Preview of Coming Attractions: Expect Magnus Paajarvi

It’s time to talk about reasonable expectations for the draft. Fans of every NHL team are reaching fever pitch, with dreams of drafting a major difference maker for their favorite team. Edmonton selects No. 10 overall, and the “average” pick at that number is something on this side of sexy. The outer marker is quality, the low ebb is depressing. Get ready for the real news about the NHL draft and expectations.

THE ATHLETIC!

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CULLEN’S DRAFT PICK VALUE

  • 10 – Generational 
  • 9 – Elite Player 
  • 8 – First Line, Top Pair D
  • 7 – Top Six Forward, Top Four D
  • 6 – Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
  • 5 – NHL Regular, 350+ NHL games
  • 4 – Fringe NHLer, 200+ NHL games
  • 3 – Very Good Minor Leaguer, 50-200 NHL games
  • 2 – Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • 1 – 10 or fewer NHL games

Scott Cullen has been running these numbers for years now, and it’s incredible to see how quickly ‘average’ goes downhill after the No. 1 selection. If Edmonton spends a decade drafting in the 20’s (which should be the case), we’re going to get used to it. As it is, I thought it would be a good idea to show you what an ‘average’ draft would look like based on draft trends from 1990-2013 (Cullen’s study):

  • First Round—No. 10 overall—(NHL regular) Magnus Paajarvi
  • Second Round—No. 40 overall—(Very good minor leaguer, 50-200 NHL games) Marc Pouliot
  • Third Round—No. 71 overall—(Minor leaguer, under 50 games) Teemu Hartikainen
  • Fourth Round—No. 102 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. Montoya covered the condition).
  • Fifth Round—No. 133 overall(Minor leaguer, under 50 games) Mike Morrison
  • Sixth Round—No. 164 overall(Minor leaguer, under 50 games) Dwight Helminen
  • Seventh Round—No. 195 overall(Minor leaguer, under 50 games) Alex Plante

Remember this is average, and No. 10 overall has every chance to be a solid NHL player for years to come. That said, we shouldn’t be at all surprised if the Oilers repeat the Paajarvi-Lander run of 2009. It is amazing to see it happen every year, but by the time we hit No. 10 on the Friday night of the draft the top end talent is running on empty. Edmonton does seem to be lucky in that this draft is delivering as many as one dozen blue-chip futures.

REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS

Yesterday I posted some early thoughts on minor leaguers and reasonable expectations for NHL games in 2018-19. I listed Kailer Yamamoto (40 NHL games), Tyler Benson (18-30), Ethan Bear (20), Cooper Marody (5-10), Caleb Jones (5) and William Lagesson (1).

I received some feedback on the predictions, and thought it might be an idea to give you my thoughts on the numbers above. First, we have to agree that it’s very early and roster changes could/should make the projections above moot. Still, the predictions inform us about areas of need on the roster. Let’s post both pro teams’ projected depth charts by position.

  • Center: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, (Ryan Strome) Jujhar Khaira, Brad Malone
  • Left Wing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Milan Lucic, Pontus Aberg, (Drake Caggiula)
  • Right Wing: Ty Rattie, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Zack Kassian
  • Left Defense: Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, (Darnell Nurse)
  • Right Defense: Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, (Matt Benning)
  • Goal: Cam Talbot, Mikko Koskinen, Al Montoya
  • Center: Cooper Marody, Cameron Hebig, Colin Larkin
  • Left Wing: Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Ostap Safin
  • Right Wing: Tyler Vesel, Mitch Callahan 
  • Left Defense: Keegan Lowe, Ryan Stanton, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson
  • Right Defense: Ethan Bear, Eric Gryba, Ryan Mantha
  • Goal: Shane Starrett, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner

There is some bleeding among the forward positions, but I think Jujhar Khaira will be the No. 4 center unless the club can add Derek Ryan or similar. That puts left wing into a state of flux, with Pontus Aberg and Drake Caggiula both guaranteed spots in the everyday lineup. The odds of one of those men struggling is very high, and allows Benson his projected (18-30) games. Cooper Marody may pass Benson in training camp, but I’m betting on the player with higher pedigree (who is also aided when Khaira is placed at center).

I have Yamamoto on the opening night roster, but that should change. We’ll see, but I suspect he will start his season in Bakersfield. Ethan Bear is a wildcard, I think both Lagesson and Jones get a cup of coffee. It all changes when the trades start coming in, but for now Tyler Benson is in a very good spot.

THE DRAFT AND THE WHL

The Edmonton Oilers draft heavily out of the WHL, as I noted in my piece for The Athletic back in February. Despite my belief that Ty Smith is one of the best players available this year, it is not a strong year for the league. One year ago, my Top 120 list featured 24 names and the actual NHL draft saw 32 names chosen. This year, my Top 120 list has only 14 names.

  1. LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs.
  2. RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes.
  3. RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors.
  4. LD Alex Alexeyev, Red Deer Rebels.
  5. L Cole Fonstadt, Prince Albert Raiders.
  6. LD Filip Kral, Spokane Chiefs.
  7. LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants.
  8. RC Kyle Topping, Kelowna Rockets.
  9. R Riley Sutter, Everett Silvertips.
  10. L Justin Almeida, Moose Jaw Warriors.
  11. LC Riley Stotts, Calgary Hitmen.
  12. L Ryan Chykowski, Medicine Hat Tigers.
  13. RC Chase Wouters, Saskatoon Blades.
  14. L Hudson Elynuik, Spokane Chiefs.

The last time Edmonton passed on the WHL? 2006. This year’s list is not strong, the forward group is especially thin. There’s a chance the Oilers leave the draft without a kid from the dub. There are some interesting names here, perhaps they’ll grab someone late.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning drunk with fabulous guests! It all gets going at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Buyout options, finding value contracts and players the coach will play.
  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. The value of the NHL combine, what to do at No. 10 overall.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. A busy June will get started later this week with the SCF drawing to a close. How much activity should we expect this summer?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soup!

 

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134 Responses to "Preview of Coming Attractions: Expect Magnus Paajarvi"

  1. stevebergeron97 says:

    LT, unless a team in the top 9 throws a curveball, or takes Kotkaniemi early, I don’t see a scenario where a righty D falls to us at 10. the most likely scenario I see is PC running up to the podium and butchering JK’s name. I’d love to hear Ty Smith called, I just don’t see it with that late U18 push from Jesperi.

  2. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – LT: thanks for the reminder of the “expected” outcome from drafting 10th

    – It’s normal to get excited about potential new toys. Maybe this is the year we get lucky again and end up with a really good selection like Klef or Eberle for a relatively later pick.

    – But its not good practice to set expectations that we will find the gem that is going to be bona-fide impact player. We are drafting 10th, and your historical numbers don’t lie

    – Hope for the best, but don’t project. Vor might add and optimize things with his holistic draft strategies, but its still a lot of time and luck and circumstance for all but the elite of the elite.

    * any interest in doing an off-season arm-chair GM contest again? i.e. who we draft, trades, starting roster, contracts, etc? I give a donation to LT on behalf of the winner?

  3. Woogie63 says:

    If Nuge can’t score 40 goals on Connor’s Left Wing he needs to play with Driasaitl.

  4. jtblack says:

    #10 Slot in recent years has been quite good.

    Ritchie, Rantanen & Jost all look poised for long nhl careers. Due to the Salary cap, more teams are playing younger players, meaning kids picked #10 now have a better chance of playing (and playing soon) than they did even 5 years ago.

    Edmonton SHOULD be able to get a Top 9 F / Top 6 D minimum. A #7 or higher ranking on Cullens system should be the expectation.

  5. Brantford Boy says:

    Hard to tell the best player in the world to not go super nova… what would the draft be like had we not won the those last few regular season games… probably drafting in the #6 spot but we leapfrogged Rangers & Hawks, possibly the Canucks… and of course Dobson being an outlier in March (10-14), but after his Memorial Cup run and Coach’s Corner segments has him what now appears to be a for sure 5 to 8 overall… that LT guy knew something before us… Ty Smith is looking like gold unless there is someone who goes off the board on the 22nd…

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack,

    – A Rantenen draft result would be awesome: but he only did 9 games in year 1, then made the team, and in year 3 he be awesome.

    – This team wins cups if/when the emergence of Kailer and Pool as wingers on skill lines, and a few more Jar-Jar types that are controlled, cheap and effective (i.e. internal), and maybe another Maroon-like fleecing. Oh yeah, and some goalies that make saves. Is that a lot?

  7. Connoreah says:

    Another way to look at what to expect with the #10 selection….

    In 2017 the top tier of the draft included Hirshier (#1) and Patrick (#2), two guys who would probably go closer to #5-7 this year (Dahlen, Svech, Zadina, Hughes/Dobson, Tkatchuk likely ahead of both). The Oilers selected Yamamoto at #22 that year, and he’s projecting to be an offensive top 6 forward long-term.

    I don’t expect the Oilers to get a Paarjarvi at #10 this year. I expect more. Someone with a higher ceiling than Yamamoto (forward) or Klefbom (dman). For me, that’s how I value the pick. It’s substantial.

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Connoreah:

    I don’t expect the Oilers to get a Paarjarvi at #10 this year. I expect more. Someone with a higher ceiling than Yamamoto (forward) or Klefbom (dman). For me, that’s how I value the pick. It’s substantial.

    – History doesn’t support your expectations: your cherry picking a few good results.

    – LT provided an accurate math based probability: your likely going to be disspointed, based on historicals if you expect a 1st line D a la Klef. Kailer underwhelmed this year IMO on the over-all year (albeit you can parse numbers to highlight some good parts) so who knows what he

    – Even if he’s Kailer (who we don’t know what he is), you would not be expecting anything from the pick for at least 2 years

  9. ArmchairGM says:

    stevebergeron97:
    LT, unless a team in the top 9 throws a curveball, or takes Kotkaniemi early, I don’t see a scenario where a righty D falls to us at 10. the most likely scenario I see is PC running up to the podium and butchering JK’s name. I’d love to hear Ty Smith called, I just don’t see it with that late U18 push from Jesperi.

    I agree, and won’t be disappointed with that outcome. If you haven’t already I’d encourage you to watch the YouTube videos of Kotkaniemi in Liiga play – and keep reminding yourself that he’s a 17-year-old playing against men. He drives the play and creates grade A chances for his linemates constantly. Reminds me of Nugent-Hopkins somehow, but he’s bigger.

  10. Bad Seed says:

    It’s funny how things have turned for Kotkaniemi – a few months ago I could have swore that I read many pundits predicting he didn’t have top end skill and projected to top out as a second line player. Now everyone is clamouring for him and may even go 3.

  11. Rondo says:

    If Oilers really want Kotkaniemi they will have to trade up.

    Montreal could take him at #3 reminds me of JP going #4 as Columbus passes on the consensus #3 and took the centre Pierre Luc Dubois.

    Detroit is very interested in Kotkaniemi, don’t know if he is #1 on their list.

    Chicago also likes Kotkaniemi.

    I assume Oilers if they really wanted Kotkaniemi they would move up to #6 and that could be too expensive. Moving up to #3 is too high of a price to pay.

  12. Yeti says:

    Rondo,

    I’m not sure that the Oilers really want him. I think they’d be happy to get him, but given the other picks available at 10, I doubt they are targeting him to the extent they would use assets to acquire him.

  13. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    If Oilers really want Kotkaniemi they will have to trade up.

    Montreal could take him at #3 reminds me of JP going #4as Columbus passes on the consensus #3 and took the centrePierre Luc Dubois.

    Detroit is very interested in Kotkaniemi, don’t know if he is #1 on their list.

    Chicago also likes Kotkaniemi.

    I assume Oilers if they really wanted Kotkaniemi they would move up to #6 and that could be too expensive. Moving up to #3 is too high of a price to pay.

    I certainly am not advocating moving up to select Kotkaniemi, but the fact that other teams are interested does not mean they’ll select him at 3 or 6. They’re just doing their due diligence on the prospects… Detroit specifically mentioned the possibility of trading down, but not out of the top 10, so they obviously are trying to get a sense of who will be available at 9 or 10 and what other assets they can acquire for 6.

    If Kotkaniemi is gone before the tenth selection, that means a very good prospect is still available, whether it be Boqvist, Bouchard or Wahlstrom (to name some possibilities), we should make that pick and be happy with it. I don’t see Kotkaniemi as a can’t-miss prospect, but he’s too good to think about trading that pick away unless the return is crazy good.

  14. OmJo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – History doesn’t support your expectations: your cherry picking a few good results.

    – LT provided an accurate math based probability: your likely going to be disspointed, based on historicals if you expect a 1st line D a la Klef.Kailerunderwhelmed this year IMO on the over-all year (albeit you can parse numbers to highlight some good parts) so who knows what he

    – Even if he’s Kailer (who we don’t know what he is), you would not be expecting anything from the pick for at least 2 years

    I feel like there’s more to it than just where a player was drafted. You have to also take into consideration the quality of the draft, quality of scouting, how the player was handled/developed after being selected, injuries, etc.

    Klefbom, for example, was drafted 19th overall. So it should be more likely that we can draft another Klefbom at 10th overall, no?

  15. knighttown says:

    Happiness is choosing 10th in a draft where there are 10 players I’d be happy with. I use the term “I” for very good reason. “I” really have no clue who the best players are but the hype has told me there’s 10 so that’s what I’m going with. With Kotkaniemi rising just take BPA.

    Here’s a question. Of the big 10 who would you LEAST like to draft.

    I’d probably say Kotkaniemi, Bouchard, Dobson and Tkachuk. I have Hughes at #3 and Boquist at #6.

    I just hope they don’t go off the board.

  16. Oilman99 says:

    Let’s hope the Oilers are not blinded by the WHL. The OHL has proven that it is a tougher,stronger league over past years, we need the best player available. The current scouting staff appear to more cognizant of the talent in the other leagues. I am anxious to see how Benson progresses after an off season of being healthy to train properly for first time in a couple of seasons.

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    If we somehow get Whalstrom at 10 I’ll be doing my happy dance for days. Is it actually possible? What would we need to see happen? I guess we would be hoping for a run of dmen.

  18. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    I just hope they don’t go off the board.

    You just HAD to say it… Now watch the Oilers become this years version of Boston in 2015… Except the oilers only have one first rounder…

  19. who says:

    knighttown:
    Happiness is choosing 10th in a draft where there are 10 players I’d be happy with.I use the term “I” for very good reason.“I” really have no clue who the best players are but the hype has told me there’s 10 so that’s what I’m going with.With Kotkaniemi rising just take BPA.

    Here’s a question.Of the big 10 who would you LEAST like to draft.

    I’d probably say Kotkaniemi, Bouchard, Dobson and Tkachuk.I have Hughes at #3 and Boquist at #6.

    I just hope they don’t go off the board.

    I would least like to draft Boqvist. I understand he’s very talented but I think he has the biggest bust potential in the consensus top 10.
    I bet that’s the guy who’s left when the Oilers pick.

  20. doritogrande says:

    Seventh Round—No. 195 overall—(Minor leaguer, under 50 games) Alex Plante

    Ouch. That hurt LT. Right in the projection.

  21. Spooky Lynx says:

    Murray Pam
    @Pammerhockey
    Interesting comment from Filip Zadina pertaining to #Habs in @Michael_Traikos story: “Montreal, I know very well. I’ve been to the city many times and they’re fans are awesome. But I think they’re looking for a centre or a D.”
    5:21 AM · Jun 5, 2018

  22. John Chambers says:

    knighttown,

    Great question – who would you least like the Oilers to draft?

    I think one of Bouchard, Dobson, Boqvist, or Kotkaniemi will be there. To me the Canadian defensemen are the safe play, with both likely to become, in time, #2,3,4 guys. Boqvist is more of a wildcard IMO and I believe he’ll be more Toby Enstrom than Karlsson.

    Bouchard and Dobson I’m guessing have careers like Keith Yandle and Brent Seabrook, which are fine picks if you’re asking me.

    We already have 4 NHL centers, none older than 25, so Kotkaniemi is redundant to us.

  23. stevebergeron97 says:

    If someone selects Kotkaniemi in the top 9 that’s fine, it only means a substantial talent falls to the #10 position, which would probably benefit the organization as we are quite strong down the middle. However, a McDavid, Draisaitl and Kotkaniemi depth chart sounds really nice 😃

  24. texmex says:

    Frank Seravalli

    Verified account

    @frank_seravalli
    3s3 seconds ago
    More
    #NYI announce GM Garth Snow and coach Doug Weight have been fired.

    Snow canned for the Eberle trade? ;p

  25. OmJo says:

    Doug Weight as an assistant coach: yea or nay?

  26. OmJo says:

    texmex:
    Frank Seravalli

    Verified account

    @frank_seravalli3s3 seconds ago
    More
    #NYI announce GM Garth Snow and coach Doug Weight have been fired.

    Snow canned for the Eberletrade? ;p

    It’s a travesty that Chiarelli has outlived Garth Snow (as an NHL GM)…

  27. John Chambers says:

    Man, Snow made some great trades.

    Barzal, Eberle, Leddy, Boychuk, Hamonic (sold high). Let go of Okposo and Frans Nielsen, and spent the dollars on Bailey while leaving cushion for Tavares.

    Ladd was a bad signing, Dal Colle hasn’t worked out, but their worst problem has been in goal. Jaro Halak cost Garth Snow his job.

  28. OmJo says:

    John Chambers:
    Man, Snow made some great trades.

    Barzal, Eberle, Leddy, Boychuk, Hamonic (sold high). Let go of Okposo and Frans Nielsen, and spent the dollars on Bailey while leaving cushion for Tavares.

    Ladd was a bad signing, Dal Colle hasn’t worked out, but their worst problem has been in goal. Jaro Halak cost Garth Snow his job.

    He had some great trades as of lately but he’s done nothing to really move the Islanders forward in the last 13 seasons.

  29. --hudson-- says:

    So Lou is the new GM while Snow and Weight are fired but remain with the organization. This is very Oilers-like.

  30. dustrock says:

    Judges have to retire at 75. Hope Lou knows what he’s doing.

  31. Jaxon says:

    John Chambers: We already have 4 NHL centers, none older than 25, so Kotkaniemi is redundant to us.

    I don’t think a C is redundant as they can almost always play wing as well and our winger depth is not so good.

  32. Jaxon says:

    who: I would least like to draft Boqvist. I understand he’s very talented but I think he has the biggest bust potential in the consensus top 10.
    I bet that’s the guy who’s left when the Oilers pick.

    I’m not so sure. You’d think the bust potential would land him outside the top 10 on someone’s list but I haven’t seen that on even one list. I have, however, seen Bouchard and Findon listed in the #18 range, and outside the top 10 on a few lists.

  33. Jaxon says:

    Top 5 scoring RHD primary points per minute adjusted to age and league:
    Boqvist
    Merkley
    Bouchard
    Axel Andersson
    Calen Addison

  34. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think Snow’s track record was pretty ugly until he pulled off the Leddy and Boychuk trades a couple years ago. Those were absolute steals at the time. Then he fleeced the Alberta teams. And now he gets fired. Not sure what I’m saying here.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon:
    Top 5 scoring RHD primary points per minute adjusted to age and league:
    Boqvist
    Merkley
    Bouchard
    Axel Andersson
    Calen Addison

    Hockey DB has Boqvist with 3 pts in 22 games this year playing with men. Does his 24 pts in 25 games in Sweden’s junior league carry that much weight?

  36. pts2pndr says:

    stevebergeron97:
    LT, unless a team in the top 9 throws a curveball, or takes Kotkaniemi early, I don’t see a scenario where a righty D falls to us at 10. the most likely scenario I see is PC running up to the podium and butchering JK’s name. I’d love to hear Ty Smith called, I just don’t see it with that late U18 push from Jesperi.

    Please explain how a left shot D fits in the Oiler scenario. You have a log jam at this position! It is akin to buying the third Porsche, who the hell drives it and where do you park it when you only have a two car garage!

  37. knighttown says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Murray Pam
    @Pammerhockey
    Interesting comment from Filip Zadina pertaining to #Habs in @Michael_Traikos story: “Montreal, I know very well. I’ve been to the city many times and they’re fans are awesome. But I think they’re looking for a centre or a D.”
    5:21 AM · Jun 5, 2018

    It definitely looks like Zadina isn’t going to Montreal and probably Kotkaniemi is. We’ve been seeing this smoke back with Kotka was projected to go 10-15 but now that’s he’s safely inside most top 10’s this seems to be more than 50%.

    Where does he go? Many teams will be “falling in love” with someone expected to be there like Brady Tkachuk. Does Ottawa change gears or do they stick with their guy?

    A trickle down effect for sure. I’d love to see either Hughes, Wahlstrom or of course Zadina fall to us/

  38. pts2pndr says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Hard to tell the best player in the world to not go super nova… what would the draft be like had we not won the those last few regular season games… probably drafting in the #6 spot but we leapfrogged Rangers & Hawks, possibly the Canucks… and of course Dobson being an outlier in March (10-14), but after his Memorial Cup run and Coach’s Corner segments has him what now appears to be a for sure 5 to 8 overall… that LT guy knew something before us… Ty Smith is looking like gold unless there is someone who goes off the board on the 22nd…

    It would be a perfect Oiler draft!

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Please explain how a left shot D fits in the Oiler scenario. You have a log jam at this position! It is akin to buying the third Porsche, who the hell drives it and where do you park it when you only have a two car garage!

    Look at our prospects though – LD is pretty thin on quality. Sekera and Russell have three years left on their contracts and might be gone in 1 or 2 years, therefore any leftie selected in June would slid right into place. Also, Ty Smith plays RD even though he shoots left.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve been pumping Khaira as the “perfect” 4C for a while now but, given it will be easier to find a cheap veteran 4C for $1M (give or take) than a middle 6 left winger, I’m on board with giving Khaira at bats on the left side in the middle 6 – enough at bats to give him a real shot to earn that spot.

    Does he have the offence?

  41. McSorley33 says:

    We can talk about what is best for the Oilers this summer all we want……trade?
    Draft? Free agent signing?

    Nope.

    The best thing that could possibly happen this summer for Edmonton just happened in Long Island.

    Thank you Lou Lamoriello!

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    stevebergeron97:
    LT, unless a team in the top 9 throws a curveball, or takes Kotkaniemi early, I don’t see a scenario where a righty D falls to us at 10. the most likely scenario I see is PC running up to the podium and butchering JK’s name. I’d love to hear Ty Smith called, I just don’t see it with that late U18 push from Jesperi.

    Kotkaniemi has been on such a heater in all the updated rankings, I can’t imagine him not going in the top 9 any longer.

    The Oilers may pass on Boquist after he falls given length of time from the NHL.

  43. McSorley33 says:

    Jaxon,

    Top 5 scoring RHD primary points per minute adjusted to age and league:
    Boqvist
    Merkley
    Bouchard
    Axel Andersson
    Calen Addison
    ***************************************************************

    Excellent.

  44. knighttown says:

    I can see not choosing Boquist if you’re some of those other teams from 5-10 but this would be a dream scenario for the Oilers. Not only is he likely BPA but it’s a absolutely perfect match for positional and team need.

    An ultra-skilled defenseman was born to produce on the PP?

    He’s right-handed you say?

    Oh, he’s also the youngest of the top prospects and one of the youngest in the draft?

    The Oilers have plenty of defense-first young veteran LHD they can pair him with; Sekera on 3rd pairing in 2019 and then eventually with Nurse or Klef on pairing 2.

    I have him in a dead-heat with Zadina for #4 on my list FOR THE OILERS behind Dahlin, Svech and Hughes. You run, don’t walk to the podium.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    knighttown: It definitely looks like Zadina isn’t going to Montreal and probably Kotkaniemi is.We’ve been seeing this smoke back with Kotka was projected to go 10-15 but now that’s he’s safely inside most top 10’s this seems to be more than 50%.

    Where does he go?Many teams will be “falling in love” with someone expected to be there like Brady Tkachuk.Does Ottawa change gears or do they stick with their guy?

    A trickle down effect for sure.I’d love to see either Hughes, Wahlstrom or of course Zadina fall to us/

    Very interesting! I’ve been pushing my Kotkaniemi agenda all over the internet (and, to a lesser extent, Joe Veleno), so nice to see success. 🙂

    Next up: Barrett Hayton.

    SOMEBODY good is going to fall to 10. I don’t much care who, just that it happens.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    This mock has two centers in the top-9 for the first time:

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would not be in favor of trading up to draft Kotkaniemi.

    From a high level, I think I’m only really on board with trading up if its a really large deal and we are getting the 2nd overall, Svechnikov (1st overall is unreasonable). I think Svechnikov is in a tier all by himself. The cost would be massive though – 10th, JP plus likely a decent prospect like Lagesson or Berglund or Benson. To expensive I think.

    As we all know, this team is still in need of accumulating depth at the NHL level and the prospect level. The prospect depth is important as the team will need prospects to “hit” and provide value contracts – they need value contracts to balance out the bloated contracts and the high cap hit (earned) contracts.

    Given the general lack of consensus after the first 2-3 picks, I’m not sure it makes sense to give up a material asset or assets to move up from 10 to say 6. Given the history, that would likely cost us more than our 3rd rounder, so our 2nd rounder which should be a very decent prospect on its own.

    At the same time, there won’t be too much to choose between 10 and 6. I mean, maybe its the difference between Dobson and Boquist. Sure, Dobson has jumped over Boquist in many rankings but, 3 months ago, Boquist was the higher rated prospect and he still has the potential to be the best offensive d-man in the class – yes, he’s a couple year’s away but that’s fine.

    Same thing with the forwards, if Kotkaniemi, has indeed moved up to well within the top 10, that means a very nice player is dropping to us and, at the end of the day, is Kotkaniemi a guarantee to be better than Fabaree or Valeno (or Whalstrom who may drop)? Two months ago, Kotkaniemi was generally ranked in the 18-28 range and he’s been on a heater.

    At the end of the day my thoughts are that there isn’t enough to choose between the player we’d draft at 6 and 10 to give up a material asset to make the jump.

  48. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Look at our prospects though – LD is pretty thin on quality. Sekera and Russell have three years left on their contracts and might be gone in 1 or 2 years, therefore any leftie selected in June would slid right into place. Also, Ty Smith plays RD even though he shoots left.

    Lagesson , Jones and Samorukov ( sorry about the spelling). The Nhl roster has 5 nhl,defensemen of which two can not move without restrictions for at least the next year or so. Other teams are aware of numbers, ie they can count to 3, therefore value of having to move one results in a below market deal.
    This is IMO counter productive. If Ty Smith is a francise quality D then all bets are off! Would anyone bet the house that Ty Smith is a franchise player because if not it is time to look elsewhere!

  49. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve been pumping Khaira as the “perfect” 4C for a while now but, given it will be easier to find a cheap veteran 4C for $1M (give or take) than a middle 6 left winger, I’m on board with giving Khaira at bats on the left side in the middle 6 – enough at bats to give him a real shot to earn that spot.

    Does he have the offence?

    I don’t know if he has the offense but the thought of a second line with him along with Drai an JP sure looks like a dominant second line. They have skill skating and size! I would not want to try and match up with that second line after trying to shut down McDavid!

  50. pts2pndr says:

    knighttown:
    I can see not choosing Boquist if you’re some of those other teams from 5-10 but this would be a dream scenario for the Oilers.Not only is he likely BPA but it’s a absolutely perfect match for positional and team need.

    An ultra-skilled defensemanwas born to produce on the PP?

    He’s right-handed you say?

    Oh, he’s also the youngest of the top prospects and one of the youngest in the draft?

    The Oilers have plenty of defense-first young veteran LHD they can pair him with; Sekera on 3rd pairing in 2019 and then eventually with Nurse or Klef on pairing 2.

    I have him in a dead-heat with Zadina for #4 on my list FOR THE OILERS behind Dahlin, Svech and Hughes.You run, don’t walk to the podium.

    He also has an excellent group of countrymen for mentorship! This is so correct but so not Oilers.

  51. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Very interesting! I’ve been pushing my Kotkaniemi agenda all over the internet (and, to a lesser extent, Joe Veleno), so nice to see success.

    Next up: Barrett Hayton.

    SOMEBODY good is going to fall to 10. I don’t much care who, just that it happens.

    I’m Okay with that!

  52. OmJo says:

    –hudson–:
    So Lou is the new GM while Snow and Weight are fired but remain with the organization.This is very Oilers-like.

    Well Lou has to hide the bodies somehow.

  53. OmJo says:

    pts2pndr: Please explain how a left shot D fits in the Oiler scenario. You have a log jam at this position! It is akin to buying the third Porsche, who the hell drives it and where do you park it when you only have a two car garage!

    If you draft Smith you probably consider moving Klefbom for a RHD next season *after* he has a rebound year.

    But this is the Oilers, so drafting Smith means Oscar gets traded by the start of round 2.

  54. Truth says:

    ArmchairGM:
    This mock has two centers in the top-9 for the first time:

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

    If Merkley ever fell that far I would hope the Oilers do something to jump up and grab him. He’s going to be somewhere between Ryan Ellis and PK Subban. As long as he doesn’t Ho-Sang. Worth the risk if it’s trading up into the early second round as projected in that.

  55. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM:
    This mock has two centers in the top-9 for the first time:

    http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

    I would take Dobson over Bouchard all day long! Skating is the numder one skill for all drafted players! When all else is equal skaiting is IMO the deciding factor!

  56. pts2pndr says:

    OmJo: If you draft Smith you probably consider moving Klefbom for a RHD next season *after* he has a rebound year.

    But this is the Oilers, so drafting Smith means Oscar gets traded by the start of round 2.

    OK so what do you anticipate you can get for him? Given his down year and history of injury his value is limited. You would be lucky to get a right D equal to Benning but with a bad contract! Logic dictates this is not a productive path to follow!

  57. dustrock says:

    Doubt the Oilers will want Boqvist because he’ll be 3 years away from regular NHL duty (remember he’s almost 2019 eligible).

    He’s be a fantastic pick I just can’t see Chia Pete (or many of the fans/press) being prepared to Draft and Develop. It’s not the Oilers Way.

    Regarding trading up, not sure I trade up (depending on cost obviously) for anyone not Dahlin, Svechnikov or MAYBE Zadina & Hughes.

    But I really want the #40 in this draft because I think the first round and early 2nd are going to be a bit crazy and we can grab someone like Addison or Bokk at #40.

  58. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    If Nuge can’t score 40 goals on Connor’s Left Wing he needs to play with Driasaitl.

    You are thinking about this wrong.

    If Nugent-Hopkins is playing left wing with McDavid, and they get a real NHL right wing to play with them, Nugent-Hopkins will score 30-something goals, not 40, but McDavid will score 60.

  59. SwedishPoster says:

    JimmyV1965: Hockey DB has Boqvist with 3 pts in 22 games this year playing with men. Does his 24 pts in 25 games in Sweden’s junior league carry that much weight?

    Swedish juniors is a lower scoring league than the CHL. More defensively structured game compared to NA juniors. Also as far as individual production goes secondary assists are much tougher to come by and players ice time are usually more spread among the players. You’d never see a kid getting 30 minutes a night like Evan Bouchard has been getting. Would be surprised if Boqvist got much more than 20 mins a night in juniors this season, despite being the undisputed star of his squad.

    And I’m not taking anything away from Bouchard btw, I think he looks like an absolute star and don’t get why so many people are dropping him on their lists.

  60. OmJo says:

    pts2pndr: OKso what do you anticipate you can get for him? Given his down year and history of injury his value is limited. You would be lucky to get a right D equal to Benningbut with a bad contract! Logic dictates this is not a productive path to follow!

    If you wait until next summer (or even trade deadline) and let him rebound, you can get a substantial return for Klefbom. Top line winger? He’s young, has a good contract, and when healthy is a very good defenceman. Or throw something into the mix to get a top pairing RHD to replace him.

    Personally I’d rather keep Klefbom.

  61. OmJo says:

    SwedishPoster: Swedish juniors is a lower scoring league than the CHL. More defensively structured game compared to NA juniors. Also as far as individual production goes secondary assists are much tougher to come by and players ice time are usually more spread among the players. You’d never see a kid getting 30 minutes a night like Evan Bouchard has been getting. Would be surprised if Boqvist got much more than 20 mins a night in juniors this season, despite being the undisputed star of his squad.

    And I’m not taking anything away from Bouchard btw, I think he looks like an absolute star and don’t get why so many people are dropping him on their lists.

    I don’t get it either. People say he’s too old, he was gifted TOI that boosted his stats, etc.

  62. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    McKenzie: Alex Petrovic is available

    https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/1003987163015467013

    The Oilers problem is NOT a lack of 3rd pairing D.

  63. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Kotkaniemi has been on such a heater in all the updated rankings, I can’t imagine him not going in the top 9 any longer.

    The Oilers may pass on Boquist after he falls given length of time from the NHL.

    If the Oilers get a chance and pass on Boqvist I will be very disapointed! But thats life!

  64. pts2pndr says:

    OmJo: I don’t get it either. People say he’s too old, he was gifted TOI that boosted his stats, etc.

    Numerous quotes say his footwork needs work as he get beat by speedy forwards on the outside! Skating shortcommings should be a red flag when projecting draft players to the NHL!

  65. godot10 says:

    OmJo: If you draft Smith you probably consider moving Klefbom for a RHD next season *after* he has a rebound year.

    But this is the Oilers, so drafting Smith means Oscar gets traded by the start of round 2.

    Ryan Ellis spent draft+1 and draft+2 in the CHL, and spent a full season in the AHL. Drafting Smith would be completely irrelevant the short to medium term future of Klefbom.

    Ty Smith’s expected arrival time is draft+4

  66. pts2pndr says:

    OmJo: If you wait until next summer (or even trade deadline) and let him rebound, you can get a substantial return for Klefbom. Top line winger? He’s young, has a good contract, and when healthy is a very good defenceman. Or throw something into the mix to get a top pairing RHD to replace him.

    Personally I’d rather keep Klefbom.

    Larsson cost was Taylor Hall! When you take a look at the cost of first pairing and or second pairing right shot D men the cost is exorbitant. Quality Right shot D are the gold standard! I realy like Klefbom but reality is even with his good contract you would be extremely lucky to get a right shot D that is equal to Benning straight up so what are you willing to add?

  67. Professor Q says:

    pts2pndr: Numerous quotes say his footwork needs work as he get beat by speedy forwards on the outside! Skating shortcommings should be a red flag when projecting draft players to the NHL!

    Except those quotes are highly mistaken.

  68. Truth says:

    pts2pndr: Please explain how a left shot D fits in the Oiler scenario. You have a log jam at this position! It is akin to buying the third Porsche, who the hell drives it and where do you park it when you only have a two car garage!

    The Oilers do not have a single Porsche on D. At most they have a new model Camaro. They should be selecting for the highest likelihood one of these turn into a Porsche, or better yet a Ferrari.

  69. Andy Dufresne says:

    texmex:
    Frank Seravalli

    Verified account

    @frank_seravalli3s3 seconds ago
    More
    #NYI announce GM Garth Snow and coach Doug Weight have been fired.

    Snow canned for the Eberletrade? ;p

    Called it a year ago.

    Chiarelli sent a poison pill to Garth Snow in retaliation for the Reinhart fiasco.

    Snow survived the DiPietro signing and the Thomas Vanek debacle, but one year of Jordan Eberle did him in…..Moo ha……MooooHaaaa…..MOOOOO HAHAHAHA!!!

  70. Andy Dufresne says:

    –hudson–:
    So Lou is the new GM while Snow and Weight are fired but remain with the organization.This is very Oilers-like.

    Lou Lamoriello.

    Whats that sound…….??

    Its the sound of Jordan Eberle…..shitting his pants.

  71. GMB3 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Called it a year ago.

    Chiarelli sent a poison pill to Garth Snow in retaliation for the Reinhart fiasco.

    Snow survived the DiPietro signing and the Thomas Vanek debacle, but one year of Jordan Eberle did him in…..Moo ha……MooooHaaaa…..MOOOOO HAHAHAHA!!!

    Imagine, the New York Islanders GM wins trades and get fired. In Edmonton the mouth breathing, glass banging “dohtards” think Chiarelli is the next coming of Sam Pollock.

  72. Jordan says:

    pts2pndr: Larsson cost was Taylor Hall! When you take a look at the cost of first pairing and or second pairing right shot D men the cost is exorbitant. Quality Right shot D are the gold standard! I realy like Klefbom but reality is even with his good contract you would be extremely lucky to get a right shot D that is equal to Benning straight up so what are you willing to add?

    What do you mean? That Jeff Petry guy was traded for a 2nd round pick.

    If the Oilers had a guy like him at RD, that would pretty much shore up 2RD.

    (am I doing it right)

  73. GMB3 says:

    Truth: The Oilers do not have a single Porsche on D.At most they have a new model Camaro.They should be selecting for the highest likelihood one of these turn into a Porsche, or better yet a Ferrari.

    Kris Russell is 100% the Ford Ranger of Dmen

  74. GMB3 says:

    Jordan: What do you mean?That Jeff Petry guy was traded for a 2nd round pick.

    If the Oilers had a guy like him at RD, that would pretty much shore up 2RD.

    (am I doing it right)

    Craig’s on it!

  75. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: I would take Dobson over Bouchard all day long! Skating is the numder one skill for all drafted players! When all else is equal skaiting is IMO the deciding factor!

    All else is not equal between those two, though. And Bouchard’s skating “issues” are overstated.

  76. Andy Dufresne says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Murray Pam
    @Pammerhockey
    Interesting comment from Filip Zadina pertaining to #Habs in @Michael_Traikos story: “Montreal, I know very well. I’ve been to the city many times and they’re fans are awesome. But I think they’re looking for a centre or a D.”
    5:21 AM · Jun 5, 2018

    At least some chance the Oilers move up to 3 or 6 this year.

    Ive seen statistical analysis that shows moving from 10 to 3 would probably have to include another mid to late first rounder………whereas moving from 10 to 6 is very doable for the cost of the Oilers second round pick (10 and 40 for 6)……and in fact may be doable giving up only the 3rd round pick…..10 & 71 for 6.

  77. Andy Dufresne says:

    pts2pndr: Please explain how a left shot D fits in the Oiler scenario. You have a log jam at this position! It is akin to buying the third Porsche, who the hell drives it and where do you park it when you only have a two car garage!

    You buy the third Porsche (hope it a 918 Spyder) and then trade the Oscar (Mayer Wienermobile) for a RHD (preferably Ryan Ellis)

  78. ArmchairGM says:

    Professor Q: Except those quotes are highly mistaken.

    It’s on the internet, it must be true!

  79. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne: At least some chance the Oilers move up to 3 or 6 this year.

    Ive seen statistical analysis that shows moving from 10 to 3 would probably have to include another mid to late first rounder………whereas moving from 10 to 6 is very doable for the cost of the Oilers second round pick (10 and 40 for 6)……and in fact may be doable giving up only the 3rd round pick…..10 & 71 for six.

    It is silly to try moving up. One is NOT getting a significantly different prospect at #6 than one will be getting at #10. The late rising centres, the Finn and the Greyhound, means #10 is fine spot to be in this draft.

  80. leadfarmer says:

    GMB3,

    I’m guesssing Snow got fired cause they felt they should have gotten more on the Reinhart trade 🤔

  81. Andy Dufresne says:

    godot10: It is silly to try moving up.One is NOT getting a significantly different prospect at #6 than one will be getting at #10.The late rising centres, the Finn and the Greyhound, means #10 is fine spot to be in this draft.

    ID give up 10 and 71 if it gets you Bouchard, Whalstrom or Dobson instead of Boqvist or Ty Smith.

  82. McSorley33 says:

    knighttown,

    I can see not choosing Boquist if you’re some of those other teams from 5-10 but this would be a dream scenario for the Oilers. Not only is he likely BPA but it’s a absolutely perfect match for positional and team need.

    An ultra-skilled defenseman was born to produce on the PP?

    He’s right-handed you say?

    Oh, he’s also the youngest of the top prospects and one of the youngest in the draft?

    The Oilers have plenty of defense-first young veteran LHD they can pair him with; Sekera on 3rd pairing in 2019 and then eventually with Nurse or Klef on pairing 2.

    I have him in a dead-heat with Zadina for #4 on my list FOR THE OILERS behind Dahlin, Svech and Hughes. You run, don’t walk to the podium.
    *******************************************************************************************
    Post of the day.

  83. Rondo says:

    McSorley33,

    I could see the Oilers taking Barrett Hayton

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: ID give up 10 and 71 if it gets you Bouchard, Whalstrom or Dobson instead of Boqvist or Ty Smith.

    Hmm, probably plenty of people who agree with you, but I’m not one. I wonder what Keith thinks?

    Boqvist is farther away from the NHL than Bouchard, but his ceiling is higher. I’ve said it before, if your draft outlook is “next three years” you’re doing it wrong.

  85. OmJo says:

    godot10: Ryan Ellis spent draft+1 and draft+2 in the CHL, and spent a full season in the AHL.Drafting Smith would be completely irrelevant the short to medium term future of Klefbom.

    Ty Smith’s expected arrival time is draft+4

    Maybe. We have an abundance of LD and if Nurse takes another leap forward next season? This is assuming the team is sold on the idea of trading Klefbom ofc.

    pts2pndr: Larsson cost was Taylor Hall! When you take a look at the cost of first pairing and or second pairing right shot D men the cost is exorbitant. Quality Right shot D are the gold standard! I realy like Klefbom but reality is even with his good contract you would be extremely lucky to get a right shot D that is equal to Benning straight up so what are you willing to add?

    That trade is an outlier and would never happen again in a million years. The price of a Larsson-calibre RHD is not Taylor Hall.

    Honestly I can’t tell you who could be coming back in a Klefbom trade, I haven’t followed the league too much since the end of February so not sure who’s available or not. But I’d expect a substantial return for Klefbom, even if it isn’t realistic.

  86. Spooky Lynx says:

    Craig Burton’s final rankings:

    https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-svechnikov-solidifies-hold-on-second-spot-1.1103996

    Interestingly, he has Hayton at 7 and Wahlstrom at 10.

    Mmmm, Wahlstrom at 10, *Homer Simpson gurgle*

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99:
    Let’s hope the Oilers are not blinded by the WHL. The OHL has proven that it is a tougher,stronger league over past years, we need the best player available. The current scouting staff appear to more cognizant of the talent in the other leagues. I am anxious to see how Benson progresses after an off season of being healthy to train properly for first time in a couple of seasons.

    This is an over-generalization.

    Thankfully they didn’t take the OHL kid, Sam Bennett, over the WHL kid, Leon Draisaitl, in 2014.

    I think Philly is pretty happy Proporov was available for them to take.

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would not be in favor of trading up to draft Kotkaniemi.

    From a high level, I think I’m only really on board with trading up if its a really large deal and we are getting the 2nd overall, Svechnikov (1st overall is unreasonable). I think Svechnikov is in a tier all by himself. The cost would be massive though – 10th, JP plus likely a decent prospect like Lagesson or Berglund or Benson. To expensive I think.

    I’m torn on this. IF scouts are sure Svechnikov is a special player, and you can trade picks and toss in a great prospect, is the team losing?

    Is one Hall worth more than two Eberle’s? I think so. It’s the game breakers that you want to get, the lesser players can be had outside of the draft, and far more players have the chance to be average NHLers.

    Whomever gets the best player wins the trade. The key is believing Svech is a tier above JP or Yama. I think he is but what do I know? I doubt that one of those two would do it. It would probably have to be a larger deal around Nuge, because all they lack is C and G.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – LT: thanks for the reminder of the “expected” outcome from drafting 10th

    – It’s normal to get excited about potential new toys.Maybe this is the year we get lucky again and end up with a really good selection like Klef or Eberle for a relatively later pick.

    – But its not good practice to set expectations that we will find the gem that is going to be bona-fide impact player. We are drafting 10th, and your historical numbers don’t lie

    – Hope for the best, but don’t project.Vor might add and optimize things with his holistic draft strategies, but its still a lot of time and luck and circumstance for all but the elite of the elite.

    * any interest in doing an off-season arm-chair GM contest again?i.e. who we draft, trades, starting roster, contracts, etc?I give a donation to LT on behalf of the winner?

    I thought your last one was great.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know that, while he’s a left shot D, Ty Smith has generally played the right side in Spokane and very successfully, obviously.

    The question I have is if we think he would be able to do so in the NHL where the game is so much faster and he’ll have much much less time to make plays?

    We know that, for the most part, a d-man playing his off side is less effective in transition. Of course, there are exceptions but they are rare.

    I’m not positive that he’d be right side D in the NHL – there are many things players can do in junior that aren’t do-able at the pro level.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: I don’t get it either. People say he’s too old, he was gifted TOI that boosted his stats, etc.

    The thing that impresses me about Bouchard is that he continued to produce at a high end pace after London sold at the deadline (traded away Thomas, etc.).

  92. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I know that, while he’s a left shot D, Ty Smith has generally played the right side in Spokane and very successfully, obviously.

    The question I have is if we think he would be able to do so in the NHL where the game is so much faster and he’ll have much much less time to make plays?

    We know that, for the most part, a d-man playing his off side is less effective in transition.Of course, there are exceptions but they are rare.

    I’m not positive that he’d be right side D in the NHL – there are many things players can do in junior that aren’t do-able at the pro level.

    I’m a Smith fan but the things I’ve read (including the Woodguy items) have convinced me that lefties should play left and vice versa.

  93. Rondo says:

    LT,

    What do you think of Barrett Hayton? Do you see him as a Sean Couturier type player well before this last season?

  94. godot10 says:

    Prediction: The Oilers will trade the #10OV pick

    I expect Oscar Klefbom, Jesse Puljujarvi, and the #10OV will be traded to Ottawa for Erik Karlsson.

  95. Someone says:

    While there’s always a chance we’re drafting a bust, history and percentages don’t give a good representation of the value of #10.

    While the guy picked #10 in lots of drafts don’t always pan out, have a look at the guys chosen 11-15. Names like Kopitar, Ellis, Fowler Karlsson forsberg etc. There’s pretty much always going to be a top 6/top 4 guy available, if not an elite player. There’s going to be a quality NHLer available, it’s up to our scouting staff to identify the player and have the courage of their convictions to choose their guy even if it’s deemed a reach. Do we trust them to do this?

  96. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    What do you think of Barrett Hayton? Do you see him as a Sean Couturier type player well before this last season?

    I like him in a range with Kotkaniemi and Farabee:

    http://lowetide.ca/2018/06/01/here-comes-the-sun-2018-final-edition/

    I like Olofsson a little better as the ‘two-way center’ but was convinced very late in the process that Hayton’s offense gives him the edge. I would not be disappointed with his being chosen No. 10. Hayton has a nice range of skills.

  97. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks

  98. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: It is silly to try moving up.One is NOT getting a significantly different prospect at #6 than one will be getting at #10.The late rising centres, the Finn and the Greyhound, means #10 is fine spot to be in this draft.

    Why is it silly if it gets you Wahlstrom. The price determines if it’s silly.

  99. Lowetide says:

    BREAKING (sirens, yelling, milling about) I am doing an AMA with @RedditOilers on Thursday June 14 at 4pm MST. Ask me anything at r/EdmontonOilers. I will be answering questions about the past and future! Seriously! ANY. THING.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide:
    BREAKING (sirens, yelling, milling about) I am doing an AMA with @RedditOilers on Thursday June 14 at 4pm MST. Ask me anything at r/EdmontonOilers. I will be answering questions about the past and future! Seriously! ANY. THING.

    Brave man.

  101. N64 says:

    Lowetide: . I will be answering questions about the past and future

    As an Oil fan I have to ask. Is there a difference?

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    pts2pndr: Please explain how a left shot D fits in the Oiler scenario. You have a log jam at this position! It is akin to buying the third Porsche, who the hell drives it and where do you park it when you only have a two car garage!

    It’s entirely possible that the only LHD on the roster in 3 years that is on the roster now is Nurse.

    It might even be probable.

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m wary of one way offense. Unless the player is unstoppable like Connor, you end up with problems because of the cap.

    Offense gets paid. Players that get paid have to be able to play toughs. It is becoming too hard to pay a guy 5M +, which escalates every year, and have to shelter him especially when those salary dollars are needed most, in the playoffs.

    We also know from WG and many looks into it that D mostly don’t drive current PPs. They contribute, but it’s mostly through puck movement.

    In this draft outside of Dahlin I’m liking the Canadian D. For me it’s Bouchard, Dobson, Smith. Strong two way games and all have good to great wheels. I ding Smith a bit because he is shorter, although not overly. I commented on Bouchard and skating previously but have read enough to put that to bed.l

    Boqvist concerns me because there is risk on the D side of his game, I think he’ll make it, but maybe as Schultz and I prefer Pietrangelo or Petry types for offensive D. Hughes as well isn’t a sure thing as a solid two way D in the NHL. Talent isn’t the entire story.

  104. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide:
    BREAKING (sirens, yelling, milling about) I am doing an AMA with @RedditOilers on Thursday June 14 at 4pm MST. Ask me anything at r/EdmontonOilers. I will be answering questions about the past and future! Seriously! ANY. THING.

    Oh my. So many questions…so little time.

  105. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: The thing that impresses me about Bouchard is that he continued to produce at a high end pace after London sold at the deadline (traded away Thomas, etc.).

    Thomas, Pu, Jones, Miletic, etc. for prospects and picks. All the games I saw of Bouchard were post-deadline, too. He was clearly above competition, even above star young forwards for the other teams (family names for current and former AHL/NHL players). And as I’ve always said, very good skating wise, even excellent in that regard. Both N-S and E-W (minor adjustments and rover-floating).

    A RHD with a decent point shot, good positioning skills, good leadership skills (by example, however; not vocal), plays LD as much as RD (and transitions between the two; rover and Ovechkinesque – positives and negatives for some and others I’m sure). A great prospect if somehow Edmonton could get him at 10.

  106. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Professor Q,

    By eye, what did you notice about his defense of zone entries?

    Fancy stats (from memory) show that he’s among (if not) the weakest of the D in the top-10 tier this draft year. I don’t hate Russell like some seem to, but one of the few things he does habitually that drives me bananas is rarely, if ever, contesting zone entries.

  107. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I’m wary of one way offense. Unless the player is unstoppable like Connor, you end up with problems because of the cap.

    Offense gets paid. Players that get paid have to be able to play toughs. It is becoming too hard to pay a guy 5M +, which escalates every year, and have to shelter him especially when those salary dollars are needed most, in the playoffs.

    We also know from WG and many looks into it that D mostly don’t drive current PPs. They contribute, but it’s mostly through puck movement.

    In this draft outside of Dahlin I’m liking the Canadian D. For me it’s Bouchard, Dobson, Smith. Strong two way games and all have good to great wheels. I ding Smith a bit because he is shorter, although not overly. I commented on Bouchard and skating previously but have read enough to put that to bed.l

    Boqvist concerns me because there is risk on the D side of his game, I think he’ll make it, but maybe as Schultz and I prefer Pietrangelo or Petry types for offensive D. Hughes as well isn’t a sure thing as a solid two way D in the NHL. Talent isn’t the entire story.

    I’m not a big Ty Smith guy but I thought defence was a real strength for him. Maybe I’m wrong.

  108. Professor Q says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I know that he was back quicker than his partner a few times (other times slower; especially if he was acting as the forward in the previous play(s) – whether by him doing the rush or by London’s scheme of rotating the F and D between all positions), and he did quite a few Larsson Redirections-Rub Outs. Those could still work in the NHL but obviously players will be bigger and stronger so he won’t be able to do it on strength alone (so the technique will useful, especially if improved). I don’t remember any pokechecks/steals by eye/memory. Was not afraid to hit either, but nothing “World Star”.

    I can’t recall any Russell Resets (he did transition from his own redline to the opponent’s end by himself a few times – not really successful at the end of those though), nor too many blocked shots.

    Didn’t really seem to be doing *too* much despite being the relied upon leader on a young and “lost” team in rebuild mode – perhaps how smooth or “calm and cool” he appears while doing his workhorse routine?

    Most of the games were scrappy (London had a talent purge, as above) and I do remember him being slewfooted, tripped, etc. In front and behind of his own net (not the only targeted Knight), but did keep his cool (I believe he did get into a fight the one game). Otherwise good at boxing out in front and behind his net, I guess “post-transition”?

  109. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: Hockey DB has Boqvist with 3 pts in 22 games this year playing with men. Does his 24 pts in 25 games in Sweden’s junior league carry that much weight?

    Yes, Boqvists numbers are from SuperElit and the equivalency factor I have for that league is 0.25, which is just below WHL’s 0.27 and QMJHL’s .284. He scored at a rate of 1.4 5-on-5 primary points per 60, which is the highest in the draft before adjusting for league. For example, Merkley scored at a rate of 0.89 in the OHL.

  110. rickithebear says:

    Zone entry analysis:
    I told you what the first question is.
    1. How many of our forwards and Off dmen are below the oppositions retrieval of the puck.
    Are we already chasing
    2. We’re we able to run a proper NZ trap
    Are the allowed to press the blue or forced to retreat
    3. If we yield the blue do the forwards in chase collapse to the edge of ld/hd zone
    Are the d allowed to fully defend the HD area.
    4. Has either of the dmen abandon the HD area to press the puck in a much less goal risk area.
    You will get varying zone entry baselines, Ca baselines, and Hd Save % baseline to measure players against.

    Do you guys know the expected standers and result route trees?

  111. Jaxon says:

    I’ve tried to come up with a Projected 5-on-5 Primary Points per Top 4 TOI for NHL D who jump right into the NHL from their draft season. This is what I came up with along with a few reference NHLers who’ve made the jump since 2008. There have only been 15 D to play more than 9 GP in their draft season since 2005 (13 years), so just over 1 per year. 3 years had none, 1 year had 4, 2 years had 2, and 1 year had Danny Syvret (Oilers called him up after injuries and he played 10 games after being drafted 81st overall in 2005)

    YEAR Name “AGE & ERA ADJ
    NHLE 5-on-5 P1
    @TOP4TOI” Pos
    2018 – RASMUS DAHLIN – 32.04 – LD
    2018 – QUINN HUGHES – 23.60 – LD
    2018 – JACOB RAGNARSSON – 20.20 – LD
    2008 – Zach Bogosian – 19.92 – RD
    2018 – ADAM BOQVIST – 19.87 – RD
    2009 – Dmitry Kulikov – 17.61 – LD
    2018 – RYAN MERKLEY – 16.29 – RD
    2018 – EVAN BOUCHARD – 15.64 – RD
    2018 – TY SMITH – 15.43 – LD
    2013 – Seth Jones – 14.56 – RD
    2018 – TY EMBERSON – 14.48 – RD
    2018 – AXEL ANDERSSON – 14.34 – RD
    2018 – FILIP KRAL – 13.58 – LD
    2018 – RASMUS SANDIN – 13.47 – LD
    2014 – Aaron Ekblad – 13.45 – RD
    2008 – Luke Schenn – 12.86 – RD
    2016 – Jakob Chycchrun – 12.80 – LD
    2018 – CALEN ADDISON – 12.32 – RD
    2018 – ALEXANDER ALEXEYEV – 11.81 – LD
    2018 – NOAH DOBSON – 11.52 – RD
    2018 – XAVIER BERNARD – 10.65 – LD
    2018 – NICOLAS BEAUDIN – 10.05 – LD
    2018 – JETT WOO – 10.02 – RD
    2008 – Drew Doughty – 9.77 – RD
    2018 – JARED MCISAAC – 8.48 – LD
    2018 – CARTER ROBERTSON – 7.82 – LD
    2018 – GIOVANNI VALLATI – 7.62 – LD
    2010 – Cam Fowler – 7.34 – LD

    Top right-handed D sorted by Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts:
    Adam Boqvist 20 (5’11.5″, 165lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #4 & #12
    Ryan Merkley 16 (5’11.25″, 168lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #10 & #47
    Evan Bouchard 16 (6’2″, 196lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #4 & #18
    Ty Emberson 14 (6’0.5″, 200lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #62 & #116
    Axel Andersson 14 (6’0″, 181lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #58 & #122
    Calen Addison 12 (5’10”, 178lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #18 & #58
    Noah Dobson 12 (6’3″, 177lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #6 & #20
    Jett Woo 10 (6’0″, 200lbs) – I’ve seen him ranked between #19 & #68

    Dahlin’s 32 is phenomenal. As a comparison here are some top forwards out of CHL and USHL
    2005 Sidney Crosby 48.18
    2015 Connor McDavid 44.02
    2018 Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
    2015 Mitchell Marner 37.49
    2015 Dylan Strome 36.80
    2014 Robby Fabbri 33.93
    2007 Patrick Kane 32.41
    2013 Nathan MacKinnon 30.49

  112. OmJo says:

    Lowetide:
    BREAKING (sirens, yelling, milling about) I am doing an AMA with @RedditOilers on Thursday June 14 at 4pm MST. Ask me anything at r/EdmontonOilers. I will be answering questions about the past and future! Seriously! ANY. THING.

    Hey that’s my birthday! Do I get a free bonus question?

  113. VOR says:

    I continue to believe Adam Boqvist is the worst fit for the Oilers of any of the top prospects.

    Boqvist is a great talent who plays a position (RD) at which the Oilers are weak. On the surface he sounds perfect.

    Red flag one – nearly every scouting report mentions how far away from NHL ready Boqvist is and that it will likely be D+3 one even D+4 before he is ready to contribute in the NHL. The Oilers aren’t that patient, not with top draft picks. This is a problem Boqvist shares with my best fit player Joel Farabee who is committed to Boston University. The thing is most scouts think Farabee is close to NHL ready right now.

    Red flag two – Boqvist is the consensus most likely to bust of any top prospect. Classic boom and bust player. The Oilers don’t have the prospect pool to take the risk on a bust. Farabee is the kid in this draft who consensus says is least likely to bust. Some scout described him as a Swiss Army Knife and it fits, he has many ways to make the NHL.

    Red flag three – Boqvist struggles with the defence part of the job. Trent Yawney can probably teach it to him. The problem is Boqvist isn’t near ready for NHL hockey. Best case he follows a career path like Berglund and then matriculates under Yawney or some one like him. There is near universal agreement that Farabee has NHL quality defence today.

    Red flag four – the game Boqvist plays is perfect for Mike Sullivan’s system. The Oilers reset not so much, well not at all. Farabee is both a tremendous back checker but also supports the puck carrier like few pros.

    Red flag five – we know the Oilers have a fetish for “good in the room” players. I personally think leadership of self and others can be learned and is wildly over rated among NHL GMs. Just as creativity tends to be undervalued. I can’t find the word leadership associated with Boqvist anywhere. Farabee of course wears the C for the US when it matters. Honestly, which player fits the Chiarelli leadership fetish the best?

    I want to be clear. I would draft Boqvist if he was there at 10 because he is an incredible talent. But I am not the GM of the Oilers. The GM of the Oilers should be allowing for fit and Boqvist is a terrible fit for the Oilers. The American, college bound, team captain, big goal scoring, “demonically” hard working, defensively NHL ready Farabee is like Chia and TMac’s love child.

    I know some of you think the Oilers have made major strides in patience, player development, and scouting. While I think a shift in priorities is underway the Oilers are far too early in that transition to take a chance on a boom or bust prospect like Boqvist. Or any other prospect who challenges their concept of what a hockey player “looks” like.

    For now it is better to acknowledge the prejudices that exist and pick the best “non-threatening” player.

  114. Lowetide says:

    OmJo: Hey that’s my birthday! Do I get a free bonus question?

    Yes!

  115. pts2pndr says:

    Truth: The Oilers do not have a single Porsche on D.At most they have a new model Camaro.They should be selecting for the highest likelihood one of these turn into a Porsche, or better yet a Ferrari.

    They have 4 top 4 left shot D. Klefbom,Nurse,Russel and Sekera. For sake of argumument they have 2 top 4 right shot D. Larsson and Benning. The balance in the AHL is at approx same ratio. Why would we want to make the ratio even more unbalanced?

  116. pts2pndr says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It’s entirely possible that the only LHD on the roster in 3 years that is on the roster now is Nurse.

    It might even be probable.

    While I do not disagree I feel with Lagesson, Jones and Samorokov we are still better off than we currently are on the right side. Left shot D are also easier to acquire. It is all a numbers thing in that with the holes we have elsewhere why would we continue to draft left shot D. The logic of this escapes me.

  117. pts2pndr says:

    VOR:
    I continue to believe Adam Boqvist is the worst fit for the Oilers of any of the top prospects.

    Boqvist is a great talent who plays a position (RD) at which the Oilers are weak. On the surface he sounds perfect.

    Red flag one – nearly every scouting report mentions how far away from NHL ready Boqvist is and that it will likely be D+3 one even D+4 before he is ready to contribute in the NHL. The Oilers aren’t that patient, not with top draft picks. This is a problem Boqvist shares with my best fit player Joel Farabee who is committed to Boston University. The thing is most scouts think Farabee is close to NHL ready right now.

    Red flag two – Boqvist is the consensus most likely to bust of any top prospect. Classic boom and bust player. The Oilers don’t have the prospect pool to take the risk on a bust. Farabee is the kid in this draft who consensus says is least likely to bust. Some scout described him as a Swiss Army Knife and it fits, he has many ways to make the NHL.

    Red flag three – Boqvist struggles with the defence part of the job. Trent Yawney can probably teach it to him. The problem is Boqvist isn’t near ready for NHL hockey. Best case he follows a career path like Berglund and then matriculates under Yawney or some one like him. There is near universal agreement that Farabee has NHL quality defence today.

    Red flag four – the game Boqvist plays is perfect for Mike Sullivan’s system. The Oilers reset not so much, well not at all. Farabee is both a tremendous back checker but also supports the puck carrier like few pros.

    Red flag five – we know the Oilers have a fetish for “good in the room” players. I personally think leadership of self and others can be learned and is wildly over rated among NHL GMs. Just as creativity tends to be undervalued. I can’t find the word leadership associated with Boqvist anywhere. Farabee of course wears the C for the US when it matters. Honestly, which player fits the Chiarelli leadership fetish the best?

    I want to be clear. I would draft Boqvist if he was there at 10 because he is an incredible talent. But I am not the GM of the Oilers. The GM of the Oilers should be allowing for fit and Boqvist is a terrible fit for the Oilers. The American, college bound, team captain, big goal scoring, “demonically” hard working, defensively NHL ready Farabee is like Chia and TMac’s love child.

    I know some of you think the Oilers have made major strides in patience, player development, and scouting. While I think a shift in priorities is underway the Oilers are far too early in that transition to take a chance on a boom or bust prospect like Boqvist. Or any other prospect who challenges their concept of what a hockey player “looks” like.

    For now it is better to acknowledge the prejudices that exist and pick the best “non-threatening” player.

    My experience in life has been satisfying the now with best available seems to always turn out penny wise and pound foolish. Quality over quick fix every time IMO!

  118. pts2pndr says:

    Truth: The Oilers do not have a single Porsche on D.At most they have a new model Camaro.They should be selecting for the highest likelihood one of these turn into a Porsche, or better yet a Ferrari.

    Given that Smith and Boqvist are at roughly the same skill level it would seem to make more sense to take the right shot D.

  119. OilSlickster says:

    if you could trade the #10 pick, Poolparty and Ostap Safin for the #2 pick and Martin Necas would you do it ?

  120. Professor Q says:

    OilSlickster:
    if you could trade the #10 pick, Poolparty and Ostap Safin for the #2 pick and Martin Necas would you do it ?

    It’s tempting. We *DO* need a new #14 on RW, afterall…

    However Safin and Necas could be the same, Puljujärvi and the 10 could end up being more valuable than Svechnikov when pooled together (pun intended).

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: They have 4top 4 left shot D. Klefbom,Nurse,Russel and Sekera. For sake of argumument they have 2top 4 right shot D. Larsson and Benning. The balance in the AHL is at approx same ratio. Why would we want to make the ratio even more unbalanced?

    I wish the Benning was solidified as an every day 2RD but he’s yet to prove himself in that role. I am hopeful he takes that next step this season (assuming we don’t fill the 2RD hole externally), however, to date, he has proven to be much more effective in a 3rd pairing role. One of the bets that didn’t work out last year was the bet that Benning could step up to the 2nd pairing.

    Here is hoping he can this coming season further removed from the concussion that seemed to hamper him mentally.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilSlickster:
    if you could trade the #10 pick, Poolparty and Ostap Safin for the #2 pick and Martin Necas would you do it ?

    Yes.

  123. ArmchairGM says:

    VOR,

    Your comparison of Boqvist with Farabee has got to be the strangest thing I have read in weeks.

  124. russ99 says:

    Kotkaniemi scares me a bit.

    Are we ready to draft another Finn high and expose him to the same rushed to the bigs than to the meat grinder in Bakersfield with no English classes for a year again?

    Not putting any faith in the organization getting this right other than lip service anytime soon..

  125. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    VOR,

    ArmchairGM:
    VOR,

    Your comparison of Boqvist with Farabee has got to be the strangest thing I have read in weeks.

    Yes. Comparing a Left shot LW to a Right Shot RD is very puzzling… those positions are opposite George…

  126. Professor Q says:

    russ99:
    Kotkaniemi scares me a bit.

    Are we ready to draft another Finn high and expose him to the same rushed to the bigs than to the meat grinder in Bakersfield with no English classes for a year again?

    Not putting any faith in the organization getting this right other than lip service anytime soon..

    Unless you draft all the Finns and have them speak Finnish and Swedish amongst each other.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Kotkaniemi scares me a bit.

    Are we ready to draft another Finn high and expose him to the same rushed to the bigs than to the meat grinder in Bakersfield with no English classes for a year again?

    Not putting any faith in the organization getting this right other than lip service anytime soon..

    I don’t think lack of English lessons will be a problem.

    https://www.nhl.com/video/combine–jesperi-kotkaniemi/t-277350912/c-60521803

    Jesse Puljijiarvi does not equate to Magnus Paajarvi because of their name and nationality and he does not equate to Kotkaniemi because of their size and nationality.

  128. hunter1909 says:

    russ99:
    Kotkaniemi scares me a bit.

    Are we ready to draft another Finn high and expose him to the same rushed to the bigs than to the meat grinder in Bakersfield with no English classes for a year again?

    Not putting any faith in the organization getting this right other than lip service anytime soon..

    No reason to have any faith in the Oilers “organisation”…

    They constantly fuck everything up, either this way, or that way, or some other way that no one can fathom until the deeds are done and dusted…

    They win the equivalent of Bobby Orr then destroy the chance of giving him a great team by handing out ridiculous contracts to no hopers…

    Maybe they put it together next season…probably they don’t…

    They will draft some poor sap then proceed to destroy him, just like they did to Rob freaking Schremp..

    The same dolts(Lowe+MacT) are still wielding tremendous power/influence…

    Oh well…

    Go Caps go! Win the next game and make me look like a genius!!

  129. who says:

    ArmchairGM:
    VOR,

    Your comparison of Boqvist with Farabee has got to be the strangest thing I have read in weeks.

    They do play very different positions but I think Vor is comparing player types and they are very different in that regard as well.
    Farabee is a polished North American winger with a wide range of skills who can step into an NHL lineup maybe a year from now.
    Boqvist is a raw European defenseman with some elite skills but some huge holes in his game and some injury history. He scares me a little. He could become Erik Karlson but he also could become Ryan Murphy.
    I would prefer the Oilers draft a safer pick. I don’t think they can afford to miss in this spot.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    That is quite opposite of the model we should be taking. If you are drafting for a guy that you expect to help in the next two years your are doomed to fail. History tells us that if a prospect taken at that number makes it and thats a big if they wont make it for a few years. Farabee probably tops out as a good 3rd line player maybe decent second line. You dont pick those guys at number 10. You can sign those players in the offseason. You go for the biggest upside each and every time.
    Adam Boqvist is almost a year younger than Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard. You must take that into consideration

  131. VOR says:

    I was comparing Farabee to Boqvist in terms of fit for the Oilers.

    Farabee because of his personality, his nationality, his evident leadership skill and his tremendous defensive chops will minimally get the Full Cagguila. Young Mr. Boqvist on the other hand will get the Full Jesse Puljujarvi.

    I wish this wasn’t so but the evidence is overwhelming and recent.

    Farabee fills multiple Oiler needs, left wing with a good chance of playing top 6, speedy, aggravating as crap to play against, great penalty killer, zero quit. He is not ranked as highly as Boqvist but the range is way tighter. Most ranking have him 8 to 12. His most common rating is 10. Thus my point about far fewer scouts thinking he could bust.

  132. Jaxon says:

    VOR: He is not ranked as highly as Boqvist but the range is way tighter. Most ranking have him 8 to 12. His most common rating is 10. Thus my point about far fewer scouts thinking he could bust.

    I think your facts are wrong. Of the 18 Rankings I’ve tracked Boqvist is higher and tighter.

    Farabee: 5,8,9,10,10,10,11,11,11,11,12,12,12,13,14,15,15,27
    Boqvist: 4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9,9,12

    Whose is tighter and who has the lowest potential for bust? I think by your argument, Farabee does.

    Also, when I was trying to isolate best producers of primary points and who takes those points with them to have a successful NHL career, there was one stat besides Primary Points / minute that eliminated players. That stat was 5-on-5 TOI. There is a noticeable line in the sand of around 13.75 minutes. That line takes many bust drafts out of the picture and leaves you with mostly stars. Farabee’s TOI was below that line by half a minute.

  133. VOR says:

    Jaxon,

    I agree that from your 18 samples Farabee has the widest range of rankings.

    I don’t think you would find that to be true if you expanded your data base.

    You seem very serious about this stuff and I appreciate what you have done to date. LT could you provide Jaxon with my direct contact info and I will share data with him if he is interested.

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