Flaming June

We are less than two full weeks from June, the month we expect the Edmonton Oilers to “bring the crazy” and continue the tradition of trading away precious gold for specific pieces of silver. Names we have been discussing for some time are now being used as discussion points by national media and those in other NHL cities. These names (and the No. 10 overall) are being mentioned because they have two things: Value, and a lesser duplicate on the roster.

THE ATHLETIC!

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Photo by Rob Ferguson

2009 HARVEST MOON

By 2009 I had graduated from “Draft Summary” to “Shoot the Moon” on the Sunday night post of draft weekend, still no Harvest Moon in sight. Seven picks, went like this.

  • RD1, 10th overall: L Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, Timra IK (SEL). Top winger available in the draft fell into the Oilers laps at  No. 10. Immediately the best player in the system and represents a big part of this team’s future. Already playing pro hockey.
  • RD2, 40th overall: C Anton Lander, Timra IK (SEL). Two-way center is Magnum PS’s linemate and a quality prospect. Words like “character” and “work ethic” are woven into his scouting report and overall this is viewed as a quality pick. Already playing in pro hockey.
  • RD3, 71st overall: D Troy Hesketh, Minnetonka HS (Minn). Defender grew a couple of inches late and rode a gathering buzz into the 3rd round. From Minnetonka HS, he will eventually find his way to Wisconsin (NCAA) but has to be considered a long term project. Unlikely to see pro hockey until 2012 (or later).
  • RD3, 82nd overall: R Cameron Abney, Everett Silvertips (WHL). Knuckle-dragger. He can skate and is an exceptional fighter. If this was the 1970’s he’d have a career. Turned 18 in May, unlikely to see pro hockey until 2011.
  • RD 4, 99th overall. D Kyle Bigos, Vernon Vipers (BCHL). A big, bruising defender who is strong along the wall and in front of the net. Has an exceptional shot. He’ll attend Merrimack (NCAA) this fall and is 20 years old. Could turn pro in 2011 or 2012.
  • RD 4, 101st overall. R Toni Rajala, Ilves (Fin Jr). 19 points in 6 games at the U18 WJC’s. Fiesty player, scored well in Fin (Jr) and he sounds like a better Tony Salmelainen. Plays tough despite lack of size. Turns 20 in 2011, but could turn pro in the SM-LIIGA much sooner.
  • RD 5, 133rd overall. G Olivier Roy, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). Fine athlete, quick glove, extremely competitive. Despite draft position looks like a quality prospect. Should turn pro in 2011.

PERSONAL OPINION

Every once in awhile, I like to give you my personal feelings on the Oilers summer and what a good eight weeks might look like. My personal opinion: This isn’t the season to go crazy with trades, but it would be wise to make one big (and shorter term) move in free agency.

Keep your powder dry, draft your list, see if you can buy short-term free agents who can help you next season. Maybe find a useful piece for the long haul (perhaps Czarnik or MPS in the scenario below), graduate Puljujarvi to the skill lines and move Kailer Yamamoto up from Bakersfield when he’s forcing the issue (and that may not take long).

This is what I’d like to see, we can quibble over details (you may prefer Yamamato on the roster, or maybe Kassian traded so the club can afford James Neal or JVR) and specific procurement targets. I’d be fine with Patrick Maroon returning if the team had more fast trains. I like Czarnik a lot, pleased to see Scott Cullen include him in his offseason game plan. I moved Jesse Puljujarvi up, there are lots of other options but he’s the most promising and I think Rattie will likely need replacing before the big Finn on the skill lines.

Center gets no help, that locks Jujhar Khaira in so maybe you add a center but that’s something to discuss. I included Ethan Bear as No. 7 defenseman, mostly because I can’t settle on any player currently on the roster for the position. I think the cap totals are correct, but the royal wedding is mere hours away so maybe my brain isn’t working.

BRUINS PROSPECTS

The item I linked to above re: The Bruins is from Joe Haggerty of SportsBoston, who drills down on the idea of Krug to the Oilers.

  • Haggery on Bruins acquiring Oscar KlefbomKrug may factor into this discussion as a big-name, offensive D-man who would be deadly with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but you can be sure that Edmonton assistant GM Keith Gretzky would be trying to recoup some of the prospects that he drafted while with the B’s as well. If Edmonton was willing to move their No. 10 overall pick as well as Klefbom, that could really be an enticement for the Bruins to give up a few valuable assets to make a deal.

