Smokin’ Aces

If you begin each poker game with an ace up your sleeve, you’ll play on through morning. If you lose with that ace up your sleeve, maybe poker isn’t for you. The Edmonton Oilers begin every offseason team-building conversation with the biggest trump in the deck. If you screw it up, it’s on you. That’s a fact.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your coffee. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

The article from whence this came is Terry Jones’ item here, please click on the link as it is within my 24-hour rule. I have a top 10 list of possible ‘one significant on-ice moves’:

  1. Oscar Klefbom is heading to Boston.
  2. The No. 10 overall pick is headed out of town
  3. Justin Faulk is an Oiler!
  4. Milan Lucic asked for a trade.
  5. Ryan Strome is being dealt
  6. Jesse Puljujarvi is being traded.
  7. Ryan O’Reilly, come on down, you’re an Oiler!
  8. My God, they’ve signed Ilya Kovalchuk Lennart Petrell
  9. There’s a player named Antus Pontberg and the Oilers have signed him!
  10. Marc Pouliot is coming back to the NHL!

The Condors signed five yesterday to AHL deals and there’s some nice talent here. Day is an intriguing defenseman, Polei has shown promise and Christoffer hangs around at the end of his entry deal. The other two players would appear to be ECHL regulars eligible for recall this coming season.

I’m a big fan of Button’s list, he delivers a unique and thoughtful list and has the courage of his convictions. If you’re an Oilers fan, you might want to have a very close look at the rankings. Here’s Edmonton’s list and Button’s rankings from one year ago.

Edmonton drafts five of Button’s top 90 picks, they all have fine seasons and are signed 12 months later. When was the last time the Oilers had the discipline to avoid walkabout through pick No. 146? Long time, if ever. Button had Edmonton’s 2016 draft mostly surrounded as well:

Once again the Oilers grab five of Button’s top 90, although in cock-eyed fashion and out of order (with a walkabout pick at No. 84). Perhaps that’s part of the discipline Keith Gretzky brings (trust your board, but drafting from second tier leagues should be reserved for the truly gifted until the CHL et cetera have been exhausted) to the group.

ULTIMATE TRUMP CARD

The Jones article suggests we’re going to see some action soon, that tells me we can expect news right after the Stanley Cup is over. We’ve discussed it forever, but the assets Peter Chiarelli could move out without getting someone to waive their NMC (Nuge, Klefbom, Puljujarvi, No. 10 overall) are bad ideas individually and cumulatively.

Trading two years of Jordan Eberle is not the same thing as trading five years of Oscar Klefbom, who is playing under a fabulous contract. If the Oilers go whale hunting, with the current depth chart and prospect pipeline, we’ll be talking about being top heavy and dealing Leon Draisaitl one year from now. This team needs value contracts in the $1 to $3 million dollar range, about six of them please and thanks. RFN.

I bet this is a player of interest for Edmonton. Not sure of the price and Florida is a different team (in terms of what they might be looking for) than they have been in the past, interesting opportunity.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are live from The Ranch this morning at the TSN1260 Annual Golf Tournament. It’s always a blast and we’ll give you the flavor of the day from 10-noon. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll chat about that Terry Jones item, and about possible targets for summer via trade, free agency and the draft.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. TSN1260’s World Cup coverage is just over one week away, Paul will handicap the pools and we’ll preview the Saturday round table (a massive World Cup show coming this weekend).
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. The Finals continue this evening, can Lebron will the Cavs to one victory and is it tonight? Plus Raptors coaching and the summer to come.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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211 Responses to "Smokin’ Aces"

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  1. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    The Big Trade can be won

    Erik Karlsson is the target…

    No insider information here just a gut feeling.

  2. hunter1909 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    The Big Trade can be won

    Erik Karlsson is the target…

    No insider information here just a gut feeling.

    This would be a great thing.

    Therefore, I have zero hope it’s going to happen.

    More like, they draft some 18 year old Scandinavian winger for “need”

  3. texmex says:

    BE AFRAID!!! BE VERY VERY AFRAID.

    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer
    20m20 minutes ago
    More
    I don’t see the Oilers moving the #10 overall pick for some immediate help.
    And don’t think EDM will be “chasing” pricier UFA’s.
    But.
    Could see the Oilers moving out a contract with term and getting a player who provides a different “ingredient” to the lineup

  4. SoxandOil says:

    What’s a realistic sweetener to package with Lucic to get a decent return. Assuming Edmonton cannot retain salary.

    Lucic + 2019 1st
    Or
    Lucic + Caleb Jones

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    Rasanen was a great pick at 153. We don’t talk about him much, but I think he is a material prospect. Hopefully he gets more TOI next year in BC – with top-6 minutes this kid will blossom.

  6. ArmchairGM says:

    From Dobber:

    July 2016 – Aapeli Räsänen is an interesting pick by the Edmonton Oilers. A two-way center that plays with great defensive awareness and can be trusted in key defensive roles. On the offensive side, he’s a player that possesses great vision, silky hands, and will look to move the puck before taking the shot. Räsänen is coming off of a successful season with the Tappara U20 team, where he finished 3rd on his team in scoring with 38 pts (19G-19A). He then topped off his season with a gold medal at the World U18’s where he represented Finland. He finished the tournament with 9 pts (3G-6A) and scored two crucial goals, including the game winner with 37 seconds left against the Americans to push Finland into the finals. At the draft Räsänen was taken 50-80 slots later then most scouts had him ranked. Räsänen will be tested this upcoming season on North American ice as he will suit up for the Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL. Brayden Sullivan

  7. Clarkenstein says:

    If you begin each poker game with an ace up your sleeve, you’ll play on through morning. If you lose with that ace up your sleeve, maybe poker isn’t for you. The Edmonton Oilers begin every offseason team-building conversation with the biggest trump in the deck. If you screw it up, it’s on you. That’s a fact

    Poetry LT, pure poetry!!

  8. dustrock says:

    texmex:
    BE AFRAID!!! BE VERY VERY AFRAID.

    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer20m20 minutes ago
    More
    I don’t see the Oilers moving the #10 overall pick for some immediate help.
    And don’t think EDM will be “chasing” pricier UFA’s.
    But.
    Could see the Oilers moving out a contract with term and getting a player who provides a different “ingredient” to the lineup

    So basically it’s going to be Klefbom for Krug, isn’t it?

  9. leadfarmer says:

    VOR:
    I was comparing Farabee to Boqvist in terms of fit for the Oilers.

    Farabee because of his personality, his nationality, his evident leadership skill and his tremendous defensive chops will minimally get the Full Cagguila. Young Mr. Boqvist on the other hand will get the Full Jesse Puljujarvi.

    I wish this wasn’t so but the evidence is overwhelming and recent.

    Farabee fills multiple Oiler needs, left wing with a good chance of playing top 6, speedy, aggravating as crap to play against, great penalty killer, zero quit. He is not ranked as highly as Boqvist but the range is way tighter. Most ranking have him 8 to 12. His most common rating is 10. Thus my point about far fewer scouts thinking he could bust.

    In terms of player evaluation
    Personality – Next to worthless unless the player is a completely toxic person
    Leadership skill- Next to worthless. More picks have been wasted on “good in the room guys” than almost any other personality trait
    Nationality – Really??? What year is it?
    Defensive Acumen – Thats pretty useful although defensive acumen in junior has a long way to go before being defensive acumen in NHL and probably cant be counted on for at least 5 years

    If Boqvist becomes the player he has the potential of becoming, you cannot acquire that player other than drafting. If Farabee reaches his potential you can still get that player type through trade or free agency.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    texmex,

    Salary cap to the rescue.

    Le Sigh

  11. jake70 says:

    Ha, if you blacken in McDavid’s helmet and shoulder pads you get sort of a Phil Collins – no jacket required album cover look. …..Sussudio…. wonder if Connor can sing too…

  12. dustrock says:

    jake70:
    Ha, if you blacken inMcDavid’s helmet and shoulder pads you get sort of a Phil Collins – no jacket required album cover look. …..Sussudio….wonder if Connor can sing too…

    su su sussudio. this made my day, thanks.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – LT I’ve posted this for the last few years. It’s a diversion for the summer: we all get to be arm-chair GM’s. Contest the off-season elaborate version of Hunters. Winner gets a donation to LT.

    Here is goes: a dozen questions for the off-season. I will take answers untill the draft:

    What will the Oilers do?:

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12

  14. PennersPancakes says:

    dustrock,

    The quote that scares me is from Nicholson

    “There’s a lot going on in Peter’s World right now. The next month is going to give us opportunity through the draft. What happens with the draft will be critical for what sets up through free agency on July 1″

    Given theres probably 3 players (Dahlin, Svech, and Zadina) who could jump into the NHL next season I wonder exactly what they mean by this. Could read it as a who knows anything could happen quote or I wonder if its a bigger sign June 22 could be wild.

    Oilers don’t have the cap space to do much in free agency so if this has any merit it seems like they will be moving picks (sweeten a lucic trade?) and/or players at the draft. I’m anxious reading this, what do you guys think?

  15. McSorley33 says:

    They will never admit it….but I bet even the mild PC supporters are a bit nervous of the Terry Jones article.

    One significant on ice move…..

    At least Garth is not on the other side of the phone…

  16. dustrock says:

    PennersPancakes:
    dustrock,

    The quote that scares me is from Nicholson

    “There’s a lot going on in Peter’s World right now. The next month is going to give us opportunity through the draft. What happens with the draft will be critical for what sets up through free agency on July 1″

    Given theres probably 3 players (Dahlin, Svech, and Zadina) who could jump into the NHL next season I wonder exactly what they mean by this. Could read it as a who knows anything could happen quote or I wonder if its a bigger sign June 22 could be wild.

    Oilers don’t have the cap space to do much in free agency so if this has any merit it seems like they will be moving picks (sweeten a lucic trade?) and/or players at the draft. I’m anxious reading this, what do you guys think?

    I mean, Chia might look at LHD and figure can’t move Sekera or Russell and need to sign Nurse, there’s your LHD for the next few years.

    Which is kinda why a Klefbom for Krug deal seems weird to me. Unless they want Russell bottom pairing RHD.

    But yeah, my first thought was “Lucic and the 10th for someone less cap-heavy”

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    texmex:
    BE AFRAID!!! BE VERY VERY AFRAID.

    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer20m20 minutes ago
    More
    I don’t see the Oilers moving the #10 overall pick for some immediate help.
    And don’t think EDM will be “chasing” pricier UFA’s.
    But.
    Could see the Oilers moving out a contract with term and getting a player who provides a different “ingredient” to the lineup

    Well what do we know and with what level of confidence.

    1) Players with term Klefbom Lucic Sekera Russell Its a short list Highest Probability Klefbom

    2) Chias statement “small moves only” could just be negotiating tactic …… doesntt want to appear overly eager Probability 50/50

    3) Nicholson consistently references RHD Probability 90%

    4) Stauffer….. “Player with term”…..brings a different “ingredient”…….RHD PP specialist?

    Highest Probability Klefbom for RH Offensive Defensman who can run the Powerplay

    Low Probability Sekera Waives

    Lower Probability Russell Waives (to go to the only other ALberta team)

    Lowest probability Lucic Waives

    Interesting comment from Nicholson:

    “There’s a lot going on in Peter’s World right now. The next month is going to give us opportunity through the draft. What happens with the draft will be critical for what sets up through free agency on July 1,” said Nicholson.

    Implies the pick will be made?…..and that SOMETHING will happen in free agency and that that something will depend on who/what position FW/C/D we get in the draft?

    So all together the NET totality implies

    One Significant trade that is probably already consumated
    One Draft Pick
    One Free Agent Signing….

  18. Cahoon says:

    I’ve been an Oilers fan for 25 years, if we trade Klefbom for Krug that might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in regards to my fandom.

  19. PennersPancakes says:

    dustrock,

    Trading out the 10th would be the short sighted move I can see Chia making to “save” his job.

    Maybe it will just be lesser prospects/late picks and the oilers can do the trade up game where you start with a pencil and end up with a bike.. or a slightly less awful pencil.

    Lucic -> Erikson -> Brouwer -> Panik

    Its a pipe dream but sometimes dreams come true

  20. Justthestatsman says:

    McSorley33:
    They will never admit it….but I bet even the mild PC supporters are a bit nervous of the Terry Jones article.

    One significant on ice move…..

    At least Garth is not on the other side of the phone…

    Except Garth is still on the NYI payroll. Maybe Lou’s new job description for him is “Special Assistant in Charge of Fleecing Pete”

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    This is a bit of a different kind of news article for me in that Jones makes a bold comment, but doesn’t back it up with a quote.

    Here what we have:

    The Oilers? There will be more changes, likely including one significant on ice move coming up shortly.

    “There’s a lot going on in Peter’s World right now. The next month is going to give us opportunity through the draft. What happens with the draft will be critical for what sets up through free agency on July 1,” said Nicholson.

    The quote does not support the preceding statement. Typically it would. If a reporter makes a statement as bold as he did, it’s unusual for the quote not to support that statement.

  22. Jordan says:

    So… here’s hoping Jones is trolling us.

    Unless Hextall has decided he’s willing to undo the Larsson – Hall trade, I don’t think I have any hope that a major trade will be good news for the Oilers.

    Here’s the top 10 worst possible assets that the Oilers could be moving out of town:

    10. Jesse Puljujaarvi (Young developing middle 6 W – trading him might be stupid)
    9. Cam Talbot (NHL Starting Goalie – trading him without a replacement would be stupid)
    8. Oscar Kelfbom (Young bonafide top 4 D – trading them is stupid)
    7. Darnell Nurse (Young bonafide top 4 D – trading them is stupid)
    6. 2019 1st Rounder (Expansion Draft Exempt – trading it is stupid)
    5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Young two way forward – trading them is really stupid)
    4. 2018 top 10 1st Rounder (Expansion Draft Exempt – trading it is really stupid)
    3. Adam Larsson (Young bonafide top 4 RD – trading them is really stupid)
    2. Leon Draisaitl (Young two way forward with game-breaking potential – trading them is incredibly stupid)
    1. Connor McDavid (Best game-breaker in the world – trading him would literally cause a riot)

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    SoxandOil:
    What’s a realistic sweetener to package with Lucic to get a decent return. Assuming Edmonton cannot retain salary.

    Lucic + 2019 1st
    Or
    Lucic + Caleb Jones

    Salary Dump….Lucic + 2019 1st ….to Arizona for Domi…..But I doubt even Arizona wants five years of Lucic contract…..Two years maybe….

  24. JimmyV1965 says:

    texmex:
    BE AFRAID!!! BE VERY VERY AFRAID.

    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer20m20 minutes ago
    More
    I don’t see the Oilers moving the #10 overall pick for some immediate help.
    And don’t think EDM will be “chasing” pricier UFA’s.
    But.
    Could see the Oilers moving out a contract with term and getting a player who provides a different “ingredient” to the lineup

    This scares me much more than the Jones article.

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965: This scares me much more than the Jones article.

    Most likely Klefbom for Krug

    Somewhat likely Klefbom for Tyson Barrie ( Sakic is a shrewd negotiator….Colorado operates on an internal cap constraint…..Klefbom contract would be highly valued )

    Least likely Nashville looking to shake things up (Klefbom for Ryan Ellis)

  26. McSorley33 says:

    Just speculating obviously…but how can you move out Klefbom after the injury filled season he struggled with?

    Can’t trade the young core members……

    Sekera or Looch or Russell?

    Has to be a salary dump

  27. texmex says:

    JimmyV1965: This scares me much more than the Jones article.

    Me too!!!

    I don’t believe Chia is willing to move a 24 year old Dman on a great contract. He needs to find a way to trade Sekera (I know – NMC) be it with a sweetener and/or salary retention of 25% or buy him out. Could that be the move Jones is referring to? The buyout period begins the later of June 15 or 48 hours after the Stanley Cup Final ends. So there’s that.

    If you’re Sekera, 31 years old with a reconstructed knee, why wouldn’t you waive your NMC for sunny warm Arizona? They are not much worse than the Oilers to be honest. I’d take sunny warm weather in February over -30C anyday.

    Just a thought

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    McSorley33:
    They will never admit it….but I bet even the mild PC supporters are a bit nervous of the Terry Jones article.

    One significant on ice move…..

    At least Garth is not on the other side of the phone…

    I like the way you put that……because I am exaclty that…..A “mild” PC supporter…Lukewarm…….and I am 50% nervous and 50% excited….

    Its in my nature to choose a pro-active GM over a patient GM…..side affect of the decade of darkness I suppose.

    Being 50/50 on Chia…..(I think hes a smart guy whose made at least couple of significant mistakes)…….this next 4 to 6 months will tell the tale for me. We’ either be a contender or we wont.

    The idea that a deal is imminent, and maybe already consumated, suggests that Chiarelli and his team have already done the due diligence….ahead of the pack….which is something that good GMs tend to do.

  29. PennersPancakes says:

    texmex,

    I would rather move the other 2 NMC first as Sekera is still a second pairing defenseman in my mind. Yes last year was a mess and hes probably still recovering but ACL/MCL surgery has advanced over the years where most athletes can make a full recovery.

    Sekera was mobile but never overly relied on his speed or agility so even if it only becomes 80-90% effective he is still an NHL player.

    I don’t know if you can say Lucic is still an NHL player in general anymore (over reaction maybe but last season was bad) and Russel could definitely still be a third pairing d man but handness and skill set isn’t a match.

  30. npanciroli says:

    Well I’m nervous.

  31. Andy Dufresne says:

    Just speculating obviously…but how can you move out Klefbom after the injury filled season he struggled with?
    McSorley33,

    I think its the reason that that “unusual shit” happened at the end of the season.

    THey played Klefbom injured all year…..then when they were officially eliminated from playoff contention they continued to play him…..as if to show other teams/GMs….look….his injury is not serious (ie. the type of injury for which there is little/no risk of increased injury severity due to playing)…..then once they established this they then shut him down prior to seasons end and made sure to announce that he was going for a “Minor Procedure”………JMO

    Chiarelli did not draft Klefbom.

  32. texmex says:

    npanciroli,

    I agree. But my logic is Sekera (+ sweetener) may actually bring back a valuable asset for the reasons you identified.

    A D core of (see blow) is pretty solid IMO. Who XXXXX is, I have no idea. Faulk? Pysyk?

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse XXXXX
    Russ Benning

  33. Andy Dufresne says:

    “There’s a lot going on in Peter’s World right now. The next month is going to give us opportunity through the draft. What happens with the draft will be critical for what sets up through free agency on July 1,” said Nicholson.

    If….IF…..all of this means that Klefbom is being moved for a RHD……I HOPE the corollary to this is that the Oilers are trying to move from 10 to 6 in the draft to get a Hughes or Bouchard who they feel can step into the lineup sooner rather than later.

  34. Brantford Boy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Kinger, can you clarify for #12… is this with the Oilers or NHL wide?

  35. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    hunter1909: This would be a great thing.

    Therefore, I have zero hope it’s going to happen.

    More like, they draft some 18 year old Scandinavian winger for “need”

    I honestly don’t think this is as crazy as some folks make it seem.

    Pierre Dorion spent several weeks following the Oilers around.

    Oscar Kelfbom gets shut down shortly thereafter.

    Erik Karlsson’s problems with the franchise are very real and I think its more likely than not the two sides have entered Chris Pronger June 2006 territory.

    Ottawa owns the 4th overall, they will get a good to very good prospect in that position. But they traded away their 2nd and 3rd rounders this year.

    The 10th overall plus Oscar is a very enticing deal for the flexibility it allows and it would allow their defensive group to be reset around Oscar’s age/experience bracket. Can Ottawa package the 4th and 10th to step up and grab #2? Would they even want to do that if the flip side is having Oscar and any two of Zadina/Hughes/Boqvist/Tkachuk/Kotkaniemi in their prospect pool?

    Now of course the major problem here is Karlsson’s extension, but that won’t kick in until 2019/2020 so there is a year to figure things out if it can’t get done immediately which means there is a year for Sekera/Looch/Russell to up their trade value.

    Stevie Y played the waiting game with Stamkos and it worked out for both sides. Erik Karlsson may want a reset and a chance to win Stanley Cups, does three months of him feeding passes to McDavid/Draisaitl while helping establish a PP clicking along at 30% entice him to stay? I’d think so but hey I’m an Oilers fan so the powers of self-delusion are real.

    Dare to dream says I dare to dream

  36. StixMalone says:

    Why in the world would Chia even think of trading with Boston? After the stunts they pulled, Boston should have a trade embargo slapped on them…..

  37. slopitch says:

    I like Klefbom but lets not pretend if the oilers moved him they did so after an injury plagued season. He’s only had one healthy season in his career.

    I like going all Swede on D. It would have to be JP + Sekera imo. But I dunno. Its all speculation.

  38. Andy Dufresne says:

    Tory Krug in his 24, 25 and 26 yr old seasons

    2015-2016 Boston Bruins NHL 81 4 40 44
    2016-2017 Boston Bruins NHL 81 8 43 51
    2017-2018 Boston Bruins NHL 76 14 45 59 | Playoffs 11 3 9 12

    Pretty consistent growth and health…..

    Erik Karlsson
    2017-2018 Ottawa Senators NHL 71 9 53 62

    Cherry picking here, slightly down year for Karlsson…..but Krug scored more goals and was close in points……I get that Karlsson is CLEARLY the superior player……but if your cap structure makes Karlsson at $10m cost prohibitive……Krug looks alot like a poor mans Karlsson…at $5.25m AVV

  39. Andy Dufresne says:

    Has anyone seen an analytics based comparison of Krug and Klefbom?

  40. Brantford Boy says:

    Kinger:

    1) Joel Farabee (sigh)
    2) 8*4.75
    3) 2*1.65
    4) 3*2.75
    5) Bear
    6) No
    7) Draisaitl
    8) Strome
    9) Marody
    10) Klefbom / Barrie
    11) 2; Kelfbom
    12) Oilers – Michael Grabner (NHL – Tavares)

  41. Jordan says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Has anyone seen an analytics based comparison of Krug and Klefbom?

    *Loudspeaker crackles on*

    Woodguy, please report to the analytics desk. Woodguy to the analytics desk.

    *Loudspeaker clicks off*

  42. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Most likelyKlefbom for Krug

    Somewhat likelyKlefbom for Tyson Barrie ( Sakic is a shrewd negotiator….Colorado operates on an internal cap constraint…..Klefbom contract would be highly valued )

    Least likelyNashville looking to shake things up (Klefbom for Ryan Ellis)

    From what I read earlier this spring, the Preds would like to move Subban. The verbal was he took up too much oxygen in the dressing room.

  43. --hudson-- says:

    What sticks out to me is Nicholson’s mention of free agency. If you marry this with Chiarellis comments on the bottom 6 and tweaking the D, this sounds more like a Ryan Strome or Matt Benning trade. A trade to open up the opportunity and cap $ to sign a Derek Ryan or a Riley Nash. Something like Montreal’s 2nd for Strome depending on who drops.

    Trading Klefbom is a big trade in my opinion, not the quiet summer that Chiarelli has talked about previously. Although I guess you could argue a Klefbom for Krug trade is a small tweak given the perceived difference in talent.

  44. PennersPancakes says:

    –hudson–,

    Awe man can you imagine if last summer Eberle was traded for a second round pick. Sunk cost etc. etc. but this would sting moving Strome. Would also be cautious banking on players coming off career years again too (Nash and Ryan).

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Tory Krug in his 24, 25 and 26 yr old seasons

    2015-2016Boston BruinsNHL81440442016-2017Boston BruinsNHL81843512017-2018Boston BruinsNHL76144559|Playoffs113912

    Pretty consistent growth and health…..

    Erik Karlsson
    2017-2018Ottawa SenatorsNHL7195362

    Cherry picking here, slightly down year for Karlsson…..but Krug scored more goals and was close in points……I get that Karlsson is CLEARLY the superior player……but if your cap structure makes Karlsson at $10m cost prohibitive……Krug looks alot like a poor mans Karlsson…at $5.25m AVV

    As a dman, Karlsson has led his team in scoring five years in a row, one year by 20 pts and another year by 10 pts. When was the last time this happened? I can’t even speculate. Bobby Orr maybe. Krug isn’t even close to Karlsson.

  46. --hudson-- says:

    Jordan: *Loudspeaker crackles on*

    Woodguy, please report to the analytics desk.Woodguy to the analytics desk.

    *Loudspeaker clicks off*

    I think he did this about a week ago. Krug seems a downgrade from Klefbom at ES but an upgrade on the power play iirc. One other note is Krug broke his ankle at the end of the playoffs, believe it was a fairly short term injury though and he could be healed by now.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    –hudson–:
    What sticks out to me is Nicholson’s mention of free agency.If you marry this with Chiarellis comments on the bottom 6 and tweaking the D, this sounds more like a Ryan Strome or Matt Benning trade.A trade to open up the opportunity and cap $ to sign a Derek Ryan or a Riley Nash.Something like Montreal’s 2nd for Strome depending on who drops.

