System Restore

When my kids were little, I bought a computer from Hewlett-Packard. I didn’t know much about personal computers, so my neighbour came over and set it up, downloading some video games (some in DOS) for the little ones. Quickly my son took over as the computer expert (he was maybe five) and that led to some insane moments. He played J-Storm and beat Robo-Red, I accidentally bought him Duke Nukem one time and Mrs. Lowetide was not amused.

Now, my son digested the finer points of the computer like a bat out of hell, but he also had no fear. That’s the back story to explain the sheer panic I felt the Saturday morning I came downstairs to find him upset and staring at a WALL of green on the screen. It took the HP guy and me an hour to figure out the green item was the start button multiplied to 100,000 times.

I’ll never forget the HP guy, he talked me (and my son) through the ‘restore point’ reboot and we were off. Nifty thing, that restore point.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your hot liquid. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

  • New Lowetide: Pennants!
  • New Lowetide: Laurent Brossoit: 4-year audition results in a career crossroads
  • Jonathan Willis: Cam Talbot’s performance in 2017-18: Does it inject a note of uncertainty in his future with the Oilers?
  • Sunaya Sapurji: Oliver Wahlstrom has been in the spotlight for a long time, but his desire to be ‘special’ burns deep
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Summer 2018 on a budget. Calling Warren Foegele!
  • Lowetide: Is Stuart Skinner the real thing?
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

OPENING NIGHT 2016-17

  • Milan Lucic—Connor McDavid—Jordan Eberle
  • Patrick Maroon—Leon Draisaitl—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Benoit Pouliot—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Anton Slepyshev
  • Tyler Pitlick—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Andrej Sekera—Kris Russell
  • Darnell Nurse—Brandon Davidson
  • Cam Talbot (Jonas Gustavsson)
  • Scratches: Mark Fayne, Anton Lander, Matt Benning
  • Injured: Matt Hendricks
  • Source

This is the 103-point team, the best Oilers club since 2006 spring. Strengths include center. The wingers are mostly a veteran crew and there’s some nice secondary scoring on the bottom two forward lines. The defense is young, but the second pairing has lots of experience and is buoyed by recent signing Kris Russell (who took Griffin Reinhart’s job). Five men would score 20+ goals, Klefbom had 38 points and Sekera 35, while Cam Talbot boasted a .919 save percentage. Rookies included Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning and Anton Slepyshev. Drake Caggiula would soon join the lineup.

OPENING NIGHT 2017-18

  • Patrick Maroon—Connor McDavid—Leon Draisaitl
  • Milan Lucic—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Jussi Jokinen—Ryan Strome—Drake Caggiula
  • Jujhar Khaira—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Darnell Nurse—Eric Gryba
  • Kris Russell—Matt Benning
  • Cam Talbot (Laurent Brossoit)
  • Scratches: Iiro Pakarinen, Yohann Auvitu
  • Injured: Anton Slepyshev, Andrej Sekera
  • Source

This is the team that was so disappointing and you can see the cracks forming on opening night. Kailer Yamamoto kept earning playing time, kept pushing back his airline ticket, and the organization decided to send Jesse Puljujarvi to the minors. I said early in the preseason Yamamoto should have been sent down, because it gave the coach an out, an option that didn’t involve Puljujarvi. Yamamoto showed damn well but should never have been in the lineup.

Other worries include Eric Gryba and Darnell Nurse on the second pairing (Nurse had a fine game by my eye), Laurent Brossoit’s inexperience, and a third line that geared down from the Nuge with two veterans to a fixer upper season over season. It all fell apart, but there was reason to be worried.

PROJECTED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER 2018-19

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Connor McDavid—Ty Rattie
  • Milan Lucic—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
  • Pontus Aberg—Ryan Strome—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Jujhar Khaira—Cooper Marody—Zack Kassian
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Andrej Sekera—Kris Russell
  • Darnell Nurse—Matt Benning
  • Cam Talbot (Mikko Koskinen)

The jobs I hope Peter Chiarelli addresses are a scoring forward (RW) to push one of Rattie or Yamamoto down the depth chart; someone who can score 15 goals and penalty kill for the No. 3 line and force Aberg or other down the depth chart; some depth at 13F, 14F and 7D.

I believe the correct call on Jesse Puljujarvi is to play him on McDavid’s line, where he had success this past season. I haven’t listed him there because it’s unrealistic to expect Todd McLellan to elevate the young man. Expect at least a portion of the season to be spent on the No. 3 line.

Solid choices based on what we know, although I think it’s impossible to speak with authority on the issue. Good reputations, imagine Manny Vivieros will be announced with them in the coming days.

HARVEST MOON 2014

Leon Draisaitl’s selection made this draft, the second (and final) one for Craig MacTavish as general manager. I don’t think it was wise to insert MacT in the GM’s job (he didn’t have the experience) but he’s a bright guy and the bets in 2013 and the 2014 first round suggest he is an astute judge of amateur talent.

This was the final Stu MacGregor draft, and as much as I thought he did some very good things 2008-14 (Eberle at No. 22, three NHL talents in 2011, Leon) the draft in 2014 is probably a big reason he was let go. Two goalies out of six choices, no skaters beyond LD who would graduate in 2016. I think the organization felt the 2013 draft would produce so much in terms of forwards they were better off getting tier 2 talents in 2014 and allowing them to go the college route. All of that said, William Lagesson is tracking very well and Tyler Vesel earned a pro contract. If either of those men become NHL regulars, this unlikely draft will become a success. Leon was a big fly. My God.

  • Round 1, No. 3 overall: C Leon Draisaitl, Prince Albert WHL. 64GP, 38-67-105. NHLE: 82gp, 15-25-40. Bruce McCurdy compared him to a nose tackle, and I think that’s a very good description (if the nose tackle was the quarterback). Wonderful possession center with size, expert passer and creative thinker. Oilers love the big brains, imagine he has a big that, too. An extremely valuable young man.
  • Round 4, No. 91 overall: D William Lagesson, Frolunda Swedish Jr. 44GP, 8-12-20. Scrappy defenseman with size and an idea about how to get the puck up effectively, he was very impressive at the U18’s (7GP, 3-0-3 +5) and is a worthy selection. He’s 6.03, 203 so the size that opened with the Draisaitl selection continues here, although I would not call either a Coke Machine selection.
  • Round 4, No. 111 overall: G Zach Nagelvoort, Michigan NCAA. 24GP, 2.20 .929 I don’t think they needed to take a goalie here, but if they were going to take one Nagelvoort was a good one. A .929 save percentage out of the box in college? Yes, please. He’s 20, so may not turn pro until his prime.
  • Round 5, No. 130 overall: C Liam Coughlin, Vernon BCJHL. 53GP, 18-27-45. NHLE 82gp, 4-6-10. This is the ‘Evan Campbell Special’. At 17, Jujhar Khaira—who is shy offensively as an NHL prospect—scored 1.46 points-per-game in the BCJHL. At 19, Coughlin scored less than a point-per game.
  • Round 6, No. 153 overall: R Tyler Vesel, Omaha USHL. 49GP, 33-38-71. NHLE: 82gp, 15-17-32. This is our Hartikainen. Although he’s an older prospect, and should have dominated (which he did), there’s a nice history of offense with this player. I don’t really care about his obscurity, and those numbers are just really good. There’s plenty to criticize in this draft, but the Vesel pick isn’t one of them.
  • Round 7, No. 183 overall: G Keven Bouchard, Val d’Or QMJHL. 27GP, 2.95 .887. I’m not going to speak at length about goaltenders, because they are miles from my area of expertise. An .887 save percentage is not a good one. Suspect someone saw him good.

MATT HENDRICKS?

Peter Chiarelli signs old guys in free agency, it’s a thing. Matt Hendricks will be 37 next season and there were mountains of words written about his absence from the Oilers roster over the winter. Murat Ates, who is quickly becoming my favorite writer at The Athletic, recently wrote about the Jets who will stay and those who are likely to move on.

  • Murat Ates: The unrestricted free agent acquitted himself well at even strength but did not help the penalty kill. I don’t see room for Hendricks to re-sign in Winnipeg. Time will tell if he and Cheveldayoff see things the same way.

I would hope for more offense from a fourth-line player incoming, but the truth is Hendricks is probably on Chiarelli’s list of free agents he’ll pursue. That’s my guess.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

One of my favorite guests is Corey Pronman. I first read his stuff at HockeyProspectus, then ESPN and now The Athletic. Pronman’s scouting reports are filled with concise language and creativity, his rankings are original and he gives you the reasons behind them. Delighted to have him on the show today, 10:20. Any questions just drop them in the comments section or text 10-1260 after 10 this morning.

Also on the Lowdown (beginning at 10, TSN1260) will be Rob Vollman (ESPN, NHL.com) at 11:05 (we’ll talk Marian Hossa, analytics teams, Carolina’s decision to make most of their roster available) and Frank Seravalli from TSN at 11:25 (SC playoffs, new general managers popping up all over). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

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180 Responses to "System Restore"

  1. Cassandra says:

    Interesting article at the athletic on the alternate universe NHL with no Las Vegas and the players returned to their original teams.

    https://theathletic.com/365674/2018/05/24/entering-an-alternate-timeline-what-would-this-season-have-looked-like-if-the-golden-knights-didnt-exist/

    Good quote:

    “Florida being the team most hurt by the expansion process is not surprising and that’s far from hindsight either. Any hockey person with a clue (read: not Dale Tallon) could’ve told you giving up a 30-goal scorer making $750,000 for another season as a sweetener to unload a 50 point player in order to protect a couple of third pairing defencemen was extremely dumb at the time. Now? It’s a catastrophic mistake, one that somehow has not got the man in charge fired. “Thank god he’s back.”

    Compared to the average team, the Panthers likely lost seven standings points in the expansion process and missed the playoffs by… one point. It’s one of the most colossal front office failures the league has seen in years, arguably on par with trading an MVP calibre player for a second pairing defender. How Tallon still has a job running the Panthers after this colossal blunder is almost as baffling as his decision-making process that day.”

  2. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    Interesting article at the athletic on the alternate universe NHL with no Las Vegas and the players returned to their original teams.

    https://theathletic.com/365674/2018/05/24/entering-an-alternate-timeline-what-would-this-season-have-looked-like-if-the-golden-knights-didnt-exist/

    Good quote:

    “Florida being the team most hurt by the expansion process is not surprising and that’s far from hindsight either. Any hockey person with a clue (read: not Dale Tallon) could’ve told you giving up a 30-goal scorer making $750,000 for another season as a sweetener to unload a 50 point player in order to protect a couple of third pairing defencemen was extremely dumb at the time. Now? It’s a catastrophic mistake, one that somehow has not got the man in charge fired. “Thank god he’s back.”

    Compared to the average team, the Panthers likely lost seven standings points in the expansion process and missed the playoffs by… one point. It’s one of the most colossal front office failures the league has seen in years, arguably on par with trading an MVP calibre player for a second pairing defender. How Tallon still has a job running the Panthers after this colossal blunder is almost as baffling as his decision-making process that day.”

    We now know Dale Talon was ordered by owners to get rid of Smith’s contract at any price. Marchessault was the price.

  3. --hudson-- says:

    I remembered Tallon as the GM who built the 2010 Blackhawks. After a quick glance at Wikipedia was reminded of the time he sent out the qualifying offers by first class mail instead of priority.

    “That same off-season, however, Tallon and the Blackhawks management came under fire in early July 2009, when the National Hockey League Players’ Association (NHLPA) claimed the team did not submit qualifying offers to their restricted free agents before the deadline.[9] In the worst-case scenario, the team’s unsigned restricted free agents at the time, including Kris Versteeg, would have become unrestricted, earning them additional salary and negotiating rights.[9] Tallon was able to sign all his restricted free agents, although at a cost of millions more than he would have to had he qualified them in time.[10]”

    Wow that’s incompetence.

  4. dustrock says:

    a good twitter follow for draft eligibles’ stats is

    @MitchLBrown

    He looks at shots, zone exits and entries, etc.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra:
    Interesting article at the athletic on the alternate universe NHL with no Las Vegas and the players returned to their original teams.

    https://theathletic.com/365674/2018/05/24/entering-an-alternate-timeline-what-would-this-season-have-looked-like-if-the-golden-knights-didnt-exist/

    Good quote:

    “Florida being the team most hurt by the expansion process is not surprising and that’s far from hindsight either. Any hockey person with a clue (read: not Dale Tallon) could’ve told you giving up a 30-goal scorer making $750,000 for another season as a sweetener to unload a 50 point player in order to protect a couple of third pairing defencemen was extremely dumb at the time. Now? It’s a catastrophic mistake, one that somehow has not got the man in charge fired. “Thank god he’s back.”

    Compared to the average team, the Panthers likely lost seven standings points in the expansion process and missed the playoffs by… one point. It’s one of the most colossal front office failures the league has seen in years, arguably on par with trading an MVP calibre player for a second pairing defender. How Tallon still has a job running the Panthers after this colossal blunder is almost as baffling as his decision-making process that day.”

    When your boss tells you to dump 10 mil in salary its going to hurt. Reilly cost 6 mil in real money this year and next and Demers cost 4.7 mil this year

  6. stevebergeron97 says:

    Question for both Lowetide and Pronman on the show today. Let’s say the consensus top 9 is taken off the board come draft day.

    1) Dahlin 😍
    2) Svechnikov
    3) Zadina
    4) Tkachuk
    5) Boqvist
    6) Hughes
    7) Whalstrom
    8) Bouchard
    9) Dobson
    10) …

    Edmonton decides to keep their 10th overall pick, LT who do you take, who does Pronman take, and why!?

  7. Andy Dufresne says:

    For Pronman

    His rankings have Bouchard and Dobson at 18 and 20

    That puts Bode Wilde, Bouchard and Dobson all in a group from 16 to 20

    Has his ranking changed at all recently?

    How far down could the Oilers trade and be reasonably confident to get one of Merkly, Wilde, Bouchard, Dobson? 15? 17? 20?

    He says his rankings favour offense but he has Ty Smith at 21…Why?

    Is this a good year to consider trading down? (draft depth from 11th to 20th?)

  8. Andy Dufresne says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Question for both Lowetide and Pronman on the show today. Let’s say the consensus top 9 is taken off the board come draft day.

    1) Dahlin
    2) Svechnikov
    3) Zadina
    4) Tkachuk
    5) Boqvist
    6) Hughes
    7) Whalstrom
    8) Bouchard
    9) Dobson
    10) …

    Edmonton decides to keep their 10th overall pick, LT who do you take, who does Pronman take, and why!?

    Pronman has Kotkaniemi at 4th

    4. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat-Liiga

  9. Andy Dufresne says:

    Question for Pronman

    Is there any formal/anlytical means by which to calculate/measure ‘draft depth”…the depth of any particular draft…..

    Technically what qualifies as a ‘Deep Draft”? Are there gradations? what are they? what would they look like?

    How do they predict the depth of the 2019 draft?

  10. russ99 says:

    –hudson–:
    I remembered Tallon as the GM who built the 2010 Blackhawks. After a quick glance at Wikipedia was reminded of the time he sent out the qualifying offers by first class mail instead of priority.

    “That same off-season, however, Tallon and the Blackhawks management came under fire in early July 2009, when the National Hockey League Players’ Association (NHLPA) claimed the team did not submit qualifying offers to their restricted free agents before the deadline.[9] In the worst-case scenario, the team’s unsigned restricted free agents at the time, including Kris Versteeg, would have become unrestricted, earning them additional salary and negotiating rights.[9] Tallon was able to sign all his restricted free agents, although at a cost of millions more than he would have to had he qualified them in time.[10]”

    Wow that’s incompetence.

    Whispers here in Chicago name current GM Stan Bowman as the person directly responsible for this gaffe.

    Yet he still gets the GM job because he’s “advisor” Scotty Bowman’s kid, and inherited a cup team that Tallon built – plus that Saad – Panarin deal is looking just as disastrous as the Panthers expansion draft blunder.

    Let’s not forget the Wirtz family have been nepotastic well before Daryl Katz drank with the 80s Oilers.

  11. Zack says:

    I have to hand it to Chiarelli, he took a competitive roster, with the best player in the game and made the team worse with each progressive season.

    When does the bleeding stop?

  12. Lowetide says:

    Zack: This summer, or next under a new regime.

  13. Zack says:

    I sure hope so…

    I was hoping by some miracle Lou Lamoriello would be at the helm or some quality GM but I have a feeling it may be an Old Boys Club hire. Either way, I can’t see it being much worse. At least I hope not.

  14. jm363561 says:

    Zack:
    I have to hand it to Chiarelli, he took a competitive roster, with the best player in the game and made the team worse with each progressive season.

    When does the bleeding stop?

    The 2016 roster still reads well. It is shocking to see in cold hard print the deterioration in the roster on the opening night of 2017.

  15. Jordan says:

    Zack:
    I have to hand it to Chiarelli, he took a competitive roster, with the best player in the game and made the team worse with each progressive season.

    When does the bleeding stop?

    Lowetide:
    Zack: This summer, or next under a new regime.

    It’s really quite galling to consider the amount of future talent and contract value that’s been flushed by Chiarelli since his arrival.

    The man beleives that you can lose the trade and still build a successful team. Which is something I can accept – you won’t win every trade, or every contract negotiation.

    The questions that keep running through my head are:
    – How do the Oilers as an organization recover if they decide that Chiarelli’s “lose the battle win the war” plan has failed?
    – Is it possible to have the best player on the planet and manage the team so badly that you still lose?

  16. HiddenDarts says:

    After watching a few Hendricks playoff games (YES. The Oilers scratched him one year ago, and it took Winnipeg all the way into Vegas before they did the same), the only thing I can say is NO. JUST NO!

    Love the guy. Hire him as assistant equipment manager if you have to have him. But Iginla is no longer a player and Matt Hendricks is a UFA?

    NHL GMs surprise me daily.

  17. jp says:

    Zack:
    I have to hand it to Chiarelli, he took a competitive roster, with the best player in the game and made the team worse with each progressive season.

    When does the bleeding stop?

    jm363561: The 2016 roster still reads well. It is shocking to see in cold hard print the deterioration in the roster on the opening night of 2017.

    The roster progression (regression) is striking, but largely due to loss of a few forwards. It’s mostly driven by the Eberle trade, loss of Maroon to FA and the unforeseeable decline of Lucic (this bad and this soon at least). Subtraction of Pouliot for instance doesn’t hurt much (I, at least, remember him as a useful top 6 guy, but he wasn’t that player his last year in Edm or this past year in Buf).

    On a slightly more positive note, the 18-19 Dcorps has a real chance to be the best of the 3 even without any significant additions. With Nurse’s emergence, if Sekera and Klefbom can return to near 16-17 levels we should be ahead.

    On a related note, why is everyone seemingly so sure Sekera/Russell can’t return to being a decent 2nd pairing as they were in 16-17? I’m not claiming it’s a good bet to make, but there’s room for some real recovery among the existing D.

  18. slopitch says:

    Curious to hear Corey’s thoughts on Rasmus Kupari or trade down to get him. Oilers have too many slow boots. Would taking him be like taking Steve Kelly? Ha

    Im hoping Walstrom makes it to us.

  19. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I kind of wish you hadn’t put those rosters up, because it reminded me of why I am in the minority in seeing the logic of the change in roster from the 103 to last year:

    1) Jussi didn’t work (but niether would have Jagr or many names mentions
    2) Kailer – agree with LT: I think Coach was being sucky-baby so he slotted him in there
    3) Milan as the winger on 2nd line had reasonable production: untill the cliff fell
    4) Strome finally worked out as the 3C
    5) Jar showed well on 4rth, then with Strome on the 3rd
    6) Pou – whatever, but arm-chair GM says we didn’t need to eat his salary

    – The D a dog’s breakfast

    – I see the opening roster in 2017 as: should be .500, then everyone get heatlhy, and we load up at deadline. I agreed with the strategy, was dismayed by the results!

    – Lucic, Kailer, Josi, Letetsu, Maroon, Sleppy: they all vastly underperformed. Goalie sucked, Klef regressed, Larsson grieved, Sek slow, Nurse at end of year was top-4 D but not with Gryba

    – McD wasn’t as good as last year, nor was Drai. PP/PK sucked

    – Not one player exceeded expectations last year IMO

    – You have these new coaches, all with game, and no group think, McD and RNH as one of the most dynamic duos in hockey who will build of the chem the created, a D that plays more games intact, another winger who can step in, another D that adds to the mix: and you let the team play

    – I can paint a Cup scenario or I can paint a blow-up the whole thing scenario: anyone who is definitive about what this team is going to be next year is a seeling snake oil

    – I’m going to love posting, and adding my two-cents: but we are all kidding ourselves: only Yeti knows how team does next year. Recency bias vs regression vs parity vs luck

    * and did I mention we really really need a Goalie to make saves and not let in 1st shots

  20. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – McD wasn’t as good as last year, nor was Drai.

    You had me until here.

    McD was better than last year by a significant margin. Draisaitl was also better than last season 5v5 production wise. The special teams limited McDavid from winning the Art Ross by 30 points, and kept Leon out of 90 point territory.

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pink Socks: You had me until here.

    McD was better than last year by a significant margin.Draisaitl was also better than last season 5v5 production wise.The special teams limited McDavid from winning the Art Ross by 30 points, and kept Leon out of 90 point territory.

    – He had 8 more points than last year, yes: but relative to the his performance 2 years ago, he wasn’t as dominant in the league. I’m not hating on CmD, I just don’t think he was as good.

    – Two years ago he was unreal. 108 points was an expected result IMO: and he delivered

    – I don’t think we disagree: had the special teams delivered, then both CMD and Drai would have done much better than previous years.

    – CmD winning the scoring title is now expected, Drai 75-85 is expected.

    – I suspect when the win the Cup both will do much more than expected, along with many other factors that contirbute to the Cup wins.

    – Like CMD with 130 points: 20 better than next guy, and Drai with a 40-65-105 season. That’s what I’m talking about in terms of seasons.

  22. Rafa Nadal says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Draisaitl will never score 100 points in this league. Absolutely no chance.

  23. russ99 says:

    Vegas has at least 12 forwards that can play at least an NHL average game at both ends of the ice.

    What do we have? 3? 4?

  24. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pink Socks: You had me until here.

    McD was better than last year by a significant margin.Draisaitl was also better than last season 5v5 production wise.The special teams limited McDavid from winning the Art Ross by 30 points, and kept Leon out of 90 point territory.

    McDavid was deathly ill for six weeks. Lost more than 10 lbs. By the time he was healthy again we were out of it. This may have been the most significant injury of the year.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Draisaitl will never score 100 points in this league. Absolutely no chance.

    I wonder how many people would have said the same thing about MacKinnon prior to last year? And remember Drai has put up better numbers than Mac ever did prior to last season.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Draisaitl will never score 100 points in this league. Absolutely no chance.

    – Well that’s just silly to say no chance: he scored 77. You take this years 5×5 production and last year’s PP production, your at roughly 100 points

    – League scoring is up, if team plays better, and he plays with skilled wingers for a year, and 3×3:

    – I bet when we win Cups this is exactly what he does: 100 point 2nd C, lots of PP points, and teams can’t figure out whether to match power on him or vs CmD,

  27. godot10 says:

    Pink Socks: You had me until here.

    McD was better than last year by a significant margin.Draisaitl was also better than last season 5v5 production wise.The special teams limited McDavid from winning the Art Ross by 30 points, and kept Leon out of 90 point territory.

    McDavid and Draisaitl have to take some ownership and responsibility for the power play. They should have told McLellan and Woodcroft to eff off and coached it themselves.

  28. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965: McDavid was deathly ill for six weeks. Lost more than 10 lbs. By the time he was healthy again we were out of it. This may have been the most significant injury of the year.

    – Yeah, I don’t know how anyone can take issue with CmD not “exceeding expectations”. It’s not a criticism, he just wasn’t as dominant. He be just “normal awesome” He has another gear still

  29. godot10 says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Draisaitl will never score 100 points in this league. Absolutely no chance.

    If the Oilers had a power play last year, he would have been close to 100 at 21 years of age.

  30. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: McDavid was deathly ill for six weeks. Lost more than 10 lbs. By the time he was healthy again we were out of it. This may have been the most significant injury of the year.

    Don’t play sick. He should have taken a week off to get healthy. And take your damn Vitamin D next year.

  31. Richard S.S. says:

    How many Hockey Players regularly get Flu Shots? I think not as many as should. Connor McDavid might not have. As sick as he was, he put up very good numbers. When healthy he was simply amazing. I don’t think we’ve seen eveything yet.

    The Oilers had an exceptionally injury-plagued year that no single Player could turn around. But when the Oilers leak goals like they did, something must change. Connor McDavid will take an ordinary Team and drag it kicking and screaming into the Postseason. Getting to the Stanley Cup Final needs a lot more.

  32. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    godot10: McDavid and Draisaitl have to take some ownership and responsibility for the power play.They should have told McLellan and Woodcroft to eff off and coached it themselves.

    ‘Member when McDavid took the play board from the coaches and wrote up a play in like 5 seconds…
    And then proceeded to score on said play in the next shift…
    I member…

    But sadly, not what game or against what opponent… 😓

  33. jtblack says:

    is the KANE contract an overpay? His Point total last 6 years:

    54
    43
    35
    22* (hurt)
    41
    33*

    Good player? yes. $7 mil …. not sure

  34. godot10 says:

    jtblack:
    is the KANE contract an overpay?His Point total last 6 years:

    54
    43
    35
    22* (hurt)
    41
    33*

    Good player? yes. $7 mil ….not sure

    $7 million is around 55% of McDavid. Is asking for 55% of McDavid a lot?

    McDavid reset the salary scale.

    The middle to upper middle class in a hard cap league is a dangerous place to be for both the owner with the middle class player and the player.

    It is a really hard place to find value. Is the player a true driver of play, then the owner is likely to get a bargain. If he is not, than you have Lucic.

  35. VOR says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Well that’s just silly to say no chance: he scored 77.You take this years 5×5 production and last year’s PP production, your at roughly 100 points

    – League scoring is up, ifteam plays better, and he plays with skilled wingers for a year, and 3×3:

    – I bet when we win Cups this is exactly what he does: 100 point 2nd C, lots of PP points, and teams can’t figure out whether to match power on him or vs CmD,

    All due respect and having no desire to agree with Rafa Nadal because I am certain Drai will score a 100 points and some point in his NHL career but I think I remember Drai having 27 power play points in 2016-2017 and 59 even strength points in 2017-2018 which would add up to 86. I’m doing that from memory but I think you need to double check your math.

  36. Pink Socks says:

    godot10: McDavid and Draisaitl have to take some ownership and responsibility for the power play.They should have told McLellan and Woodcroft to eff off and coached it themselves.

    Anything would have been better. Gulutzan had an embarrasing PP last year too. According to a Flames site, Gulutzan had Troy Brouwer on the first PP unit and he produced virtually nothing. Checked it out and it’s true. 0 goals and 4 assists for his 1PP time (94 minutes). Last year he was also a drag, the least effective forward with >100 minutes of PP time. See: Lucic, Milan

    Seems like another coach that doesn’t adapt. Further, and I quote, “And the fact that it took them 51 games this season to realize that Dougie Hamilton was their best offensive defenceman and to finally try him out on the first powerplay unit was inexcusable.” Kind of like how long it took to play RNH alongside McDavid. Also, I wish we would have known how Auvitu would have turned out as a PP option.

    Oilers PP TOI/GP 17/18

    McDiety – 2:57
    Drai – 2:50
    Letestu – 2:16
    Lucic – 2:07
    RNH – 1:57
    ——
    OV2 – 0:25
    JP – 0:44

    Sigh. Gulutzan is cut from the same cloth as TMac. They are a perfect match. The only good news is that it likely leads to both being fired next summer.

  37. russ99 says:

    IMO the biggest issue with our powerplay is the play stops when it gets to McDavid in the right circle and everything slows down.

    He should be playing point with his vision, skating and passing skills, could create lots of openings with player and puck movement, as the opposition seems to over-react when he has the puck. Down low, this stifles the play, up high it could create many more open looks and good scoring chances.

    Add a natural shooter at LW or RW and this fixes many issues.

  38. digger50 says:

    Any more rumours about the Oil talking to Jake Virtanen?

  39. digger50 says:

    russ99:
    IMO the biggest issue with our powerplay is the play stops when it gets to McDavid in the right circle and everything slows down.

    He should be playing point with his vision, skating and passing skills, could create lots of openings with player and puck movement, as the opposition seems to over-react when he has the puck. Down low, this stifles the play, up high it could create many more open looks and good scoring chances.

    Add a natural shooter at LW or RW and this fixes many issues.

    I agree there is too much expectation for Connor to make the play from there, thus too easy for opposition to focus on him. Our set plays seem to have completely dried up.

    I look forward to seeing some fresh ideas.

  40. Lowetide says:

    digger50:
    Any more rumours about the Oil talking to Jake Virtanen?

    Virtanen RFA, no? I don’t think they can talk to him right now.

  41. jtblack says:

    godot10: $7 million is around 55% of McDavid.Is asking for 55% of McDavid a lot?

    McDavid reset the salary scale.

    The middle to upper middle class in a hard cap league is a dangerous place to be for both the owner with the middle class player and the player.

    It is a really hard place to find value.Is the player a true driver of play, then the owner is likely to get a bargain.If he is not, than you have Lucic.

    I agree. Its a slippery slope. Over 82 games, Kane is a 25G 25 A guy. maybe that WILL BE $7 Mil for UFA’s.

  42. digger50 says:

    Pink Socks: Anything would have been better.Gulutzan had an embarrasing PP last year too.According to a Flames site, Gulutzan had Troy Brouwer on the first PP unit and he produced virtually nothing.Checked it out and it’s true.0 goals and 4 assists for his 1PP time (94 minutes).Last year he was also a drag, the least effective forward with >100 minutes of PP time.See: Lucic, Milan

    Seems like another coach that doesn’t adapt.Further, and I quote, “And the fact that it took them 51 games this season to realize that Dougie Hamilton was their best offensive defenceman and to finally try him out on the first powerplay unit was inexcusable.”Kind of like how long it took to play RNH alongside McDavid.Also, I wish we would have known how Auvitu would have turned out as a PP option.

    Oilers PP TOI/GP 17/18

    McDiety – 2:57
    Drai – 2:50
    Letestu – 2:16
    Lucic – 2:07
    RNH – 1:57
    ——
    OV2 – 0:25
    JP – 0:44

    Sigh.Gulutzan is cut from the same cloth as TMac.They are a perfect match.The only good news is that it likely leads to both being fired next summer.

    It is worrisome if they both think alike, that’s not what we need.

    From afar, I kinda liked Gulutzan when he was in Calgary. He seemed more likely to support his players publically and keep the locker room door closed.

    So much good feedback on Manny, I really hope they have hired him; and they put him in a spot where he can have some impact.

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR: All due respect and having no desire to agree with Rafa Nadal because I am certain Drai will score a 100 points and some point in his NHL career but I think I remember Drai having 27 power play points in 2016-2017 and 59 even strength points in 2017-2018 which would add up to 86. I’m doing that from memory but I think you need to double check your math.

    – I didn’t do the maths either. But 86 points is “roughly “ 100 points imo.

  44. Pink Socks says:

    digger50:
    Any more rumours about the Oil talking to Jake Virtanen?

    Hope not since if they did we may lose that #10 pick if Bettman finds out. 😉

  45. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I didn’t do the maths either. But 86 points is “roughly “ 100 points imo.

    Well it’s also roughly 60 then too. But your point is very valid, Drai has every ability to put up 100 pts. My crystal ball says it will be in a year when McDavid gets hurt for an extended period of time and 29 steps up to lead the team.

  46. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – He had 8 more points than last year, yes: but relative to the his performance 2 years ago, he wasn’t as dominant in the league.I’m not hating on CmD, I just don’t think he was as good.

    – Two years ago he was unreal.108 points was an expected result IMO: and he delivered

    – I don’t think we disagree: had the special teams delivered, then both CMD and Drai would have done much better than previous years.

    – CmD winning the scoring title is now expected, Drai 75-85 is expected.

    – I suspect when the win the Cup both will do much more than expected, along with many other factors that contirbute to the Cup wins.

    – Like CMD with 130 points: 20 better than next guy, and Drai with a 40-65-105 season.That’s what I’m talking about in terms of seasons.

    105?? Yeah that sounds reasonable. Given that one player had that in the last two seasons

  47. SwedishPoster says:

    digger50: It is worrisome if they both think alike, that’s not what we need.

    From afar, I kinda liked Gulutzan when he was in Calgary. He seemed more likely to support his players publically and keep the locker room door closed.

    So much good feedback on Manny, I really hope they have hired him; and they put him in a spot where he can have some impact.

    I don’t trust coaches with good hair.

  48. Bos8 says:

    SwedishPoster: I don’t trust coaches with good hair.

    Amen brother.

    Ditto workout fanatics.

    Give me a fat guy, show me lazy, I’ll show you efficient.

  49. Cassandra says:

    godot10: $7 million is around 55% of McDavid.Is asking for 55% of McDavid a lot?

    McDavid reset the salary scale.

    The middle to upper middle class in a hard cap league is a dangerous place to be for both the owner with the middle class player and the player.

    It is a really hard place to find value.Is the player a true driver of play, then the owner is likely to get a bargain.If he is not, than you have Lucic.

    McDavid’s salary is irrelevant. In a salary cap system it is impossible for the scale to be reset. The amount of money in the system is fixed. If Kane gets more, then someone else will get less. The amount of dollars remains the same.

    Indeed, to the extent that the claim that McDavid reset the scale is relevant it is regarding RFA salaries. In which case, since Kane is a UFA, if it is true that McDavid reset the RFA scale, then that reduces the amount of money available for UFA contracts. In which case McDavid’s contract hurts people like Kane.

    Or when can go with the simpler explanation and say that nothing has changed other than the salary cap going up. Indeed, 7 M was exactly the salary predicted based on prior contract patterns.

  50. ashley says:

    I don’t buy all the roster explanations for Vegas’ success from the armchair GM’s. I think the impact of shuffling players on and off rosters is vastly overstated, but I understand why it gets so much attention. It feels like it is the only thing that can be controlled. Make some changes…better team.

    Vegas has a bunch of guys who would not have played a lot of hockey in their respective organizations this year. This is a systems/coaching success more than anything else. The narrative on how good these players are changes as their boxcars light up, but their boxcars are a product of the system they are playing, the one they have all bought into.

    This is what we need. A great coach to bring out the best from this very talented roster. If Chia is smart, he will have TMac on a short leash this season. If they are not in the top half of the WC at game 20, I can see TMac getting fired.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like how LT has finally switched and pencilled in Cooper Marody as the 4th line center over Brad Malone.

    I anticipate will see a signing like Brodziak or PRV (allowing Khaira to play 4C) so that Cooper starts in the AHL but I’ve got a feeling about Marody being an NHL player – not right away or even necessarily this year but I watched a few Michigan games after the trade and really liked his overall skillset (and he had a very nice start to his AHL career).

  52. dustrock says:

    Can someone paraphrase what Pronman said today on Lowetide?

  53. pts2pndr says:

    russ99:
    Vegas has at least 12 forwards that can play at least an NHL average game at both ends of the ice.

    What do we have? 3? 4?

    Who won the season series between these teams?

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    I believe the correct call on Jesse Puljujarvi is to play him on McDavid’s line, where he had success this past season. I haven’t listed him there because it’s unrealistic to expect Todd McLellan to elevate the young man. Expect at least a portion of the season to be spent on the No. 3 line.

    ———————————–

    I disagree, I think the right play of to play him with Drai – their goal share was awful but their possession stats were very nice in a small sample size last year.

    I think that is (or should be) the 2nd duo:

    Nuge/McDavid
    Leon/Puljijarvi
    Khaira/Strome

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    The book is not closed on the 2014 draft, there are still two prospects with potential NHL careers – Tyler Vesel and, moreso, Willie Lagesson.

    No sure things (and Vesel is a distant bell) but they are still real prospects.

  56. digger50 says:

    SwedishPoster: I don’t trust coaches with good hair.

    Well I don’t know that I ask my barber for a Tmac haircut.

  57. pts2pndr says:

    ashley:
    I don’t buy all the roster explanations for Vegas’ success from the armchair GM’s.I think the impact of shuffling players on and off rosters is vastly overstated, but I understand why it gets so much attention.It feels like it is the only thing that can be controlled.Make some changes…better team.

    Vegas has a bunch of guys who would not have played a lot of hockey in their respective organizations this year.This is a systems/coaching success more than anything else.The narrative on how good these players are changes as their boxcars light up, but their boxcars are a product of the system they are playing, the one they have all bought into.

    This is what we need.A great coach to bring out the best from this very talented roster.If Chia is smart, he will have TMac on a short leash this season.If they are not in the top half of the WC at game 20, I can see TMac getting fired.

    You have stated what many of us believe! Whats the over under on McLellan finishing the year as Oilers head Coach? How many games have they given him? Getting rid of the assistants is like being angry with a guy and slapping his sister!

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pink Socks: You had me until here.

    McD was better than last year by a significant margin.Draisaitl was also better than last season 5v5 production wise.The special teams limited McDavid from winning the Art Ross by 30 points, and kept Leon out of 90 point territory.

    I’m not sure if he was better or worse last year, not sure I have an opinion on it but, to be fair, McDavid himself and his lack of production was a reason for the poor special teams. Yes, the coaching/systems effected the players but the players themselves not being effective also counts.

    No doubt in my mind that McDavid will become an elite PP QB – maybe even this coming year.

  59. smellyglove says:

    Any interest in bringing Maroon back?

    3x$4 million?

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    I have zero interest in committing $4M with term to any veteran winger.

  61. Death By Misadventure says:

    Question for the group: are Yawney and Gulutzen “Chiarelli hires” or “MacLellan hires”?

    If it’s the former then I get it, if it’s the latter then… same as always.

  62. Death By Misadventure says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Draisaitl will never score 100 points in this league. Absolutely no chance.

    I smell a bet. *twists mustache thustly*

  63. Death By Misadventure says:

    Zack: Either way, I can’t see it being much worse.

    Jinxed us all hell, man. You do realize this is the Edmonton Oilers you speak off. Things could always get worse. We are the Cleveland Browns of hockey with prime time Tom Brady at quarterback and we still can’t make it within 20 points of a playoff spot. But yet things can get worse. I’ve seen it with my own eyes, man. And what I’ve seen, cannot be unseen.

  64. Yeti says:

    ashley: This is what we need. A great coach to bring out the best from this very talented roster. If Chia is smart, he will have TMac on a short leash this season. If they are not in the top half of the WC at game 20, I can see TMac getting fired.

    I fear that sacking your coach 20 games in – and bringing in a new one to implement entirely new systems mid-season with the pressure on – might not be beneficial for anyone. The time to make a coaching change was the summer. I imagine TMac gets the year… for better or for worse.

  65. Death By Misadventure says:

    russ99: IMO the biggest issue with our powerplay is the play stops when it gets to McDavid in the right circle and everything slows down.

    Whether it’s by design or others just Connor watching, the Oilers PP has the least amount of puck and player movement of any team in the NHL. You don’t notice it in any one game, but it’s very apparently once you take an Oiler break and watch other teams regularly. I have no math to prove this, just a perception.

  66. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Death By Misadventure: I smell a bet. *twists mustache thustly*

    – Well last year, I said to WG that I would bet a lot of money that a bunch of wingers: sleppy, caggs, pool etc would score more than Jagr. Wood be like: “lets put this bad boy into escrow”

    – Anyway, whether the point total is 95, 100 or 105, depends on scoring in the league. My premise is scoring is going up, and our team is going to be better, and score more goals with better players

    – 2 years ago they were both top-10 scoring. When we compete for Cups, I suspect both will be top-10, and that they will be North of 100 points. Backstrom, Sedin, Malkin: I see him getting to these type point totals on a good team with good support, special teams and a scoring league

    – Drai’s point total is pretty elite for his age, and this year less so with CmD, and not great wingers

  67. Death By Misadventure says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I didn’t do the maths either. But 86 points is “roughly “ 100 points imo.

    It’s actually 86.00%. No need to be “roughly”, Kinger. Get it together man, there’s a long day of commenting still ahead of us. 🙂

  68. Death By Misadventure says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Well last year, I said to WG that I would bet a lot of money that a bunch of wingers: sleppy, caggs, pool etc would score more than Jagr.Wood be like: “lets put this bad boy into escrow”

    – Anyway, whether the point total is 95, 100 or 105, depends on scoring in the league.My premise is scoring is going up, and our team is going to be better, and score more goals with better players

    – 2 years ago they were both top-10 scoring.When we compete for Cups, I suspect both will be top-10, and that they will be North of 100 points.Backstrom, Sedin, Malkin: I see him getting to these type point totals on a good team with good support, special teams and a scoring league

    – Drai’s point total is pretty elite for his age, and this year less so with CmD, and not great wingers

    For the record I agree with your premise here. Watching Drai, you can tell he hasn’t quit put it all together. Yet. When it clicks, 5×5, PP, game in and game out, Top 10 in league scoring maybe too low of an expectation. Could Drai be a consistent threat to be Top 5 in scoring, considering he will be sheltered by Mcdavid for the next 7 years but benefit from playing on the same PP? If so, he realistically could be a threat to get to 100 points in at least one of those seasons.

  69. Pechetr says:

    Zack,

    Question: How many years did the Oilers make the playoff in the last decade before Chiarelli?
    Answer: 0 for 9 or 0%

    With Chiarelli? 1 for 3 or 33%

    Question How many years did the Oilers make the playoffs with Taylor Hall on the roster?
    Answer: 0 for 6 or 0%

    Without Taylor Hall? 1 for 2 or 50%

    Now I am no analytics guy but numbers don’t lie.

  70. Richard S.S. says:

    Cam Talbot is a very good Goaltender. If not overworked as he regularly has been, he could be even better. A lot has been said on Backup Goaltender Mikko Koskinen. Until the skates hit the ice for an extended period of time, all that rhetoric is just so much hot air.

    The Defense should be much better with just decent health, which could be better. The Oilers believe they need a puck-moving D in their top-4, preferably RHD. If they can acquire a #1 D stud, so much the better, but it’s not the biggest need, but a puck-mover is. IMO the Oilers need both, but how that fits under the Cap is unknown.

    Acquiring Offense can be a tricky slope with all that is needed – big, fast, smart, shoots well. One thing to consider, since Milan Lucic has been on the Team, Connor McDavid has not missed a game. Connor’s only other year on the Oilers was without Lucic. He missed almost half the Season due injury (after being assaulted). Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are working out well on 1st Line. Who’s big enough, fast enough and a shooter to play on that line? Leo Draisaitl looks like he can drive a line and score big-time. Without the right caliber of talent on the rest of this line, Leon might not be able to do all he needs to. Winning games is one thing, getting to the Final is something very different. McDavid can play with tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum and still win awards. The Players that Leon needs must be better. That could be a problem with the projected Cap.

  71. Death By Misadventure says:

    Pechetr: Now I am no analytics guy

    You should have started with that.

    I kid. I kid. Not trying to be rude. Just trying to be funny.

  72. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: McDavid’s salary is irrelevant.In a salary cap system it is impossible for the scale to be reset.The amount of money in the system is fixed.If Kane gets more, then someone else will get less.The amount of dollars remains the same.

    Cass, this is not accurate. If every team used exactly 100% of their available cap, and the cap never changed, then yes, you are correct. But the amount of money is not fixed. It fluctuates year over year, and what an organization does with its available cap is never definite.

    SJ may have a $70m cap hit next season prior to signing Evander Kane. If he signs for $5m/year and SJ has $75m, they have $5m to sign someone else or hold it for a mid-season acquisition. If he signs for $7m, it doesn’t necessarily take away what some other player is given, it may just reduce the salary of the player they attempt to acquire at the deadline.

    The only instance in which the money would actually be fixed would be in the world of a single owner of the entire NHL, and each team operated as a subsidiary and each would be required to have the exact same costs.

  73. Pink Socks says:

    Yeti: I fear that sacking your coach 20 games in – and bringing in a new one to implement entirely new systems mid-season with the pressure on – might not be beneficial for anyone. The time to make a coaching change was the summer. I imagine TMac gets the year… for better or for worse.

    Worked for Pittsburgh. Twice.

  74. bendelson says:

    Pechetr: Question: How many years did the Oilers make the playoff in the last decade before Chiarelli?
    Answer: 0 for 9 or 0%
    With Chiarelli? 1 for 3 or 33%
    Question How many years did the Oilers make the playoffs with Taylor Hall on the roster?
    Answer: 0 for 6 or 0%
    Without Taylor Hall? 1 for 2 or 50%

    Is that you, Woodguy?

  75. Yeti says:

    Pechetr: Now I am no analytics guy

    No shit.

  76. godot10 says:

    smellyglove:
    Any interest in bringing Maroon back?

    3x$4 million?

    Impossible with Lucic on the roster. And it is impossible to get rid of Lucic.

  77. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    This is going to be a long ass summer. Anyway question from a layfan:

    The Oilers need more roster players who are also NHL players. Second, they need to ‘restock’ Bakersfield. A paradox.

    But many agree the Oilers have sufficient top-tier players, its at the fringe of every position where the club needs work in order to improve.

    So why isn’t there more conversation about trading #10 down for a roster player and a second rounder? Let the scouts earn their keep with two 2nds and slot in a much needed NHL calibre winger.

  78. godot10 says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    Question for the group: are Yawney and Gulutzen “Chiarelli hires” or “MacLellan hires”?

    If it’s the former then I get it, if it’s the latter then… same as always.

    They are all McLellan hires…Yawney, Gulutzen, and Woodcroft to Bakersfield. Chiarelli has no one in the organization as a competent alternative to McLellan. For a head coach who stunk out the joint two of three seasons, he certainly won the spring.

  79. godot10 says:

    Death By Misadventure: It’s actually 86.00%. No need to be “roughly”, Kinger. Get it together man, there’s a long day of commenting still ahead of us.

    It wasn’t normalized for games played due to Draisaitl’s early season injury…so the 86 points is really more than 86 points

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like an official announcement on the coaching staff will happen tomorrow (per Reid Wilkins).

  81. godot10 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    This is going to be a long ass summer. Anyway question from a layfan:

    The Oilers need more roster players who are also NHL players. Second, theyneed to ‘restock’ Bakersfield. A paradox.

    But many agree the Oilers have sufficient top-tier players, its at the fringe of every position where the club needs work in order to improve.

    So why isn’t there more conversation about trading #10 down for a roster player and a second rounder? Let the scouts earn their keep with two 2nds and slot in a much needed NHL calibre winger.

    Keeping #10OV is crucial to contending in the medium term, when emerging cheap players will be required.

    There are myriads of other ways to fix this roster without trading away high draft picks, which only steals from the future.

    What the Oilers need is for their pro scouts to do their job, and have the bottom of half of every NHL roster properly ranked and the top half of every AHL team properly ranked.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Swift Current Broncos are having a presser tomorrow to announce personel changes.

    This must have to do with Viveiros.

    No guarantee it’s the Oilers organization he’s heading to but the timing sure does seem to lineup.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Swift Current Broncos are having a presser tomorrow to announce personel changes.

    This must have to do with Viveiros.

    No guarantee it’s the Oilers organization he’s heading to but the timing sure does seem to lineup.

  84. Jordan says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Cam Talbot is a very good Goaltender.If not overworked as he regularly has been, he could be even better.

    I strongly doubt his difficulties this year are connected with how much he’s played.

    I strongly beleive his difficulties are connected with having twin babies at home.

    Does anyone have the home / road splits for goalies last year?

    I looked around but google failed me.

    They could really help either back up my premise / tell me I’m full of it.

  85. texmex says:

    Seravalli:

    All indications are #Oilers will announce Glen Gulutzan, Manny Viveiros and Trent Yawney as Todd McLellan’s new assistant coaches as soon as tomorrow. Jay Woodcroft now head coach in AHL Bakersfield; Jim Johnson was let go in April; Ian Herbers back at U of A on July 1.

  86. --hudson-- says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The Swift Current Broncos are having a presser tomorrow to announce personel changes.

    This must have to do with Viveiros.

    No guarantee it’s the Oilers organization he’s heading to but the timing sure does seem to lineup.

    Lines up with the Broncos being eliminated from the Memorial Cup. Rishaug probably thinks Viveiros is mentally weak for not getting his team to show up in the big tourney.

  87. deardylan says:

    Dear Analytics crowd here on Lowetide can you please crunch the stats and give us your take on who will win the Stanley Cup. What do the numbers say? and what does your gut say?

    #bythenumbers #OvieDeservesIt #LasVegasBaby!

  88. digger50 says:

    smellyglove:
    Any interest in bringing Maroon back?

    3x$4 million?

    As it sits today, this roster looks better with Patrick Maroon on it.

    I know he’s not first choice. Only because e could use more speed. But Maroon would give us 20 goals, and those are generally not Connor goals, those are dirty netfront goals and we need that.

    Rattie, Nuge, Connor, Leon, Jessie, Yammer – none of these guys can own the front of the net like Maroon.

    Two other candidates, Khaira xand Kassian are unlikely to see top six minutes.

    The last candidate , Lucic is a complete unknown for next year.

    Last year with Maroon gone and Lucic slumping the role fell to …..Caggiula.

    So the common protest is we are too big, heavy slow down the left wing. True. But Pontus or Drake skating as fast as they can are unlikely to get 20 goals.

    Unless the Oil find a better option, a two way winger, with speed, who can pot 20 goals, then I’d like to see Maroon back.

    And then OP shows up and tells us there’s not enough money to pay Maroon because we paid the goalie. So seems unlikely we’ll see Maroon.

    Edit: We need a mini Tkachuck. In my previous comment I was asking about Virtanen. There was a poster weeks ago who had spoken to a friend and learned or suggested Oilers were interested in him. I think Virtanen might be a guy we could get for cheap and play that Tkachuk role.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Well, it is true, unless Nurse comes in well below four and/or we aren’t bringing Strome back, we would need to dispose of existing cap in order to acquire a $4M player.

    After signing the relevant RFAs, we have about an $80M committed roster (which includes adding to forwards at $900K (Brodziak, PRV) and has Marody on the roster.

    Substitute one of those player for a $4M contract and its likely not cap compliant depending on what the official upper limit is.

    This is also only taking in to account Jesse’s bonuses in the amount of $1.25M

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    uge ($6M) / McDavid ($12.5M) / Rattie ($800K)

    Khaira ($675K) / Drai ($8.5M) / Puljijarvi ($925K)

    Lucic ($6M) / Strome ($3M) / Aberg ($650K)

    Caggulia ($1.35M) / Brodziak ($950K) / Kassian ($1.95K)

    Magnus ($950K) / Marody ($925K)

    ———————-

    Klefbom ($4.167M) / Larsson ($4.167M
    Nurse ($4M) / Russell ($4M)
    Sekera ($5.5M) / Benning (1.65M)

    Gryba ($900K)

    —————————–
    Talbot ($4.167M)
    Koskinen ($2.5M)

    ———————————
    The above lineup has two outside acquisition, 12th/13th forwards for less than $1M each.

    The cap hit for the 23 man roster (which includes Marody, Rattie) is $77.5M

    That doesn’t account for the Pouliot buyout of $1.33M which will take it to $78.8M.

    It doesn’t take in to account any of Jesse’s bonuses which are maxed at apx. $2.5M so lets give a cushion of $1.25M which essentially takes us to $80M.

    So, we are at $80M without any material acquisition.

    So, any acquisition will need cap going out.

  91. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The book is not closed on the 2014 draft, there are still two prospects with potential NHL careers – Tyler Vesel and, moreso, Willie Lagesson.

    No sure things (and Vesel is a distant bell) but they are still real prospects.

    I believe Oiler fans will like Lagesson! I see him as a left shot Larsson. He comes with a healthy dose of nasty! The front of the Oiler net will be a much less friendly place with him on the ice!

  92. pts2pndr says:

    godot10: They are all McLellan hires…Yawney, Gulutzen, and Woodcroft to Bakersfield.Chiarelli has no one in the organization as a competent alternative to McLellan.For a head coach who stunk out the joint two of three seasons, he certainly won the spring.

    At this point in time and with the apparent disconect between McL and Chiarelli, a competent coach from outside the organization is the route to go! I believe it will happen however unfortunatley too late in the season to save this season!

  93. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    uge ($6M) / McDavid ($12.5M) / Rattie ($800K)

    Khaira ($675K) / Drai ($8.5M) / Puljijarvi ($925K)

    Lucic ($6M) / Strome ($3M) / Aberg ($650K)

    Caggulia ($1.35M) / Brodziak ($950K) / Kassian ($1.95K)

    Magnus ($950K) / Marody ($925K)

    ———————-

    Klefbom ($4.167M) / Larsson ($4.167M
    Nurse ($4M) / Russell ($4M)
    Sekera ($5.5M) / Benning (1.65M)

    Gryba ($900K)

    —————————–
    Talbot ($4.167M)
    Koskinen ($2.5M)

    ———————————
    The above lineup has two outside acquisition, 12th/13th forwards for less than $1M each.

    The cap hit for the 23 man roster (which includes Marody, Rattie) is $77.5M

    That doesn’t account for the Pouliot buyout of $1.33M which will take it to $78.8M.

    It doesn’t take in to account any of Jesse’s bonuses which are maxed at apx. $2.5M so lets give a cushion of $1.25M which essentially takes us to $80M.

    So, we are at $80M without any material acquisition.

    So, any acquisition will need cap going out.

    Strome I don’t think can come back. We need his cap hit for more useful items and that line of Lucic Strome and Aberg is… sad. PC is going to have to ask all of the NMC players to waive and find a way out of either Russell or Lucic. Pretty bleak outlook. But hey, at least we have a 6’6″ unproven backup goalie for $2.5m in the tightest cap year.

  94. Pink Socks says:

    pts2pndr: I believe Oiler fans will like Lagesson! I see him as a left shot Larsson.

    Hmmmm, maybe we can trade him for a right shot Hall?

  95. Lowetide says:

    deardylan:
    Dear Analytics crowd here on Lowetide can you please crunch the stats and give us your take on who will win the Stanley Cup.What do the numbers say? and what does your gut say?

    #bythenumbers #OvieDeservesIt #LasVegasBaby!

    I think it’s close, Washington has the edge in shot differential but Fleury has been lights out. I like the Vegas demon forecheck but the Capitals are maybe a hair better in defensive depth (but the end of their blue depth chart is probably the weakest set in the final).

    I keep thinking FLeury is going to regress but we’re seven games from the end of the highway.

  96. pts2pndr says:

    deardylan:
    Dear Analytics crowd here on Lowetide can you please crunch the stats and give us your take on who will win the Stanley Cup.What do the numbers say? and what does your gut say?

    #bythenumbers #OvieDeservesIt #LasVegasBaby!

    Washington in 6 games and President Trump will take all the credit! Make Washington great again!

  97. rope-a-dope says:

    Unrelated to the topic at hand but wanted to mention how critical physicality has been for Washington in the series over Tampa. It’s not all speed speed speed, you still need a team that can physically punish opponents.

  98. pts2pndr says:

    Pink Socks: Hmmmm, maybe we can trade him for a right shot Hall?

    Hall was a victim of the Dallas Eakins hire! I believe certain upper management was still bitter over Eakins failure and chose his differences with Hall as the problem. Sometimes grudges are settled in very foolish ways!

  99. dustrock says:

    Washington destroyed TB on 5v5. Just killed them. I wonder if they’ll be able to do the same thing to Vegas. If TB didn’t have the PP going, no way that series goes 7 games.

  100. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Further to my previous comment, the bottom 6 is this team’s biggest concern.

    Lucic – Strome – Aberg
    Caggiula – Brodziak – Kassian

    Carpenter – Eakin – Tuch
    Nosek – Bellemare – Reaves

    Burakovsky – Eller – Connolly
    Stephenson – Beagle – DSP

    Lucic = Carpenter <<<< Burakovsky
    Strome = Eakin <<<< Eller
    Aberg << Tuch = Connolly
    Caggiula = Stephenson < Nosek
    Brodziak = Bellemare = Beagle
    Kassian = Reaves = DSP

    Those 3rd and 4th lines are huge reason's for each team's success. I remember one game last season out of 82 where we had an excellent 4th line performance. Kassian and Khaira were on fire, don't remember much else, just that it happened.

    Caps and Knights 3rd and 4th lines are a factor in every single game. If the Oilers are in game 7 which one of Lucic Strome or Aberg are stepping up? The more I watch the playoffs and compare it to the non-McDavid/Drai/RNH shitshow we endured last season the more I have difficulty finding a silver lining.

    The Knights put together their bottom 6 out of everyone else's scraps. There is no reason why PC & team can't do it. In fact, based on PC being much more proficient at the little deals, he should be able to piece together a very useful bottom 6.

  101. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    uge ($6M) / McDavid ($12.5M) / Rattie ($800K)

    Khaira ($675K) / Drai ($8.5M) / Puljijarvi ($925K)

    Lucic ($6M) / Strome ($3M) / Aberg ($650K)

    Caggulia ($1.35M) / Brodziak ($950K) / Kassian ($1.95K)

    Magnus ($950K) / Marody ($925K)

    ———————-

    Klefbom ($4.167M) / Larsson ($4.167M
    Nurse ($4M) / Russell ($4M)
    Sekera ($5.5M) / Benning (1.65M)

    Gryba ($900K)

    —————————–
    Talbot ($4.167M)
    Koskinen ($2.5M)

    ———————————
    The above lineup has two outside acquisition, 12th/13th forwards for less than $1M each.

    The cap hit for the 23 man roster (which includes Marody, Rattie) is $77.5M

    That doesn’t account for the Pouliot buyout of $1.33M which will take it to $78.8M.

    It doesn’t take in to account any of Jesse’s bonuses which are maxed at apx. $2.5M so lets give a cushion of $1.25M which essentially takes us to $80M.

    So, we are at $80M without any material acquisition.

    So, any acquisition will need cap going out.

    I admire your patience OP. It must be incredibly frustrating that no matter how many times you point it out or how many ways you explain it, some people just can’t seem to grasp the concept of a Cap Limit.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pink Socks: Anything would have been better.Gulutzan had an embarrasing PP last year too.According to a Flames site, Gulutzan had Troy Brouwer on the first PP unit and he produced virtually nothing.Checked it out and it’s true.0 goals and 4 assists for his 1PP time (94 minutes).Last year he was also a drag, the least effective forward with >100 minutes of PP time.See: Lucic, Milan

    Seems like another coach that doesn’t adapt.Further, and I quote, “And the fact that it took them 51 games this season to realize that Dougie Hamilton was their best offensive defenceman and to finally try him out on the first powerplay unit was inexcusable.”Kind of like how long it took to play RNH alongside McDavid.Also, I wish we would have known how Auvitu would have turned out as a PP option.

    Oilers PP TOI/GP 17/18

    McDiety – 2:57
    Drai – 2:50
    Letestu – 2:16
    Lucic – 2:07
    RNH – 1:57
    ——
    OV2 – 0:25
    JP – 0:44

    Sigh.Gulutzan is cut from the same cloth as TMac.They are a perfect match.The only good news is that it likely leads to both being fired next summer.

    Manny will coach O, Yawney D, and Gulatzan will run practices. Anybody shows up not ready watch out!

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jordan: I strongly doubt his difficulties this year are connected with how much he’s played.

    I strongly beleive his difficulties are connected with having twin babies at home.

    Does anyone have the home / road splits for goalies last year?

    I looked around but google failed me.

    They could really help either back up my premise / tell me I’m full of it.

    It doesn’t matter. It’s not like he’s the first new father to play in the NHL.

    Many here have toughed out work on little sleep and I doubt very many except WG and LT make 4 M US a year. Can hire a platoon of 24 hour a day nannies with that scratch. And he can’t get fired and lose his pay.

  104. godot10 says:

    digger50:

    Edit: We need a mini Tkachuck. In my previous comment I was asking about Virtanen. There was a poster weeks ago who had spoken to a friend and learned or suggested Oilers were interested in him. I think Virtanen might be a guy we could get for cheap and play that Tkachuk role.

    The Oilers had a mini-Tkachuk and a player better than Virtanen in Tyler Pitlick. They threw him away.

  105. digger50 says:

    RonnieB: I admire your patience OP. It must be incredibly frustrating that no matter how many times you point it out or how many ways you explain it, some people just can’t seem to grasp the concept of a Cap Limit.

    I don’t think you grasp the concept Ronnie.

    It is precisely because OP has these repetitive posts that it is fun to take the Mickey out of him. It’s just fun.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    is the KANE contract an overpay?His Point total last 6 years:

    54
    43
    35
    22* (hurt)
    41
    33*

    Good player? yes. $7 mil ….not sure

    Turning 27, highest points 57 eight years ago. GMs cannot stop lusting after the dream of skilled tough guys, even if the players aren’t that skilled or tough. 7 M is a bad deal, glad they did it.

  107. digger50 says:

    godot10: The Oilers had a mini-Tkachuk and a player better than Virtanen in Tyler Pitlick.They threw him away.

    I liked Pitlick and his speed, but he liked circles, he didn’t own the front of the net.

    Your not pushing the conversation forward here. What about Virtanen?

  108. godot10 says:

    rope-a-dope:
    Unrelated to the topic at hand but wanted to mention how critical physicality has been for Washington in the series over Tampa. It’s not all speed speed speed, you still need a team that can physically punish opponents.

    Counting chickens before they have hatched, I see.

    And then you are looking at one season in isolation. Chicago 3 cups, Pittsburgh 2 Cups suggests otherwise.

    If Werenski is healthy, does Washington get by Columbus?

    Washington has desperation on their side. Everyone knows the team cannot be kept together after this season. They are playing freer than they ever have.

  109. godot10 says:

    RonnieB: I admire your patience OP. It must be incredibly frustrating that no matter how many times you point it out or how many ways you explain it, some people just can’t seem to grasp the concept of a Cap Limit.

    Chiarelli can’t manage a cap. Why should we? -).

  110. Biggus Dickus says:

    godot10: Counting chickens before they have hatched, I see.

    And then you are looking at one season in isolation.Chicago 3 cups, Pittsburgh 2 Cups suggests otherwise.

    If Werenski is healthy, does Washington get by Columbus?

    Washington has desperation on their side.Everyone knows the team cannot be kept together after this season. They are playing freer than they ever have.

    I had CBus in the finals vs. the Jets.

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Well last year, I said to WG that I would bet a lot of money that a bunch of wingers: sleppy, caggs, pool etc would score more than Jagr. Wood be like: “lets put this bad boy into escrow”

    You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – 2 years ago they were both top-10 scoring. When we compete for Cups, I suspect both will be top-10, and that they will be North of 100 points. Backstrom, Sedin, Malkin: I see him getting to these type point totals on a good team with good support, special teams and a scoring league

    Name 2 players who played on separate lines who were both top 10 in scoring who weren’t Crosby and Malkin?

    The top 10 is populated by the best players and very good players who play with them.

    Drai isn’t Malkin. I don’t think he’s Scheifele or Barkov either.

    Doesn’t make him a bad player, I like him, I just don’t expect crazy totals from him away from McDavid.

    The fact that he’ll play PP1 w/ McDavid will help, but won’t get him top 10m

    I’m willing to bet a Woodguy or two per year on this or a more substantial amount via escrow.

    You don’t score on 100% of the shots you don’t take.

    🙂

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    IMO Virtanen, Pitlick, Hendricks, Lander, Pouliot are not the answer.

    They need bottom 6 players that can move and understand and execute their role (win their 5v5 battles and special teams) and show up every game.

    Reider also isn’t a great option as mentioned for top 6 because he doesn’t score enough on the ice and isn’t also a stalwart defender.

    They need cost effective players that get points and win the goal share and possession battle. PC has tried 2 but his fatal mistake was neither were fast enough for the game now.

  114. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – 2 years ago they were both top-10 scoring. When we compete for Cups, I suspect both will be top-10, and that they will be North of 100 points. Backstrom, Sedin, Malkin: I see him getting to these type point totals on a good team with good support, special teams and a scoring league

    Name 2 players who played on separate lines who were both top 10 in scoring who weren’t Crosby and Malkin?

    The top 10 is populated by the best players and very good players who play with them.

    Drai isn’t Malkin.I don’t think he’s Scheifeleor Barkov either.

    Doesn’t make him a bad player, I like him, I just don’t expect crazy totals from him away from McDavid.

    The fact that he’ll play PP1 w/ McDavid will help, but won’t get him top 10m

    I’m willing to bet a Woodguy or two per year on this or a more substantial amount via escrow.

    You don’t score on 100% of the shots you don’t take.

    The problem with this bet is it could be 10 years down the road, unlikely, on another team. More likely is McDavid gets hurt, misses a lot of time, and we have some very good wingers who help carry the load like they did in Colorado.

  115. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think Drai’s as good as Scheifele. I’d like to see him with Laine/Wheeler/Ehlers/Connor on his wings instead of Caggiula/Aberg/Lucic/Cammalleri/raw Pulju.

    and with Buff/Trouba/Morrisey/etc. feeding him the puck

  116. LadiesloveSmid says:

    godot10: The Oilers had a mini-Tkachuk and a player better than Virtanen in Tyler Pitlick.They threw him away.

    He walked away…..? After not playing 100 aggregate games across 3 seasons?

    Ludicrous man

  117. Munny says:

    godot10: The Oilers had a mini-Tkachuk and a player better than Virtanen in Tyler Pitlick.They threw him away.

    #Fakenews

  118. The Trade Guy says:

    Duke Nuke’em owns. That was a cool dad move and worth a displeased wife.

  119. Oilman99 says:

    Cassandra:
    Interesting article at the athletic on the alternate universe NHL with no Las Vegas and the players returned to their original teams.

    https://theathletic.com/365674/2018/05/24/entering-an-alternate-timeline-what-would-this-season-have-looked-like-if-the-golden-knights-didnt-exist/

    Good quote:

    “Florida being the team most hurt by the expansion process is not surprising and that’s far from hindsight either. Any hockey person with a clue (read: not Dale Tallon) could’ve told you giving up a 30-goal scorer making $750,000 for another season as a sweetener to unload a 50 point player in order to protect a couple of third pairing defencemen was extremely dumb at the time. Now? It’s a catastrophic mistake, one that somehow has not got the man in charge fired. “Thank god he’s back.”

    Compared to the average team, the Panthers likely lost seven standings points in the expansion process and missed the playoffs by… one point. It’s one of the most colossal front office failures the league has seen in years, arguably on par with trading an MVP calibre player for a second pairing defender. How Tallon still has a job running the Panthers after this colossal blunder is almost as baffling as his decision-making process that day.”

    Thank god for Dale Tallon, he makes PC look like a genius.

  120. Harpers Hair says:

    LadiesloveSmid: He walked away…..? After not playing 100 aggregate games across 3 seasons?

    Ludicrous man

    No he didn’t. He wanted a one way contract and the Oilers didn’t offer one. Dallas did.

  121. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I like how LT has finally switched and pencilled in Cooper Marody as the 4th line center over Brad Malone.

    I anticipate will see a signing like Brodziak or PRV (allowing Khaira to play 4C) so that Cooper starts in the AHL but I’ve got a feeling about Marody being an NHL player – not right away or even necessarily this year but I watched a few Michigan games after the trade and really liked his overall skillset (and he had a very nice start to his AHL career).

    Signing Brodziak is like bringing back Cammalari, past due date,and a physical game has taken its toll on him.

  122. Oilman99 says:

    godot10: The Oilers had a mini-Tkachuk and a player better than Virtanen in Tyler Pitlick.They threw him away.

    If Pittlick had been able to make it through a full season without injury , he probably would still be an Oiler.

  123. Andy Dufresne says:

    dguy v2.0,

    I get your point, but you put Draisaitl between Kyle Conner and Blake Wheeler and he probably outperforms Scheifle

    or between Huberdeau and Dadonov

    as opposed to
    Lucic and Caggs
    JJ and JP
    etc

    Edit: history aside(ie minutes played with McDavid) it could be argued that McDavid actually hurts Draisaitls situation in that because of McDavid we cant afford wingers for Leon. Of course its actually Milan a $6m that really hurts the situation.

    I think Draisaitl would be the number one center on many teams in the NHL.

  124. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – 2 years ago they were both top-10 scoring. When we compete for Cups, I suspect both will be top-10, and that they will be North of 100 points. Backstrom, Sedin, Malkin: I see him getting to these type point totals on a good team with good support, special teams and a scoring league

    Name 2 players who played on separate lines who were both top 10 in scoring who weren’t Crosby and Malkin?

    Drai isn’t Malkin.

    Doesn’t make him a bad player, I like him, I just don’t expect crazy totals from him away from McDavid.

    The fact that he’ll play PP1 w/ McDavid will help, but won’t get him top 10m

    I’m willing to bet a Woodguy or two per year on this or a more substantial amount via escrow.

    – I think CmD and Drai can be Crosby Malkin v. 2.0 and then some

    – Malkin as great as he is, he missed a lot of games from Drai’s current age onwards

    – Even if you are right in asserting that Drai won’t be as good as Malkin (I disagree), I think a few factors auger well for a 100+ top-10 scoring 2C: the points from 3×3. The trend to goal;’s increasing continues, the possibility that Drai gets better wingers than Malkin, the CmD dynamic insofar as Drai doesn’t get power vs power as much, the potential for the sickest PP in a generation with CmD, Drai, RNH, a right hammer, and a net presence

    – I think if I offereed to escrow 100K for Drai scoring 100 points in a season once, you would be crazy to take that bet straight up.

    – I think betting as you suggest that for more than half the season going forward Drai will score 100 points, I’d be crazy to take that bet

    – I’m pretty sure though that when this team is competing for a Cup, you are going to have an “inflation adjusted” 100 point season from Drai, and more points from CmD

    – I’m also pretty sure that heaven forbid CmD misses a season, Drai would be a 100 point player on a decent Oiler team

    – I don’t think there is a team in this league that has two players who could both be top-10 scorers on different lines: except us: malkin and crosby are both over 30 now

  125. deardylan says:

    Lowetide: deardylan:
    Dear Analytics crowd here on Lowetide can you please crunch the stats and give us your take on who will win the Stanley Cup.What do the numbers say? and what does your gut say?
    #bythenumbers #OvieDeservesIt #LasVegasBaby!

    I think it’s close, Washington has the edge in shot differential but Fleury has been lights out. I like the Vegas demon forecheck but the Capitals are maybe a hair better in defensive depth (but the end of their blue depth chart is probably the weakest set in the final).
    I keep thinking FLeury is going to regress but we’re seven games from the end of the highway.

    Vegas demon forecheck! Looking forward to that.

    7 Games…wonder who will make THE game 7 save and score THAT goal.

  126. Oilman99 says:

    Pink Socks: Strome I don’t think can come back.We need his cap hit for more useful items and that line of Lucic Strome and Aberg is… sad.PC is going to have to ask all of the NMC players to waive and find a way out of either Russell or Lucic.Pretty bleak outlook.But hey, at least we have a 6’6″ unproven backup goalie for $2.5m in the tightest cap year.

    Letting Strome walk is ludicrous. Sign him, and if you don’t want him, use him as trade piece with whoever to get a useful upgrade. To have traded Eberly for nothing is rediculous.

  127. deardylan says:

    pts2pndr:
    PTS2PNDR

    PTS2PNDR 6 Games. No matter what we will get the first stanley cup for one of those teams. I am cheering for Vegas and will be there in person for Game 7 and hope Ovechkin wins in his final game in the NHL in 2025 before he heads to KHL for his 40s-50s. (he is still young and like me had grey hair at 32–no ageism bro!!)

  128. Melvis says:

    Restore my system….all you musicologists. This is driving me crazy. I heard this overhead at CanTire earlier today. It was a big hit a year, or two or three ago. Everytime I got in the car, I caught the tail end and never did catch the name of act.

    The refrain goes:

    All I’m gonna ( or wanna do) is dance, dance , dance. It’s upbeat and contains a deep, heavy groove.

    Problem being…there are about a million dance, dance dance tunes. None of which match.

    C’mon men. Help me.

  129. Melvis says:

    Also female. Kind of a flat nasal tone.

  130. flyfish1168 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I think CmD and Drai can be Crosby Malkin v. 2.0 and then some

    – Malkin as great as he is, he missed a lot of games from Drai’s current age onwards

    – Even if you are right in asserting that Drai won’t be as good as Malkin (I disagree), I think a few factors auger well for a 100+ top-10 scoring 2C: the points from 3×3.The trend to goal;’s increasing continues, the possibility that Drai gets better wingers than Malkin, the CmD dynamic insofar as Drai doesn’t get power vs power as much,the potential for the sickest PP in a generation with CmD, Drai, RNH, a right hammer, and a net presence

    – I think if I offereed to escrow 100K for Drai scoring 100 points in a season once, you would be crazy to take that bet straight up.

    – I think betting as you suggest that for more than half the season going forward Drai will score 100 points, I’d be crazy to take that bet

    – I’m pretty sure though that when this team is competing for a Cup, you are going to have an “inflation adjusted” 100 point season from Drai, and more points from CmD

    – I’m also pretty sure that heaven forbid CmD misses a season, Drai would be a 100 point player on a decent Oiler team

    – I don’t think there is a team in this league that has two players who could both be top-10 scorers on different lines: except us:malkin and crosby are both over 30 now

    Malkin couldn’t even make NHL top ever 100. NHL obviously doesn’t think he is that good. What a joke.

    JMHO. I believe Malkin is one of the top players in the tier just below the generational players. Leon has much to prove before I can say he is going to have a better career then Evgeni.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Signing Brodziak is like bringing back Cammalari, past due date,and a physical game has taken its toll on him.

    It doesn’t necessarily have to be Brodziak but we need replacements for Slepyshev, Pakarinan and Cammaleri who had cap hits of $925K, $725K and $1M.

    We need to find 3 replacements at, approximately, he same cap hit.

    No, there is no money to sign Derek Ryan

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whoa, to disagree that Drai won’t become quite the player the Malkin has become is, in my opinion and with respect, a very biased opinion – we are talking about a Hall of Famer here – I love me some Drai but I don’t imagine we will ever be as proficient as Evgeni Malkin.

  133. stevebergeron97 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur,

    Philly owns the 14th and 19th overall selections in this Years draft. Is there any scenario where they move to 10th, ship 19th and a prospect to Edmonton? They have one of, if not the deepest prospect pool in the NHL. Would they dangle someone like Sanheim/Frost/Myers to move up??!! Does Hextall hang up immediately?

  134. jtblack says:

    Speaking of Narratives: a true crime Malkin doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Both by the league and in hockey blogs everywhere.
    If Malkin were Canadian he would be …. recognized as the freako talent he is.
    CALDER – check
    HART – check
    ART ROSS x 2 – check
    CUPS x 3 – check
    1.19 All time PPG Reg Season
    165 Playoff Points – #20 All Time
    CONN SMYTHE – check

    I really like Drai, but he would be lucky hold Malkins jock strap.

  135. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Whoa, to disagree that Drai won’t become quite the player the Malkin has become is, in my opinion and with respect, a very biased opinion – we are talking about a Hall of Famer here – I love me some Drai but I don’t imagine we will ever be as proficient as Evgeni Malkin.

    +1.

  136. Melvis says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Thanks man – but that’s not it. The one that’s in my head is a lot fatter and deeper. Less poppy, electronic, club, dance, whatever. And quite possibly a one hit wonder.

    A bit more sophisticated. More, I dunno, R&B grounded. Where the hell is Sheps when you need him?

  137. jtblack says:

    jtblack: If Malkin were Canadian he would be …. recognized as the freako talent he is.
    CALDER – check
    HART – check
    ART ROSS x 2 – check
    CUPS x 3 – check
    1.19 All time PPG Reg Season
    165 Playoff Points – #20 All Time
    CONN SMYTHE – check

    For Reference here are Crosbys :

    HART x 2
    ART ROSS x 2
    CONN SMYTHE x 2
    CUPS x 3
    1.29 Reg Season PPG
    185 Playoff Points – #10 All Time

    He’s ok too.

  138. Melvis says:

    I bet LT can twig to it. Outside of the Oilers, he lives in that space.

    “Yeah, he said. And I’m just gonna let you dangle out there.”

    Bastard;-)

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I believe the correct call on Jesse Puljujarvi is to play him on McDavid’s line, where he had success this past season. I haven’t listed him there because it’s unrealistic to expect Todd McLellan to elevate the young man. Expect at least a portion of the season to be spent on the No. 3 line.

    ———————————–

    I disagree, I think the right play of to play him with Drai – their goal share was awful but their possession stats were very nice in a small sample size last year.

    I think that is (or should be) the 2nd duo:

    Nuge/McDavid
    Leon/Puljijarvi
    Khaira/Strome

    I thInk in the short term yes, but at some point I like balancing the size and D of JP with Connor and the quickness and brains of Nuge and big slower Drai.

  140. Munny says:

    Melvis:
    Also female. Kind of a flat nasal tone.

    So not Rick Astley then. 😉

  141. Munny says:

    Melvis:
    Restore my system….all you musicologists. This is driving me crazy. I heard this overhead at CanTire earlier today. It was a big hit a year, or two or three ago.Everytime I got in the car, I caught the tail end and never did catch the name of act.

    The refrain goes:

    All I’m gonna ( or wanna do)is dance, dance , dance.It’s upbeat and contains a deep, heavy groove.

    Problem being…there are about a million dance, dance dance tunes. None of which match.

    C’mon men. Help me.

    Did you check the website of the radio station? Some of them publish their playlists and they’re time signatured. Or send them a text or give them a call.

  142. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    I bet LT can twig to it. Outside of the Oilers,he lives in that space.

    “Yeah, he said.And I’m just gonna let you dangle out there.”

    Bastard;-)

    Give me more. Dance dance dance, female flat nasal voice. Anything else?

  143. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    One thing at a time:

    – I think CmD and Drai can be Crosby Malkin v. 2.0 and then some

    I think 97 can be 87, disagree on 29 & 71


    – Malkin as great as he is, he missed a lot of games from Drai’s current age onwards

    Yes, but at Drai’s current age Malkin had already put up 2 of his 3100 point seasons

    The scoring age curve peaks around 24 for most players.


    – Even if you are right in asserting that Drai won’t be as good as Malkin (I disagree), I think a few factors auger well for a 100+ top-10 scoring 2C: the points from 3×3. The trend to goal;’s increasing continues, the possibility that Drai gets better wingers than Malkin, the CmD dynamic insofar as Drai doesn’t get power vs power as much, the potential for the sickest PP in a generation with CmD, Drai, RNH, a right hammer, and a net presence

    -3×3 could be a factor
    -Goals are trending up, but not near enough make it common enough for Drai to hit it unless a lot of thing go right
    -I think if he was a full time RW for 97 he’d have a chance


    – I think if I offereed to escrow 100K for Drai scoring 100 points in a season once, you would be crazy to take that bet straight up.

    With no end date? Yeah, wouldn’t take that. One year he might be a full time winger for 97 and he’d have a real chance


    – I think betting as you suggest that for more than half the season going forward Drai will score 100 points, I’d be crazy to take that bet

    Yeah, I’d want to bet before each year and who ever wins collects at the end


    – I’m pretty sure though that when this team is competing for a Cup, you are going to have an “inflation adjusted” 100 point season from Drai, and more points from CmD

    I don’t see goals going up enough for that.

    Nor is it required for a team to have a 100 point scorer to play in The Cup final.

    In the last 11 seasons (07/08-17/18) there have been 17 100 point seasons.

    4 players from that list played in the Cup final: Malkin in 2007, Malkin & Crosby in 08/09, and D. Sedin in 10/11


    – I’m also pretty sure that heaven forbid CmD misses a season, Drai would be a 100 point player on a decent Oiler team

    I don’t think the currently have any player he would require to get him there. He would need 97 to reach 100.


    – I don’t think there is a team in this league that has two players who could both be top-10 scorers on different lines: except us: malkin and crosby are both over 30 now

    I agree. What then leads you to believe that 97 and 29 could do it? 97 is obvious, but what do you see in 29?

    As we all know, high end talents show themselves very early in their careers and Drai is very good, but he’s not that level.

    Here are Drai’s and Malkin’s points/game for each age year so far: (age determined at Dec 31 of season year)

    100 points is 1.22/gm

    18 year old
    Malkin n/a (in Russia)
    Drai n/a (late birthday, in WHL)

    19 year old
    Malkin n/a (in Russia)
    Drai 0.24

    20 year old
    Malkin 1.09
    Drai 0.71

    21 year old
    Malkin 1.29
    Drai 0.94

    22 year old
    Malkin 1.38
    Drai 0.90

    23 year old
    Malkin 1.15
    Drai – ???

    Drai is a good player (who still has yet to achieve 50% GF away from McDavid) but he’s not tracking anywhere near Malkin.

    Like I said earlier, there have been 17 player season since 07/08 where a player achieved 100 points.

    They are:
    Crosby – 4
    Malkin – 3
    Ovechkin – 3
    McDavid – 2
    Backstrom – 1
    Kane – 1
    D. Sedin – 1
    H. Sedin – 1
    Kucherov – 1
    Giroux – 1

    Its pretty rare.

    Drai’s peak year so far is 0.94 points/gm

    Using a minimum of 60gp, (so minimum 57 pts in 60gp) since 07/08 there have been 209 player seasons where that was achieved.

    Still a good achievement, but 209 in 11 years is a ways down the road from 17 in 11 years.

  144. Melvis says:

    “See you on the radio!”

    It always seemed thtat way to me. A visual medium. Witness Orson Welles and War of the Worlds.

    Or the Vegas approach compared to a starling murmuration.

  145. Munny says:

    Lowetide: Give me more. Dance dance dance, female flat nasal voice. Anything else?

    I know, it’s thin.

    This is the best I’ve got, and it sounds too Latin-flavoured to fit:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzbRtlFuxCY

    Nor does it really get radio play.

  146. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis,

    I really don’t think this is it, but I can’t help myself:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_tRPnYigQk

  147. Professor Q says:

    Melvis:
    Gerta Rauss,

    Thanks man – but that’s not it.The one that’s in my head is a lot fatter and deeper. Less poppy, electronic, club, dance, whatever. And quite possibly a one hit wonder.

    A bit more sophisticated. More, I dunno, R&B grounded.Where the hell is Sheps when you need him?

    Maybe this?

    Martin Jensen – Solo Dance (hey, perfect for the premiere tonight!)

    https://youtu.be/ginBV6aeVlc

    What an interesting exercise you’ve led us on!

  148. Melvis says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s all I’ve got LT. That effin refrain. And the hand over hand 16’s on the hi-hat over a fat 2 and 4 snare.

    Or… do de do, da da da dat. Do de do da da dat…repeat.

    That help? – lol

  149. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    Lowetide,

    That’s all I’ve got LT. That effin refrain. And the hand over hand 16’s on the hi-hat over a fat 2 and 4snare.

    Or… do de do, da da da dat. Do de do da da dat…repeat.

    That help? – lol

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86UbtuVpQxY

  150. Melvis says:

    Dammit. Thanks dudes.

    But I’ve I’ve already checked all those out. And a dozen more. I can’t believe I can’t dig out such a popular summer tune at one time within the recent past. Otherwise I wouldn’t be asking.

  151. Melvis says:

    Lowetide,

    Nope. On a metronme or click track, it’s slightly over average heartbeat rate.

  152. Professor Q says:

    Melvis:
    Dammit. Thanks dudes.

    But I’ve I’ve already checked all those out. And a dozen more. I can’t believe I can’t dig out such a popular summertune at one time within the recent past. Otherwise I wouldn’t be asking.

    It happens to me all the time.

    So many times I’ve forgotton Amber – This Is Your Night. It’s embarrassing. And so many covers and samples etc. muddy the waters.

  153. Professor Q says:

    I bet Lieutenant Eric would know.

    Reminding you all to listen to the Lowdown more frequently!

  154. Melvis says:

    And it grinds, – you know? Like It’s knock your dick in the dirt time. No fooling around.

  155. Gerta Rauss says:

    Melvis,

    My first thought was Henley’s All she wants to do is dance, but then I remembered you probably sat in on those sessions…lol…

  156. Oz says:

    Hi LT. Our boys were into Commodore 64’s in about ‘in mid 80’s and wrote their own games etc, all good times, and I believe it helped them later in their life when they had their own careers.
    There has been some mention on this blog about Drai nor being fast, as say Malkin, my believe he another Penner only x times better. He sees the ice so well, the two gentleman are elite atheletes and not so “gentle” either. Love that aspect.
    Not overly excited about the Gulutzan hire, he “brouwered” the flames to death, so well well documented by an earlier poster, so in my estimation the wine summit won. Bob and Chia are done after 20 or so games so more of same old …. bastards

  157. Melvis says:

    Professor Q,

    Yeah, he’d probably know. Call him:-)

  158. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    If we throw out Drai’s 19 year old year and count each player’s first 3 years:

    Malkin 304 points in 242 games = 1.26 pts/gm

    Drai 198 points in 232 games = 0.85 pts/gm

    Drai is 106 points behind Malkin and Malkin only has 10 games in hand.

    In Malkin’s next 542 games he scored 626 points = 1.15 pt/gm – a level Drai has yet to achieve and Malkin averaged that for the next 8.5 season .(0.5 is for the half lockout year)

    I know you’re big on health, which is why you liked Lucic more than Hall (Hall has 146 pts to Lucic’s 84 since the trade btw…..) so let’s say Drai stays really healthy and averages 75 games a year for the next 9 seasons.

    To get to where Malkin is today in points (930 – regular season only) he would need to score 1.15 pts/gm for the next 8.5 seasons averaging 75 games per year to match Malkin.

    That’s pretty much impossible.

    3 players have averaged 1.15 pts/gm over more than one season since 07/08

    Crosby
    Malkin
    McDavid

    Malkin is generational.

  159. Oz says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Woodguy pick a winner
    I read and appreciate the data you produce, so am not attempting to embarrass you in any way, but would like to know who you have chosen.
    Myself I have gone for Vegas based on goaltender Save % and a better rest periods between series. What bothers me about Fleury is what has changed about his style, or is it the team defense. Maybe you can help me there?

  160. Melvis says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Just the rehearsals at SIR. Studio Instrument Rentals. Oh yeah and that tour i did as a lighting designer.

    (I don’t know squat about the techniclal end of lighting design, other than painting the stage with this colour or that – given the emotional tenor of any particular tune.)

    And then I was reminded of Dobie Gray week at at the Troubadour.Another one hit wonder.

    Calgary based Painter was playing at the Whiskey A GoGo around that time. Weird.

    Bob Ego, their drummer at that time, – between iterations of Kenny Shields and Witness… still teaches drums in Edmonton.

  161. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    Gerta Rauss,

    Just the rehearsals at SIR. Studio Instrument Rentals. Oh yeah and that tour i did as a lighting designer.

    (I don’t know squat about the techniclal end of lighting design, other than painting the stage with this colour or that – given the emotional tenor of any particular tune.)

    And then I was reminded of Dobie Gray week at at the Troubadour.Another one hit wonder.

    Calgary based Painter was playing at the Whiskey A GoGo around that time. Weird.

    Bob Ego, their drummer at that time, – between iterations of Kenny Shields and Witness… still teaches drums in Edmonton.

    Painter did West coast woman? I think they did. That was a good band.

  162. godot10 says:

    Melvis:
    Lowetide,

    That’s all I’ve got LT. That effin refrain. And the hand over hand 16’s on the hi-hat over a fat 2 and 4snare.

    Or… do de do, da da da dat. Do de do da da dat…repeat.

    That help? – lol

    How about Gaga? Just Dance
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Abk1jAONjw

  163. Melvis says:

    Lowetide,

    Damn good band. Blew my ears out at a U of S gig in the eraly 70’s. Maybe all this current oognitive dissonance too, come to think of it.

  164. Melvis says:

    godot10,

    Close. All we have to do is take it up a notch tempo wise. Lower the voice half an octave, and heavy up the backup crew.

  165. Melvis says:

    I’m temporarily stymied . I’ve spent a couple of hours on a problem. It’s getting late and I like to get up with the birds in this gorgeous weather.

    The problem is real enough, and real world – but do you see what just happened here?

    I’m no coach. I won’t follow and I can’t lead. All I did was ask a question. Out of ignorance. And a number of principal blog dudes threw in.

    That’s a fuckin good team. A really good team.

  166. Lowetide says:

    We’ll get this Melvis, I’ll ask my daughter in the morning.

  167. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yeah, I don’t know how anyone can take issue with CmD not “exceeding expectations”.It’s not a criticism, he just wasn’t as dominant.He be just “normal awesome”He has another gear still

    Given the decline in secondary scoring this year I think it’s pretty apparent that McDavid was even more dominant this season. Strange world we live in.

  168. SwedishPoster says:

    Melvis:
    godot10,

    Close. All we have to do is take it up a notchtempo wise. Lower the voice half an octave, and heavy up the backup crew.

    The two more poppy Dance dance dance songs I can think of are Lykke Li https://youtu.be/modXbqbsAvs

    And Justin Timberlake but he’s a man(though high pitched) so not sure it fits, very easy song to get stuck in ones head though
    https://youtu.be/ru0K8uYEZWw

    Edit: Saw that Woodguy already mentioned Timberlake and ofc he did, Timber, wood, it just makes sense.

  169. Munny says:

    GMB3,

    He was definitely a lesser man during the illness.

    But this season he learned to shoot with conviction consistently. Took awhile but it came.

    And that IMO, is a step forward. (Reminds me of when Gretz decided he wanted to be a goal scorer)

    And it means we can now pair CMD with more of a playmaker like Nuge.

  170. GMB3 says:

    Melvis:
    I’m temporarily stymied . I’ve spenta couple of hours on a problem. It’s getting late and I like to get up with the birds in this gorgeous weather.

    The problem is real enough, and real world – but do you see what just happened here?

    I’m no coach. I won’t follow and I can’t lead. All I did was ask a question. Out of ignorance. Anda number of principal blog dudes threw in.

    That’s a fuckin good team. A really good team.

    Did you check the top 40’s for the summer months last couple years? I’m a pretty big music junky and have been a bit of a club rat in the past and I can’t place the song you are describing.

  171. Melvis says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thanks, but no. Already checked those out.

    GMB3,

    I think I’ll need a chunk of Friday, a lot of coffee, a bit of patience, and some cognac.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    GMB3,

    He was definitely a lesser man during the illness.

    But this season he learned to shoot with conviction consistently.Took awhile but it came.

    And that IMO, is a step forward. (Reminds me of when Gretz decided he wanted to be a goal scorer)

    And it means we can now pair CMD with more of a playmaker like Nuge.

    Except on the PP.

    He didn’t decide to shoot more on the PP and, with respect and in my opinion, he may have regressed on the PP.

    Yes, coaching and systems but the players have accountability as well.

    I don’t think there is much doubt that McDavid will become an elite PP QB but he’s not there yet – imagine when he does get there – geez, what a player1

  173. rope-a-dope says:

    godot10: Counting chickens before they have hatched, I see.

    And then you are looking at one season in isolation.Chicago 3 cups, Pittsburgh 2 Cups suggests otherwise.

    If Werenski is healthy, does Washington get by Columbus?

    Washington has desperation on their side.Everyone knows the team cannot be kept together after this season. They are playing freer than they ever have.

    Nope, just observing the fact that Washington was able to physically dominate Tampa and win the East. With the emphasis on speed lately you would think perhaps the fastest team in the league would win but this series shows physicality still has plenty of value.

  174. Revolved says:

    Melvis,

    Could it be Modo Diao’s ‘Dance with somebody’

    That has a very hard Dance, Dance, Dance at the end of the chorus.

  175. SwedishPoster says:

    Melvis,

    How about “Solo Dance” with danish Martin Jensen https://youtu.be/spZRDkt4fmY

  176. ArmchairGM says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: ‘Member when McDavid took the play board from the coaches and wrote up a play in like 5 seconds…
    And then proceeded to score on said play in the next shift…
    I member…

    But sadly, not what game or against what opponent…

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rSU75gY7kZM

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oz:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Woodguy pick a winner
    I read and appreciate the data you produce, so am not attempting to embarrass you in any way, but would like to know who you have chosen.
    Myself I have gone for Vegas based on goaltender Save % and a better rest periods between series. What bothers me about Fleury is what has changed about his style, or is it the team defense. Maybe you can help me there?

    *flips coin*

    WSH

  178. Professor Q says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Melvis,

    How about “Solo Dance” with danish Martin Jensen https://youtu.be/spZRDkt4fmY

    I had suggested this one last night yet sadly Melvis had already came across it and it wasn’t it.

  179. jonrmcleod says:

    Any truth to the rumour that Mark Hunter might join the Oilers in some capacity?

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