Reasons to Believe

The Edmonton Oilers jumped into free agency early this year (April 14) by signing Ty Rattie to a one-year deal for $800,000. This is Rattie’s last chance Texaco and that will mean a great deal of determination by this player. It sets up a fascinating battle for playing time on the skill lines this winter. Can he hold off Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi? Historically, the answer is an overwhelming “no” but Todd McLellan’s decision has yet to be made.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! Try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your coffee. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

RATTIE VERSUS EBERLE

This is Eberle at 20, as a rookie, compared to Ty Rattie, at 24, and of course a small sample size for Rattie. He’s also on the McDavid line and frankly that’s winning the lottery. The Oilers need value contracts and Rattie could score 20+ if he can hang on the top line all year. His numbers (small sample size alert) with McDavid and Nuge show a lower possession number than most of 97’s lines but an increased goal share. The PDO suggests some regression will be in order:

  • Nuge-McDavid-Rattie: 129 minutes, 50.19 percent Corsi for, 65 percent goal share (13-7), 55 percent expected goal percentage, 109 PDO (Corsica)

I hope Rattie holds the job, it’s a great story. That said, it is wise to allow head over heart thinking in these things, with two first-round picks pushing, this story may be more novella than novel. Cheer like hell, prepare for the inevitable.

Pierre Lebrun (and Jim Matheson) established awhile back that the Edmonton Oilers would be in on OEL if he came available. I’m a big fan of this player, but not the price tag. This is likely to be a classic case of trading a quality future (Oscar Klefbom) with a great contract for a famous name with a massive deal that further complicates the cap. Love the player, don’t like the next contract. Oilers can’t afford another massive deal without offloading one of Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera or Kris Russell. Plus the Klefbom worry (trading an important part of the cluster after a downbeat season).

I wondered how this might break down, Oilers have two players with similar skills (Dillon Simpson) applying for the same job. Now, it’s possible to sign both, with Keegan Lowe as 7D and Simpson as a feature blue in Bakersfield (or vice versa), but I would guess we see a sail on Simpson signing after July 1. The deal above gives us our first shoe to drop in this area and increases the number of men signed to the 50-man list.

Lowe is a candidate for that No. 7D job, along with Ryan Stanton and Eric Gryba. Lowe showed well in a brief look-see at the end of the season, at this point I’d give him the edge to win the last spot. I wrote about Lowe  at The Athletic this spring:

  • Keegan Lowe resides in that place in pro hockey where teams value what he brings, but only to a point. There are probably 75-100 AHL defencemen who could safely fill end of the roster roles on NHL teams (short-term) at any given time. Keegan Lowe is one of them.

This is a valuable set of information, wise to hold on these totals for the draft and beyond. Some of the numbers posted here do not line up with previous totals. Have a look and see if your favorite prospect is now 6.02 instead of 5.11.

OILERS FA LIST (PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED)

 

  • G Nick Ellis RFA. Oilers have a full boat, but could deal Montoya and sign Ellis.
  • G Laurent Brossoit UFA. It’s a good bet he’s going to make like Lionel Richie and sail on down the line.
  • LD Darnell Nurse RFA. A bridge deal likely part of the conversation.
  • RD Matt Benning RFA. A shorter term seems likely, Benning has settled in as a solid defender.
  • LD Yohann Auvitu UFA. Reportedly heading back to Europe, there’s an NHL player here.
  • RD Mark Fayne UFA. He’s done with the Oilers, we’ll see if he catches on with another team.
  • LD Keegan Lowe UFA. I think he might return on a two-way deal.
  • LD Dillon Simpson UFA. Same spot as Lowe, likely room for only one.
  • LD Joey Laleggia UFA. He’ll sign with an NHL team that sees him as a defenseman. Maybe Vancouver.
  • LD Ben Betker RFA. Likely part of a substantial “Leftorium” haircut this summer.
  • RC Ryan Strome RFA. Several options for this player, including a trade.
  • RC Kyle Platzer RFA. I don’t think he’s shown enough in his entry deal.
  • LC Grayson Downing UFA. Quiet free agent signing.
  • L Mike Cammalleri UFA. I liked his contribution but the Oilers need more speed.
  • L Drake Caggiula RFA. Likely gets a short-term deal.
  • L Braden Christoffer RFA. Unlikely to return.
  • R Anton Slepyshev RFA. KHL rumors (and a trade) suggest he’s headed for the Motherland.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen RFA. Also the subject of Russia rumors.
  • R Patrick Russell. RFA. I think there’s a chance he gets another deal.
  • R Brian Ferlin UFA. Barely got on the ice.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

91 Responses to "Reasons to Believe"

  1. Westchester Oil says:

    Not sure why Chia felt a need to let Keegan Lowe use up a roster spot for two years. Would that have been the case if he wasn’t KLowe’s son?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    He doesn’t take up a spot on the 23 man roster, he takes up a spot on the 50 man contract list.

    From accounts he was a great mentor to the kids on Bakersfield last year and I’m guessing he will be he same this year. He also had a solid year.

    The Condors need some veterans and Lowe is solid in the role.

    If his last name wasn’t “Lowe” would anyone have an issue with this?

  3. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Dream draft outcome for me..somehow we get Wahlstrom and Merkley…to me Wahlstrom is the shooter we need…agree with Button on this one…would make a trade to get Wahlstrom!!!

  4. smellyglove says:

    Terrible incident in Quebec AAA hockey.

    To anyone who thinks non-white kids have it easy in sports in Canada, read this article. First Nations teams in tournament feel the wrath of racism from players, officials, spectators.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/quebec-city-hockey-racism-1.4685720

    I saw this shit all the time growing up in the prairies.

  5. tarvbc says:

    I’ve come grips that Lucic might not be the impact player ( 3 years prior) he once was mainly cause of the “new” NHL being much faster, but I still see a useful player there especialy if he pots around 20 next year.

    I think a quick, fast, highly skilled RW on a line with McD and Looch could work. McD has another player for transition and neutral zone play and Looch bangs away some scraps and we could all maybe be happy with Looch’s contract/production.

    Would Nuge on Drai’s wings with Pulj work?

    Lucic-Mcdavid-(Hemsky circa 2008/09) ?

    Meh… Chareilli

  6. Jaxon says:

    I’ve compiled a spreadsheet of Rankings, and what I consider Consensus lists and Mock drafts. It shows a pretty good picture of the range of each draft pick and how the draft might go in the mocks. I hope it’s okay to show these. Please do go to the website for each list and read their scouting reports and methodology.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

    A good way to see a player’s range is to simply -f for find and it will highlight every instance of that player.

    There are tabs at the bottom: Rankings, Consensus, Mocks.

    will add as new rankings, mocks and consensus lists become available. Let me know if there are any reputable sources I should add.

  7. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    Terrible incident in Quebec AAA hockey.

    To anyone who thinks non-white kids have it easy in sports in Canada, read this article. First Nations teams in tournament feel the wrath of racism from players, officials, spectators.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/quebec-city-hockey-racism-1.4685720

    I saw this shit all the time growing up in the prairies.

    There is no doubt that bias, bigotry and racism exist. It casts a shadow across all of us, from the terrible story here to the subtle things people say about who is clogging up the food court at the mall. Acknowledging it is the easy part, doing something is another. I have been trying to think of a way to help those kids who are killing themselves in Northern Saskatchewan where I grew up. I mean, why can’t we make this better? Sometimes I get mad at the government but what am I doing? Racism, isolation, seeing someone seeing you and making a judgement call your whole life. It’s a monster, but we have to do something about this because these are our children, in our communities, in the communities we grew up in. A very smart man once said ‘once you know, you KNOW’ and that means not doing something to help is a reflection of me.

    So, I want to do something. What does that look like?

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Can he hold off Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi? Historically, the answer is an overwhelming “no” but Todd McLellan’s decision has yet to be made.

    “Can Todd get out of Todd’s way and make the best decision? Stay tuned!!”

  9. Westchester Oil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    He doesn’t take up a spot on the 23 man roster, he takes up a spot on the 50 man contract list.

    From accounts he was a great mentor to the kids on Bakersfield last year and I’m guessing he will be he same this year. He also had a solid year.

    The Condors need some veterans and Lowe is solid in the role.

    If his last name wasn’t “Lowe” would anyone have an issue with this?

    I’m not doubting any of this. I, personally, given his somewhat limited upside and noting LT’s comments that there are 75-100 others like him, would have preferred that he was just given a one-year deal and then go from there.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Can he hold off Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi? Historically, the answer is an overwhelming “no” but Todd McLellan’s decision has yet to be made.

    “Can Todd get out of Todd’s way and make the best decision?Stay tuned!!”

    Yes. 🙂

  11. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide: https://thehockeywriters.com/2018-nhl-combine-heights-weights/ …

    I think it starts with speaking out, especially if you have a platform and a voice that people respect. And I give you kudos for doing just that. We are evolving and I see you come out on the correct side of issues on here all the time. With evolving I also, unfortunately, see a pushback from those unwilling to change and to see a better way forward. I also think we have to vote with these issues in mind, and spend with these issues in mind to help foster a better narrative of inclusivity. I’ve seen your site evolve as well, and admire you for making changes. We keep keeping on and look at ourselves in the mirror and ask if we are doing enough and speaking out enough.

  12. Mr DeBakey says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    Dream draft outcome for me..somehow we get Wahlstrom and Merkley…to me Wahlstrom is the shooter we need…agree with Button on this one…would make a trade to get Wahlstrom!!!

    If Magic happened and the Oilers drafted Wahlstrom in the first round, the smart thing to do would be a one-year contract in the Swedish League* for 18-19.
    Yes?

    *Or Czech, or Swiss, or Finnish.

  13. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, I was unable to follow up on a post earlier this week until now, but was curious as to your statement about keeping RNH being the right call for the org. Does that hold if the trade is RNH for Larsson instead of Hall for Larsson?

    RNH for Larsson would essentially have been a do-over of the 2011 draft and from that perspective seems more palatable than trading away an elite outscorer like Hall. We know the org was somewhat thinking along these lines in floating RNH for Seth Jones.

    To me, this was Chiarelli’s crucial error in the Hall trade. He was A) unwilling to add a sweetener to make either RNH or Eberle a viable centrepiece for a D deal, and B) he appraised Lucic as a direct replacement for Hall at LW.

    I think when we look back at the short sample size Hall had alongside McDavid, we’ll always wonder what if those two had found substantial chemistry in that audition? I think if they had, Hall would’ve been kept – sideburns or not.

  14. meanashell11 says:

    Lowetide: There is no doubt that bias, bigotry and racism exist. It casts a shadow across all of us, from the terrible story here to the subtle things people say about who is clogging up the food court at the mall. Acknowledging it is the easy part, doing something is another. I have been trying to think of a way to help those kids who are killing themselves in Northern Saskatchewan where I grew up. I mean, why can’t we make this better? Sometimes I get mad at the government but what am I doing? Racism, isolation, seeing someone seeing you and making a judgement call your whole life. It’s a monster, but we have to do something about this because these are our children, in our communities, in the communities we grew up in. A very smart man once said ‘once you know, you KNOW’ and that means not doing something to help is a reflection of me.

    So, I want to do something. What does that look like?

    I think the solution starts at home. Raise your kids right, speak up when you see something wrong, and make sure your kids do the same. Unfortunately, the world we live in does not help. It is the subtle undermining of societal “ideals” by leaders and especially politicians who use the “them” to divide and win elections regardless of the harm to society. By demonizing “others” to win, it makes it easy to promulgate and perpetuate hate and racism. So to turn this, it begins at home.

  15. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide,

    It’s not just indigenous kids killing or trying to kill themselves in the northern provinces. I speak from experience from one of my kids over the last two years. Trying times.

    The questions arise from mental health and social status. Imagine our consternation when a mental health task force was sent to the local reserve when we’ve been struggling along having to go to emerge because that’s all the support there is.

    We have support now. But it took my wife finding on of mine in the act of hanging themselves to get in the system. And trying to remember where the fuck you keep a sharp knife. Oh yeah, you locked them away because they cut too…

    Where you get sent after is, everyone there is only there because they failed in what they tried to do. The horse had long gone on a vacation by the time our stable door was locked.

    And apparently we’re the lucky ones. Which we are, as we’re all present and accounted for. We personally know of five families that are basically waiting for an attempt bad enough to get the support we now have.

    Russian roulette but all the chambers are loaded and you’re hoping for a misfire.

    My heart goes out to the indigenous people that feel that there’s only one way out. I know…..I see you.

    Now to my main point: Celebrating diversity is great, it should be done, but treating people differently reinforces differences and stereotypes. If this is a problem for our indigenous brothers and sisters, then it’s a problem for all of us.

    Don’t mean to be Captain Bringdown, please rusume with normal programming.

    And if any of you need support, contact LT.

    LT, i would consider it a favour if you would provide my email to anyone who needs it.

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    I had a disquieting conversation yesterday with a high school exchange student from Sweden who echoed many of the anti-immigration sentiments we’re hearing and seeing around the globe at this time. From Brexit to Trump’s wall, racism seems to be on the rise – despite what social media would have us believe that global connectedness is helping to at least mitigate this behaviour, if not eliminate it.

    Having lived abroad in countries where I was part of a white minority, I have felt what it’s like to be on the receiving end of this mentality and that’s my own personal brake against lapsing into racial stereotyping and judgement.

    Unfortunately I’m not sure there is a ready solution. Kids on the playground ostracize those who are different from them, and so the lesson learned very early on is conform to the will of the majority.

    It’s interesting to note that whenever a utopian society is depicted in science fiction, the common denominator seems to be the ‘universal translator’ that breaks down language barriers. To me that seems to be the crux of bringing races closer together.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, I was unable to follow up on a post earlier this week until now, but was curious as to your statement about keeping RNH being the right call for the org. Does that hold if the trade is RNH for Larsson instead of Hall for Larsson?

    RNH for Larsson would essentially have been a do-over of the 2011 draft and from that perspective seems more palatable than trading away an elite outscorer like Hall. We know the org was somewhat thinking along these lines in floating RNH for Seth Jones.

    To me, this was Chiarelli’s crucial error in the Hall trade. He was A) unwilling to add a sweetener to make either RNH or Eberle a viable centrepiece for a D deal, and B) he appraised Lucic as a direct replacement for Hall at LW.

    I think when we look back at the short sample size Hall had alongside McDavid, we’ll always wonder what if those two had found substantial chemistry in that audition? I think if they had, Hall would’ve been kept – sideburns or not.

    I didn’t think Nuge could deliver that kind of value, he was coming off an injury-riddled season. It would have been closer to even for sure.

  18. blainer says:

    I would love to get Wahlstrom but not at the expense of losing our 2nd pick this year or next. There is gonna be a good player drop to ten.

    Some team is going off the board in the top ten leaving us a great Rt shot D or forward. I expect the Finn to go early where he is a center and if he falls to us run up and make the pick.

    All the talk of the leftorium over the years is now starting to become the Rightorium .. especially if we get a Rt shot D with our 10th pick.

    My guess is Boqvist drops to us. I believe the Finn will go in the top six and expect Zadina to be this years Vilardi who dropped to 11 to the kings last year. Now I don’t think he falls that far but one never knows…

  19. blainer says:

    I know this may not popular but I do wonder if Klef is becoming Hamonic. Both have had to deal with injuries and Hamonic has had two down years in a row now.

    Maybe WG could compare the two players and pass along some numbers but my gut wonders what Klef will be after this last season. I know he was injured but I have serious doubts about this player returning to form. He seemed really timid at times and I guess and hope that was because of injury.

    I can defiantly see him traded at or around the draft and see Nurse’s contract coming in around the Klef number.

    I am probably way off on this but it’s just a gut feeling. Man a functioning crystal ball would be great if only to figure out this player. Is he Hamonic or will he be more like Lindholm. Gonna be another interesting off season me thinks..

  20. Bank Shot says:

    Westchester Oil: I’m not doubting any of this. I, personally, given his somewhat limited upside and noting LT’s comments that there are 75-100 others like him, would have preferred that he was just given a one-year deal and then go from there.

    If Keegan’s name wasn’t Lowe he would likely be playing in Europe this season.

    Carolina dumped him. Montreal didn’t give him a qualifying offer.

    This is Will Acton all over again.

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, I was unable to follow up on a post earlier this week until now, but was curious as to your statement about keeping RNH being the right call for the org. Does that hold if the trade is RNH for Larsson instead of Hall for Larsson?

    RNH for Larsson would essentially have been a do-over of the 2011 draft and from that perspective seems more palatable than trading away an elite outscorer like Hall. We know the org was somewhat thinking along these lines in floating RNH for Seth Jones.

    To me, this was Chiarelli’s crucial error in the Hall trade. He was A) unwilling to add a sweetener to make either RNH or Eberle a viable centrepiece for a D deal, and B) he appraised Lucic as a direct replacement for Hall at LW.

    I think when we look back at the short sample size Hall had alongside McDavid, we’ll always wonder what if those two had found substantial chemistry in that audition? I think if they had, Hall would’ve been kept – sideburns or not.

    Hall and McDavid played together at the World Championships and they were by far the best pairing in the tournament. They dragged Corey Perry around, who was basically a pylon. They probably played more time together in that tournament than they ever did in the NHL.

  22. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, I was unable to follow up on a post earlier this week until now, but was curious as to your statement about keeping RNH being the right call for the org. Does that hold if the trade is RNH for Larsson instead of Hall for Larsson?

    RNH for Larsson would essentially have been a do-over of the 2011 draft and from that perspective seems more palatable than trading away an elite outscorer like Hall. We know the org was somewhat thinking along these lines in floating RNH for Seth Jones.

    To me, this was Chiarelli’s crucial error in the Hall trade. He was A) unwilling to add a sweetener to make either RNH or Eberle a viable centrepiece for a D deal, and B) he appraised Lucic as a direct replacement for Hall at LW.

    I think when we look back at the short sample size Hall had alongside McDavid, we’ll always wonder what if those two had found substantial chemistry in that audition? I think if they had, Hall would’ve been kept – sideburns or not.

    I have no way of knowing but remain convinced Hall was going to be traded regardless. RD was the key need.

    It was because sideburns that the OBC wasn’t willing to hire a barber for or to learn about modern hair styles. We do know from published items that he had been on the trade block during the season (Rishaug I think) who said any GM surprised he was dealt wasn’t paying attention.

    There were mole hills popping up everywhere; Hall’s own later admission around engaging with coaches, a twitter go at the captain, getting into it with Anderson socially, the water bottle, and mostly not getting on board with any of the coaches that rolled through with adhering to systems. I also thought Hall’s year end pressure where he used the word’s ‘stink of the season’ or the like was not a wise decision on his part if he wanted to stay given everything else.

    The silliest thing is that Renney wanted to reign the youth in and was told to play them per Renney, who ended up soon fired. Dysfunction.

    Dysfunctional organizations take such things and make mountains to their own detriment, repeatedly. The org narrative around character underlies all of this. What wins hockey games is ability and effort, not character. Unless a player is a complete schmuck it is hard to get better dumping players over this stuff unless the team is extremely good at getting value out of trades, and Edmonton hasn’t been.

    Larsson at the time of the deal was not considered a top end first pair D. Closer to a bust for his draft position. He had a sullied rep around the league, he has improved it since the trade. Eberle was enough value to the Devils as payment I firmly believe with years of solid consistent scoring under his belt, but Eberle is a nice guy (character) so the decision was made. Nuge is a nice guy and the best of the three as an overall player at the time.

    Eberle’s playoff performance after a wobbly season then sealed his fate. Also, at the time Leon was not ready to play full time C in the NHL and Connor a rookie so trading Nuge wasn’t really an option.

    Stupid stupid stupid. I believe PC likely wanted the Eberle trade as his playoff performance was a long way from Bruin hockey. I would not at all be surprised if Hall being dealt was a mandate from the Summits of the day after they turned on him, and we know from reports not everyone was on board with moving Hall. I’d love to know who those people were.

    It was also a mistake I think by Hall having McDavid live with him given the tensions were in place already, and managers would very likely not have been comfortable with that, golden child living with problem child. It may have been the nail in the coffin, I thought at the time that arrangement would likely not end well.

    Sorry to rehash but it came up again.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    blainer:
    I know this may not popular but I do wonder if Klef is becoming Hamonic. Both have had to deal with injuries and Hamonic has had two down years in a row now.

    Maybe WG could compare the two players and pass along some numbers but my gut wonders what Klef will be after this last season. I know he was injured but I have serious doubts about this player returning to form. He seemed really timid at times and I guess and hope that was because of injury.

    I can defiantly see him traded at or around the draft and see Nurse’s contract coming in around the Klef number.

    I am probably way off on this but it’s just a gut feeling. Man a functioning crystal ball would be great if only to figure out this player. Is he Hamonic or will he be more like Lindholm. Gonna be another interesting off season me thinks..

    I think Klefbom has more skill than Hamonic and skates far better, but he certainly hasn’t found consistency yet particularly defensively.

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Lowetide,

    It’s not just indigenous kids killing or trying to kill themselves in the northern provinces. I speak from experience from one of my kids over the last two years. Trying times.

    The questions arise from mental health and social status. Imagine our consternation when a mental health task force was sent to the local reserve when we’ve been struggling along having to go to emerge because that’s all the support there is.

    We have support now. But it took my wife finding on of mine in the act of hanging themselves to get in the system. And trying to remember where the fuck you keep a sharp knife. Oh yeah, you locked them away because they cut too…

    Where you get sent after is, everyone there is only there because they failed in what they tried to do. The horse had long gone on a vacation by the time our stable door was locked.

    And apparently we’re the lucky ones. Which we are, as we’re all present and accounted for. We personally know of five families that are basically waiting for an attempt bad enough to get the support we now have.

    Russian roulette but all the chambers are loaded and you’re hoping for a misfire.

    My heart goes out to the indigenous people that feel that there’s only one way out. I know…..I see you.

    Now to my main point: Celebrating diversity is great, it should be done, but treating people differently reinforces differences and stereotypes. If this is a problem for our indigenous brothers and sisters, then it’s a problem for all of us.

    Don’t mean to be Captain Bringdown, please rusume with normal programming.

    And if any of you need support, contact LT.

    LT, i would consider it a favour if you would provide my email to anyone who needs it.

    Sorry to read this Jethro.

  25. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: There is no doubt that bias, bigotry and racism exist. It casts a shadow across all of us, from the terrible story here to the subtle things people say about who is clogging up the food court at the mall. Acknowledging it is the easy part, doing something is another. I have been trying to think of a way to help those kids who are killing themselves in Northern Saskatchewan where I grew up. I mean, why can’t we make this better? Sometimes I get mad at the government but what am I doing? Racism, isolation, seeing someone seeing you and making a judgement call your whole life. It’s a monster, but we have to do something about this because these are our children, in our communities, in the communities we grew up in. A very smart man once said ‘once you know, you KNOW’ and that means not doing something to help is a reflection of me.

    So, I want to do something. What does that look like?

    Very REAL issue. Sad and complicated. In Canada, its First Nations on “Reserves”. In the USA it is minorities in “Ghetto’s”.

    Have you been to the United Center in Chicago? Terrible neighborhood.

    IMHO opinion the Guvernments do play the largest role in the problem. Whether north or south of the border, ghetttos aand reserves have very little government investment on the economic side. Young kid and Adults cannot find meaningful work. Employment is the #1 factor in reducing crime, drugs etc. The “White” political powers that be, do very little to address the situation. Throwing money at Chiefs does nothing. Cracking down on crime does little. They need jobs and opportunities.

    So i believe the overall government leads to an environment where opression is real. Racism is alive and well as that article points out. I live 45 minutes from a reserve and there is A LOT of racism in my city.

    As for Not helping kids, maybe you need to dig a little deeper and see what can be done (besides throwing $$ to the higher ups). Be a voice and Leader in your workplace and your family.

    Its great to see you have a conscience and are aware.

  26. Oilman99 says:

    Rattie demonstrated that he was determined to do what it takes to stay in the NHL when he got the chance. He has matured,has the skill, and I would bet that he works like hell to improve on his weakness’s this summer ensure he stays with the big club this fall. Yammy looks too fragile, and JP needs to become more determined,and mature to knock the Rat Man out of his position.

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    Replacing Oscar Klefbom with Oliver Ekman-Larsson is an absolutely easy decision. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson are a good #1 Pairing and might never be much more. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Adam Larsson are/will continue to be a great #1 Pairing and will remain so for a long time.

    About the time an extention would kick in, a limited trade market opens for Andrej Sekera and Kris Russell, so money/Cap shouldn’t be an issue. By that time Darnell Nurse and Matthew Benning should be ready for 2nd Pairing. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be the core of the team long term. Anyone and everyone else gets traded when they start costing too much.

  28. Oilman99 says:

    Westchester Oil: I’m not doubting any of this. I, personally, given his somewhat limited upside and noting LT’s comments that there are 75-100 others like him, would have preferred that he was just given a one-year deal and then go from there.

    The contract is great value for defensive depth that you can never have enough of come playoff time.

  29. JimmyV1965 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Replacing Oscar Klefbom with Oliver Ekman-Larsson is an absolutely easy decision.Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson are a good #1 Pairing and might never be much more.Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Adam Larsson are/will continue to be a great #1 Pairing and will remain so for a long time.

    About the time an extention would kick in, a limited trade market opens for Andrej Sekera and Kris Russell, so money/Cap shouldn’t be an issue.By that time Darnell Nurse and Matthew Benning should be ready for 2nd Pairing.Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be the core of the team long term.Anyone and everyone else gets traded when they start costing too much.

    The decision becomes a little less certain if the deal is Klef and Drai for OEL.

  30. blainer says:

    LT,

    Just curious.. Is there a draft year out there that you would compare this one to. It kinda reminds me a little of 2012 with a lot of D going in the the top ten but kinda of interested in how you and others would compare this draft year.

  31. Lowetide says:

    blainer:
    LT,

    Just curious.. Is there a draft year out there that you would compare this one to. It kinda reminds me a little of 2012 with a lot ofD going in the the top ten but kinda of interested in how you and others would compare this draft year.

    It reminds me most of 2002, where people talked about a specific group at the top and then a big falloff to mediocre. In that year (2002), the big falloff was in actuality an impressive group that hadn’t emerged yet. So there was great value in that draft and I expect we’ll see the same in this one.

  32. Professor Q says:

    smellyglove:
    Terrible incident in Quebec AAA hockey.

    To anyone who thinks non-white kids have it easy in sports in Canada, read this article. First Nations teams in tournament feel the wrath of racism from players, officials, spectators.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/quebec-city-hockey-racism-1.4685720

    I saw this shit all the time growing up in the prairies.

    Indeed. It’s sad to see it happen and I feel for those kids, and unfortunately wr all know that it is still around in many aspects of society.

    I remember all too well how our teams would have the subtle racism and pompous “air of superiority” attitudes towards the First Nations teams (coaches, parents, and of course trickled down to us the players).

    The sense that the coaches and parents looked down upon those teams and players, that the refs favoured them for whateber reason for whatever happened, that the players were older than they claimed and took advantage of it, that you definitely didn’t want to lose to *them*, was strong.

    And they, and us, were just kids. Kids who shouldn’t have had to deal with that. Even if we felt that atmosphere and were aware of it we were all affected by it and took note in various ways. Affects your views growing up, and not in the best ways.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: They need jobs and opportunities.

    Same issue in any culture. Bored youth with what they see as limited opportunity does not lead to good places.

    Governments are in a tough place now because they have abrogated much of their former responsibilities to corporations who not surprisingly have ended up with most of the money, preached to the people about it since 1980, and now would face a huge backlash if they tried to correct the balance.

    But enough about that sad stuff.

  34. Woogie63 says:

    I really don’t want to start the season with Hopkins (can’t play the whole season, 25 goal scorer) and Rattie (a career AHL player) on Conmor’s wing . Then we are not sure who will play with Draisaitl?.

    To my way of thinking Draisaitl’s defensive issues and more poor line changes need Hopkins more than McDavid.

  35. digger50 says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I find that Hall tells the truth. And to some, the truth hurts.

  36. digger50 says:

    Woogie63:
    I really don’t want to start the season with Hopkins (can’t play the whole season, 25 goal scorer) and Rattie (a career AHL player) on Conmor’s wing .Then we are not sure who will play with Draisaitl?.

    To my way of thinking Draisaitl’s defensive issues and more poor line changes need Hopkins more than McDavid.

    Nuge. – Leon. – Jessie

    That would be an awesome line

  37. trencan says:

    blainer:
    LT,

    Just curious.. Is there a draft year out there that you would compare this one to. It kinda reminds me a little of 2012 with a lot ofD going in the the top ten but kinda of interested in how you and others would compare this draft year.

    blainer,

    2008

    Doughty Dahlin
    Karlsson Boqvist
    Bogosian Bouchard
    Stamkos Svechnikov
    edit: Hughes Pietrangelo

    Just my opinion…

  38. 106 and 106 says:

    Isn’t Iiro the hero gone?

    TSN, Sportsnet and Cult of Hockey reporting on it in late April?

    https://www.tsn.ca/report-oilers-pakarinen-signs-in-khl-1.1066205

  39. Lowetide says:

    106 and 106:
    Isn’t Iiro the hero gone?

    TSN, Sportsnet and Cult of Hockey reporting on it in late April?

    https://www.tsn.ca/report-oilers-pakarinen-signs-in-khl-1.1066205

    Slepyshev, Auvitu and Pakarinen are rumored but I haven’t seen anything official. It’s not on elite prospects (last I checked) or capfriendly. So, we know but it isn’t official.

  40. deardylan says:

    Lowetide,

    There is no doubt that bias, bigotry and racism exist. It casts a shadow across all of us, from the terrible story here to the subtle things people say about who is clogging up the food court at the mall. Acknowledging it is the easy part, doing something is another. I have been trying to think of a way to help those kids who are killing themselves in Northern Saskatchewan where I grew up. I mean, why can’t we make this better? Sometimes I get mad at the government but what am I doing? Racism, isolation, seeing someone seeing you and making a judgement call your whole life. It’s a monster, but we have to do something about this because these are our children, in our communities, in the communities we grew up in. A very smart man once said ‘once you know, you KNOW’ and that means not doing something to help is a reflection of me.
    So, I want to do something. What does that look like?
    ===

    Lowetide,

    I am just back to Canada after about 20 years away. In my travels I discovered many sided stories about history that I never read about from my textbooks.

    When I asked many questions I discovered the deeper painful history of Hawaii, Australia, South East Asia, Hong Kong and many more (not just the one they tell us). This pain is still there and you can feel it.

    I asked a similar question what can I do?

    I also wondered what about the history behind the history in Canada.

    So I started to do my research starting with the word “Canada.”

    What does the word Canada mean? What is the origin of it?

    I have no clue so I researched it and was so surprised…

    The officers wondered why people kept referring to something that sounded like Kanata.

    It meant “Home”

    Canada = Our Home

    Word origin of ‘Canada’
    a word for village in an extinct (before 1600) Iroquoian language of the lower St. Lawrence River valley

    Extinct? Our country’s name comes from extinct language?

    Now what are the words of our anthem? Study them closely? Hmmm.

    Here is the unofficial bilingual version in English and French from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_Canada

    O Canada!
    Our home and native land!
    True patriot love in all thy sons command.
    Car ton bras sait porter l’épée,
    Il sait porter la croix!
    Ton histoire est une épopée
    Des plus brillants exploits.
    God keep our land glorious and free!
    O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.
    O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

    Looked up many native names that our Provinces/towns/cities are called like “Toronto” and “Ontario” and Manitoba” What do they mean? What do they really mean?

    Then circled back to today when I recently met a few Native activists asking to explain to me since I have been away from Canada for 20 years and need to understand. When I was in Australia I talked to people why they want to abolish the founding of Australia day. When I was in Hawaii I wondered where where did all the Hawaiians go. When I was at Ryerson University I wondered why they want to get rid of his statue.

    Then went to look up sports teams with Native names. Then who owned those teams. Then went back to ancestors going back to the founders of our dominion. Who set up our government, our residential schools. Then followed that trail to treaties. The first settlers, the first whiteman. And then even further…which tribe fought which tribe and how they migrated to find land. Back to the creation stories.

    Where To Start?

    Research into your own ancestors and the town your lived and find the hidden stories including the one in your DNA tests in your family tree.

    As a prominent journalist/reporter start with your own research, interview these players, kids and parents in hockey, in your neighbourhood to start off with and go from there. Just like the Japanese internment camps and your neighbour that had to leave his land/house there is a story behind the story behind the story. Why don’t we ask what really happened to this man. Usually there are clues to discover and to reveal.

    Fear -> What We Don’t Know -> Scared of What People Don’t Know -> Irrational Behaviour (Like Racism)

    Research > Awareness > Bring More Awareness to Others > Less Fear > More Connection With Those We Don’t Know -> Friendships -> Less Racism.

    In most cases this awareness will be a little painful especially as people discover their family roots are connected to this. Usually it is men. Usually it is colonial men. Usually it is military men. Usually it was protecting our family/tribe from the other ones. If we go back are ancestors are all part of it.

    And the kids have to know the truth from many different perspectives. And not continue to hurt others. Starts with them. Starts with us.

    I thought I was the oppressed until recently since I was raised on rebel songs from Wales (where my dad is from) and Ireland (my mom.)

    My family did a DNA test recently and we found DNA traces from West Indies (African origin) and also Indian (from India) and a whole lot of Viking and English.

    So my family needs to know more about this and I plan to bring my kids to those countries to learn from all ancestors and the good and the bad connected to it. So it starts with me, my kids, my tribe and sharing my story with others.

    You can do alot!

  41. Alpine says:

    trencan: blainer,

    2008

    Doughty Dahlin
    Karlsson Boqvist
    Bogosian Bouchard
    Stamkos Svechnikov
    edit: Hughes Pietrangelo

    Just my opinion…

    Hmmm…
    Zadina – Boedker
    Dobson – Myers
    Veleno – Bailey
    Kotkaniemi – Hodgson
    Tkachuk – Wilson
    Farabee – Boychuk

  42. blainer says:

    trencan: blainer,

    2008

    Doughty Dahlin
    Karlsson Boqvist
    Bogosian Bouchard
    Stamkos Svechnikov
    edit: Hughes Pietrangelo

    Just my opinion…

    That 2008 draft was a decent draft.

    The 2002 draft looked kinda weak to me.

    The 2012 looks the most comparable to me based on the fact I think at least 5 D will be drafted in the top ten.

    While I would prefer a RT shot D I would be very happy if Hughes drops to us. Doubt that happens and if we go by Bob Mac’s draft list which is usually very close to what happens in the first round we could end up with the choice between Smith , Kotkaneimi who I really believe will be gone before we pick, and Farabee who would be my next forward choice.

    I don’t think they draft Merkley as I think he is years away but would not be upset with this pick either.

    Would not be surprised if the Habs pick Kotkaneimi.. I also believe he will be the only one to move into the top nine when Bob Mac’s final list comes out.

    I really don’t know how this draft will play out but my gut says It won’t be a strong draft.

  43. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Guessing who could be available #10.

    Kotkaniemi could go #3 #6 #8 or #10
    Boqvist
    Dobson
    Hayton

  44. blainer says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    Guessingwho could be available #10.

    Kotkaniemi could go #3 #6 #8 or #10
    Boqvist
    Dobson
    Hayton

    Dobson is actually who I am really hoping for but doubt that happens after the memorial cup he just had. I expect him to go in the top 5 and most likely the 2nd D to get picked.

    I do think we will end up with a great prospect and would be very careful about trading up as IMO this is a draft where the number 10 pick could very possibly be the best player in a re-draft in few years.

    The draft really can be a crap shoot some years and this could be one of those years.. keep the 10th pick unless a deal arises that you can’t lose on otherwise just take BPA regardless of position.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Oilers sure do need value contracts, both now and in the future, its imperative for our cap structure (and a main reason why the 10th overall should only be traded for a more veteran player with high caution).

    As far as current players, who may be able to provide a value contract? I think Khaira will provide a value contract – he’s at $675K so, even if he plays mostly 4th line at evens and PK’s, if he can pop in 10-12 goals, that’s a value contract.

    With that said, I would like to see him get a solid audition at a middle 6 left wing spot because, if he can provide the offence in such a role, then his contract become a true value contract.

    Finding a veteran 4C for apx $1M should not be tough.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    On OEL, I also love the player but not the cost (acquisition cost plus contract).

    With that said, OEL would be a difference maker – he is on another level from any of our d-men and any d-man we’ve had since Pronger (Vishnovsky notwithstanding).

    Its a tough deal to make because Oscar plus the 10th (for example) doesn’t clear enough cap space. Actually, it does for next season as OEL’s new deal would not kick in until 2019/20.

    As much as I’d love me some OEL, I don’t think I’m on board with this type of trade – we have some serious cost-certainty and potential high value contracts in our top 4 and I’m hugely fine with the following going forward:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/XXXXX

    I don’t know who that XXX is though. Is there an internal option? Bear may be it but he may never be able to handle top 4 minutes at ES. Berglund? At least a year away from the NHL, likely 2 if he ever makes the NHL.

    Maybe its Noah Dobson or Bode Wilde – years away.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    With that said, if ARI re-signs OEL, I don’t see them trading him.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    Dream draft outcome for me..somehow we get Wahlstrom and Merkley…to me Wahlstrom is the shooter we need…agree with Button on this one…would make a trade to get Wahlstrom!!!

    Whalstrom would be fantastic – his skill set is something we don’t have – we simply haven’t had a winger with a plus shot for quite a while. A winger that can beat a goalie clean from distance.

    His numbers, shoot stats, etc. for the USDT are right up with those of Matthews, Eichel, Conner, etc.

    Can’t see him slipping to 10 – he’ll likely go somewhere from 5-8.

    What would be the cost to move up 2-3 spots?

  49. Rube Foster says:

    LT,

    I believe I speak for all of us when I say – You’re a good man.

    You’ve asked what you can do regarding the awful and shameful incidents that the Elite First Nations Bantam Hockey team experienced in the recent tournament in Quebec…

    You have a unique platform with this incredible Blog you have created and your wonderful Radio show. Both of these mediums speak to a broad and diverse audience.

    I would respectfully recommend that you have your production staff from your radio show reach out to Mr. Neeposh the Manager of the Elite First Nations Hockey Team and ask him to be a guest for a segment on your show. Simply have Mr. Neeposh share the story of their team’s experience and let him know that there are people across the country of Canada that support his team and feel horrible for their experience.

    Provide the Elite First Nations an opportunity to share their story and experience and let them share how that experience made them feel.

    Offer the Elite First Nations Hockey team yours and ours sincerest empathy and remorse.

    These are small steps towards solving a huge problem and in my opinion could help to help create a positive discourse and a start to healing some significant wounds.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    I’ve compiled a spreadsheet of Rankings, and what I consider Consensus lists and Mock drafts. It shows a pretty good picture of the range of each draft pick and how the draft might go in the mocks. I hope it’s okay to show these. Please do go to the website for each list and read their scouting reports and methodology.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

    A good way to see a player’s range is to simply -ffor find and it will highlight every instance of that player.

    There are tabs at the bottom: Rankings, Consensus, Mocks.

    will add as new rankings, mocks and consensus lists become available. Let me know if there are any reputable sources I should add.

    This is AWESOME – thank you.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    digger50:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    I find that Hall tells the truth. And to some, the truth hurts.

    Nail on head. Didn’t play the game (off the ice) the OBC wanted. That’s when sideburns started growing I imagine. Politics.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Hall and McDavid played together at the World Championships and they were by far the best pairing in the tournament. They dragged Corey Perry around, who was basically a pylon. They probably played more time together in that tournament than they ever did in the NHL.

    This isn’t quite right – Cory Perry wasn’t on the team. I watched alot of this tournament and McDavid and Nuge generally had Jaden Schwartz and Brayden Schenn on the right wing.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Replacing Oscar Klefbom with Oliver Ekman-Larsson is an absolutely easy decision.Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson are a good #1 Pairing and might never be much more.Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Adam Larsson are/will continue to be a great #1 Pairing and will remain so for a long time.

    About the time an extention would kick in, a limited trade market opens for Andrej Sekera and Kris Russell, so money/Cap shouldn’t be an issue.By that time Darnell Nurse and Matthew Benning should be ready for 2nd Pairing.Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be the core of the team long term.Anyone and everyone else gets traded when they start costing too much.

    I believe there is no trade market for Kris Russell – he has a NMC that will be in force when the expansion draft is scheduled to occur.

    Do we really think a general manager would acquire that contract knowing they have zero choice but to use up one of three d-men protected spots (or one of the eight spots if they need to go that route)?

    The one other thing you aren’t factoring in is acquisition cost – in addition to Klefbom, what other assets do we have to give up for OEL and his $8.5M X 8 contract?

    Don’t get me wrong, you are right, switching Klefbom for OEL, in isolation, is easy and OEL/Larsson would be magnificent for the next 5-7 years, however, its a bit more complicated than that.

    McDavid – $12.5M
    Drai – $8.5M
    OEL – $8.5M

    All fine contracts but that cap space sure gets eaten up quickly.

    I do salivate at OEL/Larsson though – I may be prejudiced by the small sample size of the WHC.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: The decision becomes a little less certain if the deal is Klef and Drai for OEL.

    Well that’s a silly scenario though and not something the Oilers should (or would) entertain.

    The acquisition cost for OEL would certainly be dear but, given the ages of the two players, that’s a non-starter.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: Nuge. –Leon.–Jessie

    That would be an awesome line

    Leon/Jesse is the obvious 2nd pair (at least to me).

    Perhaps Strome/Khaira is the third pair.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Slepyshev, Auvitu and Pakarinen are rumored but I haven’t seen anything official. It’s not on elite prospects (last I checked) or capfriendly. So, we know but it isn’t official.

    I don’t think they can officially sign in the KHL for a little while yet – can’t remember what the exact date is.

  57. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: This isn’t quite right – Cory Perry wasn’t on the team. I watched alot of this tournament and McDavid and Nuge generally hadJaden Schwartz and Brayden Schenn on the right wing.

    This was a couple years back. RNH wasn’t on the team. Hall and McDavid were the top line. I’m sure Perry was their RW.

  58. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Well that’s a silly scenario though and not something the Oilers should (or would) entertain.

    The acquisition cost for OEL would certainly be dear but, given the ages of the two players, that’s a non-starter.

    I thought this was the speculation a couple weeks ago. Klef and Drai for OEL.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Appreciate all of the input in this thread, and I thank everyone for taking time to post on a difficult and sensitive subject without being abusive to one another. Appreciate the words.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: This was a couple years back. RNH wasn’t on the team. Hall and McDavid were the top line. I’m sure Perrywas their RW.

    Sorry, I misread your post and thought you were talking about this year and who was playing with Nuge and McDavid.

    Apologies.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I thought this was the speculation a couple weeks ago. Klef and Drai for OEL.

    Well, yes, it was out there on social media but not from any reliable source about something that has been talked about or could happen. There is ALOT of crap out there on social media – me or you could likely start speculation about a similarly silly “rumor”.

  62. Ari says:

    DeeplyConcerned,
    Thank you. I appreciate this.

  63. Ari says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It doesn’t hurt to shoot for the stars when dealing with Chia. M

  64. Lowetide says:

    I have deleted two posts, apologies to those I deleted but I wanted to finish the conversation somewhere and N64’s helpful post (now deleted, but extremely helpful to me) seems a good place. I hope everyone feels they had a fair shake, and we may discuss this again.

    As this is a hockey blog, I ask you to respect the population here and return to our regular conversation..

  65. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/XXXXX

    I don’t know who that XXX is though.Is there an internal option? Bear may be it but he may never be able to handle top 4 minutes at ES.Berglund? At least a year away from the NHL, likely 2 if he ever makes the NHL.

    Maybe its Noah Dobson or Bode Wilde – years away.

    I take it you’re not a fan of Benning?

  66. leadfarmer says:

    If anyone still enjoys pieces of tree with words on it, the book Guns Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond is an interesting read on how different civilizations came to be. Yes a guy named Jared can write

  67. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you for this place LT and everything you do to make this a welcoming place. I have to admit I was disturbed by the information posted, appreciate N64’s deleted link.

    Everyone has a different world view, we could grow up next to another family and be lifelong best friends, but our histories and family cultures could be completely different, yet we still get along. My spouse is from another country and it sometimes seems like we are truly from different planets, yet we have a strong relationship, respect our substantially differing opnions and unique perspectives, yet we plan to continue exploring this often confusing world together for the rest our lives.

    Having grown up in the Catholic church, attending school with children from 4 different Reservations, and having served in 2 war zones and on humanitarian missions I have a lot to say on this subject, but I am sure all of us do. Primarily I think it is important to always be mindful and respectful of each other, we can certainly do that here.

  68. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    If anyone still enjoys pieces of tree with words on it, the book Guns Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond is an interesting read on how different civilizations came to be.Yes a guy named Jared can write

    I read that too some years ago. Agreed, definitely very interesting.

  69. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    On OEL, I also love the player but not the cost (acquisition cost plus contract).

    With that said, OEL would be a difference maker – he is on another level from any of our d-men and any d-man we’ve had since Pronger (Vishnovsky notwithstanding).

    Its a tough deal to make because Oscar plus the 10th (for example) doesn’t clear enough cap space.Actually, it does for next season as OEL’s new deal would not kick in until 2019/20.

    As much as I’d love me some OEL, I don’t think I’m on board with this type of trade – we have some serious cost-certainty and potential high value contracts in our top 4 and I’m hugely fine with the following going forward:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/XXXXX

    I don’t know who that XXX is though.Is there an internal option? Bear may be it but he may never be able to handle top 4 minutes at ES.Berglund? At least a year away from the NHL, likely 2 if he ever makes the NHL.

    Maybe its Noah Dobson or Bode Wilde – years away.

    I agree with you that we still do not know what we have in Bear and Berglund. We will have a much better idea after the comming season. Next off season we have contracts of Sekera and Russel that should allow us some movement options. We will also have a much better idea if we are able to sign a place holder right D as an option given that Sekera and Russel are not able to repeat their 16-17 year as second pairing capable. The fact that much is not known reference 2nd pairing right D is precisely why if available drafting a high skill right D with our 10th overall pick would be most prudent!

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I take it you’re not a fan of Benning?

    I don’t mind Matt Benning – in fact, I’m hopeful he can fill the 2RD slot this year (something he, unfortunately, wasn’t able to do last season).

    I’m just not convinced he’s the 2RD of the future – maybe this year he takes another step forward and shows he is.

    I didn’t see him nearly as bad as many seem to this past season – better in the 2nd half than the 1st half.

  71. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Lowetide,

    Primarily I think it is important to always be mindful and respectful of each other

    I’d like to echo that, agree 100%.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: I agree with you that we still do not know what we have in Bear and Berglund. We will have a much better idea after the comming season. Next off season we have contracts of Sekera and Russel that should allow us some movement options. We will also have a much better idea if we are able to sign a place holder right D as an option given that Sekera and Russel are not able to repeat their 16-17 year as second pairing capable. The fact that much is not known reference 2nd pairing right D is precisely why if available drafting a high skill right D with our 10th overall pick would be most prudent!

    I’m getting more on board with drafting a Bode Wilde but don’t think I’d reach for him at 10 and a trade down, while great in theory and as a discussion point, is tough to consummate.

    I’m not so sure that Russell contract is ever moveable. Unlike Sekera, his NMC stays for the duration of the contract and will be in place for the currently scheduled expansion draft. I can’t see any GM taking on that contract knowing its a “must protect”. I believe he’ll need to be bought out leading up to the expansion draft (will only have one year left so a two year dead cap hit – a $3M dead cap hit the year of the buyout (sign) but only $500K the following year).

  73. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t mind Matt Benning – in fact, I’m hopeful he can fill the 2RD slot this year (something he, unfortunately, wasn’t able to do last season).

    I’m just not convinced he’s the 2RD of the future – maybe this year he takes another step forward and shows he is.

    I didn’t see him nearly as bad as many seem to this past season – better in the 2nd half than the 1st half.

    I agree with all that. I mentioned it because I feel like he has as good (or better) a chance of being that real 2RD solution as the others you listed. Though he was an odd omission.

  74. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If a player with a NMC is traded, the GM of the new team has the option to renew; if not, it’s considered fulfilled and void as soon as the contract is voluntarily moved with the player’s consent.

    To my understanding, at least.

  75. YKOil says:

    Rube Foster:
    I would respectfully recommend that you have your production staff from your radio show reach out to Mr. Neeposh the Manager of the Elite First Nations Hockey Team and ask him to be a guest for a segment on your show. Simply have Mr. Neeposhshare the story of their team’s experience and let him know that there are people across the country of Canada that support his team.

    Provide the Elite First Nations an opportunity to share their story and experience and let them share how that experience made them feel.

    Offer the Elite First Nations Hockey team yours and ours sincerest empathy.

    snipped some bits, but yeah, this.

    start with what you have. you have this.

  76. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree, like LT has pointed out often, he showed very well as a rookie and then he was concussed and he seemed to be a different player. There were a lot of yips in his game this past season, but he will be much better and he will be on a value contract. He will be an important player.

  77. €√¥£€^$ says:

    leadfarmer,

    I appreciate the recommendation, I definitely do not read as often as I should.

    To go even further back I’ve been reading “Sapiens” by Yuval Noah Harari, good read.

  78. YKOil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m not so sure that Russell contract is ever moveable. Unlike Sekera, his NMC stays for the duration of the contract and will be in place for the currently scheduled expansion draft.I can’t see any GM taking on that contract knowing its a “must protect”.I believe he’ll need to be bought out leading up to the expansion draft (will only have one year left so a two year dead cap hit – a $3M dead cap hit the year of the buyout (sign) but only $500K the following year).

    True. Even though I have had one of the more conservative viewpoints on this contract I had not spent much time on this aspect to it.

    The difference between the 3rd and 4th year is striking:

    … 10 to 15 team list
    … $4 million salary to $2.5 million salary with a $1 million signing bonus (on a $4 million cap hit)

    So, to me, it is only in the 4th year that this contract is readily moved – versus all those who say it isn’t a bad deal because it can ‘just’ be traded in the 3rd year.

    To your point, it now becomes a matter of lining up a match between the 15 teams on the list and one that afford to carry a NTC into expansion. Not easy.

    Nice work PC.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    The position that Russell’s NMC precludes him from being traded as not team would take on his contract and be forced to protect him in the expansion draft is not as cut and dry – just doing a bit of research and, if he does waive for a trade, the acquiring team has a choice of being bound by the clause going forward so they could choose not to be bound by it.

    I guess the result is that, perhaps, Russell would only agree to the original trade if the acquiring team agrees to be bound by the clause going forward.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    If a player with a NMC is traded, the GM of the new team has the option to renew; if not, it’s considered fulfilled and void as soon as the contract is voluntarily moved with the player’s consent.

    To my understanding, at least.

    Yes, the acquiring team has the option of agreeing to be bound by the clause going forward so, technically, it may not continue. With that said, I would think that in many/most situations, the player would only agree to waive in the first instance if the acquiring team agreed to be bound going forward.

    That is just speculating though but it makes sense to me.

    Kris Russell may waive to go to a few Western destinations but perhaps only if the acquiring team agrees to be bound by the clause as location is clearly important to him.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I agree, like LT has pointed out often, he showed very well as a rookie and then he was concussed and he seemed to be a different player.There were a lot of yips in his game this past season, but he will be much better and he will be on a value contract.He will be an important player.

    I think his improved play in the 2nd half was largely due to being furtehr removed from the concussion and feeling the game better – just a guess though.

    Yup, he should come in well under $2M ($1.5M to $1.75M I would guess) and he could definitely provide value in excess of that cap hit.

    If we don’t fill the position externally, it would be a boon if he could take the next step and earn that 2RD spot – I do NOT want Kris Russell there, not if “playing faster”, that is, transitioning the puck quicker, is a goal for the team this coming year.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil: True.Even though I have had one of the more conservative viewpoints on this contract I had not spent much time on this aspect to it.

    The difference between the 3rd and 4th year is striking:

    … 10 to 15 team list
    … $4 million salary to $2.5 million salary with a $1 million signing bonus (on a $4 million cap hit)

    So, to me, it is only in the 4th year that this contract is readily moved – versus all those who say it isn’t a bad deal because it can ‘just’ be traded in the 3rd year.

    To your point, it now becomes a matter of lining up a match between the 15 teams on the list and one that afford to carry a NTC into expansion.Not easy.

    Nice work PC.

    I over-stated the case a bit.

    If we are able to trade him prior to (or during) that 4th year, the acquiring team has the option of allowing the NMC to continue so there is the potential to move him as the acquiring team can agree to allow the clause to lapse. If we are looking for him to waive ahead of time, I would think a condition of his waiving would be the acquiring team agreeing to be bound by the clause going forward.

  83. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe there is no trade market for Kris Russell – he has a NMC that will be in force when the expansion draft is scheduled to occur.

    Do we really think a general manager would acquire that contract knowing they have zero choice but to use up one of three d-men protected spots (or one of the eight spots if they need to go that route)?

    The one other thing you aren’t factoring in is acquisition cost – in addition to Klefbom, what other assets do we have to give up for OEL and his $8.5M X 8 contract?

    Don’t get me wrong, you are right, switching Klefbom for OEL, in isolation, is easy and OEL/Larsson would be magnificent for the next 5-7 years, however, its a bit more complicated than that.

    McDavid – $12.5M
    Drai – $8.5M
    OEL – $8.5M

    All fine contracts but that cap space sure gets eaten up quickly.

    I do salivate at OEL/Larsson though – I may be prejudiced by the small sample size of the WHC.

    When Russell is traded the other team has to agree to any movement clauses. So it’s possible he could be traded to a team for short term help, and not be protected in the expansion draft. As long as PC can find a team out of the ten that wants him Russell has no say in the matter.

  84. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t mind Matt Benning – in fact, I’m hopeful he can fill the 2RD slot this year (something he, unfortunately, wasn’t able to do last season).

    I’m just not convinced he’s the 2RD of the future – maybe this year he takes another step forward and shows he is.

    I didn’t see him nearly as bad as many seem to this past season – better in the 2nd half than the 1st half.

    I agree that Benning was better down the stretch. In fact, he seemed to get better after that reckless crosscheck by Evander Kane. But starting him as 2RD is putting him in a position to fail IMO. Ever hopeful though.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    2RD is my main priority to fill via external acquisition.

    Others feel differently and wish to upgrade up front.

    Problem with filling the 2RD spot externally is that, if its any sort of established player, we will need to move cap out from the left side in order to make it work – we know the issues with moving Sekera or Russell and the limited desire to move Nurse or Klefbom.

  86. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe there is no trade market for Kris Russell – he has a NMC that will be in force when the expansion draft is scheduled to occur.

    Do we really think a general manager would acquire that contract knowing they have zero choice but to use up one of three d-men protected spots (or one of the eight spots if they need to go that route)?

    The one other thing you aren’t factoring in is acquisition cost – in addition to Klefbom, what other assets do we have to give up for OEL and his $8.5M X 8 contract?

    Don’t get me wrong, you are right, switching Klefbom for OEL, in isolation, is easy and OEL/Larsson would be magnificent for the next 5-7 years, however, its a bit more complicated than that.

    McDavid – $12.5M
    Drai – $8.5M
    OEL – $8.5M

    All fine contracts but that cap space sure gets eaten up quickly.

    I do salivate at OEL/Larsson though – I may be prejudiced by the small sample size of the WHC.

    NTC turns into an NMC next summer, 2019-20: Player submits a 10 team trade list.

    Next summer teams are more worried about icing a good team than an expansion draft that hasn’t been announced yet and is speculated to be summer of ’20, but could slide to summer of ’21.

  87. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    2RD is my main priority to fill via external acquisition.

    Others feel differently and wish to upgrade up front.

    Problem with filling the 2RD spot externally is that, if its any sort of established player, we will need to move cap out from the left side in order to make it work – we know the issues with moving Sekera or Russell and the limited desire to move Nurse or Klefbom.

    IMO, both are needed.

    Move Klefbom + for a better RHD and move Russell to his natural left side, where he did better offensively early in the season.

    Sekera – Larsson
    Nurse – new D
    Russell – X

    We also badly need a shooter at wing for Connor and/or Leon, and assuming Puljujarvi or Yamamoto to be that guy is foolhardy.

  88. Jaxon says:

    Re: my understanding of NMCs, NTCs, as they pertain to Russell and a possible June 2002 Expansion draft

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/kris-russell

    2018-19 NMC
    2019-20 Modified NTC, NMC
    2020-21 Modified NTC, NMC
    CLAUSE DETAILS: 2019-20: Player submits a 10 team trade list. 2020-21: Player submits a 15 team trade list.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#nmc

    “The clause can travel with the player even if he consents to being traded or is claimed on waivers (waivers are not applicable in NMCs)
    This requires that the acquiring team sign an addendum to the contract ensuring that the clause does in fact travel with the player (written by the player’s agent)
    If the acquiring team refuses to sign the addendum, and the player waives his clause anyway, at that point the clause may be nullified”

    SEASON CAP SAVE BUYOUT CAP HIT
    2018-19 $3,388,889 $611,111 – this represents huge cap savings for the upcoming season when they may need it most, especially if they want to go after any substantial players via trade or free agency.
    2019-20 $2,888,889 $1,111,111
    2020-21 $388,889 $3,611,111
    2021-22 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
    2022-23 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111
    2023-24 -$1,111,111 $1,111,111

    TRADE NOW
    To trade Russell anytime between now and July 1st, 2019, they’ll need to ask Russell to waive his NMC. Now, Russell and his agent can request that the condition of waiving his NMC be that the other team retains it and it travels with him to the new team. If the team refuses to sign then the trade would not happen unless Russell agrees to waive it anyway and lose his NMC and therefore risk being exposed in the expansion draft. I really doubt Russell would agree to this and I doubt the acquiring team would take on a NMC if he doesn’t agree. Therefore it would seem he is untradable before July 1st, 2019.

    TRADE BETWEEN JULY 1st, 2019 to June 18th-ish, 2020 (date possible protected lists must be submitted)
    During this time Russell has a Modified NTC and a NMC. He cannot be sent down or waived and he must be protected. If requested by Edmonton, he must submit a 10 team trade list. If they find a fit and he is traded, the acquiring team would be taking on the exact same contract, as Russell has not had to waive anything. Therefore his NMC travels with him. Which means they will have to protect him in the expansion draft. There may be some teams willing to do this but if Russell doesn’t want to be traded I’m sure he can submit a list of 10 teams who already have 3 or more quality D that need to be protected. If he is willing to go to Calgary maybe he submits Calgary and 9 other teams which need to protect 3 or 4 D already.

    It’s hard to do a crystal ball as some players won’t re-sign with their current clubs, but they will sign new players they value, so it should be a similar situation whenever it happens.

    Ex.)
    1. ANA Fowler, Lindholm, Montour, Manson
    2. NSH Ekholm, Josi, Ellis, Subban
    3. CAR Slavin, Faulk, Pesce, Hanifin, Fleury, van Riemsdyk
    4. PHI Provorov, Gostisbehere, Gudas, Sanheim
    5. CBJ Jones, Werenski, Savard
    6. DAL Klingberg, Lindell, Pateryn
    7. MTL Weber, Reilly, Petry (NMC), Alzner, Juulsen
    8. WPG Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrisey
    9. CGY Giordano, Hamilton, Hamonic, Brodie
    10. PIT Letang (NMC), Dumoulin, Maatta, Schultz
    11. WSH Orlov, Niskanen, Carlson
    12. NYR Shattenkirk (NMC), Staal (NMC), Pionk, Skjei
    13. SJS Burns, Vlasic (NMC), Braun
    14. FLA Ekblad, Yandle (NMC), Matheson
    15. CHI Keith (NMC), Seabrook (NMC), Gustafsson
    16. LAK Doughty, Martinez, Phaneuf (NMC), Forbort, Muzzin
    17. STL Pietrangelo, Parayko, Edmundson
    18. TBL Hedman, Stralman, Dotchin, Sergachev
    19. MIN Suter (NMC), Brodin, Dumba, Spurgeon
    20. TOR Gardiner, Zaitsev, Rielly

    That’s already more work than I was hoping to put into this post, but I think it illustrates just how many teams Russell and his agent will be able to find with a few days research that will find his NMC a non-starter. I’d argue almost every player listed here is more valuable than Russell. Not to mention that Russell’s cap hit is substantial enough to scare a few cap-crunched teams away.

    JUNE 18, 2020 PROTECTED LISTS:
    If they can’t get rid of them by June 18th, 2020, then they will have to protect him.

    In a 7F-3D situation that would mean something like this:
    Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Strome
    Nurse, Larsson, Russell (NMC)
    They lose Klefbom (or Sekera, but he’s probably traded in June 2019) in this scenario.

    In a 4F-4D situation that would mean something like this:
    Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, Russell (NMC)
    Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, and one of Nugent-Hopkins or Puljujarvi
    They lose Nugent-Hopkins or Puljujarvi in this scenario.

    If they buyout Russell on June 17th, 2020, they can do this:
    Lucic (NMC), McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Strome
    Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom
    They lose someone like Benning in this scenario, which is much more acceptable.

    SEASON CAP SAVE BUYOUT CAP HIT
    2020-21 $1,000,000 $3,000,000
    2021-22 -$500,000 $500,000

    Personally, I’d be okay with buying him out now to save cap space in an offseason where they really need it. Not sure why Pouliot was bought out last summer when they didn’t really need the space. Plus they could have used his PK ability and some scoring depth on the wings. Okay, slightly off topic. but it would make buying out Russell now a bit more palatble as it would be the only buyout on the books.

    Ideally, any RHD they acquire would be short-term deals expiring before the expansion draft or for players who have yet to play 10 North American professional games (while on an NHL contract) as of today so they won’t need to be protected in the expansion draft. (If I understand the eligibility rules correctly)

  89. Jaxon says:

    russ99: NTC turns into an NMC next summer, 2019-20: Player submits a 10 team trade list.

    Next summer teams are more worried about icing a good team than an expansion draft that hasn’t been announced yet and is speculated to be summer of ’20, but could slide to summer of ’21.

    His current full NMC turns in a NMC with a Modified NTC of 10 teams.

    If teams are only worried about icing a good team I’m not sure a $4M LHD who plays 16:47 even strength minute (and should be playing less) moves the needle enough to change someone into a winner. That $4M could be used better elsewhere. Add the NMC to that and Russell doesn’t look so attractive to build a winner with. There are so many better D at a lower cap hit without the NMC.

    There were only 20 D with NMCs last season and almost all of them are better than Russell.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Russell is essentially untradeable by him waiving the clause as I would assume he would make it a condition of the waive that the acquiring team agrees to be bound by the clause – we know location matters.

    When he has to submit a trade list he becomes a bit more tradeable as he doesn’t have the ability to force those teams to agree to honour the trade protection going forward.

    If we do have the contract on our books at the time of the expansion draft, I’m highly confident we buy him out before we protect him. It would be a $3M dead cap hit the first year and $500K the second year.

    Not a great outcome but highly likely better than protecting him and losing a material and younger asset.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca