDAS
    RYAN.ELLIS (bordering untouchable)
    MARK.PYSYK
    JASON.DEMERS
    TYSON.BARRIE

    Thanks

    I think Franson is done.

    I think Ellis is untouchable.

    They traded Jones instead of him when they needed a C.

  70. godot10 says:

    Bryan: It’s definitely not an easy job with a dozen or more in house second guessers to deal with as well as countless armchair experts critiquing every move when they only have a portion of the information.A GM needs to have advisors to discuss decisions with but he also needs to have the autonomy to execute what he thinks will be the best moves for the club.If the owner or upper management don’t trust him to do this then they need another GM that they will have faith in.It’s very rare for a team with a meddling hierarchy to have any measure of success.

    There is a difference between freelancing and autonomy.

    If I am an owner, I would expect my GM to present an operating plan. And he would be free to operate within his plan. But if he wants to do something outside of his plan, he would have to present a new plan to me first.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    They need to sign Vesel in my opinion.

    I think Skinner may be headed back to junior next year even though he’d be AHL eligible. I assume his contract would still be subject to slide (if he’s signed before) – is that right?

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: He has two more years I believe on a contract. Negotiations can be made but it sounds like a next summer thing.

    I believe all the SHL contracts have an “NHL out clause” and I think the plan is for him to come over to North America for the 2019/20 season.

    I’m sure an ELC will be worked out in due course.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    wheatnoil:
    If we’re looking at likely expansion draft in 2020 with the same rules, likely whoever you trade the pick for would not be expansion exempt where as the #9 would be safe. Might be an additional factor in keeping the pick, though I’m not sure Chiarelli has the luxury to look that far ahead.

    It should (and needs to be) a HUGE factor – I’m not so sure our current management team is in agreement though.

  74. trencan says:

    Confused:
    Broncos win in OT, Skinner with 36 saves.

    So Cam, Mikko, Al, Stu… anyone got any good ideas on another two prospects to fill the roster?

    I would draft this year for Jakub Skarek.

  75. Craig Zonit says:

    Lowetide: Mr. Chiarelli is aggressive on draft weekend, and I don’t think changing to decaf will help.

    Gold, Jerry, gold.

    My pick would be Smith. If Boqvist is available at 9 you run not walk to the podium.

  76. Confused says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really like your thoughts at the end of the post.

    How about two cheap options

    1. Persson, Vaxjo, SHL, currently ripping them up. Swedishposter thinks he might need a year. 23 Offensive RHD.

    2. Pateryn, UFA, 1+M

    Let. Persson, Pateryn, Benning, Russell battle it out in September

    Persson could be loaned back to Vaxjo if he loses.

    Moving forward, one to two years, move Russell when possible, Pateryn becomes the vet in the Bake.

    RHD, Larsson, Benning, Persson, Bear, Berglund, Mantha, 20180R1

  77. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks

    I think Franson is done.

    I think Ellis is untouchable.

    They traded Jones instead of him when they needed a C.

    To be fair, they would get more for Jones than Ellis. Ellis doesn’t get Johanssen. Keep the top pairing of Josi and Weber/Subban together, bolster it with the rest, and they are (not just their jerseys) golden if they manage to finally get their Top 1C.

  78. unca miltie says:

    Got home from the land of Bill Hajt. (They took the sign down). Just read the Sportsnet story on Humboldt and the tears started flowing all over. Thinking of those families.

  79. Cassandra says:

    Bos8:
    The question is “who built the minor league pipeline?”.Between the Harvard graduate and the GED high school graduates, I tend to go with the former.

    He got here, the system was barren.

    But hey, he’s got the title, Let’s pile on.

    You do know that the Oilers have one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league. It is strange that you would try and make this into a positive point for Chiarelli.

    We’ve been over this before. Chiarelli inherited one of the best starting positions in the history of the NHL.

    Three years later, the team is out of the playoffs, maxed out at the cap, and one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league.

    It is unambiguous that the team is in a worse position than when Chiarelli was hired. That he has managed to do so much damage in only three years is incredible.

  80. --hudson-- says:

    More on the Koskinen rumour from Finland:
    https://m.iltalehti.fi/nhl/201804222200895350_nh.shtml

  81. Rondo says:

    Lowetide: Always a bad idea to make decisions on small sample sizes.

    Big ice surface, nominal competition so far. You would think a fast skater on the first line would be better.
    For me Dobson> Smith

  82. Confused says:

    –hudson–,

    Google really struggling, but sounded pretty sure.

    Also seemed to imply Iiro is gone.

  83. Andy Dufresne says:

    Days prior to the 2015 draft

    “The Flames may already have their Kane and Toews in the form of Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett who were taken in with the 6th and 4th overall picks in the past two drafts. They’ve also uncovered gems late in the draft by grabbing Johnny Gaudreau and T.J. Brodie in the fourth round, but need to fill out the rest of the lineup with strong role players before they can become a contender in the strong Western Conference.”

    “With three second round picks and two more picks in the third round, the Flames have a chance to make this a very deep team in the next few years if they can land a top six forward and a top four defenceman outside the first round of this year’s draft.”

    Calgary results from the DEEP 2015 draft

    Rasmus Andersson
    Oliver Kylington
    Pavel Karnaukhov
    Andrew Mangiapane
    Riley Bruce

    These guys have played a total of 22 NHL games.

    We are all Prospect Junkies. (I include myself…WE)

  84. Andy Dufresne says:

    Heres my 2015 Oilers Redraft

    1) Conner McDavid

    Thats it. Drafts over. We Win.

    just kidding (not really)

    2) Cam Talbot

    3) Ethan Bear

    4) Caleb Jones

    5) another guy

    6) another guy

    7) who cares

  85. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra: You do know that the Oilers have one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league.It is strange that you would try and make this into a positive point for Chiarelli.

    We’ve been over this before.Chiarelli inherited one of the best starting positions in the history of the NHL.

    Three years later, the team is out of the playoffs, maxed out at the cap, and one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league.

    It is unambiguous that the team is in a worse position than when Chiarelli was hired.That he has managed to do so much damage in only three years is incredible.

    We have one of the worst prospect pipelines, and yet people lose their minds every time it’s suggested we trade any.

    “Our prospects suck, but don’t trade any, because how dumb would we look if even one of them played 300 NHL games?”

    The question should be, “if we draft X, then can we develop him into a useful player?”

    If the answer is aanything other than “Yes”, then it doesn’t matter who you draft, and you might as well trade the pick.

    Hence, maybe the Reinhardt trade protected us from flushing another two good young players down the sewer.

  86. Andy Dufresne says:

    wheatnoil:
    If we’re looking at likely expansion draft in 2020 with the same rules, likely whoever you trade the pick for would not be expansion exempt where as the #9 would be safe. Might be an additional factor in keeping the pick, though I’m not sure Chiarelli has the luxury to look that far ahead.

    IMO you are correct. “It might be an additional factor in keeping the pick”

    But I think a more accurate statement is ” It is a factor that makes the pick more valuable to whoever ends up making the pick”

  87. Andy Dufresne says:

    vesci: It is precisely because Chia doesn’t have the option to be patient that I would not have brought him back. I think he is starting from a position of limited options and some level of desperation. This combined with what appears to be his natural tendency to be impatient and devalue draft picks makes me very nervous that following this summer the Oilers will be in a worse place and not a better one long term.

    I get your point. Your sentiment is shared by a lot of people. And I would agree that the situation that Chiarelli finds himself in does not lend itself to standing pat or tinkering at the edges this summmer. I think it would be more accurate to qualify that fact with the fact that he is a professional and that he definitley plans to be here beyond 2018. So of course hes concerned for the longer term (2 to 3 years) and will conduct himself accordingly. I think both of these facts are good things. We want a sense of urgency and an eye toward the future. The two things are not mutually exclusive.

  88. --hudson-- says:

    Confused:
    –hudson–,

    Google really struggling, but sounded pretty sure.

    Also seemed to imply Iiro is gone.

    Yeah I noticed that as well. I assume it means his contract is expired, it’ll be months before we know the plans for Pakarinen. I would hope they move on, in the words of MacTavish you need guys that have a hope of scoring occasionally in the bottom 6, despite his PK abilities.

  89. Bos8 says:

    Cassandra,

    I do know that you come with an agenda. All wrapped up in spite and venom.

    Condescend much?

    Objective is something you stumble on, perspective you lack.

    What’s to discuss?

  90. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: You do know that the Oilers have one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league.It is strange that you would try and make this into a positive point for Chiarelli.

    We’ve been over this before.Chiarelli inherited one of the best starting positions in the history of the NHL.

    Three years later, the team is out of the playoffs, maxed out at the cap, and one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league.

    It is unambiguous that the team is in a worse position than when Chiarelli was hired.That he has managed to do so much damage in only three years is incredible.

    The actual picks made are mostly solid, 2017’s forwards trending well and some nice defensemen plus Skinner. Early days, nothing they can count on outside the first round. My main issue with PC’s procurement is that he has traded too many picks imo.

  91. who says:

    Jethro Tull: We have one of the worst prospect pipelines, and yet people lose their minds every time it’s suggested we trade any.

    “Our prospects suck, but don’t trade any, because how dumb would we look if even one of them played 300 NHL games?”

    The question should be, “if we draft X, then can we develop him into a useful player?”

    If the answer is aanything other than “Yes”, then it doesn’t matter who you draft, and you might as well trade the pick.

    Hence, maybe the Reinhardt trade protected us from flushing another two good young players down the sewer.

