Extra Texture (Read all about it)

Last summer, during my “The Davenport Hotel” look at every Oilers prospect and where they were heading in 2017-18, I wrote the following about Jesse Puljujarvi:

  • Destination 2017-18: NHL from the start, if he scores well he’ll be here until 2030 and beyond. Peter Chiarelli wants Jesse Puljujarvi in the everyday lineup and inside the top 9F. No doubt in my mind based on Edmonton’s moves this week. If Puljujarvi can score 20 goals this coming season, the Oilers will have made the right bet all down the line. Source

That was July 3, and at the end of the month (during my RE series) I projected Puljujarvi to score 14 goals and 28 points in 65 games with Edmonton. The big Finn played in exactly 65 games, scored 12 goals and 20 points.

THE ATHLETIC!

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There are all kinds of good arrows for Jesse Puljujarvi, here are a few:

  • His 10 5×5 goals rank him No. 5 among Oilers forwards.
  • His .74 goals per 60 at 5×5 ranks him No. 4 among Oilers forwards (200+ minutes).
  • Led Oilers forwards in shots per 60 (200+ minutes) with 9.27.
  • Led Oilers forwards in rebounds created per 60 (200+ minutes) with 1.25.
  • Natural Stat Trick

Edmonton needs JP to emerge as a quality NHL player, whatever that may be in his case. I’ve said all along we might be looking at a quality scorer or a quality two-way outscorer, but whatever that looks like the club needs him pushing every night beginning in October. Puljujarvi after two seasons has a lot in common as an offensive player with the good (Mike Cammalleri, Jaden Schwartz, Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund) and the not so good (Taylor Pyatt, Nikita Filatov, Alex Nylander). A big year ahead. I have Rob Vollman on the Lowdown today to discuss Puljujarvi’s comparables and possible future.

HERE COMES THE SUN (REVISITED)

Every draft morning since the McDavid edition I publish a “Here comes the Sun” post. It includes my rankings for that draft, a few notes and basically serves as a comment post until the team makes a selection. I’m not sure the Oilers will pick on the Friday night but I’ll continue the tradition in the hopes the teams adds to a list that includes Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto.

Today, I’d like to go back to that list of 150 players from a season ago and see the names who didn’t get picked, and if they still warrant draft consideration.

  • No. 68: RD Artyom Minulin, Swfit Current Broncos (WHL). Big defender, math liked him and the verbal on his coverage was solid. He had the identical season with Swift Current and remains eligible for this season.
  • No. 72: L Jacob Tortora, U.S. National Deveopment Team (USHL). Speedy skill winger lacked size and little else. He moved on to Boston College (34, 6-7-13) and is draft eligible.
  • No. 74: L Kevin Hancock, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). He had a fine offensive season and repeated it this year. Small and skilled, he’s a guy who probably gets a contract if he doesn’t get drafted.
  • No. 77: R Emil Oksanen, Espoo (Mestis). Skill winger, another math darling and he moved over to North American for 2017-18. He played for the Regina Pats (58, 16-32-48) and he might get drafted this summer.
  • No. 95: L Ivan Kosorenkov, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Offensive winger from Russia, average in size but a 34-goal score in 2016-17. Scored 36 this season.
  • No. 96: LD Rickard Hugg, Leksands (SuperElite). Intelligent two-way defender, he moved over to North America (Kitchener) this season and played well.

There are more from my list of one year ago, we’ll touch on those names before draft day. Among the group listed here, I would suggest Kosorenkov and his goal scoring prowess would rank as the most likely player to be chosen this time.

-Stuart Skinner-

WHAT ABOUT A GOALIE?

Edmonton has been drafting goalies often since Peter Chiarelli arrived in 2015 (three in three years) and maybe we’ll see it again. There’s a bottleneck forming with Dylan Wells and Stuart Skinner both turning pro this fall, Edmonton may want to draft a goalie who is potentially five years out like Purpura on the list below.

  1. Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech). Big goalie, calm feet and plays angles well.
  2. Oliver Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL). Athletic butterfly goalie (via Elite Prospects). Outstanding at U18’s.
  3. Lukas Dostal, Brno (Czech). Average size, less developed than Skarek.
  4. Olof Lindbom, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Great glove, he’s a July 2000 so one of the youngest goalies in this draft.
  5. Christian Propp, North Bay (OHL). Played well after trade in front of a chaotic team.
  6. Justus Annunen, Karpat (Sm-Liiga Jr). Good size, calm, big. Good numbers.
  7. Roman Durny, Des Moines (USHL). Not much on him, good numbers going back awhile.
  8. Vincent Purpura, Omaha (USHL). Hugh goalie, .916SP, off to Boston College eventually. Fits Oilers at this position because he is a draft and follow (heading to college 2019).
  9. Joel Hofer, Swift Current (WHL). Solid rookie season for the Broncos.
  10. Keegan Karki, Muskegon (USHL). Big goalie had more buzz about him a year ago, consistency may be an issue.

At some point, blaming the players simply isn’t enough. The failure of Edmonton’s procurement department over many years includes bad bets and obscure alternatives, but holy lord these kids died on the vine 10 at a time in the AHL. Godspeed, Jay Woodcroft, there has to be a better way. I suggest playing these prospects. Crazy train idea, maybe it works.

STORY/NOT A STORY

I’ve been hesitant to write about this because it isn’t a story and probably won’t be one, but it could be. Kind of like an offer sheet. Edmonton has four men (Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera, Cam Talbot and Kris Russell) with varying degrees of no-trade clauses. All spring (and probably all summer) we have to tack on a line to any trade idea that says “and maybe one of the NTC’s will agree to a move” because it’s out there.

There’s a lot of evidence piling up now. Edmonton spent $2.5 million on a backup goalie, the Darnell Nurse contract could go well into the $4 million+ range per season, we don’t know what the costs are on Ryan Strome. I posted two distinct rosters yesterday, one that brought everyone back and another that sent away several players. At this point, I wonder who is leaving.

Oscar Klefbom? Cam Talbot? Andrej Sekera? Milan Lucic? Kris Russell? I think that’s the list folks, from what I can see. Or they can buy out Sekera or Russell. I believe my math is correct here, Oilers have to send away at least one $4 million man in order to get things done. The absolute tightest screw they could manage would be Nurse bridge, Strome one year, trading Oscar for a similar cap hit and let the river run on right wing. That’s not Chiarelli’s style.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Thursday on the show, all kinds of happenings. TSN1260, 10 this morning, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouth Sports. Winnipeg Jets are rocking in the playoffs, best analysts, Jays hanging in.
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP. Oil Kings have the No. 1 overall pick in today’s WHL bantam draft, do they make the pick or deal it?
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. We’ll talk Jesse Puljujarvi and his future.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Capitals-Penguins may be flipping the script.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

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152 Responses to "Extra Texture (Read all about it)"

  1. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – All of Sek, Lucic Russel and Talbot are bona-fide NHL’ers. All but Russel dissappointed last year.

    – The delta of cost moving any of them out and the “savings” that could result in bringing in other bona-fide NHL’ers: at best your digging a hole and filling it in IMO, especially after poor years

    – Untill we develop better D, forwards and G internally, those 4 are not going anywhere, because we don’t have players better than them (and the reality of the structure of contracts)

    – Maybe Lucic’s back is done and he gets LTIR’d. Maybe Sek’s knee is done and he gets LTIR’d

    – Maybe at the deadline, if any other goalie than Talbot steps up, Talbot gets traded away

    – Russel is still a NHL D: and we don’t have one better in the wings

    – None of these players are “value contracts”, but they are real players. Sure in fantasy hockey we’d all want better players for cheaper, and less term and out clauses. It is what it is.

    – Yesterday, you had the two scenarios where it was status quo-ish, or the OEL one noone would like: in both of those scenarios, there was enough money @ $80MM (not to mention $82MM)

    * Re: Chia’s style: was last year, where he “didn’t do enough”, yet everyone was saying we were a Cup team. You must be hearing whispers about whale-hunting. Then what you say makes sense

  2. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – All of Sek, Lucic Russel and Talbot are bona-fide NHL’ers. All but Russel dissappointed last year.

    – The delta of cost moving any of them out and the “savings” that could result in bringing in other bona-fide NHL’ers: at best your digging a hole and filling it in IMO, especially after poor years

    – Untill we develop better D, forwards and G internally, those 4 are not going anywhere, because we don’t have players better than them (and the reality of the structure of contracts)

    – Maybe Lucic’s back is done and he gets LTIR’d.Maybe Sek’s knee is done and he gets LTIR’d

    – Maybe at the deadline, if any other goalie than Talbot steps up, Talbot gets traded away

    – Russel is still a NHL D: and we don’t have one better in the wings

    – None of these players are “value contracts”, but they are real players.Sure in fantasy hockey we’d all want better players for cheaper, and less term and out clauses.It is what it is.

    – Yesterday, you had the two scenarios where it was status quo-ish, or the OEL one noone would like: in both of those scenarios, there was enough money @ $80MM (not to mention $82MM)

    In the first scenario, the song remained the same. In the second, Oscar Klefbom and his contract left for one year of OEL. I understand the idea of defending PC, I loved that Stanley in Boston. But he has painted himself into a corner and that’s a fact.

  3. Halfwise says:

    Lucic remains a wild card in terms of contribution and market value. Waive the NMC? Train more for the new NHL?

    I agree that Talbot is a trade chip, which shows how fleeting the limelight can be.

    PC has developed a past, hasn’t he? My wishful thinking from the McDeity draft year has turned out like always.

  4. Wilde says:

    **repost from this morning:

    Small update on one of the misfits: Mike Sullivan, in response to a question about who’s coming up for Zach Aston-Reese, who’s out with a demolished cranium, said Daniel Sprong is ‘an option’.
    He was their leading AHL scorer with 65 pts in 65 games, if he is passed over for first call-up again, that is a tell.

    Hagelin may be back from injury, which will then rob us of this opportunity to get a read on the Penguin’s view of Sprong.

  5. tileguy says:

    Re JP and his 9.27 shots per 60. I would suggest that 6.27 of those shots were muffins that did not create goals, rebounds or anything considered dangerous, just a stop in play. Could this be a sign that he is not seeing the ice, or a lack of hockey IQ? Is this something coaching can correct?

  6. Wilde says:

    tileguy,

    He likes to force faceoffs with shots and things like that.

    May be coached, but if it’s not then it’s not and is likely one of the reasons Todd doesn’t like him.

    Personally I like the play most of the time.

  7. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: In the first scenario, the song remained the same. In the second, Oscar Klefbom and his contract left for one year of OEL. I understand the idea of defending PC, I loved that Stanley in Boston. But he has painted himself into a corner and that’s a fact.

    – To be sure: entering his 4rth year as GM, he’s “put himself into a corner” as you point it

    – All Manager’s into their 4rth year, they are ultimately going to be held accountable. (Just like at some point the new goverment can’t blame the previous one for the current problems).

    – Your probably right, and he’s done after this this season. I suspect getting to the 2nd round of the playoffs won’t be enough. Many have pointed to his mistakes and are resolute: there is no result that will atone for his mistakes. Fair enough. Next year we will have a new GM: hope he does better

  8. Pink Socks says:

    A question for the smart people, Koskinen is waivers exempt, so how much of his salary is against the cap if he starts the season in the AHL?

  9. Brantford Boy says:

    Lowetide: In the first scenario, the song remained the same. In the second, Oscar Klefbom and his contract left for one year of OEL. I understand the idea of defending PC, I loved that Stanley in Boston. But he has painted himself into a corner and that’s a fact.

    Painted? It’s more like watching Bugs Bunny’s masonry work with brick and mortar on Sunday morning… I would really love to see Chiarelli’s big picture plan, right now all I can picture is Forrest Gump reading Curious George to his son waiting for the bus… I am however optimistic our ‘NHL vets’ regress back to there formal selves… but I’m also pretty sure our 10th pick is going to another team…

  10. Rafa Nadal says:

    For those of you draft savvy posters, any predictions of which team in front of us goes off the board to grab Kotkaniemi or Veleno or someone else? Trying to figure out scenarios in which we’re able to snag Dobson, Smith or another of the top 5-6 defenceman this year.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – To be sure: entering his 4rth year as GM, he’s “put himself into a corner” as you point it

    – All Manager’s into their 4rth year, they are ultimately going to be held accountable.(Just like at some point the new goverment can’t blame the previous one for the current problems).

    – Your probably right, and he’s done after this this season.I suspect getting to the 2nd round of the playoffs won’t be enough.Many have pointed to his mistakes and are resolute: there is no result that will atone for his mistakes.Fair enough.Next year we will have a new GM: hope he does better

    I would only disagree with the last point. The Oilers need to make the playoffs, probably win a round, but that would be enough (imo) for Katz to retain.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    For those of you draft savvy posters, any predictions of which team in front of us goes off the board to grab Kotkaniemi or Veleno or someone else? Trying to figure out scenarios in which we’re able to snag Dobson, Smith or another of the top 5-6 defenceman this year.

