These are the days of miracle and wonder

On the day the Edmonton Oilers signed Milan Lucic, it wasn’t at all clear the move improved the team. In a post called Silent Sorrow in Empty Boats, I wrote:

  • The Edmonton Oilers are a far different team than they were a year ago, but are they better? The team has more balance—and that is a good thing—but suggesting this team is closer to the playoffs is a tricky case to make. I like Milan Lucic and Adam Larsson, but the Oilers lost Taylor Hall and $4 million in cap room to make this happen. What’s more, the team now has (just) one forward who can push the river, and a plethora of well paid complementary (but effective) offensive wingers and pivots. Put another way, the thing that always made the Chicago Blackhawks special—Patrick Kane on one line and Marian Hossa on another—no longer applies (to the Oilers). It is a real concern.

Two years later, we are here. One thing that may be happening—and it benefits the Oilers—is a ‘fame aided’ exit by Lucic that may not require a nuclear sweetener. Music! And probably impossible.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift for Father’s Day and get a free t-shirt! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: In search of the new Pisani (will link)
  • New Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

TODAY’S LUCIC UPDATE

Elliotte Friedman talked about Lucic and his situation on a Vancouver radio station yesterday. There’s an account of his interview here, and more teams to talk about (Vancouver, Dallas, Florida) based on the Friedman blue sky. What’s coming back? In yesterday’s comments section I was asked about acceptable deals, so have cobbled together a few ideas. My opinion only, I don’t expect any of these to get done as written.

  • Dallas Stars: Jason Spezza ($7.5M times one) for Milan Lucic ($6M times five) with $2M a year retained. Another contract that can’t be bought out, but it is for only one year. I’m not a fan of retaining money, but this gives Edmonton four summers of $4 million in extra cap. while adding $3.5M to the cap for the coming  season. Blech.
  • Florida Panthers: Jamie McGinn ($3.33M) for Milan Lucic ($6 million times five) and maybe the Oilers retain $2 million a year for the remainder of the contract.
  • Los Angeles Kings: Dion Phaneuf ($5.25M times three) and No. 20 for Milan Lucic ($6M times five) and No. 12. Phaneuf’s deal is also impossible to buy out but the contract has just three years remaining.
  • NY Rangers: Marc Staal ($5.7M times three) for Milan Lucic ($6 million times five) gives the Oilers freedom two years early. Staal is a limited player for this era.
  • Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson ($6M times four) for Milan Lucic ($6 million times five) gives the Oilers a player with more utility (he can play in all three disciplines) and offensive ability (despite last year’s poor totals). He is older, Edmonton gets out from under a year earlier.

I’m not thrilled with any of these, but would find the Florida and Vancouver deals acceptable. If Peter Chiarelli can do better, using the Lucic Fame Modulator, credit will be due. I still think it’s Everest to make a trade that doesn’t cost an extra asset.

CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST

  • A scoring winger capable of sliding up and down the depth chart as required (Rattie insurance and a finisher for Leon’s line).
  • A two-way winger who can provide veteran presence on the third line.
  • A second-pairing defender (patience may require this solution arrives later).
  • A backup goalie (Mikko Noskinen).

OILERS ASSETS LIST

  1. Milan Lucic.  Moves up to No. 1 from ninth in a quick hurry.
  2. Zack Kassian. He’s likely in a few conversations.
  3. Oscar Klefbom. The OEL signing has him moving down my list (from No. 1).
  4. No. 10 overall. There will be a good player there, EDM is still building.
  5. Jesse Puljujarvi. He’s vulnerable, suspect they’ll regret dealing the big man.
  6. Ryan Strome. Oilers may want to reset that third line.
  7. Andrej Sekera. Injury unknown likely keeps him here.
  8. Kris Russell. NMC probably keeps him here.

The Kris Russell buyout is the most palatable (here, via CapFriendly) but it is doubtful Edmonton uses the option this summer. It will be interesting to see who gets bought out, hopefully it will increase the free-agent pool greatly.

FREE AGENCY

If the Oilers can deal Lucic without taking back a big salary, what might they pursue in free agency? I’ve always thought James Neal was the target, maybe JvR? I keep looking for any signing news on Alexander Barabanov, who was mentioned by Elliotte Friedman in late May. He’s 23, is a good skater with a quick release and was strong at the World Hockey Championships.

We’re into the good stuff now, McKenzie has his list out Monday and Pronman will have his mock sometime next week. I’ll have a lot of draft coverage on the Lowdown next week, The Athletic this and next week and the usual rambling here.

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188 Responses to "These are the days of miracle and wonder"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    A “nuclear sweetener” is not something that, in my opinion, should be contemplated by management.

    Not material asset should be added to Lucic to dispose of him. No bad contract should be taken back.

    I would much prefer a limited retention (up to $1.5M) in order to dispose of the contract – does the player not hold some value at $4.5M?

    Not to mention the actual dollars earned by Lucic after July 1 (and the $3.5M bonus being paid) is materially less than the $6M yearly cap hit – a structure that could look attractive to a cap floor/internal budget team.

    One likely important matter is the continuation of his NMC. When we waives for a trade, the acquiring team has the option to allow the trade protection clause to continue or for it to fall away. Of course an acquiring team would always choose for it to fall away, however, Lucic could very well require its continuation as a condition to his initial waiver. That could be a big issue as it would require the acquiring team to protect Lucic in the expansion draft (subject to a subsequent waiver).

  2. Woogie63 says:

    This is huge over reaction even for Edmonton. He had a brutal January to March.

    Is Lucic going to join a long line of very good hockey players pushed (run) out of town by a few MSM guys that know the buttons to push.

    Remember these conversations when we wonder why the only UFA we can get are, local boys getting closer to home or declining players we over pay for.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Every single one of those deals has a bad contract coming back and/or retention by the Oilers and some have both.

    My goodness, both cap retention and a bad contract (although less term)? No, no, no (in my opinion of course).

    Keep the player if those are the options.

  4. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    A “nuclear sweetener” is not something that, in my opinion, should be contemplated by management.

    Not material asset should be added to Lucic to dispose of him.No bad contract should be taken back.

    I would much prefer a limited retention (up to $1.5M) in order to dispose of the contract – does the player not hold some value at $4.5M?

    Not to mention the actual dollars earned by Lucic after July 1 (and the $3.5M bonus being paid) is materially less than the $6M yearly cap hit – a structure that could look attractive to a cap floor/internal budget team.

    One likely important matter is the continuation of his NMC. When we waives for a trade, the acquiring team has the option to allow the trade protection clause to continue or for it to fall away.Of course an acquiring team would always choose for it to fall away, however, Lucic could very well require its continuation as a condition to his initial waiver. That could be a big issue as it would require the acquiring team to protect Lucic in the expansion draft (subject to a subsequent waiver).

    He played poorly to the point where some think it’s a permanent decline, it’s a tough contract and pretty much buyout proof.

    I’d say the only way we do a Lucic deal without a sweetener is at the deadline next year after he shows improvement.

    Right now the sweetener could be $1.5-2M retained and Benning’s RFA rights. That could be a feasible deal for an average player coming back.

    Also, are we sure Vancouver is an option? Looch has said in the past that he’s not keen on playing there.

