Leon the Lion

The one true thing we know about the Edmonton Oilers is they are beyond formidable with Connor McDavid on the ice. He tilts the playing surface, addles the defense, muddles goaltenders and wreaks havoc across the NHL. It’s the rest of the story that is such a grave concern for the hockey club. Late in the season, Todd McLellan moved Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to Connor McDavid’s line and asked Draisaitl to push the river all on his own.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your hot liquid. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

LEON DRAISAITL COMPARABLES

via hockey-reference, first four years of career, through age 22

Leon moved up from .72 to .77 season over season, so he’s on a nicer street in a very good neighbourhood. It’s disappointing, but I think a lot of Oilers fans aren’t going to enjoy his career in Edmonton because the cap number skews the view. For me, Leon is a bona fide member of a fantastic group of Oilers I have had the privilege to enjoy playing in our city over many years. He’s such a quality player.

  • 2016-17 with McDavid: 53.9 CF 5×5; 2.22 5×5/60 scoring  
  • 2016-17 w/o  McDavid: 47.7 CF 5×5; 1.80 5×5/60 scoring 

I’ve read a lot of posts and even some articles lately wondering why the Oilers didn’t move Nuge to the 97 line a long time ago, but I think the wowy numbers hold the key. In 2016-17, Leon could deliver respectable offense but the possession battle was being lost. That’s not all on LD, but McLellan ran with the veteran RNH at No. 2 center in 2016-17, which I believe was the correct choice.

  • 2017-18 with McDavid: 54.4 CF 5×5; 2.65 5×5/60 scoring
  • 2017-18 w/o  McDavid: 50.4 CF 5×5; 2.01 5×5/60 scoring

These are the numbers of a man who looks ready to push the river. If Peter Chiarelli can get him two good linemates the Oilers should have two brilliant scoring lines in 2018-19. It’s a big damned deal. One thing I’m thrilled by: When I kept arguing Nuge needed to be No. 2 center every fall, it was pushing back against trading him. It looks like the window for trading RNH has passed, it’s the right call and I’m pleased management hung around long enough to see how he shines.

The combine list is an important item. NHL teams will spend a few days testing, interviewing and assessing the most talented players in this year’s draft. One of the most interesting aspects of the combine is the stragglers. That’s my name for kids who aren’t among Central’s 100 (or so) top talents but have been invited (usually by request of an NHL team wanting to get a closer look). Here are a few of those outliers.

  • RD Seth Barton. BCHL defender (Trail Smoke Eaters) is 6.02 and regarded as a physical and intelligent defender. Tough to project tier two offense for blue. He’s off to UMass-Lowell fall 2019.
  • LD Michael Callahan. Mobile two-way defender with good speed. The USHL has a ton of good young players in this draft.
  • LC Eric Florchuk. Not a strong draft for WHL forwards, Florchuk was a fairly high bantam pick for Victoria but never found the range. He’s either a tweener or a sleeper.
  • L Liam Kirk. A lot of buzz about this player, from Great Britain. I don’t know how much offense he’ll bring but this is the most excitement we’ve seen from the rock since Tony Hand.

KEITH GRETZKY LAST JUNE

  • Keith Gretzky: “You don’t want to force the hand and you try and take the best player, of course. We’re trying to determine who is the best player. If it’s close, since we have a lot of defencemen coming up, we’ll look towards a forward but right now we’ll look for the best player.” Source

That was a year ago, the Oilers chose Kailer Yamamoto in the first found and four of seven selections were forwards on draft weekend. Although the Gretzky quote is from June 2017, I think the thrust still applies. The Oilers need forwards. A quick look at the 20 best prospects in the system (my quick estimate, 50 NHL games or less) proves the point.

The best forward prospects are on right-wing, center is looking better and left-wing needs help. Left defense has three good prospects, and right defense has two or three depending on who you believe. Stuart Skinner would be the only prospect goalie on an NHL trajectory (with a long way to go). How many impact prospects are on this list? I mean a starting goalie, top 4D, or top 6F/No. 3 center?

Draft +1 Forwards (CHL)

  1. Leon Draisaitl 1.66
  2. Kailer Yamamoto 1.60
  3. Tobias Rieder 1.40
  4. Curtis Hamilton 1.32
  5. Kirill Maksimov 1.29
  6. Ryan Martindale 1.28
  7. Tyler Benson 1.27
  8. Greg Chase 1.21
  9. Tyler Pitlick 1.11
  10. Ostap Safin 0.95
  11. Marco Roy 0.90
  12. Jackson Houck 0.88
  13. Daniil Zharkov 0.73
  14. Drew Czerwonka 0.63
  15. Kyle Platzer 0.55
  16. Mitch Moroz 0.49
  17. Travis Ewanyk 0.36

This is points per game. I wrote about the second round over at The Athletic yesterday, this is something I was going to use as part of the article but it didn’t make the cut. I find it fascinating to see the gap between the NHLers (in yellow) and the tweeners, it’s such a simple yet informative statistic. I have the 5×5 numbers (‘the lesson of Rob Schremp’) and will run tomorrow morning.

As we discussed yesterday, simply not worth acquiring a player outside his entry deal and you’d want that acquisition to step right into the NHL. That comes with risk (Griffin Reinhart) and you have to hit a home run at No. 10 overall. It may come down to Boqvist versus Bouchard, or Kotkaniemi versus Boqvist.

A fascinating list, recommend you have a look. One thing that we know already about this draft? After No. 10 or so, it’s all over hell’s half acre. This is one of the more original takes I’ve seen. Well done.

At $80 million the Oilers can make it go, at $82 million there’s a chance the team could add a reasonable upgrade at right wing and still land under the cap. The table below (I ran this a week ago) shows Edmonton adding three wingers for $5 million and getting in just under an $80 million cap.

THE LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show this morning, starts at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic! We’ll chat about what value would be required to move No. 10 overall and I’ll ask Jon how many future top 6F’s, top 4D’s and starting goalies he sees in the Oilers system.
  • Josh Eberley from HOOP Magazine. A wild ride through the divisional finals leaves us with a Groundhog Day final. Can Lebron climb Everest?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Viva Las Vegas, and what can the Oilers learn from the Golden Knights?

Text 10-1260, twitter Lowetide. See you on the radio!

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141 Responses to "Leon the Lion"

  1. Mr DeBakey says:

    Ryan Strome has to be qualified at $3mm.

    $2.15mm seems a little rich for 3rd pairing d-man.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Ryan Strome has to be qualified at $3mm.

    $2.15mm seems a little rich for 3rd pairing d-man.

    Ryan Strome can be signed for less, suspect the Oilers will attempt to do so. Agree on Benning, hopefully Edmonton gets him in the $1.5 million range.

  3. Rondo says:

    Brock Otten of OHL Prospects did a Mock Draft.

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2018/05/2018-nhl-mock-draft.html

  4. PennersPancakes says:

    Seems like mgmt. views Nurse as part of the core so no question they would want to keep him around long term but… Is there a chance his contract comes after the rest of the roster is “secured”?

    I wouldn’t necessary want this but If theres a scenario where giving Nurse a bridge allows another material player to join the team does Chia risk a breakout season/way higher AAV next contract? Would this be recoverable in terms of cap management? Seems he usually likes handing out big long term contracts but being on the hot seat might mean short sighted deals/more bets.

  5. Lowetide says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Seems like mgmt. views Nurse as part of the core so no question they would want to keep him around long term but… Is there a chance his contract comes after the rest of the roster is “secured”?

    I wouldn’t necessary want this but If theres a scenario where giving Nurse a bridge allows another material player to join the team does Chia risk a breakout season/way higher AAV next contract? Would this be recoverable in terms of cap management? Seems he usually likes handing out big long term contracts but being on the hot seat might mean short sighted deals/more bets.

    I would bridge him for sure. We don’t know what he is, give it at least one more year.

  6. Seananniganz says:

    Hey LT just curious, when you mention the CF numbers of players who play with and without each other where have those come from?

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    Rondo,

    2 for 2 on the draft lists today… Dobson now in the top 5… I figured this would happen… sure Cherry’s segment on him last week helped this along… I see the Rangers screwing us either way… best case is Bouchard for D…

  8. Yeti says:

    Rondo,

    Would be happy with Boqvist, no?

  9. dustrock says:

    Just have to say Pronman’ article on draft boards is fantastic.

    The discrepancy between consensus lists and teams’ actual draft boards is fascinating.

  10. RexLibris says:

    I’ve seen Wahlstrom range from 4th OV to 11th in various (reputable) draft lists. If he fell to 10 I would be ecstatic.

    That said, keeping the pick is the right decision. Even if the Oilers chose wrong and a better player fell, they’d still likely improve their prospect depth and thus the team, so weak is their farm system at the moment.

  11. godot10 says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Seems like mgmt. views Nurse as part of the core so no question they would want to keep him around long term but… Is there a chance his contract comes after the rest of the roster is “secured”?

    I wouldn’t necessary want this but If theres a scenario where giving Nurse a bridge allows another material player to join the team does Chia risk a breakout season/way higher AAV next contract? Would this be recoverable in terms of cap management? Seems he usually likes handing out big long term contracts but being on the hot seat might mean short sighted deals/more bets.

    The draft compensation is such that Nurse is an attractive offer sheet candidate, if you try to bridge him.

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Seananniganz:
    Hey LT just curious, when you mention the CF numbers of players who play with and without each other where have those come from?

    I’m not LT, but I can help: http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php

  13. Lowetide says:

    Seananniganz:
    Hey LT just curious, when you mention the CF numbers of players who play with and without each other where have those come from?

    It’s from naturalstattrick. If you go into the player profile and click teammates, it all comes up.

  14. npanciroli says:

    I admittedly don’t know much about this draft and have only read a little but Evan Bouchard looks great on paper. Great numbers, size and RHD.

    Looks better than Hughes, Dobson or Boqvist – but really I’ve never watched any of these players play.

  15. Cassandra says:

    Pronman’s essay linked above should be required reading for anyone who wants to discuss the draft.

    If you haven’t read it, then your opinion on all draft topics is hopelessly uninformed, because you simply do not understand how the draft works.

  16. Dustylegnd says:

    “As we discussed yesterday, simply not worth acquiring a player outside his entry deal and you’d want that acquisition to step right into the NHL. That comes with risk (Griffin Reinhart) and you have to hit a home run at No. 10 overall. It may come down to Boqvist versus Bouchard, or Kotkaniemi versus Boqvist.”

    Based on my anecdotal observations over the last few years, Stauffer is a conduit for Oilers management, back in Feb/Mar he signalled that Chia and McLellan would not be fired. Stauff has now announced that the draft pick won’t be traded, good news indeed

    Leon now runs the risk of being the latest tragic Oiler, he has a very good agent in Mike Liut, Liut is an agent that insists on win lose negotiations,and has a ruthless reputation as an extractor of maximum contract value for his clients. The negotiations between Chia and Liut were very likely to result in a poor value proposition for the Oilers.

    Leon had excellent chemistry with Hall, put up awesome numbers, leading to Chia thinking he could trade Hall without consequence while simultaneously over estimating Leon’s ability to push the river on his own. The playoffs heater by Leon ensured a very very rich contract for him.

    The Oilers desperately need to find and develop the Ying to Leon’s Yang, enabling Leon and his line to win the puck possession battle while posting 80 plus points per year for the next 7 years.

    If Leon is unable to control possession statistics while putting up big numbers either 5 x 5 or somehow dominating on the PP….he runs the risk of becoming the new Jason Arnott….that is the reality of being “paid too much” in the Edmonton market

  17. Cassandra says:

    dustrock:
    Just have to say Pronman’ article on draft boards is fantastic.

    The discrepancy between consensus lists and teams’ actual draft boards is fascinating.

    This cannot be repeated enough. It is fascinating. The implication is that if you do average in the draft you are doing terribly, because someone else is going to be killing it.

    For instance, these are the players Pronman would have drafted if he picked in the middle of each round the last 7 years.

    Nathan Beaulieu
    Nikita Kucherov
    Alexei Marchenko
    Teuvo Teravainen
    Anton Slepyshev
    Nikita Gusev
    Pavel Buchnevich
    Anthony Duclair
    Victor Arvidsson
    Sonny Milano
    Brayden Point
    Sebastian Aho (D)
    Matthew Barzal
    Oliver Kylington
    Dante Fabbro
    Eeli Tolvanen

    That is killing it. If you go with consensus you are losing. If you don’t get 7 players inside your top 50 or 60 you are doing it wrong.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: This cannot be repeated enough.It is fascinating.The implication is that if you do average in the draft you are doing terribly, because someone else is going to be killing it.

    For instance, these are the players Pronman would have drafted if he picked in the middle of each round the last 7 years.

    Nathan Beaulieu
    Nikita Kucherov
    Alexei Marchenko
    Teuvo Teravainen
    Anton Slepyshev
    Nikita Gusev
    Pavel Buchnevich
    Anthony Duclair
    Victor Arvidsson
    Sonny Milano
    Brayden Point
    Sebastian Aho (D)
    Matthew Barzal
    Oliver Kylington
    Dante Fabbro
    Eeli Tolvanen

    That is killing it. If you go with consensus you are losing.If you don’t get 7 players inside your top 50 or 60 you are doing it wrong.

    Now do all the people he missed.

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    Pronman’s essay linked above should be required reading for anyone who wants to discuss the draft.

    If you haven’t read it, then your opinion on all draft topics is hopelessly uninformed, because you simply do not understand how the draft works.

    I’m really trying to understand why you say stuff like this. I really don’t get it. Are you just being provocative? I thought I didn’t know enuf because I haven’t actually watched most of these guys play. I assume you have watched them all extensively. Or is reading Pronman enough to satisfy the opinion requirements?

  20. Bling says:

    I disagree with your bit on Drai, LT. I love watching Drai play, and I think he is appreciated by most sensible folk. For those who do not appreciate him, consider this:

    LD had some injury issues, terrible line mates outside of 97 (Hi Milan!), played on an abysmal PP unit, and still managed to put up good numbers. That is a hell of a lot of adversity to fight through!

    Even if you think Drai is overpaid — I don’t — what kind of difference are we talking? One million? I think he was full value last season.

    There’s really not at all anything to write home about here, considering Lucic made 6 last year for being sub replacement level for half a season and Russell being a third pairing guy at 4 million and Chia being paid anything at all.

    Here’s another way of putting it: If LD’s hit was 7.5 and CMD’s 13.5, would you be happy? If so, give your head a shake. Worrying about Drai’s cap hit while the roof is leaking and the kitchen is on fire is asinine.

    Our. Best. Players. Are. Not. The. Problem.

  21. Side says:

    Cassandra: bashes posters for appealing to authority

    Also Cassandra: tells everyone to appeal to specific authority and if they don’t they will be wrong

    Can’t make this up.

  22. Munny says:

    dustrock: The discrepancy between consensus lists and teams’ actual draft boards is fascinating.

    There is no such thing as a consensus list after the top 10, and within the top 10 there is only Bobby Mac’s, so “list”, not “lists”.

    Sorry, for picking nits, but the notion of “consensus” say at pick 21 gives a false impression of how that number is derived and what it means.

  23. Munny says:

    LT said,

    I’ve read a lot of posts and even some articles lately wondering why the Oilers didn’t move Nuge to the 97 line a long time ago, but I think the wowy numbers hold the key.

    My opinion–and obviously the mileage of others may vary–is that there was also no point in putting the two players together until CMD became a confident and consistent shooter. And that fact needed to be established first (as well as Drai driving a line). that didn’t happen till the calendar read 2018.

    There was no point in pairing them in October despite the angst spilled over this decision.

  24. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: I would bridge him for sure. We don’t know what he is, give it at least one more year.

    Totally agree, plus if the cap goes up next year then the room is there to sign a long term deal in the 4or5m range.

  25. Munny says:

    LT, I don’t see Mantha in your chart.

    Is this just an oversight, or is it your concern for the injury?

  26. Oilman99 says:

    If he is worth over $8mil, Drai has to do a much better job of driving his own line and play at a faster pace like Wheeler and Sheiffle.

  27. treevojo says:

    godot10: The draft compensation is such that Nurse is an attractive offer sheet candidate, if you try to bridge him.

    History dictates that the chances of this happening are extremely slim.

    Just because you continuelly post it does not make it anymore likely to happen.

    But keep on keeping on

  28. Side says:

    Bling:

    Even if you think Drai is overpaid — I don’t — what kind of difference are we talking? One million? I think he was full value last season.

    If Drai was the only overpaid player on the team it wouldn’t be a problem. But Chia seems to default to overpaying. Overpaying 1 player by 1 million is fine. Overpaying 5 players by +1million becomes a problem.

  29. dustrock says:

    Munny: There is no such thing as a consensus list after the top 10, and within the top 10 there is only Bobby Mac’s, so “list”, not “lists”.

    Sorry, for picking nits, but the notion of “consensus” say at pick 21 gives a false impression of how that number is derived and what it means.

    Yeah, I’d call this nitpicking.

    The point is, at least for the first 2 rounds, if not the first 3, people look to where players were ranked on Bob’s list, ISS, etc.

    So they can label as a “reach”, or “going off the board”, etc.

    The point of the Pronman article is to remind people that teams have their own lists, and some teams only have around 75 players ranked, because it’s unlikely all their targets will be picked.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: I would bridge him for sure. We don’t know what he is, give it at least one more year.

    Same. 2 x $3.25M gives Chairelli time to divest the Russell and Sekera contracts without forcing a trade and thus losing it so badly it affects the cap going forward. Russell in 2019 if Sekera returns to form, Sekera in 2020 if Nurse and Klefbom take ownership of the top-4 left side.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    I like the roster construct above, but would prefer to sign a veteran 4C (Vermette would be ideal) and utilize Khaira on Draisaitl’s wing.

  32. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: I would bridge him for sure. We don’t know what he is, give it at least one more year.

    I think it is obvious what Nurse is! He is worst case scenario a top three defenseman. Given age and the wisdom of this blog that states the new best thing is speed Darnel has it in spades as he has shown! Given his strength, durability and steady progress to bridge him would be a bad bet depending of course how much he is asking. At 4.5 averaged over max duration I believe he would represent very good value!

