Overundersidewaysdown

It goes by in the wink of an eye. One day there’s some teenager throwing on an Oilers jersey and a few years later they’re either part of the solution, part of the problem, or 10,000 miles down the road. Get good players, keep good players, the old saying goes. Talent has never been the problem, but patience comes in short supply in the wild western town of Edmonton. Also a bitch: Finding veterans who can fit with and push the young cluster forward in a complementary role. Apparently.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • Lowetide: Even in a trying season, Adam Larsson delivered solid defense.
  • Jonathan Willis: Edmonton can’t afford to enter ’18-19 with Kris Russell as top 4D.
  • Ian Tulloch: The search for a right defence upgrade (Leafs, but fits Oil)
  • Scott Wheeler: Final Draft Rankings 2018.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.

ILYA KOVALCHUK

  • Elliotte Friedman 3:31 May 11, 2018: Sounds like Edmonton checked in on Ilya Kovalchuk. Not a bad idea, actually. But it won’t happen. (Source)

Both men are trusted sources, so we’re left to wonder about the actual truth. I’m not one to rip folks who have access and who routinely deliver big news, and sometimes the info is wrong for technical reasons.

That said, Kovalchuk would be a brilliant bet depending on price. In my ‘offseason’ piece for The Athletic (here) I wrote:

  • Barring a change of heart over Aberg (and his grabbing the job on Draisaitl’s line), I think the club has to go outside the organization for the scoring winger (James Neal, James van Riemsdyk, Thomas Vanek). 

Ilya Kovalchuk would qualify. Bob and Mr. Friedman came to the same conclusion (Kovalchuk isn’t coming here) and if I had to guess there may have been a quick check via channels but who the hell knows. Kovalchuk might be McDavid’s hammer, he could score a ton of goals even in a season or two.

PROJECTED ROSTER

This is the kind of summer I’d like to see, grabbing a real straight shooter like Kovalchuk and then shoring up the bottom 6F with a couple of two-way types who can help at 5×5 and on the penalty kill. RHD? I don’t think it’s there this summer. Maybe next.

WHO IN THE WORLD IS JACOB BERNARD-DOCKER

The two final items for my Top 120 players in the 2018 draft post (coming June 1) are the European tweaks and kids from secondary leagues. I’ve been staring at a prospect named Jacob Bernard-Docker this week, he’s a fast RHD from the Okotoks Oilers of the AJHL. I had Cale Makar No. 8 in 2017 (he went No. 4) mostly because I don’t trust the league. We don’t have enough evidence to suggest impact players can come from the Alberta Junior League, although Colton Parayko is a helluva player and Makar clearly impressed scouts. Here are the AJHL numbers in draft year from recent defensemen who have played in the league:

  1. Cale Makar, 2016-17: 54gp, 24-51-76 (1.390)
  2. Jacob Bernard-Docker 2017-18: 49gp, 20-21-41 (0.837)
  3. Colton Parayko, 2011-12: 53gp, 9-33-42 (0.792)
  4. Ian Mitchell, 2016-17: 53gp, 8-29-37 (0.698)
  5. Mike Williamson, 2012-13: 23gp, 1-10-11 (0.478)
  6. Brandon Hickey, 2014-15: 49gp, 4-18-22 (0.449)
  7. Carson Soucy, 2012-13: 35gp, 5-10-15 (0.429)
  8. Matt Benning, 2011-12: 44gp, 4-14-18 (0.409)
  9. Nikolas Koberstein, 2013-14: 51gp, 5-13-18 (0.353)
  10. Rhett Holland, 2011-12: 47gp, 3-7-10 (0.213)

Bernard-Docker is a dynamic player, excellent skater with a great deal of creativity with the puck on his stick. Wes Gilbertson had a nice piece on him for the Calgary Sun in April.

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136 Responses to "Overundersidewaysdown"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****WARNING SPAM TO FOLLOW*****

    New Because Oilers:

    11 years of every team’s 5 on 5 goal share with their “best player” on and off the ice and what playoff vs non playoff teams look like.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2018/05/11-seasons-of-nhl-teams-5v5-goal-share.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  2. sliderule says:

    Some draft comparisons for Farabee.

    Brock Boeser USHL 1.2 pts /gm
    Kyle Connor. USHL 1.5 pts /gm
    Joel Farabee USHL 1.5 pts /gm

    Farabee is regarded to be very good defensively and if he gives anywere near their NHL numbers he is a steal.
    The USHL is a very underrated league .
    Do the oilers continue to ignore it?

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    Did some quick googling of Jacob Bernard-Docker and it sounds like he might not last until the 3rd round now.

    Is he good enough to take at 40?

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    sliderule:
    Some draft comparisons for Farabee.

    Brock Boeser USHL 1.2 pts /gm
    Kyle Connor.USHL 1.5 pts /gm
    Joel Farabee USHL1.5 pts /gm

    Farabee is regarded to be very good defensively and if he gives anywere near their NHL numbers he is a steal.
    The USHL is a very underrated league .
    Do the oilers continue to ignore it?

    EDM has been active in the USHL since Peter got here no?

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    A couple of thoughts about some of this week’s topics:

    Trading the 10th Overall away is stupid. The Oilers sent too many picks away in recent years, and the player this pick produces needn’t be protected in the Totems’ draft [which I don’t believe is confirmed at this point, but still].

    Trading Draisatl is stupid. Teams dream about getting CENTERS with his combo of skills & size. Also, trading him for a pick this year “kicks the can down the road”.
    Every year people get ensnared by the glowing scouting reports of these 18-year-old kids where every one shines out like a shaft of gold while all else is in darkness.

    Chasing a RHD for next season is very problematic. When you add the Assets Out in the trade with Cap Management issues, the net gain to the Oilers will be minimal. Possibly negative. Concentrate on the wingers this summer.

    Kovalchuk would’ve been perfect, but his contract a problem.

  6. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Thanks Woodguy.

    Or maybe not. I think you just ruined my mini holiday to Victoria!

    In wonder how much of this has to do with the quality of the D core and goalie through most of the years, and coaching carousel?

  7. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    A couple of thoughts about some of this week’s topics:

    Trading the 10th Overall away is stupid.The Oilers sent too many picks away in recent years, and the player this pick produces needn’t be protected in the Totems’ draft [which I don’t believe is confirmed at this point, but still].

    Trading Draisatl is stupid.Teams dream about getting CENTERS with his combo of skills & size.Also, trading for a pick this year “kicks the can down the road”.
    Every year people get ensnared by the glowing scouting reports of these 18-year-old kids where every one shines out like a shaft of gold while all else is in darkness.

    Chasing a RHD for next season is very problematic. When you add the Assets Out in the trade with Cap Management issues, the net gain to the Oilers will be minimal.Possibly negative.Concentrate on the wingers this summer.

    Kovalchuk would’ve been perfect, but his contract a problem.

    Context is necessary. Trading the pick for one on the top 2 is an absolute necessity if it’s there.

    Trading for a 20 YO high end player wouldn’t hurt.

    Everything else probably no.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LT,

    Did some quick googling of Jacob Bernard-Docker and it sounds like he might not last until the 3rd round now.

    Is he good enough to take at 40?

    I don’t know. I don’t trust the AJHL as far as I can throw it, but the verbal (and the math) like him a lot. He’ll be in my top 70 final list, I imagine, but my top rated tier two is Jack McBain and I’m not sure this guy lands above him (No. 50 overall).

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know. I don’t trust the AJHL as far as I can throw it, but the verbal (and the math) like him a lot. He’ll be in my top 70 final list, I imagine, but my top rated tier two is Jack McBain and I’m not sure this guy lands above him (No. 50 overall).

    Thanks for that

  10. sliderule says:

    Woodguy v2.0: EDM has been active in the USHL since Peter got here no?

    Yes ,but mostly later picks

    2015 Kyle Connor was staring right at them.

    I thought Barzal might not be able to score goals but Connor was there if you thought same.

    No matter oilers were going to pick Ek

  11. Snowman says:

    Hello Gang! Thought I’d pop in and see if the place has burned down in the last couple months. I’ve been lurking around reading comments as often as I can. Just going to toss out some comments and things I’ve been thinking about the last little while.

    I was pretty sure the Oilers were going to win the draft lottery so I was a little let down when they didn’t. Just had one of those feelings ya know? Anyways, I think the Oilers would be daft to trade their pick this year. I think they’re feeling the pain of not having a pipeline of prospects bubbling under and I think they’ve got to ignore the fact that their (Chia) is going to burn if they miss the playoffs.

    I am wondering if Nuge is vulnerable a bit right now (I know Chia said he was staying more or less but I’m not certain). Given my point above about keeping the pick, if you take that off the list of potential assets out, the list of valuable assets gets pretty short. Klefbom, Nuge, JP, Yamo. And I don’t really think you get that much for Yamo. I’m not sure what you’d get for JP, for example. So that leaves a LHD with a good contract and a 2nd line C/1LW with a reasonable contract. I also don’t really have any faith Chia picks around the edges. So if Chia goes looking t fix the D for the 3rd summer out of 4 he only has a couple assets I think you can build around to get it. Klef and Nuge.

    What was up with that Tavares conversation between Friedman and Stauffer yesterday? Does anyone think the Oilers would do that?

