Telling Tales of Drunkenness and Cruelty

Bill Torrey passed away not long ago, a legendary figure in the game and someone NHL teams can learn from forevermore. It was 1973, the New York Islanders were one year into existence and held the No. 1 overall selection. Quoting Hockey Draft Central:

  • The top pick was a no-brainer, because Ottawa 67s star Denis Potvin had dominated junior hockey like no defenseman since Bobby Orr. Montreal, the most active team on draft day, was determined to get Potvin. The Canadiens re-positioned themselves by trading for several extra high picks and then offered the Islanders all kinds of deals for the No. 1 choice. Islanders general manager Bill Torrey was not interested, however. He held on to the top pick and wisely selected Potvin, who became the building block for a future hockey dynasty.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here.

The Pronman item just dropped and is (as always) a brilliant read with original and refreshing views. It’s Christmas for draft geeks this morning! I’ll have Pronman on the Lowdown later this week.

Checkers vs. OKC Barons, Cox Convention Center, Oklahoma City, OK. 10-5-13. All photos by Rob Ferguson.

SHOOT THE MOON 2011

This week, I’m running throwback ‘shoot the moon’ posts and we’ve arrived at my favorite Oilers draft of this century. Here’s what I had to say on the Sunday night.

  • #1 overall- C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Immediately the best prospect in the system, RNH is a vital pick in the development of this cluster. If he is in fact an elite level playmaker, the Oilers have at least four outstanding candidates for chemistry on the top line and powerplay.
  • #19 overall- D Oscar Klefbom: I talk about a complete defender a lot because they’re really important to a team’s overall success. Klefbom’s numbers in the SEL don’t tell the whole offensive story, but when facing kids his own age the young man posted impressive crooked numbers. I’ll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects (summer edition) tomorrow morning; Klfebom is going to be an interesting player to slot.
  • #31 overall- D David Musil: He was safely in my top 30. I’m all for players with a nice range of skills, but defensemen who can make the safe play have value. Red Line ranked him as the 5th best defenseman in the entire draft, one behind Klefbom.
  • #62 overall- G Samu Perhonen: Matt Bugg dropped by Nation Radio today and riffed on the depth selections in this draft. In regard to Perhonen, he gave me the impression that this is the ultimate risk/reward pick. We could be looking at a quality starter or a dud, with dud rising.
  • #74 overall- C Travis Ewanyk: Future role player has a nice range of skills and therefore a few slots he could fill. PF size and style, he can win faceoffs and projects as a future checking center. I don’t know that he’s going to bring enough offense to make the NHL.
  • #92 overall- D Dillon Simpson: Bugg described a player who has a nice range of skills but some chaos too. I have no idea if he or a Brandon Davidson type will end up winning the day, but I think that’s the race he’s going to be involved in.
  • #114 overall- C Tobias Rieder: Redline Report loves him, describing Rieder as an “undersized, but exceptionally smart playmaking winger with excellent offensive instincts and creativity.” Rieder impressed as a rookie in a very good league and according to Bugg is a guy who will work hard in tough areas to win battles. He was taken at the point in the draft where you shouldn’t expect anything, but it’s also true that Rieder is probably a better NHL prospect than a couple of the kids Edmonton picked before him.
  • #122 overall- D Martin Gernat: Huge kid (6.05, 187) and considered somewhat similar to Marincin (lower ceiling) in style. Raw prospect, will take time but he’s certainly a player of interest.
  • #182 overall- G Frans Tuohimaa: Oilers saw him good and Bugg suggested he’s a guy they might like to come over in fall 2012. Has a nice SP in junior.

This is potentially good news for the Oilers, as the more defensemen who are chosen before No. 10 allows more variety among forwards for Edmonton. Here’s a quick mock for the Top 10 with Dobson going earlier.

  1. Buffalo Sabres: LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). No suspense this year and signals a change in the weather for the beleaguered Sabres. They should be a powerhouse within a few years, perhaps challenging the Maple Leafs for best young group in the east.
  2. Carolina Hurricanes: R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). He’s a terrific prospect with the complete range of skills, we could be looking at a Marian Hossa in real time.
  3. Montreal Canadiens: L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Sometimes when missing out on the top echelon of talent, the drop is so great that trading out is a wise decision. I don’t believe that to be the case with Zadina, who is a magic man with the puck. Although his being a winger is less than ideal for Montreal, it’s well worth the effort of a workaround to make this happen.
  4. Ottawa Senators: RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). This might be a little obvious but the Senators have enjoyed great success in Sweden and there’s little doubt Boqvist is a dynamic player. I don’t think he’s the best player available here, perhaps the Sens trade back and get him, but it’s a natural fit.
  5. Arizona Coyotes: L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). Coyotes can grab a power forward who is likely NHL-ready and has enough skill to play on the top two lines. Arizona has several centers who may end up being a match for Tkachuk’s skills.
  6. Detroit Red Wings: RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). I think this is a natural fit. Detroit’s in a rebuild, with a stud defender on the list of needs. Bouchard plays in the best junior league on the planet and has delivered tremendous results.
  7. Vancouver Canucks: RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). His resume includes a strong draft season (even before the Memorial Cup) and his size/skill/speed combination is attractive. Vancouver’s rebuild has some nice pieces up front, adding a quality defender makes sense.
  8. Chicago Blackhawks: LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). Chicago are in ‘re-load’ as opposed to rebuild and Hughes did himself an enormous favor by playing well at the WHC’s. He played with authority on the power play and for Chicago, Hughes is an ideal addition to an aging blue.
  9. New York Rangers: LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). I’ve been watching the Rangers draft for decades, and believe me when I tell you there’s an extreme change in the weather. First, the Rangers have their first-rounder and that’s an upset. Second, the team has been making astute picks going back to Sean Day in 2016’s third round. Kotkaniemi’s addition (Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil a year ago) would give the Rangers a fabulous trio of forwards to build around in the future.
  10. Edmonton Oilers: RC Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). His big weapon is the shot, with a quick release and a heavy result. Although this would be the third right winger in a row for the Oilers, it would be impossible (imo) for the team to pass on him.

THE DRAFT

Back in the days of Bill Torrey, it was easier to get better in a hurry via the draft. Why? The kids were all 20 and ready to step right in. From 1972-74, Torrey’s Islanders drafted Billy Harris (a two-way right winger capable of 25 goals a year), Bob Nystrom (who blossomed into an effective winger), Gary Howatt (a rugged checking winger), Denis Potvin (who came as advertised), Dave Lewis (effective shutdown blue), Clark Gillies (power winger), Bryan Trottier (the perfect center), Stefan Persson (smart two-way blue) and Dave Langevin (exactly one mountain) as well as a host of others.

It’s more difficult today, there are 31 teams instead of 20 and the eligible players are all hovering around their 18th birthday. That’s why keeping these draft picks, and getting the selection right, is so very important. Peter Chiarelli’s staff have shown real promise since 2015’s edition, one hopes that scouting groups gets the chance to make the call at No. 10 overall.

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164 Responses to "Telling Tales of Drunkenness and Cruelty"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    If the Oilers get a chance to draft Oliver Wahlstrom, What will happen to JP and KY. I’m guessing one of them will be on the trading block.

  2. Wilde says:

    Speaking of cruelty, here’s Matt Canes salary predictions for our RFA defencemen:

    Darnell Nurse
    RFA
    4 years
    $4,955,432

    Matt Benning
    RFA
    2 years
    $2,147,831

  3. Rondo says:

    LT,

    The had a chance last year to take a pure goal scorer and passed him up at #22 Eeli Tolvanen.

    Why would they take Wahlstrom at #10? Is he much better than Tolvanen?

  4. Harpers Hair says:

    Might be worth considering that the Rangers could shake up the first round since they have three picks. They have the currency to trade up if they can find a willing partner.

  5. russ99 says:

    How long will Wahlstrom need? Seems like a draft and stash, maybe for a 2-4 NCAA years then AHL seasoning, looks like he’s going to Harvard this fall.

    I’d prefer Veleno, due to the time needed to get to the NHL, and that we’ll need another prospect that can play center before too long.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    I just picked up The Hockey News Draft Preview.
    Their Top-10:

    1 Rasmus Dahlin
    2 Andrei Svechnikov
    3 Brady Tkachuk
    4 Filip Zadina
    5 Adam Boqvist
    6 Quinn Hughes
    7 Evan Bouchard
    8 Oliver Wahlstrom
    9 Noah Dobson
    10 Ty Smith

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Carolina Hurricanes: R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). He’s a terrific prospect with the complete range of skills, we could be looking at a Marian Hossa in real time.

    Now that there is yard work to be done, I fire up some hockey podcasts while I’m working outside.

    I listened to Craig Custance’s conversation with Paul Krepelka the other day.

    Krepekla was one of the founding agents of the Orr Group (Hall was one of his clients) but sold out a few years ago and “disappeared” out of hockey.

    He’s resurfaced as VP Hockey Operations under Dundon in Carolina.

    One of the things they discussed on the podcast was #2 this year.

    Krepekla had often said during the conversation that CAR needed more tougher/harder to play against players, and he also made it sound like they really, really, really liked Tkachuk.

    I don’t know if they’d take him at #2 or trade back, but if they take Tkachuk instead of Svechnikov I wouldn’t be surprised.

    I’m not saying they do take Tkachuk, but hearing Krepekla talk about him made it clear that Svechnikov isn’t a slam dunk for CAR at 2.

    Here’s a link to the podcast:

    https://theathletic.com/355366/2018/05/15/the-full-60-q-and-a-carolina-hurricanes-vp-of-hockey-ops-paul-krepelka/?redirected=1

    The draft talk is later in the conversation, but I forget where.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    The had a chance last year to take a pure goal scorer and passed him up at #22Eeli Tolvanen.

    Why would they take Wahlstrom at #10? Is he much better than Tolvanen?

    Different year, different draft. I’d be shocked if they passed on him.

  9. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I mentioned this when Custance’s corresponding article came out with a transcription, and came away with the same conclusion: they really, really like Tkachuk.

    Whether that means taking him at 2, or taking a seemingly substandard package to trade down, there’s a dynamic element to the first 15(minutes) of this years entry draft.

    Quotes in question:

    CC: It seems to me, for what you guys need, I look at that roster and I say, ‘They need someone who can pop in 40 goals.’

    Krepelka: The one kid up there other than the defensemen has potential to do that. You have another kid in (Brady) Tkachuk who brings another element to the team that you need. The likelihood I would think of moving it is unlikely, but it’s not out of the question. It’s not 100 percent it’s not being dealt. Everything is open for business down here. If it makes sense and betters the team in the short and long term than it’s something that will be considered for sure.

    CC: If you want to be harder to play against, a Tkachuk always fits that mold.

    Krepelka: He’s going to help any team. He’s the type of guy this organization needs and doesn’t have. That style of player and skill and grit. The way he plays. There are some options at two. My guess is they would keep it. We’re listening. We’ll entertain anything.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    @dellowhockey

    Two graphs. 1. Relationship between F G/60 and team G/60 in 4F1D and 2. Relationship between D G/60 and team G/60 in 4F1D. If your favourite team had a crappy PP in a 4F1D last year and they’re talking about needing more from the D, good luck.

    Dellow posts a couple graphs here showing the relationship between Total Team 5v4 GF/60 with both Forwards and Dmen Goals on 1 4F1D PP (same as Oilers and most teams run)

    Its a killer if you think PP’s run better with a “Dman shooter” on the PP.

    There’s a reason that when Weber went down and Petry took his spot that MTL 5v4 GF/60 jumped significantly.

    Its not that Weber can’t score 5v4 either. He is, by far, the best individual Goal/60 Dman on the 5v4 in the last decade.

    Its that the whole team doesn’t score nearly as much when you rely on a Dman shot.

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/998429783594713088

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I mentioned this when Custance’s corresponding article came out with a transcription, and came away with the same conclusion: they really, really like Tkachuk.

    Whether that means taking him at 2, or taking a seemingly substandard package to trade down, there’s a dynamic element to the first 15(minutes) of this years entry draft.

