A time to reap, a time to sow

Peter Chiarelli is entering summer with a newfound cautiousness, and I’ll tell you it’s a pretty fabulous sight. Smart people will point to the irony of doing it this summer instead of 2015, 2016 or 2017, and I’m with them on that point. That said, it’s never too late to do things right, this is not the time to bleed more future for a mere playoff spot in the spring. The Stanley is the goal. Pray baby Jesus the general manager’s words match his deeds over the next 35 days.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your coffee. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

CHIARELLI SPEAKS

The full quote is dynamite, make sure to click and read. As far as Chiarelli’s words, this is the correct answer. Three summers late, and the Oilers could very well miss the playoffs next spring, but it’s the correct answer. Free-agent additions and big trades are useful when you’re completing the roster, and this Oilers team is miles from being that team. Here, once again, is the prospect depth chart.

If you add Kasperi Kotkaniemi, Isac Lundestrom and Axel Andersson to this group, Edmonton will have a quality list for the first time since 2011 summer. Trade the first round selection? Still climbing the mountain.

WHAT ABOUT THE NHL TEAM IN 2018-19?

Keep Klefbom. Keep Nuge. Keep the pick. Keep Jesse Puljujarvi. You might have to suffer through growing pains, and you’re going to have to be honest about the players who aren’t good enough to be NHL regulars.

  • This is a quick example of what the Oilers might be able to do without dealing Klefbom or the No. 10 overall selection. Michael Grabner is unlikely to stay far from Manhattan but he would be a nice addition (can also penalty kill) to the group. I added Austin Czarnik because he has enough skill to play on a prominent line, we don’t know if Rattie or Puljujarvi will hold those jobs (and Caggiula hasn’t been strong on a skill line 5×5).
  • I’m sure some are looking at this and saying ‘it’s not enough’ but the McDavid cluster remains, plus you’ve added a No. 10 and No. 40 overall pick to the prospect group.
  • Goaltending. Anyone who saw the Braden Holtby save late in the third period last night was once again reminded about the importance of the netminder.

Back when I was courting Mrs. Lowetide in Red Deer 35 years ago, Ray Podloski was an impact player for the Red Deer Rustlers. He was dominant at that level, moved on to the Portland Winter Hawks and eventually a brief stay in the NHL with the Boston Bruins. If the measure of a man is the reaction of others in the hours after his passing, Ray Podloski had an enormous impact on the people around him. RIP.

Nick Ellis retired yesterday, after just two seasons in pro hockey. He got an NHL recall, the organization (inexplicably) didn’t use him in a game despite having every reason to do so at the time. A quick check on the rfa’s shows they are being culled in a quick hurry.

  1. LD Darnell Nurse. Led D in scoring (82, 6-20-26) and had his best year so far, although January+ saw regression from an excellent first half. Nurse is part of the future in Edmonton.
  2. RD Matt Benning. He scored 73, 6-15-21 this season and established himself as a solid NHL defender. Seems to be past the concussion of last season and is rock solid as a third pairing option.
  3. RC Ryan Strome. He scored 82, 13-21-34 and that’s exactly in line with expectations. Strome didn’t get much time with McDavid, one of many curios this season.
  4. R Anton Slepyshev. Looks like he’s heading back to the KHL, making the ‘who won that crazy trade’ post obsolete. I still think MacT made a good decision.
  5. L Drake Caggiula. An organization with more options might look to offload Caggiula, he has some coverage issues and is a possession drag on skill lines. Edmonton needs offense and he scored 13 last year, he will be back.
  6. R Iiro Pakarinen. He’s apparently headed across the water, a fine penalty killer and (I think) a useful hire while he was in the organization.
  7. G Nick Ellis. Retired yesterday. Had a strong rookie pro season followed by a mediocre one. He was a legit prospect, wonder if the Oilers would have signed him.
  8. R Patrick Russell. The toughest call on the list in my opinion, Russell does have some nice things on his resume. The downbeat is foot speed and that might catch up to him in contract talks.
  9. LD Ben Betker. He’s a big, strong shutdown type and skates well for a big man. I don’t see him getting a contract but one never knows.
  10. L Braden Christoffer. He delivered a lot of energy and hard work, but is a shy offensive player at the AHL level. It probably means he’ll be moving on.
  11. RC Kyle Platzer. Offense was always the concern and remains so at the end of his contract. I do think Platzer has ability, but will guess the organization walks him.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, gets underway at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Ryan Holt, Bakersfield Condors play by play. We’ll talk Jay Woodcroft and Nick Ellis.
  • Jimmy Morrison, Edmonton Prospects. The season starts tonight!
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. SCF and the lessons of the Golden Knights.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Braden Holtby saves the Capital!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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163 Responses to "A time to reap, a time to sow"

  1. OmJo says:

    So I had a bet with somebody here, can’t remember who it was, that the Oilers would fire one of McLellan or Chiarelli at the end of the year. Unfortunately that didn’t happen, but LT can you confirm you got a $100 donation last week ?

  2. Lowetide says:

    OmJo:
    So I had a bet with somebody here, can’t remember who it was, that the Oilers would fire one of McLellan or Chiarelli at the end of the year. Unfortunately that didn’t happen, but LT can you confirm you got a $100 donation last week ?

    Yes. I can confirm.

  3. Showerhead says:

    A team with McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH should be able to cobble together results from its top two lines. The lack of depth after that is a bit appalling.

    How does a team go from Edmonton, summer 2018 to “good”?

    Sincere question. I think the answer is McDavid, Talbot, special teams, and good fortune.

    How does it it get “great”?

    I struggle to see it. The Oilers are batting .150 against off-season pitching of late and need to go Tim Raines in an awful hurry.

    (Did I baseball right?)

    Anyhow. Started lurking again this week and appreciate the fine work – and similarly fine discussion – I’ve enjoyed reading here. *clap clap*

  4. Clarkenstein says:

    If I was Ellis and couldn’t manage to get in at least a one game call up with the squad the Oil iced last year I’d retire too. This is a sad indictment on how Chia and TMac were more worried about keeping their jobs than they were on developing talent for the future. Just so fucking Oilers!! Grrr.

  5. PunjabiOil says:

    It’s definitely not enough. Ty Rattie has no business being in the NHL, and Caggiula is someone who the Oilers should move on from for perhaps a late round draft pick.

    I think they they need 2 quality wingers, one on the right side.

    Doesn’t necessarily have to be a high end UFA, but a veteran with respectable results.

    Get good players.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Peter is talking out of both sides of his mouth imo

    Consider these quotes, in the same paragraph no less:

    “We’re not going to do anything significant, generally speaking. We felt the year before wasn’t an anomaly. We felt we’d made significant progress (in 2016-17) on a number of different levels and [this season] things went south on a number of different levels.

    So 16/17 was the new normal and 17/18 was the aberration.

    I’m not going to argue that point here (he’s more right than wrong on that point) , I’m just posting it to establish what Peter is thinking.

    Then he says:

    …. we’ve got some holes we’ve got to look at filling. I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at.

    Wait a minute Pete!!!

    In 16/17 EDM had the best PP in the league for most of the season and finished 5th in terms of PP% and 6th in terms of 5v4 GF/60.

    So why does the team need to find a “PP Dman” if the PP was great in 16/17 and that’s your baseline for how the team should perform?

  7. OmJo says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks, now just hope they see that post.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo:
    So I had a bet with somebody here, can’t remember who it was, that the Oilers would fire one of McLellan or Chiarelli at the end of the year. Unfortunately that didn’t happen, but LT can you confirm you got a $100 donation last week ?

    Respect.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Showerhead:
    A team with McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH should be able to cobble together results from its top two lines. The lack of depth after that is a bit appalling.

    How does a team go from Edmonton, summer 2018 to “good”?

    Sincere question. I think the answer is McDavid, Talbot, special teams, and good fortune.

    How does it it get “great”?

    I struggle to see it. The Oilers are batting .150 against off-season pitching of late and need to go Tim Raines in an awful hurry.

    (Did I baseball right?)

    Anyhow. Started lurking again this week and appreciate the fine work – and similarly fine discussion – I’ve enjoyed reading here. *clap clap*

    The Oilers are going to either have a ‘McDavid-Talbot’ winter of success of die on the vine again. Trading Klefbom for Krug (or other) doesn’t change that, so for me stay the course and add good players via the draft. Next summer some of the NMC’s can be moved and maybe JP and KY are bona fide by then. Definitely a building year.

  10. @yeg97 says:

    Why did McDavid’s adversity last year, according to Chia, include “dealing with Todd McLellan”? The coach was part of McDavid’s adversity last year?

    “He’s growing up. Adversity is a good way to describe it. Dealing with him, dealing with (coach) Todd McLellan, dealing with the different issues we had to, you saw that he’s a mature young man and he’s learning.”

  11. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter is talking out of both sides of his mouth imo

    Consider these quotes, in the same paragraph no less:

    “We’re not going to do anything significant, generally speaking. We felt the year before wasn’t an anomaly. We felt we’d made significant progress (in 2016-17) on a number of different levels and [this season] things went south on a number of different levels.

    So 16/17 was the new normal and 17/18 was the aberration.

    I’m not going to argue that point here (he’s more right than wrong on that point) , I’m just posting it to establish what Peter is thinking.

    Then he says:

    …. we’ve got some holes we’ve got to look at filling. I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at.

    Wait a minute Pete!!!

    In 16/17 EDM had the best PP in the league for most of the season and finished 5th in terms of PP% and 6th in terms of 5v4 GF/60.

    So why does the team need to find a “PP Dman” if the PP was great in 16/17 and that’s your baseline for how the team should perform?

    Well I think he is talking out both sides of his mouth, and you’re hoping his talk of the PP d-man is to placate those who think he isn’t trying to improve the team.

    “I’m told by a number of different people”, to me, sounds like someone poking fun at what the fans or MSM or whoever they are are howling for. That’s a pretty cheeky comment to me in print, I’m not sure how it played live.

  12. jm363561 says:

    Lucic – Strome ($2.5m) – Cagguilla

    The guy in the bar, drinking alone, and crying into his beer, might well be R Strome.

  13. russ99 says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers are going to either have a ‘McDavid-Talbot’ winter of success of die on the vine again. Trading Klefbom for Krug (or other) doesn’t change that, so for me stay the course and add good players via the draft. Next summer some of the NMC’s can be moved and maybe JP and KY are bona fide by then. Definitely a building year.

    The problem with this idea is that we have a talent gap at both the NHL level and in the system.

    Where are the players going to come from? I’d think as a fanbase we’d move on from wishful assumptions on prospects. NHLE is a predictable indicator, but it comes down to the players putting up the results at the NHL level.

    We need to add, there’s no other option. Standing pat puts us right back here next year with another wasted McDavid/Draisaitl year, and without a goalie.

  14. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wonder if the Canes would be stupid enough to trade RHD McKeown for Kassian. They’re looking to get tougher.

  15. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter is talking out of both sides of his mouth imo

    Consider these quotes, in the same paragraph no less:

    “We’re not going to do anything significant, generally speaking. We felt the year before wasn’t an anomaly. We felt we’d made significant progress (in 2016-17) on a number of different levels and [this season] things went south on a number of different levels.

    So 16/17 was the new normal and 17/18 was the aberration.

    I’m not going to argue that point here (he’s more right than wrong on that point) , I’m just posting it to establish what Peter is thinking.

    Then he says:

    …. we’ve got some holes we’ve got to look at filling. I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at.

    Wait a minute Pete!!!

    In 16/17 EDM had the best PP in the league for most of the season and finished 5th in terms of PP% and 6th in terms of 5v4 GF/60.

    So why does the team need to find a “PP Dman” if the PP was great in 16/17 and that’s your baseline for how the team should perform?

    Which makes you wonder… Who are these “number of different people” that set the agenda for the summer?

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock: Well I think he is talking out both sides of his mouth, and you’re hoping his talk of the PP d-man is to placate those who think he isn’t trying to improve the team.

    “I’m told by a number of different people”, to me, sounds like someone poking fun at what the fans or MSM or whoever they are are howling for.That’s a pretty cheeky comment to me in print, I’m not sure how it played live.

    You missed an important part that shows he’s not poking fun:

    I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at. Doesn’t mean that these players are just out there.”

    He stops and says “and it’s legitimate”

    It doesn’t sound like he’s poking fun.

  17. PunjabiOil says:

    We need to add, there’s no other option. Standing pat puts us right back here next year, and without a goalie.

    Yup

    It’s the GM’s duty to get creative and come up with solutions. Sometimes, veteran UFAs can deliver significant value and little risk.

    You can’t tell me we can’t do better, going into the season, than Ty Rattie, Drake Cagguilla, and a 20 year old Jesse Puljujarvi on the right wing.

    You just can’t.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo: Which makes you wonder… Who are these “number of different people” that set the agenda for the summer?

    Interesting question.

    Coaches?

    Red Wine Summit?

    Burger Bob?

    His daughter?

    Twitter?

    Stauffer?

    His dog?

    WE DEMAND ANSWERS ON THIS!!!!

  19. OmJo says:

    dustrock: Well I think he is talking out both sides of his mouth, and you’re hoping his talk of the PP d-man is to placate those who think he isn’t trying to improve the team.

    “I’m told by a number of different people”, to me, sounds like someone poking fun at what the fans or MSM or whoever they are are howling for.That’s a pretty cheeky comment to me in print, I’m not sure how it played live.

    Interesting way to interpret that statement. That’s a Lowe blow to the fans if that’s the case.

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    Clarkenstein:
    If I was Ellis and couldn’t manage to get in at least a one game call up with the squad the Oil iced last year I’d retire too. This is a sad indictment on how Chia and TMac were more worried about keeping their jobs than they were on developing talent for the future.Just so fucking Oilers!!Grrr.

    So you think if Ellis played in that game he might not have retired? I wonder how many goalies play even one game in the NHL after two years in the pros. Maybe 10%.

  21. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Interesting question.

    Coaches?

    Red Wine Summit?

    Burger Bob?

    His daughter?

    Twitter?

    Stauffer?

    His dog?

    WE DEMAND ANSWERS ON THIS!!!!

    You forgot the most obvious option: Katzs’ son

  22. McSorley33 says:

    jm363561,

    Lucic – Strome ($2.5m) – Cagguilla

    The guy in the bar, drinking alone, and crying into his beer, might well be R Strome.
    **********************************************************************************************
    I am very meh on Strome…but you are right. I feel sorry for Ryan all of a sudden.

  23. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You missed an important part that shows he’s not poking fun:

    I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at. Doesn’t mean that these players are just out there.”

    He stops and says “and it’s legitimate”

    It doesn’t sound like he’s poking fun.

    Nah, didn’t miss it. I think he walks it back as soon as it’s out of his mouth. “It’s legitimate”.

    Okay. Then he says “that’s something we’ll take a look at” and “those players aren’t just out there”.

    To me, Magic Cue Ball is saying: All Signs Point to No

  24. Rondo says:

    Michael Grabner a healthy scratch for NJ. I see why you think PC would like him.

  25. Dustylegnd says:

    I look at Alex Tuch and see a #18 Overall draft pick that seems to be coming into his own at age 22, big big body at 6’4″ and 222, he has never had great offensive numbers at any level, but put together a respectable 15-22-37. He has passed my eye test in the finals and is undeniably a physical beast

    My point is he reminds me of JP on a few different levels and god help us if the Oil lose patients with our 20 year old Man boy from Northern Finland

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    With good goaltending this team can absolutely make the playoffs. There is no way our roster is worse than the Avs or the Devils. In fact, when we have a good winger for Drai and a good 2 RHD, this will be a decent team.

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    “…and the Oilers could very well miss the playoffs next spring, but it’s the correct answer…”

    Either Lowetide is OK with missing the Playoffs or he’d prefer Peter Chiarelli and Todd Mclelland be fired. I thought the whole object of this Offseason was to make the Oilers better and make the Playoffs.

    Even with above average performance from everyone (highly unlikely) the Oilers still have needs. Shooters on McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s wing, puck-moving D and cheaper/better bottom six. That either costs money which means you can’t control Skill, Cost and Term or it costs assets which get everyone bitching, but let’s you control Skill, Cost and Term.

    It’s simple, fans deserve the Season they get when they wish no one gets traded/released/bought out.
    Getting what you want means no complaints, right?

  28. Dustylegnd says:

    @yeg97:
    Why did McDavid’s adversity last year, according to Chia, include “dealing with Todd McLellan”? The coach was part of McDavid’s adversity last year?

    “He’s growing up. Adversity is a good way to describe it. Dealing with him, dealing with (coach) Todd McLellan, dealing with the different issues we had to, you saw that he’s a mature young man and he’s learning.”

    The only adversity McDavid dealt with was a near death experience with he Flu and a never ending parade of sub par right wingers and shit passes from his D. He is an exceptionally bright kid and was a 2 time OHL academic player of the year, he is clearly thoughtful and mature beyond his years.

    Coaches will come and go, but freak talents will always stay, I have no clue WTF Chia was talking about but it smells of the OBC slurring….he will learn one day….ya well fuck all ya all, he has more talent and class than any of you.

    The Stanley Cup is now a long term project which means Connor waits another 3 years, which is far from the end of the world considering he is probably very effective through his late 30’s ……it now sounds like maybe the collective disfunction called Oilers management has seen the light….or it is a train coming

  29. DBO says:

    with our lack of high end NHL skill beyond the big 3, and a need for cheaper options I find it inevitable that Yamamoto will make the big club. He adds skill to the 2/3 line at RW.

    Nuge – McDavid – Rattie (or anyone really)
    Khaira.UFA – Draisatl – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – Strome – Yamamoto
    Cagguila – UFA add/Kahaira – Kassian
    Aberg – Malone

    The interesting part will be if someone falls in the draft that can step right in. It would be so Oilers to have another recent draft start year with big club, along with Puljujarvi and Yamamoto.

  30. OmJo says:

    Richard S.S.:
    “…and the Oilers could very well miss the playoffs next spring, but it’s the correct answer…”

    Either Lowetide is OK with missing the Playoffs or he’d prefer Peter Chiarelli and Todd Mclelland be fired.I thought the whole object of this Offseason was to make the Oilers better and make the Playoffs.

    Even with above average performance from everyone (highly unlikely) the Oilers still have needs. Shooters on McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s wing, puck-moving D and cheaper/better bottom six.That either costs mone which means you can’t control Skill, Cost and Term or it costs assets which get everyone bitching, but let’s you control Skil, Cost and Term.

    It’s simple, fans deserve the Season they get when they wish no one gets traded/released/bought out.
    Getting what you want means no complaints, right?

    The fans are stuck between a rock (doing nothing) and a hard place (trusting Chiarelli to properly manage assets in a trade) due to how the team has managed itself for the last 3 (13?) years. Staying the course is the lesser of two evils because (1) we have little cap space to work with and (2) we have few assets to work with.

  31. Yeti says:

    @yeg97:
    Why did McDavid’s adversity last year, according to Chia, include “dealing with Todd McLellan”? The coach was part of McDavid’s adversity last year?

    “He’s growing up. Adversity is a good way to describe it. Dealing with him, dealing with (coach) Todd McLellan, dealing with the different issues we had to, you saw that he’s a mature young man and he’s learning.”

    I don’t think you need to interpret like that: he’s not saying that dealing with TMc is part of the adversity facing Connor. Rather, he’s saying that in his [i.e. PC’s] dealings with Connor, TMc and the issues, he saw that Connor is maturing and learning.

  32. dustrock says:

    Dustylegnd:
    I look at Alex Tuch and see a #18 Overall draft pick that seems to be coming into his own at age 22, big big body at 6’4″ and 222, he has never had great offensive numbers at any level, but put together a respectable 15-22-37. He has passed my eye test in the finals and is undeniably a physical beast

    My point is he reminds me of JP on a few different levels and god help us if the Oil lose patients with our 20 year old Man boy from Northern Finland

    Absolutely – also worth noting that Pronman has Jesse ranked extremely high on his list of the top 31 prospects of the last 5 years.

    He’s #6, over Ekblad, Svechnikov, Marner, Zadina, Draisaitl etc.

    So let’s not throw him away for nothing.

  33. DBO says:

    I hope he holds off on July 1st and looks at the pile after the 10th of July or even later. I expect we may see the low end kind of signings. I would be Ok with a few 1 year deals, max 2 year deals for players like:

    Tyler Bozak
    Jannik Hansen

    Both are 32. Bring experience, can PK and still skate. Both are two way players not far removed from decent scoring numbers and could be a solid fit to make sure our young kids are forced to earn their spots instead of being gifted it based on lack of anyone in front of them and money. And would be upgrade our 4th line and our PK. without breaking the bank.

    Ideally I would love to see them make a trade for Reider out of LA. Fits perfectly in our top 9 and fills a huge need without costing too much money. Asset acquisition cost shouldn’t be crazy either, although that would mean we send them Klefbom.

  34. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Is the team that far off? Not to me. They have the key core pieces in place. If PC can do a competent job of finding a couple of wingers that can cash a few and not get their heads kicked in and some vets that can still actually help they’ll be a solid team.

    They only need the easy parts. I feel they were lazy in acquiring Jokinen in not doing due diligence, but the idea was right. This time do some work, they have 2 new coaches that should have input on players they’ve dealt with and seen.

    They need a few guys that can support the youth with solid 2 way play and a few points, and PK. They are out there every summer or can be acquired with lesser assets. Other teams do it. The Oilers can if they pull their heads out, of which of course I am not confident.

    Many GMs would be more than happy with what the Oilers have now. It would suck to be a deep team that lacks game changers and a range of young talent. That is a very hard hill to climb, ask Nashville and St Louis after years of solid reg seasons and playoff disappointments.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    Chiarelli Interview:

    With you holding the No. 10 pick, do you have any specific philosophy going into the draft?

    “I think generally you look at the best player. Where we pick you have a pretty good sense of who’s going to be there. Unless someone significant falls, there are three or four players at different positions who are at the same talent level. At this point it may be by positional need. But you can’t ignore the best-skilled player. That’s generally our principle.”

    Are you looking to trade up, or down, or just stand pat?

    “Well we actually dropped down one [spot] in the [NHL Draft] Lottery. We’d been planning at No. 9 for a while but we knew we could drop down. I know there are teams ahead of us who have positional needs different from ours so that usually means there is an ability to move up. We would look at that.”

    Who are the teams he is referencing that are ahead of us that have clear positional needs

    The most obvious to me is Montreal….who need center(s)

    Who else?

    1 Buffalo Sabres Dahlin
    2 Carolina Hurricanes BPA? Center? Svech?
    3 Montreal Canadiens Center
    4 Ottawa Senators Karlsson Replacment
    5 Arizona Coyotes BPA
    6 Detroit Red Wings BPA
    7 Vancouver Canucks BPA or D
    8 Chicago Blackhawks ??
    9 New York Rangers BPA
    10 Edmonton Oilers

  36. anjinsan says:

    Chiarelli = small ball good + big ball incompetent.
    If he stays small, then good.
    But can he resist swinging big (and desperate)? I think not. Oh, the disgraces he’ll go.

  37. elgruntus says:

    Played my first three years of minor hockey with Ray Podloski. That first year, I remember Ray used his stick to stay upright and the boards to stop. He improved at a rapid pace and was leaving the rest of us in his dust by the end of year three. So proud when he made “the show”.
    Great memories. Great guy. Always classy. RIP my friend

  38. commonfan29 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Wait a minute Pete!!!

    In 16/17 EDM had the best PP in the league for most of the season and finished 5th in terms of PP% and 6th in terms of 5v4 GF/60.

    So why does the team need to find a “PP Dman” if the PP was great in 16/17 and that’s your baseline for how the team should perform?

    Easy. Jordan Eberle was a PP Dman all along, but we all missed it.

    We should really watch the games.

  39. Lexx says:

    Hey Lowetide, any chance a Patches for Sekera hockey trade would work?

    I’ve read a few place Montreal is looking for someone to pair with Weber and we all know the Oil are looking for an upgrade on the wing, might be a nice fit beside Drai. Contracts are similar dollar wise and if we use the winger / defensemen trade template, the value seems to be about right. Both had down years by their standards and might be a good gamble for both teams.

  40. Dustylegnd says:

    Lexx:
    Hey Lowetide, any chance a Patches for Sekera hockey trade would work?

    I’ve read a few place Montreal is looking for someone to pair with Weber and we all know the Oil are looking for an upgrade on the wing, might be a nice fit beside Drai. Contracts are similar dollar wise and if we use the winger / defensemen trade template, the value seems to be about right. Both had down years by their standards and might be a good gamble for both teams.

    Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, who pre-tell replaces Sek? we tried a year without the real Sek….didn’t end well for our D corps……or the team

  41. Andy Dufresne says:

    “Peter Chiarelli is entering summer with a newfound cautiousness, and I’ll tell you it’s a pretty fabulous sight. Smart people will point to the irony of doing it this summer instead of 2015, 2016 or 2017, and I’m with them on that point.”

    I guess Im not smart…..because I saw a huge need to rebalance the roster based on a decade of mis-management.

    Wasnt sure if this would be the summer where…due to the re-balancing of the past two years…..things could return to some semblence of normality……but it appears that that may be the case.

  42. Scungilli Slushy says:

    You know the 2016/2017 team was a knee injury and competent reffing away from the WC finals despite being so young at the top.

    Yes Talbot was hot and they had some luck, but every team that goes deep in the playoffs has that.

  43. texmex says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    https://www.tsn.ca/off-season-watch-the-suitors-for-kovalchuk-1.1099678

    “The Detroit Red Wings own the sixth-overall pick in next month’s draft, but general manager Ken Holland said the team may consider trading the selection.

    Holland told Craig Custance of The Athletic that while the team has little appetite to move up in the draft, he is open to moving down to acquire more assets.

    “I’ve started to talk to some teams about a lot,” Holland told The Athletic. “As you work your way towards (host) Dallas at the draft, draft movement possibilities – I think at this stage in the game, everybody is kicking tires as to what might be out there…

    “I’m open to possibly move.”

    Custance reports that the Red Wings preference is to select a defenceman or a centre with their top pick and have no plans to move out of the Top 10.”

  44. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter is talking out of both sides of his mouth imo

    Consider these quotes, in the same paragraph no less:

    “We’re not going to do anything significant, generally speaking. We felt the year before wasn’t an anomaly. We felt we’d made significant progress (in 2016-17) on a number of different levels and [this season] things went south on a number of different levels.

    So 16/17 was the new normal and 17/18 was the aberration.

    I’m not going to argue that point here (he’s more right than wrong on that point) , I’m just posting it to establish what Peter is thinking.

    Then he says:

    …. we’ve got some holes we’ve got to look at filling. I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at.

    Wait a minute Pete!!!

    In 16/17 EDM had the best PP in the league for most of the season and finished 5th in terms of PP% and 6th in terms of 5v4 GF/60.

    So why does the team need to find a “PP Dman” if the PP was great in 16/17 and that’s your baseline for how the team should perform?

    You make a very good point. This is the kind of question I wish the main stream media would ask in these interviews.

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lexx:
    Hey Lowetide, any chance a Patches for Sekera hockey trade would work?

    I’ve read a few place Montreal is looking for someone to pair with Weber and we all know the Oil are looking for an upgrade on the wing, might be a nice fit beside Drai. Contracts are similar dollar wise and if we use the winger / defensemen trade template, the value seems to be about right. Both had down years by their standards and might be a good gamble for both teams.

    Ask Habs fans and they’ll say RNH and Klef.

  46. Rondo says:

    texmex,

    I think there is a chance Barrett Hayton may go in the top 10. Wouldn’t shock me if Montreal took Kotkaniemi at #3. Speaking of centres

  47. Clarkenstein says:

    JimmyV1965: So you think if Ellis played in that game he might not have retired? I wonder how many goalies play even one game in the NHL after two years in the pros. Maybe 10%.

    Oh come on that’s not a fair assumption at all. I was merely pointing out that he may have thought “if I can’t get a call up in a season that has gone to shit then to hell with it!” Who’s to say he might have come up threw a shutout and they take a longer look. I hope for his sake he gets another chance somewhere someday.

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: You make a very good point.This is the kind of question I wish the main stream media would ask in these interviews.

    Of course, we’ve all had time to read the quotes. The media can’t pore over each word of the quotes while conducting an interview at the same time.

  49. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock: Well I think he is talking out both sides of his mouth, and you’re hoping his talk of the PP d-man is to placate those who think he isn’t trying to improve the team.

    “I’m told by a number of different people”, to me, sounds like someone poking fun at what the fans or MSM or whoever they are are howling for.That’s a pretty cheeky comment to me in print, I’m not sure how it played live.

    I get your point….however right after he says…“I’m told by a number of different people”….he adds…..”and its legitimate”…….making it clearly not “poking fun / cheeky / sarcastic”

  50. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Interesting question.

    Coaches?

    Red Wine Summit?

    Burger Bob?

    His daughter?

    Twitter?

    Stauffer?

    His dog?

    WE DEMAND ANSWERS ON THIS!!!!

    Would defintely be interesting to know.

    An analytics resource?
    Coaches?
    Managers?
    The Shadow Cabinet?

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Today is the last day to sign Adam Mascherin (and various other 2016 draft picks) before he goes back to the draft. We know that FLA isn’t going to sign him so I’m sure he’ll be traded today.

    I wonder if the Oilers are in on him (and have received permission to speak with his people re: contract).

  52. rickithebear says:

    WG: I just posted a couple responses with further response to the 2 glove positions I meant as well as
    Told Vor that my latch is talking to everyone I can at party,s and holidays. I honestly like to talking to people about thier lwork, family, holiday and lives. Cause they often cannot talk to me about things I know less about. On holidays the tell you local secrets. Like Mary,s falls in cape breton we’re you climb to the top of the waterfalls then slide down 3 sets of smooth rock of less than 35 degree slopes to 3 lower pools. Etc.

    You mentioned an extensive career in wood grading and analysis. When I worked for parks Canada we flew just over the forests in PANP. Looking for higher level trees. GPS co-ordinates. Than do coring of trees in clustered squares of high potential genetics.

    Was that something you delt with in as your industry advanced. I am not sure I have asked you in the past.

  53. VOR says:

    I don’t want to thread jack in anyway but Ricki said something at the the end of the last thread that I know is wrong. Not his fault, he probably thinks it is correct.

    He said, “When I first had kinetics discussion with the ubc prof teaching at the UofSK in early 80,s it was the first Studies that paired human mechanics with theory in Canada. Not Russia.”

    This is not even close to being accurate. This honor belongs to my friend, my mentor, the guy who turned me from a good scientist who dabbled in coaching into a professional coach and a way better scientist, a mad Hungarian named Gabor Simonyi. And it all happened in the little town of North Battleford, Saskatchewan.

    http://thestarphoenix.com/sports/local-sports/visits-with-gabor-how-a-hungarian-coach-made-north-battleford-a-throwers-paradise

    It only mentions all the research in passing but those scholarly articles he wrote mattered. Pioneers in the field of biomechanics, kinesiology, and sport science were deeply influenced by Gabor. Gideon Ariel was fond of quoting Gabor – “Biomechanics is the first marriage between the biological and physical sciences. It requires a mastery of anatomy, physiology, physics, and mathematics.” The number of people who have plagiarized that is astounding. Today you will find it, usually unattributed, in nearly every intro textbook in the field.

    Gabor is the one who got me interested in things like better prosthetic limbs, coaching paralympians, and research into signal control of nerves in para and quadriplegics. He was utterly fascinating to talk with. The use of the word “guru” in the linked article is spot on. There was something mystical about the man.

    He also coached athletes for the King of the Klondike (I don’t know how many of you remember that competition). From Neal Manson through Bruce Magyar the winners were all Gabor products.

    Ricki, I shoot a Anschutz 1827 – Fortner in Biathlon and mostly I shoot a Marrochi Evo in skeet competition but if I am just playing at home I shoot a Breda 930i or an antique Purdy,

  54. Rafa Nadal says:

    texmex:
    Andy Dufresne,

    https://www.tsn.ca/off-season-watch-the-suitors-for-kovalchuk-1.1099678

    “The Detroit Red Wings own the sixth-overall pick in next month’s draft, but general manager Ken Holland said the team may consider trading the selection.

    Holland told Craig Custance of The Athletic that while the team has little appetite to move up in the draft, he is open to moving down to acquire more assets.

    “I’ve started to talk to some teams about a lot,” Holland told The Athletic. “As you work your way towards (host) Dallas at the draft, draft movement possibilities – I think at this stage in the game, everybody is kicking tires as to what might be out there…

    “I’m open to possibly move.”

    Custance reports that the Red Wings preference is to select a defenceman or a centre with their top pick and have no plans to move out of the Top 10.”

    #10 and Pulju for #6 and Athanasiou

  55. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965: Of course, we’ve all had time to read the quotes. The media can’t pore over each word of the quotes while conducting an interview at the same time.

    Actually they can IMO. Its a simple as saying to him in the next media avail ” The last time you spoke….you said “XXX” can you please explain the contradiction?”

  56. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – It’s an interesting position we here at at. While there is a dicotomy of views for last season, it’s almost universally held that barring some “stealing” we shouldn’t do anything major in this off-season to improve

    – Just as last year, the consensus was: “we will be a very good team”

    – My take is that with a few tweaks, and maybe a deadline move or two, we are well-positioned to go deep into the playoffs, and led everyone just get better and gell and we have the foundation

    – But this is the same view I had last off-season…

  57. Andy Dufresne says:

    texmex:
    Andy Dufresne,

    https://www.tsn.ca/off-season-watch-the-suitors-for-kovalchuk-1.1099678

    “The Detroit Red Wings own the sixth-overall pick in next month’s draft, but general manager Ken Holland said the team may consider trading the selection.

    Holland told Craig Custance of The Athletic that while the team has little appetite to move up in the draft, he is open to moving down to acquire more assets.

    “I’ve started to talk to some teams about a lot,” Holland told The Athletic. “As you work your way towards (host) Dallas at the draft, draft movement possibilities – I think at this stage in the game, everybody is kicking tires as to what might be out there…

    “I’m open to possibly move.”

    Custance reports that the Red Wings preference is to select a defenceman or a centre with their top pick and have no plans to move out of the Top 10.”

    Very cool. Thanks.

    So so far, we’ve got Detroit, and perhaps Montreal who Chia could be referencing.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, does that cap calculation include the Pouliot buyout? I think it does.

    I think your RFA re-signings are about right but they could end up being on the low end. Strome could definitely come in at $3M and Nurse could very well come in $1M higher if he goes with term.

    About $800K for Jesse’s bonus cushion is probably reasonable but I’ve been using $1.25M in my non-expert calculations.

    If Nurse comes in higher, there really is no room to improve via UFA which is fine – stay the damn course and keep the core (77, 6, 25, 97, 93, 29) and the 10th.

  59. VOR says:

    ricki,

    My glove arm is always near my body. almost hanging with a slight hole under my armpit and oddly my fingers point toward my knee. I did say I was anatomically weird. It never really comes to rest, the glove is almost always moving. My shoulder is just slightly abducted. My Teres Major, Triceps Brachii and Deltoid muscles are all slightly concentrically loaded.

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I think Ellis retired because he had a poor SV% in the ECHL, he’s 24 and isn’t delusional. Time to get life on the go.

  61. texmex says:

    Rafa Nadal,

    I’d love to get Athanasiou, but I would not give up on Pool Party.

    Does #10 + #40 + Caggs or Strome get you #6 +Athanasiou?? Sucks having no 2nd rounder this year, but Athanasiou is 23.

    Wings have a ton of picks this year so not sure they’d want #40?

  62. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter is talking out of both sides of his mouth imo

    Consider these quotes, in the same paragraph no less:

    “We’re not going to do anything significant, generally speaking. We felt the year before wasn’t an anomaly. We felt we’d made significant progress (in 2016-17) on a number of different levels and [this season] things went south on a number of different levels.

    So 16/17 was the new normal and 17/18 was the aberration.

    I’m not going to argue that point here (he’s more right than wrong on that point) , I’m just posting it to establish what Peter is thinking.

    Then he says:

    …. we’ve got some holes we’ve got to look at filling. I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at.

    Wait a minute Pete!!!

    In 16/17 EDM had the best PP in the league for most of the season and finished 5th in terms of PP% and 6th in terms of 5v4 GF/60.

    So why does the team need to find a “PP Dman” if the PP was great in 16/17 and that’s your baseline for how the team should perform?

    So what do you think hes up to…..Minor Tweaks….and a RHD PP Dman…..?? To me its the single most intriguing question going into the draft/summer. How does anyone reconcile these two statements?

    Where do they get a PP 2RHD given our cap situation and without giving up a significant asset?

    2019 1st ? (i.e. the 31st overall pick…..haha)
    Plus a non NHL roster prospect?
    Cap at 82m ?

    Would probably be a younger, value contract at $3.5 million or less.

    A Damon Severson type?

    From The Hockey Writers:

    “Severson just enjoyed his most productive season. His nine goals and 20 points at even-strength were both career highs, but he saw his ice time drop below the 20-minute mark under Hynes. Among all New Jersey Devils defencemen, Severson had only the fifth-highest ice time. He was also a healthy scratch for the first game of the playoffs.
    .
    It’s troubling that the Devils’ current head coach seems to be souring on Severson, especially since he’s signed for the next five seasons. Although his skating ability and offensive instincts are good, there are questions about his defensive game. It seems unlikely that the Devils give up on Severson, but they do have younger defencemen such as Will Butcher and Steven Santini who are challenging him for ice time.”

  63. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Also just a question: why is Chia’s stated position (never trust what a GM says), i.e. no big moves, the right position now, while last year after the poor start then many were clamouring for Chia to be fired because he did not do big moves, and the team sucked, and the results were terrible? Asking for a friend?

  64. Death By Misadventure says:

    jm363561:
    Lucic – Strome ($2.5m) – Cagguilla

    The guy in the bar, drinking alone, and crying into his beer, might well be R Strome.

    That’s one expensive 4th line.

    I kid, but just barely.

  65. franksterra says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    My guess is Coffey and a Gretzky.

  66. Pink Socks says:

    Andy Dufresne: So what do you think hes up to…..Minor Tweaks….and a RHD PP Dman…..??To me its the single most intriguing question going into the draft/summer.How does anyone reconcile these two statements?

    Where do they get a PP 2RHD given our cap situation and without giving up a significant asset?

    2019 1st ?(i.e. the 31st overall pick…..haha)
    Plus a non NHL roster prospect?
    Cap at 82m?

    Would probably be a younger, value contract at $3.5 million or less.

    A Damon Severson type?

    From The Hockey Writers:

    “Severson just enjoyed his most productive season. His nine goals and 20 points at even-strength were both career highs, but he saw his ice time drop below the 20-minute mark under Hynes. Among all New Jersey Devils defencemen, Severson had only the fifth-highest ice time. He was also a healthy scratch for the first game of the playoffs.
    .
    It’s troubling that the Devils’ current head coach seems to be souring on Severson, especially since he’s signed for the next five seasons. Although his skating ability and offensive instincts are good, there are questions about his defensive game. It seems unlikely that the Devils give up on Severson, but they do have younger defencemen such as Will Butcher and Steven Santini who are challenging him for ice time.”

    Severson would be great, but I doubt NJ is in any rush to move him. That and if PC trades for another RHD out of NJ this place will erupt.

  67. treevojo says:

    OmJo:
    So I had a bet with somebody here, can’t remember who it was, that the Oilers would fire one of McLellan or Chiarelli at the end of the year. Unfortunately that didn’t happen, but LT can you confirm you got a $100 donation last week ?

    That bet was with me.

    You paid early.

    You still had to the end of the playoffs for one of them to be fired.

    For a while there I thought it was going to go the other way.

    Cheers!

  68. Rondo says:

    Pink Socks,

    “Severson would be great, but I doubt NJ is in any rush to move him. That and if PC trades for another RHD out of NJ this place will erupt.”

    Love those healthy scratches in the playoffs because he doesn’t play well on the defensive side.

  69. crabman says:

    texmex,

    I would prefer to trade down and out of the top 10 if we could add assets rather than trade players off our roster.
    I wonder who would have to fall to 10 for Philly to be interested in trading up and giving us th 14 and 19. there would still be lots of skill in the 14-19 range and adding 2 top 20 picks instead of 1 could greatly improve our prospect pool.
    Farabee at 14 and the most skilled D left at 19, maybe Merkley

  70. crabman says:

    Would Dallas consider moving 13 and Faksa for the Oilers 10th. The Oilers might need to add a prospect to balance it out but if the player Dallas wants falls to 10 we might be able to add a good young roster player under team control and a top prospect at the same time.

  71. Oilman99 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    I look at Alex Tuch and see a #18 Overall draft pick that seems to be coming into his own at age 22, big big body at 6’4″ and 222, he has never had great offensive numbers at any level, but put together a respectable 15-22-37. He has passed my eye test in the finals and is undeniably a physical beast

    My point is he reminds me of JP on a few different levels and god help us if the Oil lose patients with our 20 year old Man boy from Northern Finland

    JP has to get much more physical, and drive to the net with determination. He needs to stop shooting from the blue line, and try to create more in the o-zone rather than turn the puck over with a Hail Mary shot.

  72. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, does that cap calculation include the Pouliot buyout?I think it does.

    I think your RFA re-signings are about right but they could end up being on the low end. Strome could definitely come in at $3M and Nurse could very well come in $1M higher if he goes with term.

    About $800K for Jesse’s bonus cushion is probably reasonable but I’ve been using $1.25M in my non-expert calculations.

    If Nurse comes in higher, there really is no room to improve via UFA which is fine – stay the damn course and keep the core (77, 6, 25, 97, 93, 29) and the 10th.

    Strome at $3m is an overpay, Nurse on a bridge deal,then hope the cap continues to rise,at which time you can give him the long term deal.

  73. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Actually they can IMO. Its a simple as saying to him in the next media avail ” The last time you spoke….you said “XXX” can you please explain the contradiction?”

    When will that be? Maybe after the draft. Maybe in September. And then it’s a non issue. The only time this is possible is if the reporter chats with the subject on a regular basis.

  74. Pink Socks says:

    Rondo:
    Pink Socks,

    “Severson would be great, but I doubt NJ is in any rush to move him. That and if PC trades for another RHD out of NJ this place will erupt.”

    Love those healthy scratches in the playoffs because he doesn’t play well on the defensive side.

    I don’t see any correlation between him sitting the first game of the playoffs and NJD wanting to trade out a 23 year old RHD on a good contract for the next 5 years.

    Also, after the healthy scratch Severson led all Devils D in 5v5 ice time. It sounds more along the lines that the organization is developing him.

  75. Pink Socks says:

    Oilman99: He needs to stop shooting from the blue line

    It is documented here that the head coach is instructing him to shoot from the blueline to create rebounds. Hopefully Vivieros can help him and develop him properly instead of the watching TMac do more harm than good over the past 2 years.

  76. admiralmark says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Interesting question.

    Coaches?

    Red Wine Summit?

    Burger Bob?

    His daughter?

    Twitter?

    Stauffer?

    His dog?

    WE DEMAND ANSWERS ON THIS!!!!

    He’s talking about the voices in his head. This putz is looking to deal Klefbom in hopes of saving his own ass. In his head he needs them to make the playoffs whatever the cost may be.

  77. Scungilli Slushy says:

    texmex:
    Rafa Nadal,

    I’d love to get Athanasiou, but I would not give up on Pool Party.

    Does #10 + #40 + Caggs or Strome get you #6 +Athanasiou?? Sucks having no 2nd rounder this year, but Athanasiou is 23.

    Wings have a ton of picks this year so not sure they’d want #40?

    I’m not sure they move ahead this way. 6 doesn’t necessarily mean and probably isn’t a clearly better prospect, Strome is healthier and as productive and a centre same age really. Cags wouldn’t get Athanasiou.

  78. commonfan29 says:

    Not a lot of talk about JP being eligible for an extension on July 1st.

    I wonder if the team is at all thinking about this being a chance to get him signed long-term before he breaks out.

    My guess is they don’t have that level of faith in him.

  79. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: So what do you think hes up to…..Minor Tweaks….and a RHD PP Dman…..??To me its the single most intriguing question going into the draft/summer.How does anyone reconcile these two statements?

    Where do they get a PP 2RHD given our cap situation and without giving up a significant asset?

    2019 1st ?(i.e. the 31st overall pick…..haha)
    Plus a non NHL roster prospect?
    Cap at 82m?

    Would probably be a younger, value contract at $3.5 million or less.

    A Damon Severson type?

    From The Hockey Writers:

    “Severson just enjoyed his most productive season. His nine goals and 20 points at even-strength were both career highs, but he saw his ice time drop below the 20-minute mark under Hynes. Among all New Jersey Devils defencemen, Severson had only the fifth-highest ice time. He was also a healthy scratch for the first game of the playoffs.
    .
    It’s troubling that the Devils’ current head coach seems to be souring on Severson, especially since he’s signed for the next five seasons. Although his skating ability and offensive instincts are good, there are questions about his defensive game. It seems unlikely that the Devils give up on Severson, but they do have younger defencemen such as Will Butcher and Steven Santini who are challenging him for ice time.”

    I wouldn’t trade a first round pick for a player that age not killing it. Benning is as good or better.

    The Oilers biggest problem is that if Connor is off ice they get outscored. Adding more offensive players that can’t play 200 ft won’t make them better, more goals isn’t the problem, too many against is.

    Incoming players only need to have a normal NHL game, be able to pass and play a system reliably. That in itself will drive goals up by increasing possession and GA down. It would also improve the goalie’s numbers if things were more normal in front of them.

    Vegas success isn’t based on talent (Vegas isn’t as talented as the Caps or Jets IMO) its players executing everything well as a group, playing with pace which causes breakdowns and Fleury at the top of his game.

    A big part of losing to Anaheim was breakdowns. PC and coach mentioned it as well. I think the Oilers need stability more than anything and mid level vets can bring that.

  80. Alpine says:

    Rafa Nadal: #10 and Pulju for #6 and Athanasiou

    Think including JP and the 6 is a bit counter-intuitive. I’d almost go 10 straight up for Athanasiou. Detroit can get two potential cornerstones with those picks or trade up to get Svechnikov. We need wingers and trading Puljujarvi for an 18 year old that won’t make it for a couple years doesn’t really help our roster issues now.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’d have some time for Chris Wideman. I’d be interested to hear how he looks in Woodguy’s analyses. Seemed to be a borderline 2RD to me a couple seasons ago. Tore his hamstring last season. Could’ve sworn he was OTT’s second best D (low praise) when healthy.

  82. Pink Socks says:

    Alpine: Think including JP and the 6 is a bit counter-intuitive. I’d almost go 10 straight up for Athanasiou. Detroit can get two potential cornerstones with those picks or trade up to get Svechnikov. We need wingers and trading Puljujarvi for an 18 year old that won’t make it for a couple years doesn’t really help our roster issues now.

    Interesting I was thinking the same thing. If #10 rolls around and all the RHD are gone and the choice is Kotkaniemi or Smith or Veleno, the deal is close to even value. That being said, I think Detroit may take #40 for him (which I do in an instant). After last summer’s contract mess between the two parties, Athanasiou probably wouldn’t be disappointed to have a fresh start.

  83. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    texmex,

    I think there is a chance Barrett Hayton may go in the top 10. Wouldn’t shock me if Montreal took Kotkaniemi at #3. Speaking of centres

    Wouldn’t that be great! Means the Oilers will have some good choices at #10… no need to spend assets trading up when the people above you start reaching with their picks.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Alpine: Think including JP and the 6 is a bit counter-intuitive. I’d almost go 10 straight up for Athanasiou. Detroit can get two potential cornerstones with those picks or trade up to get Svechnikov. We need wingers and trading Puljujarvi for an 18 year old that won’t make it for a couple years doesn’t really help our roster issues now.

    I wouldn’t trade a 10 for a 30 point player with an injury history

  85. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Today is the last day to sign Adam Mascherin (and various other 2016 draft picks) before he goes back to the draft. We know that FLA isn’t going to sign him so I’m sure he’ll be traded today

    I’m not sure why you’re sure he will be traded. It’s by no means a certain thing.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – It’s an interesting position we here at at.While there is a dicotomy of views for last season, it’s almost universally held that barring some “stealing” we shouldn’t do anything major in this off-season to improve

    – Just as last year, the consensus was: “we will be a very good team”

    – My take is that with a few tweaks, and maybe a deadline move or two, we are well-positioned to go deep into the playoffs, and led everyone just get better and gell and we have the foundation

    – But this is the same view I had last off-season…

    Last year there were expectations. The Oilers this summer can choose:

    1. Dealing Klefbom for a better chance to make the playoffs
    2.Keep adding talent via the draft and small moves (PC is generally good at smaller moves) understanding it’s a build and there is a long way to go.

  87. Jordan says:

    Thoughts rolling around my head:

    If you could trade Lucic straight up for Phil Kessel, would you? Would the Oilers? Would the Pens?

    If Lucic doesn’t recover any speed/quickness/eyesight over the summer, how do you create a miss-match with him that doesn’t hurt the Oilers? Does he need to be on the 4th line to be able to keep up? Or is he playing himself out of the league?

    How can the Oilers add more speed off the wings if they keep the same players they had last year?

    Is there enough value in this draft to make trading one of our LHD prospects like Caleb Jones viable? Or is the draft class weak enough that it’s a poor bet? Does it depend on the return?

  88. Pink Socks says:

    Jordan:
    Thoughts rolling around my head:

    If you could trade Lucic straight up for Phil Kessel, would you?Would the Oilers?Would the Pens?

    Doc Holliday couldn’t pull a trigger faster. I think if this happened there would be parties in the streets in Edmonton and PC will be forgiven for all of his mistakes. I just don’t see why the Pens would trade a 92 point player for 1G in the last 40 games.

    Jordan:
    If Lucic doesn’t recover any speed/quickness/eyesight over the summer, how do you create a miss-match with him that doesn’t hurt the Oilers?Does he need to be on the 4th line to be able to keep up?Or is he playing himself out of the league?

    If Lucic doesn’t recover, the best mismatch in the Oilers’ favor is having him in the pressbox.

    Jordan:
    How can the Oilers add more speed off the wings if they keep the same players they had last year?

    Lucic in the pressbox helps, but it’s more of the “play faster” need than just speed. A few astute low money signings by PC should help enough. He needs to rebuild that bottom 6 almost entirely.

  89. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: we’ve got some holes we’ve got to look at filling. I’m told by a number of different people — and it’s legitimate — that we need a power-play defenseman. That’s something that we’ll look at.

    Now we know what Chia thinks of K-Bomb.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I’m not sure why you’re sure he will be traded.It’s by no means a certain thing.

    He should be traded if FLA management is competent. He’s not signing there so they simply lose his rights with no compensation. There is zero reason to keep him, even flipping him for a 7th rounder is better.

  91. John Chambers says:

    texmex:
    Andy Dufresne,

    https://www.tsn.ca/off-season-watch-the-suitors-for-kovalchuk-1.1099678

    “The Detroit Red Wings own the sixth-overall pick in next month’s draft, but general manager Ken Holland said the team may consider trading the selection.

    Holland told Craig Custance of The Athletic that while the team has little appetite to move up in the draft, he is open to moving down to acquire more assets.

    “I’ve started to talk to some teams about a lot,” Holland told The Athletic. “As you work your way towards (host) Dallas at the draft, draft movement possibilities – I think at this stage in the game, everybody is kicking tires as to what might be out there…

    “I’m open to possibly move.”

    Custance reports that the Red Wings preference is to select a defenceman or a centre with their top pick and have no plans to move out of the Top 10.”

    Who would need to still be there at #6 for you to want to trade, say, a 2nd rounder for the priviledge of drafting four spots higher?

    Tkachuk, Wahlstrom, or maybe even Zadina? Any of the defensemen particularly attractive as compared to the others to consider the manoever?

  92. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar: He should be traded if FLA management is competent.He’s not signing there so they simply lose his rights with no compensation. There is zero reason to keep him, even flipping him for a 7th rounder is better.

    I think FLA would get a compensatory pick if he re-enters the draft, but I could be mistaken.

  93. OmJo says:

    treevojo: That bet was with me.

    You paid early.

    You still had to the end of the playoffs for one of them to be fired.

    For a while there I thought it was going to go the other way.

    Cheers!

    Oops lol I thought I paid late XD

    Same here, thought at least TMac’s fate was sealed at seasons end. But now… Well I think it’s safe to say both will be back to start the season so it’s all good. I figured if they weren’t fired by now they’ll be sticking around.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pink Socks: I think FLA would get a compensatory pick if he re-enters the draft, but I could be mistaken.

    Nope – that’s only for 1st round picks.

  95. texmex says:

    Pink Socks,

    From who?

  96. OmJo says:

    Lowetide: Last year there were expectations. The Oilers this summer can choose:

    1. Dealing Klefbom for a better chance to make the playoffs
    2.Keep adding talent via the draft and small moves (PC is generally good at smaller moves) understanding it’s a build and there is a long way to go.

    This sums it up. Nobody is expecting this club to be competing for the Stanley Cup this upcoming season. The organization just needs to explain to season ticket holders what the plan is, and why it is, if they decide to not go all in for a playoff run.

    Would fans have given up the playoff run in 16-17 if it meant the team was much stronger for 17-18/18-19 and capable of putting up consistent playoff runs?

  97. OmJo says:

    Jordan:
    Thoughts rolling around my head:

    If you could trade Lucic straight up for Phil Kessel, would you?Would the Oilers?Would the Pens?

    If Lucic doesn’t recover any speed/quickness/eyesight over the summer, how do you create a miss-match with him that doesn’t hurt the Oilers?Does he need to be on the 4th line to be able to keep up?Or is he playing himself out of the league?

    How can the Oilers add more speed off the wings if they keep the same players they had last year?

    Is there enough value in this draft to make trading one of our LHD prospects like Caleb Jones viable?Or is the draft class weak enough that it’s a poor bet?Does it depend on the return?

    Abso-freakin-lutely!

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex:
    Pink Socks,

    From who?

    From “treasury”.

    If a first round pick doesn’t sign and re-enters the draft (or, if he’s older than 20, becomes a UFA), the team gets an additional pick in the draft – the same numerical number but in the 2nd round.

  99. ArmchairGM says:

    Rafa Nadal: #10 and Pulju for #6 and Athanasiou

    Another lost trade.

  100. flea says:

    Jordan,

    I think the Pens are looking more for salary relief and to bolster their defensive core.

    They’d prob want a package around Klefbom, maybe JP but I don’t see a good fit between the teams.

    Kessel for Yamamoto, Klefbom

    I still don’t think the Pens do it, and I think the trade hurts the Oilers too much to do it as well.

  101. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: He should be traded if FLA management is competent.He’s not signing there so they simply lose his rights with no compensation. There is zero reason to keep him, even flipping him for a 7th rounder is better.

    It might have nothing to do with competency. If he wants to re-enter the draft, no team will trade for his rights. We don’t know his mindframe so there is uncertainty.

  102. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nope – that’s only for 1st round picks.

    Ah good to know, thanks OP

  103. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar: From “treasury”.

    If a first round pick doesn’t sign and re-enters the draft (or, if he’s older than 20, becomes a UFA), the team gets an additional pick in the draft – the same numerical number but in the 2nd round.

    WOW. So if FLA cannot sign a 1st round draft pick, they get another 2nd pick in another draft thereby bumping other teams down a slot. Man, I’d be pissed if FLA picked a player I wanted with that pick.

    ” If a team does not sign their first-round pick within two years, they will be awarded a compensatory pick in the Draft immediately following. The pick will be in the 2nd round, equal to the selection number of the unsigned player. All other teams\’ selections move back one spot.”

    Adam Mascherin was a 2nd round pick I believe, so this may not apply.

  104. jtblack says:

    That mock roster is brutal. Top 6 can score – we like.
    Bottom 6 – run and hide

    Could be another unpredictable year ahead. Hunters Death March will prove that. I pick the Oilers will finish between 84 – 104 points. Should be a safe enough zone.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex: WOW. So if FLA cannot sign a 1st round draft pick, they get another 2nd pick in another draft thereby bumping other teams down a slot. Man, I’d be pissed if FLA picked a player I wanted with that pick.

    ” If a team does not sign their first-round pick within two years, they will be awarded a compensatory pick in the Draft immediately following. The pick will be in the 2nd round, equal to the selection number of the unsigned player. All other teams\’ selections move back one spot.”

    Adam Mascherin was a 2nd round pick I believe, so this may not apply.

    There will be no compensatory pick for FLA if Mascherin does not sign and re-enters the draft – he was a 2nd round pick and compensation is only for unsigned first round picks.

  106. Alpine says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I wouldn’t trade a 10 for a 30 point player with an injury history

    He can score at evens. 2.04 P/60 over his career. Not sure if he’s being zoomed. Only 14 months older than Drai.

    10 sounds like a lot to give up, but how many forwards available at 10 will score like that within the next three seasons?

  107. geowal says:

    Clarkenstein: Oh come on that’s not a fair assumption at all. I was merely pointing out that he may have thought “if I can’t get a call up in a season that has gone to shit then to hell with it!”Who’s to say he might havecome up threw a shutout and they take a longer look. I hope for his sake he gets another chance somewhere someday.

    Check out Oilersnation, post up about his plans. He’s off to become a teacher and coach at a varsity school. As an undrafted college free agent, it’s not surprising he would have given some thought to a life outside pro hockey. I’m sure though as you hint, he evaluated his chances of an NhL gig and didn’t like them.

  108. Dustylegnd says:

    VOR,

    VOR:

    This is not even close to being accurate. This honor belongs to my friend, my mentor, the guy who turned me from a good scientist who dabbled in coaching into a professional coach and a way better scientist, a mad Hungarian named Gabor Simonyi. And it all happened in the little town of North Battleford, Saskatchewan.

    It only mentions all the research in passing but those scholarly articles he wrote mattered. Pioneers in the field of biomechanics, kinesiology, and sport science were deeply influenced by Gabor. Gideon Ariel was fond of quoting Gabor – “Biomechanics is the first marriage between the biological and physical sciences. It requires a mastery of anatomy, physiology, physics, and mathematics.” The number of people who have plagiarized that is astounding. Today you will find it, usually unattributed, in nearly every intro textbook in the field

    Vor, I came across a fascinating article on what determines an athletes time in the 40 yard dash and how specific exercises like hex bar deadlifts are the single most important exercise in improving ones sprinting potential….a fellow name Ryan Flaherty developed a formula based on max hex bar deadlift divided by the athletes body weight adjusted by some factor allows him to predict that athletes 40 yard time to within 1tenth of a second….

    https://www.mensjournal.com/sports/money-lift-how-top-flight-trainer-discovered-most-important-exercise-every-athlete/

    Do you know if a similar formula can be applied to hockey and said players top speed? I know McDavid has a freakish max hex bar deadlift and only weighs 190 ish….any insight you can provide would be fascinating

  109. digger50 says:

    You know how you play faster hockey? You know exactly where your linemates are. You know where they will be, how they play. Timing. You absolutely need that chemistry.

    Otherwise you need possession, get your head up, look for your man. This is slow.

    The Oilers have to let the lines develop if they want fast hockey.

    Death to the McBlender!!

  110. RonnieB says:

    Rondo:
    texmex,

    I think there is a chance Barrett Hayton may go in the top 10. Wouldn’t shock me if Montreal took Kotkaniemi at #3. Speaking of centres

    That would be quite a reach. Hayton is ranked 24th in Scott Wheeler’s year-end rankings and 23rd in Corey Pronman’s 74 man final list.

  111. Connoreah says:

    Does anyone else have a hard time reading predictions about where the Oilers will finish next year if they don’t do anything with their roster (and even if they do) given Vegas this year? Are we just kidding ourselves?

    I mean, nobody, nobody, nobody had Vegas with a winning record based on their roster in October, let alone destroying everyone all season and into the Stanley Cup final. Nobody. I can’t help but feel like Vegas just proved us all fools. Every one of us. Maybe we just enjoy the McDavid show and hope for the best?*

    *only half kidding

  112. John Chambers says:

    All things being equal I’d like to see a summer where we trade a 2nd round pick for a maturing winger like Nic Petan, Martin Frk, or Artturi Lehkonen. Hope that player can play 2LW alongside Drai and PoolParty.

    From there throw money at Mike Green, say 3 x $4.5M to play 2-3RD and 1PP. Structure the contract to make it bonus-laden and easy to move after 2 seasons.

    If there’s any money left sign a winger like Grabner, and trade away Kassian if that’s what it takes.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mike Green is not 35 years old and cannot sign a contract with performance bonuses.

    Sure, there could be signing bonuses but, for cap purposes, they simply get included in the AAV and the contract above, no matter how structured, would have a $4.5M cap hit which, of course, cannot be fit in.

    On the assumption that we cannot move Russell or Sekera this off-season, in order to sign Green to that contract, one of the core (6, 25, 77, 97, 93, 29) would need to be moved and I would definitely not do that to fit in an aging injury riddled PP specialist.

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    I’m hardwood only.

    Used to sell raw cut/graded/dried lumber, but have been in re-manufactured products only for 20 years now.

    I know softwoods, but not as intimately as I know hardwoods.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Severson is Faulk-lite.

    Best played with a very good LHD and not exposed to elite forwards too much.

    A useful player if used properly, but due to deficiencies in his game, don’t pay too much.

    Given he’s paid $4.16 for the next 5 years it’s a bet I don’t make.

    i’d bet on Barrie at $5.5 for the next two years and re-signing him at a reasonable number before I acquired Severson.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Also just a question: why is Chia’s stated position (never trust what a GM says), i.e. no big moves, the right position now, while last year after the poor start then many were clamouring for Chia to be fired because he did not do big moves, and the team sucked, and the results were terrible?Asking for a friend?

    Imma gonna need proof of people clamouring for big moves.

    Most wanted cover for Sekera, that’s not a big move.

    Pete’s mea culpa at the end of the year admitted he fucked that up.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Alpine: He can score at evens. 2.04 P/60 over his career. Not sure if he’s being zoomed. Only 14 months older than Drai.

    10 sounds like a lot to give up, but how many forwards available at 10 will score like that within the next three seasons?

    That’s a good number, curious why the Wings who were at the front of the pack with players like him don’t seem like him. The Wings aren’t the Oilers in how they have valued talent regardless of size etc.

    They are also desperate for scoring forwards. And everything else.

    Doesn’t add up somehow. I’m on phone so don’t want to look up stats on him. Perhaps he’s getting outscored, not enjoying the grunt part of the game.

  118. Scungilli Slushy says:

    digger50:
    You know how you play faster hockey? You know exactly where your linemates are. You know where they will be, how they play. Timing. You absolutely need that chemistry.

    Otherwise you need possession, get your head up, look for your man. This is slow.

    The Oilers have to let the lines develop if they want fast hockey.

    Death to the McBlender!!

    Agreed and they need to have systems that the players can play and allow for creativity. Then the players need to execute good decision making. If a play is there make it, if not play the system and work to create a high quality chance instead of making a low percentage or possession losing play.

    I’ve commented a few times this is what Viveiros does with his PP. I think hockey is too random, fast and fluid to try to be too technical, and I also feel the number of players that can execute complicated systems are few.

    Have a basic plan everyone can do, get everyone bought in and then load up with as much skill as you can that is playoff suitable and hope that skill makes the difference. It usually does outside of goalie voodoo.

  119. pts2pndr says:

    If any of the three top ranked right shot defensemen should become availabe,as in Bouchard Boquist or Dobson the numer 10 should be used to pick same. Given that the odds are good that that will happen it would be very foolish to trade such pick. First pairing right shot defensemen are the gold standard in that they are in great demand! Take a look at what it takes to aquire one. Even if after drafting one and the team need changes, say 3-4 years dowm the road this player would be far easier to move to fill whatever the team need. Given that on most years there is only 1 or 2 such players rated in the first round and the large disperity in availability of right shot players this need will continue for the forseeable future. Unless there is a franchise player available the default position should be a right shot D followed by a right shot center. I do not believe it is rocket science to follow the basics of supply and demand. He who has the supply of that in demand wins every time!

  120. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Severson is Faulk-lite.

    Best played with a very good LHD and not exposed to elite forwards too much.

    A useful player if used properly, but due to deficiencies in his game, don’t pay too much.

    Given he’s paid $4.16 for the next 5 years it’s a bet I don’t make.

    i’d bet on Barrie at $5.5 for the next two years and re-signing him at a reasonable number before I acquired Severson.

    I agree but the problem is cap. Next year when Sekera and Russel become moveable this kind of move would be ideal. Handing out no movement clauses to other than franchise players has to stop! I can not see how we can do much this year due to contracts. It is a case now of short term pain for long term gain or dig a deeper hole. I think it would be very high risk to move Klefbom and his contract to make this kind of deal but it might be the short term fix.

  121. John Chambers says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Signing Green at $4.5 would mean foregoing Grabner in LT’s model, and as I mentioned, also jettisoning Kassian.

    So it begs the question – who’d you rather have: Grabner and Kassian, or Green.

    For me it’s Green, for no other reason than PC addresses the PP defenseman without having to trade any core players.

  122. leadfarmer says:

    Well thankfully Chia cornered us in a bad cap situation that acquiring pp qb is very difficult.
    Wait a couple years and depending on who we draft we may have that position covered with Bear and whoever drops from these highly touted defensemen.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not positive LT’s model is going to reflect reality:

    1) I don’t think it accounts for Pouliot’s buyout which is over $1M

    2) It would be great to get Strome at $2.5M but he could be $3M

    3) It would be great to get Darnell at $3.45M but it simply may not happen, even on a bridge – he could be $1M higher

    4) Only accounting for $800K of Puljijarvi bonuses is risky

    At the end of the day, I am not sure there is room for a $3M player let alone a $4.5M player.

    Personally, I think 2RD is the main hole that needs to be filled but it can’t be done without disposing of a left shot D and I don’t dispose of 25 or 77 to make room for a 30 plus year old, regressing, injury-riddled d-man.

    Without getting rid of a left shot D, your model has Russell, at $4M as a healthy scratch (or, I guess, playing 3RD with Benning scratched).

  124. John Chambers says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Assuming you can make the dollars work, think Green as injury / Sekera insurance. Carrying 7 NHL D is as essential as carrying 2 NHL goalies. They’re two injuries away from Keegan Lowe and Eric Gryba as your third pair.

  125. Lowetide says:

    OP: I have Pouliot’s money in my model

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pink Socks,

    If Lucic doesn’t recover, the best mismatch in the Oilers’ favor is having him in the pressbox

    If Lucic doesn’t recover the best thing is LTIR with a back problem.

    Also,

    Lucic 5v5 scoring splits:

    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 2.02/60

    Jan1 – Apr 15: 0.63/60

    That’s such a giant disparity for someone who didn’t miss any time with injury that it begs to be explained any other way than “fell off the cliff”

    The cliff can be sharp, but that’s a razor’s edge.

    It can’t really be explained with “with and without McDavid” either.

    Lucic w/ McDavid: 1.43/60

    Lucic w/o McDavid: 1.20/60

    Either Lucic got an injury that he decided to play through or (and my $ is on the “or”) that he saw it was a lost cause around Christmas and just stopped giving a fuck.

    I hope he has more fucks to give and he isn’t hurt.

    I cheer for the Oilers so I hope for the best for all players and management.

    For the last 10 of 11 years though, it turns out like always.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’d have some time for Chris Wideman. I’d be interested to hear how he looks in Woodguy’s analyses. Seemed to be a borderline 2RD to me a couple seasons ago. Tore his hamstring last season. Could’ve sworn he was OTT’s second best D (low praise) when healthy.

    Leave it with me, will try to have a look.

    I don’t know the player well.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Leave it with me, will try to have a look.

    I don’t know the player well.

    Had a quick look.

    Looked mostly at last year as this year is a very small sample.

    Good results in a heavily sheltered role both years.

    Drives more results on the defensive than offensive side of the puck, but drives on both sides.

    Nothing spectacular as 3rd pairing Dmen can look good at the stuff I look at and the exceptional ones generally can move up to top 4.

    On straight results and little knowledge of the player I’d rate him below Benning.

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pink Socks,

    If Lucic doesn’t recover, the best mismatch in the Oilers’ favor is having him in the pressbox

    If Lucic doesn’t recover the best thing is LTIR with a back problem.

    Also,

    Lucic 5v5 scoring splits:

    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 2.02/60

    Jan1 – Apr 15: 0.63/60

    That’s such a giant disparity for someone who didn’t miss any time with injury that it begs to be explained any other way than “fell off the cliff”

    The cliff can be sharp, but that’s a razor’s edge.

    It can’t really be explained with “with and without McDavid” either.

    Lucic w/ McDavid: 1.43/60

    Lucic w/o McDavid: 1.20/60

    Either Lucic got an injury that he decided to play through or (and my $ is on the “or”) that he saw it was a lost cause around Christmas and just stopped giving a fuck.

    I hope he has more fucks to give and he isn’t hurt.

    I cheer for the Oilers so I hope for the best for all players and management.

    For the last 10 of 11 years though, it turns out like always.

    If that’s true he needs to fall on his sword.

  130. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50:
    You know how you play faster hockey? You know exactly where your linemates are. You know where they will be, how they play. Timing. You absolutely need that chemistry.

    Otherwise you need possession, get your head up, look for your man. This is slow.

    The Oilers have to let the lines develop if they want fast hockey.

    Death to the McBlender!!

    Playing fast is almost wholly determined by knowing what you are going to do with the puck before you get it and then executing it when you get the puck.

    Knowing where your line-mates *should* be and trusting them to be there is certainly a part of it.

    More than a couple players talked about McLellan’s blender in their post-season avails…..

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Assuming you can make the dollars work, think Green as injury / Sekera insurance. Carrying 7 NHL D is as essential as carrying 2 NHL goalies. They’re two injuries away from Keegan Lowe and Eric Gryba as your third pair.

    Of course, I agree with carrying 7 NHL d-men but I don’t think the money can work (at your suggested contract) without a material disposition (that I wouldn’t make to add your targeted player).

    I don’t know if he’s anythign more than a 3RD/PP guy and we need a 2RD, not a 3RD.

    Not to mention a 3 year terms for a 33 year old coming off spine surgery seems risky.

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    OP: I have Pouliot’s money in my model

    Hmmmm, I did the addition but in my head so I must have miscalculated.

    I hope your numbers are right but I’m skeptical on the Nurse number (and I have a feeling we might be waiting until well in to the summer for that contract to get finalized).

  133. VOR says:

    Dustylegnd:
    VOR,

    Vor, I came across a fascinating article on what determines an athletes time in the 40 yard dash and how specific exercises like hex bar deadlifts are the single most important exercise in improving ones sprinting potential….a fellow nameRyan Flaherty developed a formula based on max hex bar deadlift divided by the athletes body weight adjusted by some factor allows him to predict that athletes 40 yard time to within 1tenth of a second….

    https://www.mensjournal.com/sports/money-lift-how-top-flight-trainer-discovered-most-important-exercise-every-athlete/

    Do you know if a similar formula can be applied to hockey and said players top speed? I know McDavid has a freakish max hex bar deadlift and only weighs 190 ish….any insight you can provide would be fascinating

    Yes, it can and has. I think it is all largely proprietary. But a few years ago there were several articles (I’ll see if I can find the links) in which max single squat/kg of body weight was strongly predictive of maximum skating speed. Several companies now claim to have an algorithm though I think the technology has largely passed them by since a number of companies are now boxing measuring and getting a much better idea of all the dimensions of skating.

    Box measuring is shop talk for when all the skater or client knows is that we have this box and it is magically accessing their skating. Today we use sensors and pressure pads and multiple cameras and fancy computers but the software is still totally black box and a highly guarded trade secret. Though I will gladly tell you what we think we are measuring if anybody is interested.

  134. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jordan:
    Thoughts rolling around my head:

    If you could trade Lucic straight up for Phil Kessel, would you?Would the Oilers?Would the Pens?

    If Lucic doesn’t recover any speed/quickness/eyesight over the summer, how do you create a miss-match with him that doesn’t hurt the Oilers?Does he need to be on the 4th line to be able to keep up?Or is he playing himself out of the league?

    How can the Oilers add more speed off the wings if they keep the same players they had last year?

    Is there enough value in this draft to make trading one of our LHD prospects like Caleb Jones viable?Or is the draft class weak enough that it’s a poor bet?Does it depend on the return?

    The issue isn’t how physically fast our players are. They don’t play with speed. They take too long make passes, they pass too often east-west, they miss with their passes, they can’t receive a pass, they don’t anticipate the play, they react too slow. Ultimately, it’s a mental thing and confidence.

  135. VOR says:

    Dustylegnd,

    http://hh.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:637696/FULLTEXT01.pdf

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4541115/

    I could go on and on with conflicting papers from various sources.

    http://fscs.rampinteractive.com/collingwood/files/association/Relationships-to-skating-performance.pdf

    But what they share in common is that they all find 35 or 40 year off ice sprints to be predictive of on ice skating performances so if max hex bar dead lift predicts spring speed it should also predict skating speed (if A predicts B and B predicts C. A must predict C). The question is how well?

  136. Gerta Rauss says:

    VOR,

    Hey…are you the guy in the Dos Equis commercials..?

    edit*-stay thirsty my friend

  137. VOR says:

    Dustylegnd,

    These are the people who claim to have one of the algos for squat to max skating speed prediction.

    Though this is their early work on change of direction sprinting which you can see may be really important in ice hockey.

    https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/2077/30758/1/gupea_2077_30758_1.pdf

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Also,

    Lucic 5v5 scoring splits:

    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 2.02/60

    Jan1 – Apr 15: 0.63/60

    I remember it being pointed out that Lucic was surfing some 2nd assists in his 5v5 pts/60 early in the season.

    Its not that 2nd assists don’t count, its that 2nd assist rates don’t predict future 2nd assists rates very well. Basically there is a large pile of variance in them.

    That’s why Primary Pts/60 (goals and first assists only) get used. They predict future points better than straight Pts/60.

    That said.

    Last 5 years of Lucic’s Primary Points/60 and some break down of his time with EDM:

    Primary Pts/60
    13/14 1.56 (1st line rate)
    14/15 1.36 (2nd line rate)
    15/16 1.57 (1st line rate)
    16/17 1.00 (3rd line rate)
    17/18 0.76 (4th line rate)

    Last two years in EDM with and without 97:
    16/17
    With 97: 1.19
    Without 97: 0.87

    17/18
    With 97: 0.72
    Without 97: 0.78

    16/17 Season splits
    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 0.99
    Jan1 – Apr 15: 1.21

    17/18 Season splits
    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 1.35
    Jan 1 – Apr 15: 0.21

    That’s nuts.

  139. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m not positive LT’s model is going to reflect reality:

    1) I don’t think it accounts for Pouliot’s buyout which is over $1M

    2) It would be great to get Strome at $2.5M but he could be $3M

    3) It would be great to get Darnell at $3.45M but it simply may not happen, even on a bridge – he could be $1M higher

    4) Only accounting for $800K of Puljijarvi bonuses is risky

    At the end of the day, I am not sure there is room for a $3M player let alone a $4.5M player.

    Personally, I think 2RD is the main hole that needs to be filled but it can’t be done without disposing of a left shot D and I don’t dispose of 25 or 77 to make room for a 30 plus year old, regressing, injury-riddled d-man.

    Without getting rid of a left shot D, your model has Russell, at $4M as a healthy scratch (or, I guess, playing 3RD with Benning scratched).

    I would try my damndest to get McKeown from the Canes. He’s cheap and adds great depth. Offer Kassian and whatever sweetener is required, outside the first or second picks.

  140. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Pink Socks,

    If Lucic doesn’t recover, the best mismatch in the Oilers’ favor is having him in the pressbox

    If Lucic doesn’t recover the best thing is LTIR with a back problem.

    Also,

    Lucic 5v5 scoring splits:

    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 2.02/60

    Jan1 – Apr 15: 0.63/60

    That’s such a giant disparity for someone who didn’t miss any time with injury that it begs to be explained any other way than “fell off the cliff”

    The cliff can be sharp, but that’s a razor’s edge.

    It can’t really be explained with “with and without McDavid” either.

    Lucic w/ McDavid: 1.43/60

    Lucic w/o McDavid: 1.20/60

    Either Lucic got an injury that he decided to play through or (and my $ is on the “or”) that he saw it was a lost cause around Christmas and just stopped giving a fuck.

    I hope he has more fucks to give and he isn’t hurt.

    I cheer for the Oilers so I hope for the best for all players and management.

    For the last 10 of 11 years though, it turns out like always.

    His confidence fell off a cliff.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: His confidence fell off a cliff.

    He’s played 925 NHL games.

    I find it tough to believe that he suddenly doesn’t believe that he can play hockey.

  142. Oz says:

    jm363561,

    I like Strome- Lucic as a third line pair. I would put Kassian on their right wing though.
    New poster, and still learning the system, it would have been better to attach your original comment

  143. Biggus Dickus says:

    We are where we are. Can we just call it V3.0?

  144. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s played 925 NHL games.

    I find it tough to believe that he suddenly doesn’t believe that he can play hockey.

    Isn’t that basically what a slump is? Lack of confidence. It happens all the time and I think it gripped this team like a plague last year. Maybe it was medical. Maybe off ice stuff. Or maybe he suddenly lost whatever NHL level skill he had. I guess we find out this year.

  145. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965: His confidence fell off a cliff.

    – Re Lucic. There are a few possible reasons for his drop-off from 1st line production to brutal:

    1) He fell off a cliff and he’s done
    2) He was injured
    3) His shooting percentage which was around 3% post-Christmas was really really bad luck
    4) Personal issues
    5) Loss of confidence
    6) Trying to hard, with the burden of the contract
    7) He stopped trying, when the team started sucking
    8) He started playing with the worste linemates he’s had in many years

    – He was slowed down by an injury, his shooting percentage will revert, he will adapt this summer, and figure out how to play with the burden of his contract, their 3rd baby is healty, I know of some thing that are resolved that will help.

    – We will see: to think he’s going to score once every 78 shots going forward is crazy talk, IMO. He will refind his mojo. It was a tough year, and he bore a lot of the brunt.

    – Good candidate for a rebound: Kopitar, Brown style

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oz:
    jm363561,

    I like Strome- Lucic as a third line pair. I would put Kassian on their right wing though.
    New poster, and still learning the system, it would have been better to attach your original comment

    Hit the “quote” button instead of the “reply” button.

    Welcome.

  147. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Re Lucic.There are a few possible reasons for his drop-off from 1st line production to brutal:

    1) He fell off a cliff and he’s done
    2) He was injured
    3) His shooting percentage which was around 3% post-Christmas was really really bad luck
    4) Personal issues
    5) Loss of confidence
    6) Trying to hard, with the burden of the contract
    7) He stopped trying, when the team started sucking
    8) He started playing with the worste linemates he’s had in many years

    – He was slowed down by an injury, his shooting percentage will revert, he will adapt this summer, and figure out how to play with the burden of his contract, their 3rd baby is healty, I know of some thing that are resolved that will help.

    – We will see: to think he’s going to score once every 78 shots going forward is crazy talk, IMO.He will refind his mojo. It was a tough year, and he bore a lot of the brunt.

    – Good candidate for a rebound: Kopitar, Brown style

    Funny thing. It took Brown six years and a new coach to find his mojo. Don’t think we can wait that long for Looch. LOL. I think last year was the firs time Brown wasn’t taken in my hockey draft.

  148. Oz says:

    OriginalPouzar: Hit the “quote” button instead of the “reply” button.

    Welcome.

    Thanks

  149. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s played 925 NHL games.

    I find it tough to believe that he suddenly doesn’t believe that he can play hockey.

    But the thing is he CAN’T play hockey.

    Proud, 29 year old, prototype power forward, leader, signed to a huge deal. Can’t perform.

    Media, coach, GM, 10’s of thousands of fans of all tiers calling him washed up, talking out loud about his crippling contract.

    We don’t know what we don’t know, but this sort of thing could certainly fuck with your head and make anyone question themselves.

  150. --hudson-- says:

    Some news out of Beantown regarding Czarnik

    If they resign him, good chance someone else is shaking loose.

    Boston Bruins
    Boston Bruins
    @NHLBruins
    Sweeney on Paul Postma, Kenny Agostino, Brian Gionta and Austin Czarnik:

    “Postma, Agostino, Gionta will not be offered contracts…I think Austin [Czarnik] is intrigued by what may exist elsewhere. We certainly haven’t closed the door. We don’t think he has as well.”

  151. Jaxon says:

    Oz: Welcome.

    Thanks

    ANOTHER HINT. YOU CAN HIGHLIGHT THE ACTUAL PHRASE YOU WANT TO QUOTE BEFORE HITTING THE QUOTE BUTTON AND IT WILL ONLY QUOTE WHAT YOU HIGHLIGHTED.

    NOT YELLING, JUST DIDN’T REALIZE I HAD MY CAPS ON UNTIL AFTER TYPING.

  152. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s played 925 NHL games.

    I find it tough to believe that he suddenly doesn’t believe that he can play hockey.

    You ever heard of Chuck Knoblauch? That dude won a gold glove and spent the rest of his career eating nothing but yip salad.

  153. Oz says:

    Jaxon: NOT YELLING, JUST DIDN’T REALIZE I HAD MY CAPS ON UNTIL AFTER TYPING.

    Must be an age thing he he!!
    Way too late to restart that conversation.
    Thanks to you too
    I really enjoy this site with so many interesting comments, thoughts and particularly the personal stories

  154. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s nuts.

    If things don’t improve over the next two seasons maybe he’ll be happy to waive his NMC and be exposed to Seattle (or take him in a trade with some retained salary as a side deal to avoid other players?). He might like to be the experienced big guy on a roster like that and finish his career closer to his hometown of Vancouver. Vegas’ run has to make it slightly more appealing to go to an expansion club. although, if he doesn’t improve will an expansion team even want him?

  155. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    That’s nuts.

    Is it nuts enough to point towards an external cause – i.e. injury or psychological factor, potentially from something outside the game?

  156. ArmchairGM says:

    Alpine: He can score at evens. 2.04 P/60 over his career. Not sure if he’s being zoomed. Only 14 months older than Drai.

    10 sounds like a lot to give up, but how many forwards available at 10 will score like that within the next three seasons?

    If you’re drafting based on the “next three seasons”, you’re doing it wrong. Drafting is about the next 10 seasons, no the next three.

  157. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50:
    You know how you play faster hockey? You know exactly where your linemates are. You know where they will be, how they play. Timing. You absolutely need that chemistry.

    Otherwise you need possession, get your head up, look for your man. This is slow.

    The Oilers have to let the lines develop if they want fast hockey.

    Death to the McBlender!!

    Amen.

  158. ArmchairGM says:

    Dustylegnd:
    VOR,

    Vor, I came across a fascinating article on what determines an athletes time in the 40 yard dash and how specific exercises like hex bar deadlifts are the single most important exercise in improving ones sprinting potential….a fellow nameRyan Flaherty developed a formula based on max hex bar deadlift divided by the athletes body weight adjusted by some factor allows him to predict that athletes 40 yard time to within 1tenth of a second….

    https://www.mensjournal.com/sports/money-lift-how-top-flight-trainer-discovered-most-important-exercise-every-athlete/

    Do you know if a similar formula can be applied to hockey and said players top speed? I know McDavid has a freakish max hex bar deadlift and only weighs 190 ish….any insight you can provide would be fascinating

    Oh! Oh! I have an idea – send Lucic!

  159. Mr DeBakey says:

    JimmyV1965: Isn’t that basically what a slump is? Lack of confidence. It happens all the time and I think it gripped this team like a plague last year. Maybe it was medical. Maybe off ice stuff. Or maybe he suddenly lost whatever NHL level skill he had. I guess we find out this year.

    There was nothing sudden about it last year.
    Lucic’s 5v5 points and ranking among forwards last two years:
    166 Milan Lucic 23
    173 Milan Lucic 24
    He’s been done since he got here.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: Is it nuts enough to point towards an external cause – i.e. injury or psychological factor, potentially from something outside the game?

    I think so

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: Isn’t that basically what a slump is? Lack of confidence. It happens all the time and I think it gripped this team like a plague last year. Maybe it was medical. Maybe off ice stuff. Or maybe he suddenly lost whatever NHL level skill he had. I guess we find out this year.

    I guess it’s what you classify as a “slump”

    His drop off is so sharp I just think there *must* be something else.

    I’m not the burning bush though

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    to think he’s going to score once every 78 shots going forward is crazy talk

    I don’t think anyone has every said that on this blog, even Cassandra.

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    8) He started playing with the worste linemates he’s had in many years

    His primary points/60 with and without 97 were almost identical this year

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