Are you sure you want to do that?

The first thing to identify is the target. If Peter Chiarelli plans on trading No. 10 overall, it’s important we put a value on it. Let’s say the pick ends up being Jesperi Kotkaniemi, he of the solid boxcars in the Sm-Liiga (57, 10-19-29) this past season. He’s a center, he could absolutely become a quality piece of the McDavid cluster and his entry-level contract will be a bargain. That’s a lot of value. What would the offer look like that gets Chiarelli to trade this player away? Is it out there?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your hot liquid. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

RECENT FINNS IN THE SM-LIIGA

This is each man in his draft year, with time on ice giving an extra angle for the group. I don’t have 5×5 numbers, but JP’s points-per-60 (2.23) aren’t so far away from Patrik Laine’s (2.49). Kotkaniemi would be a tough player for the Oilers to pass up, the first round picks since 2013 (Nurse, Leon, 97, Puljujarvi, Yamamaoto, Kotkamiemi) forming a brilliant talent cluster.

I’ll have my Top 120 (might be 125) on Friday and that will be the final list. Some late additions and movement as there always is, mostly Euro (again, as usual). Edwards’ publication is simply incredible, his quote of the scout is interesting. It might put Edmonton in a good trade spot if a club is desperate to grab a (for instance) center.

For me, my list (and I’m not comparing it to the people who do this stuff all the time, including video and staffs, et cetera) the first 12 names are strong and each player has enough about him to be considered a top drawer prospect. After that, from No. 13 (Barrett Hayton) to No. 41 (Nathan Dunkley) math doesn’t see a lot of difference. You can rely on scouting reports and date of birth, Mr. Edwards’ quote reflects how important it is to have the right person in the evaluation role. There’s enough confusion in this draft for some team to get rich and another team to fall even farther behind. I remember the 2002 draft was supposed to be weak, Oilers walked out of the second round with two men who played a long time in the league.

THE 2013 TRADE TALK

  • MacT:  “Well, we’ve talked to a number of teams about that seventh pick and moving that pick in either direction. I think that’s something that we’re very amenable to. If we do move that pick back and get an asset that we feel can come in and help the current group, we’d be more than happy to have any of those discussions, and have had many of those discussions with a lot of the managers at this point. In terms of moving up, I’ve had a couple discussions with managers about moving up.”

In the spring of 2013 MacT was a mover, wanting to impact goaltending (Vancouver reportedly asking for No. 7 plus plus for Cory Schneider before settling for No. 9 overall and Bo Horvat). Other names in play for Edmonton were Braydon Coburn and Cal Clutterbuck. MacT didn’t make the deal because the ask was too great, the Oilers struggled along for two more seasons before settling the goalie situation. Trading for three veteran assets would have improved the team’s chances in 2013-14, but would it have been enough? MacT held on to the pick and the youth that would have been required to make all those deals. I think it was the wise choice. Schneider would have been a fabulous addition.

I will tell you the Oilers made the right choice at No. 1 overall in 2012 by choosing Nail Yakupov. It didn’t work out but on draft day he was the most compelling resume. Six years later, he’s (for his career) 1.42/60 scoring 5×5. That’s about Ryan Strome’s production this past season. I hope the young man finds a better place and a better day.

TARGETS FOR NO. 10 OVERALL

I’ve talked about this before, but for me the only reasonable return for No. 10 overall is a more advanced player who is still under control. Remember, this isn’t a group that will be traded, but rather a list of successful players in their entry deals. I’m sure much of the list includes untradeable names. Here’s my list, with 2017-18 5×5/60 scoring.

  1. R Alex DeBrincat 2.14
  2. R Mikko Rantanen 2.09
  3. R Brock Boeser 2.09
  4. LC Danton Heinen 1.97
  5. L Clayton Keller 1.96
  6. R Alexander Kerfoot 1.89
  7. RC Nick Schmaltz 1.88
  8. L Anthony Beauvillier 1.82
  9. L Pavel Buchnevich 1.77
  10. L Timo Meier 1.71

Interesting. I’ll tell you that half of those guys would never get traded for No. 10 overall (why would Chicago trade either of their guys) and most of the rest have some risk attached (do we know Danton Heinen will have the career this past season implies?). Now the defense.

  1. Travis Dermott 1.40
  2. Markus Nutivaara 1.37
  3. Mikhail Sergachev 1.29
  4. Charlie McAvoy 1.15
  5. Will Butcher 1.13
  6. Ivan Provorov 1.08
  7. Thomas Chabot 1.04
  8. Christian Djoos 1.00

Same as above, several blue you can’t pry off an NHL roster with a tire iron and a few who you wouldn’t consider trading No. 10 overall to acquire. Ivan Provorov is a player that jumps off the page but the Flyers aren’t trading him no matter the package. I included Nutivaara because he is signed for several years at a good number. I wouldn’t trade the pick for him.

For me, trading the pick (who we have given a value to by naming Kotkaniemi) makes sense only if you get an NHL-ready plug and play who is also under control. Who on these lists would you trade the pick for?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning as we get ready for the most unlikely Stanley Cup Final of our lifetime. Scheduled to appear, beginning at 10 on TSN1260:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. The SCF starts tonight! Incredible stories everywhere.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers coaching additions and what it means, SCF, Eskimos look good in May game.

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155 Responses to "Are you sure you want to do that?"

  1. Brantford Boy says:

    Because you asked, I’d trade the pick for Brock Boeser or Ivan Provorov… realistically though, this is never going to happen…

    Any guesses from the group on a range (say 10, ie. 25-35) where Calen Addison gets selected?

  2. Rafa Nadal says:

    What happened to the drop off after the top 9? Has the gap been closed? Supposedly, Kotkaniemi is the beginning of the second cluster of players. I’m hoping a Wahlstrom or a Dobson somehow fall to #10, but maybe that’s unlikely at this point.

  3. Scungilli Slushy says:

    “only if you get an NHL-ready plug and play who is also under control”

    LT would you spend to trade up to 1 or 2, likely a package deal?

  4. Silver Streak says:

    No way Dobson falls to #10 after the MMC…..Maybe Boquvist….or a forward. Hears hoping someone above Chia has ruled we will use that pick….just the protection against the Seattle draft is enough to decide that issue…….isn`t it ?

  5. Cassandra says:

    Corey Pronman only lists 74 players on his draft list. The reason is that he lists as many players as are draftable, i.e. he does not think #75 is worth a draft pick, and he would trade the pick rather than waste it on the player. This is enough players for all 7 rounds because other teams have a different list, such that you are still getting one of your top 74 players even in the late rounds.

    I find this idea fascinating and brilliant. If he’s right that there are only 74 players worth drafting, then we are thinking about the draft wrong, and need to recalibrate what a good draft looks like. It means that there isn’t any real consensus, and that a good scouting team should be able to beat the mean almost every year.

    For instance if Pronman was your scouting director you should be able to get two first round talents and two second round talents out of your picks in the first four rounds. That should be the goal.

    It would be interesting after the draft to put up who the Oilers actually draft, and then compare their picks to LT, Pronman, and Wheeler.

  6. Rondo says:

    Silver Streak,

    I’m guessing Boqvist, Wahlstrom or Kotkaniemi could fall to #10.

  7. boopronger says:

    Im tired of playing “what if we pass on this guy”. It doesnt matter. Oilers need a top pair d man more then another Pool party or Magnus paairvi. Not saying that pick will get you that, im saying the priorities should lie elsewhere then this pick. If oilers management actually had a track record of getting value around that spot, Id say okay, go with it. But they dont.

  8. Jaxon says:

    #10 for Mascherin and #15. Someone with huge upside will still be available at #15. Kravtsov, Bokk, Noel and Merkley will likely be available (players I think are underrated) and I’m sure one of these guys might still be there at #15, including Bouchard, Veleno, Dobson and Farabee:

    High and Low pick for each player from scouts Pronman, Wheeler, Kournianos, Button who have a low lower than 15:
    Bouchard 5 – 18
    Veleno 5 – 27
    Heyton 7 – 24
    Dobson 8 – 20
    Bokk 8 – 29
    Farabee 9 – 27
    Merkley 10 – 46
    Wilde 11 – 25
    Kupari 11 – 23
    Denisenko 13 – 42
    Ylonen 14 – 59
    Kravtsov 15 – 18
    Noel 16 – 41

  9. bendelson says:

    Big Walhlstrom fan… but that’s not going to happen at 10.
    Big Kotkaniemi fan… starting to look like he might not be there at 10.

