Smokin’ Aces

If you begin each poker game with an ace up your sleeve, you’ll play on through morning. If you lose with that ace up your sleeve, maybe poker isn’t for you. The Edmonton Oilers begin every offseason team-building conversation with the biggest trump in the deck. If you screw it up, it’s on you. That’s a fact.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your coffee. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

The article from whence this came is Terry Jones’ item here, please click on the link as it is within my 24-hour rule. I have a top 10 list of possible ‘one significant on-ice moves’:

  1. Oscar Klefbom is heading to Boston.
  2. The No. 10 overall pick is headed out of town
  3. Justin Faulk is an Oiler!
  4. Milan Lucic asked for a trade.
  5. Ryan Strome is being dealt
  6. Jesse Puljujarvi is being traded.
  7. Ryan O’Reilly, come on down, you’re an Oiler!
  8. My God, they’ve signed Ilya Kovalchuk Lennart Petrell
  9. There’s a player named Antus Pontberg and the Oilers have signed him!
  10. Marc Pouliot is coming back to the NHL!

The Condors signed five yesterday to AHL deals and there’s some nice talent here. Day is an intriguing defenseman, Polei has shown promise and Christoffer hangs around at the end of his entry deal. The other two players would appear to be ECHL regulars eligible for recall this coming season.

I’m a big fan of Button’s list, he delivers a unique and thoughtful list and has the courage of his convictions. If you’re an Oilers fan, you might want to have a very close look at the rankings. Here’s Edmonton’s list and Button’s rankings from one year ago.

Edmonton drafts five of Button’s top 90 picks, they all have fine seasons and are signed 12 months later. When was the last time the Oilers had the discipline to avoid walkabout through pick No. 146? Long time, if ever. Button had Edmonton’s 2016 draft mostly surrounded as well:

Once again the Oilers grab five of Button’s top 90, although in cock-eyed fashion and out of order (with a walkabout pick at No. 84). Perhaps that’s part of the discipline Keith Gretzky brings (trust your board, but drafting from second tier leagues should be reserved for the truly gifted until the CHL et cetera have been exhausted) to the group.

ULTIMATE TRUMP CARD

The Jones article suggests we’re going to see some action soon, that tells me we can expect news right after the Stanley Cup is over. We’ve discussed it forever, but the assets Peter Chiarelli could move out without getting someone to waive their NMC (Nuge, Klefbom, Puljujarvi, No. 10 overall) are bad ideas individually and cumulatively.

Trading two years of Jordan Eberle is not the same thing as trading five years of Oscar Klefbom, who is playing under a fabulous contract. If the Oilers go whale hunting, with the current depth chart and prospect pipeline, we’ll be talking about being top heavy and dealing Leon Draisaitl one year from now. This team needs value contracts in the $1 to $3 million dollar range, about six of them please and thanks. RFN.

I bet this is a player of interest for Edmonton. Not sure of the price and Florida is a different team (in terms of what they might be looking for) than they have been in the past, interesting opportunity.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are live from The Ranch this morning at the TSN1260 Annual Golf Tournament. It’s always a blast and we’ll give you the flavor of the day from 10-noon. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll chat about that Terry Jones item, and about possible targets for summer via trade, free agency and the draft.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. TSN1260’s World Cup coverage is just over one week away, Paul will handicap the pools and we’ll preview the Saturday round table (a massive World Cup show coming this weekend).
  • Eric Fawcett, Press Basketball. The Finals continue this evening, can Lebron will the Cavs to one victory and is it tonight? Plus Raptors coaching and the summer to come.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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211 Responses to "Smokin’ Aces"

« Older Comments
  1. Ari says:

    Lowetide: And clean up your room! Something smells in there!

    I literally told my stepson that exact same comment earlier this week!

  2. Lowetide says:

    Ari: I literally told my stepson that exact same comment earlier this week!

    Oldie but goodie! 🙂

  3. Oz says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Dammit I thought I had this copy and paste stuff figured out.
    1. Adam Boqvist
    2. 3 x 3/75M
    3. 2 x 1.75M
    4. 3 x2.75M
    5. Marody Yamamoto
    6. No
    7. Ryan Strome – at least I hope so
    8. Leon D
    9. Leon D
    10. All on the roster
    11. one – Milan L
    12 Tavares – and for the oilers a RS D

  4. rickithebear says:

    Jaxon: leadfarmer,

    VOR, I think your facts are wrong. Of the 18 Rankings I’ve tracked Boqvist is higher and tighter.

    Farabee: 5,8,9,10,10,10,11,11,11,11,12,12,12,13,14,15,15,27
    Boqvist: 4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9,9,12

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

    Who is ranked higher and tighter and therefore (by your own argument) has the lowest potential for bust? I think by your argument, Boqvist does.
    Who is ranked lower and has more variance and therefore (by your own argument) more potential for bust?I think by your argument, Farabee does.

    Also, when I was trying to isolate best producers of primary points and who takes those points with them to have a successful NHL career, there was one stat besides Primary Points / minute that eliminated players. That stat was 5-on-5 TOI. There is a noticeable line in the sand of around 13.75 minutes. That line takes many bust drafts out of the picture and leaves you with mostly stars. Farabee’s TOI was below that line by half a minute.

    TOP Players with Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts above 25.75 , and 5-on-5 TOI ABOVE 13.74 (CHL since 2005, and USHL since 2016).
    YEARName“AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP6TOI”
    2005Sidney Crosby48.18
    2015Connor McDavid44.02
    2018Andrei Svechnikov38.80
    2015Mitchell Marner37.49
    2015Dylan Strome36.80
    2014Robby Fabbri33.93
    2007Patrick Kane32.41
    2013Nathan MacKinnon30.49
    2014Sam Bennett30.15
    2014Spencer Watson30.10
    2010Taylor Hall29.83
    2013Nicolas Petan29.48
    2016Pierre-Luc Dubois29.43
    2016Alex DeBrincat29.20
    2016Cameron Morrison29.13
    2016Adam Mascherin29.04
    2008Steven Stamkos28.87
    2009Scott Glennie28.83
    2018Oliver Wahlstrom28.79
    2013Jonathan Drouin28.62
    2010Tyler Seguin28.53
    2011Ryan Strome28.11
    2006Chris Stewart28.11
    2009Evander Kane28.10
    2005Bobby Ryan28.02
    2017Owen Tippett27.81
    2018Jonathan Gruden27.62
    2017Nick Suzuki26.98
    2009John Tavares26.74
    2010TylerToffoli26.72
    2014NickRitchie26.42
    2014Nikolaj Ehlers26.06
    2008Tyler Ennis26.04
    2014LeonDraisaitl25.93

    TOP 34 Players with Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts above 25.75 , and 5-on-5 TOI BELOW 13.74 (CHL since 2005, and USHL since 2016).
    YEARName“AGE & ERA ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP6TOI”
    2008Eric O’Dell34.43
    2018Joel Farabee32.23
    2007Sam Gagner32.22
    2006Bobby Hughes30.95
    2006Riley Holzapfel30.48
    2013Oliver Bjorkstrand29.14
    2006John Hughes28.95
    2015Zachary Senyshyn28.68
    2014Andrew Mangiapane28.45
    2007Stefan Legein28.20
    2017Jacob Tortora27.85
    2010Justin Shugg27.73
    2007Dale Mitchell27.72
    2008Greg Nemisz27.66
    2005Devin Setoguchi27.02
    2015Blake Speers26.97
    2006Codey Burki26.69
    2017Ivan Lodnia26.48
    2005Daniel Ryder26.44
    2010Austin Watson26.07
    2013Max Domi26.01

    There is a lot of questionable prospects on that second list even though their junior numbers were astronomical. It’s quite damning to be on the second list. Even the ones who made the NHL have been plagued with character and consistency questions for most of their career.

    I’ll give you that there are always outliers but it is a very real red flag in my opinion.

    Age and league adjusted NHLE has been my stick since 07-08
    Everyone has fought me on this up to now.
    So they are not going to accept your data since it has been rejected for 10 years.

    Have always used that as step one for draft eligible forwards.
    You picked an accurate line in the sand.
    Most on here have zero potential to do that.
    You are already ahead of woodguy s failed thought process.
    It copies, borrowed , my concept but is highly inaccurate.

    I hand calculated 6 -10 teams WOWY from game log and shift charts before WOWY was available in a data base.
    Showing the best gf and ga fwd pairs as well as the best +ve Gosl dif pairs in comp, team groups.
    I did not present the best pairs +ve goal dif relative to 512 situation baseline ((avg.)
    Can you imagine that attempt years ago.
    Please do not use %.

    When looking at prospects for draft or trade.
    Look at thier results against 5e best on the deep teams.
    The unit differential is a great starting point.
    Then WOWY by pairs.
    When you look at Hamilton’s # it was a elite comp unit failure.
    His numbers repeated.

    When you adjust (subtract) goal dif for goalie performance above HDsh (annual shot chart) ave% avg established. ( exclusion of situational affect)
    He is a negative nightmare.

    Keep on keeping on.

  5. Ryan says:

    Justthestatsman: Except Garth is still on the NYI payroll.Maybe Lou’s new job description for himis “Special Assistant in Charge of Fleecing Pete”

    Wasn’t McPhee a paid advisor to snow before becoming the GM for Vegas?

  6. digger50 says:

    Jaxon: Oh, I see. My bad. I was reading NHL-readiness as being ready for the upcoming season. And I agree that Stauffer’s comments are usually PR related and butter up the fans for what’s to come. SO mentioning Smith in this manner may at least point to him being on their radar as he should be at #10.

    In my original post I also thought he was talking the use coming season. Makes no difference what we think, it’s a tell. And if they can get a dman who will arrive sooner rather than later they can think about signing a forward in free agency.

    On a separate note. Peter has been fairly up front. It would be out of character for him to say no big moves, just small upgrades and then turn around and trade Klefbom who I would think the Org would not consider a small move at all. A little bit out of character.

    What are chances Peter has an ace up his sleeve after all – and that is a way out of a poor contract. So contract for a contract, change the ingredients. That could be Sekera. (Or Lucic)

    I also find it strange the Org has never really mentions upcoming cap constraints, matter of fact they seem very unconcerned. Again, wonder if there is an out on one of those contracts.

    I’m very interested to see how this plays out.

  7. Ribs says:

    Can’t get over the mitts on Kotkaniemi. I hope there’s some way the Oilers can nab him.

    Make it happen, Chiarelli!

    Google tells me the Habs, Wings, and Blackhawks invited him out to dinner at the combine. All of them pick before the Oilers. This may require some trickery, Peter!

    I still have some players to look at, but damn. He sticks out like a sore thumb so far. His skating looks a little suspect, but there’s plenty of top six forwards in the NHL that are similar or worse. I think his other attributes will make up for it. Super high skill there.

    I admit I’m afraid of the defencemen that will be available at this point in the draft order. If you don’t hit a home run, you could be devastating the McDavid cluster.

  8. rickithebear says:

    LT: off your ten:
    1. Klefbom – Puljujarvi for Kessel
    2. Nooooo cheap 3 yr slide.
    3. Faulk 6’5” 223lb UFA 50gm 1evg 7 Eva 8 Evp -3
    4. Lucic 6m + Nurse RFA + #10 for Ryan 7.25m LW + #4
    First 3 OTT
    76gm 21g 32a 52p; 2.54sh/gm; 10.7sh%
    16evg 24eva 40evp +1; 5ppg 8ppa 13ppp
    Last 2 yr Ott
    62gm 12g 17a 29p: 1.80 sh/gm; 10.8sh%
    5. No
    6. Klefbom – Puljujarvi For Kessel 6.8m – 1.2 retained by TOR
    7. O,Reilly 7.5M
    76gm 22g 37a 59p -13; 11.3 sh%; 59.0 FO%
    11 evg 24eva 35evp; 10 ppg 13ppa 23 ppp; 1 SHG 1shp
    Strome RFA
    76gm 13G 19a 32p -6; 10.0sh%; 42.7 FO%
    11evg 14 Eva 25 Evp; 2 ppg 5 ppa 7ppp
    8. Cole, DeHaan, Sustr
    9. Great our #3/4 LW
    10. I would take ????

    18-19 to 25-26 (9yr to UFA)
    Mcdavid, Yamamoto, Samakorov, Maksimov,
    18-19 to 24-25 (8yr to ufa)
    Draisaitl, Benson, Skinner
    18-19 to 23-24 (7 yr to ufa)

    18-19 to 22-23 (6yr to ufa)
    Laggesson,
    ———————————-
    18-19 to 21-22 (5yr to ufa)
    Kessel, Ryan, Khaira, DeHaan, Betker
    18-19 20-21 (4yr to UFA)
    RNH, Strome, aberg, Caggulia,
    Larsson, Sekera, Russell, Cole, Benning, Persson
    18-19 to 19-20 (2 yr to ufa)
    Rattie, Kassian, Lowe

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ribs:
    Can’t get over the mitts on Kotkaniemi. I hope there’s some way the Oilers can nab him.

    Make it happen, Chiarelli!

    Google tells me the Habs, Wings, and Blackhawks invited him out to dinner at the combine. All of them pick before the Oilers. This may require some trickery, Peter!

    I still have some players to look at, but damn. He sticks out like a sore thumb so far. His skating looks a little suspect, but there’s plenty of top six forwards in the NHL that are similar or worse. I think his other attributes will make up for it. Super high skill there.

    I admit I’m afraid of the defencemen that will be available at this point in the draft order. If you don’t hit a home run, you could be devastating the McDavid cluster.

    I’ve got no issue drafting Kotkaniemi, however, I’m not so sure he’s a player that we should be trading up for. I mean, if he’s available at 10, great, however, is the bet on him so solid that its worth an extra asset to trade up for when there will be other very very good bets available at 10 (especially if Kotkaniemi does indeed get picked in the top 9 and someone drops)?

  10. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve got no issue drafting Kotkaniemi, however, I’m not so sure he’s a player that we should be trading up for. I mean, if he’s available at 10, great, however, is the bet on him so solid that its worth an extra asset to trade up for when there will be other very very good bets available at 10 (especially if Kotkaniemi does indeed get picked in the top 9 and someone drops)?

    Absolutely agree.

  11. Ribs says:

    I guess it depends on the ask and how much you believe in the kid.

    It looks like he’s moving up into the top ten in everyone’s lists.

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