  33. ArmchairGM says:

    Yeti:
    Rondo,

    Would be happy with Boqvist, no?

    Delighted!

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    Cassandra:
    Pronman’s essay linked above should be required reading for anyone who wants to discuss the draft.

    If you haven’t read it, then your opinion on all draft topics is hopelessly uninformed, because you simply do not understand how the draft works.

    So Pronman is the only source of draft knowledge in the world?? I couldn’t possibly understand how the draft works unless I read one specific article about it?!

  35. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Cassandra:
    Pronman’s essay linked above should be required reading for anyone who wants to discuss the draft.

    If you haven’t read it, then your opinion on all draft topics is hopelessly uninformed, because you simply do not understand how the draft works.

    I read it, and it says every team has a list of players it likes and tries to draft. They all have different opinions.

    That sounds exactly like the draft talk around here to me.

  36. OiLNATION says:

    Nuge-Mcd-Rattie
    Lucic-Drai-Pulju
    Khaira-Strome-Vanek
    Caggiula- Ryan- Kassian
    Aberg and Pirri

    These forward lines are way better imo.

  37. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Oilman99:
    If he is worth over $8mil, Drai has to do a much better job of driving his own line and play at a faster pace like Wheeler and Sheiffle.

    Agreed but they have help, Drai has been dragging players around and still scores well 5v5. Give him two true top 6 wingers and he’ll earn his pay and play better both ways.

    I can’t wait to see McDavid with a couple of true first line wingers, yikes.

  38. Yeti says:

    pts2pndr: I think it is obvious what Nurse is! He is worst case scenario a top three defenseman. Given age and the wisdom of this blog that states the new best thing is speed Darnel has it in spades as he has shown!Given his strength, durability and steady progress to bridge him would be a bad bet depending of course how much he is asking. At 4.5 averaged over max duration I believe he would represent very good value!

    I’m not entirely certain what you mean by ‘top three defensemen’, but the question for the Oil is whether he could anchor a top-pairing or whether he really needs to be played on the second-pairing to be successful. I don’t think that’s at all clear yet: at different parts of the season either outcome seemed possible.

  39. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: So Pronman is the only source of draft knowledge in the world?? I couldn’t possibly understand how the draft works unless I read one specific article about it?!

    He should have said according to the book of Cassandra!

  40. jtblack says:

    Cassandra: Go read it.The answer is yes.

    The goal should be to get four or five guys who you rate as first or 2nd round talents.Once you realize that this is possible, it shines an interesting light on how wasteful teams are with their draft picks both in terms of who they draft and how willing they are to trade them away for bit pieces.

    Its OK to trade high picks as long as the return is a Substantial player ….. like Griffin Reinhart ..

  41. Cassandra says:

    dustrock: Yeah, I’d call this nitpicking.

    The point is, at least for the first 2 rounds, if not the first 3, people look to where players were ranked on Bob’s list, ISS, etc.

    So they can label as a “reach”, or “going off the board”, etc.

    The point of the Pronman article is to remind people that teams have their own lists, and some teams only have around 75 players ranked, because it’s unlikely all their targets will be picked.

    Exactly. Which means that with your 4th or 5th round pick you aren’t taking the 120th best player, you are taking someone you would have been happy with in the 2nd round.

    And this is true, or should be true, of everyone. Which means that everyone pretty much gets who they want. If you aren’t getting two good players out of every draft then you only have yourself to blame.

  42. pts2pndr says:

    Yeti: I’m not entirely certain what you mean by ‘top three defensemen’, but the question for the Oil is whether he could anchor a top-pairing or whether he really needs to be played on the second-pairing to be successful. I don’t think that’s at all clear yet: at different parts of the season either outcome seemed possible.

    We do not know exactly but my point is that he is a top 4 NHL D. Given that a long term contrct startind at roughly same cost as bridging and increasing to average around 4.5 would give both player and team cost certainty and or security. Care has to be taken not to be penny wise and pound foolish! We are paying Russel over 4 with a no movement clause knowing what he is!

  43. jtblack says:

    Cassandra: Go read it.The answer is yes.

    The goal should be to get four or five guys who you rate as first or 2nd round talents.Once you realize that this is possible, it shines an interesting light on how wasteful teams are with their draft picks both in terms of who they draft and how willing they are to trade them away for bit pieces.

    If you are a Pronman Fan, look at Canucks 2017 Draft. He liked their top 3 picks a lot!! They COULD land 3 NHLers from thise 3 picks alone. Good arrows on all.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: The draft compensation is such that Nurse is an attractive offer sheet candidate, if you try to bridge him.

    So get the deal done prior to July 1st then.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilman99:
    If he is worth over $8mil, Drai has to do a much better job of driving his own line and play at a faster pace like Wheeler and Sheiffle.

    I think it’s spelled “Soufflé”.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    OiLNATION:
    Nuge-Mcd-Rattie
    Lucic-Drai-Pulju
    Khaira-Strome-Vanek
    Caggiula- Ryan- Kassian
    Aberg and Pirri

    These forward lines are way better imo.

    naturalstattrick.com tells us it’s better to play Khaira with Draisaitl and Lucic with Strome.

  47. pts2pndr says:

    Cassandra: Exactly.Which means that with your 4th or 5th round pick you aren’t taking the 120th best player, you are taking someone you would have been happy with in the 2nd round.

    And this is true, or should be true, of everyone.Which means that everyone pretty much gets who they want.If you aren’t getting two good players out of every draft then you only have yourself to blame.

    By my observation over the years by the end of the third round all of the first round ranked and all but a few of those ranked in the second round are gone. While the lists of where teams rank players may be different the names are pretty much the same or erily similar to the central scouting list! That is why in the final two rounds you will see a large number of off the board or NR names.

  48. dustrock says:

    Cassandra: Exactly.Which means that with your 4th or 5th round pick you aren’t taking the 120th best player, you are taking someone you would have been happy with in the 2nd round.

    And this is true, or should be true, of everyone.Which means that everyone pretty much gets who they want.If you aren’t getting two good players out of every draft then you only have yourself to blame.

    Right. People keep asking how Tampa Bay gets all these great draft picks. The interesting thing is that they don’t always pick them correctly in terms of rounds, with respect to who ended up making it to the NHL (Point, Palat, etc). But if you pick a whole bunch of 1st & 2nd round talents, some of them are going to make it.

    2016

    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2016 Entry 27 1 Brett Howden C Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]
    2016 Entry 37 2 Libor Hajek D Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
    2016 Entry 44 2 Boris Katchouk L Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds [OHL]
    2016 Entry 58 2 Taylor Raddysh R Erie Otters [OHL]
    2016 Entry 88 3 Connor Ingram G Kamloops Blazers [WHL]

    2015

    2015 Entry
    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2015 Entry 33 2 Mitchell Stephens C Saginaw Spirit [OHL]
    2015 Entry 44 2 Matthew Spencer D Peterborough Petes [OHL]
    2015 Entry 64 3 Dennis Yan L Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]
    2015 Entry 72 3 Anthony Cirelli C Oshawa Generals [OHL] 18 5 6 11 6

    2014

    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2014 Entry 19 1 Anthony DeAngelo D Sarnia Sting [OHL] 71 5 17 22 48
    2014 Entry 35 2 Dominik Masin D Slavia (Czech Jrs.)
    2014 Entry 57 2 Johnathan MacLeod D U.S. National Under-18 Team [USHL]
    2014 Entry 79 3 Brayden Point C Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] 150 50 56 106 38

    2013

    2011 Entry
    Draft Num. Round Player Pos Drafted From GP G A Pts PIM
    2011 Entry 27 1 Vladislav Namestnikov C London Knights [OHL] 282 55 72 127 138
    2011 Entry 58 2 Nikita Kucherov R CSKA Jr. (Russia) 365 147 187 334 161
    2011 Entry 148 5 Nikita Nesterov D Cherepovets Jr. (Russia) 132 9 24 33 81
    2011 Entry 178 6 Adam Wilcox G Green Bay Gamblers [USHL] 1 0 0 0 0
    2011 Entry 201 7 Matthew Peca C Pembroke Lumber Kings [CCHL] 20 3 4 7 2
    2011 Entry 208 7 Ondrej Palat L Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] 363 85 168 253 109

  49. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: You’re being abusive and moving the chains. Please stay on topic and be respectful.

  50. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr: I think it is obvious what Nurse is! He is worst case scenario a top three defenseman. Given age and the wisdom of this blog that states the new best thing is speed Darnel has it in spades as he has shown!Given his strength, durability and steady progress to bridge him would be a bad bet depending of course how much he is asking. At 4.5 averaged over max duration I believe he would represent very good value!

    It isn’t obvious he would sign eight years times $4.5 million, suspect it would get done in a quick hurry.

  51. Pink Socks says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I read it, and it says every team has a list of players it likes and tries to draft. They all have different opinions.

    That sounds exactly like the draft talk aroundhere to me.

    HEATHEN!

  52. innercitysmytty says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I threw this out there yesterday but didn’t see a response. WG or others, what is it about Necas that makes him such a good prospect? I haven’t seen him play and don’t know the league he plays in, but other than last WJC his numbers don’t look that impressive on the surface.

  53. Pink Socks says:

    Oilman99:
    If he is worth over $8mil, Drai has to do a much better job of driving his own line and play at a faster pace like Wheeler and Sheiffle.

    Drai’s 5v5 scoring is at a first line pace, and considering his linemates was quite remarkable. I am not sure how Drai can play at a faster pace like Wheeler and Scheifele* when he has to wait for Lucic to get with the program all the time.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    2.01 P/60 without McDavid is a great number – that’s 1st line production.

    What should always be remembered is that he did that with, generally, middling, tweener, AHL and/or struggling linemates.

    There is no cap room to go acquire a legit top 6 winger this off-season (without moving out a player we likely don’t want to) but, in the next few years, we will have a legit top 6 winger (or two) for Leon and the results are going to be phenomenal.

    He is a sublime player that isn’t near his prime.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am hopeful that Cooper Marody is the 3C of the future in a few seasons once Strome needs another contract.

    Outlier for that position is Rasanen but Marody is further along in his development and I think he may have more skill (from the three Michigan games I watched post acquisition).

    ——————————————-

    In the next few years, I’m looking for:

    – one of Safin or Maksimov to hit as a top 6 winger
    – one of Lagesson, Samorukov or Jones to hit as an NHL LD
    – one of Bear or Berglund to hit as an NHL RD

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner jumped Wells this year, that’s for sure but lets remember that developing goalies are voodoo and last year at this time Wells was developing well and ahead of Skinner on the depth chart and legit candidate for Team Canada.

    Wells could turn in back around this year.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    That egregious Koskinen overpay really hurts when one tries to put together a lineup:

    The following isn’t what I want to happen but its to show how limited the cap space is. I believe I was reasonable when resinging the RFAs (Nurse – $4M, Caggulia $1.25M, Strome – $3M Benning – $1.75M) and I replaced the three UFAs with PRV, Brodziak and Marody just as examples of filling out the lineup with players under $1M.

    —————————————

    Nuge ($6M) / McDavid ($12.5M) / Rattie ($800K)

    Khaira ($675K) / Drai ($8.5M) / Puljijarvi ($925K)

    Lucic ($6M) / Strome ($3M) / Aberg ($650K)

    Caggulia ($1.35M) / Brodziak ($950K) / Kassian ($1.95K)

    Magnus ($950K) / Marody ($925K)

    ———————-

    Klefbom ($4.167M) / Larsson ($4.167M
    Nurse ($4M) / Russell ($4M)
    Sekera ($5.5M) / Benning (1.65M)

    Gryba ($900K)

    —————————–
    Talbot ($4.167M)
    Koskinen ($2.5M)

    ———————————
    The above lineup has two outside acquisition, 12th/13th forwards for less than $1M each.

    The cap hit for the 23 man roster (which includes Marody, Rattie) is $77.5M

    That doesn’t account for the Pouliot buyout of $1.33M which will take it to $78.8M.

    It doesn’t take in to account any of Jesse’s bonuses which are maxed at apx. $2.5M so lets give a cushion of $1.25M which essentially takes us to $80M.

    So, we are at $80M without any material acquisition.

  58. russ99 says:

    If people are looking to move Leon and Nurse, they’re looking at the wrong players to move.

    McDavid cluster, both of them. Those are the players you keep and find the right mix to go with them.

    With the cap going to $80M and the assumption we bring back the NHL RFAs (kinda done beating a dead horse, let’s see what Chai does), I think there’s a really good chance we’ll be priced out on Vanek.

    There are a lot of teams (20 before RFAs) with $10M + cap space and some with $20M + cap space (9 teams with 2 more at $19M+)

    IMO, to make a proactive move to improve the team significantly will take a salary going out.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was super happy when I read Stauffer’s tweet this morning.

    No guarantees but he generally has his pulse on the general direction of the team.

    Nope, the 10th overall is certainly not untradeable but it should only be disposed of with great care and in a deal that makes sense, not only for this year, but in the medium term (both for personnel and cap matters).

  60. rickithebear says:

    ArmchairGM: naturalstattrick.com tells us it’s better to play Khaira with Draisaitl and Lucic with Strome.

    As a Bowman disciple like LT:
    I believe in offensive pairs.
    For last 8 years
    I showed the best WOWY pairs
    Trying to use 2-3 seasons of data when available.

    Built lines by the best goal diff ( not %) pairs.
    Looked for 3rd fwds that WOWY best fit the pairs.

    Glad the last few years people understand the value.
    I told you some of you would finally understand the value.

    Now you need to take the varying styles of position players and recognize what
    Styles repeatedly work and what suck.

    Remembering that 2 players that should work together based on WOWY history sometimes do not.

    OH!
    Offensive Dmen are OFFENSIVE!
    The suck!
    They really really suck!
    Suuuuuuuuuuck!

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Ryan Strome has to be qualified at $3mm.

    $2.15mm seems a little rich for 3rd pairing d-man.

    Yes, he needs to be qualified at $3M but that’s for one year. The hope is that Strome will take a bit less on the AAV/cap hit for a 2 or 3 year term.

  62. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    That egregious Koskinen overpay really hurts when one tries to put together a lineup

    Everytime I see Koskinen it frustrates the hell out of me because it makes zero sense. It means one of two things:

    1) There is a deal on the table to unload one of the bigger contracts, preferably one of the NMC’s

    2) Bob Nicholson was correct in his presser last month in that they haven’t really looked at the cap. They still didn’t look at it, made the signing, and when September rolls around there will be an “oh shit” moment in PC’s office and they have to do something rash.

    I think it’s #2.

  63. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, he needs to be qualified at $3M but that’s for one year. The hope is that Strome will take a bit less on the AAV/cap hit for a 2 or 3 year term.

    Gonna be interesting. If last year’s offseason schedule is the same this year the RFA QO date is 2 days after the draft, June 25th.

  64. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Strome does not HAVE to be qualified. His QO is $3MM but ChiaPete could do the same thing he did with Davidson and tender a lower offer. If the player accepts, we retain his rights. If not, he hits the UFA market.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan Nugent Hopkins played 42% of his even strength minutes in 2016/17 as a center against elite competition and, for the most part, he did a solid job, often at least sawing off.

    The reason in took so long, in my opinion, to put Nuge on Connor’s wing is because Nuge is a center and a darn good 200-foot center.

    Nuge was (is) the “veteran” with the NHL developed defensive and 200-foot game. No offence to the elite offensive studs but neither Leon nor Drai had a developed enough defensive game to allow Nuge to move out of the middle.

  66. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    The Koskinen contract is simply staggering. It baffles me. The only thing I can inferr from it is, perhaps management sees him as a possible 1B who can push Talbot to new heights or out the door. If they’re correct in that assessment, it’s a win for the team. If not, what a tragic waste.

  67. Jaxon says:

    Keith Gretzky: “You don’t want to force the hand and you try and take the best player, of course. We’re trying to determine who is the best player. If it’s close, since we have a lot of defencemen coming up, we’ll look towards a forward but right now we’ll look for the best player.”

    So if it is a toss up between players do they take the right handed D first, the Center next (can always move to wing), then left winger, then the right winger, and finally left D? Goalies whenever. Would that be the consensus order of Oilers’ needs?

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99:
    If he is worth over $8mil, Drai has to do a much better job of driving his own line and play at a faster pace like Wheeler and Sheiffle.

    Wheeler and Schiefle got to play together for 2/3 of their ice and often with a third linemate such as Kyle Connor.

    Leon got to play with Aberg and Cammalerri.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I like the roster construct above, but would prefer to sign a veteran 4C (Vermette would be ideal) and utilize Khaira on Draisaitl’s wing.

    I’ve been adamant for a while that Khaira should be 4C next year (and I still think he could do a fine job).

    With that said, I’ve changed my tune and I think it might make sense to give him a shot at LW in the middle 6. A 4C (you mention Vermette) can come cheap (apx $1M) and, if Khaira can play LW in the middle 6 and produce then we’ve “acquired” a middle six value contract at a position of need.

    No certainty he can excel there but I’d certainly give him a chance.

  70. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar: Wheeler and Schiefle got to play together for 2/3 of their ice and often with a third linemate such as Kyle Connor.

    Leon got to play with Aberg and Cammalerri.

    Don’t forget Lucic

  71. bendelson says:

    innercitysmytty,

    My apologies for not answering your question yesterday…
    I view Necas as a ‘five-tool’ prospect, if I may borrow a term from baseball.
    He has a high hockey IQ, has loads of skill, skates very well, plays a complete 200ft game, and is an agitator (very ‘irritating’ to play against).

    Wonderful prospect.

    Mileage may vary…

  72. godot10 says:

    Munny: There is no such thing as a consensus list after the top 10, and within the top 10 there is only Bobby Mac’s, so “list”, not “lists”.

    Sorry, for picking nits, but the notion of “consensus” say at pick 21 gives a false impression of how that number is derived and what it means.

    Typicallyl over 27 of the players in the top 30 on MacKenzie’s consensus list go in the top 30. His list is typically a pretty good consensus.

  73. russ99 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Strome does not HAVE to be qualified. His QO is $3MM but ChiaPete could do the same thing he did with Davidson and tender a lower offer. If the player accepts, we retain his rights. If not, he hits the UFA market.

    I’d think something would get done before the tender deadline if we’re going multi-year to reduce the cap hit.

  74. Pink Socks says:

    Pink Socks: Don’t forget Lucic

    Hmmm, Drai and Strome have some good numbers together. TMac likes his pairs. How about:

    97-93
    29-18
    16-

    ….shit nevermind.

    Watching WSH and VGK it is astounding how effective their bottom 6 forwards are. The Caps 4th line with Beagle, DSP, and Stephenson, and VGK with Bellemare Nosek and Reaves, it’s sad to see the Oil’s production and effectiveness in that area.

  75. innercitysmytty says:

    bendelson,

    Thanks for the info, appreciate it. So do you think there’s any possibility of a trade there for #10? Probably not if he’s a more known quantity and a year further into his development. Even if the #10 may end up being a player with higher upside.

  76. Pink Socks says:

    It’s a copycat league and in my opinion the two cup final models are copycat worthy. Kassian = Wilson. Big, high pick with plenty of speed, a bit of skill, alot of crazy… get him in the top 6. The bottom 6 needs to be 6 Khaira’s. If Vegas can take scraps to make their bottom 6, so can the Oil. If Vegas can trade (horrible by the way) 3 picks for an overpaid & underperforming Tatar and then have the balls to put him in the pressbox for the cup final, then take your medicine on the contract and find a warm seat for Lucic.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    OiLNATION:
    Nuge-Mcd-Rattie
    Lucic-Drai-Pulju
    Khaira-Strome-Vanek
    Caggiula- Ryan- Kassian
    Aberg and Pirri

    These forward lines are way better imo.

    Over the cap unless a $4M (or $5.5M) d-man is disposed of.

  78. bendelson says:

    innercitysmytty:
    bendelson,

    Thanks for the info, appreciate it. So do you think there’s any possibility of a trade there for #10? Probably not if he’s a more known quantity and a year further into his development. Even if the #10may end up being a player with higher upside.

    I’m a big fan of Kotkaniemi. If he is available at #10 and Carolina offers Necas for the pick, I make the trade. It is highly unlikely, however (based on WG’s comments yesterday) Carolina would be interested. I would add Kassian into the mix and still make that trade. That said, I don’t put a great deal of value on Kassian in the Oilers line-up. I hope they find a trade for him. I’d much rather spend that 2M towards a RW for Leon… I’d also strongly consider spending that Kassian money on UFA Ryan, as I think he brings more of what the Oilers need.

  79. Richard S.S. says:

    rickithebear,

    Love it.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: naturalstattrick.com tells us it’s better to play Khaira with Draisaitl and Lucic with Strome.

    I just took a look at Drai and JJ together and the sample size is bigger than I thought (170 minutes) and the results are quite nice.

    JJ falls off a cliff without Drai though – I didn’t check my my guess is much of that time is with Letestu, Pak, Kassian, etc.

  81. Richard S.S. says:

    Without out Vegas, Tthe actual Cap was usually within about $1.2 Million of the bottom level of the Cap projections. With Vegas apparently driving the Bus this Season, I’d expect the actual Cap to be at least $1.5 – $1.8 Million of the bottom level of the Cap projections. I don’t think the economy is doing well enough to increase any of these numbers. The NHLPA could always add a 5% kicker to the Cap which could bring the Cap to a healthy $83.79 Milion, but I expect an $82.0 Million as attainable.

  82. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    2.01 P/60 without McDavid is a great number – that’s 1st line production.

    What should always be remembered is that he did that with, generally, middling, tweener, AHL and/or struggling linemates.
    *************************************************************************************************
    x 1000000

    Carrying around Milan Lucic and people have your ceiling penciled in for you…..

    If we had a different GM here, Leon would have had a different set of wingers and I think the talk around Leon would be much different.

    Leon is a Distributor. He needs a speed shooter.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Strome does not HAVE to be qualified. His QO is $3MM but ChiaPete could do the same thing he did with Davidson and tender a lower offer. If the player accepts, we retain his rights. If not, he hits the UFA market.

    Losing Strome as a UFA is not an option.

    I would think the plan is to try and negotiate a contract with a lower AAV (and some term), however, if that can’t be accomplished prior to the deadline, they will qualify him at $3M.

    He can simply not accept the QO and they can keep negotiating and the Oilers retain his RFA rights.

  84. McSorley33 says:

    If you find yourself complaining about the Koskinen signing…..you really have not been paying attention to Peter’s work in Edmonton.

    This is how he rolls people…

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    The Koskinen contract is simply staggering. It baffles me. The only thing I can inferr from it is, perhaps management sees him as a possible 1B who can push Talbot to new heights or out the door. If they’re correct in that assessment, it’s a win for the team. If not, what a tragic waste.

    Even if they do see him as that, its an egregious over-pay. That type of cap hit is only warranted for goalies that have actually proven to be able to push a starter (or have a history of being stater with success) – Benier, Halak, etc.

    Pavel Francouz is his comparable, in fact he had a better season (won KHL goalie of the year) and is younger, and he signed for $690K.

    Even if Koskinen works out, and i really hope he does, that contract will turn out OK but was still an egregious risk.

  86. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Losing Strome as a UFA is not an option.

    Actually losing Strome as a UFA is a pretty good option. There are better ways to spend $3 million.

    Just as last year, losing Russell as a UFA would have been a pretty good option that Chiarelli didn’t explore.

  87. Munny says:

    dustrock: Yeah, I’d call this nitpicking.

    The point is, at least for the first 2 rounds, if not the first 3, people look to where players were ranked on Bob’s list, ISS, etc.

    So they can label as a “reach”, or “going off the board”, etc.

    The point of the Pronman article is to remind people that teams have their own lists, and some teams only have around 75 players ranked, because it’s unlikely all their targets will be picked.

    You might think of it that way,, but it is an important nitpick.

    At say 21, the spread between top and bottom ranking that Bob has gathere might be something like -6 to +10. that’s a range of 16 spots and theother 8 scouts might be anywhere in between. In fact, no one might have him actually at 21, but that’s the ranking derived from the 10 rankings Bob has polled.

    These spreads grow the deeper into the prospect pool we go.

    Pronman has to point this out because of the continued misuse of the term “consensus” when what Bob is actually telling us is an “average”. And thus the difference between Bob’s list and individual team lists.

    Correct terms might be nitpicky, but they’re also important for clarity.

    (And I’m not meaning to nitpick on you… it’s a common thing, which is the only reason why I am making the point… Bob list is an average not a consensus).

  88. Richard S.S. says:

    Vegas got lucky as well as getting amazing help from opposing GMs, a few went stupid with help. Vegas basically acquired three complete 2nd lines and a omplete 3rd line. Once given the opportunity to play, they turned into a top 1st line, two very good 2nd lines and a very good 3rd line. I suspect that if you removed McDavid and Draisaitl from comparision, the Vegas bottom six is better than the Oilers’ remaining top six.

  89. ArmchairGM says:

    Pink Socks:
    It’s a copycat league and in my opinion the two cup final models are copycat worthy.Kassian = Wilson.Big, high pick with plenty of speed, a bit of skill, alot of crazy… get him in the top 6.The bottom 6 needs to be 6 Khaira’s.If Vegas can take scraps to make their bottom 6, so can the Oil.If Vegas can trade (horrible by the way) 3 picks for an overpaid & underperforming Tatar and then have the balls to put him in the pressbox for the cup final, then take your medicine on the contract and find a warm seat for Lucic.

    I would like to see Khaira at 2LW and wouldn’t mind seeing Kassian at 1RW either. Sort of a right-shot Maroon. It’s worth a shot.

  90. Munny says:

    godot10: Typicallyl over 27 of the players in the top 30 on MacKenzie’s consensus list go in the top 30.His list is typically a pretty good consensus.

    No, it is a really good average. (And a good poll, because obviously he could be polling scouts who are poor judges of talent)

  91. PennersPancakes says:

    godot10,

    Who would you rather have play 3rd line center and what’s the cost (cap and/or asset)?

  92. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: As a Bowman disciple like LT:
    I believe in offensive pairs.
    For last 8 years
    I showed the best WOWY pairs
    Trying to use 2-3 seasons of data when available.

    Built lines by the best goal diff ( not %) pairs.
    Looked for 3rd fwds that WOWY best fit the pairs.

    Glad the last few years people understand the value.
    I told you some of you would finally understand the value.

    Now you need to take the varying styles of position players and recognize what
    Styles repeatedly work and what suck.

    Remembering that 2 players that should work together based on WOWY history sometimes do not.

    OH!
    Offensive Dmen are OFFENSIVE!
    The suck!
    They really really suck!
    Suuuuuuuuuuck!

    Yup. Nick Lidstrom Ray Bourque Al Mcinnis Chris Pronger Niedermeyer. All suck. They should have all been replaced with a good ole Ricki Defenseman.

    Offensive dmen all need to be just as good or better in the other two zones as in the offensive zone. And if they are do everything you can to keep them.

  93. leadfarmer says:

    Curious question. When is the last time a Ricki defenseman was drafted in the first round. Who is the highest rated Ricki defenseman in this years draft. Everyone wants the next Shea Theodore or Montour.

  94. OiLNATION says:

    ArmchairGM: naturalstattrick.com tells us it’s better to play Khaira with Draisaitl and Lucic with Strome.

    ArmchairGM: naturalstattrick.com tells us it’s better to play Khaira with Draisaitl and Lucic with Strome.

    We should atleast try lucic who is making 6 mil with drai hoping he can bring back his chemistry he had with drai in the playoffs

  95. OiLNATION says:

    OriginalPouzar: Over the cap unless a $4M (or $5.5M) d-man is disposed of.

    No its not over the cap because we can get derek ryan, who is a skilled forth liner/third liner instead of schaller and chiasson

  96. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    That egregious Koskinen overpay really hurts when one tries to put together a lineup:

    The following isn’t what I want to happen but its to show how limited the cap space is. I believe I was reasonable when resinging the RFAs (Nurse – $4M, Caggulia $1.25M, Strome – $3M Benning – $1.75M) and I replaced the three UFAs with PRV, Brodziak and Marody just as examples of filling out the lineup with players under $1M.

    —————————————

    Nuge ($6M) / McDavid ($12.5M) / Rattie ($800K)

    Khaira ($675K) / Drai ($8.5M) / Puljijarvi ($925K)

    Lucic ($6M) / Strome ($3M) / Aberg ($650K)

    Caggulia ($1.35M) / Brodziak ($950K) / Kassian ($1.95K)

    Magnus ($950K) / Marody ($925K)

    ———————-

    Klefbom ($4.167M) / Larsson ($4.167M
    Nurse ($4M) / Russell ($4M)
    Sekera ($5.5M) / Benning (1.65M)

    Gryba ($900K)

    —————————–
    Talbot ($4.167M)
    Koskinen ($2.5M)

    ———————————
    The above lineup has two outside acquisition, 12th/13th forwards for less than $1M each.

    The cap hit for the 23 man roster (which includes Marody, Rattie) is $77.5M

    That doesn’t account for the Pouliot buyout of $1.33M which will take it to $78.8M.

    It doesn’t take in to account any of Jesse’s bonuses which are maxed at apx. $2.5M so lets give a cushion of $1.25M which essentially takes us to $80M.

    So, we are at $80M without any material acquisition.

    No Magnus,no Brodziak, bridge for Nurse ,less than $3m for Strome,no more than$1m for Caggulia, and there is ample room for a bonafide top six winger. If you want a better penalty killer move out Kassian.

  97. Pink Socks says:

    OiLNATION:
    We should atleast try lucic who is making 6 mil with drai hoping he can bring back his chemistry he had with drai in the playoffs

    I agree he should be tried there to see what happens, but otherwise park him in the press box. Addition by subtraction if he tears it up like in the second half of this season.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Actually losing Strome as a UFA is a pretty good option.There are better ways to spend $3 million.

    Just as last year, losing Russell as a UFA would have been a pretty good option that Chiarelli didn’t explore.

    Except that Strome is value for $3M or close thereto.

    You obviously don’t think he is but I’ve yet to see a suggestion of a way to get a better (or similar) 3C with plus PK ability in a similar age category for less cap.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    OiLNATION: No its not over the cap because we can get derek ryan, who is a skilled forth liner/third liner instead of schaller and chiasson

    Derek Ryan isn’t signing for less than $3M/season.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: No Magnus,no Brodziak, bridge for Nurse ,less than $3m forStrome,no more than$1m for Caggulia, and there is ample room for a bonafide top six winger. If you want a better penalty killer move out Kassian.

    You can’t just say “no Brodziak or Magnus” – those roster spots will need to be filled (they are essentially Pakarinan and Slep replacements) and I’ve got both of them for less than $1M – won’t get much cheaper.

    Strome may be able to come in $500K cheaper.

    There is no guarantee that a bridge for Nurse will come in less than $4M.

    Caggulia will not sign for less than $1M – he just scored 13 goals. $1.25M might be a bit low – just being realistic.

  101. pts2pndr says:

    Jji

    Lowetide: It isn’t obvious he would sign eight years times $4.5 million, suspect it would get done in a quick hurry.

    Sorry LT what I was trying to say is the first attempt should be for the eight year term. If that has to look like a 3.5,3.5 ,4.5,4.5,5.0, 5.0,5.0,5.0. Some variation as such to give the team time to move Russel or Sekera without having to part with a player before there is a qualified replacement for same.The bridge will in effect end up in my opinion,to cost much more over the same term.

  102. oilinthepeg says:

    Does $5M represent an overpay for Nurse?
    What are the comparables?
    To me, he doesn’t bring enough offense to justify the pay.
    Don’t love the idea of a bridge deal, either, but would love to see him signed long term for 4.
    Who would you rather have, him or Klef? Him or Lars? He’s a step below both, but I recognize that they are both on great deal contracts and 2018 is slightly different than when they were signed. The number will likely be very close to $5M, but is this an overpay because it is what we have to work with, or do we feel that most teams would be paying Nurse $5M?

    … watch him sign for $5.25M because Oilers…

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nurse doesn’t seem to bring alot of offence but lets not forget that, out of his 26 points this year, 26 of them were at even strenth, the extact same amount of ESP as Colton Parayko, one less than Tyson Barrie, OEL, Giordano, Ekblad, etc.

    He’s not an offensive dynamo but, given almost no PP time…….

  104. PUCKSTOPSHERE says:

    If the cap goes up to 82$ think there’s any chance the coyotes might need one those big contract cough cough Milan or seekra cough to maybe reach the cap floor if we threw in a kicker ?

  105. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: Yup.Nick Lidstrom Ray Bourque Al Mcinnis Chris Pronger Niedermeyer.All suck.They should have all been replaced with a good ole Ricki Defenseman.

    Offensive dmen all need to be just as good or better in the other two zones as in the offensive zone.And if they are do everything you can to keep them.

    Lidstrom Top 10;hd dman who generated even offence without yielding.

    Pronger was the the 2nd best HD dmen of the 5 on the 05-06 team.
    Spacek was Top 5 HD Dman On the team

    Macinnis played when Save% variance from HD to ld was not even close to 5:1

    Niedermeyer was part of the best core of HD and 0% corsi d group.
    Broedeur was one lucky goalie.
    JVB and Roy win tree more cups than him with that d.

  106. hunter1909 says:

    McSorley33:
    OriginalPouzar,

    2.01 P/60 without McDavid is a great number – that’s 1st line production.

    What should always be remembered is that he did that with, generally, middling, tweener, AHL and/or struggling linemates.
    *************************************************************************************************
    x 1000000

    Carrying around Milan Lucic and people have your ceiling penciled in for you…..

    If we had a different GM here, Leon would have had a different set of wingers and I think the talk around Leon would be much different.

    Leon is a Distributor. He needs a speed shooter.

    Funny but all of this talk about Draisaitl makes me realise that the management, incompetent as ever could do worse than politically stapling JP to Draisaitl – since both appear to need instant redemption around these here parts.

    JP is an incredible prospect, and Draisaitl has been proven to thrive when given talented wingers.

    It’s too easy. To be a fan, sitting at home, instead of rocking the halls of Rogers Place.

  107. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Look at the draft last year. How many Ricki defenseman were taken in the first round. Look at this years scouting reports. How many Ricki defensemen are first rounders.
    You are a hockey dinosaur that belongs in clutch and grab era hockey and you haven’t even noticed time pass you by.

  108. hunter1909 says:

    Current Oilers management reminds me of a haystack filled with mice.

    Katz thought he was hiring exceptional talent; instead he gets arguably the worst NHL management “team” imaginable; with proven losers like MacT getting promoted instead of deservedly sacked.

    Even with all those top draft picks including how many top flight 2nd round picks they’ve collectively managed to end up with terrible wingers, mediocre defence, and spotty goaltending.

    Plus big time cap issues which effectively cripple the team just as effectively as having a lousy roster.

  109. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Plus you lump all defensemen that generate offense together without the simplest understanding how modern offense works. You keep spouting points for defensemen as a measure of offensive contribution which is the stupidest measure you can make. It catches the random noise that makes it in the net. For example looking at Swedish D numbers they look offensively inept because they count one assist while they look better when they come over and get that second assist. What would happen if you counted it further? You would start realizing that hey that outlet pass that got things moving the right direction was just as crucial to the goal as that final pass to the goalscorer.
    Also I would love to see a Ricki power play as a Ricki defenseman chips it out the boards and out in his own zone to get a power play started.
    Having a good power play qb is crucial. It doesn’t have to be a defenseman but usually at least for establishing zone possession most teams d is that qb. A lot of poor pp and ours even when it was good a year ago was actually poor at getting established (except then Mcdavid would will a goal). That’s why TMac employed the neutral zone back pass to give the puck carrier a little more room and speed.
    But hey we can always play Mcdavid with Ricki defensemen and wonder why the hell we have the worst power play in the league again.
    One thing I would like you to do is take a look at how Ghostisbehere establishes puck possession in the offensive zone on a power-play. It truly is a skill you are truly overlooking. Yes you don’t want to pay a defenseman for points especially if they are horrible in other ends of the ice looking at you Faulk and Dumba but you don’t want the opposite that leaves your forwards in a 3 on 5 because other than dumping the puck in the corner the defenseman is not providing any help
    Lastly you know you are better than those petty attacks. So just don’t

  110. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Nurse doesn’t seem to bring alot of offence but lets not forget that, out of his 26 points this year, 26 of them were at even strenth, the extact same amount of ESP as Colton Parayko, one less than Tyson Barrie, OEL, Giordano, Ekblad, etc.

    He’s not an offensive dynamo but, given almost no PP time…….

    36 even points (#8) when you are top 3 HD man ( Manson) is amazing.
    32 even points (#17) when you are a top 10 HD dman (josi) is amazing
    25 even points (#36) when you are a top 10 HD dman (Schmidt) is amazing
    23 even points (#45) when you are Top 45 HD dman (c. Miller) is great
    23 even points (#45) when you are a top 60 HD dman (Engelland) is great
    19 even points (#69) when you are a top 45/HD dman (Cole) is great

    26 even points when you are bottom 10 HD dman (Nurse) sucks.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: 36 even points (#8) when you are top 3 HD man ( Manson) is amazing.
    32 even points (#17) when you are a top 10 HD dman (josi) is amazing
    25 even points (#36) when you are a top 10 HD dman (Schmidt) is amazing
    23 even points (#45) when you are Top 45 HD dman (c. Miller) is great
    23 even points (#45) when you are a top 60 HD dman (Engelland) is great
    19 even points (#69) when you are a top 45/HD dman (Cole) is great

    26 even points when you are bottom 10 HD dman (Nurse) sucks.

    In the spirint of “give up less than you get”, I would posit that being plus 15 on a team with a large negative goal differential while playing first tier competition for large portions of the season, sometimes with a Kris Russell on his off side as the 1RD, is the opposite of such whether the player is in low or high definition.

  112. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Miller is sheltered. Cole is sheltered. Engelland is 36 and didn’t even put up 23 points in junior so it’s safe to say players bounced pucks of him and then scored goals.
    But yes Nurse and klefbom I don’t like in the defensive zone and both lean very heavily on Larsson. Both aren’t good at finding the most dangerous player and Klefbom defending a 2 on 1 is pretty much a guaranteed goal.
    The Larsson rob. Where he steers an opposing player into the boards and robs the player blind is always one of my favorites

  113. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It make me think of how people don’t think OEL is a great defenseman. Defensemen on horrible teams have horrible numbers. The more time you spend on the ice the more your teeth get kicked in and the worse your stats look.

  114. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Actually losing Strome as a UFA is a pretty good option.There are better ways to spend $3 million.

    Just as last year, losing Russell as a UFA would have been a pretty good option that Chiarelli didn’t explore.

    What $3 mill C would you recommend instead?

  115. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Derek Ryan isn’t signing for less than $3M/season.

    Oh boy. If someone signs Ryan for $3 mill they’ll regret that bigtime. He should get something like $1.25.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Oh boy. If someone signs Ryan for $3 mill they’ll regret that bigtime. He should get something like $1.25.

    A career year but he just had 15 goals and 38 points.

    He’s going to get $7.75M over 3 or something like that.

  117. rickithebear says:

    What are the major actions that have th e biggest goal differentiation affect
    1. Hd area penetration and defence
    HD:ld 5 to 1
    2. Dmen getting the puck to top 270 fwds.
    Fwd evg production: dmen evg production 4 to 1
    3. Coaches decision bench change with or without pocession
    ZS FO win % correction.
    These are what changes the game.
    Turkey diner!

    Yet 52% to 48% variance is huge.
    I will pass on the table scraps.

  118. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer:
    rickithebear,

    Miller is sheltered.Cole is sheltered.Engelland is 36 and didn’t even put up 23 points in junior so it’s safe to say players bounced pucks of him and then scored goals.
    But yes Nurse and klefbom I don’t like in the defensive zone and both lean very heavily on Larsson.Both aren’t good at finding the most dangerous player and Klefbom defending a 2 on 1 is pretty much a guaranteed goal.
    The Larsson rob.Where he steers an opposing player into the boards and robs the player blind is always one of my favourites.

    For years now I have said the HD shot reduction gain does not matter weather it comes from a sheltered 3rd pair. As long as you get the Goal diff gain from the HD reduction.
    You prefer them to be 1st comp but we have

    Xxx- Larsson 1st comp
    Sekera -Russell

    Would seek out
    DeHaan, Cole, Sustr
    Might bridge nurse for 2=if he stays in zhD area.

  119. jp says:

    rickithebear: 26 even points when you are bottom 10 HD dman (Nurse) sucks.

    OriginalPouzar: In the spirint of “give up less than you get”, I would posit that being plus 15 on a team with a large negative goal differential while playing first tier competition for large portions of the season, sometimes with a Kris Russell on his off side as the 1RD, is the opposite of such whether the player is in low or high definition.

    Seriously Ricki, where is this bottom 10 HD dman stuff even coming from? Nurse’s HDCF% from NST was 49.47% in 16-17 and 50.54% in 17-18. Are you using old data? (he was 41.78% in 15-16)

  120. Professor Q says:

    PUCKSTOPSHERE:
    If the cap goes up to 82$ think there’s any chance the coyotes might need one those big contract cough coughMilan or seekracough to maybe reach the cap floor if we threw in a kicker ?

    If it’s anything like the Datsyuk or Pronger trades then Edmonton would have a lot of swallowing to do.

    Grossmann and Pronger’s contract for Gagner, 16th OV and Datsyuk’s contract for 20th and 53rd OV and Vitale.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    But your comparison to Nurse was the equivalent of someone saying their favorite apple is a Fuji apple and you saying no I’ll show you the best apple and then you bring out a fruit basket
    You compared Nurse to a bunch of guys that are non comparable players.
    It’s like if you were to take, Matt Dumba, (boo hisss horrible player) and compare him to Colin Miller (yeay go advanced stats!!) and you look and how they were used and say wait Dumba played 26 games of 25 min a night including multiple 30 min a night games and then you look at Miller and he played 1 game of 25 min. And then you’re like there is no way I can make a reasonable comparison between the two players

  122. VOR says:

    Given its a slow night I want to try an experiment.

    Here is a simple question any peewee coach can answer intuitively just from helping a lot of kids try to master the skill. What is the optimum shoulder abduction and front leg flexion for a player taking (lets make it really easy) a slap shot and how does that relate to the moment arm and the lever arm in a slap shot? And, critically what does that have to do with defending the so called rickibox?

    Now if you can’t answer this, and believe me my daughters both could have answered it when they were 7, you clearly don’t know anything about slap shots or HD scoring chances. (That’s a joke in case you are in any doubt.)

    I am trying to get an idea of the bio-mechanical and kinetic sophistication of this community.

  123. VOR says:

    Think of the problem in steps. Imagine taking a slap shot. What happens to your front leg? That’s the only hint your getting.

  124. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: A career year but he just had 15 goals and 38 points.

    He’s going to get $7.75M over 3 or something like that.

    Ouch!! And he’s 31 yrs old

  125. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965: Ouch!! And he’s 31 yrs old

    The problem for Ryan is that he’s arriving at free agency in a year when the impact players are going to get paid and NHL organizations are likely (finally) to pay bottom 6F’s around 1.5M at the outer marker. The good news is someone will pay him, but I think the 4C making $2M are going the way of calligraphy.

  126. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    naturalstattrick.com tells us it’s better to play Khaira with Draisaitl and Lucic with Strome.

    This is not a true statement (I don’t think).

    Draisaitl with: (CF% FF% SF% GF% SCF% HDCF% PDO)
    Khaira (171 min) 55.1% 54.4% 54.2% 50.0% 54.1% 52.5% .980
    Lucic (296 min) 53.5% 54.5% 54.9% 35.6% 54.6% 52.5% .902

    The only notable differences here are in GF% and PDO.

    Strome with: (CF% FF% SF% GF% SCF% HDCF% PDO)
    Khaira (265 min) 52.8% 55.8% 56.4% 54.1% 52.1% 43.7% .991
    Lucic (217 min) 51.7% 51.3% 49.8% 42.1% 54.3% 54.3% .975

    Khaira generally shows better, save for HDCF%.

    Not to be picky, but there’s not a single metric where “Khaira is better with Draisaitl and Lucic is better with Strome”. More to the spirit of your comment, both players look very good with Draisaitl (aside from Lucic’s staggeringly low PDO), and Khaira looks better with Strome by most metrics. It’s not clear which pairs are are actually optimal. I feel like either player could be slotted in either spot and have a reasonable chance of succeeding.

  127. bendelson says:

    VOR: I am trying to get an idea of the bio-mechanical and kinetic sophistication of this community.

    Very well VOR: I believe the answer to be ‘dance, dance, dance’.

  128. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: The problem for Ryan is that he’s arriving at free agency in a year when the impact players are going to get paid and NHL organizations are likely (finally) to pay bottom 6F’s around 1.5M at the outer marker. The good news is someone will pay him, but I think the 4C making $2M are going the way of calligraphy.