    Trading Klefbom is a big trade in my opinion, not the quiet summer that Chiarelli has talked about previously.Although I guess you could argue a Klefbom for Krug trade is a small tweak given the perceived difference in talent.

    I don’t t know. Is any GM opening up cap space to sign Ryan or Nash? They’re both UFAs you sign in the second week of free agency.

  48. deardylan says:

    Reading Maple Leaf summer predictions and how it connects to Oilers…

    5. The Leafs do not enter into the Tavares sweepstakes. He is instead signed to the Oilers after they trade two first round picks to the Arizona Coyotes to take on the remainder of Milan Lucic’s deal.

    Is this just fantasy?

  49. deardylan says:

    Jordan: *Loudspeaker crackles on*

    Woodguy, please report to the analytics desk.Woodguy to the analytics desk.

    *Loudspeaker clicks off*

    +1

  50. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1) Bouchard (move up to 6th pick)
    2) 2 yrs $2.75m AVV
    3) 2 yrs $1.5m AVV
    4) 2 yrs $2.5m AVV
    5) NO
    6) NO
    7) Draisaitl
    8) Draisaitl
    9) Strome
    10) Klefbom Tyson Barrie
    11) Three Trades: Klefbom for Tyson Barrie; Nuge+ for Ryan O’rielly; Pick or Prospect for Josh Leivo
    12) Derek Ryan

  51. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – LT I’ve posted this for the last few years.It’s a diversion for the summer: we all get to be arm-chair GM’s.Contest the off-season elaborate version of Hunters.Winner gets a donation to LT.

    Here is goes: a dozen questions for the off-season.I will take answers untill the draft:

    What will the Oilers do?:

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    I have no idea what PC will do, but here’s what I think he SHOULD do:

    1) Kotkaniemi (based on McKenzie’s list here: https://www.tsn.ca/the-big-four-solidify-spots-in-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1066345 – obviously this depends on who is available)
    2) 2 x $3.1M (he’ll need to get rid of a Russell or a Sekera during this 2 year window)
    3) 3 x $1.875M
    4) 3 x $2.75M
    5) Yamamoto, possibly Brad Malone
    6) Yes, Garth Snow
    7) Strome
    8) Draisaitl
    9) Strome
    10) None will be missing
    11) Two, Kassian
    12) Antoine Vermette

  52. Andy Dufresne says:

    From an anonomous poster (ChaoticOrange) at HF Boards

    Let’s look at this B’s roster and who was the GM when the player was acquired. The interesting time is the 2006 draft, when Chiarelli’s hiring was official but he was likely working closely with Gorton.

    list of GMs –

    Mike O’Connell : Nov 1 2000 – end March 2006
    Jeff Gorton : March 25 – May 26, 2006
    Peter Chiarelli : May 26 2006 – April 15 2015
    Don Sweeney : May 20 2015 – Current

    Rask – Jeff Gorton (trade)
    Khudobin – Peter Chiarelli (trade), Don Sweeney (FA)

    David Pastrnak – Peter Chiarelli (Draft)
    Brad Marchand – Peter Chiarelli (Draft) / Jeff Gorton
    Patrice Bergeron – Mike O’Connell (Draft)
    Torey Krug – Peter Chiarelli (College FA)
    David Krejci – Mike O’Connell (Draft)
    Jake DeBrusk – Don Sweeney (Draft)
    Sean Kuraly – Don Sweeney (Trade)
    David Backes – Don Sweeney (FA Signing)
    Kevan Miller – Peter Chiarelli (College FA)
    Charlie McAvoy – Don Sweeney (Draft)
    Rick Nash – Don Sweeney (Trade)
    Zdeno Chara – Peter Chiarelli (FA Signing, July 1st)
    Ryan Donato – Peter Chiarelli (Draft)
    Tommy Wingels – Don Sweeney (Trade)
    Matt Grzelcyk – Peter Chiarelli (Draft)
    Adam McQuaid – Peter Chiarelli (Trade)
    Tim Schaller – Don Sweeney (FA Signing)
    Danton Heinen – Peter Chiarelli (Draft)
    Noel Acciari – Don Sweeney (College FA)

    Riley Nash (Sweeney), Czarnik (Chiarelli), Bjork (Chiarelli), Carlo (Sweeney) and geezers like Holden and Gionta are all in the mix too but haven’t played in the playoffs.

    Final tally:

    Peter Chiarelli – 11 players (full or partial credit)
    Don Sweeney – 10 players
    Mike O’Connell – 2 players
    Jeff Gorton – 2 players

  53. godot10 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    The Big Trade can be won

    Erik Karlsson is the target…

    No insider information here just a gut feeling.

    That is what I’m predicting** too.

    Klefbom, Puljujarvi, and #10OV for Karlsson.

    **predicting does NOT mean I support or advocate the trade.

  54. godot10 says:

    SoxandOil:
    What’s a realistic sweetener to package with Lucic to get a decent return. Assuming Edmonton cannot retain salary.

    Lucic + 2019 1st
    Or
    Lucic + Caleb Jones

    Lucic has massive negative value. To get rid of him, you would have to package him with McDavid or Draisaitl.

  55. Jaxon says:

    leadfarmer: VOR:
    I was comparing Farabee to Boqvist in terms of fit for the Oilers.

    Farabee because of his personality, his nationality, his evident leadership skill and his tremendous defensive chops will minimally get the Full Cagguila. Young Mr. Boqvist on the other hand will get the Full Jesse Puljujarvi.

    I wish this wasn’t so but the evidence is overwhelming and recent.

    Farabee fills multiple Oiler needs, left wing with a good chance of playing top 6, speedy, aggravating as crap to play against, great penalty killer, zero quit. He is not ranked as highly as Boqvist but the range is way tighter. Most ranking have him 8 to 12. His most common rating is 10. Thus my point about far fewer scouts thinking he could bust.

    leadfarmer,

    VOR, I think your facts are wrong. Of the 18 Rankings I’ve tracked Boqvist is higher and tighter.

    Farabee: 5,8,9,10,10,10,11,11,11,11,12,12,12,13,14,15,15,27
    Boqvist: 4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9,9,12

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

    Who is ranked higher and tighter and therefore (by your own argument) has the lowest potential for bust? I think by your argument, Boqvist does.
    Who is ranked lower and has more variance and therefore (by your own argument) more potential for bust? I think by your argument, Farabee does.

    Also, when I was trying to isolate best producers of primary points and who takes those points with them to have a successful NHL career, there was one stat besides Primary Points / minute that eliminated players. That stat was 5-on-5 TOI. There is a noticeable line in the sand of around 13.75 minutes. That line takes many bust drafts out of the picture and leaves you with mostly stars. Farabee’s TOI was below that line by half a minute.

    TOP Players with Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts above 25.75 , and 5-on-5 TOI ABOVE 13.74 (CHL since 2005, and USHL since 2016).
    YEAR Name “AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP6TOI”
    2005 Sidney Crosby 48.18
    2015 Connor McDavid 44.02
    2018 Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
    2015 Mitchell Marner 37.49
    2015 Dylan Strome 36.80
    2014 Robby Fabbri 33.93
    2007 Patrick Kane 32.41
    2013 Nathan MacKinnon 30.49
    2014 Sam Bennett 30.15
    2014 Spencer Watson 30.10
    2010 Taylor Hall 29.83
    2013 Nicolas Petan 29.48
    2016 Pierre-Luc Dubois 29.43
    2016 Alex DeBrincat 29.20
    2016 Cameron Morrison 29.13
    2016 Adam Mascherin 29.04
    2008 Steven Stamkos 28.87
    2009 Scott Glennie 28.83
    2018 Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79
    2013 Jonathan Drouin 28.62
    2010 Tyler Seguin 28.53
    2011 Ryan Strome 28.11
    2006 Chris Stewart 28.11
    2009 Evander Kane 28.10
    2005 Bobby Ryan 28.02
    2017 Owen Tippett 27.81
    2018 Jonathan Gruden 27.62
    2017 Nick Suzuki 26.98
    2009 John Tavares 26.74
    2010 Tyler Toffoli 26.72
    2014 Nick Ritchie 26.42
    2014 Nikolaj Ehlers 26.06
    2008 Tyler Ennis 26.04
    2014 Leon Draisaitl 25.93

    TOP 34 Players with Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts above 25.75 , and 5-on-5 TOI BELOW 13.74 (CHL since 2005, and USHL since 2016).
    YEAR Name “AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP6TOI”
    2008 Eric O’Dell 34.43
    2018 Joel Farabee 32.23
    2007 Sam Gagner 32.22
    2006 Bobby Hughes 30.95
    2006 Riley Holzapfel 30.48
    2013 Oliver Bjorkstrand 29.14
    2006 John Hughes 28.95
    2015 Zachary Senyshyn 28.68
    2014 Andrew Mangiapane 28.45
    2007 Stefan Legein 28.20
    2017 Jacob Tortora 27.85
    2010 Justin Shugg 27.73
    2007 Dale Mitchell 27.72
    2008 Greg Nemisz 27.66
    2005 Devin Setoguchi 27.02
    2015 Blake Speers 26.97
    2006 Codey Burki 26.69
    2017 Ivan Lodnia 26.48
    2005 Daniel Ryder 26.44
    2010 Austin Watson 26.07
    2013 Max Domi 26.01

    There is a lot of questionable prospects on that second list even though their junior numbers were astronomical. It’s quite damning to be on the second list. Even the ones who made the NHL have been plagued with character and consistency questions for most of their career.

    I’ll give you that there are always outliers but it is a very real red flag in my opinion.

  56. Primetime says:

    JimmyV1965: From what I read earlier this spring, the Preds would like to move Subban. The verbal was he took up too much oxygen in the dressing room.

    I read the same.

    I think Nashville/Poile is easily the most disappointed team/GM about how their year ended. They should have won the Cup, let alone just getting to finals. As level-headed as Poile is, he may be prone to a knee jerk reaction. Even if he remains calm…if he can sign Ellis to a longterm contract at anything less than $6 mill/year, isn’t it smarter to do that and trade Subban in the long-term cap situation? Ellis is not going to get anything near Subban, but may actually be more effective on the ice, so why get rid of him? And does Poile factor in the Weber recapture penalties in his calculations (it’s ugly).

    Not sure what they would take for PK though. Would have to take some salary (Sekera?) and the 10th overall (draft a RHD to replace PK at some point).? Now in reality they lost to a big, fast, skilled team (Jets) and the ideal piece he is missing is one Leon Draisatl…straight across for Subban?

    LOL…if Subban got traded for our big, skilled center, the streets would burn….in MONTREAL!

  57. Andy Dufresne says:

    Austin Mathews changes Agents……Moves to the Orr Group……..

    Likes the deal McDavid got???

  58. godot10 says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:

    The 10th overall plus Oscar is a very enticing deal for the flexibility it allows and it would allow their defensive group to be reset around Oscar’s age/experience bracket. Can Ottawa package the 4th and 10th to step up and grab #2? Would they even want to do that if the flip side is having Oscar and any two of Zadina/Hughes/Boqvist/Tkachuk/Kotkaniemi in their prospect pool?

    I think Ottawa would try to use the #10OV they get from the OIlers in a Karlsson deal to try to get back their 2019 #1 OV from Colorado.

  59. Andy Dufresne says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Tory Krug in his 24, 25 and 26 yr old seasons

    2015-2016Boston BruinsNHL81440442016-2017Boston BruinsNHL81843512017-2018Boston BruinsNHL76144559|Playoffs113912

    Pretty consistent growth and health…..

    Erik Karlsson
    2017-2018Ottawa SenatorsNHL7195362

    Cherry picking here, slightly down year for Karlsson…..but Krug scored more goals and was close in points……I get that Karlsson is CLEARLY the superior player……but if your cap structure makes Karlsson at $10m cost prohibitive……Krug looks alot like a poor mans Karlsson…at $5.25m AVV

    Adding PK Subban into the mix

    2015-2016 Montréal Canadiens 68 6 45 51
    2016-2017 Nashville Predators NHL 66 10 30 40 | Playoffs 22 2 10 12
    2017-2018 Nashville Predators NHL 82 16 43 59 | Playoffs 13 4 5 9 1

    Torey Krug has better boxcars and health than PK Subban. Krug is two years younger and $3.75m less AVV

    Still think its going to be Klefbom for Tyson Barrie.

  60. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Tory Krug in his 24, 25 and 26 yr old seasons

    2015-2016Boston BruinsNHL81440442016-2017Boston BruinsNHL81843512017-2018Boston BruinsNHL76144559|Playoffs113912

    Pretty consistent growth and health…..

