May Day

We could see some transaction action today, including a goalie signed and a winger exiting. The Edmonton Oilers, based on what we know, are attempting to thread the needle. Bringing in three major pieces (puck mover on defense, substantial backup goalie, a winger) without much cap room and with little in assets to trade is a gigantic ask for one summer. Hold on!

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

CURRENT 50-MAN

The Oilers are actually at 31 names (plus the slide rules) but I’ve included all of the restricted players who are likely to return. Lots of space on the 50-man, and today I would like to begin the conversation about defensemen who could be acquired this summer. Puck movers, we prefer righties. Here’s the first 10.

  1. RD Erik Karlsson, Ottawa. The impossible dream. He’s $6.5 million times one, Edmonton probably has to offer Leon Draisaitl or some such and the limited number of years on the deal make it a nonstarter, in my opinion.
  2. RD Kris Letang, Pittsburgh. Major dollars ($7.25 million times five), has had some health issues. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a bunch of expensive rfa’s to sign so could easily retain him.
  3. RD Tyson Barrie, Colorado. We are now reaching the realm of the possible, Barrie’s contract is $5.5 times three years. Colorado has no money issues so it would have to be a trade for value.
  4. LD Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia. A great contract ($4.5 million times six years) and impressive offense (65 points this year) mean he’s not going anywhere. I included him because this is a list of targets, he is one.
  5. RD John Carlson, Free Agent. What’s his number? $7 million times seven years? He would be a fantastic fit, but Edmonton doesn’t have the cash. If they did, the McDavid appeal might be enough to get him. Seriously.
  6. RD Matt Dumba, Minnesota. This is the first option that makes sense on all levels but the Oilers don’t have the assets to make it happen. Can you cobble together a trade option that makes sense for Dumba? Depends on the ask from the Wild but I think they would be looking for a top end forward coming back.
  7. RD Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo. He’s signed ($5.4 million times five) so you could trade Oscar Klefbom for him and align the left-right balance. I don’t want to trade Oscar and Ristolainen’s player card has some wobble (although he’s clearly talented). That said, if the Oilers dealt Klefbom for Ristolainen, you could see the logic.
  8. RD Dougie Hamilton, Calgary. Makes $5.75 million times four and there are rumors out there that he might be available this summer. No chance in hell the Flames trade him to Edmonton and a three-way deal is unlikely.
  9. RD Ryan Pulock, NY Islanders. He’s an RFA ($863,333) and owns a monster shot. Two worries: He’s not really a No. 2 RHD, so he would be replacing Matt Benning. Also, Garth Snow has done well when dealing in trade with Peter Chiarelli.
  10. RD Justin Faulk, Carolina. He’s earning $4.833 million times three, and has two-way ability. His underlying numbers aren’t fabulous, and for that price you’d like to add a more complete talent.

The Koskinen deal sounds done, just a matter of announcing it. I spoke to Jason Gregor on the Lowdown yesterday, some vagueness around the contract length (one or two years?) and cap hit ($2 million? $2.5 million) per year. All will be revealed but it sounds like another Chiarelli daredevil bet.

As for Slepyshev, I wrote about him yesterday at The Athletic, this should have been a far more successful relationship. If he does sign in the KHL, that’s one more thing Edmonton has to do this summer at less than $1 million.

Skinner’s stock has been on the rise since being dealt to Speedy Creek, and one wonders if the organization will sign him and bring him to pro in the fall. Koskinen plus Skinner added to Cam Talbot, Al Montoya, Shane Starrett and Dylan Wells means a full boat for goalies, and means Laurent Brossoit and Nick Ellis are down the road. I think we’ll see more movement at the position over the summer. If they’re hiring Viveiros, it’ll be for his offensive brain/power play. Estephan is a fine prospect.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A full boat and great guests for Tuesday morning, 10am on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. What to do with Jesse Puljujarvi and would John trade Oscar Klefbom for Risto Ristalainen.
  • Jay Ball, FC Edmonton. Huge weekend for the Eddies and there’s more to come.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. The NHL offseason train starts rolling, playoffs offer four interesting matchups for the second round.
  • Josh Lewenberg, TSN. If the Raptors beat the Cavs, will is be a shocker?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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278 Responses to "May Day"

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  1. jtblack says:

    Well last year PC did nothing and we know how that worked out.

    This summer he is going to makes trades and acquisitions.

    The question is: Can he win some deals for a change?

  2. Andy Dufresne says:

    rickithebear:
    Strong HD & 0% corsi d in top 15 sum total EVA last 2 years
    Josi 50 EVA
    Doughty 50
    Hedman 47

    Top 30 EVA
    Suter 44
    Sturgeon 41
    Manson 40

    Top 45
    Muezzin 37
    Braun 35
    Schmidt 34
    Cole 34 UFA
    Chara 33

    Top 60 EVA
    Zlasic 33
    Edholm 32
    De Haan 30 UFA
    Engelland 30
    Ellis 30
    Brodie 29

    Top80 EVA
    Hainsey 28
    Russell 26
    Stralmann 25
    Larsson 24
    C. Miller 24

    Top 100 EVA
    Dumoulin 23
    Sekera 23
    Lindholm 23
    Sbisa 22
    K. Miller 22

    Even offence with brutal defence is shit GMing!

    Pick from that list!
    Period!

    Klefbom (based on good contract) for Ryan Ellis

    Ricki, what would you give up along with Kelfbom to get Ryan Ellis?

    Klefbom + what? for Ryan Ellis?

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It would be extremely risky to sign an average starter in his 30’s to anything but a cheap short contract and Talbot will get more, they have to move on.

    Talbot Benning 10th prospect for #1 and Risto!

  4. GCW_69 says:

    I am constantly surprised Severson doesn’t get on these lists.

    As long as Hynes is coach, there is a possible trade there. Severson isn’t a good fit there if the coach prefers vatanen and butcher.

  5. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: This is an unnecessary risk. PC always does things that make me think “he better be right” and the problem is he hasn’t been right enough. Not close. That’s $1 million + out the door he can’t afford. The only conclusion a reasonable person can reach is there’s a moneyed player from the roster heading out.