    I would have said Montreal for the Finnish center, will say Detroit grabs Dobson if Bouchard is gone.

  13. Woogie63 says:

    Lowetide: In the first scenario, the song remained the same. In the second, Oscar Klefbom and his contract left for one year of OEL. I understand the idea of defending PC, I loved that Stanley in Boston. But he has painted himself into a corner and that’s a fact.

    I spent a full day fishing in a small boat with a NHL GM last year (My buddy has the cottage across the bay) with a certain GM in a small Canadian market east of Edmonton.

    That man felt “painted” in the corner, and a number of times he said the team needed key players to perform, and was worried his latest FA goalie needed to contribute.

    Painted in the corner comes with playing close the cap.

  14. SwedishPoster says:

    Wilde:
    tileguy,

    He likes to force faceoffs with shots and things like that.

    May be coached, but if it’s not then it’s not and is likely one of the reasons Todd doesn’t like him.

    Personally I like the play most of the time.

    I think part of it’s coached but part is confidence, when confidence is lacking some players tend to shoot whenever there’s an opening instead of taking an extra stride, hold on to the puck, make a move to change the angle before shooting or simply crash the net.

    Watching the Oilers under McLellan imo it’s pretty clear they are being coached to shoot early and often. Wouldn’t be odd for a young player low on confidence to overdo it in an attempt to please the coach instead of being more creative.

  15. Jaxon says:

    I think if buyouts are going to happen it will have to be Russell. Lucic is buyout proof. In the decision between Sekera and Russell, Russell saves a lot this season when the Oilers need the cap room most. He’ll only be a $600k cap hit if bought out and will save about $3.4M. Next year will be a bit tougher but the next cap increase should take care of most of that. The biggest thing to consider between the two is the structure of their NMCs. Russell’s becomes a Modified No Trade Clause with a No MOVE clause, while Sekera’s becomes a modified No TRADE clause only. This means that Russell would have to be protected in the 2020 expansion draft while Sekera wouldn’t. This is huge. I think Russell might already be untradable. The closer we get to the expansion draft the more difficult it will be to trade him. Will many GMs want to take on his NMC that close to the draft? He’s also $4M for a 2nd to 3rd pair D, which is a bit high. Russell and his agent could also easily game his 10 team trade list by only picking teams with 3 better D they must protect. It would suck to keep Russell and have to protect him over one of Klefbom, Nurse or Larsson. I guess they could buy him out right before the draft, but if they need to buy someone out now anyway it might as well be Russell.

  16. edwards_daddy says:

    Lowetide: In the first scenario, the song remained the same. In the second, Oscar Klefbom and his contract left for one year of OEL. I understand the idea of defending PC, I loved that Stanley in Boston. But he has painted himself into a corner and that’s a fact.

    Didn’t he paint himself into a corner in Boston – pretty much the same way? This time he’s done it before he’s won a Stanley.

  17. ArmchairGM says:

    It’s possible to bring everyone back (I didn’t include UFA’s like Cammy, Auvitu, etc.) for about $77M (plus bonuses), but then you’re counting on Health and Development to take you to the playoffs. If there were some fresh deployment ideas forthcoming it might work, but Tmac is staying so that’s not a great bet. This is also depending on Yamamoto and a farmhand to play bottom-6 roles.

    A quiet summer would be best, with Chairelli just filling in around the edges. Next summer Sekera and Russell become much more tradeable ($9.5M out) and there are some great defensemen on the UFA market which won’t require asset spending. That’s the time to make a big move, IMO.

  18. Dustylegnd says:

    Brantford Boy: Painted?It’s more like watching Bugs Bunny’s masonry work with brick and mortar on Sunday morning… I would really love to see Chiarelli’s big picture plan, right now all I can picture is Forrest Gump reading Curious George to his son waiting for the bus… I am however optimistic our ‘NHL vets’ regress back to there formal selves… but I’m also pretty sure our 10th pick is going to another team…

    I would hope his Big Picture plan would be as follows:

    a) Get really good at draft and develop it is the only way teams experience sustained success

    b) Grind out better value contracts at every opportunity with all Oilers players

    c) Recognize that “Big Ticket” free agents are rarely the answer to long term success re Stanley cups, yes Chia hit with Chara and won a cup, Detroit, Chicago, LA, Pitts won with a draft and develop strategy

    d) crush the next 3 drafts and impose complete and total control upon the AHL coach and the handling of players less than 22 years old

    e) take advantage of other organizations trading for need

    Microsoft has enjoyed much success on the back of “reverse engineering”, if Chia just does the opposite of what has done with the Oilers, the expected outcome should be very favourable

  19. dustrock says:

    Lowetide: I would have said Montreal for the Finnish center, will say Detroit grabs Dobson if Bouchard is gone.

    Montreal needs a center but I don’t know if they pick Kotkaniemi at 3. Wonder if they’d trade down?

    Detroit I don’t know enough about their prospects but with Hughes being a Michigan boy, had a feeling they’d be looking hard at him.

    Rangers are also tough to figure.

  20. slopitch says:

    Isnt the play to sign a few college guys, maybe another Jokinen (and hope for better results) and to keep the picks while burning off a year of Russel and Sekera’s NMC? Build for being a contender in 2020. The alternative is Lucic + 10th overall for a 7th round pick. Which sucks, Oilers dont have the prospect depth to trade away a pick with that much potential. And that play is likely to be another long term drag on the team.

    The Oilers are like the Jets. They have to overpay in free agency due to non hockey reasons. The only way to build a team is from within with astute drafting and lots of bullets. The Jets figured this out. The Oilers lucked their way to McDavid but refuse to read the writing on the wall. The Oilers doing nothing but drafting this year is a good sign imo. 2019 can be a development year and still make the playoffs. Of JP, Yamo, Marody, Jones, Bear, DC, JJ some will falter but they really need these bets to pay off. Because they dont have prospect depth and they dont have cap space.

  21. Ribs says:

    Oscar Klefbom? Cam Talbot? Andrej Sekera? Milan Lucic? Kris Russell? I think that’s the list folks, from what I can see.

    Curious… It would be pretty difficult to replace Talbot. That would likely be Chiarelli pushing all of his chips across the table trying to win the big blind.

    …But maybe Koskinen and Hammond can get it done! Oooh boy.

  22. Rondo says:

    dustrock: Montreal needs a center but I don’t know if they pick Kotkaniemi at 3.Wonder if they’d trade down?

    Detroit I don’t know enough about their prospects but with Hughes being a Michigan boy, had a feeling they’d be looking hard at him.

    Rangers are also tough to figure.

    Marc Bergevin job security is on shaky ground, it would be a huge risk picking Kotkaniemi at #3. He won’t be in the NHL next year. I think they will go with the safe pick Zadina or Tkachuk.

    If Oilers pick a forward Kotkaniemi would be my first pick and Barrett Hayton would be my second.

  23. geowal says:

    JP has a high “rebounds per 60 at 1.25…”…is that a new stat? I hadn’t heard of it before.

    Lots of questions: 1.25 doesn’t really sound like a lot to me, but I have no feel for it…what kind of range is there to this? Who is great (or bad) at it? Arena effects, like hits? Does it correlate to…more goals? Bad shooting %? Bad luck/pdo? Save %? High shot totals, etc?

    Thanks in advance to any who have enough grounding in it to answer.

  24. godot10 says:

    Russian who aren’t drafted in the first round are not likely to be drafted because they can earn more money in the KHL than in the AHL learning their craft.

    Why spend 4 years in Bakersfield when one can earn more at home in the KHL? And come over later.

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    Pink Socks:
    A question for the smart people, Koskinen is waivers exempt, so how much of his salary is against the cap if he starts the season in the AHL?

    About $1.5M

  26. godot10 says:

    tileguy:
    Re JP and his 9.27 shots per 60. I would suggest that 6.27 of those shots were muffins that did not create goals, rebounds or anything considered dangerous, just a stop in play. Could this be a sign that he is not seeing the ice, or a lack of hockey IQ? Is this something coaching can correct?

    The problems with Puljujarvi are mostly the incompetent coaching of this player. The coach is back.

  27. godot10 says:

    SwedishPoster: I think part of it’s coached but part is confidence, when confidence is lacking some players tend to shoot whenever there’s an opening instead of taking an extra stride, hold on to the puck, make a move to change the angle before shooting or simply crash the net.

    Watching the Oilers under McLellan imo it’s pretty clear they are being coached to shoot early and often. Wouldn’t be odd for a young player low on confidence to overdo it in an attempt to please the coach instead of being more creative.

    Yep…the coach coaches Puljujarvi to emphasize his weaknesses, rather than coaching him to emphasize his strengths. Puljujarvi is an all around player whose strength is really playmaking, but he is not encouraged to make plays.

  28. Pink Socks says:

    godot10: The problems with Puljujarvi are mostly the incompetent coaching of this player. The coach is back.

    Agreed. You can’t coach a young player to toss pucks at the net to create faceoffs and then be pissed that the young man has no confidence in his finishing ability. That and saddling him with the scoring prowess of Milan Lucic and refusing to give extended looks with 97 and 29 should be a fireable offense in their own right.

  29. Pink Socks says:

    ArmchairGM: About $1.5M

    Thanks for that. Boggles the mind how the $2.5m backup in a tight cap year was the best plan.

  30. Pink Socks says:

    Lowetide: I would have said Montreal for the Finnish center, will say Detroit grabs Dobson if Bouchard is gone.

    I dunno. I think Montreal either grabs Zadina or reaches and takes Veleno. And Detroit I would bet something significant takes the hometown boy Hughes.

  31. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: The problems with Puljujarvi are mostly the incompetent coaching of this player. The coach is back.

    The problems with Puljujarvi is he did something to piss off the braintrust last year. Needs to learn his lesson and not do it again this year

  32. CopaFrank says:

    I was okish with most of Chiarelli’s moves or at least allowed myself to see both sides, but when i saw yesterday that Colorado signed Francouz for $690K that was the last straw. His numbers were better than Koskinen, how does he rationalize paying him $2.5 million?

  33. commonfan29 says:

    Lowetide: I understand the idea of defending PC

    LT is a far more understanding person than me, because I really can’t understand anyone still doing this.

    Thought Experiment:
    If another team had recruited PC after the McDavid lottery and made a deal to pay him double his salary for the next 15 years if he acted as a sleeper agent to destroy the long-term future of the Oilers, with the only restriction being that he couldn’t make it so obvious that it could lead to an investigation that would uncover the deal, what would that have looked like the last three years?

  34. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide: I would have said Montreal for the Finnish center, will say Detroit grabs Dobson if Bouchard is gone.

    Håkan Andersson was interviewed in swedish media during the U18s and seemed to actively try and tone down his interest in Boqvist. If my reading between the lines skills are anything to write home about I’d say they are pretty damn high on him.

  35. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Yep…the coach coaches Puljujarvi to emphasize his weaknesses, rather than coaching him to emphasize his strengths.Puljujarvi is an all around player whose strength is really playmaking, but he is not encouraged to make plays.

    I don’t see a problem with Puljajarvi. He is 19 and it sounds like a young 19, I had one of those running around my house at one time.

    When we first saw him,

    He skated so well he did not have to stop and start and didn’t take more direct defensive angles versus his peer group – this not really an issue today

    He was consistently was off balance and falling on board battles – He winning battles now

    He was consistently reaching with his stick, at the pro level you are basically off balance – basically stopped

    He has progressed from the AHL, to 4th line, to 3rd line and will probably plan the 2nd line next year.

    This guy is going to be way more than “just a playmaker”, he is being built to be very complete power forward.

    Jesse needs to grab all this support and make it work in the game …. the coach is doing his job

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’ll probably be the last guy off this train, but I honestly don’t think Lucic is done as a player.

    The quality that made Lucic so feared by opponents and desired by GMs in this league is that he played like Esa Tikkanen in Semenko’s body. In short, Milan is effective when he’s unpredictable and playing with an extreme edge. Being an a-hole on the ice gave Lucic that extra little bit of skating room that made up for the lack of foot speed. I can’t tell you the amount of times I saw an opposing player mysteriously lose speed rather than contest a puck battle along the boards when he was a Bruin.

    Last season, for whatever reason, he lost that edge and unpredictability. The mantra on this player used to be ‘don’t wake the sleeping bear.’ Now it might as well be, ‘he’s in permanent hibernation.’

    Milan probably doesn’t want to face it at this age, but he prospers in this league when opponents are scared of him, and opponents are scared of him when he shows a propensity to drop the mitts and/or take liberties on a regular basis.