    I say this every year: Player value is what other NHL GMs will give up for them, not what the fans think. Looch’s value is rock bottom, name player aside.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    If the Oilers open up, say, $4.5M in a Lucic trade, I would still not play in the “big fish” free agent market for forwards (i.e. JVR, James Neal, etc.).

    I would be more apt to try and acquire a player like Vladislav Namestnikov or sign a smaller fish like Maroon and possibly in conjunction with an acquisition of someone like Ryan Pulock.

    If we could get one of Vladislav Namestnikov and Maroon and Pulock maybe a Kris Russell buyout does make sense?

    The window is open until just before free agency.

  6. texmex says:

    Woogie63,

    This is not an over reaction by the OIlers, rather a case of a player wanting out for family reasons IMO. The Oilers hands are tied

    As Friedman speculates:

    “I think he wants to get out of Canada. I don’t think he wants to play here anymore. I think that’s another situation where the wife has seen how much heat the player has taken, I think, and isn’t always comfortable with that. I think he wants to get out of Canada”

    I’ve always wonder why ANY UFA would sign in Canada? They can’t go anywhere without being noticed.

  7. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That $3,611,111 cap hit in year 3 precludes a Russell buyout.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    This is huge over reaction even for Edmonton.He had a brutal January to March.

    Is Lucic going to join a long line of very good hockey players pushed (run) out of town by a few MSM guys that know the buttons to push.

    Remember these conversations when we wonder why the only UFA we can get are, local boys getting closer to home or declining players we over pay for.

    Meh. I like Lucic, always have. This is about the contract.

  9. Jaxon says:

    What about to LVK for Clarkson’s contract 2 yrs @$5.25M, or to ARI for Bolland’s contract 1yr @$5.5M. What would Edmonton have to add to Lucic to make that happen?

    I was also thinking about to COL for Eric Johnson (5yrs @ $6.0M), but he also has a NMC (with a 19 team Mod NTC) so he’d have to be traded again or protected prior to the (possible) 2020 expansion draft so I think that’s a no-go unless he dropped his NMC.

  10. Melvis says:

    I’m just curious. Is Lucic’s contract actually buyout proof? This might not be an ideal solution, but Craig Button strongly suggested yesterday it’s an option.

  11. russ99 says:

    Melvis:
    I’m just curious. Is Lucic’s contract actually buyout proof?This might not be an ideal solution, but Craig Button strongly suggested yesterday it’s an option.

    It’s pretty bad. Not sure any NHL GM can stomach this:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/milan-lucic#results

    Pretty much the same to buyout the player as to keep the player.

    The only way it’s workable is the two team retained idea, like we trade him to Arizona with $1.5M retained, and then Arizona trades him somewhere else with $1.25 retained.

    But then you’d have Looch at a reasonable salary, so why buy out?

  12. AshetonisGod says:

    Lowetide, I ag

    I agree that dumping the contract with minimal take back is a net gain. To this I would add Branch Rickey’s comment that it’s better to trade a player a year too soon than a year too late.

  13. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woogie63:
    This is huge over reaction even for Edmonton.He had a brutal January to March.

    Is Lucic going to join a long line of very good hockey players pushed (run) out of town by a few MSM guys that know the buttons to push.

    Remember these conversations when we wonder why the only UFA we can get are, local boys getting closer to home or declining players we over pay for.

    I don’t get why it’s a few MSM guys pushing him out. It’s the entire fanbase, just like it was with Eberle and Schultz. Maybe the MSM had some mythical power to do this 20 years ago, but that certainly isn’t the case now with social media. Edmonton has exceptionally active blogging community. They get a free pass on this kinda stuff? Seems to me like everyone but me is yipping away on Twitter.

  14. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    If the Oilers open up, say, $4.5M in a Lucic trade, I would still not play in the “big fish” free agent market for forwards (i.e. JVR, James Neal, etc.).

    I would be more apt to try and acquire a player like Vladislav Namestnikov or sign a smaller fish like Maroon and possibly in conjunction with an acquisition of someone like Ryan Pulock.

    If we could get one of Vladislav Namestnikov and Maroon and Pulock maybe a Kris Russell buyout does make sense?

    The window is open until just before free agency.

    Wouldn’t that be so Oilers. Get rid of a bad contract and immediately go out and sign another’ one.

  15. AshetonisGod says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Schultz and Eberle had a lot more upside. Younger guys, less wear and tear. What’s Lucic’s upside? Regression to a declining mean? 80 GP 9 goals 18 assists? On a third line with little special teams contributions?

  16. Rake 2.0 says:

    russ99:
    OriginalPouzar,

    That $3,611,111 cap hit in year 3 precludes a Russell buyout.

    Unfortunately that will probably be a lockout year.

  17. Alpine says:

    Woogie63:
    This is huge over reaction even for Edmonton.He had a brutal January to March.

    Is Lucic going to join a long line of very good hockey players pushed (run) out of town by a few MSM guys that know the buttons to push.

    Remember these conversations when we wonder why the only UFA we can get are, local boys getting closer to home or declining players we over pay for.

    I don’t think Lucic qualifies for “very good” anymore. If his scoring rebounds, he’s “decent”. He’s been a disappointment offensively at even strength (which was his main angle his whole career) and doesn’t offer anything on the defensive side other than a good but inconsistent physical game.

  18. Melvis says:

    russ99,

    Thanks. Good points – but I was also thinking along both on ice problems as well as some possible team related off ice liability issues. An attitude problem in terrms of the room or the town he’s playing in, e.g..

    I’ve always liked the guy, but the latter half of last season had me cracking a second bottle of Pinot through all that bobbling. It’s costly, but I managed to suck it up;-)

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    AshetonisGod:
    JimmyV1965,

    Schultz and Eberle had a lot more upside. Younger guys, less wear and tear. What’s Lucic’s upside? Regression to adeclining mean? 80 GP 9 goals 18 assists? On a third line with little special teams contributions?

    I didn’t actually comment on the skill level or future of any of these players.

  20. Jaxon says:

    russ99: he only way it’s workable is the two team retained idea, like we trade him to Arizona with $1.5M retained, and then Arizona trades him somewhere else with $1.25 retained.

    I like that line of thinking. Now would you take on a bad contract for 1 or 2 years to make ti happen? Bolland in ARI? or Clarkson in LVK? Then they trade him to VAN, retaining to get him down to the $3.5M to $4.5M range. Now, if they’re able to get an asset for him, then maybe Edmonton needs to get something back besides a bad contract on LTIR. I dunno, just spitballing here.

  21. Jaxon says:

    Underraated draft pick. K’Andre Miller. 6’5″ 207lbs,

    Pronman: “He’s a great athlete, […] and is one of the better skating defensemen in the entire draft. Miller is also a high-character workhorse who flies up and down the ice. He’s incredibly tough on his checks in battles, and with his great closing speed, he gets in guys faces quickly. With his speed, he’s able to jump up into the attack. Despite being a converted forward”

    USNTDP U18 coach Seth Appert said: “He has the skating ability, the length and the competitiveness to be a shut-down, mobile, hard defender, but then he has the explosiveness to add offense, as well.”