I’m not interested in rehashing the idea of trading Oscar Klefbom (mentioned it in an article for The Athletic February 23) but the ‘prospects from Boston’ mention by Mr. Haggerty is a wrinkle we can pursue. As a Bruins fan, these prospects are pretty familiar to me, not sure how many of the NHL-ready group Boston would be willing to deal.

  • L Jake DeBrusk was touted as a future scoring winger, don’t know many who said he would arrive at 21 (70, 16-27-43). He’s a determined player, won a lot of battles and then finished them with skill. Bruins aren’t trading him.
  • LC Danton Heinen has already posted a solid NHL debut (47 points in 85 NHL games). He’s the top NHL-ready talent I can see being available from Boston.
  • LC Ryan Donato is a talented offensive player, soft hands and a natural ability to be in the right spot. Opportunistic, they used to call it. I suspect Bruins consider him a keeper.
  • RD Brandon Carlo emerged quickly after he was drafted, based on speed and the ability to play defense. He’s a shutdown type, can pass the puck and would absolutely be a Chiarelli-type player. Missed the end of the season and playoffs with a fractured ankle.
  • RC Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson is a pretty damned good two-way center prospect. He scored 32 points in 52 AHL games as a 20-year old rookie pro this past season. Oilers would be interested in him.
  • LC Trent Frederic was a surprise first-round selection but the two-way center provides more offense than his draft day scouting report implied. He’s a big power center and might be NHL-ready sometime in ’18-19.
  • L Anders Bjork is a good skater, solid two-way skills and delivered more offense in college than expected. 12 points in 30 games during his NHL debut, lost time to injury.
  • LD Jakub Zboril is a great skater, two-way ability and his draft day scouting report suggested offense would be part of his resume (Red Line compared him to Francois Beauchemin).
  • R Zach Senyshen spiked in his draft season and had the Bruins skill set (big, skilled, fast, physical). Hasn’t delivered (66, 12-14-26 in his AHL debut) but the club still believes in him based on reports.

The idea of trading Klefbom and No. 10 while acquiring Torey Krug plus prospects is both Chiarelli-like (Oilers are giving up a brilliant contract for a lesser one, and No. 10 overall for a more NHL-ready player with a lower ceiling) and fascinating. I think the Oilers would be wise to keep both Klefbom and the pick. One thing history teaches us: Whatever the deal, Edmonton is unlikely to get 100 cents on the dollar. As I mentioned yesterday, based on previous June trades, Oscar and 10 for Krug and Danton Heinen represents expected value if not reasonable value.

I think that’s a fair estimate of what we may be looking at with the big trade of summer. The one thread running through my mind about the general manager: He has every right to remain patient on his draft picks. If you’re looking for three wingers to play with 97-29-93 in some order on the top two lines, the answers might be Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto. It should not be considered a waste of time if Edmonton misses the playoffs next spring but delivers two quality right wingers for the next decade.

In reality, Peter Chiarelli is going to acquire a substantial puck mover and that’s going to cost some assets. It would be best if he waited for the market to come to him. The past informs the future.

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240 Responses to "Flaming June"

« Older Comments
  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Can’t GF%rel be gamed by something silly like who has the worse 4th line, though?

    Yes.

    I’ll re-do it with Rel Teammate GF% if you want.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You can’t use Crosby’s current contract.

    It’s 12 years long with a tail.

    His actual salary in the first 3 years was 12MM starting in 13/14

    Cap in those 3 years:

    63.4
    69.0
    71.4

    So Crosby’s % of cap those year if he had to have all 12 on the cap would be:

    18.9%
    17.3%
    16.8%

    McDavid starts at 16.7 and will drop from there.

    Crosby was 27 when that contract started.McDavid is 21.

    The last 3 years of Crosby’s contract pays him $3MM/yr.

    I wonder if he’ll develop an allergy to his equipment?

    Of course I could use Crosby’s as I’m talking about right now, at this point in time.

    I’m talking about the 2018/19 season and the Oilers trying to compete and build a team to make the playoffs (and, eventually, win the Stanley Cup).

    For the 2018/19 season, McDavid is likely to have very similar value on the ice as Crosby – you were the first to say so. I would profess that McDavid will have a bit more value but they are in line.

    For this coming season, the two players will provide similar value, one will do so for a cap hit of $8.7M and the other will do so for a cap hit of $12.5M.

    Which player will provide more value for his contract in 2018/19 (injuries, etc. aside)?