    I think the management audit looked at three main causes for the disaster that was this last season and at the very top of their list was goal tending. Second was special teams and a close third was injuries. I believe that for this reason the Oiler brain trust has decided to get a goalie. It is somewhat significant that they got one on a one year contract. The fact that the head coach was not removed also seems to indicate that there are restraints on Chiarelli and we now have management by committee!

  6. VOR says:

    Doug McLachlan: Lets put some markers down.

    If you are good with going into next season with Montoya and some combination of the prospect G as your Talbot back-up, fine, but say so.

    If not, let me know who you think we could have gotten instead.What would be the term and what would be the AAV?

    I am sure we overpaid and sure we took on a risk but the differential is the difference from Montoya so we paid $1.4M more for a goalie that may or may not be an improvement on what we have.

    Carter Hutton $1,500,000 per annum for 2 years. Don’t get me wrong love this signing but Hutton would present a less expensive, less risky bet. Or Francouz, more risk, more upside, probably same money.

  7. jtblack says:

    rickithebear:
    Strong HD & 0% corsi d in top 15 sum total EVA last 2 years
    Josi 50 EVA
    Doughty 50
    Hedman 47

    Top 30 EVA
    Suter 44
    Sturgeon 41
    Manson 40

    Top 45
    Muezzin 37
    Braun 35
    Schmidt 34
    Cole 34 UFA
    Chara 33

    Top 60 EVA
    Zlasic 33
    Edholm 32
    De Haan 30 UFA
    Engelland 30
    Ellis 30
    Brodie 29

    Top80 EVA
    Hainsey 28
    Russell 26
    Stralmann 25
    Larsson 24
    C. Miller 24

    Top 100 EVA
    Dumoulin 23
    Sekera 23
    Lindholm 23
    Sbisa 22
    K. Miller 22

    Even offence with brutal defence is shit GMing!

    Pick from that list!
    Period!

    Ricki, I like these lists buit do not know exactly what these numbers mean?

  8. Scungilli Slushy says:

    rickithebear:
    Goaltenders are subjected to shot success density each game that establishes an expected save% avg they perform around.

    YearsLaterreferred to expected GA by others.
    Which shows they missed the critical defensive measure connection of goalie performance.

    But without binary exclusion of shots that go in.
    You do not get a true density shot chart.
    You end up with EVGA rates that do not jive with expected ga. (Save%)

    But when you exclude 0% chance shots. You get a true measure of a goalies save ability!

    Talbot is one of the 10 best at stopping the shots that can go in!

    Have any of you broke down the goalies who stop the shots that will go in!

    Without that differentiation. It is guessing on a goalies ability!

    Ricki if you exclude 0% shots with Talbot you are excluding critical data because he let a bunch in this year. He’s good but really hot and cold.

  9. Wilde says:

    GCW_69:
    I am constantly surprised Severson doesn’t get on these lists.

    As long as Hynesis coach, there is a possible trade there. Severson isn’t a good fit there if the coach prefers vatanen and butcher.

    I mean, the playoff scratches were definitely eyebrow raising but Hynes leaned on him heavily when Vatanen was out and he ended up with the third highest Dman 5v5 TOI on the team.

  10. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    Well last year PC did nothing and we know how that worked out.

    This summer he is going to makes trades and acquisitions.

    The question is: Can he win some deals for a change?

    Lets hope hes past the point where he feels the need to lose the trade in order to re-balance roster deficiencies.

    In terms of the current roster……is he dealing from a position of strength?

    Is their anything about this roster that gives him LEVERAGE over other GMs???

    #10 pick? Does the 10 have more value to some teams than it does to us?

    JP? Does Jesse have big appeal to one or two specific GMs out there?

    Klefbom? Is Klefbom and that beautiful contract worth more to some GM than his Higher Cap Hit 2RHD?

    Gotta find the leverage if you want a fair/good deal.

    Does Toronto view Klefbom as cost effective Top 4 D with top pair potential? These guys are hard to find. Some team might be willing to BET on Klefbom becoming a Top Pair Dman with offensive upside.

    Not saying Trade Kelfbom….just saying find some Leverage because if you dont your not going to win the trade. And Chiarelli may still be in the mood to marginally lose a trade if he thinks the cumulative affect of the trade makes his team more balanced.

    Do you move Klefbom to Toronto for a scoring winger because thats where the leverage lies and then trade lesser parts for a 2RHD? Like Faulk.

    ITs pretty certain Chia is going to makes a move or two. What does anyone percieve to be his leverage??

    I think its the #10, Klefboms contract, Benning. (if Im stretching it I add Nurse and JP but I beleive this is less likely) Pick your poison and hope the Leverage works in our favour for a change.

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The NHL is backward, quality D should be paid more than most forwards. Far harder and more critical position.

    Goalies too if they could sustain play outside of a few.

  12. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne: Lets hope hes past the point where he feels the need to lose the trade in order to re-balance roster deficiencies.

    In terms of the current roster……is he dealing from a position of strength?

    Is their anything about this roster that gives him LEVERAGE over other GMs???

    #10 pick?Does the 10 have more value to some teams than it does to us?

    JP? Does Jesse have big appeal to one or two specific GMs out there?

    Klefbom?Is Klefbom and that beautiful contract worth more to some GM than his Higher Cap Hit 2RHD?

    Gotta find the leverage if you want a fair/good deal.

    Does Toronto view Klefbom as cost effective Top 4 D with top pair potential?These guys are hard to find. Some team might be willing to BET on Klefbom becoming a Top Pair Dman with offensive upside.

    Not saying Trade Kelfbom….just saying find some Leverage because if you dont your not going to win the trade. And Chiarelli may still be in the mood to marginally lose a trade if he thinks the cumulative affect of the trade makes his team more balanced.

    Do you move Klefbom to Toronto for a scoring winger because thats where the leverage lies and then trade lesser parts for a 2RHD? Like Faulk.