    In a not so subtle nod to VOR (and his wonderful contributions to this blog over the past few months re: the draft), I would trade the pick for Martin Necas, should Carolina want to make a splash with two picks in the top 10. In fact, I’d expand the offer to include Kassian, in an effort to include another one of their prospects from the farm.

    *Not certain, but if Necas requires expansion protection… I may have to reconsider this move.

  10. 36 percent body fat says:

    so we all know Chia pissed away assets.

    So lets look at it this way. We need to tweak, and get rid of bad contracts. We need to find value contracts, by which I mean, cap hit is less relative to other players within the same production.

    We have McDavid. Big game hunting is not the answer. Continuing to draft skill is. No need to ever trade a first rounder going forward.

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon:
    #10 for Mascherin and #15. Someone with huge upside will still be available at #15. Kravtsov, Bokk, Noel and Merkley will likely be available (players I think are underrated) and I’m sure one of these guys might still be there at #15, including Bouchard, Veleno, Dobson and Farabee:

    High and Low pick for each player from scouts Pronman, Wheeler, Kournianos, Button who have a low lower than 15:
    Bouchard 5 – 18
    Veleno 5 – 27
    Heyton 7 – 24
    Dobson 8 – 20
    Bokk 8 – 29
    Farabee 9 – 27
    Merkley 10 – 46
    Wilde 11 – 25
    Kupari 11 – 23
    Denisenko 13 – 42
    Ylonen 14 – 59
    Kravtsov 15 – 18
    Noel 16 – 41

    For me Mascherin isn’t enough. He’s a decentish prospect (there are clear issues including scoring for his age post draft, boots and height) but not a blue chipper which is the sweetener I want if the player isn’t a proven NHLer to get my top 10 pick.

    The Oilers need to start getting straight across value or that plus, or I will lose my mind at some point with them constantly bleeding out. At some point they need to win a deal to restore harmony in the universe.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    36 percent body fat:
    so we all know Chia pissed away assets.

    So lets look at it this way.We need to tweak, and get rid of bad contracts.We need to find value contracts, by which I mean, cap hit is less relative to other players within the same production.

    We have McDavid.Big game hunting is not the answer.Continuing to draft skill is.No need to ever trade a first rounder going forward.

    This should be the last year in a long while their first is worth much.

  13. JimmyV1965 says:

    What if the Oil could trade the pick for Max Domi ++. It would be ideal if the Yotes had another first round pick to offer as well, but they don’t. Maybe you get Tyler Steenbergen in addition.

  14. Rondo says:

    bendelson,

    Wahlstrom could fall just look at Eeli Tolvanen last year. One dimensional players do have a tendency of falling.

  15. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    LT usually does this with Redline and McKenzie.

    Pronman is just one person. From what I can tell I like his shoot for the moon rankings but he does miss quite a bit (as does everyone) and most of his rankings are hidden behind paywalls if you actually wanted to do an analysis of how many players you would miss if you ignored players outside his top 75 or top 100 rankings

  16. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo,

    Wahlstrom would be a dream. USHL and USNDT have been amazing at talent development and forwards that put up those kind of numbers rarely miss lately.

  17. bendelson says:

    Rondo:
    bendelson,

    Wahlstrom could fall just look at Eeli Tolvanen last year.One dimensional players do have a tendency of falling.

    Maybe… but I wouldn’t bet on it. Please, let me know if you’d like to make a wager on it!

    FYI: I don’t make that Necas trade until we see who’s actually available to 10. I’d keep the pick for Wahlstrom, no question.

  18. ArmchairGM says:

    “Jesperi Kotkaniemi, he of the solid boxcars in the Sm-Liiga (57, 10-19-29) this past season. He’s a center…”

    Cam Robinson – DobberProspects – April 26: “Great puck skills and finishing ability, but skating still a work in progress. Offers an awkward stride that doesn’t generate a ton of top-end power. That hasn’t stopped him from putting up more than respectable numbers Liiga though, albeit from the wing.”

    “… he could absolutely become a quality piece of the McDavid cluster and his entry-level contract will be a bargain. That’s a lot of value.”

    Absolutely. Whether he ends up being C or W in NHL (this matters less to the Oilers than any team picking ahead), this could be a huge get at #10.

  19. Primetime says:

    Re: Yakupov

    Someone in the last thread wondered if he was getting bad advice from Larionov leading to the split. I’m not sure about bad advice, Igor seems pretty darn smart, but probably conflicting advice. It would not surprise me at all if Igor has strongly suggested he return to the KHL to get his value back up before trying to crack the NHL again…worried that 3rd (or 4th) strike and Yak will never get another NHL shot. From all reports, Yak is very determined and probably refuses to believe he needs to leave the NHL, even for a short hiatus, and is willing to play on any team at any price to prove his worth. Thus the disconnect.

    It will never happen, but I would love to give him a cheap 1 year deal and promise to give him a legit chance as Leon’s shooter (yes I know his sights are a bit off, but if I recall, they had good numbers together in a brief sample size?) Would he really be worse than an aging veteran winger? You would have to keep him away from TMac, but know we have the potential Euro whisperer in Coach Manny who could specialize in dealing and nurturing both Yak and Pool Party?

  20. Rondo says:

    bendelson

    I wouldn’t bet on it, but I do see it as a possibility, Some teams value a two way C over a winger. Example Pierre Luc Dubois

  21. Jaxon says:

    Scungilli Slushy: For me Mascherin isn’t enough. He’s a decentish prospect (there are clear issues including scoring for his age post draft, boots and height) but not a blue chipper which is the sweetener I want if the player isn’t a proven NHLer to get my top 10 pick.

    The Oilers need to start getting straight across value or that plus, or I will lose my mind at some point with them constantly bleeding out. At some point they need to win a deal to restore harmony in the universe.

    His scoring is pretty damn high the last two seasons with little to no offensive support on his team as he outscored his next closest teammate by 40 and 21 points the past two seasons. He got 40 goals this season, and that was after a slow start. I also think you may be overstating his ‘boots’ issue. The scouting reports I’ve read talks about his skating and speed as an asset although one said his top end speed isn’t elite. Also, he’s built like a bricksh*thouse so size isn’t as big an issue either.

    “Prolific scoring winger who combines an exceedingly high work ethic with speed, skill, and a mature approach to the game to overcome size differentials. An intense competitor with a booming shot, Masherin finds ways to score by outworking the opposition. He may not be the tallest player on the ice, but he isn’t a lightweight either. He plays a fast, heavy game and isn’t afraid to battle against tougher opponents. All-in-all, a lightning rod kind of player who will exceed expectations and bring energy to the game with each shift. (Curtis Joe, EP 2015)”

    “May 2017 – Mascherin proved to be the offensive catalyst in Kitchener this season as he posted 35 goals and 100 points in 65 games, good for third in OHL scoring. Mascherin was an offensive force every time he was on the ice while showcasing his outstanding shot and speed. Although not the tallest player on the ice, Mascherin has the strength and work ethic to win battles against any opponent. ” – Dobber

    “March 2016 – At 5’10” it is easy to dismiss Mascherin as a “small player” and that is not entirely accurate. Yes he is short by pro hockey standards, but he is not small. He is 205 pounds and strong as an ox. He is built like a fire hydrant and has excellent skating ability. He has explosive acceleration and a high end top gear. Mascherin has a deadly shot, hard, quick and accurate and controls the puck well at top speed. His game is reminiscent of Phil Kessel, but stronger and not yet quite as gifted offensively. Peter Harling”

    “March 2018 – In the Western Conference side of annual OHL Coaches Poll, Mascherin won the Best Shot vote, and he also finished second in the Hardest Shot and Most Dangerous in the Goal Area categories. Jokke Nevalainen”

    “Built like a bowling ball and plays like a tank. Just keeps rampaging through the OHL, and his speed and offensive production are top-notch.”
    – Kyle Woodlief of Redline Report at USAToday.com”

    This is how Mascherin’s draft season measured up against draft picks in Canadian junior since 2005 and in the USHL since 2016 of players who played 13.74 minutes of 5-on-5 per game and had a GF% of 56% or higher.

