A World Wide HooDoo (30 days)

We are exactly one month from the NHL Entry Draft, followed by free agency 2018. A trade window opens after the Stanley Cup Final is completed (latest ending June 13) and it could be reefer madness all summer long. The Oilers will be active (Peter Chiarelli is aggressive, in case you didn’t know) but the truth is the roster players from last year will be the key to next season. Regression isn’t always a bad word, kids.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your hot liquid. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

  • New Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board. It’s 24 hours since release, I’m not yet halfway home. Best in the business.
  • New Lowetide: Summer 2018 on a budget. Calling Warren Foegele!
  • New Lowetide: Is Stuart Skinner the real thing? Stopped 54 of 56 last night.
  • New Corey Pronman: Draft picks not on my board for 2018.
  • Jonathan Willis: A look at which Oilers could stay and which could go this summer.
  • Lowetide: Everything you ever wanted to know about Joel Persson but were afraid to ask.
  • Lowetide: Oilers summer to-do list short and sweet.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

50-MAN LIST

  • These are not lines.
  • There is a mountain of room on the 50-man list, 35 deep currently and with five or less additions among the restricted players.
  • I’ll guess Ryan Strome, Drake Caggiula, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning and Nick Ellis return.
  • If all five of those names do return, the Oilers weaknesses will be scoring wingers, two way wingers and puck movers. Maybe goaltending.

Matt Cane is one of the people out there who takes things we’re curious about and builds a model designed to answer those questions. This is the good stuff. I spent some time (lots of time) with this model yesterday and it fascinates me in most every case that could involve the Oilers.

Free Agent List

I have a free-agent list ready and kept wondering about the best way to publish it. Thanks to Matt Cane, I can run it based on projected cap hit next season. Here goes.

  1. LC John Tavares, $10.7 million. Not possible, but what an incredible dream. I’m not certain this number gets him, to be honest. Vegas has a mountain of money, might use it.
  2. RD John Carlson, $8.6 million. Edmonton could do this, but it would involve trading Leon Draisaitl or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins plus to make room.
  3. LC Paul Stastny, $5.4 million. He would be a terrific addition, playing alongside Leon on the No. 2 line. Just out of reach but if the club could find a way to offload a $4 million player this would be an option.
  4. L James vanRiemsdyk, $5.3 million. He’s my top free-agent option at the top end, for me everyone here and below on this list is affordable on some level. Note: That does not mean I endorse signing any player to a $5 million deal. It’s a big money contract, and as you see above money is tight. It would involve trading a defenseman.
  5. L James Neal, $4.3 million. He can play either wing and if I had to guess this player would be Edmonton’s target during free agency.
  6. R Thomas Vanek, $2.86 million. I’d rather sign him to a bigger nut for one year than long term, but Cane’s numbers suggest both are possible. Oilers should target him for sure.
  7. RC Derek Ryan, $2.4 million. I like him a lot but that’s too much money for the No. 4 center. Jujhar Khaira looks like he may be able to take on the role so that’s an option I would pass on at this number.
  8. RC Riley Nash, $2.275 million. Righty center had a strong season and would be a nice replacement for Mark Letestu. I don’t like the price but he’s in the conversation.
  9. LC Val Filppula, $2.2 million. This is a player I’ve always liked and his ability to play a two-way game (and more than one position) make him an attractive (if expensive for his role) option.
  10. RC Kyle Brodziak, $1.5 million. I wonder if he’s interested in coming home for a couple of seasons. Scored well this past season, wasn’t as effective in possession (although zone starts in his own end were a factor).
  11. L Scottie Upshall, $1.1 million. Same story as Brodziak, I think either man is a candidate to be signed by Edmonton.
  12. LC Derek Grant, $1.0 million. Minor league journeyman caught on with Anaheim and delivered an excellent season, including a superior faceoff percentage. I think he stays on the coast but he’s an interesting option.

PROJECTED OILERS ROSTER 2018-19

  • I understand some of these numbers are eye popping, but Cane is using the past to predict the future. That’s always a good idea. We’ll review these numbers at summer’s end to see how they shine.
  • The Nurse deal got lots of attention but for a long-term deal it seems to be in the range. Cane estimated four years, but if this contract gets signed for seven years I don’t know that people will think it crazy. Whether Edmonton should make that offer is another conversation. I would bridge.
  • The Benning number seems high, the Strome number solid.
  • I chose Vanek, Schaller, Chiasson and Dillon Simpson as my free agent additions.
  • Right wing has cover for young Jesse Puljujarvi but that also means the team should be able to shoot the moon and try him on the big line. Let him wheel, see what he can do. If he’s struggling after 20 games, Vanek is there for cover. In the meantime, Leon gets a nice veteran to play on his line.
  • The skill lines can be moved about but I wanted to keep Lucic away from Puljujarvi. They don’t mix.
  • I moved Zack Kassian to add some room, it might come to that this summer.

SHOOT THE MOON, 2012

The 2012 draft will be remembered for the poor return on the No. 1 overall selection, but the Oilers drafted players who had enough offense (with one exception). As you read these words from six years ago, have a look at the equivalencies. Nail Yakupov didn’t impact the NHL, but math adored him. You’ll notice the picks I was favoring over the No. 32 selection by Edmonton didn’t exactly tear up the blacktop.

  • #1 overall: R Nail Yakupov. Ridiculous talent combined with swagger and attitude. Yakupov has great personality and should give Oiler fans a lot to cheer for on and off the ice. Perhaps this young Russian can win the Calder trophy for a franchise that still hasn’t been honored with it. NHLE 82, 18-22-40.
  • #32 overall: L Mitchell Moroz. Coke Machine selection that takes Oiler fans back to the days of Kevin Prendergast, Moroz was taken when their was more skill on the board. The pick was disappointing. The players we talked about this morning were available at that number. My picks were Pontus Aberg, Dalton Thrower and Matt Finn–you may have had other names. NHLE 82, 6-3-9.
  • #63 overall:F Jujhar Khaira. Another big forward (6.03, 195) with room to grow, he played in the BCJHL and Red Line suggests he was underscouted. Quoting RLR: this kid is big, mean, aggressive, nasty, and guess what, he can score too. I was initially unimpressed with the Khaira pick but after reading more he’s at least worthy of being “in the range” of his selection. The Oilers clearly spent the day drafting for need and I think this player gives them their best chance of getting that big forward who can play with real skill. NHLE 82, 6-11-17.
  • #91 overall: L Daniil Zharkov. The second most famous prospect Edmonton drafted this weekend, Zharkov is also Russian and another strong personality. At 6.03, 200 he fits the Coke Machine description (or will) but has enough skill to be considered a good hockey player. NHLE 82, 11-7-18.
  • #93 overall: D Erik Gustafsson. Very interesting player, he’s 20 years old and one imagines the Oilers might bring him over right away for OKC. Gustafsson’s size (6.0, 176) runs out of time with the Coke Machine theme of this season’s draft. NHLE 82, 5-6-11.
  • #123 overall: D Joey Laleggia. This has the best chance to be a depth gem along the lines of Rieder. Corey Pronman’s take: He’s a good skater with a great offensive mind who would be a nice shot in the dark pick in the mid-rounds due to his notable offensive upside. He flashes high-end hockey sense with his quick game processing and he’s really effective moving the puck out of his own end and controlling the blue line on the power play. NHLE 82, 9-21-30.
  • #153 overall: R John McCarron. The third straight 1992-born player, he’s a huge winger (6.03, 215) with plenty of toughness and a mean streak. McCarron fits the Coke Machine label perfectly. NHLE 82, 6-12-18.

I wrote about him the other day (link above) and it’s basically impossible to know if this is a turn north or a hot streak. That said, we’re 53 games (regular season, playoffs, Memorial Cup) since the deal and he’s been fire in Swift Current. The next question for Skinner, now that he is signed, is where do you play him next season? WHL, ECHL, AHL?

LOU IN BROOKLYN

Lou Lamoriello is the ultimate example of what happens when things are “grandfathered” and one guy stays too long at the fair. As was the case with Sam Pollock, I cannot argue the wisdom of the man, only that Lou’s trump cards should not be available to him. It makes the league look uneven, unfair. Example: The NHL had this silly whack-a-mole rule that awarded draft picks to an organization losing a coach or an executive. The rule was in place for about 10 minutes, but the Edmonton Oilers got tripped up twice by the blasted thing. If such a thing had happened to a Lou Lamoriello team, or a Sam Pollock team, I would bet my bottom dollar the rule would have been eased. Seriously. Remember the “Ilya Kovalchuk lose your draft pick” penalty? Yeah. The NHL rules are written in stone for some, invisible ink for others. Same as it ever was. Lou has apparently been talking to John Tavares while (as far as we know) still being employed by the Toronto Maple Leafs. If I’m the Leafs, not happy. Mark Hunter quit, what are the odds he’ll be in Brooklyn by September 1? Bah. And what pray tell comes of Garth Snow?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy, fun show with spectacular guests trying to make sense of long run on sentences that serve as questions! Such fun! 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. What a run for Winnipeg, VGK the story of the century, big doings in Louville.
  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. What is the outer marker for the Oilers in free agency? Neal? Vanek?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Vegas, Caps-Lightning, and what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks is going on in Toronto with the Leafs?
  • Marshall Ferguson, Ti-Cats PBP for TSN1150 Hamilton. Johnny Football, baby!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

164 Responses to "A World Wide HooDoo (30 days)"

  1. OilSafety says:

    Who do we see filling the PK roles this coming season? After losing Lander, Pouliot, etc. it was a glaring hole last year.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Your lines are awful LT

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OilSafety:
    Who do we see filling the PK roles this coming season? After losing Lander, Pouliot, etc. it was a glaring hole last year.

    I don’t want any failed former Oilers back. I want them to get the guys that can actually contribute in the bottom 6 as is needed, be it defensive cover or complimentary scoring.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Your lines are awful LT

    Not as bad as the coming shitty mock draft.

  5. zatch says:

    On Lou: The New York Post is suggesting he might bring Jacques’ Lemaire and Caron in.

    At the risk of devolving this into an age argument, I don’t get Lou. He left Jersey in shambles and you’ll have a hard time selling me that Dubas wasn’t the bright light in the room in Toronto.

    At his age, I feel like you should be more a giver of advice or caution than the #1A1. While it’s true a younger person won’t have the range of experience as an elder, they still have some, and the older man’s is less valuable as time inevitably changes how things are done (same as it ever was).

    Lou seems far too confident to me for a man who hasn’t been impressive lately, and who still holds on to such truly idiotic conceits like shaving facial hair matter. Giving him the reins, as it appears is the case, seems foolish. We’ll see, I guess.

  6. Woogie63 says:

    I don’t see PC being aggressive this summer.

    His agenda

    Caggiula, Benning, Strome signed to show me contracts
    Nurse around $4.0 for as long in term as that gets you.
    Decide on Sekera’s health… he needs a back up plan.
    August signed vet winger for $1M
    Winning roster until February, then insert Benson, Yamamoto, Marody/Gambardella
    Great coaches in NHL and AHL

  7. Jaxon says:

    Why isn’t Johnny Gruden ranked higher?

    I’ve added USHL players (for past 3 seaons) to my Age and Era Adjusted Expected 5-on-5 Primary Points at Top 6 Median TOI for Junior Forwards Since 2005 Entry Draft. I’ve drawn 13.73 5-on-5 TOI/GP as a line in the sand that eliminates a lot of busts and players who have struggled with consistency as NHLers. There are still a few misses on this list but a lot of hits and some who may still make it. Glennie and Watson are the only absolute busts here and I’ve recently read about Glennie’s lifestyle issues and physical fitness that affected his game. Maybe Spencer Watson was zoomed by Bennett, although Bennett hasn’t met expectations either. The players who jump out at me the most in this year’s draft are Adam Mascherin’s 29 and Johnny Gruden’s 28.

    YEAR Name League “AGE & ERA ADJ
    NHLE 5-on-5 P1
    @TOP6TOI”
    2005 Sidney Crosby QMJHL 48.18
    2015 Connor McDavid OHL 44.02
    2018 Andrei Svechnikov OHL 38.80
    2015 Mitchell Marner OHL 37.49
    2015 Dylan Strome OHL 36.80
    2014 Robby Fabbri OHL 33.93
    2007 Patrick Kane OHL 32.41
    2013 Nathan MacKinnon QMJHL 30.49
    2014 Sam Bennett OHL 30.15
    2014 Spencer Watson OHL 30.10
    2010 Taylor Hall OHL 29.83
    2013 Nicolas Petan WHL 29.48
    2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois QMJHL 29.43
    2016 Alex DeBrincat OHL 29.20
    2016 Cameron Morrison USHL 29.13
    2016 Adam Mascherin OHL 29.04
    2008 Steven Stamkos OHL 28.87
    2009 Scott Glennie WHL 28.83
    2018 Oliver Wahlstrom USHL 28.79
    2013 Jonathan Drouin QMJHL 28.62
    2010 Tyler Seguin OHL 28.53
    2011 Ryan Strome OHL 28.11
    2006 Chris Stewart OHL 28.11
    2009 Evander Kane WHL 28.10
    2005 Bobby Ryan OHL 28.02
    2017 Owen Tippett OHL 27.81
    2018 Jonathan Gruden USHL 27.62
    2017 Nick Suzuki OHL 26.98
    2009 John Tavares OHL 26.74
    2010 Tyler Toffoli OHL 26.72
    2014 Nick Ritchie OHL 26.42
    2014 Nikolaj Ehlers QMJHL 26.06
    2008 Tyler Ennis WHL 26.04
    2014 Leon Draisaitl WHL 25.93

    Svechnikov is super elite and in any other year (without Dahlin) he would be talked about as generational.

