Denmark Street

One of the things I do around this time of year is project individual NHL GP for the following season. It shows areas of strength and weakness and allows you to project things into the future based on the organization’s own established past. It also informs us about the organization’s thinking in regard to non-NHL players and what the plans are for the fall. Here, let me show you.

THE ATHLETIC!

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OILERS NHLE 17-18

These are my projections from last August for the Oilers, missed it by an absolute mile. I projected 257 goals (Actual: 229, -28) and 208 goals against (Actual: 262, -holy crap) in a year where offense rose 17 goals a team. In fairness to me, what in the actual hell. Some of my estimates (McDavid) are very close, others (Cam Talbot) are not. I estimated +49 in goal differential, Edmonton was in fact -33 in goal differential. On the positive side? Pretty sure this team will regress. On the negative side? Every other bloody thing.

The first part of the exercise for me is games played. In the RE box above, the biggest challenge was figuring out games played for non established NHL players. For McDavid, Lucic, Maroon, Nuge, Leon, it’s a matter of evaluating their own past and projecting it forward. If healthy, they’re playing 82 games.

So when Jesse Puljujarvi plays 65 NHL games (exactly my projection) I’m feeling good about that estimate. I had Drake Caggiula at 70, he played 67. On the other hand, I missed on Slepyshev (projected 70, he played 50) and Jujhar Khaira (projected 45, he played 69). Projecting roles for players who aren’t established is a really tricky item. You know what? It also tells us how many positions are likely to be devoted to players who are not NHL regulars. It tells us where the gaps are and that has value, especially at this time of year. If you know the gaps, you should be able to predict the summer. Should be able to predict the summer.

EDMONTON OILERS 2018-19 GP PROJECTION

The first step in my RE is to estimate games played for veterans/rookies who are locks for employment. It’s important to do it now because you can see areas of weakness (and strength). For this year’s Oilers team, balance is a distant bell. One final thing: GP incorporates projected role by specific players and their ability to stay in the lineup. Here we go.

  • Goal: Cam Talbot (55); Al Montoya (5). I suspect this is what Peter Chiarelli sees for the goalie group, Montoya might be lost on waivers or maybe he grabs the backup job. Talbot has played 56, 73 and 67 games in his three Oilers seasons. The leftover games (22) will be filled by an outside source (more in a moment).
  • Left Defense: Darnell Nurse (68); Oscar Klefbom (62); Andrej Sekera (58).  Although we associate all of Nurse, Klefbom and Sekera as everyday players, each man has missed significant time in at least one of the last three seasons. One of the things this exercise does is reinforce the idea that six defensemen isn’t enough. The Oilers top three LH defensemen project to miss 58 games next year based on their own past. That’s a lot.
  • Right Defense: Adam Larsson (75); Kris Russell (70); Matt Benning (68). The right side should be a bit more stable. There are 33 games available on this side, and Edmonton has a youngster (Ethan Bear) pushing. Of course, he won’t be the 7D, so that’s an area of need for the organization.
  • Center: Connor McDavid (75); Leon Draisaitl (78); Ryan Strome (74); Jujhar Khaira (69). This is a fabulous depth chart at center, can’t wait to see the top two lines rolling. Strome has some nice underlying numbers, Khaira took a step forward. There’s very little left over if Khaira plays center (as we’ll see in a minute).
  • Left Wing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (66); Milan Lucic (81); Drake Caggiula (63); Pontus Aberg (69). There’s not a checker in the bunch and this lineup includes two guys who are still trying to find their way as NHL players, but the position boasts four potential regulars. This hockey club badly needs a two-way left winger.
  • Right Wing: Jesse Puljujarvi (82); Ty Rattie (54); Zack Kassian (68). As is the case on left wing, no checkers and we have our first position on the roster where the Oilers have to make an addition. There’s simply no way for the team to begin the 2018-19 season without an addition or two.

PROJECTIONS OF NON-ESTABLISHED PLAYERS

  • Goal: Mikko Koskinen (22). Peter Chiarelli talked about goaltending as a major issue and wasted no time in addressing it. He used about 35 percent of the available cap cushion, that more than anything reflects his thinking on what went wrong a year ago.
  • Left Defense: Caleb Jones (25); Ryan Stanton (12); William Lagesson (2). There are 39 games available based on my projected GP for veterans, I’ve divided them up as you see here. This isn’t a position that can be solved with a Keegan Lowe or Dillon Simpson, and I see no reason to bring back Yohann Auvitu if there are no plans to use him on the power play.
  • Right Defense: Ethan Bear (40); Eric Gryba (12). I have Bear playing half of the season in Bakersfield, it’s important to reiterate prospects don’t develop in a straight line. Counting on him for 40 NHL games is unwise, but we are here.
  • Center: Brad Malone (22). The one position (providing Khaira is a center) where you can see the vision from beginning to end. I have no quarrel with this position although Strome’s contract number may change things.
  • Left Wing: Tyler Benson (25); Joe Gambardella (24). This is the low ebb of the projected roster, Edmonton simply has to add at this position. Moving Jujhar Khaira over would solve the issue, but I’ve used him at pivot. Benson and Gambardella should be in the AHL all season. Full stop.
  • Right Wing: Kailer Yamamoto (65); Cooper Marody (39); Cameron Hebig (20). Yamamoto makes this team unless Edmonton adds a player or two for starboard. As is the case with left wing, the depth chart is sadly lacking at this position. As a result, men like Marody and Hebig would be thrust into roles they aren’t ready for yet (and may not achieve).

MY NEEDS LIST

Based on Peter Chiarelli’s exit interview with the media, the general manager’s list is backup goalie (already addressed), a puck moving defender (hopefully RHD) and a winger or two. My list, with the understanding goaltending is no longer an issue (at this time):

  • Veteran scoring right winger. This is basically replacing Eberle, in the short term. Eventually Puljujarvi and Yamamoto will nail down the top two spots but that’s too big an ask for next season.
  • Two-way left winger. How many Oilers forwards are capable two-way players? Not enough. A 15-goal left winger who can penalty kill and mark his man would be a fabulous addition to the current group.
  • Puck mover. In my opinion this isn’t a priority but if there’s a superior offensive defenseman to Klefbom and Sekera available, no harm in an upgrade.
  • No. 7 defender. It isn’t a gigantic need and someone like Stanton could fill it, but the depth currently won’t be enough for a long, grueling season.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

No Lowdown today, the Canada-USA World Hockey Championships are on TSN1260 (tune in, outstanding pbp) this morning. I’ll join Dave Jamieson at 11:20 this morning to talk about the game. I hope you enjoyed this little exercise, ordinarily I would do this in a private post and you would never see it. Question: Would you like to see how I estimate time on ice? Power play? Let me know. If it’s too boring, I’ll keep it private.

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138 Responses to "Denmark Street"

  1. OilClog says:

    Isn’t part of Nuge’s skill set on the defensive side of the puck part of why he’s extremely impressive with Mcdavid allowing him to take alil more gamble with his rocket thrusters? Isn’t he the best 200ft player on the team? Poor Nuge

  2. Lowetide says:

    OilClog:
    Isn’t part of Nuge’s skill set on the defensive side of the puck part of why he’s extremely impressive with Mcdavid allowing him to take alil more gamble with his rocket thrusters? Isn’t he the best 200ft player on the team? Poor Nuge

    He sure is, one of the reasons I like him so much. Oilers need more than one.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    Larkin-Gaudreau-Kane.

    Nice speedy line……

  4. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    I think I’m way higher on the G signing than most. It seems pretty likely that if he doesn’t impress in camp then he will jet back to the KHL. It’s essentially either a shoring of the position or an easy chance at a do-over with Montoya in the wings.

    If the team had consistently good goaltending last year and a healthy Sek then the year plays out very differently. This team still isn’t a contender, but that was decided the day they locked up Drai at 8.5. They are building a very strong team for 2 years from now when the young d has matured and the aging d can be moved.

    While being admittedly naive and optimistic, the only concern I have is upgrading Lucic into a top 6 player as that would be an enormous boost to the roster in 2 years time.

  5. --hudson-- says:

    I’m glad Hall isn’t playing at the worlds. Seeing him with Nuge, Eberle and McD would be too much.

    Enjoyed reading your approach LT! More of it, any way you slice it is appreciated.

  6. who says:

    That two way winger you are hoping for sounds a lot like Pouliot doesn’t it?
    Still don’t understand that buyout. Tmac must have hated him.

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    7th defenseman: have we lost all faith that Gryba can handle this and PB duties? And PK?

  8. jm363561 says:

    who:
    That two way winger you are hoping for sounds a lot like Pouliot doesn’t it?
    Still don’t understand that buyout. Tmac must have hated him.

    This was the moment at which I wondered if Chia really was as good as advertised. I agree Pouliot must have really pissed someone off. He was an NHL two way player, could kill penalties, so why load $1m+ on to the next two season’s cap hit by buying him out……. and then it turns out we underspent the fucking cap and could have absorbed the last year of his contract.

  9. tileguy says:

    Throw all the cap space at one player, a sniper. Port, starboard, dosen’t matter, but it needs to be someone who can deposit the biscuit 30+ times. I’ll take my chances with everything else.

  10. megahurts says:

    Great post! I would like to read more on your thinking behind the estimations of other areas too

  11. digger50 says:

    Excellent breakdown today LT. Very sound thinking.

    Unfortunately my mind filled in the “need” list with former Oilers.

    Veteran who winger – Eberle even with his warts would have filled that role.

    Puck moving D – Shultz would do fine

    7th dman – Brandon Davidson would have been excellent

    Two way winger , penalty killer, 15 goals – maybe Pouliot

    Each of these players had one thing in common. Coach didn’t like them and thus shipped out. I would tnotgo out of my way to defend these guys in a long conversation, but I think the Org was just too quick on the draw, shipping them out with nobody to fill in.

    Today it seems we have a similar problem. Not enough nhl replacements so we are going to cast around for replacements, hope and pray.

    You can never have a good solid pipeline of players if you keep casting them out at the top end. Davidson is a good example, or Pitlick. We are now preaching draft, draft, draft and develop. This is good, but we have to remember they develop into different roles, not all top players. And when we finally get an NHLer, keep him, they are more valuable than another third rounder bet.

    I understand we’ll be talking about the roster all summer and why not, that’s what we do. The one uncontrollable factor in your (our) models though, seems to be the coach. What will he do or not do in systems, lines, promotions, demotions, roster choice and the list goes on. I do believe that he will be the largest unpredictable factor affecting this seasons projections.

  12. godot10 says:

    tileguy:
    Throw all the cap space at one player, a sniper. Port, starboard, dosen’t matter, but it needs to be someone who can deposit the biscuit 30+ times. I’ll take my chances with everything else.

    No…the priority should be a solid all around speedy winger. McDavid and Draisaitl are the shooters the Oilers are looking for. One wants forwards good enough to give McDavid and Draisaitl a touch more space and time

    McDavid and Draisaitl will be more deadly the more their wingers are able to play give and go with them. We have just seen this with Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid.

  13. Woogie63 says:

    If Sekera has a very good WC, the summer will be quite. If he struggles PC needs to be very active to solve that defense.

  14. Woogie63 says:

    digger50,

    The other thing, Pouilot, Eberle, Schultz and Davidson have in common is the team was terrible when they were here.

  15. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    7th defenseman: have we lost all faith that Gryba can handle this and PB duties? And PK?

    I still like Grybas game. I think he can be useful at 7d, deployed against grinding teams and adds some balance for some of our undersized d. Of course I doubt he has gotten faster, rather slower playing in Bakersfield. Can’t see him in the these playoffs either so I imagine we need to get Bear or Jones groomed.

  16. digger50 says:

    Woogie63:
    digger50,

    The other thing, Pouilot, Eberle, Schultz and Davidson have in common is the team was terrible when they were hear.

    So shipping them out has really worked then hasn’t it?

    Hall has the same thing in common

  17. tileguy says:

    godot10: No…the priority should be a solid all around speedy winger.McDavid and Draisaitl are the shooters the Oilers are looking for.One wants forwards good enough to give McDavid and Draisaitl a touch more space and time

    McDavid and Draisaitl will be more deadly the more their wingers are able to play give and go with them.We have just seen this with Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid.

    Disagree! I’m tired of watching the Caggiulas and Abergs missing glorious opportunities, not to mention creating their own with hard quick releases.

  18. digger50 says:

    tileguy:
    Throw all the cap space at one player, a sniper. Port, starboard, dosen’t matter, but it needs to be someone who can deposit the biscuit 30+ times. I’ll take my chances with everything else.

    I’m on board with this idea.

    Doesn’t matter position or goal scorer, playmaker. The addition of one very good player, the right player, a difference maker will be much more valuable than trying out another group of peripheral players.

  19. tileguy says:

    digger50: I’m on board with this idea.

    Doesn’t matter position or goal scorer, playmaker. The addition of one very good player, the right player, a difference maker will be much more valuable than trying out another group of peripheral players.

    Just imagine what the PP would look like.

  20. godot10 says:

    tileguy: Disagree! I’m tired of watching the Caggiulas and Abergs missing glorious opportunities, not to mention creating their own with hard quick releases.

    Caggiula and Aberg aren’t really NHL players (yet, maybe never). One proven all around speedy winger who is a strong passer helps more than a one dimensional shooter.

    McDavid and Draisaitl are the goal scorers the Oilers are looking for.

    A player like Tobias Rieder.

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I think this is what LT is advocationg (and I think I would agree):

    RNH-CMD-Rattie (placeholder)
    NewGuy-Drai-Pool
    Lucic-Strome-Kailer
    Drake-Jar-Kassian
    Aberg

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Russel
    NewGuy

    – Less games missed from the D, add a solid W

    – If/when Pool and Kailer are playing with the stud C’s and contributing, Cup has to wait till then

    – I would cheer for +/- this team a lot, and the wingers all fight to earn time with the stud C’s

    – I prefer this to big-game hunting: let it grow, get into the playoffs, make some noise

    – Koski signing means he plays min. 25 games if he’s not garbage, and Talbot is not resigned, or at best he signs as a 1B, and the other goalers in the system also grow.

    – Which is fine. I think they made the call that Talbot isn’t long-term Cup goalie (I agree)

  22. Scungilli Slushy says:

    digger50:
    Excellent breakdown today LT. Very sound thinking.

    Unfortunately my mind filled in the “need” list with former Oilers.

    Veteran who winger – Eberle even with his warts would have filled that role.

    Puck moving D – Shultz would do fine

    7th dman – Brandon Davidson would have been excellent

    Two way winger , penalty killer, 15 goals – maybe Pouliot

    Each of these players had one thing in common. Coach didn’t like them and thus shipped out. I would tnotgo out of my way to defend these guys in a long conversation, but I think the Org was just too quick on the draw, shipping them out with nobody to fill in.

    Today it seems we have a similar problem. Not enough nhl replacements so we are going to cast around for replacements, hope and pray.

    You can never have a good solid pipeline of players if you keep casting them out at the top end. Davidson is a good example, or Pitlick. We are now preaching draft, draft, draft and develop. This is good, but we have to remember they develop into different roles, not all top players. And when we finally get an NHLer, keep him, they are more valuable than another third rounder bet.

    I understand we’ll be talking about the roster all summer and why not, that’s what we do. The one uncontrollable factor in your (our) models though, seems to be the coach. What will he do or not do in systems, lines, promotions, demotions, roster choice and the list goes on. I do believe that he will be the largest unpredictable factor affecting this seasons projections.

    I agree it would be better to have replacements ready. PC and McLellan I would think were mandated to get the team playing a more robust game. Culture change. The Oilers were widely known as we have heard from PC McL Lucic and others to be a team that folded under pressure and was easy to play against – skilled butnot hard on the puck.

    I think to some degree they have moved the dial forward. Playing well this current group can play with any team and have had success against all of the top teams. Of course many of them had prolonged periods of poor play for whatever reason, and I do think coaching played a big role in that.

    Eberle and Schultz had in common that they aren’t hard on the puck. Both consistently produce, and are consistently inconsistent defensively. MacT also blew it and Schultz wasn’t worth what they had to sign him for. More than a bag of pucks would have been a better idea though for him.

    Davidson and Pitlick are ok, I preferred Pitlick, but they aren’t going to make or break the team. Davidson seems to have trouble sticking anywhere.

    Pouliot has to have behind the scenes issues IMO. Another guy that doesn’t stick anywhere. He has talent but is also inconsistent, nobody seems to value what he does.

    I do think the idea of what they are trying to do is right. To go deep in the playoffs you need goaltending, skill, but also an ability to play two ways and be on the puck all of the time.

    I’m not confident PC and McL can get the job done, but they at least have turned the ship somewhat.

    We’ll see who PC can acquire, it would help the coaches a ton to have players that show up every game and follow the plan, win their assignments. Every strong team plays their system well, everyone buys in.

  23. tileguy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,
    add a solid W. What would your idea of a solid winger be?

  24. anjinsan says:

    digger50,

    You’ve itemized self-inflicted asset losses by management. And it doesn’t even include the really major asset losses. I read through the line items, turn my palms and eyes to the sky and ask — how on Earth are these people still minding the store? A public outcry is long overdue.

  25. flea says:

    McDavid sets up Parayko to tie the Canada USA game about 8 min left in the third.

  26. jtblack says:

    LT: seems like your “tone” from last summer to today; is a little more Frustrated? or your patience are running thin with the GM?

    Just my 2 cents.

    Thanks for all you do!

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    tileguy:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,
    add a solid W. What would your idea of a solid winger be?