    This is MacLellan’s mission. How do you re-establish Lucic as a holy terror? The answer may be a couple early trips to the press box when he’s not playing with an edge.

    Look at the way Byfuglien is playing right now. That’s exactly what Milan needs to re-instill in his game imo.

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    commonfan29: LT is a far more understanding person than me, because I really can’t understand anyone still doing this.

    Thought Experiment:
    If another team had recruited PC after the McDavid lottery and made a deal to pay him double his salary for the next 15 years if he acted as a sleeper agent to destroy the long-term future of the Oilers, with the only restriction being that he couldn’t make it so obvious that it could lead to an investigation that would uncover the deal, what would that have looked like the last three years?

    I suspect many of the posters who still defend Chiarelli do so because they appreciate that the ‘Red Wine Summits’ are a thing, and the OBC groupthink dysfunction in this organization may still be a factor impeding the efforts of more capable men.

  38. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’ll probably be the last guy off this train, but I honestly don’t think Lucic is done as a player.

    I’m with you. I think even if Lucic rebounds next year, he will still be overpaid, but I don’t think he’s done. From what I heard he sounded pretty embarrassed with his performance this season so hopefully that lights a fire under him. But he’s not alone I don’t think as a lot of players this season took a bit of a step back, I think this season is an outlier, just like 2016-2017 was. I think the true Oilers are somewhere inbetween this year and last year in terms of performance. Lucic and others have more to give and here’s hoping they will this upcoming season.

  39. Oil2Oilers says:

    Lucic for Pacioretty would solve a long term contract issue and a short term skilled players on the wing issue.

    The only other way I see out of the Lucic deal is trading Yamamoto to Seattle for them to take Lucic (he could commute from White Rock) and otherwise leave our team alone.

  40. Rafa Nadal says:

    Pink Socks,

    Where does that leave us for off the board picks? We’re basically hoping Montreal takes Veleno or the Finnish Centre. Detroit is probably grabbing Hughes or Dobson, and the Blackhawks strike me as a team in desperate need of quality prospect defensemen. Maybe the Rangers? Excited to see how it all breaks down on draft day.

  41. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Next summer Sekera and Russell become much more tradeable

    I’m not sure Russell will become more tradeable. His NMC contines to the end of his contract. He has an added modified no trade clause that kicks in next summer but the NMC remains. I’m not sure many GMs will want to protect him for expansion rather than one their other top 3 D. And Russell might be able to ‘game’ his trade list with teams that have 3 good D that need to be protected.

  42. frjohnk says:

    *phone rings*

    Chiarelli picks up wrong end of phone and puts it to his ear

    “hello…….hello?”

    *covers ear part of phone with hand and says to MacT*

    “something is wrong with this damn phone again”

    MacT ” yeah, that shit happened to me alot when I was in that chair. They still have not fixed it, even after moving into a new building, thats crazy.” MacT goes back to blowing soap bubbles.

    *A Janitor happens to walk by and notices Chiarelli is having trouble with the phone*

    “uhh, sir, you have the phone upside down again”

    Chiarelli as he fumbles with the phone, “uh thank you” and then talks into the proper end of the phone “hello”

    Guy on other end ” oh hi, I was just about the hang up. This is Mikko Kostinens agent. Just wanted to finalize contract deals with you.”

    Chiarelli ” thank you for getting back to me. Now I know that Mikko’s last contract in the KHL was for $2.6M. We are going to have to play a bit of hardball here and let you know that we are only going to give him $2.5M.”

    Just as MK’s agent says “O…..K, you know that KHL contract was over 2 years? so it was actually $1.3M per year, we were looking to get a total of $2.5M over 2 years in the NHL.”
    MacT motions to Chiarelli and tells him ” hey look at this bubble, its as big as a basketball”
    Chiarelli laughs at MacT and then says on the phone “uh, sorry, I did not get all of that, but we are going to very firm, we are only looking at giving him $2.5M over 1 year.

    MK’s agent ” O….K, wow that is better than any other offer. Thank you very much, that is very generous.

    Chiarelli ” hey, do you think Mikko would like a NMC? I know I played a bit of hardball in terms of money, but in good faith, I have no problem giving him a NMC.

    MK’s agent ” I dont think that is possible, Mikko is not eligible for a NMC.”

    Chiarelli, ” hmmmm, well, I just throw a NMC on all contracts,NHL, AHL, some of them stick, some of them dont, not sure how they really work. I like Mikko, he is big. I’ll make sure I throw one in Mikko’s contract. Heck, maybe I’ll even throw in 2 NMC’s, he is pretty big, I like that.

    MK’s agent, O……K, well just send the contract over and I’ll get Mikko to sign it as soon as possible.

    Chiarelli ” its on its way, bye” *hangs up the phone*

    Chiarelli, ” hey MacT once you put your lens back into your glasses after blowing bubbles can you go to the board and put a big check mark beside goaltending under THE PLAN. Also we need to get that Janitor guy to send a fax again.”

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: In the first scenario, the song remained the same. In the second, Oscar Klefbom and his contract left for one year of OEL. I understand the idea of defending PC, I loved that Stanley in Boston. But he has painted himself into a corner and that’s a fact.

    Such a simple solution. Don’t give NMC to anyone but Connor. It’s not worth it, don’t sign them or trade them if they have to have it. The contract dollars aren’t nearly as bad as having no options.

  44. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    pure gold.

    Thank you

  45. flea says:

    I wonder if Koskinen has a KHL out clause – if he doesn’t amke the team , he heads back to the KHL. Maybe this would only hit the Oilers for $500,000k on the cap (the bonus) but I could be wrong. Montoya and Koskinen (and Talbot) will duke it out in TC.

  46. PokeCheck says:

    Pink Socks:
    A question for the smart people, Koskinen is waivers exempt, so how much of his salary is against the cap if he starts the season in the AHL?

    I can’t imagine Chiarelli holding on to the GM position if Koskinen gets beaten out by Montoya for the backup position. Al will probably get ‘Kerrigan-ed’ if that even looks like a possible outcome at camp.

  47. McSorley33 says:

    I like Lucic. I like fighting. I like the player. I am hoping ( read Praying ) for a rebound.

    But the pace of the 2nd round of these playoffs is nuts.

    Now, I can buy a case of Looch rebounding in the regular season a bit. ( 3rd line please )

    But, try to picture Looch keeping up to the pace of the 2 Western conference playoff series going on right now.

    I am sorry. I can’t.

    Looch’s inevitable decline is lining up perfectly with the NHL’s trend towards speed and youth.

  48. Pink Socks says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Pink Socks,

    Where does that leave us for off the board picks? We’re basically hoping Montreal takes Veleno or the Finnish Centre. Detroit is probably grabbing Hughes or Dobson, and the Blackhawks strike me as a team in desperate need of quality prospect defensemen. Maybe the Rangers? Excited to see how it all breaks down on draft day.

    Likewise, it will be a very interesting draft day with so many prospects that could go from 3-12.

    I personally would be giddy if Montreal took Zadina and Kotkaniemi was our pick at 10. Detroit I believe will take Hughes, Chicago could go either way. The Habs in their desperation may also take Tkachuk since he is likely in the NHL next year whereas Zadina may need another year of seasoning.

    Either way, ultimately I believe the Oilers’ brass will have to decide between Ty Smith, Kotkaniemi, or Veleno. Any one of these additions is a major add. The worst possible scenario is PC goes full PC and trades the #10 for Faulk. I will be the leader of the pitchfork parade if that happens.

  49. Pink Socks says:

    Side,

    Bag of Pucks,

    I agree with both of you. He isn’t done as a player, and regardless of his contract he is still an Oiler so he must find his role. He must be unleashed back into that unpredictable bear on the ice. Hopefully the HC recognizes this.

  50. russ99 says:

    Chiarelli’s bets on the 1994’s was mostly a failure. You can’t bet on an age group alone because of organizational failures to draft and develop players, and giving NCAA graduates NHL guarantees just compounds the mistake.

    So I don’t see how resigning these players is a certainty, with a cap crunch and the idea of moving players with NMCs pretty unlikely.

    Especially since most young players with NHL experience going into RFA want reasonable raises and one-way deals.

    Nurse is a keeper, I’d dump the rest and sign players with average NHL results for $1-2M closer to the peak age range. Then plan has always been build around the McDavid cluster, but we lost track of the complementary pieces part last summer.

  51. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    flea:
    I wonder if Koskinen has a KHL out clause – if he doesn’t amke the team , he heads back to the KHL. Maybe this would only hit the Oilers for $500,000k on the cap (the bonus) but I could be wrong. Montoya and Koskinen (and Talbot) will duke it out in TC.

    – This is hopefully correct. Koski’s agent would be like: “he’s an elite starter”

    – So the Oil says: “ok if he isn’t we be going Shipachyov on him and he “retires”

    – Agent says: “OK we take that deal, but give us $500K good faith”

    – That would be a good bet. $2.5MM for a sieve that they are stuck with for the year not so much.

  52. russ99 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I suspect many of the posters who still defend Chiarelli do so because they appreciate that the ‘Red Wine Summits’ are a thing, and the OBC groupthink dysfunction in this organization may still be a factor impeding the efforts of more capable men.

    Nail meet head. There’s lots of evidence pointing to this.

    This and the strategy of building a team to beat the Pacific teams and Nashville/Winnipeg in the postseason while the McDavid cluster produces a lions share of the postseason offense is still a sound strategy, it’s the execution that’s been the problem.

  53. Brantford Boy says:

    Pink Socks: I will be the leader of the pitchfork parade if that happens.

    Do you prefer wooden or fiberglass handles?

  54. dustrock says:

    Just reposting this from HFBoards user Digger12:

    Not sure if anyone cares or not, but here’s a rough synopsis of the interview Stauffer did with Bob Green yesterday during Oilers Now.

    -Thinks a good player will be availabe at 10, but doesn’t think it’s a particular deep draft overall.
    -Will be doing their team meetings starting next week to iron out their final draft list.
    -Green agreed with Stauffer that after the first 4 names in the draft (Dahlin/Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk), there could be a lot of variance from team to team on what names they have ranked between 5-10.

    -Stauffer brought up forwards Walstrom and Kotkaniemi given their work in the U18 tourney, Green agreed that they could be expected to go in the top 12 in the draft.

    -Dmen Hughes/Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist were brought up, Green said any of them would be a great pick if one was available at 10, and that they all impact the game in slightly different ways.

    -Considers the handedness of a dman more of a ‘tiebreaker’ when comparing dmen of equal ability, doesn’t buy that you should take a RD if it means taking a lesser player.

    -Regarding Ty Smith, said his offensive numbers were outstanding and that he’s a left hand shooting dman who’s more comfortable playing the right side. Liked his elusiveness, said he’s hard to hit. Stauffer brought up the Kris Russell comparison (smallish dman who put up big numbers in the WHL), Green replied that Russell absorbed a lot of physical punishment in junior which is something Smith has evaded.

    -Green confirmed that they do make use of analytics when making draft day decisions, said it was a valuable tool.

    -Stauffer brought up Joe Veleno’s U18 and thought his hockey sense was a bit lacking, Green replied that 17 year olds can look like that because they’re used to doing everything off the rush…said it’s something that’ll likely improve with experience.

  55. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: In the first scenario, the song remained the same. In the second, Oscar Klefbom and his contract left for one year of OEL. I understand the idea of defending PC, I loved that Stanley in Boston. But he has painted himself into a corner and that’s a fact.

    I could be wrong……but three things could affect your stated concern (in a positive way)

    In your second chart if you
    1) Substitute Ryan Ellis for OEL..next years cap comes down by $3million $5.5 for OEL $2.5 for Ellis
    2) Vanek is/was currently on a contract with Vancouver at $2m AVV. You have him in at $3.5 million. If we can give him a raise and still get him at $2.5M that is another $1m off the chart

    That would be $4m in cap space with an $80m cap for 2018-19.

    3) And if the cap goes to $82m, You could sign Nurse Long Term( $4.8M and still have $4.5m in cap space…thats after paying for Koskinen, Derek Ryan, Vanek, Magnus Pajarvi….

    That takes you to 2019-20 where both Sekera and Russell contracts go from NO MOVE to limited no trade….one of these guys gets moved.

    Not nitpicking the details here…..just looks like a scenario exists based on chart two.. that “eleviates” the problem/concern

    Please dont quote me buecause Im not certain, but I have a recollection that Bob Stauffer recently brought up Ryan Ellis in a “What If” type of hypothetical.

  56. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock,

    Most of what im saying here is my impression and is specualation on my part:

    I heard Bob Green recently (yesterday) and everything he said had a ring to it that suggested that they intend to make the pick. Sounded like they saw the value in this draft in the top 12 to 13 picks. Well within thier range. AND he sounded as open to picking a forward as a defensmen. If I heard him correctly it sounded like the tiers they have created for themselves……dont include a tier that cuts off at 9. Meaning I got the impression they had the guys ( and I wont get the number exactly accurate) from 7/8 to 10/11 all in the same tier.