    Also of note is Avalanche’s Cam Morrison. He’s playing NCAA and is not yet signed. Does he go back into the draft if not signed by June 1st? Or is there a different rule for NCAA players? I think Mascherin could be a relatively cheap addition with huge upside. I haven’t seen Gruden very high on anyone’s rankings (81 on Dobber, 83 on Lowetide, 97 On hockey Draft Central, 100 on The Hockey Writers, 94 on Draftsite). By these stats I’m not sure why.

    I’ve also discovered some other interesting stats on Dobber re: Gruden and his percentage of the team’s offense, which is impressive on a team with Wahlstrom, J Hughes, Farabee. He seems to be driving the offense on the USA team.

    https://dobberprospects.com/analytics-and-the-draft/

  8. zatch says:

    Jaxon,

    If Svechnikov were actually Generational, we wouldn’t be talking Dahlin over him.
    Pronman is of the opinion that his physicality lets him put up better numbers than will reflect at the NHL level.

    We’ve devalued just about every other term, can we please not do the same for Generational?

  9. judgedrude says:

    I’m confused…May has 31 days.

  10. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Because it’s not all about the numbers.

  11. Rafa Nadal says:

    I know it’s pretty much set in stone, but why is the organization bringing Caggiula back? I don’t think he’s an NHL player. His advanced stats and point production are both quite poor. Is this a case of Chiarelli being loyal because a player chose Edmonton out of college? That’s simply not a good enough reason.

  12. MattyIce says:

    LT when is the mockdraft? I want Farabee

  13. Yeti says:

    judgedrude: I’m confused…May has 31 days.

    You numbers guys should just watch the damned games.

  14. Lowetide says:

    judgedrude:
    I’m confused…May has 31 days.

    30 days Canadian.

  15. Jaxon says:

    zatch:
    Jaxon,

    If Svechnikov were actually Generational, we wouldn’t be talking Dahlin over him.
    Pronman is of the opinion that his physicality lets him put up better numbers than will reflect at the NHL level.

    We’ve devalued just about every other term, can we please not do the same for Generational?

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Because it’s not all about the numbers.

    I agree that it’s not all about the numbers, because all the eye test, visual verbal about Svechnikov also indicate he is a great player. 2-way, High IQ, very physical, very fast skater, hard working, elite skills, pure sniper who can also set up teammates, he kills penatlies. I’ve never seen a negative thing written about him. The you add the stats where he has been on par or outscored McDavid and Crosby even when adjusted to league, age and era. He outscored both in goals at 5-on-5. And he also outscored them in Primary points after returning from injury in December. You find me a negative coment and I’ll adjust my thinking. Pronman’s isn’t really a negative comment, but rather a positive somehow turned into a negative. His physicality won’t translate? So if he was less physical or smaller he’d have a better chance of bringing his offence with him? I don’t quite buy it with all the other tools he has. Watch a highlight reel from him and then pick your jaw up off the floor. I wonder if Ovechkin’s physicality as a junior age player was seen as a negative somehow. I’m not trying to de-value generational, I’m just wondering why it’s not aplpying here when eye and stats seem to line up. Who is generational? Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, McDavid, Ovechkin, Orr, Lidstrom? Who is near-generational? Messier, Matthews, Laine, Eichel, Doughty, Lidstrom, Forsberg, Lindros, Potvin, Bossy, Kalrsson? Now, if you outscore two of the generational players at the same age and are a fast, physical player with elite puck skills and high hockey IQ, what do you have to do to be considered in their range?

    EDIT: PS Haha, I now wish I didn’t mention Svechnikov in what was a bit of a throw away line in my comment. didn’t want it to be the focus of the comment. I was more intrigued with Gruden. Will he be a great pick at #40? #71?

  16. ArmchairGM says:

    3. LC Paul Stastny, $5.4 million. He would be a terrific addition, playing alongside Leon on the No. 2 line. Just out of reach but if the club could find a way to offload a $4 million player *coughrussellcough* this would be an option.

    FTFY.

  17. ArmchairGM says:

    13. Antoine Vermette.

    What do you think about this guy for 4C and D-zone faceoffs?

  18. OilSafety says:

    ArmchairGM:
    3. LC Paul Stastny, $5.4 million. He would be a terrific addition, playing alongside Leon on the No. 2 line. Just out of reach but if the club could find a way to offload a $4 million player *coughrussellcough* this would be an option.

    FTFY.

    Well done!

  19. zatch says:

    Jaxon,

    To quote Pronman directly: “Svechnikov’s stats are actually off the charts good and are that of a first overall pick, but I’m skeptical that is reflective of his true talent level, but rather an indicator of how he physically overpowers his competition at the junior level at times.” He describes more about how he is able to bulldoze his way through much of the competition. This will be mitigated at the NHL level.

    You’re very enthusiastic, but the idea that his Jr Boxcars secretly show he’s a top (or near) 100 calibre player in history is off base. I do not believe he is a generational talent. I do not believe he is a NEAR generational talent. He might be franchise talent, and looks like he will be an elite talent.
    The idea that nearly everyone but you has whiffed on a player of the level you are insisting is too much.

  20. judgedrude says:

    Lowetide,

    If it is worldwide…maybe you should use SI standard units.

    Seeing the Hoodoo, I was hoping that the Gurus could be building A Castle in the Air for some Good Times.

    We shall see.

  21. Seismic Source says:

    That list is great. Zucker and Dumba will be breaking the bank by the looks of it.

  22. Wilde says:

    Some goal-share and point-rate charts for Bakersfield this past season I found useful:

    https://twitter.com/CudmoreColin/status/986671822992097280

  23. Rondo says:

    With all the people who are enamored with advance stats why have you been so wrong picking winners regarding teams and players? I would think advanced stats should give you an advantage in betting.

  24. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Matheson, Florida is the most direct comparable.Ristolainen is a peer with better offense.He is signing a couple of years after the latter, and one year after the former, which says $5 million and a bit over 8 years is the ballpark figure.

    Matheson? Seriously? Firstly he’s not even remotely close to the “most direct comparable”; secondly his contract is clearly an outlier. Nobody else in the world would have signed a 17-point, 24-year-old rookie to that contract. Not even Chia.

  25. hunter1909 says:

    Golden Knights!

    Golden Knights!

    Golden Knights!

    : p

  26. hunter1909 says:

    Does anyone else think Lowe+MacT would be happy to trade McDavid for the current Vegas team, entering a finals series?

    “Just think Kev! Another crack at the cup!”

  27. JimmyV1965 says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    I know it’s pretty much set in stone, but why is the organization bringing Caggiula back? I don’t think he’s an NHL player. His advanced stats and point production are both quite poor. Is this a case of Chiarelli being loyal because a player chose Edmonton out of college? That’s simply not a good enough reason.

    I don’t get the hate for the Drake. Sure he was bad defensively last year, but he scored 13 goals. I think it’s madness to write off a player with 127 games of experience. Good defence can be taught. He just needs to be put in a position to succeed. Why would you walk away from a 13 goal scorer who will basically get league minimum?

    I’ve said it before. If we walk away from the Drake and he scores 15 goals somewhere else while playing better defence, the howls of outrage on this site will be deafening.

  28. DBO says:

    Interesting list.

    I would target Tobias Reider in a deal for picks from LA. Be a solid two way around 2 million for 2 or 3 years.

    May also look at Matt Read. Not sure of his fancy stats, but could be a low cost $1 million vet who can do a few things and skate enough to keep up.

    On D, keep powder dry until next year whem u can move either Russell or Sekera. A healthy d corps woukd solve a bunch of problems. And with the kids in the AHL like Bear and Jones marinating, it could be an internal solution by mid season. Not worth asset cost to deal for a dman in summer.

  29. Pink Socks says:

    ArmchairGM:
    13. Antoine Vermette.

    What do you think about this guy for 4C and D-zone faceoffs?

    Great except that the refs already hate us.

  30. Pink Socks says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t get the hate for the Drake. Sure he was bad defensively last year, but he scored 13 goals. I think it’s madness to write off a player with 127 games of experience. Good defence can be taught. He just needs to be put in a position to succeed. Why would you walk away from a 13 goal scorer who will basically get league minimum?

    I’ve said it before. If we walk away from the Drake and he scores 15 goals somewhere else while playing better defence, the howls of outrage on this site will be deafening.

    I agree. He is infuriating to watch and I am not a fan, but it makes zero sense to just let him walk. Get him signed to a cheap deal and if he scores 13 again next year and isn’t on the PK, we’re happy.

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    3. LC Paul Stastny, $5.4 million. He would be a terrific addition, playing alongside Leon on the No. 2 line. Just out of reach but if the club could find a way to offload a $4 million player *coughrussellcough* this would be an option.

    FTFY.

    No offence, but these are exactly the signings that have killed the Oilers in the past. The guy is 32 and he’ll get min $5 mill until he’s 37. He gets hurt every year. No thanks.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    hunter1909:
    Does anyone else think Lowe+MacT would be happy to trade McDavid for the currentVegas team, entering a finals series?

    “Just think Kev! Another crack at the cup!”

    Why don’t we just trade for their coaches instead?

  33. zatch says:

    Pink Socks,

    He’s (about to turn) 24, so he’s pretty close to his peak. He could get better at defense, but he might not. I think he’s a 4th/3rd line tweener. 13 goals was decent, but he had better linemates than he deserved.

    I don’t see the need to ditch him, but play him in a more logical spot and for the love of god don’t pay him too much.

  34. Pink Socks says:

    Regarding Lou, very interesting the Leafs (spits) decided to let him go prior to getting their big 3 signed. It shows a tremendous amount of confidence is Dubas. He has to sign Nylander who Matt Cane says is 5x$7m. And he can sign Marner and Matthews this summer to their big extensions. The summer signings of these 3 will really show how poor PC is at the negotiation part of his job… or that Leon’s deal is a good one.

  35. Pink Socks says:

    zatch,

    100%. He is a 4LW in my opinion who can slot up if needed, and should never be allowed to PK. If he scores 13 again for ~$1m it’s a good deal.

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: No offence, but these are exactly the signings that have killed the Oilers in the past. The guy is 32 and he’ll get min $5 mill until he’s 37.He gets hurt every year. No thanks.

    I’m not advocating signing Stastny to a 5-year contract – LT’s “find a way to offload a $4 million player” made me lol, that’s all.

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    Rondo:
    With all the people who are enamored with advance stats why have you been so wrong picking winners regarding teams and players?I would think advanced stats should give you an advantage in betting.

    Hockey might be the last sport I bet on. Way too much randomness.

  38. Jaxon says:

    zatch:
    Jaxon,

    To quote Pronman directly: “Svechnikov’s stats are actually off the charts good and are that of a first overall pick, but I’m skeptical that is reflective of his true talent level, but rather an indicator of how he physically overpowers his competition at the junior level at times.” He describes more about how he is able to bulldoze his way through much of the competition. This will be mitigated at the NHL level.

    You’re very enthusiastic, but the idea that his Jr Boxcars secretly show he’s a top (or near) 100 calibre player in history is off base. I do not believe he is a generational talent. I do not believe he is a NEAR generational talent. He might be franchise talent, and looks like he will be an elite talent.
    The idea that nearly everyone but you has whiffed on a player of the level you are insisting is too much.

    I’m a big Pronman fan so I’m sure he has a point, but it is speculation that his numbers are due in part to size against juniors. But you could turn that same point into a positive that he is more NHL ready and will not be slowed down by the physicality of the NHL. I’m not completely alone and Steve Kournianos (Sporting News, The Draft Analyst) lays out a pretty compelling case for him being 1st overall and for talking about him in comparison to Crosby, McDavid, Tavares, Stamkos, Hall, P Kane, and MacKinnon as he outproduced them all in junior.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/nhl-draft-2018-rasmus-dahlin-andrei-svechnikov-prospect-rankings-best-players-grades/14635i78dvl7512pezqzuayef0

    EDIT: JOHNNY GRUDEN!!!!!!!

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not advocating signing Stastny to a 5-year contract – LT’s “find a way to offload a $4 million player” made me lol, that’s all.

    Sorry about that.

  40. Wilde says:

    johnny gruden

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    zatch:

    At his age, I feel like you should be more a giver of advice or caution than the #1A1. While it’s true a younger person won’t have the range of experience as an elder, they still have some, and the older man’s is less valuable as time inevitably changes how things are done (same as it ever was).

    Imagine if this statement was made about a woman or a person of colour?

    As a person ages, you become more and more aware of this mentality (i.e. ageism) and you realize that it’s as omnipresent and offensive as racism and sexism. Maybe ageism will get its own #MeToo movement one day?

    Broad brush stereotyping of any group of people is ignorant: same as it ever was.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    judgedrude:
    Lowetide,

    If it is worldwide…maybe you should use SI standard units.

    Seeing the Hoodoo, I was hoping that the Gurus could be building A Castle in the Air for some Good Times.

    We shall see.

    There´s nothing new beneath the sun
    We´ve butchered every sacred cow
    Don´t tell me about all the things you might have done
    Just tell me what are you doing now – right now.
    Come anytime

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Seismic Source:
    That list is great. Zucker and Dumba will be breaking the bank by the looks of it.

    Neideritter is supposedly available to clear some space. I’d love him on EDM but no room with Looch and Russell.

    Ennis is available, but they’d have to hold some cap back.

    I wonder if EDM looks at Ennis if MIN held 2.3 of his 4.6? You’d get him for a song.

    Hasn’t been good for a few years, but players in the UFA year tend to play better as its for another contract.

