What do you want and when do you want it?

The 2017 entry draft had three specific themes for the Edmonton Oilers: Skill forwards, a trade up for a goalie they clearly valued, and less emphasis on defensemen. In both the 2015 and 2016 editions, the club drafted four blue, meaning a large group coming through the pipeline from 2017-2020 from those draft summers. Can we identify player style and positions that might be the focus at this year’s draft? Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: Even in a trying season, Adam Larsson delivered solid defense.
  • New Jonathan Willis: Edmonton can’t afford to enter ’18-19 with Kris Russell as top 4D.
  • New Ian Tulloch: The search for a right defence upgrade (Leafs, but fits Oil)
  • Lowetide: It was a tough season for Oscar Klefbom.
  • Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse delivered a strong season for the Oilers.
  • Scott Wheeler: Final Draft Rankings 2018.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

INVENTORY

  • Goalies are not a feature group in this draft.
  • Defense is a strong option at No. 10 overall. Edmonton has a deep pool of young blue (Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning) in the NHL and a large number (Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Filip Berglund, Dmitri Samorukov, others) of kids bubbling under. The team lacks a complete player who can do everything, but there’s quality and quantity when taken as a whole. The team doesn’t have to take a defenseman at No. 10 overall. Even if a righty blue who can move the puck is sitting there, that player won’t be able to help Edmonton in the fall (very small chance). However, bottom line: This is the team’s chance to fill a need at the position (RHD puck mover).
  • Center is an area of strength but the Oilers under McLellan have been collecting centers since he arrived, playing some on the wing. So, if there’s a center at No. 10, don’t be surprised if the Oilers grab him.
  • Wingers are an area of need and if one of the dynamic wingers fall, suspect the Oilers won’t hesitate to grab him.

PROJECTED OILERS LIST

I’ve been watching the Oilers draft forever but Keith Gretzky and Bob Green aren’t Kevin Prendergast and Stu MacGregor. Drafting Kailer Yamamoto represents a departure in thinking for the organization and so we could be in for another surprise this time. Here’s my guess for Edmonton’s top 10 (they are currently holding meetings on the subject via Bob Stauffer).

  1. LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). If there was a way, PC would move heaven and earth. Buffalo finally wins something. Dahlin is No. 1 on Edmonton’s list, they’ll never see him in an Oilers uniform.
  2. R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Major talent. I can see Edmonton trying to trade up for this player. He is as close to McDavid’s Kurri (he is ridiculously skilled and has the tools for a 200-foot game) as we’ve seen since 97’s draft day.
  3. L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). Rugged power winger with two-way skills. Edmonton values him highly based on their own modus operandi. Some concern possible over recent reports he will stay in college, but I bet you a 2-4 he’s inside their top 5.
  4. RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). Big numbers, intelligent two-way D. He is a good skater and has a big shot, plus Bouchard can find seams and passing lines and hit them on the fly consistently. I imagine they love his game.
  5. L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Size, shooter, he’s fast and might be a great fit for Edmonton. I think they would be less likely to trade up for him.
  6. RC Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Sensational shooter, he’s one dimensional based on reports. Phil Kessel had similar reports in his draft season.
  7. RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite)Brilliant puck mover, chaos defense. With the puck on his stick, Boqvist is exceptional, highly creative and a nightmare for opponents.
  8. LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). Fast as lightning defender, smooth as silk. I bet they would take him in a heartbeat at No. 10.
  9. LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Smart, very skilled and he’s 6.02, 190. Value spiking. I think the Oilers might take him if he’s there at No. 10.
  10. RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Two-way defenseman isn’t the dynamic offensive force they want but represents terrific value at No. 10 overall.

CONNOR MCDAVID AT THE WORLDS

There was a shortage of words to describe Connor McDavid in his rookie season, now it’s a real issue on its way to being a constitutional crisis. Jesus, Mary and Joseph what a hockey player.

Maybe the Oilers will announce the signing of both men on the same day. Skinner is playing the best hockey of his life and Viveiros is apparently drawing interest from 10 states and four provinces.

OILERS 2018 DRAFT

No one drafts for need, while everyone drafts for need. With that understood, I think the Oilers prospect chart could most use the following:

  • Complete forward: Svechnikov and possibly Kotkaniemi fit the bill, I like Farabee a lot in this category as well.
  • Complete defenseman: He is in the draft but will be gone when Edmonton makes the pick.
  • Two-way D: You can never have too many of these guys. Defensemen are always breaking down so you have to double up whenever possible.
  • Two-way F: I still don’t see a Pisani, although Benson might grow into the role.
  • Goalie: I like the idea of grabbing one per summer after the third round.

CURRENT PROSPECT DEPTH CHART

PERSONAL OPINION

One year beyond Keith Gretzky’s first draft with the Oilers and we’re talking positive about Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner, Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov and Ostap Safin. Hell, even Phil Kemp had a strong draft +1.

I would recommend giving this scouting staff a draft pick in each round, do that for about five years and you can turn this rig around. I don’t know how a general manager does that with his job on the line while facing a summer of substantial procurement, but that’s the play here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Hockey Helps the Homeless will be on the ice from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. with 19 teams, including 30 Oiler alumni and other pros, at the Terwillegar Rec Centre today. I’ll be there broadcasting live, the entire TSN1260 lineup will be out there all day. Much fun, many goals, insane lying about things that happened 30 years ago, and a wonderful cause proving these gentlemen have their hearts in the right place. Lansky will be along, I’ll also have an interview with Theo Fleury about an upcoming event you might be interested in. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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209 Responses to "What do you want and when do you want it?"

Newer Comments »
  1. 36 percent body fat says:

    I like one goalie per draft too, but it needs to be rotated between Europe and CHL. Again no Q.

    Third round tops for the CHL goalie, and late round the next year for Europe. This way it staggers your goalis so there is playing time in AHL and the top spot in ECHL.

    Still perplexing how Svoboda was not signed by the oilers.

  2. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Thanks LT for another fine post. Great way to wind down after a 13hr night shift.

    I always come here for the blog post, and stay for the comments. Looking forward to reading everyone’s thoughts overnight.

    If we could trade down for picks and bonafide players + prospects to help now, a la VOR’s suggestion, I’d love to see it happen. If they make the pick at 10 it looks like we gain a quality prospect.

  3. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    36 percent body fat,

    Did he want to sign with us? Without knowing it’s hard to say either way if it was a failure by management or otherwise.

  4. anjinsan says:

    You gotta love what Cheveldayoff has done GMing the Jets.
    He had a plan. He executed accordingly.
    He was not impulsive. He did not flail. He did not overpay. He did not force players into the lineup too early.

    Drafting: superb.
    Contracting/negotiating: Scheifele for 6.125/8 v Draisaitl 8.5/8
    Managing contrary young-uns: Sent Kane away because he was a problem, but was the parent in the room with Trouba.
    Astute trade: Stastny and did not overpay.
    Managing development: Sent Kyle Connor down until Connor was ready. Gave Hellebuyck minutes so he could fail, learn, and develop.
    Team vision: Fast and skilled with adequate size, leadership, and D.
    One could go on, but that’s what competence looks like.

    Jets v Tampa in the finals. Damned if I know who wins but that is a very exciting finals!

  5. bcoil says:

    Off topic but I read that Charlie Huddy’s contract is up after this year in Winnipeg .Could anyone think of a better coach for this defence core .. We could dream I guess. This would be one of the old Oilers that would actually bring something to the table

  6. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    anjinsan,

    Scheifle broke out after signing his extension.

    Many were loudly calling for his head due to lack of trades and no playoffs or playoff wins.

    Now he’s panned as a genius.

    Don’t get me wrong. I like what he’s done. The Kane trade was a prime example… Kane reportedly asked for a trade every summer after relocation from Atlanta but Chevy waited for the right deal. And sent him him the only place worse than Winnipeg… Buffalo lol.

  7. Jaxon says:

    I’ve been looking into Kravtsov and I would be happy to see the Oilers pick him at #10. His KHL playoffs were amazing. Highest scoring forward under 24. His regular season looks less so, but keep in mind he was getting just over 5 minutes of ice time per game. KHL is notoriously hard on young, skilled players. His 1.97 5-on5 Primary Pts per 60 put him in very elite territory. Mind you, that would mostly be against other 4th liners, but a KHL 4th liner is still probably better than most OHL 1st liners. If you adjust for age and adjust his time to just above 14 minutes (Median TOI for top 6 fwd), you get an NHLe of 45.86, outpacing everyone in the draft, including Svechnikov. He’s getting comparisons to Kuznetsov.

    “A big, skilled winger that can play up and down the lineup and provide scoring in a number of roles. He brings grit and physical size, but could be more assertive in throwing his weight around more. Displays excellent speed on the rush and in zone entry, but could backcheck quicker. Plays well in his own end and takes away lanes. Very good hands and awareness. Kravtsov has the potential to develop into a staple top six forward that can produce at the next level.”

  8. jtblack says:

    “I would recommend giving this scouting staff a draft pick in each round, do that for about five years and you can turn this rig around.”

    +1

    Oilers have a good base of talent. They need to add to the Top layer, fill in the 2nd and 3rd layers; That only happens thru draft + develop.

    WPG had 3 players on ELC’s score 29+ Goals.
    LAINE – 44
    CONNOR – 31
    EHLERS – 29

    EDM had one 29 Goal Scorer (Super Nova).

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    In the last off-season, once it was apparent where our cap structure was going, it became clear that we were going to be in a very tight cap crunch with our star player contracts (McDavid, Drai, Nuge) and some bloated contracts that are likely to be under-performed (Russell, Lucic).

    I formulated the opinion that the way forward to consistent contender status was going to be prospect depth, development and graduation – young players coming in to replace the “aging veterans” and providing value contracts – performance that outperforms their cap hit.

    The problem was that the plan was to contend this year and to improve the team around the deadline by sending out futures to plug any holes. I had expressed my concern that our prospect pool was already shallow and becoming buyers at the deadline would further deplete it and it could hurt the future.

    As it turns out, we weren’t buyers and, while this is unfortunate, the silver lining is we didn’t have to give up future for immediate and short term fixes and deplete our prospect pool.

    Nothing has changed. We still need to have value contracts in the future in order to complete and we still need to accumulate depth in our prospect pool

    Make the pick at 10 and lets move on.

  10. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jaxon,

    Slepyshev was 1OV in the KHL draft and we got him for a 3rd rounder. Can we not do that again? Or is Kravtsov that highly regarded?

  11. Bling says:

    Jaxon:
    I’ve been looking into Kravtsov and I would be happy to see the Oilers pick him at #10. His KHL playoffs were amazing. Highest scoring forward under 24. His regular season looks less so, but keep in mind he was getting just over 5 minutes of ice time per game. KHL is notoriously hard on young, skilled players. His 1.97 5-on5 Primary Pts per 60 put him in very elite territory. Mind you, that would mostly be against other 4th liners, but a KHL 4th liner is still probably better than most OHL 1st liners.If you adjust for age and adjust his time to just above 14 minutes (Median TOI for top 6 fwd), you get an NHLe of 45.86, outpacing everyone in the draft, including Svechnikov. He’s getting comparisons to Kuznetsov.

    “A big, skilled winger that can play up and down the lineup and provide scoring in a number of roles. He brings grit and physical size, but could be more assertive in throwing his weight around more. Displays excellent speed on the rush and in zone entry, but could backcheck quicker. Plays well in his own end and takes away lanes. Very good hands and awareness. Kravtsov has the potential to develop into a staple top six forward that can produce at the next level.”

    KHL is exactly where PC should be looking to plug holes.

    Panairen and Dadonov are major top 6 success stories. There must be some good D swimming around there as well.

  12. dustrock says:

    As I posted on twitter last night, the Oilers would have put Scheifele on their roster for opening night, it would have been too soon, he would have been as a bust, and they would have traded him for a 3rd after 3 years.

    Winnipeg has developed in exactly the opposite way to Edmonton, and they deserve all of their kudos. They’ll be good for years.

    We were one of the worst teams in the league with the best player in the league we had the blind fortune to draft.

  13. dustrock says:

    Jaxon:
    I’ve been looking into Kravtsov and I would be happy to see the Oilers pick him at #10. His KHL playoffs were amazing. Highest scoring forward under 24. His regular season looks less so, but keep in mind he was getting just over 5 minutes of ice time per game. KHL is notoriously hard on young, skilled players. His 1.97 5-on5 Primary Pts per 60 put him in very elite territory. Mind you, that would mostly be against other 4th liners, but a KHL 4th liner is still probably better than most OHL 1st liners.If you adjust for age and adjust his time to just above 14 minutes (Median TOI for top 6 fwd), you get an NHLe of 45.86, outpacing everyone in the draft, including Svechnikov. He’s getting comparisons to Kuznetsov.

    “A big, skilled winger that can play up and down the lineup and provide scoring in a number of roles. He brings grit and physical size, but could be more assertive in throwing his weight around more. Displays excellent speed on the rush and in zone entry, but could backcheck quicker. Plays well in his own end and takes away lanes. Very good hands and awareness. Kravtsov has the potential to develop into a staple top six forward that can produce at the next level.”

    Kravstov would be a decent pick at #10. Just wonder if the Oilers shy away from Russians given their track record here.

    Even Kotkaniemi I wonder if they hesitate, when looking at the difficulties Puljujarvi has faced.

    LT I’m also shocked you don’t think the Oilers have Ty Smith, a WHL boy who plays with somebody they already drafted, in their top 10.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – that’s a good way of looking at it. LT and many believe that Chia will not show the same restraint this year as last: as his job is on the line, and he will sacrifice the long-term to save his job by trading the pick for immediate help. We’ll see…

    – It will be interesting in Leaf land this year. You have Babcock, the most powerful coach in the league, in terms of rep, salary and term, and who has been involved in psuduo-GM’ing as well

    – With a new young GM, the risk is that Babcock bosses him around, and gets what he wants.