    If this is accurate then they feel certain there is great value at 10 no matter who goes in the first nine.

    If I take that logic one step further…..we could say picking at 10 has the same value to Green/Oilers as picking at 7 or 8.

  57. Andy Dufresne says:

    One factor that I beleive will play into the decison whether to keep or trade the pick is,

    Among all of his advisors, who does Chiarelli trust more. His Pro Scouts Team, or his Amature Scouts Team……the Amature Scouts have a Much better track record.

  58. VOR says:

    geowal:
    JP has a high “rebounds per 60 at 1.25…”…is that a new stat? I hadn’t heard of it before.

    Lots of questions: 1.25 doesn’t really sound like a lot to me, but I have no feel for it…what kind of range is there to this? Who is great (or bad) at it? Arena effects, like hits? Does it correlate to…more goals? Bad shooting %? Bad luck/pdo? Save %? High shot totals, etc?

    Thanks in advance to any who have enough grounding in it to answer.

    You can find the stat at Natural Stat Trick. Typical range for a regular NHL forward would be between 1.86 (Cam Atkinson and Alex Ovechkin territory) and zero (a lot of players). Jesse is 19th among NHL regulars at 1.25.

    Whether it correlates with goals is hard to say. Total rebounds surrendered by a team correlates with the number of goals they give up. Though the last research I saw suggested it was a fairly weak correlation.

    I assume there are teams that convert a high percentage of rebounds into goals and teams that are pretty useless at it. If you asked me to guess I’d say the Oilers are probably closer to the latter than the former. Thus probably Jesse’s ability to generate rebounds would be less important on the Oilers than on a team of net crashers.

    The people on the top of the list tend to be high volume shooters with pretty fair shooting percentages (in other words some of them like Tarazenko and Ovechkin are serious scorers). So probably not bad shoointg percentages or PDO problems. They just have tricky shots for a goaltender to handle.

    There should probably be a juciy rebound per 60 number but you work with what you have. Typically shots off rebounds are high danger scoring chances.

  59. Andy Dufresne says:

    VOR,

    Its very early but Jesse’s natural tendencies on offense seem more like Thomas Holmstrom than Marion Hossa.

    Maybe his powerplay position should be netfront and not left-wing one-timer

    The guy is not overly physical along the boards….but he is much more physical/aggressive in close to the net.

  60. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ouch….Colorado got Goalie Francouz at $690K for one year.

    Similar KHL SV% s to Kostinen I think.

  61. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Ouch….Colorado got Goalie Francouz at $690K for one year.

    Similar KHL SV% s to Kostinen I think.

    – It is not looking very good to be 3.5x. On paper it looks poor. Hard to defend at this point for sure

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pink Socks:
    A question for the smart people, Koskinen is waivers exempt, so how much of his salary is against the cap if he starts the season in the AHL?

    They can bury close to $1M – that applies for all players, waiver exempt or not.

    If Koskinen is in the AHL, we still have a cap hit of apx $1.5M.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    How can the Koskinen signing in any way signal a potential Talbot trade?

    As of right now, the only thing we are assured of is that Koskinen should battle with Montoya for the back-up spot. Although I’m reasonably certain, Koskinen will be in Edmonton come October, we aren’t even assured he outplays Montoya and deserves the roster spot.

  64. --hudson-- says:

    Any readers of the blog have notes on Niklas Nordgren? He was the highest scoring player from the u-18 tournament that is draft eligible this summer with 8 goals and 2 assists in 7 games. Small sample size and all, but that tournament hast to raise his stock, no?
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/league.php?leagueid=WJC-18&season=2017

    #93 on LT’s list
    #21 on Central Scoutings Euro list

    He’s 5’9″, 170 lbs RW, who turns 18 tomorrow. Curious about his speed, hockey IQ, comparables, etc.

  65. Melvis says:

    All of this hockey talk is making me hungry. And thirsty. I’m currently criss crossing my lines prior to the pork butt buried in the fire pit. Sans banana leaves, or some such – i’m weaving “placemats” out of leeks, before a slather of something, the final wrap, and a bit of low and slow into the night. Bourbon and a bit of lowdown seems to be called for. I know it’s only Thursday, but I like my weekends loooong.

    That said, I totally agree with everyone and everytthing mentioned in the prior posts….thus hopefully offending no one. I hate contention. Brings out the worst of that nasty bastard residing in me.

    Here’s my take – in no particular order. Koskinen, if he works out, is a prelude to something else going on under the bridge, of which we’re currently unaware. The worst that can happen?

    2.5 mil to the backup keeps Talbot on his toes and in the moment for the first 2 to 5 minutes of every home game next season. Or hopefully, a doze in or so.

    Lucic. Even if he rebounds to something approaching historical standards – There’s no way in fuckin hell he can play the Vegas game. That’s out. Totally out. No more standing around the half wall waiting for an outlet pass. He’s on the move, or he’s on the bench. Or upstairs and out.

    Strome is out. Period. Aberg in. Period. But that’s just me. Coaching.

    If Kassian can play with the Sedins…he can play up the ladder on occasion. I’d give him the odd shot. For confidence reasons.

    What did the Dementor feature for in the room awards? Army jackets? I’d be be proud to wear a Princess Pats jacket. But those things are undeserved for anyone not serving a tour or two in a hot zone. Period.

    In my locker room, there’s a chain mail chastity belt hanging on the wall for the clown or clowns who show up hungover for the home game stands next season. So there. I’m assuming they chaif a bit between games.

    The winners get a set of darts and a big ass pic of mustache Pete. Courtesy of Pete. There’s nothing like self deprecation to get the crew onside.

  66. Wilde says:

    –hudson–,

    Looks like Dobberprospects has footspeed as a concern?

    Would have to get him a coach for that, but he might make a good pick in the later rounds for late reinforcements after 1-2 more years in Europe.

    Skating being a concern is redflag-territory for a 5’9″ guy, but Brayden Point wasn’t Brayden Point until Barb Underhill.

    And the same was also said about DeBrincat, and honestly I have no idea where that criticism even came from in the first place in his case.

    This is the type of stuff that gets me pissed off about the Montoya thing.

    Why do we not have our 4th rounder? WHY?!

  67. Pink Socks says:

    Brantford Boy: Do you prefer wooden or fiberglass handles?

    Fiberglass please, I hate the splinters when the pitchforks go into action.

  68. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: .Hard to defend at this point for sure

    Exactly, don’t throw your back out or anything like that ;]

  69. Melvis says:

    Pink Socks: Fiberglass please, I hate the splinters when the pitchforks go into action.

    My girlfriend prefers something soft, flexible and buzzy.

  70. Pink Socks says:

    Wilde:
    –hudson–,

    Looks like Dobberprospects has footspeed as a concern?

    Would have to get him a coach for that, but he might make a good pick in the later rounds for late reinforcements after 1-2 more years in Europe.

    Skating being a concern is redflag-territory for a 5’9″ guy, but Brayden Point wasn’t Brayden Point until Barb Underhill.

    And the same was also said about DeBrincat, and honestly I have no idea where that criticism even came from in the first place in his case.

    This is the type of stuff that gets me pissed off about the Montoya thing.

    Why do we not have our 4th rounder? WHY?!

    Especially when at the point of the season when Talbot was hurt and Brossoit was Brossoiting and still starting every game, the guy who’s numbers exceeded Brossoit and was having himself a decent year in the AHL didn’t even see a single game. Atrocious roster management. Give Ellis a start or two in the NHL and the worst that can happen is he shits the bed and goes back to the AHL. Better than just warming the bench for 2 (!) weeks while watching Laurent struggle.

  71. Pink Socks says:

    Melvis: My girlfriend prefers something soft, flexible and buzzy.

    Soft, flexible and buzzy?

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41hmu8lDH-L._SL500_AC_SS350_.jpg

  72. geowal says:

    VOR,

    Thanks!

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock: Montreal needs a center but I don’t know if they pick Kotkaniemi at 3.Wonder if they’d trade down?

    #10 to MTL for Andrew Shaw… book it.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo: Marc Bergevin job security is on shaky ground, it would be a huge risk picking Kotkaniemi at #3. He won’t be in the NHL next year. I think they will go with the safe pick Zadina or Tkachuk.

    If Oilers pick a forward Kotkaniemi would be my first pick and Barrett Hayton would be my second.

    Why do you hate Farabee and Veleno?

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    CopaFrank:
    I was okish with most of Chiarelli’s moves or at least allowed myself to see both sides, but when i saw yesterday that Colorado signed Francouz for $690K that was the last straw.His numbers were better than Koskinen, how does he rationalize paying him $2.5 million?

    We went over this yesterday – Koskinen is a much bigger player, therefore he’s worth more.

    /sarcasm

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster: Håkan Andersson was interviewed in swedish media during the U18s and seemed to actively try and tone down his interest in Boqvist. If my reading between the lines skills are anything to write home about I’d say they are pretty damn high on him.

    SwedishPoster: Håkan Andersson

    Yeah, Detroit loves their Swedish backs.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: I’m not sure Russell will become more tradeable. His NMC contines to the end of his contract. He has an added modified no trade clause that kicks in next summer but the NMC remains. I’m not sure many GMs will want to protect him for expansion rather than one their other top 3 D. And Russell might be able to ‘game’ his trade list with teams that have 3 good D that need to be protected.

    As I understand it, the NMC only travels with the player if both the player and the receiving GM agree. So the modified NTC is still basically a full NMC if the receiving GM doesn’t want the NMC and Russell does, as Russell has to agree to waive. He’s still more tradeable next summer than he is now though – just not as tradeable as Sekera.

  78. Melvis says:

    Pink Socks,

    And here I’d thought I might have to cough up, “Accept no substitutes.”

  79. Rafa Nadal says:

    dustrock:
    Just reposting this from HFBoards user Digger12:

    Not sure if anyone cares or not, but here’s a rough synopsis of the interview Stauffer did with Bob Green yesterday during Oilers Now.

    -Thinks a good player will be availabe at 10, but doesn’t think it’s a particular deep draft overall.
    -Will be doing their team meetings starting next week to iron out their final draft list.
    -Green agreed with Stauffer that after the first 4 names in the draft (Dahlin/Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk), there could be a lot of variance from team to team on what names they have ranked between 5-10.

    -Stauffer brought up forwards Walstrom and Kotkaniemi given their work in the U18 tourney, Green agreed that they could be expected to go in the top 12 in the draft.

    -Dmen Hughes/Bouchard/Dobson/Boqvist were brought up, Green said any of them would be a great pick if one was available at 10, and that they all impact the game in slightly different ways.

    -Considers the handedness of a dman more of a ‘tiebreaker’ when comparing dmen of equal ability, doesn’t buy that you should take a RD if it means taking a lesser player.

    -Regarding Ty Smith, said his offensive numbers were outstanding and that he’s a left hand shooting dman who’s more comfortable playing the right side. Liked his elusiveness, said he’s hard to hit. Stauffer brought up the Kris Russell comparison (smallish dman who put up big numbers in the WHL), Green replied that Russell absorbed a lot of physical punishment in junior which is something Smith has evaded.

    -Green confirmed that they do make use of analytics when making draft day decisions, said it was a valuable tool.

    -Stauffer brought up Joe Veleno’s U18 and thought his hockey sense was a bit lacking, Green replied that 17 year olds can look like that because they’re used to doing everything off the rush…said it’s something that’ll likely improve with experience.

    Lots of good info in this post, thanks! Bob bringing up the Russell comparison in regards to Smith worries me about this player. Admittedly, I’m not a fan at all of the NHL version of Kris Russell due to his poor defensive abilities and bleeding shots against. If Ty Smith’s offence doesn’t translate at the NHL level, I’m curious as to how effective he’d actually be.

  80. Wilde says:

    I noticed something when I was looking at the Twitter thread of Rob Vollman’s release of his new NHLE factors: Someone asked about a USHL conversion, which of course there isn’t one seeing as all of the USHL guys go to College or the AHL or even another Jr. league and not straight to the NHL, but also in his reply he included that the average % of their USHL production that a USHL forward /eventually/ reaches in the NHL is about 45.5.

    I fucking suck at writing.

    The average portion of pts/gm in the USHL that a forward reaches in the NHL, eventually, is 45.5%.

    Joel Farabee’s got 40 points in 26 games for 1.54 pts/gm.

    Run through the 45% that’s 0.701 pts/gm, or over 82 games ~57 points.

    Not bad for a two-way, penalty killing winger.

    Let’s also consider that Farabee is an elite producer and not an ‘average’ one, so he may well translate more than 45.5% of his points.