    That’s your position? It’s a good thing we traded Reinhart because we would have screwed up the 2 picks anyway?
    Go back to the 2015 draft from picks 16 through 35. How many misses do you see? 2 or 3 maybe?
    It seems pretty reasonable to suggest we would have 2 young, cheap players pushing for an NHL job this fall. Or already established.
    So are you saying they should trade 9OV because they will screw that up too? Interesting thought process. But kind of pessimistic.

  92. who says:

    Lowetide: The actual picks made are mostly solid, 2017’s forwards trending well and some nice defensemen plus Skinner. Early days, nothing they can count on outside the first round. My main issue with PC’s procurement is that he has traded too many picks imo.

    Exactly!

  93. Glass says:

    Who is more of a comparable for Chychrun? Dobson or Bouchard?

    Bouchard’s only knock is his skating. But he plays like 30min night in and night out, so is likely conserving energy. And who’s to say he can’t improve in this area like Draisaitl has?

    Dobson is very well rounded like Chychrun. Dobson with a little more offense, but probably not by a large margin due to difference in the leagues. Don’t care enough to dive into the strength of their teams in their draft years.

    Chychrun draft year OHL: 62GP, 11G, 38A, 49TP
    Dobson draft year QMJHL: 67GP, 17G,52A,69TP

    I’d be happy with either of the above guys so far as RD goes (Boqvist will not be available lol).

  94. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks

    I think Franson is done.

    I think Ellis is untouchable.

    They traded Jones instead of him when they needed a C.

    From and Jonathan Willis article at The Athletic:

    “there’s a good case that the Oilers could use at least one defenceman better than their current group on the man advantage. Going out and acquiring P.K. Subban or Roman Josi is extremely difficult, but there are cheaper options who can replicate much of their power play skillset for a fraction of the price.

    Take my favourite scrap pile defenceman, Cody Franson, whose power play numbers since the last lockout compare pretty favourably to the Nashville group.”

  95. Cassandra says:

    Bos8:
    Cassandra,

    I do know that you come with an agenda.All wrapped up in spite and venom.

    Condescend much?

    Objective is something you stumble on, perspective you lack.

    What’s to discuss?

    Between us, probably little. I even deleted the condescending part.

    We have little to discuss because your arguments are dishonest.

  96. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: The actual picks made are mostly solid, 2017’s forwards trending well and some nice defensemen plus Skinner. Early days, nothing they can count on outside the first round. My main issue with PC’s procurement is that he has traded too many picks imo.

    Right. And the end result is a prospect group that is below average, at best.

  97. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: You do know that the Oilers have one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league.It is strange that you would try and make this into a positive point for Chiarelli.

    We’ve been over this before.Chiarelli inherited one of the best starting positions in the history of the NHL.

    Three years later, the team is out of the playoffs, maxed out at the cap, and one of the worst prospect lists in the entire league.

    It is unambiguous that the team is in a worse position than when Chiarelli was hired.That he has managed to do so much damage in only three years is incredible.

    You can hang a lot of things on Chia, but the prospect pipeline ain’t one of them. Of course, no one could ever convince you otherwise. Weird how entrenched people get in their opinions.

  98. jm363561 says:

    trencan:
    Anton Lander just won Gagarin Cup in KHL. He played as 1C, good for him…

    The Anton Lander Appreciation Society is ecstatic. The Oilers PK says hi.

  99. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jm363561: The Anton Lander Appreciation Society is ecstatic. The Oilers PK says hi.

    – I always liked Anton too. He’s an example of guy though I thought was given a more than fair evaulation: he was on the Oil for various times over 6 seasons!: grand total of 10 goal, virtally all of them in thast short season I believe! In his last 2 years, he played 83 games and 7 points: not an NHL player, and we made way sure before coming to that conclusion: how many at bats can you give someone?

  100. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: Right.And the end result is a prospect group that is below average, at best.

    Meh. You can’t make up for the past, when PC got here the last truly good draft was 2011. The 2014 draft was astounding in its dumbidity.

    If you begin in 2015, and account for the graduating first rounders and the lack of second and third round picks, this group is doing well. PC’s adding of men like Matt Benning and possibly this Marody fellow are also positives.

    Finally, I am all for not giving credit to PC for McDavid, but 97 was part of the draft haul. Not counting McDavid, while giving full credit to other teams for their first-round picks who are still developing into NHL players, is not a fair and honest argument.

  101. Woogie63 says:

    who: Just for shits and giggles imagine this team minus Chia’s worst 2 moves, the Reinhart trade and the Lucic signing. Then use LT’s mock draft to fill in.
    We would have the same roster we have now plus Erikson Ek and Dermotminus Lucic. And 6 more million in cap space.
    How would everyone feel about that team going into the summer?

    Is that the team we had for 10 years before PC?

  102. Alpine says:

    I think you can make a case the Oilers prospect is league average, not below. I don’t think it’s above average. Thing is if you do a below average job with trading/FA then you need an above average prospect pool to even come close to balancing the scales.

  103. VOR says:

    I am struggling to figure out how to present my most important draft discovery. Which is all about cardioid parabolic functions in n-dimensional space. The problem is that what I have discovered is systematic distortions in the parabolic space that appear to have predictive value.

    It has been known since the 1800s that the continuous translational and rotational trans- formation groups (expressed in the Cartesian form) constitute the totality of the possible real movements, without distortion, in a parabolic space defined by the variables w, x, y, z; and the quaternion operations do actually reproduce such transformation groups, are therefore competent to interpret the geometry of a parabolic space of four dimensions. But do quaternion additions and multiplications suffice to produce all the movements (without distortion) of such a space ?

    This is still in debate. And nobody has offered a widely excepted proof that the distortions can be explained by subtractions, additions, divisions, and multiplications. Thus, it may not be possible to add new operations to the function in a way that produces the rotational and translational transformation groups that “create” the shape.

    But if I go on in this technical language I will being doing a far worse job of communicating than Mr. Bear.

    In English, if you were to graph on a Cartesian grid everything we know about the likely risk and likely reward of each player in this year’s draft and then add a third axis, a third dimension if you like of actual draft number the resulting graph will begin to reveal a pattern. That pattern can theoretically be expressed as a function. In this case a parabolic function.

    That it is a parabolic function shouldn’t surprise us – the monotonically declining function of the draft value of players in expected games versus draft order as proposed by Schuckers and others is a parabolic function. Since the people doing the drafting understand this function, intuitively, theoretically, and pragmatically then all graph functions in any number of dimensions will be shaped by their knowledge of the value curve.

    As you add time dimensions to a risk reward model of the NHL draft the resulting shape becomes more and more specifically Cardioid. It looks like a heart when we consider year drafted, age at draft, and time to first NHL game as well as risk, reward, and draft position. But it has distortions – places the heart bulges or shrinks. In these distortions we find the big draft busts and the late round super value players.

    The questions are:

    1. how do I present this data in a way the rest of you can play with, argue about, think about, and add to or subtract from? Because as one of my favourite profs, Chris Cheeseman said, “if you can’t clearly communicate what you found so people can understand it you have discovered nothing!”

    2. Can we reduce that shape to a formula that can predict the draft? That is can we figure out how to include the distortions?

    This is my way of saying I sympathize a bit with Mr. Bear – he whines on about how most people can’t think in multi-dimensional space and he isn’t wrong.

    He also is too fond of pointing out that the statistical tool we mostly use in hockey metrics is linear regression and that functions in the real world are usually non-linear. But he isn’t wrong.

    I find myself utterly unable to figure out how to explain n-dimensional non-linear functions to an audience that is far more comfortable with straight lines plotted on a Cartesian plane with an X and a Y axis.

    That isn’t a criticism of the audience but of the author. It is my responsibility as the proponent of a new idea to provide compelling proof in a format that is easy to understand.

    If any of you have ideas for presenting translational, rotational multi-dimensional images online I would love to hear them.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Confused:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Really like your thoughts at the end of the post.

    How about two cheap options

    1. Persson, Vaxjo, SHL, currently ripping them up. Swedishposter thinks he might need a year. 23 Offensive RHD.

    2. Pateryn, UFA, 1+M

    Let. Persson, Pateryn, Benning, Russell battle it out in September

    Persson could be loaned back to Vaxjo if he loses.

    Moving forward, one to two years, move Russell when possible, Pateryn becomes the vet in the Bake.

    RHD, Larsson, Benning, Persson, Bear, Berglund, Mantha, 20180R1

    In a summer where a big move is probably wrong, I think something like this is the way to go

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: To be fair, they would get more for Jones than Ellis. Ellis doesn’t get Johanssen. Keep the top pairing of Josi and Weber/Subban together, bolster it with the rest, and they are (not just their jerseys) golden if they manage to finally get their Top 1C.

    I’m not sure that’s true (getting more for Jones than Ellis)

    Also, there is no RHD on the roster to replace Ellis or even close so there is no reason for NSH to move him.

  106. Cassandra says:

    Corey Pronman’s latest prospect ranking listed 50 players, plus 19 honourable mentions, plus 9 recently graduated to the NHL who were ineligible. Of these 78 players, only one was an Oiler.

    Calling the Oiler prospect pool below average is generous.

    The point about McDavid is fair, I suppose. However, the first round of the 2015 draft has already mostly moved through the prospect lists.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: From and Jonathan Willis article at The Athletic:

    “there’s a good case that the Oilers could use at least one defenceman better than their current group on the man advantage. Going out and acquiring P.K. Subban or Roman Josi is extremely difficult, but there are cheaper options who can replicate much of their power play skillset for a fraction of the price.