    – To the extent Lou as GM was a counter-balance to Babcock, this isn’t there anymore.

    – Ceding even more power to the coach: it will be interesting to see how the Leaf’s do next year…

  15. who says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    anjinsan,

    Scheifle broke out after signing his extension.

    Many were loudly calling for his head due to lack of trades and no playoffs or playoff wins.

    Now he’s panned as a genius.

    Don’t get me wrong. I like what he’s done. The Kane trade was a prime example… Kane reportedly asked for a trade every summer after relocation from Atlanta but Chevy waited for the right deal. And sent him him the only place worse than Winnipeg… Buffalo lol.

    The fact that people were calling for his head the last couple years simply illustrates how fickle and downright stupid some fans can be.
    Chevy didn’t make trades just for the sake of making trades. He just kept drafting and developing and waiting for all that young talent to mature.
    It would take the Oilers at least 3 more drafts to acquire the amount of young talent the Jets have. But if they follow the same blueprint they would finally have the cheap young depth needed to support a Mcdavid and Draisatll led team. It sounds like a long time but if Chia had kept all his picks and not signed the big name free agent (Lucic) we would be there already.
    I wonder how many Oiler fans have that kind of patience? 10%? I know Chia doesn’t!

  16. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – that’s a good way of looking at it.LT and many believe that Chia will not show the same restraint this year as last: as his job is on the line, and he will sacrifice the long-term to save his job by trading the pick for immediate help.We’ll see…

    – It will be interesting in Leaf land this year.You have Babcock, the most powerful coach in the league, in terms of rep, salary and term, and who has been involved in psuduo-GM’ing as well

    – With a new young GM, the risk is that Babcock bosses him around, and gets what he wants.

    – To the extent Lou as GM was a counter-balance to Babcock, this isn’t there anymore.

    – Ceding even more power to the coach: it will be interesting to see how the Leaf’s do next year…

    Shanahan is still there. Dubas gained experience before getting the job. And Mark Hunter is no shrinking violet. And Lamorello, for now, is still in a consultant role (like Scotty in Chicago).

    Babcock is just one of many strong-minded people. Not much group think in the Toronto organization, unlike the OBC in Edmonton. And well, Babcock knows that Dubas has his guys, Keefe and DJ Smith in prime coaching roles in the organization developing, ready and waiting.

  17. ntrprtr says:

    Question… would Carolina trade the second overall pick (Svechnikov) straight across for Leon Draisaitl? Would you?

  18. Rafa Nadal says:

    Kinda stings watching Winnipeg do so well in the playoffs this year after their GM largely sat on his hands for most of his tenure. A few astute trades and excellent drafting and they’re now one of the cup favourites. I can’t help but think we could be in a similar position if we hadn’t given away Hall, Eberle and the #16 and #33 picks for pennies on the dollar or handed out albatross contracts to Lucic and Russell. Man.

  19. godot10 says:

    ntrprtr:
    Question… would Carolina trade the second overall pick (Svechnikov) straight across for Leon Draisaitl? Would you?

    Nugent-Hopkins is a better winger for McDavid than Svechnikov. So no.

    McDavid also might ask to be traded if one reset the rebuild by trading Draisaitl. The Oilers are just a good coach and a bit of smart GM’ing away from being a good team. Though Lucic and Russell mean that contending will be hard. The Oilers’s short term fate is dependent on the health of Sekera’s knee.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10: Shanahan is still there.Dubas gained experience before getting the job.And Mark Hunter is no shrinking violet.And Lamorello, for now, is still in a consultant role (like Scotty in Chicago).

    Babcock is just one of many strong-minded people.Not much group think in the Toronto organization, unlike the OBC in Edmonton.And well, Babcock knows that Dubas has his guys, Keefe and DJ Smith in prime coaching roles in the organization developing, ready and waiting.

    – I don’t disagree with this assessment. But the dynamics change: i could paint a scenario that it blows up: Shanny pokes his nose in more, Babcock pokes his nose in more, Dubas, as the youngest and least-seasoned doesn’t get listened too. What was successful before: defined roles for for everyone,this will have to be re-established.

    – It is depressing though: you look at the acumen and success assembled at the Leafs and contrast it with what we have: awful.

    – Just like on the ice, you need to get good players: same for management. So many people in the Oil would not be able to find roles in other teams at the same level: just like for years we had many hockey players who proved they would not be able to play in the league elsewhere

  21. Westchester Oil says:

    I absolutely love the Stuart Skinner quote. Shows an immense amount of gratitude and humility for a teenager. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

  22. godot10 says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Kinda stings watching Winnipeg do so well in the playoffs this year after their GM largely sat on his hands for most of his tenure. A few astute trades and excellent drafting and they’re now one of the cup favourites. I can’t help but think we could be in a similar position if we hadn’t given away Hall, Eberle and the #16 and #33 picks for pennies on the dollar orhanded out albatross contracts to Lucic and Russell. Man.

    Yep

    Nugent-Hopkins McDavid, XXX
    Hall, Draisaitl, XXX
    XXX, XXX, Eberle
    4th lines are easy for every but Chiarelli who pays 4th line players 3rd line money

    Klefbom XXX
    Nurse XXX
    XXX Schultz

    XXX

    #16 and #33 OV in 2015 draft (something like Kyle Connor and Brandon Carlo) so two of those XX’s would be filled.

    This is what Chiarelli and McLellan were handed and they effed it up.

    The Oilers are looking for a winger and a offensive right D…they won’t do as well as Hart candidate Taylor Hall and two-time Stanley Cup champion Justin Schultz.

  23. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Westchester Oil:
    I absolutely love the Stuart Skinner quote. Shows an immense amount of gratitude and humility for a teenager. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

    Speaks to the influence a coach can have on a player/players imo

  24. hunter1909 says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Kinda stings watching Winnipeg do so well in the playoffs this year after their GM largely sat on his hands for most of his tenure. A few astute trades and excellent drafting and they’re now one of the cup favourites. I can’t help but think we could be in a similar position if we hadn’t given away Hall, Eberle and the #16 and #33 picks for pennies on the dollar orhanded out albatross contracts to Lucic and Russell. Man.

    Truth.

    One of the first things I learned about hockey off the ice was the difference between bad teams and good teams with the way they developed or failed to develop their players.

    The Oilers, are a horrendously bad team. Historically terrible. Therefore, someone please explain exactly how this collection of imbeciles is putting together a cup winning team?

  25. jtblack says:

    ntrprtr:
    Question… would Carolina trade the second overall pick (Svechnikov) straight across for Leon Draisaitl? Would you?

    CAROLINA would NOT. They are potentially getting a 30 – 40 Goal scorer for 3 years at $900k (plus bonus).
    cant pass that up. EVEN for a player like Leon

  26. PennersPancakes says:

    godot10,

    I wont argue management was handed a golden ticket and they somehow messed it up. Completely true in my opinion and they should be embarrassed. Saying Justin Schultz would be the solution to our problems is revisionist history though.

    I don’t think anyone argued against the Schultz trade or at least that he had to go (value on the pick coming back is up to interpretation). There was no way he was going to perform at his current level while still playing in Edmonton. People (right or wrong) were very happy to see him move on. Would I like him on the team now? Yeah of course but simply saying we shouldn’t have traded him is changing/ignoring what happened.

  27. Jaxon says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jaxon,

    Slepyshev was 1OV in the KHL draft and we got him for a 3rd rounder. Can we not do that again? Or is Kravtsov that highly regarded?

    He’s highly regarded enough to go in the first round maybe around #20 so he won’t be there by the time Edmonton picks again. He’s ranked #3 International and I’ve seen him ranked as high as #16 on a few lists. I think the Russian factor is scaring many away. He could have a similar trajectory to Kuznetsov. He is very talented.

  28. Side says:

    PennersPancakes:
    godot10,

    I wont argue management was handed a golden ticket and they somehow messed it up. Completely true in my opinion and they should be embarrassed. Saying Justin Schultz would be the solution to our problems is revisionist history though.

    I don’t think anyone argued against the Schultz trade or at least that he had to go (value on the pick coming back is up to interpretation). There was no way he was going to perform at his current level while still playing in Edmonton. People (right or wrong) were very happy to see him move on. Would I like him on the team now? Yeah of course but simply saying we shouldn’t have traded him is changing/ignoring what happened.

    But it’s the coaches fault for not “unlocking” Schultz! /sarcasm

  29. jtblack says:

    PennersPancakes:
    godot10,

    I wont argue management was handed a golden ticket and they somehow messed it up. Completely true in my opinion and they should be embarrassed. Saying Justin Schultz would be the solution to our problems is revisionist history though.

    I don’t think anyone argued against the Schultz trade or at least that he had to go (value on the pick coming back is up to interpretation). There was no way he was going to perform at his current level while still playing in Edmonton. People (right or wrong) were very happy to see him move on. Would I like him on the team now? Yeah of course but simply saying we shouldn’t have traded him is changing/ignoring what happened.

    +1. Nobody is asking for Yakupov back.

    Some guys had to go. And its great if they have done well elsewhere.

    Again the Problem is not trading players or picks. The problem is PC’s inability to get similiar value back.

    Nashville traded their Captain(Weber), Blue chip D man (Jones) & other picks / prospects (Turris). Poile has got back “similiar” value in thise trades and Nashville is one of the best teams in the League.

    If PC received “similiar” returns on the Hall, #16/#33 & Eberle deals EDM would be much better off – but he didnt Sso we are 2 years behind AGAIN

  30. jtblack says:

    Westchester Oil:
    I absolutely love the Stuart Skinner quote. Shows an immense amount of gratitude and humility for a teenager. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

    A lot of Oilers have said the same thing about TMac …… oh wait, No they haven’t.

  31. godot10 says:

    PennersPancakes:
    godot10,

    I wont argue management was handed a golden ticket and they somehow messed it up. Completely true in my opinion and they should be embarrassed. Saying Justin Schultz would be the solution to our problems is revisionist history though.

    I don’t think anyone argued against the Schultz trade or at least that he had to go (value on the pick coming back is up to interpretation). There was no way he was going to perform at his current level while still playing in Edmonton. People (right or wrong) were very happy to see him move on. Would I like him on the team now? Yeah of course but simply saying we shouldn’t have traded him is changing/ignoring what happened.

    Justin Schultz is exactly what the Oilers are currently looking for in terms of defensemen.

    McLellan didn’t put in the effort to coach him. All Schultz needed was coaching. And a GM to stand up and tell the fans that we are going to coach this player.

  32. Andy Dufresne says:

    New Ian Tulloch: The search for a right defence upgrade (Leafs, but fits Oil)

    Incredible article over at The Athletic on the POSSIBLE Defense options out there for Toronto and the Oilers.

    LONG list.

    Gives a realistic view of more than a dozen solid options….pros and cons.

    And gives a realistic view of the cost of most of these options and why.

  33. Fuge Udvar says:

    I would like to see them trade the 10OV down. Hopefully a GM falls in love with one of the top Cs in the draft and is willing to pay to move up.

    10OV for 25OV (PIT’s pick owned by OTT) + C. White + R. Dzingle

    Ottawa just got rid of Turris and could be eyeing up one of those Cs as their long term 2C. Dzingle had 24 goals this year, plays RW(left shot) and only has a cap bit of 1.8M for next year. White is 21 scored .57ppg in the AHL and .29ppg in the NHL. Decent numbers but not too end. There should still be lots of talent in the draft at 25 (Bode Wilde fills a need) or see who falls in the draft.

  34. Rafa Nadal says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    I would like to see them trade the 10OV down. Hopefully a GM falls in love with one of the top Cs in the draft and is willing to pay to move up.

    10OV for 25OV (PIT’s pick owned by OTT) + C. White + R. Dzingle

    Ottawa just got rid of Turris and could be eyeing up one of those Cs as their long term 2C. Dzingle had 24 goals this year, plays RW(left shot) and only has a cap bit of 1.8M for next year. White is 21 scored .57ppg in the AHL and .29ppg in the NHL. Decent numbers but not too end. There should still be lots of talent in the draft at 25 (Bode Wilde fills a need) or see who falls in the draft.

    No thanks. This team needs to make the pick at #10 and they have to get it right.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chevy’s best moves were not moving out his good young players to plug holes.

    The Tambellini gambit.

    He’s far from perfect though.

    Steve Mason was one of the weaker FA goalies last year and he gave him $4.1 x 2. A move that many of us derided at the time.

    He also gave Kulikov $4.3MM x 3 years with a NTC and Kulikov is years away from his last effective year. He was 3rd pair unless there were injuries and even Morrow ate his lunch.

    Chevy has done some good things, but his FA evaluation is pretty bad.

  36. commonfan29 says:

    jtblack: +1. Nobody is asking for Yakupov back.

    I am 100% asking for Yakupov back.

  37. russ99 says:

    The Oilers are just a good coach and a bit of smart GM’ing away from being a good team.

    Even if we are set with defense and keep the pick, we have gaping holes at wings, no NHL players who can fill two-way and PK roles and no sure things to fill these spots with.

    Keeping Strome, Caggiula and Benning and filling in holes with youth makes us miss the playoffs next year.

    Something has to give, and GM/coaching won’t fix it, there’s just not enough NHL talent on the roster.

  38. Yeti says:

    godot10: Justin Schultz is exactly what the Oilers are currently looking for in terms of defensemen.

    McLellan didn’t put in the effort to coach him.All Schultz needed was coaching.And a GM to stand up and tell the fans that we are going to coach this player.

    Oh, come on. There are many (many!!) reasons to critique the management and coaching without making up spurious insinuations. You have no idea whether McLellan put effort into coaching Schultz. You have no idea if perhaps Schultz wasn’t too open to the coaching message before the trade. More importantly, Schultz found a very different and heavily sheltered setup in which there were low expectations and heavy-lifters ahead of him at RD. Edmonton couldn’t (and probably still couldn’t) offer him that.

  39. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Why is it sacrilege for PC to trade a pick but genius for Chevy to trade a first and more for a rental? Or Yzerman to trade his?

    Argue incompetence about th Oilers, but picks and players get traded and it makes teams better when done right.

  40. Side says:

    Yeti: Oh, come on. There are many (many!!) reasons to critique the management and coaching without making up spurious insinuations. You have no idea whether McLellan put effort into coaching Schultz. You have no idea if perhaps Schultz wasn’t too open to the coaching message before the trade. More importantly, Schultz found a very different and heavily sheltered setup in which there were low expectations and heavy-lifters ahead of him at RD. Edmonton couldn’t (and probably still couldn’t) offer him that.

    I have no clue how people don’t see this. The only way to save Schultz was to shelter him and give him support. None of which the Oilers had because they were pretty much icing an AHL quality Defense with a GM who put ‘Norris winner’ expectations on Schultz’ shoulders.

    Some people just like to make up reasons to hate Oilers management.

  41. dustrock says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Why is it sacrilege for PC to trade a pick but genius for Chevy to trade a first and more for a rental? Or Yzerman to trade his?

    Argue incompetence about th Oilers, but picks and players get traded and it makes teams better when done right.

    Because these teams have prospect cupboards that are overflowing and they might see their window now this year.

    Chevy screwed up the goaltending situation for years and I think that hurt the team but he played his prospects exactly right and was able to keep Big Buff and his other vets around.

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Nugent-Hopkins is a better winger for McDavid than Svechnikov.So no.

    McDavid also might ask to be traded if one reset the rebuild by trading Draisaitl. The Oilers are just a good coach and a bit of smart GM’ing away from being a good team. Though Lucic and Russell mean that contending will be hard.The Oilers’s short term fate is dependent on the health of Sekera’s knee.

    Do I remember correctly that you were one who doubted Connor in his draft year?

    Svechnikov offensively is going to blow Nuge out of the water and likely out score Drai, Leon maybe carrying more load as a centre.

    Svechnikov’s junior numbers are historic in the best junior league.

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Rafa Nadal: No thanks. This team needs to make the pick at #10 and they have to get it right.

    – The strategy that Fudge is suggesting makes sense. Trade down from 10 to lower in first round, and get a good pick and a roster player.

    – In reality though, I just don’t think teams do this kind of trade.

  44. Rondo says:

    Fire Peter Chiarelli and hire Mark Hunter.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    I’ve been looking into Kravtsov and I would be happy to see the Oilers pick him at #10. His KHL playoffs were amazing. Highest scoring forward under 24. His regular season looks less so, but keep in mind he was getting just over 5 minutes of ice time per game. KHL is notoriously hard on young, skilled players. His 1.97 5-on5 Primary Pts per 60 put him in very elite territory. Mind you, that would mostly be against other 4th liners, but a KHL 4th liner is still probably better than most OHL 1st liners.If you adjust for age and adjust his time to just above 14 minutes (Median TOI for top 6 fwd), you get an NHLe of 45.86, outpacing everyone in the draft, including Svechnikov. He’s getting comparisons to Kuznetsov.

    “A big, skilled winger that can play up and down the lineup and provide scoring in a number of roles. He brings grit and physical size, but could be more assertive in throwing his weight around more. Displays excellent speed on the rush and in zone entry, but could backcheck quicker. Plays well in his own end and takes away lanes. Very good hands and awareness. Kravtsov has the potential to develop into a staple top six forward that can produce at the next level.”

    He’s also leading the Russian squad at the WHC right now, too: 4, 4-2-6 +6. Wheeler’s list (the best one I’ve seen so far) has him at #15… man, I’d love to have two picks in the 20’s this year, guys like Kravtsov and Merkley could easily still be available there. I wonder what it would take to get the two NYR late firsts?

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    dustrock: Because these teams have prospect cupboards that are overflowing and they might see their window now this year.

    Chevy screwed up the goaltending situation for years and I think that hurt the team but he played his prospects exactly right and was able to keep Big Buff and his other vets around.

    The cap will catch them soon enough. Lots of fans jump on the bandwagon of whomever is successful and they are genius and everyone else troglodytes.

    Lombardi, Bowman, Rutherford, and now former bums and widely panned McPhee and Chevy are brilliant.

    Winnipeg will do ok for a while, a few of their prospects will be better than average, like with most teams. And likely their goalie will regress and their aging injury prone D will let them down, and the cap will lose them forwards.

    Elite talent is usually what drives Cups IMO, and enough luck, and the GM finding enough support. I see the Oilers with the best chance at repeating of the teams with top talent.

    Keep the pick, unless you can get one of the top 2 picks, and if so get for it, those 2 kids will be worth it.

  47. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Why is it sacrilege for PC to trade a pick but genius for Chevy to trade a first and more for a rental? Or Yzerman to trade his?

    Argue incompetence about th Oilers, but picks and players get traded and it makes teams better when done right.

    Winnipeg and Tampa are cup contenders. The Oilers are an NHL bottom feeder again. Bottom feeders should keep their picks. Contenders can make a move for the short term to try to get themselves over the top.

    Plus, Winnipeg and Tampa have absolutely loaded farm system. The Oilers farm system is a desert.

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Rondo:
    Fire Peter Chiarelli and hire Mark Hunter.

    – Keep Chia, hire Hunter, fire MacT/Howson/Sutter/Carriere, etc

    – Get good management, keep good management…

    – Also Casey: gone: interesting times in Raptorland. I hope they pick Stackhouse

  49. jtblack says:

    IMHO, GOod teams hit on their High picks but just as importantly they have quality roster players who were taken after the 1st round This has been a major problen for Edm in the last decade. Our current crop of prospects chosen Round 2 – 6, is the best we have had. Skinner, Bear, Jones, Benson etc etc look like some will play and some will play a key role.

    Looking at WPG, they have nailed their 1st round selections and added 1 roster player from rounds 2 – 6 each year.

    2011 – SCHEIFLE, LOWRY
    2012 – TROUBA, HELLYBUCK
    2013 – MORRISEY, COPP
    2014 – EHLERS,
    2015 – CONNOR, ROSLOVIC
    2016 – LAINE (STANLEY procuring)

    Well done in draft & develop. *Clap Clap*

  50. godot10 says:

    The Oilers still don’t have a coach in the organisation to replace McLellan if things go south next season.

    Toronto has Babcock coaching, but they have the bullpen ready with Keefe and DJ Smith.

    McLellan and Chiarelli have been here three years, and they have developed no coaching options. McLellan is rather Machiavellian in that he’s managed to make sure that there were and still are no alternatives to him.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: The fact that people were calling for his head the last couple years simply illustrates how fickle and downright stupid some fans can be.
    Chevy didn’t make trades just for the sake of making trades. He just kept drafting and developing and waiting for all that young talent to mature.
    It would take the Oilers at least 3 more drafts to acquirethe amount of young talent the Jets have. But if they follow the same blueprint they would finally have the cheap young depth needed to support a Mcdavid and Draisatll led team. It sounds like a long time but if Chia had kept all his picks and not signed the big name free agent(Lucic) we would be there already.
    I wonder how many Oiler fans have that kind of patience? 10%? I know Chia doesn’t!

    Can we attribute what the Jets have done to a philosophy because of how we view their actions? In the same way we guess about what the Oilers motives are?

    Maybe the draft and wait philosophy had to do with having no cash, so no other options.

  52. Bank Shot says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers still don’t have a coach in the organisation to replace McLellan if things go south next season.

    Toronto has Babcock coaching, but they have the bullpen ready with Keefe and DJ Smith.

    McLellan and Chiarelli have been here three years, and they have developed no coaching options. McLellan is rather Machiavellian in that he’s managed to make sure that there were and still are no alternatives to him.

    Does it really matter?

    Coaches are the easiest of talent to acquire. Way more good coaches than teams.

    Darryl Sutter for instance is just sitting there on his ranch.

  53. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: CAROLINA would NOT.They are potentially getting a 30 – 40 Goal scorer for 3 years at $900k (plus bonus).
    cant pass that up. EVEN for a player like Leon

    Disagree. They’re starved for a 1C, and Leon is a sure thing. As highly as you and I think of Svechnikov, there’s still some risk there – remember that Yakopov and Dylan Strome tore up the CHL and posted stupendous numbers in their draft years too.

    Dylan Strome, 6’3, C, OHL, draft-1: 68, 45-84-129 1.90p/g
    Hlinka Memorial 5, 5-1-6

    Nail Yakupov, 5’11, W, OHL, draft-1: 65, 49-52-101 1.55p/g
    draft year: 42, 31-38-69 1.64p/g

    Evgeny Svechnikov, 6’2, W, QMJHL, draft: 55, 32-46-78 1.41p/g

    Andrei Svechnikov, 6’2, W, OHL, draft: 44, 40-32-72 1.64p/g

    I’m not suggesting that Svechnikov will be a bust, just that there is very real risk in valuing an unproven asset over a proven one.

  54. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers still don’t have a coach in the organisation to replace McLellan if things go south next season.

    Toronto has Babcock coaching, but they have the bullpen ready with Keefe and DJ Smith.

    McLellan and Chiarelli have been here three years, and they have developed no coaching options. McLellan is rather Machiavellian in that he’s managed to make sure that there were and still are no alternatives to him.

    – Coach is done in 25 games if they aren’t well above .500: he knows it, the players know it, the GM knows it, the new coaches on staff will know it

    – Coach is done if they don’t look good in the playoffs either (not sure what that has to be in terms of results: 2nd round only, and I suspect they move on)

  55. Alpine says:

    I think one less talked about item that’s helped the Jets in a huge way is just simply having really good veterans to go with their core. Wheeler, Buff, and Little could have been traded a while ago for futures or to ‘get younger’. Winnipeg has never merely given away good players like a certain franchise we know.

  56. ntrprtr says:

    godot10,

    I think you have to give McDavid more credit than that. I believe he is too much a professional and not nearly selfish enough as a player to ask for a trade just because Leon is gone. Plus in Svechnikov McDavid would be getting an NHL ready, cost controlled, true sniper on his wing and with the 5million+ dollars that would be saved by trading the 8.5million contract you could go out and get a good to very good puck moving dman that could hit McDavid with breakout passes all night long. Plus the Oilers would retain their #10 pick thus keeping their prospect pool stocked. With the McClell-a-blender the Oilers could still reunite McNuge as they see fit, which, I agree, really is magic and fun to watch.

  57. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot: Does it really matter?

    Coaches are the easiest of talent to acquire. Way more good coaches than teams.

    Darryl Sutter for instance is just sitting there on his ranch.

    We disagree. Actually good coaches are fairly rare. Mediocre coaches are a dime a dozen.

  58. Alpine says:

    ntrprtr:
    godot10,

    I think you have to give McDavid more credit than that. I believe he is too much a professional and not nearly selfish enough as a player to ask for a trade just because Leon is gone. Plus in Svechnikov McDavid would be getting an NHL ready, cost controlled, true sniper on his wing and with the 5million+ dollars that would be saved by trading the 8.5million contract you could go out and get a good to very good puck moving dman that could hit McDavid with breakout passes all night long. Plus the Oilers would retain their #10 pick thus keeping their prospect pool stocked. With the McClell-a-blender the Oilers could still reunite McNuge as they see fit, which, I agree, really is magic and fun to watch.

    I mean you’re actively making the second line worse in that case to barely improve the first line. The Oilers will never be good if they spend assets trying to find guys to play with McDavid. They need to find guys who can outscore on any lines. Improving Mcdavids line will only see a minimal uptick in GF%. It’s the second and third lines that need to be over 50%.

  59. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: Disagree. They’re starved for a 1C, and Leon is a sure thing. As highly as you and I think of Svechnikov, there’s still some risk there – remember that Yakopov and Dylan Strome tore up the CHL and posted stupendous numbers in their draft years too.

    Dylan Strome, 6’3, C, OHL, draft-1:68, 45-84-1291.90p/g
    Hlinka Memorial 5, 5-1-6

    Nail Yakupov, 5’11, W, OHL, draft-1: 65, 49-52-1011.55p/g
    draft year:42, 31-38-69

    Evgeny Svechnikov, 6’2, W, QMJHL, draft: 55, 32-46-781.41p/g

    Andrei Svechnikov, 6’2, W, OHL, draft: 44, 40-32-721.64p/g

    I’m not suggesting that Svechnikov will be a bust, just that there is very real risk in valuing an unproven asset over a proven one.

    There is always a chance a team would do the deal, you are correct.

    I think Schevvy might be BETTER than ppl think. Highest GPG in OHL draft year since McDavid. I think Dahlin is over shadowing Schevvy. I think he is Laine 2.0.

    Its interesting, from Edm perspective, you clear off $7 Mil in Cap space ……

  60. JimmyV1965 says:

    There is some real opportunities dealing with Carolina right now. The fanbase has absolutely turned on players like Faulk, Skinner and Rask. Two years ago to give up Faulk they were demanding someone like Hall. Now the fanbase is talking second rounder.

    The owner is talking about systems being overrated. You just need players who play tougher. The new coach is talking about building a better culture, not better systems. Says they need 20 guys like Justin Williams.

    I get the sense they would drool at the prospect of getting Kassian. They would probably love Lucic too, but I doubt he goes there.

    However, the new GM doesn’t sound like he has any interest in trading the second pick, despite what the owner said the other day.

  61. rickithebear says:

    C10 compression and mild heart attack last night
    And someone wants to trade top 10 even pt toward last 2 yrs for non guarantee.

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99: Even if we are set with defense and keep the pick, we have gaping holes at wings, no NHL players who can fill two-way and PK roles and no sure things to fill these spots with.

    Keeping Strome, Caggiula and Benning and filling in holes with youth makes us miss the playoffs next year.

    Something has to give, and GM/coaching won’t fix it, there’s just not enough NHL talent on the roster.

    It’s all about goaltending. The Avs roster is no better then ours. If we get league avg goaltending we can make the playoffs. Not win the cup. Maybe in three years though.

  63. rickithebear says:

    Lucia has had 3 sub 10% shooting seasons he had 2 bounce back the next season that avg 3% above career avg shooting %
    That suggests a 26 goal season next year
    We shall see!

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Why is it sacrilege for PC to trade a pick but genius for Chevy to trade a first and more for a rental? Or Yzerman to trade his?

    Argue incompetence about th Oilers, but picks and players get traded and it makes teams better when done right.

    Thank you. I’ve found in life there are never absolutes. Every situation has nuance. To flat out say we can’t trade the pick defies logic IMO. I think it was Bob MacKenzie who said there’s a drop in quality at 9. I’ve heard many analysts say this is a uniquely good year to trade down.

  65. Woogie63 says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Kinda stings watching Winnipeg do so well in the playoffs this year after their GM largely sat on his hands for most of his tenure. A few astute trades and excellent drafting and they’re now one of the cup favourites. I can’t help but think we could be in a similar position if we hadn’t given away Hall, Eberle and the #16 and #33 picks for pennies on the dollar orhanded out albatross contracts to Lucic and Russell. Man.

    17-18

    Winnipeg
    Hellebuyck 67 games .924 SV%
    Mason 13 games .906 SV%
    Coach and GM are very Smart

    Edmonton
    Talbot 67 games .908 SV%
    Montoya 9 games .906 SV%
    Coach and GM sat on their hands they have employment reviewed

    16-17

    Winnipeg
    Hellebuyck 67 games .907 SV%
    Hutchinson 28 games .903 SV%
    Coach and GM sat on their hands they have employment reviewed

    Edmonton
    Talbot 73 games .919 SV%
    Brossoit 8 games .928 SV%
    Coach and GM are very Smart

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers still don’t have a coach in the organisation to replace McLellan if things go south next season.

    Toronto has Babcock coaching, but they have the bullpen ready with Keefe and DJ Smith.

    McLellan and Chiarelli have been here three years, and they have developed no coaching options. McLellan is rather Machiavellian in that he’s managed to make sure that there were and still are no alternatives to him.

    If they get Yawney as much speculated he can coach in the interim. I’ll be shocked if they don’t get at least one assistant capable of taking over should Tmac be fired. I suspect you will acknowledge this when they do of course.

  67. pts2pndr says:

    Bank Shot: Does it really matter?

    Coaches are the easiest of talent to acquire. Way more good coaches than teams.

    Darryl Sutter for instance is just sitting there on his ranch.

    If he is that good logic says he wouldn’t be sitting on his ranch!

  68. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    In the last off-season, once it was apparent where our cap structure was going, it became clear that we were going to be in a very tight cap crunch with our star player contracts (McDavid, Drai, Nuge) and some bloated contracts that are likely to be under-performed (Russell, Lucic).

    I formulated the opinion that the way forward to consistent contender status was going to be prospect depth, development and graduation – young players coming in to replace the “aging veterans” and providing value contracts – performance that outperforms their cap hit.

    The problem was that the plan was to contend this year and to improve the team around the deadline by sending out futures to plug any holes. I had expressed my concern that our prospect pool was already shallow and becoming buyers at the deadline would further deplete it and it could hurt the future.

    As it turns out, we weren’t buyers and, while this is unfortunate, the silver lining is we didn’t have to give up future for immediate and short term fixes and deplete our prospect pool.

    Nothing has changed. We still need to have value contracts in the future in order to complete and we still need to accumulate depth in our prospect pool

    Make the pick at 10 and lets move on.

    The only problem is a GM trying to keep his job. Things could go from bad to worse, if he is allowed free rein.

  69. OmJo says:

    https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/995000589024153601

    Putin goes to more high-danger scoring areas than half the current roster.

  70. jtblack says:

    Alpine: I mean you’re actively making the second line worse in that case to barely improve the first line. The Oilers will never be good if they spend assets trying to find guys to play with McDavid. They need to find guys who can outscore on any lines. Improving Mcdavids line will only see a minimal uptick in GF%. It’s the second and third lines that need to be over 50%.

    +1

  71. pts2pndr says:

    JimmyV1965: If they get Yawney as much speculated he can coach in the interim. I’ll be shocked if they don’t get at least one assistant capable of taking over should Tmac be fired. I suspect you will acknowledge this when they do of course.

    A coach with an assistant brought in to be able to take over is as I see it a catch 22 situation for both the players and for the management team. This would be worse than the three goalie situation. I believe this to be a recipe for disaster. Coach with no security and players who are aware of same! I can not see how this ends well for the hockey club!

  72. Bank Shot says:

    pts2pndr: If he is that good logic says he wouldn’t be sitting on his ranch!

    I’m not going to defend the guy. His track record speaks for itself.

    But Alain Vigneault is also not working.

    Coaching talent isn’t hard to come by. The on ice talent is the tough thing to suss out.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    Just speed read the comments today so far.

    Struck by the fact that even with the best player alive, the Oilers are still getting discussed Dante’s Inferno style like it’s 2007.

    You can’t make this up. No one would believe you.

  74. rickithebear says:

    I trade down if I can get Noel seton!

  75. Alpine says:

    hunter1909:
    Just speed read the comments today so far.

    Struck by the fact that even with the best player alive, the Oilers are still getting discussed Dante’s Inferno style like it’s 2007.

    You can’t make this up. No one would believe you.

    It’s truly fascinating that we’re still here. Hell, people were probably more optimistic back then. We didn’t know what would follow.

  76. Alpine says:

    rickithebear:
    I trade down if I can get Noel seton!

    Serron Noel? I assume most of his 28 G are EV if you like him that much Mr Bear.

  77. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oilers have a #1 Goalie and they play him like one – almost every single game. That can put an extreme load on a Goalie when it includes playoffs too. The Oilers made an astute move acquiring a quality backup at a fair market rate for term and money. The merits of this transaction has been discussed ad nauseam, feel free to contiunue.

    The Oiler have the world’s best player for as long as is humanly possible. Their top three Forwards are about as good as it gets. The rest is a continuing work in progress.

    The Oilers have a good Defense, with puck moving issues. They have a very good #1 pairing without a true #1 Defenseman. In-House, there is not that caliber of player because the Oilers would know by now if they did. Unfortunately those players are expensive if acquired. The Oilers can make do with a lesser puck-moving Defenseman if they can’t do better. Or, the Oilers can go after the caliber of Defense Connor McDavid deserves.

  78. Biggus Dickus says:

    I just watched the first period of the Norway game, but man is that McDavid kid good at stickpuck.

  79. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965:
    There is some real opportunities dealing with Carolina right now. The fanbase has absolutely turned on players like Faulk, Skinner and Rask.Two years ago to give up Faulk they were demanding someone like Hall. Now the fanbase is talking second rounder.

    The owner is talking about systems being overrated. You just need players who play tougher. The new coach is talking about building a better culture, not better systems. Says they need 20 guys like Justin Williams.

    I get the sense they would drool at the prospect of getting Kassian. They would probably love Lucic too, but I doubt he goes there.

    However, the new GM doesn’t sound like he has any interest in trading the second pick, despite what the owner said the other day.

    This is where career reps are made. Chia should be all over this.

  80. rickithebear says:

    Woogie glad you recognized that d pairs establish the Save% avg a goalie performs around.
    And
    The goalies performance is measured+/- to the established save% avg.

    Ex. GIordano – Hamilton established a .898 save% mean and Elliott generated a .937 save%
    .039 above. Calgary,s analytics guys said Dpair awesome and goalie sucked.

    It is what most do on here.
    Nurse avg was sub .895 in many games yet talbot yielded 2.17 against.

    Dpair mean and goalie performance around mean establishes
    CA – GA

    Forwards and off Dmen establish results berween CF – GF – CA

    Tmac changed and ruined CA – GA

  81. rickithebear says:

    Alpine: Serron Noel? I assume most of his 28 G are EV if you like him that much Mr Bear.

    Top 5 prospect age based Even NHLE

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    pts2pndr: A coach with an assistant brought in to be able to take over is as I see it a catch 22 situation for both the players and for the management team. This would be worse than the three goalie situation. I believe this to be a recipe for disaster. Coach with no security and players who are aware of same! I can not see how this ends well for the hockey club!

    Although I agree with this and think they should have simply fired Tmac, he has long standing relationship with Yawney and it shouldn’t be an issue. Same thing if they hire Gulutzan.

  83. jtblack says:

    Here is the main reason why Edmonton will be back in the Playoffs next year.

    Special Teams.

    Last yr overall Edm scored 234 and gave up 263. -29 on the year.
    PP they scored 31 Goals. Avg – 49. Best – 68
    SH they gave up 57 Goals. Avg – 49 Best – 34

    -26 on the year.

    So 5×5 they pretty much sawed off.

    This year 2 main factors will see Edm get close to or above the League averages.
    1) Better coaching. Tactical and player deployment on PP and SH, It can’t be any worse.
    2) Goalering. Talbot and Mr KHL have to be better Again, can’t be much worse.

    THIS = PLAYOFFS 🙂

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Do I remember correctly that you were one who doubted Connor in his draft year?

    Svechnikov offensively is going to blow Nuge out of the water and likely out score Drai, Leon maybe carrying more load as a centre.

    Svechnikov’s junior numbers are historic in the best junior league.

    Caveat emptor: junior numbers don’t always translate.

  85. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    C10 compression and mild heartattack last night
    And someone wants to trade top 10 even pt toward last 2 yrs for non guarantee.

    What kind of bear are you to have 10 cervical vertebrae?

  86. ArmchairGM says:

    Alpine: I mean you’re actively making the second line worse in that case to barely improve the first line. The Oilers will never be good if they spend assets trying to find guys to play with McDavid. They need to find guys who can outscore on any lines. Improving Mcdavids line will only see a minimal uptick in GF%. It’s the second and third lines that need to be over 50%.

    Agreed. The only reason to get Svechnikov is to provide a sniper for Draisaitl, IMO. Nuge-McDavid-Rattie (or other) already outscore top comp.

  87. ntrprtr says:

    Alpine,

    So by saying that the second and third lines need to improve you are saying that Leon wasn’t good enough at driving offence as a second line scorer, and you believe that Nugent-Hopkins would be worse. If Leon isn’t adequate as a second line center then why would you hesitate to trade him for Svechnikov? You’re adding a goal scorer to McDavid’s line and you could use the 5-7 million dollars saved to shore up your second line scoring. Personally I think both Draisaitl and RNH are excellent second line centres so I’m not convinced that you would be “actively making the second line worse”.

  88. PennersPancakes says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    100% agree. Overall I think hes a good GM but as hockey fans we tend to give goldfishes a run for their money in terms of memory. Tough to find a GM without a couple failed moves for sure but he mason gamble when goaltending has been an issue for years was questionable at best.

  89. ntrprtr says:

    ArmchairGM,

    If Ty Rattie is the answer to first line right wing then the Oilers may as well bring Cam Barker back as a top pairing defender. I don’t mind Rattie as an NHL player but if the Oilers are going to start competing for Stanleys they need to think bigger than that for McDavid’s right side.

  90. JimmyV1965 says:

    ntrprtr:
    Alpine,

    So by saying that the second and third lines need to improve you are saying that Leon wasn’t good enough at driving offence as a second line scorer, and you believe that Nugent-Hopkins would be worse. If Leon isn’t adequate as a second line center then why would you hesitate to trade him for Svechnikov? You’re adding a goal scorer to McDavid’s line and you could use the 5-7 million dollars saved to shore up your second line scoring. Personally I think both Draisaitl and RNH are excellent second line centres so I’m not convinced that you would be “actively making the second line worse”.

    I really really like Svechnikov, but I would never trade Drai to get him. Are you not basically hoping he becomes as good as Drai? To expect him to be better is a little unreasonable. You just never know, he might be the next Sam Bennett.

  91. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: What kind of bear are you to have 10 cervical vertebrae?

    I do not know the spine
    That is what the doc said after
    Getting aspirin, nitro, morphine and watever the heck they injected into the IV
    Chest x-ray showed chest infection and vertebrae compression.

    In hospital isolated with expected 3 day anti biotic treatment and revisit of cup oncology and Pharmacology visit of cancer cocktail and 15 daily meds.

    Cardiology said I got. lucky with on the heart side relative to
    Damage per blood screens, ecg ……

  92. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: What kind of bear are you to have 10 cervical vertebrae?

    Polar bears, like other mammals including humans, have 7 cervical vertebrae. However they have long extensions that often (along with that extremely long neck) confuse inexperienced anatomists into thinking the actual number is much higher. When you feel the neck of a polar bear through the fur and its massive trapezius muscles it actually feels like 10 distinct vertebrae. This complex vertebral structure is believed to be an adaptation for swimming.

  93. rickithebear says:

    godot10: Winnipeg and Tampa are cup contenders.The Oilers are an NHL bottom feeder again.Bottom feeders should keep their picks.Contenders can make a move for the short term to try to get themselves over the top.

    Plus, Winnipeg and Tampa have absolutely loaded farm system.The Oilers farm system is a desert.

    Oilers beat Anaheim in 5 if first goalie interferference call is made.

  94. PennersPancakes says:

    JimmyV1965,

    For the right package I’m in the boat that anyone other than McDavid is tradable. If someone really wants to overpay its only polite to let them do so.

    If the drop off after 9 is significant, picking 10th could have a lot of value. Seems every year some top prospect drops (ie. Fowler) when one team reaches for need/a hunch. Teams wanting center prospects (Veleno perhaps) might leave a nice dman available.

  95. Andy Dufresne says:

    Fire up the Nuge rumours again. Trade at peak value.

    Nuge and the 10th to Montreal for the 3rd and Pacioretty.

    Montreal gets 2 centers out of the deal. Nuge + (Barret Hayton, Joe Veleno, or Jesperi Kotkaniemi)

    Oilers get Zadina on the RW and Patches on the left.
    .

    Pacioretty will score at a rate equal to or greater than RNH on the LW. Saves $1.5 million on cap.
    .

    RW goes from a virtual wasteland to an area of strength within 2 seasons.

    Zadina
    JP
    Yamamoto

  96. PennersPancakes says:

    rickithebear,

    +1

    The 17-18 team is nearly identical to the 16-17 team who “should” have been in the western conference finals yet people talk like theres not a hells chance in making the playoffs next year. Its crazy.

    The difference between making the playoffs and missing are razor thin year to year. Teams who made the playoffs last year who failed this year include: Chicago (near-dynasty), St Louis (2nd round), Oilers (2nd round), Montreal, New York (2nd round), Ottawa and (ECF). 6/16 teams.

    Colorado put up 48 points last year, squeaked into the playoffs this year. New Jersey put up 70 points and squeaked in as well. Both teams got bounced in the first round but still, I put money on the oilers over those two teams at the very least.

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965:
    There is some real opportunities dealing with Carolina right now. The fanbase has absolutely turned on players like Faulk, Skinner and Rask.Two years ago to give up Faulk they were demanding someone like Hall. Now the fanbase is talking second rounder.

    The owner is talking about systems being overrated. You just need players who play tougher. The new coach is talking about building a better culture, not better systems. Says they need 20 guys like Justin Williams.

    I get the sense they would drool at the prospect of getting Kassian. They would probably love Lucic too, but I doubt he goes there.

    However, the new GM doesn’t sound like he has any interest in trading the second pick, despite what the owner said the other day.

    Interesting info. I doubt Kassian is too highly rated in NC, but it’s worth a try. Strangely, I’ve been hearing Hurricanes fans talk about trading Hanifin; if we need to improve puck movement from the back end I’d start there. How about this:

    to EDM
    Hanifin (signed to something like Severson or Matheson got, $4 – 4.8M x long term)
    #2 pick (Svechnikov)

    to CAR
    Puljujarvi
    #10 pick
    Kassian
    Jones
    + something else (Cagguila? Maksomov?)

    Okay, so I know we’ve just added to the leftorium, which is less than ideal. Depending on the tone of contract discussions this summer, Trouba might shake loose in the Peg. Actually, I’d do this trade before the Carolina trade above.

    to EDM
    Trouba (needs a contract, something like Parayko’s 5 x $5.5 might do it)

    to WPG
    Nurse (or Klefbom)
    Bear

    Would these be considered fair hockey trades? We’d still have a full compliment of picks for 2019, 20 and 21 to even things out if need be.

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    ntrprtr:
    ArmchairGM,

    If Ty Rattie is the answer to first line right wing then the Oilers may as well bring Cam Barker back as a top pairing defender. I don’t mind Rattie as an NHL player but if the Oilers are going to start competing for Stanleys they need to think bigger than that for McDavid’s right side.

    I didn’t say he was the answer, re-read my post. In any case, the Oilers need to start finding Sheary and Rust-type guys on cheap contracts who can play with the RNH-McDavid pairing, whether that’s Rattie or Aberg or Kassian, IDGAF. The priority for this summer is to improve the Draisaitl line, Lucic and Caggiula are not getting it done.

  99. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM,

    “Okay, so I know we’ve just added to the leftorium, which is less than ideal. ”

    There’s your answer. With your trade edm would have LHD:
    HANIFIN
    KLEFBOM
    NURSE
    SEKERA

    Meaning another trade would need to occur.

  100. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I really really like Svechnikov, but I would never trade Drai to get him.Are you not basically hoping he becomes as good as Drai? To expect him to be better is a little unreasonable. You just never know, he might be the next Sam Bennett.

    His points-per-game in OHL (1.64) are exactly the same as Yakupov’s were in his draft year. Not saying he’ll be a bust, just that junior production sometimes doesn’t translate. Dylan Strome scored 1.90 in his draft year.

  101. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: I didn’t say he was the answer, re-read my post. In any case, the Oilers need to start finding Sheary and Rust-type guys on cheap contracts who can play with the RNH-McDavid pairing, whether that’s Rattie or Aberg or Kassian, IDGAF. The priority for this summer is to improve the Draisaitl line, Lucic and Caggiula are not getting it done.

    +1. If Drai has decent NHL wingers I believe he can push the River as 2C.

  102. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: I do not know the spine
    That is what the doc said after
    Getting aspirin, nitro, morphineand watever the heck they injected into the IV
    Chestx-ray showed chest infection and vertebrae compression.

    In hospital isolated with expected 3 day anti biotic treatment and revisit of cup oncology and Pharmacology visit of cancer cocktail and 15 daily meds.

    Cardiology said I got. lucky with on the heart side relative to
    Damage per blood screens, ecg ……

    That stinks sorry to hear. I was just teasing but probably not a good time.
    Get well soon.
    Compression fractures suck. I treated 4 of them this week ( 3 in one person)

  103. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    ntrprtr:
    ArmchairGM,

    If Ty Rattie is the answer to first line right wing then the Oilers may as well bring Cam Barker back as a top pairing defender. I don’t mind Rattie as an NHL player but if the Oilers are going to start competing for Stanleys they need to think bigger than that for McDavid’s right side.

    – So you see the future? You knew that Maroon, who was just brutal, out of shape, sold at a discount, was going to light it up with McD. Then you knew he was going to be not so effective the next year? You are certain that Rattie can’t be like a Sheary in year 1 with Crosby?

  104. SwedishPoster says:

    rickithebear: I do not know the spine
    That is what the doc said after
    Getting aspirin, nitro, morphineand watever the heck they injected into the IV
    Chestx-ray showed chest infection and vertebrae compression.

    In hospital isolated with expected 3 day anti biotic treatment and revisit of cup oncology and Pharmacology visit of cancer cocktail and 15 daily meds.

    Cardiology said I got. lucky with on the heart side relative to
    Damage per blood screens, ecg ……

    Sounds rough ricki. Battle on. Hope you have your loved ones with you for support and make sure you tell them what they mean to you. That’s how you fight it.

  105. Alpine says:

    ntrprtr:
    Alpine,

    So by saying that the second and third lines need to improve you are saying that Leon wasn’t good enough at driving offence as a second line scorer, and you believe that Nugent-Hopkins would be worse. If Leon isn’t adequate as a second line center then why would you hesitate to trade him for Svechnikov? You’re adding a goal scorer to McDavid’s line and you could use the 5-7 million dollars saved to shore up your second line scoring. Personally I think both Draisaitl and RNH are excellent second line centres so I’m not convinced that you would be “actively making the second line worse”.

    Whoever you trade Draisaitl for shouldn’t be playing with McDavid, basically. McDavid will score with whoever. Also you said earlier the money saved could go towards a puck moving D? Not sure you can upgrade both RD and the 2nd line with only 7 million. We don’t have much extra cap space as it is.

    Not sure Nuge can drive the second line. Doesn’t have good results in his career without Hall or Eberle. Oilers would have no wingers as good as those two in that scenario anyways. Just an aging lucic and a still developing Puljujarvi.

    No way I trade Draisaitl for an unproven player anyways. It gets you no closer to the playoffs next year or possibly even the year after.

    I think Draisaitl is a better 2C than Nuge so yes, adding Svechnikov to the 1st line who likely won’t outscore Nuge’s numbers with 97 effectively does make the 2nd line worse while barely moving the needle with the first line. Yes you save money for a couple years until you would likely have to pay Svechnikov as much as Drai.

  106. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: Polar bears, like other mammals including humans, have 7 cervical vertebrae. However they have long extensions that often (along with that extremely long neck) confuse inexperienced anatomists into thinking the actual number is much higher. When you feel the neck of a polar bear through the fur and its massive trapezius muscles it actually feels like 10 distinct vertebrae. This complex vertebral structure is believed to be an adaptation for swimming.

    So do giraffes.

    The more you know

    (Not having playoff hockey sucks)

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    ArmchairGM,

    “Okay, so I know we’ve just added to the leftorium, which is less than ideal. ”

    There’s your answer. With your trade edm would have LHD:
    HANIFIN
    KLEFBOM
    NURSE
    SEKERA

    Meaning another trade would need to occur.

    Um… try reading the rest of the post?

  108. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: His points-per-game in OHL (1.64) are exactly the same as Yakupov’s were in his draft year. Not saying he’ll be a bust, just that junior production sometimes doesn’t translate. Dylan Strome scored 1.90 in his draft year.

    There are always outliers, but Generally at #2, you are getting a Franchise type player. Schevvy finished reg season on a 23 game point streak. He had 44 Points during that stretch.

    He finished VERY strong. always a chance hes a bust BUT the odds are in favor of him being an Impact Nhl player

  109. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: Um… try reading the rest of the post?

    Apologies !

  110. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: There are always outliers, but Generally at #2, you are getting a Franchise type player.Schevvy finished reg season on a 23 game point streak. He had 44 Points during that stretch.

    He finished VERY strong.always a chance hes a bust BUT the odds are in favor of him being an Impact Nhl player

    Of course, but Generally at #1, you are getting a Franchise type player. Life doesn’t always work out that way though (cough*yak*cough), and I’ll be damned if I’m trading an established elite NHLer for a magic bean, no matter how magic it is. That’s all I’m saying.

  111. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: Apologies !

    😉

    NW

  112. VOR says:

    rickithebear: I do not know the spine
    That is what the doc said after
    Getting aspirin, nitro, morphineand watever the heck they injected into the IV
    Chestx-ray showed chest infection and vertebrae compression.

    In hospital isolated with expected 3 day anti biotic treatment and revisit of cup oncology and Pharmacology visit of cancer cocktail and 15 daily meds.

    Cardiology said I got. lucky with on the heart side relative to
    Damage per blood screens, ecg ……

    Hey Ricki,

    I want to offer you some very well intentioned advice.

    I am guessing what your doctor said was your compression was at T10. This would be unusual (T11 and T12 are more common compression sites) but not unheard of especially in a cancer patient.

    If you didn’t suffer a weird fall recently you need to talk with your oncologist about it today. Just to make sure they know you are experiencing vertebral compression. Some chemo drugs and treatment regimes cause serious bone density loss the first sign of which is compression fractures in your spine.

  113. ntrprtr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I do not now nor have I ever claimed to see the future. Nor did I ever suggest the Oilers should trade for Patrick Maroon so I honestly don’t think that your argument is relative. I’m sure that we can all come up with examples from the past that support our current stance. All I am saying is that Ty Rattie is 25 years old and the 14 games he played with the Oilers this past season is the most games he has ever played in a single NHL season. So my prognostication, and that’s all it is, is that Ty Rattie will not become a perennial 30 goal scorer. So no I don’t believe that Ty Rattie in his 7th year can be like a Sheary in year 1 with Crosby. No crystal ball, no time travel, just my opinion. And I believe that I am entitled to that.

  114. who says:

    godot10: Winnipeg and Tampa are cup contenders.The Oilers are an NHL bottom feeder again.Bottom feeders should keep their picks.Contenders can make a move for the short term to try to get themselves over the top.

    Plus, Winnipeg and Tampa have absolutely loaded farm system.The Oilers farm system is a desert.

    This! All day long!
    Tampa and Winnipeg are in a very different stage than Edmonton right now. The formula is to draft and develop till you have plenty of pieces to contend, then make the moves needed to get you over the top.
    Chia’s problem is that he tried to make this team a contender as soon as they drafted Mcdavid instead of drafting and developing more players. The Oilers weren’t ready to contend then and he essentially pushed the timeline back an extra 3 years by trying to speed things up.

  115. ntrprtr says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I absolutely agree that the Oilers need to start finding Sheary and Rust-type guys on cheap contracts who can play. I think that’s been a short coming for years. If Lucic has a bounce back season then great but he is still anything but an inexpensive solution. I don’t think Caggiula is the answer either. I’m curious to see how Marody and Vesel pan out and I’m hopeful one or both can be that cheap contract. A boy can dream.

  116. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Really hope the oil don’t end up choosing from Bouchard, Dobson, Smith. I like Hughes and Boqvist, but hope a forward falls. Kotkaniemi, Hayton, or if Wahlstrom somehow fell.

    Merkley in rd 2 would be a dream IMO

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side,

    Some people just like to make up reasons to hate Oilers management

    The list of reasons that are not made up that are reasons to hate Oilers management are legion.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Do I remember correctly that you were one who doubted Connor in his draft year?

    Svechnikov offensively is going to blow Nuge out of the water and likely out score Drai, Leon maybe carrying more load as a centre.

    Svechnikov’s junior numbers are historic in the best junior league.

    Yeah, he’s tracking like Hall.

    I’d call CAR 3 times a day to get a deal done.

  119. Wilde says:

    The Jets have good drafting and don’t do anything stupid, therefore they’re one of the best teams because everyone else feels the need to do something stupid.

    The best of the western conference this year consists of:

    – A team loaded with good players because NHL management and coaching staffs can’t tell the difference between their 4th best player and their 12th

    – A team that should be the definition of average because they sit on their hands, but instead are elite because the average team bleeds more talent than they acquire despite having the default ability to add a minimum of 7 talents per year

    What a circus of a league.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Can we attribute what the Jets have done to a philosophy because of how we view their actions? In the same way we guess about what the Oilers motives are?

    Maybe the draft and wait philosophy had to do with having no cash, so no other options.

    That’s an astute observation.

    Same as Lowe finding Dmen under rocks when he had no budget.

  121. Wilde says:

    Damon Severson’s WOWY with Hall this season is absolute comedy.

    Hynes used Severson-Hall when he had OZS’s, especially on icings, to go for the throat.

    Otherwise Severson was used pretty neutrally.

    GF – GA ( GF/60 / / GA/60 )

    With Hall:

    29 -15 ( 4.29 / / 2.22 ) <- four point two nine!!

    Without Hall:

    28 – 49 ( 1.89 / / 3.31 )

    Yikes.

    (The PDO swings from 1048 to 0960)

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10,

    Check your twitter.

  123. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    I’ll add I still like Severson, he likely just costs too much because pointz.

    I think he’s a player that has defensive warts, but when he plays with talented forwards his effects on even strength offense, in terms of on ice goals, is very good.

    Pretty sure he’s not a vampire… pretty sure…

  124. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack: this:

    I really like Svetch. I think he’s a stud, but I still don’t trade Drai for him. He may end up being better than Drai, but it’s unlikely.

  125. JimmyV1965 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Really hope the oil don’t end up choosing from Bouchard, Dobson, Smith. I like Hughes and Boqvist, but hope a forward falls. Kotkaniemi, Hayton, or if Wahlstrom somehow fell.

    Merkley in rd 2 would be a dream IMO

    I’d be thrilled to get Calen Addison in the second round as well. I might be dreaming though. Will likely go in first round.

  126. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: I’d be thrilled to get Calen Addison in the second round as well. I might be dreaming though. Will likely go in first round.

    I wouldn’t be so sure, if you’re a CHL defenseman and you’re under 6′, you have to score well over a pt/gm and maybe even then you don’t get into the first round.

    Sam Girard went #47. That’s the Q, but still.

    To be clear I have Calen Addison at the 21-30 tier.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack,

    So 5×5 they pretty much sawed off.

    16/17
    EDM 5v5 GF 166
    EDM 5v5 GA 140
    GF% 52.3%
    NHL rank 7th

    17/18
    EDM 5v5 GF 163
    EDM 5v5 GF 176
    GF% 48.1%
    NHL rank 21st.

    No sir.

    They did not saw off 5v5.

    Sekera, Klef and Larsson injuries were the single largest issue last year.

    They also significantly impacted 4v5.

    Dmen health will get EDM back to the playoffs.

    Cross your gingers.

  128. The Trade Guy says:

    Huddy is available but he’s the one former oiler that seems competent at his job, so not a fit for the red wine summit at the six ring circus.

  129. RonnieB says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Are the Jets cash poor ?

    The Jets are owned by True North Sports & Entertainment which is said to have 2 principal owners ( and unlisted minority partners ). Mark Chipman has a net worth of $500 million and David Thomson is worth $14 billion, so…

  130. Wilde says:

    That blurb in 31 thoughts about the Oilers and Kovalchuk, in my biased mind, is another bullet in the chamber for a salaried player heading out in June.

  131. Rondo says:

    Wilde,

    Severson healthy scratch in the playoffs , no thx

  132. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    So 5×5 they pretty much sawed off.

    16/17
    EDM 5v5 GF 166
    EDM 5v5 GA 140
    GF% 52.3%
    NHL rank 7th

    17/18
    EDM 5v5 GF 163
    EDM 5v5 GF 176
    GF% 48.1%
    NHL rank 21st.

    No sir.

    They did not saw off 5v5.

    Sekera, Klef and Larsson injuries were the single largest issue last year.

    They also significantly impacted 4v5.

    Dmen health will get EDM back to the playoffs.

    Cross your gingers.

    Damn snap. Not sure how I butchered that. So basically they were poor in 5×4, 4×5 & 5×5. Yikes.

    We pray for Good Health.

  133. jtblack says:

    Wilde: I wouldn’t be so sure, if you’re a CHL defenseman and you’re under 6′, you have to score well over a pt/gm and maybe even then you don’t get into the first round.

    Sam Girard went #47. That’s the Q, but still.

    To be clear I have Calen Addison at the 21-30 tier.

    Most rankings have Addy 25 – 45? seems like a wide range. I do believe there is a decent chance he is around for Round 2 … and avail @ #41.

  134. RonnieB says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    The Oilers will have lots of options at #10.

    Corey Pronman’s mid-season rankings had Hayton 14th.
    Scott Wheeler’s year end rankings have him 24th.

    At least 3 of Kotkaniemi, Farabee, Valeno, Dobson and Smith will be there. If more than one of those names is missing it will mean that one or more of the top 9 has slipped through to the Oilers position.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Damon Severson’s WOWY with Hall this season is absolute comedy.

    Hynes used Severson-Hall when he had OZS’s, especially on icings, to go for the throat.

    Otherwise Severson was used pretty neutrally.

    GF – GA ( GF/60 / / GA/60 )

    With Hall:

    29 -15 ( 4.29 / / 2.22 ) <- four point two nine!!

    Without Hall:

    28 – 49 ( 1.89 / / 3.31 )

    Yikes.

    (The PDO swings from 1048 to 0960)

    Severson reminds me a lot of Faulk

  136. Wilde says:

    Rondo:
    Wilde,

    Severson healthy scratch in the playoffs , no thx

    Yes, the rightfully proud and accomplished Oilers organisation, stock full of talent and promise, should turn their nose up at undervalued players, who are beneath them.

    This team is so strong and deep that they should turn away any player that has ever been scratched or on the wrong side of public opinion, so as to not stain their sterling reputation, and dilute their oceanic talent pool.

    Just as we should be glad that any player that has a bad season or is maligned by our own coaching staff be shipped out of town, to preserve our winning culture of perseverance and perfection.

    It’s the top of the hour, so we now turn to our economic and business panel. John?

    “Sell low, buy high, folks. The market, as always, is perfectly efficient.”

  137. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Severson reminds me a lot of Faulk

    Can’t speak for Faulk too much, but I’ve done some video work on top of RUNNING THE NUMBERStm on Severson and basically his 2nd comp defending(post late November – Vatanen trade) this year was actually pretty good, especially away from Moore.

  138. Munny says:

    Hate seeing Oshie turn his skates like that on a line rush. D knows he has limited himself to passing only. Caps got some good zone time out of it, but they blew their best chance to penetrate the Rickibox.

  139. Munny says:

    First blood to DC. Seeing eye from the left point.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: Can’t speak for Faulk too much, but I’ve done some video work on top of RUNNING THE NUMBERStm on Severson and basically his 2nd comp defending(post late November – Vatanen trade) this year was actually pretty good, especially away from Moore.

    What is RUNNING THE NUMBERStm?

  141. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What is RUNNING THE NUMBERStm?

    Running the numbers, trademarked.

    Consists of not watching the games.

  142. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    So 5×5 they pretty much sawed off.

    16/17
    EDM 5v5 GF 166
    EDM 5v5 GA 140
    GF% 52.3%
    NHL rank 7th

    17/18
    EDM 5v5 GF 163
    EDM 5v5 GF 176
    GF% 48.1%
    NHL rank 21st.

    No sir.

    They did not saw off 5v5.

    Sekera, Klef and Larsson injuries were the single largest issue last year.

    They also significantly impacted 4v5.

    Dmen health will get EDM back to the playoffs.

    Cross your gingers.

    I think the biggest X factor is goaltending.

  143. JimmyV1965 says:

    RonnieB:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Are the Jets cash poor ?

    The Jets are owned by True North Sports & Entertainment which is said to have 2 principal owners ( and unlisted minority partners ). Mark Chipman has a net worth of $500 million and David Thomson is worth $14 billion, so…

    Thomson provided seed funding. They Had no interest in investing in the team on an ongoing basis.

  144. Scungilli Slushy says:

    RonnieB:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Are the Jets cash poor ?

    The Jets are owned by True North Sports & Entertainment which is said to have 2 principal owners ( and unlisted minority partners ). Mark Chipman has a net worth of $500 million and David Thomson is worth $14 billion, so…

    No ownership group will donate money to their team for the joy of trying to win a cup.

    The Oilers are fortunate (and should take advantage of) not in that Katz has money, but the team generates a lot of revenue even though it’s small market.

    The Jets and Canes are small market and I suspect lower revenue, as in Melnyk blowing up the Senators because he doesn’t want to shovel whatever money he’s made down that black hole.

    Internal budgets are about the revenue stream as opposed to the owner’s wealth or lack there of.

  145. VOR says:

    I want to start by saying I really like Svechnikov. He looks like a fine prospect. However, trading Drai for him is not a smart idea. I know his scoring has some of you drooling. But his 69 goals in 92 games would place him 14 on quant hockey’s list of top OHL scorers if he had the 100 goals to qualify. Though he drops out of the top 20 if you drop to only requiring 50 goals. And he doesn’t make the top 50 in points per game all time.

    Just saying maybe he doesn’t walk on water and isn’t a sure thing. To put it in perspective Svechnikov has scored at a .75 point per game clip. Tony Tanti went well over a goal a game.

    Only half of second OVs since 2000 have any argument for being called franchise players. You might want to check out those guys and decide for yourself which are better than Drai. I think it is a short list Doughty, Hedman, and Malkin. I can’t say many forwards come close. Gabriel Landeskog maybe.

    But we are going to trade a sure thing for about a 15% chance of getting a better player.

    To me this doesn’t make sense.

  146. Munny says:

    What a turn of events, lol.

  147. RonnieB says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Thanks for clarifying that.

  148. Munny says:

    Caps go up 3-0 on a fanned shot shoveled under the five hole by Snoopy.

  149. Munny says:

    Powerplay marker… Eller bangs in an OV rebound. Now 4-0.

  150. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: No ownership group will donate money to their team for the joy of trying to win a cup.

    The Oilers are fortunate (and should take advantage of) not in that Katz has money, but the team generates a lot of revenue even though it’s small market.

    The Jets and Canes are small market and I suspect lower revenue, as in Melnyk blowing up the Senators because he doesn’t want to shovel whatever money he’s made down that black hole.

    Internal budgets are about the revenue stream as opposed to the owner’s wealth or lack there of.

    It’s all all about spending smart…at the right time. The Jets outspent the Oilers on player salaries this season by a wide margin and are now reaping the benefits of playoff ticket sales, concessions, merchandise etc. ….worth millions. And they don’t have to pay players in the playoffs.
    Its estimated that every home playoff date is worth about $1.5 million in revenue to the the home team but Winnipeg may be a little lower but they are still reaping a windfall that will likely be repeated for several seasons.

  151. leadfarmer says:

    VOR:
    I want to start by saying I really like Svechnikov. He looks like a fine prospect. However, trading Drai for him is not a smart idea. I know his scoring has some of you drooling. But his 69 goals in 92 games would place him 14 on quant hockey’s list of top OHL scorers if he had the 100 goals to qualify. Though he drops out of the top 20 if you drop to only requiring 50 goals. And he doesn’t make the top 50 in points per game all time.

    Just saying maybe he doesn’t walk on water and isn’t a sure thing. To put it in perspective Svechnikov has scored at a .75 point per game clip. Tony Tanti went well over a goal a game.

    Only half of second OVs since 2000 have any argument for being called franchise players. You might want to check out those guys and decide for yourself which are better than Drai. I think it is a short list Doughty, Hedman, and Malkin. I can’t say many forwards come close. Gabriel Landeskog maybe.

    But we are going to trade a sure thing for about a 15% chance of getting a better player.

    To me this doesn’t make sense.

    What? Since 2000 Barkov Seguin Laine Eichel, Doughty, Hedman Malkin are crazy good players. Spezza, Ryan and Heatley had pretty darn good careers. Landeskog is a very good player and I think Reinhart will get there but stilll early
    JVR Staal Lehtonen has less than ideal but still long careers
    Murray is the only second OV player that you can really say didn’t pan out close to what you would expect and that was in a very terrible draft year.

    So only thing you can really say is well we are not drafting a goalie 2nd OV and it is not a terrible draft year so there’s a very good chance Svechnilov becomes a heck of a player

  152. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    If you are using prospectstats estimate for time on ice the player with the highest 5v5 goals per 60 in the OHL last 20 years is not Mcdavid, it’s not Crosby, it’s not Patrick Kane.
    It’s Svechnikov.
    Him not turning out to be a franchise player would be terribly disappointing. This is not a player that gets picked 2nd OV typically. This is a draft with a potential generational player and a likely franchise player

  153. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: What? Since 2000 Barkov Seguin Laine Eichel, Doughty, Hedman Malkin are crazy good players.Spezza, Ryan and Heatley had pretty darn good careers.Landeskog is a very good player and I think Reinhart will get there but stilll early
    JVR Staal Lehtonen has less than ideal but still long careers
    Murray is the only second OV player that you can really say didn’t pan out close to what you would expect and that was in a very terrible draft year.

    So only thing you can really say is well we are not drafting a goalie 2nd OV and it is not a terrible draft year so there’s a very good chance Svechnilov becomes a heck of a player

    Took a look at the second overall pick for the last 25 years…it’s almost a can’t miss spot.

  154. Munny says:

    Bolts zap the goose egg.

  155. Munny says:

    leadfarmer,

    It’s almost like you didn’t read his post.

  156. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Took a look at the second overall pick for the last 25 years…it’s almost a can’t miss spot.

    yeah the chance that svechnikov becomes equal or better than Drai I’d put at signifantly higher than the 15% VOR listed above. This is not just some prospect that had a good international tourney showing or good playoffs in a crap draft year. This is likely to be a very substantial player

  157. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    leadfarmer,

    It’s almost like you didn’t read his post.

    Are you sure you read his post?

  158. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: it’s almost a can’t miss spot.

    This isn’t what is in question.

  159. Munny says:

    Tampa gets their second. Palat gives them a breath of life.

  160. Munny says:

    leadfarmer,

    Of course I am, don’t be ridiculous.

  161. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: yeah the chance that svechnikov becomes equal or better than Drai I’d put at signifantly higher than the 15% VOR listed above.This is not just some prospect that had a good international tourney showing or good playoffs in a crap draft year.This is likely to be a very substantial player

    At least 50-50

  162. Wilde says:

    #21 ranked EU skater Niklas Nordgren had some pretty crazy numbers in the Junior Finnish league, he just turned 18 a week ago.

    May be underrated due to his lack of production in the Men’s league, but I bet like Berggren he got 7mins a night.

    I grabbed some other Finns production rates for comps, with the age that they were when the season /started/, I fudged some either way when they were Nov-March birthdays, not a perfect science:

    Name

    Age : pts / gp (pts/gp)

    Niklas Nordgren

    16 : 39 / 40 (0.975)
    17 : 42 / 28 (1.500)

    Teuvo Teravainen

    16 : 20 / 26 (0.769)
    17 : 20 / 11 (1.818)

    Mikko Rantanen

    16 : 24 / 35 (0.686)
    17 : 18 / 17 (1.058)

    Kasperi Kapanen

    16 : 29 / 36 (0.805)

    Henrik Borgstrom

    17 : 55 / 40 (1.375)

    Aleksi Saarela

    16 : 18 / 22 (0.818)
    17 : 22 / 17 (1.294)

  163. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    leadfarmer,

    Of course I am, don’t be ridiculous.

    Well that you would see his quantitative goal scoring analysis is all wrong then. Svechnikov is the best 5v5 per 60 goal scorer using hockeyprospect stats guess at ice time (current gold standard). Not 14th.

    The best ever. With 20 years of data. This is a guy you want. Not just a shiny new toy.

    Or if you are asking about the who i’d pick over Drai my top listed line including Barkov i would

  164. Munny says:

    10 seconds. Caps should be able to weather this lol.

  165. Munny says:

    leadfarmer,

    What I saw was a guy dissenting on the meaning of “franchise”. Largely by listing players who I don’t think VOR, and many others, would call “franchise”. That doesn’t make VOR wrong, it means you disagree on a definition.

    Hedman for eg is playing 2nd pairing right now this game.

    I, if you will check, was not responding to your second post.

  166. leadfarmer says:

    Munny,

    The players I listed was more of a response to VORs comment of players not even close to Draisatl not franchise players in general. I’d pick those players I listed on the first line above Draisatl Drai is a very good player but he is not a franchise player so I wouldn’t expect one in return for him although Svechnikov May become one.

  167. JimmyV1965 says:

    Can someone remind me how they decide prospectstats estimate for time on ice. My memory ain’t so great, but it seems to me I was skeptical when I read about it.

  168. Wilde says:

    Part of Justin Bournes’ Kyle Dubas article, where he speaks about Dubas’ managerial strategy when they were both working on the Marlies:

    “Kyle was extremely progressive. Trades, waiver-wire pick-ups, call-ups, whatever, there would be a new human carrying a hockey bag walking through our dressing room door within days of our team identifying a personnel weakness.”

    Contrast this with the Al Montoya trade.

  169. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: CAROLINA would NOT.They are potentially getting a 30 – 40 Goal scorer for 3 years at $900k (plus bonus).
    cant pass that up. EVEN for a player like Leon

    Depends on the wildcard owner and the level of need to progress quickly because of money. Dude thinks his team is wimpy, sound familiar? It may be a benefit to them to plug several perceived holes in one year rather than wait for the talented pick to develop, or possibly not reach expectations.

    It would probably be a package. I think Drai would be too much. More like Nuge and Kassian for 2 and Faulk. Nuge is worth a lot, the age, the contract. Faulk could be kept a year and flipped if he actually is awful. Larsson Faulk Benning is probably better than Larsson Russell Benning.

  170. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    It would probably be a package. I think Drai would be too much. More like Nuge and Kassian for 2 and Faulk. Nuge is worth a lot, the age, the contract. Faulk could be kept a year and flipped if he actually is awful. Larsson Faulk Benning is probably better than Larsson Russell Benning.

    That would be one of the worst trades of all time for Carolina.

    Did you mean Nuge and Kass for Fauk and swapping first rounders?

  171. VOR says:

    Guys the list of 2nd OV from the time period I mentioned.

    Nolan Patrick
    Patrik Laine
    Jack Eichel
    Sam Reinhart
    Aleksander Barkov
    Ryan Murray
    Gabriel Landeskog
    Tyler Seguin
    Victor Hedman
    Drew Doughty
    James Van Riemsdyk
    Jordan Stall
    Bobby Ryan
    Evgeni Malkin
    Eric Stall
    Kari Lehtonen
    Jason Spezza
    Dany Heatley

    I think right of the bat we can agree Patrick, Reinhart, Murray, Van Riesmdyk, Jordan Stall, Ryan, and Lehtonen are not close to being franchise players. That is 7 of 18. Dany Heatley was one of the worst two way players in the game. And he sure couldn’t carry a team. Aleksander Barkov was great this year but has a long way to go to be called a franchise player. That is 9 of 18 that are franchise players. Last I checked that is 50% which is what I said.

    Then we come to which guys are better than Drai. He and Jason Spezza have similar performance through the same age. Eric Stall had one great year and a lot of years that look similar to worse than Drai with more minutes. Patrik Laine never passes the puck and as a result is never going to be clearly better. Drai appears on pace with Gabriel Landeskog even ahead. Purely statistically Seguin is ahead but he seems a triumph of style over substance to me. Are any of these guys indisputably better than Drai? Nope. Comparable certainly.

    That leaves you with three names.

    So you are looking at trading a known quantity for a shiny new toy that has a 15% chance of being better than your current toy.

    In a perfect world Svechnikov is like Laine. Except he passes even less.

    And there is a real chance NHL goaltenders aren’t going to quite as easy to score against as goalies in the O.

  172. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Depends on the wildcard owner and the level of need to progress quickly because of money. Dude thinks his team is wimpy, sound familiar? It may be a benefit to them to plug several perceived holes in one year rather than wait for the talented pick to develop, or possibly not reach expectations.

    It would probably be a package. I think Drai would be too much. More like Nuge and Kassian for 2 and Faulk. Nuge is worth a lot, the age, the contract. Faulk could be kept a year and flipped if he actually is awful. Larsson Faulk Benning is probably better than Larsson Russell Benning.

    Brind ‘Amour is already on record as saying he thinks he can unlock Staal’s potential as a #1 C (see Couturier for reference)

    I doubt Nuge moves the needle all that much and Kassian is an overpaid 4th liner.

    Nothing to see here.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think Svechnikov may be a higher rated prospect than the likes of Hall, Stamkos, Eichel, etc., maybe even higher than Matthews – its like when Malkin was drafted, a franchise (almost generational) player going 2nd overall because of a separate generational playerin the same draft year.

  174. Munny says:

    I’m going to know what colour underwear Dubas prefers before this week is out.

    #BIGsmoke

  175. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m on record stating I think Svechnikov is the best kid available this draft. But I can certainly understand VOR’s caution, and have also never proposed trading Drai for the young star. Partly, well mostly, because the issue is more complicated than who has more talent.

  176. Wilde says:

    VOR,

    Barkov is an absolutely incredible player, no doubt a franchise #1 centre.

    PPG, Selke-level complete player centring one of the strongest best-vs-best lines since draft+3.

    Probably the 4th or 5th best player in that list.

  177. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: Are you sure you read his post?

    It is actually obvious you didn’t read my post. I said half were franchise players. That at 2 OV you have a 50% chance of getting a franchise player. I then asked which of the 9 franchise players that were drafted in that slot in those years are better than Drai. My answer remains Malkin, Hedman and Doughty.

    I didn’t say they weren’t good players. Just not clearly better. Drai is a huge asset, trading him for a strong likelihood of a player who has a 7/18 chance of being clearly worse, a 50% chance of being some what worse and only a 15% of being clearly better makes no sense to me.

    You are talking about a guy who has a very real chance of being in the top 20 point and point per game players over the next decade for a kid who at best is Patrik Laine.

  178. VOR says:

    Wilde,

    Sustain matters I will add him to the list when he can do it for more than one year. Still not clearly better than Drai.

  179. Wilde says:

    Munny:
    I’m going to know what colour underwear Dubas prefers before this week is out.

    #BIGsmoke

    There are more play-by-play posts from the TBY/WSH game by you in this comments section than there are posts about Dubas.

  180. Harpers Hair says:

    VOR: It is actually obvious you didn’t read my post. I said half were franchise players. That at 2 OV you have a 50% chance of getting a franchise player. I then asked which of the 9 franchise players that were drafted in that slot in those years are better than Drai. My answer remains Malkin, Hedman and Doughty.

    I didn’t say they weren’t good players. Just not clearly better. Drai is a huge asset, trading him for a strong likelihood of a player who has a 7/18 chance of being clearly worse, a 50% chance of being some what worse and only a 15% of being clearly better makes no sense to me.

    You are talking about a guy who has a very real chance of being in the top 20 point and point per game players over the next decade for a kid who at best is Patrik Laine.

    I read your posts (all of them)

    Oh my.

    Seguin is style over substance?

    Lets start there.

    The best player in the league at zone entities.

    Laine has 80 goals in two seasons and will never pass the puck.

    Good grief.

  181. VOR says:

    leadfarmer:
    Munny,

    The players I listed was more of a response to VORs comment of players not even close to Draisatl not franchise players in general.I’d pick those players I listed on the first line above Draisatl Drai is a very good player but he is not a franchise player so I wouldn’t expect one in return for him although Svechnikov May become one.

    I never said they weren’t close to Drai, I said they weren’t better. Drai is exactly like Svecnikov, Dahlen pushes him down. Most years I’d agree he goes #1.

    McDavid pushes Drai down. On other teams he is the Franchise aka Eichel. Not his fault he plays with the greatest player in the game.

  182. Wilde says:

    VOR:
    Wilde,

    Sustain matters I will add him to the list when he can do it for more than one year. Still not clearly better than Drai.

    This was his third year in a row carrying a line that outscored the best lines in the NHL.

    He’s had 3 better years than any of Leon’s.

    Here’s his on-ice goalshare 5v5 and points/gp:

    Age : GF – GA (+/-) GF% / / pts/gp

    Age 20 : 50 – 33 (+17) 60.24% / / 0.893
    Age 21 : 41 – 30 (+11) 57.75% / / 0.852
    Age 22 : 67 – 56 (+11) 54.47% / / 0.987

  183. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    Here’s Leon, as a centre:

    Age 20 : 46 – 43 (+3) 51.69% / / 0.708
    Age 21 : 19 – 24 (-5) 44.19% / / 0.939
    Age 22 : 28 – 38 (-10) 42.42% / / 0.897

  184. slopitch says:

    Ya Barkov is legit. Incredibly underated.

    I’d move Nuge in AD’s suggestion. Nuge + 10 for 3 + MaxPac. I like going after #2 too. Offseason man. So long, good thing the jets are making the playoffs worth watching. Glad the Preds are out. Can’t stand them. Not sure why maybe the puke coloured jersies lol

  185. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    VOR,

    Barkov is an absolutely incredible player, no doubt a franchise #1 centre.

    PPG, Selke-level complete player centring one of the strongest best-vs-best lines since draft+3.

    Probably the 4th or 5th best player in that list.

    This is true. I love Drai and would never trade him for 2OV, but he can learn a lot about playing defence from a guy like Barkov.

  186. Wilde says:

    Wilde:
    #21 ranked EU skater Niklas Nordgren had some pretty crazy numbers in the Junior Finnish league, he just turned 18 a week ago.

    May be underrated due to his lack of production in the Men’s league, but I bet like Berggren he got 7mins a night.

    I grabbed some other Finns production rates for comps, with the age that they were when the season /started/, I fudged some either way when they were Nov-March birthdays, not a perfect science:

    Name

    Age : pts / gp (pts/gp)

    Niklas Nordgren

    16 : 39 / 40 (0.975)
    17 : 42 / 28 (1.500)

    Teuvo Teravainen

    16 : 20 / 26 (0.769)
    17 : 20 / 11 (1.818)

    Mikko Rantanen

    16 : 24 / 35 (0.686)
    17 : 18 / 17 (1.058)

    Kasperi Kapanen

    16 : 29 / 36 (0.805)

    Henrik Borgstrom

    17 : 55 / 40 (1.375)

    Aleksi Saarela

    16 : 18 / 22 (0.818)
    17 : 22 / 17 (1.294)

    Blurb about Nordgren from a CanucksArmy article:

    “Diminutive Finn Niklas Nordgren (51st) is likely going to jump up some lists after leading the Gold Medal winning Finnish squad in scoring at the World Under-18’s last week. Nordgren tore apart the Finnish junior league this year, with 42 points in just 28 games, and appeared in 15 games in the top pro league, SM-Liiga, notching three assists. Even at just 5-foot-9, his Expected Likelihood of Success through pGPS is among the top tier in the class at 54%, and he posted a stellar on-ice goals ratio of 70%. Averaging 11:50 of ice time per game leads to a fairly volatile sample size, but he also posted a 50.5% corsi-for percentage this season, which is better than either highly touted Finns Kotkaniemi (49.7%) or Rasmus Kupari (46.3%) managed.”

  187. Munny says:

    Wilde,

    That’s correct. Both are commentary on what is happening in the world of hockey. If you don’t like it, you can always try another site. Or just not read.

  188. VOR says:

    Wilde,

    You have me convinced so the list of definitely better is Barkov, Malkin, Doughty, and Hedman. 2D men, 2 Cs.

    But let’s give Harper’s Hair Seguin (I just don’t like his game).

    I am not conceding on Laine. I am not, I repeat, saying he’s worse than Drai, just not clearly better.

    But let’s assume I conceded that one as well. Now 6 of 18 are clearly better. 1/3. Trading a 22 year old who is well on his way to an outstanding career for a 1/3 chance at something better still makes no sense.

    i thought the consensus was get good players, keep good players. Is Draisaitl not a good player?

    Do any of you actually believe Svechnikov is a sure thing? Rationally you have to know there is a real chance that five years from now he isn’t in the top 2 players in this draft class. Why would you trade certainty for risk? Especially when the upside is at best a 33% chance of getting better.

  189. jtblack says:

    VOR,

    “Why would you trade certainty for risk? Especially when the upside is at best a 33% chance of getting better”.

    Part of the debate was that PC has boxed himself in. So the reason you make a desperate trade like this:

    DRAI – $8.5 MIL PER
    #2OV – $900K PER

    Would give PC relief from some of his previous poor signings.

    For the record, I would NOT trade Drai

  190. Wilde says:

    VOR:
    Wilde,

    You have me convinced so the list of definitely better is Barkov, Malkin, Doughty, and Hedman. 2D men, 2 Cs.

    But let’s give Harper’s Hair Seguin (I just don’t like his game).

    I am not conceding on Laine. I am not, I repeat, saying he’s worse than Drai, just not clearly better.

    But let’s assume I conceded that one as well. Now 6 of 18 are clearly better. 1/3. Trading a 22 year old who is well on his way to an outstanding career for a 1/3 chance at something better still makes no sense.

    i thought the consensus was get good players, keep good players. Is Draisaitl not a good player?

    Do any of you actually believe Svechnikov is a sure thing? Rationally you have to know there is a real chance that five years from now he isn’t in the top 2 players in this draft class. Why would you trade certainty for risk? Especially when the upside is at best a 33% chance of getting better.

    To be clear, I would absolutely not make the move, because the stakes are too high and it is wholly unnecessary to try to find an upgrade on Draisaitl in this way, or most ways at all.

    But I believe projecting this player based on the recent history of #2 selections is an infinitely inferior exercise to projecting the player based on the recent history of his peer group of junior scorers.

  191. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Side,

    Some people just like to make up reasons to hate Oilers management

    The list of reasons that are not made up that are reasons to hate Oilers management are legion.

    Agreed. Which is why I don’t understand why people go out of their way to try and fabricate more reasons.

  192. Munny says:

    VOR,

    I can’t give it to Hedman, personally. McDonagh has been facing the tough matchups since at least the beginning of the playoffs. Hedman’s big, so somewhat slower developing maybe, but he’s not that guy right now.

  193. JimmyV1965 says:

    VOR:
    Wilde,

    You have me convinced so the list of definitely better is Barkov, Malkin, Doughty, and Hedman. 2D men, 2 Cs.

    But let’s give Harper’s Hair Seguin (I just don’t like his game).

    I am not conceding on Laine. I am not, I repeat, saying he’s worse than Drai, just not clearly better.

    But let’s assume I conceded that one as well. Now 6 of 18 are clearly better. 1/3. Trading a 22 year old who is well on his way to an outstanding career for a 1/3 chance at something better still makes no sense.

    i thought the consensus was get good players, keep good players. Is Draisaitl not a good player?

    Do any of you actually believe Svechnikov is a sure thing? Rationally you have to know there is a real chance that five years from now he isn’t in the top 2 players in this draft class. Why would you trade certainty for risk? Especially when the upside is at best a 33% chance of getting better.

    Trading Drai for the 2OV would not only be folly, but would cement our reputation as the most dysfunctional mngt in the league. Always chasing the next silver bauble hoping it’s better than what you have already. IMO it doesn’t make sense on any level.

  194. VOR says:

    As you know I think the Oilers have cap issues.

    But imagine you dealt Draisaitl for Carolina’s pick.

    The first thing that might happen is Buffalo could draft Svechnikov.

    Now don’t get me wrong. Dahlen is a phenomenal talent but drafting him makes the roster even more unbalanced and you have to move RNH back to center.

    But let’s say it goes as planned and Svechnikov is available. Imagine Svechnikov is Laine. Is that enough to replace Drai’s offence and move the needle of team performance? Given we are talking about a raw rookie probably not in the short term.

    So best case you’ve got your guy and are running in place but have a cheaper lineup. If you put him with McDavid you have an all eggs in one basket problem. You need to spend at least some of the money to upgrade your second line.

    Let’s say you save 3 million dollars this year. But in three years Svechnikov will be getting Drai money, or more if he is good enough to replace Drai’s offence. And you’d be right back where you are now or worse.

    You could try seeing if Svechnikov could drive a line and play him with RNH. That probably wouldn’t end well.

    Then there is the chance the kid isn’t as good as Drai. You’ve saved money long term but aren’t as good a team. Or you have to spend most of the savings upgrading your lineup to compensate for what you lost in trading Drai.

    The net likely reward of this strategy doesn’t seem worth the risk. Not when you could just buy out Sekera and get much of the same cap relief with far less risk.

  195. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: Caveat emptor: junior numbers don’t always translate.

    No but when there are no red flags it often does. Usually does for top 3 players. After the top 3 sometimes 5 it drops off rapidly.

    The busts had major red flags that were ignored. Like Johnson. Yaks year was just a brutal year. The the better players were further down, but players went when they should.

    That would have been the year to trade down.

    Svech at worst will be a top goal scorer because he has all 5 tools and drive. No brainer.

  196. VOR says:

    Wilde: To be clear, I would absolutely not make the move, because the stakes are too high and it is wholly unnecessary to try to find an upgrade on Draisaitl in this way, or most ways at all.

    But I believe projecting this player based on the recent history of #2 selections is an infinitely inferior exercise to projecting the player based on the recent history of his peer group of junior scorers.

    One of the things I think I have learnt from all this draft research is that GMs consistently underestimate the downside risk of players in the first round. They then reverse that in all subsequent rounds.

    So what I am saying is key factors like team fit and required development get overlooked by GMs in the excitement over the player. Casual fans are even worse.

    The result when GMs do it is bad asset management and team building and in this age cap issues.

    Jason Spezza is actually a great example. I’d say clearly he is the best player in his draft class. But he took longer to develop than Ottawa expected, ended up costing more per point than they wanted to pay, began deteriorating earlier than they expected, and ended up playing in another city, a lesser version of himself. Had they accurately understood his career arc Ottawa would have maximized the resource.

    I think it would be easy to get caught up in the evident upside of Svechnikov.

    Pretend for a moment that the Oilers were able to keep their entire active roster and draft Svechnikov. How likely do you think it would be that Chiarelli would go “my forwards are set for the next decade I can ignore forwards until McDavid retires.” Then it turns out Svechnikov isn’t Patrik Laine, he doesn’t rip it up in his rookie year. What do you think the odds are Chiarelli would panic?

    Whereas, if whoever drafts Svechnikov acknowledges the kid may take time, have a lower than expected ceiling, and age quickly he will end up having a better, more certain career, they will do a better job of maximizing the asset.

    I am merely trying to get people to acknowledge that there is some non trivial chance the kid disappoints. No draft pick is a sure thing. Once you accept that you realize you need to look deeper and longer and imagine more future outcomes for the young man.

    When I did this I concluded the kid is probably much further from being NHL ready than assumed. And he really needs to work on the idea that who scores is far less important than how many goals your team scores. This in turn is no more important than how many goals your team gives up.

    He has the raw tools. But this isn’t Patrik Laine.

  197. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Disagree. They’re starved for a 1C, and Leon is a sure thing. As highly as you and I think of Svechnikov, there’s still some risk there – remember that Yakopov and Dylan Strome tore up the CHL and posted stupendous numbers in their draft years too.

    Dylan Strome, 6’3, C, OHL, draft-1:68, 45-84-1291.90p/g
    Hlinka Memorial 5, 5-1-6

    Nail Yakupov, 5’11, W, OHL, draft-1: 65, 49-52-1011.55p/g
    draft year:42, 31-38-691.64p/g

    Evgeny Svechnikov, 6’2, W, QMJHL, draft: 55, 32-46-781.41p/g

    Andrei Svechnikov, 6’2, W, OHL, draft: 44, 40-32-721.64p/g

    I’m not suggesting that Svechnikov will be a bust, just that there is very real risk in valuing an unproven asset over a proven one.

    One note about those stats. While impressive those are all situation stats. If you isolate 5-on-5 and primary points you eliminate players who were either zoomed by lots of powerplay time or zoomed by linemates where they could pass it to one of two linemates and let them do the rest (1st assist and goal). Dominant lines and PPs can make a huge difference in junior (and everywhere).

    I’ve developed a stat for all Canadian juniors going back to Crosby’s draft year.

    (Primary Points per 60) / 60 (to get Pr Pts per minute) * 14.4167 (to get them to Median Top 6 TOI in the NHL) * 82 (for 82 games) * League Adjustment factor (.323 OHL, .302 WHL, .284 QMJHL) * % of Age over or under 17.5 yrs * .1672 (to adjust for age) * CHL Era Adjustment (based on Goals / GP compared to current year). I then applied an inflation number of 152.8% to bring them in line with historical data of the players who went straight to the NHL from their draft year for most players minus the outliers. When I adjusted NHL players to Era and to Median Top 6 minutes, I was able to get their Primary Points to line up nicely.

    That should give you an Expected Primary Points per Year as a Top 6 Forward if they went straight to the NHL.

    Those players look quite different in that light.

    Player Expected 5-on-5 Prime Pts for Top 6 NHLe – Actual NHL Rookie 5-on-5 Pr Pts as Top 6:
    Crosby 48 – No NHL Data for 5-on-5 Pr Pts / 60
    McDavid 44 – 44
    Andrei Svechnikov 39
    Marner 38
    D Strome 37
    P Kane 32 – 35
    Gagner 32 – 34
    MacKinnon 31 – 30
    Hall 30 – 23 (Shoulder injury)
    Stamkos 29 – 27
    Seguin 29 – 29
    Dubois 29
    Debrincat 29
    Mascherin 29
    Mangiapane 29
    Drouin 29
    E Kane 28 – 31
    R Strome 28
    Tavares 27 – 25
    Draisaitl 26 – 23
    Landeskog 25 – 24
    Tkachuk 25 – 34 (outperformed prediction)
    J Staal 25 – No NHL Data for 5-on-5 Pr Pts / 60
    Josh Bailey 25 – 13
    Eberle 25
    Grabner 25
    Athanasiou 25
    Grigorenko 24 – 22
    Duchene 24 – 28
    Niederreiter 24 – 23
    Skinner 24 – 38 (outperformed prediction)
    Gallagher 24
    Filip Zadina 24
    Yamamoto 24
    Seron Noel 24
    Yakupov 23 – 40 (outperformed prediction playing with Hall, he had a great rookie season)
    Hischier 23 – 41 (outperformed prediction, playing with Hall)
    Schenn 23
    Kadri 23
    B Pouliot 23
    Monahan 22 – 30 (outperformed prediction)
    Couturier 22 – 29 (outperformed prediction)
    Voracek 22
    Couture 22
    Rattie 22
    Benson 21 (injury issues)
    O’Reilly 20 – 17
    Marchand 20
    B Point 20
    Lazar 20
    Evgeny Svechnikov 20 – didn’t play draft +1 NHL
    Nugent-Hopkins 19 – 33 (outperformed prediction, playing with Hall)
    Burmistrov 19 – 16
    Sprong 18 – 18
    Patrick 18 – 21
    Barzal 18
    Kassian 18
    Boedker 17 – 19
    Maksimov 17
    Houck & Platzer 17
    Neal 17
    Giroux 17
    Galchenyuk 0 – 52 (No Junior season and one of the best NHL rookie seasons)
    Mitch Callahan 16
    Saad 16
    Scheifele 16
    Lucic 13
    Hebig 11

    I’d also look at who might be zooming who on their lines. Two players that are scoring equally on the same line in junior rarely turn out equal:
    P Kane – Gagner
    MacKinnon – Drouin
    Galchenyuk – Yakupov
    McDavid – Debrincat – D Strome
    B Schenn – Scott Glennie
    I thought Tkachuk was being zoomed, but maybe not.

    These numbers also make me wonder if guys like Couturier and Nugent-Hopkins outperform their numbers because they were playing a very responsible game in junior without teammates who embraced the systems as much as experienced NHLers, so when they got to the big show, their play was elevated because they finally had responsible players around them who played the game as they already did. I wonder if that will be Veleno this year.

  198. Munny says:

    VOR: I am merely trying to get people to acknowledge that there is some non trivial chance the kid disappoints. No draft pick is a sure thing. Once you accept that you realize you need to look deeper and longer and imagine more future outcomes for the young man.

    Hear, hear.

    And we need to look no further than our own Jesse for a prime example. The kid is obviously going to be a very good player one day, but on his own timeline and in his own way.

    And if Chia was counting on JP to replace a significant part of Hall’s minutes and offense right away, then that’s another great example of:

    VOR: So what I am saying is key factors like team fit and required development get overlooked by GMs in the excitement over the player. Casual fans are even worse.

    The result when GMs do it is bad asset management and team building and in this age cap issues.

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’m on record stating I think Svechnikov is the best kid available this draft. But I can certainly understand VOR’s caution, and have also never proposed trading Drai for the young star. Partly, well mostly, because the issue is more complicated than who has more talent.

    I don’t disagree with you and, honestly, if the deal did present itself in real life, I’m not sure I would want management to pull the trigger. The thing is, in the cap world, its not just trading players, its trading contracts and trading an $8.5M contract for a $4M contract (and probably a bit less than $4M – I would expect him to vest some but not all his bonuses).

    I’m still not saying I’d make the trade but what is the trade is made and then the cap savings is used to sign John Carlsson?

    What if we are then able to trade Klefbom for the NYI first round pick and Beaulvier?

  200. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon,

    Strome wasn’t on McDavid’s line and DeBrincat only played with McDavid in his rookie season (though not all the time). He was on both Strome’s line as well as Raddysh’s line after that.

    Galchenyuk and Yakupov unfortunately rarely played together due to injuries.

    MacKinnon and Drouin…I suppose you’d have to include Ehlers, Meier, and Frk as well. This really was just a succession of Top Talent players who happened to be present (similar to the Horvat-Domi scenario where a top player demanded to be traded to his hometown team and was able to be paired with another star(s) and form a dream team).

    Very intriguing to think they also had Voracek only a few years prior to that, too, and then Hischier a few years after.

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