    Addendum: he can play either wing too

  44. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks: Imagine if this statement was made about a woman or a person of colour?

    As a person ages, you become more and more aware of this mentality (i.e. ageism) and you realize that it’s as omnipresent and offensive as racism and sexism. Maybe ageism will get its own #MeToo movement one day?

    Broad brush stereotyping of any group of people is ignorant: same as it ever was.

    ????????????????????????????????????????????

  45. russ99 says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t get the hate for the Drake. Sure he was bad defensively last year, but he scored 13 goals. I think it’s madness to write off a player with 127 games of experience. Good defence can be taught. He just needs to be put in a position to succeed. Why would you walk away from a 13 goal scorer who will basically get league minimum?

    I’ve said it before. If we walk away from the Drake and he scores 15 goals somewhere else while playing better defence, the howls of outrage on this site will be deafening.

    We have two years of NHL level results to use to make that decision. Frankly, I don’t see why we’d pay Strome and Caggiula to come back on one-way deals when we can use that cap to sign FAs who can do more for less salary.

    I can see bringing back Benning as a cheap replacement level player for the right side, but Strome and Caggiula just don’t bring enough to justify the salary increases.

    The 1994’s didn’t live up to their potential nor did they have the capacity to handle the roles they were given last year. Why should we assume they can in the coming year? Why would we waste top 6 minutes on players in the hopes they can turn things around? Definition of insanity…

  46. bendelson says:

    judgedrude,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    A couple of Stoneage Romeos on the blog today…

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side: ????????????????????????????????????????????

    The poster is playing a familiar song called, ‘old people should probably be put out to pasture because they’re all incapable of staying abreast of current trends in their profession.’ It’s a tired refrain.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    judgedrude,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    A couple of Stoneage Romeos on the blog today…

    Well done

  49. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks: The poster is playing a familiar song called, ‘old people should probably be put out to pasture because they’re all incapable of staying abreast of current trends in their profession.’ It’s a tired refrain.

    But some people don’t age well at all and start losing their cognitive abilities and can’t perform their jobs as well as they used to or need to.

    I understand that not all old people are like this, so I get what you mean in that regard, but it happens.

    Not sure what that has to do with people of colour or women, really or how they’re even comparable.

    It’s incredibly rare I find that an old person has the same cognitive abilities as they did when they were in their 20s or 30s. And lets face it, every organization faces situations where they have older employees who don’t perform well in their job, but they can’t be let go, so they stay in the position and people tip toe around them, or the older person gets moved to a different position that can do less damage. Saying “all old people need to go” is wrong, but they’re also not wrong in saying some old people need to go because they can’t or won’t change.

  50. Oilman99 says:

    Warning!! Do not sign Riley Nash at an overinflated price. The guy had a career year, there is no guarantee he will score this many goals again ever. Career years in a ufa year are a killer.

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rondo:
    With all the people who are enamored with advance stats why have you been so wrong picking winners regarding teams and players?I would think advanced stats should give you an advantage in betting.

    With all the people who hate advanced stats and watch hockey why have you been so wrong picking winners regarding teams and players?

    I would think that watching all that hockey should give you an advantage in betting.

    Also,

    Over the last 103 playoff series:

    Teams with the better shot metrics during the season won 57% of the time.

    Teams with the better all situations SV% for their starter was won 63% of the time.

    My own win rate is 58% over the last 6 years.

    Got killed last year after a very nice 4 year run.

    Went 6-2 in the first round this year. 2-2 in second round and so far 0-1 in third (have TBY)

    Also,

    Because of NSH awesome shot metrics last year I made a $100 bet in January at 25-1 that they’d win the Western Conference. (they were a playoff bubble team at the time)

    Tell me again how fancy stats have failed me.

  52. Rafa Nadal says:

    Drake scored 13 goals, sure – but he played with linemates that dragged him upwards. I’m 90% sure his GF% numbers are below 50%, largely because of his poor defence. There must be better options available in free agency, preferably someone who can PK and has a two way game.

  53. Gret99zky says:

    Estimated salary for Darnell Nurse: previously $3.3M now $4.95M. Progress. #reality

  54. Pink Socks says:

    Peter Chiarelli

    @FakeOilersGM
    24m24 minutes ago
    More
    New PLAN: Daryl Katz will relocate the Oilers to Seattle and Edmonton will get the new expansion team.

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Neideritter is supposedly available to clear some space.I’d love him on EDM but no room with Looch and Russell.

    Ennis is available, but they’d have to hold some cap back.

    I wonder if EDM looks at Ennis if MIN held 2.3 of his 4.6?You’d get him for a song.

    Hasn’t been good for a few years, but players in the UFA year tend to play better as its for another contract.

    Addendum: he can play either wing too

    Nino as Leon’s shooter? Yes, please! Would #10 and Safin get it done?

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks: I agree.He is infuriating to watch and I am not a fan, but it makes zero sense to just let him walk.Get him signed to a cheap deal and if he scores 13 again next year and isn’t on the PK, we’re happy.

    Bottom 10 Oilers in Relative Team Mate GF% last two years combined:

    MATT.HENDRICKS -3.25
    JUJHAR.KHAIRA -4.26
    ANDREJ.SEKERA -4.31
    ERIC.GRYBA -5.53
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON -5.91
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA -7.11
    BENOIT.POULIOT -7.19
    MARK.LETESTU -7.56
    ETHAN.BEAR -20.42
    KAILER.YAMAMOTO -30.83

    Bear and Yamamoto get a walk for being raw rookies

    Sekera gets a walk for playing on one leg last year (he was positive the year previous)

    Not sure Drake is a NHLer.

    Makes me think hard about Khaira too

  57. Biggus Dickus says:

    Pink Socks:
    Peter Chiarelli

    @FakeOilersGM24m24 minutes ago
    More
    New PLAN: Daryl Katz will relocate the Oilers to Seattle and Edmonton will get the new expansion team.

    If WHA expansion rules apply and I can keep 1 player, I would swap places with Seattle.

    Save McDavid, I would trade this team for almost any other in the league.

  58. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Nino as Leon’s shooter? Yes, please! Would #10 and Safin get it done?

    Not sure if you need to add to #10.

    If they can squeeze his $5.25MM salary in I’d do #10.

  59. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: With all the people who hate advanced stats and watch hockey why have you been so wrong picking winners regarding teams and players?

    I would think that watching all that hockey should give you an advantage in betting.

    Also,

    Over the last 103 playoff series:

    Teams with the better shot metrics during the season won 57% of the time.

    Teams with the better all situations SV% for their starter was won 63% of the time.

    My own win rate is 58% over the last 6 years.

    Got killed last year after a very nice 4 year run.

    Went 6-2 in the first round this year. 2-2 in second round and so far 0-1 in third (have TBY)

    Also,

    Because of NSH awesome shot metrics last year I made a $100 bet in January at 25-1 that they’d win the Western Conference. (they were a playoff bubble team at the time)

    Tell me again how fancy stats have failed me.

    You keep losing on Vegas .. Believe WOODGUY, Believe !!!

  60. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Bottom 10 Oilers in Relative Team Mate GF% last two years combined:

    MATT.HENDRICKS-3.25
    JUJHAR.KHAIRA-4.26
    ANDREJ.SEKERA-4.31
    ERIC.GRYBA-5.53
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON-5.91
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA-7.11
    BENOIT.POULIOT-7.19
    MARK.LETESTU-7.56
    ETHAN.BEAR-20.42
    KAILER.YAMAMOTO-30.83

    Bear and Yamamoto get a walk for being raw rookies

    Sekera gets a walk for playing on one leg last year (he was positive the year previous)

    Not sure Drake is a NHLer.

    Makes me think hard about Khaira too

    Is Davidson that low owing – in part – to being played as RHD? I ask because I had him mentally pegged as more effective than those stats indicate.

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side: But some people don’t age well at all and start losing their cognitive abilities and can’t perform their jobs as well as they used to or need to.

    I understand that not all old people are like this, so I get what you mean in that regard, but it happens.

    Not sure what that has to do with people of colour or women, really or how they’re even comparable.

    It’s incredibly rare I find that an old person has the same cognitive abilities as they did when they were in their 20s or 30s.And lets face it, every organization faces situations where they have older employees who don’t perform well in their job, but they can’t be let go, so they stay in the position and people tip toe around them, or the older person gets moved to a different position that can do less damage.Saying “all old people need to go” is wrong, but they’re also not wrong in saying some old people need to go because they can’t or won’t change.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/debra-caruso/age-and-cognitive-ability_b_3095305.html

    This is the problem with stereotyping. It rarely stays abreast of current information that dispels the myths.

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: You keep losing on Vegas ..Believe WOODGUY, Believe !!!

    The one team where I didn’t pick the better goalie 3 TIMES!!!

    WSH is also killing me after I bet on them year after year and refused to this year.

    Good times.

  63. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99: We have two years of NHL level results to use to make that decision. Frankly, I don’t see why we’d pay Strome and Caggiula to come back on one-way deals when we can use that cap to sign FAs who can do more for less salary.

    I can see bringing back Benning as a cheap replacement level player for the right side, but Strome and Caggiula just don’t bring enough to justify the salary increases.

    The 1994’s didn’t live up to their potential nor did they have the capacity to handle the roles they were given last year. Why should we assume they can in the coming year? Why would we waste top 6 minutes on players in the hopes they can turn things around? Definition of insanity…

    The Drake was fourth on the team in goals. Again, his defence sucked. And again, it doesn’t make sense to write him off. If he doesn’t learn to play defence and he drags down his teammates, you put him on waivers. Virtually all of his salary can be buried in the minors. It absolutely doesn’t make sense to let him walk.

    In regards to Strome, what C are you signing to replace him at $3 mill?

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Is Davidson that low owing – in part – to being played as RHD? I ask because I had him mentally pegged as more effective than those stats indicate.

    Davidson’s data includes time in MTL and NYI where he did much worse than EDM.

    I should have excluded him (same with Pouliot)

    Davidson with:
    EDM GF% 46
    NYI GF% 40
    MTL GF%32

  65. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The one team where I didn’t pick the better goalie 3 TIMES!!!

    WSH is also killing me after I bet on them year after year and refused to this year.

    Good times.

    which team had best SV% in all situations coming into playoffs?

  66. bendelson says:

    ArmchairGM: Nino as Leon’s shooter? Yes, please! Would #10 and Safin get it done?

    Woodguy v2.0: Not sure if you need to add to #10.

    If they can squeeze his $5.25MM salary in I’d do #10.

    I don’t know if you recall a conversation we had regarding Nino at this time last year WG…
    We both agreed a trade for Nino was worth our 22nd overall pick. One year later, a disappointing season from Nino, and that fat contract and I’m not certain I make that trade for the #10 overall pick.
    That said, if the Wild were to absorb $1M of that contract, I’d have a tough time saying no to Nino on Drai’s wing long-term at $4.25/yr.

  67. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/debra-caruso/age-and-cognitive-ability_b_3095305.html

    I see your 2013 source from the huffingtonpost, and raise you:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/319185.php

    Cognitive functions declining due to age is normal. It’s a part of life.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    I haven’t read through the comments yet so I apologize if this has been posted but some terrible news re: Mantha:

    The Oilers are not expected to sign 2016 third-round pick Markus Niemelainen, reports Postmedia’s Jim Matheson. The 19-year-old was the 66th overall selection out of Saginaw of the OHL that year but he had a tough post-draft season and wound up being loaned to HPK of the SM-liiga for 2017-18 where he posted three points in 42 games.

    Meanwhile, Matheson notes that the blood clot that Edmonton defensive prospect Ryan Mantha sustained earlier this season could be a career-ender. Mantha was originally a fourth-round pick of the Rangers back in 2014 but did not sign with them and wound up joining the Oilers in March of 2017. He last suited up for their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield in early February and tallied ten points in 41 contests.

    https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2018/05/snapshots-niemelainen-mantha-hurricanes-soderstrom.html

  69. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kotkaniemi’s boxcars are nearly identical to Rantanen’s in his draft year, and is 9 months younger than Rantanen was. When Rantanen was close to Pulju’s age, he was wrapping up an incredible season in the AHL. Hope Jesse can follow that up with a 20YO season like Rantanen’s in the neighbourhood of 40P before hopefully exploding as well.

    Kotkaniemi would be my guy, if he were to fall to 10 which I’m starting to highly doubt he will

  70. JimmyV1965 says:

    bendelson:
    I don’t know if you recall a conversation we had regarding Nino at this time last year WG…
    We both agreed a trade for Nino was worth our 22nd overall pick.One year later, a disappointing season from Nino, and that fat contract and I’m not certain I make that trade for the #10 overall pick.
    That said, if the Wild were to absorb $1M of that contract, I’d have a tough time saying no to Nino on Drai’s wing long-term at $4.25/yr.

    Would love to get Nino but to would want to structure the deal where we swap 10 and 24.

  71. Cassandra says:

    No predictive model is every going to predict the amplitude of outliers, that is the degree to which a team over or under performs expectations. In this respect outliers are by nature unpredictable.

    However, analytic models do much better than conventional wisdom at predicting who might be outliers.

    For instance, the predictive model at the athletic was much higher on Las Vegas, and much lower on Edmonton, than everyone else.

    Similarly, when the Blues started hot and everyone thought they were the best team in hockey, that model consistently wasn’t impressed. Turned out it was right.

    It is simply false to say that “analytics” is no good at predicting the future. The only way it looks bad is by applying a level of expectation for what constitutes success that does not fit the thing being predicted.