    YEAR Name “AGE & ERA ADJ
    NHLE 5-on-5 P1
    @TOP6TOI”
    2005 Sidney Crosby 48.18
    2015 Connor McDavid 44.02
    2018 Andrei Svechnikov 38.80*
    2015 Mitchell Marner 37.49
    2015 Dylan Strome 36.80
    2014 Robby Fabbri 33.93
    2007 Patrick Kane 32.41
    2013 Nathan MacKinnon 30.49
    2014 Sam Bennett 30.15
    2014 Spencer Watson 30.10
    2010 Taylor Hall 29.83
    2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois 29.43
    2016 Alex DeBrincat 29.20
    2016 Cameron Morrison 29.13
    2016 Adam Mascherin 29.04**** This is elite territory without many misses.
    2008 Steven Stamkos 28.87
    2018 Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79*
    2013 Jonathan Drouin 28.62
    2010 Tyler Seguin 28.53
    2006 Chris Stewart 28.11
    2009 Evander Kane 28.10
    2005 Bobby Ryan 28.02
    2017 Owen Tippett 27.81
    2018 Jonathan Gruden 27.62*
    2017 Nick Suzuki 26.98
    2010 Tyler Toffoli 26.72
    2014 Nikolaj Ehlers 26.06
    2008 Tyler Ennis 26.04

    Spencer Watson is the biggest miss and he has had injury issues. Everyone else is either a success or too early to tell. I’d have confidence in picking a player from this list. And Mascherin is closer-to-NHL-ready than most would be if picked in a draft. I think his lack of scoring teammates may have more to do with his perceived lack of production in the oast two years than anything else.

  22. Jaxon says:

    boopronger:
    Im tired of playing “what if we pass on this guy”. It doesnt matter. Oilers need a top pair d man more then another Pool party or Magnus paairvi. Not saying that pick will get you that, im saying the priorities should lie elsewhere then this pick. If oilers management actually had a track record of getting value around that spot, Id say okay, go with it. But they dont.

    I think Edmonton’s track record from #3 to #25 is pretty good. Since 2004
    ’04 Dubnyk (#14)
    ’05 Cogliano (#25)
    ’07 Gagner (#6)
    ’08 Eberle (#22)
    ’09 Paajarvi (#10) – biggest miss
    ’11 Klefbom (#19)
    ’13 Nurse #7)
    ’14 Draisaitl (#3)
    ’16 Puljujarvi (#4)
    ’17 Yamamoto (#22)

    So, technically, their track record at #10 is not great, but that’s a pretty small sample size (1). Their record from ’04 to ’14 over 8 picks is pretty damn good with 8 of 8 NHLers, and I’d say 6 out of 8 were hits with Gagner and Paajarvi being the misses and Gagner is a pretty good miss.

  23. 36 percent body fat says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Doesnt Matter,

    You still need the picks

  24. ArmchairGM says:

    “Who on these lists would you trade the pick for?”

    All the guy’s I’d want more than Kotkaniemi are untouchable.

  25. ArmchairGM says:

    Rafa Nadal:
    What happened to the drop off after the top 9? Has the gap been closed? Supposedly, Kotkaniemi is the beginning of the second cluster of players. I’m hoping a Wahlstrom or a Dobson somehow fall to #10, but maybe that’s unlikely at this point.

    Bob McKenzie: “Based on our survey, there is a huge drop off in consensus after No. 9.”

    Note the word “consensus” here – he doesn’t say a drop off in quality.

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Silver Streak,

    I’m guessing Boqvist, Wahlstrom or Kotkaniemi could fall to #10.

    Well, wouldn’t THAT be nice! I’m happy with any of those three.

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    #10 for Mascherin and #15. Someone with huge upside will still be available at #15. Kravtsov, Bokk, Noel and Merkley will likely be available (players I think are underrated) and I’m sure one of these guys might still be there at #15, including Bouchard, Veleno, Dobson and Farabee:

    High and Low pick for each player from scouts Pronman, Wheeler, Kournianos, Button who have a low lower than 15:
    Bouchard 5 – 18
    Veleno 5 – 27
    Heyton 7 – 24
    Dobson 8 – 20
    Bokk 8 – 29
    Farabee 9 – 27
    Merkley 10 – 46
    Wilde 11 – 25
    Kupari 11 – 23
    Denisenko 13 – 42
    Ylonen 14 – 59
    Kravtsov 15 – 18
    Noel 16 – 41

    As others have mentioned, trading #10 for #15 is too high a price to pay for Mascherin. IF he’s willing to sign you give FLA a 3rd round pick, tops.

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jaxon: His scoring is pretty damn high the last two seasons with little to no offensive support on his team as he outscored his next closest teammate by 40 and 21 points the past two seasons. He got 40 goals this season, and that was after a slow start. I also think you may be overstating his ‘boots’ issue. The scouting reports I’ve read talks about his skating and speed as an asset although one said his top end speed isn’t elite. Also, he’s built like a bricksh*thouse so size isn’t as big an issue either.

    “Prolific scoring winger who combines an exceedingly high work ethic with speed, skill, and a mature approach to the game to overcome size differentials. An intense competitor with a booming shot, Masherin finds ways to score by outworking the opposition. He may not be the tallest player on the ice, but he isn’t a lightweight either. He plays a fast, heavy game and isn’t afraid to battle against tougher opponents. All-in-all, a lightning rod kind of player who will exceed expectations and bring energy to the game with each shift. (Curtis Joe, EP 2015)”

    “May 2017 – Mascherin proved to be the offensive catalyst in Kitchener this season as he posted 35 goals and 100 points in 65 games, good for third in OHL scoring. Mascherin was an offensive force every time he was on the ice while showcasing his outstanding shot and speed. Although not the tallest player on the ice, Mascherin has the strength and work ethic to win battles against any opponent. ” – Dobber

    “March 2016 – At 5’10” it is easy to dismiss Mascherin as a “small player” and that is not entirely accurate. Yes he is short by pro hockey standards, but he is not small. He is 205 pounds and strong as an ox. He is built like a fire hydrant and has excellent skating ability. He has explosive acceleration and a high end top gear. Mascherin has a deadly shot, hard, quick and accurate and controls the puck well at top speed. His game is reminiscent of Phil Kessel, but stronger and not yet quite as gifted offensively. Peter Harling”

    “March 2018 – In the Western Conference side of annual OHL Coaches Poll, Mascherin won the Best Shot vote, and he also finished second in the Hardest Shot and Most Dangerous in the Goal Area categories.Jokke Nevalainen”

    “Built like a bowling ball and plays like a tank. Just keeps rampaging through the OHL, and his speed and offensive production are top-notch.”
    – Kyle Woodlief of Redline Report at USAToday.com”

    This is how Mascherin’s draft season measured up against draft picks in Canadian junior since 2005 and in the USHL since 2016 of players who played 13.74 minutes of 5-on-5 per game and had a GF% of 56% or higher.

    YEARName“AGE & ERA ADJ
    NHLE 5-on-5 P1
    @TOP6TOI”
    2005Sidney Crosby48.18
    2015Connor McDavid44.02
    2018Andrei Svechnikov38.80*
    2015Mitchell Marner37.49
    2015Dylan Strome36.80
    2014Robby Fabbri33.93
    2007Patrick Kane32.41
    2013Nathan MacKinnon30.49
    2014Sam Bennett30.15
    2014Spencer Watson30.10
    2010Taylor Hall29.83
    2016Pierre-Luc Dubois29.43
    2016Alex DeBrincat29.20
    2016Cameron Morrison29.13
    2016Adam Mascherin29.04**** This is elite territory without many misses.
    2008Steven Stamkos28.87
    2018Oliver Wahlstrom28.79*
    2013Jonathan Drouin28.62
    2010Tyler Seguin28.53
    2006Chris Stewart28.11
    2009Evander Kane28.10
    2005Bobby Ryan28.02
    2017Owen Tippett27.81
    2018Jonathan Gruden27.62*
    2017Nick Suzuki26.98
    2010TylerToffoli26.72
    2014Nikolaj Ehlers26.06
    2008Tyler Ennis26.04

    Spencer Watson is the biggest miss and he has had injury issues. Everyone else is either a success or too early to tell. I’d have confidence in picking a player from this list. And Mascherin is closer-to-NHL-ready than most would be if picked in a draft. I think his lack of scoring teammates may have more to do with his perceived lack of production in the oast two years than anything else.

    Ok, but he still sucks!

  29. N64 says:

    Jaxon: 09 Paajarvi (#10) – biggest miss

    From memory, but I recall OEL being projected around 10 and Paajarvi around 6 and Oilers on pace to pick around around 6. Of course OEL rose and Magnus fell and the Oil jumped up the standings to pick 10th.

    ~ Not that the Oil are likely to ever do a late run and pick 10th instead of 6 and miss out on great D again ~

  30. digger50 says:

    Jaxon,

    You make a compelling argument for Mascherin.