    ITs pretty certain Chia is going to makes a move or two. What does anyone percieve to be his leverage??

    I think its the #10,Klefboms contract,Benning.(if Im stretching it I add Nurse and JP but I beleive this is less likely)Pick your poison and hope the Leverage works in our favour for a change.

    If he continues to trade away draft picks this is only going to end up one way. The team may be good but it will never be great. He already pissed away a number 16 and number 33. Now if he sells of number 10 he better damn well get a good return because if you look at the 10 hole over the last 6 years it has produced some excellent players. Full Stop.

    The Oilers are selling the fact that it seems like Peter Chirelli has a plan but I think his plan seems to be changing every 6 months. The first year he’s really aggressive then the second year he’s overly cautious and now it looks like he’s back into overly aggressive mood.

  13. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    And again the problem is not making deals the problem is in his 3 years him and his crew have shown an inability to properly analyze incoming players and properly analyze outgoing assets.

    In some of the misses are so big they’re actually mind-boggling how they could be so wrong.

    So if he makes one more s*** deal and sells off klefbom or number 10 overall and gets back and declining aging one-dimensional defenseman I’m not sure does much for us.

  14. Andy Dufresne says:

    VOR: Carter Hutton $1,500,000 per annum for 2 years. Don’t get me wrong love this signing but Hutton would present a less expensive, less risky bet. Or Francouz, more risk, more upside, probably same money.

    Good answer. Hutton has been a reasonably good backup for the last three years. One risk is that he is 32 and never been a good Starter….which is OK because hes only being hired as a backup. Bigger risk is hes been average on some VERY good defensive teams for the last 4 years. Nashville and St Louis.

    But for those who would have prefered a less expensive option yours is a good answer/option.

  15. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    Andy Dufresne,

    And again the problem is not making deals the problem is ensure at least 3 years him and his crew have shown an inability to properly analyze incoming players and properly analyze outgoing assets.

    In some of the misses are so big they’re actually mind-boggling how they could be so wrong.

    So if he makes one more s*** deal and sells off klefbom or number 10 overall and gets back and declining aging one-dimensional defenseman I’m not sure does much for us.

    I here you. But Im also pretty sure ( could say certain) moves are going to happen. So Ill ask you again, given this roster where would YOU find the leverage to potentially allow YOU to win a trade.

  16. jtblack says:

    Just look at the track record of PC analyzing and signing Talent.

    He traded to first round picks essentially for an AHL defenseman. Now I don’t know where he got his information or who they were watching but 85% of people did not think Griffin Reinhart was good. So the risk taken was enormous.

    Nobody made him sign yonas Gustafson as a backup goalie. They must have analyze them but forgot to look at his career save percentage cuz again 85% of people knew he was horseshit.

    LB didn’t have a great save percentage in the NHL and was a risky bet again as a backup goaltender but PC analyze it and ran with it and it failed.

    He signed UC opening and then had to get rid of him shortly thereafter.

    He signed Kris Russell to a four-year deal. I don’t know what metrics and everything else he was looking at besides character and a tough cowboy and a good Elberton but 85% of people did not want that signing to happen.

    Backed up the Brinks truck for an aging power forward name Milan Lucic at the time it was probably a 50-50 debate to whether it was a good or a bad deal but almost everybody knew that by the last two years it would be a horrible deal. Fast forward two years and that contract was very problematic

  17. SwedishPoster says:

    leadfarmer: He had a 0.5 GAA average higher and 20 save percentage points lower than Shestyorkin last year and similar numbers to that year the year before so I don’t think that’s true.Seems like he had a good season this year and had a good 2013-15

    It’s not just about regular season numbers, it’s about being solid over time and stepping up when it matters. He does that, big time.
    And it’s not like his numbers have been bad, he hasn’t had below 91.5 Sv% since 2011 and his playoff Sv% has been above 0.935 the last four seasons.
    Koskinen has been stellar in international games which is key as well since the very tactical KHL game is slower. Some of the top KHL goalies Sv%-wise have been exposed in international showings.

  18. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    Just look at the track record of PC analyzing and signing Talent.

    He traded to first round picks essentially for an AHL defenseman. Now I don’t know where he got his information or who they were watching but 85% of people did not think Griffin Reinhart was good. So the risk taken was enormous.

    Nobody made him sign yonas Gustafson as a backup goalie. They must have analyze them but forgot to look at his career save percentage cuz again 85% of people knew he was horseshit.

    LB didn’t have a great save percentage in the NHL and was a risky bet again as a backup goaltender but PC analyze it and ran with it and it failed.

    He signed UC opening and then had to get rid of him shortly thereafter.

    He signed Kris Russell to a four-year deal. I don’t know what metrics and everything else he was looking at besides character and a tough cowboy and a good Elberton but 85% of people did not want that signing to happen.

    Backed up the Brinks truck for an aging power forward name Milan Lucic at the time it was probably a 50-50 debate to whether it was a good or a bad deal but almost everybody knew that by the last two years it would be a horrible deal.Fast forward two years and that contract was very problematic

    jtblack,

    I here you. But Im also pretty sure ( could say certain) moves are going to happen. So Ill ask you again, given this roster where do YOU see the leverage that might potentially allow Chiarelli to win a trade.

  19. Rondo says:

    GCW_69:
    I am constantly surprised Severson doesn’t get on these lists.

    As long as Hynesis coach, there is a possible trade there. Severson isn’t a good fit there if the coach prefers vatanen and butcher.

    Severson was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, he doesn’t play much defense. That is why hopefully
    peter C knows this.

  20. Andy Dufresne says:

    SwedishPoster: It’s not just about regular season numbers, it’s about being solid over time and stepping up when it matters. He does that, big time.
    And it’s not like his numbers have been bad, he hasn’t had below 91.5 Sv% since 2011 and his playoff Sv% has been above 0.935 the last four seasons.
    Koskinen has been stellar in international games which is key as well since the very tactical KHL game is slower. Some of the top KHL goalies Sv%-wise have been exposed in international showings.