    Quotes in question:

    CC: It seems to me, for what you guys need, I look at that roster and I say, ‘They need someone who can pop in 40 goals.’

    Krepelka: The one kid up there other than the defensemen has potential to do that. You have another kid in (Brady) Tkachuk who brings another element to the team that you need. The likelihood I would think of moving it is unlikely, but it’s not out of the question. It’s not 100 percent it’s not being dealt. Everything is open for business down here. If it makes sense and betters the team in the short and long term than it’s something that will be considered for sure.

    CC: If you want to be harder to play against, a Tkachuk always fits that mold.

    Krepelka: He’s going to help any team. He’s the type of guy this organization needs and doesn’t have. That style of player and skill and grit. The way he plays. There are some options at two. My guess is they would keep it. We’re listening. We’ll entertain anything.

    Thanks Wilde!

    I didn’t know he published transcripts too.

    Just looked and I guess he transcribes the highlights. The Tkachuk conversation certainly qualifies as a highlight.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @dellowhockey


    Two graphs. 1. Relationship between F G/60 and team G/60 in 4F1D and 2. Relationship between D G/60 and team G/60 in 4F1D. If your favourite team had a crappy PP in a 4F1D last year and they’re talking about needing more from the D, good luck.

    Dellow posts a couple graphs here showing the relationship between Total Team 5v4 GF/60 with bothForwards and Dmen Goals on 1 4F1D PP (same as Oilers and most teams run)

    Its a killer if you think PP’s run better with a “Dman shooter” on the PP.

    There’s a reason that when Weber went down and Petry took his spot that MTL 5v4 GF/60 jumped significantly.

    Its not that Weber can’t score 5v4 either.He is, by far, the best individual Goal/60 Dman on the 5v4 in the last decade.

    Its that the whole team doesn’t score nearly as much when you rely on a Dman shot.

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/998429783594713088

    MTL 5v4 GF/60 with Petry compared to Weber

    Petry – 216 minutes – 7.48 GF/60

    Weber – 90 minutes – 4.01 GF/60

    Again, its not that Weber is bad at shooting on the PP. He’s the best in the last decade and its not close.

    Its that 4F 1D PP’s score when they concentrate on getting shots from the forwards down low.

  13. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MTL 5v4 GF/60 with Petry compared to Weber

    Petry – 216 minutes – 7.48 GF/60

    Weber – 90 minutes – 4.01 GF/60

    Again, its not that Weber is bad at shooting on the PP.He’s the best in the last decade and its not close.

    Its that 4F 1D PP’s score when they concentrate on getting shots from the forwards down low.

    I’m sure Weber is a big reason why teams now get in lanes.

  14. jtblack says:

    I got to give you props Woodghy; you have always continually mention how important the goalie position is and why hockey should be called GOALERING

    I can’t help but look at Andrei vasilevskiy and Marc-Andre Fleury right now and clearly say they’re playing the best of all the goalies in this years playoffs. No surprise thier teams are left standing.

    GOALERING. IT MATTERS

  15. jtblack says:

    LT: Pronman has Dobson @ #20?

  16. Yeti says:

    Lowetide: Kotkaniemi

    If Wahlstrom is taken at #9 (or earlier) do you think the Oil then select Kotkaniemi? Or have they already maxed out their Finn allowance?

  17. slopitch says:

    jtblack:
    LT: Pronman has Dobson @ #20?

    And Bouchard 18. Dmen, man so hard to project.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Yeti: If Wahlstrom is taken at #9 (or earlier) do you think the Oil then select Kotkaniemi? Or have they already maxed out their Finn allowance?

    I think he would be right there, don’t know their list but wouldn’t be at all surprised.

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    Speaking of cruelty, here’s Matt Canes salary predictions for our RFA defencemen:

    Darnell Nurse
    RFA
    4 years
    $4,955,432

    Matt Benning
    RFA
    2 years
    $2,147,831

    Why would Edmonton sign Nurse for four years? If a bridge is the answer it’ll be two years max (otherwise it expires as UFA), if long-term then it’ll be 6-8 years. Also, defensemen get paid on points and Nurse doesn’t have enough of them to warrant $5M.

    I’ve been figuring on $1.75 x 3 for Benning, I think he’d go for that.

  20. Jethro Tull says:

    jtblack,

    As displayed at the IIHFs and during the NHL season, even McDeity finds it difficult to overcome bad goalering.

  21. jtblack says:

    Jethro Tull:
    jtblack,

    As displayed at the IIHFs and during the NHL season, even McDeity finds it difficult to overcome bad goalering.

    Yah that was Horrendous Goalering for CANADA.

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    Bit of a Kink-y thread today, LT!

  23. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Bit of a Kink-y thread today, LT!

    I love that damned song.

  24. jp says:

    Wilde:
    Speaking of cruelty, here’s Matt Canes salary predictions for our RFA defencemen:

    Darnell Nurse
    RFA
    4 years
    $4,955,432

    Matt Benning
    RFA
    2 years
    $2,147,831

    I’m sure Chia will have something to say about that haha

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Looking at the draft order its tough to see a fit where CAR can trade down and still get their guy if their guy is Tkachuk.

    OTT is certainly going to take a Dman.

    MTL needs a forward though and can they pass on Svechnikov? Their scouts have been pretty good (while the GM pisses away value….) so I can’t see them under valuing Svechnikov simply because they need a C more than a winger.

    Should be an interesting draft.

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack,

    Thanks.

    You can’t stare at this stuff for 6+ years without seeing “better teams” get beat by “better goalies” over and over.

    I know its more than goalies and that defending the rickibox matters a lot, but the best goalies are still the best goalies.

  27. Cassandra says:

    ArmchairGM: Why would Edmonton sign Nurse for four years? If a bridge is the answer it’ll be two years max (otherwise it expires as UFA), if long-term then it’ll be 6-8 years. Also, defensemen get paid on points and Nurse doesn’t have enough of them to warrant $5M.

    I’ve been figuring on $1.75 x 3 for Benning, I think he’d go for that.

    Those contract predictions are based on empirical modelling of past contracts. That is, it is based on what defenseman get paid for.

    The 4 yr number is strange, but based on comparables Nurse easily gets 5 M on a long term deal.

    The same model predicts Tavares gets around 10M, not the 12 or higher number that has been thrown around.

    Again, the model is based on historical precedent. They aren’t made up numbers.

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: I love that damned song.

    Waterloo Sunset is a great song, too.

    The Kast Off Kinks still tour, regularly play at my parents’ local pub.

    They remind me of the Hawerchuk Jets. How great would that team have been had they not been at the same time as that Oilers team. How much more mainstream would the Kinks have been had Messrs. Lennon and McCartney not gone to the same school?

    As for me, I’ve always been a dedicated follower of fashion.

  29. Cassandra says:

    slopitch: And Bouchard 18. Dmen, man so hard to project.

    Pronman’s list is fascinating. He makes clear distinctions among the D, and has Wilde’s favourite at 27.

  30. Wilde says:

    Cassandra: Pronman’s list is fascinating.He makes clear distinctions among the D, and has Wilde’s favourite at 27.

    Yeah, I’m not surprised or perturbed by any distinctions made between regular NA forwards playing in major junior leagues.

    I like numbers over scouts for forwards that fit those parameters, as numbers have beaten scouts consistently for the entire history of the NHL draft in that area.

    Will add that I like Pronman’s work, and mean no disrespect by this.

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    Excellent article by Staples at the Cult about Gallant and his coaching style. Gallant refuses to hold players accountable for their mistakes. Kinda the opposite of Tmac.

  32. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    Thanks.

    You can’t stare at this stuff for 6+ years without seeing “better teams” get beat by “better goalies” over and over.

    I know its more than goalies and that defending the rickibox matters a lot, but the best goalies are still the best goalies.

    100%. No better exapmle than your Tim Thomas .940% in 2011. I think Fleury is around that this year.

    For the record; I picked Vegas to finish dead last and said they wouldn’t win 25 Games 🙂 Oooooooooooops

  33. Brantford Boy says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Yeah I was flipping through this last night and comparing it to LT’s top 120… some interesting names thrown around for Oiler potential prospects… watching the game last night… the entire night was focused on Noah Dobson (interviews, intermissions etc.)… I agree with Bobs tweet and agree with LT’s slot for the Canucks to grab him… which is truly frustrating…

    If they choose a forward at #10, I’d like to see them take Calen Addison with the #40… Hockey News has Adam Ginning in that spot… looking forward to LT’s final rank… cheers.

  34. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m not a Staples fan at all, but I found his post today very interesting and it dovetails into what we were talking about in the end of yesterday’s thread, spurred on by a great post by Rube Foster who was riffing off LT’s Nixon post in the same vein.

    I’m not going to link to Staples post, but here’s a cut and paste of the key part:

    “It’s a game of mistakes,” Gallant explained. “You’re not going to be perfect every time you’re on the ice, and then when mistakes happen, you forget about them and you move on. You can go over that game (Game Three of the Conference finals) and there’s not one player on the ice who didn’t make mistakes last night. Like I said, they’ll own up to their mistakes but they don’t have to. That’s part of our game. You make mistakes, you move on, you play the next shift and you hope you make some good plays. Those guys are accountable guys and they work hard and they don’t got to apologize to me. They just go to go out and play their game and get better every shift they can do.”

    The reporter then asked a follow-up question: “It’s obviously a big part of your success, though. Like, is accountability a big part of your success?”

    Gallant shrugged. “I guess it is to a point. But, again, I’m not holding my players accountable for making mistakes. You got out there and if you worry about making mistakes, you’re not going to play a good game. I want you going out there and thinking you’re gonna make the good plays and do the right things on the ice. So don’t worry about your mistakes.”

    We’ve all been talking about how to develop younger talent.

    Putting them in position to succeed being first and foremost among the best strategies.

    I was struck by Gallant insisting that “I’m not holding my players accountable for making mistakes” when he was pressed about “accountability”

    Part of the discussion yesterday was about how many young Oilers “play like they are afraid to make mistakes”

    Maybe part of the VGK magic is the players feel free to create something rather than play in fear of a mistake?

    I know I have shit talked the whole narrative around VGK’s players “playing for each other, having better systems, sum greater than the whole” because most of it is pure made up bullshit.

    That said, players playing with freedom makes sense and doesn’t strike me as “post-factum” bullshit shoehorned into supporting your favorite narrative.

    Its funny, I’ve seen every hobby horse out there on twitter in regards to VGK’s success.

    Doesn’t matter if you hate fancy stats or love them, VGK’s success has been used to support both sides.

    Doesn’t matter if you love intangibles or hate them, VGK’s success has been used to support both sides.

    Etc, etc, “insert your favorite hobbyhorse here” and VGK’s success has been used to debunk it and support it, depending on who is doing the writing.

    All that said, this is the one “intangible” thing that struck me as being true.

    Its a maxim in my own life and philosophy that “anyone who has never made a mistake has never made anything” so maybe I’m riding my own hobbyhorse here….

    It really rings true though.

    McLellan seems to be the opposite type coach…….

  35. Jaxon says:

    Wilde: Yeah, I’m not surprised or perturbed by any distinctions made between regular NA forwards playing in major junior leagues.

    I like numbers over scouts for forwards that fit those parameters, as numbers have beaten scouts consistently for the entire history of the NHL draft in that area.

    Will add that I like Pronman’s work, and mean no disrespect by this.

    Continued from yesterday’s post, I’d have Farabee lower than most but probably not as low as Pronman’s. But I don’t think I’d draft him top 16.

    Chopped from my last response:
    “Haha, I knew Wilde might take exception to this. You may be right, I just think that kind of red flag shouldn’t be ignored. The data I got was from his USHL numbers on prospect-stats.com. You could say the same thing about Junior coaches of all the players on the first list. And the same about the eye test of Gagner, Grabner and others on the first list during their draft season and at international tournaments.