    The deadline is fast approaching for Florida. I would rather offer #41 for him though it’s hard to do anything without knowing the ask.

    Does anyone place Mascherin if he goes back into the draft? That would be interesting. I think Florida does not lose thier asset, and likely have several deals on the table, one of which they accept right at the deadline.

  31. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Ok, but he still sucks!

    And not enough on his own for me. Not enough cache to warrant the return.

  32. Jaxon says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Ok, but he still sucks!

    Okay.

  33. McSorley33 says:

    For all you PK Subban fans…..

    NHL reporter on TSN Radio saying Nashville management may be growing weary of PK Subban.

    Using very polite diplomatic language….PK Subban consumes a lot of Oxygen in the dressing room,
    etc, etc,

    Nashville has to re-sign Ryan Ellis UFA after next year. Then Josi year after.

    After Kyle Turris went AWOL in the playoffs – 0 goals, 3 assists I wonder if Poile looks to get an elite forward coming back ( my conjecture)

    Could be interesting in Nashville.

  34. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: Bob McKenzie: “Based on our survey, there is a huge drop off in consensus after No. 9.”

    Note the word “consensus” here – he doesn’t say a drop off in quality.

    There never has been much consensus in his lists after the Top 10. And obviously the degree of consensus drops as the list progresses.

    Consensus is one of those words that gets misused all the time. Mackenzie isn’t looking for agreement but rather averages his sources’ rankings.

  35. Jaxon says:

    digger50:
    Jaxon,

    You make a compelling argument for Mascherin.

    The deadline is fast approaching for Florida. I would rather offer #41 for him though it’s hard to do anything without knowing the ask.

    Does anyone place Mascherin if he goes back into the draft? That would be interesting. I think Florida does not lose thier asset, and likely have several deals on the table, one of which they accept right at the deadline.

    I would rather offer #41, too! But I think if it came down to it and the ask was more I might do #10 for Mascherin and #15. Not knowing the ask makes it difficult to speculate. I’d also be leaning on my scouts heavily to see what they think of Mascherin. Moving down form #10 to #15 doesn’t seem like a big cost to me in this draft. It seems the player assessments in this range are wildly divergent and there is a very good chance the player you like is still available at #15. I’d love to see Mascherin and Merkley in the Oilers system at the end of the day. Getting Mascherin and Merkley for #10 pick is pretty damn enticing and I’d call that a win. A gamble? Yes. but addressing two roster holes (scoring winger and scoring RHD) with one pick would be a huge draft. They could still draft someone like Addison, Noel or Gruden with #40.

  36. McSorley33 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Cam Robinson – DobberProspects – April 26: “Great puck skills and finishing ability, but skating still a work in progress. Offers an awkward stride that doesn’t generate a ton of top-end power. That hasn’t stopped him from putting up more than respectable numbers Liiga though, albeit from the wing.”
    ************************************************************************************************************
    Makes one wonder if he might play wing in the NHL…..

  37. Munny says:

    Isn’t Mascherin on the list that need contracts prior to the draft?

    If he isn’t signing with the Panthers, they can’t trade him at the draft.

    And trading an asset for him now, with no guarantee of a signature would be the height of folly. Not to mention you should never trade a top 10 pick without knowing who is on the board.

    The kid holds essentially no trade value for the Cats. And certainly isn’t worth dropping 5 places to take a flyer on.

  38. McSorley33 says:

    Bob Mckenzie:

    And while there was a little bit of separation between those three and Hughes at No. 9, understand one thing about this year’s draft: Based on our survey, there is a **huge drop off in consensus after No. 9.***

    Kotkaniemi, though he was just one spot below Hughes, ***didn’t receive anywhere close to the same support.****

    Kotkaniemi is closer to being an interchangeable part with the next three prospects, ranked Nos. 11 through 13. That group, in order, includes Drummondville Voltigeurs centre Joe Veleno, Soo Greyhound centre Barrett Hayton and Spokane Chiefs defenceman Ty Smith.

  39. Munny says:

    N64,

    Not taking a defenseman there was crippling.

  40. McSorley33 says:

    I don’t get the love for Kotkaniemi…..

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    McSorley33:
    ArmchairGM,

    Cam Robinson – DobberProspects – April 26: “Great puck skills and finishing ability, but skating still a work in progress. Offers an awkward stride that doesn’t generate a ton of top-end power. That hasn’t stopped him from putting up more than respectable numbers Liiga though, albeit from the wing.”
    ************************************************************************************************************
    Makes one wonder if he might play wing in the NHL…..

    Yes, which might devalue him in the minds of scouts who need centers, meaning it’s more likely he’ll be available at #10, which is a good thing IMO. Oilers get a great prospect who then returns to Finland and becomes a #1 center in Sm-Liiga over the next two years, and BOOM you’ve got a total steal at #10.

  42. Fuge Udvar says:

    Trading down the pick and grabbing a near NHL ready prospect would be ideal. Philly has 14 and 19.
    10th for 14 + Frost/Lindblom

    Either of those guys immediately start pushing Puljujarvi for top prospect. And between one of those guys, Marody and Yamamoto. One of them should be pushing for a roster spot this year.

    I would look into Colin White+ (Dzingle?) and Pitts pick out of Ottawa

  43. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    Isn’t Mascherin on the list that need contracts prior to the draft?

    If he isn’t signing with the Panthers, they can’t trade him at the draft.

    And trading an asset for him now, with no guarantee of a signature would be the height of folly. Not to mention you should never trade a top 10 pick without knowing who is on the board.

    The kid holds essentially no trade value for the Cats.And certainly isn’t worth dropping 5 places to take a flyer on.

    Correct. Mascherin must be signed by Friday this week or he’s back in the draft. I think FLA might go for a conditional 3rd round pick rather than lose him for nothing – if he’s refusing to sign.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    Fuge Udvar:
    Trading down the pick and grabbing a near NHL ready prospect would be ideal. Philly has 14 and 19.
    10th for 14 + Frost/Lindblom

    Either of those guys immediately start pushing Puljujarvi for top prospect. And between one of those guys, Marody and Yamamoto. One of them should be pushing for a roster spot this year.

    I would look into Colin White+ (Dzingle?) and Pitts pick out of Ottawa

    Morgan Frost was +70 this year in OHL. Is that even legal?

  45. Jaxon says:

    What about #10 & #40 to Florida for Mascherin, #15, and #34?

    digger50:
    Jaxon,

    You make a compelling argument for Mascherin.

    The deadline is fast approaching for Florida. I would rather offer #41 for him though it’s hard to do anything without knowing the ask.

    Does anyone place Mascherin if he goes back into the draft? That would be interesting. I think Florida does not lose thier asset, and likely have several deals on the table, one of which they accept right at the deadline.

    Pronman has him at #45. So by that placement you’d be trading a #10, #40 for #15, #34, #45. Not aware of anyone else placing him in the rankings. Personally, I think he’s worth more than a #45. I think he’s worth more than where he was drafted, too (#38). I think he’s a first-round value who is two years further along in his development and addresses a need. I think he’s better than Yamamoto (#22), more in the Debrincat, Drouin range. Which is why I’d be willing to give up that much.

    I would love to see #10, #40 for Mascherin, #15 and #34. There are always some gems available on the second day with the first few picks, and the team will have a full night to come up with that 3 player list (this is where their track record isn’t so great, though).

  46. N64 says:

    Munny:
    N64,

    Not taking a defenseman there was crippling.

    Not the year to win late and drop below 6th in the draft.

  47. Fuge Udvar says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Philly has incredible forward prospect depth with Nolan, Konecny, Lindblom, Frost, Ratcliffe. Frost was 2nd in OHL scoring too. With 112 points in 67gp. I don’t even think they do 14th + Frost for 10th. Maybe if you ask the for the 19th or throw one of our D prospects in there. I could only see them doing it if one if the bug D is still on the board

  48. John Chambers says:

    McSorley33:
    I don’t get the love for Kotkaniemi…..

    As a centre, Kotkaniemi wouldn’t be as free as JP or Rantanen to go drive offense. That he plays Centre in a top men’s pro league and still managed to post solid offense is remarkable.

    More to it, Kotkaniemi is a July birthday. He was 17 all throughout his draft season, while Rantanen posted those numbers having turned 18 in October of his draft year.

    I see ten very good players in the draft this year, and doubt Kotkaniemi will be available at 10. I bet we see Bouchard, Boqvist, or Dobson, which is fine by me.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    Big Walhlstrom fan… but that’s not going to happen at 10.
    Big Kotkaniemi fan… starting to look like he might not be there at 10.

