What to expect when you’re expecting to win the draft lottery

Saturday night brings us another draft lottery and as you know the Edmonton Oilers are the kings of that game. I wrote an item for The Athletic this morning, about what would happen if Edmonton won the lottery, the impact of Rasmus Dahlin, and the likely popularity of the phrase ‘Dahlin-to-McDavid” in the coming years. I hope you have the time to read it. He’s a special player.

THE ATHLETIC

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

THE 2018 DRAFT

I have completed the Top 120 list, planned to publish it on Monday. Would you like to see it before or after the lottery? Let me know. I can publish tomorrow of Friday morning if that works. Here’s my latest mock if the Oilers finish No. 9.

  • First Round—No. 9 overall—RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). “He’s got a big-time shot and as his junior career has progressed, he has learned to use it more. Great poise with the puck and he may be the best passer in the entire draft class.” (Ryan Kennedy, The Hockey News via OHL Prospects).
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall—R Jonatan Berggren, Skelleftea (SuperElite). Berggren is one of the most fearless forwards I’ve seen in recent years, which says a lot when you consider he’s listed at 5’10. A two-way winger with a nonstop motor, Berggren’s speed and anticipation causes havoc for opposing defenders, but it’s the plays he makes after forcing turnovers that separate him from most players his age. His active stick and quick hands turn harmless dump-ins into quality chances, and his speed allows him to blow past defenders at the blue line. Playing and thinking at the same time is a rare combination for young players, but Berggren does both at high level. He scored a nice goal after he turned what looked like an average one-on-one entry into a clean dash and stuff-in at the cage.” (Steve Kournianos)
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall—L Liam Foudy, London Knights (OHL). I am strong on him because of the way he finished the regular season (35, 20-14-34). Even with the very slow start to the year, Foudy ended up No. 30 among forwards in goals per game (18 and under) in the OHL.
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya covered the condition).
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overallLC Ryan Chyzowski, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Strong forward with skill (21 goals and 52 points in 72 games) and Kournianos describes his shot as heavy and accurate.
  • Sixth Round—No. 164 overallLC Connor Dewar, Everett Silvertips (WHL). He had a strong reputation for being a strong two-way center but a little shy offensively. Spiked this season and would be real value at this number.
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overallL Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). I liked him a year ago, still like him now. He gets zoomed by linemates and isn’t a fast train but his primary point count is good and he can turn pro now.

While I have a minute, want to reiterate how my list is put together. I publish the final list June 1, long before the professional lists are out. I do pay attention to Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, Bob McKenzie, Craig Button, The Black Book, Simon Boisvert and several others who will be noted when I publish my updated list. I also have some support from the scouting community (basically making sure these prospects have 10 fingers and toes).

Math is king for my list, that’s what makes it unique. Gabriel Desjardins and Rob Vollman originated and tweaked NHLE’s, respectively. I think an NHL team could go a good job just by sussing out the math of the draft, maybe place it alongside Bob McKenzie’s list.

Finally, when I publish the final 120 on June 1, I will be adding a ‘touch list’ featuring players who I like but don’t have enough information on. They could be draft and follow options.

-Photo by Mark Williams-

OILERS AHL FORWARDS IN 2010-11

How bad was it? We know the Bakersfield Condors didn’t have many forward prospects pushing offense last season, but how did the efforts of last year’s team compare to Oilers farmhands past?

The fabulous site prospect-stats.com gives us a chance to compare seasons and therefore prospect snapshots (through the past, darkly). I’ve chosen primary points (it’s a gooder, like God’s flashlight with fresh batteries) and here are the notables in 5-on-5 primary points per 60 for Oklahoma City Barons. I’m listing all forwards, prospects in blue.

  1. Liam Reddox 0.54
  2. Linus Omark 0.50
  3. Alexandre Giroux 0.44
  4. Mark Arcobello 0.38
  5. Brad Moran 0.35
  6. Colin McDonald 0.33
  7. Teemu Hartikainen 0.30
  8. Milan Kytnar 0.23
  9. Phil Cornet 0.23
  10. Ben Ondrus 0.17
  11. Greg Stewart 0.16
  12. Chris VandeVelde 0.15
  13. Matt Marquardt 0.11
  14. Ryan O’Marra 0.11

Reddox would spend significant time in the NHL during the 2010-11 season, then head to the SHL where he carved out a nice career. Linus Omark would also spend time in the NHL during ’10-’11, and posted some impressive offensive numbers. I think there was an NHL player there. Mark Arcobello, Colin McDonald and Chris VandeVelde would all carve out NHL careers of varying degrees. The 2010-11 team produced no long-term solutions for the Oilers, none remain in the NHL.

OILERS AHL FORWARDS IN 2017-18

  1. Ty Rattie 0.43
  2. Zach O’Brien 0.35
  3. Josh Currie 0.31
  4. Joe Gambardella 0.30
  5. Joey Laleggia 0.29
  6. Brad Malone 0.27
  7. Dave Gust 0.26
  8. Patrick Russell 0.25
  9. Mitch Callahan 0.20
  10. Braden Christoffer 0.19
  11. Grayson Downing 0.17
  12. Kyle Platzer 0.16
  13. Evan Polei 0.13
  14. Ryan Hamilton 0.12
  15. Greg Chase 0.12

Remember this is primary points per 60, so heavily reliant on the player in question. Ty Rattie was easily the best Condor forward this past season, but the big issue is how few players reached even Colin McDonald’s level. The Oilers simply didn’t have enough skill a year ago and that must change.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. I am loving the lineup today, we should have a lot of fun. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Toronto-Boston Game 7 should be a classic, we’ll chat with Bruce about two famous Game 7’s involving the Oilers (1987 and 2006).
  • Pete Blackburn, CBS Sports Boston. Love that dirty water! It’s Game 7!
  • Zac Jackson, The Athletic Cleveland. The Browns have picks No. 1 and No. 4. Where are they going?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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137 Responses to "What to expect when you’re expecting to win the draft lottery"

  1. Rondo says:

    #9 -to #12 – Dobson, Bouchard, Kotkaniemi, and Hayton.

    2nd round- Jake Wise , Nils Lundkvist , Kirill Marchenko, and Jonatan Berggren

  2. elgruntus says:

    I thought there was a player in Evan Polei . Tough to know with the way the farm team deploys prospects. But, I’ve been wrong many times before

  3. dustrock says:

    LT do you think Chiarelli trades the pick if we don’t get #1 or #2?

    People have talked about moving down a few spots – I’m not sure that’s possible unless you’re maybe drafting #3 or 4 and the team 5 spots below really wants a particular player.

    This draft seems to be all over the place and it wouldn’t shock me at all if teams had vastly different rankings.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Way to put the whammy on the lottery balls LT.

    When the 15% horse to move up to the top 3 doesn’t come in I’m blaming you.

    And Laforge.

  5. Cassandra says:

    To Vor from the last thread.

    I understand what you are saying. Indeed, I wanted the Oilers to trade RNH or Eberle for Couturier years ago.

    That said, I see no way for the math to back up your valuing of defense here.

    Going back to the Gainey–Middleton example.

    Even if you strip out powerplay production and count that as even (which of course it isn’t), Middleton is contributing +30 goals a season more on offense than Gainey.

    That means for them to be equal players, Gainey’s defensive contributions have to save 30 goals a season on defense compared to Middleton (not compared to replacement).

    In a league in which approximately 300 goals are allowed in a season that is a number that is beyond comprehension. For instance in baseball, with around 700 runs a season, the greatest shortstop of all time saved about 20 runs a season.

    There is no way one player in hockey can save 30 goals a season. That’s the range of the difference that goalies make, not players.

    The only way I can even conceive of getting there is through something like quality of competition. But here you run into logical fallacies.

    Gainey is better than Middleton because he plays tougher competition than Middleton.
    Gainey plays against Middleton.
    Therefore Middleton plays against Gainey.
    Therefore Middleton is tougher competition than Gainey.

    I buy that Gainey’s defensive contributions shrink the difference between the two. I also buy that on the aggregate Gainey is going to play slightly tougher competition than Middleton. But without an attempt to put a number to these factors there is no way I can accept that these thinks make up for the offensive gap between them.

    The gap is too big.

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Those numbers from the farm really are depressing: we are still are at best 1-2 years from being able to expect contribution from our drafted players coming up from the AHL: Bear maybe, Jones maybe?

    – You can see why we have gone after so many college guys

    – I wonder if back during the DoD, did we have this same awareness of the dearth of prospects, or are we just better now at knowing odds of success, failure rates, etc, and not buying smoke

  7. godot10 says:

    Cassandra:
    To Vor from the last thread.

    I understand what you are saying.Indeed, I wanted the Oilers to trade RNH or Eberle for Couturier years ago.

    That said, I see no way for the math to back up your valuing of defense here.

    Going back to the Gainey–Middleton example.

    Even if you strip out powerplay production and count that as even (which of course it isn’t), Middleton is contributing +30 goals a season more on offense than Gainey.

    That means for them to be equal players, Gainey’s defensive contributions have to save 30 goals a season on defense compared to Middleton (not compared to replacement).

    In a league in which approximately 300 goals are allowed in a season that is a number that is beyond comprehension.For instance in baseball, with around 700 runs a season, the greatest shortstop of all time saved about 20 runs a season.

    There is no way one player in hockey can save 30 goals a season.That’s the range of the difference that goalies make, not players.

    The only way I can even conceive of getting there is through something like quality of competition.But here you run into logical fallacies.

    Gainey is better than Middleton because he plays tougher competition than Middleton.
    Gainey plays against Middleton.
    Therefore Middleton plays against Gainey.
    Therefore Middleton is tougher competition than Gainey.