    # Name Age Pos eTOI/GP eP1/60
    1 Jack Hughes 16.34 C 17.07 3.78
    2 Oliver Wahlstrom 17.257 RW 16.26 3.41
    3 Trevor Zegras 16.49 C 15.31 2.15
    4 Jonathan Gruden 17.367 C 14.43 3.33
    5 Ryder Rolston 15.874 C 13.93 2.53
    6 Matthew Boldy 16.447 LW 13.61 2.59
    7 Sean Farrell 15.869 LW 13.34 1.72
    8 Joel Farabee 17.555 LW 13.24 4.01

    Farabee was 8th on his team in 5-on-5 Time On Ice. Behind two 15-year-olds and three 16-year-olds. I wouldn’t have a lot of confidence in that. And he’s substantially behind the first line numbers of 17.07, 16.26, and 15.31.

    Gagner’s scouting report: “A skilled forward with the ability to make the big plays… has very good hands and is creative with the puck… has a good wrist shot with a quick release… has high-end passing skill both forehand and backhand… sees the ice very well… reliable in the defensive end and used in critical situations… a good skater”

    EDIT: Pronman’s new list came out this morning and he has Farabee at 27th! Woah. I wouldn’t put him that low. He has Merkley at #10.”

  36. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    Thanks.

    You can’t stare at this stuff for 6+ years without seeing “better teams” get beat by “better goalies” over and over.

    I know its more than goalies and that defending the rickibox matters a lot, but the best goalies are still the best goalies.

    Watching the Knights one thing that strikes me is how many stick and possession battles they win.

    When the oilers play well they also are winning these battles.

    Gallant spoke about focusing on positives. To me the relentless puck pursuit is tied to players feeling positive and playing to their best, not worrying and clenching sticks. The aren’t fancy but don’t break down much, and Fleury right now isn’t letting in softies.

    It seems they are able to make good on ice puck decisions as well, all of this really limits the opponent unless they can also play as tight.

    McLellan and PC mentioned this year end, perhaps too much stick. I hope they put it into practice and hire Vivieros because of his creativity but mostly his ability to motivate. It’s key now that old ways of controlling players don’t work as well or at all.

  37. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Watching the Knights one thing that strikes me is how many stick and possession battles they win.

    When the oilers play well they also are winning these battles.

    Gallant spoke about focusing on positives. To me the relentless puck pursuit is tied to players feeling positive and playing to their best, not worrying and clenching sticks. The aren’t fancy but don’t break down much, and Fleury right now isn’t letting in softies.

    It seems they are able to make good on ice puck decisions as well, all of this really limits the opponent unless they can also play as tight.

    McLellan and PC mentioned this year end, perhaps too much stick. I hope they put it into practice and hire Vivieros because of his creativity but mostly his ability to motivate. It’s key now that old ways of controlling players don’t work as well or at all.

    WG beat me to it.

  38. Alpine says:

    slopitch: And Bouchard 18. Dmen, man so hard to project.

    Pronman is known for elevating guys he perceives as having potentially elite skill levels. Guys like Bouchard, Dobson, and Smith are safe, well rounded prospects but none of them jump out as having elite ability. Merkley does even if there are other concerns about him.

  39. Wilde says:

    Jaxon,

    I’ve said this before, but I’m operating under the assumption that his special teams minutes probably leads the team, by a lot. In one shift-by-shift video I watched he appeared to play over 5 minutes shorthanded, and everything I’ve read seems to indicate all-diciplines usage

  40. Scungilli Slushy says:

    To me Gallant is saying that his idea of accountability isn’t blame based, as in a player doing what is asked makes a mistake, so he let the team and coach down and must be held accountable.

    They do have accountability, they’d have to in order to play well. If players don’t do what they are asked they don’t play, Tatar would be an example. A lot of spend there for a guy to ride pine. Guys following the plan get rope to play their game.

    McLellan did start giving more rope, Slepy for example toward the end, but it was too late. Caggiula seemed to do what was asked and he got rope all year, although he didn’t make it count.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t wrap my head around some of Pronman’s list:

    Kotkaniemi at 4

    Bokk at 8

    Merkley at 10

    Kupari at 12

    Bouchad at 18

    Dobson at 20

    This is like a Button-like list.

    Haven’t read all the write-ups yet, will need to take them in pieces, there is alot of information.

  42. jtblack says:

    ““anyone who has never made a mistake has never made anything”

    LOVE IT.

    One of my favaorite quote is ” Travel the path of Integrity, without looking back, for there is never a wrong time to do the right thing.”

    Anyway I’m going to try and shoe horn in this narrative about the Vegas golden knights.

    From what I see they constantly pinch their D men in the offensive zone which helps keep plays alive and puts enormous pressure on the other teams Winger’s and usually ends up in them keeping the puck in or getting it back because the player just has to flip it out in a panic.

    The second part is when Vegas gets control in the defensive end they almost always have a Dmen that skates up to support the forwards and if the play unfolds properly that Dmen will go all the way into the offensive zone and try and create a three-on-two or two on one or whatever it may be.

    And I think when you pinch you create enormous pressure on the other team and the other teams feel like Vegas always has an extra man on the ice no matter what zone they are in.

    It would be very interesting to get the stats on how many times Vegas D men pinch in the offensive zone (along the wall) and how many time they join the rush going into the offensive zone. Both which lead to more offensive zone time and more scoring chances. And I would like to know if their statistics on pinching is greater than most teams or the same or less. In my shoe horn narrative, the eye test tells me that they would be greater than most teams.

  43. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t wrap my head around some of Pronman’s list:

    Kotkaniemi at 4

    Bokk at 8

    Merkley at 10

    Kupari at 12

    Bouchad at 18

    Dobson at 20

    This is like a Button-like list.

    Haven’t read all the write-ups yet, will need to take them in pieces, there is alot of information.

    I haven’t heard of “Bokk Choy” at all. And now hes Top 10?

    Pronman has an excellent track record. Prob my fav draft analyst.

  44. Melman says:

    Here’s a question for the smarter-ups than me: who do you think has a higher ceiling Nurse or Klefbom? If the answer is Klefbom, I think Nurse would have the higher trade value, and if PC needs to make a deal that might be the better play (if you think Klefbom has the higher ceiling). I suspect there is zero chance they would trade Nurse so I’ve never really dwelled on it, but the increased return vs. difference in players makes this an interesting idea. Risk of course is Kbom’s injury history and the uncertainty of how good Nurse might get.

  45. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The more lists I look at it seems to me (total hunch) that it will be Evan Bouchard that falls out of favor in the ‘elite top 9’… I’m very much warming to the idea of Ty Smith…

  46. jtblack says:

    Melman:
    Here’s a question for the smarter-ups than me:who do you think has a higher ceiling Nurse or Klefbom?If the answer is Klefbom, I think Nurse wouldhave the higher trade value, and if PC needs to make a deal that might be the better play (if you think Klefbom has the higher ceiling).I suspect there is zero chance they would trade Nurse so I’ve never really dwelled on it, but the increased return vs. difference in players makes this an interesting idea.Risk of course is Kbom’s injury history and the uncertainty of how good Nurse might get.

    If Klefbom had a higher ceiling, why would that mean Nurse would have Higher trade value?

  47. Melman says:

    jtblack,

    Injury history, draft pedigree, last season’s performances. Dealing Klefbom now is selling low

  48. hunter1909 says:

    Freaking horrible that the team with the worst defence in hockey can’t wait to trade it’s few decent defencemen away.

  49. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: If Klefbom had a higher ceiling, why would that mean Nurse would have Higher trade value?

    Please try not to get ahead of the group. Nurse is on the block NEXT season.

  50. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @dellowhockey


    Two graphs. 1. Relationship between F G/60 and team G/60 in 4F1D and 2. Relationship between D G/60 and team G/60 in 4F1D. If your favourite team had a crappy PP in a 4F1D last year and they’re talking about needing more from the D, good luck.

    Dellow posts a couple graphs here showing the relationship between Total Team 5v4 GF/60 with bothForwards and Dmen Goals on 1 4F1D PP (same as Oilers and most teams run)

    Its a killer if you think PP’s run better with a “Dman shooter” on the PP.

    There’s a reason that when Weber went down and Petry took his spot that MTL 5v4 GF/60 jumped significantly.

    Its not that Weber can’t score 5v4 either.He is, by far, the best individual Goal/60 Dman on the 5v4 in the last decade.

    Its that the whole team doesn’t score nearly as much when you rely on a Dman shot.

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/998429783594713088

    What would the difference be between relying upon a D-Man shot and relying upon a LW’s shot in the D-Man areas (Ovechkin)?

  51. Professor Q says:

    jtblack: I haven’t heard of“Bokk Choy” at all.And now hes Top 10?

    Pronman has an excellent track record.Prob my fav draft analyst.

    He’s certainly not a player to Bokk at.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Melman:
    Here’s a question for the smarter-ups than me:who do you think has a higher ceiling Nurse or Klefbom?If the answer is Klefbom, I think Nurse wouldhave the higher trade value, and if PC needs to make a deal that might be the better play (if you think Klefbom has the higher ceiling).I suspect there is zero chance they would trade Nurse so I’ve never really dwelled on it, but the increased return vs. difference in players makes this an interesting idea.Risk of course is Kbom’s injury history and the uncertainty of how good Nurse might get.

    I think Klefbom has a much higher offensive ceiling, Nurse better defensive ceiling. Nurse is a tough player to project, but this past season showed us he could play a substantial role for 40+ games and survive. Can he do 80 games? Consistently?

    All the smart kids say “great defensemen reveal themselves early” and that makes sense based on anecdotal evidence. Today, based on all we know, I think Klefbom has the greater trajectory.

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Mr DeBakey,

    Yeah I was flipping through this last night and comparing it to LT’s top 120… some interesting names thrown around for Oiler potential prospects… watching the game last night… the entire night was focused on Noah Dobson (interviews, intermissions etc.)… I agree with Bobs tweet and agree with LT’s slot for the Canucks to grab him… which is truly frustrating…

    If they choose a forward at #10, I’d like to see them take Calen Addison with the #40… Hockey News has Adam Ginning in that spot… looking forward to LT’s final rank… cheers.

    Would love to get Addison. Don’t think he’s available at 40 though. He’s one of the reasons I don’t have an issue trading down in the first round. 19 pts in 16 playoff games. Dobson had 13 in 20.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: 100%.No better exapmle than your Tim Thomas .940% in 2011. I think Fleury is around that this year.

    For the record; I picked Vegas to finish dead last and said they wouldn’t win 25 Games Oooooooooooops

    Fluery is at .941 so far this playoff

  55. Yeti says:

    Melman:
    Here’s a question for the smarter-ups than me:who do you think has a higher ceiling Nurse or Klefbom?If the answer is Klefbom, I think Nurse wouldhave the higher trade value, and if PC needs to make a deal that might be the better play (if you think Klefbom has the higher ceiling).I suspect there is zero chance they would trade Nurse so I’ve never really dwelled on it, but the increased return vs. difference in players makes this an interesting idea.Risk of course is Kbom’s injury history and the uncertainty of how good Nurse might get.

    IMO, if you could convert Nurse’s tradeability for an equivalent status RHD, you would be forced to consider it given the perceived inability to move either Sekera or Russell. Consider the relative balance of:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – NEW RhD
    Russell – Benning

    So long as the new RhD was a comparable player in terms of talent, not a trade down.

  56. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I’m not a Staples fan at all, but I found his post today very interesting and it dovetails into what we were talking about in the end of yesterday’s thread, spurred on by a great post by This is a link who was riffing off LT’s Nixon post in the same vein.

    I’m not going to link to Staples post, but here’s a cut and paste of the key part:

    “It’s a game of mistakes,” Gallant explained. “You’re not going to be perfect every time you’re on the ice, and then when mistakes happen, you forget about them and you move on. You can go over that game (Game Three of the Conference finals) and there’s not one player on the ice who didn’t make mistakes last night. Like I said, they’ll own up to their mistakes but they don’t have to. That’s part of our game. You make mistakes, you move on, you play the next shift and you hope you make some good plays. Those guys are accountable guys and they work hard and they don’t got to apologize to me. They just go to go out and play their game and get better every shift they can do.”


    The reporter then asked a follow-up question: “It’s obviously a big part of your success, though. Like, is accountability a big part of your success?”

    Gallant shrugged. “I guess it is to a point. But, again, I’m not holding my players accountable for making mistakes. You got out there and if you worry about making mistakes, you’re not going to play a good game. I want you going out there and thinking you’re gonna make the good plays and do the right things on the ice. So don’t worry about your mistakes.”

    We’ve all been talking about how to develop younger talent.

    Putting them in position to succeed being first and foremost among the best strategies.

    I was struck by Gallant insisting that “I’m not holding my players accountable for making mistakes” when he was pressed about “accountability”

    Part of the discussion yesterday was about how many young Oilers “play like they are afraid to make mistakes”

    Maybe part of the VGK magic is the players feel free to create something rather than play in fear of a mistake?

    I know I have shit talked the whole narrative around VGK’s players “playing for each other, having better systems, sum greater than the whole” because most of it is pure made up bullshit.

    That said, players playing with freedom makes sense and doesn’t strike me as “post-factum” bullshit shoehorned into supporting your favorite narrative.

    Its funny, I’ve seen every hobby horse out there on twitter in regards to VGK’s success.

    Doesn’t matter if you hate fancy stats or love them, VGK’s success has been used to support both sides.

    Doesn’t matter if you love intangibles or hate them, VGK’s success has been used to support both sides.

    Etc, etc, “insert your favorite hobbyhorse here” and VGK’s success has been used to debunk it and support it, depending on who is doing the writing.

    All that said, this is the one “intangible” thing that struck me as being true.

    Its a maxim in my own life and philosophy that “anyone who has never made a mistake has never made anything” so maybe I’m riding my own hobbyhorse here….

    It really rings true though.

    McLellan seems to be the opposite type coach…….

    It really is a fascinating point of discussion. Hockey is a game of mistakes. If a player repeatedly makes the same mistake, that becomes a teaching point. But players know when they screw up. What’s the point in harping on it?

    This feeds into the whole goalie narrative too. No one gives a shit if you make a mistake, unless it ends up in the net. So teams with poor goalies likely end up spending much more time focussed on their mistakes. This creates a whole negative feedback loop where players are afraid to make mistakes. And that’s when mistakes happen.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: What would the difference be between relying upon a D-Man shot and relying upon a LW’s shot in the D-Man areas (Ovechkin)?

    Two distinctions:

    1) Ovi shoots from the top of the circle almost exclusively, whereas Weber shoots a lot from close to the blue line. Weber slides down sometimes, but not as often as from the blue

    2) Ovi’s shot is set up as a one timer from a pass on the other side of the ice. This gets all the defenders, and most importantly the goalie moving from their left to right. This creates more space in the net to shoot at.

    Weber’s shot is not a one timer as often and when it is, its not a one timer that causes nearly as much player and goalies movement so its way easier to stop.

    You don’t see the pass from low left of the goalie to Weber often as it won’t make it through. Ovi’s passes almost *always* come from there and cause more goalie movement.

    Here’s their 5v4 shot locations from last year:

    Ovi

    Weber

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: It really is a fascinating point of discussion. Hockey is a game of mistakes. If a player repeatedly makes the same mistake, that becomes a teaching point. But players know when they screw up. What’s the point in harping on it?

    This feeds into the whole goalie narrative too. No one gives a shit if you make a mistake, unless it ends up in the net. So teams with poor goalies likely end up spending much more time focussed on their mistakes. This creates a whole negative feedback loop where players are afraid to make mistakes. And that’s when mistakes happen.

    I don’t doubt that at all.

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    Cassandra: Those contract predictions are based on empirical modelling of past contracts.That is, it is based on what defenseman get paid for.

    The 4 yr number is strange, but based on comparables Nurse easily gets 5 M on a long term deal.

    The same model predicts Tavares gets around 10M, not the 12 or higher number that has been thrown around.

    Again, the model is based on historical precedent.They aren’t made up numbers.

    Well, DUH. Where did I say he pulled these numbers out of his ass?

    Show me who your Nurse comps are that indicate he’ll be getting “easily 5M” on a long-term deal. Name some names please.

    Also, I’d like to hear similar examples of where this model was actually accurate in predicting future contracts, because from what I’ve seen it’s often off by a large margin.

  60. Wilde says:

    ArmchairGM: Well, DUH. Where did I say he pulled these numbers out of his ass?

    Show me who your Nurse comps are that indicate he’ll be getting “easily 5M” on a long-term deal. Name some names please.

    Also, I’d like to hear similar examples of where this model was actually accurate in predicting future contracts, because from what I’ve seen it’s often off by a large margin.

    A lot of the (valid) questions you’re asking here are best ansewered in Matt Cane’s own writing, so I’d encourage you to look him up and read his own words

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Steve Kournianos’ final rankings are also out today and he’s got some wild slots as well including Svechnikov at 1 – I really really like Svechnikov but having him over Dahlin is a little crazy.

    He’s also got:

    – Fabaree at 5 and Valeno at both ahead of Tkachuk at 7

    – Ty Smith at 8 ahead of Hughes at 10, Dobson at 12 and Bouchard at 15

    – Calen Addison at 58 (I’d be stocked to get him with our 2nd rounder)

    https://t.co/L3dzG42vgy

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde: A lot of the (valid) questions you’re asking here are best ansewered in Matt Cane’s own writing, so I’d encourage you to look him up and read his own words

    I have done so in the past, I don’t have time today for an in-depth study. From memory though, I don’t find it a great predictor of new contracts. If you look back at previous summers you’ll see what I mean.

  63. Greenberg says:

    You read all these mock drafts and you build up a consensus in your mind and then along comes Pronman and WHAP. He kicks the hell out of the consensus thinking. So high for the Fin and then you balk at Bokk (sorry) and wonder who the hell he is, and then he chooses Markley at 10 and all these other defencemen you are supposed to want are fluttering on the other side of your choice. You have to check him out just so your own perceptions/prejudices can be given a shake.

  64. innercitysmytty says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I had a theory on this being one of the Oilers biggest issues early in the year. Throw in the heightened expectations from the previous year and the fact that a high percentage of PKs were ending up in the back of the net and this team was afraid to make mistakes or play aggressive from early in the season until they were cooked.

  65. commonfan29 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: McLellan seems to be the opposite type coach…….

    There was one close game near the end of the season where JP got whistled late in the 3rd for high sticking. Turns out it was a bad call and the guy clearly got hit with his own stick rather than JP’s, but I couldn’t help thinking that McLellan was going to cut his icetime next game anyway.

  66. Biggus Dickus says:

    What about a trade with Montreal? Would Galchenyuk and 3 be enough for Draisaitl? I’m gonna say no, unless Svechnikov is there. I just think if there is a team we could bend over backward for with a center, it is Mtl. Maybe Nuge for Galchenyuk and 3? We do only have Nuge for two more years, and then his cap hit could explode. Alternatively, he is a candidate for regression.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: IMO, if you could convert Nurse’s tradeability for an equivalent status RHD, you would be forced to consider it given the perceived inability to move either Sekera or Russell. Consider the relative balance of:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – NEW RhD
    Russell – Benning

    So long as the new RhD was a comparable player in terms of talent, not a trade down.

    So, Trouba.

    I don’t know how i feel about that…… Does Nurse’s plus attitude as compared to Trouba’s (from what I can tell) matter?

    I have no idea what this contract is going to look like for Nurse, it could be in the 3s or the 5s and I have a bit of trepidation.

    I’m looking for a Chiarelli win on this contract!

  68. godot10 says:

    Professor Q: What would the difference be between relying upon a D-Man shot and relying upon a LW’s shot in the D-Man areas (Ovechkin)?

    Off the top of my head…

    It is easier to clog the lane and block a D’s shot without breaking structure. A block of a D’s shot typically clears the zone and kills 20 sec of PP time. A D’s shot is from further away. The D shot does make the goaltender have to consider a cross-ice pass. A D’s shot is less likely to produce a rebound that forces the goaltender to move to stop a 2nd shot.

  69. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: Well, DUH. Where did I say he pulled these numbers out of his ass?

    Show me who your Nurse comps are that indicate he’ll be getting “easily 5M” on a long-term deal. Name some names please.

    Also, I’d like to hear similar examples of where this model was actually accurate in predicting future contracts, because from what I’ve seen it’s often off by a large margin.

    Matheson, Florida is the most direct comparable. Ristolainen is a peer with better offense. He is signing a couple of years after the latter, and one year after the former, which says $5 million and a bit over 8 years is the ballpark figure.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Off the top of my head…

    It is easier to clog the lane and block a D’s shot without breaking structure.A block of a D’s shot typically clears the zone and kills 20 sec of PP time.A D’s shot is from further away.The D shot does make the goaltender have to consider a cross-ice pass.A D’s shot is less likely to produce a rebound that forces the goaltender to move to stop a 2nd shot.

    The lower probability of rebound thing is huge.

    Iirc in one of Tyler’s pieces on 4F1D he has the “goals off rebounds” rate for point shots and shots from forwards and the disparity was significant.

    Makes intuitive sense too.

  71. VOR says:

    What Matt Canes is trying to do is to develop a model in full view of the public in real time.

    The first year he used Linear Regression as the basis of his model. The next year he improved his results by using Beta Regression. This past year he used a Random Forest approach. For 2018 he is supplementing the Random Forest heuristic trees with a LOESS curve fitting exercise. This is an attempt to deal with two of his four model failures.

    The model is bad at predicting salaries for elite players. It also gets older players wrong. The smoothing effect of running the LOESS exercise should help these problems.

    That leaves two problems that are proving trickier. The first is the most common term the model spits out is 1 year. Which isn’t what is observed in the real world.

    The second is the model isn’t equally predictive of salaries for all positions. Future salaries for forwards are much easier to predict than future salaries for dmen. And goalies produce the models biggest misses.

    The model is closing on 15% error on forward salaries and that is in the range of useful predictive power.

    The strength of this model is it doesn’t use salary cap bands or directly comparabling players (small sample size problem).

    I think Matt is on to something. I hope he continues developing the model. But every one needs to remember it is a work in progress with often large misses.

  72. Andy Dufresne says:

    On Bill Torre….

    Brian Burke says Bill Torre told him, “You have to win four series to win a cup, and you are going to have to have the versatility and the skill set to play four different styles.”

    As Burke puts it he would “Build his teams with the plan that they had to be big and physical enough to play in a rough and tumble series; Quick enough to play against a “greyhound” team; Savvy enough to play against a veteran team; And trained well enough to play against a team that relied heavily on a defensive system.

    Sound like Vegas Golden Knights?

    Is this a Chiarelli philosophy as well??

    I would add get the best goaltending possible.

    Once you get down to the final four…..the majority of the time the team with the best goaltender wins.

    Marc Andre Fluery 2018 Conn Smythe Winner.

  73. Andy Dufresne says:

    Nice to see such a large degree of diversity amongst the Draft Analysts

    Pronman with

    Bouchard 18
    Dobson 20
    Ty Smith 21

    Others with Whalstrom within our range.

    Increases chances Oilers keep the pick??

  74. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: So, Trouba.

    I don’t know how i feel about that…… Does Nurse’s plus attitude as compared to Trouba’s (from what I can tell) matter?

    I have no idea what this contract is going to look like for Nurse, it could be in the 3s or the 5s and I have a bit of trepidation.

    I’m looking for a Chiarelli win on this contract!

    I don’t think Nurse gets you Trouba right now. Trouba is already playing first pairing match up minutes for one of the best teams in the league. Plus he shoots right. And it seems you have to pay a premium for that.

    Re the draft.
    Seems like all season long there was a consensus top 9 with the 4 wingers and 5 dmen. Then you had names like Smith, Farabee, Veleno and Kotkaniemi at 10OV.
    Now that Kotkaniemi seems to have moved up the draft board it seems like at least 1 of those original top 9 will be available. In very limited viewings I have been impressed with all the wingers as well as Dahlin, Hughes and Dobson.
    I have not seen Bouchard or Boqvist but I am a little concerned with Boqvist if Promnan doesn’t consider him an elite skater. At that size it’s almost a necessity. I don’t care how creative you are or how well you shoot the puck. That scouting report kind of sounds like Sam Gagne.
    And I also liked Kupari better than Kotkaniemi in the U18 game I saw. Kupari seemed to have true separation speed through the neutral ice. Very skilled guy.