    – Best case scenario: a Maroon v.2.0 from 2 years ago signing: who fits in with skill and makes a difference. I don’t know who that person is, but no Hoffman or Grabner please

    – But that’s the hard question you ask: what snack-bracket are you aiming for?

  28. russ99 says:

    digger50:
    Excellent breakdown today LT. Very sound thinking.

    Unfortunately my mind filled in the “need” list with former Oilers.

    Veteran who winger – Eberle even with his warts would have filled that role.

    Puck moving D – Shultz would do fine

    7th dman – Brandon Davidson would have been excellent

    Two way winger , penalty killer, 15 goals – maybe Pouliot

    Each of these players had one thing in common. Coach didn’t like them and thus shipped out. I would tnotgo out of my way to defend these guys in a long conversation, but I think the Org was just too quick on the draw, shipping them out with nobody to fill in.

    Today it seems we have a similar problem. Not enough nhl replacements so we are going to cast around for replacements, hope and pray.

    You can never have a good solid pipeline of players if you keep casting them out at the top end. Davidson is a good example, or Pitlick. We are now preaching draft, draft, draft and develop. This is good, but we have to remember they develop into different roles, not all top players. And when we finally get an NHLer, keep him, they are more valuable than another third rounder bet.

    I understand we’ll be talking about the roster all summer and why not, that’s what we do. The one uncontrollable factor in your (our) models though, seems to be the coach. What will he do or not do in systems, lines, promotions, demotions, roster choice and the list goes on. I do believe that he will be the largest unpredictable factor affecting this seasons projections.

    The issue is who they replaced them with.

    One thing Chiarelli does that really bugs me, and he’s done it every year he’s been here is assuming younger players can handle NHL roles, and stops short at acquisition because he assumes that this will be good enough.

    Eberle, Schultz, Davidson and Pouliot all were known for their flaws, and in Pouliot’s case there were leaks through the MSM that he didn’t buy in to the program, bristled to coaching staff edicts to have him lead by example, and was a disruptive influence to the younger players in the room. They tried to trade him all last season and while there’s no proof, I assume even Vegas didn’t want him.

    But signing/promoting a bunch of guys because of their birth year 1994 and rushing first picks to the bigs when it’s obvious they need CHL/AHL adjustment time (Puljujarvi needed time to acclimate to NA, and Yamamoto just isn’t ready yet) then that causes big issues, when players aren’t here to handle specific NHL roles.

    We can’t make the same mistake this year. Bandaging up the roster with 2-3 additions and continuing with the same players making the same mistakes and the same players not ready for NHL roles is a recipe for disaster.

  29. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I think this is what LT is advocationg (and I think I would agree):

    RNH-CMD-Rattie (placeholder)
    NewGuy-Drai-Pool
    Lucic-Strome-Kailer
    Drake-Jar-Kassian
    Aberg

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning
    Sek-Russel
    NewGuy

    – Less games missed from the D, add a solid W

    – If/when Pool and Kailer are playing with the stud C’s and contributing, Cup has to wait till then

    – I would cheer for +/- this team a lot, and the wingers all fight to earn time with the stud C’s

    – I prefer this to big-game hunting: let it grow, get into the playoffs, make some noise

    – Koski signing means he plays min. 25 games if he’s not garbage, and Talbot is not resigned, or at best he signs as a 1B, and the other goalers in the system also grow.

    – Which is fine.I think they made the call that Talbot isn’t long-term Cup goalie (I agree)

    I would really like to see them stop asking wingers to play opposite side to what they like. Euros quite often play off wing. Swedish mentioned Slepy played LW in Europe, McL had him as RW a lot. I think it hurt him.

    Some players can play either, but I think many have a drop off such as most D do. I think it affects how they attack and reduces offensive effectiveness which was clearly an issue last season.

  30. Woogie63 says:

    digger50: So shipping them out has really worked then hasn’t it?

    Hall has the same thing in common

    The 5 years before PC came to the Oilers we 156 wins in 458 games a 34% win %.

    These were some of the leaders/players that own that result. Its bad.

    This level of bad is not going to be fixed overnight,

  31. commonfan29 says:

    Am I the only one dreading a Chia interview later this summer where he talks about Nurse’s strong play at the World Championships as a factor in why his contract extension is pricier than anticipated?

  32. boopronger says:

    A top pairing d man is far and away the biggest need for this team IMHO

  33. flea says:

    McDavid takes a penalty late in the overtime against the USA. As per IIHF rules McDavid can’t shoot and has to stay in the penalty box for the shootout. (his other option is to go to the dressing room.

  34. godot10 says:

    Woogie63: The 5 years before PC came to the Oilers we 156 wins in 458 games a 34% win %.

    These were some of the leaders/players that own that result.Its bad.

    This level of bad is not going to be fixed overnight,

    Three years is not overnight.

    Schutlz, Petry, Hall, Eberle, etc. have shown elsewhere that they are not the problem.

    The Oilers keep on giving the wrong coaches the extended opportunity.

  35. Rafa Nadal says:

    flea:
    McDavid takes a penalty late in the overtime against the USA. As per IIHF rules McDavid can’t shoot and has to stay in the penalty box for the shootout. (his other option is to go to the dressing room.

    This is actually hilarious.

  36. dustrock says:

    commonfan29:
    Am I the only one dreading a Chia interview later this summer where he talks about Nurse’s strong play at the World Championships as a factor in why his contract extension is pricier than anticipated?

    Don’t worry, Nurse was pretty poor today. Good news for everybody!

  37. John Chambers says:

    The 2019 1st rd pick + Matt Benning for Chris Tanev with $1M salary being paid by the Aquilinis.

    I think if the Oilers can reduce GA’s at 5×5 and on the PK, along with some meat regression on the PP, we should be back into the playoffs.

    We can add a winger or two at the deadline for 3rd round picks.

    They should grab the best available D this summer and let that kid simmer for a couple of years while we ride out the veteran contracts on D.

  38. Bad Seed says:

    John Chambers:
    The 2019 1st rd pick + Matt Benning for Chris Tanev with $1M salary being paid by the Aquilinis.

    I think if the Oilers can reduce GA’s at 5×5 and on the PK, along with some meat regression on the PP, we should be back into the playoffs.

    We can add a winger or two at the deadline for 3rd round picks.

    They should grab the best available D this summer and let that kid simmer for a couple of years while we ride out the veteran contracts on D.

    I don’t think we should ever trade a first rounder away. The draft is the only thing an Oiler fan can look forward to….

  39. Bos8 says:

    Boy, talk about vitriol. That Chia is all things dark and evil. And if you repeat it eleventeen times that will prove just how nefarious he really is.

    Now I have no stake in the pot but I like a lot of things Chia did: develop amateur scouting, change the team focus establish a talent pool,

    When I see a Bear, Jones, Samorukov, Marody, Safin, Maximov, Benson competing for jobs, that spells a job well done. And I haven’t mentioned the two Swedes on D. The larger the pool of talent the better the odds.

    Just saying.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50: I still like Grybas game. I think he can be useful at 7d, deployed against grinding teams and adds some balance for some of our undersized d. Of course I doubt he has gotten faster, rather slower playing in Bakersfield. Can’t see him in the these playoffs either so I imagine we need to get Bear or Jones groomed.

    Yeah, but a big part of the 7th D-man’s job is sitting in the press box, while the young guys get groomed in the minors, so that’s why I’d like to see a guy like Gryba (doesn’t have to be him) as 7th D. If someone gets injured, you recall Bear / Jones etc from Bakersfield, but only if you’re going to give them playing time.

  41. Bos8 says:

    godot10: Three years is not overnight.

    Schutlz, Petry, Hall, Eberle, etc. have shown elsewhere that they are not the problem.

    The Oilerskeep on giving the wrong coaches the extended opportunity.

    The odds of TMac doing a 180 ie not driving Talbot into the ground, forgetting the mcblender, playing his system in the next 25 games are miniscule.

    For example, the season was done and Montoya sat on the bench. Why?

  42. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, I like your needs list. Let’s see if I can do it on a budget.

    Veteran scoring right winger. This is basically replacing Eberle, in the short term. Eventually Puljujarvi and Yamamoto will nail down the top two spots but that’s too big an ask for next season.

    T.Vanek 1 yr for $3M. Raise from this year but need the Right-handed shot on the PP and someone who can play with talent if (perchance) Rattie and the kids (JP, Yamamoto) aren’t ready. Not making this mistake again.

    •Two-way left winger. How many Oilers forwards are capable two-way players? Not enough. A 15-goal left winger who can penalty kill and mark his man would be a fabulous addition to the current group.

    We have him. JJ Khaira. But that creates a hole in the #4 center slot so D.Ryan 1 yr $1.8M.

    •Puck mover. In my opinion this isn’t a priority but if there’s a superior offensive defenseman to Klefbom and Sekera available, no harm in an upgrade.

    Agree that this isn’t a priority and you may find the solution within but I would add to the options by getting D.Sproul RHD for 2yrs $950K. If he beats out Benning or creates an obstacle for Bear, this is a good thing.

    •No. 7 defender. It isn’t a gigantic need and someone like Stanton could fill it, but the depth currently won’t be enough for a long, grueling season.

    Again, I would go with a RHD option, as I prefer Russell on the left hand side. So try for A.Sustr, he won’t be a bargain but at 27 you may be able to get him at a 1yr $2M and allow you to contemplate a trade of Russell for futures with Calgary (only team I see Russell waiving his NMC for).

  43. digger50 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I agree it would be better to have replacements ready. PC and McLellan I would think were mandated to get the team playing a more robust game. Culture change. The Oilers were widely known as we have heard from PC McL Lucic and others to be a team that folded under pressure and was easy to play against – skilled butnot hard on the puck.

    I think to some degree they have moved the dial forward. Playing well this current group can play with any team and have had success against all of the top teams. Of course many of them had prolonged periods of poor play for whatever reason, and I do think coaching played a big role in that.

    Eberle and Schultz had in common that they aren’t hard on the puck. Both consistently produce, and are consistently inconsistent defensively. MacT also blew it and Schultz wasn’t worth what they had to sign him for. More than a bag of pucks would have been a better idea though for him.

    Davidson and Pitlick are ok, I preferred Pitlick, but they aren’t going to make or break the team. Davidson seems to have trouble sticking anywhere.

    Pouliot has to have behind the scenes issues IMO. Another guy that doesn’t stick anywhere. He has talent but is also inconsistent, nobody seems to value what he does.

    I do think the idea of what they are trying to do is right. To go deep in the playoffs you need goaltending, skill, but also an ability to play two ways and be on the puck all of the time.

    I’m not confident PC and McL can get the job done, but they at least have turned the ship somewhat.

    We’ll see who PC can acquire, it would help the coaches a ton to have players that show up every game and follow the plan, win their assignments. Every strong team plays their system well, everyone buys in.

    Exactly it. I’m not trying to debate the qualities and fit of those that have moved on. The team can always improve.
    The issue is moving them or casting them off as if they have no value and are oh so simple to replace.
    Just funny how the holes in the roster are those from sending guys away.

  44. Ribs says:

    Veteran scoring right winger. This is basically replacing Eberle, in the short term. Eventually Puljujarvi and Yamamoto will nail down the top two spots but that’s too big an ask for next season.

    How about an aging superstar who can show Draisatl and Puljujarvi how to use those big bodies to make scoring goals easier. Jaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

  45. digger50 says:

    Comment about changing culture. You often here in organizations “change the people or change the people”

    I’ll try a VOR type story.

    There was a quite famous zoo that had an exhibit of lions and a ride where all the people would get on the ride and pass by the lion enclosure.

    They wanted the lion out where he could be seen, but he just wouldn’t buy into the system.

    So they changed the lion, this one even bigger and better. However, they still could not make a 600 pound lion do what they wanted. The lion would just not sit out on the rocks where he could be seen by all, and the tourists passed by disappointed all day.

    They changed out that lion for two lions. Double the chances. Still disappointment. Lions would just not behave as the Zoo wanted them too.

    It wasn’t the zookeepers who finally solved the problem, it was the HVAC guy who came up with the answer.

    He went under one big dominant rock and installed a heater. And then an air conditioning outlet. So that on cold days that rock was the warmest place to sit in the whole enclosure; and on warm days it was the coolest place to sit. The lions sat exactly where they were supposed to, when they were supposed to.

    In order to change behaviour you don’t always have to change the people, you just have to change the environment.

  46. Bos8 says:

    The problem was in the coaching, mainly the PK and PP.

    I still hate the Russell signing.

    Granted the top three defensemen were injured or otherwise non factors and the goaltender had been rode hard and put away damp. On top of that no one knew their job description, total confusion. You could have a good game and be on the fourth line the next game.

    Players were introducing themselves to their line mates halfway through the season.

    Pujljarvi is frustrated, no shit.

    Audit at season’s end – Result.. As you were.

    Good luck on your future endeavors.

  47. wood99 says:

    Quinn Hughes impressed the shit out of me. Much better then I thought.

  48. Alpine says:

    Gregor and Matheson both putting feelers out for a 10 OV and/or Puljujarvi for Faulk swap. You just know they’re being briefed on it by the org. Faulk is basically their Jultz in Carolina. They should laugh all the way to the bank if we offer up an asset like 98 for him.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    The “games played re:” has many games played by players that should be nowhere near the NHL.

    It shows a lack of forward depth more than anything.

    At the same time, the only “material” acquisition (i.e. commit to a player with term) is to the right side of the defence – only stop gaps in the top 6 forwards. I would commit a few years to a D. Ryan.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Puck mover. In my opinion this isn’t a priority but if there’s a superior offensive defenseman to Klefbom and Sekera available, no harm in an upgrade.”

    To me, a puck mover for the right side doesn’t necessarily need to be a superior offensive d-man.

    I don’t need a 50 point d-man but someone that can play 20-22 minutes a game in the top 4 and move the puck efficiently. Someone to ensure that Russell is not slotted in as the 2RD for the season (as he has been the last two years).

  51. RonnieB says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Russell would waive for Calgary but why would they want him ?
    Their top 5 is Giordano Hamilton Brodie Hamonic and Stone with Kulak Andersson and Kylington pushing up from below.
    Also, they had the entire summer of 2016 to bring him back as a free agent after trading him at the deadline, and apparently didn’t want him then.

  52. Alpine says:

    wood99:
    Quinn Hughes impressed the shit out of me. Much better then I thought.

    If there’s one D outside of Dahlin I think definitely won’t drop to 10th overall, it’s Hughes. All the others I can see teams having issues with, but Hughes doesn’t have many flags outside of his size (smith and Boqvist aren’t much bigger) and his performances have just been so damn good.

  53. RonnieB says:

    Alpine:
    Gregor and Matheson both putting feelers out for a 10 OV and/or Puljujarvi for Faulk swap. You just know they’re being briefed on it by the org. Faulk is basically their Jultz in Carolina. They should laugh all the way to the bank if we offer up an asset like 98 for him.

    I hope they’re kidding. Trading a #4 and a #10 pick for a declining D because trading a #16 and #33 worked so well last time.

  54. OmJo says:

    Bos8: Now I have no stake in the pot but I like a lot of things Chia did: develop amateur scouting, change the team focus establish a talent pool,

    Yes, I have to give him that, too. Chiarelli is so elite at establishing a talent pool he even went out of his way to do it for the Islanders and Devils, too.

  55. dustrock says:

    Alpine: If there’s one D outside of Dahlin I think definitely won’t drop to 10th overall, it’s Hughes. All the others I can see teams having issues with, but Hughes doesn’t have many flags outside of his size (smith and Boqvist aren’t much bigger) and his performances have just been so damn good.

    Yes. He arguably looked like the best defenceman on the ice, at least for the US. No, I’ll include Canada there as well.

  56. Doug McLachlan says:

    RonnieB:
    Doug McLachlan,

    Russell would waive for Calgary but why would they want him ?
    Their top 5 is Giordano Hamilton Brodie Hamonic and Stone with Kulak Andersson and Kylington pushing up from below.
    Also, they had the entire summer of 2016 to bring him back as a free agent after trading him at the deadline, and apparently didn’t want him then.

    In 2016 the Flames weren’t prepared to meet his price of multi-years at around $5M per season. He’s a million less than that now and, as hard as it is for us to accept, there is a “grittitude” factor to Russell’s game that is really liked by many around the league. It wasn’t, IMO, crocodile tears that were shed when they dealt him to Dallas – they wanted him back just at a better price than he was asking for when the cap was $71M or so.

    Calgary is going into a summer two seasons removed from a listless effort in the first round against Anaheim and this season’s collapse following the Smith injury. I think that Smith was a revelation for the Flames – certainly didn’t expect him to perform that well – and I attributed his success, in part, to a good d-corps in front of him. Listening to the narrative coming out of Cowtown, however, all the familiar buzzwords about a lack of “compete”, “maturity” and “culture” has me expecting a trade from one of their core players and it isn’t going to be Gaudreau or Monahan. One player I suspect they have soured on up front is Sam Bennett (Calgary’s version of one year of experience for three straight years).

    I know that they would like to deal TJ Brodie but the best return for them from the D and a player who has, for whatever reason, rumours swirling around him is Hamilton.

    Calgary, despite my strongest wishes, is not dealing Hamilton to Edmonton but could see him head to Toronto in a Nylander trade to get the RHD that Babcock has wanted for a while. That creates a hole on the Calgary blueline and while they have players coming up (Fox and Valimaki moreso than Kulak and Kylington, IMO, though we are on the same page with respect to Andersson) I can see them slotting Russell in as a character piece.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Throw all the cap space at one player, a sniper. Port, starboard, dosen’t matter, but it needs to be someone who can deposit the biscuit 30+ times. I’ll take my chances with everything else.

    What money? There is no money to throw.

    Also, to me, top 6 winger is the wrong position to throw that money at – talented young players on their ELC will be able to score 30 on McDavid’s wing – that is where we get our value contracts.

  58. Doug McLachlan says:

    Alpine:
    Gregor and Matheson both putting feelers out for a 10 OV and/or Puljujarvi for Faulk swap. You just know they’re being briefed on it by the org. Faulk is basically their Jultz in Carolina. They should laugh all the way to the bank if we offer up an asset like 98 for him.

    Oh they like JP, to be sure, and he has a history with Aho.

    I know Chia prefers the one-for-one trades but what about this:

    Oilers send Carolina: A.Sekera (would need to waive his NMC to return to the place he had his best offensive season – 11g 33a); J.Puljujarvi (a 4th overall with two years pro experience and still on his ELC); and the Oilers’ 10th OV pick. Total cap for this year of $6.425M (plus JP’s bonuses) and a total cash hit of the same.

    Carolina sends to Edmonton: J.Faulk (Puck moving RHD who moves to second pairing in Edmonton); J.Skinner (only one year and then he’s a UFA but he’s a 6x 20 goal man); and the Hurricane’s 2nd OV pick (where we take, presumably, Svechnikov). Total cap for this year $10.56M but a cash hit (or savings for Carolina) of $12M.

  59. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It occurred to me that Koskinen is considered the 3rd best Finnish goaler by Finland, so he’s got that going for him.

  60. Bos8 says:

    OmJo: Yes, I have to give him that, too. Chiarelli is so elite at establishing a talent pool he even went out of his way to do it for the Islanders and Devils, too.

    You want McDavid and Drai? Two of the three six mil guys have to go. I voted Nuge because center.

    You’ve been punching in the Featherweight division too long.

  61. magneto says:

    Doug McLachlan: Oh they like JP, to be sure, and he has a history with Aho.

    I know Chia prefers the one-for-one trades but what about this:

    Oilers send Carolina: A.Sekera (would need to waive his NMC to return to the place he had his best offensive season – 11g 33a); J.Puljujarvi (a 4th overall with two years pro experience and still on his ELC); and the Oilers’ 10th OV pick.Total cap for this year of $6.425M (plus JP’s bonuses) and a total cash hit of the same.

    Carolina sends to Edmonton: J.Faulk (Puck moving RHD who moves to second pairing in Edmonton); J.Skinner (only one year and then he’s a UFA but he’s a 6x 20 goal man); and the Hurricane’s 2nd OV pick (where we take, presumably, Svechnikov).Total cap for this year $10.56M but a cash hit (or savings for Carolina) of $12M.

    There is no possible way Carolina does this. Maybe take out the 2nd and it would be closer.
    New owner looking to spend closer to the cap, don’t need to shed salary or all the goals in that deal

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    John Chambers:
    The 2019 1st rd pick + Matt Benning for Chris Tanev with $1M salary being paid by the Aquilinis.

    I think if the Oilers can reduce GA’s at 5×5 and on the PK, along with some meat regression on the PP, we should be back into the playoffs.

    We can add a winger or two at the deadline for 3rd round picks.

    They should grab the best available D this summer and let that kid simmer for a couple of years while we ride out the veteran contracts on D.

    I don’t think Tanev will cost that much.

  63. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Oh they like JP, to be sure, and he has a history with Aho.

    I know Chia prefers the one-for-one trades but what about this:

    Oilers send Carolina: A.Sekera (would need to waive his NMC to return to the place he had his best offensive season – 11g 33a); J.Puljujarvi (a 4th overall with two years pro experience and still on his ELC); and the Oilers’ 10th OV pick.Total cap for this year of $6.425M (plus JP’s bonuses) and a total cash hit of the same.

    Carolina sends to Edmonton: J.Faulk (Puck moving RHD who moves to second pairing in Edmonton); J.Skinner (only one year and then he’s a UFA but he’s a 6x 20 goal man); and the Hurricane’s 2nd OV pick (where we take, presumably, Svechnikov).Total cap for this year $10.56M but a cash hit (or savings for Carolina) of $12M.

    Carolina has zero need for Andrej Sekera. They are overloaded with young cheap talented D. That is why they want to get rid of Faulk. They have cheap D to replace him. They are not going to re-sign him. So they would rather spend the money elsewhere, like maybe signing John Tavares.

    And they aren’t giving up the #2. Svechnikov basically is their dream player. Where they can draft the best player where they have the greatest need (apart from a goaltender).

    I’d do Puljujarvi for Faulk for Puljujarvi’s sake. It is sad seeing McLellan ruin his career.

  64. ArmchairGM says:

    Alpine:
    Gregor and Matheson both putting feelers out for a 10 OV and/or Puljujarvi for Faulk swap. You just know they’re being briefed on it by the org. Faulk is basically their Jultz in Carolina. They should laugh all the way to the bank if we offer up an asset like 98 for him.

    Either would be a massive overpay. A second and a B prospect should suffice.

  65. Alpine says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t think Tanev will cost that much.

    Three years at left a decent cap hit, but only plays 60ish games per year. I think if his health record is better you don’t get him for 10 + Benning. I don’t think Benning has a ton of value and I don’t move Tanev if I’m VAN unless a significant piece comes back. Which 10 OV would be.

  66. leadfarmer says:

    wood99:
    Quinn Hughes impressed the shit out of me. Much better then I thought.

    Very high on him. If we could trade up to grab him i would be ecstatic

  67. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I think a 28 year old that hasn’t had a healthy season in a decade is a bad place to go shopping, plus the cost within the division will be higher. You are pretty much guaranteed to miss him between 1/2 and 1/3 of the season. We need someone a little more dependable

  68. McSorley33 says:

    To be sure the messenger is going to be shot here…

    Cult of Hockey quoting Drew Remenda:

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/shots-fired-drew-remenda-firing-the-assistant-coach-to-me-is-ridiculous

    Remenda said if you look at the Oilers, they got slower and weren’t as fast, losing Jordan Eberle, Tyler Pitlick and Benoit Pouliot. “They didn’t replace that speed. They got top line guys that just aren’t fast enough anymore. Milan Lucic, I don’t know if you watched guys, but there is a guy who really needs to change his game in order to compete in the new National Hockey League. If you’re not fast, you’re not playing in this league any more.”

    **************************************************************************************************************

    Eric Gryba as a 7D ?

  69. VOR says:

    Let’s see

    $64,896,167
    $2,500,000 in bonuses
    Strome $3,000,000
    Cammalleri replacement $1,000,000
    Slepy replacement $925,000
    Cags $1,275,000
    Pakarinen replacement $700,000
    Benning $2,000,000
    Nurse $3,600,000
    Auvitu replacement $900,000

    Total cap hit $80,796,167
    Highest probable cap $82,000,000.

    Available room for new player $1,203,833

  70. Alpine says:

    VOR:
    Let’s see

    $64,896,167
    $2,500,000 in bonuses
    Strome $3,000,000
    Cammalleri replacement $1,000,000
    Slepy replacement$925,000
    Cags $1,275,000
    Pakarinen replacement $700,000
    Benning $2,000,000
    Nurse $3,600,000
    Auvitu replacement $900,000

    Total cap hit $80,796,167
    Highest probable cap $82,000,000.

    Available room for new player $1,203,833

    Ooooouuuuuuuuucccchhhhhh.

    Might be able to save some money on Cammy/Slepy/Auvitu replacements but that still might only add up to an extra 500-750K. Probably see one of the D moved and potentially Kassian will be out the door too.

  71. anjinsan says:

    There is 10X more asset management sense expressed here than in Chiarelli’s behavior.

  72. Alpine says:

    I still wonder if The Hamonic Template is something the Oilers explore for Klefbom, i.e. sending him out for picks/prospects to use as potential trade bait. I really hate coming up with Klef trade scenarios because I don’t want Mr. Dreamy to go but the Oilers won’t trade Nurse and they probably can’t trade Sekera or Russell for a year or two.

    Something like to Klef to NJ for their 1st and Quenneville (strong AHL numbers, local kid lol, former 1st rounder), and maybe Moore as a depth piece. New Jersey gets a good cost controlled D, Oilers get an extra first to play with and some cap space and an NHL ready prospect with at least middle 6 potential.

    Again I’m really rife to trade Klef, but I’m not sure you can improve a) the wing depth b) right side defence c) prospect pool all in this offseason, without freeing up more space. That extra first gives the Oilers a lot of options and means they may not have to trade 10 OV for a RHD or LW.

    I think adding an extra high pick will work better for trading as teams that would want Klef might not have the forward or defenseman we need. Would be nice to keep all our young assets but the Oilers have painted themselves into a corner such that it won’t be plausible if they want improve aspects of their roster within the current cap constraints.

  73. Wilde says:

    Well, at least with the Koskinen signing / / the Bob Green appearance on Oilers Now you know they’re looking at moving out a player instead of the 1st this year for their trade target.

    Unless it’s gonna be both.

    Haha.

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: The 5 years before PC came to the Oilers we 156 wins in 458 games a 34% win %.

    These were some of the leaders/players that own that result.Its bad.

    This level of bad is not going to be fixed overnight,

    The people and players who own that record are not the ones you usually name though.

    i don’t want to make a massive list, but here’s some players off the 11/12 roster:

    Theo Peckham
    Darcy Hordichuck
    Ben Eager
    Nick Schultz
    Lennard Petrell
    Cam Barker
    Cotton Teubert
    Ryan O’Marra
    Corey Potter
    Ryan Jones
    Eric Belanger

    That’s one year.

    There was 10 years of this.

    The Tambellini Era was particularly bad.

    Mark Messier couldn’t leadership those players into a 25th place finish.

  75. Yeti says:

    Why wouldn’t the Oilers consider trading Nurse? That absolutely has to be on the table if seriously looking to address the LD / RD balance. He has the most value of tradeable assets.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50:
    Comment about changing culture. You often here in organizations “change the people or change the people”

    I’ll try a VOR type story.

    There was a quite famous zoo that had an exhibit of lions and a ride where all the people would get on the ride and pass by the lion enclosure.

    They wanted the lion out where he could be seen, but he just wouldn’t buy into the system.

    So they changed the lion, this one even bigger and better. However, they still could not make a 600 pound lion do what they wanted. The lion would just not sit out on the rocks where he could be seen by all, and the tourists passed by disappointed all day.

    They changed out that lion for two lions. Double the chances. Still disappointment. Lions would just not behave as the Zoo wanted them too.

    It wasn’t the zookeepers who finally solved the problem, it was the HVAC guy who came up with the answer.

    He went under one big dominant rock and installed a heater. And then an air conditioning outlet. So that on cold days that rock was the warmest place to sit in the whole enclosure; and on warm days it was the coolest place to sit. The lions sat exactly where they were supposed to, when they were supposed to.

    In order to change behaviour you don’t always have to change the people, you just have to change the environment.

    That’s awesome.

  77. Woogie63 says:

    godot10: Three years is not overnight.

    Schutlz, Petry, Hall, Eberle, etc. have shown elsewhere that they are not the problem.

    The Oilerskeep on giving the wrong coaches the extended opportunity.

    I see you on this type of point a lot. The team was bad when these guys were the leaders. Fans were booing, throwing jerseys on the ice. That group could not get it done.

    That does not mean they were the problem. By moving on they may have;

    Grown up/taken their craft more serious/found a better role on the new team.

    When Shultz went to Pittsburgh, who did not think that Sid and that leadership group would help Shultz become a better pro athlete.

    Just like Nurse playing with Larsson and Rattie playing with McDavid or Puljujarvi playing with Strome.

    Those ex Oilers were not the problem, but they were not the solution in Edmonton.

  78. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Veteran scoring right winger. This is basically replacing Eberle, in the short term.

    Remember when it went
    Hemsky
    Eberle
    Yakupov

    And we were so concerned about which should play on the first line?

    hahahah.

  79. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The people and players who own that record are not the ones you usually name though.

    i don’t want to make a massive list, but here’s some players off the 11/12 roster:

    Theo Peckham
    Darcy Hordichuck
    Ben Eager
    Nick Schultz
    Lennard Petrell
    Cam Barker
    Cotton Teubert
    Ryan O’Marra
    Corey Potter
    Ryan Jones
    Eric Belanger

    That’s one year.

    There was 10 years of this.

    The Tambellini Era was particularly bad.

    Mark Messier couldn’t leadership those players into a 25th place finish.

    I agree,
    I am not trying to blame that “other” group of players on individual level.

    I am more patience in the current change process than some here.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: I see you on this type of point a lot.The team was bad when these guys were the leaders.Fans were booing, throwing jerseys on the ice.That group could not get it done.

    That does not mean they were the problem.By moving on they may have;

    Grown up/taken their craft more serious/found a better role on the new team.

    When Shultz went to Pittsburgh, who did not think that Sid and that leadershipgroup would help Shultz become a better pro athlete.

    Just like Nurse playing with Larsson and Rattie playing with McDavid or Puljujarvi playing with Strome.

    Those ex Oilers were not the problem, but they were not the solution in Edmonton.

    No.

    It was the shitty players.

    The players you always name had on ice goal shares of playoff teams.

  81. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Throw all the cap space at one player, a sniper. Port, starboard, dosen’t matter, but it needs to be someone who can deposit the biscuit 30+ times. I’ll take my chances with everything else.
    What money? There is no money to throw.
    Also, to me, top 6 winger is the wrong position to throw that money at – talented young players on their ELC will be able to score 30 on McDavid’s wing – that is where we get our value contracts.

    Which talented young player have you in mind, JP? Elc is fading fast and I doubt he is a 30 goal man. yammo? Possibly, is he a goal scorer or play maker? I want to win now, get the dam sniper in the lineup, move a body to do this!

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Remember when it went
    Hemsky
    Eberle
    Yakupov

    And we were so concerned about which should play on the first line?

    hahahah.

    Good to see you Rom.

    Post more if the spirit moves you please.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: I agree,
    I am not trying to blame that “other” group of players on individual level.

    I am more patience in the current change process than some here.

    You say you aren’t trying to blame them, but then you blame them.

  84. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    It occurred to me that Koskinen is considered the 3rd best Finnish goaler by Finland, so he’s got that going for him.

    Absolutely, if he’s in the same conversation as Rinne and Rask.

  85. Justthestatsman says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    It occurred to me that Koskinen is considered the 3rd best Finnish goaler by Finland, so he’s got that going for him.

    Munny: Absolutely, if he’s in the same conversation as Rinne and Rask.

    ~oh yeah, well Rask lost his last game therefore he must stink~

  86. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You say you aren’t trying to blame them, but then you blame them.

    I don’t see or believe in hockey results at the individual level.

    I do see hockey and believe in team results.

    The leadership group disproportionately impacts the team result. So we talk about the leaders more.

    Do you see it differently?

  87. Wilde says:

    Brayden Point just split Chara-McAvoy for a ridiculous goal.

  88. Munny says:

    Justthestatsman:
    ~oh yeah, well Rask lost his last game therefore he must stink~

    He’ll be wanting his last goal against back too.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: I don’t see or believe in hockey results at the individual level.

    I do see hockey and believe in team results.

    The leadership group disproportionately impacts the team result.So we talk about the leaders more.

    Do you see it differently?

    Yes.

    If you have observed hockey for any time and attribute the results of the 4th line and 3rd pair to the 1st line and 1st pair then I have no idea what you are watching or how you process it.

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: I don’t see or believe in hockey results at the individual level.

    I do see hockey and believe in team results.

    The leadership group disproportionately impacts the team result.So we talk about the leaders more.

    Do you see it differently?

    Believing a player impacts results when they are not on the ice is the baffling.

  91. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes.

    If you have observed hockey for any time and contribute the results of the 4th line and 3rd pair to the 1st line and 1st pair then I have no idea what you are watching or how you process it.

    So you’re saying that the first line never plays with the third pairing… or the 3rd and 4th lines with the first pairing?

    I think I know what you’re saying but not sure this was the best way to express it.

    Also, Woogie’s point that you’re responding to is that the leaders have the most effect on results and so get more focus on their play. I’m not sure he’s wrong on that particular point.

    You both seem to be talking past each other somewhat.

  92. Munny says:

    Boston needed that goal so bad.

  93. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: Three years is not overnight.

    Schutlz, Petry, Hall, Eberle, etc. have shown elsewhere that they are not the problem.

    The Oilerskeep on giving the wrong coaches the extended opportunity.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: So you’re saying that the first line never plays with the third pairing… or the 3rd and 4th lines with the first pairing?

    I think I know what you’re saying but not sure this was the best way to express it.

    Also, Woogie’s point that you’re responding to is that the leaders have the most effect on results and so get more focus on their play. I’m not sure he’s wrong in that point.

    You both seem to be talking past each other somewhat.

    Here’s my point:

    To think that Jordan Eberle some influences or can influence how good Lennard Petrell and Ben Eager play hockey is absurd.

  95. pts2pndr says:

    I would agree however with the exception of Hall the others were more support players getting paid as core players. This still is not the fault of the players! Get good players! Keep good players! The worst coach the team ever had resulted in McDavid as our reward. This same coach however poisoned the management of the day on Hall which is a total shame, Hence we move on.

  96. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s my point:

    To think that Jordan Eberle some influences or can influence how good Lennard Petrell and Ben Eager play hockey is absurd.

    It’s Lennart Petrell, not ‘Lennard’. How the hell do you expect him to play well if you keep getting his name wrong??

  97. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Believing a player impacts results when they are not on the ice is the baffling.

    Are you saying when the player is not on the ice they don’t effect the play of the balance of the team?

    A team winning in this league is so much more than a bunch 45 second shifts for one player.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: So you’re saying that the first line never plays with the third pairing… or the 3rd and 4th lines with the first pairing?

    I think I know what you’re saying but not sure this was the best way to express it.

    Also, Woogie’s point that you’re responding to is that the leaders have the most effect on results and so get more focus on their play. I’m not sure he’s wrong on that particular point.

    You both seem to be talking past each other somewhat.

    More to your point, the 3rd and 4th lines do much, much better when with the best Dpair than otherwise.

    If you grind the data it’s very stark.

    The best players win their minutes and the worst don’t.

    This leads to the mantra “get good players and keep good players” so more often than the competition you have the best players on the ice/court/field.

    The best coaches in the history of sport have agreed on one thing.

    The best coach gets off the bus with the players.

  99. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    And I think you’re missing Woogie’s, which is far more general than what you are stating here.

  100. leadfarmer says:

    Watching these Lightning move the puck makes me go holy crap we have a long way to go to ice a truly competitive team. And yes that includes our whack a puck trip to the playoffs last year

  101. Wilde says:

    Woogie63: I don’t see or believe in hockey results at the individual level.

    I do see hockey and believe in team results.

    The leadership group disproportionately impacts the team result.So we talk about the leaders more.

    Do you see it differently?

    If we don’t believe in individual results, how do we determine who the leaders of the team are?

  102. Munny says:

    Gino just said “the Jets do monitor the energy level of their players.”

    Anyone have any idea how they’re doing this?

  103. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: More to your point, the 3rd and 4th lines do much, much better when with the best Dpair than otherwise.

    If you grind the data it’s very stark.

    The best players win their minutes and the worst don’t.

    This leads to the mantra “get good players and keep good players” so more often than the competition you have the best players on the ice/court/field.

    The best coaches in the history of sport have agreed on one thing.

    The best coach gets off the bus with the players.

    </

    Woodguy v2.0: More to your point, the 3rd and 4th lines do much, much better when with the best Dpair than otherwise.

    If you grind the data it’s very stark.

    The best players win their minutes and the worst don’t.

    This leads to the mantra “get good players and keep good players” so more often than the competition you have the best players on the ice/court/field.

    The best coaches in the history of sport have agreed on one thing.

    The best coach gets off the bus with the players.

    I like this point, you showed in space the value of the top 4 dman playing more a few years ago.

    I disagree that an “Eberle” doesn’t impact a “pluggers” .

    We all watched Derek Roy make that plugger Nail look look like a 2nd rounder.

  104. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The best coach gets off the bus with the players.

    Well it’s really boring sitting on a bus all by oneself. 😉

  105. Woogie63 says:

    Wilde: If we don’t believe in individual results, how do we determine who the leaders of the team are?

    Matt Hendricks is leader.

    If you have to ask the question, they are not a leader.

  106. Wilde says:

    Woogie63: Matt Hendricks is leader.

    If you have to ask the question, they are not a leader.

    Is Matt Hendricks a leader?

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If I were Chiarelli I’d go hard at Carolina and Buffalo. New owners, new GMs, players on the block or wanting out. They say they want to spend to the cap but I expect they also want short term success to pay for it.

    I think he could assemble a top 9 and top 4 that would allow for a gap in draft picks because of the age of the core, cap increases and contract lengths.

    I also think US teams will value US born players for marketing reasons, casual fans.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63,

    I like this point, you showed in space the value of the top 4 dman playing more a few years ago.

    I disagree that an “Eberle” doesn’t impact a “pluggers” .

    We all watched Derek Roy make that plugger Nail look look like a 2nd rounder.

    Derek Roy played 738 games in the NHL.and scored 524 points.

    To consider him a “plugged” isn’t a good look.

    Also,

    For the best players to raise the level of the worst, they actually need to be on the ice at the same time.

    The players I listed earlier didn’t play with good players.

    Not only that, but in the research the GMoney and I did for WoodMoney we found that poor players actually dragged down the results of good players more than the good players pulled up the results of bad players.

    We bin player results into 3 bins, Elite, Middle and Gritensity.

    The Gritensity players are such a drag on the Elite than when a Gritensity player plays with an Elite, we don’t bin that as “vs. Elite TOI” , but “vs. Middle TOI” becuase the results overall are that much poorer.

  109. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Roy was Eberle in my example the other guy was Eager 🙂

  110. Woogie63 says:

    Wilde: Is Matt Hendricks a leader?

    Clap clap clap

  111. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Ty Smith a quality fit for the Edmonton Oilers at No. 10 overall
    https://theathletic.com/342454/2018/05/04/lowetide-ty-smith-a-quality-fit-for-the-oilers-at-no-10-overall/

  112. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woogie63,

    I like this point, you showed in space the value of the top 4 dman playing more a few years ago.


    I disagree that an “Eberle” doesn’t impact a “pluggers” .

    We all watched Derek Roy make that plugger Nail look look like a 2nd rounder.

    Derek Roy played 738 games in the NHL.and scored 524 points.

    To consider him a “plugged” isn’t a good look.

    Also,

    For the best players to raise the level of the worst, they actually need to be on the ice at the same time.

    The players I listed earlier didn’t play with good players.

    Not only that, but in the research the GMoney and I did for WoodMoney we found that poor players actually dragged down the results of good players more than the good players pulled up the results of bad players.

    We bin player results into 3 bins, Elite, Middle and Gritensity.

    The Gritensity players are such a drag on the Elite than when a Gritensity player plays with an Elite, we don’t bin that as “vs. Elite TOI” , but “vs. Middle TOI” becuase the results overall are that much poorer.

    Woodguy,

    No offence but I think maybe you are misunderstanding the complex nature of the interactions between teammates whether they are on the ice together or not. In my research on Bob Gainey I have been looking at how the team’s other 9 forwards performed in games he played in and how the same 9 guys did in games in which Gainey did not play.

    You wouldn’t think it would make any difference. But his non linemate teammate forwards did far better in terms of both goals for and goals against when he was in the lineup (though not playing with them) than when he wasn’t in the lineup. It is almost a half goal a game on average less from the 1160 games he played to the 118 games he didn’t. I can’t say with certainty that it is significant because Gainey played in 91% of all games over those years and there a number of years he played every game.

    On the other hand it sure looks like he made his non linemate forward teammates better. In other words the Gainey effect reached beyond his ice time. I believe this was a quality of competition issue. And you would expect Connor McDavid to have a similar impact on quality of competition for non linemate teammate forwards. The difference is the bottom nine of the Oilers can’t exploit those softer minutes the way the top nine of Montreal could.

  113. VOR says:

    The question then becomes did the fact McDavid and Gainey were team leaders have any impact on their non linemate teammate forwards on ice performance?

  114. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If I were Chiarelli I’d go hard at Carolina and Buffalo. New owners, new GMs, players on the block or wanting out. They say they want to spend to the cap but I expect they also want short term success to pay for it.

    I think he could assemble a top 9 and top 4 that would allow for a gap in draft picks because of the age of the core, cap increases and contract lengths.

    I also think US teams will value US born players for marketing reasons, casual fans.

    Go hard at them with what exactly?

  115. VOR says:

    That is, does leadership matter to on ice performance, at least that of forwards who don’t actually play with the leader in question?

  116. Wilde says:

    Huh, I’m reading a CanucksArmy draft post and they have Lundeostrom #7.

    He’s got a GF% of 62 for a +15..7 GF%Rel in the SHL this year.

    I liked him earlier in the year to sneak into the top 10, but that was more based on point production.

    Was Swedishposter’s forward writeup on yesterday’s post or the day before that?

  117. VOR says:

    If leadership was a compounding factor in on ice performance then the leadership of the Oilers teams through the decade of darkness was especially culpable for team performance. Me personally, I think you can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. But I have been wrong before and will be again.

  118. rickithebear says:

    Kale Kessey’s 19 yr season even age NHLE
    11evg 11eva 22evp

    Tyler Benson,s 19yr season even age NHLE
    10evg 11eva 21evp

    Benson is a superstar!

  119. Professor Q says:

    rickithebear:
    Kale Kessey’s 19 yr season even age NHLE
    11evg 11eva 22evp

    Tyler Benson,s 19yr season even age NHLE
    10evg 11eva 21evp

    Benson is a superstar!

    Wasn’t Benson’s NHLE 29 Points in February? Surely it went up and not down throughout the rest of the season?

  120. VOR says:

    Professor Q: Wasn’t Benson’s NHLE 29 Points in February? Surely it went up and not down throughout the rest of the season?

    Benson ended the season with an NHlE of 32.51. Not great but not terrible.