    Take my favourite scrap pile defenceman, Cody Franson, whose power play numbers since the last lockout compare pretty favourably to the Nashville group.”

    Jon and I disagree.

    Quenville wouldn’t play him in CHI and I don’t think he’s a dumb coach.

    I don’t think a RHD is key to EDM’s PP.

    I would help, but playing Drai on the bumper and running a 1-3-1 is more important than who is on the blue line imo.

    They were one of the best with both Klefbom and Sekera, both who are both still on the roster.

  108. Cassandra says:

    For instance Calgary had no first round pick in the McDavid draft (traded for Hamilton) and still had 5 players mentioned by Pronman.

  109. Glass says:

    People can say we have a below average prospect pool. Sure. But I think you can make an argument that we have a very strong young core under 25.

    McDavid, Draisaitl, Strome, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Klefbomb, Nurse.

    That’s a pretty strong top 6 when JP and Yamamoto become productive wingers. On D we could use that fast puck moving RD, I wouldn’t put all my eggs in the Bear basket but there is a player there. Then a pure goal scoring winger would round us out. You can then worry about depth pieces.

    So to summarize, we have a strong core, but could use a speedy puck moving RD who can QB the PP and a winger who can score bucket loads of goals.

  110. Bos8 says:

    Drafting Bear, Jones, Samorukov, Maximov and Safin in the later rounds speaks of quality scouting. Add to that Benning and Marody and that’s a quality talent pool.

    That’s a step ahead of the opposition.

    Next is a progressive coach at the AHL level.

  111. Bryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Jon and I disagree.

    Quenville wouldn’t play him in CHI and I don’t think he’s a dumb coach.

    I don’t think a RHD is key to EDM’s PP.

    I would help, but playing Drai on the bumper and running a 1-3-1 is more important than who is on the blue line imo.

    They were one of the best with both Klefbom and Sekera, both who are both still on the roster.

    I certainly agree with this. There is no reason they can’t have a top ten power play with the personnel already on the roster. Some fresh coaching ideas will fix a lot of issues.

  112. who says:

    Woogie63: Is that the team we had for 10 years before PC?

    I don’t understand the question.
    I just said it was our current roster plus Erikson Ek and Dermot minus Lucic. Plus 6 million in cap space. I don’t think I can make it any plainer.
    If you are arguing that I can’t just cherry pick his bad moves you have a point. Although I think his best moves have been at the draft table. His trades and free agent signings, not so much.
    What is Chia’s best trade?
    The 2nd and 3rd for Talbot? Solid trade but given Talbots past season maybe not a home run.
    4th for Maroon? We got 2 years of solid production from Maroon but he certainly wasn’t an impact player. At the end of the day he turned into Marody. We’ll see.
    Scrivens for Kassian? Solid trade, but again, not an impact player. Like Maroon, may be too expensive to keep.
    Eberle for Strome? Basically a salary dump. Strome is okay, but again, not an impact player.
    Hall for Larsson? Everyone seems to think he gave up too much. I think Larsson is a first pairing dman but Hall is a first line winger. I don’t think anyone thinks he won the trade.
    What’s Chia’s best free agent signing?
    Sekera? Solid top 4 guy. May have given him too much term
    Russell? Solid 4/5 guy. Again. Too much term.
    Lucic? BAD SIGNING
    Benning? Looks like a 3rd pairing guy to me
    Caggulia? Looks like a 4th liner to me.
    My point in listing all these transactions is to point out the folly of trying to build a team through trades and free agency. These avenues are probably best used to add depth and fill short term holes. Most of your impact players are going to be acquired through the draft.
    KEEP THE PICKS.

  113. Glass says:

    So what I’m saying is, to tag along to my above post, we have a strong core. We need two key pieces, and other than that we just have to worry about filling our roster with depth pieces.

    Strome is a fine 3C. No issues with him. League average 3C imo, nothing to particularly dislike, but nothing that set him apart imo. You’d think 4C’s won’t be too difficult to find.

    Khaira is a fine depth winger. Your mileage on Slepyshev, Pakarinen, Aberg, Caggiula, and Kassian may vary.

    Marody, Vesel, Rasanen, Benson and Safin could all be fine depth players. Wouldn’t surprise me if Maksimov gets a look in our top 6 in a couple years. I’m not saying all of those will, but certainly a couple could.

  114. flyfish1168 says:

    Cassandra:
    For instance Calgary had no first round pick in the McDavid draft (traded for Hamilton) and still had 5 players mentioned by Pronman.

    With all that supposed talent at the AHL level, they still didn’t make the playoffs.

  115. jm363561 says:

    Cassandra: Between us, probably little. I even deleted the condescending part.

    We have little to discuss because your arguments are dishonest.

    Cass baby, love your posts bro, just love those crisp, punchy, spot on observations and critiques man, just love them yo, always have. The Drai deal – you and me Cass, we’re like brothers in arms man, just brothers in arms. But Cass, ya really gotta dial down on the whole confrontational, patronisation thing ya got going man, I mean really dial down real, real deep. This is Planet LoweTide man, where we all like to lay back, hang loose, breathe easy and just shoot a cool bit of crap with our host yo. All ya gotta do Cass is share those cool, dark insights of yours man with love and brotherly positivity and we’ll all love ya man, and I mean really luuuurrrve ya. Cass, these are dark times man and we need you on our icloud as a brother. Can ya not just dial it down a few notches man? Hope this ain’t asking too much bro.

  116. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    Corey Pronman’s latest prospect ranking listed 50 players, plus 19 honourable mentions, plus 9 recently graduated to the NHL who were ineligible.Of these 78 players, only one was an Oiler.

    Calling the Oiler prospect pool below average is generous.

    The point about McDavid is fair, I suppose.However, the first round of the 2015 draft has already mostly moved through the prospect lists.

    Nice appeal to authority, here.

    Classic Cassandra.

  117. Side says:

    Cassandra:

    We have little to discuss because your arguments are dishonest.

    LOL!

  118. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Glass,

    – The whole ranking of an organizations “prospects” is a challenge

    – The Oil’s best “propsects” McD, Pool and Drai all play in the NHL, partly becasue of where they were drafted, partly becasue of holes in the org.

    – A team like Philly, who never really sucked, they have more propsects drafted in the mid-1st round, and a better team, so their prospects tend to sit more in the minors.

    – Drafting really high means player is in league early, on a bad team: no longer a magic bean

    – Pittsburgh has a poor prospect pool, because they are in win now and trade prospects

    – You cant argue that compared to 3 years ago, we have a lot more players in the system non-NHL that might make it: the rest is just semantics, opinions, and circumstances

  119. jm363561 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Fair enough but look at the +/-, the zone starts, his line mates and the PK results. One of many players that thrived under Todd Nelson.

  120. Bling says:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/05/in-praise-of-fair-weather-fandom/556841/

    Apropos of being an Oilers fan.

    This article serves an important reminder that we should appreciate, celebrate and cheer on the elite talents and ownership/management groups who care about winning.

    Meanwhile, in Edmonton, having already done it with two o’s and three u’s, I am looking forward to yet another off-season in which Chiarelli shows us a new spelling of the word stupid.

  121. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jm363561:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Fair enough but look at the +/-, the zone starts, his line mates and the PK results. One of many players that thrived under Todd Nelson.

    – Yup, that was certainly a high point for him, and it looked like he turned a corner. But in the 6 other seasons (and what 5 other coaches!), they couldn’t find a role for him to get it done

    – I really did like him: but you can’t put up 2 goals and 7 points in 2 seasons when you are on your 6th season trying to make it. He was a little slow, nor was he terribly physical, or a “prick” (and had such bad luck/bad hands). He was well respected, as was a pro, and played hard when he got demotd to the AHL

    – On a better team, in better cirmstances he probably stood a better chance of making it.

  122. Bos8 says:

    I think Nelson is one of the top coaches, non-NHL division.

  123. Bos8 says:

    Meanwhile, in Edmonton, having already done it with two o’s and three u’s, I am looking forward to yet another off-season in which Chiarelli shows us a new spelling of the word stupid.

    A hockey player at Harvard who graduated with an Economics degree is a long way from stupid.

    I mean, what are the odds?

  124. Andy Dufresne says:

    Think we got hosed on the Lucic signing. (yes we did)

    Mastermind GM Dean Lombardi traded the 2015 13th overall first round pick and Goaltender Martin Jones and defenceman Colin Miller to the Bruins for Milan Lucic.

    The Bruins quickly flipped Jones to the Sharks for their first-round draft pick in 2016 and unsigned prospect Sean Kuraly.

    People used to talk about Lombardi like he was a god. I guess even gods have their bad days.

  125. Munny says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think that measure is especially helpful, so can’t really comment on it. I stand by my original wording.

    It looks to me like he wasn’t asking you to comment on the measure he raised, but rather to clarify what measure you used since the example he gave obviously wasn’t it. I too am curious about the measure behind your wording, so we are all on the same page.

  126. Andy Dufresne says:

    Side: LOL!

    ^ haha RIGHT?!

  127. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Just a general question for the group : what do you think this team should do next year?

    – Would getting to the 2nd round again be deemed a succes?

    – Getting to the Semis? Besides Nashville and based on the Peg seemingly getting it together: what teams are going to be clearly better than us?