  75. Rondo says:

    Pronman and the Draft Analyst are selling a product they are not real scouts. Cost them nothing for wild picks. I’ll wait for McKenzie and the Black Book.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree that Nurse doesn’t get you Trouba straight up but the following things would give me hesitation to make the trade:

    1) Nurse’s attitude vis-a-vis Trouba’s (i.e. holding out last year, wanting to play in the US, etc.)

    2) Nurse’s skating – its elite skating and, together with his athletisism, he’s get great “skill” – its still TBD where his Hockey IQ ends up

    3) Contract – we don’t know where either will be but I see Trouba being higher than reasonable.

    I would say Trouba has more value, with that I agree, so, contract aside, I would have to make the one for one trade, however, I’m not sure how material a piece I would add to it.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Pronman and the Draft Analyst are selling a product they are not real scouts. I’ll wait for McKenzie and the Black Book.

    I was just about to make a post wondering if these guys were making some intentionally “wild” rankings (both up and down) for “shock” and discussion or real belief?

    They both have Dobson and Bouchard outside the top 10 and, at this point in time, it seems Dobson may be moving himself up, not down.

    I don’t know what to think any more.

    Shit, maybe Svechnikov will drop to 10 with all this randomness – clearly an exaggeration.

    Is it this random every year? I don’t think so but I’ve paid more attention this year than any other year.

  78. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Nice to see such a large degree of diversity amongst the Draft Analysts

    Pronman with

    Bouchard18
    Dobson 20
    Ty Smith21

    Others with Whalstrom within our range.

    Increases chances Oilers keep the pick??

    IMHO this is the most unpredictable top 20 that we’ve seen in recent memory

  79. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: Watched Bure dominate us in WJC in PA.

    I watched Bure in PA as well, but the game I watched was against the Americans

    We were not too far behind the Russians bench. I dont really remember what happened before the event ( my Dad said that the Russian Dman made a bad pass that eventually led to an American goal) but I do remember the Russian coach yelling in Russian ( my Dad says he was swearing) and slapping that Dman on the side of the helmet so hard we could hear it 8 or 9 rows up.

    Today that coach would be in jail.

  80. rickithebear says:

    Elite HD dmen.
    When I looked at past conf final team rosters.
    Thier were Dmen who repeatedly showed up.
    The first I noticed was Rhett warner
    Cup final; Fld, Buf, CGY

    They were elite at keeping fwds to the perimeter.

    Offensive Dmen are offensive
    Take the avg of the top 60 Even g production Dmen
    Compare it to the avg top 180 Even production fwds.
    In past Fwds are 4 times more effective than dmen.

    I have only discussed even play.
    But Even and PP are part of this old theory.

    Table hockey goalies.
    When you go back and look at the save% growth of top 35 goalies each year.
    You will observe a minor jump with the introduction of butterfly.
    Then you see a major jump from 2 goaltenders in the game.
    John van biesbrook and Patrick Roy were the first goalies to use phase 1 of tracking.
    They moved with the puck like a table hockey goalie.
    Causing the introduction of superior hit goalie rates.

    Open/closed theory:
    If pucks hit goalies they do not go in.
    What % do hit open areas?

    Elite open shot goalies
    What is a goalies save % relative.

    0% chance Corsi
    What corsi’s have Zero chance
    Blocked, missed, hit goalie.

    Elite openshot goalues
    What is the true open HD shot chart.

    What truly causes CA.values.
    Failed entries, blocked shots, missed shots, opp quick pocession from rebounds, giveaways, line changes with out pocession ( this is huge), ZS FO losses.
    Largely forward and off d failure. With coaches bench change.

    Elite Zone entry def dmen
    Since dmen s def affect can only be measured by opp pocession going against fwd NZ trap or No NZ trap
    It is at this point we can look at opp pocession when it comes to zone penetration for Dmen.
    Success rates as % for the 2 options.
    But it must be partnered with a Corsi x,y measure for each.

    Elite 0% Corsi Dmen
    Which dman has the highest % of 0% corsi
    (Block+ misses + closed shots)

    I can give you are reason for everyone of my theories.
    The math shows you without a graph or a chart.

    You have to identify the binary mechanisms that create the sum.

    I could go on.

    I have lined up a group of people who did long before you guys.

    I will never forget the movie working girl when corporate turned to weaver and said “ how did you come up with the idea”

    You do not have to worry about me giving you an answer.
    Or people willing to be on a video as an introduction to the theory.

  81. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    And then Pittsburgh came and crumpled up that piece of paper and threw it away

  82. --hudson-- says:

    rickithebear,

    Curious on how you define open holes? A goalie who moves cross crease slowly will not square up. A quick goalie who squares up will not be credited with an open hole save?

    And how about the skill of the playmakers. A pass that lies flat in the wheelhouse is an HD open hole chance, but if the shooter flubs it does the goalie get credit? Conversely if the pass is poor but the shot is good that could still be an HD save.

    Curious how you reduce it to a binary problem with this number of dimensions.

  83. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’ve been wanting to raise this accountability quote since I first heard it. We get a lot of talk in these comments about why TMac doesn’t hold so-and-so accountable…

  84. innercitysmytty says:

    Munny,

    I think the larger issue with TMac is that there seems to be inconsistency in how the accountability is used and for which players.

  85. VOR says:

    The entire idea that shots that hit goaltenders don’t go in is not supported by the evidence. Well over a quarter of all goals hit the goalie on the way in. Regardless of the famous table hockey goalie conceit pucks still hit goaltenders and go in with great regularity.

    Even if Ricki limited his idea to shots that hit the goalie square he would still be wrong. That is a round frozen rubber disk. It behaves erratically. Every goalie has horror stories of simple seeming saves turning into nightmarish searches for pucks lost somewhere in their equipment.

    Not to mention rebound control is a thing. As is smothering the puck and stopping play. As is moving the puck to your teammates. In other words a simple shot off my chest can create an incredibly dangerous scoring chance depending on what I do next.

  86. rickithebear says:

    Save% changes have occurred over time.
    Pre expansion
    the best were .924 and median was slightly above .900; .890 in bottom
    Origional expansion
    Less production depth .940 and .910 median; .895 bottom
    Further expansion
    .920; .895 median; .870 bottom
    WHL expansion
    .900 top; .880 median; .860 bott
    End of 90,s was intro of better side to side motion
    .910 top ; 885 median; 875 bottom
    93-94 intro of full table hockey movement paired with open hole reflexes.
    Hasek .930; JVB .924; .900 median; 880 bott
    End of 90’s
    Top above .920; median .905; .890 bottom
    Pre 04-05 lockout
    930-35 top; 7-8 .920; 912 median; .895 bottom
    Pre 12-13 lockout
    .935 top; 9-10 .920+; median .915; .905 Bottom
    Post 12-13 lockout
    .930 top 5-6 .925+; .920 median; .910 bottom
    Current
    .930 top; 5-6 .920+; .915 median; .905 bottom

    I do not know when new stick tech was introduced.

  87. BONE207 says:

    Hasek…now I wish I had a table hockey goalie like that.
    All this talk of binary stats in a game so random to me seems unthinkable. Round puck, oversized equipment, shitty ice & emphasis on getting something (even your jock) in the way of a shot does not lend to a 2 option event. Luck as well as other outcomes are a large factor.
    My hope is TMac plays the strength of the players over the system. Maybe Talbot will fare better next season.

  88. VOR says:

    rickithebear:
    Save% changes have occurred over time.
    Pre expansion
    the best were .924 and median was slightly above .900; .890 in bottom
    Origional expansion
    Less production depth .940 and .910 median; .895 bottom
    Further expansion
    .920; .895 median;.870 bottom
    WHL expansion
    .900 top; .880 median; .860 bott
    End of 90,s was intro of better side to side motion
    .910 top ; 885 median; 875 bottom
    93-94 intro of full table hockey movement paired with open hole reflexes.
    Hasek .930; JVB .924; .900 median; 880 bott
    End of 90’s
    Top above .920; median .905; .890 bottom
    Pre 04-05 lockout
    930-35 top; 7-8 .920; 912 median; .895 bottom
    Pre 12-13 lockout
    .935 top; 9-10 .920+; median .915; .905 Bottom
    Post 12-13 lockout
    .930 top 5-6 .925+; .920 median; .910 bottom
    Current
    .930 top; 5-6 .920+; .915 median; .905 bottom

    I do not know when new stick tech was introduced.

    Your post is filled with noise. But I will focus on just one glaring example. You have made no allowance for changes in equipment or number of penalties. In other words you have denuded the data set of vital context. The result is a lot of numbers signifying nothing.

    But wait, you have the basic data wrong.

    And just for fun you have thrown in a data for the birth of the table hockey goalie conceit. That would be so much more important if you had any evidence in support of any change in how goalies moved over time from side to side or played the position. Please feel free to post some evidence or for that matter to try to explain the theory well enough any one reading can understand it well enough to see if logically or intuitively it makes sense.

  89. rickithebear says:

    VOR:
    The entire idea that shots that hit goaltenders don’t go in is not supported by the evidence. Well over a quarter of all goals hit the goalie on the way in. Regardless of the famous table hockey goalie conceit pucks still hit goaltenders and go in with great regularity.

    Even if Ricki limited his idea to shots that hit the goalie square he would still be wrong. That is a round frozen rubber disk. It behaves erratically. Every goalie has horror stories of simple seeming saves turning into nightmarish searches for pucks lost somewhere in their equipment.

    Not to mention rebound control is a thing. As is smothering the puck and stopping play. As is moving the puck to your teammates. In other words a simple shot off my chest can create an incredibly dangerous scoring chance depending on what I do next.

    Vor I get tired of theoretical people giving low occursnce semantics to support an argument.

    What is my theories name.
    Open/ closed shot theory.

    How did I explain it?
    A closed shot is a corsi that reaches the net in elevation and hits the goalie with 0% chance of going in.
    Open shot is a corsi that reaches open space in net elevation and has a greater than 0% chance of going in.

    What was my repeated example I bring up.
    Goalie holds position and a puck is shot into his glove. 0% chance of going in the net.
    This is a phase. A save.

    Like rugby I like to use phases of held pocession to define the play.

    The puck is now possessed by a new team. Ph1
    Phase2 occurs when the goalie does the traditional arm swing.
    Taking the potential of that puck going in the net from 0% to greater than 0%.
    A. If it slips out of his glove and goes into the net without help it is an own goal.
    B. If it drops on the ice and his team processes it
    Phase3
    C. If the opposition shoots the puck on the ice into the net.
    Pocession change PH1 Goal.

    If a puck is shot at the net a hits a post
    A. deflects wide it is a miss.
    Deflects towards open space in net. It can be
    B. saved by the goalie,
    C. saved by one of the skaters
    D. Go in the net
    Deflects off the post towards front of net
    E. Hit goalie and go in net. Own goal
    F. Hit goalie and covered ( save)
    G. Hit skater and go in net
    H. Hit skater and be covered (save)
    Get clear of goalie in front of net.
    J. Team processes
    K. Opposition processes and recycles phase2
    L. Opposition pocesses and shoots
    After shot
    M. Puck, hits post repeat A-L
    N. Puck Is saved, a goal,, possibility of options.

    Direction and momentum of puck.
    Shot at a goalie at the edge of open hole and goalies equipment. It can
    A. Deflects in open shot and goal.
    Does not go in but drops.
    Save and free puck waiting for
    A. Rebound shot opps
    B. Team skater retrieval
    C. Covered puck.

    When I say binary mechanism, you have to break it down to play mechanic options that are defined by phases.

    Anyone can define own goal, open shot and closed shot.

    VOR
    What confusion is there.

    Anyone who works in the real world understands energy potential.
    Mechanics of phased movement.
    All things are physics.

    Who would study dynamic movement without working to the proper level of error effect.
    Hockey is the binary mechanism of play.
    You do not want error to 7 decimal points that requires going beyond standard level of energy potential.
    1 decimal point takes you to single goal differentiation.

