Blowin’ in the Wind

The last time the Edmonton Oilers hit home runs in both the first and second rounds of an NHL draft, it was 1993—even that’s cheating because David Vyborny waited for another round of expansion to find his way. However, Jason Arnott, Vyborny and 1993 have to be included, because the Oilers have never (aside from 1993) had a first and a second round pick play in more than 500 NHL games. Perhaps we’ll see a change in the weather this time. (Photo by Rob Ferguson).

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

  • New Tyler Dellow: How Canada’s teams look on strong side v. weak side faceoffs
  • New Lowetide: Keegan Lowe can help the Edmonton Oilers (will link)
  • New Jonathan Willis: When the Oilers changed course, Eric Gryba got thrown overboard
  • New Jonathan Willis: A look at which Oilers could stay and which could go this summer
  • New Lowetide: Everything you ever wanted to know about Joel Persson but were afraid to ask.
  • Lowetide: Ethan Bear says hello, but is not yet NHL-ready.
  • Lowetide: Andrej Sekera: Insult to injury.
  • Jonathan Willis: Yohann Auvitu: Oilers need to get more from players like him.
  • Jonathan Willis: Matt Benning brings value to the Oilers.
  • Scott Wheeler: Final Draft Rankings 2018.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

2018 DRAFT

Two weeks from today, June 1, I’ll have my final 2018 list to share with you. I’m about 30 into the project (rankings and notes will be new on every player), very little change in the top group but a couple of tweaks you may enjoy. The top 10 remains the top 10, in a slightly different order (some late breaking news and scouting reports). After that, it’s a little more fluid but for the most part the names will remain the same. Although I can’t produce the list today, here’s a quick mock that might reflect the draft for Edmonton.

  • First Round—No. 10 overall—RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Edmonton doesn’t shop the QMJHL often, but Noah Dobson is a quality pick at No. 10 overall. Good size, speed and coverage, he also has a fine shot and can pass the puck very well, great vision in the offensive zone. He can transport the puck, but passing is his strength. He is now listed at 6.03, 179, meaning he has gained an inch and 15 pounds in the last season. From what I’m reading, he has a very nice range and calm feet. Two-way defender but he’s quality in both areas.
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall—RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL)A flat out OHL rookie (he played for St. Andrew’s College in Aurora, Ontario in ’16-17), I’m surprised he isn’t getting more love. He is 5.11, 168, intelligent offensive center. Central Scouting says nice things (“Smaller dynamic skilled player, first year in OHL and plays like a veteran. Very quick and powerful stride with skater – good quickness and acceleration – uses his speed as an asset on the forecheck or when reacting to a loose puck – smart player with good vision and passing skills – plays in important situations including the power play and penalty kill – good compete and battle in all areas of the ice”) and his numbers (60, 20-39-59) as a rookie stand out to me.
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall—L Sampo Ranta, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Strong skater and a born shooter, Ranta is a little under the radar but has all kinds of positives. Ranked No. 7 in the USHL with 193 shots on goal, he is No. 5 in shots per game. Scored 23 goals, 14 at even strength. One dimensional but he can scoot and score.
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya covered the condition).
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overall—L Justin Almeida, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). I have gone and talked myself into this guy as a strong draft option, but there isn’t much buzz on him so maybe Edmonton can grab him in the fifth round. Spiked as a scorer, always had a good two-way reputation. Nice prospect.
  • Sixth Round— No. 164 overall—G Veini Vehvilainen, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). I’ve had him on or close to every list since 2015, and it’s too late to stop now. He has been a consistent goaltender for years, made the All-Star team and won best goalie award.
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overallL Michal Kvasnica, Ocelari Trinec (Czech). Smart two-way winger.

SCOUTS AND THE DRAFT

Since Peter Chiarelli arrived in Edmonton, the scouting staff has had to sit through the second round (2015, 2017), the third round (2015), fourth round (2016, 2018). Will the club trade that first-round pick?

I’ve always wondered how much trading picks impacts a scouting department. Peter Chiarelli had to trade two of those picks (to Boston and San Jose for Chiarelli and McLellan) and I have a hard time getting upset about fourth-round picks. The first and second in 2015 were devastating and of course more picks were traded away that weekend for Cam Talbot and Eric Gryba.

If the Oilers are truly concerned with building up the system and having a strong graduating (to pro) class two years from now, Peter Chiarelli will keep his powder dry and Edmonton will make the picks in Rounds One and Two.

THE SECOND ROUND

  • 2008: No second-round selections (Kevin Lowe) (MacGregor)
  • 2009: Anton Lander (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2011: David Musil (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Tyler Benson (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: No second-round selections (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)

Not a lot to show for 10 years worth of second rounds. The 2010 draft boasted three picks from this round, Martin Marincin (177) and Tyler Pitlick (138) both hanging in. Anton Lander (215) is the only player in the group with over 200 NHL games.

Hartikainen photo by Rob Ferguson

2008 HARVEST MOON

Back in 2008, my draft evening post was called ‘Draft Summary’ but I did have a take on each of the selections. Since most of that era’s posts are no longer publicly available, I thought it might be a good idea to post those initial takes for previous drafts. Here is 2008.

  • Round One: RW Jordan Eberle- A perfect combination. A strong argument can be made that Eberle was the best player available and he certainly addressed a need (shooter) in the system. He’s a May 1990 and 16 (tied for 4th in the WHL) of his 42 goals (tied for 4th in the WHL) came on the powerplay. A quality pick and immediately one of the 5 best prospects in the system (I’ll rank them all next weekend with a new top 20).
  • Round Two: None. Kevin Prendergast stated the price was so ridiculous they decided to sit and wait where they were. Kevin Lowe said they might have moved up had they pulled the trigger on the 2 needs for the NHL team (top 2line F and toughness) but the extra NHL and fringe talent (Stoll, Torres, Pouliot, Schremp, Jacques) was held back for another day.
  • Round Three: None. There was still quality on the table at this time and most certainly the Bourret trade at #90 is a tell that the Oilers could have been in the mix (the two teams involved, NYR and Phoenix, are “Oiler friendly” and one imagines Edmonton decided not to offer a superior talent to Bourret which is not a difficult task). We all have our opinions, but I think Edmonton needed to pay their way in to the third round and pick up another asset with Jacques. Perhaps I’m overvaluing the player, but Bourret is no screaming hell I’ll tell you that much right now.
  • Round Four: D Johan Motin. A solid, if unspectacular pick and generally speaking we adopt this player type as our own when the Oilers brass give the seal of approval. Stay at home type with size and a mean streak, he apparently can be exposed in areas and is no sure thing. Still he’s rather safe for the 4th round and my bet is he’ll play at some point in time with the big club.
  • Round Five: LW Phillippe Cornet. His scouting report reads like a pure tweener. He’s skilled but he isn’t fast, he’s got some try but isn’t overly physical. Somewhat similar to Stephane Goulet at first glance, but players with his resume taken in the fifth round do not have a terrific history of success. This is where the Kyle Brodziak’s of the world, the plumbers, find their homes and begin the long process of grinding themselves into useful role players. A real long shot from here.
  • Round Six: C Teemu Hartikainen. This is the type of player who can get somewhere from this point in the draft. Good size and strength combination, he has feet of clay but some pluck and desire. Finns seem to be genetically predisposed to playing well in the North American style and based on his resume this fellow would seem like a worthy candidate. The third most valuable player taken by the Oilers this weekend.
  • Round Seven: D Jordan Bendfeld. Tough as nails enforcer who will go right to pro (he’s a draft re-entry, former Coyote selection). This is an organizational hire who someone in management likes for what might be a variety of reasons. There are probably 100 kids with more talent that didn’t get drafted today and another 100 with the same talent who could be signed as minor league free agents tomorrow. I don’t think these kinds of picks are terribly wise simply because it’s a bullet in the organizational gun and you might as well pick a “draft and follow” player who may emerge as something else again one year from now.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back, baby! At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. NHL playoffs, WHC’s and McDavid’s sweet pass to victory.
  • Jay Ball, GM FC Edmonton. Massive week for soccer in this province, the latest on the Eddies.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Scott’s off-season game plan for the Oilers tackles all of the issues we’ve discussed and comes up with a fascinating answer.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. The Jets need a win tonight.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

OILERS SIGN PERSSON

Edmonton has signed young Joel Persson to a one-year contract but he’ll play in Vaxjo (SHL) for one more season. It’s an unusual thing to do but not unheard of, Edmonton did the same thing with William Lagesson. Possible reasons: Organization may feel he needs to build on success and have more experience at SHL level before coming over; player may have balked at idea of playing season in the AHL and both sides agreed more development time in Sweden would benefit more than Bakersfield; Oilers may not have room on the Condors to assure max. playing time. Thoughts?

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178 Responses to "Blowin’ in the Wind"

  1. JamesL says:

    Edmonton Oilers
    ‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers

    The #Oilers have signed defenceman Joel Persson to a one-year contract & will assign him to the Vaxjo Lakers of the Swedish Hockey League for the 2018-19 season.

  2. Lowetide says:

    JamesL: Interesting. So they are staggering these defensemen. I would have thought Persson would be a candidate this year more than next.

  3. Yeti says:

    Hmmm. That Bendfeld pick. He could have been signed to a minor league contract with no need to waste an asset, no matter how small. Do other organizations habitually do this kind of thing?

  4. Yeti says:

    JamesL,

    Huh? Does that mean the one-year contract slides until 2019-20?

  5. meanashell11 says:

    Lowetide:
    JamesL: Interesting. So they are staggering these defensemen. I would have thought Persson would be a candidate this year more than next.

    Don’t most of these Euro leagues have an out if an NHL position opens up?

  6. Andy Dufresne says:

    The past predicts the furture. The pick gets traded.

    Bakersfield gets filled in with College boys and Europeans.

    When you look at all those lists from previous years, how many guys outside the first two rounds do like over the new Persson kid?

  7. SwedishPoster says:

    JamesL:
    Edmonton Oilers
    ‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers

    The #Oilers have signed defenceman Joel Persson to a one-year contract & will assign him to the Vaxjo Lakers of the Swedish Hockey League for the 2018-19 season.

    Ha, a few weeks ago, before he was even rumoured to sign, I wrote that I wanted them to do exactly this. Is this spot where the new red wine summits are taking place?

  8. Andy Dufresne says:

    SwedishPoster: Ha, a few weeks ago, before he was even rumoured to sign, I wrote that I wanted them to do exactly this. Is this spot where the new red wine summits are taking place?

    An astute move by a quality GM?
    .
    Certainly an astute call by a quality poster! Well Done.
    .
    You are literally the only guy Ive read that saw that coming.

  9. dustrock says:

    So what”s the point of the Persson move?

    You get his rights, see how he does this year, can sign him to an extension, but he doesn’t cost a roster spot?

    Not bad.

  10. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Making the slow play on development might not be a terrible idea. They didn’t rush Klefbom or Nurse like they have with scores of other prospects… might be valuable to give that same strategy a whirl once more.

  11. SwedishPoster says:

    Andy Dufresne: An astute move by a quality GM?

    Well he’s obviously started to listen to the right people…

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock:
    So what”s the point of the Persson move?

    You get his rights, see how he does this year, can sign him to an extension, but he doesn’t cost a roster spot?

    Not bad.

    Its nice to be one of the RICH franchises as opposed to the have not franchise we were for so many years. Thank you Daryl Katz?

  13. leadfarmer says:

    dustrock,

    Perfect. Bringing these guys over too early is a mistake teams make too often and nothing burns bridges faster than playing a player in AHL when he would have rather stayed at home. Those teams are doing a good job developing players

  14. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock:
    So what”s the point of the Persson move?

    You get his rights, see how he does this year, can sign him to an extension, but he doesn’t cost a roster spot?

    Not bad.

    No! No! No!

    The narrative has been established, Chia is a destructive force that bleeds talent and assets. Now that his job is on the line expect that formula to be doubled-down on.

    This signing, and all the permutations of it, can only mean doom for the Oilers short-term and long-term.

    Clearly this is another failed attempt to address the RHD situation and a sign that Klefbom, Puljujarvi and the 10th are on the move for a failed high end prospect/aging veteran/underachieving LHD to run the powerplay and corrode McDavid’s attachment to Edmonton.

    Also, this staggers the development curve of players in Bakersfield and demonstrates poor asset management moving forward.

    Further, 30 other GMs would have signed him for less $ and for a longer/shorter (whatever is deemed most optimal) term.

    Nicholson should see this as the last straw and fire Chia.

  15. Andy Dufresne says:

    SwedishPoster: Well he’s obviously started to listen to the right people…

    Agreed. I was on the Oilers site the other day was surprised to see

    Director of Player Personel: Allan Mitchell
    Chief Scout North America: Darcy McLeod
    Chief Scout Northern Europe: Swedish Poster

    The true Red Wine Club. (no pun intended)

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    He’s always done well with the little moves. He gets crushed on the big ones

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    Doug McLachlan: No! No! No!

    The narrative has been established, Chia is a destructive force that bleeds talent and assets.Now that his job is on the line expect that formula to be doubled-down on.

    This signing, and all the permutations of it, can only mean doom for the Oilers short-term and long-term.

    Clearly this is another failed attempt to address the RHD situation and a sign that Klefbom, Puljujarvi and the 10th are on the move for a failed high end prospect/aging veteran/underachieving LHD to run the powerplay and corrode McDavid’s attachment to Edmonton.

    Also, this staggers the development curve of players in Bakersfield and demonstrates poor asset management moving forward.

    Further, 30 other GMs would have signed him for less $ and for a longer/shorter (whatever is deemed most optimal) term.

    Nicholson should see this as the last straw and fire Chia.

    Very Creative. But it borders on plagerism.

  18. jake70 says:

    “Not a lot to show for 10 years worth of second rounds”

    It’s funny because I thought it was the lack of fully affiliated and stable farm teams (Springfiled, Wilkes-Barre-Scranton) that was an obstacle, and not the players drafted, in producing NHL players. Butt a lot of those 10 years happened when the team was firmly and fully in OKC and still not a lot to show, maybe it is drafting. Of course well documented in these parts the Oiler draft picks seemed not to get a lot of ice time in those and even more recent years.

  19. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer:
    Andy Dufresne,

    He’s always done well with the little moves.He gets crushed on the big ones

    “Crushed”…..as in “Grapes”…….as in “Red Wine”…..

  20. flea says:

    Persson’s contract will slide now, will it not? Lagesson still shows 3 years remaining on his ELC. Since Persson isn’t playing in the Oilers org, i would think that the contract won’t be in force until he actually plays Oilers (or Condors/ECHL) hockey.

    Maybe the play is to bring him over later in the year. When are the Swedish leagues done?

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed. I was on the Oilers site the other day was surprised to see

    Director of Player Personel: Allan Mitchell
    Chief Scout North America: Darcy McLeod
    Chief Scout Northern Europe: Swedish Poster

    The true Red Wine Club. (no pun intended)

    But serioulsy I was surprised to see that the Oilers strucutre (NHL Club only) (Below Nicholson on the Hockey Opps side) has:

    8 Managers
    8 Coaches ( before the recent firings and not including Paul Coffee)
    15 Amature Scouts
    3 Pro Scouts

    So that explains our drafting and procurement…….not enough pros and to many amatures…

  22. SwedishPoster says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed. I was on the Oilers site the other day was surprised to see

    Director of Player Personel: Allan Mitchell
    Chief Scout North America: Darcy McLeod
    Chief Scout Northern Europe: Swedish Poster

    The true Red Wine Club. (no pun intended)

    Considering the drink of choice around these parts “The Whiskey Club” might be more like it. Drunker. More aggressive. Fewer Stanley cup rings.

  23. dustrock says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    That’s a bit rich Doug.

    The biggest knocks on Chia have always been misjuding big game talent and cap management.

    He’s made some adroit minor moves, no doubt.

    In fact, we’re at a place where we can only make minor moves

  24. Andy Dufresne says:

    Morning News…..Guns……Texas……Schools……..”Make America Grate Again”

    SAD.

    Greatful this morning, and every morning, to be a Canadian…living free in Canada.

    Now…Back to your normally scheduled programming.

  25. Pink Socks says:

    flea,

    Yeti,

    His contract will not slide. The team pays his signing bonus and then at the end of the season he is RFA with the Oilers holding his rights. Basically, if he plays well again he can be signed and he will come over next year, and if he shits the bed he just doesn’t get signed. Well played by Chia & team on this one.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    SwedishPoster: Considering the drink of choice around these parts “The Whiskey Club” might be more like it. Drunker. More aggressive. Fewer Stanley cup rings.

    LOL. And “Helan Gar” is our Fight Song. Bottoms Up!

  27. Truth says:

    JamesL:
    Edmonton Oilers
    ‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers

    The #Oilers have signed defenceman Joel Persson to a one-year contract & will assign him to the Vaxjo Lakers of the Swedish Hockey League for the 2018-19 season.

    My take is that it is one of those ‘NHL or I’m playing at home’ deals popular with Russians. Oilers simply said fine, but you’re starting at home until we can justify you playing in the NHL over players we’ve invested development time into. I’d say it’s extremely low risk

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Very thoughtful of you for all us posters living south of the border

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Andy Dufresne,

    He’s always done well with the little moves.He gets crushed on the big ones

    Yup.

    Most of his detractors (like myself) have given him praise when its deserved.

    Amateur procurement has been much better under Chiarelli and I agree that his small moves have usually been good.

    Its moves and contracts with the best players where he shits the bed. (although the Klefbom contract is very good and Peter signed that one)

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster mentioned a few days ago that he thinks the best plan for Persson is to spend one more year in Sweden before coming over so I’m on board with this decision.

    Nice to see management slow play a prospect, even an older prospect.

    I wonder if he comes over for camp prior to heading back across the Atlantic?

  31. SwedishPoster says:

    Truth: My take is that it is one of those ‘NHL or I’m playing at home’ deals popular with Russians.Oilers simply said fine, but you’re starting at home until we can justify you playing in the NHL over players we’ve invested development time into.I’d say it’s extremely low risk

    You think a kid who worked as a teacher’s assistant while playing third tier hockey a little over a year ago would have the moxy to demand an NHL spot right away? I seriously doubt it.

  32. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – The 2nd round historically doesn’t look great, but what is the reference? How do other teams do?

    – Certainly trading the pick 4 times, when you sucked for 10 years doesn’t make sense

    – What % of 2nd rounders play 200 games in NHL?

    – NHL is so random. Vegas is a expansion team, Winnipeg had a bad coach and GM last year, and Tampa missed the playoffs, and there were whispers about Cooper losing his touch.

    – There are so many paths for the Oil to be one of these teams next year, and so many potholes…

  33. leadfarmer says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Morning News…..Guns……Texas……Schools……..”Make America Grate Again”

    SAD.

    Greatful this morning, and every morning, to be a Canadian…living free in Canada.

    Now…Back to your normally scheduled programming.

    Who would have thought a guy who got offended at the use of an archaic term would make such an eloquent post less than 24h later

  34. Truth says:

    SwedishPoster: You think a kid who worked as a teacher’s assistant while playing third tier hockey a little over a year ago would have the moxy to demand an NHL spot right away? I seriously doubt it.

    You clearly have more information than I do!

    However, I’d assume he’s been contacted by multiple NHL teams, so I assume he as some leverage in discussions. There’s all kinds of people out there. Maybe he would risk being walked away from by an NHL team because he enjoys his home country over Bakersfield? I can’t envision any scenario where the Oilers would prefer he stays in Sweden playing 30 less games and entirely impossible to be called up and sent home on short notice.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    leadfarmer: Who would have thought a guy who got offended at the use of an archaic term would make such an eloquent post less than 24h later

    You gotta stop farming that lead…..its going to your brain….making you …..well you know….”Insert archaic term here”

    My wife works in a school. Im glad we live in Canada. If that offends you then so be it.

    Some people hear Yanni some people hear Laurel.

  36. jtblack says:

    I doubt the RISTO deal goes down; BUT can someone give us his Fancies (CF%, GF%, WOWY, REL) so we can make a clearer determination on who he is

    THX

  37. SwedishPoster says:

    Truth: You clearly have more information than I do!

    However, I’d assume he’s been contacted by multiple NHL teams, so I assume he as some leverage in discussions.There’s all kinds of people out there.Maybe he would risk being walked away from by an NHL team because he enjoys his home country over Bakersfield? I can’t envision any scenario where the Oilers would prefer he stays in Sweden playing 30 less games and entirely impossible to be called up and sent home on short notice.

    I think it makes perfect sense. He’s a 24 year old with one year of pro hockey, one summer of pro level training, who’s never been part of a high end junior program. He has some catching up to do physically, the SHL is also a great league when it comes to developing developing D.
    And 30 less games? Persson played 77 competitive games this season. That’s more than most Oilers and everyone in Bako did.

  38. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – The 2nd round historically doesn’t look great, but what is the reference?How do other teams do?

    – Certainly trading the pick 4 times, when you sucked for 10 years doesn’t make sense

    – What % of 2nd rounders play 200 games in NHL?

    – NHL is so random.Vegas is a expansion team, Winnipeg had a bad coach and GM last year, and Tampa missed the playoffs, and there were whispers about Cooper losing his touch.

    – There are so many paths for the Oil to be one of these teams next year, and so many potholes…

    Id seriously consider Persson over a late 2nd rounder especially in weak draft years.

    The NHL is a business and the business model is one of “Parity” (Garry prefers Competitiveness)
    the business model “purposfully” adds to the randomness of the situation.

    Personally theres a part of me thats almost glad we are not in the playoffs this year. Can you imagine after 10 years of ‘exciting last place hockey” to finally build a contender AND THEN lose out in the Conference Finals to an expansion team!!! Id lose my sh*t…….

    And yes….. the Oilers have a fighters chance to be a playoff team next year, and in this age of Parity not much seperates the top from the bottom in the playoffs……..GOOD GOALTENDING!

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    I find it laughable that Chiarelli should be keen to curry favour to secure ass covering as if he’s some middle management bureaucrat.

    He’s a C suite level exec in an extremely high profile gig, where he’s perceived (whether accurate or not) as the man responsible for the roster. This Harvard man is smart enough to know that ass covering means nothing in this scenario. Katz and Bobby Nicks will scapegoat him in a heartbeat if they have to, regardless of whether they were party to the decisions or not.