    I buy that Gainey’s defensive contributions shrink the difference between the two.I also buy that on the aggregate Gainey is going to play slightly tougher competition than Middleton.But without an attempt to put a number to these factors there is no way I can accept that these thinks make up for the offensive gap between them.

    The gap is too big.

    Middleton wouldn’t have played as much in Montreal (or in scoring situations). They had Guy Lafleur.

    Middleton was scoring about 25-35 even strength goals per year. Gainey 15-20. So you are only talking about a 10-15 goal difference, not 30.

    Victor Tikhonov on Gainey: “technically the most complete player in the world.” Wayne Gretzky was playing hockey at the time.

    The only thing Gainey didn’t have was elite offense. He had average offense and elite everything else.

  8. godot10 says:

    godot10: Middleton wouldn’t have played as much in Montreal (or in scoring situations).They had Guy Lafleur.

    Middleton was scoring about 25-35 even strength goals per year.Gainey 15-20.So you are only talking about a 10-15 goal difference, not 30.

    Victor Tikhonov on Gainey: “technically the most complete player in the world.” Wayne Gretzky was playing hockey at the time.

    The only thing Gainey didn’t have was elite offense.He had average offense and elite everything else.

    Bob Gainey would make any team in hockey history. He would be one of the 20 players selected. He is an true outlier with a unique skill set.

  9. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10,

    – It’s an interesting query: Rick averaged 23 EV Goals per season, Gainey 13.

    – What’s the 10 goals worth vs. PK#1, Shut-Down, lesser linemates, Zone Starts

    – Middleton, while he scored a lot more goals, he was not elite: he was top-10 twice in 12 seasons

    – So elite shut-down guy vs. offensive guy who scored a lot of goals?

    – Bob Gainey was probably on a perfect team for him: lots of elite offensive talent. Middleton slots below Shutt/Lafleur/Tremblay on that team

    – Middleton should get consideration for HoF but 16 years of Gainey > 12 years of Middleton

    – Montreal would be a worse team with Middleton and no Gainey IMO

  10. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Bob Gainey would make any team in hockey history.He would be one of the 20 players selected.He is an true outlier with a unique skill set.

    There are reasonable arguments for both players, I’d take Gainey. But then I was a Habs fan pre NHL Oilers.

    Just please Oilers don’t try to draft Gainey, it’s a fool’s gambit, too much of an outlier.

    When drafting, until Vor’s machine lurches to life, you draft the Middletons.

  11. Brantford Boy says:

    LT, I wouldn’t mind seeing the draft list on Friday… the day before we win it… cheers!

  12. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Scungilli Slushy: There are reasonable arguments for both players, I’d take Gainey. But then I was a Habs fan pre NHL Oilers.

    Just please Oilers don’t try to draft Gainey, it’s a fool’s gambit, too much of an outlier.

    When drafting, until Vor’s machine lurches to life, you draft the Middletons.

    – I agree with you.

    – it’s pretty intuitive- goal scorers all things being equal are the most talented and skilled players.

    – so if by the time the get to the show the most talented relative can’t make it as scorers then you try to “bob gainey” them when they aren’t good enough goal scorers.

  13. Stud Muffin says:

    Death, Taxes and LT selecting multiple overagers in his mock draft. 🙂

  14. Confused says:

    https://www.championat.com/hockey/article-3413449-glavnye-transfernye-insajdy-khl-ot-zhurnalistov-chempionata.html

    Here is another article stating

    Finnish goalkeeper Mikko Koskinen will sign a contract with the NHL “Edmonton Oilers” club for a period of two years and a total salary of $ 5 million.

    Bob said yesterday one but not three of these facts is wrong (name, amount, term)

    The article is really about Goalkeeper “Ak Bars” Emil Garipov who is apparently also been chased.

    Much Russian social media speculation that large numbers of players are looking to leave to the NHL, KHL was financial problems.

    If these guys are really available, they are effectively UFAs, but potentially quite cheap UFAs. The KHL is probably the value play at the moment.

    Are the Oilers aggressively buying?

    These guys will need one-way contracts, but many (not big stars) could get send to Bake, loaned back to the KHL and even the SHL. Development, it is a real thing, but grab them now.

    Just pay the guy, and Daryl has lots of money — lets spend it! These guy need contracts and guaranteed pay-cheques.

    Could solve many of our lower-end proposect problems with some intelligent pick-ups.

  15. Cassandra says:

    godot10: Middleton wouldn’t have played as much in Montreal (or in scoring situations).They had Guy Lafleur.

    Middleton was scoring about 25-35 even strength goals per year.Gainey 15-20.So you are only talking about a 10-15 goal difference, not 30.

    Victor Tikhonov on Gainey: “technically the most complete player in the world.” Wayne Gretzky was playing hockey at the time.

    The only thing Gainey didn’t have was elite offense.He had average offense and elite everything else.

    I did the math, over their primes, at even strength the difference per 80 games played is 15 goals and 14 assists. So 30 goals. And that doesn’t count the additional 30 goal difference from the power play.

    And Middleton wasn’t giving things away on the defensive end either. His plus/minus over that time was + 24 per 80 games. Gainey’s was + 15. Now we don’t have the empty net nonsense part of that stat but if we care about outscoring, Middleton was the better outscorer.

    So the argument for Gainey really comes down to quality of teammates and competition, not defense. There is no way to get there on the basis of defense alone.

    The only way to favour Gainey over Middleton is to take every single unknown and decide that it favours Gainey.

    I find that to be an unreasonable way of considering unknowns.

  16. stephen sheps says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Just please Oilers don’t try to draft Gainey, it’s a fool’s gambit, too much of an outlier.

    When drafting, until Vor’s machine lurches to life, you draft the Middletons.

    Or you try to draft the Patrice Bergerons… someone who seems to split the difference. Not quite elite offence but incredibly consistent scoring production across his career, plays in all 3 situations, drives possession and is up for his 5th Selke. Not bad for a player who’s initial scouting reports said brilliant 2 way centre with upside and who was barely at 1.0ppg in the Q in his draft year.

    Bergeron is the prototype for the ideal 2-way forward in this era of the NHL.

    I don’t quite recall what it was that prompted this conversation (DeBrincat vs. Benson maybe?) but I see nothing wrong with drafting kids with many very good to excellent tools in their toolboxes rather than a kid who has one exceptional tool but might need a lot of help to use it effectively.

    Given the lack of quality prospects bubbling under, the Oilers can’t afford the luxury of a boom/bust type high pick. Range of skills. It’s the right thing to do.

    (Note – I am not advocating for the ‘safe’ pick in the 9 slot, and having watched exactly 0 jr. hockey games this year, I’m entirely unqualified to opine on any players potentially in the 9 slot, though Boqvist, Bouchard or Wahlstrom each sound like good choices on paper).

    In terms of the DeBrincat vs. Benson debate – we don’t know what we don’t know. DeBrincat had a great year on a team with lots of veterans and a coach who put him in a position to succeed. Benson played in the WHL and had his first healthy season since forever. We don’t know how he’ll do against NHL (or even AHL) level competition. We don’t know if the Oilers coaching staff will set him up for success the same way coach Q did with DeBrincat. 43.9% of his EV TOI was with Toews, and he also shot the lights out (15.6% compared to his 5v5 sh% of 9.54%) and had pretty favourable zone starts (57.6 oz). With that kind of sheltering, he was able to have the good rookie season he had – similar to Hall’s rookie year playing with Horcoff. If Benson makes the team out of camp, will he play on Leon’s left side? Strome’s? Will he get favourable zone starts? It’s easy to say the pick was crap when DeBrincat was there for the taking and was passed over and then put up 28 goals as a rookie, but it’s also a fool’s errand to project a player who has yet to play a single minute of regular season hockey in the NHL as a bust or lacking value.

  17. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra: I find that to be an unreasonable way of considering unknowns.

    Agreed wholeheartedly

  18. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Confused:
    https://www.championat.com/hockey/article-3413449-glavnye-transfernye-insajdy-khl-ot-zhurnalistov-chempionata.html

    Here is another article stating

    Finnish goalkeeper Mikko Koskinen will sign a contract with the NHL “Edmonton Oilers” club for a period of two years and a total salary of $ 5 million.

    Bob said yesterday one but not three of these facts is wrong (name, amount, term)

    The article is really about Goalkeeper “Ak Bars” Emil Garipov who is apparently also been chased.

    Much Russian social media speculation that large numbers of players are looking to leave to the NHL, KHL was financial problems.

    If these guys are really available, they are effectively UFAs, but potentially quite cheap UFAs. The KHL is probably the value play at the moment.

    Are the Oilers aggressively buying?

    These guys will need one-way contracts, but many (not big stars) could get send to Bake, loaned back to the KHL and even the SHL. Development, it is a real thing, but grab them now.

    Just pay the guy, and Daryl has lots of money — lets spend it! These guy need contracts and guaranteed pay-cheques.

    Could solve many of our lower-end proposect problems with some intelligent pick-ups.

    And most importantly they cost no assets. Some day it will matter less when the team is set and the pipeline full, right now it is critical to keep as many picks as possible.

  19. Scungilli Slushy says:

    stephen sheps: Or you try to draft the Patrice Bergerons… someone who seems to split the difference. Not quite elite offence but incredibly consistent scoring production across his career, plays in all 3 situations, drives possession and is up for his 5th Selke. Not bad for a player who’s initial scouting reports said brilliant 2 way centre with upside and who was barely at 1.0ppg in the Q in his draft year.

    Bergeron is the prototype for the ideal 2-way forward in this era of the NHL.