    The game is goals for. And Goals against.
    You want the players that yield the elite mechanisms for getting goals and preventing goals.
    Looking for permutations of playing mechanics ( styles) to achieve the best of outer markers.
    Dump the worst of the outer markets.

    An Emperical pocession question.
    As skaters get closer to the net they are better able to target open spaces with less reaction time for goalie.
    but it is harder to penetrate.with pocession.
    Goal differential matters.

    In a cap world what is the most efficient way to contend for a cup

  90. rickithebear says:

    VOR: Your post is filled with noise. But I will focus on just one glaring example. You have made no allowance for changes in equipment or number of penalties. In other words you have denuded the data set of vital context. The result is a lot of numbers signifying nothing.

    But wait, you have the basic data wrong.

    And just for fun you have thrown in a data for the birth of the table hockey goalie conceit. That would be so much more important if you had any evidence in support of any change in how goalies moved over time from side to side or played the position. Please feel free to post some evidence or for that matter to try to explain the theory well enough any one reading can understand it well enough to see if logically or intuitively it makes sense.

    I am sorry I though this was how you presented your evidence.
    With Numbers in a Calculator.
    With no Emperical marriage within dynamic break down of play.

    Physical action causes change.
    What change do we desire.
    What are the critical variables in valuation of mechanism.

    That is why we identify the combination of individual mechanisms that greatly affect goal dif results.
    Cause thier are a multitude of permutations of action that can occur in game play.
    The large affect ones matter!

    They let you build a roster.

  91. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    And then Pittsburgh came and crumpled up that piece of paper and threw it away

    Lead
    I now realize you are a blind alcoholic who only listens to games.
    A post here using a brail machine.

    Top 10 HD goalie:
    2016 Murray,
    2017 Fluery switched to controlled movement.

    Top 60 HD dmen
    2016 Cole, love joy Matta
    2017 Cole Matta Hainsey

    Thier forwards collapsed to perimeter of HD area when defending.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Greenberg,

    So high for the Fin and then you balk at Bokk (sorry)

    Never apologize for excellence.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rondo:
    Pronman and the Draft Analyst are selling a product they are not real scouts. Cost them nothing for wild picks. I’ll wait for McKenzie and the Black Book.

    I don’t know Draft Analyst, but I know Pronman’s work.

    He does the same work most scouts do.

    Watches a ton of hockey in small rinks in a variety of spots.

    He was at ESPN before The Athletic (was the reason I bought an “insider” subscription).

    He gets paid regularly for what he writes and isn’t dependant on selling “draft guides” like many in the business.

    He has no reason to be controversial, his paycheque doesn’t depend on it.

    As someone who has valued his writing and opinions for years I think you really don’t know what you are talking about with this derision of him and his opinions.

    No one who was familiar with his work would ever accuse him of what you did.

  94. JimmyV1965 says:

    I apologize in advance for the long post. I was truly blown away by the Staples article on Gallant and his philosophy of not holding players accountable for their mistakes.

    I wonder how this relates to gap control. The Knights are stifling with their gaps. They’re on you right away. The forwards have very little time and space when it comes to zone entries.

    How important is confidence when it comes to gap control? Every dman knows you have to reduce or eliminate the gaps, but you look at a guy like Russell and he’s always backing in, giving up huge gaps. Is he afraid to close on the forward for fear of getting beat? It seems to me that the Knights are almost reckless in their pursuit of the puck carrier. They have no fear of making the big mistake and getting beat.

    I don’t think Tmac is capable of instilling this kind of confidence in his players. I hope I’m wrong. More realistically, I hope our new assistants can breed this kind of attitude. Not holding my breath though.

  95. rickithebear says:

    VOR
    I presented a hook with that Save% data.
    Which gives a period range by does not break down the level of mechanism needed.

    What have I stated about goalies
    1. You can define them based on HD density faced and GA yielded in a game.
    2. You can define a goalie by Dpairs who create the save % avg thru HD shot density.

    Thier is a very important secondary mechanism that excludes a large portion of shot data.
    The open and closed shot occurs until shot energy ends.
    Or
    Puck path changes from other player contact causing a phase change.
    3. You define them based on Open shot HD density faced and GA yielded.
    4. You can define a goalie by Dpairs who create the % of open sh save % avg thru open sh HD Density.

    You kind of want a smooth movement goslie who,s type1 tracking ( table hockey goalie with puck) is elite.
    and
    open space coverage thru acceleration and equipment movement is elite.

    But save % is dependent on puck path ( shot phase change) tracking of the goalie.
    And
    HD density yielded and Dpairs 0% corsi yeilded per CA.

    Top 10 Open HD goalies can be found under 2-4m
    Top 60 HD dmen cost less than Off dmen in a cap world if they do not play PP.

  96. hunter1909 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Increases chances Oilers keep the pick??

    I know this will probably come off as condescending and or flat out lame; but since when are the Oilers in “win now” mode? The Dynasty team had little use for draft picks, because they had twice as many HOFers as anyone else, but these Oilers are currently a disaster, and consequently desperately need to restock their depleted prospect pool with, according to simple logic the highest picks possible.

    Let’s imagine they do manage to trade away the pick. They’re not going to get anyone particularly better than Patrick Maroon. They won’t get much more than another stopgap player which is the last thing a desperate team needs.

    Or imagine if they trade away that pick and it turns out that it’s yet another star player lol

  97. VOR says:

    Here is a simple question. How do you define traditional arm swing?

  98. Wilde says:

    rickithebear: Vor I get tired of theoretical people

    VOR:
    Here is a simple question. How do you define traditional arm swing?

    Oh yeah?

    Here is a simple question VOR: How do you know you’re a real person??

  99. Wilde says:

    hunter1909: I know this will probably come off as condescending and or flat out lame

    When did you start using this disclaimer??

  100. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I apologize in advance for the long post. I was truly blown away by the Staples article on Gallant and his philosophy of not holding players accountable for their mistakes.

    I wonder how this relates to gap control. The Knights are stifling with their gaps. They’re on you right away. The forwards have very little time and space when it comes to zone entries.

    How important is confidence when it comes to gap control? Every dman knows you have to reduce or eliminate the gaps, but you look at a guy like Russell and he’s always backing in, giving up huge gaps. Is he afraid to close on the forward for fear of getting beat? It seems to me that the Knights are almost reckless in their pursuit of the puck carrier. They have no fear of making the big mistake and getting beat.

    I don’t think Tmac is capable of instilling this kind of confidence in his players. I hope I’m wrong. More realistically, I hope our new assistants can breed this kind of attitude. Not holding my breath though.

    Fear stifles the unconscious ability to be in the correct spot.
    Or
    Take the correct action.

    Joy is almost always being in the correct spot and teammates telling you they trust you the most.

    Off forward and Dman are the most expensive pieces in the hockey cap world.
    It is easier to outscore o goals than 1 you almost always end up with a 100% win %
    It is easier to outscore 1 goal than 2 you still end up with a very good win%
    It is easier to outscore 2 goals than 3 you will end up with slightly above avg win%
    It is easier to outscore 3 than 4 Goals you will end up with a below average win%
    It is easier to outscore 4 goals than 5 you will end up with a poor win%

    It is interesting looking at the goals yeilded by dpair and goalie units.
    Breaking them down into realistic Comp, Team, ZS situations and comparing them to situational means for other given GA season data.

  101. VOR says:

    rickithebear:
    VOR
    I presented a hook with that Save% data.
    Which gives a period range by does not break down the level of mechanism needed.

    What have I stated about goalies
    1. You can define them based on HD density faced and GA yielded in a game.
    2. You can define a goalie by Dpairs who create the save % avgthru HD shot density.

    Thier is a very important secondary mechanism that excludes a large portion of shot data.
    The open and closed shot occurs until shot energy ends.
    Or
    Puck path changes from other player contact causing a phase change.
    3. You define them based on Open shot HD density faced and GA yielded.
    4. You can define a goalie by Dpairs who create the % of open sh save % avg thru open sh HD Density.

    You kind of want a smooth movement goslie who,s type1 tracking ( table hockey goalie with puck) is elite.
    and
    open space coverage thru acceleration and equipment movement is elite.

    But save % is dependent on puck path ( shot phase change) tracking of the goalie.
    And
    HD density yielded and Dpairs 0% corsi yeilded per CA.

    Top 10 Open HD goalies can be found under 2-4m
    Top 60 HD dmen cost less than Off dmen in a cap world if they do not play PP.

    The problem is none of these terms have definitions. Without definitions we can’t generate data sets. Without data sets we can’t do any structured analysis. Without that analysis we can’t tell if your theory or theories have merit.

    You also need to articulate your theory more completely and more clearly.

  102. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    So what you do with Schultz and Letang? They magically and conveniently disappear? And those great defensemen, what happened to them. Love joy plays 16 min a night. Ian cole while pretty good plays 3rd line. Somehow your magical theory took a tumbledown the stairs

    You are a master of hindsight. You post all these hindsight numbers, but zero foresight. You just call people stupid but you never post anything showing any predictive value. 0. Because you know your theory is crap. You want your theories taken seriously. Please post next years standings. Otherwise good for you, you can find limited value hd defensemen burried in lineups playing 15 min a night. Great. They may find employment for a few years until they are replaced by modern defensemen

  103. VOR says:

    Wilde:
    Oh yeah?

    Here is a simple question VOR: How do you know you’re a real person??

    Same way I know you are once again practicing, what did you call it? Jackassery.

  104. Wilde says:

    Something I forgot to note earlier when we were talking Pronman:

    He’s got Ruslan Ishkakov at 17.

    I made a post on him earlier on the season, but basically he’s an incredibly potent offensive threat by MHL numbers and his hands are some of the best in the draft

    Back when I first noticed him, I was floating him as a rd 4-7 pick. Pronman /may/ be the one of the only scouts with a read on the guy, but I doubt it.

    But then, Pronman also notes that he could actually go undrafted.

    Here’s my ultimate ‘Make Don Cherry incredibly angry’ Oilers 2018 list:

    Rd1: Adam Boqvist

    Rd2: Jonatan Berggren

    Rd3: Niklas Nordgren

    Rd5: Ruslan Ishkakov

    Rd6: Severi Lahtinen

    Rd7: I ran out of undersized late round Europeans, spin the wheel

  105. rickithebear says:

    VOR
    A goslie moves with the puck
    Glove held up in his comfort position.
    puck is shot in glove with no/ minimal movement relative to puck size csptiure.
    A 0% corsi shot (closed) has occurred.
    Then a direction change is applied to the puck ( usually perpindicular to the closed shot )
    We have different physic applied
    The energy potential has increased and probability of puck going in the net has increased.
    But thier will be a minimum arm swing action that has yeilded goals from dropped pucks.
    Baseline result.

    I have not actioned my video review to this small permutation occursnce.
    Thier is further mechanism affects to define. And determine if there affect can cause goal diff potential change.

    Physics baby!

  106. Wilde says:

    VOR: Same way I know you are once again practicing, what did you call it? Jackassery.

    This is no practice, I’m in the big leagues now

  107. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    He doesn’t want parameters or data. Cause if he’s proven wrong he can’t call us all stupid. It’s better to keep things really vague. Like goalie acceleration and smooth movements. Yeah wtf you going to do with that? watch a goalie practice everyday maybe. For a guy that talks about binary data, that crap is about as far away from binary data. Or when shot energy ends? It’s just unquantifiable word filler.
    Ask him about telling you who wins the playoffs before they start, Crickets. Ask him after they have been finished. “I knew exactly how it was going to turn out”

  108. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    So a tipped puck changes potential energy of the puck?

    This is all just a pile of Bear crap

  109. rickithebear says:

    VOR:

    Mechanisms can be broken down to a needed affect level.
    But you want to seek the best playing styles of the positive affect mechanisms.

    There are a combinations of mechanism permutations that may result in a negative Occurance.
    What people call luck. But thier probability potential. Does not warrant extensive corrective investigation cause it has minimal to zero goal diff value.

    Avg HD shot goes in 17.5% and avg LD goes in 3.5%
    5:1 that is the biggest goal diff variable thier is in the game.