    When you get to Chia’s perch on the ladder, ass covering is moot. You either have the power to execute your vision or you don’t. And if you don’t, quite frankly, you’re screwed.

    The verbal coming in was that Chia has the power, but the OBC had to say that for optics. 10+ years of incompetence had left the fanbase angry and this was their chance to flip the script. But oddly enough, as it rolled out, all the jokers stayed and in fact, they went out and hired more Boys on the Short Bus.

    Does anyone honestly think Gretzky comes in if he doesn’t have a say on hockey decisions? Actions speak louder than words. The Red Wine Summits are most definitely a thing.

  40. Andy Dufresne says:

    jtblack:
    I doubt the RISTO deal goes down; BUT can someone give us his Fancies (CF%, GF%, WOWY, REL) so we can make a clearer determination on who he is

    THX

    I hope someone will please. I know from other sources his zone entries and exits are much worse than Klefboms.

    He is very good 5×4 (much better than Klef) but not very good 5×5.

    The two factors that seem to obscure the view on this player are

    1) his usage……he plays BIG minutes and against tough comp
    and
    2) He plays on a poor team

    So hopefully any analysis inlcudes QoC and alot of Rel and WOWy stats and somehow take into account REALLY shitty Goalies.

  41. John Chambers says:

    jtblack:
    I doubt the RISTO deal goes down; BUT can someone give us his Fancies (CF%, GF%, WOWY, REL) so we can make a clearer determination on who he is

    THX

    I honestly think the fancies like CF% / Corsi REL, etc don’t offer anything in evaluating this player, mainly because of lousy team he plays on.

    Ristolainen plays the most minutes on Buffalo’s blueline. He manages to score a lot of points, but his team leaks an astonishing amount of goals. He’s an imperfect defenseman defensively and is likely being asked for too much based on his abilities.

    Ristolainen would be an ideal fit as a 2RD on a good team, but is already a top-pairing pedigree. Him and Dahlin will likely become one of the best 1-2 D pairs in the league. Considering the Sabres weren’t open to trading him for Taylor Hall, whatever Rishaug has dreamt up is irrelevant.

  42. John Chambers says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Chiarelli most certainly managed the McDavid contract negotiations.

    Having McDavid through his 20’s is probably the single biggest feat an Oiler GM has accomplished. Funny how little that gets talked about in relation to trivialities like the Russell signing.

  43. Andy Dufresne says:

    SwedishPoster: I think it makes perfect sense. He’s a 24 year old with one year of pro hockey, one summer of pro level training, who’s never been part of a high end junior program. He has some catching up to do physically, the SHL is also a great league when it comes to developing developing D.
    And 30 less games? Persson played 77 competitive games this season. That’s more than most Oilers and everyone in Bako did.

    You make perfect sense. Thank you. Sweden is outstanding in terms of player development especially defenseman.

    Now speaking of 24yr old……..whiskey…….this is “one summer”…..and I have some “catching up to do”…….it may involve some “pro level training”……..(right elbow ligaments specifically) trying to avoid “Tommy John(ny Walker) surgery.”

  44. Andy Dufresne says:

    John Chambers:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Chiarelli most certainly managed the McDavid contract negotiations.

    Having McDavid through his 20’s is probably the single biggest feat an Oiler GM has accomplished. Funny how little that gets talked about in relation to trivialities like the Russell signing.

    Exactly. Thank You!

    The McDavid and Draisaitl signings were the single biggest hockey story of 2017. Very little credit given for THE BEST value contract of the 21st Century.

    And for avoiding an offer sheet on Draisaitl.

  45. Yeti says:

    Pink Socks,

    Thanks, Pink Socks!

  46. anjinsan says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    There was no offer sheet on Draisaitl.

    In light of Scheifele at 6.125 x 8 — Draisaitl at 8.5 x 8 is an overpay of 2.5 x 8.

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I find it laughable that Chiarelli should be keen to curry favour to secure ass covering as if he’s some middle management bureaucrat.

    He’s a C suite level exec in an extremely high profile gig, where he’s perceived (whether accurate or not) as the man responsible for the roster. This Harvard man is smart enough to know that ass covering means nothing in this scenario. Katz and Bobby Nicks will scapegoat him in a heartbeat if they have to, regardless of whether they were party to the decisions or not.

    When you get to Chia’s perch on the ladder, ass covering is moot. You either have the power to execute your vision or you don’t. And if you don’t, quite frankly, you’re screwed.

    The verbal coming in was that Chia has the power, but the OBC had to say that for optics. 10+ years of incompetence had left the fanbase angry and this was their chance to flip the script. But oddly enough, as it rolled out, all the jokers stayed and in fact, they went out and hired more Boys on the Short Bus.

    Does anyone honestly think Gretzky comes in if he doesn’t have a say on hockey decisions? Actions speak louder than words. The Red Wine Summits are most definitely a thing.

    High level executives don’t engage in ass covering?

    Christ, they perfect the art of it.

  48. Yeti says:

    SwedishPoster: You think a kid who worked as a teacher’s assistant while playing third tier hockey a little over a year ago would have the moxy to demand an NHL spot right away? I seriously doubt it.

    If so, I’d guess at least 10 of his reported 180 lbs are in his balls alone.

  49. npanciroli says:

    anjinsan,

    I think Scheifele didn’t break out until after that contract. To me the comparable for Draisaitl was always Tarasenko. Draisaitl less goal scoring but probably similar contract okay since signed later.

    Overpayment by 1 mil/year IMO.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    This Harvard man

    He was an undergrad on a hockey scholarship at Harvard.

    His law degree came from University of Ottawa which is a good, but not top tier Law School in Canada.

    Whereas Harvard Law School is considered the best in the world, Ottawa ranks around 120th (same rank as UofA lately) n the world.

    Best Canadian Law school is UoT which gets ranked in the top 20, then McGill and UBC which make the top 30 in world.

    “Harvard man” is a bit rich in this context.

    Addendum: Harvard’s reputation as a world class education institution comes mostly from their graduate schools like Medicine, Law and their MBA program, not their undergrad.

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: High level executives don’t engage in ass covering?

    Christ, they perfect the art of it.

    You can cover your ass when the world at large doesn’t see your work. GM of the Oilers is far too high profile for patronage to outweigh performance imo.

    If the team doesn’t make the playoffs next year, it won’t matter if Chiarelli has Captain America’s shield bolted to his ass.

  52. leadfarmer says:

    anjinsan:
    Andy Dufresne,

    There was no offer sheet on Draisaitl.

    In light of Scheifele at 6.125 x 8 —Draisaitl at 8.5 x 8 is an overpay of 2.5 x 8.

    So you think Drai should have gotten less than Nuge and Eberle got when they signed their contracts?
    Prorated for cap space a 6 mil contract was 7.2 mil when Drai signed his. So we overpaid him by a little over one mil on the back of a strong playoff run

  53. McSorley33 says:

    Not a lot to show for 10 years worth of second rounds. The 2010 draft boasted three picks from this round, Martin Marincin (177) and Tyler Pitlick (138) both hanging in. Anton Lander (215) is the only player in the group with over 200 NHL games.
    ***************************************************************************************************
    Sad.

    When Bob Nicholson came on board – he specifically mentioned the Oilers having not much
    to show for draft picks outside the first round.

  54. Andy Dufresne says:

    anjinsan:
    Andy Dufresne,

    There was no offer sheet on Draisaitl.

    In light of Scheifele at 6.125 x 8 —Draisaitl at 8.5 x 8 is an overpay of 2.5 x 8.

    Media reports had Montreal locked and loaded on an offer sheet for Draisiatl.

    The comparison for Scheifele is the guy drafted in the same year 7 picks earlier. You should be whining about the overpay for RNH in comparison to Scheifele.

  55. leadfarmer says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    No your just walking it back now. You know exactly how insert your own archaic term phrase you just said. There was no pity, sorrow, hurt, or grief in anything you said. Like every strong man of real change of history you said I’m glad I don’t have to deal with that shit

  56. McSorley33 says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Nicholson should see this as the last straw and fire Chia.
    **************************************************************************
    Sounds like Bob was seriously considering your offer a few weeks ago Doug.

  57. Richard S.S. says:

    When did Keith Gretzky “take over” the Draft for the Oilers, not before 2017? The 2017 Draft was a sucessful one, but the ultimate sucess comes from who makes the Team while still on an ELC. That Draft showed a much different type and caliber of selections in comparision to prior Drafts.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: You can cover your ass when the world at large doesn’t see your work. GM of the Oilers is far too high profile for patronage to outweigh performance imo.

    If the team doesn’t make the playoffs next year, it won’t matter if Chiarelli has Captain America’s shield bolted to his ass.

    That is true.

    To that end I think he would have been punted already if he didn’t have “consensus” with those in OEG who matter on his previous moves.

    Agreed that his ass has a target on it for 18/19.

    If EDM does nothing but add 1 scoring winger and have Dmen health hold I have them making the playoffs next year.

  59. Bling says:

    They can’t trade the pick.

    1) Keith Gretzky has a good track record and the amateur procurement is really coming around. I’m very encouraged by all of the draft picks made last season.

    2) They’re going to need players on ELCs contributing to a cup contender while McDavid/Drai/Nuge/Lucic gobble up cap room.

    3) Your best shot at finding a legit top pairing D is developing one, and the best place to find those guys are in the first two rounds.

    4) A lot of the guys who are available — Barrie, Ristolainen, Faulk — have a LOT of warts. This is why they are available. It’s not just cap hit; there are legitimate questions about whether they can handle 1st/2nd pairing comp.

    5) The 4-10 of this draft is very close. The Oilers will end up with an excellent prospect.

    6) A good prospect, even a good D prospect, can come along in a hurry.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Media reports had Montreal locked and loaded on an offer sheet for Draisiatl

    Link?

    I follow this stuff closely and have never seen a team mentioned.

  61. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Media reports had Montreal locked and loaded on an offer sheet for Draisiatl

    Link?

    I follow this stuff closely and have never seen a team mentioned.

    Ill look for it. May not get to it today. It has been posted here in the recent past ……last six months or so. Ill see what I can find.

  62. Wilde says:

    Andy Dufresne: Media reports had Montreal locked and loaded on an offer sheet for Draisiatl.

    I’d find this unlikely with the amount of business that’s occurred between Chiarelli and Bergevin: Davidson for Desharnais, the Dubois for Subban deal that fell trhough, Montoya, Kassian, Petry…

    NHL offer sheets are extremely rare as it is, and between those who have a previosu working relationship on that level, it would be a first in NHL history I believe(but that’s subjective).

    SwedishPoster: I think it makes perfect sense. He’s a 24 year old with one year of pro hockey, one summer of pro level training, who’s never been part of a high end junior program. He has some catching up to do physically, the SHL is also a great league when it comes to developing developing D.
    And 30 less games? Persson played 77 competitive games this season. That’s more than most Oilers and everyone in Bako did.

    Agree with this, said so yesterday.

    Like the idea(tinkering at RHD), the execution and the target. Great move.

    Basically if his season was indeed a flash in the pan, you don’t waste 40-some man games that could be used developing another prospect in Bakersfield finding out.