    And here I was thinking my bad body odour was the reason no one joined my calligraphy club.

    I’m cheering for Ryan and I would love to have him, but at a price like 3 years at $975k per year. Something like the Pitlick contract.

  129. VOR says:

    bendelson: Very well VOR:I believe the answer to be ‘dance, dance, dance’.

    Which parts of dance are you referring to specifically?

    Seriously, I can’t believe there aren’t people here who can answer this question easily.

    I mean it isn’t a trivial question. How often do we talk about some prospect having a great shot? Surely we all know in a technical sense what a great shot looks like. If I say the kid has a shoulder abduction of 30 degrees and a front leg flexion of 96 degrees on a slap shot you will all know why this matters and what it says about the chance the kid will be a sniper in the NHL.

    Our certainty about such matters must be based on expertise. Presumably we all know which bio-mechanical parameters can be changed with coaching and which are a function of anatomy or physiology and thus not something you can teach. How else are we going to make any sort of projection about the player with the 30 degree abduction and 96 degree flexion?

    Those numbers by the way belong to a real prospect, Keiffer Bellows who is an Islanders prospect. And yes his father played in the NHL.

  130. GMB3 says:

    VOR: Which parts of dance are you referring to specifically?

    Seriously, I can’t believe there aren’t people here who can answer this question easily.

    I mean it isn’t a trivial question. How often do we talk about some prospect having a great shot? Surely we all know in a technical sense what a great shot looks like. If I say the kid has a shoulder abduction of 30 degrees and a front leg flexion of 96 degrees on a slap shot you will all know why this matters and what it says about the chance the kid will be a sniper in the NHL.

    Our certainty about such matters must be based on expertise. Presumably we all know which bio-mechanical parameters can be changed with coaching and which are a function of anatomy or physiology and thus not something you can teach. How else are we going to make any sort of projection about the player with the 30 degree abduction and 96 degree flexion?

    Those numbers by the way belong to a real prospect, Keiffer Bellows who is an Islanders prospect. And yes his father played in the NHL.

    I don’t see the relevance. Plenty of different golfers have different swings and still find success and perform at an elite level.

    In coaching baseball, the motto I’ve used and had former coaches of mine use “it doesn’t matter how you get to there, as long as you get there (there being critical instant and your mechanics at that time”.

    Alexander Ovechkin has a far from normal one timer yet it’s been one of the most effective shots in the NHL for the vast duration of his career.

  131. GMB3 says:

    I just watched a video of bellows slap shot goal against Canada during the outdoor game at the WJHC and there’s no way he gets 96 degrees of flexion. Where do these numbers come from?

  132. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: This is not a true statement (I don’t think).

    Draisaitl with: (CF% FF% SF% GF% SCF% HDCF% PDO)
    Khaira (171 min)55.1%54.4%54.2%50.0%54.1%52.5%.980
    Lucic (296 min)53.5%54.5%54.9%35.6%54.6%52.5%.902

    The only notable differences here are in GF% and PDO.

    Strome with: (CF% FF% SF% GF% SCF% HDCF% PDO)
    Khaira (265 min)52.8%55.8%56.4%54.1%52.1%43.7%.991
    Lucic(217 min)51.7%51.3%49.8%42.1%54.3%54.3%.975

    Khaira generally shows better, save for HDCF%.

    Not to be picky, but there’s not a single metric where “Khaira is better with Draisaitl and Lucic is better with Strome”. More to the spirit of your comment, both players look very good with Draisaitl (aside from Lucic’s staggeringly low PDO), and Khaira looks better with Strome by most metrics. It’s not clear which pairs are are actually optimal. I feel like either player could be slotted in either spot and have a reasonable chance of succeeding.

    Too bad NST doesn’t give you the breakdown between 2017 and 2018 for Lucic. Besides, did McLellan ever go ML-McDavid-LD? That would skew the numbers.

    Basically I looked at CF% and GF% being clear wins for Khaira, so even if Khaira is better on the 3rd line too it’s not fair to put him there automatically. Strome’s line gets easier comp and fewer minutes, seems ideal for a slow-moving, aging Lucic.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: And here I was thinking my bad body odour was the reason no one joined my calligraphy club.

    I’m cheering for Ryan and I would love to have him, but at a price like 3 years at $975k per year.Something like the Pitlick contract.

    He would have received more than a max ELC salary even before spiking offensively this year and now he’s coming off a 15G and 38P season (both would be good for 4th on the Oilers).

    He’ll receive at least double that, probably more. Yes, it will be an over-pay but I’ll be shocked if he’s under $2M/season and it will likely be north of that amount.

  134. hunter1909 says:

    VOR: If I say the kid has a shoulder abduction of 30 degrees and a front leg flexion of 96 degrees on a slap shot you will all know why this matters

    Ridiculous. Throwing out technical terms that many will have zero idea viz their meaning, backed up by the “I told you so” arrogance of anyone who is 4 weeks ahead of his guitar students.

    Let me take a shot: “Leg Flexion” sounds like another way to describe a front leg stance, that’s almost at a 90 degree angle and would be impossible to make people do on skates at 90 so I’ll assume it can go down to that angle for a quick moment..

    The “Shoulder Abduction” part sounds like the angle above the shoulder that the strong hand naturally recoils into.

    Do I pass? Teacher? Do I have to show my work?

    : p

  135. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Too bad NST doesn’t give you the breakdown between 2017 and 2018 for Lucic. Besides, did McLellan ever go ML-McDavid-LD? That would skew the numbers.

    Basically I looked at CF% and GF% being clear wins for Khaira, so even if Khaira is better on the 3rd line too it’s not fair to put him there automatically. Strome’s line gets easier comp and fewer minutes, seems ideal for a slow-moving, aging Lucic.

    Fair point about Lucic-McDavid-Draisaitl minutes potentially buoying the Lucic-Drai numbers.

    I fully agree it’s not fair to slot Khaira automatically on the 3rd, my point was just that it’s not at all clear which combos are better.

  136. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: Too bad NST doesn’t give you the breakdown between 2017 and 2018 for Lucic. Besides, did McLellan ever go ML-McDavid-LD? That would skew the numbers.

    Basically I looked at CF% and GF% being clear wins for Khaira, so even if Khaira is better on the 3rd line too it’s not fair to put him there automatically. Strome’s line gets easier comp and fewer minutes, seems ideal for a slow-moving, aging Lucic.

    Corsica is your friend.

    http://corsica.hockey/line-stats/

  137. Melvis says:

    Since a majority of seven year olds are much smarter than me, sport superior knowledge of bio-mechanics – not to mention any associated vocabulary, I was forced to look at the pictures. It seems Bobby Hull had a prettay good slap shot – surpassed only by Bendelson’s.

    #oyvey

  138. Melvis says:

    I should add I’m mostly interested in the comedic sophistication of this blog. My slap shot isn’t bad and my golf swiing much better with a spliff hanging out of my mouth – and my tongue firmly planted in my (upper) cheek.

  139. VOR says:

    My point about Bellows, and I am getting the data from digitized video but you can do the same thing with freeze framing the Canada goal, is that on average Keiffer Bellows has room to improve significantly on the slap shot.

    This is what I look for when I am trying to help a jumper or thrower or lifter. Ways to help them improve. Things they can do better. Right now Keiffer Bellows can blow it by a junior goaltender. The NHL is a whole other story. Less time and space and far superior goal tending. But Bellows could, with coaching, improve to meet that challenge. Other big shot prospects might not have the same room to grow.

    The thing is scouts, teams don’t do this sort of analysis. By and large. It is common in a lot of other professional sports and the majority of all Olympic sports.

    Bio-mechanical analysis is in its infancy in hockey.

    But we do know it is hard to set up for a slap shot and not telegraph the fact. Additionally your body position tells both defence and goal tender whether you are raising the puck or keeping the shot low. This is why even Shea Weber isn’t as valuable on the point as Jeff Petry despite having one of the greatest slap shots of all time. It takes too long, reveals too much, and doesn’t allow for enough creativity to pay off on the power play the way Ovechkin’s wrist shot does.

    But very every shot, every pass, every motion of the skate blade there is an optimal way to execute it and bio-mechanics is a growing part of the game. But the view response I got suggests this community isn’t ready to even talk about what it has to teach us.

  140. stephen sheps says:

    VOR: But the view response I got suggests this community isn’t ready to even talk about what it has to teach us.

    VOR,

    I’m not sure that’s a fair statement to make. There are lots folks that drop by here and contribute to the community with varying degrees of education and knowledge but some of the ideas you’re speaking about here are pretty darn advanced. I’m one of many here with a PhD and for the life of me I had no clue what your test was trying to ask. Biomechanics is a field I simply know nothing about and was both intrigued by the potential of the ideas but equally intimidated to try and respond because it was so outside my scope. I’d love to hear about and learn more about where these ideas are coming from – maybe much like how back in the day some of the more analytics driven commenters explained their math, you might be able or willing to do the same with some of these ideas?
    Thanks!

  141. meanashell11 says:

    stephen sheps,

    What Stephen said! +1

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