    That is the first one you fix.

    Then the next.

  110. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    So a tipped puck changes potential energy of the puck?

    This is all just a pile of Bear crap

    When playing sports.
    At professional levels.
    Many sports define phase based mechanism of play.

    The path of everything can now be tracked.

    I stated a few years back that The makers of the program that can extract phase tracking from known camera position images will change analytics of the game.
    But the headings of the data used will have been defined by me.

    It changes the phase of the puck, A corsi from the point that is tipped to elevation in the net is not a shot. The tip is a shot. The point Corsi never reached the net and by definition becomes a pass.

    When is a shot not a shot?

  111. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Bears do get delusions of grandeur. Good to know

  112. --hudson-- says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I apologize in advance for the long post. I was truly blown away by the Staples article on Gallant and his philosophy of not holding players accountable for their mistakes.

    I wonder how this relates to gap control. The Knights are stifling with their gaps. They’re on you right away. The forwards have very little time and space when it comes to zone entries.

    How important is confidence when it comes to gap control? Every dman knows you have to reduce or eliminate the gaps, but you look at a guy like Russell and he’s always backing in, giving up huge gaps. Is he afraid to close on the forward for fear of getting beat? It seems to me that the Knights are almost reckless in their pursuit of the puck carrier. They have no fear of making the big mistake and getting beat.

    I don’t think Tmac is capable of instilling this kind of confidence in his players. I hope I’m wrong. More realistically, I hope our new assistants can breed this kind of attitude. Not holding my breath though.

    You might be interested in the work of Daniel Kahneman, he has a famous story on fighter pilot instruction.

    “In the late 60s, Kahneman was a consultant for the Israeli Air Force. He lectured instructor pilots on the latest research that showed that reward was far more effective than punishment at improving performance. Instructor pilots were not buying any of it.

    They told Kahneman, when student pilots have a bad flight we yell and scream at them, and the next day they tend to do better. But when they have a good flight we’ll praise them like you suggest, and they tend to do worse.

    It was then that Kahneman realized how natural variation in performance, and its natural regression to the mean, were fooling the flight instructors into believing it was their yelling and screaming that improved the student pilots’ performance. Flight instructors saw this:

    student has poor flight –> yelling and screaming –> improvement on subsequent flight

    When in reality, they were just as likely to see this:

    student has poor flight –> improvement on subsequent flight

    What does this have to do with firing coaches? Owners rarely fire coaches who just finished a successful season. A new coach comes in and there is usually an improvement, but that improvement would tend to happen anyway, with or without a new coach, simply due to regression to the mean.”
    http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/02/fighter-pilots-and-firing-coaches.html

    You can also read about him in “Thinking Fast and Slow” or the “Undoing Project”.

    Now as a meta-comment, something I am struggling with, why do we not afford McLellan or Chiarelli the same amount of variation in performance that we give the players? If Klefbom, McL and Chia all had exceptionally poor years, why would we assume only Klefbom is the one to improve?

    Maybe with one more year of weight loss under his belt, McLellan will be less hangry, and help give his players the confidence to raise their level of play. After years of bad trades in June, maybe this is the summer Chiarelli knocks it out of the park.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    And then Pittsburgh came and crumpled up that piece of paper and threw it away

    The problem with McLellan, from someone who is an outside observer, is that there are multiple sets of accountability rules.

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    Offensive Dmen are offensive
    Take the avg of the top 60 Even g production Dmen
    Compare it to the avg top 180 Even production fwds.
    In past Fwds are 4 times more effective than dmen

    That’s the issue.

    To evaluate if a Dman is “offensive” you need to see if he increases scoring by everyone who plays with him.

    Lots of Dmen score points and get paid for it but their teams actually score less when they are on the ice.

    This is the single biggest inefficiency in the NHL imo.

    Dmen points don’t matter. They really don’t.

    I credit you and Tyler for pushing me to see the forest for the trees on this one.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    Elite open shot goalies
    What is a goalies save % relative.

    0% chance Corsi
    What corsi’s have Zero chance
    Blocked, missed, hit goalie.

    Elite openshot goalues
    What is the true open HD shot chart

    While this makes sense in theory, I don’t know of any source of data that would allow you to test this theory.

    Do you have this data?

    Source?

  116. VOR says:

    rickithebear: When playing sports.
    At professional levels.
    Many sports define phase based mechanism of play.

    The path of everything can now be tracked.

    I stated a few years back that The makers of the program that can extract phase tracking from known camera position images will change analytics of the game.
    But the headings of the data used will have been defined by me.

    It changes the phase of the puck, A corsi from the point that is tipped to elevation in the net is not a shot. The tip is a shot. The point Corsi never reached the net and by definition becomes a pass.

    When is a shot not a shot?

    I think that your job is already taken by David Pearsall.

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/David_Pearsall/publication/284463909_Biomechanics_of_ice_hockey/links/5ad5f7b3a6fdcc2935815b10/Biomechanics-of-ice-hockey.pdf?origin=publication_detail

  117. Mike says:

    Does anyone have interest in a Nurse for Parayko deal?

  118. Harpers Hair says:

    Good grief.

  119. Munny says:

    Caps finally break the goose egg.

  120. digger50 says:

    Nice to catch up on the posts today, and I’m very happy to see the discussion of coaching and player accountability continuing. I was on about this yesterday in my own Rikki way but some of our posters are so much clearer and such good authors.

    Back to Tmac. The McBlender seems absolutely disasterous in building confidence. Players on edge all the time. This is the opposite of supporting players, letting them get confident, build chemistry, build identity in thier position, thier role, thier linemates.g

  121. VOR says:

    Actually, I think anyone who loves hockey would find the David Pearsall paper I linked to above (in my response to Ricki) fascinating.

    There is some very interesting work being done in the Biomechanics of hockey. But it is very clearly early days.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stuart Skinner having a phenomenal night and keeping the Broncos in the game – he’s stopped 36 of 37 through 2.

    1-1 going in to the third.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Mike:
    Does anyone have interest in a Nurse for Parayko deal?

    STL doesn’t.

    Nurse’s lunch was eaten by Edmundson at the WC.

  124. innercitysmytty says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Exactly! Posted the same idea earlier in the thread. And that’s significantly more problematic than simply having accountability and applying it consistently. Any chance he can change, especially with some different insight from new assistants? Other old school HCs have but not many.

  125. Mike says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Oh well that’s unfortunate, haven’t watched any hockey lately.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mike:
    Does anyone have interest in a Nurse for Parayko deal?

    Of course – the STL Blues would have no such interest mind you.

  127. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Lou to the NY is very interesting. It’s unclear if he’s replacing Snow, or Snow is reporting to him

    – I was skeptical of the hiring of Lou by the Laughs, but he navigated the structure very well

    – Having a great hockey guy, that you know is being hired for his acumen, that gets scooped up right away is something. I can’t think of a Heach coach or management that after their tenure here, got scooped up quickly elsewhere. Todd Nelson to RedWings AHL is I guess the closest.

    – Now of course, no one actually gets fired in Edmonton, so there’s that

  128. LadiesloveSmid says:

    What was the story with Skinner in Lethbridge? Traded right before some regression? Goalie coach? 51/52 so far tonight, the SC defence doesn’t look like much. STL 1st rounder Thomas running the show.

  129. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR:
    Actually, I think anyone who loves hockey would find the David Pearsall paper I linked to above (in my response to Ricki) fascinating.

    There is some very interesting work being done in the Biomechanics of hockey. But it is very clearly early days.

    – I tried to open it: message says: “trying to validate your browser” for last 10 minutes

    – Too much porn cookied on my browser?

  130. Pescador says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: –

    – Too much porn cookied on my browser?

    Shut you’re whore mouth,
    Nst

  131. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: STL doesn’t.

    Nurse’s lunch was eaten by Edmundson at the WC.

    Fine,
    Nurse for Edmundson then

  132. Munny says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Opened okay in IE11 once I answered the “open/save/etc” prompt for a pdf.

  133. Munny says:

    Holtby with the home shutout in the building with the hexiest playoff hex of all on the Caps. Bolts lose their first playoff game in team history in DC.

  134. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    rickithebear,

    Offensive Dmen are offensive

    Dmen points don’t matter.They really don’t.

    I credit you and Tyler for pushing me to see the forest for the trees on this one.

    – That;s big of you

    – One of Rickis mantra’s that I always liked was along the liines of “Why pay $6MM+ for 3rd/4th line offensive production for an “elite” scoring D?”

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a performance by Stuart Skinner tonight – he stopped 54 of 56 but Hamilton scored with 2 minutes to go to win it. Some huge saves.

  136. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Poor Skinner holds his team in it until the 58th minute. 54 save performance. OHL outskilling the WHL for another year. Swift Current D (and team as a whole) was dismal.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner’s 54 save performance was the 2nd most in Memorial Cup history.

  138. Spooky Lynx says:

    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC

    Also expecting some clarity on Mark Hunter’s situation in the next few days. Hunter is not at the Memorial Cup…fueling the belief he will be leaving the Maple Leafs.

    9:23 PM · May 21, 2018

  139. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Rondo:
    Pronman and the Draft Analyst are selling a product they are not real scouts. Cost them nothing for wild picks. I’ll wait for McKenzie and the Black Book.

    I don’t know Draft Analyst, but I know Pronman’s work.

    He does the same work most scouts do.

    Watches a ton of hockey in small rinks in a variety of spots.

    He was at ESPN before The Athletic (was the reason I bought an “insider” subscription).

    He gets paid regularly for what he writes and isn’t dependant on selling “draft guides” like many in the business.

    He has no reason to be controversial, his paycheque doesn’t depend on it.

    As someone who has valued his writing and opinions for years I think you really don’t know what you are talking about with this derision of him and his opinions.

    No one who was familiar with his work would ever accuse him of what you did.

    Yup. And also, listing MacKenzie as someone closer to being a true scout is way off the mark. I love MacKenzie’s insight, but his insight isn’t really based on hockey knowledge but on good old reporting and having contacts and insider information. MacKenzie’s list isn’t trying to pick the best player, but rather trying to predict the draft order. His is essentially a mock draft, not a scouting list, and MacKenzie is absolutely selling a product, but his brand is getting as close to the actual draft order as possible. Pronman’s brand is trying to find the best player and being able to look back five years from now and see if he had them in the right order based on future performance.

  140. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Skinner’s 54 save performance was the 2nd most in Memorial Cup history.

    I’m not sure there’s a prospect at Junior-level with better arrows at this point in time. Maybe Yamo.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting that you mention Yamo as I think he’s one of only two players picked by the Oilers in the 2017 draft that don’t have their arrows up from their draft plus 1 year (relative to their draft position).

    Don’t get me wrong, Yamamoto is a great prospect and, while he did finish the year very strong (prior to being injured in the playoffs), for the year, I don’t think he had a great year.

    I would say Maksimov’s arrows are point way up relative to his draft position, similar to Skinner’s.

    Its too bad goalies are voodoo and we really don’t know if this performance means much in the long run – years away still.

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That;s big of you

    – One of Rickis mantra’s that I always liked was along the liines of “Why pay $6MM+ for 3rd/4th line offensive production for an “elite” scoring D?”

    Yup, and he’s right

  143. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The lower probability of rebound thing is huge.

    Iirc in one of Tyler’s pieces on 4F1D he has the “goals off rebounds” rate for point shots and shots from forwards and the disparity was significant.

    Makes intuitive sense too.

    Maybe Tyler was reading the thread as he posted this on twitter:

    The Oilers haven’t scored a rebound goal off a shot from a defenceman in a 4F1D in more than two seasons. Wow.

    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/998799639917678592?s=19

    That’s quite the stat.

    Klefbom was shooting a ton more this year, under direction of the coaches.

    You’d hope they actually tracked their own success and failures but I guess the answer is “nope”

  144. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Interesting that you mention Yamo as I think he’s one of only two players picked by the Oilers in the 2017 draft that don’t have their arrows up from their draft plus 1 year (relative to their draft position).