    I have been consistently express that I don’t have a problem with the contract and its a fine contract and no issue for the Oilers – the reasoning is the term and that it will eventually turn in to a value contract but, at this point in time, as far as value for the cap hit vis-a-vis other players in the league (and their cap hits) its not a value contract.

    When Auston Matthews signs for $11M and Patrick Laine signs for $10.5M and Tavares signs for $11.5M and Doughty signs for $10.5M and Malkin signs for $13.5M and Taylor Hall signs for $10M and MacKinnon signs for $9.5M and Crosby signs for $13.5M, it become more of a value contract vis-a-vis the rest of the league.

    Right now I compare it to the current contracts in force in the NHL and I don’t consider it a value contract.

  3. Munny says:

    Refs have allowed a couple of murders to pass unwhistled here in the third..

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    For this coming season, the two players will provide similar value, one will do so for a cap hit of $8.7M and the other will do so for a cap hit of $12.5M.

    You must have missed the part where Crosby has a 12 year contract with a big tail.

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Am I missing something, or isn’t Hall in both of those years? He appears in all three lists you provide.

    I’m the one who missed that

  6. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I wonder if he using an “OMGBBQ” scoring chances and not just “run of the mill’

    I am working on one of those OMGBBQ scoring chances right this moment.

  7. Munny says:

    OV makes it interesting. 3-2 with 90 seconds to go.

  8. Munny says:

    I don’t get the strategy of moving OV to the point.

    “It’s a trap!”

  9. Munny says:

    Caps redeem themselves in the second half of the game but their lack of willingness to sacrifice that they started play with was shocking. Complete lack of commitment. Start like that back in DC and the series is over.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    For this coming season, the two players will provide similar value, one will do so for a cap hit of $8.7M and the other will do so for a cap hit of $12.5M.

    You must have missed the part where Crosby has a 12 year contract with a big tail.

    How many times do I have to post that I’m talking about the the contract being a value contract THIS SEASAON vis-a-vis the other players in the league and their cap hits?

    I’ve been very clear that i have no problem with the contract. I have been very clear that the contract is not a problem – he’s the best player in the league and is paid as the best player in the league. I have been very clear that I anticipate the contract being a value contract through a good part of its term.

    This season, this contract is not a value contract vis-a-vis the other players in the league and their cap hits.

    The length of Crosby’s contract has zero effect on the amount of value he provides for the $8.7M cap hit this year.

  11. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: How many times do I have to post that I’m talking about the the contract being a value contract THIS SEASAON vis-a-vis the other players in the league and their cap hits?

    I’ve been very clear that i have no problem with the contract.I have been very clear that the contract is not a problem – he’s the best player in the league and is paid as the best player in the league.I have been very clear that I anticipate the contract being a value contract through a good part of its term.

    This season, this contract is not a value contract vis-a-vis the other players in the league and their cap hits.

    The length of Crosby’s contract has zero effect on the amount of value he provides for the $8.7M cap hit this year.

    I think you’ve been pretty clear, haha.

    Two different questions are being addressed, the value of the contract as a whole, and the value of this years cap hit vs others in the league.

    You’re both right.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I think you’ve been pretty clear, haha.

    Two different questions are being addressed, the value of the contract as a whole, and the value of this years cap hit vs others in the league.

    You’re both right.

    I agree with you.

    We know that WG is intelligent so its not like he’s not understanding my point, he’s just refusing to admit it.

  13. deardylan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with you.

    We know that WG is intelligent so its not like he’s not understanding my point, he’s just refusing to admit it.

    Are there any good value contracts on the Swiss team?

    Any good value contracts on Las Vegas?

    Hope Conor is learning from the Swiss and will bring it back to the Oilers to raise his value to the Oilers getting into the playoffs and winning Stanley Cup.

    If Conor, Crosby, Lebron, Jordan, Gretzky can’t get their teams into playoffs I think they will agree they even if they score record amount of individual points it just ain’t a good value contract.

    McD makes it worth watching every game he plays in – no matter win or lose. Is he a good value contract if he gets Oilers back in the playoffs for the next few years and wins the Stanley Cup at least 1x?!

    Hell Yes!

  14. Rondo says:

    Even the Islanders make fun of Peter C in a mock draft.

    https://eyesonisles.com/2018/05/19/new-york-islanders-2018-nhl-mock-draft-post-lottery-2-0/4/

    “10. Joel Farabee | Edmonton Oilers

    Poor kid. Sure he might someday have the chance to play with Conor McDavid, but he’ll also be part of the Edmonton Oilers system. Which means he’s immediately available to be traded for a second to third pair defenseman by Peter Chiarelli.”