    Erik Karlsson
    2017-2018Ottawa SenatorsNHL7195362

    Cherry picking here, slightly down year for Karlsson…..but Krug scored more goals and was close in points……I get that Karlsson is CLEARLY the superior player……but if your cap structure makes Karlsson at $10m cost prohibitive……Krug looks alot like a poor mans Karlsson…at $5.25m AVV

    Woodguy has proven/shown that Krug is being protected by playing behind Chara, and that he is really only a left shot Justin Schultz…a 3rd pairing offensive D.

  61. Rondo says:

    What about Klefbom for Ristolainen ?

  62. Primetime says:

    godot10: I think Ottawa would try to use the #10OV they get from the OIlers in a Karlsson deal to try to get back their 2019 #1 OV from Colorado.

    No way Sakic does that…that 2019 Ottawa 1st rounder is a lottery ticket to Hughes…I was shocked Ottawa didn’t give up their first rounder this year…they must really love someone at #4…

  63. Primetime says:

    Rondo:
    What about Klefbom forRistolainen ?

    This always gets brought up…Buffalo is about to draft a generational LHD…why give up their best RHD? For Klefbom to provide Dahlin cover for half a season?

  64. Ari says:

    Jordan,

    Talbot only has a year left on his contract and may have some value, despite this lost season. He’ll be 31 though. You’re right, without a replacement, this is dangerous. I suppose they can throw money at Grubauer, but can we trust Chia to do that?

  65. sumaclab says:

    The Oilers trade a 3rd round pick to the Islanders for the rights to John Tavares. Oilers sign JT. To Carolina Leon Draisatl. The Oilers get 2cd overall Noah Hanafin and next years 1st round pick.

  66. --hudson-- says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t t know. Is any GM opening up cap space to sign Ryan or Nash? They’re both UFAs you sign in the second week of free agency.

    In trying to infer the meaning of what Nicholson’s quote means… the Oilers would have to open up cap space to sign those players since we are so tight to the cap. Definitely don’t think it’s a wise move, unless a really nice player drops to a pick we could obtain for Strome or one of the other bottom 6 players.

  67. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: leadfarmer,

    VOR, I think your facts are wrong. Of the 18 Rankings I’ve tracked Boqvist is higher and tighter.

    Farabee: 5,8,9,10,10,10,11,11,11,11,12,12,12,13,14,15,15,27
    Boqvist: 4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9,9,12

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

    Who is ranked higher and tighter and therefore (by your own argument) has the lowest potential for bust? I think by your argument, Boqvist does.
    Who is ranked lower and has more variance and therefore (by your own argument) more potential for bust?I think by your argument, Farabee does.

    Also, when I was trying to isolate best producers of primary points and who takes those points with them to have a successful NHL career, there was one stat besides Primary Points / minute that eliminated players. That stat was 5-on-5 TOI. There is a noticeable line in the sand of around 13.75 minutes. That line takes many bust drafts out of the picture and leaves you with mostly stars. Farabee’s TOI was below that line by half a minute.

    TOP Players with Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts above 25.75 , and 5-on-5 TOI ABOVE 13.74 (CHL since 2005, and USHL since 2016).
    YEARName“AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP6TOI”
    2005Sidney Crosby48.18
    2015Connor McDavid44.02
    2018Andrei Svechnikov38.80
    2015Mitchell Marner37.49
    2015Dylan Strome36.80
    2014Robby Fabbri33.93
    2007Patrick Kane32.41
    2013Nathan MacKinnon30.49
    2014Sam Bennett30.15
    2014Spencer Watson30.10
    2010Taylor Hall29.83
    2013Nicolas Petan29.48
    2016Pierre-Luc Dubois29.43
    2016Alex DeBrincat29.20
    2016Cameron Morrison29.13
    2016Adam Mascherin29.04
    2008Steven Stamkos28.87
    2009Scott Glennie28.83
    2018Oliver Wahlstrom28.79
    2013Jonathan Drouin28.62
    2010Tyler Seguin28.53
    2011Ryan Strome28.11
    2006Chris Stewart28.11
    2009Evander Kane28.10
    2005Bobby Ryan28.02
    2017Owen Tippett27.81
    2018Jonathan Gruden27.62
    2017Nick Suzuki26.98
    2009John Tavares26.74
    2010TylerToffoli26.72
    2014NickRitchie26.42
    2014Nikolaj Ehlers26.06
    2008Tyler Ennis26.04
    2014LeonDraisaitl25.93

    TOP 34 Players with Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts above 25.75 , and 5-on-5 TOI BELOW 13.74 (CHL since 2005, and USHL since 2016).
    YEARName“AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP6TOI”
    2008Eric O’Dell34.43
    2018Joel Farabee32.23
    2007Sam Gagner32.22
    2006Bobby Hughes30.95
    2006Riley Holzapfel30.48
    2013Oliver Bjorkstrand29.14
    2006John Hughes28.95
    2015Zachary Senyshyn28.68
    2014Andrew Mangiapane28.45
    2007Stefan Legein28.20
    2017Jacob Tortora27.85
    2010Justin Shugg27.73
    2007Dale Mitchell27.72
    2008Greg Nemisz27.66
    2005Devin Setoguchi27.02
    2015Blake Speers26.97
    2006Codey Burki26.69
    2017Ivan Lodnia26.48
    2005Daniel Ryder26.44
    2010Austin Watson26.07
    2013Max Domi26.01

    There is a lot of questionable prospects on that second list even though their junior numbers were astronomical. It’s quite damning to be on the second list. Even the ones who made the NHL have been plagued with character and consistency questions for most of their career.

    I’ll give you that there are always outliers but it is a very real red flag in my opinion.

    Awesome work, your’s is a phenomenal resource. Have you listed all the 2018 eligibles in this manner too?

    Also, re: Farabee – while I don’t doubt that he’s a gifted hockey player, any time I see a guy playing with two of the top-10 U18 players in the world (seat-of-the-pants-o-meter), I immediately cut his results in about half. Does anybody look at Ty Rattie and think he’s suddenly a legit 1RW? No way is Farabee driving the play there, not saying he’s not skilled but he’s certainly benefitting from two players who are clearly better than he is.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Andy Dufresne: Adding PK Subban into the mix

    2015-2016Montréal Canadiens68645512016-2017Nashville PredatorsNHL66103040|Playoffs22210122017-2018Nashville PredatorsNHL82164359|Playoffs134591

    Torey Krug has better boxcars and health than PK Subban.Krug is two years younger and $3.75m less AVV

    Still think its going to be Klefbom for Tyson Barrie.

    Boxcars only tell half the story though. How much does the opposition score when these players are on the ice? What about ice-time? Line-mates? PP time?

  69. Bling says:

    The list of moveable contracts with term is pretty short, and you can cross Nuge/McDavid/Larsson/Draisaitl off the list.

    Which leaves Klefbom.

    If the solution to your problems is trading away a guy like Klefbom…I don’t know what to say. That is madness.

    Chia has to find a way to restrain himself. Have we all forgotten about Jeff Petry already?

    This team’s management is like the Alzheimer’s patient with fleeting moments of lucidity. All that common sense sounding talk is out the window now, we’re back in crazy town.

  70. --hudson-- says:

    PennersPancakes:
    –hudson–,

    Awe man can you imagine if last summer Eberle was traded for a second round pick. Sunk cost etc. etc. but this would sting moving Strome. Would also be cautious banking on players coming off career years again too (Nash and Ryan).

    Agreed, the Eberle trade was lost value but it’s in the past. Montreal has 4 second round picks this year and 3 fourth round picks (including the Oilers from the Montoya trade). If Calen Addison or another coveted player drops down to their pick, in a years time we might not be missing Strome at all.

    There’s lots of risk in the move though. I believe Original Pouzar mentioned Strome was part of the PK turn around and he was looking comfortable at 3C. Additionally the free agency window doesn’t open until after the draft so the Oilers would be making a trade before knowing if any of the free agents are interested in coming over at a decent price.

    One other possible Strome replacement could be Tyler Bozak.

  71. --hudson-- says:
  72. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: Woodguy has proven/shown that Krug isbeing protected by playing behind Chara, and that he is really only a left shot Justin Schultz…a 3rd pairing offensive D.

    And Klefbom has been protected by Larsson.
    The GF percentage difference in the last two year on 5 v 5 (meaning Larsson without Klef – Klef without Larsson) is a very steady 15% each year.
    Both have serious defensive issues and need to play with a Adam Larsson to be effective

  73. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    sumaclab:
    The Oilers trade a 3rd round pick to the Islanders for the rights to John Tavares. Oilers sign JT. To Carolina Leon Draisatl. The Oilers get 2cd overall Noah Hanafin and next years 1st round pick.

    Man… that would be the holy crap moment of the summer! I honestly would not mind if this happens (assuming JT signs for less than $9M AAV) one thing though… Hanafin is a LHD, what the heck happens to the LD depth chart if Hanafin joins the leftorium???

  74. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Klefbom for Krug or Barrie maybe?

    Stauff is poo-pooing Faulk on air right now. Also says Derek Ryan could be priced out of Edmonton’s cap range.

    “Klefbom on a sweetheart deal, attractive to many teams in the league” Bob’s even scaring Brenden Ullrich.

  75. Rondo says:

    Wonder what it would take to get Jacob De La Rose out of Montreal . He would be an excellent 3rd line center.

  76. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Stauff thinks Ty Smith could push for a spot in 2019/20. Maybe that’s *logic* behind Klefbom trade.

    Mentions Buffalo & Carolina as teams looking for shake ups. ROR, conflicting reports on Risto.

    Says change means “Contracts for contracts, that’s all I’m gonna give you.”

  77. Wilde says:

    Jaxon,

    Without getting into why it’s probably bad to over-curate this sample by attempting to eliminate busts retroactively and how that ignores the inherent randomness in drafting and developing, I’ll submit once again that

    – Farabee is a likely victim of forcing lower-event minutes via being a strong possession player and therefore gaming the estimated-TOI to a degree

    and

    – He logs heavy minutes on the penalty kill where he’s very effective, as well as the power play

    I’ve read a few scouting reports that seem to contradict his low estimated-TOI, here’s one from Scott Wheeler:

    “Farabee is one of those players who won’t break open a game with pure skill, but will finish after 18-20 minutes of ice time with a goal or an assist and a huge backcheck to prevent one at the other end.”

  78. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Maybe they’ll trade Sekera for Bogosian.

    God I hope not

  79. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Also, re: Farabee – while I don’t doubt that he’s a gifted hockey player, any time I see a guy playing with two of the top-10 U18 players in the world (seat-of-the-pants-o-meter), I immediately cut his results in about half. Does anybody look at Ty Rattie and think he’s suddenly a legit 1RW? No way is Farabee driving the play there, not saying he’s not skilled but he’s certainly benefitting from two players who are clearly better than he is.

    And I’m not sure what the reason was behind the move but Jonny Gruden moved up to wing on the first line part way through the season and also scored at a blistering pace. By the stats (and articles about him and his bloodline and work ethic), I kinda like Gruden better even though nobody has him higher than 50.

    I used prospect-stats.com and corsica.hockey along with Vollman and Jeremy Davis equivalency numbers. The numbers have been inflated by comparing the calculation to players who have made the jump right from junior to the NHL. D & F have different inflation numbers. I’ve adjusted for age using a modified version of Rhys Jessop’s work (adjusted to median age) in both junior and NHL. And I’ve also done a rudimentary adjustment for era in both junior and NHL. I’ve also adjusted everything according to median 5-on-5 top 6 NHL ice time and median 5-on-5 top 4 D ice time in both junior and NHL. I’ve used primary pts at 5-on-5 per 60 as the most predictive of future production. In doing so, and seeing many terrible players who produced at great rates in junior but didn’t turn into productive NHLers. When trying to find a way to weed out those players I noticed that most of the busts played less than 13.74 TOI at 5-on-5.

    I’ve attached the spreadhseet for viewing. Beware, it is a real mess as much of my playing around and thinking out loud and sorting is still visible. comment if you have any questions.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7hTmAK0yHaBUJdGTSPg8k1kjCLfD1k6ISMjledHoWc/edit?usp=sharing

  80. Andy Dufresne says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Stauff thinks Ty Smith could push for a spot in 2019/20. Maybe that’s *logic* behind Klefbom trade.

    Mentions Buffalo & Carolina as teams looking for shake ups. ROR, conflicting reports on Risto.

    Says change means “Contracts for contracts, that’s all I’m gonna give you.”

    Stauffer also mention a Toronto Marlie that would make a great 12th forward …….doesnt mention a name………Is this the Josh Leivo idea that LT has been describing/conjecturing about??

    Best part is where he mentions the Oilers saw Faulk as BAD veiwing him late in the season.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    1) Oscar Klefbom is heading to Boston.

    – Klefbom plus for Krug makes no sense to me given Krug is more expensive (with less term) and older – that would be a move that may help now (may not) but hurts the cap situation even more in the future. This organization needs to be acquiring and developing players on value contracts, not trading our young (Klef is still young) players on good contracts (value contract when he is on his game).

    2) The No. 10 overall pick is headed out of town

    Could happen but I sure hope its not one of those silly trades for Max P. (or similar) – we cannot trade good young cost controlled assets for aging veterans that are going to require UFA contracts within the next year or so.

    3) Justin Faulk is an Oiler!

    3 years ago, yes, however, with his drop in production and terrible even strength play, I don’t want this player unless we are “buying low”. I would not give up a package that includes JP or the 10th (or similar).

    4) Milan Lucic asked for a trade.

    We all wish, don’t we. With that said, we’d likly need to retain a couple of million and would need to find a middle six left winger.

    Here is hoping Milan rebounds to 20/25/45 of mainly even strength production.

    I think he can and he will.

    5) Ryan Strome is being dealt

    Sure, it “saves” apx $3M but we would need a 3C and I don’t think Khaira is ready for 3C (either 4C or middle 6 LW)

    6)Jesse Puljujarvi is being traded.

    Please no unless we get real value.

    With that said, its time for Jesse to take a stop forward offensively. Part of it will be usage but, if he starts on the 3rd line, its up to Jesse to earn a bump up to Leon’s wing.

    Here is hoping he earns a spot on Leon’s wing in camp and doesn’t look back.

    25-25-50.

    7) Ryan O’Reilly, come on down, you’re an Oiler!

    He’d be fantastic but at $7.5M, say goodbye to Nuge and what’s the acquisition cost?

    8) My God, they’ve signed Ilya Kovalchuk Lennart Petrell

    I would LOVE Kovalchuk on this team for a year but, alas, there is no cap space.

    I would NOT give term and I would give him a performance based contract (35 plus contract). I believe he wants term and I don’t see the Oilers being on his radar.

  82. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    A count measure that we can see plainly probably games estimated TOI equations: Joel Farabee’s goals for and against.

    32 – 10.

    Ten goals against.

  83. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Klefbom for Petrovic & 15.

    Cats get the left shot D they need so Yandle doesn’t have to play 1st comp.

    Oilers get the right shot D they need so Russell can move to the left.

    I think I just puked in my mouth a little bit…

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    The argument for retaining Strome and playing him at RW:

    Strome with Draisaitl, 5v5, 193:43 TOI
    53.28 CF%
    53.46 FF%
    53.33 SF%
    60.00 GF%
    55.81 SCF%
    57.14 SCGF%
    54.55 HDCF%
    66.67 HDGF%
    1.022 PDO
    56.15 OZS%

    Strome with McDavid, 5v5, 56:16 TOI
    56.10 CF%
    53.57 FF%
    52.46 SF%
    75.00 GF%
    66.13 SCF%
    75.00 SCGF%
    65.22 HDCF%
    75.00 HDGF%
    1.059 PDO
    50.00 OZS%

    The argument for retaining Strome and playing him at 3C:

    Lucic with Stome and without, 5v5, 216:19 TOI v 772.10 (much of this with other skilled C’s: 419:31 McDavid, 278:31 Draisaitl, 314:45 Nugent-Hopkins – some overlap, obviously)
    51.97 CF% v 50.91 Lucic without Strome
    51.60 FF% v 52.10
    50.22 SF% v 50.46
    47.06 GF% v 48.72
    54.31 SCF% v 51.65
    50.00 SCGF% v 48.48
    55.00 HDCF% v 51.32
    44.44 HDGF% v 40.00
    0.991 PDO
    53.10 OZS%

    Interesting to see that Lucic didn’t drag Strome down (didn’t publish those figures above), but got at least as good results playing with Strome as he did with the better centers. Is this the 3-line duo of the future?

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Petrovic is an interesting option but, at this point, he’s not proven to be more than a 3RD which doesn’t solve the top 3 RD hole. Maybe Benning can take that step and prove to be an every day top 4 right shot d-man – we made that bet last year and lost but next year is a new year.

    We’d need to dispose of Russell if we acquired Petrovic.

  86. jeetz says:

    Draisaitl to buffalo for the 1st overall

    Ouch. That would send this site into a frenzy, mass chaos

  87. Jaxon says:

    Wilde:
    Jaxon,

    Without getting into why it’s probably bad to over-curate this sample by attempting to eliminate busts retroactively and how that ignores the inherent randomness in drafting and developing, I’ll submit once again that

    – Farabee is a likely victim of forcing lower-event minutes via being a strong possession player and therefore gaming the estimated-TOI to a degree

    and

    – He logs heavy minutes on the penalty kill where he’s very effective, as well as the power play

    I’ve read a few scouting reports that seem to contradict his low estimated-TOI, here’s one from Scott Wheeler:

    “Farabee is one of those players who won’t break open a game with pure skill, but will finish after 18-20 minutes of ice time with a goal or an assist and a huge backcheck to prevent one at the other end.”

    *Sticks fingers in his ears*
    La, La, La. La, La, La… I CAN’T HEAR YOU! La, La, La.
    Quit giving me evidence that conflicts with my preconceived notions and cherry-picked data! I’m glad we had this chat. It’s been very productive. Haha.

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: And Klefbom has been protected by Larsson.
    The GF percentage difference in the last two year on 5 v 5 (meaning Larsson without Klef – Klef without Larsson) is a very steady 15% each year.
    Both have serious defensive issues and need to play with a Adam Larsson to be effective

    39.13 GF% together, 5v5, 2017-18, 214 TOI
    39.22 GF% Klefbom without Larsson, 574 TOI

    Larsson didn’t seem to help Klefbom this year.

  89. ashley says:

    leadfarmer: And Klefbom has been protected by Larsson.
    The GF percentage difference in the last two year on 5 v 5 (meaning Larsson without Klef – Klef without Larsson) is a very steady 15% each year.
    Both have serious defensive issues and need to play with a Adam Larsson to be effective

    But back in the “Angry Hall-Trade Days” circa winter 2016, Larsson always defers to Klefbom. Without Klefbom, Larsson is pretty useless. Just a place filler. 😉

    I think a Klefbom trade could work out really well for us. He has good value, so good value must return to the roster, not a one-for-three with three “blue-chippers” in the minors to start the season.

  90. Professor Q says:

    jeetz:
    Draisaitl to buffalo for the 1st overall

    Ouch. That would send this site into a frenzy, mass chaos

    Buffalo wins the Cup. Lowetide shuts down. Woman inherits the World.

  91. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: In terms of player evaluation
    Personality – Next to worthless unless the player is a completely toxic person
    Leadership skill-Next to worthless.More picks have been wasted on “good in the room guys” than almost any other personality trait
    Nationality – Really???What year is it?
    Defensive Acumen – Thats pretty useful although defensive acumen in junior has a long way to go before being defensive acumen in NHL and probably cant be counted on for at least 5 years

    If Boqvist becomes the player he has the potential of becoming, you cannot acquire that player other than drafting.If Farabee reaches his potential you can still get that player type through trade or free agency.

    You do understand I don’t think any of this stuff myself. I am merely saying it is what the Oilers management appears to believe.

    Because biases (acknowledged and unacknowledged ) determines the opportunities and the timing of the opportunities a player gets and those opportunities shape a player’s career it is best for any organization to draft a player they are prepared to support, nurture, and to whom they will give A list opportunities.

    You have to ask the following question: is Adam Boqvist tremendous talent likely to be optimized by the team that can’t figure out what to do with Jesse Puljujarvi? If not who Boqvist could be is irrelevant because he won’t be that player with the Oilers. Joel Farabee on the other hand is more idiot proof.

    By the way, I am not saying, the Oilers are racist or nationalistic. A number of teams believe that with the huge expansion in the number of kids playing hockey in the US that the USHL is under appreciated, under valued, and that USHL players are under ranked.

    I don’t know much about Craig Button’s methodology but he has Farabee 11 and Boqvist 12. He has Wahlstrom 10. It seems possible that the Oilers will have a choice at 10 of player X, I don’t think Wahlstrom is still there, Farabee or Boqvist. All of them in range picks.

    This is where you really want to pick the kid where you can be there forever home.

  92. Andy Dufresne says:

    Moving a contact with term for ROR could only be Klef or Nuge…….and really….only Nuge…..

    ROR scores a slighty better rate, is two years older but is under control for 5 more years at $7.5m AVV (with salary of $6million for the last four years of the contract)

    Nuge is 2 years younger and $1.5m AVV less….but is under control for only 3 more years.

    Sell high on Nuge?

    I would do this deal. I wonder if ROR pushes the river on his own? If he does it would probably have to be Nuge+

  93. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: 4) Milan Lucic asked for a trade.

    We all wish, don’t we. With that said, we’d likly need to retain a couple of million and would need to find a middle six left winger.

    Here is hoping Milan rebounds to 20/25/45 of mainly even strength production.

    I think he can and he will.

    Just noticing Vancouver has a huge amount of cap space moving forward – $27M for 2018-19 with just 6 roster spots open. We have the solution.

  94. Wilde says:

    VOR,

    I agree with this notion and it’s part why I would like the Oilers to select Farabee or Smith.

    English-speaking high grade character players, Edmonton has the least trouble with those.

    If it’s the dream organisation, you chuckle and select Merkley.

  95. VOR says:

    Jaxon,

    I posted a response to you at the end of the last thread.

    In it I offered to share data with you.

  96. Andy Dufresne says:

    Nuge + for ROR (Nuge would do better in the east)
    Klefbom for Barrie

    $10.17m out
    $ 13m in

    Very doable.

  97. VOR says:

    Wilde,

    A scout in the Flyers organization who at the time thought Farabee would fall to them told me they thought Farabee was doing so much heavy lifting for Hughes and Wahlstrom that his offence was suffering. The 32-10 sort of suggests they could be right.

  98. Jordan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    1 – Boqivst
    2 – 5 years at 4.5 M per for 22.5 M
    3 – 3 years at 1.5 M per for 4.5 M
    4 – 2 years at 2.15 M per for 4.3 M
    5 – Not if Peter does his job
    6 – No
    7 – Leon
    8 – Strome
    9 – Someone in the AHL (maybe marody or gambardella?
    10 – They are all back
    11 – None
    12 – If RFAs count, Nurse. If not, I don’t think they take any UFA for more than 2.5M on a 1 year deal

  99. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    1 Adam Boqvist
    2 $3.5m X 2 years
    3 Benning gets traded
    4 $2.75m, X 2 years
    5 Yamamoto will be the only one
    6 No, it’s live or die now
    7 Strome
    8 Draisaitl
    9 Strome
    10 Benning is gone, Petrovic is in
    11 Two, Matt Benning for Andreas Athanasiou, the other 2019 3rd Rounder for Alex Petrovic
    12 League wide; Tavares. He will get $11m for 8 years. For the Oilers it’s Petrovic’s new RFA deal for 2 years, $2.0m per

  100. npanciroli says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – LT I’ve posted this for the last few years.It’s a diversion for the summer: we all get to be arm-chair GM’s.Contest the off-season elaborate version of Hunters.Winner gets a donation to LT.

    Here is goes: a dozen questions for the off-season.I will take answers untill the draft:

    What will the Oilers do?:

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1 Ty Smith
    2 $4.75 x 7
    3 $2.25 x 2
    4 $3.25 x 2
    5 Yamamoto
    6 Don’t think so – but the rumours of Hunter from TML are interesting.
    7 Strome
    8 Draisaitl
    9 Strome
    10 Gonna go Klef for Risto.
    11 Two, Klef for Risto, minor pick for player trade – let’s say 4th for Leivo.
    12 Tavares then for Oil I will say a minor winger.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Rasanen was a great pick at 153. We don’t talk about him much, but I think he is a material prospect. Hopefully he gets more TOI next year in BC – with top-6 minutes this kid will blossom.

    I was really impressed by him at the WJC this past year – he was trusted by his coach in all-situations – first PP, first PK, important faceoffs, defending a lead, etc. He was the net front presence on the PP and I found he liked to get to the front of the net at evens.

    I wasn’t quite as impressed with him in the couple of BC games that I saw but he was still a solid player on the team given his age.

    He’s a project and will need time but he does have a shot at the NHL at some point – A 3C type of skill set.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can I change my answers if there is any material news prior to the draft?

    1 – Ty Smith
    2 – 3 X $4.25M
    3- 2 X $1.75M
    4 – 1 X $3M
    5 – Game 1 – Yamamoto and Marody
    6 – No
    7 – Leon Draisaitl
    8 – Leon Draisaitl
    9 – Ryan Strome
    10 – All on roster
    11 – 3
    12 – for the Oilers or in general? In general, Tavares. For the Oilers, Nurse.

  103. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: With that said, its time for Jesse to take a stop forward offensively. Part of it will be usage but, if he starts on the 3rd line, its up to Jesse to earn a bump up to Leon’s wing.

    Here is hoping he earns a spot on Leon’s wing in camp and doesn’t look back.

    NO. I want him on Connor’s wing, not Leon’s. Up until 5 minutes ago I was a Leon-Jesse proponent, but I’ve had a boo at the numbers.

    Puljujarvi with McDavid / without McDavid / McDavid without Puljujarvi
    All 5v5, 256:57 together

    54.61 49.03 50.30 CF%
    55.79 48.71 51.59 FF%
    53.35 47.19 50.71 SF%
    61.90 41.46 55.67 GF%
    59.17 46.12 49.83 SCF%
    63.16 35.29 56.41 SCGF%
    62.02 40.81 53.16 HDCF%
    62.50 36.00 54.90 HDGF%
    1.023 PDO
    54.91 OZS%

    Jesse makes Connor MUCH better in EVERY SINGLE METRIC, and of course McDavid elevates Puljujarvi even harder. With Nugent-Hopkins on the other side?? I can’t even IMAGINE how good that would be.

    Puljujarvi with Draisaitl / without Draisaitl / Draisaitl without Puljujarvi
    All 5v5, 101:22 together

    47.37 51.48 52.01 CF%
    46.88 51.80 54.45 FF%
    45.16 49.94 54.01 SF%
    38.46 51.02 47.67 GF%
    52.04 50.64 51.85 SCF%
    33.33 48.78 43.84 SCGF%
    56.25 47.81 52.27 HDCF%
    42.86 47.06 46.67 HDGF%
    0.972 PDO
    47.06 OZS%

    Smaller sample size but it looks like putting Draisaitl and Puljujarvi together is a mistake, as they drag each other down. If given regular time together I’m sure they’d develop chemistry, but it isn’t immediately apparent.

    Hopefully Todd gives Leon-Kailer a whole bunch of time together in training camp. Strome is a good option there but then you’d have to sign another guy to play 3C and wingers are cheaper.

  104. ArmchairGM says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Klefbom for Petrovic & 15.

    Cats get the left shot D they need so Yandle doesn’t have to play 1st comp.

    Oilers get the right shot D they need so Russell can move to the left.

    I think I just puked in my mouth a little bit…

    AND Oilers get Ryan Merkley.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    jeetz:
    Draisaitl to buffalo for the 1st overall

    Ouch. That would send this site into a frenzy, mass chaos

    I’d do it in a quick minute. Maybe include Klefbom and ROR to even things out on the respective rosters.

  106. OilSafety says:

    Kinger

    What will the Oilers do?:

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1 Kurashev 37OV (see below)
    2 2 year 2.5m AAV
    3 1 year, 1.8m AAV
    4 Traded
    5 No
    6 No
    7 Sutter (Cannucks)
    8 Drai
    9 Horvat(Cannucks)
    10 Russel
    11 3 Lucic and Yammamoto to Vancouver for 37 OV 2018 and a 2019 3rd found pick, Russel and 10 OV to Clagary for Hamilton, Strome to Leafs for 52 OV 2018
    12 Nash 4year x 3m AAV 3C then Grabner 3yr 2m

    Too much change, but there you go

  107. Pink Socks says:

    Last summer Marc Bergevin needed a 1C.

    This summer Marc Bergevin needs a 1C and a top-4 LD.

    At the draft Marc Bergevin will likely reach on the 3rd pick and take Kotkaniemi or even Veleno.

    This coming October Marc Bergevin has a $10.5m goaltender in a buyout proof contract coming off the worst season of his career who seems to be developing a troubling injury history.

    Things could be worse. The problem is that it seems some organizations (not naming names), refuse to pull the trigger until it’s already too late on the executives if they are long-timers or “hockey people”. Bergevin since 2016 has butchered what was a very strong team, albeit one that had feast or famine with it all on the goaltender’s shoulders.

    In the last two summers, he traded Lars Eller for Andrew Shaw (basically), Subban for Weber, and Drouin for Sergachev.

    So the question is, who should be more anxious over the upcoming summer. Oilers fans, or Habs fans.

  108. Truth says:

    With the dialogue on the radio today…If they trade Klefbom for Faulk I swear to God I hope McDavid requests a trade so I can still be a fan of the team he plays on. I’m 100% serious in saying I think an actual monkey could run this team more effectively.

  109. Bank Shot says:

    Isn’t Krug better than Klefbom?

    Seems like it would be an alright trade.

  110. Harpers Hair says:

    ArmchairGM: Just noticing Vancouver has a huge amount of cap space moving forward – $27M for 2018-19 with just 6 roster spots open. We have the solution.

    Lots of chatter that VCR will take on the final year of Jason Spezzas contract at $7.5M. No buyout required.

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: *Sticks fingers in his ears*
    La, La, La. La, La, La… I CAN’T HEAR YOU! La, La, La.
    Quit giving me evidence that conflicts with my preconceived notions and cherry-picked data! I’m glad we had this chat. It’s been very productive. Haha.

    I don’t really want to wade into this debate, because I’m as sharp as a sponge, but can you tell me how they estimate ice time?

  112. Pink Socks says:

    Truth:
    With the dialogue on the radio today…If they trade Klefbom for Faulk I swear to God I hope McDavid requests a trade so I can still be a fan of the team he plays on.I’m 100% serious in saying I think an actual monkey could run this team more effectively.

    Klefbom for Faulk would be devastating. But so would Klef for Krug or Barrie. It seems like the team sees a weakness, thinks about what assets could be used to acquire a fix for the weakness and then just does it. Without thinking of the potential consequences.

  113. Dee Dee says:

    Looking at Lucic’s salary and buyout possibilities from: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/milan-lucic

    I find a few bits interesting.

    His actual salary for the next five years is: (millions) 3.5, 3, 1, 2.5 ,1

    Folks are thinking of the $6,000,000 cap hit Lucic and not the actual 3.5 -1 Million real salary left Lucic. A $3.5 Million Lucic does not require that much of a bounce back and playing even 3rd line is not that unacceptable of a number.

    Lucic’s cap hit vs actual salary would be attractive to a team struggling to reach the cap floor.

    Secondly, a buyout what cost the team $733,333 for the next ten years.
    The first 5 years would SAVE the Oilers $7,333,335 in total salary
    The last 5 years would cost the Oilers $3,666,665

    Overall savings at the end of the 10 years would be $3,666,670.

    I feel he can still bounce back to at least match his remaining actual salary and would result in a best possible outcome for the Oilers. But you could also do a creative trade (perhaps with some retained salary) and let the other team either live with the nice Average Cap Hit or have THEM buy him out

    Carolina, Vegas, Islanders, Rangers, and Buffalo are seriously below the cap floor.

  114. JimmyV1965 says:

    Truth:
    With the dialogue on the radio today…If they trade Klefbom for Faulk I swear to God I hope McDavid requests a trade so I can still be a fan of the team he plays on.I’m 100% serious in saying I think an actual monkey could run this team more effectively.

    Stauffer was really down on Faulk as are most people who watched him. I really like Faulk as a but low candidate, but that certainly isn’t Klef.

  115. stevebergeron97 says:

    Does Nashville consider Klefbom plus 10th overall (possibly a prospect) for Subban?

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    His actual salary for the next five years is: (millions) 3.5, 3, 1, 2.5 ,1

    Any team acquiring would still have to pay his signing bonuses – his total compensation for those years are: 7, 6, 4, 5, 4.

  117. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Any team acquiring would still have to pay his signing bonuses – his total compensation for those years are: 7, 6, 4, 5, 4.

    And they would be part of the buyout cap hit.

  118. jtblack says:

    stevebergeron97,

    How much Salary do you think Edm can bring in?

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Any team acquiring would still have to pay his signing bonuses – his total compensation for those years are: 7, 6, 4, 5, 4.

    Very true. Any trade would have to happen after July 1st in that particular year, because that’s when the signing bonus is paid out. If a trade happened July 2, 2019, the receiving team would have to pay out 3, 4, 5, 4 – retaining say $1M would bring their actual cost down to half of the cap hit. Not an unreasonable proposition for the right team.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: And they would be part of the buyout cap hit.

    Yup – if he was bought out this off-season, the dead cap hit for the next five years would be:

    $3.23M
    $3.73M
    $5.73M
    $4.23M
    $5.73M

    The cap hit for the following 5 years would be $733K.

  121. --hudson-- says:

    ArmchairGM: Just noticing Vancouver has a huge amount of cap space moving forward – $27M for 2018-19 with just 6 roster spots open. We have the solution.

    You have to imagine Jim Benning is a big Lucic fan as well. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen within the next few years maybe for a pick or a player like Virtanen.

  122. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: Any team acquiring would still have to pay his signing bonuses – his total compensation for those years are: 7, 6, 4, 5, 4.

    IMO the contract was designed to be moved in the final 3 years.

    Some team that has the cap space ( especially a team trying to get to the cap floor) can get Lucic for a cost of approx $3.33m in salary and bonuses (if the trade occurs after July 1st and after Oilers pay that years signing bonus) for the last three years. With an AVV of $6m

    If he doesnt end up as a compliance buyout 2 years from now.

    SO we need to find a way to make Lucic productive for two more seasons…..which isnt out of the realm of possibiity

  123. Rondo says:

    Trade Ryan Strome for Jacob del la Rose. Better C and cheaper.

  124. godot10 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Stauff thinks Ty Smith could push for a spot in 2019/20. Maybe that’s *logic* behind Klefbom trade.

    Mentions Buffalo & Carolina as teams looking for shake ups. ROR, conflicting reports on Risto.

    Says change means “Contracts for contracts, that’s all I’m gonna give you.”

    It took Ryan Ellis till his 4th post draft year to make it to the NHL, and Ty Smith is supposed to be ready next season….

  125. JimmyV1965 says:

    Rondo:
    Trade Ryan Strome for Jacob del la Rose. Better C and cheaper.

    Not sure if you’re joking because that looks awful. JDR hasn’t even scored in the minors.

  126. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Isn’t Krug better than Klefbom?

    Seems like it would be an alright trade.

    Krug is NOT better than Klefbom. He is worse, since for more for less duration. So that trade would be horrible in every possible way.

  127. Rondo says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Serious, he was great in the Worlds,I think he going to be a really good shutdown center.

  128. godot10 says:

    Dee Dee:
    Looking at Lucic’s salary and buyout possibilities from: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/milan-lucic

    I find a few bits interesting.

    His actual salary for the next five years is: (millions) 3.5, 3, 1, 2.5 ,1

    Folks are thinking of the $6,000,000 cap hit Lucic and not the actual 3.5 -1 Million real salary left Lucic. A $3.5 Million Lucic does not require that much of a bounce back and playing even 3rd line is not that unacceptable of a number.

    Lucic’s cap hit vs actual salary would be attractive to a team struggling to reach the cap floor.

    Secondly, a buyout what cost the team $733,333 for the next ten years.
    The first 5 years would SAVE the Oilers $7,333,335 in total salary
    The last 5 years would cost the Oilers $3,666,665

    Overall savings at the end of the 10 years would be $3,666,670.

    I feel he can still bounce back to at least match his remaining actual salary and would result in a best possible outcome for the Oilers. But you could also do a creative trade (perhaps with some retained salary) and let the other team either live with the nice Average Cap Hit or have THEM buy him out

    Carolina, Vegas, Islanders, Rangers, and Buffalo are seriously below the cap floor.

    You are forgetting about Lucic’s signing bonuses each season which have to be paid July 1 each year and which are buyout proof.

    Lucis is owed $7 million, $6 milllion, $4 million, $5 million, and $4 million actual dollars for the remaining years of his contract.

    Not the nonsense you are posting above.

  129. Andy Dufresne says:

    For those not keeping up with the Ryan O’Reilly saga…..this is from Buffalo News John Vogl:

    “One of the most stunning exit interviews in Sabres history will reverberate for some time. The alternate captain and highest-paid player admitted he was OK with losing, wasn’t mentally tough and lost his love of the game.

    Odds are good O’Reilly knew exactly what he was saying.

    He had plenty of time to think about what he’d say on locker-cleanout day. With every news outlet in Buffalo recording him, O’Reilly unleashed bombshell after bombshell. From the rubble came cries of, “Ship him out of town.”

    It could be what he wants.

    O’Reilly contributed to the most lackadaisical, uncaring team in Sabres history. By confessing his sins, he may have found an out.

    With his public revelations, he may have found an escape hatch from Buffalo. Teams will undoubtedly contact the Sabres about his availability. A successful suitor would get a power-play scorer, faceoff king and a two-way center who faces the top lines during crucial situations.
    The rest of what they’d be getting is up for debate.”

  130. McSorley33 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    What will the Oilers do?:

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1 – Kotkaniemi
    2 8 Years x 5.0
    3 3 years x 2.0
    4 2 years x 3.1
    5 None
    6 None
    7 Drai ( Tmac is still here )
    8 Drai
    9 McD
    10 Klef
    11 1 –
    12- John Tavares

    Thanks for doing this Kinger….

  131. jeetz says:

    godot10,

    I honestly believe that Lucic has has trade value with 1.25 mil retained. Especially if they trade him after his 3.5 mil bonus this year is paid. Last year was definitly an anomaly. For what he brings 4.75 per year is a good price. I could see a team with lots of youth and cap space interested. Especially for it the deal is something like Lucic at 1.25 retained for a 2019 3rd round pick, 2018 bonus paid.

    He isn’t what the oilers advertised when they signed him but he is better than last year. 1.25 retained is better than any buyout scenario.

  132. russ99 says:

    As for the rumor, do it. This team needs more NHL talent.

    Those opposed either are cheering for a bad year next season so the GM/Coach are axed, or are holding too tightly to favorite players or prospects.

    The Oilers winning hockey games means more than anything else.

  133. LadiesloveSmid says:

    russ99,

    The rumour of trading an NHL player for a less talented one?

  134. russ99 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Depends on who it is. And Klefbom has been consistently poor when the Oilers don’t have the puck.

    Less talented doesn’t just include CF+% and 5×5 GF%

  135. LadiesloveSmid says:

    russ99,

    Klefbom was poor this season and fantastic last season. I guess you bet on your players health. Don’t think they need an older, more sheltered player with a worse contract.

  136. hunter1909 says:

    Pink Socks: Klefbom for Faulk would be devastating.But so would Klef for Krug or Barrie.It seems like the team sees a weakness, thinks about what assets could be used to acquire a fix for the weakness and then just does it.Without thinking of the potential consequences.

    Surely what thou sayeth is correct. However, such shenanigans is what keepeth the fanbase excitable, interested, and committed to the fantastic world of Lowe+MacTville.

  137. hunter1909 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    russ99,

    Klefbom was poor this season and fantastic last season. I guess you bet on your players health. Don’t think they need an older, more sheltered player with a worse contract.

    If Lowe+MacT were running the 1950’s Habs, Maurice Richard’s broken leg would have condemned him to Bakersfield, or worse.

  138. hunter1909 says:

    russ99: The Oilers winning hockey games means more than anything else.

    Reasonable assumption. But what about us long suffering fans who are at the brink where we no longer have any faith in the idiots running the team?

    I’m personally more interested in seeing the Capitals win the cup, and seeing that glorious Russian winger finally put those asshole anti-Russians to rest permanently, than any lets say, draft gossip re the greaseballs(I’m not a Flames fan, btw).

  139. hunter1909 says:

    ps: If I was a Falames fan, I’d be eternally pissed re Draisaitl vs Bennet.

  140. hunter1909 says:

    pps: I knew I typed falames…but that’s a typo I can always live with.

  141. hunter1909 says:

    Let’s put it this way: You really want the team to be properly run, and when they make announcements that appear to back up that thinking you naturally want to rejoice. Then, they hand out idiotic NMC’s trade away Hart trophy candidates, and you realise they’re just the same morons as always.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: IMOthe contract was designed to be moved in the final 3 years.

    Some team that has the cap space ( especially a team trying to get to the cap floor) can get Lucic for a cost of approx $3.33m in salary and bonuses (if the trade occurs after July 1st and after Oilers pay that years signing bonus)for the last three years. With an AVV of $6m

    If he doesnt end up as a compliance buyout 2 years from now.

    SO we need to find a way to make Lucic productive for two more seasons…..which isnt out of the realm of possibiity

    Maybe so but, if that was the case, then its still a bad contract. I’ve heard/read the same thing with respect to Russell’s contract, that it is intended to be moved in the back end of it.

    If the GM is signing a contract that he knows will create issues before the contract term is up and knows that it will need to be moved before it terms out, that’s a bad contract.

  143. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: If the GM is signing a contract that he knows will create issues before the contract term is up and knows that it will need to be moved before it terms out, that’s a bad contract.

    Oilers GM appears oblivious to these apparently(to the Oilers management) mundane concerns.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo: Jacob del la Rose

    All his numbers are worse – his box cars, his advanced stats, his relative metrics. He’s terrible on faceoffs. He shoots left (Strome is our only right shot center).

    He will be cheaper – worse, but cheaper.

  145. Rondo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    He looked great at the Worlds, think he is ready to have a big year for a 3rd line C.

  146. bendelson says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: What will the Oilers do?:
    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive off-season free-agent signing?

    1) Ty Smith
    2) 8 yrs, $5M/yr
    3) 2 yrs, $1.8M/yr
    4) 1 yr, $3M
    5) None
    6) No
    7) Drai
    8) Drai
    9) Marody (in Cali)
    10) Sekera
    11) Two: Petrovic and Ryan
    12) UFA: Ryan: 3yrs, 2M/yr. RFA: Nurse (see above)

    *edit:
    11) Four: Petrovic and Jenner in. Kassian and Sekera out.

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: And Klefbom has been protected by Larsson.
    The GF percentage difference in the last two year on 5 v 5 (meaning Larsson without Klef – Klef without Larsson) is a very steady 15% each year.
    Both have serious defensive issues and need to play with a Adam Larsson to be effective

    This is why I’m cool with Klefbom for Barrie or Ristolainen. .

    Not so much for Krug and Faulk is bleh.

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: 39.13 GF% together, 5v5, 2017-18, 214 TOI
    39.22 GF% Klefbom without Larsson, 574 TOI

    Larsson didn’t seem to help Klefbom this year.

    Larsson 53.4% GF w/o Klefbom is pretty important information here.

  149. Ari says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    What % of time vs Elites did Ristolainen have this last year.

    (When you have time to find it. Only because Matty mentions him.)

    Edit: I see 38/41/21 for 2016/17

  150. digger50 says:

    Bob S stating that Ty Smith might be close to NHL ready is interesting.

    One rating you don’t see often in scouting report is nhl readiness. While the Oil may intend to use the 10 pick, it doesn’t mean they still do t want immediate help, or asap help. Thus. If they are looking at three players for that 10 pick, they may not place value on potentiL cieling, but place highest value on NHL readiness to determine who to take.

    And Bob Nicholson stating obvious. Of course who you get in the draft will influence your free agent targets. It influences your decision based on position and again nhl readiness.

  151. Scungilli Slushy says:

    “Contracts for contracts that’s all I’m going to give you “

    I could see a multi player with the Sabres or Canes. Teams under pressure and/or new people involved:
    Edmonton
    Buffalo
    Carolina
    Nashville

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Larsson 53.4% GF w/o Klefbom is pretty important information here.

    For the record Klef’s shoulder plays a huge role here in last year’s numbers.

    That said, he’s never been good defensively in the NHL.

  153. --hudson-- says:

    Milan Lucic makes Frank Seravalli’s trade bait summer list:
    https://www.tsn.ca/erik-karlsson-tops-first-trade-bait-board-of-the-summer-1.1105047

    Rated number 18 right between Conor Sheary and Max Domi.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ari:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    What % of time vs Elites did Ristolainen have this last year.

    (When you have time to find it.Only because Matty mentions him.)

    Edit:I see 38/41/21 for 2016/17

    Ristolainen is interesting because he’s been fed to the wolves mostly with Josh Bloody Jorges for his career.

    He finally gets a “reasonable” partner in Scandella, who isn’t good enough to play 2LD for MIN, but plays 1LD in BUF and all of a sudden Risto isn’t awful…..

    Great buy low and I’d do Klef for him in in a heartbeat.

    Who a player plays with matter the most when evaluating his results.

  155. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: The USHL gives Edmonton substantial options in the 2018 draft

    https://theathletic.com/381490/2018/06/06/lowetide-the-ushl-gives-edmonton-substantial-options-in-the-2018-draft/

  156. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar: Any team acquiring would still have to pay his signing bonuses – his total compensation for those years are: 7, 6, 4, 5, 4.

    If the Oilers paid Lucic’s signing bonus July 1st and traded him July 2nd would the full signing bonus count against the Oilers’ Cap for the 2018/19 season ?

  157. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah. People tend to get upset when someone brings up trading Klefbom but at some point we have to address the fact we have 4 LHD making 4 mil or more. Sekera and Russell are hard to move. As long as current decision making group is in place Nurse is next to untouchable. That leaves Klef. I don’t want Faulk but I didn’t want Lucic. Lucic was not the “lucic type player we were looking for” and Faulk is not the Faulk type player we should be looking for.
    I would be very happy with Ristolainen though. Been caved in for years but does anyone expect a young D in that situation to not get caved in. Can he be better with more help and easier minutes? I think he can. He played over 26 min a game the last 2 seasons. If you brought him down 4 1/2 minutes a game to 22 minutes I think we’d find a pretty good defenseman. We could give him and Larsson the Burns/Vlasic treatment to maximize each other’s skill set.

  158. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Trade Nurse for Risto if anything. Klef has a season of top pair results. I think Darnell’s friendship with 97 & 29 will play a role

  159. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: The USHL gives Edmonton substantial options in the 2018 draft

    https://theathletic.com/381490/2018/06/06/lowetide-the-ushl-gives-edmonton-substantial-options-in-the-2018-draft/

    Yeay. USHL post!!! As someone that would watch the Thomas Vanek led Sioux Falls Stampede I cant believe how long the league has stayed under the radar (in relative terms). I know for a while there the Oil had a big inferiority complex about non western Canadians actual desire to play in Edmonton but when you are a kid playing in Sioux City or Sioux Falls most just dream of making it to the NHL

  160. LadiesloveSmid says:

    –hudson–:
    Milan Lucic makes Frank Seravalli’s trade bait summer list:
    https://www.tsn.ca/erik-karlsson-tops-first-trade-bait-board-of-the-summer-1.1105047

    Rated number 18 right between Conor Sheary and Max Domi.

    Would you trade 5 more years of Lucic for 3 more years of Perry at 8.63M?

  161. hunter1909 says:

    This fanbase attempting to micro-manage the Oilers reminds me of the time my uber-smart alkie friend asked me to consider the idea of:

    Counting to ten in a phonebooth with 100 angry hornets inside.

  162. leadfarmer says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    The guys that have all the control absolutely love Nurse. I would put him as by far the least likely player to move after Mcdavid and Larsson. Seriously.

  163. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    The guys that have all the control absolutely love Nurse.I would put him as by far the least likely player to move after Mcdavid and Larsson.Seriously.

    Nurse has intangibles.

    Like as in: he’s a hard bastard. Modern NHLers are so freaking soft Nurse seems like a breath of fresh air lol

  164. Mr DeBakey says:

    digger50:
    Bob S stating that Ty Smith might be close to NHL ready is interesting.

    One rating you don’t see often in scouting report is nhl readiness. While the Oil may intend to use the 10 pick, it doesn’t mean they still do t want immediate help, or asap help. Thus. If they are looking at three players for that 10 pick, they may not place value on potentiL cieling, but place highest value on NHL readiness to determine who to take.

    And Bob Nicholson stating obvious. Of course who you get in the draft will influence your free agent targets. It influences your decision based on position and again nhl readiness.

    I notice that many seem to consider Ol’ Buck Stauffer as a member of the media.
    He isn’t.
    He’s an extension of the Oilers’ PR staff.

    As for Ty Smith’s NHL readiness, NHL history tells me he ain’t got none.
    No matter what Mr Stauffer may declare.

  165. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: Maybe so but, if that was the case, then its still a bad contract.I’ve heard/read the same thing with respect to Russell’s contract, that it is intended to be moved in the back end of it.

    If the GM is signing a contract that he knows will create issues before the contract term is up and knows that it will need to be moved before it terms out, that’s a bad contract.

    Oh I agree its a bad contract. But if we can get two more years of 40-45pt Lucic….then the damage will be mitigated significantly.

  166. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t really want to wade into this debate, because I’m as sharp as a sponge, but can you tell me how they estimate ice time?

    I’m not exactly sure (although I believe it has something to do with counting events) and that is most likely a very fair criticism of the data as there could be some variances in the actual 5-on-5 ice time.