  121. Melvis says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for all of your input. I’ll suggest a comparable in regard to the question.

    I had the great privilege of doing an after hours session at Sound City Studios – late ’74 sitting behind Jeff Porcaro’s drum kit.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sound_City_Studios

    That was the privilege – using his kit. He wasn’t in the room. His cartage guy came in, set up, and left. Porcaro wouldn’t show for another hour. Hoppy Hodges was the third drummer on hand that night for a couple tracks.(Buckingham/Nicks)

    So the asst. engineer was doing mike placements and levels and I was noodling aroundthe kit with the cans on my head. And then the tune I had to track fell into the phones.

    I can say with some certainty that Porcaro’s latent presence had a hell of a lot to do with excelling at that particular groove that night. Sixteenths on the the hi-hat over a cut time four. Basic, but It still knocks my dick in the dirt.

    Among many other tunes, the basic groove can be found here: 8:28 – A Clue. Same drum kit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jI9l5L7pST4

    “The question then becomes did the fact McDavid and Gainey were team leaders have any impact on their non linemate teammate forwards on ice performance?”

    Absolutely. And the experience continues to wend it’s way into my current work as a painter and visual artist.

  122. Biggus Dickus says:

    VOR:
    If leadership was a compounding factor in on ice performance then the leadership of the Oilers teams through the decade of darkness was especially culpable for team performance. Me personally, I think you can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. But I have been wrong before and will be again.

    I would think that leadership, like many things, would be a factor, but is probably an infinitesimally small one. I do think that due to the zero sum nature of ice time, the presence of McDavids improves team performance due to quality of competition.

  123. Melvis says:

    I’m reminded of Messier’s infintesimally small contribution, the well voiced guranteed win, and the called shot or shots prior to game 6 in ’94 as the Rangers were facing elimination. There’s opinion, there’s theory, and then there’s the incrontrovertible reality of some these “small contributions”.

  124. Ribs says:

    Harpers Hair: Go hard at them with what exactly?

    Hall for Eichel!!! *facepalm*

  125. Ribs says:

    Think Callahan would have a case for sexual misconduct against Marchand? Would it make the league actually do something about this nonsense?

  126. hunter1909 says:

    How’s everyone getting on with arguing about how to fix the Oilers?

    – Bandwagon Vegas fan

  127. rickithebear says:

    VOR: Benson ended the season with an NHlE of 32.51. Not great but not terrible.

    Draft year (17) players translate 50-75% of CHL
    Draft +1 (18) 40-50% of chl production.
    Draft +2 (19) 35-40% of chl production.
    Draft +3 (20) 32-35% of chl production.

    Kelsey got superior even production.
    Benson got PP time.

    A year in AHL will show us a continued measure of Benson.

    Just even

  128. rickithebear says:

    Ribs:
    Think Callahan would have a case for sexual misconduct against Marchand? Would it make the league actually do something about this nonsense?

    Filing a complaint with CRTC.
    Sportsnet showed a Sexual assault section 273 on TV.
    Big no no!

  129. hunter1909 says:

    rickithebear,

    What to you make of The Golden Knights? This must be one of the 1st times in history that a big league sports team has been created from such quality players. In the early expansions, teams were basically allowed to send dregs to expansion teams.

    Vegas remind me of the old time CCCP teams, with top to bottom throughout the entire lineup quality.

    Seeing Perron as an Oiler fan I understand that a team entirely comprised of players of Perron’s quality has got an outstanding chance to go far in the playoffs.

  130. Pandaup says:

    Having trailed in my position an individual who earned the Order of Canada, and a second who will merit the same, I can say without equivocation that those who exemplify sustained brilliance raise the game of all associated, whether or not they are “on the ice” . At the same time, it makes sense therefore, that mediocrity within a group can drive down group performance. These are the intangibles that confound analytics. As much as I believe in a data based approach, this basic reality needs to be acknowledged.

  131. Pandaup says:

    Put otherwise, and with apologies to Mr. Osmond, one bad apple can spoil a whole bunch. Girl.

  132. Ribs says:

    rickithebear: Filing a complaint with CRTC.
    Sportsnet showed a Sexual assault section 273 on TV.
    Big no no!

    Thumbs Up!

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner stopped 21 of 23 last night but Carter Hart was almost unbeatable as the Broncos dropped game 1, 2-1.

    Game 2 goes tonight.

  134. Professor Q says:

    Ribs:
    Think Callahan would have a case for sexual misconduct against Marchand? Would it make the league actually do something about this nonsense?

    Likely. But the NHL’s laws seem to be in an entirely different world than reality (assault, fighting, etc.) still engrossed in a misty veil of undefined and not really regulated culture, so who really knows?

    When Callahan brought up not even knowing about discipline for spitting, and how licking is worse than spitting, Marchand apparently just laughed and said “good for him” or something.

    I wonder if the media members were laughing along or not?

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR: Woodguy,

    No offence but I think maybe you are misunderstanding the complex nature of the interactions between teammates whether they are on the ice together or not. In my research on Bob Gainey I have been looking at how the team’s other 9 forwards performed in games he played in and how the same 9 guys did in games in which Gainey did not play.

    You wouldn’t think it would make any difference. But his non linemate teammate forwards did far better in terms of both goals for and goals against when he was in the lineup (though not playing with them) than when he wasn’t in the lineup. It is almost a half goal a game on average less from the 1160 games he played to the 118 games he didn’t. I can’t say with certainty that it is significant because Gainey played in 91% of all games over those years and there a number of years he played every game.

    On the other hand it sure looks like he made his non linemate forward teammates better. In other words the Gainey effect reached beyond his ice time. I believe this was a quality of competition issue. And you would expect Connor McDavid to have a similar impact on quality of competition for non linemate teammate forwards. The difference is the bottom nine of the Oilers can’t exploit those softer minutes the way the top nine of Montreal could.

    I get the QoC thing and it helps my point.

    Good players pushing the other players down the roster is a good thing.

    My point is that Taylor Hall winning his minutes against the toughest QoC is not the reason that Eric Belanger didn’t win his minutes vs softer comp.

    That is what Woogie was saying.

    It is completely and demonstrably wrong.

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Go hard at them with what exactly?

    Non core players and picks until they give up what is wanted. The Canes want to move Skinner and Faulk and can’t so far. To help them do that they have to pay too much.

    The owners say they’ll spend but I think for low revenue teams like the Canes and Buffalo there has to be tight oversight of the budget.

    I for once would like to see a deal where the Oilers took advantage of other teams under pressure and balance the roster. For me there is a small core and I would move any other player to achieve a better balance.

    Right now I would also spend picks because the core is young if I was able to bring back younger players that help now or high end picks. You can’t do this forever. The Reinhart deal didn’t work but it was because of such a monstrous miss on the target. It would look a lot different if he had been a RD better than Benning.

    I of course don’t know what the other guys want and are trying to do, just going by what we here from media sources.

  137. VOR says:

    rickithebear: Draft year (17) players translate 50-75% of CHL
    Draft +1 (18) 40-50% of chl production.
    Draft +2 (19) 35-40% of chl production.
    Draft +3 (20) 32-35% of chl production.

    Kelsey got superior even production.
    Benson got PP time.

    A year in AHL will show us a continued measure of Benson.

    Just even

    Actually Kale Kessy got 16 points in something like 43 games in 2011-2012 – he turned 19 and in December of 2011. Let’s use your multiplier and say he got 50% of that in the NHL that is about 15 points total NHLE. The next year Kessy ended the season on a tear. And on the power play where he scored some very Ryan Smyth goals.

    In 2016-2017 season, the year he turned 19 in March Benson had 43 points in 33 games. Which given that was draft +1 and your conversion then he had an NHLE of 57. Your own math damns you since Kessey can’t have more even strength points than he has total NHLE.

  138. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Non core players and picks until they give up what is wanted. The Canes want to move Skinner and Faulk and can’t so far. To help them do that they have to pay too much.

    The owners say they’ll spend but I think for low revenue teams like the Canes and Buffalo there has to be tight oversight of the budget.

    I for once would like to see a deal where the Oilers took advantage of other teams under pressure and balance the roster. For me there is a small core and I would move any other player to achieve a better balance.

    Right now I would also spend picks because the core is young if I was able to bring back younger players that help now or high end picks. You can’t do this forever. The Reinhart deal didn’t work but it was because of such a monstrous miss on the target. It would look a lot different if he had been a RD better than Benning.

    I of course don’t know what the other guys want and are trying to do, just going by what we here from media sources.

    One shouldn’t borrow from the future (i.e. draft picks, particularly the first two rounds) to pay for the sins of the present when one is one of the worst teams in the league. It just perpetuates the cycle of failure.

    There are exceptions, of course.

    When one is in a ditch, the way to get out is not to keep digging.

    Affordable future players are critical to the Oilers contending in the middle of the McDavid era. Those come from draft picks developed into players.

    There is no free lunch.

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