  15. Spooky Lynx says:

    Rondo,

    Glass houses. Pots and kettles. Etc.

  16. Munny says:

    Rondo,

    With all the success they are having, and the happiness of their superstar, I’m not surprised they are trash-talking other teams.

  17. who says:

    Based on my first viewing of Dobson I don’t think he’ll be available at 10OV. But if he is the Oilers need to draft him.
    Big guy who can really skate and looks very good handling and shooting the puck. He also showed some ability to read the play and jump into the rush. Didn’t really see any negatives.

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    Original Pouzar, the issue is that you’re using the word ‘value’ when what you mean is bargain.

    Value means intrinsic or perceived worth and given that every GM in the league would happily take McDavid at this cap hit if they could, the market value of the contract is indisputable.

    What you’re actually arguing is that the contract is not a ‘bargain’ cos the biggest cap hit for the best player is not a discount. But that is the way contracts for the elites always work. RFA years are purchased at a premium to reduce the outlay on UFA seasons. Inflation being what it is, this contract will be a massive bargain in 3 years assuming good health (knock on wood).

    The key win for the organization and true value of the contract is the term. The Oilers did enough to convince this generational player that the entirety of his prime should be spent with the Oilers. The entertainment ‘value’ of that for us as fans? Best bargain in the league imo.

  19. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: How many times do I have to post that I’m talking about the the contract being a value contract THIS SEASAON vis-a-vis the other players in the league and their cap hits?

    I’ve been very clear that i have no problem with the contract.I have been very clear that the contract is not a problem – he’s the best player in the league and is paid as the best player in the league.I have been very clear that I anticipate the contract being a value contract through a good part of its term.

    This season, this contract is not a value contract vis-a-vis the other players in the league and their cap hits.

    The length of Crosby’s contract has zero effect on the amount of value he provides for the $8.7M cap hit this year.

    Seems like kind of a tiring exercise, though. Saying McDavid is “currently” not a “value” contract only when we’re comparing them to other player’s in the league in this year or maybe the next, when we both know when we look at the contract at a whole McDavid’s $12.5 million x 8 will provide incredible value, especially in the middle and end of his contract.

    Why go through these hoops?

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    who:
    Based on my first viewing of Dobson I don’t think he’ll be available at 10OV.But if he is the Oilers need to draft him.
    Big guy who can really skate and looks very good handling and shooting the puck. He also showed some ability to read the play and jump into the rush. Didn’t really see any negatives.

    He looked great yesterday, didn’t he?

    I think, given recency bias, with both Hughes and Dobson still playing, and playing well, it may be Boquist that drops – I’m not sure how I feel about that – I acknowledge the potential but also the higher “bust potential” and the fact that he’s likely the farthest from the NHL of all the d-men in the tier.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Seems like kind of a tiring exercise, though. Saying McDavid is “currently” not a “value” contract only when we’re comparing them to other player’s in the league in this year or maybe the next, when we both know when we look at the contract at a whole McDavid’s $12.5 million x 8 will provide incredible value, especially in the middle and end of his contract.

    Why go through these hoops?

    Yes, I’ve acknowledged that he will be value in excess of his cap hit for the middle and end years of the contact – maybe even sooner.

    I’m simply providing my position that he doesn’t outperform his cap hit at this point in time, not with reference to the other cap hits in the league. I’m “going through these hoops” because other are disagreeing with the point so I’m discussing it.

    I have no issue with the contract, not at all.

    Its going to look great when the likes of the following all re-sign over the next few years: Matthews, Laine, Hall, Malkin, MacKinnon, etc.

  22. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I’ve acknowledged that he will be value in excess of his cap hit for the middle and end years of the contact – maybe even sooner.

    I’m simply providing my position that he doesn’t outperform his cap hit at this point in time, not with reference to the other cap hits in the league. I’m “going through these hoops” because others are disagreeing with the point so I’m discussing it.

    I have no issue with the contract, not at all.

    It is going to look great when the likes of the following all re-sign over the next few years: Matthews, Laine, Hall, Malkin, MacKinnon, etc.

    OP I see where you are coming from with your statement. We are paying for potential and for future earning by comparison to the other players. This won’t happen till some of the mention players sign there next contract. I agree. It is not a bargain in comparison to others for the next couple of years. The CAP is only going to go up and players earnings are only going to follow. Players and owners are heading into a strike and possibly an earning roll back like previous strikes.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    No disagreement here.

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    No disagreement here.