    Interesting that someone with a pretty stellar record would chose to leave the KHL for the same money playing in a “backup role”……any idea/guess/opinion on what might have motivated him to do so at age 32?

  21. Confused says:

    Mock draft at the A, Oilers Noah Dobson….keep the pick!

  22. VOR says:

    Ricki,

    There is no such thing as a 0% chance of scoring. All shots have some chance of going in. Ask Tony Esposito or Cam Talbot. Or for that matter J.C. Tremblay.

    The only shot that has zero chance of scoring is the one you don’t take.

    There is a fascinating relationship between shots taken and goals scored. The more shots you take the more shots go in. This is why shot volume strategies were created.

    They have started to be abused as was the case with the Oilers this year. You need to keep the goalie guessing and moving and the Oilers became predictable. Goalies may be weird but they aren’t stupid. They adjust if you keep having the same players take the same shots from the same places. Which to my eye is what the Oilers did.

    You not only need to disguise your shot (wicked tricky releases are what turn a Jesse Puljujarvi into a James Neal). You need to keep the goalie guessing about who will take the shot, what type of shot it will be, and where it will be taken from. If you can keep them guessing then the more shots the better.

    The truth is, what ever the current thinking HDSC aren’t a place. They are everywhere a player has time and space enough and a goalie that isn’t sure what is happening next. They are a phenomenon not a location.

    Basketball statisticians have a cute expression we use to remind us it isn’t where you shoot from, “Archie Clark, in the library with a candlestick.”

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    Confused:
    Mock draft at the A, Oilers Noah Dobson….keep the pick!

    Mckenzie has Dobson ahead of Quinn Hughes

    And Button has Dobson ahead of Boqvist (in our range)

    But Pronman had him at 24th mid season…..should be interesting as the big guns update thier lists.

  24. Yeti says:

    Andy Dufresne: Interesting that someone with a pretty stellar record would chose to leave the KHL for the same money playing in a “backup role”……any idea/guess/opinion on what might have motivated him to do so at age 32?

    Four guesses:
    1) Felt he needed to prove himself in the best league in the world.
    2) Worries the KHL is in financial trouble as a league
    3) Would like to live in North America
    and even
    4) Figures if he does well he’ll have a good shot at a bigger payday once the contract is up

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    Yeti: Four guesses:
    1) Felt he needed to prove himself in the best league in the world.
    2) Worries the KHL is in financial trouble as a league
    3) Would like to live in North America
    and even
    4) Figures if he does well he’ll have a good shot at a bigger payday once the contract is up

    1, 3 and 4 would mean hes VERY motivated.

  26. SwedishPoster says:

    Andy Dufresne: Interesting that someone with a pretty stellar record would chose to leave the KHL for the same money playing in a “backup role”……any idea/guess/opinion on what might have motivated him to do so at age 32?

    Same money? He pretty much doubled his pay check coming over. He made 1.3 M per year for the last two seasons in the KHL, that 2.6 M rumoured was for the whole two year contract.

    But I think his main motivation is to prove himself at the highest level. I also don’t think he’s coming over to be the back up, I’m convinced that while he knows he’s starting out behind Talbot he is absolutely gunning for the starter job. He believes he’s good enough.
    He’s (not quite) 30 btw.

  27. RonnieB says:

    Andy Dufresne: Interesting that someone with a pretty stellar record would chose to leave the KHL for the same money playing in a “backup role”……any idea/guess/opinion on what might have motivated him to do so at age 32?

    Honest question. Where did you see that he was coming over for the same money ? I ask because a couple of weeks ago i saw an article listing all the salaries on his team and his was showing at the equivalent of $1.3 U,S,

    Google Mikko Koskinen khl salary and the 2nd hit is an article “Highest KHL Salaries List Leaks. Koskinen at $1.3 U.S. on the list.

  28. RonnieB says:

    Gosh, that PC guy is sure good at negotiating contracts.

  29. leadfarmer says:

    SwedishPoster,

    But that’s what I’m saying. Most KHL goalies that are any good seem to routinely put up 930 save percentage. Samsonov hovers there every year. Shestyorkin has last two years, Sorokin has 4 years of that number. These guys are a lot younger. So having a vet who is 6 years older not able to do that catches ones attention. I guess we will have to wait and see but 29 goalies put up a 920 sp and 12 goalies put up a 930 sp

  30. Andy Dufresne says:

    RonnieB: Honest question. Where did you see that he was coming over for the same money ? I ask because a couple of weeks ago i saw an article listing all the salaries on his team and his was showing at the equivalent of $1.3 U,S,

    my mistake…..Im confuisng numbers from different sourses .(the first rumoured announcements radio shows) talked about 2 years at $2.5 million. No where that I can remember anyone saying he was making that in the KHL.

    Now SwedishPoster confirms your numbers to be correct.

    I think I confused myself when he was compared to Anders Nilsson who is also making $2.5 AVV.

    Sorry about that.

  31. LoDog says:

    leadfarmer,

    I hear the Oilers have an excellent European scout that I am sure must have pushed this guy.

  32. RonnieB says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    No worries.

  33. Andy Dufresne says:

    I also heard Stauffer mentioning that he thought KHL players are paid in Euros.

    Wonder if thats true.

  34. Andy Dufresne says:

    LoDog:
    leadfarmer,

    I hear the Oilers have an excellent European scout that I am sure must have pushed this guy.

    He showed him YouTube videos of Jesse interacting with local citizens. I Mean who wouldnt want to play with that guy?!

  35. SwedishPoster says:

    leadfarmer:
    SwedishPoster,

    But that’s what I’m saying.Most KHL goalies that are any good seem to routinely put up 930 save percentage.Samsonov hovers there every year.Shestyorkin has last two years,Sorokin has 4 years of that number.These guys are a lot younger.So having a vet who is 6 years older not able to do that catches ones attention.I guess we will have to wait and see but 29 goalies put up a 920 sp and 12 goalies put up a 930 sp

    Yeah a lot of goalies are putting up those type of numbers in the KHL, including Koskinen, I’m saying Sv% doesn’t tell the whole story. He has played a solid regular season game for several years, stepped it up in the playoffs and international games. And is widely considered one of the best goalies, maybe the best, in europe the last few years. He’s coming over with a great resume and as a top goalie in european hockey . I don’t think that is in doubt the least. The question is if he can handle the step up in competition, the much higher pace and adjusting to the smaller ice.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stuart Skinner named WHL goalie of the month.