    Andy Dufresne: You gotta stop farming that lead…..its going to your brain….making you …..well you know….”Insert archaic term here”

    My wife works in a school. Im glad we live in Canada. If that offends you then so be it.

    Some people hear Yanni some people hear Laurel.

    Don’t want to gang up on you, but you getting hammered on this is very justified. Tasteless comment coming from someone who tone-polices the discourse of much less serious subjects than mass murders.

    Season highlights from Joel Persson:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=25&v=x8OEZeb8uvs

    Guy tries tickling the rafters like he’s PK Subban.

  63. Alpine says:

    Tampa finished a point out of the playoffs last season. Before that they were in the SCF in 2015 and the ECF in 2016. They lost Stamkos for a large part of last season. There is minimal comparison between that franchise and the current Oilers. Maybe the pre-contender Lightning where they picked 10th in the 2012 draft (and 3rd in 2013, Yikes!).

    Winnipeg as a model makes slightly more sense. They had 78 points in 15-16 and 87 points last season. Oilers had 78 in 2017-18. Maybe they’re a year behind.

    The Oilers don’t have as much young talent that can get way better in an instant like the Jets did. Most young players on the Oilers are generally playing to their potential. Only Yamamoto and Puljujarvi can really break out anytime soon to raise the Oilers skill level.

    The best comparison for the current Oilers is as always, the Islanders. They were bottom feeders for years before making the playoffs in 2013. They became bottom feeders again in 2014. And then finished with 100 or more points in 14/15 and 15/16. That’s your model. Go wild with it. Talbot can be Halak quality at least, but how do you get Leddy/Boychuk?

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That is true.

    To that end I think he would have been punted already if he didn’t have “consensus” with those in OEG who matter on his previous moves.

    Agreed that his ass has a target on it for 18/19.

    If EDM does nothing but add 1 scoring winger and have Dmen health hold I have them making the playoffs next year.

    I agree and would add that Talbot has to be closer to the player he was in 2016/17 than the one he was last season for them to make the dance.

    I’d be much more bullish on this team’s chances if they’d fired MacLellan. Chiarelli has left himself an out to fire the HC if the club has a poor start. Unfortunately this organization doesn’t have a Sullivan waiting in the wings to make that a viable Plan B. In the meantime, they’ll miss out on coaches like Peters, Vigneault, Hitchcock, etc.

  65. Oilman99 says:

    Bag of Pucks: You can cover your ass when the world at large doesn’t see your work. GM of the Oilers is far too high profile for patronage to outweigh performance imo.

    If the team doesn’t make the playoffs next year, it won’t matter if Chiarelli has Captain America’s shield bolted to his ass.

    Pretty hard to see this ship getting turned around in one year, based on how much damage this guy has inflicted on the organization,so he will be gone later rather than sooner with shield and all.

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    Oilman99: Pretty hard to see this ship getting turned around in one year, based on how much damage this guy has inflicted on the organization,so he will be gone later rather than sooner with shield and all.

    Yeah, Tambellini was much better. lol

  67. bendelson says:

    Bag of Pucks: Does anyone honestly think Gretzky comes in if he doesn’t have a say on hockey decisions? Actions speak louder than words. The Red Wine Summits are most definitely a thing.

    Yes, they are very real, though one could debate if they would qualify as spectacular…

    My information suggests the OBC (coming out of the Red Wine Summits) wanted/demanded change this past Jan/Feb. and were somewhat shockingly rebuffed… or at the very least, put on hold.

    By whom? I can only assume it was Burger Bob and Chia.

  68. Oilman99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That is true.

    To that end I think he would have been punted already if he didn’t have “consensus” with those in OEG who matter on his previous moves.

    Agreed that his ass has a target on it for 18/19.

    If EDM does nothing but add 1 scoring winger and have Dmen health hold I have them making the playoffs next year.

    It is going to take more than one winger to get it done. Leon needs two to have a viable second line.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    bendelson: Yes, they are very real, though one could debate if they would qualify as spectacular…

    My information suggests the OBC (coming out of the Red Wine Summits) wanted/demanded change this past Jan/Feb. and were somewhat shockingly rebuffed… or at the very least, put on hold.

    By whom?I can only assume it was Burger Bob and Chia.

    It’s a soap opera alright. We know Nicholson, Gretzky and Lowe are very tight from the Olympic team days. Chiarelli initially had that endorsement as well, but is he really seen as one of the ‘cool kids’ internally? Doubtful.

    Thank God my Philadelphia Eagles are the very epitome of competent management atm. Don’t think I could stand this dysfunction all year round.

  70. Oilman99 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Media reports had Montreal locked and loaded on an offer sheet for Draisiatl.

    The comparison for Scheifele is the guy drafted in the same year 7 picks earlier.You should be whining about the overpay for RNH in comparison to Scheifele.

    We’ll see how that looks after a full year with McDavid. I think RNH will spend all summer working on his shot to be able to handle the boat load of McD passes coming his way. He finally has somebody to play with that thinks on the same level.

  71. Cassandra says:

    Andy Dufresne: Exactly. Thank You!

    The McDavid and Draisaitl signings were the single biggest hockey story of 2017.Very little credit given for THE BEST value contract of the 21st Century.

    And for avoiding an offer sheet on Draisaitl.

    It is a strange world where Chiarelli gets credit for signing players to unprecedented RFA contracts.

    Why should he get credit for signing McDavid to a longterm contract? The Oilers had him no matter what. It isn’t like he signed him to a low number. He gave an RFA the biggest contract in history.

    Likewise in a summer in which Pastrnak signed for 6.7, Draisatl signed for 8.5. Is it obvious that Draisatl is the better player? Not at all. I don’t think he is better at all, and he certainly isn’t 25% better.

    Chiarelli loses points for both of these contracts. They demonstrate a fundamental ignorance of the bargaining advantage teams hold with respect RFA contracts. He gets credit for the RFA discount and there is no real discount in these contracts. McDavid’s is fine but that number isn’t particularly low.

  72. Oilman99 says:

    leadfarmer: So you think Drai should have gotten less than Nuge and Eberle got when they signed their contracts?
    Prorated for cap space a 6 mil contract was 7.2 mil when Drai signed his.So we overpaid him by a little over one mil on the back of a strong playoff run

    The guy needs to drive his own line better, rather than relying on playing with McD in order to warrant the size of contract he’s getting. One season is not enough to warrant the overpay he got.

  73. Cassandra says:

    It will be interesting to see what the Leafs give Mathews, Marner and Nylander. Marner and Nylander are coming in under 7 million I predict. especially Nylander.

    Mathews might get 10 if his agent argues hard, but he isn’t getting anywhere near McDavid’s number.

  74. Andy Dufresne says:

    Oilman99: We’ll see how that looks after a full year with McDavid. I think RNH will spend all summer working on his shot to be able to handle the boat load of McD passes coming his way. He finally has somebody to play with that thinks on the same level.

    Im conflicted as to the logic that this situation presents. Not in terms of what I want to happen but in terms of what might actually happen.

    On the one hand, Chiarelli and TMac clearly have a philosophy shared by many GMs that you simply cant have too many centers.

    On the other hand, theres the logic that says RNH has more trade value because hes a center. And that finding wingers to play with McDavid should cost less than $6m AVV.

    I hope they keep Nuge…..but I think the things that make him valuable and the leverage the Oilers have with strength down the middle……make him vulnerable to being traded….at close to peak value.

    I hope he gets a full year on McDavids wing.

  75. Andy Dufresne says:

    Oilman99: The guy needs to drive his own line better, rather than relying on playing with McD in order to warrant the size of contract he’s getting. One season is not enough to warrant the overpay he got.

    I agree with you (not on the contract) but on the part about having to drive his own line.

    But it does beg the question.

    Does RHN need to drive his own line?

  76. stush18 says:

    Cassandra: It is a strange world where Chiarelli gets credit for signing players to unprecedented RFA contracts.

    Why should he get credit for signing McDavid to a longterm contract? The Oilers had him no matter what.It isn’t like he signed him to a low number.He gave an RFA the biggest contract in history.

    Likewise in a summer in which Pastrnak signed for 6.7, Draisatl signed for 8.5.Is it obvious that Draisatl is the better player?Not at all.I don’t think he is better at all, and he certainly isn’t 25% better.

    Chiarelli loses points for both of these contracts.They demonstrate a fundamental ignorance of the bargaining advantage teams hold with respect RFA contracts.He gets credit for the RFA discount and there is no real discount in these contracts.McDavid’s is fine but that number isn’t particularly low.

    Holy shit.

    Can you imagine the collective hockey world watching as Cassandra tried to nickel and dime the worlds best hockey player because he thinks he has leverage over him?

    Hahahahah.

    Hahahah.

    Ha.

    Seriously. Mcdavid is a value contract if he sign for league maximum. Anything under is a bonus. Stop posturing as if anyone would have gotten a better deal, you especially.

  77. stush18 says:

    Andy Dufresne: I agree with you (not on the contract) but on the part about having to drive his own line.

    But it does beg the question.

    Does RHN need to drive his own line?

    I think at his salary, he’s in the range of “elite secondary scorer”. As long as he puts up points playing with one of Mcdavid or Draisaitl, I don’t think it’ll matter if he drives his own line.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Chiarelli most certainly managed the McDavid contract negotiations.

    Having McDavid through his 20’s is probably the single biggest feat an Oiler GM has accomplished. Funny how little that gets talked about in relation to trivialities like the Russell signing.

    Signing a player whose supporters (correctly) call a 4/5 Dman to $4MM/yr x 4 with a NMC that in turn has made it nearly impossible to add a 2RD is not a trivial.

    Its that contract along with Lucic’s that have handcuffed him the most.

    No sir, not trivial at all, the opposite of trivial.

    Also,

    It was widely reported that Peter agreed to $14.5 x 8 and McDavid gave back $2MM to give the team more flexibility.

    Getting McDabid signed for 8 years, regardless of cost, is a feather in his hat.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Dobson is available – they best run to the podium and make that pick – we’ll see the player at development camp, rookie camp, main camp and then back to the Q – maybe even twice. Dividends will be paid in the future with Stanleys.

    Who goes off the board and for whom for Noah to drop?

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra,

    McDavid didn’t have to sign for 8 years.

    My money was on him signing for 5 as Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos had.

    8 years is a positive thing for Peter.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    If Dobson is available – they best run to the podium and make that pick – we’ll see the player at development camp, rookie camp, main camp and then back to the Q – maybe even twice.Dividends will be paid in the future with Stanleys.

    Who goes off the board and for whom for Noah to drop?

    Dahlin
    Svechnikov
    Zadina
    Tkachuk
    Hughes
    Wahlstrom
    Boqvist
    Bouchard
    Kotkaniemi

    Not necessarily in that order.

    Only one I’m weary of is Bouchard, I hope he isn’t the pick.

  82. Biggus Dickus says:

    Why would they put him on loan now though? So they can call him up IF we make the playoffs? I’m amazed at how this organization always makes things way convoluted and unpredictable than they should be.