    I am surprised Eichel didn’t sign for more. I can’t see Matthews or Laine signing close to Connor, probably just a little more than Eichel. Hall might match Connor on his 3rd contract. I think the one potentially signing for more can possibly be Doughty. Ekman-Larsson may come close probably not over. JMHO

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with you.

    We know that WG is intelligent so its not like he’s not understanding my point, he’s just refusing to admit it.

    Honest truth is I haven’t read the posts closely enough to know that a distinction has been made.

    I’m guilty of something I bitch to other people about….not reading for content.

  26. Scungilli Slushy says:

    flyfish1168: I am surprised Eichel didn’t sign for more. I can’t see Matthews or Laine signing close to Connor, probably just a little more than Eichel. Hall might match Connor on his 3rd contract. I think the one potentially signing for more can possibly be Doughty. Ekman-Larsson may come close probably not over. JMHO

    I think Connor’s contract has maxed the league for a while. Who’s got the moxy to ask for more or the same as the clear best player in the league?

  27. Wilde says:

    Where’s the line in the sand for it to be a ‘bargain’ contract?

    If you can name a single player (like Crosby) who provides more value, does that suddenly mean that Conor’s isn’t?

    Doesn’t that then apply to every other one as well?

    The silliest part about that is that 97 is better than 87, by a lot.

  28. hunter1909 says:

    Is this morning’s theme “Luckily we traded Hall because he’s going to be hard to re-sign”?

    Go Vegas, go Capitals, go Jets : )

  29. hunter1909 says:

    ps: McDavid’s probably worth $20,000,000.00 cap wise. McDavid’s the heir apparent to Bobby Orr. That represents value which is so far off of the charts it’s unquantifiable.

  30. hunter1909 says:

    pps: You have to laugh at management – so cack handed we fans openly wonder whether or not they even draft a defenceman, or trade for a puck moving defenceman. And now they want to move Klefbom? Way to go, Kevin Lowe. Despite rumors to the contrary – you’re still firmly in power.

  31. hunter1909 says:

    I wonder whether or not Tambellini might have built a contender by now, lol

  32. flyfish1168 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think Connor’s contract has maxed the league for a while. Who’s got the moxy to ask for more or the same as the clear best player in the league?

    In time and inflation someone will ask for more. Especially when the cap goes up. Not sure what the league max is. Wasn’t Connor asking for a million more but backed off

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    Where’s the line in the sand for it to be a ‘bargain’ contract?

    If you can name a single player (like Crosby) who provides more value, does that suddenly mean that Conor’s isn’t?

    Doesn’t that then apply to every other one as well?

    The silliest part about that is that 97 is better than 87, by a lot.

    There are 30 NHL teams who would take McDavid’s contract today and spend the rest of the summer figuring out the cap. It’s a value contract.

    There are 15 NHL teams who would take Draisaitl’s contract tomorrow and spend the rest of the summer figuring out the cap. It’s a “fair market value” contract.

  34. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think Connor’s contract has maxed the league for a while. Who’s got the moxy to ask for more or the same as the clear best player in the league?

    Tavares may have several teams bidding for him, two in the same division, the Oilers division, with the cap space. San Jose and Vegas. He may not have to ask.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: I am surprised Eichel didn’t sign for more. I can’t see Matthews or Laine signing close to Connor, probably just a little more than Eichel. Hall might match Connor on his 3rd contract. I think the one potentially signing for more can possibly be Doughty. Ekman-Larsson may come close probably not over. JMHO

    I can see Matthews at around $10.5M, Tavares at around $12M, Laine around $9.5M, OEL around $8.5M, Doughty around $11M, Karlsson around $11.5M, etc.

    At some point someone will get more than McDavid – maybe its Tavares (justified as a UFA vs. RFA contract), maybe its Doughty or Kalrsson.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Honest truth is I haven’t read the posts closely enough to know that a distinction has been made.

    I’m guilty of something I bitch to other people about….not reading for content.

    Fair enough – its a big distinction though.

    I want to be very clear that I have never professed McDavid’s contract to be an issue at any time.

    I was simply responding to points that anything below the max is a “value contract” which I don’t agree with in the cap era and vis-a-vis other current contracts.

    No believing that its a value contract does not equate to thinking the contract is an issue or not a good/reasonable contract. People infer these things and its very frustrating.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think Connor’s contract has maxed the league for a while. Who’s got the moxy to ask for more or the same as the clear best player in the league?

    Could be right or potentially Tavares could do so this off season (using the UFA vs. RFA argument).