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    sliderule: Yes ,but mostly later picks

    2015 Kyle Connor was staring right at them.

    I thought Barzal might not be able to score goals but Connor was there if you thought same.

    No matter oilers were going to pick Ek

    I get what you’re pitching

  13. Wonder Llama says:

    Mr DeBakey:

    Every year people get ensnared by the glowing scouting reports of these 18-year-old kids where every one shines out like a shaft of gold while all else is in darkness.

    Your analysis is llike a stream of bat’s piss.

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Thanks Woodguy.

    Or maybe not. I think you just ruined my mini holiday to Victoria!

    In wonder how much of this has to do with the quality of the D core and goalie through most of the years, and coaching carousel?

    I think GF% is heavily dependent on Dcrops and goalie.

    I have the Rel GF% in the post for that exact reason.

  15. Munny says:

    Mr DeBakey: Trading the 10th Overall away is stupid.

    This can’t be determined on the face of the statement. It all depends on for what.

    The same pretty much applies to the next paragraph.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think GF% is heavily dependent on Dcrops and goalie.

    I have the Rel GF% in the post for that exact reason.

    Dcrops indeed. Sometimes Dcraps on tough nights.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Wonder Llama: Your analysis is llike a stream of bat’s piss.

    Both Mr. DeBakey’s original post and this response are golden.

  18. Andy Dufresne says:

    Snowman,
    “I am wondering if Nuge is vulnerable a bit right now (I know Chia said he was staying more or less but I’m not certain). Given my point above about keeping the pick, if you take that off the list of potential assets out, the list of valuable assets gets pretty short. Klefbom, Nuge, JP, Yamo.”
    .
    .
    .

    Fire up the Nuge rumours again. Trade at peak value.

    Nuge and the 10th to Montreal for the 3rd and Pacioretty.

    Montreal gets 2 centers out of the deal. Nuge + (Barret Hayton, Joe Veleno, or Jesperi Kotkaniemi)

    Oilers get Zadina on the RW and Patches on the left.
    .

    Pacioretty will score at a rate equal to or greater than RNH on the LW. Saves $1.5 million on cap.
    .

    RW goes from a virtual wasteland to an area of strength within 2 seasons.

    Zadina
    JP
    Yamamoto

  19. dustrock says:

    I’ve got a lot of time for Farabee. He’d be an excellent pick at #10.

    Just mentioning Adam Larsson was Man of the Match for the Swedes today. Lot of positive comments on his play, even from non-Oilers fans. Glad to see he’s getting back to normal after a crazy year.

  20. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think GF% is heavily dependent on Dcrops and goalie.

    I have the Rel GF% in the post for that exact reason.

    Do you have current RHD targets? I’m thinking stand pat and hope for health ATM. Outside of large deals that can set a core group completely forward and D.

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide: Both Mr. DeBakey’s original post and this response are golden.

    Sure….Shower him with praise

  22. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bonus:

    Decade of Darkness in line graph form!

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/995304760801509376

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/995311600771874816

    This did not help the hangover… that is truly ugly… small amounts of vomit ugly…

  23. Munny says:

    Lowetide: Both Mr. DeBakey’s original post and this response are golden.

    Pure stream of consciousness.

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny,

    Re: Barkov QoC

    We have WoodMonies from the last 3 years:

    17/18 – 22 year old season
    Elite 50%
    Middle 29%
    Gritensity 21%

    Its very rare for a F to be as high as 50% vs Elite Forwards. That’s some of the toughest minutes in the NHL so your eye was right.

    16/17 – 21 year old season
    Elite 33%
    Middle 42%
    Gritensity 35%

    This is very typical of high 2nd line, low 1st line comp splits. Maybe they sheltered him a bit to start when he got back from injury?

    15/16 – 20 year old season
    Elite 37%
    Middle 38%
    Gritensity 35%

    This is typical 1st line comp.

    So it looks like Barkov was playing toughest comp at 20 years old.

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    “Chasing a RHD for next season is very problematic. When you add the Assets Out in the trade with Cap Management issues, the net gain to the Oilers will be minimal.Possibly negative.Concentrate on the wingers this summer.”
    .
    .

    While this may be true………The Oilers have made it known that a scoring RHD is a priority this summer.

    Its going to happen so the question has to be “how and who”

    I cant escape/get away from an intiution that one of two scenarios have the highest probability

    1) Keep Klefbom Under this scenario you target someone who costs the #10pick
    ……#10 + for Faulk
    ……#10 for Severson…………….etc

    or

    2) Trade Klefbom Return a higher end RHD
    …..Klefbom (+) for OEL, Barrie, Ryan Ellis….etc

    Pick your poison.

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Do you have current RHD targets? I’m thinking stand pat and hope for health ATM. Outside of large deals that can set a core group completely forward and D.

    The list that Ian Tulloch put together for TOR is pretty good. LT links to it at the top of his post.

    Here is part 1: https://theathletic.com/347615/2018/05/09/the-maple-leafs-search-for-a-right-defence-upgrade-part-1-the-big-ticket-and-shutdown-options/

    Here is part 2: https://theathletic.com/348157/2018/05/10/the-maple-leafs-search-for-a-right-defence-upgrade-part-2-the-defensive-d-men-puck-movers-and-wildcards/?redirected=1

    I think EDM needs to be shopping in the part 2 section.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Do you have current RHD targets? I’m thinking stand pat and hope for health ATM. Outside of large deals that can set a core group completely forward and D.

    I posted this here on April 21st:

    http://lowetide.ca/2018/04/21/strawberry-moon/#comment-737269

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Dcrops indeed. Sometimes Dcraps on tough nights.

    McCurdy prefers Dcorpse during those games, but we will also accept Dcraps

  29. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    What were his zone starts against tough comp in his 20 yr old season?

    Also, what are the error bars on those numbers?

    Middle comp, btw, according to your numbers was his most common opponent at 20.

  30. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    From part two:

    Note the dynamic in play here relative to the strengths/weaknesses of the Toronto roster.

    “The game is certainly changing. Defencemen who can move the puck up the ice and spend more time in the offensive zone are much more valuable than hard-hitters who block lots of shots. At the same time, Toronto really struggles in areas where Faulk, Barrie, or Severson wouldn’t provide much help. The way I see it, they would fill a need (RHD), but they wouldn’t fill the need (shot suppressing RHD who can PK).”

    The point…..Toronto has no Larsson….They have plenty of Faulk, Barrie, Severson types.
    The real value of a Faulk, Barrie, Severson types is to a team like Edmonton who already has Shot Surpressing D….Larsson and Russell (and Nurse?)

    Also note the cost for a Faulk, Barrie

    “The price:

    To pry away Barrie or Faulk, the Leafs would probably have to give up something most fans wouldn’t want them to lose (ie. Marner, Nylander, Kadri, or Liljegren). In theory, they could offer Carolina a package that includes Kapanen, Brown, the 25th overall pick, and whichever goaltender they value more between Sparks or McElhinney, but I’m not sure if that gets it done.”

  31. Andy Dufresne says:

    FAULK HAS HIS WEAKNESSES as his Analytics Stats Pack shows us but to keep things in perspective

    Heres how I think MANY GMs view Faulk (and his situation in Carolina this year)

    ” Faulk is usually number one in ice time on his team, and gets that assignment more than your league-average defenceman. But he plays against all competition relatively equally, once you adjust for the fact that a number one on the other team gets more time on ice than the number six, and therefore would naturally compete against Faulk more.

    He’s primarily been paired with the rookie Haydn Fleury and Noah Hanifin about evenly this year. He did have a temporary partnership with Jaccob Slavin, but it was fairly short-lived.

    The emergence of Slavin, in addition to Brett Pesce and Trevor van Riemsdyk has led to Faulk not being used much on the penalty kill. However, on the power play he mans the top unit as the lone defender in a 1-3-1 system for the Hurricanes. With double digit goal totals in three consecutive seasons before this one, he’s a consistent goal producer”

    EDIT: TO BE CLEAR….Im not recommending/advocating a trade for Faulk…just trying to represent what GMs might percieve his value to be.

  32. LadiesloveSmid says:

    sliderule:
    Some draft comparisons for Farabee.

    Brock Boeser USHL 1.2 pts /gm
    Kyle Connor.USHL 1.5 pts /gm
    Joel Farabee USHL1.5 pts /gm

    Farabee is regarded to be very good defensively and if he gives anywere near their NHL numbers he is a steal.
    The USHL is a very underrated league .
    Do the oilers continue to ignore it?

    Farabee plays with Hughes and Wahlstrom. His numbers are probably comparable to Jack Roslovic, who scored over 1.5P/G playing with Matthews and Tkachuk.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    What were his zone starts against tough comp in his 20 yr old season?

    Also, what are the error bars on those numbers?

    Middle comp, btw, according to your numbers was his most common opponent at 20.

    Don’t have ZS for 15/16. That said, they usually reflect their overall ZS fairly close and Barkov was 27% OZS that year.

    Re: Error bars – you’d have to ask G (I’ll ask him), but we didn’t create a new metric here.

    We binned NHL players in Elite, Middle and Gritensity and simply counted up the TOI vs each bin.

    The methodology is here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    re: Middle Comp – its usually the highest % for everyone as they make up the majority of NHL player (~65% of players)

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would have to pencil in Kovalchuk to play with Drai and Rattie with McDavid.