    It is pretty ironic that the narrative crowd, which is by definition based on hindsight, is now accusing the analytic crowd of hindsight bias. Nothing could be further than the truth, and the accusation demonstrates a fundamental l ignorance of what is being said, and the issues that are under debate.

  72. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I haven’t read through the comments yet so I apologize if this has been posted but some terrible news re: Mantha:

    The Oilers are not expected to sign 2016 third-round pick Markus Niemelainen, reports Postmedia’s Jim Matheson.The 19-year-old was the 66th overall selection out of Saginaw of the OHL that year but he had a tough post-draft season and wound up being loaned to HPK of the SM-liiga for 2017-18 where he posted three points in 42 games.

    Meanwhile, Matheson notes that the blood clot that Edmonton defensive prospect Ryan Mantha sustained earlier this season could be a career-ender.Mantha was originally a fourth-round pick of the Rangers back in 2014 but did not sign with them and wound up joining the Oilers in March of 2017.He last suited up for their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield in early February and tallied ten points in 41 contests.

    https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2018/05/snapshots-niemelainen-mantha-hurricanes-soderstrom.html

    That’s really sad. I hope Mantha can be treated to an extent so this doesn’t adversely affect his life after hockey.

  73. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side: I see your 2013 source from the huffingtonpost, and raise you:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/319185.php

    Cognitive functions declining due to age is normal. It’s a part of life.

    Short term memory and long term decision making are distinctly different cognitive abilities. Brain aging undoubtedly erodes the former. The jury is still very much out on whether it erodes the latter in otherwise healthy brains.

    Lou may forget where he put his car keys on occasion. I doubt he’s forgotton how to manage an NHL roster.

  74. Cassandra says:

    And this salary model is obviously a work in progress. However, already it is miles better than the alternative of arbitrarily making things up to fit our preconceived idea of how things are.

    NHL contracts are not wholly rational. Irrational actions cannot be predicted. However, NHL contracts do follow patterns, these patterns can be identified and approximated, which is all that a model tries to do. Identify and approximate these patterns by following general rules, rather than applying them ad hoc. That is it.

    However, reasoning in this way is never going to predict an individual contract that deviates from these patterns because some actor behaved differently than one would expect. What it does, rather, is provide a way of thinking about these issues by providing a starting point based on past experience.

  75. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks: Short term memory and long term decision making are distinctly different cognitive abilities. Brain aging undoubtedly erodes the former. The jury is still very much out on whether it erodes the latter in otherwise healthy brains.

    Lou may forget where he put his car keys on occasion. I doubt he’s forgotton how to manage an NHL roster.

    Now what if every other GM in the league was aged to be Lamoriello age. Would you still feel confident they would all be able to manage an NHL roster effectively?

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: which team had best SV% in all situations coming into playoffs?

    I look at individual goalies (who will start in the playoffs) rather than team as you’re betting on one goalie.

    Only WSH was a question.

    Funny thing there is that Holby had an awful season and Grubauer had a great one so I was hoping they’d go with Grubauer.

    They go with Grubauer and he loses the first two vs CBJ (both in overtime) and then they go with Holtby and he’s put up a .927 so far…

    Best all situation SV% starter who was in the playoffs this year was ….. wait for it….. Fleury with a .927

  77. Yeti says:

    Side: I see your 2013 source from the huffingtonpost, and raise you:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/319185.php

    Cognitive functions declining due to age is normal. It’s a part of life.

    I’m not sure that posting an article form ‘The Medical News Today’ written by someone whose expertise is ‘writing for wedding publications covering both consumer and trade divisions’ is really much of a ‘raise’ as you put it.

    You may find that while certain cognitive functions, such as memory and reaction time do decrease with age, other aspects – such as knowledge – do not. More to the point, these trends are highly variable across populations, making generalizations more difficult.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    I don’t know if you recall a conversation we had regarding Nino at this time last year WG…
    We both agreed a trade for Nino was worth our 22nd overall pick.One year later, a disappointing season from Nino, and that fat contract and I’m not certain I make that trade for the #10 overall pick.
    That said, if the Wild were to absorb $1M of that contract, I’d have a tough time saying no to Nino on Drai’s wing long-term at $4.25/yr.

    Nino had a +10% RelT GF% this year. Crazy good number.

    Points don’t measure who helps you win as much as people think.

    I would lose my mind happy if you can get them to hold $1MM on that contract.

  79. Undies says:

    bendelson:
    judgedrude,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    A couple of Stoneage Romeos on the blog today…

    Count me in. Going to see the show in Coffs Harbour Friday week playing with the equally impressive You Am I. The drinking that goes on may well be Death Defying.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: which team had best SV% in all situations coming into playoffs?

    Here’s all the playoff starter’s all situation SV% this season.

    I left in both WSH goalies so there are 17 in this list:

    Player Sv%
    MARC-ANDRE FLEURY 92.73
    PEKKA RINNE 92.72
    JOHN GIBSON 92.58
    CONNOR HELLEBUYCK 92.38
    PHILIPP GRUBAUER 92.34
    JONATHAN QUICK 92.13
    SERGEI BOBROVSKY 92.08
    ANDREI VASILEVSKIY 91.95
    TUUKKA RASK 91.87
    DEVAN DUBNYK 91.8
    FREDERIK ANDERSEN 91.77
    MARTIN JONES 91.47
    JONATHAN BERNIER 91.31
    KEITH KINKAID 91.27
    BRIAN ELLIOTT 90.88
    BRADEN HOLTBY 90.72
    MATT MURRAY 90.65

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Undies: Count me in. Going to see the show in Coffs Harbour Friday week playing with the equally impressive You Am I. The drinking that goes on may well be Death Defying.

    Excellent

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I haven’t read through the comments yet so I apologize if this has been posted but some terrible news re: Mantha:

    The Oilers are not expected to sign 2016 third-round pick Markus Niemelainen, reports Postmedia’s Jim Matheson.The 19-year-old was the 66th overall selection out of Saginaw of the OHL that year but he had a tough post-draft season and wound up being loaned to HPK of the SM-liiga for 2017-18 where he posted three points in 42 games.

    Meanwhile, Matheson notes that the blood clot that Edmonton defensive prospect Ryan Mantha sustained earlier this season could be a career-ender.Mantha was originally a fourth-round pick of the Rangers back in 2014 but did not sign with them and wound up joining the Oilers in March of 2017.He last suited up for their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield in early February and tallied ten points in 41 contests.

    https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2018/05/snapshots-niemelainen-mantha-hurricanes-soderstrom.html

    That’s terrible news for Mantha.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra:
    No predictive model is every going to predict the amplitude of outliers, that is the degree to which a team over or under performs expectations.In this respect outliers are by nature unpredictable.

    However, analytic models do much better than conventional wisdom at predicting who might be outliers.

    For instance, the predictive model at the athletic was much higher on Las Vegas, and much lower on Edmonton, than everyone else.

    Similarly, when the Blues started hot and everyone thought they were the best team in hockey, that model consistently wasn’t impressed.Turned out it was right.

    It is simply false to say that “analytics” is no good at predicting the future.The only way it looks bad is by applying a level of expectation for what constitutes success that does not fit the thing being predicted.

    It is pretty ironic that the narrative crowd, which is by definition based on hindsight, is now accusing the analytic crowd of hindsight bias.Nothing could be further than the truth, and the accusation demonstrates a fundamental l ignorance of what is being said, and the issues that are under debate.

    The narrative crowd listens to a weather forecaster say “60% chance of rain today” and when it doesn’t rain thinks “that forecaster was wrong!!”

  84. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side: Now what if every other GM in the league was aged to be Lamoriello age. Would you still feel confident they would all be able to manage an NHL roster effectively?

    This is one of the classic ‘go to’ arguments for people who feel justified in stereotyping a group. Some of the group likely have these issues, so shouldn’t we have these same concerns for all of them?

    But just as it’s sexist and wrong to say ‘no women should be allowed to be firefighters because they ALL lack the upper body strength required for the job’ because many women clearly can meet the strength requirements, so is it ageist and wrong to say ‘No older men should be allowed to be NHL GMs cos clearly ALL of them are forgetful old gits’ because clearly there are some older men that are excelling cognitively. These high achieving men were better than their peers when they were younger, and they’re likely still better than their peers now.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    LC Paul Stastny, $5.4 million. He would be a terrific addition, playing alongside Leon on the No. 2 line. Just out of reach but if the club could find a way to offload a $4 million player this would be an option.

    ____________________________________________________

    This could be done by not qualifying Strome and replacing Kassian with a $1M fourth liner.

    $5.4M seems low for Stastny though, doesn’t it?

  86. Connoreah says:

    Cassandra,

    “It is pretty ironic that the narrative crowd, which is by definition based on hindsight, is now accusing the analytic crowd of hindsight bias. Nothing could be further than the truth, and the accusation demonstrates a fundamental l ignorance of what is being said, and the issues that are under debate.”

    To be fair, I’ve posed the question to you directly on at least 2 occasions what you think the Oilers “should” do, because you’re always very critical of what they “have” done and anyone who defends a move that has been made previously (which you disagreed with). I believe on both occasions you responded by saying you didn’t know, or that the team is ruined and nothing can fix them.

    So once again, I ask – what moves would you make as GM of the Oilers this off-season? Specifically, who would you target and for what acquisition price? I’m sure you’ll have lots to say about the moves that will happen after they happen, but given your comment – here’s your opportunity to go on the record and comment on the future, as opposed to the past.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s all the playoff starter’s all situation SV% this season.

    I left in both WSH goalies so there are 17 in this list:

    PlayerSv%
    MARC-ANDRE FLEURY92.73
    PEKKA RINNE92.72
    JOHN GIBSON92.58
    CONNOR HELLEBUYCK92.38
    PHILIPP GRUBAUER92.34
    JONATHAN QUICK92.13
    SERGEI BOBROVSKY92.08
    ANDREI VASILEVSKIY91.95
    TUUKKA RASK91.87
    DEVAN DUBNYK91.8
    FREDERIK ANDERSEN91.77
    MARTIN JONES91.47
    JONATHAN BERNIER91.31
    KEITH KINKAID91.27
    BRIAN ELLIOTT90.88
    BRADEN HOLTBY90.72
    MATT MURRAY90.65

    Betting on the team with the better starting goalie all situation SV% so far this playoffs:

    1st round 5-3
    2nd round 3-1
    3rd round 1-0 (so far)

    9-4 = 69% = nice

  88. Side says:

    Yeti: I’m not sure that posting an article form ‘The Medical News Today’ written by someone whose expertise is ‘writing for wedding publications covering both consumer and trade divisions’ is really much of a ‘raise’ as you put it.

    You may find that while certain cognitive functions, such as memory and reaction time do decrease with age, other aspects – such as knowledge – do not. More to the point, these trends are highly variable across populations, making generalizations more difficult.

    Huffingtonpost

    “HuffPost is a liberal American news and opinion website and blog that has both localized and international editions”

    Medical News Today

    “Medical News Today is a web-based outlet for medical news, targeted to both physicians and the general public.”

    I would say one news outlet would have more weight over the other.

    But I am no expert and I believe nothing is totally conclusive one way or the other.

    I just don’t have confidence that an average 75 year old person would still be able to have the same cognitive function to do the same role they did when they were.. say.. 30 years old.

    I also don’t think ageism is a comparable stereotype to stereotyping people of colour and/or women.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilSafety:
    Who do we see filling the PK roles this coming season? After losing Lander, Pouliot, etc. it was a glaring hole last year.

    After McLellan took over the PK and there was some personnel changes (Letestu and Caggulia replaced with Khaira and Strome), the Oilers PK was 2nd in the NHL from February 1 through the rest of the year.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t get the hate for the Drake. Sure he was bad defensively last year, but he scored 13 goals. I think it’s madness to write off a player with 127 games of experience. Good defence can be taught. He just needs to be put in a position to succeed. Why would you walk away from a 13 goal scorer who will basically get league minimum?

    I’ve said it before. If we walk away from the Drake and he scores 15 goals somewhere else while playing better defence, the howls of outrage on this site will be deafening.

    Many do but I agree one can’t discount 13 goals, not with our collection of wingers.

    I am simply responding to state that I don’t believe he will get near the league minimum but about double it (in the $1.25M – $1.5M range).

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Many do but I agree one can’t discount 13 goals, not with our collection of wingers.

    All of these things are true:

    1) Caggiula scored 13 goals which was 4th on the team

    2) Every Oiler’s 5v5 goal share tanked when they played with Caggiula

    3) Games are determined by who has more goals than the opponent

    4) A player can score goals and still be a big drag on goal share and therefore a drag on winning

    5) Players seem to be evaluated and paid based on how many points they get

    6) Players who get points, even a lot of points, can actually be a drag on team’s ability to win games

    7) The biggest inefficiency in the NHL is paying/hiring players based on points and not contribution to goal share

    8) This inefficiency is worst among Dmen

    Also,

    Ask yourself this question:

    If I had another player at the same cost who would score exactly the same 13 goals as Caggilua did in the same spots and not be a drag on winning would I prefer him to Caggiula?

    If you answer yes, then I think there are a ton of players who fit that mould at the same price (maybe even cheaper)

  92. VOR says:

    Here is a great introduction to how cognitive functions change with age. This a brilliant review article of many of the key papers in the field. I picked it because it requires no scientific background to understand the key points (though probably some of you will end up going and checking out a neuroanatomy or neurophysiology site to lear about things like grey matter, white matter etc.). I am not going to try characterizing it other than to say this paper confirms that neuroanatomical aging starts at 20 and that at 30 and again at 45 there are what you might call break points where certain cognitive skills are visibly worse versus younger populations.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4015335/

  93. RonnieB says:

    I wonder if posters who are counting on signing Caggiula, Benning and Strome to low-ball offers this summer are aware that all of them are eligible for arbitration.
    Edit: Nurse is eligible after one more year.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Nino as Leon’s shooter? Yes, please! Would #10 and Safin get it done?