    How elite? Via the invaluable prospect-stats.com, his estimated primary points per 60 is 4.01.

    That’s a lot.

    For reference, here’s the rates of the other NA forwards in the draft ranking area of Joel: Barrett Hayton, Joe Veleno and Akil Thomas.

    This will be far from an exact science because these leagues are harder to score in than the USHL, and again we’re using /estimated/ TOI.

    player – G/60 – A1/60 / / PP/60

    Veleno – 0.90 – 0.97 / / 1.87

    Hayton – 0.89 – 1.04 / / 1.93

    Thomas – 0.96 – 0.90 / / 1.86

    Farabee – 1.39 – 2.62(!) / / 4.01

    Yeah.

    Did I mention Farabee plays on a superline?

    He does.

    So for fun, let’s put him up against his linemate, Mr. Wahlstrom:

    Wahlstrom – 2.41(!) – 0.99 / / 3.40

    Very, very impressive stuff here.

    He’s being zoomed, yes.

    So was Matthew Tkachuk.

    Seems like he’d make a good fit on a team with a couple elite centres.

  81. --hudson-- says:

    Wilde:
    –hudson–,

    Looks like Dobberprospects has footspeed as a concern?

    Would have to get him a coach for that, but he might make a good pick in the later rounds for late reinforcements after 1-2 more years in Europe.

    Skating being a concern is redflag-territory for a 5’9″ guy, but Brayden Point wasn’t Brayden Point until Barb Underhill.

    And the same was also said about DeBrincat, and honestly I have no idea where that criticism even came from in the first place in his case.

    This is the type of stuff that gets me pissed off about the Montoya thing.

    Why do we not have our 4th rounder? WHY?!

    Thanks for this! Never been to that site before.
    https://dobberprospects.com/niklas-nordgren/

    Interesting the last 4 years in the under-18s, a Finnish player has been the top goal scorer. Last season was Vesalainen, year prior was Tolvanen (tied with Yamamoto & Joey Anderson), and year prior to that was Laine (tied with Matthews). The Finns seem to be developing offence on a regular basis.

    Will be interesting to see where Nordgren goes and like you mentioned, can he improve his skating.

  82. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    Just reposting this from HFBoards user Digger12:

    -Regarding Ty Smith, said his offensive numbers were outstanding and that he’s a left hand shooting dman who’s more comfortable playing the right side.

    Well, that’s interesting. I know when I played (LD), my partner liked to switch sides on a rush or for any OZ faceoff. Sometimes we played that way for large portions of the game, once I was used to it I found I could create more offense on the off-side; you just need to be able pass backhand as well as you can with forehand, something neither of us had an issue with.

  83. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: Why do you hate Farabee and Veleno?

    Throwback Thursday. ………..

    Jason Bosignore
    58 gms 22 G 64 A 86 PTS

    Joe Veleno
    64 gms 22 G 57 A 79 PTS

  84. Woogie63 says:

    Capfriendly

    Edmonton
    Talbot $4.16M
    Koskinen $2.5M
    Montoya $1.0

    Winnipeg
    Mason $4.1M
    Hellebuyck $2.25
    Hutchinson $1.150

    Chevy is a genius, patient GM
    PC is killing the team

  85. Melvis says:

    I see 58 gms of this and 64 gms of that – and already I’m dreaming of hitting the corner pot store before puck drop in October. lol

  86. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: As I understand it, the NMC only travels with the player if both the player and the receiving GM agree. So the modified NTC is still basically a full NMC if the receiving GM doesn’t want the NMC and Russell does, as Russell has to agree to waive. He’s still more tradeable next summer than he is now though – just not as tradeable as Sekera.

    If they’re trading him before next summer that might apply. B if he agrees to not bring the NMC with him. But in waiving, I believe his agent has the option of writing an addendum to the contract that retains his NMC.

    But if he won’t waive now for a trade and they don’t buy him out his NMC continues until the end of his contract. He won’t have to waive next summer so the Clauses will definitely travel with him, including his NMC.

  87. dustrock says:

    Rafa Nadal: Lots of good info in this post, thanks! Bob bringing up the Russell comparison in regards to Smith worries me about this player. Admittedly, I’m not a fan at all of the NHL version of Kris Russell due to his poor defensive abilities and bleeding shots against. If Ty Smith’s offence doesn’t translate at the NHL level, I’m curious as to how effective he’d actually be.

    I posted a shit ton of Smith stats the other day. He shows EXTREMELY well.

    LT is right to be high on him. I can go back and repost it, but the short snapper is:

    – highest 5v5 points in draft year in the last 16 years in the WHL, over guys like Reilly, Provorov, etc. Seth Jones was 2nd behind him.

    Primary even strength points it’s 0.42 for Smith and 0.25 for Seth Jones.
    – Posts the best zone entry stats of the star D prospects, with Dobson behind and then Bouchard behind them.

    -99th percentile for scoring chances/60

    – 98th percentile for controlled entires in
    – 97th percentile for controlled entries against

    I should note Bouchard is in the 4th percentile for controlled entries against.

    This is my worry with Bouchard, if he can’t stop entries in the NZ/DZ in junior, is he going to get burned in the bigs?

  88. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Peter King is leaving SI for NBC, after 29 years

    – MMQB was a wonderful weekly piece. In some ways it had a connection like LT does to his readers. There was a folksy side to it, he talked about his family and travels as well as football.

    – Of course a larger reach and Peter King became a huge insider over time: it was really well written stuff, a must read, about the only thing online than Lowetide that I went out of my way to read

  89. Truth says:

    Would Ottawa accept Puljujarvi and the Oilers 40th overall pick for Hoffman and their 22nd overall pick? If Merkley was available at that spot I’d love to see the Oilers do something like that.

    I’d then try to move Russell (or in a perfect world Lucic) by moving Strome in the same deal to create some cap space. The Oilers could then target a someone like Derek Ryan as their 3rd C and go for Mike Green on D.

    Am I out to lunch?

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – All of Sek, Lucic Russel and Talbot are bona-fide NHL’ers. All but Russel dissappointed last year

    Russell’s On ice GF% 44.7% – 6/8 on team
    Russell’s On ice Relative Team mate GF% -4.95% 6/8 on team

    Just curious what your bar for “Russell disappointed me” is.

  91. ArmchairGM says:

    Woogie63:
    Capfriendly

    Edmonton
    Talbot $4.16M
    Koskinen $2.5M
    Montoya $1.0

    Winnipeg
    Mason $4.1M
    Hellebuyck $2.25
    Hutchinson $1.150

    Chevy is a genius, patient GM
    PC is killing the team

    Laine is still ELC next year, Scheifele gets paid half of what McDavid does. There’s a big difference.

  92. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Yeah that’d be one of the more strange attempted equivalencies I’ve seen.

    Should probably be illegal, but I don’t make society’s rules.

  93. Alpine says:

    jtblack: Throwback Thursday. ………..

    Jason Bosignore
    58 gms22 G 64 A 86 PTS

    Joe Veleno
    64 gms22 G 57 A 79 PTS

    Always weird when people pull up the same player from two decades ago to compare with current day prospects. I’ve seen Bonsignore brought up as a reason to not draft Seguin or Draisaitl in recent years. Pretty odd.

  94. RonnieB says:

    Pink Socks,

    I suspect Montreal won’t be making the pick. I foresee #3 plus something ( Patches ? Galchenyuk ? ) for Ryan O’Reilly who wants out of Buffalo.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    Woogie63:
    Capfriendly

    Edmonton
    Talbot $4.16M
    Koskinen $2.5M
    Montoya $1.0

    Winnipeg
    Mason $4.1M
    Hellebuyck $2.25
    Hutchinson $1.150

    Chevy is a genius, patient GM
    PC is killing the team

    Or 5-6 mil for Hellebyuck
    4.1 mil for Mason

    Not so geniousy now is it

  96. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Woogie63:
    Capfriendly

    Edmonton
    Talbot $4.16M
    Koskinen $2.5M
    Montoya $1.0

    Winnipeg
    Mason $4.1M
    Hellebuyck $2.25
    Hutchinson $1.150

    Chevy is a genius, patient GM
    PC is killing the team

    Why Chevy is a Genius GM:

    • Chevy built his team in the image of long term success through draft and development
    • doesn’t waste any assets at all, and has been getting full value on trades
    • signed his #1 river-pushing top ten scoring Centre to a ridiculously cap-friendly contract for 7 years
    • as of right now, does not have any truly bad contracts hindering his team.

    We will see how he deals with Laine and Trouba contracts.

    Why Chia is killing this Oilers team:

    • Has wasted assets left, right, and centre from the get go. Getting fleeced in practically every trade
    • Created a massive hole in the prospect and development sector, forcing him to sign oodles of college and veteran AHL players to fill the gaps. Most of which, have no real shot at the NHL.
    • signed too many overpriced contracts with NMC to the wrong players, forcing him to trade players when he shouldn’t be (because his asset management and trade negotiating are horrendous)
    • has put this team in cap Hell with no way out unless he trades away more assets for pennies

    Him signing Koskinen to $2.5M when Colorado signed a better goalie (for 3 straight years) to $700k

    I’m not confident in him signing Nurse to a cap-friendlyish contract. And now I’m even less confident both Nuge and Klefbom will still Oilers come September…

    /End Rant

  97. jtblack says:

    Alpine: Always weird when people pull up the same player from two decades ago to compare with current day prospects. I’ve seen Bonsignore brought up as a reason to not draft Seguin or Draisaitl in recent years. Pretty odd.

    Sure you did.

    Bosignore. 22G 64A 86P
    Seguin 48G 58A 106P
    Drai 38G 67A 105P

  98. Woogie63 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Why Chevy is a Genius GM:

    • Chevy built his team in the image of long term success through draft and development
    • doesn’t waste any assets at all, and has been getting full value on trades
    • signed his #1 river-pushing top ten scoring Centre to a ridiculously cap-friendly contract for 7 years
    • as of right now, does not have any truly bad contracts hindering his team.

    We will see how he deals with Laine and Trouba contracts.

    Why Chia is killing this Oilers team:

    • Has wasted assets left, right, and centre from the get go. Getting fleeced in practically every trade
    • Created a massive hole in the prospect and development sector, forcing him to sign oodles of college and veteran AHL players to fill the gaps. Most of which, have no real shot at the NHL.
    • signed too many overpriced contracts with NMC to the wrong players, forcing him to trade players when he shouldn’t be (because his asset management and trade negotiating are horrendous)
    • has put this team in cap Hell with no way out unless he trades away more assets for pennies

    Him signing Koskinen to $2.5M when Colorado signed a better goalie (for 3 straight years) to $700k

    I’m not confident in him signing Nurse to a cap-friendlyish contract. And now I’m even less confident both Nuge and Klefbom will still Oilers come September…

    /End Rant

    Hmmmm

    Winnipeg has 7 NTC/NMC
    Edmonton has 4 NTC/NMC

    Winnipeg had 6 ELC All had great years
    Edmonton had 6 ELC 2 had great years

  99. Woogie63 says:

    ArmchairGM: Laine is still ELC next year, Scheifele gets paid half of what McDavid does. There’s a big difference.

    My point is the money spent on the keepers is basically the same. They were expecting Mason to have the year Helleybuck had.

    $2.5 on a “back-up” screams “if you have to ask the question” about Talbot in a much more mature manner.

    If Talbot or Brossoit put the question out the management mind down the stretch the Oilers don’t have to go spend $2.5M on another goalie. But current three have too many questions.

  100. Ribs says:

    Woogie63: They were expecting Mason to have the year Helleybuck had.

    Genius! 😉

  101. SwedishPoster says:

    So I thought I’d Close the book on the Swedish draftees I didn’t have time for in my last post, it wil be more brief this time as some of these guys are players I’ve researched a little less.

    Marcus Westfält C/W(LHS)
    Tall, 6’3, and lanky forward who mostly plays center in juniors but has been used as a winger in the SHL and often with the NT. Looks real skinny on the ice so I was surprised to see he was over 200 lbs, might very well end up playing at 220+ when fully grown,, I think he could be one of those kids who just packs muscle but stays lean. I was impressed when I saw him in the SHL about midseason, ok straight line but not the smoothest skater, nice hands and can both shoot and set up teammates but most of all a really smart player, impressive decision making for a kid his age. Earlier in the season he played D for his SHL team in the Champions HL and handled it surprisingly well, especially considering he was a 17 year old forward playing out of position. I thought he was just ok at the U18s and what little I’ve seen of him in the U20s it felt like he maybe played down to his teammates level, his production has been solid in juniors though. I think he’s a sure bet to be an NHLer, how good of an NHLer will depend on how much he can improve his skating

    Dominik Bokk, W(RHS)
    The most talented german since Leon, probably the second best german prospect of all time after Leon tbh. Came over from the german junior system to Sweden for this season and the idea was to play him in the U20 team, maybe even give him time with the U18 if the step up in competition was tough. He instead came in and ripped up the U20, got inte 15 SHL games and didn’t look out of place at all, if he hadn’t been part of the SHL champions Växjö’s org he would probably have. gotten a bigger role in the SHL but the men’s team was pretty stacked with SHL standards (they beat Filip Berglund’s Skellefteå team 4-0 in the final series with a total score of 20-1, they absolutely demolished them and they were dominant the whole year).
    Anyways he’s a skill player, great skater, really quick release, filthy hands, playmaking ability. Needs to work on defense, positioning, consistency, knowing when to make the easy and when to make the difficult play. When looking for a comparable it gets pretty obvious how easily bias clouds our mind because I come up with a mix between David Pastrnak and Kevin Fiala, both who just happen to have been guys who came from other countries to play Swedish juniors. But he’s got the slipperiness and quick feet of Fiala and the wrister and goalscorer’s touch of Pastrnak. Not saying he’ll absolutely end up at the level of either of those players but that’s what I think of when I see him.
    First rounder, no doubt in my mind and what’s intriguing with him is that he came from a lower level League so there could be some untapped potential, just look at Drai’s trajectory after coming over to the CHL. The plan for Bokk was actually to go the CHL route as well, but he wanted to play in the OHL and when he got drafted to the WHL(Prince Albert Raiders, Another Leon Connection) he decided that it was better for him to continue his development in the Swedish junior system instead.

    Samuel Fagemo, W(RHS)
    This quick winger plays for Frölunda, he has a really good wrister, has scored well in the U20 League, quick first few steps but his top speed is just ok to good, Pretty skilled with the puck and has that jack in the box ability of goalscorers to just show up in the right spot. Plays with intensity but I think a guy with his skill should be making plays more consistently. He’s also really frustrating at times, not very smart with the puck, has a tendency to just skate right into opponents and lose the puck, has flashes of creativity but there’s a little too much straight lines and junior decision making that won’t fly at a higher level. He got into two SHL games this season, according to his coach he could’ve gotten a few more games but they wanted him to stay in juniors to develop his offensive game instead of getting used as a grinder in the SHL which is probably smart, if devloped right there’s enough of a skillset to make him a player but he could also end up as nothing more than an SHL journey man and bottom sixer if he can’t work out the glitches in his game. I think Fagemo is a worthwhile pick in the back half of the draft since there is a good set of skills and also enough intensity and grit to play him in different roles if he can’t play higher in the line up.

    David Gustafsson C(LHS)
    Had a strong season as an SHL regular, which in itself is a feat, especially considering he held a spot as an actual center, put up 12 pts in 45 games which is solid for a 17 year old in that league. Very defensively responsible for such a young player, good playmaking center but won’t make the spectacular play, not the most dazzling hands but really good puck control and strong on the puck not very dynamic and needs to up his skating, works really hard on the ice. Think he’s been captain for several of his junior teams.

    Oskar Bäck C(RHS)
    Center with good size,almost 6’3, ok junior production has mainly been grinding in low SHL minutes, defensively responsible, ok hands and pretty good shot, needs to work on agility, ok straight line skater. Very well liked by the U18 NT coaches.

    Lukas Wernblom, W/C(LHS)
    Small center/winger, though likely a winger at the pro level. 5’9 but tough kid who never backs down, battles hard, fast skater, works hard all over the ice, ok to good hands, shot and vision. Looks good against junior players, was pretty hyped up a few years ago but can’t piss a drop against men despite pretty ok ice time in allsvenskan, there’s a pretty good risk he’s a Sebastian Collberg, great junior player, mediocre at the pro level. His stock has crashed the last 2 years, he was seen as among the best -00 born Swedish forwards then, now there’s doubt if he’ll even get drafted. Maybe someone takes a late round flyer on him. He has some skill and a lot of heart so there’s no doubt he’ll work hard towards the NHL.

    Marcus Karlberg W(RHS)
    Tiny, 5’8, really skilled, good hands, good skating and excellent agility, quick shot and nice vision. Defense ain’t good. Started the season great but slowed down somewhat later in the year. His big obstacle is physical, needs to improve his strength and overall physique. Will stay with Leksand and will probably get a regular spot with the Allsvenskan team which is likely a great spot for his devlopment, played two games and scored one goal in allsvenskan this season. At that size he’s a longshot in the NHLer but as a late round pick up I think could end up as real good value, will certainly have a good career in the euro Leagues if he won’t cut it in the NHL.

    David Lilja C/W (LHS)
    Another smaller forward, listed 5’11(but looks shorter) and just 168 lbs. I haven’t seen much of him but caught him early in the year with his allsvenskan team and he looked pretty good, great vision, good hands, ok skater though not quite the top speed you’d like for a kid at his size. He scored pretty well in allsvenskan early but barely at all during the second half, his team was pretty terrible though so that might have been a reason. They’re a smaller club so their junior team is in a lower tier jnuior league, he played 3 games there and went 2 ppg. Iliked what I saw early in the year better than what I saw from him during the U18s where he showcased some skill but was usually fairly anonymous and inefficient. Another kid you pick up in the last couple of rounds and hope his physique catches up and let’s him use his skill better more efficiently. Will also play in Allsvenskan next season.

    Carl Wassenius C(LHS)
    Oct 99 born center who I have seen the least of all these players. Good size, 6’2, scored like crazy at the U18 level last year, put up good but maybe not brilliant numbers again this year at the U20 level and turned it on during the playoffs with 12 pts in 7 games and overall great play. Playmaker but can finish as well, what little I’ve seen he’s really good at shielding the puck, great balance but needs to improve his first steps as well as his top speed. Despite his scoring throughout the years he’s never gotten any NT call ups at any level. If you look at his stats he looks like bona fide NHL prospect, I wish I had seen him more because I’d like to know why noone really talks about him or why he hasn’t gotten at least one shot with any of the youth national teams. I’d pick him late in the draft on his scoring prowess alone tbh.

    That’s all we have time for folks. I’m surely forgetting someone but this will be it for the forwards.
    I did the D and a bunch of the top forwards earlier in the week. Just a quick mention of the goalies, I won’t try to analyze who’s got upside or go inte detail on technique and stuff because goalies, but from what I’ve gathered the guys with most hype over here atm are Samuel Ersson -99 born who’s had a strong season in juniors and will play in allsvenskan next season and Olof Lindbom who had a strong U18 Championship for Sweden. I’ve also heard good things on Jesper Myrenberg who’s looked good statistically for several seasons and Eric Portillo who’s a giant at 6’6 and a late brithday to boot. But tbh the only junior goalie with real hype currently in Swedish junior hockey is Jesper Wallstedt, 2021 eligible player who’s already a top goalie at the U20 level.

    I’ll just finish by saying that I truly hope that for next years draft the Oilers pick LHD Tobias Björnfot as his name means “Bearfoot” and the Bear-Bearfoot pairing would just be too awesome to pass up on. Can’t imagine they would be anything short of amazing at defending Ricki’s box together. Chia needs to make a deal with the rest of the League to let him drop to us at 31 in the 2019 draft…

  102. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Woogie63: Hmmmm

    Winnipeg has 7 NTC/NMC
    Edmonton has 4 NTC/NMC

    Winnipeg had 6 ELC All had great years
    Edmonton had 6 ELC 2 had great years

    Winnipeg gave their NTC/NMC to players all deserving of them, and none of those players seem to be hindering them as a team at all. (Unless someone smarter then me can point them out with the math and stuff) and has a balanced roster with good depth throughout the roster.
    I’m not a Winnipeg fan, btw… I’m actually hoping they regress next year (along with those pesky golden knights) so the oilers stay in the playoff race…

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    Capfriendly

    Edmonton
    Talbot $4.16M
    Koskinen $2.5M
    Montoya $1.0

    Winnipeg
    Mason $4.1M
    Hellebuyck $2.25
    Hutchinson $1.150

    Chevy is a genius, patient GM
    PC is killing the team

    This doesn’t change the fact that the Oilers had extremely limited cap space to improve the team for this coming season, actually next to no cap space, a total inability to improve externally without disposing of material cap – the manager then committed an extra $1.5M to the backup goaltender position with absolutely no assurance of an upgrade at the position. While Koskinen will very likely be gifted the roster spot, I wouldn’t be surprised if Montoya is every bit as good in camp (if not better).

  104. Biggus Dickus says:

    I wish I worked with the Oilers, just so I could observe what they think. I imagine the Moneyball scene with the scouts, but stupider, and there is no Billy Beane in the room.

  105. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – All of Sek, Lucic Russel and Talbot are bona-fide NHL’ers. All but Russel dissappointed last year

    Russell’s On ice GF% 44.7% – 6/8 on team
    Russell’s On ice Relative Team mate GF% -4.95% 6/8 on team

    Just curious what your bar for “Russell disappointed me” is.

    Sure for 4mm there are some better d in the league and some worse

    – RUSSEL played virtually every game this year he was I think our 2nd highest point getter he played a lot of minutes and he played up and down the roster and left and right

    – sure there are some stats that cast him in a poor light and some that are more favourable (cf fenwick toi)

    – shi?timg on RUSSEL is just code for sh(ting in chia. Which is fine.

    – as a 4 5 d that gets asked to do more than most d on this team and for 4mm you could cherry pick a bunch of d in the league that would help.

    – according to staples chances metrics he isn’t bad

    – of all the things that ail this team his bit of extra money and bit of extra term don’t matter. I’d rather RUSSEL than Lowe Simpson auvitu bear 19 minutes a night.

    – when better d emerge he is easily moved. But that’s a year away imo

    – I don’t see how you pick 3 stats and passive aggressive mock me.

    – His GA/60 5×5 is better than Klef, Sek, Benning, Auvitu, Lowe, Bear

    – He’s a better PK defender than Nurse, Larsson, Klef

    – Sure he’s not perfect, but he isn’t the problem at all, not even close with this D or this team right now.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Can Brad Malone find a role with the Edmonton Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/339708/2018/05/03/lowetide-can-brad-malone-find-a-role-in-the-nhl-with-the-edmonton-oilers/

    By Brad Malone, do you mean Cooper Marody?

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Taking away his cap hit (which can’t really be done), Russell is fine as a 3LD who can move up to 2LD in case of injuries.

    Where he is not fine is the right side in the top 4 where, unfortunately, he has spent the majority of his time as an Oiler.

    The priority this season needs to be filling the 2RD spot with an actual right shot D that can move the puck – in fact, that is the only material acquisition I want them to commit to.

  108. Jaxon says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – when better d emerge he is easily moved. But that’s a year away imo

    Therein lies the rub. He will never be “easily moved”. His NMC will make him very difficult to move as the expansion draft approaches. Next summer he adds a Modified No Trade Clause to his contract where he has to name 10 teams he can be traded to. But his No MOVE clause remains until the end of his contract. Right now, I think he’s at best #4 (Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom) or #5 (Sekera) and maybe even #6 after Benning on Edmonton’s blue. On most teams in the NHL he is a #4,5 or 6 (an expensive one at that). So, if you’re a GM with 3 good D, are you going to trade for a $4M Russell and his NMC which means you’ll have to protect him and give up one of your top 3?

  109. Jaxon says:

    I will say this about Vegas’ success. It will be easier for teams to ask players to waive their NMC so they don’t have to be protected in the expansion draft. Suddenly, going to an expansion city doesn’t seem like the death penalty it once was. Seattle will be (might be?) instantly competitive, too. They have a great model to copy and a system set up to help them succeed.

  110. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: Therein lies the rub. He will never be “easily moved”. His NMC will make him very difficult to move as the expansion draft approaches. Next summer he adds a Modified No Trade Clause to his contract where he has to name 10 teams he can be traded to. But his No MOVE clause remains until the end of his contract. Right now, I think he’s at best #4 (Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom) or #5 (Sekera) and maybe even #6 after Benning on Edmonton’s blue. On most teams in the NHL he is a #4,5 or 6 (an expensive one at that).So, if you’re a GM with 3 good D, are you going to trade for a $4M Russell and his NMC which means you’ll have to protect him and give up one of your top 3?

    If a GM needs D and values a player more than what he has it can be done. Lots still value shot blocking and heart. And Russell / Sekera are mobile so fit the current game. Sekera has considerable skill.

    They can also be traded for a lower price as they were signed UFA so had no asset cost. Not ideal for me but at least not as damaging as trading a drafted player for a bag of pucks.

  111. Woogie63 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Winnipeg gave their NTC/NMC to players all deserving of them, and none of those players seem to be hindering them as a team at all. (Unless someone smarter then me can point them out with the math and stuff) and has a balanced roster with good depth throughout the roster.
    I’m not a Winnipeg fan, btw… I’m actually hoping they regress next year (along with those pesky golden knights)so the oilers stay in the playoff race…

    What is the major difference between Winnipeg roster this year vs. Last year?

    Hellybuck at .924 SAV% vs. Tire fire in goal last year? Is probably more important than any balanced line up…

  112. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jaxon: Therein lies the rub. He will never be “easily moved”. His NMC will make him very difficult to move as the expansion draft approaches. Next summer he adds a Modified No Trade Clause to his contract where he has to name 10 teams he can be traded to. But his No MOVE clause remains until the end of his contract. Right now, I think he’s at best #4 (Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom) or #5 (Sekera) and maybe even #6 after Benning on Edmonton’s blue. On most teams in the NHL he is a #4,5 or 6 (an expensive one at that).So, if you’re a GM with 3 good D, are you going to trade for a $4M Russell and his NMC which means you’ll have to protect him and give up one of your top 3?

    – look at his contract. He is traceable next year and he only costs 1.5mm in his last year

    – people don’t like it but there was a logic to his deal. If there are 5 d better than him at the end of next year guys with his profile get moved all the time.

    – he is not blocking anyone he does things the team needs.

    – he’s not a difference maker nor a boat anchor. He’s a little expensive

    – getting rid of RUSSEL what’s the net improvement for next year? I don’t get it

  113. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – look at his contract. He is traceable next year and he only costs 1.5mm in his last year

    – people don’t like it but there was a logic to his deal. If there are 5 d better than him at the end of next year guys with his profile get moved all the time.

    – he is not blocking anyone he does things the team needs.

    – he’s not a difference maker nor a boat anchor. He’s a little expensive

    – getting rid of RUSSEL what’s the net improvement for next year?I don’t get it

    Russell is way down the list of Oiler problems. I don’t know why everyone fixates on him.
    He was easily one of our top 4 dmen last year and will be leaned on again next year. If someone passes him on the depth chart, and you want to save some money, you can trade him or Sekera next summer.
    If you can’t trade him and don’t want to protect him just buy out the last year of his contract. It won’t be that expensive.
    Biggest problems facing the Oilers are the Lucic contract and the steep drop off in proven talent up front after you get past the big three.

  114. Biggus Dickus says:

    Not loving the Eskimos draft so far. Not a big Oneyeka fan. Simonise would have been a nice add, but a guy busted for roids shouldn’t even be in the draft imo. Dubois was a freak at the combine, and would have been an interesting pick. Tietz will play, but another Canadian LB probably doesn’t help us that much.

    Petermann was a monster at the combine as well, but I’m not sure he is as good in game. I think Oneyeka would have been a good pick (the other one), or Marcus Davis is a stud but is a bandaid.

    I don’t love the new GM.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    – getting rid of RUSSEL what’s the net improvement for next year?I don’t get it

    Still having 3 legit 3LD that are better than him and opening up $4M to acquire a true 2RD.

  116. Biggus Dickus says:

    Boston Rowe would be a good pick. Also like Justin Lawrence, Atlee Simon, and Tanner Green would be a nice FB prospect.

  117. Biggus Dickus says:

    Ok. They picked one of my guys.

  118. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: This doesn’t change the fact that the Oilers had extremely limited cap space to improve the team for this coming season, actually next to no cap space, a total inability to improve externally without disposing of material cap – the manager then committed an extra $1.5M to the backup goaltender position with absolutely no assurance of an upgrade at the position.While Koskinen willvery likely be gifted the roster spot, I wouldn’t be surprised if Montoya is every bit as good in camp (if not better).

    What’s up OP? You’ve lost that optimistic attitude I so enjoyed. You’ve been very critical of a deal that is basically meh. Ya $2.5 mill is another overpayment, but it’s only for one year. Finding a backup goalie was the biggest need heading into the offseason. It was also the easiest need to fill of course. I would have preferred Reimer or Ward at $1.5 mill, but we got the big Euro instead. In the end, we overpaid by $1 mill for a goalie Chia sees as his new Tim Thomas. If Koskinen falls on his face, Chia is out of a job and we can start tearing apart his replacement. Seems like a win-win to me.

  119. Biggus Dickus says:

    Shit, Lawrence goes to Calgary one pick before Edmonton drafts. Krahn is nowhere near the same skill level.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    I still have the same optimistic attitude but that will never stop me from being critical of moves I don’t agree with and I think this was a terrible signing.

    I don’t agree that its “meh” – it would be “meh” if our cap situation wasn’t so dire but it was dire before the signing and worse now.

    Even before the signing, the team could not improve via acquisition without disposing of cap and now its even moreso and there is a reasonable chance that they didn’t even improve.

    Yes, of course, I’m hoping that Koskinen is the next coming of Kiprusoff but he is a 30 year old unrpoven netmider that will be gifted the 2G roster spot when he should be competing with Montoya for it for a cap hit of $1M or less.

    Essentially, the GM committed an extra $1.5M (that we don’t have) and potentially didn’t even improve the team.

  121. Biggus Dickus says:

    Who’s the joker at the CFL? How are there only 69 picks? That isn’t divisible by 9. Clowns.

  122. Biggus Dickus says:

    And they take a midget RB who is incredibly slow and is a bandaid. Highly decorated CIS player, but I don’t think he is a next level player. Simon would be a better guy to take a shot on since he is hidden behind Picton and the highly passed biased Regina Rams. Better athlete.

  123. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woogie63: What is the major difference between Winnipeg roster this year vs. Last year?

    Hellybuck at .924 SAV% vs. Tire fire in goal last year?Is probably more important than any balanced line up…

    This is what I find absolutely hilarious. A year ago at this time you would need a high powered nuclear microscope to find any Chevy supporters out there. He signs Mason for $4.1 and he immediately poops the bed. Helly finds his game, the Jets perform like they should and everyone with the Jets is now a genius.

  124. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965: This is what I find absolutely hilarious. A year ago at this time you would need a high powered nuclear microscope to find any Chevy supporters out there. He signs Mason for $4.1 and he immediately poops the bed. Helly finds his game, the Jets perform like they should and everyone with the Jets is now a genius.

    Precisely.

  125. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I still have the same optimistic attitude but that will never stop me from being critical of moves I don’t agree with and I think this was a terrible signing.

    I don’t agree that its “meh” – it would be “meh” if our cap situation wasn’t so dire but it was dire before the signing and worse now.

    Even before the signing, the team could not improve via acquisition without disposing of cap and now its even moreso and there is a reasonable chance that they didn’t even improve.

    Yes, of course, I’m hoping that Koskinen is the next coming of Kiprusoff but he is a 30 year old unrpoven netmider that will be gifted the 2G roster spot when he should be competing with Montoya for it for a cap hit of $1M or less.

    Essentially, the GM committed an extra $1.5M (that we don’t have) and potentially didn’t even improve the team.

    The Hall trade and the Reinhart trade had long-term debilitating affects on this team. The Koskinen signing not so much. $1 mill in extra cap space can easily be overcome. I don’t think we were getting a backup for $1 mill so I don’t believe it cost us $1.5 mill.

  126. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Chevy torpedoed his team by not finding adequate goaltending and this season got lucky.

    Shero wasted years of Crosby Malkin with unstable goalering.

    Chia has wasted a year of Connor doing same.

    The biggest need next season is at least league average goalering and normal stable systems play. The roster is adequate given those things.

    A few successful adds on that and you have a dangerous team.

  127. Biggus Dickus says:

    In garbage time now, but I don’t love taking an AUS kid. It’s below some CJFL teams in terms of quality of competition. If I were to grab an AUS player, he would have to be a physical freak.

    Sean Stenger kicks one hell of a ball. Would be a nice grab. Maybe Van Pelt. Part of the stacked Dinos DL.

  128. flyfish1168 says:

    JimmyV1965: This is what I find absolutely hilarious. A year ago at this time you would need a high powered nuclear microscope to find any Chevy supporters out there. He signs Mason for $4.1 and he immediately poops the bed. Helly finds his game, the Jets perform like they should and everyone with the Jets is now a genius.

    These guys are in the business where people only remember ” What have you done for me lately”. If you are in a Canadian market, the fans will remember every little mistake you make and will remind you daily. Canadain MSM the sports pages will have hockey as the number 1 topic and headline. Canada is a Hockey crazy country. Some players like it and some can’t handle the heat.

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: The Hall trade and the Reinhart trade had long-term debilitating affects on this team. The Koskinen signing not so much. $1 mill in extra cap space can easily be overcome. I don’t think we were getting a backup for $1 mill so I don’t believe it cost us $1.5 mill.

    I agree and would like to add that in a capped league recovery is possible if things go right.

    We’ll assume normal management. In an open market league the most money wins. In a capped league you can’t accumulate excess top talent and keep it.

    It is possible to recover with some finds like Benning, smart lower end UFA signings and good drafts in the shorter term.

    I don’t think the Oilers are hooped but by track record don’t think the decision making will magically improve. Chia says he needs to be better, maybe he will do it. He’s smart enough, is he humble enough to see his shortcomings and improve or hand those things off to someone better at them.

  130. Biggus Dickus says:

    Sorry to spam the thread, but this was my first year seriously following the CFL draft. Was pretty fun due to the lack of information in the mainstream, so I had to do all my own research. Would recommend it for people who liked the mystique of the NHL draft in decades past.

  131. Lowetide says:

    Biggus Dickus:
    Sorry to spam the thread, but this was my first year seriously following the CFL draft. Was pretty fun due to the lack of information in the mainstream, so I had to do all my own research. Would recommend it for people who liked the mystique of the NHL draft in decades past.

    Calgary killed the draft. God.

  132. Biggus Dickus says:

    Lowetide: Calgary killed the draft. God.

    Yeah, only 3 guys going to east west this year though. I think the program is starting to come back to earth with the resurgence of the UofA, which has basically cut their recruiting pool in half. Alberta actually has more players going to East West than Calgary.

    Their box last year was possibly the best I’ve seen at the CIS level. The DL was fantastic, then Rowe and Teitz right behind them. Sort of surprised Krahn went so high, but Ciraco and Sceviour are guys who should be longtime CFLers. Probably all Aholes though.

    I’m hoping to get transferred back to Edmonton this year, partly because the Bears are starting to look really good. Chris Morris is creating an OL factory, and it is an incredible climb back to respectability. I played for the Bears way back in the day, and it tore me up to see what they turned into. I’ve sponsored the team for the last while due to how influential Morris is. Awesome to see guys getting drafted, winning major awards, getting NFL interest, and scholarly achievements in addition to the minor on field success. The last time I was at Foote Field was in 2011, and it was abhorrent from the way the players and coaches acted to the facilities to the performance. It was the last game of the season, and they lost 67-3 to Saskatchewan. 5 minutes after the game, I bumped into a group of 5ish players on their phones and talking about where they were gonna be partying that night. Embarassing.

    Honestly one of the biggest turnarounds I have seen in sports. Hopefully the Oilers can do something similar. I would love to get back into coaching with that program.

  133. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: This doesn’t change the fact that the Oilers had extremely limited cap space to improve the team for this coming season, actually next to no cap space, a total inability to improve externally without disposing of material cap – the manager then committed an extra $1.5M to the backup goaltender position with absolutely no assurance of an upgrade at the position.While Koskinen willvery likely be gifted the roster spot, I wouldn’t be surprised if Montoya is every bit as good in camp (if not better).

    There is never any assurance of upgrade by pretty much any goalie–except for the very elite–when we’re only talking about one season. They’re all capable of an off year.

    He’s as good a bet as any. The K is the best league in the world after the NHL. He’s proven he can handle a starter’s role–the pressure, the physical grind, etc–and be successful in that league. That places him ahead of AHL starters and most NHL backups, IMO. If a GM is worried about what will happen if Talbot continues to go south or gets injured for any serious stretch…

    AHL starters we seem to have in spades. In fact, I’d guess that the organization has given up on LB with this signing and Mikko is insurance in case TBot’s play removes him from future plans. Or he out-performs TBot and becomes a cheaper option going forward.

    We have no idea what the Oiler scouts and goaltending coaches think of Koskinen. We have no idea if there were other teams made offers and what those were.

    Goaltending can kill a season, even with a superstar on the team. I don’t mind this move. It was the weakest position on the team this past year. Money well-spent. Does that mean a cap move is coming? Very likely, but let’s see this play out.

    Do they keep Inigo and waive him into the minors? Do they sail on LD? Is Kassian gone? (I actually doubt this one. Chia loves size and speed). Klefbom/Sekera?

    Weird fact… Rolie and Montoya played 20 each for the Isles in 2010-11 when Koskinen got into his only four NHL games. I expect we’ll be traded DiPietro’s contract at the draft.