    While Rattie looks like he could score at a value contract rate with Connor, are we confident he could do that with Leon?

    I’m quite certain Kovalchuk would score many goals with Leon.

    If we are looking for a top 6 winger, it should be for Leon, not for Connor.

  35. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Dude, you guys need an actual methodology page, ie the short version, lol. Work keeps interrupting like every second paragraph. AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SECOND PARAGRAPĤS, lol.

    I don’t really want to get into issues with the methodology, You know how I feel about our lack of QUALCOMP stats, from all my bitching over the years. (My prior avatar was spOILer) So any attempt to resolve that issue is going to have my support. My understanding though, is you don’t have the D binned?

    If that’s the case i will stick by my eye for his 20 yr old season… some of everything. Last year your numbers show it was pretty clear he was getting used hard, and that really was the context we were trying to establish. I don’t think it is anywhere near as clear in the other years’ numbers.

  36. Oilman99 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    A couple of thoughts about some of this week’s topics:

    Trading the 10th Overall away is stupid.The Oilers sent too many picks away in recent years, and the player this pick produces needn’t be protected in the Totems’ draft [which I don’t believe is confirmed at this point, but still].

    Trading Draisatl is stupid.Teams dream about getting CENTERS with his combo of skills & size.Also, trading him for a pick this year “kicks the can down the road”.
    Every year people get ensnared by the glowing scouting reports of these 18-year-old kids where every one shines out like a shaft of gold while all else is in darkness.

    Chasing a RHD for next season is very problematic. When you add the Assets Out in the trade with Cap Management issues, the net gain to the Oilers will be minimal.Possibly negative.Concentrate on the wingers this summer.

    Kovalchuk would’ve been perfect, but his contract a problem.

    Exactly, the Oilers need much more than one 35year old overpay to right the ship. They need two to three NHL caliber wingers to become competetive, and patch all the holes up front.

  37. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wow. Nice insights. Thank you.

    Would you conclude/suggest that there “may be” evidence that the data suggests that the best way to construct a roster in the cap era is to not have a superstar or superstars on the roster. But rather to have an “extremely well balanced” roster.

    Las Vegas Golden Nights, Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets

    vs

    Pittsburgh Peguins (Crosby Malkin), Edmonton Oilers (Conner, Leon), Montreal Canadiens(Price, Webber)

    Edit: Im not saying the data clearly supports that proposition…but does it as least hint at it or point in that direction??

  38. Andy Dufresne says:

    James Mirtle at the Athletic: “Over the last four years, as more and more teams have chased a puck possession game (and the league has adjusted the rule book), a few key trends have emerged in the game:

    1. Fewer enforcers and more skilled players on fourth lines
    2. Younger, faster players in general
    3. A push to target higher scoring areas on the ice
    4. A dramatic shift to using only one defenceman on power plays”
    .
    .

    This is the template Chiarelli is moving towards (although a year or two late and a dollar short..(too focused on puck possession))

    There is no way we get through this summer without Chiarelli adding a Scoring RHD.

  39. Munny says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    It could be claimed that the Kaniggits have a star in net. I think many people too highly rate Bergeron.

  40. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: If we are looking for a top 6 winger, it should be for Leon, not for Connor.

    I think this is the play too. Or at least the way I have been thinking about the roster.

    Now that CMD has learned he can, and should, shoot, I feel comfortable with Nuge being his star winger.

    Need the same for Leon.

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    Analytics in relation to Coach TMac….IMO….

    James Mirtle at The Athletic points out:

    “To date, it appears most of the advances in analytics in hockey have been on the offensive side of the puck. How to generate better zone exits and zone entries. How to generate better chances on the man advantage. How to produce more shot attempts, shots on goal and scoring chances.”

    I think TMac is/was strong in this regard.

    Where he has been stubborn has been on his over-reliance on defensive minded forwards (Pakarinen, Letestu, etc) Which is very “tradiational” in the NHL…..Its why we have the Selke Trophy.

    TMac should also get some credit for buying into the Anayltics proposition that as Mirtle states “there’s been a higher premium placed on good possession players, who often tend to be generators rather than suppressors.”

    IMO….Where TMac has failed to change with the times

    is that he is still stuck too heavily in the possesion mentallity that demands such a high degree of structure and defensive responsibility that it is counter-productive to what Mirtle describes as “the combined benefit of more skilled fourth lines, more puck-oriented blueliners and faster players”…………” The skill premium that analytics are demanding in hockey outweigh the deny factor — so far.”

    Where does TMac need to go and can he adapt??

    In the words of Mirtle…”It could well be that the ultimate conclusion of data analysis in a game as random as hockey is that creating as much chaos in scoring areas as possible is the way to go. (Most of it leads to being) more aggressive on the attack and less concerned about mistakes, which seems like more fun,” one exec wrote. “My guess is that things move towards risk taking.”

    “For now, however, the game’s statistical evolution has taken it to a fairly good place. The players are more skilled. The pace of play is faster. The number of highlight-reel plays are up.”

    I can see Chiarelli evolving to face these new realities (although a day late and a dollar short). I pray/hope that TMac can do the same. (his current coaching style seems HEAVILY skewed towards the elimination of mistakes…he mentions it frequently)

    Edit: to be clear….Mirtle was not directly referencing TMac. Mirtle is referencing the state of the modern game…I am cross-referencing/transposing his remarks in relation to TMac.

  42. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny:
    Andy Dufresne,

    It could be claimed that the Kaniggits have a star in net. I think many people too highly rate Bergeron.

    Yes. But at $5.75m AVV he (Fluery) more fits the bill as a value contract on a well rounded team. His %of cap is in line with the non-superstar. Same goes for Bergeron at $6.875m AVV

  43. Munny says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    ???

    So McDavid on his ELC was not a superstar?

    There is no talk of being relative to the cap as a determining factor in your original post.

    *replants goalposts*

  44. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny:
    Andy Dufresne,

    ???

    So McDavid on his ELC was not a superstar?

    There is no talk of being relative to the cap as a determining factor in your original post.

    *replants goalposts*

    Actually there was…..I said in a cap era…..

    So the premise is one or more (typically two) high paid players on a roster…..at the expense of a more well balanced roster.

    But Im ok with the idea that the goalposts have been replanted for the sake of the conversation. no worries.

    “So McDavid on his ELC was not a superstar?”

    Same principle…..Not a highly paid one. (which he becomes next year)

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wow. Nice insights. Thank you.

    Would you conclude/suggest that there “may be” evidence that the data suggests that the best way to construct a roster in the cap era is to not have a superstar or superstars on the roster. But rather to have an “extremely well balanced” roster.

    Las Vegas Golden Nights, Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets

    vs

    Pittsburgh Peguins (Crosby Malkin), Edmonton Oilers (Conner, Leon), Montreal Canadiens(Price, Webber)

    Edit: Im not saying the data clearly supports that proposition…but does it as least hint at it or point in that direction??

    I think you might be under-valuing some of the players on those teams.

    Yes, of course, McDavid, Crosby, Malkin are on a generational level but I would suggest that the following are all superstars or very close (and at least in line with the Draisaitl level):

    – Marchand, Bergeron
    – Shieffle, Wheeler, Laine

    While no “generational player”, I would suggest the Bruins and Jets have star power and are not the same as the Knights in that regard.

  46. Richard S.S. says:

    Adam Larsson handles the toughest opponents and the elite opposition well, logging major minutes. That’s definitely first pairing requirements, but not a #1 D. He has offense, but he rarely brings it all. Can he bring it with a better partner, I don’t know. How does he do with OEL, who is a #1 D?

    Oscar Klefbom pairs well with Adam Larsson, making them a quality #1 Pairing. His offense can be quite good, but when it is, his defense is not as good as it should be. When defense is very good, his offense could be better. He also has an issue with staying healthy all season. Do the Oilers deserve an upgrade here? I think so.

    Andrej Sekera was arguably the Oilers’ best Defender in the Oilers ‘ playoff year. Unfortunate injury aside, I believe he’s still a top quality defender, who needs a good/better partner. Perhaps a pucking-moving RHD?

  47. Munny says:

    Andy Dufresne: Actually there was…..I said in a cap era….

    With respect to roster construction, not with respect to determining who is a superstar. It is such a unique attribute to apply to stardom, one would need to explicitly state this criterion, one would think…

    I stand by my statement:

    There is no talk of being relative to the cap as a determining factor [of stardom] in your original post.

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Munny,

    Re: Barkov QoC

    We have WoodMonies from the last 3 years:

    17/18 – 22 year old season
    Elite50%
    Middle29%
    Gritensity21%

    Its very rare for a F to be as high as 50% vs Elite Forwards.That’s some of the toughest minutes in the NHL so your eye was right.

    16/17 – 21 year old season
    Elite33%
    Middle42%
    Gritensity35%

    This is very typical of high 2nd line, low 1st line comp splits.Maybe they sheltered him a bit to start when he got back from injury?

    15/16 – 20 year old season
    Elite37%
    Middle38%
    Gritensity35%

    This is typical 1st line comp.

    So it looks like Barkov was playing toughest comp at 20 years old.

    Wow, looks like Barkov really gave Florida 110% in his 20-year-old season. Unbelievable!

  49. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think you might be under-valuing some of the players on those teams.

    Yes, of course, McDavid, Crosby, Malkin are on a generational level but I would suggest that the following are all superstars or very close (and at least in line with the Draisaitl level):

    – Marchand, Bergeron
    – Shieffle, Wheeler, Laine

    While no “generational player”, I would suggest the Bruins and Jets have star power and are not the same as the Knights in that regard.

    Yeah. Im more referencing teams that are paying two guys 9million or more. Or as Munny rightly points out two guys that are taking a disproportionate percentage of cap. I dont know what the exact line would be 20% 25% ? Its also obviously time/era senstive.

    Examples

    Draisaitl 11.33% McDavid 16.67%

    Kane 15.22% Towes 15.22%

    Malkin 14.7% Crosby14.5%

  50. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    FAULK HAS HIS WEAKNESSES as his Analytics Stats Pack shows us but to keep things in perspective

    Heres how I think MANY GMs view Faulk (and his situation in Carolina this year)

    ” Faulk is usually number one in ice time on his team, and gets that assignment more than your league-average defenceman. But he plays against all competition relatively equally, once you adjust for the fact that a number one on the other team gets more time on ice than the number six, and therefore would naturally compete against Faulk more.

    He’s primarily been paired with the rookie Haydn Fleury and Noah Hanifin about evenly this year. He did have a temporary partnership with Jaccob Slavin, but it was fairly short-lived.

    The emergence of Slavin, in addition to Brett Pesce and Trevor van Riemsdyk has led to Faulk not being used much on the penalty kill. However, on the power play he mans the top unit as the lone defender in a 1-3-1 system for the Hurricanes. With double digit goal totals in three consecutive seasons before this one, he’s a consistent goal producer”

    EDIT:TO BE CLEAR….Im not recommending/advocating a trade for Faulk…just trying to represent what GMs might percieve his value to be.

    I’m not sure who you’re quoting, but most of that is bullshit. Several of us debunked that statement when you posted it before so you know it’s bullshit; why are you re-posting it?

  51. Andy Dufresne says:

    Munny,

    Fair. No worries. Im really trying to keep it simple. Two players who take up a disproportional % of the teams cap (whether they are super- stars or not) where disprotportional is defined as significanlty prohibiting a more balanced roster …..feel free to define what that number is or should be 20% 25% more? less?

    Example 2018-19 Carrie Price 14% is he a star? super-star? generational? dont know and dont care for purposes of the conversation…..hes a guy who takes up 14% of the teams cap. Shea Weber 13%

    So you are correctly pointing out that what I/we call them is not relevant.

  52. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Im posting it to point out that Faulk has a much different value as stated by several well respected well researched sources across the media landscape than what his value is projected as in this forum.

    No more. No less.

    My point is that there is more than one way to evaluate the worth of a player. And if your evaluation varies in a “significant” measure from multiple credible sources, it might be wise to re-consider your evaluation. (not saying “change” your evaluation)

    This is true of every player…..not just Justin Faulk.

    Go read The Athletic article that Woodguy references if you have access. Its not my assessment. Its Ian Tullochs assessment and he does a hell of a job. Not just on Faulk but on a dozen or so options that are relevant to the Oilers. He does it based on Analytics in a heirarchical structure.

    Or not…..its a free world.

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    From part two:

    Note the dynamic in play here relative to the strengths/weaknesses of the Toronto roster.

    “The game is certainly changing. Defencemen who can move the puck up the ice and spend more time in the offensive zone are much more valuable than hard-hitters who block lots of shots. At the same time, Toronto really struggles in areas where Faulk, Barrie, or Severson wouldn’t provide much help. The way I see it, they would fill a need (RHD), but they wouldn’t fill the need (shot suppressing RHD who can PK).”

    The point…..Toronto has no Larsson….They have plenty of Faulk, Barrie, Severson types.
    The real value of a Faulk, Barrie, Severson types is to a team like Edmonton who already has Shot Surpressing D….Larsson and Russell (and Nurse?)

    Also note the cost for a Faulk, Barrie

    “The price:

    To pry away Barrie or Faulk, the Leafs would probably have to give up something most fans wouldn’t want them to lose (ie. Marner, Nylander, Kadri, or Liljegren). In theory, they could offer Carolina a package that includes Kapanen, Brown, the 25th overall pick, and whichever goaltender they value more between Sparks or McElhinney, but I’m not sure if that gets it done.”

    I am on record saying that Tanev (Larsson type) would be the best fit for EDM as well and not a Barrie type.

    That said, I just like Dmen who push the Goal Share in the right direction, regardless of style.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Dude, you guys need an actual methodology page, ie the short version, lol.Work keeps interrupting like every second paragraph. AND THERE ARE A LOT OF SECOND PARAGRAPĤS, lol.

    I don’t really want to get into issues with the methodology,You know how I feel about our lack of QUALCOMP stats, from all my bitching over the years.(My prior avatar was spOILer)So any attempt to resolve that issue is going to have my support. My understanding though, is you don’t have the D binned?

    If that’s the case i will stick by my eye for his 20 yr old season… some of everything.Last year your numbers show it was pretty clear he was getting used hard, and that really was the context we were trying to establish. I don’t think it is anywhere near as clear in the other years’ numbers.

    There will be a methodology page on the new site if we ever get one up.

    As for the Dcorps, deciding which are elite is very tough as their job is different than Forwards.

    Some of the issues are”

    Some truly elite Dmen don’t score much.

    Dmen spend a ton of time with one line mate, how to you separate their value and not fuck it up?

    Its something we plan on re-visiting.

    For context maybe surf puckiq.com

    It has every players’ numbers for last year and you can get a feel for what different type of players see in terms of comp.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wow. Nice insights. Thank you.

    Would you conclude/suggest that there “may be” evidence that the data suggests that the best way to construct a roster in the cap era is to not have a superstar or superstars on the roster. But rather to have an “extremely well balanced” roster.

    Las Vegas Golden Nights, Boston Bruins, Winnipeg Jets

    vs

    Pittsburgh Peguins (Crosby Malkin), Edmonton Oilers (Conner, Leon), Montreal Canadiens(Price, Webber)

    Edit: Im not saying the data clearly supports that proposition…but does it as least hint at it or point in that direction??

    The best teams have one or two elite players driving the results and depth of Actual NHL players not playing above their Established NHL Ability.

    They also usually have 4 Actual Top 4 Dmen, but PIT didn’t, but they were loaded up top so there are no hard and fast rules, but more rules of thumb.

    BOS has Marchand, Bergeron and Chara. Those are truly elite players.

    WPG has Scheifile, Wheeler and Byfuglien, also elite. Trouba isn’t far behind and neither are Morrisey, Connor, Elhers and while Little isn’t Elite, he’s high end.

    VGK are the best example of depth, but they had the best SV% goalie in the NHL this year and I’m not sure how much of that to attribute to their results, but I know its a lot.

  56. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I am on record saying that Tanev (Larsson type) would be the best fit for EDM as well and nota Barrie type.

    That said, I just like Dmen who push the Goal Share in the right direction, regardless of style.

    I hear you. And I must say that it took me a while to get your point on Tanev. I was too focused on the stated objective of the Organiztion with the hard target being a Point Scoring RHD and Powerplay Quarterback.

    I think you make a good case that there is/may be more value to constructing a better defense that includes Larsson,Tanev, Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Benning than chasing after a cost prohibitive 2RHD.

    Tanev is not a PP Quarterback and I beleive the Org had two high priority objectives going into the summer

    1) Upgrade Goaltending action taken
    2) Fix/Uprade Special Teams

    I think the Org beleives that better goaltending and better special teams get them back into the playoffs.

    I think they beleive that means a PP Point Man (they have stated as much) and new assistant coaches.

    All things considered ( Klefbom potential, Bear futures) I think I might prefer your route…an overall upgrade to defense with Tanev. That such an upgrade, with a healthy Klef and Sek and improved goaltending would get us into the playoffs and be better for the team in the long term. I dont think the Org sees it that way.

    Given that they dont see it that way….my hard target would be Ryan Ellis…..kinda try and have/hope for the best of both worlds.

  57. Seismic Source says:

    Minnesota is up against it with the cap. Little money coming off the books and Dumba and Zucker to resign.

    That team would be my hard target if the 10th is really in play. They have multiple perfect fit candidates.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    is that he is still stuck too heavily in the possesion mentallity that demands such a high degree of structure and defensive responsibility that it is counter-productive to what Mirtle describes as “the combined benefit of more skilled fourth lines, more puck-oriented blueliners and faster players”…………” The skill premium that analytics are demanding in hockey outweigh the deny factor — so far.”

    I wouldn’t go that far.

    One of the reasons that WPG is so successful is their high pressure forecheck which involves the Dmen to a high degree.

    They pressure the puck everywhere, but especially at the opposing blue line to keep shifts in the ozone going and their own blue line to keep shifts in their own zone from happening.

    The Dmen constantly step up in both spots.

    The key to that system is the fowards, especially the F3 in the ozone, playing high in the ozone and being ready to cover for the Dman.

    They also rely on the forwards to be strong on the back check to cover for the Dmen when they step up at the blue line.

    There was one sequence in game 7 vs NSH where it was a 2 on 2 for NSH and both WPG players were actually forwards because both Dmen stepped up in the ozone to try to keep the puck there.

    Very, very structured defence that relies on the forwards being aware and skating back.

    Its pretty much the same system that Eakins tried to implement here and laughed at for.

    It works and works well, but the team needs to buy in, no one can slack or sleep in that system or else it falls apart quickly and becomes the 2 on 1 festival that we saw in Edmonton.

  59. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thank you, sir.

  60. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The best teams have one or two superstars driving the results and depth of Actual NHL players not playing above their Established NHL Ability.

    They also usually have 4 Actual Top 4 Dmen, but PIT didn’t, but they were loaded up top so there are no hard and fast rules, but more rules of thumb.

    BOS has Marchand, Bergeron and Chara.Those are truly elite players.

    WPG has Scheifile, Wheeler and Byfuglien, also elite.Trouba isn’t far behind and neither are Morrisey, Connor, Elhers and while Little isn’t Elite, he’s high end.

    VGK are the best example of depth, but they had the best SV% goalie in the NHL this year and I’m not sure how much of that to attribute to their results, but I know its a lot.

    Again….not with anything approaching 100% confidence levels…this implies to me that among all the other neccessities (draft and develop, dont over-pay in $ or term, make better deals in the trade market, etc) the formula for success is somewhat contingent on a cap window where your elite players reach an age (peak performance) at a time when thier contracts shrink percentage wise in relation to a rising cap.

    This would suggest that McDavid, Draisailt, combined with good drafting, good player procurement and TIME…..is a/the winning formula. Which seems completely obvious on one level….but is somewhat obscured/made foggy by the Chicgao roster in one way and the Vegas roster in another.

  61. Munny says:

    I think it is very dangerous to take one playoffs and say what works against what. Especially in a close series.

    For eg. Nash could’ve beat the Peg with better goalering.

    The Playoffs are another example of Tournaments of Small Sample Size.

    That said, I love the way Vegas plays. It’s Man D and not Zone… a choice for which TMac has been criticized.

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny,

    Here’s G on the error bars:

    The error bars on the TOI% is for all intents negligible – they are calculated off the shift charts provided by the NHL, and the error to the extent that it exists will reflect any errors in the shift charts. How wide are those? Non zero, but likely a wash in the long run. More reliable than shot metrics! Errors for any given player beyond that probably amount to a few seconds per game at most (based on different ways of calculating shift timings.

    The real need for error bars and variance as you know is in comparing across the bins. I like Bayesian credible intervals for those, but traditional confidence intervals will work as well. Just recognizing that there are error bars

  63. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “They pressure the puck everywhere, but especially at the opposing blue line to keep shifts in the ozone going and their own blue line to keep shifts in their own zone from happening.

    The Dmen constantly step up in both spots.”

    Same as VGS.

    I Would like to see Edm play this style. With the new obstruction rules (slashing), once a team gets the puck it is very hard to get it back so every time you let the puck come out of the offensive zone you might be chasing it for 30 to 45 seconds or is if you can make a good pinch you can keep it in their end for an extra 30 to 45 seconds. Doing that 3 or 4 times a period. Makes all the difference in the world.

    I am not sure if T-Mac knows how to implement that system properly and or if we have the correct players to play that type of system.

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Wow, looks like Barkov really gave Florida 110% in his 20-year-old season. Unbelievable!

    Goddamn it!!

    Good catch.

    That’s the problem when you don’t cut n paste, but are transposing by eye.

    I blame my phone.

    Barkov 15/16
    Elite 37%
    Middle 38%
    Gritensity 25%

  65. jtblack says:

    I believe this is also why less teams are just flicking the puck off the glass and outer flipping it out like russell, gryba or Larson perhaps because all you’re really doing is giving up possession and again against a good team it’s very hard to get the puck back

  66. Richard S.S. says:

    Las Vegas doesn’t have a true #1 line, but they have three quite good #2 lines and a good #3 line. The Defense is lacking a true #1 defender, but they have a lot of quality #2s and #3. The starting Goalie was supposed to be good enough, just not this amazing.

    The Oilers have an all-world superstar, an amazing #2 and a very good #3. Nothing else comes close. With the right acquisition(s) the Oilers’ D could be very good to special. As long as the Starting Goalie doesn’t have to play every game he could be very good and even exceptional.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think you might be under-valuing some of the players on those teams.

    Yes, of course, McDavid, Crosby, Malkin are on a generational level but I would suggest that the following are all superstars or very close (and at least in line with the Draisaitl level):

    – Marchand, Bergeron
    – Shieffle, Wheeler, Laine

    While no “generational player”, I would suggest the Bruins and Jets have star power and are not the same as the Knights in that regard.

    Laine is still young and a bit of drag 5v5.

    Killer PP shot.

    I think JP will turn out to be the better 5v5 GF% guy (Laine will be no slouch though) but Laine will score a ton due to his shot, especially on the PP.

  68. jtblack says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Las Vegas doesn’t have a true #1 line, but they have three quite good #2 lines and a good #3 line.The Defense is lacking a true #1 defender, but they have a lot of quality #2s and #3.The starting Goalie was supposed to be good enough, just not this amazing.

    The Oilers have an all-world superstar, an amazing #2 and a very good #3.Nothing else comes close.With the right acquisition(s) the Oilers’ D could be very good to special.As long as the Starting Goalie doesn’t have to play every game he could be very good and even exceptional.

    Las Vegas has one of the best number one lines in the league. Karlsson Mashhy & Reilly are ELITE by all metrics

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I hear you. And I must say that it took me a while to get your point on Tanev. I was too focused on the stated objective of the Organiztion with the hard target being a Point Scoring RHD and Powerplay Quarterback.

    I think you make a good case that there is/may be more value to constructing a better defense that includes Larsson,Tanev, Klefbom, Sekera, Nurse, Benningthan chasing after a cost prohibitive 2RHD.

    Tanev is not a PP Quarterback and I beleive the Org had two high priority objectives going into the summer

    1) Upgrade Goaltending action taken
    2) Fix/Uprade Special Teams

    I think the Org beleives that better goaltending and better special teams get them back into the playoffs.

    I think they beleive that means a PP Point Man (they have stated as much) and new assistant coaches.

    All things considered( Klefbom potential, Bear futures) I think I might prefer your route…an overall upgrade to defense with Tanev. That such an upgrade, with a healthy Klef and Sek and improved goaltending would get us into the playoffs and be better for the team in the long term.I dont think the Org sees it that way.

    Given that they dont see it that way….my hard target would be Ryan Ellis…..kinda try and have/hope forthe best of both worlds.

    The fact that the org has stated they need a PP QB is bad.

    They don’t.

    They might end up chasing a point accumulator like Faulk and really fuck it up due to cap, acquisition cost and his drag on 5v5 goal share.

    EDM had the best PP in the NHL from Dec 2016-April 2017 with Klef on it.

    They’re fine in terms of personnel.

    They could use a RH distributor, but they never try Benning there either (on PP1) and should.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Again….not with anything approaching 100% confidence levels…this implies to me that among all the other neccessities (draft and develop, dont over-pay in $ or term, make better deals in the trade market, etc) the formula for success is somewhat contingent on a cap window where your elite players reach an age (peak performance) at a time when thier contracts shrink percentage wise in relation to a rising cap.

    This would suggest that McDavid, Draisailt, combined with good drafting, good player procurement and TIME…..is a/the winning formula.Which seems completely obvious on one level….but is somewhat obscured/made foggy by the Chicgao roster in one way and the Vegas roster in another.

    CHI had Kane, Toews, Hossa, Keith – 4 elite players. Two of them had cap hits that were not commensurate with their value due to being old tailing contracts.

    They also had Sharp, Seabrook, Hjarlmasson and a very under rated Crawford.

    Their problem is that time came for them.

    Only Kane’s results last year could be considered elite.

    Not sure if Keith regains form, but Hossa is gone, Toews feel off the cliff 2 years ago (could come back, but hasn’t) Seabrook is older, Hjarlm is older and gone.

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “They pressure the puck everywhere, but especially at the opposing blue line to keep shifts in the ozone going and their own blue line to keep shifts in their own zone from happening.

    The Dmen constantly step up in both spots.”

    Same as VGS.

    I Would like to see Edm play this style.With the new obstruction rules (slashing), once a team gets the puck it is very hard to get it back so every time you let the puck come out of the offensive zone you might be chasing it for 30 to 45 seconds or is if you can make a good pinch you can keep it in their end for an extra 30 to 45 seconds. Doing that 3 or 4 times a period. Makes all the difference in the world.

    I am not sure if T-Mac knows how to implement that system properly and or if we have the correct players to play that type of system.

    I think they tried to, but only RNH was decent at it.

    97 and 29’s play without the puck is still very “young” and a number of their forwards don’t skate fast enough to be able to cover effectively.

  72. PhrankLee says:

    Snowman: I am wondering if Nuge is vulnerable a bit right now (I know Chia said he was staying more or less but I’m not certain). Given my point above about keeping the pick, if you take that off the list of potential assets out, the list of valuable assets gets pretty short.

    I was wondering the same thing looking at a 25 yr old career C producing .77/ppg under control and signed at a fair amount. We’d never trade a guy like that, right? /s

    I am terrified of just who’s hand may be on the wheel in the top floor offices.