    Projected 5-on-5 Primary Points by D (adjusted for age and league and TOI):
    YEAR Name “AGE & ADJ NHLE 5-on-5 P1 @TOP4TOI” Pos
    2018 – RASMUS DAHLIN – 32.04 – LD
    2018 K’ANDRE MILLER 31.70 LD****************** Wow!
    2018 – QUINN HUGHES – 23.60 – LD
    2018 – JACOB RAGNARSSON – 20.20 – LD
    2018 – ADAM BOQVIST – 19.87 – RD
    2013 – DARNELL NURSE – 16.94 . – LD***********
    2018 – RYAN MERKLEY – 16.29 – RD
    2018 – EVAN BOUCHARD – 15.64 – RD
    2018 – TY SMITH – 15.43 – LD
    2018 – TY EMBERSON – 14.48 – RD
    2018 – AXEL ANDERSSON – 14.34 – RD
    2018 MERRICK RIPPON 13.78 LD
    2018 MATTIAS SAMUELSSON 13.58 LD
    2018 – FILIP KRAL – 13.58 – LD
    2018 – RASMUS SANDIN – 13.47 – LD
    2018 – CALEN ADDISON – 12.32 – RD
    2018 – ALEXANDER ALEXEYEV – 11.81 – LD
    2018 – NOAH DOBSON – 11.52 – RD
    2018 NILS LUNDKVIST 11.36 RD
    2018 – XAVIER BERNARD – 10.65 – LD
    2018 – NICOLAS BEAUDIN – 10.05 – LD
    2018 – JETT WOO – 10.02 – RD
    2018 DECLAN CHISHOLM 9.14 LD
    2018 – JARED MCISAAC – 8.48 – LD
    2018 MARTIN FEHERVARY 8.14 LD
    2018 ADAM SAMUELSSON 7.92 LD
    2018 – CARTER ROBERTSON – 7.82 – LD
    2018 – GIOVANNI VALLATI – 7.62 – LD
    2018 ALEC REGULA 7.12 RD
    2018 BODE WILDE 6.43 RD

    Sometimes it baffles me why certain players aren’t ranked higher. Size, speed, compete, physical, offense, defense. I’ve seen him ranked as high as #14, take him at #10! And he’s relatively new convert to D from forward. He could very well turn into the next Burns, Byfuglien, Jones, or Hedman. He wasn’t getting big minutes and was a bit protected, but he absolutely dominated when on the ice. 2.27 5-on-5 Primary Points per 60! That’s an insane number for a D. Equal to Dahlin, double Merkley, Smith and Bouchard, over 50% more than Boqvist, almost 50% more than Hughes, and almost triple Dobson’s rate.

    EDIT ADD:
    Grant McCagg’s Recrutes:
    “He’s a physical specimen,” said one scout who saw him plat at least 15 times. “He’s an NHL athlete. size, excellent skater… he kind of skates like Brady Skjei […]” What was encouraging to scouts,[…], was that he already makes fewer defensive mistakes and turnovers than teammate Bode Wilde, who has played defence his entire career.
    “He plays a smarter game than Wilde,” noted one western conference scout. “He’s almost impossible to beat one-on-one.”

    Miller uses his size, strength and high-end mobility to handle opposing forwards with ease […]

    Most scouts consider him to already be one of the three best one-on-one defenders in the draft, and there is also SOME [emphasis mine] offensive upside given his puck carrying abilities, passing skills and heavy shot.”

    McCagg’s scouts poll had him ranked as the 4th best defensive D after Dahlin, Dobson and Ginning. Pronman had him ranked as the 3rd most physical D.

  22. knighttown says:

    You have to replace Lucic in the lineup. He’s probably a league average middle six winger. I posted some comparables yesterday ranging from Marcus Foligno to Andre Burakovsky; from Zach Hyman to Michael Raffl. These guys are all falling between 2.5M and 3.5M depending on their pedigree and their age.

    So if you replace Lucic with Matt Calvert at 2.9M you’ve saved 3.1M and that’s very valuable.

    But if you start retaining dollars; say 2 million then that savings goes to 1M per year.

    The calculus for me at that point becomes such that I wouldn’t make the trade:
    – Matt Calvert or the next Matt Calvert becomes more expensive as the cap goes up. Quite possibly a middle-6 winger by 2022 is making 4.5M
    – Lucic probably is better than most of the guys I’ve listed if he plays 15 minutes a night on the 3rd line moving up to play with Drai as needed

    Splitting hairs but:
    – if I can get out without retaining I give up an asset like Caleb Jones
    – if I have to retain 1M per year I give him away for free (or for a player worth his middle 6 contract like Matt Calvert
    – if the retention approaches 2M per year I keep him

  23. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t get why it’s a few MSM guys pushing him out. It’s the entire fanbase, just like it was with Eberle and Schultz.Maybe the MSM had some mythical power to do this 20 years ago, but that certainly isn’t the case now with social media. Edmonton has exceptionally active blogging community. They get a free pass on this kinda stuff? Seems to me like everyone but me is yipping away on Twitter.

    I think you have to take it individually. I don’t know the bloggers who are ripping him but what I have read has been balanced. Lucic had a disappointing year, but any fool can see he is off what was an outstanding career peak. There’s no vitriol behind those statements.

  24. Doug McLachlan says:

    Regarding the Lucic contract, if we presume the trade occurs after July 1st (so the Oilers eat $3.5M in bonus) you are trading, in terms of cash money, a $22.5M contract over 5 years. $4.5M per over 5.

    That is not a hard pill to swallow for teams where the $6M cap hit is NOT the limiting factor.

    We are looking at the cap rising to $80M, maybe $82M, but the floor is also going to go up and for some teams that poses a challenge.

    The $1.5M differential of cap to cash can actually matter to some teams.

    If Friedman is right and Lucic is thinking that the idea might be to get out of the Canadian spotlight, there are several options that may not require the Oilers to fork over too much more than Milan.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    This is like Opposite Pronger.

    Allegedly a player’s wife is involved as an impetus for a trade, except this time it will help the team and not harm it.

    The Pronger trade touched off the Decade of Darkness.

    Perhaps the Lucic trade will touch off the Decade of Delight?

    Also,

    I think Lucic has enough cache that you can move him without getting killed in the deal.

    The issue isn’t next year.

    The issue is having a player making $6MM making contributions worth ~$1.5MM for the 4 years after next year when you have a team with $21MM in centers.

    You cannot have that large of a cap issue in one player for that length of time.

    That’s why you work your ass off to not retain as retaining just locks in part of the cap issue, which is why you want to trade him in the first place.

    Agree with Knighttown that I package up Jones or similar if it helps to not retain.

    10th is a non-starter and I don’t see them having to do something that drastic.

    NHL GMs have long memories to their detriment and Lucic has cache still (but its fading with every year)

    Also,

    Someone mentioned Bertuzzi as a comp for Lucic and I posted some info on twitter about it: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1006649453170737152

    Bert has much further to fall before his contribution was that of a 4th liner.

    Lucic will get there much quicker than Bert.