  83. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Glad Persson will spend another year in the SHL. I believe Petterson may be returning as well. Get some more development time and adjustment to the pros, if Vaxjo doesn’t repeat the championship maybe he catches some time in Bako. Doesn’t block Bear/Mantha

  84. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Signing a player whose supporters (correctly) call a 4/5 Dman to $4MM/yr x 4 with a NMC that in turn has made it nearly impossible to add a 2RD is not a trivial.

    Its that contract along with Lucia’s that have handcuffed him the most.

    No sir, not trivial at all, the opposite of trivial.

    Also,

    It was widely reported that Peter agreed to $14.5 x 8 and McDavid gave back $2MM to give the team more flexibility.

    Getting McDabid signed for 8 years, regardless of cost, is a feather in his hat.

    This is ridiculous and irrational. Would you be happy with that 14.5 number? By what criterion is that a good number?

    McDavis was going to be an Oiler for the next 8 years no matter what? It is impossible for him to not be an Oiler for the next 8 years. Given that, there is no credit to signing him for 8 years. That was a foregone conclusion. The credit goes for getting him for less than what an offer sheet would have entailed.

    What is the offer sheet on McDavid?

    What would McDavid have gotten as an UFA?

    How much is the RFA discount?

    Those are the relevant questions.

    In a world in which every other good team is playing hardball you can’t give McDavid a blank cheque and sign him for “any” number even if star players are systematically underpaid. If other teams are underpaying their stars by more than you, then you are losing in comparison to them.

    [Edit] I am wrong about the 8 years. Not particularly relevant to my larger point. See below.

  85. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cassandra,

    McDavid didn’t have to sign for 8 years.

    My money was on him signing for 5 as Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos had.

    8 years is a positive thing for Peter.

    And yet the Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos contracts are all better contracts for their teams than McDavid’s contract is for the Oilers.

  86. LadiesloveSmid says:

    RHD in Bako in 2019-2020 could feature Berglund, Marino, Desharnais?, Persson?

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: I agree and would add that Talbot has to be closer to the player he was in 2016/17 than the one he was last season for them to make the dance.

    I’d be much more bullish on this team’s chances if they’d fired MacLellan. Chiarelli has left himself an out to fire the HC if the club has a poor start. Unfortunately this organization doesn’t have a Sullivan waiting in the wings to make that a viable Plan B. In the meantime, they’ll miss out on coaches like Peters, Vigneault, Hitchcock, etc.

    They could very well have a Yawney and a Viveiros waiting in the wings…..

  88. jake70 says:

    Did Chiarelli have a chance to do Draisaitl first last summer? My guess is Drai’s camp said,” no thanks, go get 97 done and then we’ll chat about an extension”. McDavid gets done, and Drai’s camp uses him as the comparator, not an external player. I feel a lot better about McDavid’s contract (value-contract wise) after the season he just put up, special player to repeat those numbers on a worse team the following year.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: It is going to take more than one winger to get it done. Leon needs two to have a viable second line.

    I’m confident that Jesse Puljijarvi will prove to be a solid top 6 right winger this season – he and Drai will drive the 2nd line (as long as Lucic is not on the LW).

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: The guy needs to drive his own line better, rather than relying on playing with McD in order to warrant the size of contract he’s getting. One season is not enough to warrant the overpay he got.

    Drai proved in the 2017/18 season to drive offence as a center away from McDavid.

    The offensive numbers he put up (P/60) away from McDavid were 1st line numbers. He did this with middling wingers for almost the entire year (guys like Aberg, Cammy, Lucic, etc.).

    The issue was that, when away from McDavid, his line gave up more than it got. Its got to play a better 200 foot game. Again, this might be largely a function of his tweener wingers.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Signing a player whose supporters (correctly) call a 4/5 Dman to $4MM/yr x 4 with a NMC that in turn has made it nearly impossible to add a 2RD is not a trivial.

    Not to mention that the contract was signed (8 days before free agency) about a month after the general manager expressly spoke about the defensive group not being good enough and an upgrade being required (after playing against ANA and watching NSH in the playoffs).

  92. Biggus Dickus says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cassandra,

    McDavid didn’t have to sign for 8 years.

    My money was on him signing for 5 as Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos had.

    8 years is a positive thing for Peter.

    I’ll make a decision after the Matthews and Laine contracts. I’m not sure that giving the highest cap hit ever by nearly 20% can be widely regarded as a huge win. Sure we got 8 years for the best talent in 20+ years, but we paid a steep price. Not sure we can call it more than a draw until we see some of the other deals.

  93. Richard S.S. says:

    There is possibility of a stud D coming West, possibly to Las Vegas. Talks may pick up again this Offseason. Is the Oilers D comparable or even good enough? It’s not even close.

    There is a possibility of a stud Center signing in California. Whispers say there’s interest. We’ll know for sure when we know. Is the Oilers O comparable or even good enough? I think no.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Dahlin
    Svechnikov
    Zadina
    Tkachuk
    Hughes
    Wahlstrom
    Boqvist
    Bouchard
    Kotkaniemi

    Not necessarily in that order.

    Only one I’m weary of is Bouchard, I hope he isn’t the pick.

    Aggghh, so Kotkaniemi’s run at the U-18s (and the world juniors earlier), the tournaments of small sample sizes, boosts him in to the top 10 and gifts us Dobson.

    I like it.

  95. PennersPancakes says:

    Cassandra,

    There is no guarantee that he had to be an oilers for the next 8 years. I feel most likely yes, players of that calibre rarely leave. My understanding is a player is eligible to be a UFA after 7 years of NHL play or reaching the age of 27. I think this is correct, meaning if he really wanted out he could have signed a 4 year contract.

    Not assuming McDavid would sign an offer sheet but the option for a team like Vegas would be there to give him a blank cheque as well. Its not like Chia Pet pulled off the steal of the century but I think all Oil fans should be happy we are guaranteed 8 more years of McDavid.

  96. PennersPancakes says:

    Biggus Dickus,

    Matthews and Laine aren’t comparables to McDavid. Drai definitely. The only relatable player of his draft pedigree/generational status is Crosby. Crosby signed a 5 year contract woth 17.3% of the cap at the time of the signing.

    McDavid signed an 8 year contract worth 16.67% of the cap when signed. This is a lower cap hit (percentage wise) which goes for longer. Yes I would be estatic if McDavid signed 9 mill for example, instead but that would be selling himself short greatly.

  97. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    +1. Drai shouldn’t be criticized for his performance but commended considering his line mates. Other than Puju I think middling is overly generous to the rest unfortunately.

    You’re right about giving up more than he got but also looking at the tire fire of the defense and goalie situation (I’m sure forwards played into it as well flying the zone) there’s probably a decent amount of goals that he couldn’t prevent. He put up 70 points in 78 games with only 11 PPP compared to last years 27. With a half functional PP decent bet hes PPG with AHL players and has beens as wingers.

  98. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar: Drai proved in the 2017/18 season to drive offence as a center away from McDavid.

    The offensive numbers he put up (P/60) away from McDavid were 1st line numbers. He did this with middling wingers for almost the entire year (guys like Aberg, Cammy, Lucic, etc.).

    The issue was that, when away from McDavid, his line gave up more than it got.Its got to play a better 200 foot game.Again, this might be largely a function of his tweener wingers.

    All of this. The fact that Drai still put up 70 pts in a season with 16(!) less powerplay points while playing with 4th line wingers is quite the feat. McDavid and Draisaitl contracts are not a problem. Both are Oilers for the maximum term, that is an excellent accomplishment.

  99. Pink Socks says:

    Also, this twitter handle deserves some sort of an award.

    Peter Chiarelli

    @FakeOilersGM
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    Just when you think The Plan has been fully executed BOOM! Joel Persson baby

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Biggus Dickus: I’ll make a decision after the Matthews and Laine contracts. I’m not sure that giving the highest cap hit ever by nearly 20% can be widely regarded as a huge win. Sure we got 8 years for the best talent in 20+ years, but we paid a steep price. Not sure we can call it more than a draw until we see some of the other deals.

    I’m in agreement with this and it doesn’t even matter what the other players sign for.

    I know I am (we are) in the minority here (and I’ve been bashed in the past for the opinion) but I don’t consider “anything less than the max” a “win” and I don’t consider signing a contract almost $2M more than the previous highest cap hit being a “value contract”.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m just fine with the contract and its not on the list of problems this organization needs to deal with but I don’t consider it a value contract vis-a-vis the cap structure of the league when he signed it.

  101. Pink Socks says:

    Just saw that Milan Lucic’s wife had a baby last night.

    I remember what my wife was like (emotionally) through the latter half of the pregnancy and I’m not sure I scored more than once in the final 46 games either.

  102. Richard S.S. says:

    With Connor McDavid you knew what you had right away. Getting him signed (05 July 2017) for eight years and less than the max $15.0 Million per season was a major coup. It guarentees him and his family financial freedom forever.

    With Leon Draisaitl it wasn’t until the last year of his ELC that he showed who he could be. Getting him signed (18 August 2017) for eight years at (IMO) fair market value was a necessity. It guarentees him and his family financial freedom forever.

    Whether or not people agree on prices and/or term does not matter, it’s history. $21.0 Million in Cap.

  103. sliderule says:

    Bling:
    They can’t trade the pick.

    1) Keith Gretzky has a good track record and the amateur procurement is really coming around. I’m very encouraged by all of the draft picks made last season.

    2) They’re going to need players on ELCs contributing to a cup contender while McDavid/Drai/Nuge/Lucic gobble up cap room.

    3) Your best shot at finding a legit top pairing D is developing one, and the best place to find those guys are in the first two rounds.

    4) A lot of the guys who are available — Barrie, Ristolainen, Faulk — have a LOT of warts. This is why they are available. It’s not just cap hit; there are legitimate questions about whether they can handle 1st/2nd pairing comp.

    5) The 4-10 of this draft is very close. The Oilers will end up with an excellent prospect.

    6) A good prospect, even a good D prospect, can come along in a hurry.

    Would you post that on Chias Twitter account every day until the draft

    This is so important that it needs persistent reinforcement😄

  104. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Value might be the wrong word for it you’re right but to each their own. I view it as very fair. Also I think looking at absolute dollars and not % of cap will skew the picture. When the cap started in 05-06 it was 39 million and has rose to 75 million in 17-18. This is overly simplified but averages out to a 3 million increase per year.

    Makes it hard to compare when contracts are signed years apart. Makes the long term contracts look even better in the end too.

  105. Richard S.S. says:

    The day you/your wife have a child your life as it was is over, it’s now a never-ending adventure. But the moment you are told a child is coming, the worrying starts now. I can’t see any reason for Milan Lucic not to have a better year.

  106. PennersPancakes says:

    Richard S.S.,

    I hope you’re right and I’m sure every pregnancy has its work/scares but this is their third child so its not their first rodeo.

  107. Doug McLachlan says:

    Andy Dufresne: Exactly. Thank You!

    The McDavid and Draisaitl signings were the single biggest hockey story of 2017.Very little credit given for THE BEST value contract of the 21st Century.

    And for avoiding an offer sheet on Draisaitl.

    On that point, he also signed the Klefbom deal September 19th of 2015 which I think we are all correctly viewing as a value contract. This was not a player that he brought in but he certainly had a hand in locking him up. I am disinclined to think that he’s a player Chia is eager to send out the door.