  73. jtblack says:

    CHICAGO & PITT got their 3 Cups. Time in contracts and the regular cycle of elite players catches up to every team.

    Edmonton is in a weird spot because they obviously don’t have a cup yet and nothing the point to winning one in the near future. Due to the debacle of the Reinhardt trade and possibly the Hall trade, I think realistically we’re looking at 3 to 6 years out before we can compete for a cup.

    McDavid is so good that you would think it’s inevitable but this is now a 31 Team league. This ain’t Grandpa’s NHL anymore

  74. Todd Macallan says:

    Who would’ve thought Team Canada’s goalies may single handedly cost them two important round robin games (and counting)? Oh yeah, everyone did.

    It’s Mike Dipietro time! Hold on to your butts.

  75. jtblack says:

    Can ethan Bear be our puck moving RHD. I know he need some work on the defensive side but he seemed to be great at first passes and definitely has a good shot from the point.

    Larsson
    Benning
    Bear

    ???? Benning is probably playing too high in that role. But I think bear could play the three hole RHD

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Goddamn it!!

    Good catch.

    That’s the problem when you don’t cut n paste, but are transposing by eye.

    I blame my phone.

    Barkov 15/16
    Elite 37%
    Middle 38%
    Gritensity 25%

    Those are good numbers also.

  77. jtblack says:

    Say Edmonton does very little this summer.

    Do to basic regression to the positive; less injury trouble on defense , & some better goalering from Talbott and the new backup should they not compete for a playoff spot as is???

    So if Peter can just add a few solid veterans maybe one veteran right dman and one veteran Winger we should be damn close and will not have given up any assets

  78. jtblack says:

    Also, I would.like to see this from Day 1 in training camp.
    1C – MCDAVID
    2C – LEON
    3C – STROME

    The coaching staff can mess around with the Wingers to try and find chemistry but they should leave those three in their spots and let them learn how to deliver value for their role.

    We already know McDavid will deliver as 1 C and I believe the other two can deliver in their roles if they’re given some consistency from the coaching staff

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Can ethan Bear be our puck moving RHD.I know he need some work on the defensive side but he seemed to be great at first passes and definitely has a good shot from the point.

    Larsson
    Benning
    Bear

    ???? Benning is probably playing too high in that role. But I think bear could play the three hole RHD

    Bear isn’t ready for the NHL.

    His results last year were hideous defensively.

    That’s ok, he’s young, but he should be no where near the NHL next year.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Say Edmonton does very little this summer.

    Do to basic regression to the positive; less injury trouble on defense ,& some better goalering from Talbott and the new backup should they not compete for a playoff spot as is???

    So if Peter can just add a few solid veterans maybe one veteran right dman and one veteran Winger we should be damn close and will not have given up any assets

    If health holds for 97, 29, 93, 77, 6, 25, 33 and 2 is the 2 of old then they should be in the mix for a playoff spot or challenge for the lead in the weak, weak Pacific if things go really right.

  81. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack:
    Can ethan Bear be our puck moving RHD.I know he need some work on the defensive side but he seemed to be great at first passes and definitely has a good shot from the point.

    Larsson
    Benning
    Bear

    ???? Benning is probably playing too high in that role. But I think bear could play the three hole RHD

    Honestly I don’t think Bear is ready yet. The only way I could see this working is if he had a strong veteran partner (Sekera), 70% OZ starts (like Sergachev) and never saw top comp. Seeing as how TMac likes to roll his lines and pairings, I don’t see Bear as a legitimate NHL option next season.

  82. jtblack says:

    Thx for the input on Bear.

    Kinda thought that, but really trying to reach for internal Solutions without giving up assets. There must be a Ron hainsey (but RHD) type we can sign for one year just to show up the right side

  83. --hudson-- says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Who would’ve thought Team Canada’s goalies may single handedly cost them two important round robin games (and counting)? Oh yeah, everyone did.

    It’s Mike Dipietro time! Hold on to your butts.

    Noticed Nuge has been taken off of McDs line on the pp. Replaced by Eberle.

    Another confusing move is coach has Parayko quarterbacking the #1 pp instead of Ekblad. Doesn’t seem like an optimal deployment of the players he has.

    Incredible that both Canadian goalies are backups. There’s not one starter that can come to the WC? Shameful

  84. SwedishPoster says:

    Finland taking Canada to school in the WHCs. How can so many good hockey players look so bad at once. Obviously the group stage is just warm up but still. That game must have hurted the players pride.

    Sweden mailed it against the Slovaks as well. Guess they are gearing up for the playoff part.

  85. --hudson-- says:

    jtblack:
    Say Edmonton does very little this summer.

    Do to basic regression to the positive; less injury trouble on defense ,& some better goalering from Talbott and the new backup should they not compete for a playoff spot as is???

    So if Peter can just add a few solid veterans maybe one veteran right dman and one veteran Winger we should be damn close and will not have given up any assets

    This is what I would like to see, before but I wonder if the pressure from tier 1 fans, ownership, McDavid, etc will be too much to sit on their hands.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Honestly I don’t think Bear is ready yet. The only way I could see this working is if he had a strong veteran partner (Sekera), 70% OZ starts (like Sergachev) and never saw top comp. Seeing as how TMac likes to roll his lines and pairings, I don’t see Bear as a legitimate NHL option next season.

    One major adjustment I’d like to see from the head coach is more line-matching and, in particular, working to get McDavid away from top opposition and taking advantage of icing match-ups and 4th lines.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Thx for the input on Bear.

    Kinda thought that, but really trying to reach for internal Solutions without giving up assets. There must be a Ron hainsey (but RHD) type we can sign for one year just to show up the right side

    In the comment WG made to me regarding the Leafs article, Gudas and Pysyk are that player.

    They Drive numbers and don’t get too many points so cheap. Also provide the right age to gap Benning and younger players.

    Try to make the cap work until next summer.

    So frustrating all this info is out there for free. Find value forwards that do the right things and they are competitive next season

  88. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Can ethan Bear be our puck moving RHD.I know he need some work on the defensive side but he seemed to be great at first passes and definitely has a good shot from the point.

    Larsson
    Benning
    Bear

    ???? Benning is probably playing too high in that role. But I think bear could play the three hole RHD

    We don’t know about Ethan Bear so it’s difficult to project him. I thought he played surprisingly well at 5×5 and struggled at 5×4, basically the opposite of what we might have predicted. I’d be very careful about reading too much into his possession numbers, we’re talking fewer than 300 minutes in the discipline. Of those almost 300 minutes, 140 were with Kris Russell. Bear was slightly better without Russell than with him btw.

    I think expecting him to play in 2018-19 with the Oilers is a little strong. He might get 10 games in garbage time, but maybe it goes to Caleb Jones this time. Still a terrific accomplishment (NHL time in year one of entry).

  89. sliderule says:

    I dont get the urgent need for a power play quarterback.

    Connor is going to be doing most of the work both on entries and in the zone.The power play QB is going to be mostly used as a hammer.Dont they already have this in Klefbom and even Benning if used properly

    The oilers mostly played an overload to the right side .This system featured lots of passes around perimeter and shots from the wall or point..The opposition seemed satisfied to stay in a tight box and allow perimeter passing and outman them for rebounds.

    I was surprised that oilers never went to 1-3-1 or even 2-1-2 which open up shots from the slot and the off side shot is much higher and in a better position to score than the overload..

  90. frjohnk says:

    SwedishPoster: How can so many good hockey players look so bad at onc

    Boys are having a good time off the ice.

  91. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Bear isn’t ready for the NHL.

    His results last year were hideous defensively.

    That’s ok, he’s young, but he should be no where near the NHL next year.

    I could not tell you why, but I have a feeling the Org has Bear way ahead of where the fans have him.

  92. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bonus:

    Decade of Darkness in line graph form!

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/995304760801509376

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/995311600771874816

    I enjoyed reading your work here.

    What are some conclusionscwe can draw here in regards to turning the team around? Is it as simple as Building a second line around Drai? Wonder if Leon produced a positive goal share how far would that get us?

    I’m not really on board with expensive defence upgrade. I believe that would net us only a percentage in overall gain. (Weighed agaibst outgoing assets)

    Rebuild the bottom 6?

    It appears to me that we can turn that goal share around with decent goaltending, a very good winger and some quality depth. Achievable?

    What leads Oil to believe this will all turn around with a RHD?

  93. sliderule says:

    Noah Dobson continuing his nice play

    Scored the winning goal as Bat takes 3-2 lead in series.

    With 3-10 -13 is now second in scoring for D in Q playoffs.

    There is a very nice player if he falls to 10

  94. Andy Dufresne says:

    digger50,

    “What leads Oil to believe this will all turn around with a RHD?”

    IMO They think that thier 5×5 scoring is acceptable and will improve without major investment (tweaks in the short term and internal solutions over time)

    They are shocked at the dissmal PP results and see PP and Goaltending (which are highly correlated) as the two primary factors that require fixing.

    Hence they seem fixated on doing everything possible to remedy this
    1) Upgrade Goaltending
    2) Procure Offensive Defensman / PP Quarterback (preferably RHD)
    3) Get new eyes/minds on the special teams ….in the form of new Assistant Coaches

    IMO this is what they are thinking/up to.

  95. RonnieB says:

    sliderule,

    I hope to get a chance to watch him, Hebig, and (hopefully) Skinner in the Memorial Cup.

  96. SwedishPoster says:

    frjohnk: Boys are having a good time off the ice.

    So finnish players are better hung over? Yup, makes sense, I’ve been out drinking with finns.

  97. frjohnk says:

    SwedishPoster: So finnish players are better hung over? Yup, makes sense, I’ve been out drinking with finns.

    My coworkers son is playing for Team Canada.

    Some late nights for the Canadian boys. But it’s probably like that for every team.

    Here is a fun fact about Team Canada’s first game.

    A curtain was the only thing separating the dressing rooms.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50: I could not tell you why, but I have a feeling the Org has Bear way ahead of where the fans have him.

    The Edmonton Oilers slotting players above their Established NHL Level?

    Preposterous!!

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    sliderule:
    I dont get the urgent need for a power play quarterback.

    Connor is going to be doing most of the work both on entries and in the zone.The power play QB is going to be mostly used as a hammer.Dont they already have this in Klefbom and even Benning if used properly

    The oilers mostly played an overload to the right side .This system featured lots of passes around perimeterand shots from the wall or point..The opposition seemed satisfied to stay in a tight box and allow perimeter passing and outman them for rebounds.

    I was surprised that oilers never went to 1-3-1 or even 2-1-2 which open up shots from the slot and the off side shot is much higher and in a better position to score than the overload..

    Agreed! I am not concerned about the need for a “PP QB” either. I am concerned about the need for a right shot puck moving d-man for the top 4 – someone that can help with our abysmal transition game. Someone that can play with Larsson in the top 4 on the right side to ensure the Kris Russell experiment there is over. Someone to help the group have players play in the appropriate roles.

    Presumably this player has some PP acumen but, even if he doesn’t, that’s fine.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    sliderule,

    I hope to get a chance to watch him, Hebig, and (hopefully) Skinner in the Memorial Cup.

    I will definitely be watchinf, on TV, but watching.

    Must be tough for the Pats’ players to go so long without playing and then jump right in to tournament style games.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50: I enjoyed reading your work here.

    What are some conclusionscwe can draw here in regards to turning the team around?Is it as simple as Building a second line around Drai? Wonder if Leon produced a positive goal share how far would that get us?

    I’m not really on board with expensive defence upgrade. I believe that would net us only a percentage in overall gain. (Weighed agaibst outgoing assets)

    Rebuild the bottom 6?

    It appears to me that we can turn that goal share around with decent goaltending, a very good winger and some quality depth. Achievable?

    What leads Oil to believe this will all turn around with a RHD?

    Dmen health is huge.

    Having Actual Top 4 NHLers take 60% of available Dmen minutes is a line in the sand for playoff teams that popped out of this work here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html (note: the work isn’t very scientific)

    Last year EDM had injuries from Sekera, Larsson (along with personal tragedy) and Klefbom

    Last year if we have Larsson, Klefbom and Nurse as Actual Top 4 Dmen they had 47% of available TOI for DMen taken by Actual Top 4 Dmen.

    Sekera wasn’t close to his old self and his minutes don’t count last year.

    We know that not all of Klefbom’s and Larsson minutes were good due to health as well.

    To get back to playoff contention they need the dcorps to stay healthy.

    To be a threat to win The Cup they need:

    1) Leon to win his minutes away from McDavid. To date he hasn’t done that

    2) A bottom 6 that can come close to 50% goal share.

    3) Balanced L-R Dpairs with Actual NHL Top 4 Dmen in every slot.

    Their fixes are not expensive, they just need Actual NHL players in the key slots.

    They have the $$ to add one scoring winger and I think that’s what I do for next year unless a good deal on a RHD comes up (like Tanev or similar)

    19/20 is when they get flexibility to move out Russell and add a good RHD.

    I fear that this summer they try to shoehorn a RHD on the roster and lose a better player in the process and make the team worse.

  102. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Leon needs to play with better players than Cammalleri, Caggiula, Aberg, and Khaira even. Can’t believe Chiarelli is OK with the wings.

  103. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cannon of a right shot out of the USHL. Wahlstrom’s play style kind of like Boeser’s. So much to choose from in picks 4-9 :((( Hopefully someone drops.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Leon needs to play with better players than Cammalleri, Caggiula, Aberg, and Khaira even. Can’t believe Chiarelli is OK with the wings.

    There is no question that QoT effects his results.

    I hope JP progresses next year. Another winger would help.

    This line might work:

    17/18

    27-29-98 : 49 minutes together

    CF% 53.6%
    SCF% 66.7%
    HDSCF% 71.4%

    Only had 33% GF (2-4) but goals are useless in micro samples and the shot data is better.

  105. Munny says:

    Early bird gets the diet of worms.

    Byfusion gives La Jetee the lead.

  106. Munny says:

    Laine with pas deux. Backdoor one-timer off a seam pass on the PP. Knights usually have their swords in the way of those passes.

  107. Munny says:

    Pit boss waves off the Jets third Jackpot of the period. But we’re going to video replay…

  108. CapeBretonOilers says:

    had season tickets for he Okotoks Oilers this year and JBD is a very good defenceman — woule love the Oil to grab him — believe he projected as a 2nd or third rounder.
    Another good player Austin Wong — forward — gritty as hell

  109. Munny says:

    The NHL, a paragon of efficiency. Still under review.

  110. Munny says:

    Goal stands. Goaltender interference overturned. Jets up by three early at home. It is loud.

  111. Munny says:

    And the Knights fight back with one of their own. Brayden McNabb sneaks one past Hella’s glove hand.

  112. pts2pndr says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    ArmchairGM,

    Im posting it to point out that Faulk has a much different value as stated by several well respected well researched sources across the media landscape than what his value is projected as in this forum.

    No more. No less.

    My point is that there is more than one way to evaluate the worth of a player. And if your evaluation varies in a “significant” measure from multiple credible sources, it might be wise to re-consider your evaluation. (not saying “change” your evaluation)

    This is true of every player…..not just Justin Faulk.

    Go read The Athletic article that Woodguy references if you have access. Its not my assessment. ItsIan Tullochs assessment and he does a hell of a job. Not just on Faulk but on a dozen or so options that are relevant to the Oilers. He does it based on Analytics in a heirarchical structure.

    Or not…..its a free world.

    It is not a free world! Never has been which I hope changes! We live in a relatively free society but everyone pays taxes. The saying cash ass or grass cause no one rides for free is more correct!

  113. Munny says:

    Great first period by top two teams from the West.

  114. Wilde says:

    My long post disappeared into the aether, nooo!!!!!!

  115. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Andy Dufresne,

    is that he is still stuck too heavily in the possesion mentallity that demands such a high degree of structure and defensive responsibility that it is counter-productive to what Mirtle describes as “the combined benefit of more skilled fourth lines, more puck-oriented blueliners and faster players”…………” The skill premium that analytics are demanding in hockey outweigh the deny factor — so far.”

    I wouldn’t go that far.

    One of the reasons that WPG is so successful is their high pressure forecheck which involves the Dmen to a high degree.

    They pressure the puck everywhere, but especially at the opposing blue line to keep shifts in the ozone going and their own blue line to keep shifts in their own zone from happening.

    The Dmen constantly step up in both spots.

    The key to that system is the fowards, especially the F3 in the ozone, playing high in the ozone and being ready to cover for the Dman.

    They also rely on the forwards to be strong on the back check to cover for the Dmen when they step up at the blue line.

    There was one sequence in game 7 vs NSH where it was a 2 on 2 for NSH and both WPG players were actually forwards because both Dmen stepped up in the ozone to try to keep the puck there.

    Very, very structured defence that relies on the forwards being aware and skating back.

    Its pretty much the same system that Eakins tried to implement here and laughed at for.

    It works and works well, but the team needs to buy in, no one can slack or sleep in that system or else it falls apart quickly and becomes the 2 on 1 festival that we saw in Edmonton.

    A buy in is an over simpification in that the players employed must be able to play the sytem! You can have all the will but just not able. It still is on the coach to implement the system best suited to the players on his team! This seems to be very difficult for some coaches. Most systems with the right talent and execution will be successful. This is why I found the disconnect between Chiarelli and The coach so frustrating! Lucic for an example is not able to play man to man defense in th defensive zone no matter how hard he tries! Players have to be put in positions to succeed! Horses will not be able to Moo and cats can not bark!

  116. Munny says:

    I had no idea Ryan was Willard Reaves’s son. That is so cool.

  117. leadfarmer says:

    Karlsson with another superhigh danger goal. As long as he plays with Marchessault please dont do something dumb like bet against this players shot percentage next year

  118. Wilde says:

    leadfarmer:
    Karlsson with another superhigh danger goal.As long as he plays with Marchessault please dont do something dumb like bet against this players shot percentage next year

    William Karlsson SuperElit scoring age 17: 54 pts in 38 games

    Jonatan Berggren SuperElit socring age 17: 57 pts in 38 games

  119. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Dmen health is huge.

    Having Actual Top 4 NHLers take 60% of available Dmen minutes is a line in the sand for playoff teams that popped out of this work here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html (note: the work isn’t very scientific)

    Last year EDM had injuries from Sekera, Larsson (along with personal tragedy) and Klefbom

    Last year if we have Larsson, Klefbom and Nurse as Actual Top 4 Dmen they had 47% of available TOI for DMen taken by Actual Top 4 Dmen.