  37. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Yeti,

    5) was given an expectation of number of starts assuming he doesn’t sh?t the bed.

  38. LoDog says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I think it’s a good bet that doesn’t cost any assets but if he did shit the bed he goes back to Europe and no cap hit. Come November people might be surprised.

  39. Confused says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Exactly!

    If he is coming and happy to be a back-up let’s not sign him.

    Happy to be a back-up equals failed starter or retiring starter.

    We want no part of either.

  40. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne: jtblack,

    I here you. But Im also pretty sure ( could say certain) moves are going to happen. So Ill ask you again, given this roster where doYOU see the leverage that might potentially allow Chiarelli to win a trade.

    I don’t see a lot of Leverage to be Honest. My guesses.

    1) The Leftorium. At some point it needs to be culled. One of Oscar, Nurse or Reggie will be gone by Sept.. I am fine if a RHD of similiar ability comes back
    2) Really the team has RNH although I would NOT move him.
    3) Yammy JP #10 OV. I would NOT mive them either.

    PC has painted himself into a corner. Not much Leverage compared to other teams

  41. Spooky Lynx says:

    Jesse should spend all summer watching Blake Wheeler tape.

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    LoDog:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I think it’s a good bet that doesn’t cost any assets but if he did shit the bed he goes back to Europe and no cap hit. Come November people might be surprised.

    – Exactly right. Richard SS nailed it with his observation of the neurosis here

    – At worst, he sh%ts the bed, he keeps his $500K bonus, and heads back to Russia

    – As Lead has pointed out: he’s the best goalie non-NHL, and played well for Finland

    – Everyone pounced on the imaginary $5MM 2 years. Now its “$2MM cap is way too much”

    – He brings max. upside, with the ability to leave if he sucks. What if he’s actually good?

    – I think its a creative gamble: as all goalie backups are gambles, untill they work out. If it works out Chia will be lucky, if it doesn’t then just add on to the Chia is a bum

  43. Doug McLachlan says:

    VOR: Carter Hutton $1,500,000 per annum for 2 years. Don’t get me wrong love this signing but Hutton would present a less expensive, less risky bet. Or Francouz, more risk, more upside, probably same money.

    Hutton is an great option. Suspect St. Louis re-ups him but I will watch his contract to see what he signs for.

  44. Jethro Tull says:

    Please watch the Latvian highlights of today’s game. I had no idea what they were saying, but they were passionate and loved McDavid.

  45. jp says:

    pts2pndr:
    The discussion on this site after watching Edmonton play Carolina was of the opinion that Faulk would not be much of an upgrade over Benning! It seemed by what the various posters observed that Faulk has indeed lost a step. It has suprised me somewhat that it is now being revisited as an option.

    Can WG or anyone else speak to this point? It is indeed the narrative, but it’s not clear to me there’s been a change in his play/results.

    He’s been over 50% CF, SF, SCF etc pretty consistently, and typically below 45% GF for a number of years now. Predictably accompanied by a consistently terrible PDO (~970). All of these things have been true over the past 4 seasons (Carolina as a team has been doing this for a number of years too, have they not?).

    I can see the concerns with this player, but not the falling off a cliff/losing a step stuff.

  46. pts2pndr says:

    dustrock: Agreed completely Rex, I’ve been saying this for the last 6 months.

    Nurse might also be the only d-man who increased his value this year.Sell high.

    Moving Nurse who is now projecting as a top pairing defenseman that you can lock up for seven years would border on assanine. Nurse embodies what is required in the new NHL (speed) and old school hard to play against! His value is high because his skills and potential are starting to be recognized.

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chia’s contracts haven’t been as bad as his propensity of giving himself no way out of them.

    If you are paying top dollar, for non elite players especially, they should not get NMCs .

    I can see limited NTCs as a negotiation tool, at least you can still get out and usually those are UFA deals so even if it’s a fire sale there is no asset loss.

    If Koskinen has movement clauses that should be immediate frog walkmtime for Trader Pete.

  48. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp: Can WG or anyone else speak to this point? It is indeed the narrative, but it’s not clear to me there’s been a change in his play/results.

    He’s been over 50% CF, SF, SCF etc pretty consistently, and typically below 45% GF for a number of years now. Predictably accompanied by a consistently terrible PDO (~970). All of these things have been true over the past 4 seasons (Carolina as a team has been doing this for a number of years too, have they not?).

    I can see the concerns with this player, but not the falling off a cliff/losing a step stuff.

    WG commented a while back Faulk drags every partner down. And he was never known for solid D zone skillls.

    These playoffs Burns has 6 pts and is 4 goals for 5 against, Vlasic has 2 pts 5 goals for 3 against.

    A crude look but offense isn’t the whole story especially for D.

    When you have McD and Nuge on your team a PP D man isn’t needed if it’s run properly, especially if he doesn’t contribute 5v5. Sekera and Klef are enough, the D just needs to distribute properly.

    Nobody will help puck movement if they don’t sort team play out first. As it is Lidstrom would look bad.

  49. Spooky Lynx says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Please watch the Latvian highlights of today’s game. I had no idea what they were saying, but they were passionate and loved McDavid.

    https://youtu.be/B4NTSnMojQI

    “Sconnar MacDavids”

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    Spooky Lynx: https://youtu.be/B4NTSnMojQI

    “Sconnar MacDavids”

    “Sconnar?”

    “Yes. McDavids, when he gets puck, he Sconnar.”

  51. LoDog says:

    Jethro Tull: “Sconnar?”

    Omg that is awesome.
    “Yes. McDavids, when he gets puck, he Sconnar.”