    The Nurse contract will be the next big test of Chia’s cap-navigation skills or lack thereof. I will be interested to see where that shakes out.

  108. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilman99: It is going to take more than one winger to get it done. Leon needs two to have a viable second line.

    We’re hoping one is already on the roster.

    Puljujarvi / Yamamoto

  109. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I’ve been thinking that Nurse would be the victim of the leftorium numbers game and NTC/NMC situation.

    How about Kassian + Nurse (RFA) for Skinner (1 yr left) + van Riemsdyk (RHD RFA) – I would be looking for more from Carolina, I was thinking a 3rd pick, but they have none. 2nd rounder or a trade of 3rd for a 2nd.

    This would probably satisfy the toughness itch Carolina’s apparently looking to scratch, Nurse will cost too much on the blueline and Kassian is too expensive where he slots. TVR would come in around $1.5 -2MM/yr. Not sure if he could slot on 2nd pair, seems more like a 3rd pair dman….Thoughts?

  110. SwedishPoster says:

    A nice bonus with Joel Persson signing with the Oilers is that his former third/fourth tier clubs are getting something around 120000 USD as per the deal between the NHL and the Swedish Hockey association. Pretty neat since that’s big money for such tiny clubs.

  111. Cassandra says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m in agreement with this and it doesn’t even matter what the other players sign for.

    I know I am (we are) in the minority here (and I’ve been bashed in the past for the opinion) but I don’t consider “anything less than the max” a “win” and I don’t consider signing a contract almost $2M more than the previous highest cap hit being a “value contract”.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m just fine with the contract and its not on the list of problems this organization needs to deal with but I don’t consider it a value contract vis-a-vis the cap structure of the league when he signed it.

    Another way of saying what I was saying.

    The only way to win in this league is by paying players less than they are worth.

    From a talent valuation perspective almost every single trade with clear winners and losers is driven by cap space problems on the one hand and opportunities on the other.

    If you are at the cap, this means that:

    a) you are not in a position to take advantage of other teams problems, and
    b) you are going to lose RFA players or be forced to make salary dump trades to avoid losing RFA players.

    This is where the Oilers are now. They cannot add any players of significance outside of the draft. And they are in danger of losing good players.

    They absolutely need players like Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto, and Jones and Bear to become stars. But if they become stars they are going to have trouble keeping them.

  112. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’ll agree that the Russell signing was terrible if they’re unable to move his contract next summer.

    However the way it’s structured, KR gets paid $1.5M on July 1, 2019 and will then only be owed $2.5M in each of his last two playing seasons. For a non-cap team, $2.5M is a good deal on a player who can play 1500 mins a season.

    Oilers pay the money and forego the cap space this summer, but it’s likely this contract doesn’t saddle the payroll beyond this season.

  113. John Chambers says:

    Cassandra,

    Except that when those players become stars, the Sekera and Russell contracts will be off the books, and the salary cap will be $88M+.

    There’s a bit of short-term pain, but $21M for Draisaitl and McDavid will be a bargain within two summers.

    As for Lucic … woooofffff.

  114. Munny says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Biggus Dickus,

    Matthews and Laine aren’t comparables to McDavid. Drai definitely. The only relatable player of his draft pedigree/generational status is Crosby. Crosby signed a 5 year contract woth 17.3% of the cap at the time of the signing.

    McDavid signed an 8 year contract worth 16.67% of the cap when signed. This is a lower cap hit (percentage wise) which goes for longer. Yes I would be estatic if McDavid signed 9 mill for example, instead but that would be selling himself short greatly.

    Excellent post. You should bring the syrup more often!

  115. Biggus Dickus says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m in agreement with this and it doesn’t even matter what the other players sign for.

    I know I am (we are) in the minority here (and I’ve been bashed in the past for the opinion) but I don’t consider “anything less than the max” a “win” and I don’t consider signing a contract almost $2M more than the previous highest cap hit being a “value contract”.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m just fine with the contract and its not on the list of problems this organization needs to deal with but I don’t consider it a value contract vis-a-vis the cap structure of the league when he signed it.

    I agree. I think it is a situation where people are uncomfortable putting a price on something. Like a child’s education, a human life, etc. The rate for McDavid was almost certainly too high based on precedent.

  116. Biggus Dickus says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Biggus Dickus,

    Matthews and Laine aren’t comparables to McDavid. Drai definitely. The only relatable player of his draft pedigree/generational status is Crosby. Crosby signed a 5 year contract woth 17.3% of the cap at the time of the signing.

    McDavid signed an 8 year contract worth 16.67% of the cap when signed. This is a lower cap hit (percentage wise) which goes for longer. Yes I would be estatic if McDavid signed 9 mill for example, instead but that would be selling himself short greatly.

    Heard it before, doesn’t stand. That is cherry picking a time when salary cap was lower and cap was higher. We know that star cap hits haven’t risen uniformly with the increase in salary cap. Plus Crosby wasn’t the highest paid player, and wasn’t way out of whack with other stars. Iginla 7m. Lindstrom 7.45. Thornton 7.2. And Ovie 9.5. Spezza 8. Most of those hits were on older contracts as well, and the cap was rising substantially back then, so teams were abusing long term deals more than they can today.

    I’m not saying I don’t sign that McDavid contract, but it isn’t a “win” in the same way that the Hall contract was. Not an indictment of the player. I’m saying that best case scenario, and in all likelihood, it was a draw, which for Chiarelli is a win.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra: Another way of saying what I was saying.

    Yes, I don’t disagree with your position.

    I will say that the normal contract factors such as RFA vs. UFA contract, # or years towards UFA status, UFA years given up, etc. don’t/didn’t/couldn’t/shouldn’t apply to the McDavid contract as they would a normal RFA coming off their ELC, McDavid was/is a special case, however, I don’t agree that “anything less than the max” is a value contract.

    I also don’t believe that management agreed to $14.5M and McDavid asked to take less.

    I believe there was a lot of “information” spread for PR reasons including the rumored $13.25M deal (i.e. making $12.5M look like a discount).

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra:

    The only way to win in this league is by paying players less than they are worth.

    Yes, its imperative that this team gets a couple additional value contracts, real value contracts, to off-set the big contacts (McDavid/Drai.Nuge) and the bloated contracts (Lucic/Russell) and why I’m of the opinion that the path forward is to commit no material cap with term to top 6 wingers.

    The way the league is now, young and talented kids can come in to the top 6 at a very young age, on their ELCs, and produce offensively – we need this in our top 6 and, with McDavid and Drai as centers, we should be able to fill those positions internally with value contacts – in time.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Cassandra,

    Except that when those players become stars, the Sekera and Russell contracts will be off the books, and the salary cap will be $88M+.

    …. and, if they continue to draft well (and not trade things like the 10th overall pick) there will be new internal options to replace those that do price themselves out of the cap structure.

  120. Biggus Dickus says:

    John Chambers:
    Cassandra,

    Except that when those players become stars, the Sekera and Russell contracts will be off the books, and the salary cap will be $88M+.

    There’s a bit of short-term pain, but $21M for Draisaitl and McDavid will be a bargain within two summers.

    As for Lucic … woooofffff.

    That’s pretty small picture. It 3 years (When Moto, etc need to be signed), we will have had to sign RNH, a starting goalie, Larsson, etc. Unless we think we can bet a 1st pairing D at Larsson value again, we need to accept that the usual suspects have burnt off all the value contracts we spent over a decade tanking for. My point being that timing is important for all contracts, and the bad contracts are burning years off of our good assets.

  121. Biggus Dickus says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, its imperative that this team gets a couple additional value contracts, real value contracts, to off-set the big contacts (McDavid/Drai.Nuge) and the bloated contracts (Lucic/Russell) and why I’m of the opinion that the path forward is to commit no material cap with term to top 6 wingers.

    The way the league is now, young and talented kids can come in to the top 6 at a very young age, on their ELCs, and produce offensively – we need this in our top 6 and, with McDavid and Drai as centers, we should be able to fill those positions internally with value contacts – in time.

    Here’s my list of top 6 players at a young age. Hirchier, Patrick, Bratt, Keller, Dubois, Laine, Debrincat, Tkachuk, Matthews, Aho, Beauvillier, Barzal, Konecny, Boesser, McDavid, Connor, Rantanen, Eichel, Debrusk, Meier,Kempe, Larkin, Fiala, Pastrnak, Tuch, Nylanderm Point, Dvorak, Shmaltz, Ehlers, Lebanc, Kase, Draisaitl, Reinhart, Wood, Barkov, McKinnon, Heinen. Probably not JP, Jost, Fischer, Zacha, Malgin, Vatanen, Bennett, Perlini, Vrana, Ritchie.

    Those are the players under 23 who were substantial last year. By my count there was roughly 38, most of which were top 5/10 picks. And we need 3 of those, assuming that Nuge plays 1LW? It’s a pipe dream to say that is how we will solve our cap problem. Whether it is now, or after they disappear some bad contracts, we need to sign a veteran winger or two.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: If so, I’d guess at least 10 of his reported 180 lbs are in his balls alone.

    /thread

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: And yet the Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos contracts are all better contracts for their teams than McDavid’s contract is for the Oilers.

    I’ll agree that Stamkos’ and Malkin *might* be, but its close.

    Crosby signed a 12 year deal with a giant tail so it’s a different animal.

    McDavid at 12.5 is an underpay.

    You know this

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: It’s a soap opera alright. We know Nicholson, Gretzky and Lowe are very tight from the Olympic team days. Chiarelli initially had that endorsement as well, but is he really seen as one of the ‘cool kids’ internally? Doubtful.

    Thank God my Philadelphia Eagles are the very epitome of competent management atm. Don’t think I could stand this dysfunction all year round.

    Well the Eagles are well run because they have a stats nerd running them and an army of stats nerds working for him. 🙂

  125. JimmyV1965 says:

    If scheifle signed his contract today he gets $10 mill. He gets more than Eichel and he should be paid more than Tavares.

  126. jtblack says:

    Negotiating in a blog is simple. McDavid should have taken $7 mil per year and been happy. But wait, there are smart ppl in the McDavid camp that figured he should be the highest paid player in the game; and have a little buffer for inflation, cap growth; etc.

    So there was NO WAY you were getting Connor for less. And you “tough as nails” negotiators would be left with no Connor.

    Now the Leon contract …….. well dammit

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra,

    This is ridiculous and irrational. Would you be happy with that 14.5 number? By what criterion is that a good number?

    The fact that the NHL overlays their middle of the road players is not a good argument that the elite shouldn’t be paid.

    My criterion is GF% contribution and % of team goals that he’s involved in.

    He’s half the team and maybe should be paid 25MM, but the CBA doesn’t allow that.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I agree and would add that Talbot has to be closer to the player he was in 2016/17 than the one he was last season for them to make the dance.

    I’d be much more bullish on this team’s chances if they’d fired MacLellan. Chiarelli has left himself an out to fire the HC if the club has a poor start. Unfortunately this organization doesn’t have a Sullivan waiting in the wings to make that a viable Plan B. In the meantime, they’ll miss out on coaches like Peters, Vigneault, Hitchcock, etc.

    I think Dmen health and a better PK scheme will go a loooooong way to Talbot being better.

    Only giving him 55 games will help too.