    In a not so subtle nod to VOR (and his wonderful contributions to this blog over the past few months re: the draft), I would trade the pick for Martin Necas, should Carolina want to make a splash with two picks in the top 10.In fact, I’d expand the offer to include Kassian, in an effort to include another one of their prospects from the farm.

    *Not certain, but if Necas requires expansion protection… I may have to reconsider this move.

    I’ve been reading CAR news and blogs and it sounds like management considers Necas almost as untouchable as Aho.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: As a centre, Kotkaniemi wouldn’t be as free as JP or Rantanen to go drive offense. That he plays Centre in a top men’s pro league and still managed to post solid offense is remarkable.

    More to it, Kotkaniemi is a July birthday. He was 17 all throughout his draft season, while Rantanen posted those numbers having turned 18 in October of his draft year.

    I see ten very good players in the draft this year, and doubt Kotkaniemi will be available at 10. I bet we see Bouchard, Boqvist, or Dobson, which is fine by me.

    He may go as high as 3 to MTL.

  51. Munny says:

    N64: Not the year to win late and drop below 6th in the draft.

    Ellis went right after Paajaarvi.

  52. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide has a list of possible trades (Forwards and Defense) for the #10 pick. It’s not a reasonable list. Between the “untradeables” and the “you don’t want/their gladly dump”, there’s very little else. How many Oilers would you trade for the #9 pick? Between the “untradeables” and the “gladly dump”, there is very little else.

    Generally quality talent takes more than just a pick to acquire. It’s usually requires an additional pick or more and/or an additional talent(s) to swing a deal. This still doesn’t consider the GM you are trading with. His “untradeables” might be assets he willing to trade.

  53. Primetime says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He may go as high as 3 to MTL.

    Woodguy,

    Agree that clearly Montreal is the most centre hungry team in the draft. One of Kotkaniemi or Veleno will be available at 10. Is there anything from the Canadiens that would make you give up the 10th pick outright? Assuming no to Patches as he has only 1 year of control. But would Gallagher plus do it? Galchenyuk? Any type of package?

  54. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Necas is going to be the goods. If we could get him I would be very happy

  55. Yeti says:

    boopronger: If oilers management actually had a track record of getting value around that spot, Id say okay, go with it. But they dont.

    On the contrary, they do fine picking in the first round. What they have little positive track record on is getting value for trading picks.

  56. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    leadfarmer,

    Agreed. Perhaps the Oilers offer the #10 + Kassian for our man, Necas?
    More likely, it’s just wishful thinking… Great player!

  57. Andy Dufresne says:

    Id give up the 10th to Mtl to get Gallagher……but I dont think Mtl would do it.

    26 yrs old, under control for 3 more years at $3.75M AVV

  58. leadfarmer says:

    Primetime: Woodguy,

    Agree that clearly Montreal is the most centre hungry team in the draft.One of Kotkaniemi or Veleno will be available at 10.Is there anything from the Canadiens that would make you give up the 10th pick outright?Assuming no to Patches as he has only 1 year of control.But would Gallagher plus do it?Galchenyuk?Any type of package?

    They’ll just draft Quinn Hughes and make him play center. That’s the Habs way

  59. Material pocession says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Id give up the 10th to Mtl to get Gallagher……but I dont think Mtl would do it.

    26 yrs old, under control for 3 more years at $3.75M AVV

    I don’t understand moves like this at all. The 10th will get a prospect that is inexpensive, under team control for at least 7 years (during prime production), and exempt from the expansion draft. Those are guarantees. He might end up being better or worse than Gallagher but that’s beside the point. If you get Gallagher for 3 years you have to expose another player to expansion, and when he’s UFA you need to overpay him for declining years of performance. These kinds of trades should be avoided.

  60. Material pocession says:

    bendelson:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    leadfarmer,

    Agreed.Perhaps the Oilers offer the #10 + Kassian for our man, Necas?
    More likely, it’s just wishful thinking…Great player!

    Now this is the kind of trade that I would support.

  61. Andy Dufresne says:

    Material pocession: I don’t understand moves like this at all.The 10th will get a prospect that is inexpensive, under team control for at least 7 years (during prime production), and exempt from the expansion draft.Those are guarantees.He might end up being better or worse than Gallagher but that’s beside the point.If you get Gallagher for 3 years you have to expose another player to expansion, and when he’s UFA you need to overpay him for declining years of performance.These kinds of trades should be avoided.

    Interesting. I view it completely the reverse. There is NO garauntee the 10th works out. Magnus Paajarvi was a 10th. There is no way to predict how many “good” players will be left exposed in the Seattle expansion draft. I would like to challenge for a cup in the next 2 years. Gallagher fits a team need on a value contract.

    Gallagher is the proverbial bird in the hand in this scenario. He was Montreals leading scorer last year 30 goals 54 points. But I respect your opinion. Im sure it is one that is shared by others.

  62. slopitch says:

    Andy Dufresne: Interesting. I view it completely the reverse. There is NO garauntee the 10th works out. Magnus Paajarvi was a 10th. There is no way to predict how many “good” players will be left exposed in the Seattle expansion draft. I would like to challenge for a cup in the next 2 years. Gallagher fits a team need on a value contract.

    Gallagher is the proverbial bird in the hand in this scenario. He was Montreals leading scorer last year 30 goals 54 points.But I respect your opinion. Im sure it is one that is shared by others.

    The 10th pick could be a contributing player for the 2020 window imo. And it would be an ELC contract. A Gallagher type could be available at the TDD for a 1st in 2 years if the other bets work out. Overall Id take the 7 years control of the + upside the pick comes with. Jmo.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whether its Dobson, Bouchard, Boquist, Kotkaniemi, Farabee, Whalstrom, Smith, Valeno, etc. the pick is going to have great value.

    Its is reasonable to predict that anyone drafted will have a very good shot at becoming a top 6 or top 4 player and likely within a few years. No sure things but reasonable.

    What this pick is going to become is a value contract and its essential that this team acquire/develop value contracts consistently over the next few years – its the only way to build a contender with our cap structure.

    No, the pick is not untradeable but, to me, it is unless its in a package bringing back a material player that is on the right side of 25 and signed long term (or perhaps a Klef plus for a signed OEL, for example).

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    With McFadden graduating to pro hockey next year, I’m looking forward to seeing what Samorukov will do with the extra ice time (in particular on the PP).

    I assume Merkley will be back with the Storm for another year.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rafa Nadal: teams scout to me: “15 to 45 is going to be a shit show.” #NH

    I can see the player falling being either Boquist or Bouchard.

    There may be some recency bias with Dobson and Hughes playing longer (Memorial Cup and WHC) and playing well.

    I think the organization might pass on Boquist as I believe he’s the farthest away from the NHL of the tier.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    boopronger:
    Im tired of playing “what if we pass on this guy”. It doesnt matter. Oilers need a top pair d man more then another Pool party or Magnus paairvi. Not saying that pick will get you that, im saying the priorities should lie elsewhere then this pick. If oilers management actually had a track record of getting value around that spot, Id say okay, go with it. But they dont.

    The Oilers need value contracts in the next few years to supplement their core and the higher contracts on the team – this pick is likely to produce a player that provides a value contract.

    I don’t agree the Oilers need a top pairing d-man – if they can find a legit 1/2RD who can transition the puck and play top 4 minutes then I’m absolutely fine with that top 4 core (along with Klef, Larsson and Nurse).

    Current Oiler management has not had a chance to pick around this spot and, when such management worked for their prior organization, they absolutely found value in and around this spot.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    36 percent body fat:
    so we all know Chia pissed away assets.

    So lets look at it this way.We need to tweak, and get rid of bad contracts.We need to find value contracts, by which I mean, cap hit is less relative to other players within the same production.

    We have McDavid.Big game hunting is not the answer.Continuing to draft skill is.No need to ever trade a first rounder going forward.

    Yes, value contracts are the key going forward.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Rondo,

    Wahlstrom would be a dream. USHL and USNDT have been amazing at talent development and forwards that put up those kind of numbers rarely miss lately.

    The numbers he is putting up, including shot metrics, are right up there with the likes of Matthews, Eichel, Connor, etc.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If I’m going at the Canes first I believe Svechnikov is a major talent. If I do and the Canes want to be better now and want to get tougher I’d offer something like

    Nuge Kassian ( maybe retain some) and a 2nd
    For
    #2 Necas and Faulk.

    Maybe Faulk gets better, if not he’s tradeable.

    I love Nuge but I’m think Svechnikov is going to be a better scorer and already has a two way rep and likely is in the NHL next season. Find some inexpensive forward help to be the defensive conscience for Connor or Leon.

    Trades like this do happen. Especially for high end young centres on good contracts.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: As others have mentioned, trading #10 for #15 is too high a price to pay for Mascherin. IF he’s willing to sign you give FLA a 3rd round pick, tops.

    Not to mention the trade would have to happen in the next few days so well before the draft – its too risky as we don’t know who may be available at 10.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If I’m going at the Canes first I believe Svechnikov is a major talent. If I do and the Canes want to be better now and want to get tougher I’d offer something like

    Nuge Kassian ( maybe retain some) and a 2nd
    For
    #2 Necas and Faulk.

    Maybe Faulk gets better, if not he’s tradeable.

    I love Nuge but I’m think Svechnikov is going to be a better scorer and already has a two way rep and likely is in the NHL next season. Find some inexpensive forward help to be the defensive conscience for Connor or Leon.

    Trades like this do happen. Especially for high end young centres on good contracts.

    Wait, Necas and Svechnikov for Nuge, an overpaid 4th liner and a 2nd?

  72. slopitch says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Maybe if Chai was Canes GM would a trade that bad happen for Carolina ha.

  73. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    You forgot that the Canes are throwing in Faulk as a sweetener. That might be a dealbreaker for the Oilers. -:)

  74. Richard S.S. says:

    1) Find a Team or Teams that are breaking it down, to start again.
    2) Find a Team or Teams that are having significant Cap issues.
    3) Find a Team or Teams that have a Player or two who will not sign an extention.
    There is motivation there to make a trade or trades. The GM is willing to deal. That’s where Peter Chiarelli needs to go for what he wants, the prices might be a bit more reasonable.

    Ideally the Oilers want two-three years on an ELC playing on the Team, but the first year should be played in the AHL if not brought straight up. Too often the Oilers waste 1-2 years of an ELC in Junior. That seems wasteful. Signing a Draft Pick to a three-year ELC should be done as late as legal to maximize Cap space.

  75. YKOil says:

    Montreal, Arizona and Detroit are all natural trade-up matches for the Oilers. Montreal, as they can be assured one of Kotkaniemi and Veleno will be there at #10, and Arizona/Detroit both need more in the pipeline. Not saying it is an easy trade, just saying a trade is there.

    Basically means Zadina or Wahlstrom or the RD of your heart’s desire can be there if you want them to be there.

    Hope posters remember that any trade of the #10, for anything but another draft pick or protected player, must have the Expansion Draft factored into it (i.e. the: “it costs more you think” cost).

  76. hunter1909 says:

    My prediction for the SC:

    WASH in 5

    Hunter1909’s reason d’etre: Starved of previous SC success, Ovechkin goes into full on beserk mode starting at face off Game 1 – Vegas manage to win a game and keep it respectable.

    That said, if Vegas win I’m fine with that but Ovechkin simply needs 4 more W’s and he’s in the history books right next to Bobby the Golden Jet Hull.

  77. flea says:

    Richard S.S.,

    The contract slides when the player goes back to Junior. Look at Kailer Yamamoto on capfriendly – still 3 years left. In other words his contract hasn’t officially started yet. (Always wonder if they get any money playing those 9 games).

    So the Oilers don’t have to worry as much about their junior eligible players. As soon as players hit the AHL their contracts start, but for a lot of these players, they wouldn’t accept anything other than an NHL/AHL contract from the team (players like Yamamoto)

  78. hunter1909 says:

    PS: Lose and Ovechkin joins Iginla as another good player who failed to win big.

    Talk about motivation = Ovechkin wins the Conn Smythe Trophy instead

  79. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its is reasonable to predict that anyone drafted will have a very good shot at becoming a top 6 or top 4 player and likely within a few years. No sure things but reasonable.

    I think it is reasonable to assign a probability to whether or not the prospect will become a regular NHL player, and then a further probability for how good an NHL player (top 6 etc). [Not sure if that is what you meant, I’m re-stating for clarity]

    I’m not sure at 10 whether the pick’s likeliest outcome is a top half of the roster player… I haven’t looked at the numbers in a good long while.

    If I’m Chia I’m not actively shopping it, but I am listening to offers.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    Richard S.S.,

    The contract slides when the player goes back to Junior. Look at Kailer Yamamoto on capfriendly – still 3 years left. In other words his contract hasn’t officially started yet. (Always wonder if they get any money playing those 9 games).

    So the Oilers don’t have to worry as much about their junior eligible players. As soon as players hit the AHL their contracts start, but for a lot of these players, they wouldn’t accept anything other than an NHL/AHL contract from the team (players like Yamamoto)

    You are correct regarding contracts and sliding generally but there is the odd exception for additional slide.

    For example, due to a technicality, Safin is eligible to play in the AHL as a teenager next year and his contract would slide while playing pro (in the AHL).

    I believe it would eat up a year of service for the explanation draft exemption status though – not positive on that. Assuming it does, it’s likely a big factor in Jim returning to the Q next year as opposed to The AHL.

  81. Richard S.S. says:

    flea,

    As long an an ELC always slides if a player is in Junior, the Oilers are OK, but the moment an ELC won’t slide when a player is in Junior a costly mistake is being made.

  82. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Off topic, but I am in Winnipeg for business tonight. Any recommendations for dinner or drink? I know there are a couple of posters who live here. Any information would be greatly appreciated.

  83. Woogie63 says:

    Leroy Draisdale:
    Off topic, but I am in Winnipeg for business tonight. Any recommendations for dinner or drink? I know there are a couple of posters who live here. Any information would be greatly appreciated.

    529 Wellington Steakhouse – is the correct answer

  84. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Woogie63,

    Thanks!

  85. Rondo says:

    Brock Otten of OHL Prospects did a Mock Draft. Well done

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2018/05/2018-nhl-mock-draft.html

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Primetime: Woodguy,

    Agree that clearly Montreal is the most centre hungry team in the draft.One of Kotkaniemi or Veleno will be available at 10.Is there anything from the Canadiens that would make you give up the 10th pick outright?Assuming no to Patches as he has only 1 year of control.But would Gallagher plus do it?Galchenyuk?Any type of package?

    Gallagher and Byron are favourites of mine

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    leadfarmer,

    Agreed.Perhaps the Oilers offer the #10 + Kassian for our man, Necas?
    More likely, it’s just wishful thinking…Great player!

    You never know.

    I’d pitch a few things.

  88. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    flea,

    As long an an ELC always slides if a player is in Junior, the Oilers are OK, but the moment an ELC won’t slide when a player is in Junior a costly mistake is being made.

    A contract can only slide until a junior career ends. There’s no way to lose a year of entry when the player is in junior.

  89. Lowetide says:

    YKOil:
    Montreal, Arizona and Detroit are all natural trade-up matches for the Oilers.Montreal, as they can be assured one of Kotkaniemi and Veleno will be there at #10, and Arizona/Detroit both need more in the pipeline.Not saying it is an easy trade, just saying a trade is there.

    Basically means Zadina or Wahlstrom or the RD of your heart’s desire can be there if you want them to be there.

    Hope posters remember that any trade of the #10, for anything but another draft pick or protected player, must have the Expansion Draft factored into it (i.e. the: “it costs more you think” cost).

    Chiarelli deals with Montreal a lot and there are all kinds of attractive trade options (some of them have been mentioned). I wish Patches had three more years on that deal.

  90. Richard S.S. says:

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, (new acquisition/in-house) is the 1st Line.
    (New acquisition/in-house), Leon Draisaitl, (new acquisition/in-house) is the 2nd Line.
    Everyone else works very cheap (the Oilers aren’t quite there yet). The top lines need to play 45-47 minutes per 60, if not more. The remaining 6-8 guys can suck up the other 13-15 minutes, or less.

    At least the Defense is a bit more settled, if not yet traded. Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larson are 1st Pair. Andrej Sekera, (new acquisition/in-house are 2nd Pair. Kris Russell, Ethan Bear, Darnel Nurse and Matthew Benn8ng could fill out the 3rd Pairing.

  91. deardylan says:

    Any one watching TSN’s NHL under Oath? #CTE

  92. Oilman99 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If I’m going at the Canes first I believe Svechnikov is a major talent. If I do and the Canes want to be better now and want to get tougher I’d offer something like

    Nuge Kassian ( maybe retain some) and a 2nd
    For
    #2 Necas and Faulk.

    Maybe Faulk gets better, if not he’s tradeable.

    I love Nuge but I’m think Svechnikov is going to be a better scorer and already has a two way rep and likely is in the NHL next season. Find some inexpensive forward help to be the defensive conscience for Connor or Leon.

    Trades like this do happen. Especially for high end young centres on good contracts.

    I think you must have taken some bad drugs, Nuge is far more valuable, such a deal makes no sense.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide,

    A contract can only slide until a junior career ends.

    For players from the CHL this is true.

    The wording in the CBA is age based though.

    Given that CHL players cannot play in the AHL for the year(s) that their ELC would slide in the AHL, it never happens.

    If you draft a player from outside the CHL and stick him in the AHL right away (which you can’t do with players from the CHL) the ELC can slide there too.

    I’ll dig up the CBA section that addresses this.

  94. Oilman99 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Interesting. I view it completely the reverse. There is NO garauntee the 10th works out. Magnus Paajarvi was a 10th. There is no way to predict how many “good” players will be left exposed in the Seattle expansion draft. I would like to challenge for a cup in the next 2 years. Gallagher fits a team need on a value contract.

    Gallagher is the proverbial bird in the hand in this scenario. He was Montreals leading scorer last year 30 goals 54 points.But I respect your opinion. Im sure it is one that is shared by others.

    You’re dreaming if you think Gallager would be traded for a tenth pick. He is Montreal’s best forward.

  95. Oilman99 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, (new acquisition/in-house) is the 1st Line.
    (New acquisition/in-house), Leon Draisaitl, (new acquisition/in-house) is the 2nd Line.
    Everyone else works very cheap (the Oilers aren’t quite there yet).The top lines need to play 45-47 minutes per 60, if not more.The remaining 6-8 guys can suck up the other 13-15 minutes, or less.

    At least the Defense is a bit more settled, if not yet traded.Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larson are 1st Pair.Andrej Sekera, (new acquisition/in-house are 2nd Pair. Kris Russell, Ethan Bear, Darnel Nurse and Matthew Benn8ng could fill out the 3rd Pairing.

    If this team is going to succeed, they need to add atleast one top six forward to ensure Drai has somebody to play with, to make two competetive top lines. There is no room to add a second pairing d-man,it will have to come from within.

  96. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Thanks for the suggestion Woogie, but I ended up at a place close to my hotel. I’m at Brazen Hill if any Lowetideans local to the peg want to come watch the game. Nice place, lots of craft beer and the food looks good too

  97. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Lowetide,

    A contract can only slide until a junior career ends.

    For players from the CHL this is true.

    The wording in the CBA is age based though.

    Given that CHL players cannot play in the AHL for the year(s) that their ELC would slide in the AHL, it never happens.

    If you draft a player from outside the CHL and stick him in the AHL right away (which you can’t do with players from the CHL)the ELC can slide there too.

    I’ll dig up the CBA section that addresses this.

    Yes. Junior as in Canadian hockey. Europeans are a different animal. I think, might be wrong, that an NHL team drafting a player from a Euro league could see them stay where they are, go to Canadian junior, turn pro in the AHL or NHL, or even attend U.S. college.

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wait, Necas and Svechnikov for Nuge, an overpaid 4th liner and a 2nd?

    It depends how you value Nuge. I think the Oilers undervalue their own players. Lucic brought a ton to Boston, Nuge is a young top end 2 way centre on what is now a great contract and under control. If nobody wants to pay no problem, keep him.

    The trade to me is primarily Nuge and a second for 2 and Necas. Nuge to me is worth more than a #2 straight up. Necas perhaps more than a second round, so the value balances. Neither Canes piece is an established high end player, yet. The Oilers carry most of he risk here, are looking to broaden the talent base.

    The Canes get one of the best young centres and they need a centre. If they want to get better sooner rather than later, which I think is likely because of financial pressures, this does it and the player is quality in prime not an older fading player.

    There were mentions of wanting to get harder to play, and cap considerations both ways. Kassian scratches their itch and they relieve themselves of Faulk’s salary which they want to do, the Oilers want another RD that can move the puck.

    Faulk may recover some game as many do after a move, and if not he has no movement clauses.

    I see value moving both ways filling needs for both teams potentially. Once in a while we see bigger player movements, and significant pieces involved. Maybe it’s different around the edges but to me it’s realistic. Most teams don’t trade players like Nuge for less.

  99. deardylan says:

    The music just upstaged Don Cherry and whole pre-broadcast. They can’t keep up with Vegas atmosphere. Is this a new era in hockey taking place? The only thing permanent in life is change. #VegasRingAnnouncer

  100. Munny says:

    Game day. Finally.

    Congrats to both pennant winners.

    Now go to your respective corners and come out fighting!

  101. Munny says:

    Munny,

    Lol, I had no idea Buffer was coming out seconds later.

  102. innercitysmytty says:

    bendelson,

    I don’t have much time for following junior age players. What is it about Necas that makes him such a surefire prospect? On the surface his numbers don’t look great other than this past world juniors. I know nothing about the league he plays in though, so just curious what people see in him.

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oilman99: I think you must have taken some bad drugs, Nuge is far more valuable, such a deal makes no sense.

    Ha! Funny how some think the Canes would never do it and you think the Oilers wouldn’t.

    I lean to your side, 2 and Necas, neither NHL players with no guarantee they’ll cover their draft position for an established young affordable first line two way C might not be enough.

    But we’ve seen so many highway robberies on the Oilers perspective is hard.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oilman99: You’re dreaming if you think Gallager would be traded for a tenth pick. He is Montreal’s best forward.

    The thing is many GMs do unwise things, it happens yearly, it would be nice to be on the right side of it for a change.

  105. Munny says:

    Knights draw first blood. Colin the Miller on the PP.

  106. deardylan says:

    Washington knocked down in first round. Vegas is so mean they make medicine sick.

  107. JimmyV1965 says:

    Will be real interesting to see what happens with minor hockey in Vegas. Numbers will shoot through the roof.

  108. Munny says:

    CAPS EVEN IT UP. CONNOLLY WITH THE DEFLECTION.

    #ALLCAPS

  109. deardylan says:

    Vegas had a plan until they got a shoulder in the face

  110. Munny says:

    Caps use their goal legs and take the lead. Backstrom puts away a fanned wraparound.

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    CAPS EVEN IT UP. CONNOLLY WITH THE DEFLECTION.

    #ALLCAPS

    Here it comes.

    #oviwantsitbadsotheyalldo

  112. Munny says:

    Not sure how Count Orlov got away with that.

  113. Lowetide says:

    This is going be a crazy final.

  114. Munny says:

    Even stevens. Karlsson picks it up off the very active boards in Vegas.

  115. deardylan says:

    I don’t think Holtby’s pads can take the Vegas abuse.

  116. deardylan says:

    Only in Vegas Baby!!!

    Every champion in this final was once a expansion team who refused to stop expanding.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: A contract can only slide until a junior career ends. There’s no way to lose a year of entry when the player is in junior.

    What if the player is an over-ager in junior? Not that we would send him back to Spokane but, if we did send Yamamoto to Spokane next year as a 20 year old, would his contract still slide?

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bill Daley says latest projections will have next year’s cap between $78M and $82M.

    That’s not good.

    We better hope the players envoke the escalator to some extent.

    If we re-signed:

    Nurse at $4M
    Benning at $1.75M
    Strome at $3M
    Caggulia at $1.25M

    And replaced Pak, Slep, Cammy with players under $1M, we are at $80M and that is with a bonus cushion of $1.25M for Jesse (could be $2.5M).

    There is no cap space.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    Nuge to me is worth more than a #2 straight up.

    This may normally be true but I don’t think this year’s #2 is a normal number 2 – if it wasn’t for Dahlin, Svechnikov would be talked about in a similar way as to what Auston Matthews was.

    He is like Malkin in 2004 (not saying he will be quite that good but….).

  120. Munny says:

    Holtby with some greasy rebounds and the Black Smith bangs one past him

  121. deardylan says:

    Knights forecheck is just as deadly on the rink as it is off the rink.

  122. JimmyV1965 says:

    They’re running wild in Montreal speculating a trade of Patches for any combination of RNH, Klef and the 10th. It makes Oiler trade speculation look downright reasonable.

  123. Munny says:

    Carlson into a wide open net. Back to even.

  124. Spooky Lynx says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bill Daley says latest projections will have next year’s cap between $78M and $82M.

    That’s not good.

    Hasn’t this always been the projection? Are you just worried they haven’t culled the lower end of the range?

  125. Professor Q says:

    Yikes. If that wasn’t a targeted head punch by Tuch…

  126. Professor Q says:

    I really do miss Perron and his mascara.

  127. deardylan says:

    Getting Scored on Motivates the Caps. It Makes Them Want To Punish the Knights More…”

  128. deardylan says:

    Ovechkins stick is steady, deadly, locked and loaded, ready to explode any moment, side to side movement, dodging Vegas’s forecheck…

    Waiting for that moment to slash, smash and strike the puck over Fleurys shoulder into the webbed abyss.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spooky Lynx: Hasn’t this always been the projection? Are you just worried they haven’t culled the lower end of the range?

    Essentially.

    If its below $80M, we’ll need to shed to be cap compliant (even taking in to account replacing the outgoing Slep, Cammy and Pak with 3 players under $1M each).

    I’m not sure most realize how little cap space we have. We are at $80M for a 23 man roster with the three replacements above and signing:

    Nurse @ 4M
    Caggulia @ $1.25<
    Benning @ $1.75M
    Strome @ $4M

    Accounting for Jesse's bonuses of $1.25M.

  130. Munny says:

    Shire Reeves ties it up at fours after Wilson gave the Caps the early 3rd period lead..

  131. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Are the caps d going to do any defending in front of their own net?

  132. Professor Q says:

    The goals don’t stop coming.

  133. Munny says:

    From behind and waaaay late. Surely Wilson will at least go to the box?

  134. Professor Q says:

    Apparently I missed an obvious crosscheck. Refs and commentators are going with it.

    If so the Golden Knights have gotten a lot of leeway these playoffs.

  135. deardylan says:

    Sure This Game Is Fixed, Reaves Fixed It With His Stick Hand

  136. Professor Q says:

    Munny:
    From behind and waaaay late.Surely Wilson will at least go to the box?

    He’ll be awarded a goal perhaps?

  137. Munny says:

    A Nosek for the net. Huge goal for the Kaniggits.

    That’s 3 or 4 plays he’s made tonight that have impressed.

  138. deardylan says:

    “Down Go CAPS! Down Go CAPS! down goes caps!”

    KO?

  139. Professor Q says:

    Simply ridiculous.

  140. flyfish1168 says:

    Wilson hit was late. Suspendable offence

  141. Professor Q says:

    flyfish1168:
    Wilson hit was late. Suspendable offence

    It really was, and Wilson has been playing dirty all playoffs, but it was inevitable with the refs not calling anything and having those situations lead to goals, unfortunately. They reaped what they sowed, thanks to a dickhead.

  142. rickithebear says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “Who on these lists would you trade the pick for?”

    All the guy’s I’d want more than Kotkaniemi are untouchable.

    JimmyV1965:
    What if the Oil could trade the pick for Max Domi ++. It would be ideal if the Yotes had another first round pick to offer as well, but they don’t. Maybe you get Tyler Steenbergen in addition.

    Max domi
    Draft age NHLE (.618)
    19 evg 21eva 40 evp
    11ppg 17ppa 28 ppp

    Draft +1 age NhLE (.447)
    12evg 16eva 28 evp
    7ppg 18ppa 25ppp
    2shg 2sha 4 shp

    Draft + 2 age NHLE (.374)
    10evg 19eva 29 Evp
    6 ppg 18ppa 24 ppp
    1shg 1 sha 2 shp

    His 3 junior years suggest
    12evg 21eva 33evp
    8ppg 18ppa 26ppp
    1shg 1sha 2shp

    His 3 nhl seasons suggest
    12evg 24eva 36evp
    1ppg 8 ppa 9 ppp
    0shg 1 sha 1shp
    The junior pp production is unrealistic.

    We have Strome as a 3c with nhl years suggesting
    12evg 18eva 30evp
    2ppg 4ppa 6 ppp

    Domi has always been overrated.
    Center every time.

  143. deardylan says:

    Eye of the Fleury

  144. flyfish1168 says:

    Professor Q: It really was, and Wilson has been playing dirty all playoffs, but it was inevitable with the refs not calling anything and having those situations lewd to goals, unfortunately. They reaped what they sowed, thanks to a dickhead.

    If the NHL wants to do the right thing, the hit will be reviewed and Wilson will be suspended again. This time it should be under a repeat offender

  145. Munny says:

    Nees win! Nees win! Nees win!

    Whaddagame.

    I don’t think either ‘tender was really in his comfort zone, but both made some huge saves.

    Tremendous skating, hitting, passing, checking game.

  146. Munny says:

    flyfish1168,

    I doubt it will even be reviewed. The head wasn’t targeted. And if it is reviewed, then shouldn’t Perron’s antics come under scrutiny too?

  147. Professor Q says:

    flyfish1168: If the NHL wants to do the right thing, the hit will be reviewed and Wilson will be suspended again. This time it should be under a repeat offender

    Absolutely. If they truly want to send a message then it should really go from 3 games to what? 25? I know they’ll reduce it by a lot for the playoffs though. And they won’t even look at Golden Knights players’ actions.

  148. deardylan says:

    Say goodnight to the Bad Guy Wilson who orders rocks on rocks in a dirty glass and Don Cherry’s Voice. Time to go to the afterparty #VegasBaby

  149. Rondo says:

    How can the refs be so bad in the Stanley Cup.

  150. JimmyV1965 says:

    rickithebear:
    Max domi
    Draft age NHLE (.618)
    19 evg 21eva 40 evp
    11ppg 17ppa 28 ppp

    Draft +1 age NhLE (.447)
    12evg 16eva 28 evp
    7ppg 18ppa 25ppp
    2shg 2sha 4 shp

    Draft + 2 age NHLE (.374)
    10evg 19eva 29 Evp
    6 ppg 18ppa 24 ppp
    1shg 1 sha 2 shp

    His 3 junior years suggest
    12evg 21eva 33evp
    8ppg 18ppa 26ppp
    1shg 1sha 2shp

    His 3 nhl seasons suggest
    12evg 24eva 36evp
    1ppg 8 ppa 9 ppp
    0shg 1 sha 1shp
    The junior pp production is unrealistic.

    We have Strome as a 3c with nhl years suggesting
    12evg 18eva 30evp
    2ppg 4ppa 6 ppp

    Domi has always been overrated.
    Center every time.

    Thanks Ricki. Those numbers are blahhhhh

  151. Professor Q says:

    I definitely should not gamble, the signs say.

    Going for Celtics and Rockets. Of course Cavs Warriors v 4.0 would squash that.

    History before us.

  152. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965: Thanks Ricki. Those numbers are blahhhhh

    Top 60 centres avg 15g 38p last 2 seasons
    Strome suggests 81gm 14g and 36p as a center last 2 seasons
    Makes him Top 60-70c material.

    #1C Mcdavid 36g 104p 12.5m
    16% of 78m, 15.65% of 80m, 15.25 of 82m cap
    #10C Draisaitl 27g 73p 8.5m
    10.9% of 78m, 10.625% of 80m, 10.365% of 82m
    #46C RNH 19g 42p 6m
    7.6925% of 78m, 7.5% of 80m, 7.3175% of 82m
    #70C Strome 14g 36p #70c makes 3.85m
    78m = 4m
    80m = 4.1m
    82m = 4.21m

  153. russ99 says:

    The only way trading #10 makes sense is to trade with an NHL contract for a player that makes an obvious impact.

    Otherwise make the pick and in 2-3 years you have a similar player to what’s on those lists.

    I’m ready for a big move, this team needs to turn a corner and we’re not going to do it with Strome, Benning, Puljujarvi, Benson or Yamamoto anytime soon. I know people cling to prospects and favorite players but I’d rather win than keep favorites.

    Running out the same team with a few minor tweaks in the bottom six means we’re out of the playoffs in January again.

    The Bettman conspiracy theories are running riot after that game.

  154. flyfish1168 says:

    Munny:
    flyfish1168,

    I doubt it will even be reviewed. The head wasn’t targeted. And if it is reviewed, then shouldn’t Perron’s antics come under scrutiny too?

    Yes head was not a target. Blind side and late. So if I was the knights all the Caps stars and wilson himself should be all getting 2 second late, blind side hits. New stand set. Next 2.5 second late blindside. So where does this all stop?

  155. Professor Q says:

    flyfish1168: Yes head was not a target. Blind side and late. So if I was the knights all the Caps stars and wilson himself should be all getting 2 second late, blind side hits. New stand set. Next 2.5 second late blindside. So where does this all stop?

    Goalies will have broken legs, I guess.

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