  52. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Imagine if he’s actually good: “I won’t say who will be our number one, as all our goalies have done well this year. They are all among the finest goalies in your league, Metsola has a great season with Amur, Ramo is an NHL-class player who has finally returned to full fitness, and Koskinen had been solid as a rock for us in two consecutive World Championships in addition to winning the Gagarin Cup. The top troika of Finnish goalies in all Europe.””

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Please watch the Latvian highlights of today’s game. I had no idea what they were saying, but they were passionate and loved McDavid.

    I watched the first period and had the last two periods on in the back ground at the office. The only words I understood were “McDavid” and “McDavid”. I have no idea what they were saying but they said that name alot.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Can WG or anyone else speak to this point? It is indeed the narrative, but it’s not clear to me there’s been a change in his play/results.

    He’s been over 50% CF, SF, SCF etc pretty consistently, and typically below 45% GF for a number of years now. Predictably accompanied by a consistently terrible PDO (~970). All of these things have been true over the past 4 seasons (Carolina as a team has been doing this for a number of years too, have they not?).

    I can see the concerns with this player, but not the falling off a cliff/losing a step stuff.

    For some more context, he had 58% offensive zone starts.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: WG commented a while back Faulk drags every partner down. And he was never known for solid D zone skillls.

    These playoffs Burns has 6 pts and is 4 goals for 5 against, Vlasic has 2 pts 5 goals for 3 against.

    A crude look but offense isn’t the whole story especially for D.

    When you have McD and Nuge on your team a PP D man isn’t needed if it’s run properly, especially if he doesn’t contribute 5v5. Sekera and Klef are enough, the D just needs to distribute properly.

    Nobody will help puck movement if they don’t sort team play out first. As it is Lidstrom would look bad.

    But then again so did Hamonic before he got traded and most people wanted to trade for him.

  56. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy: WG commented a while back Faulk drags every partner down. And he was never known for solid D zone skillls.

    These playoffs Burns has 6 pts and is 4 goals for 5 against, Vlasic has 2 pts 5 goals for 3 against.

    A crude look but offense isn’t the whole story especially for D.

    When you have McD and Nuge on your team a PP D man isn’t needed if it’s run properly, especially if he doesn’t contribute 5v5. Sekera and Klef are enough, the D just needs to distribute properly.

    Nobody will help puck movement if they don’t sort team play out first. As it is Lidstrom would look bad.

    So the WOWYs are the new revelation?

    Agreed otherwise, offense gets paid and all that. He clearly seems to have some defensive issues (appears to be the anti-Russell but even more extreme – a 970 PDO is hard to do consistently).

    All that said, none of this seems new. Maybe the recent realization he’s not a complete D is the hot take?

  57. VOR says:

    I am certain Mikko Koskinen is a fine goaltender and an astute signing by the Oilers but let’s try to be realistic.

    The last two years he was 34th and 26th in the KHL in minutes played. Over those two years he was significantly out played by his batterymate (never mind about 24 other KHL goalies). This year their stats are nearly identical though Koskinen has a slight edge. So I am not sure he can even claim to be the best goalie on his own squad.

    Koskinen did lead the KHL in winning percentage while playing on an amazing team, easily the best in the KHL witness his teammate was number 2 in winning percentage and only fractionally behind. Otherwise, statistically while he was one of the better goalies in the KHL Koskinen was by no means the best. The last several years Koskinen was undoubtedly amongst the very best goalies on the International stage and he played very well in the KHL playoffs but here we have the tournament of small sample sizes problem.

    I certainly wouldn’t want to bet the farm he is better than Carter Hutton for the backup goalie job. If something happens with Cam Talbot I’d certainly prefer Mikko Koskinen to Al Montoya as my backup and for that matter I would take Koskinen over Hutton as well if I need a fill in starter. My problem is if Talbot goes down the KHL goaltender I would want is Pavel Francouz.

    Francouz led the KHL in save % the last two years while playing more games, facing way more shots and playing on a far worse team. If the rumours Francouz is signing in Toronto are true I guess we will get to see which guy is better as an NHL goaltender. Koskinen is huge and fills the net. You’d think that would give him the edge in transitioning to the NHL over the cat quick but much smaller Francouz. On the other hand there is zero evidence Koskinen can play big minutes in any league though his resume is nearly perfect for a backup.

    So I see this as an astute signing of a possibly elite backup but am a concerned if anything happens to Talbot that Koskinen can’t carry the work load.

  58. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    I am certain Mikko Koskinen is a fine goaltender and an astute signing by the Oilers but let’s try to be realistic.

    The last two years he was 34th and 26th in the KHL in minutes played. Over those two years he was significantly out played by his batterymate (never mind about 24 other KHL goalies). This year their stats are nearly identical though Koskinen has a slight edge. So I am not sure he can even claim to be the best goalie on his own squad.

    Koskinen did lead the KHL in winning percentage while playing on an amazing team, easily the best in the KHL witness his teammate was number 2 in winning percentage and only fractionally behind. Otherwise, statistically while he was one of the better goalies in the KHL Koskinen was by no means the best. The last several years Koskinen was undoubtedly amongst the very best goalies on the International stage and he played very well in the KHL playoffs but here we have the tournament of small sample sizes problem.

    I certainly wouldn’t want to bet the farm he is better than Carter Hutton for the backup goalie job. If something happens with Cam Talbot I’d certainly prefer Mikko Koskinen to Al Montoya as my backup and for that matter I would take Koskinen over Hutton as well if I need a fill in starter. My problem is if Talbot goes down the KHL goaltender I would want is Pavel Francouz.

    Francouz led the KHL in save % the last two years while playing more games, facing way more shots and playing on a far worse team. If the rumours Francouz is signing in Toronto are true I guess we will get to see which guy is better as an NHL goaltender. Koskinen is huge and fills the net. You’d think that would give him the edge in transitioning to the NHL over the cat quick but much smaller Francouz. On the other hand there is zero evidence Koskinen can play big minutes in any league though his resume is nearly perfect for a backup.

    So I see this as an astute signing of a possibly elite backup but am a concerned if anything happens to Talbot that Koskinen can’t carry the work load.

