Shine your light on me

One year from today, we’ll either be talking about a successful 2018-19 season or a new regime at the top for the Edmonton Oilers. There is no neutral ground. Peter Chiarelli has been consistent in stating his vision for the team and then doing the due diligence of finding solutions to the outstanding issues he sees as vital to success. We are now entering his fourth summer of fixing and for PC the phrase ‘sooner or later you develop a past’ needs a crisis management team of its own. How did we get here?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

 CHIARELLI TO-DO LIST, 2015 SUMMER

  1. Draft McDavid (check)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (his answer was Cam Talbot)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (Andrej Sekera)
  4. Acquire a more offensive two-way F (Lauri Korpikoski)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (dealt for No. 107 overall)

That was my list and Chiarelli did a helluva job getting Talbot and Sekera. The Korpikoski bet included an extra year added to the Boyd Gordon contract and that was a misstep. The big trade of summer was a searing loss (Griffin Reinhart for two high picks) and robbed Edmonton of an historic draft haul. Over at The Athletic, we talked yesterday about where to lay blame for the Reinhart deal (some feeling Bob Green was the culprit). My line of thinking has always been that the general manager is the decision maker, so we give him credit for Talbot, Sekera and Reinhart.

 CHIARELLI TO-DO LIST, 2016 SUMMER

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (his answer was Larsson)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (Kris Russell)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (Jesse Puljujarvi)
  4. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
  5. Rob the Bruins of something (Matt Benning)

Chiarelli pulled the trigger on a painful trade June 29, 2016 and covered off the first item in doing it. A lot of people have been spending these last few months talking about the devastation of the Reinhart trade, but for me the Hall trade remains the deal that altered the trajectory of this franchise. Until Chiarelli, or his replacement, can find another player to push the river, this will be the turning point in the story I write.

Russell’s hiring came very late and arrived partly because Reinhart was unable to grab an NHL job. Puljujarvi isn’t a RHC but does set up a righty inside the top 6F for years to come. The backup goalie choice is akin to the Korpikoski item one year previous: It was a clunker. The signing of Matt Benning was  a win.

Photo by Mark Williams

CHIARELLI TO-DO LIST, 2017 SUMMER

  1. Sign McDavid and Draisaitl. (Done)
  2. Survive the expansion draft.  (Reinhart was lost)
  3. Make sure there’s enough cap room. (Eberle out, Strome in)
  4. Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen (Kris Russell)
  5. Find a forward who can help the offense. (No answer)
  6. Offload Benoit Pouliot. (they bought him out)

The team was coming off a very successful regular season and a legit playoff run, leading to a leisurely pace through summer. The big ticket items were getting 97 and 29 signed and it took forever (reportedly involving the threat of an offer sheet, although that might be issue framing).

By the time Peter Chiarelli got around to shoring up the roster, there wasn’t much still available (although Thomas Vanek would not be signed for several days after the Leon agreement). So, he traded Eberle to make sure he could afford Leon, but didn’t need to do it and then didn’t spend the extra money to help the roster. Either Daryl Katz has financial trouble, PC believed in all of his auditioning wingers, or Vanek wasn’t a fit. None of the possible answers is encouraging.

All the bets went sideways. All of them. Even the ones from previous seasons (Reinhart deal, Hall) conspired against Chiarelli. He arrived at spring 2018 under an enormous amount of pressure.

CHIARELLI TO-DO LIST, 2018 SUMMER

  1. Veteran scoring right winger. This is basically replacing Eberle, in the short term.
  2. Two-way left winger. How many Oilers forwards are capable two-way players? Not enough.
  3. Puck mover. In my opinion this isn’t a priority but PC is honed in on an upgrade.
  4. No. 7 defender. I assume it’s Brandon Davidson returning.
  5. Backup goalie. Mikko Koskinen is an expensive, unproven option but his resume is solid.

Hopefully we will see Skinner signed soon, at this point Bakersfield is his likely destination in the fall. The Condors goalie situation currently is whack!

This draft has a crazy feel, there seems to be some fluidity after the top two names (Dahlin, Svechnikov). I trust Simon, don’t trust the Habs. I wonder if a player like Wahlstrom falls, if the Oilers find a way to move up. Remember, they need someone who can make a difference offensively. Wahlstrom has that resume.

AL MONTOYA

Interesting conversation on the blog yesterday, lots of different opinions on Laurent Brossoit, Al Montoya and how the backup goalie situation was handled. For me, the trade should have happened sooner (we knew Cam Talbot wasn’t at previous levels early in the year) and should have been for a more substantial goalie.

That said, it was Laurent Brossoit’s time to shine. I can’t fault a general manager for pushing an NHL audition for a player who has done everything asked and posted a solid resume. Brossoit’s performance (especially in that Saturday night game against Calgary, might have sealed his fate that night) made it an urgent piece of business and PC acquired Al Montoya.

If Montoya had performed well, we would be talking about an astute mid-season bet and a goalie situation that looked set (and solid value at just over $5 million for the set). Montoya was disappointing, and Chiarelli made the decision to get Koskinen. I have no quarrel with any of the decisions (Brossoit audition, Montoya replacement and possibly solving 18-19 in net, signing Koskinen) when taken in context.

THE SUMMER

Draft Kotkaniemi, grab a RHD in the second round and then look for skill until the end of the draft. Grab a late overager or two. There’s some free-agent money, spend it on two-way forwards and a RHD like Chris Wideman. It’ll never happen.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, lots to get to after a stunning weekend of playoff hockey. Scheduled to appear, 10am TSN1260:

  • Pierre Lebrun, The Athletic. The Jets are fine, the fans are loud!
  • Keegan Matheson, Baseball Toronto. Injuries, starting staff, Guerrero making noises.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Clare Drake, NHL playoffs, Stuart Skinner.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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153 Responses to "Shine your light on me"

  1. CopaFrank says:

    Should we be worried that Koskinen is not playing in the World Championships?

  2. Side says:

    CopaFrank:
    Should we be worried that Koskinen is not playing in the World Championships?

    If I recall correctly, he has a minor injury that he is resting in the off season or something like that. Doesn’t sound too troubling.

  3. leadfarmer says:

    Hughes brothers are going to be great players in this league.

    They need to make room for Skinner. Loved that pick when we made it. Complete boom or bust pick. Time to clear out some dead weight and give him 50% starts next year in Bakersfield

  4. rickithebear says:

    Sorry LT
    Until you exclude save% baseline established by d men
    You are not measuring a goalie.
    Talbot had his best start as an Oiler
    Thanks to Tmac d baselines were Eakins bad.

    Especially to Klefbom and nurses side

  5. Nix says:

    Agreed on drafting Kotkaniemi, but I wonder if theres a trade to suss out with Winnipeg if Bokk is still available when they pick.

    Kotkaniemi and a 2nd for Bokk and Vesalainen.

    Would benefit both parties. We get two talented ‘potential draft steals’ to shore up our winger depth (power fwd and dangler/sniper), and Winnipeg gets a top 10 skilled Finn who can play C. Vesalainen is near NHL ready which helps us, and the Jets who already have a skilled roster can afford to let Kotkaniemi stew in development a cpl of years since hes potentially the best of the three.

    RNH-McD-Yamo
    Rieder-Draisaitl-Vanek (Bokk)
    Vesalainen-Strome-Pulju
    Khaira-Marody-Kassian

  6. LMHF#1 says:

    Thinking of Clare Drake – a live well lived and such a wide-ranging impact.

    I am too young to know much of when he was coaching – but even by the time I was at the UofA and spending a lot of time in and around that rink you could feel the impact and the presence. I’m sure you still can.

    I was fortunate enough to have a really flexible schedule at the end of my degree – so I got to take classes with both the Bears volleyball and hockey coaches – talk about a fun way to finish up university.

    We learned some of the systems play and other concepts that Drake taught – it was fascinating stuff that I’d still love to see deployed by a highly skilled NHL team – and even though you were just a student you could tell how everyone around that program carried themselves and it rubbed off. Such a fun time…and where else do you get to lay out one of the Bears leading scorers and have the Coach lecture HIM for hot dogging…

  7. Dustylegnd says:

    Here is the real concerning issue re Chia, he has a significant track record of trading very talented players for less talented players, he has an established track record of paying players too much money for too much term and too little production…..

    They say past performance does not guarantee future results…..we all better hope that Nicholson had a come to jesus conversation about changing Chia’s most destructive behaviours…the threat of termination failing playoff qualification most likely reduces the probability of rational behaviour by Chia.

    The necessary conversation with Chia is this….here are your strengths, drafting, peripheral deals like Maroon…glaring weakness is trading great players for less impactful players, over paying on term and salary for most players, Drai, Russell, Lucic etc etc etc

    Can we honestly believe that Chia now changes his most destructive behaviours?……statistically unlikely, more likely he is operating under an oversight committee…..an equally depressing prospect….the Oilers are in a nasty catch 22 position…..a Fan Boy owner who has removed direct influence via an intermediary (Nicholson) then reintroduced unqualified disruptive forces like Gretzky and Coffee while still granting Lowe influence……

    I love the fact that we have a dynamic draft situation, it is highly likely a very very very good player will be available at 10 and again at 41 (or where ever we draft in the 2nd round)….there is a good chance 2 very good players will be available…..the drafts have been better since Gretz jr…..it is the one segment of the executive branch that is working…..lets hope we keep our picks

  8. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    Sorry LT
    Until you exclude save% baseline established by d men
    You are not measuring a goalie.
    Talbot had his best start as an Oiler
    Thanks to Tmac d baselines were Eakins bad.

    Especially to Klefbom and nurses side

    I don’t think “sorry” means what you think it means. I think you meant “fuck off”

  9. Rafa Nadal says:

    Watching the Capitals and Lightning game last night, I was very impressed with Lars Eller and his ability to succeed as a 3C in the 2C role with Backstrom injured. Not really related to the Oilers, but I wanted to comment on his excellent game.

  10. trencan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Hughes brothers are going to be great players in this league.

    They need to make room for Skinner.Loved that pick when we made it.Complete boom or bust pick.Time to clear out some dead weight and give him 50% starts next year in Bakersfield

    Or maybe Hughes brothers are going to be great players in Montreal.

  11. Psyche says:

    Lowetide,

    Lol. That’s what I thought when I read his message too. Kind of like when people start a conversation with, “I don’t mean to be rude, but…”.

  12. leadfarmer says:

    trencan: Or maybe Hughes brothers are going to be great players in Montreal.

    Possible but they need a lottery win or injury to him to fall enough. But since he’s in USNDP someone will probably take a good Canadian kid that stayed home over him.
    If it was up to me the Oil would draft predominantly from OHL and USHL USNDP before everyone else figures this out

  13. who says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Watching the Capitals and Lightning game last night, I was very impressed with Lars Eller and his ability to succeed as a 3C in the 2C role with Backstrom injured. Not really related to the Oilers, but I wanted to comment on his excellent game.

    Always liked him with Montreal. Great pick up by Washington.
    Interesting to note that Montreal essentially traded him for Andrew Shaw, who is half the player Ellers is. But he is gritty! Hooray!

  14. leadfarmer says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Watching the Capitals and Lightning game last night, I was very impressed with Lars Eller and his ability to succeed as a 3C in the 2C role with Backstrom injured. Not really related to the Oilers, but I wanted to comment on his excellent game.

    Also how badly the Lightning are playing. They got two early pp gifts from the refs (first call should have been a 4 on 4 Wilson got hooked but I think he could have made a bigger effort to stop and then Hedman got hit by a puck and was called a high stick)
    In the 3rd period the odd man rushes were 10-2 for Washington so far in the series. Crazy. The Bolts have 1 even strength goal in 2 games.

    Also how many people on here were saying they would not pick up Holtby for free a month ago. What wine or beer pairing are you having with that crow.

  15. jtblack says:

    Dustylegnd,

    “Here is the real concerning issue re Chia, he has a significant track record of trading very talented players for less talented players,”

    I said it yesterday and will say it again. What you describe above is Player Evaluation. GM’s make trades. GM make BIG player trades. The key is that you have properly evaluated the outgoing asset(s) and the incoming asset(s).

    So if LT says its ok to run with LB in net, I disagree. PC has FAILED 3 times at getting a reliable backup. He burned a 4th rounder becuase of missing on LB’s ability.

    His talent eval on Reinhart? come on. Nobody outside the Oilers Org thought Reinhart would be more than a 5/6 D man AT BEST. Everybody knew the 2015 Draft was deep. So PC missed on the quality that #16 & #33 represented. THAT 2015 DRAFT should have been a historic haul as LT mentions. Major fail by PC.

    Hall value? he undervalued Hall. Larsson? He probably tried to change the Narrative on Larsson to call him a #1 D man. Hes solid and a good shutdown guy, but delivers no O.

    PC consistently, incorrectly values incoming vs outgoing assets.

    He probably has to make 1 or 2 decent size ttrades this summer in an attempt to save his job. Lets see if he can “win” a bigger trade. WE WAIT

  16. McSorley33 says:

    leadfarmer,

    In the 3rd period the odd man rushes were 10-2 for Washington so far in the series. Crazy. The Bolts have 1 even strength goal in 2 games.
    ********************************************************************************************************
    This.

    What has happened to Tampa.

  17. Connoreah says:

    Sorry to go off-topic here…..

    LT or others who are savvy with the fancies, I have a question: What does Vegas’ success contribute to the debate (if anything) around the value of club culture, leadership, good guys in the room, intangibles, etc. for success in today’s NHL?

    My assumption (could be wrong) is the guys who make up the roster were castoffs from other teams, so most likely didn’t have great resumes in terms of a history of strong boxcars (with the odd exception, of course, in Neal, Marchessault, etc.), strong possession numbers, pushing the river, etc. etc. Again, I’m sure there are a few exceptions, but generally speaking my assumption is that most of these guys were not very “successful” in the NHL prior to being selected by Vegas.

    I’ve read that these guys called themselves the “Vegas Misfits” as a way of motivating each other. They had a chip on their shoulder going into the season, and bonded over a shared desire to prove everyone wrong.

    So my question is, does the Vegas success story illustrate the significant impact that club culture, leadership and intangibles (which we can’t measure) can have on team success in the NHL? Even when the measures that most people value in individual players aren’t present? Or is this just a once in a million freak outlier?

    I’m genuinely curious how the Vegas season will be analyzed in future years, so any insights from the very smart people on this blog would be very much appreciated!

  18. rickithebear says:

    Undervalued hall!

    What Bullshit!

    Hall was 20g 52p (just top 60) fad last 2 yr Edm and first yr NJ.
    Who could not stay healthy for 14 games a season.
    Were he was replaced by #13-17 fad resulting in 30-40 win %in those games.
    Greatly handicappingoilers playoff chances.

    That was his value as an Oiler in the WC.

    Hall who stated he did not listen to the coaches

  19. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    McSorley33:
    leadfarmer,

    In the 3rd period the odd man rushes were 10-2 for Washington so far in the series. Crazy. The Bolts have 1 even strength goal in 2 games.
    ********************************************************************************************************
    This.

    What has happened to Tampa.

    – Holtby was a bum, who lost his role to Grubauer

    – Then Grubauer was a bum, and they had to go back to Holtby becaseu they had no choice

    – Now Holtby is great, and Washington looks great and genius coach and great team work and D.

    – Nilsson was a bum as our backup, and Chia was a genius for getting a 5th when they dumped him. Now we wish we had Nilsson as our backup, and he’s the G for team Sweden.

    F#ng goalies: but they matter the most IMO.

    – I don’t care how it happens but lets hope goalie dice roll our way next year

  20. Pretendergast says:

    We’re drafting a defenceman, Chiarelli said as much in the end of season presser. If they’re somehow all gone I suspect a trade down.

    Where did this forward drafting idea come from, is it just what people want?

  21. Richard S.S. says:

    rickithebear,

    Thank You.
    Well said.

  22. Side says:

    rickithebear:
    Undervalued hall!

    What Bullshit!

    Hall was 20g 52p (just top 60) fad last 2 yr Edm and first yr NJ.
    Who could not stay healthy for 14 games a season.
    Were he was replaced by #13-17 fad resulting in 30-40 win %in those games.
    Greatly handicappingoilers playoff chances.

    That was his value as an Oiler in the WC.

    Hall who stated he did not listen to the coaches

    Hall who then clarified he did listen to the coaches.

  23. Brantford Boy says:

    Ah the ebs and flows of this blog… yesterday my Grinch heart felt two times bigger with the Mothers Day post. Today, awaiting a helicopter for my holidays, I was hoping for a rainbows and unicorns post. “I don’t mean to be rude, but…”, I was hoping to get one more day in without the Chiarelli flashlight post 😉 I kid, it is a great post and timely LT. Sadly my helicopter is now delayed due to fog and my Grinch heart has deflated to its normal size. If I ever do make it out, I will be in the City of Champions for an Eskimos game so if you see a guy on the news streaking passed the Mercer building you can point to the TV and say “hey I know that guy”… cheers folks!

  24. ohhell says:

    Connoreah,

    The expansion rules exposed a lot of good players to Vegas. They were able to craft a team of good players throughout their roster. It takes teams a long time to develop strength throughout the line-up and also in the minors, but Vegas was able to do that in one season. They were able to find many quality players who fit their speed / workmanship vision. They immediately had four solid lines. While it looked like they lacked the super high-end talent, it was evident from the beginning that they had landed a solid defense and had a number of players with up arrows.

    While the players may have felt cast off because others were protected ahead of them, and while this may have provided some incentive to push hard at the beginning, that level of sustain is difficult to keep up in the back half of the season when other teams are cranking it up.

    I believe the expansion rules set the Knights up for success and will do the same for the Seattle team. That will be hard on struggling franchises that will see more good players leave, only to watch new teams pass them in the dust. Oilers may fit this category unfortunately.

  25. Richard S.S. says:

    Pretendergast,

    To rank everyone 4-12, there would be at least 15 names, if not many more. Chances are very good that a quality D remains at #10, if and when the Oilers pick. There is a better chance of getting a true #1 D low in the draft.

  26. Richard S.S. says:

    Side,

    Hall who saved face by backtracking his previous statement.

  27. Side says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Side,

    Hall who saved face by backtracking his previous statement.

    Sure, if that’s what you want to believe.

  28. Brantford Boy says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Unfortunately, I believe the Rangers are going to screw us over and take Dobson before we get to pick…

  29. Connoreah says:

    ohhell:
    Connoreah,

    The expansion rules exposed a lot of good players to Vegas.They were able to craft a team of good players throughout their roster.It takes teams a long time to develop strength throughout the line-up and also in the minors, but Vegas was able to do that in one season.They were able to find many quality players who fit their speed / workmanship vision.They immediately had four solid lines.While it looked like they lacked the super high-end talent, it was evident from the beginning that they had landed a solid defense and had a number of players with up arrows.

    While the players may have felt cast off because others were protected ahead of them, and while this may have provided some incentive to push hard at the beginning, that level of sustain is difficult to keep up in the back half of the season when other teams are cranking it up.

    I believe the expansion rules set the Knights up for success and will do the same for the Seattle team.That will be hard on struggling franchises that will see more good players leave, only to watch new teams pass them in the dust.Oilers may fit this category unfortunately.

    Thanks for the insight. You suggest that these were all quality players that Vegas got. By what measure would you make that statement? Boxcars, fancy stats, other forms of evaluation from previous seasons?

    My curiosity is how the success will be understood, in the future. Was it the team culture, or were these guys that performed really well by measures that most GMs didn’t appreciate at the time? What makes you describe them as “quality players?”

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The thing that really pissed me off with the goalies last year was not using Ellis.

    Talbot was on the IR so LB was starting and Ellis was the backup.

    LB had just given up 5 against TOR and they had CGY 2 nights later.

    Was the perfect spot to give Ellis and start and McLellen went back to LB, I who promptly gave up 5 again.

    Godot is right. McLellan has a long history of riding his starter hard and that needs to stop.

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Always liked him with Montreal. Great pick up by Washington.
    Interesting to note that Montreal essentially traded him for Andrew Shaw, who is half the player Ellers is. But he is gritty! Hooray!

    MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

    MTL: *trades Eller*

    MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Peter signing Gustavsson was a giant flashing red light with a klaxon sound “Peter has no clue about goalies”

    There were about 20 FA backups that summer and other than Scrivens Gustavsson was the worst, and it was close between those two.

    Signed him early on the 1st too.

    Christ.

  33. Rondo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

    MTL: *trades Eller*

    MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

    They do have Jacob De La Rose who will be an excellent shutdown center.

    He would be a great pickup for the Oilers .

  34. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

    MTL: *trades Eller*

    MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

    Yep.
    Feels good to watch another team’s management screw up. Doesn’t it. Misery loves company.

  35. who says:

    Rondo: They do have Jacob De La Rose who will be an excellent shutdown center.

    Maybe. But Eller was already there. And I don’t think DeLaRose has the offensive ceiling that Eller does.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Connoreah:
    Sorry to go off-topic here…..

    LT or others who are savvy with the fancies, I have a question: What does Vegas’ success contribute to the debate (if anything) around the value of club culture, leadership, good guys in the room, intangibles, etc. for success in today’s NHL?

    My assumption (could be wrong) is the guys who make up the roster were castoffs from other teams, so most likely didn’t have great resumes in terms of a history of strong boxcars (with the odd exception, of course, in Neal, Marchessault, etc.), strong possession numbers, pushing the river, etc. etc. Again, I’m sure there are a few exceptions, but generally speaking my assumption is that most of these guys were not very “successful” in the NHL prior to being selected by Vegas.

    I’ve read that these guys called themselves the “Vegas Misfits” as a way of motivating each other. They had a chip on their shoulder going into the season, and bonded over a shared desire to prove everyone wrong.

    So my question is, does the Vegas success story illustrate the significant impact that club culture, leadership and intangibles (which we can’t measure) can have on team success in the NHL? Even when the measures that most people value in individual players aren’t present? Or is this just a once in a million freak outlier?

    I’m genuinely curious how the Vegas season will be analyzed in future years, so any insights from the very smart people on this blog would be very much appreciated!

    Vegas has 3 lines under 50% GF and one line at 68%GF this year with the best goalie in the NHL via all situations SV%.

    Their speed worked well vs LAK and SJS but don’t forget Fleury running north of .940 in those two series.

    The best way I can sum up VGK is:

    1) great line
    2) no line that gets killed like most team’s 4th
    3) great goalie
    4) Schmidt anchoring 1st pair, Theodore anchoring 2nd pair and a decent 3rd pair

    They don’t have the shitty 4th line or 3rd pair like many GMs saddle their coach with.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear:
    Undervalued hall!

    What Bullshit!

    Hall was 20g 52p (just top 60) fad last 2 yr Edm and first yr NJ.
    Who could not stay healthy for 14 games a season.
    Were he was replaced by #13-17 fad resulting in 30-40 win %in those games.
    Greatly handicappingoilers playoff chances.

    That was his value as an Oiler in the WC.

    Hall who stated he did not listen to the coaches

    Way to lose your last shred of credibility.

    His on ice GF% was usually 10% above every other Oiler line while playing the toughest opp.

  38. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

    MTL: *trades Eller*

    MTL: “we don’t have any centers!”

    MTL – *trades for Winger*

    MTL – “we don’t have any centers”

    MTL – *Let’s make him a Center!*

    MTL – “we don’t have any centers”

  39. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter signing Gustavsson was a giant flashing red light with a klaxon sound “Peter has no clue about goalies”

    There were about 20 FA backups that summer and other than Scrivens Gustavsson was the worst, and it was close between those two.

    Signed him early on the 1st too.

    Christ.

    Peter got Talbot right. If TALBOT turned out to be like Darling, who knows where this Franchose would be.

    With that said, PC’s inability to sign a veteran, stable backup is perplexing.

    You look at Playoff teams and *MOST* had a good to excellent Backup. You look at NON Playoff teams, you start to see a pattern.

    CGY – SMITH ; nothing
    EDM – TALBOT ; nothing
    CHI – CRAWFORD ; nothing
    AZ – RAANTA ; nothing
    DAL – BISHOP; nothing

    ETC, ETC

    LET US PRAY, The new unproven guy can post a +.500 record and give Edm 20+ Games.

  40. OilSafety says:

    Nice to see Skinner signed. Logical that they would wait so he could keep his mind on his task. Kid must be flying high today.

  41. Richard S.S. says:

    There is a very fine line between a fan and a fanatic, so fine it’s hard to know when the line has been crossed. Let’s just say that line has been crossed today by two people I respect.

  42. innercitysmytty says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    WG, I think the heart of what he was asking was whether there were any previous statistical indicators on these players before they got drafted by Vegas that they would perform this way once there. That’s my read but may be wrong.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, in reading your post today, it seems you’ve lost all objectivity in regards to this GM. You mentioned a while back that this fanbase fractured with the Hall trade and I think it’s fair to conclude that you were one of the individuals most ‘fractured’ by that move?

    If objectivity is the goal, then two mitigating factors have to be considered fully for a balanced pov imo:

    1) The urgency from ownership in fixing the ‘D’ problem. Unfortunately not every GM is gifted an extremely patient owner that afford them the luxury of following a prudent methodical plan like Poile or Cheveldayoff. Some owners are more of the mindset of ‘we’re opening a new building and the D core has to be fixed yesterday!’ Chiarelli doesn’t have to trade for Larsson if Thumbellini simply drafts him over Nuge in the first place. So if we’re talking about ‘developing a past,’ certainly the Oilers have to hold some primary accountability for leaving the team so bereft of D to start. In short, Chiarelli inherited an empty cupboard on the back-end and an owner demanding to eat NOW. Sub optimal.

    2) McDavid is not a cure all for 30 years of bad drafting. Just because newfound urgency and cries for management competency arrived with the prodigy, it doesn’t mean the sins of the past can be expected to be washed away immediately. Absolutely, we want to compete with Connor as soon as we can, but you have to have depth throughout the organization to do so: both on the pro and development league rosters.

    When a company is this bad for this long, it’s going to take the CEO some time to turn it around. First, he has to cut out all the old deadwood (which Chiarelli was not actually empowered to do with this org), then he’s got to establish the infrastructure for his vision and processes, then he’s got to methodically acquire and develop top tier talent to execute it. I would guess we’re about 75% on the infrastructure build and about 33% on the talent acquisition side.

    Under the much celebrated Poile, it took the Predators 12 years before they were capable of reaching the semifinals. As perennial cellar dwellars who’d drafted poorly for 3 decades, the Oilers had some pieces the Preds didn’t have, but in all honesty is Connor and Taylor enough to fast track that process by 9 or so years? It took NSH a decade of draft and development to build a D core the envy of the league. But hey, Petey should be able to do that in 3 years, right?

    It was great having McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hall up front, but they had NOBODY on the back end. And all I ever hear in terms of alternative approaches to what Chiarelli did is sign Demers or Hamonic. Underwhelming to say the least.

  44. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Vegas has 3 lines under 50% GF and one line at 68%GF this year with the best goalie in the NHL via all situations SV%.

    Their speed worked well vs LAK and SJS but don’t forget Fleury running north of .940 in those two series.

    The best way I can sum up VGK is:

    1) great line
    2) no line that gets killed like most team’s 4th
    3) great goalie
    4) Schmidt anchoring 1st pair, Theodore anchoring 2nd pair and a decent 3rd pair

    They don’t have the shitty 4th line or 3rd pair like manyGMs saddle their coach with.

    We can divide these up into proximate causes to see where the credit and blame should lie.

    The biggest explanation for the success is the Marchesault, Smith, Karlsson line. That is one part luck (Karlsson) and one part Dave Tallon who in effect traded Marchesault and Smith for Alex Petrovic and a 4th round pick.

    That was an incredibly stupid thing to do by the non-computer nerd and is the single biggest reason for the success of the Knights.

    Lesson: get good players keep good players.

    Their defensive is surprisingly good. This is one part nature of the expansion draft (Schmidt and C. Miller being available) and one part mistake by Anaheim (Shea Theodore).

    The depth is also good. This is one part nature of the expansion draft (Neal and Perron) but one part Minnesota’s stupidity at losing two players instead of one.

    You have to weave a fancy web to turn this into a story about chemistry. First, all these players weren’t protected, in many cases in order to preserve the chemistry of their existing teams. Second, none of these players were chosen on the basis of chemistry, how could they have been, they played on different teams. Third, the Knights were immediately successful, which puts a temporal limitation on the chain of cause and effect you would have to construct.

    The lessons here are obvious.

    Talent is the only thing that matters.
    NHL teams are bad at evaluating talent.
    Chemistry follows winning, winning doesn’t follow chemistry.
    NHL teams will misinterpret the reasons for this success. Indeed, Mcphee has already begun squandering his good fortune with the absurd at the time Tatar deal.

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra: Dave Tallon

    Dave Tallon is a great GM. We should hire his brother Michael/Dale.

  46. Side says:

    Cassandra:

    You have to weave a fancy web to turn this into a story about chemistry.First, all these players weren’t protected, in many cases in order to preserve the chemistry of their existing teams.Second, none of these players were chosen on the basis of chemistry, how could they have been, they played on different teams.Third, the Knights were immediately successful, which puts a temporal limitation on the chain of cause and effect you would have to construct.

    Chemistry follows winning, winning doesn’t follow chemistry.

    Really curious to know what your definition of ‘chemistry’ is.

  47. digger50 says:

    I feel it will be Zadina that drops significantly, followed by numerous d men. Forwards will account for 5-6 if the top ten picks, leaving Edmonton with some good choices available for defenders.

    This will be tough on Peter as though he stated he liked the group of d in the draft, he really wants a forward. Farabee

    Just opinion.

  48. Connoreah says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Vegas has 3 lines under 50% GF and one line at 68%GF this year with the best goalie in the NHL via all situations SV%.

    Their speed worked well vs LAK and SJS but don’t forget Fleury running north of .940 in those two series.

    The best way I can sum up VGK is:

    1) great line
    2) no line that gets killed like most team’s 4th
    3) great goalie
    4) Schmidt anchoring 1st pair, Theodore anchoring 2nd pair and a decent 3rd pair

    They don’t have the shitty 4th line or 3rd pair like manyGMs saddle their coach with.

    Thanks Woodguy. That makes sense for 2017-18, but I’m probably not articulating myself well enough given the 2 responses I’ve seen. I’ll try to be more clear by playing devils advocate…. in 5 years someone will write:

    The 2017-18 Vegas Knights proved that intangibles can be crucial to success in the NHL. Nobody in the hockey world thought they would succeed. They were – for the most part – a group of players without a history of strong possession numbers, shot-share, ability to ‘drive a line’, or 5v5 points/60 (again, this could be inaccurate – I’m making an assumption here). Most of the players were viewed as disposable by their previous teams. But they came together as a group, had strong leadership, good characters in the dressing room, a great team culture, and bonded over a commitment to prove everyone wrong. And they won (or almost won) the Stanley Cup.

    Is the statement above defensible? Is it fair to say Vegas’ success is due in large part to intangibles? Or were there underlying analytics that foreshadowed the success of this team in October 2017?

  49. Connoreah says:

    innercitysmytty:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    WG, I think the heart of what he was asking was whether there were any previous statistical indicators on these players before they got drafted by Vegas that they would perform this way once there. That’s my read but may be wrong.

    Precisely. That is the heart of the question.

  50. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    This is a frankly delusional interpretation of Lowetide’s position.

    He has gone miles out of his way to try and defend the trade and put it in perspective to the point where he often comes across as a defender of Chiarelli.

  51. Cassandra says:

    Connoreah: Precisely. That is the heart of the question.

    Smith and Marchesault (especially) were good players, but no indication someone like Karlsson was going to score 40 goals.

    Schmidt, C. Miller and Theodore all had good, but not especially long, track records. Not surprised they have been good but you couldn’t say they were sure things.

    Perron put up a career high in points. That has to be a surprise. Neal is right on target, maybe slightly disappointing.

    Fleury was better than you could expect.

    Haula and Tuch both scored more than you could expect.

    But if you are looking for the x factor here I don’t know why someone would go with something mystical rather coaching/systems/opportunity to explain the improvement.

    The other conclusion I would make is that we over emphasize the importance of roles/degree of competition. A third line center is just a second line center with worse teammates and less opportunity. A second pairing D isn’t doing anything different than a first pairing D. It is the same game. Find a guy having success in one role and he can have success in another role. There is nothing magical about lines or roles.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    CopaFrank:
    Should we be worried that Koskinen is not playing in the World Championships?

    He would be but he’s got a minor injury (I believe hamstring).

  53. Connoreah says:

    Cassandra: We can divide these up into proximate causes to see where the credit and blame should lie.

    The biggest explanation for the success is the Marchesault, Smith, Karlsson line.That is one part luck (Karlsson) and one part Dave Tallon who in effect traded Marchesault and Smith for Alex Petrovic and a 4th round pick.

    That was an incredibly stupid thing to do by the non-computer nerd and is the single biggest reason for the success of the Knights.

    Lesson: get good players keep good players.

    Their defensive is surprisingly good.This is one part nature of the expansion draft (Schmidt and C. Miller being available) and one part mistake by Anaheim (Shea Theodore).

    The depth is also good.This is one part nature of the expansion draft (Neal and Perron) but one part Minnesota’s stupidity at losing two players instead of one.

    You have to weave a fancy web to turn this into a story about chemistry.First, all these players weren’t protected, in many cases in order to preserve the chemistry of their existing teams.Second, none of these players were chosen on the basis of chemistry, how could they have been, they played on different teams.Third, the Knights were immediately successful, which puts a temporal limitation on the chain of cause and effect you would have to construct.

    The lessons here are obvious.

    Talent is the only thing that matters.
    NHL teams are bad at evaluating talent.
    Chemistry follows winning, winning doesn’t follow chemistry.
    NHL teams will misinterpret the reasons for this success.Indeed, Mcphee has already begun squandering his good fortune with the absurd at the time Tatar deal.

    Interesting. With respect to your “obvious lessons:”

    Talent is the only thing that matters —- did you, or anyone else here, identify a cup contender in Vegas in October 2017? All that talent – did you see it? Can you point me to your post where such an observation was made?

    NHL teams are bad at evaluating talent —– see previous question

    Chemistry follows winning, winning doesn’t follow chemistry —– this seems to be backwards. Vegas had no history of winning. They came together, had immediate chemistry based on the characters on the team, then won. Seems pretty straight forward, no?

    NHL teams will misinterpret the reasons for this success.Indeed, Mcphee has already begun squandering his good fortune with the absurd at the time Tatar deal —- Ok? I guess?

    I guess I’d find your argument more compelling if it wasn’t 100% based on hindsight. Nothing in your post suggests that Vegas wasn’t successful this year based primarily on what are described as intangibles, and I didn’t see a single person on this blog predict this success, despite being very smart people. So my question stands.

  54. Connoreah says:

    Cassandra: Smith and Marchesault (especially) were good players, but no indication someone like Karlsson was going to score 40 goals.

    Schmidt, C. Miller and Theodore all had good, but not especially long, track records.Not surprised they have been good but you couldn’t say they were sure things.

    Perron put up a career high in points.That has to be a surprise.Neal is right on target, maybe slightly disappointing.

    Fleury was better than you could expect.

    Haula and Tuch both scored more than you could expect.

    But if you are looking for the x factor here I don’t know why someone would go with something mystical rather coaching/systems/opportunity to explain the improvement.

    The other conclusion I would make is that we over emphasize the importance of roles/degree of competition.A third line center is just a second line center with worse teammates and less opportunity.A second pairing D isn’t doing anything different than a first pairing D.It is the same game.Find a guy having success in one role and he can have success in another role. There is nothing magical about lines or roles.

    In October 2017, if you lined up the Knights roster against the Oilers roster, which team was more likely to make it to the Finals this year based on the metrics you value most? In other words, if you were to line up each position (Oilers: 1C, 2C, 3C…. 1LD, 2LD, 3LD, etc. versus Vegas players) who comes out as most likely to do well this past year? I think this would be really interesting if you’re willing to stand behind your position?

    Also, what’s mystical about a group of guys that really get along, having a common goal (proving their old teams wrong) with very high motivation factor in play?

  55. jtblack says:

    “NHL teams are bad at evaluating talent.”

    +1

  56. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    You make some great points (impatient owner for sure is a factor) but my view on Hall for Larsson has never changed despite great efforts by many posters here. It isn’t a mortal blow to Chiarelli but coupled with other backfires I think he’s close to the end of the line.

    That said, you could have said the same thing about Jim Devellano many times in Detroit before the Red Wings won it all.

  57. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Connoreah

    Also, what’s mystical about a group of guys that really get along, having a common goal (proving their old teams wrong) with very high motivation factor in play?

    It’s mystical because it can’t be quantified and is nearly impossible to predict.

    Which bothers certain people.

  58. Side says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: It’s mystical because it can’t be quantified and is nearly impossible to predict.

    Which bothers certain people.

    What do you mean? NHL players are hockey automatons. Relationships between players, chemistry, motivation, ability to lead/follow leadership are all intangibles, therefore, they do not matter and should not matter.

  59. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide:
    Bag of Pucks,

    You make some great points (impatient owner for sure is a factor) but my view on Hall for Larsson has never changed despite great efforts by many posters here. It isn’t a mortal blow to Chiarelli but coupled with other backfires I think he’s close to the end of the line.

    – I do recall you though during that playoff run, when Larsson be all stud like, taking care of business, imposing his authoriti, making a huge impact, huge minutes first-line awesomness: many had said stuff like to the effect that: “ok, I get why we traded for Larsson”

    – You have also be calling for the Chia to get fired for a long time. After that trade, you suggested Chia was in trouble, and after the first few games where Talbo struggled that year, you amplified it

    – One day Chia will be gone, and it will be easy to point to why, and we will get a better GM

  60. SwedishPoster says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: It’s mystical because it can’t be quantified and is nearly impossible to predict.

    Which bothers certain people.

    The key here is the words impossible to predict. Ofcourse there exist such a thing as coming together as a team, finding a common goal, being more than the sum of your parts. But the idea that you can add good locker room guys, the right mix of personalities to create that is in my experience pretty much pointless. First of all because evaluating who’s good in a locker room is almost impossible, the guys people claim are good locker room guys are usually just either strong personalities or close with the guys saying they are good locker room guys. It comes down to personal bias. It also changes with different teams.
    It’s also very much due to coincidence, a good start, a couple of bounces, something to rally around, Vegas had that in spades, a few players finding their mojo and pulling others along.

    It’s as stated more or less impossible to predict.

    And at the end of the day you still need talent enough to be competitive. All the stuff above is just a way to have players who are confident and comfortable but that won’t matter without talent.

  61. ohhell says:

    Connoreah,

    Their performance for an entire season and through the playoffs suggests quality players. Not trying to detract from intangibles like coaching, cast off motivation or team chemistry, but their on-ice performance over time suggests quality throughout the lineup relative to other teams. I have no data evidence to support my assertion other than watching them play against top opponents throughout the year.

  62. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I do recall you though during that playoff run, when Larsson be all stud like, taking care of business, imposing his authoriti, making a huge impact, huge minutes first-line awesomness: many had said stuff like to the effect that: “ok, I get why we traded for Larsson”

    – You have also be calling for the Chia to get fired for a long time.After that trade, you suggested Chia was in trouble, and after the first few games where Talbo struggled that year, you amplified it

    – One day Chia will be gone, and it will be easy to point to why, and we will get a better GM

    I’ve never hidden my view of Adam Larsson. He’s an effective shutdown defender and that player has value for me. I don’t recall writing anything overly negative about Larsson.

    As for calling for Chiarelli to be fired, I have had several dm’s over the last year chiding me for defending him and not calling for his firing. Suspect it depends on the subject being discussed.

  63. Connoreah says:

    SwedishPoster: The key here is the words impossible to predict. Ofcourse there exist such a thing as coming together as a team, finding a common goal, being more than the sum of your parts. But the idea that you can add good locker room guys, the right mix of personalities to create that is in my experience pretty much pointless. First of all because evaluating who’s good in a locker room is almost impossible, the guys people claim are good locker room guys are usually just either strong personalities or close with the guys saying they are good locker room guys. It comes down to personal bias. It also changes with different teams.
    It’s also very much due to coincidence, a good start, a couple of bounces, something to rally around, Vegas had that in spades, a few players finding their mojo and pulling others along.

    It’s as stated more or less impossible to predict.

    And at the end of the day you still need talent enough to be competitive. All the stuff above is just a way to have players who are confident and comfortable but that won’t matter without talent.

    Okay. Again to play devil’s advocate: Couldn’t the exact same argument be made with respect to advanced statistics? Yes you can have talented players, guys who have great possession numbers, guys who can drive a line, but unless you have strong leadership in the dressing room, commitment from the top down, good characters and chemistry within the group, you won’t be successful in the NHL.

    Otherwise, guys like Cassandra would be billionaires because they’d be able to predict success every year. But that’s not what happens. It’s mostly just using hindsight to portray others as dumb when, in fact, nobody here is able to predict anything.

  64. VOR says:

    I am wondering if I am the only person here that knew Claire Drake. If I am I want to tell 3 quick Coach Drake stories that sum up my experience of the man.

    Many years ago Coach Drake tried to save my hockey career by converting me from goal to defence. It was a lost cause and I am pretty sure we both knew it before we started. But he committed 100% to it and so did I. And he let me be the one to pull the plug. He treated me with nothing but respect and I have tried to model him in my own coaching career. And believe me I am not alone in that.

    I never expected we’d meet again and that I would get to know Claire in an entirely different context. But eventually I returned to the UofA and since I was coaching and lecturing in the same complex we would see each other pretty much every day. Neither of us being exceptional extroverts we seldom spoke and when we did it was a standard exchange of pleasantries.

    Then one day he pops by my office, tiny broom closet, plunks himself down in a chair and says, “I have a problem. I’m hoping you can help. It is about Elsa. I think she is really struggling and I can’t figure out why. I thought maybe you could ask her what’s up.”

    Elsa was a freshman in University and that can be a trying transition. But Coach Drake had seen thousands of kids go through that. He was saying more was going on.

    Elsa was also a world class athlete, the real deal. I’d coached Elsa in high school a bit. But now she was being coached by a persnickety (and I am being kind) coach. Rule 1 of coaching at a large institution you never, ever, mess around in the relationship between another coach and one of their athletes.

    “I tried talking to Coach X about it a few weeks ago. She told me to mind my own business. But things have gotten worse.

    “I know Elsa has biomechanics with you. I figured it gives you an excuse. And you know Elsa.” Claire continued.

    Okay, right off the top you have to know what a small community a university athletic department is to understand what happened from here.

    Elsa turned in my mid term, on which she got 100%. But didn’t sign her name. Which gave me an excuse. I got one of my team captains who knew Elsa really well to come looking for Elsa with me. He brought some friends. We found her wandering the halls being incoherent. It was my team captain and a dozen other UofA athletes from a variety of teams that convinced her to see a doctor. Today we’d call it an intervention.

    Long story short Elsa had been starving herself for weeks. We put an end to that (or rather Claire did once I had identified the problem) and she went on to have a long career as an athlete and a coach. And nobody ever criticized me for jumping in. The persnickety coach even thanked me, well in her way.

    There were 122 students, all freshmen, in Claire’s class. He noticed one, who he saw a few hours a week, was in trouble and reached out to get her help. Not the only time he did that either. As an educator I have tried damn hard to be that present and that aware.

    This brings us to my favourite Claire Drake story. Claire was teaching I think it was Coaching Theory when he gets into a serious argument with one of the students. The student, let’s call her Betsy was one of my athletes. Betsy said, “All due respect Coach Drake but I think you don’t know what you are talking about.” Claire thinks about for a few moments and says, “Betsy, you know what, I think you’re right.” Betsy thanked him for admitting it, got up and left. In the middle of class.

    Later that day, and by then I had heard the story, Claire pops by my broom closet, which I am now sharing with three other people. “We’ve got to get Betsy out of Faculty of Phys Ed. Years of coaching, years of teaching and she takes one look and teaches me stuff I’ve never thought of before. She was right. I have been doing it wrong all these years. And until today, even though she is my top student, I would have sworn she was sleeping through the class.

    “Talking to her it is clear at heart she is a scientist. She is wasted here. I thought maybe you could get her to switch.”

    I explained Betsy was in Phys Ed because she didn’t have the marks for science.

    “Don’t worry about that. If you can convince her to switch I will pull some strings and make it happen.”

    Betsy got a PhD in a hardcore science and is in the midst of a groundbreaking career as a scientist and and engineer. She and Claire became friends. He took some pleasure in telling the story to students over the years. My understanding is that several times Claire had Betsy teach that part of Coaching Theory.

    I try to bring that kind of humility into every class room I enter.

    Claire the coach impressed me, but Claire the colleague inspired me and continues to inspire me. I am betting I am not alone in that either.

    Thanks for letting me share. I wish you had all had the chance to know Claire. You’d never think about coaching or education the same way again. God broke the mould after making Claire.

  65. Connoreah says:

    ohhell:
    Connoreah,

    Their performance for an entire season and through the playoffs suggests quality players.Not trying to detract from intangibles like coaching, cast off motivation or team chemistry, but their on-ice performance over time suggests quality throughout the lineup relative to other teams.I have no data evidence to support my assertion other than watching them play against top opponents throughout the year.

    Sure. Looking back at this past year. But my point is that going into this year, the fancy stats didn’t predict this. Something else contributed to their success, unless you believe all of the players on the roster were always really good, and just waited until this year to show it.

    Maybe the problem is that fancy stats are great for describing what happened in the past, but much less so for predicting the future? I’m not saying they have no predictive value, only that there are things that we don’t measure that have equal or more impact on success. At least, the Vegas example seems to be suggesting so.

  66. dustrock says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I do recall you though during that playoff run, when Larsson be all stud like, taking care of business, imposing his authoriti, making a huge impact, huge minutes first-line awesomness: many had said stuff like to the effect that: “ok, I get why we traded for Larsson”

    – You have also be calling for the Chia to get fired for a long time.After that trade, you suggested Chia was in trouble, and after the first few games where Talbo struggled that year, you amplified it

    – One day Chia will be gone, and it will be easy to point to why, and we will get a better GM

    I’ve never heard or read anything by LT like that.

    He’s been very complimentary to Larsson, but the caveat has always been “but the price was too dear”.

    I’ve never seen him deviate from that.

  67. dustrock says:

    VOR,

    Really cool, thanks.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Canada and Latvia going to OT, tied at 1.

    The big ice can be such an evening factor – a solid defensive system that pushes the play to the outside massively stifles offence as the puck is so far from the net) and really allows some of the middle teams to compete against the top teams (the middle teams like Latvia, etc. not the teams like Korea, France, etc. that are just overwhelmed).

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid scores in OT.

  70. Yeti says:

    VOR,

    Great stories VOR. I hope the message about humility – which is aptly personified by the host of this blog – rubs off on some of those posting comments today.

  71. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    dustrock: I’ve never heard or read anything by LT like that.

    He’s been very complimentary to Larsson, but the caveat has always been “but the price was too dear”.

    I’ve never seen him deviate from that.

    – He was very complementary of Larsson. And kind of conceded in that playoff run why it *might* be something that made sesne, given his performance

    – He has also beated the drum to different amplications about Chia being gone: it started in earnest after the slow start 2 years ago, died done as that season progressed. Now it’s amped up

    – LT’s right: Chia’s very vulnerable: he knows it, as does everyone in hockey and here…

  72. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for this: very telling. All of us would like to have stories like this told about ourselves

    – VOR – I’d like to reach out to you and send an email. I don’t want to share my email/social details here: how might we get in touch? I can send LT perhaps, and he can send me your details?

  73. Jordan says:

    In all honesty, I find the whole situation really hilarious.

    (Please note, I’m sure there are counter examples for these sweeping statements, so feel free to bring them up – this is mostly narrative to summarize a trend I’m seeing.)

    The management team has screwed themselves on the free agent player signings, after working really hard for a long number of years to maintain cap flexibility. But it’s not the contracts themselves that are attrocious. Its who they signed, and for how long.

    They’ve also done the same thing with the draft – their drafting has been okay, but not great since Chiarelli arrived. But what’s killed them is sending picks away for poor value players. Or, in the case of the coach and GM, as compensation for hiring staff who were under contract with another organization, but that’s more of the NHL screwing them than them screwing themselves.

    Now, the oilers have a long history of parting ways with players that are clearly capable, but who have worked their way off our team, and find success elsewhere. There’s also a long history of spinning those moves by members of the MSM to the fanbase. But, historically they didn’t want to piss away futures to try and get better right now. They knew the value of those picks, and of having control of the player, and the cheap contracts. Since Katz bought the team, and even moreso since Connor and Chia came to town, the team is using all its resources to find good players NOW. They just aren’t hitting many good players, and when they do, they can’t afford to keep them because of the poor cap management.

    But right now… what they have done with both situations is ruin what could have been a real advantage by giving it away through poor professional scouting. Its the exact opposite of what successful organizations do – they structure their plan to highlight their strengths, and minimize their weaknesses. Here, they’ve maximizing the impact of their weakness, at the expense of what was once strengths.

  74. VOR says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    VOR,

    Thanks for this: very telling.All of us would like to have stories like this told about ourselves

    – VOR– I’d like to reach out to you and send an email.I don’t want to share my email/social details here: how might we get in touch?I can send LT perhaps, and he can send me your details?

    If LT is prepared to facilitate I would be happy to connect.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – He was very complementary of Larsson.And kind of conceded in that playoff run why it *might* be something that made sesne, given his performance

    – He has also beated the drum to different amplications about Chia being gone: it started in earnest after the slow start 2 years ago, died done as that season progressed.Now it’s amped up

    – LT’s right: Chia’s very vulnerable: he knows it, as does everyone in hockey and here…

    My public declaration regarding PC was positive when he was hired, hopeful. I expressed the Reinhart deal was an overpay but was generally pleased with year one. I began turning on him as Oilers general manager with the Hall trade and was frankly baffled by the Eberle deal/no additional help on RW.

    He can recover the good ship Oiler but he can’t keep losing these trades.I have no problem stating that as a fact, genuinely surprised anyone would contest it.

  76. Lowetide says:

    Kinger/VOR more than happy to. Kinger, you can email me and I will send a note connecting you.

  77. blainer says:

    Mark me down as not overly happy with the Hall trade but we got an excellent D in return.

    Larsson will make us all feel much better about the trade next year. I am predicting Larsson’s best and a career year for him in 2018/2019.

  78. Todd Macallan says:

    blainer,

    With how he is performing at the WHC currently, I’m inclined to agree.

  79. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Vegas has 3 lines under 50% GF and one line at 68%GF this year with the best goalie in the NHL via all situations SV%.

    Their speed worked well vs LAK and SJS but don’t forget Fleury running north of .940 in those two series.

    The best way I can sum up VGK is:

    1) great line
    2) no line that gets killed like most team’s 4th
    3) great goalie
    4) Schmidt anchoring 1st pair, Theodore anchoring 2nd pair and a decent 3rd pair

    They don’t have the shitty 4th line or 3rd pair like manyGMs saddle their coach with.

    I think you have a pretty good handle on it. I would add that the coach has done a truly great job. He found a system of play that best fit a roster with at the time no true star. He then gave them a cause ( something like( lets show them all ) Them all,being the teams that chose to let them be available. Consider they already had that as a common bond! To get a group of people to bond you must give them a common goal, a common enemy and or they must have had a common experience. Now that the bond has ben formed establishing your team culture is much easier. In this case they all had someting to prove! Add in a little early success and they began to believe in themselves and in one another. As they grew as a team their capacity to take on new responsibilities also grew. The end result is what we now see!

    P

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rondo: They do have Jacob De La Rose who will be an excellent shutdown center.

    He would be a great pickup for the Oilers .

    I really like Paul Byron too, did they still play him at C last year?

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: MTL – *trades for Winger*

    MTL – “we don’t have any centers”

    MTL – *Let’s make him a Center!*

    MTL – “we don’t have any centers”

    *hits like button*

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: Hall who then clarified he did listen to the coaches.

    Just not the Oilers coaches. His trade was always about a lack of submission. Same stupid MO from the Oilers.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Connoreah: Thanks Woodguy. That makes sense for 2017-18, but I’m probably not articulating myself well enough given the 2 responses I’ve seen.I’ll try to be more clear by playing devils advocate…. in 5 years someone will write:

    The 2017-18 Vegas Knights proved that intangibles can be crucial to success in the NHL. Nobody in the hockey world thought they would succeed. They were – for the most part – a group of players without a history of strong possession numbers, shot-share, ability to ‘drive a line’, or 5v5 points/60 (again, this could be inaccurate – I’m making an assumption here). Most of the players were viewed as disposable by their previous teams. But they came together as a group, had strong leadership, good characters in the dressing room, a great team culture, and bonded over a commitment to prove everyone wrong. And they won (or almost won) the Stanley Cup.

    Is the statement above defensible? Is it fair to say Vegas’ success is due in large part to intangibles? Or were there underlying analytics that foreshadowed the success of this team in October 2017?

    I do not doubt that will be written about VGK.

    I think the biggest lesson is “everyone under valued the players they acquired”

    I though their Dcorps was weak past Schmidt and Miller.

    I had no idea that Theodore was up to anchoring a 2nd pair.

    I’ve never liked Flurry, but he’s been better last few years, but amazing this year.

    The funny thing is that *I knew* that playing decent players with plugs turns a line into a “plug line”

    GMoney’s research into this for WoodMoney showed us this years ago. That’s why any line that has a “Gritensity” is a “Gritensity” line unless an Elite player is on it, but then it’s “Middle” and not “Elite”

    Who you play with matters a ton.

    Most teams have “Gritensity” players. These are players who are tweeners/new NHLers or “gritty” types who get killed on the scoresheet.

    I haven’t looked closely at VGK but I bet they don’t have too many of these guys.

  84. leadfarmer says:

    Connoreah,

    People really need stop calling Karlssons season luck. His scoring the vast majority of his goals from very high danger scoring areas (below the hash marks and between on a odd man break or when the goalie has to move to make a save, best way to beat a butterfly goalie or a tip in). As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra: Smith and Marchesault (especially) were good players, but no indication someone like Karlsson was going to score 40 goals.

    Schmidt, C. Miller and Theodore all had good, but not especially long, track records.Not surprised they have been good but you couldn’t say they were sure things.

    Perron put up a career high in points.That has to be a surprise.Neal is right on target, maybe slightly disappointing.

    Fleury was better than you could expect.

    Haula and Tuch both scored more than you could expect.

    But if you are looking for the x factor here I don’t know why someone would go with something mystical rather coaching/systems/opportunity to explain the improvement.

    The other conclusion I would make is that we over emphasize the importance of roles/degree of competition.A third line center is just a second line center with worse teammates and less opportunity.A second pairing D isn’t doing anything different than a first pairing D.It is the same game.Find a guy having success in one role and he can have success in another role. There is nothing magical about lines or roles.

    This statement is too sweeping. Not all players are equal with the difference being opportunities.

    The difference is talent and work ethic. I agree they all do the same job in a given position but Strome can’t be a great first line centre no matter who his wingers are. He’ll play better with good players but he can’t be Stamkos or Monahan.

    Benning can’t be Larsson. At least yet but probably ever because he’s basically the same age.

  86. who says:

    Connoreah: Thanks Woodguy. That makes sense for 2017-18, but I’m probably not articulating myself well enough given thei 2 responses I’ve seen.I’ll try to be more clear by playing devils advocate…. in 5 years someone will write:

    The 2017-18 Vegas Knights proved that intangibles can be crucial to success in the NHL. Nobody in the hockey world thought they would succeed. They were – for the most part – a group of players without a history of strong possession numbers, shot-share, ability to ‘drive a line’, or 5v5 points/60 (again, this could be inaccurate – I’m making an assumption here). Most of the players were viewed as disposable by their previous teams. But they came together as a group, had strong leadership, good characters in the dressing room, a great team culture, and bonded over a commitment to prove everyone wrong. And they won (or almost won) the Stanley Cup.

    Is the statement above defensible? Is it fair to say Vegas’ success is due in large part to intangibles? Or were there underlying analytics that foreshadowed the success of this team in October 2017?

    I think you are making the Vegas evaluation more complicated than it really is. You are trying to assign some sort of value to this team’s so called “chemistry”.
    All Vegas really proves is that a team with good goaltending and a bunch of NHL caliber players can make the playoffs. They may not have any superstars but these guys are not castoffs. Other than 1 or 2 salary dumps these are all players that their teams wanted to retain. They just couldn’t because of the expansion rules.
    It really is that simple.
    I’m not sure they can win a cup without some top end talent but obviously the players they have are good enough to get to the final four.

  87. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    Undervalued hall!

    What Bullshit!

    Hall was 20g 52p (just top 60) fad last 2 yr Edm and first yr NJ.
    Who could not stay healthy for 14 games a season.
    Were he was replaced by #13-17 fad resulting in 30-40 win %in those games.
    Greatly handicappingoilers playoff chances.

    That was his value as an Oiler in the WC.

    Hall who stated he did not listen to the coaches

    That’s why Sabres need to ditch Eichel for low price cause he can’t stay healthy right?
    The game has been progressing to a speed game. Not realizing this cost Chia huge.
    There’s a reason the fast skilled players like Hall and McKinnon had career years and young guys like Barzal are killing it.
    Since the trade day players like Halls value has gone up, Larsson who I like btw has gone down

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: Smith and Marchesault (especially) were good players, but no indication someone like Karlsson was going to score 40 goals.

    Schmidt, C. Miller and Theodore all had good, but not especially long, track records.Not surprised they have been good but you couldn’t say they were sure things.

    Perron put up a career high in points.That has to be a surprise.Neal is right on target, maybe slightly disappointing.

    Fleury was better than you could expect.

    Haula and Tuch both scored more than you could expect.

    But if you are looking for the x factor here I don’t know why someone would go with something mystical rather coaching/systems/opportunity to explain the improvement.

    The other conclusion I would make is that we over emphasize the importance of roles/degree of competition.A third line center is just a second line center with worse teammates and less opportunity.A second pairing D isn’t doing anything different than a first pairing D.It is the same game.Find a guy having success in one role and he can have success in another role. There is nothing magical about lines or roles.

    This reminds me of what is being written about the Jets.

    Former Lowetide on IOF poster “Showerhead”‘s name is Murat Ates.

    He is the ” beat writer” for the Jets for The Athletic.

    He’s done a phenomenal job asking the players and coach about their forecheck, neutral zone and Dzone, PK and PP systems.

    He asked smart questions and the players/coaches seem to appreciate it as they are very forthcoming with the answers.

    Murat marries their view with video and excellent descriptions and gives us an inside look on what they are doing, why they are doing it and why it’s working/not working.

    So when I look at WPG and see they are executing what the coach is asking them to do almost perfectly and with speed and power I can appreciate why they are successful, as can any reader of Murat’s.

    On the other hand we are getting now is a lot of written pieces about WPG’s “identity” and other fluffy stuff.

    The PHWA (Professional Hockey Writers Association) tend to write a lot about feelings and attribute success to other nebulous things and not a lot about hockey, which is funny given their name.

    It’s great to see someone actually writing about hockey and what hockey things the team does to win hockey games.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I expected Schmidt Miller and Theodore to do well. Theodore was a huge loss according to Ducks fans last year. I thought they shot themselves in the foot with the TVR trade. I really did not think they could survive Engelland garrison and Sbisa.

  90. Munny says:

    Nice to see Skinner was signed today.

    Sorry if it has been mentioned, but I didn’t see it above.

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: It’s mystical because it can’t be quantified and is nearly impossible to predict.

    Which bothers certain people.

    My biggest beef with this argument is:

    “Why hang success on ” intangibles” when there are so many tangible reasons?

    Why ignore this the results on the ice?

    It baffles me sometimes.

    “Why is VGK good”

    Well they did this, this and this and these players achieved this this and this.

    There’s lots to dissect there without worrying about feelings.

    Remember – 23rd place EDM had a winning record vs. VGK and also vs the Pacific divison.

    Maybe the Pacific is this year’s version of the old Southeast (Southleast) division and everyone under estimated the quality of players and coach, including their own GM (based on his actions he didn’t expect them to make the playoffs either)

    There’s lots of hockey reasons for this stuff without people making subjective conclusions on how VGK players are feeling from 2000 miles away.

  92. Munny says:

    Don’t discount the effect the Vegas shootings had on uniting that Knights team. At the onset of the playoffs the players were still talking about its impact and the wonderful speech Engelland gave for the opening of Game 1, which was a couple of days after the tragedy. The whole town got behind them then.

  93. Munny says:

    VOR,

    Thank you so much for this.

  94. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: What do you mean? NHL players are hockey automatons. Relationships between players, chemistry, motivation, ability to lead/follow leadership are all intangibles, therefore, they do not matter and should not matter.

    Why worry about all that stuff when more reasonable reasons exist?

    Why move to this stuff when “everyone really underestimated their talent and coaching” explains a lot of it?

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ohhell:
    Connoreah,

    Their performance for an entire season and through the playoffs suggests quality players.Not trying to detract from intangibles like coaching, cast off motivation or team chemistry, but their on-ice performance over time suggests quality throughout the lineup relative to other teams.I have no data evidence to support my assertion other than watching them play against top opponents throughout the year.

    I think coaching is very tangible fwiw

    It’s just tougher to quantify.

  96. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Andrej Sekera: Insult to injury 2017-18 brings doubt about the future

    https://theathletic.com/352995/2018/05/14/andrej-sekera-insult-to-injury-2017-18-brings-doubt-about-the-future/

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Why do you find it do hard to day:

    “Larsson is a good Dman, but Hall was too much to pay”

    The guy is up for the Hart for christsakes.

    Everyone makes mistakes and every day gets things wrong.

    It’s not a shame to admit it.

    It’s a shame not to.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    It does amaze me how much credit Steve Chevaldoff-tambellini is getting for his team. He’s only already regretting both of his big 4 mil a year contracts in their first year with Kulikov and Mason riding pine this offseason. In a year he’s going to lose a face card level player because of that stupidity. Good thing for him he lucked into a generational amateur scouting department.

  99. digger50 says:

    I feel the players in Vegas all benefited from a fresh start. This sounds too simple. By that I mean the GM and coach were able to erase preconceived notions about where a player fits and where they are most valuable. They looked just at talent and heart, without biased.

    “He is a tweener”. “He’s a fourth liner” “one dimensional winger“ or whatever.

    Many of these guys got the opportunity to re-write thier role and thier value.

    Have to give a lot of credit to coaching. And hard not to reflect on other coaches who may take over a team and almost instantly hang tags on players, make assumptions, and are influential in shipping out players rather than coaching them to try and extract thier best.

  100. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Why do you find it do hard to day:

    “Larsson is a good Dman, but Hall was too much to pay”

    The guy is up for the Hart for christsakes.

    Everyone makes mistakes and every day gets things wrong.

    It’s not a shame to admit it.

    It’s a shame not to.

    The cost is dependant on the need, real or percieved. I believe as you do that Hall was a huge over pay. Looking at first pairing right shot D men the cost was high assuming one became available at that time. It realy makes the Petry trade smell!

  101. who says:

    leadfarmer:
    It does amaze me how much credit Steve Chevaldoff-tambellini is getting for his team.He’s only already regretting both of his big 4 mil a year contracts in their first year with Kulikov and Mason riding pine this offseason.In a year he’s going to lose a face card level player because of that stupidity.Good thing for him he lucked into a generational amateur scouting department.

    What is the term left on those 2 contracts?
    Chevy is getting the credit he deserves for building a really talented, incredibly deep team. What is the problem with that?

  102. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer: That’s why Sabres need to ditch Eichel for low price cause he can’t stay healthy right?
    The game has been progressing to a speed game.Not realizing this cost Chia huge.
    There’s a reason the fast skilled players like Hall and McKinnon had career years and young guys like Barzal are killing it.
    Since the trade day players like Halls value has gone up, Larsson who I like btw has gone down

    How is the speed is the new skill working so far for Tampa. Skill encompases more than speed although it is the rime ingredient!

  103. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    It does amaze me how much credit Steve Chevaldoff-tambellini is getting for his team.He’s only already regretting both of his big 4 mil a year contracts in their first year with Kulikov and Mason riding pine this offseason.In a year he’s going to lose a face card level player because of that stupidity.Good thing for him he lucked into a generational amateur scouting department.

    It’s winning. If the Oilers were where the Jets are now, the fans would still be overlooking the Reinhart trade. We didn’t hear much about it until Barzal went crazy, and if Edmonton was still in the playoffs people would say Chiarelli’s risks worked out. It’s human nature.

    Sam Pollock lost hall of fame goalie Tony Esposito on waivers to Chicago and missed the playoffs the next season. Montreal won Stanley the following year and Ken Dryden made people forget about the mistake.

  104. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: So when I look at WPG and see they are executing what the coach is asking them to do almost perfectly and with speed and power I can appreciate why they are successful, as can any reader of Murat’s.

    On the other hand we are getting now is a lot of written pieces about WPG’s “identity” and other fluffy stuff.

    Is ‘buying in’ a form of intangible? i.e. a team chemistry where key players set the tone that implementing a system – no matter how hard or counterintuitive – is an absolute necessity. No cheating for offence, no wavering if things don’t always work out. Is team commitment to a coaching plan part of identity?
    (an honest question – not a rhetorical one).

  105. who says:

    Lowetide: It’s winning. If the Oilers were where the Jets are now, the fans would still be overlooking the Reinhart trade. We didn’t hear much about it until Barzal went crazy, and if Edmonton was still in the playoffs people would say Chiarelli’s risks worked out. It’s human nature.

    Sam Pollock lost hall of fame goalie Tony Esposito on waivers to Chicago and missed the playoffs the next season. Montreal won Stanley the following year and Ken Dryden made people forget about the mistake.

    I don’t think it’s as simple as winning or not winning.
    People are trying to compare this summers Oilers to last summers Jets. It’s not a good comparison.
    Even after missing the playoffs last year any casual observer could see all the young talent and depth bubbling up in Winnipeg. And a solid core of veterans in place.
    Does anyone see this pipeline of young talent in Edmonton? I don’t. Edmonton may have Mcdavid but they can’t match Winnipegs young cheap depth. I think we are 2 or 3 years away from that day.

  106. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Why worry about all that stuff when more reasonable reasons exist?

    Why move to this stuff when “everyone really underestimated their talent and coaching” explains a lot of it?

    *Begin tangent*

    I don’t think it should be worried about. I would never encourage a very talented player be traded for a less talented guy just because the less talented guy is “good in the locker room”.

    But the Golden Knights are still an anomaly and a big question mark, imo. Will all of the pleasant surprises on the Golden Knights be able to repeat this going forward? I don’t think so. I think this year of theirs will be an outlier and they won’t be able to repeat their dominance next year or the year after.

    I think the players (who were undervalued) and the coach (who is pretty good at using his guys) came in incredibly motivated at the beginning of the season and wanted to make a statement. I’m sure all of them had heard ad nauseum that they would be at the bottom of the league and they were a terrible team going into this season. The expectations set for them were low, and I’m sure other teams underestimated them. All it takes is a good stretch of games for these guys and then they start gaining confidence in the system and eachother. Confidence is a hell of a drug in sports, it can make or break teams and individual efforts and it can ruin seasons.

    Now with that said, I’m not saying they got this far because of intangibles, that because they “gave it 110%” or “played for eachother” or “had good leadership in the room” or whatever cliche you want to bring in got them to this point. I just think it’s absurd for people to discredit intangibles as if they don’t matter. The intangibles are baked into results and can’t be separated. I think this is something some people need to get over instead of trying to make it seem like the intangibles don’t matter.

    *End tangent*

  107. Lowetide says:

    who: I don’t think it’s as simple as winning or not winning.
    People are trying to compare this summers Oilers to last summers Jets. It’s not a good comparison.
    Even after missing the playoffs last year any casual observer could see all the young talent and depth bubbling up in Winnipeg. And a solid core of veterans in place.
    Does anyone see this pipeline of young talent in Edmonton? I don’t. Edmonton may have Mcdavid but they can’t match Winnipegs young cheap depth. I think we are 2 or 3 years away from that day.

    If Chiarelli’s bets on Puljujarvi and Yamamoto come in, and he at least addresses the bottom six, McDavid and Talbot can take this team a long way. Oilers STILL have a lot of talent, incredibly.

  108. Pretendergast says:

    Vegas through the first month of the season:

    CF%: 48.10 22nd in the league
    Sh%: 10.50 5th
    Sv%: 93.07 7th
    PDO: 1.036 3rd

    January on:
    CF%: 51.42 10th in the league
    Sh%: 7.82 16th
    Sv%: 92.33 13th
    PDO: 1.002 16th

    ‘confidence is a helluva drug’ indeed, they rode the hot start to an 8-3 record, even when the percentages dropped down their possession stats settled in (after the allstar break sample size), looks like they turned from a hot team to a legitimate, if slightly middling, team, all without any ‘superstars’.

    Playoffs anything can happen.

  109. Munny says:

    Lowetide: Sam Pollock lost hall of fame goalie Tony Esposito on waivers to Chicago and missed the playoffs the next season. Montreal won Stanley the following year and Ken Dryden made people forget about the mistake.

    Not to mention it was a Game 7 victory against the same Tony O, winning 3-2 on a shot Tony probably still wants back.

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Connoreah,

    People really need stop calling Karlssons season luck.His scoring the vast majority of his goals from very high danger scoring areas (below the hash marks and between on a odd man break or when the goalie has to move to make a save, best way to beat a butterfly goalie or a tip in). As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    Look at WIlliam Karlsson’s hockey history: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/19432/william-karlsson

    No history of scoring too much.

    Then shoots 23.4%.

    You said:

    . As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    I’d really like to bet on this.

    Stakes?

  111. Lowetide says:

    Munny: Not to mention it was a Game 7 victory against the same Tony O, winning 3-2 on a shot Tony probably still wants back.

    I have wondered for decades what would have happened if Esposito wins that Stanley. Pollock would have survived but that was going to be the last game for Beliveau and Henri Richard was trying to strangle coach |Al MacNeil between periods.

  112. who says:

    Maybe.
    Yes Edmonton has talent, but takeaway Mcdavid and it’s not even close between the teams.
    Schefflie is slightly better than Drai
    Wheeler is better than Nuge.
    Laine is way better than JP, so far.
    Little is better than Strome.
    We have no answer for Connor or Ehlers.
    We have Kharia and posiibly Kassian as depth forwards. Winnipeg has Lowry, Copp, Tanev, Armia, Perrault. We don’t even have a Dano or Petan. And we certainly didn’t have a Roslovic or Appleton percolating in the minors!
    The Oilers have a deeper left side on the blue line but not by a bunch. And the right side is not even a contest! The Jets are deeper than anyone in the league.
    To summarize, the Oilers have the most talented player in the league, and 5 or 6 other high end pieces. But it is a steep drop to the proven depth players, and there are not a lot of them.
    I think it takes at least 2 years to get to where the Jets were last summer. Probably three.

  113. rickithebear says:

    Lead farmer:

    I went back and looked at what skills repeated in Cup/ conf final teams.

    The cup/ conf final teams told me?

    HDSh sys coach
    Top 10 HDsave% goalie 1 per 3 teams
    3+ top 40 (prev 60) HD sys coach; 4 HD d per 3 teams
    Highest cummulative Top 125 fwd total
    Increased EVG production from 1-2 bottom 6 fwds.
    +ve goal diff special team

    This is how I look at trade valuation.

    Lead farmer give Your cup winning insight into how championship winning teams are built and how it affects trade value.

    Thier are 28 loser teams each year and 2 championship teams. ( thanks for reminding LT)

    You trade to be a champion!

    Not to be a loser!

    Larsson Top 5 hd dman (1 per 6 teams) for hall Top 60 fwd ( 2 per team)
    Larsson s availability / halls availability = 6/.5. = 12/1
    Larsson had 12 times harder availability.
    This was no fucking one to one.

    If hall was the fwd he was in NJ the trade would still be in favour of Larsson.
    5 yrs Larsson for 4 years of Hall
    He who gets the best the longest wins.

  114. Munny says:

    Lowetide: I have wondered for decades what would have happened if Esposito wins that Stanley. Pollock would have survived but that was going to be the last game for Beliveau and Henri Richard was trying to strangle coach |Al MacNeil between periods.

    Well it was a while before they were Champs again in any case, but you just know that Montreal media would have started riots Spring ’71.

    In my head the Bruins won that Cup, lol. Same as 73.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VGK lines for the season:

    (note: I got this data March 25th, probably didn’t change much at the end of the season)

    All line denoted by 5v5 TOI/gm

    1st line
    46.4% GF
    48.6% CF

    2nd line
    66.7% GF
    53.2% CF

    Bottom 6
    48.2% GF
    49.7% CF

    Those bottom 6 number are very good. Top 10 in the NHL I think.

    Top line of Neal + Perron + was ok, but got beat. That’s to be expected for an expansion team.

    2nd line killed the world.

    Everyone calls them their “top line” but they did not see top comp, nor did the HC put them out the most 5v5.

    Looks like the coach managed them well.

    Also,

    There were 56 goalies who played at least 1000 minutes this year.

    Fleury was 2nd (behind Carter Hutton…what is it with “Carter H” goalies?) in all situation SV% with .9308 (Hutton was .9309)

    Also for RIckbox fans, his expected goals against/60 5v5 was 23rd in the NHL w/ 2.76, actual GA/60 was 2.14, 2nd behind Hutton.

    These things are tangible.

    They are not widely known so people talk about things that are not tangible.

    But like Murat, if you know the tangible things, it allows you to ask tangible questions because tangible things are tangible.

  116. Munny says:

    Cinderfellas go up 2-0 on the…. well, Cinderfellas.

    Marchessault scored. Probably heard WG dissing him. 😉

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    All line denoted by 5v5 TOI/gm

    1st line
    46.4% GF
    48.6% CF

    2nd line
    66.7% GF
    53.2% CF

    Bottom 6
    48.2% GF
    49.7% CF

    Those bottom 6 number are very good. Top 10 in the NHL I think.

    For comparison sake:

    EDM

    1st line
    GF% 55.2
    CF% 53.0

    2nd line
    GF% 46.9
    CF% 49.9

    Bottom 6
    GF% 40.4
    CF% 49.5

    You can see in the bottom 6 that some shitty luck, shitty goalering and shitty shooting hurt them badly.

    Good team comparison for VGK:

    WPG
    Top line
    GF% 56.3
    CF% 49.7

    2nd line
    GF% 54.1%
    CF% 54.0

    Bottom 6
    GF% 54.6
    CF% 50.9

    Yeah, that’s what a very, very good team looks like.

    VGK isn’t a very good team.

    Doing well in the playoffs, won the Pacific, but a few yards from being very good.

  118. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My biggest beef with this argument is:

    “Why hang success on ” intangibles” when there are so many tangible reasons?

    Why ignore this the results on the ice?

    It baffles me sometimes.

    “Why is VGK good”

    Well they did this, this and this and these players achieved this this and this.

    There’s lots to dissect there without worrying about feelings.

    Remember –23rd place EDM had a winning record vs. VGK and also vs the Pacific divison.

    Maybe the Pacific is this year’s version of the old Southeast (Southleast) division and everyone under estimated the quality of players and coach, including their own GM (based on his actions he didn’t expect them to make the playoffs either)

    There’s lots of hockey reasons for this stuff without people making subjective conclusions on how VGK players are feeling from 2000 miles away.

    I want to start by saying in my experience great athletes usually have immense talent and let’s say the right kind of character for their sport.

    Additionally anybody who has made it to the NHL is far more talented than casual observers typically realize.

    Vegas was given gifts of immense and readily apparent talent by Florida and others. Some other gifts they found hidden under bushes. But that is truly a talented hockey team. That alone is enough to explain their success.

    This would sound like I agree with you. And in many ways I do. But any fair evaluation of Vegas’ success ultimately boils down to unexpected goal scoring and tremendous goaltending.

    Which brings us to the simple question of why now?

    Maybe Marc Andre Fleury has just never had teammates this good.

    Nope that ain’t it.

    Maybe Marc Andre Fleury is just entering his prime years.

    Nope that ain’t it.

    Maybe Marc Andre Fleury has never had such good coaches.

    Nope that ain’t it.

    So why now?

    Repeat for William Karlsson.

    So why now?

    Years ago the Wizard, when asked why Florida, said “I got lucky. It was the right fit. From day one I knew this was the place for me.” When asked what made Florida the right place he said, “I don’t know. It just was. The team and I clicked.” From waiver wire to stardom in a matter of days. Ray Whitney is the poster child for the importance of fit. This isn’t so much intangible as unmeasurable.

    I am betting if you asked Karlsson and Fleury why Vegas they’d probably say something very similar.

    Isn’t that what we mean when we say chemistry? The unmeasurable quality of fit.

    As for why some people seek a larger narrative filled with emotion to explain Vegas I’d argue humans seek meaning and some people prefer a big picture synthesis of all the factors. A tapestry rather than the view through a microscope. The minute you entertain that kind of analysis things like responding to a terrible mass shooting are fair components of the analysis, as are players wanting to give their old teams a royal fuck you.

    Does this sort of analysis appeal to those who live to reduce, dissect, and quantify minutiae? Of course not. Is it every bit as valid? Absolutely.

    So my honest and well meant response to your not understanding why people bring emotion and character into the discussion of Vegas when it clearly isn’t necessary is your preference for your dominant approach to analyzing your environment blinds you to the richness of their discourse. You chose to see it as them being wrong and foolish. I chose to look at it as them offering a broader more wholistic view that supplements rather than supplants my more “rational” approach.

  119. Pretendergast says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    WG, how does Nashville and Tampa stack up? Have a hunch Tampa is loaded and Nashville was much softer on the bottom 6

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I expected Schmidt Miller and Theodore to do well. Theodore was a huge loss according to Ducks fans last year.I thought they shot themselves in the foot with the TVR trade.I really did not think they could survive Engelland garrison and Sbisa.

    I liked Theodore too, but that’s a loooooong ways from anchoring a 2nd pair in the NHL.(Engelland was not good away from him)

    Shit, VGK started him in the AHL and didn’t bring him up until injuries forced the issue.

    I guess GMGM didn’t know it either. 🙂

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Is ‘buying in’ a form of intangible? i.e. a team chemistry where key players set the tone that implementing a system – no matter how hard or counterintuitive – is an absolute necessity. No cheating for offence, no wavering if things don’t always work out. Is team commitment to a coaching plan part of identity?
    (an honest question – not a rhetorical one).

    Its funny, when I read what I wrote I asked myself the same question.

    It probably is.

    “how hard do the players work their system and why?” is a reasonable question.

    But my experience in watching and grinding data forever is “most players buy in, do what they’re being told to do and try hard”

    They’re pros and most ask like pros.

    WPG just has a lot of good players doing that and not a lot of bad players doing that.

    Good goaltending helps too.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Munny: Well it was a while before they were Champs again in any case, but you just know that Montreal media would have started riots Spring ’71.

    In my head the Bruins won that Cup, lol. Same as 73.

    That 1971 Bruins team was my favorite team of youth. They scored goals by the dozen.

  123. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is the what, not the why. There isn’t necessarily a why. Or maybe there’s a whole bunch of little whys. But they’re still reasonable questions.

    Shit, VOR already went there, much better than I. That’s what I get for BBQing, watching hockey and Lowetiding at the same time. Apologies.

  124. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    1972 for me, because I was just old enough to appreciate what I was seeing.

    Was ’73 the penalty against Orr with 2.5 minutes to go against the Fly? That moment taught me Sports Anger. It didn’t help that my dad had taken the other Bobby in our living room wagers.

  125. Oilman99 says:

    Pretendergast:
    We’re drafting a defenceman, Chiarelli said as much in the end of season presser. If they’re somehow all gone I suspect a trade down.

    Where did this forward drafting idea come from, is it just what people want?

    The team needs more quality forwards in the system if they have any hope of getting to the point where they are contenders. It is imperative to good value players in the system in order to stay out of cap hell.

  126. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    Lowetide,

    1972 for me, because I was just old enough to appreciate what I was seeing.

    Was ’73 the penalty against Orr with 2.5 minutes to go against the Fly?That moment taught me Sports Anger. It didn’t help that my dad had taken the other Bobby in our living room wagers.

    The penalty against Orr came in 1974. Bucyk got called for a clear dive on Barber ((I think) with five minutes left and Bruins down 1-0. They killed it but had little time left. Barber sent a puck to center, MacLeish sent a little pass to Clarke who was away. Orr caught him, separated and spun Clarke. Refs called a penalty. After all the crap Philly got away with, tough pill to swallow.

    It is at 1 hour 33 minutes of this video

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e78IkizgPw

  127. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you. But I’m not sure if I can watch it yet. Still too soon.

    That began a long stretch of disappointment.. the 75 World Series, the Montreal Olympics, the Tony Gabriel catch, the Habs Dynasty, etc.

    And then Gretz arrived. And everything started coming up Milhouse.

  128. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    Lowetide,

    Thank you. But I’m not sure if I can watch it yet. Still too soon.

    That began a long stretch of disappointment.. the 75 World Series, the Montreal Olympics, the Tony Gabriel catch, the Habs Dynasty, etc.

    And then Gretz arrived. And everything started coming up Milhouse.

    HOW did Gabriel get that far open on one leg?

  129. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra: We can divide these up into proximate causes to see where the credit and blame should lie.

    The biggest explanation for the success is the Marchesault, Smith, Karlsson line.That is one part luck (Karlsson) and one part Dave Tallon who in effect traded Marchesault and Smith for Alex Petrovic and a 4th round pick.

    That was an incredibly stupid thing to do by the non-computer nerd and is the single biggest reason for the success of the Knights.

    Lesson: get good players keep good players.

    Their defensive is surprisingly good.This is one part nature of the expansion draft (Schmidt and C. Miller being available) and one part mistake by Anaheim (Shea Theodore).

    The depth is also good.This is one part nature of the expansion draft (Neal and Perron) but one part Minnesota’s stupidity at losing two players instead of one.

    You have to weave a fancy web to turn this into a story about chemistry.First, all these players weren’t protected, in many cases in order to preserve the chemistry of their existing teams.Second, none of these players were chosen on the basis of chemistry, how could they have been, they played on different teams.Third, the Knights were immediately successful, which puts a temporal limitation on the chain of cause and effect you would have to construct.

    The lessons here are obvious.

    Talent is the only thing that matters.
    NHL teams are bad at evaluating talent.
    Chemistry follows winning, winning doesn’t follow chemistry.
    NHL teams will misinterpret the reasons for this success.Indeed, Mcphee has already begun squandering his good fortune with the absurd at the time Tatar deal.

    Surely, part of their success must be chemistry or intangibles, along with good coaching. They have multiple players having career years, some of them blowing the doors off anything they have done in the past. What if Vegas regresses bigtime next year? What will the explanation be? There will be plenty of that next year. I don’t care how many open nets someone gets gifted, no one in this league sustains a shooting percentage of 25%.

  130. Munny says:

    Lowetide: HOW did Gabriel get that far open on one leg?

    Look at him trying to “run”. That was a true WTF moment.

  131. Munny says:

    Cinderfellas get one back. Gonna be interesting.

  132. Munny says:

    Beauty goal from Marchessault, who proceeds to thumb nose at Woodguy.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I liked Theodore too, but that’s a loooooong ways from anchoring a 2nd pair in the NHL.(Engelland was not good away from him)

    Shit, VGK started him in the AHL and didn’t bring him up until injuries forced the issue.

    I guess GMGM didn’t know it either.

    Well nothing wrong with sending a young player to Ahl to start the season. Hey kid you want the job then work on the things we tell you to. Kyle Conner started season in Ahl before potting 30.
    Ducks made the mistake of hey we can’t be breaking in both Theodore and Montour at the same time. And then they traded Vatanen to plug the injured and ageing forward corps. A year ago they looked so deep on D

  134. --hudson-- says:

    One thing this postseason has taught me is how Jekyll & Hyde most teams in the NHL are. It’s not just the Oilers that look out of sync one night and top of the world the next. I sure hope it’s not PEDs that are responsible for the discrepancy.

  135. JimmyV1965 says:

    SwedishPoster: The key here is the words impossible to predict. Ofcourse there exist such a thing as coming together as a team, finding a common goal, being more than the sum of your parts. But the idea that you can add good locker room guys, the right mix of personalities to create that is in my experience pretty much pointless. First of all because evaluating who’s good in a locker room is almost impossible, the guys people claim are good locker room guys are usually just either strong personalities or close with the guys saying they are good locker room guys. It comes down to personal bias. It also changes with different teams.
    It’s also very much due to coincidence, a good start, a couple of bounces, something to rally around, Vegas had that in spades, a few players finding their mojo and pulling others along.

    It’s as stated more or less impossible to predict.

    And at the end of the day you still need talent enough to be competitive. All the stuff above is just a way to have players who are confident and comfortable but that won’t matter without talent.

    And I think those intangibles may not be sustainable. The chemistry that is there today may be gone tomorrow. Ultimately, talent and skill and coaching rules the day. Will be fascinating too see what happens there next year. Clearly they are good. But how good?

  136. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Look at WIlliam Karlsson’s hockey history: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/19432/william-karlsson

    No history of scoring too much.

    Then shoots 23.4%.

    You said:

    . As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    I’d really like to bet on this.

    Stakes?

    +1

  137. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Connoreah,

    People really need stop calling Karlssons season luck.His scoring the vast majority of his goals from very high danger scoring areas (below the hash marks and between on a odd man break or when the goalie has to move to make a save, best way to beat a butterfly goalie or a tip in). As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    That sounds like a bet to me, one I would be very much interested in taking up. Maybe we could do it for charity. There is simply no way he shoots 25% again.

  138. sliderule says:

    I think that the oilers shouldn’t bail on LB

    No matter what you think of his play with the big club he was the best they had in AHL with a save percentage of .912.

    The year before in just 8 games he posted 1.99 ga and save percentage of around .920 with the big club.

    This encouraged the oil to sign him as back up and he failed.The question is with the way the coaches ran the PK and relied on worn out vets would any goalie been able to shine.

    He has had quality seasons in AHL and as their best minor pro goalie it doesn’t make sense to throw away the only one they have that has had some success.

  139. Ari says:

    LT,

    I don’t contribute much at all, but these blogs always find a way to keep me interested in a playoff-less season.. With the Numbers, history, and entertainment, you and your posters are phenomenal. In these times of ugly social media, I appreciate the respect – though strained at times – everyone has for each other here.

  140. Munny says:

    Showerhead’s voice on TV!

  141. JimmyV1965 says:

    pts2pndr: How is the speed is the new skill working so far for Tampa. Skill encompases more than speed although it is the rime ingredient!

    The funny thing about Vegas. They don’t have a bunch of particularly fast players. I just saw Buff blow by a couple Knights here in the third period. He ain’t slow, but he’s definitely not fast. But they execute and play with pace so they’re a fast team. The whole speed thing has grown a life of its own. If a team executes, they will be fast.

  142. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    Lead farmer:

    I went back and looked at what skills repeated in Cup/ conf final teams.

    The cup/ conf final teams told me?

    HDSh sys coach
    Top 10 HDsave% goalie 1 per 3 teams
    3+ top 40 (prev 60) HD sys coach; 4 HD d per 3 teams
    Highest cummulative Top 125 fwd total
    Increased EVG production from 1-2 bottom 6 fwds.
    +ve goal diff special team

    This is how I look at trade valuation.

    Lead farmer give Your cup winning insight into how championship winning teams are built and how it affects trade value.

    Thier are 28 loser teams each year and 2 championship teams. ( thanks for reminding LT)

    You trade to be a champion!

    Not to be a loser!

    Larsson Top 5 hd dman (1 per 6 teams) for hall Top 60 fwd ( 2 per team)
    Larsson s availability / halls availability = 6/.5. = 12/1
    Larsson had 12 times harder availability.
    This was no fucking one to one.

    If hall was the fwd he was in NJ the trade would still be in favour of Larsson.
    5 yrs Larsson for 4 years of Hall
    He who gets the best the longest wins.

    Would Larsson still qualify as a top 5 HD Dman after his 2 yrs in Edmonton?

    That is, if Larsson was the Dman he is in Edmonton, would the trade still be in his favour?

  143. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: That sounds like a bet to me, one I would be very much interested in taking up. Maybe we could do it for charity. There is simply no way he shoots 25% again.

    Maybe not at 25% but without a doubt a 30 goal scorer. People think he will one and done but I think he will be 30-40 goal scorer for years. So depends on your line in the sand

  144. unca miltie says:

    Lowetide: HOW did Gabriel get that far open on one leg?

    I was there and still cant believe it happened

  145. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Larsson doesn’t pass well enough to be a top defenseman in today’s league. He can but he doesn’t if that makes sense.
    Cup teams need first of all a good goalie that is hot at the right time. And needs to be fresh enough at the end of the season that’s why I’m completely against a starter playing more than 60 games.
    You need luck from injuries and lots of it.
    Depth on forwards. The 3rd line guys seem to have a lot more impact as a lot of teams top lines cancel each other out and injuries force these guys into more prominent role
    Speed on each line. Top defensive units really get tired out chasing these guys
    Defensemen that are good at defending. Larssons value is much higher for a playoff team than a non playoff team. Facing Larsson 7 games in a row for a skilled forward is very physically and mentally tough (top forwards get frustrated in one game let alone 7 and Larsson is very frustrating to play against)
    Defensemen that move the puck well. Defensive systems are really hard to break down. You need to attack before they get setup

  146. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Look at WIlliam Karlsson’s hockey history: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/19432/william-karlsson

    No history of scoring too much.

    Then shoots 23.4%.

    You said:

    . As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    I’d really like to bet on this.

    Stakes?

    Actually Karlsson’s offensive numbers back in Sweden were really good and suggest a top 6 nhler. Once he got to the NHL he was put in a more defensive role. When Vegas picked him up he was again used in a scoring role and ran with it. He’s told swedish media that much at least, before Vegas he was asked to be a different player. So he was.

  147. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Look at WIlliam Karlsson’s hockey history: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/19432/william-karlsson

    No history of scoring too much.

    Then shoots 23.4%.

    You said:

    . As long as Marchessault keeps feeding him those tasty morsels i would not expect his shot percentage to drop much

    I’d really like to bet on this.

    Stakes?

    A woodguy for 30 goals over under I’d do. 70 games played or more as stipulation as not a fair bet if he gets injured and misses half the season

  148. leadfarmer says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Cbus throwing assets at Vegas for them to not pick Anderson really backfired.

  149. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: Maybe not at 25% but without a doubt a 30 goal scorer. People think he will one and done but I think he will be 30-40 goal scorer for years.So depends on your line in the sand

    Hmm. I would probably peg him at 25, but if he increases his shot total I guess he can do 30. Not sure. I guess my line in the sand is 40. There’s no way he does 40.

  150. Wilde says:

    VOR:

    So my honest and well meant response to your not understanding why people bring emotion and character into the discussion of Vegas when it clearly isn’t necessary is your preference for your dominant approach to analyzing your environment blinds you to the richness of their discourse. You chose to see it as them being wrong and foolish. I chose to look at it as them offering a broader more wholistic view that supplements rather than supplants my more “rational” approach.

    I’d contest that the majority of their discourse as frail and tired.

    Much of what is written in regards to hockey games, when it comes to emotion and character, can be nearly word-for-word predicted by simply knowing the result of the game.

    Now, this would be okay if the discourse was about what /happened/, but frequently feelings-alchemy analysis is employed in predictive discussion.

    If there’s a big hit, and the team whose player laid the hit scores within the next minute, the colour commentator will talk about the ‘setting of the tone’ or some such resulting in the goal.

    One could fairly easily predict what will be written about each of the remaining four teams should they win the cup.

    Even though most of what /should/ be written about hasn’t happened yet.

    SwedishPoster: Actually Karlsson’s offensive numbers back in Sweden were really good and suggest a top 6 nhler. Once he got to the NHL he was put in a more defensive role. When Vegas picked him up he was again used in a scoring role and ran with it. He’s told swedish media that much at least, before Vegas he was asked to be a different player. So he was.

    Yes, Karlsson’s numbers in the SuperElit league came up suggestive of top-6 potential when I was looking through the league’s history for comparisons for Berggren.

    –hudson–:
    One thing this postseason has taught me is how Jekyll & Hyde most teams in the NHL are.It’s not just the Oilers that look out of sync one night and top of the world the next.I sure hope it’s not PEDs that are responsible for the discrepancy.

    It’s not.

    But yeah, every team and player is inconsistent… I peruse a lot of other fanbases forums, and every one of them share a bingo card of criticisms like inconsistency, their goalscorers being ‘invisible’ every game they don’t score, lack of acknowledgement of goaltending except after shutouts, lots of stuff.

    Also, the most over-hated tactic ever is the drop-pass before zone entry attempts on the 5v4. It’s incredibly effective but frequently criticised.

  151. Biggus Dickus says:

    Wilde: I’d contest that the majority of their discourse as frail and tired.

    Much of what is written in regards to hockey games, when it comes to emotion and character, can be nearly word-for-word predicted by simply knowing the result of the game.

    Now, this would be okay if the discourse was about what /happened/, but frequently feelings-alchemy analysis is employed in predictive discussion.

    If there’s a big hit, and the team whose player laid the hit scores within the next minute, the colour commentator will talk about the ‘setting of the tone’ or some such resulting in the goal.

    One could fairly easily predict what will be written about each of the remaining four teams should they win the cup.

    Even though most of what /should/ be written about hasn’t happened yet.

    Yes, Karlsson’s numbers in the SuperElit league came up suggestive of top-6 potential when I was looking through the league’s history for comparisons for Berggren.

    It’s not.

    But yeah, every team and player is inconsistent… I peruse a lot of other fanbases forums, and every one of them share a bingo card of criticisms like inconsistency, their goalscorers being ‘invisible’ every game they don’t score, lack of acknowledgement of goaltending except after shutouts, lots of stuff.

    Also, the most over-hated tactic ever is the drop-pass before zone entry attempts on the 5v4. It’s incredibly effective but frequently criticised.

    What you discuss here is simply the laziness of the media, or perhaps it is the ability of the human mind to find patterns. It’s the same reason you can predict the news fairly accurately. For example, you know that first hurricane will result in a half dozen articles about how storms are getting worse because of climate change, despite the fact (and I’m paraphrasing a paper I don’t quite remember the details of) that statistical significance of the uptick cannot be justified for close to 100 years. It’s the same tired stuff again and again. Another example is that Collaros will throw 1 td in preseason, and there will be some percieved qb controversy. Ditto Ray and Franklin in TO.

    I tend to chalk it up to lazy journalism. I think that was the biggest backlash against “fancy” stats. “We have to justify our statements? Not on my watch!!!”. The good old days when you could scribble out an incoherent yarn and insert a few coaches quotes.

  152. Wilde says:

    Biggus Dickus,

    Yeah.

    There’s a minority that both a) actually describes the events that occurred accurately and b) writes with requisite talent, taste and insight to differentiate themselves and deliver good reading.

    I think an underrated part about the internet breaking down long-established infrastructure in the sports journalism field is that you can read something from across about their very different town team and set of circumstances, and find churning out the same clichés and spinning the same whipping boy wheel with just some different names.

    Most of the talk is about how there’s only ad revenue etc because that paints the media as a victim of some kind of economic injustice as opposed to being exposed for having a weak, un-competitive product.

  153. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: Hmm. I would probably peg him at 25, but if he increases his shot total I guess he can do 30.Not sure. I guess my line in the sand is 40. There’s no way he does 40.

    40 is a very high line in the sand. Very few players hit 40 every year. That puts the entire risk of injury, slow start after long run, UFA not resigning, Karlsson and Marchessault split up on me. I don’t think he gets 40 next year but I think 30-40

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