  134. Ribs says:

    Gus Dickus: Yeah, only 3 guys going to east west this year though. I think the program is starting to come back to earth with the resurgence of the UofA, which has basically cut their recruiting pool in half. Alberta actually has more players going to East West than Calgary.

    Their box last year was possibly the best I’ve seen at the CIS level. The DL was fantastic, then Rowe and Teitz right behind them. Sort of surprised Krahn went so high, but Ciraco and Sceviour are guys who should be longtime CFLers. Probably all Aholes though.

    I’m hoping to get transferred back to Edmonton this year, partly because the Bears are starting to look really good. Chris Morris is creating an OL factory, and it is an incredible climb back to respectability. I played for the Bears way back in the day, and it tore me up to see what they turned into. I’ve sponsored the team for the last while due to how influential Morris is. Awesome to see guys getting drafted, winning major awards, getting NFL interest, and scholarly achievements in addition to the minor on field success. The last time I was at Foote Field was in 2011, and it was abhorrent from the way the players and coaches acted to the facilities to the performance. It was the last game of the season, and they lost 67-3 to Saskatchewan. 5 minutes after the game, I bumped into a group of 5ish players on their phones and talking about where they were gonna be partying that night. Embarassing.

    Honestly one of the biggest turnarounds I have seen in sports. Hopefully the Oilers can do something similar. I would love to get back into coaching with that program.

    Thanks, Gus. I have no clue who any of the players are that get drafted every year into the CFL. TSN announces trades for picks every year like they are mammoth deals, and I don’t see it. It’s nice to get a little insight into these picks from you!

    Maybe the CFL could do a better job of highlighting these guys before the draft. This is kind of a hush-hush league and there are times when I love that about the CFL, but other times I feel it’s a detriment to it’s rise in popularity/success.

  135. rickithebear says:

    All you NFL guys.
    I have used PFF when it was in blog periphery from day 1.
    It mirrored my process of performance grading realative to competition
    And
    Repeatability.

    Most football writers are out to lunch.

    Players must fit scheme and upgrade weakness.

    Detroit Lions fan.
    Worst run yards in league.

    Pick 20 Ragnow
    Top 2 Center grades in pff era. Playing in SEC
    0 sacks allowed.
    Break evens or wins vs top SEC zero & 3 techniques.

    Pick #43 k. Johnson.
    #5 ranked RB.
    Leading rusher SEC
    3 down ability
    Hold read back ( identifies correct hole)
    Elite 10 yd ( hole burst)
    Elite 20yd (2nd level burst)
    No top end ( but elite edge speed)

    #153 Crosby LT
    PFF #1 run block tackle
    0 sacks allowed
    Pac12 Ozl voted by peers.

    #237 Bawden FB
    Lead blocker for FBS leading rusher 2 years in a row.
    Low miss block rate

    BASE REPEATABLE PERFORMANCE!

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: The Hall trade and the Reinhart trade had long-term debilitating affects on this team. The Koskinen signing not so much. $1 mill in extra cap space can easily be overcome. I don’t think we were getting a backup for $1 mill so I don’t believe it cost us $1.5 mill.

    I’m not comparing it to the other trades but, in itself, its a bad contract. No, it won’t have long-term debilitating effects directly but there is a chance it could indirectly as it further reduces our cap space and solidifies the requirement to send cap out in any additional transaction – this could potentially lead to a transaction where a Klefbom is shipped out to open up cap space.

    We had a back-up goalie for $1M. Now we have another back-up goalie for $2.5M and we aren’t even assured that we’ve made an improvement.

    I was one that didn’t think this team could afford to pay more than $1.5M for a back-up goalie but, if management was going to commit to such a cost, I would have thought they’d go with an established NHL goalie, not a magic bean.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: There is never any assurance of upgrade by pretty much any goalie–except for the very elite–when we’re only talking about one season.They’re all capable of an off year.

    He’s as good a bet as any.The K is the best league in the world after the NHL.He’s proven he can handle a starter’s role–the pressure, the physical grind, etc–and be successful in that league.That places him ahead of AHL starters and most NHL backups, IMO.If a GM isworried about what will happen if Talbot continues to go south or gets injured for any serious stretch…

    AHL starters we seem to have in spades. In fact, I’d guess that the organization has given up on LB with this signing and Mikko is insurance in case TBot’s play removes him from future plans.Or he out-performs TBot and becomes a cheaper option going forward.

    We have no idea what the Oiler scouts and goaltending coaches think of Koskinen. We have no idea if there were other teams made offers and what those were.

    Goaltending can kill a season, even with a superstar on the team.I don’t mind this move.It was the weakest position on the team this past year.Money well-spent.Does that mean a cap move is coming? Very likely, but let’s see this play out.

    Do they keep Inigo and waive him into the minors?Do they sail on LD?Is Kassian gone? (I actually doubt this one. Chia loves size and speed).Klefbom/Sekera?

    Weird fact… Rolie and Montoya played 20 each for the Isles in 2010-11 when Koskinen got into his only four NHL games.I expect we’ll be traded DiPietro’s contract at the draft.

    Of course there is no assurance, there never really is, however there are bets that are more solid than others and a bet on a 30 year goalie that has never been an NHL player (4 games a decade ago notwithstanding) is a risky bet as compared to those with established track records in the NHL (i.e. Halak).

    $2.5M is an egregious amount to spend given the cap structure of the team and the lack of cap space – for a goalie with no NHL track record? Sure, that’s what it took to get it done I guess. The other option is to walk away but Chia has proven he doesn’t do that when he has a target. It was May 2 fro crying out loud – there are numerous back-up goalie options with NHL track records – many of which would not have cost $2.5M. That cap hit has no fit in the realm of reasonableness.

  138. who says:

    JimmyV1965: This is what I find absolutely hilarious. A year ago at this time you would need a high powered nuclear microscope to find any Chevy supporters out there. He signs Mason for $4.1 and he immediately poops the bed. Helly finds his game, the Jets perform like they should and everyone with the Jets is now a genius.

    I dunno.
    I’ve liked Winnipegs team for a few years now. I have friends who felt the same way. Could never figure out why they didn’t have a better record. Turns out all they needed was a goalie. And for more of their young talent to mature.
    Should be a lesson in here for Oiler fans and managements. Stockpile young talent (keep your draft picks), exercise some patience, and get a goalie.
    I don’t mind the bet on Koskinen. It’s a gamble. But so is expecting an NHL backup to carry a team. And that’s the position we are in with Talbot. He might be real good next year, or he might be just like last year. The fact is that in 2 of his 3 years here he’s needed another guy to carry the mail for a while. Nilsson did that early in his first year. No one stepped up last year.
    So we signed Koskinen. He’s either a solution or a short term problem.

  139. ArmchairGM says:

    Woogie63: My point is the money spent on the keepers is basically the same.They were expecting Mason to have the year Helleybuck had.

    $2.5 on a “back-up” screams “if you have to ask the question” about Talbot in a much more mature manner.

    If Talbot or Brossoit put the question out the management mind down the stretch the Oilers don’t have to go spend $2.5M on another goalie.But current three have too many questions.

    I don’t mind Chairelli spending $2.5M on a 1B, but I want something more than a wing and a prayer for my money, thanks.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am one that didn’t want to spend more cap on a back-up goalie – sure, I would have liked a substantial back-up/1B type goalie, however, our cap structure, our very limited cap space with the need to improve in a couple areas, led me to think that we didn’t have the luxury to improve at the back-up goalie position.

    I agree with the above post, if management was going to commit $2.5M to this position, an extra $1.5M, I would have thought the player bet on would be a more established NHL goalie. If the bet was going to be so high risk like this one is (we have no idea if this guy is capable of being an NHL back-up), the cost should have been nominal – see Pavel Francour.

    Also, there is risk here. We know that Chia is going to be looking to improve materially in certain other areas and, with this signing, he has further decreased any cap space to so in to the negative. This seemingly minor overpay could lead to the disposition of a material/substantial/core player in order to open up cap room for his “big acquisition”.

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not comparing it to the other trades but, in itself, its a bad contract. No, it won’t have long-term debilitating effects directly but there is a chance it could indirectly as it further reduces our cap space and solidifies the requirement to send cap out in any additional transaction – this could potentially lead to a transaction where a Klefbom is shipped out to open up cap space.

    We had a back-up goalie for $1M.Now we have another back-up goalie for $2.5M and we aren’t even assured that we’ve made an improvement.

    I was one that didn’t think this team could afford to pay more than $1.5M for a back-up goalie but, if management was going to commit to such a cost, I would have thought they’d go with an established NHL goalie, not a magic bean.

    Well said – it’s the domino effect of the contract that worries me.

  142. flyfish1168 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I agree and would like to add that in a capped league recovery is possible if things go right.

    We’ll assume normal management. In an open market league the most money wins. In a capped league you can’t accumulate excess top talent and keep it.

    It is possible to recover with some finds like Benning, smart lower end UFA signings and good drafts in the shorter term.

    I don’t think the Oilers are hooped but by track record don’t think the decision making will magically improve. Chia says he needs to be better, maybe he will do it. He’s smart enough, is he humble enough to see his shortcomings and improve or hand those things off to someone better at them.

    I can’t agree with you about PC being smart or humble enough. He was in same situation back in his bruin days. This is his 2nd CAP go around and he looks to have phucked it up again. Never learned a thing from his 1st experience. JMHO but that is called stupid. If he is fired he probably won’t get another chance at a GM position after making same mistake twice.

  143. Bank Shot says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Winnipeg gave their NTC/NMC to players all deserving of them, and none of those players seem to be hindering them as a team at all. (Unless someone smarter then me can point them out with the math and stuff) and has a balanced roster with good depth throughout the roster.
    I’m not a Winnipeg fan, btw… I’m actually hoping they regress next year (along with those pesky golden knights)so the oilers stay in the playoff race…

    I’ll be shocked if Byfuglien isn’t a boat anchor by the end of his contract.

  144. Wilde says:

    Looking at past USHL draft crops, Cooper Marody shows very well in his draft season amongst other U18 talents like Kyle Connor and Brock Boeser.

    Like that trade a lot.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Looking at past USHL draft crops, Cooper Marody shows very well in his draft season amongst other U18 talents like Kyle Connor and Brock Boeser.

    Like that trade a lot.

    Yes, it was an un-hearadled move at the time but it looks good now. I watched 3 Michigan games after the trade and was very impressed with Cooper. He has nice skill (better than I thought he’d have) and is a smart player that can play in all situations (PK, defending a lead, down a goal, etc.).

    We don’t know how that will translate to pro hockey and if it ever translates to the NHL but he showed very well in his few games for the Condors down the stretch. Got on the scoresheet and, from accounts, was the best player on the ice in a couple of the games.

    We’ll see what happens at camp but he has an outside shot at competing for a 4C spot if an outside acquisition is not made.

  146. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I have the same takeaways from the Michigan games, where I was more watching for Quinn Hughes but Marody and his line(which he drove, imo) showed very well.

    I have no idea how he went in the 6th round, honestly. Teams like Winnipeg who like the American kids are laughing, here’s their USHL haul from 2015 alone:

    #17 – Kyle Connor
    #25 – Jack Roslovic
    #78 – Erik Foley
    #168 – Mason Appleton

    Connor scored 31 goals this year, Roslovic would have played 82 gams on the Oilers, Foley is Providence College’s leading scorer, Appleton is a 61 pts in 71 games in the AHL 6’2″ RHD on a stacked Moose team that’s gunning for the championship.

  147. Wilde says:

    Also a note on the talk about how you can’t stockpile talent and keep it in the cap era.

    Yes you can, here’s how:

    Keep your draft picks.

    The more talented depth you have, the more you can push talented players down the depth chart, and give their agent less to bargain with in raw point totals.

    Examples from Vegas all over… William Karlsson plays the third line In Columbus again this year, scores 20 goals, how much does he get in his next contract?

  148. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course there is no assurance, there never really is, however there are bets that are more solid than others and a bet on a 30 year goalie that has never been an NHL player (4 games a decade ago notwithstanding) is a risky bet as compared to those with established track records in the NHL (i.e. Halak).

    $2.5M is an egregious amount to spend given the cap structure of the team and the lack of cap space – for a goalie with no NHL track record?Sure, that’s what it took to get it done I guess. The other option is to walk away but Chia has proven he doesn’t do that when he has a target. It was May 2 fro crying out loud – there are numerous back-up goalie options with NHL track records – many of which would not have cost $2.5M. That cap hit has no fit in the realm of reasonableness.

    We obviously are assessing the risk differently. And egregious is far too strong a word in any case.

    IMO, a proven starter from the best league not the NHL in the world, is less risk than an AHL starter, NHL backup or an NHL goalie who has difficulty in the starter hole. Your mileage obviously varies.

    Also you’re making judgments with partial information. Your assumptions may prove correct, but right now we have no info on other teams interested, scouting reports etc.

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