    The Oilers have apx. $2M of cap room so we need to open up $3M plus in addition to the 10th and Safin.

  95. Cassandra says:

    Connoreah:
    Cassandra,

    “It is pretty ironic that the narrative crowd, which is by definition based on hindsight, is now accusing the analytic crowd of hindsight bias. Nothing could be further than the truth, and the accusation demonstrates a fundamental l ignorance of what is being said, and the issues that are under debate.”

    To be fair, I’ve posed the question to you directly on at least 2 occasions what you think the Oilers “should” do, because you’re always very critical of what they “have” done and anyone who defends a move that has been made previously (which you disagreed with). I believe on both occasions you responded by saying you didn’t know, or that the team is ruined and nothing can fix them.

    So once again, I ask – what moves would you make as GM of the Oilers this off-season? Specifically, who would you target and for what acquisition price? I’m sure you’ll have lots to say about the moves that will happen after they happen, but given your comment – here’s your opportunity to go on the record and comment on the future, as opposed to the past.

    Well, at the time of all of the moves I criticized I did give alternatives. For instance:

    On the day of the Reinhart trade I said that there was no evidence Reinhart was any better than Marincin and that if they were going to trade for an Islander D prospect it should be for someone with upside like Ryan Pulock. Still a bad trade, but much better than paying a premium for a failing prospect who had been passed.

    Today: Right on all counts

    On the days of the Hall trade and Lucic signing I said that you should never trade a star or near superstar for a defensive defensemen who is by any reasonable measure a 2nd pairing guy. I said that Lucic’s contract made him not worth a 7th round pick. I also said in response to the statement that the Oilers needed to improve their D, that the combination of Hall + Demers was infinitely better than the combination of Lucic + Larsson + salary savings.

    Today: Right on all counts

    On the day of the Eberle for Strome trade I said that what matters was marginal goals and 3 year track record and that you couldn’t magically replace the difference between Strome’s 10-15 goals and Eberle’s 20-30 goals. I also said that the only way you could argue that Maroon was the more valuable player than Eberle, even in Maroon’s career year, was if you thought that assists don’t matter. I said that Maroon wasn’t going to replace Eberle either.

    Today: Right again.

    As to what I would do if I was in charge of the Oilers. The answer is in the short term, do nothing. Add on the fringes but do everything you can to avoid long term salary commitments. If the goal is to assemble a dominant team this goal cannot be accomplished without reversing the damage done by Chiarelli.

    For the long term, I would focus on two things:

    1) Draft according to the rationale laid out by guys like Pronman and Wheeler. Add as much talent as I can. The difference in draft boards is such that I should be able to get two first round talents every year.

    2) Set up a WAR model to value contracts and use this rigorously when negotiating RFA contracts. Don’t be the team to overpay these guys relative to what other teams are doing.

    3) Use my salary cap flexibility to acquire pending RFA guys at a discount from teams that are capped out (the Teravainen model).

    4) Use whatever cap space I have to re-sign my own UFA who are flourishing in this environment. Never pay the UFA premium for a player that I don’t know how they will do under these circumstances.

    5) When I do spend money on UFA’s spend it on guys who fall through the cracks and are unsigned in September.

    6) In general try and avoid mid priced talent. I want a team of superstars, guys on contracts with built in RFA discounts, guys on ELC, and veterans for under 2 M.

    7) Don’t trade first or 2nd rd picks for rentals. Ok, to trade them for RFA players, or legit very good players with term.

    8) I am fine with trading 3rd round picks for rentals. If I am doing my job well I can get similar players in the 6th and 7th rounds.

  96. pts2pndr says:

    Side: I see your 2013 source from the huffingtonpost, and raise you:

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/319185.php

    Cognitive functions declining due to age is normal. It’s a part of life.

    I understand and agree with your statement on aging. What is too old to function at a high level? There is no true definition of old as it seems to be a relative term according to the age of the individual to whom you pose the question. I would submit the the relative cognitive ability of any individual at any age is variable! Therefore without testing, while age is a definite factor,it is only one of many. To arbitrarily say that any individual is cognitively impaired regardless of age is socially unaceptable!

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Kotkaniemi’s boxcars are nearly identical to Rantanen’s in his draft year, and is 9 months younger than Rantanen was. When Rantanen was close to Pulju’s age, he was wrapping up an incredible season in the AHL. Hope Jesse can follow that up with a 20YO season like Rantanen’s in the neighbourhood of 40P before hopefully exploding as well.

    Kotkaniemi would be my guy, if he were to fall to 10 which I’m starting to highly doubt he will

    Kotkaniemi is my pick at #10, but if he isn’t available it means someone else good is, so there’s that.

  98. Santa says:

    Side,

    SIDE, did you actually read that article you posted? Regardless, if you’re going to use articles to support a scientific position, I suggest you use primary sources. Try running a search on pubmed, or Google Scholar.

  99. Connoreah says:

    Cassandra,

    Thanks for responding! Two things:

    1. You call Larsson a 2nd pair d-man by any measure, and declare yourself right on all counts. What are all the measures you rely on for your claim that Larsson is a 2nd pairing dman? Does TOI or quality of competition faced factor into what defines a 1st pairing dman? You may be right (you tell us you are), but I don’t see any supporting evidence to back your claim.

    2. For your ‘looking forward’ comments, your comments amount to “do smart things by getting good players for cheap by being smart.” LOL. You don’t name a single player in, or a single player out. Not one. I mean doesn’t it seem a bit cowardly to criticize actual decisions with actual people after the fact, when you yourself can’t or won’t identify a single move you’d make if you were in charge?

  100. Snowman says:

    Can you all do me a favour? I lost my Dad last night suddenly. If your Dad is still with you please give him a call or a hug today and just tell him you love him and if you’ve got kids make sure you do the same.

    I wish I could.

  101. Cassandra says:

    Connoreah:
    Cassandra,

    Thanks for responding!Two things:

    1. You call Larsson a 2nd pair d-man by any measure, and declare yourself right on all counts. What are all the measures you rely on for your claim that Larsson is a 2nd pairing dman? Does TOI or quality of competition faced factor into what defines a 1st pairing dman? You may be right (you tell us you are), but I don’t see any supporting evidence to back your claim.

    2. For your ‘looking forward’ comments, your comments amount to “do smart things by getting good players for cheap by being smart.” LOL. You don’t name a single player in, or a single player out. Not one. I mean doesn’t it seem a bit cowardly to criticize actual decisions with actual people after the fact, when you yourself can’t or won’t identify a single move you’d make if you were in charge?

    I listed a number of moves that I would have made in the past, and which I said at the time.

    That was then. For the coming year I would do nothing. The Oilers are maxed out at the cap and have a below average group of prospects. Until those things change the best that can be done is not make it worse by spending money or trading picks/prospects.

    I would hire Corey Pronman.

    I say Larsson is a 2nd pairing D because every time I try and make a list of D that are clearly better than him and D that are in the same category as him, that is what I come up.

    I will say I would not define first pairing D as top 60 D. Rather, I think it makes more sense to define first pairing D as top 30 D in the NHL, with 2nd pairing D as 30-90. If you do that, then Larsson is a second pairing D by any measure you like.

    This measure better reflects the talent distribution in the NHL then by saying that each teams has two top pairing spots. Doing it that way forces you to make arbitrary distinctions between players (there isn’t a big difference in talent between #45 and #65 in the NHL, but there is a big difference between #10 and #30).

  102. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t get the hate for the Drake. Sure he was bad defensively last year, but he scored 13 goals. I think it’s madness to write off a player with 127 games of experience. Good defence can be taught. He just needs to be put in a position to succeed. Why would you walk away from a 13 goal scorer who will basically get league minimum?

    I’ve said it before. If we walk away from the Drake and he scores 15 goals somewhere else while playing better defence, the howls of outrage on this site will be deafening.

    Most of those 13 goals were with McDavid, and he was, I believe, a minus player with McDavid. So even when he was getting a few goals with McDavid, and depressing McDavid’s offense, Caggiula was giving up more.

    Caggiula. No offense, except with a generational talent, and no defense, even with a generational talent. He is a top six AHL forward, that is what Caggiula is.

  103. Justthestatsman says:

    Side: Now what if every other GM in the league was aged to be Lamoriello age. Would you still feel confident they would all be able to manage an NHL roster effectively?

    Some would argue that there’s at least one current NHL GM that’s not able to do this at his current age, which is considerably less than Lou’s age.

  104. McSorley33 says:

    Las Vegas is what makes sports fun to watch…..not just in the Finals but they have only lost
    3 games in the post season.

    Lost in all the news of Lou going to Brooklyn…is the fact the authorities have finally caught up with Garth Snow.

    I assume Peter will be sleeping a lot better at night with Garth Snow off the streets. That predator will never harm poor Peter again.

    Paul Fenton to Minny. Rats.

  105. Nix says:

    Bag of Pucks: Imagine if this statement was made about a woman or a person of colour?

    As a person ages, you become more and more aware of this mentality (i.e. ageism) and you realize that it’s as omnipresent and offensive as racism and sexism. Maybe ageism will get its own #MeToo movement one day?

    Broad brush stereotyping of any group of people is ignorant: same as it ever was.

    There is legit brilliant discussion on LT regularly. Unique on the Al Gore and beloved by many.

    That said, this is the most mind numbing thing ive seen on here perhaps ever. How much soy did you consume today?

    ‘Akshually guuuyz… people dont diminish as they age. Thats a patriarchal canard thats reinforced in our opressive society and we all know literally everything is relative. Also, RACISM!!!’

    WTF are you even talking about right now?

  106. Side says:

    pts2pndr: I understand and agree with your statement on aging. What is too old to function at a high level? There is no true definition of old as it seems to be a relative term according to the age of the individual to whom you pose the question. I would submit the the relative cognitive ability of any individual at any age is variable! Therefore without testing, while age is a definite factor,it is only one of many. To arbitrarily say that any individual is cognitively impairedregardless of age is socially unaceptable!

    I’m not saying there is a set age. Everyone is different, everyone ages differently. It’s not said as an insult, everyone gets crappier in pretty much every way as they age.

    Santa:
    Side,

    SIDE, did you actually read that article you posted?Regardless, if you’re going to use articles to support a scientific position, I suggest you use primary sources.Try running a search on pubmed, or Google Scholar.

    I did actually. Is there a part of the article you felt I overlooked or countered the point I am making?

    I would love to browse published articles and go through source papers. However, I don’t have the time at the moment so will gladly post an article where someone does the work for me by discussing other peoples research.

    The overall point I am making is peoples cognitive functions decline as they age. This happens to everyone, this is normal. If it doesn’t happen to someone, they are the exception but there is still some sort of decline going on.

    Are there a lot of sources saying this is not the case? Our brains don’t get worse as we age?

    A GM of a professional hockey team is a position that relies heavily on using cognitive abilities, do we agree on this? I don’t think it’s controversial or outrageous to then suggest that someone who is cognitively declining due to being older may not be able to perform the job as well as they did in the past, or younger GMs on other teams.

  107. McSorley33 says:

    Snowman,

    Sorry for your loss….

  108. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Where’d you see Nino’s available btw?

    It makes sense after his year, because pointzzz, so I don’t doubt it but I want to read what’s been said for myself.

    Is it Russo?

    Nino’s one of my favourite players, and among my favourite player-type and I’d do a lot of maneuvering to acquire him.

    I’d love to see what he could do with Draisaitl, get the big German on the positive side of the ledger at centre for the first time, I bet.

    His goal numbers are insane rel-wise as you noted, I don’t know if you’ve done this before but go to his page on naturalstattrick and check out the teammates tab for each year and you’ll see he pulls up 90% of his teammates every single year.

    And then along with being a talented finisher himself, his lines also consistently ride higher than average 2nd line 5v5 shooting %, despite playing all over the place.

    Strong possession player who can also outperform his shot shares, and will never be able to bargain a big payday because he doesn’t put up gigantic numbers.

  109. bendelson says:

    Snowman,

    Hang in there Snowman…

  110. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Snowman:
    Can you all do me a favour? I lost my Dad last night suddenly. If your Dad is still with you please give him a call or a hug today and just tell him you love him and if you’ve got kids make sure you do the same.

    I wish I could.

    I’m really sorry to hear that.

    Lost my Dad 17 years ago now and I wish I could talk to him almost every day.

    Condolences.

  111. judgedrude says:

    Woodguy v2.0: There´s nothing new beneath the sun
    We´ve butchered every sacred cow
    Don´t tell me about all the things you might have done
    Just tell me what are you doing now – right now.
    Come anytime

    This must be a contender for the theme song for this blog….

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra,

    RHD I think are better than Larsson: (no particular order)

    1) Doughty
    2) Karlsson
    3) Dumba
    4) Pietrangelo
    5) Klingberg
    6) Jones
    7) Parayko
    8) Hamilton
    9) PK
    10) Carlson
    11) Stralman
    12) Manson
    13) Byfuglien
    14) Niskanen
    15) Johnson
    16) Pesce
    17) Spurgeon
    18) Tanev (when healthy…..)
    19) Weber
    20) Ellis – added later

    Ones I don’t have there due to serious Rel issues:
    1) Shattenkirk – hasn’t had a good Rel season in 3

    2) Burns – Last year was his best season ever, this season was his worst. He’s 33….. Also, career < 50% GF player away from Thornton for his career.

    3) Letang – The King of Vampire Dmen over the last 3 years. Had a phenomenal playoff in 15/16 so everyone thinks I'm crazy, but its true.

    I can't find 31 RHD I'd like more than Larsson.

    I assume you have the same 19 as me and then the 3 I don't.

    Who are the other 10?

    Genuinely curious, not being a dink.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Where’d you see Nino’s available btw?

    It makes sense after his year, because pointzzz, so I don’t doubt it but I want to read what’s been said for myself.

    Is it Russo?

    Nino’s one of my favourite players, and among my favourite player-type and I’d do a lot of maneuvering to acquire him.

    I’d love to see what he could do with Draisaitl, get the big German on the positive side of the ledger at centre for the first time, I bet.

    His goal numbers are insane rel-wise as you noted, I don’t know if you’ve done this before but go to his page on naturalstattrick and check out the teammates tab for each year and you’ll see he pulls up 90% of his teammates every single year.

    And then along with being a talented finisher himself, his lines also consistently ride higher than average 2nd line 5v5 shooting %, despite playing all over the place.

    Strong possession player who can also outperform his shot shares, and will never be able to bargain a big payday because he doesn’t put up gigantic numbers.

    I think it was Elliotte on one of the between period segments during the playoffs.

    Might have been 31 thoughts

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Where’d you see Nino’s available btw?

    It makes sense after his year, because pointzzz, so I don’t doubt it but I want to read what’s been said for myself.

    Is it Russo?

    Nino’s one of my favourite players, and among my favourite player-type and I’d do a lot of maneuvering to acquire him.

    I’d love to see what he could do with Draisaitl, get the big German on the positive side of the ledger at centre for the first time, I bet.

    His goal numbers are insane rel-wise as you noted, I don’t know if you’ve done this before but go to his page on naturalstattrick and check out the teammates tab for each year and you’ll see he pulls up 90% of his teammates every single year.

    And then along with being a talented finisher himself, his lines also consistently ride higher than average 2nd line 5v5 shooting %, despite playing all over the place.

    Strong possession player who can also outperform his shot shares, and will never be able to bargain a big payday because he doesn’t put up gigantic numbers.

    He’s a killer.

    Stone killer.

    I wonder why NYI and now maybe MIN gave up on him?

    Can’t be on-ice stuff with his results.

  115. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s a killer.

    Stone killer.

    I wonder why NYI and now maybe MIN gave up on him?

    Can’t be on-ice stuff with his results.

    The NYI ‘Anton Landered’ him back in 2011/12 (55GP, 1 point).
    I don’t think MIN dislikes him as much as they simply need to find cap room (and his playoff performances over the past couple of years don’t help his situation).

  116. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Cassandra,

    RHD I think are better than Larsson: (no particular order)

    1) Doughty
    2) Karlsson
    3) Dumba
    4) Pietrangelo
    5) Klingberg
    6) Jones
    7) Parayko
    8) Hamilton
    9) PK
    10) Carlson
    11) Stralman
    12) Manson
    13) Byfuglien
    14) Niskanen
    15) Johnson
    16) Pesce
    17) Spurgeon
    18) Tanev (when healthy…..)
    19) Weber

    Ones I don’t have there due to serious Rel issues:
    1) Shattenkirk – hasn’t had a good Rel season in 3

    2) Burns – Last year was his best season ever, this season was his worst.He’s 33….. Also, career < 50% GF player away from Thornton for his career.

    3) Letang – The King of Vampire Dmen over the last 3 years.Had a phenomenal playoff in 15/16 so everyone thinks I’m crazy, but its true.

    I can’t find 31 RHD I’d like more than Larsson.

    I assume you have the same 19 as me and then the 3 I don’t.

    Who are the other 10?

    Genuinely curious, not being a dink.

    Just curious, if you also take in contract as in annual cap as well as years signed which to my thinking is important value wise, where would Larsson fit or is that a too subjective?

  117. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    30 first pairing D = 15 RHD.

    I don’t disagree with your list, more or less. Though I would add that I wouldn’t have Larsson at the top of the next tier. He’s in a large group of second pairing D that it is difficult to distinguish between without finer grained analysis.

    If you define top pairing as 30 RHD, i.e. top 60 D, you are actually going to get a list of around 90.

    Top pairing = top 30 D or it becomes a term without meaning.

    Likewise there aren’t 90 top line forwards in the NHL, and there aren’t 180 top 6 forwards, etc.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Most of those 13 goals were with McDavid, and he was, I believe, a minus player with McDavid.So even when he was getting a few goals with McDavid, and depressing McDavid’s offense, Caggiula was giving up more.

    Caggiula.No offense, except with a generational talent, and no defense, even with a generational talent.He is a top six AHL forward, that is what Caggiula is.

    Caggiula had 9 5v5 goals this year.

    Here are the goals he scored with every center and also that center’s GF% with Caggiula and his GF% without Caggiula:

    (This adds up to 10 so two of the C’s must have been on the ice for one of them.)

    Connor McDavid 3 goals (146 min)
    GF% w/ 91 – 45.5
    GF% w/o 91 – 62.0
    16.5% drag

    Jujhar Khaira 3 goals (131 min)
    GF% w/ 91 – 57.1
    GF% w/o 91 – 40.5%
    16.6% boost

    Leon Draisaitl 2 goals (183 min)
    GF% w/ 91 – 43.8%
    GF% w/o 91 – 55.7%
    11.9% drag

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1 goal (96 min)
    GF% w/ 91 – 50%
    GF% w/o 91 – 55.3%
    5.3% drag

    Ryan Strome 1 goal (207 min)
    GF% w/ 91 – 35.7
    GF% w/o 91 – 56.4
    20.7% drag

    That last one is interesting. Is Strome a + 50% GF 3C if the coach doesn’t saddle him with Caggiula?

    That spurred me to look at Stromes CF% and GF% without 97, 29, 93 or 91 to make sure he was playing 3C and wasn’t with Caggiula.

    Strome has 488 minutes without any of those 4:
    CF% 48.6%
    GF% 46.4%

    Hmmmm. That’s not bad when you consider the team’s Non-McDavid on ice GF% was 41.1%

    If EDM gets a ~5% boost in GF with healthy Dmen and more rested goalie they may have a player there.

  119. BONE207 says:

    Snowman,

    Condolences Man…I can’t give hugs to mine but I’ll accept many.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: Just curious, if you also take in contract as in annual cap as well as years signed which to my thinking is important value wise, where would Larsson fit or is that a too subjective?

    I’d have to think about it.

    I don’t think the list would change too much.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not saying I’d be in favor of doing this (although I’m not sure I wouldn’t be), not that I can see this happening at all but its being discussed on another platform, what do people thing about a trade that would center around Drai and Subban?

    Subban is, in my opinion, an elite right shot d-man. I’m not concerned about his “atttitude” or anything like that.

    He is at $9M for four more years. To me that term is actually perfect – he’s 29 and I think will be in his prime (or close thereto) for the duration of the contract.

    Contracts and age, etc. aside, who has more value and does a swap make us a better team?

    Of course 22 years old versus 29 years old is a MAJOR consideration and 7 more years versus 4 years.

    Imagine:

    Nurse/Subban
    Klefbom/Larsson
    Sekera/Benning

    Bear, Jones, Samorukov, Lagesson, Berglund, Kemp percolating.

    I would love to find a way to do the deal for Nuge as opposed to Drai but even adding our 1st this year and next may not be enough and its not enough money going out.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    30 first pairing D = 15 RHD.

    I don’t disagree with your list, more or less.Though I would add that I wouldn’t have Larsson at the top of the next tier.He’s in a large group of second pairing D that it is difficult to distinguish between without finer grained analysis.

    If you define top pairing as 30 RHD, i.e. top 60 D, you are actually going to get a list of around 90.

    Top pairing = top 30 D or it becomes a term without meaning.

    Likewise there aren’t 90 top line forwards in the NHL, and there aren’t 180 top 6 forwards, etc.

    Ahh.

    I should have asked your definition of “1st pairing Dman” as everyone’s is different and I actually agree with you.

    Here’s something for you:

    Last two seasons combined – minimum 2000 5v5 minutes.

    NHL RHD who had the highest TOI% vs Elite on their team (or very close if team ran a Top 4) AND had a positive Relative Team Mate GF%:

    Player RelT GF%
    JOHN.KLINGBERG 11.21
    JOSH.MANSON 8.93
    DOUGIE.HAMILTON 8.70
    CHRIS.TANEV 7.17
    DREW.DOUGHTY 6.47
    BRETT.PESCE 6.06
    RYAN.ELLIS 4.77
    BRENT.BURNS 3.97
    SHEA.WEBER 3.89
    ADAM.LARSSON 3.72
    ANTON.STRALMAN 3.59
    ALEX.PIETRANGELO 3.56
    JOHNNY.BOYCHUK 3.13
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN 2.76
    MATT.NISKANEN 2.67
    JASON.DEMERS 1.36
    RASMUS.RISTOLAINEN 1.30
    TYSON.BARRIE 1.16
    P.K..SUBBAN 0.45

    Klingberg almost doesn’t qualify as Hitch ran Hamhuis-Pateryn hard vs Toughs but I left him in.

    I would argue that Larsson had among the weakest partners in that group as well. (Klef/Nurse) outside of Demers in FLA, Risto and Barrie.

    If I run it three years Larsson ranks even higher as he PDO’d to the tune of 1022 that year.

  123. digger50 says:

    Snowman:
    Can you all do me a favour? I lost my Dad last night suddenly. If your Dad is still with you please give him a call or a hug today and just tell him you love him and if you’ve got kids make sure you do the same.

    I wish I could.

    Message received Snowman. It’s so easy to forget with so many distractions and general business.

    Very sorry to hear about your father.

  124. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: But some people don’t age well at all and start losing their cognitive abilities and can’t perform their jobs as well as they used to or need to.

    I understand that not all old people are like this, so I get what you mean in that regard, but it happens.

    Not sure what that has to do with people of colour or women, really or how they’re even comparable.

    It’s incredibly rare I find that an old person has the same cognitive abilities as they did when they were in their 20s or 30s.And lets face it, every organization faces situations where they have older employees who don’t perform well in their job, but they can’t be let go, so they stay in the position and people tip toe around them, or the older person gets moved to a different position that can do less damage.Saying “all old people need to go” is wrong, but they’re also not wrong in saying some old people need to go because they can’t or won’t change.

    Cognitive decline starts according to a CBC report I heard about doctors, at about 70.

    Past retirement age for most people.

    In my experience in non professional non degreed industries, mot people aren’t that great at their jobs, and could care less. Perhaps the people you think are ‘old’ are just average people who’ve always sucked.

    I for one can’t employ young people because I can’t find any that try hard enough or care enough about their work to receive the money and potential for advancement freely available to them, in the short term.

    One must be careful when generalizing I think is the point.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ahh.

    I should have asked your definition of “1st pairing Dman” as everyone’s is different and I actually agree with you.

    Here’s something for you:

    Last two seasons combined – minimum 2000 5v5 minutes.

    NHL RHD who had the highest TOI% vs Elite on their team (or very close if team ran a Top 4) AND had a positive Relative Team Mate GF%:

    PlayerRelT GF%
    JOHN.KLINGBERG11.21
    JOSH.MANSON8.93
    DOUGIE.HAMILTON8.70
    CHRIS.TANEV7.17
    DREW.DOUGHTY6.47
    BRETT.PESCE6.06
    RYAN.ELLIS4.77
    BRENT.BURNS3.97
    SHEA.WEBER3.89
    ADAM.LARSSON3.72
    ANTON.STRALMAN3.59
    ALEX.PIETRANGELO3.56
    JOHNNY.BOYCHUK3.13
    DUSTIN.BYFUGLIEN2.76
    MATT.NISKANEN2.67
    JASON.DEMERS1.36
    RASMUS.RISTOLAINEN1.30
    TYSON.BARRIE1.16
    P.K..SUBBAN0.45

    Klingberg almost doesn’t qualify as Hitch ran Hamhuis-Pateryn hard vs Toughs but I left him in.

    I would argue that Larsson had among the weakest partners in that group as well. (Klef/Nurse) outside of Demers in FLA, Risto and Barrie.

    If I run it three years Larsson ranks even higher as he PDO’d to the tune of 1022 that year.

    Burns shouldn’t be on this list.

    Vlasic-Braun are HEAVILY used vs Elite forwards.

    So heavy that Burns’ TOI vs Elite forwards is closer to 3rd pair and 2nd pair Dmen.

    A few teams like BOS, NJD, CAR and a few others deploy this way as opposed to a “Top 4”

  126. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “Strome has 488 minutes without any of those 4:
    CF% 48.6%
    GF% 46.4%

    Hmmmm. That’s not bad when you consider the team’s Non-McDavid on ice GF% was 41.1%”

    I would add if TMac leaves him a centre all year and can leave a couple deecent wingers with him. Strome will always leave us wanting; but if he can deliver 48 – 51%CF & GF% In the 3C hole, that would go miles to this team making the playoffs

    I like Strome but would also add this is a big uear for him to be more consistent

  127. Side says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Cognitive decline starts according to a CBC report I heard about doctors, at about 70.

    Past retirement age for most people.

    In my experience in non professional non degreed industries, mot people aren’t that great at their jobs, and could care less. Perhaps the people you think are ‘old’ are just average people who’ve always sucked.

    I for one can’t employ young people because I can’t find any that try hard enough or care enough about their work to receive the money and potential for advancement freely available to them, in the short term.

    One must be careful when generalizing I think is the point.

    Strange, 70 seems extremely late in life and contradictory to quite a few reports I’ve seen showing decline often starts in the between 45-55. I would be interested to see the article if you can find it (I tried and could not).

    Regardless, aging and cognitive decline is a biological effect that happens to everyone.

    Choosing not to hire a young person because of your preconceptions of their work ethic is a bias, which is pretty different. Especially if you believe in the stereotypes about “younger generations”.

    Again, I’m not saying all old people should be fired because they’re old and therefore useless/slow/can’t adapt. I’m saying some old people should be fired or not considered because they just aren’t capable of doing their job sufficiently. It’s no different then a physical labourer who can’t physically work anymore. It’s not a sleight. It’s just life.

    And if “ageism” is such a sore spot around here, it’s a weird one considering how many athletes are frequently snubbed because they are “too old”. Granted, it’s a lot easier to see athletes physically decline but I can’t count how many times I’ve seen people say

    “No to ‘x’ player, too old, too slow”… but.. are they really “too old” or “too slow” if we haven’t seen them perform recently?

  128. Lowetide says:

    Snowman:
    Can you all do me a favour? I lost my Dad last night suddenly. If your Dad is still with you please give him a call or a hug today and just tell him you love him and if you’ve got kids make sure you do the same.

    I wish I could.

    So sorry to hear, sincere condolences. My Dad passed in 1992, and at the reception afterward people shared their stories about him. I was shocked to hear how much he bragged about his kids, we never saw that side of him. It helped, to hear stories about him and learn about his life after i left and moved out into the world. Each day heals a little more, although it’s been 26 years in June and I miss him very much. He never got to meet my kids, but I tell them about him all the time.

    I know it sounds impossible, but you’ll see a day when you laugh about a shared experience, or share something about you and your Dad that just jumps up and reminds you about what a great person he was and what he meant to you. He raised a good man, his gift to you and your gift to him.

  129. deardylan says:

    Save yourself 10,000 clicks until 2020. If the Leafs win the Cup – its all because of LOU. If they crash and burn, it’ll be DUBAS’ fault. Insert PC or his replacement and save yourself 20,000 reads.

  130. Snowman says:

    Lowetide,

    My Dad won’t have the chance to meet my kids either. I promised him that they would know him even if they never met him.

    I appreciate everyone’s kind words and condolences, I really do hope everyone takes some time for their parents or their kids today. No matter how much time you spend its never enough, especially when you don’t have any more left.

  131. deardylan says:

    Snowman:

    Was just delaying in calling my dad tonight. Read this and will call him right away.

  132. Snowman says:

    deardylan,

    Thank you.

    The conversation here today has been a welcome distraction.

  133. deardylan says:

    Side,

    Side. How old are you? How old do you feel?

    I’m 43 i noticed people saying that eyes start eroding around 40 and they started to wear glasses. After many years of alcohol I noticed my cognitive abilities eroding earlier than 40 so I stopped drinking. I noticed with no hangovers my mind is a bit sharper. 😉

    People say I look much younger than 40s. It must be because I run my own company, do my dream job and fire the clients that stress me out. haha.

    Also my liver repaired itself from fatty liver disease after 7 months of not drinking…and that organ when not working well seemed to have a big effect on bags under the eyes, sleep, and the look of my skin.

    Your body can be eroded much faster with the habits and can last past its warranty much longer with better ones!

  134. Jaxon says:

    Wilde:
    johnny gruden

    Exactly! You know what I’m talkin’ about.

  135. Lowetide says:

    Sounds like Evander Kane is nearing a 7-year, $49 million contract ($7m aav). Cane (above) had him $7.3 million times four. So, the money is close but SJS are handing out some major term (Kane is a young man).

  136. Wilde says:

    Lowetide:
    Sounds like Evander Kane is nearing a 7-year, $49 million contract ($7m aav). Cane (above) had him $7.3 million times four. So, the money is close but SJS are handing out some major term (Kane is a young man).

    Now, if they can get Joe back on a discount, and that’s the word, I think the Sharks might represent some trouble in this crummy dvision the Oilers(with goaltending and health luck) would be looking to take advantage of. They were also gunning for Tavares, guess that’s off.
    But now we might be up against:

    – A Sharks team with improved forwards

    – An Arizona team with damn good goaltending and (possibly) some plug and play draft talent / whatever Chayka cooks up, but OEL could blow their team up if he so desires

    – A Calgary team that (possibly) will have better goaltending

    I’m seeing the Ducks get worse unless Sam Steel arrives, a Knights team that will likely get raided and be Cup-hungover(right???), and a Kings team get worse.

    The only way in might be a wildcard., and that’s dueling down the Central.

  137. Wilde says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “Strome has 488 minutes without any of those 4:
    CF% 48.6%
    GF% 46.4%

    Hmmmm. That’s not bad when you consider the team’s Non-McDavid on ice GF% was 41.1%”

    I would add if TMac leaves him a centre all year and can leave a couple deecent wingers with him.Strome will always leave us wanting; but if he can deliver 48 – 51%CF & GF% In the 3C hole, that would go miles to this team making the playoffs

    I like Strome but would also add this is a big uear for him to be more consistent

    Strome needs the Strome-Khaira experiment to continue.

    Todd ran it for a bit, and then went “I’m going to try Strome 3C and Khaira 4C” after the deadline, and it went terribly, especially compared to the previous success of the duo.

    I can’t really say much about it because it was a developmental strategy and I approve of that in theory, but I’d really like more track on 18-16 because it looks good by eye and number

  138. Side says:

    deardylan:
    Side,

    Side. How old are you? How old do you feel?

    I’m 43 i noticed people saying that eyes start eroding around 40 and they started to wear glasses. After many years of alcohol I noticed my cognitive abilities eroding earlier than 40 so I stopped drinking.I noticed with no hangovers my mind is a bit sharper.

    People say I look much younger than 40s. It must be because I run my own company, do my dream job and fire the clients that stress me out. haha.

    Also my liver repaired itself from fatty liver disease after 7 months of not drinking…and that organ when not working well seemed to have a big effect on bags under the eyes, sleep, and the look of my skin.

    Your body can be eroded much faster with the habits and can last past its warranty much longer with better ones!

    That’s good on you for taking care of yourself. I don’t disagree with any of what you said and it’s good that you made those healthy life choices for yourself. Not everyone makes the same decisions though, unfortunately.

  139. Professor Q says:

    I hope everyone feels better eventually, but never forgets the good times. Even if it gets difficult at times. Mentally, physically, and both.

  140. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Snowman:
    Can you all do me a favour? I lost my Dad last night suddenly. If your Dad is still with you please give him a call or a hug today and just tell him you love him and if you’ve got kids make sure you do the same.

    I wish I could.

    Condolences

  141. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide,

    Kane is a great bet – he’s a player who at age 26 likely has his best hockey in front of him.

    Sometimes guys take a bit of time to mature, and in Kane’s case we’re seeing his full potential with Winnipeg and Buffalo (especially) having paid the cost of his maturation.

    I was hoping he’d take a one-year “prove-it” deal to play alongside McDavid to inflate his stats for a bigger payday, but he’ll make his money in the gridlock of Silicon Valley.

  142. Harpers Hair says:

    John Chambers:
    Lowetide,

    Kane is a great bet – he’s a player who at age 26 likely has his best hockey in front of him.

    Sometimes guys take a bit of time to mature, and in Kane’s case we’re seeing his full potential with Winnipeg and Buffalo (especially) having paid the cost of his maturation.

    I was hoping he’d take a one-year “prove-it” deal to play alongside McDavid to inflate his stats for a bigger payday, but he’ll make his money in the gridlock of Silicon Valley.

    Agree completely. Kane has played his entire career on poor teams in Atlanta, Winnipeg and Buffalo.
    With maturity and the chance to thrive in a more welcoming environment, he managed to to score at a +40 goal pace in a small sample size in SJ (without Thornton).
    He’s the goods.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting that the model has Trouba coming in below Nurse as far as cap hit (albeit on a one-year bridge).

  144. Munny says:

    Snowman,

    So very sorry for your loss. Be strong for your Dad during this horrible tragedy. And remember to take care of yourself too, and ask for help if you need it.

  145. Denis Lemieux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: All of these things are true:

    7) The biggest inefficiency in the NHL is paying/hiring players based on points and not contribution to goal share

    8) This inefficiency is worst among Dmen

    Agree with your take on players such as Caggiula and Faulk who has been talked about as a trade target. They both give up far more than they create and are a drag on overall results. But I would sign Caggiula cheaply, give him a clear 4th line energy role with decent help (say Khaira and Kassian) and make it clear that repeated defensive mistakes or cheating for offense means he sits. Give him another year in that role to see if he understands that heʻs going to have to work his way up the foodchain honestly. Can existing coach accomplish this? Questionable. But there is a player in there who reminds me a bit of Cogliano pre-trade.

    Also agree on Nino as a very good target. Might be able to buy low. Question is how to fit him in.

    My take on effective defense is similar and was wondering who you see as under-valued in terms of GF% results per dollar.

    If the team could somehow get Nino and Tanev by clearing cap and trading the #10 plus other assets not named McDavid, Drai, Klef, Larsson or Nurse, that would be one hell of a summer. A Tanev-type trade may not be possible until next summer when/if Sekera returns to form and his NTC expires.

    In one sense being so close to the cap is good. GMs tend to spend available money like drunk sailors on shore leave, and restrictions force them to be a bit more value conscious.

  146. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Agree completely. Kane has played his entire career on poor teams in Atlanta, Winnipeg and Buffalo.
    With maturity and the chance to thrivein a more welcoming environment, he managed to to score at a +40 goal pace in a small sample size in SJ (without Thornton).
    He’s the goods.

    We will see how the goods plays when he doesn’t have a contract to play for

  147. John Chambers says:

    leadfarmer: We will see how the goods plays when he doesn’t have a contract to play for

    Yeah I think Kane’r will bring it certain nights and float others. I’m sure he’ll have a couple of seasons where that contract is more Bobby Ryan than Bobby Hull, but for now he’s a top line player at the top of his game.

  148. Biggus Dickus says:

    The big body thing on Svechnikov is horseshit imo. They said the same about Ekblad. Plus Svech is under 190lbs at 6’2. That’s not that big. Draisaitl didn’t get that knock. If I had to guess the trepidation has to do with the fact that his brother has stalled a bit, and that he’s Russian. I know that sounds cynical, but these are the same people who pushed Crouse. I would trade anything save Drai, Connor, and Larsson for that pick.

  149. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Side: Strange, 70 seems extremely late in life and contradictory to quite a few reports I’ve seen showing decline often starts in the between 45-55. I would be interested to see the article if you can find it (I tried and could not).

    Regardless, aging and cognitive decline is a biological effect that happens to everyone.

    Choosing not to hire a young person because of your preconceptions of their work ethic is a bias, which is pretty different. Especially if you believe in the stereotypes about “younger generations”.

    Again, I’m not saying all old people should be fired because they’re old and therefore useless/slow/can’t adapt.I’m saying some old people should be fired or not considered because they just aren’t capable of doing their job sufficiently.It’s no different then a physical labourer who can’t physically work anymore.It’s not a sleight. It’s just life.

    And if “ageism” is such a sore spot around here, it’s a weird one considering how many athletes are frequently snubbed because they are “too old”. Granted, it’s a lot easier to see athletes physically decline but I can’t count how many times I’ve seen people say

    “No to ‘x’ player, too old, too slow”… but.. are they really “too old” or “too slow” if we haven’t seen them perform recently?

    No preconceptions here. Experience on the ground, every day, in direct contact with all staff.

    I have come to believe that in any field, somewhere around 5% of people are really good at what they do, and it’s a decending scale from there- any age; any field of endeavour.

    The older people that underperform for me are often functioning alcoholics I think, but their performance issues aren’t from age but substance abuse, and I’m sure they were struggling always at work because of it.

    Your linking to a non scholarly article to back yourself given the level of education around these parts doesn’t reflect well on your ‘young people are smarter’ arguments. I assume you are young.

    Most success comes from attitude and application, as the Knights are proving, to get back to hockey.

  150. Scungilli Slushy says:

    John Chambers:
    Lowetide,

    Kane is a great bet – he’s a player who at age 26 likely has his best hockey in front of him.

    Sometimes guys take a bit of time to mature, and in Kane’s case we’re seeing his full potential with Winnipeg and Buffalo (especially) having paid the cost of his maturation.

    I was hoping he’d take a one-year “prove-it” deal to play alongside McDavid to inflate his stats for a bigger payday, but he’ll make his money in the gridlock of Silicon Valley.

    At that age Kane has peaked in production unless he’s different than most. I don’t see it. If he hasn’t rounded his game which good players do which contributes to lesser point production but maybe more overall contribution, Kane will be an expensive pain in the ass for a career minus 50 point player.

    At least Eberle is good in the room.

  151. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: At that age Kane has peaked in production unless he’s different than most. I don’t see it. If he hasn’t rounded his game which good players do which contributes to lesser point production but maybe more overall contribution, Kane will be an expensive pain in the ass for a career minus 50 point player.

    At least Eberle is good in the room.

    Kane scored at a 40+ goal 68 point pace in 17 games with the Sharks. And was +5.
    Opportunity and usage play a huge role in player success.

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: So sorry to hear, sincere condolences. My Dad passed in 1992, and at the reception afterward people shared their stories about him. I was shocked to hear how much he bragged about his kids, we never saw that side of him. It helped, to hear stories about him and learn about his life after i left and moved out into the world. Each day heals a little more, although it’s been 26 years in June and I miss him very much. He never got to meet my kids, but I tell them about him all the time.