    I read on the back of my eyelids Connor has hired Hasek as a trainer this summer, he’s on it!

    2 periods out and scores 5 goals, shuts the door in net in the third.

    Next summer he’s going to learn D, the next pugilism, the next special teams coaching, in case he needs players on the ice with him anymore.

  59. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp: So the WOWYs are the new revelation?

    They aren’t perfect but give an idea of who’s doing what, especially given D are hard to view singly as partner has a big effect on results.

    I trust WGs take as he is actively involved in understanding specifically what the stats sites are
    calculating and the nuances of where the issues lay.

    With context such as an O zone push it seems Faulk is skilled but not reliable in his coach’s estimation. He also seems to have a fitness issue, which is something that can be corrected if he’s ‘motivated’, which is the worry.

    Could be a great buy low or another D needing shelter and not helping where the OIlers need it most.

  60. --hudson-- says:

    2013-14 (MacT): Fasth, Scrivens, Dubnyk, Bryzgalov, Labarbera
    Since 2015 (Chia): LB, Nilsson, Gustavsson, Montoya

    Not too optimistic on Koskinen and whoever coined the phrase about taking so many swings to fix a single problem, hit the nail on the head. That’s a carousel of goalies to pass through a franchise in less than 5 years.

    It seems the current Oilers management either do not value save percentage or they assume goalies will regress to their career highs. Otherwise if they did value save percentage or GSAA they would not hire Gustavsson or Montoya.

    Finger crossed for Koskinen to right the ship.

  61. digger50 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Lets put some markers down.

    If you are good with going into next season with Montoya and some combination of the prospect G as your Talbot back-up, fine, but say so.

    If not, let me know who you think we could have gotten instead.What would be the term and what would be the AAV?

    I am sure we overpaid and sure we took on a risk but the differential is the difference from Montoya so we paid $1.4M more for a goalie that may or may not be an improvement on what we have.

    Late getting back to you

    In my post I do not give an opinion on Koskinen because I do not know enough to judge.

    But I can infer by Peters bets that

    1/ he is worried about Talbot
    2/ he is not going to change his acquisition behaviour. He will pay the price and worry about an empty wallet later.

    I’m on the boat that the roster needs some upgrades. We must get better with littleso it’s critical to squeeze value out of available cap space. And bad trades this summer could prove devastating.

    So we have a new back up – good, it was on the list. Time will tell on this one and that’s a shame because I’d rather have a known quantity. But okay, we also have to take some risk, otherwise we’ll never find that gem before he becomes unaffordable.

    So I’m happy Peter is doing something, yet terrified that he is doing something. If he can’t change his trading behaviour we will continue to lose asset value.

  62. Ranford.85 says:

    The only way I can explain the Koskinen signing is that Chia is desperate to have a Finnish influence on the team for Jessie. Pak is gone and yet we’re talking about a KHL goalie with very little NHL experience but can speak Jessie’s native tongue. Any other way and it’s a complete waste of the cap space.

    On that topic, people trash Kassian’s contract and I say if you’re paying him 1.95 million a season, then play him accordingly. I see Kass as the 3RW, based on his skill, speed, tenacity and pay. He may even play a more involved game that way. Imagine a 3rd line of Lucic-Khaira-Kassian…. I’d hate to play against that line. Strome at 2.5-3 million would be an overpay for 3C.

  63. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy: They aren’t perfect but give an idea of who’s doing what, especially given D are hard to view singly as partner has a big effect on results.

    I trust WGs take as he is actively involved in understanding specifically what the stats sites are
    calculating and the nuances of where the issues lay.

    With context such as an O zone push it seems Faulk is skilled but not reliable in his coach’s estimation. He also seems to have a fitness issue, which is something that can be corrected if he’s ‘motivated’, which is the worry.

    Could be a great buy low or another D needing shelter and not helping where the OIlers need it most.

    Yes, for sure the WOWY’s help interpret the numbers.

    What I was more trying to get at though is when/how he went from sought after to questionable player. Nothing I can see on NST seems to show a change in performance or underlying numbers for him, yet perceptions have changed.

  64. BONE207 says:

    Regarding the Koskinen signing:
    Which GM commented that they should change the game’s name from hockey to goalie?
    If the Oilers can get goal-tending like the year before or better, maybe that will be enough to get into the playoffs even with our current D.

    Expectations from our younger players after last years playoff experience was expected to be in the forward direction. Why did so many fail? Did TMac cause this? I get more convinced by the day.

    Our current D can be better than this year if Sekera gets back up to speed. I look forward to him in the WC. If they keep the rest, improve their system in their own end and develop a faster breakout, perhaps they can make a run.

    Last point and this has bothered me for a couple of years.
    Both Pete & TMac said the year before, that they are still a growing bunch and we should temper our expectations. Yet they were in a playoff run all season and got there too! Why temper expectations when you should motivate them to go higher?
    This past season however, in pre-season, TMac was lowering his expectations already. Why would you not push/promote/motivate this group ever more? If systems were shit, get a bigger shovel and dig for deeper gold?

    Collectively, are we insane to spend so much energy trying to figure this all out when all we can do is watch grown men piss in the wind year after year?

  65. Bulging Twine says:

    Pick #10

    Looking at the young potential higher end pieces in place:

    LW – RNH
    C – McDavid
    C – Draisattl
    RW – Puljujarvi
    RW – Yamamoto
    D- Nurse
    D – Larsson
    D – Klefbom

    What appears to be missing is a LW, preferably a goal scorer, and a top 2 D man.

    Wahlstrom or one of the D

  66. Ribs says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Based on KHL history Nilsson is a good comp for Koskinen.

    I’m hoping this holds true, but there seemed to be a lot of people who didn’t care for Nilsson when he was here.

    What is the reasonable ask of a backup goaltender? Keep above 0.9 SV% ? More wins than losses? Play steady with the least amount of soft goals as possible?

    The signing is a roll of the dice, but I’m not too sure how many safe bets were out there. At least it’s only one year?