  129. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Only giving him 55 games will help too.

    I almost think Chia should have taken TMac to Russia to see the Finn play net… and then ask our Coach, “Look, if I sign this guy, WILL YOU PLAY HIM?”

  130. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra,

    McDavis was going to be an Oiler for the next 8 years no matter what? It is impossible for him to not be an Oiler for the next 8 years.

    No, there are only 5 RFA years after an ELC.

    The fact that you don’t know that is something.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m confident that Jesse Puljijarvi will prove to be a solid top 6 right winger this season – he and Drai will drive the 2nd line (as long as Lucic is not on the LW).

    That actually might work.

    Ubersmall sample (48min) but:

    53.6% CF
    65.9% SCF
    76.9% HDSF

    Shitty goal luck (33% 2-4) but it bodes wellness.

  132. Pink Socks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That actually might work.

    Ubersmall sample (48min) but:

    53.6% CF
    65.9% SCF
    76.9% HDSF

    Shitty goal luck (33% 2-4) but it bodes wellness.

    Are these numbers with the sloth on the line?

  133. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think Dmen health and a better PK scheme will go a loooooong way to Talbot being better.

    Only giving him 55 games will help too.

    Good points all around.

  134. Biggus Dickus says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cassandra,

    This is ridiculous and irrational. Would you be happy with that 14.5 number? By what criterion is that a good number?

    The fact that the NHL overlays their middle of the road players is not a good argument that the elite shouldn’t be paid.

    My criterion is GF% contribution and % of team goals that he’s involved in.

    He’s half the team and maybe should be paid 25MM, but the CBA doesn’t allow that.

    116 players with a higher GF% than McDavid in over 200 min played. Stamkos has 59.65 GF%. Don’t make me nitpick McDavid though. In a cap free world, you could pay him whatever you want, but in a cap world you are competing with other teams. Lebron makes 31mil , you could argue McDavid should make the same, but that isn’t the proper way to look at it. We are paying 20% more for our top player than any other team in the league. Is the difference between Stamkos and McDavid worth 4 million? I don’t think that is necessarily true. It depends how you spend that money, but I think that the fact that it is a question proves that this isn’t a value deal, but simply the cost of doing business.

  135. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well the Eagles are well run because they have a stats nerd running them and an army of stats nerds working for him.

    It’s also not being afraid to be different than the norm. Lurie is a smart guy and he looks for the same in his execs.

    The Eagles have traditionally spent far more on their backup QBs than the rest of the league because they fully understand the value of depth at the position. Amazing how something that obvious can still give you a competitive advantage in the NFL.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pink Socks: Are these numbers with the sloth on the line?

    Actually their fancies fall off a cliff without Lucic (in a tiny sample size) – not sure who the replacement LW was in those cases.

  137. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cassandra,

    This is ridiculous and irrational. Would you be happy with that 14.5 number? By what criterion is that a good number?

    The fact that the NHL overlays their middle of the road players is not a good argument that the elite shouldn’t be paid.

    My criterion is GF% contribution and % of team goals that he’s involved in.

    He’s half the team and maybe should be paid 25MM, but the CBA doesn’t allow that.

    You have to factor in PR stuff, Media demands, notoriety from Media for Franchise ….. McDavid has prob added $100 Mil to value of Franchise as is. and when we win the Cup $250 Million.

    I agree. Worth $25 Million all day, every day

  138. Scungilli Slushy says:

    McDavid with anyone works, Nuge makes it the IQ line.

    If JP finds some mojo and Lucic isn’t bad with Drai; what a nightmare to defend.

    Speed smarts followed by brawn smarts.

    If they can get Strome the right help forward scoring should be adequate at least.

  139. Lowetide says:

    For @TheAthleticEDM Keegan Lowe’s likely role is as mentor in the AHL should he sign with the Oilers

    https://theathletic.com/358229/2018/05/18/lowetide-keegan-lowes-likely-future-with-oilers-is-in-an-ahl-mentor-role/

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    McDavid with anyone works, Nuge makes it the IQ line.

    If JP finds some mojo and Lucic isn’t bad with Drai; what a nightmare to defend.

    Speed smarts followed by brawn smarts.

    If they can get Strome the right help forward scoring should be adequate at least.

    Parings that work (or seem to, in small sample sizes):

    Nuge/McDavid
    Drai/Jesse
    Khaira/Strome

  141. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Parings that work (or seem to, in small sample sizes):

    Nuge/McDavid
    Drai/Jesse
    Khaira/Strome

    Agree with all three pairings. Lucic is a problem though for at least two of those pairings.

  142. Richard S.S. says:

    PennersPancakes,

    Does anyone get used to the second, the third, the fourth, any pregnancy? I think no. It’s a new adventure and a new set of worries.

  143. Munny says:

    Hokey and over-the-top, that’s still a heckuva pre-game show.

    Nearly screwed up my barbequing.

  144. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    It will be interesting to see what the Leafs give Mathews, Marner and Nylander.Marner and Nylander are coming in under 7 million I predict. especially Nylander.

    Mathews might get 10 if his agent argues hard, but he isn’t getting anywhere near McDavid’s number.

    Mathews will get min $10 mill like Eichel. But he’s been better so I bet $11 mill.

  145. Side says:

    Lowetide:
    For @TheAthleticEDM Keegan Lowe’s likely role is as mentor in the AHL should he sign with the Oilers

    https://theathletic.com/358229/2018/05/18/lowetide-keegan-lowes-likely-future-with-oilers-is-in-an-ahl-mentor-role/

    *3 years from now*

    “Keegan Lowe hired as assistant coach for the Bakersfield Condors”

    “We really liked his leadership on the ice. He was a phenomenal mentor and he understands the game very well.” says vice-chairman of the Oilers Entertainment Group, Kevin Lowe.

  146. Mr DeBakey says:

    Lowetide: Agree with all three pairings. Lucic is a problem though for at least two of those pairings.

    This is correct.
    This is why all my 18/19 roster permutations feature Lucic as Derek Ryan’s LW, or in the pressbox.

  147. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: They could very well have a Yawney and a Viveiros waiting in the wings…..

    That is absolutely my dream scenario.

  148. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Aggghh, so Kotkaniemi’s run at the U-18s (and the world juniors earlier), the tournaments of small sample sizes, boosts him in to the top 10 and gifts us Dobson.

    I like it.

    I think I’d rather have Kotkaniemi.

  149. Munny says:

    Laine finally gets one through, and the Jets tie it up on yet another weak penalty call.

    Been a fierce game thus far.

  150. Munny says:

    And the Kaniggits answer back before you can say Patrick Laine one-timer.

  151. jtblack says:

    I am just watching all Vegas place which is pure coaching ;and it’s pressure pressure pressure.

    That is the way the Oilers have to play that is the new way the game is played.

  152. Munny says:

    jtblack:
    I am just watching all Vegas place which is pure coaching ;and it’s pressure pressure pressure.

    That is the way the Oilers have to play that is the new way the game is played.

    Watching Vegas play throughout these playoffs has ruined me for the other series.

    There are commenters here though that weren’t happy the Oil used man D in their zone this season like Vegas does.

  153. ArmchairGM says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    I’ve been thinking that Nurse would be the victim of the leftorium numbers game and NTC/NMC situation.

    How about Kassian + Nurse (RFA) for Skinner (1 yr left) + van Riemsdyk (RHD RFA) – I would be looking for more from Carolina, I was thinking a 3rd pick, but they have none.2nd rounder or a trade of 3rd for a 2nd.

    This would probably satisfy the toughness itch Carolina’s apparently looking to scratch, Nurse will cost too much on the blueline and Kassian is too expensive where he slots.TVRwould come in around $1.5 -2MM/yr.Not sure if he could slot on 2nd pair, seems more like a 3rd pair dman….Thoughts?

    That’s a pretty weak return for a guy who was a legit top-pairing defenseman at 22.

  154. jtblack says:

    Munny: Watching Vegas play throughout these playoffs has ruined me for the other series.

    There are commenters here though that weren’t happy the Oil used man D in their zone this season like Vegas does.

    What do you mean?

  155. Munny says:

    This game has been a joy to watch and deserves a beer for the third period. So I’m going to wander down to the pub.

    I’m sure I won’t be the only one imbibing…so please please everyone have a fun but safe long weekend!

  156. Munny says:

    jtblack,

    Well obviously this wasn’t a year where we played man D very well… a big chunk of that is on the injury situation.

    Accordingly there were calls to switch to a simpler system, ie zone cover.

    But you’re right. The future lies with the way Vegas plays the game.

  157. jtblack says:

    Munny: Watching Vegas play throughout these playoffs has ruined me for the other series.

    There are commenters here though that weren’t happy the Oil used man D in their zone this season like Vegas does.

    Let me put it this way I firmly believe that if Gerard Gallant was the coach of the Edmonton Oilers we could win the cup in the next 3 years cuz he knows how to utilize every person and understands time and space in mew era hockey. Remember he led Florida to their best season ever and then got fired for no reason

  158. Jethro Tull says:

    Munny:
    And the Kaniggits answer back before you can say Patrick Laine one-timer.

    Nee.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    jtblack,

    But you’re right. The future lies with the way Vegas plays the game.

    Its seems “the future”, “the model” changes every couple of years.

  160. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – That Vegas is an expansion team is a great story

    – But the team, like any team at the beginning of the season, you could “project” a scenario to do what they did. It just rarely happens in professional sport that so many “ifs” actually get answered

    – Its really that simple IMO: a bunch of players having career years, all at the right time

    – Now whether they had those career years because of luck, or genius coach,or GM who just had the right alchemy and saw things out-of-box or the players were virtually all at last chance texaco playing for their next contracts all at once, or they were all rejected and together that brought a dynamic team unity, or the goalie is better than peak-Hasek these playoffs, or any combination is up for debate

    – But you take any team, where 8-10 players + have career years, that team is going to do a lot of damage: especially the way the league is set up now

  161. deardylan says:

    Vegas Baby! I want Winnipeg to win although happy to see Vegas continuing the wild ride.

    Just read Scott Cullen reviewing Oilers Off Season Needs: Looks like we are in much better position than before. Just need 3 players and to score goals like Vegas does (when you score we will score a few minutes later)—constant constantly resilient!

    OILERS NEEDS (2018)
    Two top-nine forwards, power-play quarterback

    WHAT I SAID THE OILERS NEEDED LAST YEAR (2017)
    Two top-nine forwards, one top-four defenceman, backup goaltender

    https://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-plan-edmonton-oilers-1.1088642

  162. Munny says:

    Jethro Tull: Nee.

    I always thought it should start with a K
    😉

  163. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its seems “the future”, “the model” changes every couple of years.

    It can change within these very same playoffs, dependent on which team actually takes the Holy Grail.

    As far as the narrative goes. Actual teams may differ.

    Personally the “Knee” have me convinced on their style of play. They are like the ultimate Clare Drake team. Beauty hockey.

    _______

    Nope, I’m with JT… it’s Nee. The Golden Knights who say.

  164. Munny says:

    Because I’ve been drinking…

    Lucic w/ $2M retained to Beantown for Krug. Fishface would likely squeeze another half mill out of us.