    I know it sounds impossible, but you’ll see a day when you laugh about a shared experience, or share something about you and your Dad that just jumps up and reminds you about what a great person he was and what he meant to you. He raised a good man, his gift to you and your gift to him.

    Pretty goddamn dusty in here.

  153. godot10 says:

    Denis Lemieux: Agree with your take on players such as Caggiula and Faulk who has been talked about as a trade target. They both give up far more than they create and are a drag on overall results. But I would sign Caggiula cheaply, give him a clear 4th line energy role with decent help (say Khaira and Kassian) and make it clear that repeated defensive mistakes or cheating for offense means he sits.Give him another year in that role to see if he understands that heʻs going to have to work his way up the foodchain honestly. Can existing coach accomplish this? Questionable. But there is a player in there who reminds me a bit of Cogliano pre-trade.

    Caggiula is totally ill-suited as a 4th liner because he cannot play a whit of defense, so the 4th line will lose the goal share battlle against the opponent, and he cannot help at all on the PK. He also doesn’t score at all with actual 4th liners.

    He is NOT an NHL player.

  154. GMB3 says:

    Snowman: MCSORLEY33 says:
    May 22, 2018 at 2:52 pm
    Las Vegas is what makes sports fun to watch…..not just in the Finals but they have only lost
    3 games in the post season.
    Lost in all the news of Lou going to Brooklyn…is the fact the authorities have finally caught up with Garth Snow.
    I assume Peter will be sleeping a lot better at night with Garth Snow off the streets. That predator will never harm poor Peter again.
    Paul Fenton to Minny. Rats.
      (Quote)  (Reply)

    My condolences Snowman. My dad was diagnosed with acute myeloid leukaemia in March and it’s been a terrifying experience, being forced to realize that life without one of my parents may come much sooner than I anticipated.

    My dads in Edmonton and I’m on the island, so I’m going to have to make do with a phone call.

    I wish you all the best, take care of your family and be strong for them.

  155. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Snowman,

    – Ah Snow I’m gutted to you.I was actually wondering about you the other day: you were thinking about taking on a job awhile ago that as outside your comfort zone, and you came in here asking around

    – I’m sure your Dad had lots to say about that no doubt.

    – I have an 8 year old son that I hugged hard after baseball today, and I left a message with my 73 year old Dad, who lives in BC. I feel fortunate to be both a Dad and a Son: in your sorrow, you did some good by posting. All the best

  156. ArmchairGM says:

    Need a puck-moving defenseman? Try looking at Boston’s Matt Grzelcyk. He’s a lefty, but man does he look good by the numbers.

  157. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Caggiula is totally ill-suited as a 4th liner because he cannot play a whit of defense, so the 4th line will lose the goal share battlle against the opponent, and he cannot help at all on the PK.He also doesn’t score at all with actual 4th liners.

    He is NOT an NHL player.

    I see that you’ve used all caps for not so it must be true. The Drake isn’t an NHL player. Thanks for such a persuasive argument. Wonder where he plays next year. Europe maybe.

  158. Snowman says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Thanks Kinger. I’m glad you took the time.

    I did take that job. I’ve been working longer hours so I’ve been doing a lot more lurking here than getting in to discussion. it was a good choice. I’ve learned from some very bright people.

    how have you been doing? I remember baseball season as a boy. I loved it. I’m sure it’s a blast watching your kids play.

  159. Side says:

    Scungilli Slushy: No preconceptions here. Experience on the ground, every day, in direct contact with all staff.

    I have come to believe that in any field, somewhere around 5% of people are really good at what they do, and it’s a decending scale from there- any age; any field of endeavour.

    The older people that underperform for me are often functioning alcoholics I think, but their performance issues aren’t from age but substance abuse, and I’m sure they were struggling always at work because of it.

    Your linking to a non scholarly article to back yourself given the level of education around these parts doesn’t reflect well on your ‘young people are smarter’ arguments. I assume you are young.

    Most success comes from attitude and application, as the Knights are proving, to get back to hockey.

    Linking to an article that references scholarly articles and sums them up neatly is frowned upon around here? This is new to me.

    “The older people that underperform for me are often functioning alcoholics I think, but their performance issues aren’t from age but substance abuse, and I’m sure they were struggling always at work because of it.”

    Have you done drug tests on them and discovered it’s substance abuse problems that are related to their performance? You knock on generalizations and then just say all of your older people are functioning alcoholics and/or abuse substances which is causing their performance issues.

    “Don’t generalize old people as being slow and having cognitive issues.. generalize them as being alcoholics and or drug addicts instead.”

    Seems like people are kinda going out of their way to admit that yes, as people get older their cognitive function declines. Didn’t realize it was such a controversial opinion around here.

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Need a puck-moving defenseman? Try looking at Boston’s Matt Grzelcyk. He’s a lefty, but man does he look good by the numbers.

    http://sportsforecaster.com/nhl/player/9360

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=ev&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8476891

    He seems to make the players around him better. His 5v5 icetime is nearly identical to that of Torey Krug, yet his CF% / FF% / SF% / GF% etc are all much better, despite the ~11% deficit in zone starts.

    Woodguy, do you have his TOI vs elites this year and Krugs? Grzelcyk probably was sheltered because he spent very little time with Bergeron.

  161. VOR says:

    Side: Linking to an article that references scholarly articles and sums them up neatly is frowned upon around here? This is new to me.

    “The older people that underperform for me are often functioning alcoholics I think, but their performance issues aren’t from age but substance abuse, and I’m sure they were struggling always at work because of it.”

    Have you done drug tests on them and discovered it’s substance abuse problems that are related to their performance? You knock on generalizations and then just say all of your older people are functioning alcoholics and/or abuse substances which is causing their performance issues.

    “Don’t generalize old people as being slow and having cognitive issues.. generalize them as being alcoholics and or drug addicts instead.”

    Seems like people are kinda going out of their way to admit that yes, as people get older their cognitive function declines. Didn’t realize it was such a controversial opinion around here.

    Here is the sad truth.

    If you are 20 – you have already begun losing brain cells.

    If you are 30 – on average your cognitive functioning is worse than that of the 20 years olds that work with you or for you. You are already a dinosaur as far as 20 year olds are concerned.

    If you are 45 – on average 30 year olds now can present evidence that you are cognitively impaired and 20 year olds think you need to retire.

    If you are 60 – on average 45 year olds now can present evidence that you are cognitively impaired, 30 year olds think you need to retire. And 20 year olds think of you as having lived through the Second World War.

    And trust me it just gets worse from there on.

    The good news is that lifestyle choices, brain reserves, and cognitive use/adaptation mean some of us can look forward to remaining cognitively vital into our 80s, 90s and beyond. Not to mention in healthy people some cognitive functions remain unchanged as we age and others deteriorate very slowly. If you doubt any of that check out the paper I linked to earlier in this thread.

    Unequivocally on average cognitive function deteriorates with age. You are right. It just starts far earlier than you might like to acknowledge.

    Ageism is where you make assumptions about people’s abilities based on their age rather than the person actually standing in front of you.

    I have reached an age where this happens to me quite frequently. Worse, I watch it happen with my friend and business partner everyday. He is 70 and still doing ground breaking research, producing new very valuable intellectual property, and teaching a younger generation while getting rave reviews from the students. They love him. Yet because he looks older than he is at conferences and meetings people talk down to him and ignore him.

    Ageism is pernicious and damaging and numerous studies show it is getting more common. Your remarks came off as generalizations and you came off as ageist. I am sure you didn’t mean that but it is how it came across.

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: http://sportsforecaster.com/nhl/player/9360

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=ev&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8476891

    He seems to make the players around him better. His 5v5 icetime is nearly identical to that of Torey Krug, yet his CF% / FF% / SF% / GF% etc are all much better, despite the ~11% deficit in zone starts.

    Woodguy, do you have his TOI vs elites this year and Krugs? Grzelcyk probably was sheltered because he spent very little time with Bergeron.

    BOS is one of the few teams that run a top pair heavily against Elite Forwards.

    This ends up giving the other two pairs TOI vs Elite Forwards that is similar to most team’s 3rd pair.

    Carlo’s bump is most likely due to TOI w/ Chara

    BOS TOI% vs Elite Forwards:
    Zdeno Chara 49
    Charlie McAvoy 43
    Brandon Carlo 32
    Kevan Miller 29
    Adam McQuaid 26
    Torey Krug 26
    Matt Grzelcyk 26
    Nick Holden 25

    DFF% vs Elite Forwards
    Torey Krug 57.2
    Charlie McAvoy 54.2
    Kevan Miller 53.1
    Brandon Carlo 52.4
    Zdeno Chara 52.2
    Matt Grzelcyk 51.2
    Nick Holden 48.3
    Adam McQuaid 43.9

    GF% vs Elite Forwards
    Adam McQuaid 100.0
    Matt Grzelcyk 85.0
    Charlie McAvoy 72.4
    Brandon Carlo 69.6
    Kevan Miller 63.2
    Zdeno Chara 61.3
    Torey Krug 57.1
    Nick Holden 40.0

    The GF% is almost meaningless in samples of this size.

    Next you’d want to see TOI of each Dman with Marchand.

    I’d usually use Bergeron here, but he missed some time with injury.

    The WOWY with Marchard will tell you a lot as Marchand played 42% vs Elites.

    Its very likely that most of a Dman’s player’s time vs Elites on BOS was with Marchand’s line and that was the best line in hockey.

  163. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy v2.0: All of these things are true:

    1) Caggiula scored 13 goals which was 4th on the team

    2) Every Oiler’s 5v5 goal share tanked when they played with Caggiula

    3) Games are determined by who has more goals than the opponent

    4) A player can score goals and still be a big drag on goal share and therefore a drag on winning

    5) Players seem to be evaluated and paid based on how many points they get

    6) Players who get points, even a lot of points, can actually be a drag on team’s ability to win games

    7) The biggest inefficiency in the NHL is paying/hiring players based on points and not contribution to goal share

    8) This inefficiency is worst among Dmen

    Also,

    Ask yourself this question:

    If I had another player at the same cost who would score exactly the same 13 goals as Caggilua did in the same spots and not be a drag on winning would I prefer him to Caggiula?

    If you answer yes, then I think there are a ton of players who fit that mould at the same price (maybe even cheaper)

    1. You need fwd even goal volume that matches your divisions.
    NHL Top 90 16+evg
    Mcdavid 35 evg
    RNH 62gm 18 evg
    Draisatl 16 evg

    91-180 11-15 evg
    Maroon 57gm 14 evg
    Strome 11 evg

    181-270 7-10 evg
    JP 65gm 10 evg
    Khaira 69gm 10 evg
    Caggulia 67gm 9 evg
    ———————————- Top 6 fwd evg production
    Lucic 7evg
    Kassian 74gm 7 evg

    2. We need evg production.
    If you can get top 6 fwd evg production with with positive even goal differential (data column in player situation 3d matrix 10 years ago) ( you call goal share) (it is really WOWY +/-)

    3. The biggest mechanism for determining goal differentiation is High danger shot %: Low Danger shot % = 5:1
    So you kind of want to defend the HD area and attack the HD area.

    When you watch game play. Of the skaters dmen defend the highest shooting% area in the high danger area. The establish the HD density a goalie is subjected to. They each have thier own Save% avg the establish to thier side.

    Goalies have accelerated save movement to n stopping shots in open space in elevation.
    You want the best open space accelerating goalies.

    Fwdshave the highest HD penetration rates.
    You kind of want the best penetrating fwds cause the target open space better and thier expected career sh% avg tend to be very high. (Does not regress to league avg, but instead to thier own mean)
    It would be hard to believe all forwards target the same and penetrate the same, or regress to the some expected sh% avg.

    4. Not being healthy can be the biggest drag affect on a teams season.
    Taylor Hall yeilded terrible win% for the oilers when he was unhealthy.
    Plus he had terrible give away ratios.
    Healthy Hall was a stud.
    Unhealthy Hall was a playoff killer.

    Just like brutally awful HD defensive dmen.

    5./6./7. I have said this for years.
    Pp gets you a lot of points.
    But you need to measure the relative Gf vs league avg.
    Past few years I have multiplied that differential to come up with true goal affect in goals per season.

    That is why I stated a players true goal dif affect for
    Even vs 2.30-2.35 evg(F/A))/60
    PP 6.30-6.40 ppg(F/A)/60
    PK 6.30-6.40 ppg(F/A)/60
    Sadly the numbers can be negative going counter to MSM narrative and Fan narrative.
    Player is a -3 Goal fwd over the season.

    Woodguy and others give relative goal dif affect for players as a %
    I multiply that times Total TOI to present it in a +ve or -ve season goal total affect for the last 8 years.
    GD% can be a multiple of goal diffs. 2 different goal differentials/60 can have the same GD%
    But the concrete goal per season will be different.

    8. Theory: Offensive Dmen are OFFENSIVE
    A. They abandon def of HD area.
    B. Low HD penetration rates.
    C. Poor even offence Conversion at even
    D. Thier play can actually have a negative total goal affect/season on PP.

    All these years I gave you what players goal diff affect / season was.
    You might want to go back in the archives and educate yourself.
    I mean truly get an idea ofoff base some of your narratives were.
    Relative goal dif affect/60 x (EvenTOI or PPTOI or PKTOI) = total EV/PP/PK goal per season affect.

    Mark fucking Fistric bitches!
    Last year in Dallas
    Year in Edmonton 2 ga to his side. Nice Eva/60 rates.
    First year in Anaheim.

    Emperical data and video review of play mechanics must marry or you have to ask why.

  164. rickithebear says:

    Once you start to see a players Even goal total per season affect. You can compare it to his +/- to get gat a measure of the player.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca