Strange Brew

The 1979-80 Oilers were a discombobulated crew and that’s being kind. Expansion left the team with gaping holes hither and yon, while also gifting the organization with some of the most outstanding building blocks in history. It was a strange brew and Glen Sather cast about looking for solutions. Despite the script that was actually written, Rome wasn’t built in a day. Fall and winter 1979-80 saw a lot of exits and entries.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great playoff special! try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. Offer is here. There’s a 7-day free trial and the cost for an annual subscription is less than one (or two) coffee per month, depending on where you buy your coffee. We have a mountain of good reading to come in the next 30 days at The Athletic Edmonton, including draft coverage, prospect updates and reaction to the deals of summer. Join us, for the Oilers coverage, stay for all of the other brilliant writing on the site.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers free-agent prospect procurement isn’t aiming high enough (will link)
  • New Black Dog: Getting old, in and out of hockey
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

THE OILERS PROCUREMENT MADNESS

The Sather-Larry Gordon Oilers were grabbing players from everywhere, as established teams grabbed back players who had been lost to WHA raids in exchange for extra prospects they didn’t need and would never employ. Edmonton made a deal with Minnesota to stay away from Paul Shmyr (a pretty good defenseman) and received the draft pick spent on Glenn Anderson. It was the wild west of NHL transaction history, anything could happen and often did happen.

Edmonton sent a second-round pick to Montreal for Dave Lumley and Dan Newman, big break for them with Lumley scoring 20 goals as an NHL rookie in ’79-’80. Oilers traded Joe Micheletti (another defenseman) to St. Louis for Risto Siltanen and Tom Roulston. In December, Edmonton traded Dan Newman and acquired Bobby Schmautz, who was a veteran winger with a monster shot. Schmautz hated it and the club sent him away quickly. In March Edmonton dealt Cam Connor (who was a helluva player, big power forward) for Donny Murdoch who looked like an Osmond and scored like a Rolling Stone but Murdoch didn’t score for Edmonton.

Lumley, Schmautz, Murdoch and they drafted Glenn Anderson. By the next fall, Anderson and Jari Kurri were both NHL rookies and 12 months after the expansion draft Edmonton owned three damned good right wingers (Kurri, Anderson, Lumley) who would all win Stanley. Looks like a smooth transition now, but at the time it was pure chaos. We were all worried about Blair MacDonald’s contract, Slats sent him away for 12 salmon and a pack of Certs.

EARLY 1979-80

My recall of the Oilers’ lines in that inaugural NHL season were Brett Callighen—Wayne Gretzky—Blair MacDonald, Mark Messier—Stan Weir—Dave Lumley and then Dave Hunter—Ron Chipperfield—Bill Flett. Peter Driscoll was on the team, Dave Semenko, Cam Connor. Bruce McCurdy probably remembers these lines better than I do, but Messier played quite a bit with Weir that year and the top line for sure ran together often.

EARLY 2018-19

Ty Rattie is about the same age as Dave Lumley was in 1979 fall, although a far different player. Rattie is a one dimensional winger but the dimension he owns is goal-scoring and that’s one of the best cards in the deck. The Oilers have a bunch of Lumley and Murdoch types, some of whom (Anton Slepyshev) are already gone. I’ve suggested and written about Austin Czarnik and Daniel Sprong and Nic Petan, but the reality of the situation is that it’ll probably come down to draft picks like Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto—just as it did in 1980 when Kurri and Anderson ripped it up as rookies.

As I haven’t compiled a list of ‘inexpensive options who could push for NHL jobs’ it might be a good idea to publish one to see the range that might be out there. Some of these names will be familiar to you but the thrust of this segment is to put all the names in one place.

RAIDING THE AHL

  1. R Daniel Sprong, Pittsburgh Penguins. An inexpensive winger young enough to grow with the group, he was among the league leaders in AHL shots per game (3.29) and goals (32). Excellent skater, strong fit.
  2. RC Austin Czarnik, Boston Bruins. He’ll be a free agent July 1, and was among the top scorers in the AHL this past season. On the power play, he scored 13 goals in 64 games.
  3. R Nikita Soshnikov, St. Louis Blues. An intriguing player, shoots left but plays right wing. Prospect-stats.com estimates he scored 2.79 points-per-game at 5×5 last season.
  4. R Connor Brown, Toronto Maple Leafs. Solid young winger with some NHL experience, he also played with Connor McDavid in Erie.
  5. L Warren Foegele, Carolina Hurricanes. Big forward with skill and two-way acumen, he appears to be an emerging player but the Hurricanes are in a period of transition so maybe he shakes loose.
  6. L Andreas Johnsson, Toronto Maple Leafs. Not one chance in hell he shakes loose but it would be a damned good day if he did. Maybe Babcock won’t like him but he’s building a stunning resume.
  7. L Nic Petan, Winnipeg Jets. Undersized and very creative, he would be an interesting alternative offensively to Drake Caggiula. Blocked six ways to Sunday in the Winnipeg organization.
  8. W Peter Cehlarik, Boston Bruins. Big forward with skill, more playmaker than shooter but he can score goals.
  9. LC Lucas Wallmark, Carolina Hurricanes. I liked him on draft day and he has developed into a solid prospect. Nice range of skills.

It still looks that way to me after the signing of Patrick Russell and trade that brought Nolan Vesey into the organization. Is Tyler Benson ahead of Vesey on Peter Chiarelli’s whiteboard? His age should give him the early edge, but the trade yesterday doesn’t look like an NHL solution. Edmonton is being very aggressive in procurement, but there are miles to go before morning. Without a pile of green to attract big name free agents, signing Austin Czarnik or dealing for Peter Cehlarik may be the prudent way to go this summer.

Bakersfield Condors site has a nice tracker for their roster, this is a dandy page and worth a bookmark. It has signing dates and notes the NHL contracts. Well done.

 

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103 Responses to "Strange Brew"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think they Benson will receive any NHL time this season (this porpoise this but it’s time to allow players the time to develop in the proper leagues), however, he is so far ahead of Vesey on boards of all colors.

    Benson is likely to have an NHL career whereas Vesey is the most distant of all bells.

  2. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Didn’t get a chance to post this yesterday: It’s the summertime Hunter pool.

    – Winner gets a donation to LT. I’ll keep posting untill the draft (or no more entries!)

    What will the Oilers do (not what should they do, or what you would do!)?:

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive Edmonton off-season FA signing?: bonus if you get multiple right

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sprong would be a fantastic add but he will cost, I’m sure – I was hopeful to get someone like him in the Maroon deadline deal but higher end NHL ready prospects aren’t for sale at a discount.

    Czarnik looks like the only reasonable option from that list and he’s be a very nice add.

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    The youngest AHLers:

    Name * * * * * * * * Pos * * Age * * P1/GP
    Andrew Mangiapane * LW ** 21.5 ** 0.67
    Nicolas Aube-Kubel * RW ** 21.4 ** 0.56
    Dylan Strome * * C * * 20.5 * * 0.43
    Warren Foegele * * F * * 21.5 ** 0.49
    Brendan Lemieux * * LW ** 21.5 ** 0.41
    Daniel Sprong * * RW ** 20.5 ** 0.43
    Mason Appleton * * C * * 21.7 ** 0.46
    Alexander Volkov * * LW * * 20.1 ** 0.32
    Dryden Hunt * * LW * * 21.8 * * 0.43
    Matthew Highmore * LW ** 21.6 ** 0.39
    Mitchell Stephens * C ** 20.6 ** 0.34
    Mathieu Joseph * * RW * * 20.6 ** 0.39
    Giovanni Fiore * * LW * * 21.1 ** 0.32
    Gabriel Gagne * * RW * * 20.8 ** 0.30

    I assume “age” is at the start of this past season.

  5. Maple_Hoser says:

    1. BUF – Dahlin
    2. CAR – Svechnikov
    3. MTL – Zadina

    4. OTT – Tkachuk
    5. ARI – Boqvist

    6. DET – Hughes
    7. VAN – Bouchard
    8/9 – Whalstrom/Dobson

    The top three are more or less solidified. There may be some movement at 4-6 but for the most part I can see those players going at those positions. After that I think it opens up.

    Expect the unexpected. Will there be a radical move in the top five? Knowing the history of drafts, there’s a team likely to go off the board within the top ten. Let’s just hope it’s not Edmonton…

    From what I’ve seen/read if they get the selection of these three I would go…

    1. Bouchard
    2. Whalstrom
    3. Dobson

    If one of these players landed on the number ten spot, the Oilers could really bolster their prospect pool. I imagine they could land a skilled player high in the second round as well.

    Who are you leaning on at 10 Lowetide?

  6. dustrock says:

    Unless it’s all smoke and I’m not sure why they need the smoke, except to explore trade options, but even Zadina has commented on Montreal taking a C or D.

    Habs are the biggest wild card here.

  7. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Imagining what PC will do is a depressing exercise but here it comes:

    1) Ty Smith
    2) 2x$4mil
    3) 1x$2.5mil
    4) Traded
    5) None on opening night roster.
    6) No.
    7) Drai
    8) McD
    9) Khaira
    10) Russell:Gryba
    11) 2 trades, one involves Strome
    12) James Neal, Matt Calvert

  8. Maple_Hoser says:

    dustrock,

    I think so as well, this could be similar to Columbus when they took Luc Dubois over Puljujarvi. I think they’d lose a ton of ground though if they opted to select Kotkaniemi or Veleno who are true centres. They could go for D but Zadina/Tkachuk’s value, I think, is higher than Boqvist’s.

    It should be an interesting draft none the less!

  9. 36 percent body fat says:

    Hmmm funny thing about Johnsson was I remember this guy at the draft. Oilers could have had numerous times in the draft but went for size and grit again instead of skill. His stats screamed offense but again after decades of proving the oilers knew nothing about drafting they stuck to thinking they were smarter than everyone else.

    It is simple, draft skill. The odds are better and the reward is better. Think would you rather have found Kucherov late in the draft with the low side a 30% chance of the player making the nhl and being palat or would you rather hope for a Lucic in his prime with the low side being 5% chance to play in the nhl and he is moroz.

    Friggen oilers

  10. John Chambers says:

    Admiral Ackbar:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Matt Calvert

    Y’ever woke up in a calvert? After a nightlong dance with Lady Liquor?

  11. Bank Shot says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Hmmm funny thing about Johnsson was I remember this guy at the draft.Oilers could have had numerous times in the draft but went for size and grit again instead of skill. His stats screamed offense but again after decades of proving the oilers knew nothing about drafting they stuck to thinking they were smarter than everyone else.

    It is simple, draft skill.The odds are better and the reward is better.Think would you rather have found Kucherov late in the draft with the low side a 30% chance of the player making the nhl and being palat or would you rather hope for a Lucic in his prime with the low side being 5% chance to play in the nhl and he is moroz.

    Friggen oilers

    The Oilers scouts are terrible at drafting for skill though. It’s not like they haven’t made any skill picks. Syvret, Chorney, Rajala, Shremp, Gagner, Omark, etc.

    Every single one has flamed out.

    Seems like they are only good at picking grit guys such as Brodziak, Reider, Davidson, Khaira.

  12. Admiral Ackbar says:

    John Chambers: Y’ever woke up in a calvert? After a nightlong dance with Lady Liquor?

    My memory fails me…. I rely on the memories, to a fault, of my friends.

  13. dustrock says:

    I posted on twitter yesterday using Dellow’s idea for trading the #10 for Detroit’s #30, 33 and 36.

    Thoughts?

    Blue Bullet Brad said based his work it’s somewhere between value for the 11th or 12th and suggested the Isles could trade 12 & 72 for 30,33 and 36 and that would be good value.

    Normally I get that trading down doesn’t work if you’re giving up elite talent but we don’t have a top 3 pick, it’s the 10th.

    This draft is so wacky from about #15-45 that I wonder if we could get 4 pretty great prospects from 30,33, 36 and 40 rather than just 10 and 40.

    If we could grab say Addison, Wise and Bokk is that better than grabbing Smith or Boqvist?

  14. 36 percent body fat says:

    Bank Shot,

    so Gagner dint flame out, he is still a competent NHLer and was drafted in range, and despite not living up to his potential has achieved things other first round picks could only hope for, (sam bennett cough cough) The problem is he and hemsky weren’t surrounded for the next 3 years with competent players. That hurt his development. With the other skilled players you said, they flamed out because the oilers were not playing a skilled system. It was still based on grit. And they are still doing it. We lost slepyshev who was larger, better shooter and more skilled than caggulia (who is junk) because of Grit. Puljijarvi is sitting behind him too. Why? Tobias Reider is an NHLer, Where are all out late round picks? oh they are some where either in brooklyn in a boxing ring, or in powerskating lessons learning how to skate.

    Draft skill, develop slow, and trade for nhl players,

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    LT,

    How about Matthew Peca out of TB’s AHL system? UFA this summer. Good in an NHL cup of coffee.

    Him, Pateryn, and Chris Wideman would be hard targets for me considering their cap flexibility

  16. Brantford Boy says:

    dustrock,

    In theory this isn’t a terrible idea… however, the value of those 3 picks would be greater than the #10… I’ve lost track who originally posted it but there are tables with assigned values (points) to each pick, say #10 is 400pts, those other 3 picks might have a combined value of 700 points… obviously that would be an overpay… with all that said, probably wise to select the highest skilled player on the board…

  17. supernova says:

    Nice list of AHL players

    I would circle Tampa & Carolina systems to try to acquire a player from

    Matthew Peca might be interesting,

    Or shooting a little higher up for a prospect like Stephens, Joseph or another Tampa doesn’t have a ton coming on Defence, so a prospect like Jones might get us a decent forward in return

    If Carolina goes about turning over there roster like usually happens in Regime changes they have about 8/9 guys I would love to see on our AHL team

  18. Woogie63 says:

    What makes a scout? On the Oilers is might be who you know?

    Chiarelli (Brother)
    Holmberg (Step-son)
    McLellan (is there a connection?)
    Messier (Brother)

    Gretzky (Brother)
    MacTavish (Friend of KLow)
    Howson (Friend of MacT)

  19. leadfarmer says:

    Brantford Boy,

    Yeah but those numbers use 200 nhl games as a marker of success. Making them useless.

  20. dustrock says:

    Brantford Boy:
    dustrock,

    In theory this isn’t a terrible idea… however, the value of those 3 picks would be greater than the #10… I’ve lost track who originally posted it but there are tables with assigned values (points) to each pick, say #10 is 400pts, those other 3 picks might have a combined value of 700 points… obviously that would be an overpay… with all that said, probably wise to select the highest skilled player on the board…

    Well I took the idea from Dellow’s article at The Athletic, and Blue Bullet Brad’s response was that 30,33 and 36 wasn’t enough for the 10.

    @BlueBullet1981: @dustrock @dellowhockey Based on my value chart, that package is fair value for the 13th pick.

    Based on the fact that I think one of my top 8 ranked players on my list could be available at 10, I wouldn’t do the trade.

    @BlueBullet1981: @dustrock @dellowhockey Using my partially completed 2018 draft rankings, that package is too little for the 11th overall pick but too good for the 12th.

    A fair trade for that package is the Islanders trading the 12th and 72nd.

  21. Woogie63 says:

    Capfriendly is reporting VGK are exempt from a “Seattle” expansion draft.

    Great city, $30M in cap space, lots of draft picks and unlimited NMC, NTC that is a big stick to get the top UFA.

  22. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Long time, no comment. Time to get back in the groove. Been reading the blog but not devouring / adding to the comments section in my accustomed fashion.

    First of all, “looked like an Osmond, scored like a Rolling Stone” is the best line I have read in a while. Outstanding. Also, truth.

    As for the lines in Year One, it may have taken a bit of time for it to come together, but the second line for most of that campaign was the “Gang Green” of Hunter-Weir-Lumley. So named by Lumley due to the green pinneys they wore in practice (each line had its own colour) & the funny play on words. They were a helluva second line that year, combining for 65 goals and 102 assists with each man solidly in the plus. That’s a long way back from the 120 goals & 169 helpers the GMC** Line provided, but very good.

    (**Don Ashby added a further 10-9-19 in 18 games down the stretch after Callighen sufferd a horrible eye injury. Ashby was acquired in a great trade deadline deal, one-for-one for the ineffective, sulking Bobby Schmautz in a trade that was both addition AND subtraction.)

    Oilers issues were in the bottom 6. Not enough forward depth. 18-year-old Messier played a lot with Chipperfield before the deadline & with his cousin Osmond-Jagger after it, mostly at LW.

    An under-recognized contributor to that club was Doug Hicks, who led the defence corps with 40 points & the entire team with +18 in what would be a career year for the then 24-year-old. He looked for all the world like a building block but was never able to replicate his calibre of play from that first real crack with an “expansion” team. He would have looked right at home on this year’s Vegas club in terms of going from fringe player to solid contributor.

  23. jeetz says:

    1 Adam Boqvist
    2 4.0 x 7year
    3 1-5 x 2 year
    4 2.75 x 4 year
    5 Marody and Bear ( the answer should be no)
    6 no
    7 Vancouver Brandon Sutter
    8 McDavid
    9 someone on the Condors
    10 all defenders will be on roster and healthy
    11 this season: 7, Lucic to Vancouver 1.25 retained for 3rd round pick
    12 Michael Grabner 1.5 x 3 year

  24. Brantford Boy says:

    dustrock: A fair trade for that package is the Islanders trading the 12th and 72nd.

    This is much closer to what I would say my quick research showed… another example was trading our 10th for Philly’s two first rounders (14 & 19, off the top of my head), and we would still need to sweeten the deal as those 2 picks had more “value points” than our 1 pick alone… the debate at the time was would the 3rd round pick be enough or not, or would it take the 2nd rounder… I think the consensus was no way for the 2nd, maybe do it for the 3rd…

    leadfarmer: Yeah but those numbers use 200 nhl games as a marker of success. Making them useless.

    As for the 200 NHL game comment I’m not sure this had anything to do with those “point values” for draft prospects… I wish I had kept the table…

  25. Alpine says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1. Brady Tkachuk
    2. 8 years x 4.75 mil AAV
    3. 2 years x 2 mil AAV
    4. 2 years x 3 mil AAV
    5. Benson gets a look before being sent down
    6. Mark Hunter in some sort of shadow GM role
    7. Kevin Hayes in NY
    8. Draisaitl
    9. Tyler Vesel
    10. Klefbom
    11. Two. Klefbom for Barrie. Lucic with salary retained and a couple 3rd round picks to NYR for Beleskey
    12. Filppula or Komarov

  26. leadfarmer says:

    Woogie63:
    Capfriendly is reporting VGK are exempt from a “Seattle” expansion draft.

    Great city, $30M in cap space, lots of draft picks and unlimited NMC, NTC that is a big stick to get the top UFA.

    Well exempt from losing a player but also exempt from their cut of the 500 mil fee. Although with how good of a season they had thats probably not an issue

  27. texmex says:

    31 thoughts

    22. We’re dealing with some verbal semantics when it comes to Milan Lucic in Edmonton.

    I’d heard rumours he’d asked for a trade, but that was denied. However, it’s clear he and the Oilers are working together to gauge interest. It doesn’t look like an easy trade to make without taking back a big contract, but the team seems confident there will be a fit.

  28. McNuge93 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Long time, no comment. Time to get back in the groove. Been reading the blog but not devouring / adding to the comments section in my accustomed fashion.

    First of all, “looked like an Osmond, scored like a Rolling Stone” is the best line I have read in a while. Outstanding. Also, truth.

    As for the lines in Year One, it may have taken a bit of time for it to come together, but the second line for most of that campaign was the “Gang Green” of Hunter-Weir-Lumley. So named by Lumley due to the green pinneys they wore in practice (each line had its own colour) & the funny play on words. They were a helluva second line that year, combining for 65 goals and 102 assists with each man solidly in the plus. That’s a long way back from the 120 goals & 169 helpers the GMC** Line provided, but very good.

    (**Don Ashby added a further 10-9-19 in 18 games down the stretch after Callighen sufferd a horrible eye injury. Ashby was acquired in a great trade deadline deal, one-for-one for the ineffective, sulking Bobby Schmautz in a trade that was both addition AND subtraction.)

    Oilers issues were in the bottom 6. Not enough forward depth. 18-year-old Messier played a lot with Chipperfield before the deadline & with his cousin Osmond-Jagger after it, mostly at LW.

    An under-recognized contributor to that club was Doug Hicks, who led the defence corps with 40 points & the entire team with +18 in what would be a career year for the then 24-year-old. He looked for all the world like a building block but was never able to replicate his calibre of play from that first real crack with an “expansion” team. He would have looked right at home on this year’s Vegas club in terms of going from fringe player to solid contributor.

    Exciting times. I had a share of season tickets. Remember a slow start to the season but in the last half of the year Gretz lit it up and the Oilers made a run to scrape into the playoffs. And it just had me thinking about Puljujarvi. There was a very young highly talented Oiler back then that looked pretty disappointing for a couple of years until he broke out. That was Mark Messier.

  29. LadiesloveSmid says:

    texmex:
    31 thoughts

    22. We’re dealing with some verbal semantics when it comes to Milan Lucic in Edmonton.

    I’d heard rumours he’d asked for a trade, but that was denied. However, it’s clear he and the Oilers are working together to gauge interest. It doesn’t look like an easy trade to make without taking back a big contract, but the team seems confident there will be a fit.

    D Brown, Phaneuf, Backes, Perry, Dubinsky, Ryan, Gaborik, Andrew McDonald, Frans Nielsen, Abdelkader, Dekeyser, Bogosian, Zajac, Eriksson, Gudbranson, Zaitsev, Goligoski, M Staal, Darling, Ladd.

    Trying to brainstorm big contracts they could make deals around.

    Letang, Weber, Hanzal, Foligno, Keith, Boychuk may not have enough drag

  30. fifthcartel says:

    I think Lucic has asked out in some form. They’re just too much smoke.

  31. Alpine says:

    fifthcartel,

    I think so too. I mean he probably won’t be mad if he’s back here next season and the team improves. But also he would probably rather have a fresh start at this point.

  32. OiLNATION says:

    Just sign vanek, pirri and derek ryan and we should be good.

  33. digger50 says:

    How’s it going eh?

    Bruce – the Gang Green line has me thinking I wish any Oiler line could stick together to gain any type of moniker.

  34. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t think they Benson will receive any NHL time this season (this porpoise this but it’s time to allow players the time to develop in the proper leagues), however, he is so far ahead of Vesey on boards of all colors.