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Where’s the line in the sand for it to be a ‘bargain’ contract?

    If you can name a single player (like Crosby) who provides more value, does that suddenly mean that Conor’s isn’t?

    Doesn’t that then apply to every other one as well?

    The silliest part about that is that 97 is better than 87, by a lot.

    When I used Crosby as an example its because WG used him as a comparable for value (and he brings his value at a cap hit of $3.8M less) – his is, undoubtedly a value contract.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Tavares may have several teams bidding for him, two in the same division, the Oilers division, with the cap space.San Jose and Vegas.He may not have to ask.

    I hope the flames sign Tavares for $12M or so.

  40. Jaxon says:

    Wilde: You know what’s even better than drafting a sure-thing LW?

    DRAFTING TWO SURE THING LW’s!!

    I’m going to look incredibly stupid if Farabee doesn’t turn out.

    Here is what I will note re: Farabee.
    He only played an estimated 13.25 TOI at 5-on-5
    I’ve found 13.5 minutes as a very real line in the sand for drafting an impact player. Of players who scored very high Primary Points / 60 in their draft season, here is the list of most productive players in Canadian Junior (since 2005) and USHL (since 2016) who played less than 13.5:

    Draft Year – Player – Expected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Top 6 TOI
    2008 Eric O’Dell 34
    2018 Joel Farabee 32***
    2007 Sam Gagner 32
    2006 Bobby Hughes 31
    2006 Riley Holzapfel 30
    2011 Marek Tvrdon 30
    2013 Oliver Bjorkstrand 29
    2006 John Hughes 29
    2015 Zachary Senyshyn 29
    2014 Andrew Mangiapane 28
    2007 Stefan Legein 28
    2011 Justin Thomas 28
    2017 Jacob Tortora 28
    2007 Dale Mitchell 28
    2008 Greg Nemisz 28
    2005 Devin Setoguchi 27
    2015 Blake Speers 27
    2006 Codey Burki 27
    2017 Ivan Lodnia 26
    2005 Daniel Ryder 26
    2010 Austin Watson 26
    2013 Max Domi 26
    2005 Radek Smolenak 26
    2008 Cody Hodgson 25
    2005 Francis Charette 25
    2006 Michael Grabner 25
    2016 Logan DeNoble 25
    2012 Andreas Athanasiou 25
    2006 Peter Mueller 25
    2010 Devante Smith-Pelly 25
    2014 Jayce Hawryluk 25

    Even the players who have had NHL careers have struggled with inconsistency and getting benched. Players like Gagner, Setoguchi, Domi, Hodgson, Grabner, Athanasiou and Mueller are the most successful on this list and they have all struggled throughout their careers and bounced around the NHL.

    Now compare that to the guys with more than 13.5 minutes:

    Draft Year – Player – Expected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Top 6 TOI
    2005 Sidney Crosby 48
    2015 Connor McDavid 44
    2018 Andrei Svechnikov 39***
    2015 Mitchell Marner 37
    2015 Dylan Strome 37
    2014 Robby Fabbri 34
    2007 Patrick Kane 32
    2013 Nathan MacKinnon 30
    2014 Sam Bennett 30
    2014 Spencer Watson 30
    2010 Taylor Hall 30
    2013 Nicolas Petan 29
    2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois 29
    2016 Alex DeBrincat 29
    2016 Cameron Morrison 29
    2016 Adam Mascherin 29
    2008 Steven Stamkos 29
    2009 Scott Glennie 29
    2018 Oliver Wahlstrom 29***
    2013 Jonathan Drouin 29
    2010 Tyler Seguin 29
    2011 Ryan Strome 28
    2006 Chris Stewart 28
    2009 Evander Kane 28
    2005 Bobby Ryan 28
    2017 Owen Tippett 28
    2010 Justin Shugg 28
    2018 Jonathan Gruden 28***
    2017 Nick Suzuki 27
    2009 John Tavares 27
    2010 Tyler Toffoli 27
    2014 Nick Ritchie 26
    2014 Nikolaj Ehlers 26
    2008 Tyler Ennis 26
    2014 Leon Draisaitl 26

    A few misses, but all the hits belong to this list. So while Farabee’s 32 is impressive, his TOI/GP is why I’d be wary of drafting Farabee. Will he be the only one to have a consistently successful career out of the first list? Maybe, but I wouldn’t gamble on it. I’d gamble on Merkley before Farabee. Whalstrom and Gruden look like much better USHL bets by this metric.

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