    I don’t quite recall what it was that prompted this conversation (DeBrincat vs. Benson maybe?) but I see nothing wrong with drafting kids with many very good to excellent tools in their toolboxes rather than a kid who has one exceptional tool but might need a lot of help to use it effectively.

    Given the lack of quality prospects bubbling under, the Oilers can’t afford the luxury of a boom/bust type high pick. Range of skills. It’s the right thing to do.

    (Note – I am not advocating for the ‘safe’ pick in the 9 slot, and having watched exactly 0 jr. hockey games this year, I’m entirely unqualified to opine on any players potentially in the 9 slot, though Boqvist, Bouchard or Wahlstrom each sound like good choices on paper).

    In terms of the DeBrincat vs. Benson debate – we don’t know what we don’t know. DeBrincat had a great year on a team with lots of veterans and a coach who put him in a position to succeed. Benson played in the WHL and had his first healthy season since forever. We don’t know how he’ll do against NHL (or even AHL) level competition. We don’t know if the Oilers coaching staff will set him up for success the same way coach Q did with DeBrincat. 43.9% of his EV TOI was with Toews, and he also shot the lights out (15.6% compared to his 5v5 sh% of 9.54%) and had pretty favourable zone starts (57.6 oz). With that kind of sheltering, he was able to have the good rookie season he had – similar to Hall’s rookie year playing with Horcoff. If Benson makes the team out of camp, will he play on Leon’s left side? Strome’s? Will he get favourable zone starts? It’s easy to say the pick was crap when DeBrincat was there for the taking and was passed over and then put up 28 goals as a rookie, but it’s also a fool’s errand to project a player who has yet to play a single minute of regular season hockey in the NHL as a bust or lacking value.

    Well said, Bergeron is a beauty. I”m all for a range of skill if it includes good if not great offense and
    the other elements needed to succeed in the bigs, namely skating ability and assertiveness.

  20. Munny says:

    LT,

    Personally, I think after the lottery is the best, since we’re probably going to want to look at it again after the balls fall and Woodguy’s horse hits for Show money.

    I might even box a triactor with the Calgary horse…

  21. Cassandra says:

    Hockey Reference adjusts stats for era. If you adjust Bergeron’s stats for era he has 9 seasons of being a 60+ player, and 4 seasons of being a 70 + player. Gainey, by contrast has 6 seasons of being a 30 + player.

    Bergeron and Gainey are not the same kind of player at all. The gap between them on the offensive side is a chasm.

    I would buy that Bergeron was better than Middleton even though he scored less. That is plausible. Putting Gainey in the conversation is a dramatic case of over correction.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Although this is simply heresay at this point, some of my partners are quite connected to senior members of the flames management and word has come out today that Ken King is pretty sick (lung cancer – and fairly advanced) – very sad news if indeed true (and I am very highly confident in the sources).

  23. Munny says:

    stephen sheps,

    Looking at that spectacular 2003 draft, and being mostly in agreement with VOR’s hypothesis, I’d likely take Bergeron 1st overall, ahead of Staal, Suter, Weber, Getzlaf and Fleury. Can’t really go wrong with any of those players, but Bergeron probably gives you the best chance for wins.

  24. russ99 says:

    Cassandra

    That said, I see no way for the math to back up your valuing of defense here

    In a league in which approximately 300 goals are allowed in a season that is a number that is beyond comprehension.For instance in baseball, with around 700 runs a season, the greatest shortstop of all time saved about 20 runs a season.

    There is no way one player in hockey can save 30 goals a season.That’s the range of the difference that goalies make, not players.

    Just because the math is nascent at this point, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

    There’s no way to prove that goalies are the sole or primary factor in goals against, as much comes into play, goalie positioning, goalie position in the crease, location of shooter and puck, open or challenged shot, player screening the goalie, shooter acumen at shooting to open areas of the net, if the defense left an open shooter to pass to, etc. you can’t just chalk all that up to the goalie and (PDO) luck. That runs counter to what the analytics movement is all about, finding empirical answers when the whole story isn’t told.

    So some of us that value skater contributions to reducing goals against value shot quality metrics and drown out the noise on all the shots metrics since there are so many shots, not all shots are the same, even bad shots get in, and how that shots divided in fifths to distill player quality into one fairly arbitrary number doesn’t take into account player strengths and weaknesses. I see HDSC thrown around a lot here and other blogs, but it’s just starting to be accepted.

    Besides, the 80s ideal of score alll you can and let the goalie cover the other side of the ice doesn’t work in today’s systems-heavy daily video scouted league. If there’s a weakness, the opposition will attack it.

    It will all come out soon, when tracking chips are in the pucks and player equipment.

  25. Cassandra says:

    And in terms of Debrincat versus’ Benson. Debrincat just had a 50 point rookie season while putting up a positive +/- on a non-playoff team. Benson was a good junior player and a marginal NHL prospect (not in the top 75 of prospects).

    Who knows what the future holds, but considering the known value Debrincat brings to the table at teh NHL level, it is unreasonable to swing all the unknowns toward Benson.

    I mean seriously, if tomorrow it was announced that the Oilers had traded Benson for Debrincat, this would be universally and reasonably applauded as a steal for the Oilers. We all know this.

    It is reasonable to take the air out of offensive numbers in some cases. But it is not reasonable to attribute defensive value without evidence. In my opinion, the notion of defensive value is often used to justify arbitrary preferences.

  26. meanashell11 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That is too bad. Never wish that on anyone.

  27. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra: Bergeron and Gainey are not the same kind of player at all. The gap between them on the offensive side is a chasm.

    I would buy that Bergeron was better than Middleton even though he scored less. That is plausible. Putting Gainey in the conversation is a dramatic case of over correction.

    Sure, which is why I said ‘split the difference’ and brought up Bergeron.

    Was trying to find a contemporary analogue that sits in between the Gainey type and the Middleton type, a player who brings both scoring and shut-down ability from the F position. Guess I didn’t articulate my position as well as I had hoped. Oh well, so it goes.

  28. Cassandra says:

    russ99: Just because the math is nascent at this point, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

    There’s no way to prove that goalies are the sole or primary factor in goals against, as much comes into play, goalie positioning, goalie position in the crease, location of shooter and puck, open or challenged shot, player screening the goalie, shooter acumen at shooting to open areas of the net, if the defense left an open shooter to pass to, etc. you can’t just chalk all that up to the goalie and (PDO) luck. That runs counter to what the analytics movement is all about, finding empirical answers when the whole story isn’t told.

    So some of us that value skater contributions to reducing goals against value shot quality metrics and drown out the noise on all the shots metrics since there are so many shots, not all shots are the same, even bad shots get in, and how that shots divided in fifths to distill player quality into one fairly arbitrary number doesn’t take into account player strengths and weaknesses. I see HDSC thrown around a lot here and other blogs, but it’s just starting to be accepted.

    Besides, the 80s ideal of score alll you can and let the goalie cover the other side of the ice doesn’t work in today’s systems-heavy daily video scouted league. If there’s a weakness, the opposition will attack it.

    It will all come out soon, when tracking chips are in the pucks and player equipment.

    russ99: Just because the math is nascent at this point, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

    There’s no way to prove that goalies are the sole or primary factor in goals against, as much comes into play, goalie positioning, goalie position in the crease, location of shooter and puck, open or challenged shot, shooter acumen at shooting to open areas of the net, if the defense left an open shooter to pass to, etc. you can’t just chalk all that up the the goalie and (PDO) luck. That runs counter to what the analytics movement is all about, finding empirical answers when the whole storiy isn’t told.

    So some of us that value skater contributions to goals against value shot quality metrics and drown out the noise on all the shots metrics since there are so many shots, not all shots are the same, even bad shots get in, and how that shots divided in fifths to distill player quality into one fairly arbitrary number that doesn’t take into account player strengths and weaknesses.

    The 80s ideal of score alll you can and let the goalie cover the other side of the ice doesn’t work in today’s systems-heavy daily video scouted league. If there’s a weakness, the opposition will attack it.

    It will all come out soon, when tracking chips are in the pucks and player equipment.

    You have misunderstood the point. It isn’t that goalies are solely responsible for defense. It is that the range of outcomes provides the outer limits of how much value one player can contribute on defense. It is a zero sum game. Whatever value you attribute to a player, you have to take away from somewhere else.

    My hypothesis is that offense matters more than defense because it’s marginal value is greater. Vor is suggesting that the marginal value of a defensive player is the same. My suggestion is that there is no way this can be the case given the parameters of the game.

    You are also rather naive on the ability of technology to solve problems that aren’t technical. But that is a treatise for another day.

  29. Cassandra says:

    stephen sheps: Sure, which is why I said ‘split the difference’ and brought up Bergeron.

    Was trying to find a contemporary analogue that sits in between the Gainey type and the Middleton type, a player who brings both scoring and shut-down ability from the F position. Guess I didn’t articulate my position as well as I had hoped. Oh well, so it goes.

    I see Bergeron as a Middleton type player.

    I don’t know what type of player Gainey is. His offensive numbers are so terrible it is hard to find an analogue. On offense he’s Todd Marchant or Andrew Cogliano but with less offense.

  30. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra,

    Love having these back and forth convos with you! Makes me think a bit harder than I want to, but so it goes. I’ll try to address each point one at a time – I think I may just be failing to communicate today. I’m under-caffeinated and in the middle of grading, so I’m definitely not at my best…

    ok, here goes:

    Cassandra: it is unreasonable to swing all the unknowns toward Benson

    Why is it unreasonable when he is an unknown at the professional level at this point? Please help me to see what I’m missing.

    Cassandra: Benson was a good junior player and a marginal NHL prospect (not in the top 75 of prospects).

    in September of 2015, Benson was ranked #14 on TSN’s board.
    By the final Mackenzie list, he was #39 – a precipitous fall to be sure, but I think it’s disingenuous to suggest he wasn’t in the top 75 in his draft year or has fallen that much in just two years.

    (here’s the links, btw: https://www.tsn.ca/elite-prospect-matthews-tops-mckenzie-s-ranking-1.364099

    https://www.tsn.ca/matthews-goes-wire-to-wire-as-tsn-s-top-prospect-1.511597)

    Cassandra: But it is not reasonable to attribute defensive value without evidence.

    Did I do that? I don’t think I did that. If I did, I’m just having a crap day at communicating my ideas and should just get back to grading papers.

  31. Jaxon says:

    dustrock: Oilers won

    If you get #1 or #2 in the lotto you draft Dahlin or Svechnikov. If you get #3, pray that whoever draft#2 passes on Svechnikov (because Russian wingers?) and you draft Svechnikov. If Svechnikov and Dahlin are not available, I’d trade #3 (and a redundant LHD prospect like Caleb Jones? Laggeson?) down to get two first rounders or a pick and some immediate but future-friendly help. Dahlin and Svechnikov have the elite near generational talent that can help them step in and be difference makers instantly. I’m not sold on Zadina (my feels tells me he’s the next Yakupov/Stefan/Daigle).

  32. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra: I see Bergeron as a Middleton type player.

    I don’t know what type of player Gainey is.His offensive numbers are so terrible it is hard to find an analogue.On offense he’s Todd Marchant or Andrew Cogliano but with less offense.

    Ahh, gotcha. I can work with that. Thanks for clarifying.

    (Edit to add: I have a response to your previous post that got caught in moderation jail. Hopefully it gets through LT’s filters, but it definitely wasn’t inappropriate or anything…)

  33. bendelson says:

    Question for the group: If Montreal wanted the #9 to draft Veleno… and they offered Lehkonen (cost controlled), how many of their 4 2nd round picks would they need to include for you to say yes??

  34. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps: Sure, which is why I said ‘split the difference’ and brought up Bergeron.

    Was trying to find a contemporary analogue that sits in between the Gainey type and the Middleton type, a player who brings both scoring and shut-down ability from the F position. Guess I didn’t articulate my position as well as I had hoped. Oh well, so it goes.

    There is no Gainey-type. There is only Bob Gainey. One has to realize when one is looking at a black swan and when one isn’t.

  35. stephen sheps says:

    godot10: One has to realize when one is looking at a black swan and when one isn’t.

    fair point. outliers are a thing. I guess Gainey fits that bill.

  36. godot10 says:

    bendelson:
    Question for the group:If Montreal wanted the #9 to draft Veleno…and they offered Lehkonen (cost controlled), how many of their 4 2nd round picks would they need to include for you to say yes??

    All their second round draft picks for the rest of time.

  37. Jaxon says:

    Has anyone ever heard of anyone who has era adjusted junior hockey stats? Can anyone point me in the right direction for work done in this area?

    I’m trying to build a new stat that uses 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 adjusted to TOI for a Median Top 6 forward in the NHL, Equivalency-adjusted by Canadian Jr League via Vollman’s new numbers and Age-adjusted using Rhys formula. I’d like to try to adjust historical data to era. The only thing I’m missing is the are adjustment to make it more accurate to compare players from Crosby to Hall to McDavid to Svechnikov. I’m close and it’s pretty compelling, at least I think so as it looks fairly accurate against the 5-on-5 primary pts players put up if they make the jump right to the NHL. Many of them are within a point or two of their NHL numbers, with injuries and other factors often helping to explain the outliers.

  38. VOR says:

    Scungilli Slushy: There are reasonable arguments for both players, I’d take Gainey. But then I was a Habs fan pre NHL Oilers.

    Just please Oilers don’t try to draft Gainey, it’s a fool’s gambit, too much of an outlier.

    When drafting, until Vor’s machine lurches to life, you draft the Middletons.

    The interesting thing is the scouting reports actually mention not just what a great defensive player Gainey was but what an outlier he was. Even today I expect scouts would be raving about him. Montreal was the perfect team for Gainey.

    One of the things AIDA keeps telling me is that you have to match the player to the team if you want to optimize your draft.

    If there isn’t a Gainey (an obvious consensus outlier) and he isn’t a perfect fit draft the Middletons.

    Middleton wasn’t a bad fit for what I am talking about either. His scouting reports from junior made it clear he was a 200 foot player. He wasn’t in the same class as Gainey but that defensive acumen made him a much bigger out scorer than his offence suggests.

    I want to restate, Rick Middleton was an outstanding hockey player. He was easily one of the most exciting players I have ever seen play. I was a fan of the player if not his team and I think without the injury there would be much less separation between the two players. He belongs in the Hall of Fame.

    I just think Gainey made a greater positive contribution and I think the larger hockey community agrees with me.

    For me Gainey’s value rested not just in preventing goals against but in how he made the task of winning hockey games easier for his teammates, particularly those who weren’t on ice with him.

    I think Cassandra’s analysis has the gap too big between the two at even strength as other posters have pointed out. But it also ignores the ripple effect of having that elite a defensive forward do the heavy lifting.

    I

  39. dustrock says:

    $2.5m over 2 years for Koskinen makes way more sense and I’d be fine with it.

    Much of the sturm und drang comes from $2.5 per I think.

  40. Glass says:

    Is Boqvist the clear #2 D in this draft?

    Is Hughes the clear favorite over Ty Smith?
    Is Bouchard the clear favorite over Dobson?

    I’d have to say… I think I like Dobson more than Bouchard. Seems like he can be a great 2 way D for us.

  41. dustrock says:

    Glass:
    Is Boqvist the clear #2 D in this draft?

    Is Hughes the clear favorite over Ty Smith?
    Is Bouchard the clear favorite over Dobson?

    I’d have to say… I think I like Dobson more than Bouchard. Seems like he can be a great 2 way D for us.

    Most lists have Hughes as a clear favorite over Smith. I’m not that convinced.

    If you ask me today who I’d pick after Dahlin for D, it’s probably:

    Boqvist
    Hughes/Smith
    Dobson
    Bouchard

    I flip flop on Hughes and Smith, I think Hughes is flashier but Smith has calm feet and plays a smart game.

    I have moved Dobson up over Bouchard because I like his skating and defensive ability more.

    I believe some of the advanced stats have Smith and Dobson ahead of Bouchard on transition and zone entries as well.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Sheps item that was caught in the net is above, 11:38 time stamp.

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra:
    Hockey Reference adjusts stats for era.If you adjust Bergeron’s stats for era he has 9 seasons of being a 60+ player, and 4 seasons of being a 70 + player.Gainey, by contrast has 6 seasons of being a 30 + player.

    Bergeron and Gainey are not the same kind of player at all.The gap between them on the offensive side is a chasm.

    I would buy that Bergeron was better than Middleton even though he scored less.That is plausible.Putting Gainey in the conversation is a dramatic case of over correction.

    Are you old enough to have watched that era?

  44. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Hi LT,

    I look forward to your list every year, I love your draft coverage. Many do it well, you do it better!

    I would prefer you stick to your original intention to put your list out on Monday.

    Thank you for all that you do!

  45. Cassandra says:

    VOR,

    If the gap isn’t 30 goals on offense, what is it? Personally, I think 30 is too low, and ignoring the power play fudges things to Gainey’s benefit.

    I also don’t buy the ripple effect as a thing. That sounds like mystical thinking.

    In order for it to be a thing, Gainey would have to subtract more goals for his defense against better competition than he does against worse competition, relative to his replacement. I don’t see why that would be the case.

  46. Cassandra says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Are you old enough to have watched that era?

    I don’t remember watching either play, though I was old enough, just.

    But that isn’t anymore relevant than someone saying Willie Mays was better than Mike Trout, because they saw them both.

  47. Jaxon says:

    dustrock: Most lists have Hughes as a clear favorite over Smith.I’m not that convinced.

    If you ask me today who I’d pick after Dahlin for D, it’s probably:

    Boqvist
    Hughes/Smith
    Dobson
    Bouchard

    I flip flop on Hughes and Smith, I think Hughes is flashier but Smith has calm feet and plays a smart game.

    I have moved Dobson up over Bouchard because I like his skating and defensive ability more.

    I believe some of the advanced stats have Smith and Dobson ahead of Bouchard on transition and zone entries as well.

    Where do you put this guy?

    https://thehockeywriters.com/2018-nhl-draft-rankings-10-risers-april/
    “Nils Lundkvist (RHD, Sweden, Lulea SHL)
    FEBRUARY RANKING: Not Ranked (outside top 100)

    APRIL RANKING: 24
    VARIATION: +77
    ANALYSIS: Remember this name because Lundkvist is not only rising, he’s soaring up the rankings. He was terrific at the Five Nations tourney, with some scouts saying he was every bit as good, if not better than top-10 prospect Adam Boqvist. That was a coming-out party for Lundkvist, and although he’s unlikely to crack the top 10, he could sneak into the top 20 or even the top 15 similar to Erik Brannstrom last year. Swedish puck-moving defenders are always in demand and Lundkvist could be another good one.”

    Check out @simonsnake70’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simonsnake70/status/971782695100538882?s=09

  48. --hudson-- says:

    Thanks to everyone in this Gainey versus Middleton discussion. Really interesting to follow along.

    A recent example that comes to mind is the Travis Ewanyk pick (round 3, 74th overall in 2011). If I remember correctly, he was credited with shutting down RNH in the WHL playoffs. However for whatever reason his defensive ability hasn’t translated into the higher levels of hockey (not that there is any shame in making it to the ECHL).

    In the next round, the Rangers drafted Michael St. Croix (round 4, 106th overall). Which player was the correct pick?


    A couple other random thoughts:
    – It must be difficult for the scouts to build a consensus draft list using intangibles along with stats.
    – Previously whenever I do my annual fantasy draft I just use LT’s NHLe post, multiply the defense’s NHLe by 2x since they occupy half the number of positions on a team, and run with it. However these posts made me realize I am missing a term for rarity of a player type. If two players NHLe are equivalent this rarity should be a tie-breaker, but perhaps it can be more than that.

    Please keep it going, enjoying this chat.

  49. Jaxon says:

    Also if they’re not drafting in the top 3, I would seriously consider drafting Serron Noel. His numbers are on par with Zadina’s and he is 6’5″, 201lbs. The scouting reports I’ve read, say he is a good skater as well. He and Zadina are basically tied for the 2nd best primary points per minute after Svechnikov. His numbers compare well to players like Draisaitl and Voracek.
    EDIT: PS. He’s also one of the youngest in the draft.
    I have him getting about 23 5-on-5 Primary Pts in his rookie season if he gets median top 6 minutes.

  50. Cassandra says:

    stephen sheps,

    Regarding Benson, what we know is that he isn’t an NHL player right now. I just think it is unreasonable to attribute him defensive value that he hasn’t shown.

    In the same way, I think it is unreasonable to assume that young players always improve.

    In assessing Debrincat and Benson regarding their defensive value the default assumption should be that it is the same.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    bendelson:
    Question for the group:If Montreal wanted the #9 to draft Veleno…and they offered Lehkonen (cost controlled), how many of their 4 2nd round picks would they need to include for you to say yes??

    In this draft I take the pick or am getting a young top level player back for it. 2nd rounders are not likely to be impact players, and that’s what you want to draft or acquire with a lottery pick in a deep draft. Or any first round pick.

  52. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    thanks for letting me out of jail!

    Cassandra,

    Fair points all around. It would be unreasonable to attribute to Benson a skill-set we don’t know he possess. That being said, I don’t think I said anything explicitly about either player’s defensive ability, just that it would be foolish to assume Benson has no value at all.

  53. dustrock says:

    Jaxon: Where do you put this guy?

    https://thehockeywriters.com/2018-nhl-draft-rankings-10-risers-april/
    “Nils Lundkvist (RHD, Sweden, Lulea SHL)
    FEBRUARY RANKING: Not Ranked (outside top 100)

    APRIL RANKING: 24
    VARIATION: +77
    ANALYSIS: Remember this name because Lundkvist is not only rising, he’s soaring up the rankings. He was terrific at the Five Nations tourney, with some scouts saying he was every bit as good, if not better than top-10 prospect Adam Boqvist. That was a coming-out party for Lundkvist, and although he’s unlikely to crack the top 10, he could sneak into the top 20 or even the top 15 similar to Erik Brannstrom last year. Swedish puck-moving defenders are always in demand and Lundkvist could be another good one.”

    Check out @simonsnake70’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simonsnake70/status/971782695100538882?s=09

    I have him late 1st but honestly after about #10 and especially after #15, I think you’ll see teams with wildly different draft lists.

    I like Noel as well. Not sure I take him in the top 10 but he should be top 20 I think.

  54. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra: I don’t remember watching either play, though I was old enough, just.

    But that isn’t anymore relevant than someone saying Willie Mays was better than Mike Trout, because they saw them both.

    Except that Gainey and Middleton played against each other. Why I asked is that at the time Gainey was widely thought the best overall player in the world and Middleton really didn’t get much love. As shown by not yet being in the HOF.

    Being on such a dominant team as Gainey was of course skewed the narrative. At the same time I don’t think such wide regard for Gainey was wrong headed, there was something to it.

  55. WayneKenov says:

    The ripple effect is definitely a thing, and the question is sort of interesting. This is simply a mind exercise, but are you better off with a 1C playing the toughs and outscoring by .5g, or having a 3rd liner saw off? If your third liner can saw off, I would say that would be net benefit, as maybe you can match your 1C lower down and get 1g/60 outscoring. But would that be equivalent to having a 3C who can outscore other 3 lines by 0.5g/60 with the 1C who can outscore by 0.5? I would say they are, so the question becomes about which is easier to aquire.

    Patrice bergeron is such an outlier, he isn’t really a fair comparison for this.

    Let’s use Matt Stajan, who has 1.87GF/60 and 1.18GA/60 for a net +0.69/60 (nice). And he is making 3.375. Let’s say that playing him against the toughs let’s Gaudreau pump out an extra 0.5g/game, so his overall cost is basically 10million for 1.19 g/game worth of effect.

    Together Kefoot and MacKinnon have a net effect of 1.27g/game for 7.75 million. Obviously this is where comparisons are difficult because Mackinnon is clearly underpaid, but I think the point still makes sense that either way is fine, and they are fairly similar.

    So in my mind, I think that it is still about getting and keeping good players. Take whatever comes cheapest. There are clearly difficult to quantify synergistic effects. I’ll add that I think if in theory, both cases cancel out that you should go with offense, since it tends to be hot and cold, and more scorers helps to lower the amplitude of the sine function.

    BTW, you have Eberle putting up some of the best GF/60 numbers in the league at 3.61, but giving a ton back at 2.99. So 0.62 overall.

  56. Cassandra says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Except that Gainey and Middleton played against each other. Why I asked is that at the time Gainey was widely thought the best overall player in the world and Middleton really didn’t get much love. As shown by not yet being in the HOF.

    Being on such a dominant team as Gainey was of course skewed the narrative. At the same time I don’t think such wide regard for Gainey was wrong headed, there was something to it.

    I’ve been around long enough to disregard popular perception as evidence.

    And even if we give credence to it in this case, it runs into the hard fact of the numbers. There is a hard limit on how much value you can give to a single player for their defensive contributions.

  57. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra: I’ve been around long enough to disregard popular perception as evidence.

    And even if we give credence to it in this case, it runs into the hard fact of the numbers.There is a hard limit on how much value you can give to a single player for their defensive contributions.

    I agree that offense has more value than defence.

    The regard I referred to was a little more than popular perception, more like the best hockey minds of the day, and the greatest NHL coach of all time.

    Math has a role and your argument is valid. However math is a recounting of events and it is just as invalid to discount observation by those that understand what they are looking at as it is to discount math and solely rely on the eye test.

    Hockey stats need context, many mistakes in hockey stats have been made using hard math arguments that were out of context and have been proven wrong at this point and are no longer in the conversation.

    The eye test also verified stats that were when they came out said to be wrong or off base, and are now in use as the knowledge of these things moves forward.

    Both need to be used together. In this case I would agree generally with your position, it’s just that one of these players is a rare outlier, and that makes it different than more typical players to me.

    I’d have either guy on the Oilers, they were both great. Middleton was an exciting player to watch. Although what has probably held him back is that he didn’t have quite the level of finishing others did in his day, as was mentioned that he wasn’t a league top scorer.

  58. jtblack says:

    LT: I am all for waiting til Sunday for your Top List. Then we know where every team is slotted, which may add to the discussion – depending how crazy the ping pong balls are.

    Philly went from 11th to 2nd last year? or something close to that.

  59. OmJo says:

    I’m good with waiting until after the draft lottery.

  60. monsterbater4 says:

    LT,

    Two things good sir.

    1) I vote for revealing list just after lottery. It gives us something to chew on during intermissions and Sunday brunch. My favourite time to consume content on this site.
    2) will we see a Stan Weir or other picture in Saturday morning’s post? Has our Stan weir luck run out yet (unlikely) and should another great be used?

    Thanks again for all you do here and at the athletic. It’ll keep me somewhat sane between now and the start of next season

  61. OmJo says:

    LT, if I can make one recommendation for the Lowdown podcasts? Could somebody lower the volume on the audio clips that play in place of the commercials (“You’re listening to the Lowdown with Lowetide… on demand”)?

  62. Jordan says:

    Does anyone know what happened to the lucky tie? I’d really like to know what happened to it. Does Steve still have it? Can he loan it to Peter? Will Peter be willing to wear a tie instead of a track suit?

  63. commonfan29 says:

    Who was better at defensive play:

    A. Gainey, when he was shutting down top opposition whenever he was on the ice with them; or
    B. All the top opposition skaters who were shutting him down whenever he was on the ice with them?

  64. leadfarmer says:

    Glass:
    Is Boqvist the clear #2 D in this draft?

    Is Hughes the clear favorite over Ty Smith?
    Is Bouchard the clear favorite over Dobson?

    I’d have to say… I think I like Dobson more than Bouchard. Seems like he can be a great 2 way D for us.

    There are some really good defensemen in this draft. Someone always slides lower than you expect. I would not trade this pick. We need to rebuild our prospect pool

  65. John Chambers says:

    Can anyone see Patrick Maroon getting more than 2 years @ $3.5M as a UFA?

    I can’t. The lineup of UFA LW’s ahead of him goes: Kane, JVR, Neal, Perron. Maybe Peter can get him back on a longer term with lower AAV with money up front, similar to how Russell’s is structured.

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey LT. Just to give you the heads up, when I search my podcast program for Oilers you’re show comes up, but no one else from 1260. I just assumed they didn’t have podcasts. But when I searched Gregor I found his podcast. You may want to give someone the heads up.

  67. Oilin4 says:

    John Chambers:
    Can anyone see Patrick Maroon getting more than 2 years @ $3.5M as a UFA?

    I can’t. The lineup of UFA LW’s ahead of him goes: Kane, JVR, Neal, Perron. Maybe Peter can get him back on a longer term with lower AAV with money up front, similar to how Russell’s is structured.

    If the return at the deadline for him reflects his perceived value rather than something else (such as Chai-pet’s apt negotiating skills), suggests could get him for this or less. Maybe 2×3 or even 3×3.

  68. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    Can anyone see Patrick Maroon getting more than 2 years @ $3.5M as a UFA?

    I can’t. The lineup of UFA LW’s ahead of him goes: Kane, JVR, Neal, Perron. Maybe Peter can get him back on a longer term with lower AAV with money up front, similar to how Russell’s is structured.

    Why would you want a 2nd Lucic on a long term contract?

    If Maroon wants to come back on a one year deal for $2 million, I don’t have a problem with that necessarily. But I don’t really get the point of how that would advance things in the least.

  69. Lowetide says:

    OmJo:
    LT, if I can make one recommendation for the Lowdown podcasts? Could somebody lower the volume on the audio clips that play in place of the commercials (“You’re listening to the Lowdown with Lowetide… on demand”)?

    I will pass along, also thanks Jimmy will pass along as well. I never know if people listen to the podcasts and post here, nice to know!

  70. Doug McLachlan says:

    John Chambers:
    Can anyone see Patrick Maroon getting more than 2 years @ $3.5M as a UFA?

    I can’t. The lineup of UFA LW’s ahead of him goes: Kane, JVR, Neal, Perron. Maybe Peter can get him back on a longer term with lower AAV with money up front, similar to how Russell’s is structured.

    That would seem fair but on that point, I came across this on the twitter today:

    EvolvingWild‏ @EvolvingWild

    The first run of our contract projections for this offseason can be found here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vVxrRP-C59WkWJxtqzHpxg0WP5evst91USuyWTlE1NY/edit#gid=1677718147

    Many of the top end numbers looked a little low to me – well the idea that Tavares would take less than Eichel money raised an eyebrow – but thought that there seemed to be some merit to the algorithm they are running.

    Interestingly he has R.Strome coming in under $2.5M but Maroon he calculates out at almost $4.

    BTW, he must have done this before the Rattie signing as he has Ty getting $866K instead of the $800K he ended up taking.

  71. russ99 says:

    Doug McLachlan: That would seem fair but on that point, I came across this on the twitter today:

    EvolvingWild‏ @EvolvingWild

    The first run of our contract projections for this offseason can be found here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vVxrRP-C59WkWJxtqzHpxg0WP5evst91USuyWTlE1NY/edit#gid=1677718147

    Many of the top end numbers looked a little low to me – well the idea that Tavares would take less than Eichel money raised an eyebrow – but thought that there seemed to be some merit to the algorithm they are running.

    Interestingly he has R.Strome coming in under $2.5M but Maroon he calculates out at almost $4.

    BTW, he must have done this before the Rattie signing as he has Ty getting $866K instead of the $800K he ended up taking.

    Interesting list. Lot us of useful players under the $1.5M mark, hope Chia does some second/third week FA shopping there.

  72. OmJo says:

    Lowetide: I will pass along, also thanks Jimmy will pass along as well. I never know if people listen to the podcasts and post here, nice to know!

    Thanks!

    Yeah the podcasts are the only way I can tune in most days – usually in class between 10-12. You and Tyler do an awesome job on the show.

  73. VOR says:

    Cassandra,

    I thought I owed you a more detailed explanation of why I think Bob Gainey was better than Rick Middleton. I haven’t even begun to develop that argument but I did stumble on something odd.

    I started with one of the strangest years of Gainey’s career 1979-1980 (on paper it looks like it is his worst but he won the Selke) and using contemporaneous records and NHL.com and hockey reference I am rebuilding data for the Canadiens with and without Gainey in the lineup.

    The Canadiens in this year cratered when he was out of the lineup. Yet he only had 9 even strength goals in 64 games and was minus 2. I am assuming it is a small sample size anomaly or somebody else was out in the same games but I have them going 4-10-2 without him. This is a team that had 107 points. I am now going game by game to see if he was out of the lineup the games media reports claim he was.

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Marleau and Marner are tremendous players.

    The Bruins are using set strategies to great effect. I hope the Oilers start doing this. They have the talent, they need to do this to increase pace and open looks and let the skill take over.

    Young team, high talent, simple plan until they are more game mature.

  75. RonnieB says:

    Doug McLachlan: That would seem fair but on that point, I came across this on the twitter today:

    EvolvingWild‏ @EvolvingWild

    The first run of our contract projections for this offseason can be found here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vVxrRP-C59WkWJxtqzHpxg0WP5evst91USuyWTlE1NY/edit#gid=1677718147

    Many of the top end numbers looked a little low to me – well the idea that Tavares would take less than Eichel money raised an eyebrow – but thought that there seemed to be some merit to the algorithm they are running.

    Interestingly he has R.Strome coming in under $2.5M but Maroon he calculates out at almost $4.

    BTW, he must have done this before the Rattie signing as he has Ty getting $866K instead of the $800K he ended up taking.

    Max Domi is worth over $4.5 after back to back 9-goal seasons ? Do they think Chiareli is negotiating his contract ?

  76. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Marchand took a dive IMO trying to draw a penalty, should have made sure the puck was safe.

    Too much gamesmanship, win with honour.

    .The right reason to care about ‘character’.

  77. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    Dave Keon mention on CBC, drink!

  78. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    I’m not watching the Boston-leafs (spits) game, but based on the goals-to-shots ratio, the goalies are sucking the hind banana…
    More specifically, Rask…

    Dammit Boston! Please beat the leafs… you had a 3-1 series lead ffs!

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilin4: If the return at the deadline for him reflects his perceived value rather than something else (such as Chai-pet’s apt negotiating skills), suggests could get him for this or less. Maybe 2×3 or even 3×3.

    There is an OK chance that deal turns out great – Marody has game. I watched 3 Michigan games after the trade and he was impressive – also did well during his short stint in Bakersfield.

    Not sure bet, obviously, however, he’s a real prospect.

  80. digger50 says:

    Jaxon:
    Also if they’re not drafting in the top 3, I would seriously consider drafting Serron Noel. His numbers are on par with Zadina’s and he is 6’5″, 201lbs. The scouting reports I’ve read, say he is a good skater as well. He and Zadina are basically tied for the 2nd best primary points per minute after Svechnikov. His numbers compare well to players like Draisaitl and Voracek.
    EDIT: PS. He’s also one of the youngest in the draft.
    I have him getting about 23 5-on-5 Primary Pts in his rookie season if he gets median top 6 minutes.

    Noel was looking really good. Someone is getting a good player there.

  81. digger50 says:

    godot10: Why would you want a 2nd Lucic on a long term contract?

    If Maroon wants to come back on a one year deal for $2 million, I don’t have a problem with that necessarily.But I don’t really get the point of how that would advance things in the least.

    I would welcome Maroon back.

    He knows his game, he keeps it simple and he’s good for 20 goals. He is not another Lucic on the team, that’s a separate problem.

    Top line of Nuge and Connor need the right type of help. Rattie could be along for the ride like many others but there are only so many “skill” goals to go around. That line needs someone in front of the net to screen and put away rebounds.

    The other thing is – we dont just need a winger and Maroon is the guy, we need two wingers. Maroon just to get back to even and another good player to get ahead.

    And the alternative is another Rattie, Pontus. Caggiula signed. Maybe two. That won’t be enough.

  82. Lowetide says:

    Bruins tie it but they are absolutely the second best team on the ice in Boston tonight.

  83. @DraftLook says:

    I think Jesperi Kotkaniemi is an intriguing option if the Oilers get leapfrogged in the draft order. Can play both centre and wing, so some versatility is present. Has been really good in Finland with 29 points in 27 games against men. 18th in League/Age Adjusted PPG for draft-eligible skaters (all data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19qu7-zzgnIRL6XYeeQpzL37gTqSxaXvwyyVfNQ1HfA4, i adjust it nyself using NHLe and age adjustments numbers from Rob Vollman and Ian Tulloch)

    If they stay at 9th Ty Smith is probably the way to go, although Bouchard wouldn’t hurt either. I’d personally like to see them stay asay from Noah Dobson, I think there are better options in the top 15 than Dobson. Veleno has dropped so far that he could potentially be a steal in that 10-15 range as well.

    Jonatan Berggren has got to be the target in round two. He deserves to go top 20 IMO. 6th in League/Age Adjusted Scoring. Nils Lundkvist would be a fantastic pick as well. He plays similar to Adam Boqvist, and has 1st round talent as well. Niklas Nordgren is an intriguing option too. 5th in League-Age Adjusted Scoring, and is lighting it up at the U18s right now for Finland.

  84. Munny says:

    Jake now has 3 more career playoff goals than dad Louie, in his first series.

  85. Munny says:

    Lowetide:
    Bruins tie it but they are absolutely the second best team on the ice in Boston tonight.

    Gotta play 60.

  86. Andy Dufresne says:

    Remember Frederik Andersen when he played with Ahaheim.

    He looked so strong at times and then would collapse/let in a weak goal or two when it mattered most.

    Dont want to kick a guy when hes down….but his play in this game reminds me of so many performances with Anaheim.

    He did win the Jennings in 15-16. But Anaheim decided to trade him anyways and keep Gibbons.

  87. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    Bruins tie it but they are absolutely the second best team on the ice in Boston tonight.

    Is that based on Possesion? Because the two teams look even to me with Bruins with the slight edge in possession. Both goalies looking bad.

  88. Andy Dufresne says:

    Auston Matthews looks like half the player Draisaitl was in last years playoffs. Playing Injured?

    He just lost about $8 million. Instead of $11.5million x 8 he’ll get $10.5 Million x 8. The reverse Draisaitl effect.

  89. Andy Dufresne says:

    Does Billionaire Robert Kraft only own one shirt?

  90. Andy Dufresne says:

    I know a lot of people like higher scoring games, as do I. But several of the goals in this game looked cheap. Kind of distracts from the quality of the game for me.

    Entertaining game but missing that high end playoff quality. (especially for a game 7)

  91. Andy Dufresne says:

    Sure wish the Leafs org/fans were more likable….its hard cheering against a Canadian team.

  92. flyfish1168 says:

    the hockey world can rest now.

  93. Andy Dufresne says:

    Leaky Rask against Leaky Vasilevskiy should be entertaining.

  94. Andy Dufresne says:

    Heavy Hockey wins out again.

  95. Andy Dufresne says:

    Happy for Louie DeBrusk

  96. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Awesome! Leafs fall apart in the final hour. Just like the last time Boston beat them!

  97. Andy Dufresne says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Awesome! Leafs fall apart in the final hour. Just like the last time Boston beat them!

    Its officially a trend.

    AND part of the bigger trend…….Fifty ONE years and counting.

  98. Andy Dufresne says:

    Vegas Golden Knights going to Hoist Stanley. Book it!

  99. Andy Dufresne says:

    Doug McLachlan: That would seem fair but on that point, I came across this on the twitter today:

    EvolvingWild‏ @EvolvingWild

    The first run of our contract projections for this offseason can be found here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vVxrRP-C59WkWJxtqzHpxg0WP5evst91USuyWTlE1NY/edit#gid=1677718147

    Many of the top end numbers looked a little low to me – well the idea that Tavares would take less than Eichel money raised an eyebrow – but thought that there seemed to be some merit to the algorithm they are running.

    Interestingly he has R.Strome coming in under $2.5M but Maroon he calculates out at almost $4.

    BTW, he must have done this before the Rattie signing as he has Ty getting $866K instead of the $800K he ended up taking.

    has Max Domi and William Karlsson at the same number (4.5 million) Enough Said.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Now that the 1st round is over and they can finalize the 2nd round schedule, I assume we’ll have a definitive time for the lottery reveal soon.

  101. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Now that the 1st round is over and they can finalize the 2nd round schedule, I assume we’ll have a definitive time for the lottery reveal soon.

    ROn McLean said it is happening prior to the Saturday evening game on CBC

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Does Billionaire Robert Kraft only own one shirt?

    Probably.

  103. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Vegas Golden Knights going to Hoist Stanley. Book it!

    Screw that! Go Sharks!!! If Vegas pulls off the ultimate Cinderella story and wins in their first season, I call shenanigans against the NHL… that should have been McDavid and the Oilers!!! It’s like the hockey gods decided to flip the script as a joke…

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Heavy Hockey wins out again.

    I’m not sure the Bruins are ‘heavy’. A very structured and disciplined game, a lot of Duck flavoured jerkism, and non stop compete. And smller skilled players.

    Sort of what Chia is trying to build again.

    Really that’s Oiler 80’s hockey, minus the structure because era.

    I hope that’s how the modern Oilers play. IF they do their talent will take them over the top.

  105. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m not sure the Bruins are ‘heavy’. A very structured and disciplined game, a lot of Duck flavoured jerkism, and non stop compete. And smller skilled players.

    Sort of what Chia is trying to build again.

    Really that’s Oiler 80’s hockey, minus the structure because era.

    I hope that’s how the modern Oilers play. IF they do their talent will take them over the top.

    Agreed.

    IMO It is possible for Kailer Yamamoto to play heavy hockey.

  106. WayneKenov says:

    Andy Dufresne: says:
    April 25, 2018 at 8:16 pm

    None soon. Word is Belichick is pissed that he forced him to trade Garoppolo before Brady. Allegedly he is gtfo, which is why he traded Garoppolo for so little. Plus for the first time ever he said he would refer his coordinators for jobs elsewhere. Allegedly he was also in a big feud about it with Brady during the super bowl, to the point that they weren’t talking to eachother. Interesting story anyway.

  107. Andy Dufresne says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Screw that! Go Sharks!!! If Vegas pulls off the ultimate Cinderella story and wins in their first season, I call shenanigans against the NHL… that should have been McDavid and the Oilers!!! It’s like the hockey gods decided to flip the script as a joke…

    Can you imagine that Parade down The Strip !?!

  108. N64 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian:
    Awesome! Leafs fall apart in the final hour. Just like the last time Boston beat them!

    Quelle surprise. 4 unanswered Game 7 after 40. #springcomposting

  109. Andy Dufresne says:

    N64: #springcomposting

    HAHA…….. #springcomposting……. took me a minute.

  110. Andy Dufresne says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Screw that! Go Sharks!!! If Vegas pulls off the ultimate Cinderella story and wins in their first season, I call shenanigans against the NHL… that should have been McDavid and the Oilers!!! It’s like the hockey gods decided to flip the script as a joke…

    Welcome to the Parity Era.

    Parity = more $$$ for Billionaires

    Its only illegal to rig games IF you rig games illegally.

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed.

    IMO It is possible for Kailer Yamamoto to play heavy hockey.

    And he shouldn’t try. Crazy good stick, loads of speed and quickness, deception, and constant attack. And finish, a lot.

  112. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: And he shouldn’t try. Crazy good stick, loads of speed and quickness, deception, and constant attack. And finish, a lot.

    Id prefer he was more Brad Marchand than Tyler Johnson….but Id be happy with either.

  113. jp says:

    dustrock:
    $2.5m over 2 years for Koskinen makes way more sense and I’d be fine with it.

    Much of the sturm und drang comes from $2.5 per I think.

    Not directly related to your post, and it’s probably already been mentioned by others in recent days. But have folks noticed Koskinen’s playoff/international numbers?

    I saw his recent regular season .915 and .916 SV%s as obvious red flags. But damn 2016 W. Championship best goalie with 1.13GAA/.947SV%, and 1.62/.932 at the Olympics.

    And in 5 KHL seasons he’s played at least 10 games every playoffs (>15 the last 4), with a sub 2.00 GAA every year and a stellar SV%. KHL champ twice.

    By year: 1.98/.928, 1.61/.936, 1.47/.949, 1.64/.938, 1.62/.935. Damned impressive numbers.

    Not sure about fair cost, but this fellow is worth another look at the NHL level for sure.

  114. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Id prefer he was more Brad Marchand than Tyler Johnson….but Id be happy with either.

    I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, no honour there. I’m not a win at any cost type.

    I am a win all the time type however, but it doesn’t have to devolve into the unsavoury for that to happen.

  115. Andy Dufresne says:

    jp: Not directly related to your post, and it’s probably already been mentioned by others in recent days. But have folks noticed Koskinen’s playoff/international numbers?

    I saw his recent regular season .915 and .916 SV%s as obvious red flags. But damn 2016 W. Championship best goalie with 1.13GAA/.947SV%, and 1.62/.932 at the Olympics.

    And in 5 KHL seasons he’s played at least 10 games every playoffs (>15 the last 4), with a sub 2.00 GAA every year and a stellar SV%. KHL champ twice.

    By year: 1.98/.928, 1.61/.936, 1.47/.949, 1.64/.938, 1.62/.935. Damned impressive numbers.

    Not sure about fair cost, but this fellow is worth another look at the NHL level for sure.

    Stauffer mentioned on his show two days ago that the report was in error said he wouldnt say if it was the Player or the Price or the Term that was inncorrect. He then wnet on to talk about Euros for about 5 minutes

    2.5 million Euros x approx 1.4 = $3.5 million divided by two equals $1.75 million AVV. Thats my guess.

  116. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, no honour there. I’m not a win at any cost type

    I am a win all the time type however, but it doesn’t have to devolve into the unsavoury for that to happen.

    I can respect that. But at least 4 of the Oilers 5 Stanleys were of the “wind at any cost” variety. Im old school that way I guess.
    Mark Messier and many others were unsavoury.

  117. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Yeah that makes sense, guess there’ll be an official announcement before long.

    There’s risk here, but the upside is certainly more than with Montoya and most of the available NHL guys.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: I can respect that. But at least 4 of the Oilers 5 Stanleys were of the “wind at any cost” variety. Im old school that way I guess.

    Yes that’s a good point, but remember that the league was different then, and the only way to stop outright violence was to be able to be outright violent.

    Different times. Much less push back needed now that the Broadstreet Bullies and Scott ‘I’ve never seen a head I wouldn’t hunt’ Stevens are finished.

    Those Oilers changed North American hockey to what it is now.

  119. Andy Dufresne says:

    jp:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Yeah that makes sense, guess there’ll be an official announcement before long.

    There’s risk here, but the upside is certainly more than with Montoya and most of the available NHL guys.

    AND Montoya could be kept in the AHL at a cost of only $40K to our cap. Nice to have 3 options?

  120. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Yes that’s a good point, but remember that the league was different then, and the only way to stop outright violence was to be able to be outright violent.

    Different times. Much less push back needed now that the Broadstreet Bullies and Scott ‘I’ve never seen a head I wouldn’t hunt’ Stevens are finished.

    Those Oilers changed North American hockey to what it is now.

    ALL True.

  121. WayneKenov says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I guess. Would be nice to have more big boy leagues to put prospect goalies in. Guess Skinner goes back to junior. Ellis probably gonzo. Brossoit aussi, though as down as we are on him, I think he’s not that far off. So that would put it as Starett and Montoya in Bakersfield and Wells on life support in the ECHL.

  122. hunter1909 says:

    “But we can’t return them to junior. They won’t be challenged. Let’s stick their still soft boned teenaged bodies in full grown Men’s leagues.” lol

  123. deardylan says:

    LT wrote…”I have completed the Top 120 list, planned to publish it on Monday. Would you like to see it before or after the lottery? Let me know. I can publish tomorrow of Friday morning if that works”

    My vote is for Friday morning.

    I follow your podcast when something mysterious comes up like “Red Wine Summits” then I jump in to your casts to see if anything juicy.

    FREEFLOW DRAFT ON TAP

    Is That Oilers Logo Behind Card 1, 2, 3?

    This draft is just another moment of an Oilers season of suspense and suspension.

    Maple Leafs vs. Boston series reminds me of the Oilers how they both strum excitement and desperation strings in rapid unexpected chord changes.

    PS. New Trading Strategy.

    #1 Keep Connor Happy. Ask him who he compares himself to and then trade for that guy to play on his line.

    Connor McDavid, C, Erie Otters (OHL) – Who is the NHL player your play would most likely be compared to: “Tyler Bozak because he is a good skater and is more of a pass-first type of guy.”

    Wonder if Leafs and Oilers will do any deals together and any ex T.O. players for pickup?

  124. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: I will pass along, also thanks Jimmy will pass along as well. I never know if people listen to the podcasts and post here, nice to know!

    I also would like the volume tuned in that way, no other complaints, very much enjoy the work you (and Tyler) do,

    I noticed Jonatan Berggren when I was watching J20 stuff for Boqvist. Steve K’s blurb makes him sound like Arvidsson.

    Speaking of Boqvist, I’m upset he played so well at the U18’s! I was getting the feeling he might end up being the 4th defenceman selected, for a variety of reasons, and thus would be available for the Oilers in the unlikely event they don’t win a lottery.

    VOR and others IRT my Couturier comments:

    I stand by my original statement, Sean Couturier is a fantastically talented offensive player, I don’t care about his sub-40 point seasons.

    He had 41 goals and 96 point in 68 games in his 16/17 year old season.

    Where’d it go until now in the NHL?

    In 2015-16 he had almost exactly the same rate of 5v5 pts/60, but played almost 400 less minutes.

    Yeah.

    His most common linemates then were Micheal Raffl at 369 minutes, Wayne Simmonds* at 332, and Matt Read at 280.

    *note about Wayne Simmonds: I know he likely has fans here, but the man does not produce very much at evens.

    Couturier also was getting all of the dangerous faceoffs you could give him.

    The caveat that’s there when I say ‘if you’re good defensively, you’ll also score” is that most of the time when these guys /don’t/ score, it’s because of usage, not because they’re highly gifted at the defensive side of the game exclusively.

    For all but a few NHL players, there is a set of deployment standards than can slash their production totals by at least 50%. Couturier’s no exception.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sportsnet release says lotter picks 15-4 will be unveiled during Hockey Central, prior to first game on Saturday. Picks 3-1 will be revealed DURING THE 2ND INTERMISSION OF THE VEGAS/SAN JOSE GAME

  126. Tapdog says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Just can’t say it straight out but……….No logo at 9
    please please please Mr Weir………

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    Glass:
    Is Boqvist the clear #2 D in this draft?

    Is Hughes the clear favorite over Ty Smith?
    Is Bouchard the clear favorite over Dobson?

    I’d have to say… I think I like Dobson more than Bouchard. Seems like he can be a great 2 way D for us.

    No. (some have Hughes over Boqvist)
    Yes. (Hughes is up with Boqvist on most lists)
    No. (they trade spots on every list I see. No consensus)

    Personally, I like Bouchard better than Dobson. What he achieved this year on a stripped Knights roster is nothing short of incredible. Dobson played with skill players in a lesser league and didn’t post anywhere near the offence Bouchard did.

  128. Jethro Tull says:

    Wilde: I stand by my original statement, Sean Couturier is a fantastically talented offensive player, I don’t care about his sub-40 point seasons.

    By your own definitions, Ryan Strome is better then Cooter.

  129. Wilde says:

    Jethro Tull: By your own definitions, Ryan Strome isbetter then Cooter.

    Want to try again?

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Also if they’re not drafting in the top 3, I would seriously consider drafting Serron Noel. His numbers are on par with Zadina’s and he is 6’5″, 201lbs. The scouting reports I’ve read, say he is a good skater as well. He and Zadina are basically tied for the 2nd best primary points per minute after Svechnikov. His numbers compare well to players like Draisaitl and Voracek.
    EDIT: PS. He’s also one of the youngest in the draft.
    I have him getting about 23 5-on-5 Primary Pts in his rookie season if he gets median top 6 minutes.

    I don’t think anyone has Noel higher than 21. Are you suggesting we take him at 9/10?

  131. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Wanting the Leafs to lose is like a default setting. Last night was joyous. Another chapter.

    On my Oilers-fandom pie chart, there is a healthy slice dedicated to shoving victory the face of Leafs Nation.

    Now I live in the east. Count me as one Oiler fan who will be praying the lotto balls don’t fall in favour of Edmonton. When 97 lifts his fist Stanley Cup, there isn’t a soul out here who will think it fully legitimate and honestly earned if he passes it to Dahlin.

    I honestly wonder if I will too.

  132. €√¥£€^$ says:

    ArmchairGM: No. (some have Hughes over Boqvist)
    Yes. (Hughes is up with Boqvist on most lists)
    No. (they trade spots on every list I see. No consensus)

    Personally, I like Bouchard better than Dobson. What he achieved this year on a stripped Knights roster is nothing short of incredible. Dobson played with skill players in a lesser league and didn’t post anywhere near the offence Bouchard did.

    It would be interesting to see the stats Dobson vs Bouchard since the New Year after London had traded away a couple high-end forwards who were carrying the offense.

    I did a comparison of their draft-year rosters Dobson vs Chychryn and Chychryn was surrounded by NHL draft picks, Dobson not so much. And Dobson’s numbers are superior.

    Dobson is very intriguing. Also 20 yr old LHD Galipeau has put up >1pt/game after coming over in a trade and put up 15 pts (4 goals) in 14 playoff games vs Dobson’s 9 (1 goal). I think Dobson’s just scratching the surface, whereas Bouchard is at his peak. That being said it is possible that Bouchard might be ready for prime time now and Dobson is a few yrs away…

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Now I live in the east. Count me as one Oiler fan who will be praying the lotto balls don’t fall in favour of Edmonton. When 97 lifts his fist Stanley Cup, there isn’t a soul out here who will think it fully legitimate and honestly earned if he passes it to Dahlin.

    I honestly wonder if I will too.

    The statement above is factually incorrect – this soul, typing this message, will absolutely think its legit and honestly earned.

    As we’ve seen, high picks alone don’t lead to Stanley Cup champions, or even good hockey teams.

    This isn’t the NBA where a star player or two can win championships with a weak supporting cast.

    Even a well built team with superstars needs to fight a 2 month battle to win the Cup.

    Are the Pens’ championships legit? I mean, they drafted Crosby and Malkin back to back – with Fleury, Stall, Whitney, etc. in a short period of time.

  134. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “isn’t a soul” less factually incorrect, more just simple hyperbole.

    Having sat in front of many a pitcher of beer with a bunch of Leafs fans, as a lone orange sheep at some TO sports bar, I can attest, they have already discounted the Oilers’ legitimacy. Its not fair or based on fact or history or evidence. It just is. It helps them cope with the past 50 -51- years.

    In some sense, who cares what they think. And the cup will still get a banner, if it comes. And in 51 years I will get to count the cup as one more Oilers cup…

    But when the Oilers win, I want to look in their face and see the type of envy that is forged only because of some involuntary but undeniable respect. Another Oilers #1 pick only further undermines what has already been established by most fans outside Edmonton: Unworthy, handed opportunity on a silver platter and squandered time and time again, much like the resource from which the team is named.

    This won’t get much traction from people on this extremely rational blog, but I do not look forward to the morning after an Oiler lotto win.

  135. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    I want to see some evidence that this team is prepared to construct a competitive team with the best player on the planet since Wayne Gretzky before it is gifted the next Bobby Orr by some ironic and malicious hockey god.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “isn’t a soul” less factually incorrect, more just simple hyperbole.

    Having sat in front of many a pitcher of beer with a bunch of Leafs fans, as a lone orange sheep at some TO sports bar, I can attest, they have already discounted the Oilers’ legitimacy. Its not fair or based on fact or history or evidence. It just is. It helps them cope with the past 50 -51- years.

    In some sense, who cares what they think. And the cup will still get a banner, if it comes. And in 51 years I will get to count the cup as one more Oilers cup…

    But when the Oilers win, I want to look in their face and see the type of envy that is forged only because of some involuntary but undeniable respect. Another Oilers #1 pick only further undermines what has already been established by most fans outside Edmonton: Unworthy, handed opportunity on a silver platter and squandered time and time again, much like the resource from which the team is named.

    This won’t get much traction from people on this extremely rational blog, but I do not look forward to the morning after an Oiler lotto win.

    Doesn’t matter to me one iota what any fan of another team thinks of a potential Oiler Stanley Cup win – it won’t effect my personal emotion in connection with the championship at all.

    I’m not in it to have bragging rights over, or shove it in the face of, those in my life that cheer for other teams – I’m in it for me.

  137. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thats fair. For me, part of being “in it for me” is what it allows me to leverage over Torontonians.

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