    Benson is likely to have an NHL career whereas Vesey is the most distant of all bells.

    For the first time in the last coule of years,Benson will have a full summer to train without injury. As a result l think he is going open a lot of eyes come training camp, the guy has a lot of talent that has been hampered by injury.

  35. YKOil says:

    dustrock:
    Unless it’s all smoke and I’m not sure why they need the smoke, except to explore trade options, but even Zadina has commented on Montreal taking a C or D.

    Habs are the biggest wild card here.

    Habs and Boqvist are the wild cards from where I sit. Habs for a centre and Boqvist before #10. Those two things happen and that #10 pick has at least high-ranked player available.

    That said, if Kotkaniemi is available at #10 I also see that as being a covetous pick for a bunch of other teams and the trade down for above-grade value a solid possibility – especially if the Isles are unsure about Tavares (which would also be a hell of a tell imo).

    I see the Isles, Dallas and Philly as being teams willing to overpay for a shot at Kotkaniemi (not the Panthers though).

    Trading Lucic would be wonderful.

  36. Oilman99 says:

    Bank Shot: The Oilers scouts are terrible at drafting for skill though. It’s not like they haven’t made any skill picks. Syvret, Chorney, Rajala, Shremp, Gagner, Omark, etc.

    Every single one has flamed out.

    Seems like they are only good at picking grit guys such as Brodziak, Reider, Davidson, Khaira.

    This is 2018, did you not pay attention to last years draft picks? The scouting staff has changed multiple times since the draft picks you’re talking about. The draft was the only good thing they did right last off season.

  37. digger50 says:

    Alpine:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1. Brady Tkachuk
    2. 8 years x 4.75 mil AAV
    3. 2 years x 2 mil AAV
    4. 2 years x 3 mil AAV
    5. Benson gets a look before being sent down
    6. Mark Hunter in some sort of shadow GM role
    7. Kevin Hayes in NY
    8. Draisaitl
    9. Tyler Vesel
    10. Klefbom
    11. Two. Klefbom for Barrie. Lucic with salary retained and a couple 3rd round picks to NYR for Beleskey
    12. Filppula or Komarov

    Would love to get Tkachuk.

    I think he’s overshadowed by his brothers poor reputation, however I think he has a similar trajectory. Very nhl ready. There is a chance a top ten forward pick or two goes to a lesser known prospect from overseas.

  38. VOR says:

    Here is Michael Schuckers 2011 paper.

    You can criticize it on many fronts but I hope you will all read it.

    The final table (which can be found in the appendices at the end of the article) is based on expected NHL games played in a career by draft selection number.

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michael_Schuckers/publication/267940067_Whats_An_NHL_Draft_Pick_Worth_A_Value_Pick_Chart_for_the_National_Hockey_League/links/55251f200cf2caf11bfd146b/Whats-An-NHL-Draft-Pick-Worth-A-Value-Pick-Chart-for-the-National-Hockey-League.pdf

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: For the first time in the last coule of years,Benson will have a full summer to train without injury. As a result l think he is going open a lot of eyes come training camp, the guy has a lot of talent that has been hampered by injury.

    Many likely forget just how touted this prospect was before injuries de-railed his development.

    Can he, once again, be that elite prospect? Probably not but you never know.

    He had a good season but not a great offensive season, year over year but even this year, at least for the first half, although playing nightly, he still wasn’t 100% healthy.

    Is he 100% healthy? I’m not sure but, if he is, maybe its a good idea to not put the middle 6 winger ceiling on him?

  40. Oilman99 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: D Brown, Phaneuf, Backes, Perry, Dubinsky, Ryan, Gaborik, Andrew McDonald, Frans Nielsen, Abdelkader, Dekeyser, Bogosian, Zajac, Eriksson, Gudbranson, Zaitsev, Goligoski, M Staal, Darling, Ladd.

    Trying to brainstorm big contracts they could make deals around.

    Letang, Weber, Hanzal, Foligno, Keith, Boychuk may not have enough drag

    Taking back a big or bigger contract solves nothing regarding the cap hell situation they are in now. Trade Lucic and retain $1.5m of his contract, and you then have room to pick up a serviceable winger in the $4m range to play with Drai.

  41. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Many likely forget just how touted this prospect was before injuries de-railed his development.

    Can he, once again, be that elite prospect?Probably not but you never know.

    He had a good season but not a great offensive season, year over year but even this year, at least for the first half, although playing nightly, he still wasn’t 100% healthy.

    Is he 100% healthy?I’m not sure but, if he is, maybe its a good idea to not put the middle 6 winger ceiling on him?

    The guy is still young enough to recover from his set backs. At least let’s HOPE.

  42. Brantford Boy says:

    VOR,

    Thanks… not sure if it was you that posted it a couple months back… the end table is the only thing that I had seen previously… so Leadfarmer would be correct, the value of the draft selection is based on 200 NHL games played…

  43. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Oilman99: Taking back a big or bigger contract solves nothing regarding the cap hell situation they are in now. Trade Lucic and retain $1.5m of his contract, and you then have room to pick up a serviceable winger in the $4m range to play with Drai.

    I wonder if they could trade Lucic to Arizona after his signing bonus. Could they staple a prospect and a pick to him and get Demers coming back the other way?

  44. VOR says:

    https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/06/01/blue-bullet-draft-pick-value-chart/

    And this is Blue Bullet Report’s attempt to correct the problems with Schuckers 2011 paper.

    It adds expected points into the calculation.

    So now you have two legs of the stool of draft value (longevity and impact).

    Next you need the likely cost of games played – the cap value of the player if you like.

  45. VOR says:

    Brantford Boy:
    VOR,

    Thanks… not sure if it was you that posted it a couple months back… the end table is the only thing that I had seen previously… so Leadfarmer would be correct, the value of the draft selection is based on 200 NHL games played…

    This paper has a detailed analysis of draft distributions including how many players exceed 200 games by round.

    The same analytical approach is used to look at games played.

    Otherwise the table has nothing to do with 200 games played thresholds. The table is based on typical career games played by draft selection number.

  46. Alpine says:

    digger50: Would love to get Tkachuk.

    I think he’s overshadowed by his brothers poor reputation, however I think he has a similar trajectory. Very nhl ready. There is a chance a top ten forward pick or two goes to a lesser known prospect from overseas.

    I really have no idea who’s gonna drop this year, but I can see a scenario where teams go for higher upside and none of Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi or Boqvist make it to us.

  47. VOR says:

    And here is a paper for people who really want to think about the draft in depth – from a brilliant young Wharton scholar

    https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1029&context=joseph_wharton_scholars

  48. digger50 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux</stron

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1. Adam Boqvist
    2. Nurse 6×4.5
    3. Benning 2×1.6
    4. Strome 3x 2.5
    5. Bear
    6. No
    7. Vancouver

    8. Leon
    9. Gambardella
    10. All are back
    11. 5 trades Gryba moved. / Lucic for Virtanen / Derrek Ryan / Pontus moved / AHL acquisition (Petan)
    12. Maroon 2.8 and Grabner 1.8

  49. blainer says:

    Kinger ..

    1) Kotkaniemi
    2) 6 years x 4.8 mil AAV
    3) 2 years x 1.8 mil AAV
    4) 2 years x 3.2 mil AAV
    5) Marody
    6) No
    7) Traded to Vancouver
    8) CMD
    9) Drai
    10) Benning
    11) Lucic and Benning to Van for Eriksson Stetcher and a third rounder
    12) Tyler Bozak ( 3×4 mil AAV )

    Eriksson will need to waive his NTC and I think Vancouver would be high on getting Lucic. But will he waive to go to a non contender like the Canucks. We wait..

    This is not what I’m hoping for but is my best guess as to what will happen.

  50. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    fifthcartel:
    I think Lucic has asked out in some form. They’re just too much smoke.

    – All things being equal, Edmonton has a lot of challenges for a late-20’s early 30’s family making millions of dollars, especially if you aren’t from the area.

    – Sure some might prefer Edmonton in the Winter to SoCal, but that’s minority: the restaurants, the weather, the shopping, the neighbourhoods, surrounding areas, culture, beautiful people, fun etc. Edmonton’s not the playground for the young and rich and gorgeous like a lot of other NHL towns.

    – Katz for instance: he’s pimping it up in L.A. (with the young and gorgeous)

    – If your family is unhappy with a living situation, it doesn’t matter how much money your making.

    – I suspect all sides are trying to find a way out. Not an ideal situation: brutual year, stuff in the background, etc, Lucic’s been through a lot, class guy

    * the problem though is Lucic next year is likely going to be much better than whatever return we get for the Lucic of this year: sh%tty if true he gets moved: would hurt this org a lot in terms of lost costs

  51. VOR says:

    So we could combine all this research with understanding of team need and make some inspired guesses about cap value and use that information to broaden our discussion of possible trades.

    Say Peter phones up Jeff and says, “How about #10 for #26, #28, and Neal Pionk?”

    Jeff presumably says, “Go screw yourself. How about #10 for #26, #28, and a third rounder.”

    Peter asks, for #26, #28, and #39.

    Jeff counters with #26, #28, and #48.

    Peter goes, “Well you know the more I think about the more I think I need a player back, and it really needs to be a right handed D.”

    “You sneaky bastard you want Anthony Deangelo.”

    So #10 for #26, #28, and Anthony Deangelo. Do you do it? We do have two tools for extracting value from Deangelo. Trent Yawney and Anthony very good friend and probable defensive partner Darnell Nurse.

    If Schuckers is right that you can use modified draft table values to rate trades and Blue Bullet is right in terms of determining those draft values the Oiler win the deal by a nose. If Namita is right they have better odds of a good draft outcome with more 1st round picks.

    On balance the Oilers probably do it, and so does New York

    Understand I am just using it as example of 1 of 100s of trades suggested by the research, our knowledge of team need, and likely cap considerations.

    Mostly, I hope you will all read the three articles. The more we know, the more we think about the draft, the richer the discourse here becomes.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Taking back a big or bigger contract solves nothing regarding the cap hell situation they are in now. Trade Lucic and retain $1.5m of his contract, and you then have room to pick up a serviceable winger in the $4m range to play with Drai.

    This is my line of thinking as well. I’m not in to taking back an equally bad contract to get rid of Lucic and I’m definitely not in to giving up a material asset as a sweeter for someone to take him.

    I do think he was some value at $4.5M. I am generally against spending material cap on a top 6 winger, however, that would change if Lucic is off the payroll (except for the retained).

    The one possible benefit of taking back a bad contract is if it doesn’t have a NMC, we won’t have to protect it in the expansion draft like we currently would Lucic.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine: I really have no idea who’s gonna drop this year, but I can see a scenario where teams go for higher upside and none of Wahlstrom, Kotkaniemi or Boqvist make it to us.

    If all three of those players are off the board that means someone like Dobson, Bouchard, Tkachuk or Hughes drops to us.

  54. Alpine says:

    OriginalPouzar: If all three of those players are off the board that means someone like Dobson, Bouchard, Tkachuk or Hughes drops to us.

    It won’t be Hughes. I think Dobson and Bouchard are safe enough picks with minimal risk and teams above us will want D.

    I think the conditions are there for Tkachuk to drop.

    Wahlstrom too because he’s a winger.

    Kotkaniemi i wouldn’t consider a drop because he’s a late riser but someone probably gambles on him.

    Boqvist has concerns about him that might scare off a few teams.

    I presume we will pick one of the latter four players.

  55. YKOil says:

    VOR:
    https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/06/01/blue-bullet-draft-pick-value-chart/

    And this is Blue Bullet Report’s attempt to correct the problems with Schuckers 2011 paper. It adds expected points into the calculation.

    So now you have two legs of the stool of draft value (longevity and impact).
    Next you need the likely cost of games played – the cap value of the player if you like.

    Not sure I would go with cost of games played given that is highly standardized within the opening framework of the players contract (the first three years), somewhat variable in context of the first part (college, European and slide year effects), and then highly variable outside it (bridge versus long-term, etc). I get what you are looking at, just not sure it is the next best leg to adjust for.

    I have always thought that there are two meta-issues that affect these kinds of valuation charts and would act as a sort of ‘after-the-fact’ multiplier:

    1. the value of a draft pick – teams with few draft picks and/or few prospects could very well place a higher underlying value on having more draft picks

    2. the relative value of draft picks year-to-year – some draft years are more valuable than others (2003 vs. 2012 for example), no one was going to give Edmonton fair ‘chart’ value for the first pick in 2012, regardless of whether Katz made the pick himself or not

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine: It won’t be Hughes. I think Dobson and Bouchard are safe enough picks with minimal risk and teams above us will want D.

    I think the conditions are there for Tkachuk to drop.

    Wahlstrom too because he’s a winger.

    Kotkaniemi i wouldn’t consider a drop because he’s a late riser but someone probably gambles on him.

    Boqvist has concerns about him that might scare off a few teams.

    I presume we will pick one of the latter four players.

    You are definitely right, in my opinion, Hughes is the longest shot to drop, however, who the heck knows.

    The “general consensus” to drop is Boquist and he’s ranked as high as 4th on more than a few lists.

  57. Alpine says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yeah really everything I think and assume about the draft is just guesswork. I’ve rarely seen Hughes or Bouchard slip far in any mocks or rankings. Dobson has the Mem Cup thing to push him up a bit. My dark horse to crack the top 10 (CHI or NYR) is Bode Wilde. Some lists like him a lot.

  58. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    If one of Dobson, Hughes, Whalstrom or especially Tkachuk were to fall to us in the draft, to say I’d be ecstatic would be an understatement.

  59. VOR says:

    YKOil: Not sure I would go with cost of games played given that is highly standardized within the opening framework of the players contract (the first three years), somewhat variable in context of the first part (college, European and slide year effects), and then highly variable outside it (bridge versus long-term, etc).I get what you are looking at, just not sure it is the next best leg to adjust for.

    I have always thought that there are two meta-issues that affect these kinds of valuation charts and would act as a sort of ‘after-the-fact’ multiplier:

    1. the value of a draft pick – teams with few draft picks and/or few prospects could very well place a higher underlying value on having more draft picks

    2. the relative value of draft picks year-to-year – some draft years are more valuable than others (2003 vs. 2012 for example), no one was going to give Edmonton fair ‘chart’ value for the first pick in 2012, regardless of whether Katz made the pick himself or not

    I am looking at Michael’s methodology and crossing it with Matt Kane’s to produce a career point value prediction.

    As for your first point I think ultimately a thorough draft value chart would adjust for these factors each year and team by team. So there would be an Oilers draft value chart for 2018, a Calgary Flames draft value for 2018 and so on. And the for 2019 etc.

    Each year the tables would reflect thinking about depth and the degree of consensus. Though as I have said repeatedly it is very hard to forecast draft classes before they happen.

    All that said, these tables will always be averages but even now they are useful in helping determine fair value in draft related trades.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    Alpine,

    Famous name. Brother in the league
    Very highly doubt Tkachuk drops. That is not how NHL GMs work

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    Brantford Boy: This is much closer to what I would say my quick research showed… another example was trading our 10th for Philly’s two first rounders (14 & 19, off the top of my head), and we would still need to sweeten the deal as those 2 picks had more “value points” than our 1 pick alone… the debate at the time was would the 3rd round pick be enough or not, or would it take the 2nd rounder… I think the consensus was no way for the 2nd, maybe do it for the 3rd…

    As for the 200 NHL game comment I’m not sure this had anything to do with those “point values” for draft prospects… I wish I had kept the table…

    What do the point value tables say about the #1 OA? What is that worth?

  62. Brantford Boy says:

    VOR: Mostly, I hope you will all read the three articles. The more we know, the more we think about the draft, the richer the discourse here becomes.

    I obviously did not read the report in its entirety… I did search for ‘200 games’ played and unfortunately when I found it I made the assumption it represented the argument Leadfarmer was making… nonetheless, its all very interesting, but way beyond my love of the game. I spent about 20 minutes determining Noah Dobson was the best player we could draft given our draft position and positional need for the organization in April. Sadly, I will always be that way, as x+y=z has no meaning to me anymore (especially after 2 tequila sunrises in the sun this afternoon), but I truly appreciate your, and everyone else’s input, but the math, oh boy…

  63. Brantford Boy says:

    ArmchairGM,

    1 million dollars… I’m out, I have nothing left for this conversation… I thought I understood the points/tables someone posted a couple months back, apparently I was way over my head, oh look squirrel…

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    And here is a paper for people who really want to think about the draft in depth – from a brilliant young Wharton scholar

    https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1029&context=joseph_wharton_scholars

    Thanks for that Vor, I didn’t know she wrote that.

    Namita is great follow on twitter (@nnstats)

    She’s razor sharp and hilarious. She used to write for Hockey Graphs so that’s where I was first exposed to her and her ideas.

    She joined the Philadelphia Eagles org in their analytics department and now has a Super Bowl ring, but hockey is still a passion.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: This paper has a detailed analysis of draft distributions including how many players exceed 200 games by round.

    The same analytical approach is used to look at games played.

    Otherwise the table has nothing to do with 200 games played thresholds. The table is based on typical career games played by draft selection number.

    Yes but once again games played is a horrible standard to use. Games played as #1 D should never equal games played as 4th line player.
    Games played favors crappy teams. By that metric Lander is a successful draft pick. Should Anton Lander ever be deemed a successful draft pick. Heck no!! No pick drafted in top 100 should have 200 games as a marker of success.

  66. blainer says:

    leadfarmer:
    Alpine,

    Famous name.Brother in the league
    Very highly doubt Tkachuk drops. That is not how NHL GMs work

    You have a point on the bloodlines but Vilardi was number 5 on Bobby Mac’s final ranking last year and dropped to 11.

    I think after Rasmus and Svech I would not be surprised if one of the top eligible players falls to us.

    I also doubt Tkachuk falls that far but someone is going off the board in the top ten.. I hope it isn’t the oil. I do think we have the right guy heading up the draft for a change so I am very optimistic..

    I will be disappointed if they take Smith over Boqvist though.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Lucic asking for a trade.

    I did Lucic’s splits from 17/18 the other day: http://lowetide.ca/2018/05/31/a-time-to-reap-a-time-to-sow/#comment-743661

    I came away thinking this:

    “Lucic 5v5 scoring splits:

    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 2.02/60

    Jan1 – Apr 15: 0.63/60

    That’s such a giant disparity for someone who didn’t miss any time with injury that it begs to be explained any other way than “fell off the cliff””

    Maybe we have our explanation now?

    There are various rumours why he asked for a trade, none which I’ll repeat here, but the data makes a whole lot more sense if the trade request rumour is true.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Further down the thread I examine his Primary Points/60 splits from the last two years:

    http://lowetide.ca/2018/05/31/a-time-to-reap-a-time-to-sow/#comment-743673


    Last two years in EDM with and without 97:
    16/17
    With 97: 1.19
    Without 97: 0.87

    17/18
    With 97: 0.72
    Without 97: 0.78

    16/17 Season splits
    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 0.99
    Jan1 – Apr 15: 1.21

    17/18 Season splits
    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 1.35
    Jan 1 – Apr 15: 0.21

    That’s nuts.

    As you can see, it can’t be explained away by WOWY 97, but had to be something else.

    Interesting.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am highly confident that Lucic was dealing with some personal/family issues last year – I am unsure if they are ongoing.

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Brantford Boy:
    ArmchairGM,

    1 million dollars… I’m out, I have nothing left for this conversation… I thought I understood the points/tables someone posted a couple months back, apparently I was way over my head, oh look squirrel…

    I am actually looking for the answer, not judging you in any way.

  71. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: Yes but once again games played is a horrible standard to use.Games played as #1 D should never equal games played as 4th line player.
    Games played favors crappy teams.By that metric Lander is a successful draft pick.Should Anton Lander ever be deemed a successful draft pick.Heck no!! No pick drafted in top 100 should have 200 games as a marker of success.

    Neither Michael Schuckers or I would disagree with you. In fact Michael says as much in his paper and I have said so here. I posted Blue Bullet Reports table because he has an easy way of combining games played with impact (as determined by points per game) with total games played. Which is closer to measuring true value (albeit an average value) of draft picks.

    Do I think it is perfect? No! YK Oil’s criticism are completely valid, for example. And there are more, like my point about cap value in a capped league.

  72. pts2pndr says:

    VOR: I am looking at Michael’s methodology and crossing it with Matt Kane’s to produce a career point value prediction.

    As for your first point I think ultimately a thorough draft value chart would adjust for these factors each year and team by team. So there would be an Oilers draft value chart for 2018, a Calgary Flames draft value for 2018 and so on. And the for 2019 etc.

    Each year the tables would reflect thinking about depth and the degree of consensus. Though as I have said repeatedly it is very hard to forecast draft classes before they happen.

    All that said, these tables will always be averages but even now they are useful in helping determine fair value in draft related trades.

    Thanks ! I really enjoyed the reads! Much to think about!

  73. Jaxon says:

    Tracking 19 Draft Rankings. 19 players have been in the top 10 on at least one list! Only 5 players have never been ranked outside the top 10 (Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Hughes, Wahlstrom):

    Sorted Hi, AVG, LO:
    Player HI AVG LO
    1 Rasmus Dahlin 1 1 2
    2 Andrei Svechnikov 1 2 3
    3 Filip Zadina 2 3 7
    4 Quinn Hughes 2 6 10
    5 Brady Tkachuk 3 6 13
    6 Oliver Wahlstrom 4 6 10
    7 Adam Boqvist 4 7 12
    8 Evan Bouchard 4 10 23
    9 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 4 11 19
    10 Noah Dobson 5 10 20
    11 Joel Farabee 5 13 27
    12 Ty Smith 5 14 24
    13 Joe Veleno 6 13 28
    14 Vitali Kravtsov 6 19 36
    15 Dominik Bokk 6 23 44
    16 Barrett Hayton 7 15 26
    17 Isac Lundestrom 7 20 31
    18 Ty Dellandrea 8 30 47
    19 Ryan Merkley 10 23 47
    20 Rasmus Kupari 11 18 27
    21 Bode Wilde 12 19 39
    22 Grigori Denisenko 12 22 42
    23 Ryan McLeod 13 24 37
    24 Rasmus Sandin 13 26 39
    25 Martin Kaut 13 27 49
    26 Serron Noel 14 26 40
    27 K’Andre Miller 14 29 57
    28 Jacob Olofsson 14 30 46
    29 Jesse Ylonen 14 43 84
    30 Akil Thomas 15 23 32
    31 Nils Lundkvist 16 41 87

    This order would represent gambles at their highest pick. Hi Risk.

  74. Jaxon says:

    Sorted AVG-HI-LO:

    Player HI AVG LO
    1 Rasmus Dahlin 1 1 2
    2 Andrei Svechnikov 1 2 3
    3 Filip Zadina 2 3 7
    4 Brady Tkachuk 3 6 13
    5 Quinn Hughes 2 6 10
    6 Oliver Wahlstrom 4 6 10
    7 Adam Boqvist 4 7 12
    8 Evan Bouchard 4 10 23
    9 Noah Dobson 5 10 20
    10 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 4 11 19
    11 Joe Veleno 6 13 28
    12 Joel Farabee 5 13 27
    13 Ty Smith 5 14 24
    14 Barrett Hayton 7 15 26
    15 Rasmus Kupari 11 18 27
    16 Bode Wilde 12 19 39
    17 Vitali Kravtsov 6 19 36
    18 Isac Lundestrom 7 20 31
    19 Grigori Denisenko 12 22 42
    20 Ryan Merkley 10 23 47
    21 Dominik Bokk 6 23 44
    22 Akil Thomas 15 23 32
    23 Ryan McLeod 13 24 37
    24 Rasmus Sandin 13 26 39
    25 Serron Noel 14 26 40
    26 Martin Kaut 13 27 49
    27 Jonatan Berggren 20 28 46
    28 K’Andre Miller 14 29 57
    29 Jacob Olofsson 14 30 46
    30 Ty Dellandrea 8 30 47
    31 Calen Addison 18 32 58

  75. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks for that Vor, I didn’t know she wrote that.

    Namita is great follow on twitter (@nnstats)

    She’s razor sharp and hilarious.She used to write for Hockey Graphs so that’s where I was first exposed to her and her ideas.

    She joined the Philadelphia Eagles org in their analytics department and now has a Super Bowl ring, but hockey is still a passion.

    Namita is unquestionably one of the best young mind’s in analytics.

  76. Jaxon says:

    Sorted Lo-AVG-Hi

    Player HI AVG LO
    1 Rasmus Dahlin 1 1 2
    2 Andrei Svechnikov 1 2 3
    3 Filip Zadina 2 3 7
    4 Quinn Hughes 2 6 10
    5 Oliver Wahlstrom 4 6 10
    6 Adam Boqvist 4 7 12
    7 Brady Tkachuk 3 6 13
    8 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 4 11 19
    9 Noah Dobson 5 10 20
    10 Evan Bouchard 4 10 23
    11 Ty Smith 5 14 24
    12 Barrett Hayton 7 15 26
    13 Joel Farabee 5 13 27
    14 Rasmus Kupari 11 18 27
    15 Joe Veleno 6 13 28
    16 Isac Lundestrom 7 20 31
    17 Akil Thomas 15 23 32
    18 Vitali Kravtsov 6 19 36
    19 Ryan McLeod 13 24 37
    20 Bode Wilde 12 19 39
    21 Rasmus Sandin 13 26 39
    22 Serron Noel 14 26 40
    23 Grigori Denisenko 12 22 42
    24 Dominik Bokk 6 23 44
    25 Filip Hallander 19 33 45
    26 Jonatan Berggren 20 28 46
    27 Jacob Olofsson 14 30 46
    28 Ryan Merkley 10 23 47
    29 Ty Dellandrea 8 30 47
    30 Ivan Muranov 48 48 48
    31 Martin Kaut 13 27 49

    I think this order should represent the safest placement for each pick. Low risk.

  77. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Re: Lucic asking for a trade.

    I did Lucic’s splits from 17/18 the other day: http://lowetide.ca/2018/05/31/a-time-to-reap-a-time-to-sow/#comment-743661

    I came away thinking this:

    “Lucic 5v5 scoring splits:


    Oct 1-Dec 31st: 2.02/60

    Jan1 – Apr 15: 0.63/60

    That’s such a giant disparity for someone who didn’t miss any time with injury that it begs to be explained any other way than “fell off the cliff””

    Maybe we have our explanation now?

    There are various rumours why he asked for a trade, none which I’ll repeat here, but the data makes a whole lot more sense if the trade request rumour is true.

    I was really trying to sort out Milan’s perspective a few days ago. I don’t have a source of rumours except what I get on the old lowetide. Really, it’s not the details I’m chasing; it was is this a personal issue or an organization issue that will remain a problem after Milan moves on?

    Leaning towards a personal issue that affected Milan???

  78. luc27 says:

    Hey LT do you think the oilers are leaning towards Ty Smith?

  79. Harpers Hair says:

    digger50: I was really trying to sort out Milan’s perspective a few days ago. I don’t have a source of rumours except what I get on the old lowetide. Really, it’s not the details I’m chasing; it was is this a personal issue or an organizationissue that will remain a problem after Milan moves on?

    Leaning towards a personal issue that affected Milan???

    Based on the verbal we’ve seen, he’s not happy living in Edmonton.

  80. Jaxon says:

    Sorting the draft tables from 19 rankings considering hi-avg-lo really sets up some logical tiers:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Zadina
    4. Hughes 5. Wahlstrom 6. Tkachuk
    7. Boqvist
    8. Bouchard 9. Dobson 10. Kotkaniemi
    11. Veleno 12. Farabee 13. Smith 14. Hayton
    15. Kupari
    16. Lundestrom 17. Kravtsov
    18. Bokk 19. Merkley 20. Dellandrea
    21. Wilde 22. Denisenko
    23. Thomas
    24. McLeod 25. Sandin 26. Noel
    27. Kaut 28. Olofsson
    29. Miller
    30. Berggren
    31. Addison

    I think most Oiler fans would be happy with one of Bouchard, Dobson or Kotkaniemi if they are truly in their own tier at 8,9 & 10.

  81. Jaxon says:

    Link to 19 Draft Rankings, 13 Mocks and 4 Consensus Lists/Mocks

    Also new tab which shows Hi-Avg-Lo for each player.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRJiAg105InJRP_1TzoyxuzTdd78oVlWAJDJaadJIbg/edit?usp=sharing

    There are still 5 rankings that are a bit dated and we should be expecting updates soon:
    “Jermey Davis Canucks Army May 4th”
    “Sam Cosentino SportsNet Apr. 28th”
    “Cam Robinson Dobber Prospects Apr. 26th”
    “Jeff Marek SportsNet Mar. 7th”
    “Peter Harling Dobber Prospects Mar. 3rd”

    After that, I think it will be a fairly comprehensive and complete of accessible rankings.

  82. Lowetide says:

    luc27:
    Hey LT do you think the oilers are leaning towards Ty Smith?

    No idea how the Oilers see Smith. I have him No. 5 overall.

    http://lowetide.ca/2018/06/01/here-comes-the-sun-2018-final-edition/

  83. texmex says:

    Lowetide,

    Teeet from Stauffer.

    He may be ranked 10th thru 20th by most scouting services but to me Ty Smith makes a lot of sense to EDM at #10.
    Mature, intelligent young man, very good skater with hockey sense.
    Strong leadership skills, respected by teammates.
    Had 14-59-73, +44 with Spokane this season.

  84. Lowetide says:

    texmex:
    Lowetide,

    Teeet from Stauffer.

    He may be ranked 10th thru 20th by most scouting services but to me Ty Smith makes a lot of sense to EDM at #10.
    Mature, intelligent young man, very good skater with hockey sense.
    Strong leadership skills, respected by teammates.
    Had 14-59-73, +44 with Spokane this season.

    Interesting. Bob would certainly have a better idea about the Oilers plans than I would. Still it’s tough to know what will be available at No. 10.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    luc27:
    Hey LT do you think the oilers are leaning towards Ty Smith?

    Stauffer sure is making it look that way:

    Bob Stauffer

    Verified account

    @Bob_Stauffer
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    He may be ranked 10th thru 20th by most scouting services but to me Ty Smith makes a lot of sense to EDM at #10.
    Mature, intelligent young man, very good skater with hockey sense.
    Strong leadership skills, respected by teammates.
    Had 14-59-73, +44 with Spokane this season.
    6 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
    Reply 6 Retweet 1 Like 12 Direct message

  86. digger50 says:

    texmex:
    Lowetide,

    Teeet from Stauffer.

    He may be ranked 10th thru 20th by most scouting services but to me Ty Smith makes a lot of sense to EDM at #10.
    Mature, intelligent young man, very good skater with hockey sense.
    Strong leadership skills, respected by teammates.
    Had 14-59-73, +44 with Spokane this season.

    Sounds like the pick will be between whoever falls out of the top seeds – and Ty Smith. So att has everyone e beat behind him. Good choice.

    I know the Oil kind of telegraphed this, yet I just today chose Boqvist at 10 in my Kinger prediction. I thought they still might go with a righty. On the other hand… they probably followed Smith closely and there is still uncertainty in the Oil of how much they trust oversea players and leagues.

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: No idea how the Oilers see Smith. I have him No. 5 overall.

    http://lowetide.ca/2018/06/01/here-comes-the-sun-2018-final-edition/

    There’s smoke that they like Smith. (Bob/Dinner/twitter)

    Interestingly, Friedman also has EDM as a “trade down” target.

    I bet they could trade trade down and still get Smith

  88. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Smith’s an interesting talent, I just do wonder if he’s a dynamic enough talent to take top 10. If it was up to him and Boqvist, I could see the argument. If it was him and Kotkaniemi or Wahlstrom I don’t know that I would love that decision.

  89. slopitch says:

    I’d be fine trading down to 15 and getting Smith. At 10 I think there may be a better option. Hard to say though. Ideally you try to get value but if you think he’s the best guy just take him.

    The target would be someone around 16 who needs a C imo.

  90. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Could they move down to 15, and use the picks they recoup with that + 40 to move up and take Merkley?

    He just seems like such a wildcard, supremely skilled

  91. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Could they move down to 15, and use the picks they recoup with that + 40 to move up and take Merkley?

    He just seems like such a wildcard, supremely skilled

    I don’t have a feeling on Edmonton and Smith, but based on years of watching this organization draft, my guess is Merkley won’t be coming here.

  92. GMB3 says:

    If they could trade down and use the picks they recieve to procure another first, I wouldn’t mind taking Bokk and Bode Wilde or K’Andre Miller

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: There’s smoke that they like Smith. (Bob/Dinner/twitter)

    Interestingly, Friedman also has EDM as a “trade down” target.

    I bet they could trade trade down and still get Smith

    Now that would be a fine outcome – much better than reaching at 10, even if the reach is 4-5 spots.

    I would think the add could be as simple as the 3rd rounder (to move down 2-5 spots).

  94. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Sorted Lo-AVG-Hi

    PlayerHIAVGLO
    1Rasmus Dahlin112
    2Andrei Svechnikov123
    3Filip Zadina237
    4Quinn Hughes2610
    5Oliver Wahlstrom4610
    6Adam Boqvist4712
    7Brady Tkachuk3613
    8Jesperi Kotkaniemi41119
    9Noah Dobson51020
    10Evan Bouchard41023
    11Ty Smith51424
    12Barrett Hayton71526
    13Joel Farabee51327
    14Rasmus Kupari111827
    15Joe Veleno61328
    16Isac Lundestrom72031
    17Akil Thomas152332
    18Vitali Kravtsov61936
    19Ryan McLeod132437
    20Bode Wilde121939
    21Rasmus Sandin132639
    22Serron Noel142640
    23Grigori Denisenko122242
    24Dominik Bokk62344
    25Filip Hallander193345
    26Jonatan Berggren202846
    27Jacob Olofsson143046
    28Ryan Merkley102347
    29Ty Dellandrea83047
    30Ivan Muranov484848
    31Martin Kaut132749

    I think this order should represent the safest placement for each pick. Low risk.

    So someone in the Dobson – Kotkaniemi – Bouchard range will be available at #10. Over the moon!

  95. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: So someone in the Dobson – Kotkaniemi – Bouchard range will be available at #10. Over the moon!

    Boqvist may fall due to concussions issues

    “He hit some lows, suffering a pair of concussions and receiving limited playing time in both the SHL and Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second league, but forged ahead.”

    http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/boqvist-2018-nhl-draft-dahlin-karlsson-dyslexia-jesper

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Now that would be a fine outcome – much better than reaching at 10, even if the reach is 4-5 spots.

    I would think the add could be as simple as the 3rd rounder (to move down 2-5 spots).

    Smith could be picked at 11 though. Is the difference between Bouchard and Kupari worth a 3rd round pick? Not to my mind. The return would have to be much greater.

    Look at the Skinner pick from 2017: Edmonton moved up 4 spots in the third round and it cost them a 5th round pick. Moving up 4 spots in the first round is going to cost a LOT more than a 3rd – otherwise Chairelli is losing the trade again.

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: Boqvist may fall due to concussions issues

    “He hit some lows, suffering a pair of concussions and receiving limited playing time in both the SHL and Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second league, but forged ahead.”

    http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/boqvist-2018-nhl-draft-dahlin-karlsson-dyslexia-jesper

    Even better! He’ll likely take longer to arrive (he’s nearly a full year younger than Bouchard), but if you’re drafting for short-term need, you’re doing it wrong, IMO. That young man has incredible upside.

  98. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: Even better! He’ll likely take longer to arrive (he’s nearly a full year younger than Bouchard), but if you’re drafting for short-term need, you’re doing it wrong, IMO. That young man has incredible upside.

    Two concussions in one year is a worry. I like Boqvist a lot, but concussions can derail a career.

  99. leadfarmer says:

    I do get a kick out of Dellow’s analysis of trading down and how MacT thought he was so smart when he traded down twice in a draft a few years ago and in the process he lost 30-40% of the value in each trade.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Boqvist may fall due to concussions issues

    “He hit some lows, suffering a pair of concussions and receiving limited playing time in both the SHL and Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second league, but forged ahead.”

    http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/boqvist-2018-nhl-draft-dahlin-karlsson-dyslexia-jesper

    I knew he suffered a concussion but didn’t realize there were multiple concussions and he was/is having lasting effects. This is a red flag to me a bit.

  101. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide: Boqvist may fall due to concussions issues

    “He hit some lows, suffering a pair of concussions and receiving limited playing time in both the SHL and Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second league, but forged ahead.”

    http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/boqvist-2018-nhl-draft-dahlin-karlsson-dyslexia-jesper

    Yes, and I think the 5 rankings that haven’t been updated yet are affecting things. Boqvist is 5th in 4 of those 5, so he’ll most likely drop a bit once updated. I think Kravtsov, Kotkaniemi and Veleno will all move up a bit once the final scouting lists come in. I think Quinn may move up and Dobson may move down a bit.

  102. Rondo says:

    Lowetide: Interesting. Bob would certainly have a better idea about the Oilers plans than I would. Still it’s tough to know what will be available at No. 10.

    I only saw Ty Smith in the Top Prospects game and the U 18’s he looked horrible. I know small sample size but he competed against the best in his age group and looked bad for a top 15 pick.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ya, Smith had not performed well in the tournaments of small sample sizes – they are small sample sizes but the scouts do indeed put quite a bit of stock in to them, I believe.

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