Too much month at the end of the money

What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Peter Chiarelli told us he would like to improve backup goaltending, add a winger or two, and that adding a puck mover for the power play (prefer a righty, might not be possible) was a major priority. Edmonton is up against it when it comes to the cap and added a $2.5 million backup goalie yesterday. There’s only two ways this can go now. You won’t like one and the other probably means missing the playoffs. Are we having fun yet?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

Jon’s piece offers a range of possible outcomes and frames the Koskinen signing well. For $2.5 million on the cap, one would hope for more certainty but if Koskinen delivers we’ll not hear a discouraging word about it. Peter Chiarelli’s signing of Koskinen is somewhat similar to his acquisition of Anders Nilsson in 2015 (except more expensive and less proven). Edmonton’s pro scouts must be convinced of him, I’m surprised PC didn’t aim higher in what is a make or break summer for him. Or, maybe he did and I can’t see it from here. It does look like another Chiarelli expensive bet and gives the organization even less cap room to go shopping.  I think you hope this goalie is Roloson (very late career peak) and appreciate the team can get out from under if things go sideways.

PROJECTED ‘BUDGET’ OPENING NIGHT ROSTER ’18-’19

  • This lands the Oilers at $77 million and gives the club room to wheel at the deadline. I don’t know that they would need the extra money for buying.
  • In this example, I left the defense alone. That’s not a bad idea by the way. Oscar Klefbom should rebound, Andrej Sekera too. I have Ethan Bear as the No. 7 option, more likely we see a Keegan Lowe or Dillon Simpson.
  • There isn’t much money left, so I added two free agents (Patrick Maroon and MPS) to help left wing. You can choose others but the general idea is adding a couple of useful forwards.
  • Bringing back Maroon gives the Oilers some options despite the lack of speed.
  • Plenty of reaction to Ty Rattie at No. 1 right wing I expect, you can place Jesse Puljujarvi there, or Kailer Yamamoto, or Drake Caggiula. Bottom line: One of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi will eventually grab that role, Rattie was the man in that position when everyone laid down their sticks.

PROJECTED ‘CHIARELLI’ OPENING NIGHT ROSTER ’18-’19

This is probably closer to Peter Chiarelli’s dream scenario. Gone are Oscar Klefbom, Zack Kassian and the first-round selection, new hires are in blue. OEL is a free agent in summer 2019, so that’s a major downbeat. The cap room is razor thin, but I’ve included $850,000 of Jesse Puljujarvi’s bonus in this model. Edmonton could use that money as a cushion and any overage would be applied to the 2019-20 cap, so we can estimate around $1 million in space with this model. I did include the Benoit Pouliot $1.33 million buyout penalty above.

This route bleeds young talent but if the team can sign OEL and players like Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson and Kirill Maksimov develop the organization should be okay. The key for Edmonton is Jesse Puljujarvi. He was chosen No. 4 overall and needs to be an outscorer at even strength. I believe he’ll make it.

Kotkaniemi would be an interesting choice for Edmonton. If you look at the current prospect pool, Edmonton has a plethora of defenders (Bear, Jones, but also Berglund, Lagesson, Samorukov et cetera) and might be more interested in a forward. Some very good arrows for the Finn.

He’s such a dynamic player with the puck, I wonder if the Oilers might take a chance. I know the back story and understand the organization is all about good eggs but if you’re trying to win Stanley the idea is to collect more impact players than the other guy. No one argues this young man’s offensive talent. No one. I’d give a 2-4 to know what the Oilers think about him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We have a great list of guests and a variety of topics. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Edmonton’s brand new goalie.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Some eye popping numbers from mlb’s best early this year.
  • Bill Hoppe, Times Herald. The Sabres finally win a lottery.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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215 Responses to "Too much month at the end of the money"

« Older Comments
  1. Bulging Twine says:

    Is there an NHLE on save percentage?
    If not, why not?

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Injuries are a concern.

    Yup

  3. flyfish1168 says:

    digger50: Well of course Bob asked Peter how he would manage the cap during his interview.

    And Peter replied “don’t worry Bob, I have a plan”

    LOL

    this is it here
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0AXgaFqEas

  4. Lowetide says:

    Via Aivis Kalnins (KHL Insider)

    CSKA Moscow have acquired rights to Anton Slepyshev from Salavat Julaev UFA. Slepyshev is expected to sign with the Moscow team.

  5. The Trade Guy says:

    Lowetide:
    Via Aivis Kalnins (KHL Insider)

    CSKA Moscow have acquired rights to Anton Slepyshev from Salavat Julaev UFA. Slepyshev is expected to sign with the Moscow team.

    Booo!

  6. Wilde says:

    Goodbye again, useful Anton.

  7. Wilde says:

    So uh, Joel Farabee’s estimated primary points per 60 is 4.01.

    Four point oh one.

  8. Wilde says:

    Seriously think this guy is great. So many shorthanded chances, scores all his goals 10 feet from the net.

    Great fit, great two-way player.

    Probably one BU season and maybe an AHL start of the next one from being a solid NHL middle six guy who can PK and put up 15 goals and 40-45 points and move up from there onto 97 or 29’s line.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Wilde:
    So uh, Joel Farabee’s estimated primary points per 60 is 4.01.

    Four point oh one.

    I moved him up to No. 10 on my list, the closer I look at Farabee the more I wonder if he’s maybe a guy who is going to surprise by being chosen early.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Kalnins

    What are the line construction among the three high-end guys, Whalstrom, Hughes and Fabaree?

    Who has been playing with who?

  11. Wilde says:

    Lowetide: I moved him up to No. 10 on my list, the closer I look at Farabee the more I wonder if he’s maybe a guy who is going to surprise by being chosen early.

    Yeah, doing comps someone he looks good up against is Clayton Keller, and the same happened to him where Arizona came in.

    Clayton Keller had some eye-test candy allure on video though, dazzling talent.

    When I was just going off of scouting reports and video, Farabee looked and was spoken about like a 2W guy.

    The numbers suggest he has first-line potential though.

  12. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: What are the line construction among the three high-end guys, Whalstrom, Hughes and Fabaree?

    Who has been playing with who?

    Far as I’m aware, Hughes was slotted onto Wahlstrom’s line halfway through the year, not sure who the third was perhaps Caufield.

    From video, the third was Farabee at the U18’s.

  13. Wilde says:

    Small update on one of the misfits: Mike Sullivan, in response to a question about who’s coming up for Zach Aston-Reese, who’s out with a demolished cranium, said Daniel Sprong is ‘an option’.

    He was their leading AHL scorer with 65 pts in 65 games, if he is passed over for first call-up again, that is a tell.

    Hagelin may be back from injury, which will then rob us of this opportunity to get a read on the Penguin’s view of Sprong.

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    Seriously think this guy is great. So many shorthanded chances, scores all his goals 10 feet from the net.

    Great fit, great two-way player.

    Probably one BU season and maybe an AHL start of the next one from being a solid NHL middle six guy who can PK and put up 15 goals and 40-45 points and move up from there onto 97 or 29’s line.

    Thanks for that. I haven’t watched Farabee at all and was worried that he was being zoomed by Wahlstrom and Hughes – both of whom are more highly regarded. I probably prefer a few others still, but it sounds like he has legit skill.

  15. sliderule says:

    Wilde,

    Farabee was the best all around forward at u18 tournament

    My recall he was playing on second line in the first few games and was moved up with Hughes /Wahlstrom to give them cover with his defence.

    He was on the number one penalty kill unit a was given the tough unglamorous net front position on power play

    In the previous years u18 he scored a couple of goals in the final to give USA victory so he has clutch in his resume

    Terrific skater and emerging size at 6-0 and170 lbs will play in NHL at draft plus two

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