    Sekera wasn’t close to his old self and his minutes don’t count last year.

    We know that not all of Klefbom’s and Larsson minutes were good due to health as well.

    To get back to playoff contention they need the dcorps to stay healthy.

    To be a threat to win The Cup they need:

    1) Leon to win his minutes away from McDavid.To date he hasn’t done that

    2) A bottom 6 that can come close to 50% goal share.

    3) Balanced L-R Dpairs with Actual NHL Top 4 Dmen in every slot.

    Their fixes are not expensive, they just need Actual NHL players in the key slots.

    They have the $$ to add one scoring winger and I think that’s what I do for next year unless a good deal on a RHD comes up (like Tanev or similar)

    19/20 is when they get flexibility to move out Russell and add a good RHD.

    I fear that this summer they try to shoehorn a RHD on the roster and lose a better player in the process and make the team worse.

    I am on board with this plan.
    Get through next season with the current defense.
    1. You hopefully get healthy seasons from Klefbom and Sekera. This should give the Oilers a better idea of what they have in these two players moving forward. If they get back to their 16/17 levels their trade values should increase.
    2. Next summer some of the trade restrictions come off Sekera and Russell which gives the club a lot more options if they decide to trade a lefty.
    3. Everyone wants a 2RD this summer but I have yet to see a REALISTIC trade proposal that is acceptable in asset cost and/or salary coming in.

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: I am on board with this plan.
    Get through next season with the current defense.
    1. You hopefully get healthy seasons from Klefbom and Sekera. This should give the Oilers a better idea of what they have in these two players moving forward. If they get back to their 16/17 levels their trade values should increase.
    2. Next summer some of the trade restrictions come off Sekera and Russell which gives the club a lot more options if they decide to trade a lefty.
    3. Everyone wants a 2RD this summer but I have yet to see a REALISTIC trade proposal that is acceptable in asset cost and/orsalary coming in.

    If they don’t make a big splash and change up the forming core then that’s the play.

    The need cheap effective forwards if they want to get anywhere. Brodziak Winnik Vanek maybe MPS there are players out there that can do better than what we saw last season.

  121. maudite says:

    Oiler fans and management should both look at Schiefele’s development and cool all jets about JP. You’d be crazy to sell low on this kid and also be crazy to demand he plays anywhere in lineup or it would be the worst to AHL him to start season (we can’t but it wouldn’t be worse)

    I seriously hope kailer stays in juniors. I wouldn’t move a player from any league until they show progression in that league. Kailer didn’t. Don’t see why he auto starts in AHL in people’s minds.

    We need to stop ruining players in development more than any other thing that is wrong with this team.

  122. who says:

    maudite:
    Oiler fans and management should both look at Schiefele’s development and cool all jets about JP.You’d be crazy to sell low on this kid and also be crazy to demand he plays anywhere in lineup or it would be the worst to AHL him to start season (we can’t but it wouldn’t be worse)

    I seriously hope kailer stays in juniors.I wouldn’t move a player from any league until they show progression in that league.Kailer didn’t.Don’t see why he auto starts in AHL in people’s minds.

    We need to stop ruining players in development more than any other thing that is wrong with this team.

    Why do people think that Yamamoto should spend his overage season back in junior? He’s spent 4 years in the league already! And he’s certainly proved himself at that level. This player NEEDS to play at the next level!

  123. Side says:

    who: Why do people think that Yamamoto should spend his overage season back in junior? He’s spent 4 years in the league already! And he’s certainly proved himself at that level. This player NEEDS to play at the next level!

    I can never understand how people can confidently say a player has to spend ‘x’ number of years (determined arbitrarily) in a league before moving up, and if they don’t, the organization has failed the player. Especially when most people don’t watch KY’s games in the minors, they don’t work with him daily, and don’t have the same knowledge as the coaches.

    Not everyone develops the same. If KY lights up pre-season and gets another audition, then why not see how he does in the NHL again? If he doesn’t do well and needs more time he can go back down. The path to developing a player should be seeing what’s best for the player, not banishing them to the minors for an arbitrary amount of time.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Again….not with anything approaching 100% confidence levels…this implies to me that among all the other neccessities (draft and develop, dont over-pay in $ or term, make better deals in the trade market, etc) the formula for success is somewhat contingent on a cap window where your elite players reach an age (peak performance) at a time when thier contracts shrink percentage wise in relation to a rising cap.

    This would suggest that McDavid, Draisailt, combined with good drafting, good player procurement and TIME…..is a/the winning formula.Which seems completely obvious on one level….but is somewhat obscured/made foggy by the Chicgao roster in one way and the Vegas roster in another.

    The winning formula was not trading one of the best cap value contracts in the league (Hall) which would have ended up with Drai not getting near $8.5MM and not TIME.

    Alas, that ship sailed.

  125. digger50 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    digger50,

    “What leads Oil to believe this will all turn around with a RHD?”

    IMOThey think that thier 5×5 scoring is acceptable and will improve without major investment (tweaks in the short term and internal solutions over time)

    They are shocked at the dissmal PP results and see PP and Goaltending (which are highly correlated) as the two primary factors that require fixing.

    Hence they seem fixated on doing everything possible to remedy this
    1) Upgrade Goaltending
    2) Procure Offensive Defensman / PP Quarterback (preferably RHD)
    3) Get new eyes/minds on the special teams ….in the form of new Assistant Coaches

    IMO this is what they are thinking/up to.

    Yup, sounds like a pretty good assessment of what this Org is thinking.

    Does not really fill me with confidence.

    Okay, Stanley Cup here we come!

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scheifele spent 158 games in the CHL.

    Yamamoto has spent 230 games in the CHL.

    There is no reason for him to play more there.

    AHL should be the next stop.

  127. maudite says:

    Side: I can never understand how people can confidently say a player has to spend ‘x’ number of years (determined arbitrarily) in a league before moving up, and if they don’t, the organization has failed the player.Especially when most people don’t watch KY’s games in the minors, they don’t work with him daily, and don’t have the same knowledge as the coaches.

    Not everyone develops the same. If KY lights up pre-season and gets another audition, then why not see how he does in the NHL again? If he doesn’t do well and needs more time he can go back down. The path to developing a player should be seeing what’s best for the player, not banishing them to the minors for an arbitrary amount of time.

    When a player out performs in a league then advance said player. Yes, things outside of offense dictate progress but as an offensive winger he ran in place. That’s definitely not jump from junior past AHL and actually might be hold in junior and tear the leather off ball first territory…

    I hope AHL but I really fear NHL. Which even if his play merits it likely ends in a busted shoulder and repressed development.

    It is the systemic issue with Oilers. Development is the Achilles heel.

    The whole “where is the depth players?”

    Omark
    Lander
    Slep
    Yak
    Yak 2
    Magnus

    etc….

  128. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Scheifele spent 158 games in the CHL.

    Yamamoto has spent 230 games in the CHL.

    There is no reason for him to play more there.

    AHL should be the next stop.

    Too small. Give him five more years in the WHL. That’ll get him to 6.06!

  129. who says:

    maudite: When a player out performs in a league then advance said player.Yes, things outside of offense dictate progress but as an offensive winger he ran in place.That’s definitely not jump from junior past AHL and actually might be hold in junior and tear the leather off ball first territory…

    I hope AHL but I really fear NHL.Which even if his play merits it likely ends in a busted shoulder and repressed development.

    It is the systemic issue with Oilers.Development is the Achilles heel.

    The whole “where is the depth players?”

    Omark
    Lander
    Slep
    Yak
    Yak 2
    Magnus

    etc….

    You do realize he’d be an overager next year don’t you?
    Overage juniors are guys who haven’t been drafted yet or late round picks who haven’t had a lot of games at the CHL level.
    They are not 1st round picks who have already spent 4 years in the league.
    The Oilers could leave him in junior till he’s 25.
    He will still be small.

  130. Rebilled says:

    I’d bat piss my pants if we got Kovalchuk.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not sure how Yamamoto’s post WJHC performance cannot be seen as progression.

  132. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Too small. Give him five more years in the WHL. That’ll get him to 6.06!

    You know, they do have that height-lengthening process involving breaking and then re-fusing the legs.

  133. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Too small. Give him five more years in the WHL. That’ll get him to 6.06!

    Is he too young for human growth hormone

  134. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Scheifele spent 158 games in the CHL.

    Yamamoto has spent 230 games in the CHL.

    There is no reason for him to play more there.

    AHL should be the next stop.

    Yammy is still a boy playing a mans game, Scheifele was a man playing a mans game when he graduated. Unless he gets much stronger this summer, I’m afraid he will be on the injury list more than playing.

  135. maudite says:

    Holy smarmy….

    Yeah, playing draft +2 really hurt Eberle hey?

    Outside of too talented you can’t screw it up, pretty much all of our success stories are the few times we actually tried to develop a player slow.

    Doe kailer need to go back to junior….maybe not but the conversation should be junior or ahl. Not nhl or ahl.

    Do you want to put money on if he plays NHL next year that he doesn’t end up missing at least a 10 game stint due to injury?

    Seriously.

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