    It was developed by this dude, Stephen Burtch, and he briefly explains it in this thread with WheatNOil:
    https://twitter.com/wheatnoil/status/832810881826185216

    That said, it’s hard to look at the list of high scoring junior players and not see a correlation between low estimated TOI and busts. There are definitely some pretty strong outliers like Schefiele, Voracek, Giroux, Staal and many others but if you’re looking for a close to sure thing then Age Adjusted 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 over a certain threshold of 5-on-5 TOI look like a pretty good indicator. Combine that with eye tests and scouting reports that mention high hockey IQ, team player, 2-way, and don’t mention things like slow boots or attitude issues.

  167. RonnieB says:

    I like the idea of Ristolainen but ( looking at Buffalo roster ) he is their only RHD ( if you discount Bogosian, which i do ) so why would they trade him ?

  168. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is why I’m cool with Klefbom for Barrie or Ristolainen. .

    Not so much for Krug and Faulk is bleh.

    What about Nuge for Ryan O’Reilly? (With whatever minor adds needed to make the deal happen)

  169. Andy Dufresne says:

    RonnieB:
    I like the idea of Ristolainen but ( looking at Buffalo roster ) he is their only RHD ( if you discount Bogosian, which i do ) so why would they trade him ?

    IMO…. to your point…..if the deal is with Buffalo and as Stauffer says…”involves an Oiler player with term”……its just as likely to involve Nuge and Ryan O’Reilly as it is to involve Klefbom and Ristolainen.

  170. hunter1909 says:

    Lucic will be fine.

    IMO the entire team started off on a huge down last season and never recovered.

    Y’all need to take a chill pill.

  171. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: IMO…. if the deal is with Buffalo and as Stauffer says…involves an Oiler player with term……its just as likely to involve Nuge and Ryan O’Reilly as it is to involve Klefbom and Ristolainen.

    Both Nuge and Klef for Roar and Risto. Gives them salary relief. I’d do that.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rondo:
    OriginalPouzar,

    He looked great at the Worlds, think he is ready to have a big year for a 3rd line C.

    I understand that he looks great at the Worlds – that’s meaningless to me. Its a short tournament and the result of a short tournament should never be given too much credence. Not to mention that, while there were some strong teams, there were also teams from Korea, France, etc – I don’t put alot of stock in to great performances against such nations.

  173. Andy Dufresne says:

    Who a player plays with matter the most when evaluating his results.
    Woodguy v2.0,

    In similar fashion…..Would it be accurate to say that ……which “team” a goalie plays on matters most when evaluating goalies? or is that difficult to know because its difficult to measure?

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Larsson 53.4% GF w/o Klefbom is pretty important information here.

    Sure but it should be acknowledged that Klefbom was injured the entire year – he was physically limited and I think it was pretty evident that it effected his confidence and decision making.

    The numbers in the 2016/17 season tell a different story as far as possession metrics go.

    I’m not saying that Larsson doesn’t help Oscar’s game, he clearly does, but the numbers from a season where Oscar was hurt before game 1 should be taken with the acknowledgement of the same.

  175. RonnieB says:

    Is there any way within reason to get Dumba out of Minnesota and fit him within our cap. anticipating his next contract will be in the $6 + territory ? Minnesota has to sign Dumba and Zucker with only $7.4 million available before any cap increase.

  176. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Both Nuge and Klef for Roar and Risto. Gives them salary relief. I’d do that.

    Me too. If it was only one of the two which would you choose

    1) RNH for ROR
    2) Klef for Risto

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: If the Oilers paid Lucic’s signing bonus July 1st and traded him July 2nd would the full signing bonus count against the Oilers’ Cap for the 2018/19 season ?

    No – none of it (unless they retained as part of the deal).

  178. RonnieB says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Both Nuge and Klef for Roar and Risto. Gives them salary relief. I’d do tha

    ? Buffalo has $19 million in space and Edmonton has $10 based on Capfriendly.

  179. Jaxon says:

    digger50:
    Bob S stating that Ty Smith might be close to NHL ready is interesting.

    One rating you don’t see often in scouting report is nhl readiness. While the Oil may intend to use the 10 pick, it doesn’t mean they still do t want immediate help, or asap help. Thus. If they are looking at three players for that 10 pick, they may not place value on potentiL cieling, but place highest value on NHL readiness to determine who to take.

    And Bob Nicholson stating obvious. Of course who you get in the draft will influence your free agent targets. It influences your decision based on position and again nhl readiness.

    There’s only been 13 D in the past 13 years (including 2005 draft to 2017) that went straight from the draft into the NHL and played 25 or more games:

    #1 Aaron Ekblad (2014)
    #2 Victor Hedman (2009)
    #2 Drew Doughty (2008)
    #3 Zach Bogosian (2008)
    #4 Adam Larsson (2011)
    #4 Seth Jones (2013)
    #5 Luke Schenn (2008)
    #5 Noah Hanifin (2015)
    #8 Rasmus Ristolainen (2013)
    #12 Cam Fowler (2010)
    #14 Dmitry Kulikov (2009)
    #16 Jakob Chychrun (2016)
    #19 Luca Sbisa (2008)

    8 of them were top 5 picks. Not sure Ty Smith is the most likely to step in from this year’s crop. Dahlin, Bouchard, Dobson and Hughes all seem more likely. I think Stauffer is doing the company man thing and greasing the wheels for a few of the player who might be available at #10. He’s basically their PR guy, so he makes the picks more palatable to the fans ahead of time.

  180. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: I’m not exactly sure (although I believe it has something to do with counting events) and that is most likely a very fair criticism of the data as there could be some variances in the actual 5-on-5 ice time.

    It was developed by this dude, Stephen Burtch, and he briefly explains it in this thread with WheatNOil:
    https://twitter.com/wheatnoil/status/832810881826185216

    That said, it’s hard to look at the list of high scoring junior players and not see a correlation between low estimated TOI and busts. There are definitely some pretty strong outliers like Schefiele, Voracek, Giroux, Staal and many others but if you’re looking for a close to sure thing then Age Adjusted 5-on-5 Primary Points / 60 over a certain threshold of 5-on-5 TOI look like a pretty good indicator. Combine that with eye tests and scouting reports that mention high hockey IQ, team player, 2-way, and don’t mention things like slow boots or attitude issues.

    Thanks for that. TBH I would prefer we pass on both Farabee and Bosquist. Farabee is 160 lbs and Bosquist already has a history of injury. If I had to choose, I would take Bosquist because of that crazy upside. I probably take Veleno over Farabee. Keep in mind, I haven’t seen any of these guys play so my opinion is shiite.

  181. Professor Q says:

    What is with all the odd ideas today? Something in the whisky?

  182. RonnieB says:

    OriginalPouzar: No – none of it (unless they retained as part of the deal).

    Interesting. I thought that with the NHL contract year being July 1st through June 30th, paying the bonus would have the same effect as retaining it.

  183. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Me too.If it was only one of the two which would you choose

    1) RNH for ROR
    2) Klef for Risto

    Either

  184. Scungilli Slushy says:

    RonnieB: ? Buffalo has $19 million in space and Edmonton has $10 based on Capfriendly.

    The Oilers would take cap, that’s a thing according to Chiarelli in his deals he said. They can squeak a few M in.

  185. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    And like clockwork Tyler posts something about the ONSV% of Kelfbom, Karlsson, Letang and others….

    https://theathletic.com/376437/2018/06/06/dellow-the-nine-worst-defence-pairs-of-2017-18/

    I am still of the position that most Dmen do not influence ONSV% enough to matter.

    Those who persist at either end of the bell curve in large (4000+ 5v5 TOI) however, should be examined more closely as whatever is happening is persisting and not regressing over a sample where they should have regressed.

  186. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Who a player plays with matter the most when evaluating his results.
    Woodguy v2.0,

    In similar fashion…..Would it be accurate to say that ……which “team” a goalie plays on matters most when evaluating goalies? or is that difficult to know because its difficult to measure?

    Its important and why Goals Saved Above Average is valuable.

    When we have puck movement and player position data what we are using now (like GSAA) will be obsolete.

  187. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah.People tend to get upset when someone brings up trading Klefbom but at some point we have to address the fact we have 4 LHD making 4 mil or more.Sekera and Russell are hard to move.As long as current decision making group is in place Nurse is next to untouchable.That leaves Klef.I don’t want Faulk but I didn’t want Lucic.Lucic was not the “lucic type player we were looking for” and Faulk is not the Faulk type player we should be looking for.I would be very happy with Ristolainen though. Been caved in for years but does anyone expect a young D in that situation to not get caved in.Can he be better with more help and easier minutes?I think he can.He played over 26 min a game the last 2 seasons.If you brought him down 4 1/2 minutes a game to 22 minutes I think we’d find a pretty good defenseman.We could give him and Larsson the Burns/Vlasic treatment to maximize each other’s skill set.

    I like Klefbom as he brings things no other does on this roster such as offensive acumen in the ozone and killer 1st pass after striping the puck (Sekera does this well too)

    His warts are his warts though.

    I’d trade Russell first, but if you can upgrade 2RD with him, and the player is also an upgrade on Klef, then I’m good with it.

  188. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Andy Dufresne: What about Nuge for Ryan O’Reilly?(With whatever minor adds needed to make the deal happen)

    I’ve always liked O’Reilly a lot, but haven’t looked at him in depth recently.

    When I do I’ll post my thoughts here.

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: There’s only been 13 D in the past 13 years (including 2005 draft to 2017) that went straight from the draft into the NHL and played 25 or more games:

    #1 Aaron Ekblad (2014)
    #2 Victor Hedman (2009)
    #2 Drew Doughty (2008)
    #3 Zach Bogosian (2008)
    #4 Adam Larsson (2011)
    #4 Seth Jones (2013)
    #5 Luke Schenn (2008)
    #5 Noah Hanifin (2015)
    #8 Rasmus Ristolainen (2013)
    #12 Cam Fowler (2010)
    #14 Dmitry Kulikov (2009)
    #16 Jakob Chychrun (2016)
    #19 Luca Sbisa (2008)

    8 of them were top 5 picks. Not sure Ty Smith is the most likely to step in from this year’s crop. Dahlin, Bouchard, Dobson and Hughes all seem more likely. I think Stauffer is doing the company man thing and greasing the wheels for a few of the player who might be available at #10. He’s basically their PR guy, so he makes the picks more palatable to the fans ahead of time.

    Stauff was positing that Smith may be ready for the 2019/20 season, not this coming season.

    I don’t put any credence in to his thought’s on Smith’s NHL readiness but it does lead me to believe that he is a clear target of the organization and I think they’d draft him over Boquist.

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB: Interesting. I thought that with the NHL contract year being July 1st through June 30th, paying the bonus would have the same effect as retaining it.

    When the player is traded, the contract is traded and the cap hit runs with the contract (unless specifically retained).

  191. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure but it should be acknowledged that Klefbom was injured the entire year – he was physically limited and I think it was pretty evident that it effected his confidence and decision making.

    The numbers in the 2016/17 season tell a different story as far as possession metrics go.

    I’m not saying that Larsson doesn’t help Oscar’s game, he clearly does, but the numbers from a season where Oscar was hurt before game 1 should be taken with the acknowledgement of the same.

    The 16/17 results were put up, I’m not ignoring anything.

    If you want to respond like this then post all the pertinent results yourself.

    Seriously, I coined “Dreamy” for Klef years ago so don’t do this without coming back with what you think was missed.

  192. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m excited to see what Yawney can do with our young defence – even Larsson and Klefbom (in addition to Nurse and Benning) are still young and improving – I’d be very sad for Oscar if he didn’t get the chance to work with, and learn from, Trent Yawney.

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    I will not engage with such demanding pretentiousness.

  194. OriginalPouzar says:

    In 2016/17, Klefbom had a better C% and F% without Larsson than with him.

  195. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thats fine but he does not defend the high scoring area well hence his terrible GF%.

  196. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I will not engage with such demanding pretentiousness.

    Now that’s a good line. Me either. And clean up your room! Something smells in there!

  197. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Not sure if you’re joking because that looks awful.JDR hasn’t even scored in the minors.

    He’s career 0.42 p/gp in AHL.
    Strome is career 0.47 p/gp in NHL.

    Hmmm…

  198. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Larsson 53.4% GF w/o Klefbom is pretty important information here.

    No, it was irrellevant to his comment.

  199. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Stauff was positing that Smith may be ready for the 2019/20 season, not this coming season.

    I don’t put any credence in to his thought’s on Smith’s NHL readiness but it does lead me to believe that he is a clear target of the organization and I think they’d draft him over Boquist.

    Oh, I see. My bad. I was reading NHL-readiness as being ready for the upcoming season. And I agree that Stauffer’s comments are usually PR related and butter up the fans for what’s to come. SO mentioning Smith in this manner may at least point to him being on their radar as he should be at #10.

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