    – Vegas is what next year?: SJS old, Anaheim Old, LA changing, Chicago one last kick at can, Colorado might be emerging, Minny whatever. Calgary should be better, Vancouver non, StL never seems to get it right, Dallas: who knows

    – I don’t think its a leap of faith to believe we can be one of the best teams in the West next year

  128. Munny says:

    VOR,

    I thought you did a pretty good job of explaining it here, but it’s all kind of pointless unless you can answer question 2. Otherwise all we have is a rearview mirror, no? And I have no idea how it is possible to identify those distortions beforehand. We’re dealing with humans and a gazillion variables.

  129. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bos8:
    I think Nelson is one of the top coaches, non-NHL division.

    – I think Nelson and Coach actually got along. There just wasn’t a spot for him at the time: Coach was bringing in his crew, it made sense for Nelson to go elsehwere

    – Fast forward to today: Nelson did a lot but he’s blocked in Detroit(a team that is no longer the sexy team to poach coaches from).

    – If Coach and Nelson could agree; he’d be a great add to the staff now and if Nelson is smart: he’s 20 games away from being the HC if stumble…

  130. rickithebear says:

    Let’s trade for provorov and Gostisbere
    As bostonians say
    “They have wicked offensive skills”

  131. VOR says:

    Munny:
    VOR,

    I thought you did a pretty good job of explaining it here, but it’s all kind of pointless unless you can answer question 2.Otherwise all we haveis a rearview mirror, no?And I have no idea how it is possible to identify those distortions beforehand.We’re dealing with humans and a gazillion variables.

    I think what I am seeing is consistent failures to properly assign risk and reward values to prospects particularly if they are unusually young or unusually old as compared to other draft eligible players. There are also distortions in regards to development curves. NHL teams seem determined to not factor development times into their draft strategies. Additionally, they aren’t cautious enough in the first round and far too cautious there after.

    Consider my current project, Roland McKeown. He was drafted far too high for a player that was clearly a slow learner. At every stage of his development, at each level, he has eventually become a dominant player. But it takes him longer than other players to get to the same place. He should have been dinged for this.

    Oddly having not been he is now being punished because the assumption, probably correct, is that it may take him two to three years of playing as a 7/8, 5/6 with some top 4 minutes before he is a fully functional NHL player. And Carolina can’t afford that so he is stuck in Charlotte. But when he figures it out, because of his fitness, skating, and efficiency he might well have a 500-700 game career as an outstanding NHL defenceman. Had Carolina taken a high risk, high reward scorer at this slot and McKeown in the third or fourth round they would have been much better off.

    They relied, I think, far too heavily on the idea that great skating D are more likely to have NHL careers than little, high scoring forwards.

    They aren’t alone.

    Can we build a function that places a player like McKeown more accurately? I think we can. But your right, if I can’t increase draft success then it is merely an interesting curiosity.

  132. WayneKenov says:

    VOR:
    I am struggling to figure out how to present my most important draft discovery. Which is all about cardioid parabolic functions in n-dimensional space. The problem is that what I have discovered is systematic distortions in the parabolic space that appear to have predictive value.

    It has been known since the 1800s that the continuous translational and rotational trans- formation groups (expressed in the Cartesian form) constitute the totality of the possible real movements, without distortion, in a parabolic space defined by the variables w, x, y, z; and the quaternion operations do actually reproduce such transformation groups, are therefore competent to interpret the geometry of a parabolic space of four dimensions. But do quaternion additions and multiplications suffice to produce all the movements (without distortion) of such a space ?

    This is still in debate. And nobody has offered a widely excepted proof that the distortions can be explained by subtractions, additions, divisions, and multiplications. Thus, it may not be possible to add new operations to the function in a way that produces the rotational and translational transformation groups that “create” the shape.

    But if I go on in this technical language I will being doing a far worse job of communicating than Mr. Bear.

    In English, if you were to graph on a Cartesian grid everything we know about the likely risk and likely reward of each player in this year’s draft and then add a third axis, a third dimension if you like of actual draft number the resulting graph will begin to reveal a pattern. That pattern can theoretically be expressed as a function. In this case a parabolic function.

    That it is a parabolic function shouldn’t surprise us – the monotonically declining function of the draft value of players in expected games versus draft order as proposed by Schuckers and others is a parabolic function. Since the people doing the drafting understand this function, intuitively, theoretically, and pragmatically then all graph functions in any number of dimensions will be shaped by their knowledge of the value curve.

    As you add time dimensions to a risk reward model of the NHL draft the resulting shape becomes more and more specifically Cardioid. It looks like a heart when we consider year drafted, age at draft, and time to first NHL game as well as risk, reward, and draft position. But it has distortions – places the heart bulges or shrinks. In these distortions we find the big draft busts and the late round super value players.

    The questions are:

    1. how do I present this data in a way the rest of you can play with, argue about, think about, and add to or subtract from? Because as one of my favourite profs, Chris Cheeseman said, “if you can’t clearly communicate what you found so people can understand it you have discovered nothing!”

    2. Can we reduce that shape to a formula that can predict the draft? That is can we figure out how to include the distortions?

    This is my way of saying I sympathize a bit with Mr. Bear – he whines on about how most people can’t think in multi-dimensional space and he isn’t wrong.

    He also is too fond of pointing out that the statistical tool we mostly use in hockey metrics is linear regression and that functions in the real world are usually non-linear. But he isn’t wrong.

    I find myself utterly unable to figure out how to explain n-dimensional non-linear functions to an audience that is far more comfortable with straight lines plotted on a Cartesian plane with an X and a Y axis.

    That isn’t a criticism of the audience but of the author. It is my responsibility as the proponent of a new idea to provide compelling proof in a format that is easy to understand.

    If any of you have ideas for presenting translational, rotational multi-dimensional images online I would love to hear them.

    Well, I can’t even understand Ricki when he says something trivial. I’ve faked my way through MVA, and other high order classes, but I don’t know if I can help here. What I’m hearing is you’ve fit a 4 (on rereading, maybe 7) dimension ellipsoid using draft order, time, age at draft, etc. My first thought is can you cluster the data to create regions that you could then slot players into? Instead of having one formula, you would simply assign a player to a cluster (based on the 4 things known at the draft), from which you could make predictions on the result measurement variables.

    Basically what I am thinking creating a range of comparables based on draft position, without using actual names. My knowledge of graphing software is piss poor though, and you would have one hell of a table to make assigning to a cluster possible without the graphing.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    Vor,

    Note: I’m way out of my depth.

    Is its the 3rd dimension that makes the parabola into a more cartioid shape?

    If so, if everyone agrees on the 1st and 2nd dimensions, then maybe just discuss the third one?

    Also,

    He also is too fond of pointing out that the statistical tool we mostly use in hockey metrics is linear regression and that functions in the real world are usually non-linear. But he isn’t wrong.

    The school of hockey analytics that has gone all in linear regression has lost the plot a bit I think.

    They seem to be more focused on mathematical purity rather than the original objective, which was describing hockey and finding the major predictable components therein.

    I think that side of the community has hit a wall and will continue to be at that wall until puck and player movement data is public.

    On the other hand, there are some “old school” hockey analytic types (like Dellow) who are breaking the game down into discrete sub-sections like “CF% after a OZ face off loss” and then examining teams compared to all others and then seeing what is going on using video.

    I find this a satisfying melding of analytics and “eyes” that is trying to achieve the goal of “what is going on out there and how can we predict things?”

  134. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: Meh. You can’t make up for the past, when PC got here the last truly good draft was 2011. The 2014 draft was astounding in its dumbidity.

    If you begin in 2015, and account for the graduating first rounders and the lack of second and third round picks, this group is doing well. PC’s adding of men like Matt Benning and possibly this Marody fellow are also positives.

    Finally, I am all for not giving credit to PC for McDavid, but 97 was part of the draft haul. Not counting McDavid, while giving full credit to other teams for their first-round picks who are still developing into NHL players, is not a fair and honest argument.

    A ….wise man once said to me

    “Meh. You can’t make up for the past, when PC got here the last truly good draft was 2011. The 2014 draft was astounding in its dumbidity.

    If you begin in 2015, and account for the graduating first rounders and the lack of second and third round picks, this group is doing well. PC’s adding of men like Matt Benning and possibly this Marody fellow are also positives.

    Finally, I am all for not giving credit to PC for McDavid, but 97 was part of the draft haul. Not counting McDavid, while giving full credit to other teams for their first-round picks who are still developing into NHL players, is not a fair and honest argument.”

    God Bless You.

  135. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Can you please become the GM of the Flames or the canucks. I want to see a top d pair of gryba and fistric. You can have all the box protection you want. You’ll need it cause you’ll spend the whole game there

  136. Confused says:

    VOR,

    t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding is a commonly used tool to transform nD spaces into 2D visualizations.

    Obviously, with dimensionality reductions no guarantee can be given about accuracy, but it is used in many large projects and has many followers.

    Also, consider teaching the group logistic regression, it helps many move on from linear thinking.

  137. Bos8 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think Nelson and Coach actually got along.There just wasn’t a spot for him at the time: Coach was bringing in his crew, it made sense for Nelson to go elsehwere

    – Fast forward to today: Nelson did a lot but he’s blocked in Detroit(a team that is no longer the sexy team to poach coaches from).

    – If Coach and Nelson could agree; he’d be a great add to the staff now and if Nelson is smart: he’s 20 games away from being the HC if stumble…

    Oh, totally agree. Mac basically has to reinvent himself this summer. Adapt or die.

    The whole team – everyone played with everyone. It was like a dysfunctional rep team.

    I’d hire Nelson as backup in place. Lay it out to both men. Twenty games, then we evaluate.

  138. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Calgary should not be better. Only reason they looked ok in first half of season was cause Mike Smith stood on his head, he got injured and didn’t play well after returning from injury. Story of his career. One of best goalies, gets injured, long periods of subpar play after injury followed by return to greatness. Rinse and repeat. Only problem is he’s 37 and injuries are piling up.
    But it was fun listening to people praise their GM 40 games into the season for his remarkable work.
    Giordano turns 35 this year. Brodie didn’t fit their system so he’s getting traded. Monahan has had like 6 surgeries this offseason already. Oh yeah and their top 2 picks are property of the Isles

  139. rickithebear says:

    Is abandoning the most critical def area in the game a +ve for prospects?

  140. Lowetide says:

    Munny: It looks to me like he wasn’t asking you to comment on the measure he raised, but rather to clarify what measure you used since the example he gave obviously wasn’t it.I too am curious about the measure behind your wording, so we are all on the same page.

    Let me rephrase. When I say “deepest draft in a dozen years” I’m not saying it as an introduction to a 60-page item, I’m saying it within the confines of our group. It’s short hand, like “pushing the river” represents a player who can go head to head with the best opposition and get results.

    Put another way, I purchased two books on baseball analytics as a young man.

    Pete Palmer’s Hidden Game of Baseball (1984)
    https://www.amazon.ca/Hidden-Game-Baseball-Pete-Thorn/dp/0385182848

    Bill James Baseball Abstract (first one I bought was 1985)

    In the former, which I could not get through, the analysis of baseball went so deep that I could not grasp it. It’s no sin to chase girls instead of reading Pete Palmer, and that’s what I did. Along came Bill James, who had the same knowledge but imparted it in easy, flowing sentences and fragments. I’d been watching baseball forever, and knew (for instance) that platoon advantage existed. James’ gift was that he could take those complicated things and make them sing.

    A man has to know his limitations. I am blessed to know mine. When I say “the Oilers best draft since 2011” I’m not using a slide rule. I will leave that to others. It benefits all of us. 🙂

  141. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Just a general question for the group : what do you think this team should do next year?

    – Would getting to the 2nd round again be deemed a succes?

    – Getting to the Semis?Besides Nashville and based on the Peg seemingly getting it together: what teams are going to be clearly better than us?

    – Vegas is what next year?: SJS old, Anaheim Old, LA changing, Chicago one last kick at can, Colorado might be emerging, Minny whatever.Calgary should be better, Vancouver non, StL never seems to get it right, Dallas: who knows

    – I don’t think its a leap of faith to believe we can be one of the best teams in the West next year

    With a good summer I think we win two rounds next year.

    Team that scares me most? Vegas. I think they may be revolutionizing (or evolutionizing) how hockey teams are built / play / and have success in the Parity / Cap Era.

    We can compete agianst the Jets and Preds who are built in the more traditional fashion….Balance of Size Speed Skill and Role players built from the backend out with skill down the middle (Im not saying beat them…but compete).

    But this Vegas thing is freaking me out. Its Balance Speed EveryReady Bunny and total commitment to systems play.

    These guys all have motors that dont stop and the hockey IQ to play thier system to near perfection. There is no one and done with these guys. On every play they process action one and turn immediatley to action two then three then four. Thier are no fly-bys, no fades, no drop passes at the blue line, no fake back checking where you get into position but dont actually do anything, lots of fast decison making and zero slow decision making. Few stupid penalites. etdc etc.
    (From Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid…”Who ARE these guys?!?!)

    They SHREDDED the Kings. (and Quick was good/great)

    They have me wondering if the best way to build a winner in a Parity Based League is to not pay for superstars and spread the wealth out over the entire team.

    Now of course they havent won anything yet……and we’ll have to see what the realities of having so many 20, 30 and 40 goal scores does to their cap situation….but man they are looking crazy good.

    On the bright side, We seemed to play well against them in the regular season and we were in the middle of an off year so…..we’ll see.

    But yes. With better goaltending, average health, a few bounce back performances, McDavid gets us firmly planted in the middle of the playoff race.

    But lets not kid ourselves, other teams are “McDaviding up”…(building knowing that one day they will have to defeat Conner) A Tavares to the Sharks move could be scary for us as well.

  142. meanashell11 says:

    Cassandra:
    Corey Pronman’s latest prospect ranking listed 50 players, plus 19 honourable mentions, plus 9 recently graduated to the NHL who were ineligible.Of these 78 players, only one was an Oiler.

    Calling the Oiler prospect pool below average is generous.

    The point about McDavid is fair, I suppose.However, the first round of the 2015 draft has already mostly moved through the prospect lists.

    I’m too lazy to check further and cheap to buy the subscription but a quick google shows that the following teams had no one on that list:

    Detroit
    NJ
    Pitt
    SJ
    Tampa
    Boston

    They are or were all in the playoffs???

    I believe this means what exactly Cassandra?

  143. rickithebear says:

    Bos8: Oh, totally agree.Mac basically has to reinvent himself this summer.Adapt or die.

    The whole team – everyone played with everyone.It was like a dysfunctional rep team.

    I’d hire Nelson as backup in place.Lay it out to both men.Twenty games, then we evaluate.

    Really! maybe not pressure the perimeter by abondoning the HD area.

    We had 5 top 40 HD men in 05-06

    Introduced An elite repeatable 1st comp HD dman Souray who questioned system was sent down.

    Introduced an elite repeatable 1st comp HD dman, Fayne who questioned the swarm, was sent down.

    PC signed elite 2nd comp HD dman Sekera, traded for top 5 HD dman Larsson, signed Elite 0% Corsi Dman Russell, Coach ran HD def sys. Made 2 Nd round. We win in 5gm against Ana if goal disallowed.

    This year coach runs dz perimeter press. Bat shit crazy!
    Runs a perimeter shot PP. Bat shit crazy,
    Unable to outscore GA.

    Re invent no.

    Go back to 16-17 HD sys. 1-1-2 pk, 1-3-1 PP

  144. meanashell11 says:

    VOR:
    I am struggling to figure out how to present my most important draft discovery. Which is all about cardioid parabolic functions in n-dimensional space. The problem is that what I have discovered is systematic distortions in the parabolic space that appear to have predictive value.

    It has been known since the 1800s that the continuous translational and rotational trans- formation groups (expressed in the Cartesian form) constitute the totality of the possible real movements, without distortion, in a parabolic space defined by the variables w, x, y, z; and the quaternion operations do actually reproduce such transformation groups, are therefore competent to interpret the geometry of a parabolic space of four dimensions. But do quaternion additions and multiplications suffice to produce all the movements (without distortion) of such a space ?

    This is still in debate. And nobody has offered a widely excepted proof that the distortions can be explained by subtractions, additions, divisions, and multiplications. Thus, it may not be possible to add new operations to the function in a way that produces the rotational and translational transformation groups that “create” the shape.

    But if I go on in this technical language I will being doing a far worse job of communicating than Mr. Bear.

    In English, if you were to graph on a Cartesian grid everything we know about the likely risk and likely reward of each player in this year’s draft and then add a third axis, a third dimension if you like of actual draft number the resulting graph will begin to reveal a pattern. That pattern can theoretically be expressed as a function. In this case a parabolic function.

    That it is a parabolic function shouldn’t surprise us – the monotonically declining function of the draft value of players in expected games versus draft order as proposed by Schuckers and others is a parabolic function. Since the people doing the drafting understand this function, intuitively, theoretically, and pragmatically then all graph functions in any number of dimensions will be shaped by their knowledge of the value curve.

    As you add time dimensions to a risk reward model of the NHL draft the resulting shape becomes more and more specifically Cardioid. It looks like a heart when we consider year drafted, age at draft, and time to first NHL game as well as risk, reward, and draft position. But it has distortions – places the heart bulges or shrinks. In these distortions we find the big draft busts and the late round super value players.

    The questions are:

    1. how do I present this data in a way the rest of you can play with, argue about, think about, and add to or subtract from? Because as one of my favourite profs, Chris Cheeseman said, “if you can’t clearly communicate what you found so people can understand it you have discovered nothing!”

    2. Can we reduce that shape to a formula that can predict the draft? That is can we figure out how to include the distortions?

    This is my way of saying I sympathize a bit with Mr. Bear – he whines on about how most people can’t think in multi-dimensional space and he isn’t wrong.

    He also is too fond of pointing out that the statistical tool we mostly use in hockey metrics is linear regression and that functions in the real world are usually non-linear. But he isn’t wrong.

    I find myself utterly unable to figure out how to explain n-dimensional non-linear functions to an audience that is far more comfortable with straight lines plotted on a Cartesian plane with an X and a Y axis.

    That isn’t a criticism of the audience but of the author. It is my responsibility as the proponent of a new idea to provide compelling proof in a format that is easy to understand.

    If any of you have ideas for presenting translational, rotational multi-dimensional images online I would love to hear them.

    I’m thinking Gaussian Copula!

  145. VOR says:

    WayneKenov: Well, I can’t even understand Ricki when he says something trivial. I’ve faked my way through MVA, and other high order classes, but I don’t know if I can help here. What I’m hearing is you’ve fit a 4 (on rereading, maybe 7) dimension ellipsoid using draft order, time, age at draft, etc. My first thought is can you cluster the data to create regions that you could then slot players into? Instead of having one formula, you would simply assign a player to a cluster (based on the 4 things known at the draft), from which you could make predictions on the result measurement variables.

    Basically what I am thinking creating a range of comparables based on draft position, without using actual names. My knowledge of graphing software is piss poor though, and you would have one hell of a table to make assigning to a cluster possible without the graphing.

    Great idea. I have no idea how to do it but it would probably produce something very useful.

  146. VOR says:

    Confused:
    VOR,

    t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding is a commonly used tool to transform nD spaces into 2D visualizations.

    Obviously, with dimensionality reductions no guarantee can be given about accuracy, but it is used in many large projects and has many followers.

    Also, consider teaching the group logistic regression, it helps many move on from linear thinking.

    Thanks for the advice. I use several software packages and they give interesting 2D visualizations of nD spaces but I find they aren’t adequate to this task. Maybe I need to upgrade.

    I love lassos. I actually use them quite a bit. I am thinking the following would be a good jumping off point to discuss group logistic regression.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5026200/

  147. VOR says:

    meanashell11: I’m thinking Gaussian Copula!

    Gaussian Copula is always the correct answer.

    Seriously, much as I love copulas and Gaussian Copulas in particular they do have their limitations.

    https://www.maths.ox.ac.uk/system/files/attachments/1000030.pdf

  148. --hudson-- says:

    VOR,

    If you’re an R user, you can animate plots with ImageMagick. Think that can be helpful for showing how your predictions work. This blog post was helpful:
    https://www.r-bloggers.com/animate-gif-images-in-r-imagemagick/

  149. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    No it’s not. Defensive ability is always a key part of a defenseman. But you need all 5 players to work together on the ice so you can’t play 3 v 5 in the other two zones because you need to protect the hd area. Defenseman need to skate take and make a pass and defend. Not just defend a small area in their own zone. The guys that do that always give up more than they generate because they generate nothing

  150. Confused says:

    VOR,

    Draft position is a nominal variable, age at draft and time to NHL are obviously correlated, etc

    So struggling to understand what you are trying to tell us.

  151. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    How do you play a 1-3-1 pp when you need 2 box protection d men standing in front of their own goalie the entire pp

  152. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR: Great idea. I have no idea how to do it but it would probably produce something very useful.

    The epitaph of many of humanity’s most heinous creations.

  153. --hudson-- says:

    Confused,

    Logistic regression is used mainly for binary classification though isn’t it?

    If you want to predict something such as draft ranking, expected games played, expected goals scored, etc. then you would use linear regression. (although if the data is non-linear then you need to either transform the data or try a different type of algorithm)

    I guess you could use logistic regression and use the probabilities to sort the predicted values in order, but that seems overly complicated.

  154. sliderule says:

    Jonathan Bergglend realy impressed me in swedes 2-1 win over USA.

    To my eyes terrific speed and skill.

    If he is there for oilers second round pick run to podium.

    wjc site show him at 5-11 and 180 and if true he should be gone in first round

  155. Confused says:

    VOR,

    Typically copulas assume a continuous and infinite distribution. Strange tails and bounds are problems.

    Cannot see how hockey data corresponds with traditional definitions.

    But may have misunderstood again.

  156. Confused says:

    –hudson–,

    Logistic regression is the basis for many data analysis techniques, many classification and clustering algorithms are now know to be variations.

    Linear regression needs at least ordinal variables and symmetry of errors etc.

  157. Bling says:

    Woodguy:

    Great post.

    Benning keeps looking good. I have yet to see a single metric that paints him in a less than favourable light. He is better at box protection than he gets credit for and I like the way he moves the puck.

    If I’m the Oilers, I bet on him, a return to form for the Klefbom/Larsson pairing, and Sekera getting back to 100%.

    Fix the wingers and back-up G!!!

  158. Harpers Hair says:

    Andy Dufresne: With a good summer I think we win two rounds next year.

    Team that scares me most? Vegas. I think they may be revolutionizing (or evolutionizing) how hockey teams are built / play / and have success in the Parity / Cap Era.

    We can compete agianst the Jets andPreds who are built in the more traditional fashion….Balance of Size Speed Skill and Role players built from the backend out with skill down the middle (Im not saying beat them…but compete).

    But this Vegas thing is freaking me out.Its Balance Speed EveryReady Bunny and total commitment to systems play.

    These guys all have motors that dont stop and the hockey IQ to play thier system to near perfection. There is no one and done with these guys. On every play they process action one and turn immediatley to action two then three then four.Thier are no fly-bys, no fades, no drop passes at the blue line, no fake back checking where you get into position but dont actually do anything, lots of fast decison making and zero slow decision making. Few stupid penalites. etdc etc.
    (From Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid…”Who ARE these guys?!?!)

    They SHREDDED the Kings. (and Quick was good/great)

    They have me wondering if the best way to build a winner in a Parity Based League is to not pay for superstars and spread the wealth out over the entire team.

    Now of course they havent won anything yet……and we’ll have to see what the realities of having so many 20, 30 and 40 goal scores does to their cap situation….but man they are looking crazy good.

    On the bright side, We seemed to play well against them in the regular season and we were in the middle of an off year so…..we’ll see.

    But yes.With better goaltending, average health, a few bounce back performances, McDavid gets us firmly planted in the middle of the playoff race.

    But lets not kid ourselves, other teams are “McDaviding up”…(building knowing that one day they will have to defeat Conner) A Tavares to the Sharks move could be scary for us as well.

    A dark horse for Tavares is Nashville. All they need do to make him fit is let Bonino walk. Their centre depth would be ridiculous.

  159. Confused says:

    Anyone watching the U-18, spotted any good prospects?

  160. --hudson-- says:

    Just looking at our last few goalies in Edmonton, last 3 years of sav% before coming to the Oilers

    Montoya: 0.919, 0.912, 0.863
    Gustavsson: 0.907, 0.911, 0.908
    Nilsson: 0.911, 0.896, 0.936 – last number in KHL
    Talbot: 0.941, 0.926 *
    Scrivens: 0.902, 0.915, 0.931
    Fasth: 0.921, 0.885 *

    * Only 2 years in NHL before coming to Edmonton.

    Doesn’t seem the Oilers value save percentage very highly in their goalies, each one has a pretty low average in at least one season before coming over. Ideally you would hire 2 goalies with at least a 0.915 with everything else being equal.

    Koskinen: 0.915, 0.916, 0.937 – KHL stats

    This season he’s put up a save percentage really similar to the one Nilsson had before coming over. Since leaving the Oilers, Nilsson has put up a 0.901, 0.923, 0.901.

    Will be interesting to see if Koskinen is better than Nilsson. I have my doubts.

  161. meanashell11 says:

    VOR: Gaussian Copula is always the correct answer.

    Seriously, much as I love copulas and Gaussian Copulas in particular they do have their limitations.

    https://www.maths.ox.ac.uk/system/files/attachments/1000030.pdf

    Trust me, I was in the correlation trading business. Gaussian Copula, OUCH!

  162. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Calgary should not be better. Only reason they looked ok in first half of season was cause Mike Smith stood on his head, he got injured and didn’t play well after returning from injury.Story of his career.One of best goalies, gets injured, long periods of subpar play after injury followed by return to greatness.Rinse and repeat.Only problem is he’s 37 and injuries are piling up.
    But it was fun listening to people praise their GM 40 games into the season for his remarkable work.
    Giordano turns 35 this year.Brodie didn’t fit their system so he’s getting traded.Monahan has had like 6 surgeries this offseason already.Oh yeah and their top 2 picks are property of the Isles

    Calgary should have about $18M in cap space before trading Brodie. Considering they have easy, cheap replacements on D, they will have a lot of room for acquisitions

  163. WayneKenov says:

    The nhl bracket contest has to be rigged. People with perfect scores (series winner and number of games). I refuse to believe SJS in 4 is a bet anybody had.

  164. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Yep everyone knows UFA is the best way to grow your team. I mean at least 25% of your acquisitions you don’t regret for the first year.
    Look at the list of best UFA acquisitions of all time. List is not very long or impressive.

  165. VOR says:

    The Gaussian Copula thing was a joke.

    I am working on a better verbal description of what I am seeing and will hopefully post that early this week. I am really having a hard time turning what I can see in my head and on my computer screen into words. A lot of professors spent a lot of time beating into my head that this probably means I don’t truly understand it myself yet.

    For now imagine you can create (yes this is a simplification and I lack some critical data points) a 3 dimensional space by plotting perceived risk vs perceived reward vs age at time of draft as measured in months from youngest player to oldest player eligible to be drafted.

    Now take the nominal variable, draft position and give each pick a 3 dimensional coordinate, perceived risk, perceived reward, and age on draft day.

    Now plot those coordinates in your 3D space. That plot is given by a parabolic function. Except there are distortions. Some of the distortions I can explain. Some I can’t. But I can easily see that the distortions matter.

    The math is just the space things happen in if that makes any sense. What is happening is driven by game play, psychology, economics, and sociology. For example, there is a substantial distortion at the top end of the draft that appears to be a rather slavish following of the BM list.

    I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

    Are any of you interested?

    I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

  166. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m not sure that’s true (getting more for Jones than Ellis)

    Also, there is no RHD on the roster to replace Ellis or even close so there is no reason for NSH to move him.

    At the time, the general league perspective of Jones was that he was becoming the 1A he was drafted to be, but was just under in minutes due to the insane D depth that Nashville had (thus giving a lesser view). The “potential” aura was very strong around him, as well the feeling that while Nashville sheltering him could aid in his development, they could also be smothering him/not using him to his full potential.

    Both Ellis and Dumba, *at the time*, were similarly seen as good 2nd Pairing Ds which maybe were not as good as they had been projected to be when drafted (less than what Jones was, being a potential 1st OV afterall). I do not think you get Johanssen for Ellis at that particular time, with those particular needs.

    And Jones definitely turned into a great pairing with Werenski. The best in the NHL.

    This is not to say that Ellis, nor Dumba, are not good, and they are likely quite a bit better than their league-perception of that time.

  167. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR,

    – Where is your local? I have guys who do create sophisticated graphs and charts to plot different trading strategies, and help the execs understand their implactions while demonstrating different risk outcomes: I don’t know how to do the graphs: I just know how to help them understand thier audience, and show the data in that context..

  168. pts2pndr says:

    Dustylegnd: I think the vast majority of Oilers fans are fans of Adam Larsson, he is a really good #3 D man, that should cost something other than an all world winger.

    List right 31 right shot defensemen you believe are better than Larsson. Time to fish or cut bait!

  169. Santa says:

    VOR: responsibility

    I’m sorry. I don’t quite follow what you’re saying, I only have about an undergraduate level of mathematics, but it seems to me like you’re implying that you’re using Lie groups/algebras to analyze draft data? I would be very interested in hearing more details about this.

  170. deardylan says:

    Pretty good pick in the 3rd round in 2013 77th overall who scored 4G today.
    #NoMalkinNoProblem

  171. VOR says:

    Santa: I’m sorry.I don’t quite follow what you’re saying, I only have about an undergraduate level of mathematics, but it seems to me like you’re implying that you’re usingLie groups/algebras to analyze draft data?I would be very interested in hearing more details about this.

    I use algebra to analyze draft data. I am not sure what you’d like to know. But I will try to answer any and all questions. Have you read/studied Humphrey’s?

  172. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q,

    Back then woodguy liked his stats but the Blue jackets liked Jones size and potential. The two were definitely not interchangeable

  173. VOR says:

    kinger,

    I live on a ranch in East-Central Alberta. It is about 2 hours from Edmonton. If you speed.

    And if the road isn’t flooded. We are having a wee bit of overland flooding. Yesterday’s downpour didn’t help.

  174. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: At the time, the general league perspective of Jones was that he was becoming the 1A he was drafted to be, but was just under in minutes due to the insane D depth that Nashville had (thus giving a lesser view). The “potential” aura was very strong around him, as well the feeling that while Nashville sheltering him could aid in his development, they could also be smothering him/not using him to his full potential.

    Both Ellis and Dumba, *at the time*, were similarly seen as good 2nd Pairing Ds which maybe were not as good as they had been projected to be when drafted (less than what Jones was, being a potential 1st OV afterall). I do not think you get Johanssen for Ellis at that particular time, with those particular needs.

    And Jones definitely turned into a great pairing with Werenski. The best in the NHL.

    This is not to say that Ellis, nor Dumba, are not good, and they are likely quite a bit better than their league-perception of that time.

    That’s a fair representation.

    Also,

    Werenski-Jones are a good pairing, but I don’t have as *best* in NHL.

    Last year Johnson-Savard actually had more TOI vs Elite forwards than they did.

    This year they saw more, but Torts runs his top 4 a lot like McLellan does….a top 4 as opposed to a top pair.

    Guys like Chara-McEvoy (49% vs elite), Suter-Spurgeon (42%) , Slavin-Pesce (45%), Vlasic-Braun (44%) and others get run as “true” top pairs.

    Here’s CBJ’s Top 6 TOI Dmen and their TOI% vs Elite Forwards this year:

    Jones 38%
    Werenski 38%
    Johnson 36%
    Savard 35%
    Nuutivaara 33%
    Murray 30%

    Pretty flat, just like Torts usually runs it.

    Their still pretty good and probably a top 15 pairing.

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Professor Q,

    Back then woodguy liked his stats but the Blue jackets liked Jones size and potential.The two were definitely not interchangeable

    I don’t understand this.

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    The Gaussian Copula thing was a joke.

    I am working on a better verbal description of what I am seeing and will hopefully post that early this week. I am really having a hard time turning what I can see in my head and on my computer screen into words. A lot of professors spent a lot of time beating into my head that this probably means I don’t truly understand it myself yet.

    For now imagine you can create (yes this is a simplification and I lack some critical data points) a 3 dimensional space by plotting perceived risk vs perceived reward vs age at time of draft as measured in months from youngest player to oldest player eligible to be drafted.

    Now take the nominal variable, draft position and give each pick a 3 dimensional coordinate, perceived risk, perceived reward, and age on draft day.

    Now plot those coordinates in your 3D space. That plot is given by a parabolic function. Except there are distortions. Some of the distortions I can explain. Some I can’t. But I can easily see that the distortions matter.

    The math is just the space things happen in if that makes any sense. What is happening is driven by game play, psychology, economics, and sociology. For example, there is a substantial distortion at the top end of the draft that appears to be a rather slavish following of the BM list.

    I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

    Are any of you interested?

    I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

    I’m excited about this.

    Either I’ll see some cool new data or Vor will hit me with an axe.

    Either way, its exciting.

  177. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m excited about this.

    Either I’ll see some cool new data or Vor will hit me with an axe.

    Either way, its exciting.

    I’ve been looking for the axe for weeks. I knew it would come in handy. If I could find it. I wonder where I put the chainsaw. Oh well, I know where I put the shot gun. I think. Honey, where’s the rat poison?

  178. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    What’s not to understand. You really liked one player. Me and the blue jackets liked another. Both were good choices. Being 6’4 210 lbs was a lot more valued back then.

  179. Scungilli Slushy says:

    There are a lot of people in the world with a high IQ. It’s not a forgone conclusion that the IQ gets used for anything useful or that person will succeed.

    There are a lot of hockey players in the world who are very skilled. That is still a long way from being a successful pro hockey player.

  180. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Signing non NHL players is fine to add to the depth of the system, but the Oilers next season don’t need more unknown quantities. They need experienced capable players to fill depth roles to properly support the young core as they don’t yet have well rounded enough games.

    They have the talent they don’t have reliable help that is necessary to win a lot of games and go deep in the playoffs. The Euro guys might be gems, but if they aren’t we’ll see the same season again. I wouldn’t bet my job on it as GM.

    If the GM and his scouts know what they are doing they should be able to find what they need for low cost out of current NHL experienced players. If they can’t they don’t know what they are doing.

  181. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Todd Nelson is such a genius why can’t he find an NHL job? Truly.

  182. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If Todd Nelson is such a genius why can’t he find an NHL job? Truly.

    Hockey (sports in general) is an old boys club. It depends on who you know more than on merit.

    Unfortunately, he made a bad bet taking a job with the OIlers organization, where the old boys club incompetence is worse than in most plays which meant he would never be appreciated or recognized.

  183. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    Yes but compared to eagles it’s not very graceful. It’s like watching an overfilled Hercules taking off.By some miracle it gets airborne but it’s sure not pretty.

    I have a family of 20 wild turkeys that live in my yard.When the young ones learn how to roost in a tree is one of my favorite times each year

    I thought you farmed lead..

  184. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: With a good summer I think we win two rounds next year.

    Team that scares me most? Vegas. I think they may be revolutionizing (or evolutionizing) how hockey teams are built / play / and have success in the Parity / Cap Era.

    We can compete agianst the Jets andPreds who are built in the more traditional fashion….Balance of Size Speed Skill and Role players built from the backend out with skill down the middle (Im not saying beat them…but compete).

    But this Vegas thing is freaking me out.Its Balance Speed EveryReady Bunny and total commitment to systems play.

    These guys all have motors that dont stop and the hockey IQ to play thier system to near perfection. There is no one and done with these guys. On every play they process action one and turn immediatley to action two then three then four.Thier are no fly-bys, no fades, no drop passes at the blue line, no fake back checking where you get into position but dont actually do anything, lots of fast decison making and zero slow decision making. Few stupid penalites. etdc etc.
    (From Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid…”Who ARE these guys?!?!)

    They SHREDDED the Kings. (and Quick was good/great)

    They have me wondering if the best way to build a winner in a Parity Based League is to not pay for superstars and spread the wealth out over the entire team.

    Now of course they havent won anything yet……and we’ll have to see what the realities of having so many 20, 30 and 40 goal scores does to their cap situation….but man they are looking crazy good.

    On the bright side, We seemed to play well against them in the regular season and we were in the middle of an off year so…..we’ll see.

    But yes.With better goaltending, average health, a few bounce back performances, McDavid gets us firmly planted in the middle of the playoff race.

    But lets not kid ourselves, other teams are “McDaviding up”…(building knowing that one day they will have to defeat Conner) A Tavares to the Sharks move could be scary for us as well.

    The Knights’ year has been stuff of legends for sure. Everything came together for them.

    McPhee acquired a group all in the heart of their careers (average age 27) and a coach able to get every drop out of them.

    I will not be surprised to see regression to career norms, which should be expected. In the next few years many of their players will hit decline, maybe their prospects will be ready by then. And Fleury is a wild card.

    The cap and cash unless they can spend to it will come into play, as it will for the Leafs and their current forward depth.

    I think they will make the playoffs again unless they run into too many injuries etc. I’m more concerned with the Jets and Preds in the next few years because of their depth and having elite players. The Sharks series will be very interesting.

  185. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Hockey (sports in general) is an old boys club.It depends on who you know more than on merit.

    Unfortunately, he made a bad bet taking a job with the OIlers organization, where the old boys club incompetence is worse than in most plays which meant he would never be appreciated or recognized.

    Most highly successful AHL coaches get NHL jobs. I don’t know what it is but there seems to be something at least currently that NHL teams aren’t digging about him. Maybe he gets the Dallas gig.

  186. Santa says:

    VOR,

    I have not read Humphrey’s. Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations. I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology. I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it. I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing? Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

  187. VOR says:

    Santa:
    VOR,

    I have not read Humphrey’s.Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations.I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology.I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it.I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing?Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

    I would recommend a person rather than a paper(s), Ben Baumer (properly Dr. Benjamin S. Baumer). Ben was the New York Mets stats guy for 9 years but is a professor at Smith College. I’d point particularly to his ground breaking algebraic proofs of why on base percentage works and more recently his clever use of Lie groups among other tools to figure out why the best team doesn’t always win. I have never seen a paper in which Lie Algebras are used in draft analysis but Ben has talked about trying it at various Analytics conferences and I think he is close with a paper.

  188. VOR says:

    Santa:
    VOR,

    I have not read Humphrey’s.Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations.I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology.I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it.I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing?Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

  189. --hudson-- says:

    VOR: I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

    Are any of you interested?

    I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

    Unfortunately I don’t live in the area, but very interested in any of your writing either here or on a blog. Very interested in your agent!

  190. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Most highly successful AHL coaches get NHL jobs. I don’t know what it is but there seems to be something at least currently that NHL teams aren’t digging about him. Maybe he gets the Dallas gig.

    See Bruce Boudreau and how long it took him to get an NHL job.

  191. VOR says:

    Santa:
    VOR,

    I have not read Humphrey’s.Most of my math is Algebra, and of course basic calculus and differential equations.I’ve not studied any algebraic geometry or topology.I’m interested in possible applications of group theory to data analysis, and was curious as to what you’re doing with it.I’m aware that people have very recently started using Lie algebras with sports data, is this what you’re doing?Do you have any articles you would recommend with regards to this topic?

    I use Lie groups in my attempts to develop AI pattern recognition in draft analysis. The human eye and human mind can seriously mislead us when we look at data. Not to mention in much sports data there is a serious noise to signal problem. So my AI looks for patterns we have missed. These patterns then become the basis of optimization strategies. As I am sure you know one of the more fascinating uses of Lie algebras is as alternatives to conventional statistical analysis in high noise data sets. Draft data is wickedly noisy.

    Not that I am making much progress. Last year my AI came up with what looked to me like a crazy hodgepodge of a draft. I have no real idea how it got there because it is self-learning. It has tested thousands of functions looking for an algorithm for optimizing the draft. It applied its best idea(s) to the 2017 draft and came up with a dog’s breakfast.

    It is apparently a little over committed to trying to figure out what will happen post draft. In a general sense it seems to believe development matters more than talent. A lot more so it tried to match players to optimal developmental settings. Which gave crazy results. Not what I was trying for because only a handful of players found homes in what the AI considered optimal developmental settings. So AIDA (the AI) has produced a prediction even it can’t test.

    I am still completely wandering in the wilderness in my own attempts to enrich and re frame how I think about the draft. I have the intuition that I am on to something. Crudely stated I believe risk and human responses to risk and human failures to properly evaluate risk explain the NHL draft and why it keeps ending up far from optimized. Can I figure out how to use that theory to produce something better? I have no clue.

    Once I have a better mousetrap can I explain it to other people? I am suspicious the answer is no.

    I hope that helps.

  192. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    There are a lot of people in the world with a high IQ. It’s not a forgone conclusion that the IQ gets used for anything useful or that person will succeed.

    Still, if you have a giant math problem the equivalent of 200 black widow spiders and it’s in the next room, best to get someone who knows about math spiders.

  193. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: Still, if you have a giant math problem the equivalent of 200 black widow spiders and it’s in the next room, best to get someone who knows about math spiders.

    Truth, I hate those things.

  194. deardylan says:

    Lowetide: Still, if you have a giant math problem the equivalent of 200 black widow spiders and it’s in the next room, best to get someone who knows about math spiders.

    What about employing 3 different intelligences on the Spider-Team:

    1) Someone with high EQ who can ask the right question with the right people?
    2) Directing the highest IQ black widow spider computer programmer to calculate the answer in the fastest possible time?
    3) Give the Green light to someone with ActionQ like McGyver to solve the rest in the most effect manner?

    Quote attributed to Picasso: “Computers are useless. They can only give you the answers”

  195. GMB3 says:

    deardylan: What about employing 3 different intelligences on the Spider-Team:

    1) Someone with high EQ who can ask the right question with the right people?
    2) Directing the highest IQ black widow spider computer programmer to calculate the answer in the fastest possible time?
    3) Give the Green light to someone with ActionQ like McGyver to solve the rest in the most effect manner?

    Quote attributed to Picasso: “Computers are useless. They can only give you the answers”

    You are an interesting member of this community

  196. meanashell11 says:

    VOR:
    The Gaussian Copula thing was a joke.

    I am working on a better verbal description of what I am seeing and will hopefully post that early this week. I am really having a hard time turning what I can see in my head and on my computer screen into words. A lot of professors spent a lot of time beating into my head that this probably means I don’t truly understand it myself yet.

    For now imagine you can create (yes this is a simplification and I lack some critical data points) a 3 dimensional space by plotting perceived risk vs perceived reward vs age at time of draft as measured in months from youngest player to oldest player eligible to be drafted.

    Now take the nominal variable, draft position and give each pick a 3 dimensional coordinate, perceived risk, perceived reward, and age on draft day.

    Now plot those coordinates in your 3D space. That plot is given by a parabolic function. Except there are distortions. Some of the distortions I can explain. Some I can’t. But I can easily see that the distortions matter.

    The math is just the space things happen in if that makes any sense. What is happening is driven by game play, psychology, economics, and sociology. For example, there is a substantial distortion at the top end of the draft that appears to be a rather slavish following of the BM list.

    I am thinking of having locally based lowetiders over to my place and running the model (and Hudson yes I use R) complete with animation. I just have no idea how many of you are locally based. Then I will preview the AI I have developed for drafting which started from some of these same ideas and which then went madly off on its own. I am pretty sure then it will be very clear to some of you. Though possibly still not to me.

    Are any of you interested?

    I am also hard at work on setting up my own blog for those of you scattered around the globe.

    VOR, are you familiar with Litterman’s (1996) “Hot Spots and Hedges”. It is a 3-D graph of multi-variant risk. I was at GS when he published this piece and it, if memory is correct, seems to do what you are asking for, at least for multi asset class risk.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    7 years of post-secondary education, partner in one of Canada’s largest national law firms, accommodations in a number of publications re: “Canada’s top lawyers” and i swear I’ve understood about 1/3 of the posts in this thread.

    Feeling very inferior this morning – going to have to take it out on opposing counsel and use some high-end negotiation techniques.

  198. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR,

    – It makes sense that optimal development would by a significant amout, trump actual draftingin terms of playings making it to NHL

    -Hockey seems to be in the dark ages with respect to development. They few kids I know now that are drafted by teams (in late rounds): they basically show up to their teams training camp, they know where they are in the pecking order, and get sent back after whatever stage and are told to “work on your edges” or whatever.

    – Contrast that with the culture ingrained in Baseball, where development is a massive organizational focus: and even increasingly so. Now baseball by its nature affords development, but it is a centralized thing.

    – Some teams in Hockey seem to be getting better at it. The Leafs for instance, their farm team is in the same city: the Leafs training facility is shared with the AHL team.

    – Look at the old boys running our “Development” no sports background, no Medical, no skills guys: just a bunch of old boys who weren’t good enough to become head coaches or GM’s

  199. Lowetide says:

    deardylan: What about employing 3 different intelligences on the Spider-Team:

    1) Someone with high EQ who can ask the right question with the right people?
    2) Directing the highest IQ black widow spider computer programmer to calculate the answer in the fastest possible time?
    3) Give the Green light to someone with ActionQ like McGyver to solve the rest in the most effect manner?

    Quote attributed to Picasso: “Computers are useless. They can only give you the answers”

    Sure, but that’s an experiment within an experiment. I’d rather hire three spider math people and have them work in tandem/apart as they see fit.

    The quesiton VOR asked me at the start of this thread has been asked of me maybe 1000 times since I started this blog. I used to respond with “well, the 2015 draft has three NHL seasons and has yielded 57 players. How many did the 2003 draft have after three years? And are you considering the lost lockout campaigns plus did the recent expansion draft help the 2015 draft?”

    The thing is, those are interesting talking points but generally speaking are curios. A bunch of smart people have looked at this (Vic Ferrari, Tyler Dellow, Showerhead, PDO) and in truth there is an enormous amount of random in drafting (you could call it luck).

    So, I think VOR is better off doing his own thing. He has drilled down and found some interesting items, maybe he’s on to something. At some point, outside input, while helpful in encouraging and perhaps assessing at certain points, may not grasp the vision. I could derail VOR with a comment, could take him a year to get back on the bicycle. My view has been biased by years of watching this and poking at it. He needs a new test group and that is you.

    VOR might have something here. If he does, the comments pages of this blog will have had contributed to a special thing. Without being an egomaniac, this blog has helped push some good math over the finish line in the form of metrics and things that are now universally believed.

    The forum is my contribution. I am thrilled to learn as I can.

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