  67. Lowetide says:

    Ribs: I’m hoping this holds true, but there seemed to be a lot of people who didn’t care for Nilsson when he was here.

    What is the reasonable ask of a backup goaltender? Keep above 0.9 SV% ? More wins than losses? Play steady with the least amount of soft goals as possible?

    The signing is a roll of the dice, but I’m not too sure how many safe bets were out there. At least it’s only one year?

    I think you hope he’s Roloson and appreciate the team can get out from under if things go sideways.

  68. Jaxon says:

    There are definitely some promising results at #10 in mock drafts posted since the lottery (players still not picked who I like in brackets):

    TSN Button: Boqvist (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Kimelman: Boqvist (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Sporting News: Bouchard (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    The Score: Veleno (Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Oilers Nation: Dobson (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    The Athletic: Dobson (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Lepage: Kotkaniemi (Veleno, Merkley, Noel)
    NHL Morreale: Wahlstrom (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Last Word on Hockey: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Bleacher Report: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)
    Fansisded Puck Prose: Smith (Veleno, Kotkaniemi, Merkley, Noel)

    These sites are more consensus rankings than Mock drafts but they do consider team needs:
    MyNHL Draft: Farabee
    DraftSite: Smith
    Tankathon: Farabee

    Boqvist shows up twice!!!! Bouchard shows up too! Dobson, Wahlstrom and Kotkaniemi also fall to #10 in some drafts. Veleno looks like our fall back sure thing. I would be quite happy with Veleno, too.

    Note: I’d rather have Merkley over Smith and Noel over Farabee.

  69. Ribs says:

    Lowetide: I think you hope he’s Roloson and appreciate the team can get out from under if things go sideways.

    He’s gotta be better than Gustavsson, right? I mean….right? *gulp*

  70. JimmyV1965 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Hutton is an great option. Suspect St. Louis re-ups him but I will watch his contract to see what he signs for.

    No way Hutton resigns at $1.5. Will likely be 2.5 for at least two years.

  71. GMB3 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I hear you. And I fully acknowledge that you have more experience following Chiarelli than I do.

    Im just saying that he has many eyes/minds looking at this and has had for some time. He has ALOT more information/insight on the player than you or I (to me this is undeniable IMO) AND, he would have given this a great deal of due diligence given everything he has riding on this that you and I do not ( this is also undeniable IMO)

    I see the risk coming mainly from the idea of Goaltending being the One Positon that respresents a “single point of failure” amongst all the risky moves that need to be undertaken.

    If I hear you, you see the risk coming in three forms, one is the one I just mentioned, the other is cap usage and the third is that Chiarelli has failed lost on several bets int he past and the recent past.

    So is the risk high. Yes.But for me it is something like 2% risk on cap issue, 20% risk on past missed bets, and largest part of risk is “did he get the right guy”.

    I beleive he made what he beleives to be the least risky choice of the options he saw as available to him given the current circiumstances. To do otherwise would be non-sensical in an objective sense.

    I think hes a smart guy surrounded by some smart hockey people (not all of them), and as such certainly better at assessing and actioning this situation then I am.

    You to see him as a smart guy….but you see a series of misteps/mistakes that set as default for you that there is a high probabilty that he might F#ck this up.

    So for you the risk is high. For me the risk is within the normal range of risk given the circusmstances.

    This is absolute nonsense. Why be such a shill for a man in a (track)suit.

    Why appeal to authority like this? Here is a really easy way to prove the failings of this kind of logic: Griffin Reinhart.

    There we go.

    OBVIOUSLY he has MORE insight than ANY of the posters on this BLOG (except for everyone he procolaimed that trade as egregious on the day it was made).

    Inb4 “buuuut that trade wasn’t Chiarelli’s fault”

  72. Ribs says:

    JimmyV1965: No way Hutton resigns at $1.5. Will likely be 2.5 for at least two years.

    What’s the Hamburglar get?

  73. SwedishPoster says:

    VOR,

    This season Koskinen played 63 games in total if you include international duty and playoffs, last year he played fewer I think in part because the KHL didn’t take a break for the World Cup where Koskinen was third string behind Rask and Rinne but the year before he played 79 games and the year before that 76 games. He’s played his best late in the season all those years so if he falters I doubt it’s due to the workload. He might not be able to handle 65 regular season games followed by a full playoff session but that’s not really the goal with the signing.

    It’s clear SKA has had a 1A, 1B situation the last two years but it’s also clear Koskinen was the A in that constellation, when the games were important he played.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ribs: I’m hoping this holds true, but there seemed to be a lot of people who didn’t care for Nilsson when he was here.

    What is the reasonable ask of a backup goaltender? Keep above 0.9 SV% ? More wins than losses? Play steady with the least amount of soft goals as possible?

    The signing is a roll of the dice, but I’m not too sure how many safe bets were out there. At least it’s only one year?

    Yes, I think that is a reasonable ask of a backup goaltender and that would be sufficient if the backup goaltender was making normal backup goaltender money – unfortunately, the backup goaltender that was signed yesterday has a cap hit approaching that of a 3rd line forward – I don’t know what the reasonable ask for such a player/contract is.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: No way Hutton resigns at $1.5. Will likely be 2.5 for at least two years.

    $2.5M, for a back-up goaltender? That is egregious, isn’t it? Wait a second…….

  76. Wilde says:

    Not sure if this is already posted, but the Edmonton Prospect Watch guy has begun posting season highlights, Filip Berglund’s and Cooper Marody’s are both up already:

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvvHvXmQ786LaR1SeJoLfZQ/videos

  77. stephen sheps says:

    SwedishPoster,

    this isn’t a reply to this specific comment, just a two-days late thank you for that incredible scouting report you posted. Great stuff!

    Lowetide,

    1) Yes that’s a pretty solid assessment – I also hope he’s a Roloson-like late bloomer, but if not it’s a 1 year deal

    2) crazy horse is back. they played last night. here’s a link with some pretty high quality videos: https://www.stereogum.com/1994333/neil-young-crazy-horse-reunite-in-fresno-watch/video/

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