    Klefbom for Myers… Jets are going to have some cap grief this summer AND Trouba is going to want some more PP time. Or a leftie for a different look. Myers is presently their second unit PPQB.

    With Nurse, Sekera, Myers and Larsson, we have enough to hide Krug defensively.

    Now just need a gun.

  165. Wilde says:

    Second Round—No. 40 overall—RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). A flat out OHL rookie (he played for St. Andrew’s College in Aurora, Ontario in ’16-17), I’m surprised he isn’t getting more love. He is 5.11, 168, intelligent offensive center. Central Scouting says nice things (“Smaller dynamic skilled player, first year in OHL and plays like a veteran. Very quick and powerful stride with skater – good quickness and acceleration – uses his speed as an asset on the forecheck or when reacting to a loose puck – smart player with good vision and passing skills – plays in important situations including the power play and penalty kill – good compete and battle in all areas of the ice”) and his numbers (60, 20-39-59) as a rookie stand out to me.

    A word on Hillis: His raw totals are extremely impressive for a first season in the OHL, but his 5v5 primary point rate is red-alert scary to be using the #41 on:

    He actually got an impressive amount of minutes for an undersized first year guy, perhaps from the reputation he garnered by tearing through everything at St. Andrews.

    With 24 5v5 primary points in 60 games, he is 30th among OHL draft eligibles, behind several 2019 draft eligibles.

    Although that’s not entirely fair to a very, very late birthday, so I’ll cut it off at prospect-stats’s age ‘17.5’ guys( Mr. Hillis sits at 17.2):

    He jumps to 18th.

    As an OHL rookie, I’ll also give him a (completely arbitrary) 10% boost, which will take him from 1.51/60 to 1.66/60 5v5 primary points per 60:

    He’s now 11th.

    Personally I don’t think that’s good enough.

    The top 5 by this metric in the OHL are Svechnikov, Noel, Dudas, Jenkins and Hayton, by the way.

    e: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

  166. Wilde says:

    Also more Joel Farabee propaganda!

    (from prospect-stats.com / / USHL 2016/17)

    Andre Svechnikov – age 16.474

    G/60 – 1.52

    A1/60 – 1.31

    P1/60 – 2.83

    ———————————–

    Joel Farabee – age 16.556

    G/60 – 1.82

    A1/60 – 0.99

    P1/60 – 2.81

    ————————————

    Brady Tkachuk – age 17.000

    G/60 – 0.97

    A1/60 – 1.36

    P1/60 – 2.33

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    deardylan:
    Vegas Baby! I want Winnipeg to win although happy to see Vegas continuing the wild ride.

    Just read Scott Cullen reviewing Oilers Off Season Needs: Looks like we are in much better position than before.Just need 3 players and to score goals like Vegas does (when you score we will score a few minutes later)—constant constantly resilient!

    OILERS NEEDS (2018)
    Two top-nine forwards, power-play quarterback

    WHAT I SAID THE OILERS NEEDED LAST YEAR (2017)
    Two top-nine forwards, one top-four defenceman, backup goaltender

    https://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-plan-edmonton-oilers-1.1088642

    I believe the needs are:

    1) one stop-gap top 6 forward to “push” Rattie for that 1RW spot (this may end up being Yamamoto)

    2) one top 4 right shot D that can transition the puck (this does not necessarily equate to a “PP QB” – I want a d-man that can play top 4 minutes and transition the puck.

    I believe one top 6 winger spot should be filled by Puljijarvi this season – he should be a mainstay on Leon’s wing and I think he’ll have a solid top 6 season.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – That Vegas is an expansion team is a great story

    – But the team, like any team at the beginning of the season, you could “project” a scenario to do what they did.It just rarely happens in professional sport that so many “ifs” actually get answered

    – Its really that simple IMO: a bunch of players having career years, all at the right time

    – Now whether they had those career years because of luck, or genius coach,or GM who just had the right alchemy and saw things out-of-box or the players were virtually all at last chance texaco playing for their next contracts all at once, or they were all rejected and together that brought a dynamic team unity, or the goalie is better than peak-Hasek these playoffs, or any combination is up for debate

    – But you take any team, where 8-10 players + have career years, that team is going to do a lot of damage: especially the way the league is set up now

    Don’t forget MAF was the best all situation SV% goalie during the regular season

    And now he’s…….the best all situation SV% goalie in the playoffs (among goalies who played more than 4 games)

    The killer is that he beat Quick who put up a .947 vs VGK because Fleury put up a .975

    This goddamn game should be called “mostly goalie”

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Biggus Dickus: 116 players with a higher GF% than McDavid in over 200 min played. Stamkos has 59.65 GF%. Don’t make me nitpick McDavid though. In a cap free world, you could pay him whatever you want, but in a cap world you are competing with other teams. Lebron makes 31mil , you could argue McDavid should make the same, but that isn’t the proper way to look at it. We are paying 20% more for our top player than any other team in the league. Is the difference between Stamkos and McDavid worth 4 million? I don’t think that is necessarily true. It depends how you spend that money, but I think that the fact that it is a question proves that this isn’t a value deal, but simply the cost of doing business.

    You have to use relative numbers to compare players accross teams

    EDM McDavid On Ice 57.7% GF
    EDM McDavid Off Ice 41.1% GF
    Relative GF% 16%

    Now check how many players sustain that over time.

    Its not many and they should be among the players who get all the mobneys

    Now, players on better teams won’t sustain that high of a Rel GF% because their team doesn’t stink while they are not on the ice, but its one metric (among many) that is useful at identifying the best players.

    No where do I suggest using one metric to measure players. Ever.

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Last bit on McDavid’s contract.

    When Crosby signed his RFA extension it was similar to McDavid in that he signed it a year before it kicked in.

    Crosby signed his 5 year RFA deal in July 2007, it kicked in September 2008.

    It was for $8.7MM/yr

    The cap for the 07/08 season was $50.3MM

    So Crosby’s extension was 17.3% of the cap.

    McDavid signed his extension July 2017.

    The cap for the 17/18 season was $75MM

    So McDavid’s extension is for 16.6% of the cap and it runs 3 years longer so we have 3 years of value that Crosby’s didn’t.

    I don’t like to use epitaphs on people, but I’ll recall the ones used on me:

    Anyone arguing against the McDavid contract is irrational and ridiculous.

  171. Lowetide says:

    McDavid’s contract is $12.5M, I believe the max would have been $15M. He was worth the max. Hockey is silly, asking its best players to take a discount while some scrub makes $2 million for 7 goals. That said, 97 signed a fabulous contract from the Oilers point of view. Arguments come out of jealousy, just as they did in the days of Gretzky. I’ve seen this movie, it’s a waste of time. Enjoy |McDavid, ladies and men, no other fanbase can fully embrace these moments.

  172. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Last bit on McDavid’s contract.

    When Crosby signed his RFA extension it was similar to McDavid in that he signed it a year before it kicked in.

    Crosby signed his 5 year RFA deal in July 2007, it kicked in September 2008.

    It was for $8.7MM/yr

    The cap for the 07/08 season was $50.3MM

    So Crosby’s extension was 17.3% of the cap.

    McDavid signed his extension July 2017.

    The cap for the 17/18 season was $75MM

    So McDavid’s extension is for 16.6% of the cap and it runs 3 years longer so we have 3 years of value that Crosby’s didn’t.

    I don’t like to use epitaphs on people, but I’ll recall the ones used on me:

    Anyone arguing against the McDavid contract is irrational and ridiculous.

    I thought we covered this last Summer though? Crosby’s contract may have been that for the cap when it was signed, but they knew the cap was rising significantly for when it’d kick in. The cap was rising quickly every year (not the case today, but we may have hope yet). Similar to some other contracts around the same time, aside from length (Malkin and Ovechkin etc., although Ovechkin went all-out in contract length). However, still no reason to bash McDavid’s contract.

    Edmonton has McDavid, he was worth max, $12.5 for 8 years will be beautiful, some other teams will likely regret signing their players to $10-12 million long-term deals but Edmonton won’t in this case in my opinion, I still have that spark of Stanley Cup and Team Canada greatness hope in my belly, and arguing about minute details that really don’t matter won’t get us anywhere.

    Let’s go Tampa Bay/Washington, even though I won’t watch you, and hopefully Edmonton has a great Summer and 2018-2019 season.

  173. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Don’t forget MAF was the best all situation SV% goalie during the regular season

    And now he’s…….the best all situation SV% goalie in the playoffs (among goalies who played more than 4 games)

    The killer is that he beat Quick who put up a .947 vs VGK because Fleury put up a .975

    This goddamn game should be called “mostly goalie”

    They were dominate even with their 4th and 5th string goalies, though. Edmonton was the only team to have beaten them at home for quite some time this season!

    A really ridiculously well-executed system to take on the NHL with. Sure, a good Underdog and Castaway story, but I still don’t want them to win. :p

  174. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well the Eagles are well run because they have a stats nerd running them and an army of stats nerds working for him.

    This did not work out the same way for my Cleveland Browns. It might in the future, however, from said stats nerds’ remaining gifts and those who remained in the Front Office. :p

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: They were dominate even with their 4th and 5th string goalies, though. Edmonton was the only team to have beaten them at home for quite some time this season!

    A really ridiculously well-executed system to take on the NHL with. Sure, a good Underdog and Castaway story, but I still don’t want them to win. :p

    Subban was 13-4 with a .910 so that holds up.
    Lagace was 6-7 with a .867
    Dansk was 3-0 with .946

    Fluery was 29-13 with a .927

    That’s all the goalies who played for VGK this year.

    Fluery has a .945 in the playoffs, that kinda matters when looking at wins in the playoffs

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: This did not work out the same way for my Cleveland Browns. It might in the future, however, from said stats nerds’ remaining gifts and those who remained in the Front Office. :p

    Maybe don’t hire baseball nerds to run a football next time?

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: They were dominate even with their 4th and 5th string goalies, though. Edmonton was the only team to have beaten them at home for quite some time this season!

    A really ridiculously well-executed system to take on the NHL with. Sure, a good Underdog and Castaway story, but I still don’t want them to win. :p

    This “well executed system” thing doesn’t hold a lot of water for the regular season.

    They play well, but its not like they killed it.

    VGK
    1st line GF% 44.8%
    2nd line GF% 65.9%
    Bottom 6 GF% 48.3%

    The bottom 6 GF% was 10th in the NHL among “bottom 6 GF% “so that’s good

    Their 2nd line was the best 2nd line in hockey, and its not close.

    Their 1st line was the second worst 1st line in hockey.

    Lots of good depth, killer 2nd line, and a good goalie.

    They play well too, but everyone is starting to get nutty with the narratives.

    Last team to win the Cup with one line over 50% GF during the year and a hot goalie in playoffs was LAK in 13/14

    It happens, but if VGK wins it shouldn’t be an earth shattering moment for the league other than “learn to value your players correctly and play more skill/less plugs as your bottom 6 has more skill than you think”

    And get a good goalie.

  178. Lowetide says:

    Professor Q: This did not work out the same way for my Cleveland Browns. It might in the future, however, from said stats nerds’ remaining gifts and those who remained in the Front Office. :p

    One thing I believe to be absolutely true: The nerd reading the numbers should be paid handsomely if he’s looking at the right information and sussing it out correctly. Big money.

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