    Don’t get me wrong, Yamamoto is a great prospect and, while he did finish the year very strong (prior to being injured in the playoffs), for the year, I don’t think he had a great year.

    I would say Maksimov’s arrows are point way up relative to his draft position, similar to Skinner’s.

    Its too bad goalies are voodoo and we really don’t know if this performance means much in the long run – years away still.

    The healthy portion of Yamamoto’s season (post-WJC) was phenomenal, actually. He was on fire for a while there and was easily the best player in the WHL during that time. Also, during his 9 game cameo in Edmonton he posted some seriously crooked number, too bad nobody could cash when Kailer was on the ice.

    I would say there were good arrows this year despite the slow start (in WHL) and despite the injury.

  145. flea says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Maybe it’s because none of the oilers defencemen have an NHL caliber shot.Klefbom is maybe the closest, but he’s been hurt. Sekera – shinpad assassin. Nurse has a muffin and frequently misses the net. Benning misses the net a tonne too. Larsson is ok as well but often backs off the line to defend. Russel prob has the best of them all and that is a problem. I think Bear was a breath of fresh air in that respect, he could hit the net. It’s a hard thing to do well in any level of hockey, and I’m sure the speed of the NHL makes it near impossible for all but elite athletes.

    The oilers need a back end threat.

  146. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    flea:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Maybe it’s because none of the oilers defencemen have an NHL caliber shot.Klefbom is maybe the closest, but he’s been hurt. Sekera – shinpad assassin. Nurse has a muffin and frequently misses the net. Benning misses the net a tonne too. Larsson is ok as well but often backs off the line to defend. Russel prob has the best of them all and that is a problem. I think Bear was a breath of fresh air in that respect, he could hit the net. It’s a hard thing to do well in any level of hockey, and I’m sure the speed of the NHL makes it near impossible for all but elite athletes.

    The oilers need a back end threat.

    No.

    That’s not it at all.

    Its the opposite.

    I don’t want to post all the data again, but NHL teams that use a high proportion of point shots by their Dmen on a 4D 1F set up score way less than teams that have their fowards take most shots.

    MTL scored at almost TWICE the rate on their 5v4 when Petry took over the D duties after Weber was hurt.

    Twice as much.

    No Dman has scored nearly as much and as often as Weber in the last 10 years and his team was still almost TWICE as successful when they put a puck distributor in his spot with otherwise the same set up.

    You’re probably not into graphs, but these two explain it well: https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/998429783594713088

  147. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: The healthy portion of Yamamoto’s season (post-WJC) was phenomenal, actually. He was on fire for a while there and was easily the best player in the WHL during that time. Also, during his 9 game cameo in Edmonton he posted some seriously crooked number, too bad nobody could cash when Kailer was on the ice.

    I would say there were good arrows this year despite the slow start (in WHL) and despite the injury.

    Agreed. Yamamoto was outstanding during the period just after WJ’s through to the late injury. His underlying numbers in the NHL were so good it was almost statistically impossible for him to fail in scoring a few 5×5 points. I’d say that’s rare, but THE EXACT SAME THING happened to Leon in his draft +1 time in Edmonton.

  148. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Maybe Tyler was reading the thread as he posted this on twitter:
    The Oilers haven’t scored a rebound goal off a shot from a defenceman in a 4F1D in more than two seasons. Wow.
    https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/998799639917678592?s=19
    That’s quite the stat.
    Klefbom was shooting a ton more this year, under direction of the coaches.
    You’d hope they actually tracked their own success and failures but I guess the answer is “nope”

    Did you have a read on why Lucic went from being an effective powerplay presence in S1 to idle bystander in S2? Was it simply regression from a fluke year of productivity or had changed strategy undermined his role?

  149. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. Yamamoto was outstanding during the period just after WJ’s through to the late injury. His underlying numbers in the NHL were so good it was almost statistically impossible for him to fail in scoring a few 5×5 points. I’d say that’s rare, but THE EXACT SAME THING happened to Leon in his draft +1 time in Edmonton.

    Yak and Leon that year:

    181 minutes

    CF% 49.7
    SCF% 53.2
    HDSCF% 41.7
    GF% 16.7 (3-15)

    SH% 3.13
    SV% .857
    PDO 888

    Eakins created the somewhat mythical “soft comp 3rd line with young scorers” and they couldn’t hit water if they shot the puck at the ocean that year and of course the goalies couldn’t stop a beachball.

    What a bizarre year.

  150. Yeti says:

    Lowetide: I’d say that’s rare, but THE EXACT SAME THING happened to Leon in his draft +1 time in Edmonton.

    The good news is that, like Leon, a slight hiccup year might help keep the next contract number down.

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Did you have a read on why Lucic went from being an effective powerplay presence in S1 to idle bystander in S2? Was it simply regression from a fluke year of productivity or had changed strategy undermined his role?

    My theory on EDM PP demise is all centered around Leon’s usage.

    16/17 Leon was the bumper and got a ton of shots from that spot that resulted not only in goals for Drai, but goals for Looch and Letestu as well via the rebounds.

    Looch was really good at putting the garbage in the net and in 17/18 there wasn’t nearly as much garbage available or high quality garbage.

    Leon gets moved out of the bumper to the left flank and Klef gets told to hammer away at the puck more.

    Gimme a minutes and I’ll get the Leon’s shot locations from year to year….its really stark.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: The healthy portion of Yamamoto’s season (post-WJC) was phenomenal, actually. He was on fire for a while there and was easily the best player in the WHL during that time. Also, during his 9 game cameo in Edmonton he posted some seriously crooked number, too bad nobody could cash when Kailer was on the ice.

    I would say there were good arrows this year despite the slow start (in WHL) and despite the injury.

    I won’t disagree, however, in my opinion, overall, he performed as kind of expected – we (I) expected him to dominate offensively in the WHL and he ended up doing that (although was up and down, partially due to injury).

    I guess my point is he somewhat met expectations as opposed to exceeded them. Guys like Skinner, Maksimov, Kemp, Safin exceeded expectations for their draft positions, at least in my opinion.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: Did you have a read on why Lucic went from being an effective powerplay presence in S1 to idle bystander in S2? Was it simply regression from a fluke year of productivity or had changed strategy undermined his role?

    His career history indicates that his plus PP year was the outlier – he’s never been a productive PP guy.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Leon’s 5v4 shot locations in 16/17: https://ibb.co/jyJqgT

    Leon’s 5v4 shot locations in 17/18: https://ibb.co/fKKwMT

    They started the same last year as they finished in 16/17 and everything was the same in terms of shots, shot locations, expected goals…..except the had some tough puck luck and didn’t score as much.

    I think it was about 10 games in and they moved away from the set up, even though they were getting really high ends looks, but just not cashing.

    They became lost for the rest of the year trying to find set ups that would work and shot themselves in the foot imo

  155. Spooky Lynx says:

    Leafs PR
    @LeafsPR

    The Leafs announced today that the club and Assistant General Manager Mark Hunter have mutually agreed to part ways, effective immediately.

    7:10 AM · May 22, 2018
    ———————————

    I know the Oilers won’t be employing his services, but I’m damn jealous of the team who does.

  156. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: His career history indicates that his plus PP year was the outlier – he’s never been a productive PP guy.

    Usage matters a lot.

    He was never the net front guy for BOS, (that was Chara) , but a low left guy like Hall was for the Oilers.

    Hall never had much 5v4 success in EDM in the same spot as Lucic in BOS as well.

    This past year Hynes put Hall on the right half boards as the puck distributor (same spot at 97) and he also came off the wall to shoot a lot.

    Hall lead the NHL in 5v4 points this past season with a ridiculous 10.46 pts/60 after never cracking 6/60 in his career (including last year in NJD)

    Player P60
    TAYLOR HALL 10.46
    MORGAN RIELLY 9.16
    MITCHELL MARNER 8.99
    NIKITA KUCHEROV 8.21
    BLAKE WHEELER 7.89
    KYLE TURRIS 7.83
    PHIL KESSEL 7.71
    KYLE PALMIERI 7.69
    JOSH BAILEY 7.58

    Usage, team mates and opportunity matter a ton when it comes to 5v4 pts

  157. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: The healthy portion of Yamamoto’s season (post-WJC) was phenomenal, actually. He was on fire for a while there and was easily the best player in the WHL during that time. Also, during his 9 game cameo in Edmonton he posted some seriously crooked number, too bad nobody could cash when Kailer was on the ice.

    I would say there were good arrows this year despite the slow start (in WHL) and despite the injury.

    If one leaves out all the bad data, the remainder looks exceptional.

  158. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Intriguing – and thank you!

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: If one leaves out all the bad data, the remainder looks exceptional.

    A Godot post that I actually agree with.

    Yes, Yamamoto had an incredible run post-WJC until the end of the season but his playoffs was disappointing (he was playing hurt) and the 1st half of his season was disappointing.

    Overall, he produced at a high level and was among the league leaders when taking in to account games player. In my opinion, overall, although uneven, the year met expectations but did not exceed them.

    His arrows are fine in draft plus 1 but I wouldn’t put them as straight up like Maksimov or Skinner who clearly exceeded their 5th and 3rd round draft pedigrees.

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: If one leaves out all the bad data, the remainder looks exceptional.

    He spent a month or so in NHL, with phenomenal underlying numbers. He then was sent back to the dub and started slow, which is completely normal. Then he missed another month while away at the WJC, but when he came back he hit the ground running and played very well:

    January: 8, 7-12-19 (2.375 p/g)
    February: 12, 10-15-25 (2.083 p/g)
    March: 7, 3-6-9 (1.286 p/g)

    Can you tell where the injury occurred?

    I’m not making excuses, but even if you include the injury time and the poor stretch, his p/g was still up year-over-year. His +/- was also up significantly. Here’s the underlying stats from his time in Edmonton:

    Individual
    10.45 shots/60 (1st on Oilers regular season roster – 100 minutes minimum)
    18.42 iCF/60 (1st)
    13.44 iFF/60 (1st)
    13.44 iSCF/60 (1st)
    7.47 iHDCF/60 (1st)
    1.00 Rush Attempts/60 (2nd)
    2.99 Rebounds Created/60 (1st)

    On-ice
    77.17 CF/60 (1st)
    51.28 CA/60 (2nd)
    60.08 CF% (1st)
    50.78 FF/60 (4th)
    33.36 FA/60 (2nd)
    60.36 FF% (2nd)
    37.84 SF/60 (1st)
    27.38 SA/60 (2nd)
    58.02 SF% (2nd)
    1.00 GF/60 (27th – finishing for him AND HIS LINE-MATES was the problem in the 9 games, nothing else)
    1.99 GA/60 (T-3rd)
    38.33 SCF/60 (1st)
    25.39 SCA/60 (2nd)
    60.16 SCF% (2nd)
    18.42 HDCF/60 (1st)
    8.46 HDCA/60 (3rd)
    68.52 HDCF% (2nd)
    0.50 HDGF/60 (27th – see finishing note above)
    0.50 HDGA/60 (2nd)
    50 HDGF% (T-9th)
    2.63 On Ice SH% (2nd – see finishing note above)
    92.73 On Ice SV% (7th)
    0.954 PDO (25th)

  161. Rondo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    What I should’ve said Corey Pronman does his own work and marches to his own tune. He writes well and gives fresh views of players. However, he is not very good at it, looking at his results in the 1st rd.
    Can you imagine telling the Hawks to take Bokk at #8. He wouldn’t last long as an NHL scout unless Edmonton hired him.

  162. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    WhatI should’ve said Corey Pronman does his own work and marches to his own tune. He writes well and gives fresh views of players. However, he is not very good at it, looking at his results in the 1st rd.
    Can you imagine telling the Hawks to take Bokk at #8.He wouldn’t last long as an NHL scout unless Edmonton hired him.

    He’s not trying to predict the first round, he’s giving his opinion on the best players in the draft. It may not be your cup of tea, but if a scout believes Bokk is the No. 8 player in the draft he sure as hell better tell his employer.

  163. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Well, that’s what scouts do. Yes, I know that is what Pronman does. Just because you’re articulate it doesn’t make you right. I’m talking about Pronman.

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