  26. Yeti says:

    Doug McLachlan: Regarding the Lucic contract, if we presume the trade occurs after July 1st (so the Oilers eat $3.5M in bonus) you are trading, in terms of cash money, a $22.5M contract over 5 years. $4.5M per over 5.
    That is not a hard pill to swallow for teams where the $6M cap hit is NOT the limiting factor.

    Spot on, and this difference between cap hit and cash paid is absolutely key to potential Lucic trades. If the Oil retain 1m of the contract, the receiving team is effectively paying $3.5m per year.

    That said, it works even better this time next year when the cash paid after the bonus will decrease markedly. So if the Oilers can hold on for a year and hope for a bounce-back in performance they should have a number of options to trade without significant sweeteners.

  27. Brantford Boy says:

    Jaxon,

    Interesting stuff… anything that puts a player just below Dahlin is pretty special…

    Sounds like a great prospect for Larsson, Klefbom and Phaneuf to mentor…

    So long Lucic and the 10th…

    LT, thanks for the “swagger” photo…

  28. Alpine says:

    If Looch is alright with heading home to VAN, does Brandon Sutter work as a return? Three years left at 4.3 mil and maybe you flip him down the road? I don’t think a player for player swap we can get any more than overpaid bottom 6 forward. Three years left for Sutter is somewhat easy to swallow.

  29. treevojo says:

    If I was a betting man.

    I would be putting my money on Lucic heading to Arizona.

    After July 1 he has a high cap hit for less money.

    OEL is staying for the long haul.

    There next longest contracts are 3 years.

    Chalka will find away to buy low on a marquis name and make it work in the desert.

  30. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Will see about Lucic and a trade.

    – Once his bonus is paid July , he’s costing $4.5MM/year going forward.

    – If he stays here and gets the Kessel 3rd line treatement, with Strome Pool for instance, that isn’t a bad outcome. They have had some effective minutes together

    – Lets not forget that his possession #’s are still fine, his sh% is going to improve.

    – While he is likely in decline: don’t think the Oil are going or able to take a bath to get rid of him

    – I’m also suspicious of the MSM, their narrative that Lucic wants out, so that management has an easier time, and/or resets expectations on what its going to “cost” to rid him

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo:
    If I was a betting man.

    I would be putting my money on Lucic heading to Arizona.

    After July 1 he has a high cap hit for less money.

    OEL is staying for the long haul.

    There next longest contracts are 3 years.

    Chalka will find away to buy low on a marquis name and make it work in the desert.

    My bets are on:

    LAK
    DAL
    FLA

    Darkhorse: CAR

  32. Stud Muffin says:

    There is no Acceptable deal where the the Oilers retain on Lucic

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Will see about Lucic and a trade.

    – Once his bonus is paid July , he’s costing $4.5MM/year going forward.

    – If he stays here and gets the Kessel 3rd line treatement, with Strome Pool for instance, that isn’t a bad outcome.They have had some effective minutes together

    – Lets not forget that his possession #’s are still fine, his sh% is going to improve.

    – While he is likely in decline: don’t think the Oil are going or able to take a bath to get rid of him

    – I’m also suspicious of the MSM, their narrative that Lucic wants out, so that management has an easier time, and/or resets expectations on what its going to “cost” to rid him

    Lucic was also not a drag on GF% which is the most important thing imo

    He didn’t help goals for much but didn’t hurt goals against either.

  34. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Every single one of those deals has a bad contract coming back and/or retention by the Oilers and some have both.

    My goodness, both cap retention and a bad contract (although less term)? No, no, no (in my opinion of course).

    Keep the player if those are the options.

    Guaranteed Lucic will not be as bad as last year. That said, if a deal comes up where the team can free up $4m cap space, a deal makes sense. Trading him for an even bigger dinosaur is rediculous. They are guaranteed to get more for him at the trade deadline,or next summer when his value will be higher.

  35. John Chambers says:

    Stud Muffin:
    There is no Acceptable deal where the the Oilers retain on Lucic

    I’m not sure there are too many caveats the Oilers can take a firm position on, but I agree with you that retaining (any) salary is less than ideal.

    Stall and Phaneuf are decent players, neither of whom fill a position of need. On the other hand, Brandon Sutter is still a useful 3C, kind of like Ryan Strome signed at a high high cost, but one that would compliment our lineup.

    I’d retain half a mil on Lucic. Maybe deal Lucic and Strome with $500K retained for Sutter.

    In the end 500K – $1M is a reasonable hangover to acquire a USEFUL player, as opposed to a shorter-term boat anchor.

  36. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My bets are on:

    LAK
    DAL
    FLA

    Darkhorse: CAR

    Florida would be my second choice.

    LA and DALLAS I have a hard time seeing how it works with there future cap situations.

    I like CAR as a dark horse as well.

    One thing is for sure.

    I don’t see him on another Canadian team.

  37. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Oilman99: Guaranteed Lucic will not be as bad as last year. That said, if a deal comes up where the team can free up $4m cap space, a deal makes sense. Trading him for an even bigger dinosaur is rediculous. They are guaranteed to get more for him at the trade deadline,or next summer when his value will be higher.

    – Again going to the MSM: they are framing it IMO as getting rid of a unproductive, unhappy $6MM/year boat anchor.

    – If The Oil and Lucic are going to be successful in getting rid it of him: it has to be as $4.5MM 30 year player who had a bad 2nd half last year.

    – I think we are getting fed and spun a narrative by the MSM via management

    – Play him on 3rd line, trade the $4.5MM tough-guy 45 points winger when he no doubt does better than last year IMO. that’s the smart move IMO

    – But Hoffman is for sure available: two unhappy players with baggage needing new scenery…

  38. Woogie63 says:

    Lowetide: Meh. I like Lucic, always have. This is about the contract.

    I don’t understand this. The Oilers and other NHL teams have costs (contracts) and Revenue modeled for 3 and 5 years. The Oilers have Lucic contract fit within their medium to long term business plan.

    This contract is just two years old, I would be very surprised if the Lucic contract suddenly became a problem.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    None of those options are worth it. Lucic is a famous enough player. In a year he costs 4 mil per in real money. Retain a mil then if you have to just give him away or a 3rd round pick but taking back any of those contracts is a no go for me.
    Unfortunately if we do give him away, that money will be spent on James Neal

  40. commonfan29 says:

    You’d think the near-certainty of compliance buyouts coming in the next CBA would make this deal a lot easier to make.

    It’s also a reason I wouldn’t give up any assets for another bad contract just because it’s a year or two shorter.

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lucic was signed knowing the first 3-4 years would be his best and where any value would lie. Last year was dismal, and he could very well bounce back next year and should. With that said, if he does then you’ve got maybe another good year or two followed by a few years of maybe bottom line play again. If they’re able to trade him without taking in a big contract or adding too big of a sweetener then it’s good cap management to jump on that.

    They really shouldn’t have more than 1 $6M winger with $25M tied up at centre, especially if it’s not a driver

    If they retain $1M I could see Tallon in Florida being interested. I don’t really know a bad contact they could send the other way.

  42. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    It is largely expected the NHLPA will opt out of the CBA next September, which means there will either be a lockout or new CBA by the 2020/21 season. The last 2 CBAs included amnesty buyouts which didn’t count against the cap, so I don’t understand the long-term concern with Lucic’s contract.

    I guess we will know more after the BOG meeting, but is the sense that expansion is attempting to be rushed prior to the anticipated Sept 10 shutdown? That to me is the bigger question as Lucic’s NMC is much more impactful than his salary over the next 2 years.

    Lucic has not been worth 6MM, but he has still contributed to winning his share of the ice time according to GF% and CF%.

    I’m anticipating the expansion wouldn’t occur just before a lockout as that would be a miserable start for a new expansion fan base. If that holds true then I think moving Looch should only be done if it is a net positive over the next 2 years and not the desperation trades that are mentioned above.

  43. VOR says:

    I think to the right team Milan Lucic has positive value in a trade with no retention.

    It is probable that packaged with the #10 OV you could get more value than with just the ten.

    As an example, #10 and Milan Lucic to Arizona for Dylan Strome.

  44. Primetime says:

    Woogie63: I don’t understand this.The Oilers and other NHL teams have costs (contracts) and Revenue modeled for 3 and 5 years.The Oilers have Lucic contract fit within their medium to long term business plan.

    This contract is just two years old, I would be very surprised if the Lucic contract suddenly became a problem.

    The business plan doesn’t take into account change in on-ice performance.
    1) Lucic for $6 mill and playing to past standard = ok
    2) Lucic for $4 mill and playing to current standard = ok
    3) Lucic for $6 mill and playing to current standard = something less than ok

    I’m sure the business plan is fine with having a $6 mill dollar winger, but not if he is not delivering and other players have to be found in addition to his contract to get optimum on-ice results.

    Hence, as LT said, it’s the contract.

  45. Darth Tu says:

    Hello all,

    Long time lurker and first time chiming in with a comment.

    In terms of Lucic and his NMC, do we know that he wouldn’t consider waiving it if asked to regarding the Seattle expansion? If it’s true that he wants out of Canada I’m not convinced that he’d be against going to Seattle (if he’s with the Oilers long enough to make it to the expansion draft).

  46. blainer says:

    VOR:
    I think to the right team Milan Lucic has positive value in a trade with no retention.

    It is probable that packaged with the #10 OV you could get more value than with just the ten.

    As an example, #10 and Milan Lucic to Arizona for Dylan Strome.

    Now that’s a trade I would like. One of the few mentioned here that would be a good trade for both teams.

    I am keeping looch for sure if someone is trying to saddle us with their shitty contracts.

    Phaneuf is one of the shitty contracts.

    Money retained or a trade along the lines of Strome would be good IMO.

  47. knighttown says:

    Woogie63: I don’t understand this.The Oilers and other NHL teams have costs (contracts) and Revenue modeled for 3 and 5 years.The Oilers have Lucic contract fit within their medium to long term business plan.

    This contract is just two years old, I would be very surprised if the Lucic contract suddenly became a problem.

    The problem is that he was signed for 6 million per year to play 1LW. He has the 9th highest cap hit among left wingers in the entire NHL tied with Artemi Panarin and Filip Forsberg and he can’t do the job. He can’t play 1LW and can’t score enough to even play 2LW based on last years numbers. The result is that we are now in the market for a 1LW and can’t afford one specifically because Lucic exists.

    Put it this way. If you aloted your LW budget in some sort of sensible manner like Columbus for example:

    1LW- Panarin- 6M
    2LW- Foligno- 5.5M
    3LW- Calvert- 2.9M
    4LW- Milano- 800k

    When you stick a 6M on 3LW you get this:

    1LW- Nugent-Hopkins- 6M
    2LW- ??
    3LW- Lucic- 6M
    4LW- Caggiula- 925k

    Now this is on a team that spends the highest percentage of its cap hit on centers in the NHL so they simply can’t afford to spend league average (say 13-16M) on LW.

    Because Lucic can’t play 1LW they’ve had to move RNH and now need to find someone to produce at 2LW for close to league minimum.

    The end result is a team who’s leading goal scoring full time winger was Drake Freaking Caggiula with 13 by far the worst in the NHL.

  48. admiralmark says:

    Problem with this idea is in 3-4 years from now he may not even be an NHL caliber player anymore? Most definitely he’s going to look much much worse. He needs to go at the very latest before the 2019 Season.

    Darth Tu:
    Hello all,

    Long time lurker and first time chiming in with a comment.

    In terms of Lucic and his NMC, do we know that he wouldn’t consider waiving it if asked to regarding the Seattle expansion?If it’s true that he wants out of Canada I’m not convinced that he’d be against going to Seattle (if he’s with the Oilers long enough to make it to the expansion draft).

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    Underraated draft pick. K’Andre Miller. 6’5″ 207lbs,

    Another Darnell Nurse?

  50. Lowetide says:

    Darth Tu:
    Hello all,

    Long time lurker and first time chiming in with a comment.

    In terms of Lucic and his NMC, do we know that he wouldn’t consider waiving it if asked to regarding the Seattle expansion?If it’s true that he wants out of Canada I’m not convinced that he’d be against going to Seattle (if he’s with the Oilers long enough to make it to the expansion draft).

    Welcome! And great point. I think there are reasons to move Lucic this summer, but not at the price of giving up a high draft pick or quality prospect.

  51. PennersPancakes says:

    VOR: As an example, #10 and Milan Lucic to Arizona for Dylan

    This might actually happen. Not because it is a good deal but Chia does love to load up the AHL.

    I kid I kid. Kind of. I’m just cautious of a highly touted prospect not meeting expectations that cant crack a perpetual bottom feeder (glass houses?).

  52. Andy Dufresne says:

    “I’m not thrilled with any of these, but would find the Florida and Vancouver deals acceptable. If Peter Chiarelli can do better, using the Lucic Fame Modulator, credit will be due. I still think it’s Everest to make a trade that doesn’t cost an extra asset.”

    Thank you. You are a reasonable man.

  53. Darth Tu says:

    admiralmark,

    Totally agreed, if the Seattle expansion draft doesn’t happen until 2022 or thereabouts we’re definitely in bigger trouble with the contract than we are at the moment. If it’s in 2020? Maybe it makes sense to keep Lucic around hoping he at least rebounds to the level of 2016-17.

    I’m in the camp of not really wanting to sweeten the deal with first 3 round draft picks if possible.

    I’m also not convinced sending Caleb Jones (or similar) along with Lucic is a good idea either. I’m starting to like the looks of Bakersfield, we’re finally getting to the stage where we have a reasonable amount of prospects (D at least) on the farm.

  54. Oilin4 says:

    Is there a source on the “Lucic’s wife wants out of Edmonton” narrative? Is this social media speculation or is there more to it?

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    OriginalPouzar,

    That $3,611,111 cap hit in year 3 precludes a Russell buyout.

    Yes, that one year hurts, absolutely, however it does not necessarily preclude anything. Not to mention that the CBA is likely to expire at the end of the 2020 season (on the assumption that one of the parties exercises its early termination option) and we very well could have labor unrest that season.

    With that said, a buyout is far from ideal – they always are.

  56. Andy Dufresne says:

    Dallas new coach Montgomery:

    “I think you look at the championship teams that have won in the NHL,” he said. “The teams play a certain way. There’s structure to their game, but there’s creativity and flair to it, too. You have to let horses run. Everyone should look the same when we don’t have the puck and when we do have the puck, everyone should play to their strengths……On the ice, for the Dallas Stars fan, if you can think of an adjective of what we’re going to look like, it’s going to be relentless,” Montgomery told assembled media. “We’re going to be a puck possession team and we’re going to try and make plays everywhere on the ice. When we don’t have the puck, we’re going to pressure you so we can get it back and make more plays.”

    Sounds like the Vegas model/system. Doubt that Lucic fits into that plan.

  57. admiralmark says:

    I wouldn’t give up the 10th this year for someone to take him. But perhaps there is a deal in there somewhere, hard to know without being privvy to the GM’ing going on. I would definitely give up Caleb Jones and or the 2nd rounder if there is no salary retention… The devils in the details as they say. I do agree that if the best deal they can get is for some other horrid contract that lasts beyond 1-2 years then I would keep him 1 more season and hope for a bounce back. There are many ways this cat can be skinned.

    Darth Tu:
    admiralmark,

    Totally agreed, if the Seattle expansion draft doesn’t happen until 2022 or thereabouts we’re definitely in bigger trouble with the contract than we are at the moment.If it’s in 2020? Maybe it makes sense to keep Lucic around hoping he at least rebounds to the level of 2016-17.

    I’m in the camp of not really wanting to sweeten the deal with first 3 round draft picks if possible.

    I’m also not convinced sending Caleb Jones (or similar) along with Lucic is a good idea either.I’m starting to like the looks of Bakersfield, we’re finally getting to the stage where we have a reasonable amount of prospects (D at least) on the farm.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Wouldn’t that be so Oilers. Get rid of a bad contract and immediately go out and sign another’ one.

    I would hope they’d stay away from the aging veterans (Neal) and I don’t think JVR would want to come to EDM anyways (hope not).

    I really do like the idea of finding a cheaper LW replacement like Vladislav Namestnikov and using the cap savings for a few spots in the lineup.

  59. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Another Darnell Nurse?

    Yeah, looks like it, except bigger with more offence.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    Hello all,

    Long time lurker and first time chiming in with a comment.

    In terms of Lucic and his NMC, do we know that he wouldn’t consider waiving it if asked to regarding the Seattle expansion?If it’s true that he wants out of Canada I’m not convinced that he’d be against going to Seattle (if he’s with the Oilers long enough to make it to the expansion draft).

    He may be willing to waive for the expansion draft but there is not guarantee the SEA would take him.

    The waive would be important so we don’t have to protect him (and can use that spot on a more important player), however, its far from a guarantee that his cap hit gets removed via SEA.

  61. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, in a trade with Florida how do you include Petrovic coming back?

  62. Woogie63 says:

    knighttown: The problem is that he was signed for 6 million per year to play 1LW.He has the 9th highest cap hit among left wingers in the entire NHL tied with Artemi Panarin and Filip Forsberg and he can’t do the job.He can’t play 1LW and can’t score enough to even play 2LW based on last years numbers.The result is that we are now in the market for a 1LW and can’t afford one specifically because Lucic exists.

    Put it this way.If you aloted your LW budget in some sort of sensible manner like Columbus for example:

    1LW- Panarin- 6M
    2LW- Foligno- 5.5M
    3LW- Calvert- 2.9M
    4LW- Milano- 800k

    When you stick a 6M on 3LW you get this:

    1LW- Nugent-Hopkins- 6M
    2LW- ??
    3LW- Lucic- 6M
    4LW- Caggiula- 925k

    Now this is on a team that spends the highest percentage of its cap hit on centers in the NHL so they simply can’t afford to spend league average (say 13-16M) on LW.

    Because Lucic can’t play 1LW they’ve had to move RNH and now need to find someone to produce at 2LW for close to league minimum.

    The end result is a team who’s leading goal scoring full time winger was Drake Freaking Caggiula with 13 by far the worst in the NHL.

    Or another opinion might be,

    You can’t pay your 3C $6M so he becomes your 1LW?

  63. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The issue isn’t next year.

    The issue is having a player making $6MM making contributions worth ~$1.5MM for the 4 years after next year when you have a team with $21MM in centers.

    You cannot have that large of a cap issue in one player for that length of time.

    That’s why you work your ass off to not retain as retaining just locks in part of the cap issue, which is why you want to trade him in the first place.

    Agreed. 100%

    As for where to:

    Im fishing in the dark. But for me

    A) Lucic has a home in Los Angeles. Wife Brittany is from BC so west Coast is more likley
    B) Friedman and others suggesting Non-Canadian team is probably preferred
    C) Probably a team looking to add toughness

    West
    Arizona ( Lucic at $4.5m per season with $6m AVV seems ok)
    Los Angeles (Problem…would have to take back a bad contract)
    Colorado ( Lucic at $4.5m per season with $6m AVV seems ok)

    East
    Carolina ( Lucic at $4.5m per season with $6m AVV seems ok)
    NYR ( Lucic at $4.5m per season with $6m AVV seems ok)

  64. McDavidMyMuse says:

    Andy Dufresne: Sounds like the Vegas model/system. Doubt that Lucic fits into that plan.

    Why?

    2015/2016 Kings led the league in 5v5 CF% at 56.37%.
    2014/2015 Bruins were 12th at 51.72%.
    2013/2014 Bruins were 4th at 53.85%.

    Before coming to Edmonton, Lucic played on relatively high-possession teams.

  65. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think Lucic has enough cache that you can move him without getting killed in the deal.

    The issue isn’t next year.

    The issue is having a player making $6MM making contributions worth ~$1.5MM for the 4 years after next year when you have a team with $21MM in centers.

    You cannot have that large of a cap issue in one player for that length of time.

    That’s why you work your ass off to not retain as retaining just locks in part of the cap issue, which is why you want to trade him in the first place.

    Agreed.

    It would also not surprise me to see a package deal that muddies the waters as far as “sweetner” goes

    For example Lucic and Grade A Prospect on an ELC for Jeff Skinner.

    (Not JP……but someone in a range from Safin to Yammo)

    Evens out the money for Carolina

  66. Truth says:

    Woogie63: Or another opinion might be,

    You can’t pay your 3C $6M so he becomes your 1LW?

    The Oilers 3C @ $6M (who is entirely capable as the Oilers 1LW) is many team’s #1 C. This is not even close to an issue.

    The Oilers trading a de facto 1LW for a top 4D and replacing the 1LW with a 3LW for the exact same cap hit as the de facto 1LW is what brought them to this point. They made a poor trade and made a poor assessment of Lucic’s abilities. Kind of funny that the person who made these assessments is the same person now tasked with trying to unload Lucic without losing too much more as a ‘sweetener.’ Still amazing to me that Chiarelli has survived to this point. But hey, why not give him a shot to set the Oilers back McDavid’s entire career as an Oiler!?

  67. Andy Dufresne says:

    McDavidMyMuse: Why?

    2015/2016 Kings led the league in 5v5 CF% at 56.37%.
    2014/2015 Bruins were 12th at 51.72%.
    2013/2014 Bruins were 4th at 53.85%.

    Before coming to Edmonton, Lucic played on relatively high-possession teams.

    Thats true. But Vegas (and it sounds like Dallas now as well) play an up tempo game, that Dallas coach Montgomery calls “‘relentless”. Where possession is established by being quick to the puck and timing your forecheck in a swarm manner, and then being disciplined on the backcheck. Lucic is more of a hit you to seperate you from the puck and then cycle for possession. More of a one and done system. If you fail to gain possession you head off for a line change.

    I could be wrong, but those Bruins and Kings teams played the heavier, grinding possession game.

    I hope am wrong. It would make Dallas one of the top potential destinations.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: Yeah, looks like it, except bigger with more offence.

    Hmmm… suddenly trading down doesn’t seem so bad after all. He switched from F to D, d’you think we could switch him from a left stick to a righty?

  69. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Hmmm… suddenly trading down doesn’t seem so bad after all. He switched from F to D, d’you think we could switch him from a left stick to a righty?

    Totally, and he could probably backup Talbot, too.

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon: Yeah, looks like it, except bigger with more offence.

    Where did Nurse land in your Jaxon-adjusted NHLE in his draft year?

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Oilin4:
    Is there a source on the “Lucic’s wife wants out of Edmonton” narrative? Is this social media speculation or is there more to it?

    Freidman.

  72. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Where did Nurse land in your Jaxon-adjusted NHLE in his draft year?

    16.94 – Surprisingly, Nurse was just above Merkley and Bouchard. Woah. I had no idea his 5-on-5 Primary Points were that impressive. I’ve added him to my table above.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63: Or another opinion might be,

    You can’t pay your 3C $6M so he becomes your 1LW?

    Difference being the 3C/1LW is not coming off two disappointing seasons in a row (Lucic did not produce at evens in his first season), provides value for his contract and has been an important positive member of the team.

  74. godot10 says:

    Jaxon:
    What about to LVK for Clarkson’s contract 2 yrs @$5.25M, or to ARI for Bolland’s contract 1yr @$5.5M. What would Edmonton have to add to Lucic to make that happen?

    I was also thinking about to COL for Eric Johnson (5yrs @ $6.0M), but he also has a NMC (with a 19 team Mod NTC) so he’d have to be traded again or protected prior to the (possible) 2020 expansion draft so I think that’s a no-go unless he dropped his NMC.

    Vegas and Arizona are not paying anything for Clarkson and Bolland in real dollars….the insurance companies are. They take up cap space but the teams don’t have to pay them anything.

    Lucic has to be paid real dollars.

  75. godot10 says:

    Melvis:
    I’m just curious. Is Lucic’s contract actually buyout proof?This might not be an ideal solution, but Craig Button strongly suggested yesterday it’s an option.

    You save basically nothing in cap or real dollars buying him out. So it is buyout proof. All a buyout does is you pay him to stay home for basically the same money with a same cap hit, and you reduce your cap by $750K for years 6-10.

  76. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

  77. Primetime says:

    F Lucic ($6.0 x 6 years) and RHD Benning (RFA) for:

    A) RHD Seabrook ($6.875 x 6) and F Duclair (RFA)

    B) RHD Letang ($7.25 x 4) and F Sprong (RFA)

    Any takers for either of these deals? Are the Oilers better off? Chicago may feel they need some size to battle the Jets…Rutherford is still a big fan of the nuclear deterrent (see Reeves).

    Either deal would require off loading Sekera for no cap return, but I feel that would be easier than doing the same with Lucic.

  78. knighttown says:

    Woogie63: Or another opinion might be,

    You can’t pay your 3C $6M so he becomes your 1LW?

    What a disingenuous argument. You asked what the problem was with paying Lucic 6M since it was budgeted. I told you the problem was that he was hired to do 1LW, he failed and had to be replaced by the 3C. And you blame the 3C?

    That completely misses the point and only weakens your argument. Thank God Nuge can play 1LW at 6M per season or else they’d be looking for a 1LW and a 2LW and would have a slim budget to do so.

    You can’t be hired to perform at 1LW and produce at 3lW value. That’s a major crisis.

  79. knighttown says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

    I sprint up and take Boqvist.

    RHD

    PP specialist

    Electric offence and puck moving

    Can be put with defensive LHD to shelter him in a few years.

    Youngest top guy in the entire draft.

  80. Rondo says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

    That looks like the consensus top 9.

    Oilers would have to choose between Boqvist and Smith. I take this guy .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fI7j5KuGtL0

  81. Yeti says:

    knighttown: I sprint up and take Boqvist.

    You’ll have to get past me first!
    Boqvist it is.

  82. admiralmark says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

    Boqvist would see like the choice at this point. However, I think Ty Smith would be the Oilers choice. And secondly I predict 1 of these 9 to still be there. There’s gonna be a surprise in the Top 10. Just a hunch but seems likely.

  83. Andy Dufresne says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

    Ty Smith

  84. Lowetide says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

    I would pick Ty Smith, but would be fine with Boqvist, Hayton or Farabee. The Russian is coming too (Kravtsov) but I think he goes inside the top 9.

  85. Melvis says:

    godot10,

    I wasn’t certain and Button obviously didn’t read the PLAN. I think it’s Paragraph 27, subsection 4-lw.

  86. Rondo says:

    #10 Boqvist, Smith, Hayton and Kravtsov.

  87. admiralmark says:

    Lowetide: I would pick Ty Smith, but would be fine with Boqvist, Hayton or Farabee. The Russian is coming too (Kravtsov) but I think he goes inside the top 9.

    Of course if this happens that means 1 of these 9 players will then be available.. Which I think will be the case. Bouchard or Wahlstrom are possibly 2 players that might be there at 10? If so I take either. It’s going to get really interesting from an Oiler perspective starting around 5th overall.

  88. Andy Dufresne says:

    One Boqvist vs Hughes comparison

    Skating: Hughes

    Passing: Draw

    Vision: Draw

    Stickhandling: Boqvist

    Shot: Boqvist

    Defense: Hughes

    NHL Readiness: Hughes

  89. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

    Boqvist, no question.

  90. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    You sure about that. A lot of insured contracts are not 100% insured

  91. Melvis says:

    Totally off topic.

    I received a letter today from my bank in regard to my trading account – informing me Citigroup had lost a class action lawsuit launched in 06-07…and were ordered to cough up $75,000,001. I owned a couple of hundred shares in ’06-’07, which I dumped that year.

    There are 2,549,933,000 shares outstanding. After 11 years, I think I’ve got about $6.79 coming to me.

    Never look a gift cheeseburger in the mouth. Oth, I’ll probably have to calculate that into the cap gains section of my next return. lol

    Now some lawyer here will inform me that’s not a cap gain, it’s income. More lol.

  92. adamjames2 says:

    As a relatively casual prospect follower, Boqvist scares me. His scouting report reminds me of Ryan Murphy. If I recall correctly, this blog was very much in favor of trading up to grab Murphy, and he hasn’t exactly established himself to this point.

    I know lots of smart people are calling Merkley a boom or bust pick.. But isn’t Boqvist more of the same? I can’t see the Oilers being patient enough with Boqvist to bring him up to speed in the North American style, and Gord forbid a slow transition to the NA Game ala Puljuliarvi. Given Chiarelli’s recent record with acquisitions and pressure to right the ship, I just can’t see them passing on a safer pick (Smith) even though there isn’t as much upside. Factor in his familiarity with Yamomoto.. Smith just fits the narrative too well.

    Silver lining there, is if they pass on Boqvist and he turns out to be a Karlsson-lite dynamo, we’ll at least have something new to bitch about! 😉

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime:
    F Lucic ($6.0 x 6 years) and RHD Benning (RFA) for:

    A) RHD Seabrook ($6.875 x 6) and F Duclair (RFA)

    B) RHD Letang ($7.25 x 4) and F Sprong (RFA)

    Any takers for either of these deals?Are the Oilers better off?Chicago may feel they need some size to battle the Jets…Rutherford is still a big fan of the nuclear deterrent (see Reeves).

    Either deal would require off loading Sekera for no cap return, but I feel that would be easier than doing the same with Lucic.

    Those two deals aren’t even in the same ball-park – the second deal is much much more palatable – that’s two very good assets coming back. Yes, Letang’s cap hit is high but he’s an elite offensive d-man and Sprong is a great NHL ready prospect.

    Oh, and Russell goes over Sekera, 10 times out of 10 – Sekera is better (even at 80%), Sekera’s NMC goes away prior to the expansion draft.

  94. Jaxon says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fI7j5KuGtL0

    Ryan Merkley – among the best in draft for skating, IQ, playmaking and stickhandling
    K’Andre Miller – see above
    Vitali Kravtsov – he scored at quite the pace/minute in the KHL. His regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft, and that was before he lit it up in the playoffs.
    Serron Noel – scored at roughly the same pace as Zadina, fast, physical

    Boqvist has two huge negatives: 1) sucks at defence 2) two concussions – the defence is concerning, but the concussions would scare the crap out of me as a GM. You never know if those are career changers/enders

  95. VOR says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Jack, Bob and Gene did a mock draft.

    https://youtu.be/HaIIA3-tJFs

    Part 1 teases the 1-9 picks, haven’t released the #10 pick yet but here’s what they came up with:

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard
    10. ????

    Thoughts? Just for fun, let’s say that’s the way the draft goes. You’re stepping up to the podium as GM. Who do you draft?

    I will stick by my guns. I won’t take anyone. I will trade down or out.

    As an example I will go with – trading #10 OV and Milan Lucic to the New York Rangers for Brendan Smith, Brett Howden, #26 OV, and #28 OV.

  96. Lowetide says:

    adamjames2:
    As a relatively casual prospect follower, Boqvist scares me. His scouting report reminds me of Ryan Murphy. If I recall correctly, this blog was very much in favor of trading up to grab Murphy, and he hasn’t exactly established himself to this point.

    I know lots of smart people are calling Merkley a boom or bust pick.. But isn’t Boqvist more of the same? I can’t see the Oilers being patient enough with Boqvist to bring him up to speed in the North American style, and Gord forbid aslow transition to the NA Game ala Puljuliarvi.Given Chiarelli’s recent record with acquisitions and pressure to right the ship, I just can’t see them passing on a safer pick (Smith) even though there isn’t as much upside. Factor in his familiarity with Yamomoto.. Smith just fits the narrative too well.

    Silver lining there, is if they pass on Boqvist and he turns out to be a Karlsson-lite dynamo, we’ll at least have something new to bitch about! 😉

    The worry I have/had about Boqvist (aside from concussions) is that he could be a fabulous puck mover while also being third pairing at 5-on-5 defensively. You’d like a little more from No. 10, but he’s a great player with the puck on his stick.

  97. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Funny, your’re criticizing Boqvist on defense which might be warranted but Merkley doesn’t play any.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Primetime:
    F Lucic ($6.0 x 6 years) and RHD Benning (RFA) for:

    A) RHD Seabrook ($6.875 x 6) and F Duclair (RFA)

    B) RHD Letang ($7.25 x 4) and F Sprong (RFA)

    Any takers for either of these deals?Are the Oilers better off?Chicago may feel they need some size to battle the Jets…Rutherford is still a big fan of the nuclear deterrent (see Reeves).

    Either deal would require off loading Sekera for no cap return, but I feel that would be easier than doing the same with Lucic.

    Lucic’s contract is poison.

    Seabrook’s deal is Fugu chopped up by a blind man and marinated in a vat of arsenic and death cap mushrooms.

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Totally off topic.

    I received a letter today from my bank in regard to my trading account –informing me Citigroup had lost a class action lawsuit launched in 06-07…and were ordered to cough up $75,000,001. I owned a couple of hundred shares in ’06-’07, which I dumped that year.

    There are 2,549,933,000 shares outstanding. After 11 years, I think I’ve got about $6.79 coming to me.

    Never look a gift cheeseburger in the mouth. Oth, I’ll probably have to calculate that into the cap gains section of my next return. lol

    Now some lawyer here will inform me that’s not a cap gain, it’s income. More lol.

    As the philosopher Geddy Lee once said “10 Buck is 10 bucks”

  100. Richard S.S. says:

    People who think Milan Lucic is done are premature. Milan Lucic had an off-year, perhaps even a bad year – it could have been worse. That’s too small a sample size to fairly judge what he can do.

  101. stevebergeron97 says:

    Very intrigued by Vitaly Kravtsov lately, part of me thinks a trade down with someone like Philly to 14, acquire prospects/picks, and draft Kravtsov. We could really use that skill on the wing.

  102. Alpine says:

    Richard S.S.:
    People who think Milan Lucic is done are premature.Milan Lucic had an off-year, perhaps even a bad year – it could have been worse.That’s too small a sample size to fairly judge what he can do.

    2016-17 was an off year for him too. Playing net front on a shit hot PP was the only reason he had respectable boxcars.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    One Boqvist vs Hughes comparison

    Skating: Hughes

    Passing: Draw

    Vision: Draw

    Stickhandling: Boqvist

    Shot: Boqvist

    Defense: Hughes

    NHL Readiness: Hughes

    When Hughes wins in the “defence” category, that says something…

    I worry about taking Boquist – there is the defence deficiency issues, there is the concussion issue, there is the lack of success in the top league issue (not uncommon though).

    The organization cannot afford for this pick to bust.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I think we’ll see a shift in team’s direction after the Cap’s win, as always. There’s not much to do against a more aggressive and stronger team that is as skilled, that plays with sound structure.

    Good on Trotz and Ovi.

    My concern with the smaller skilled D is around this. It’s one thing to hide a great scoring scoring creative forward, another to hide a D that ends up getting a big salary because points that has to hidden when things get intense.

    D play a lot of the game because there are less of them. If you can’t play your bottom pair the top 4 gets tired. In the playoffs there are less penalties so special teams aren’t going to balance the TOI as much as possible in the reg season depending on the match.

    Size doesn’t matter if the player can skate and has a rounded game (like Ellis) and won’t back down when it gets rough. If he does, I think it matters a lot to the teams’s overall depth and quality.

    As WG and others have found sometimes offensive one way D are just trading points with forwards with no net gain. Not worth it IMO. I’d rather have a Larsson.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Richard S.S.:
    People who think Milan Lucic is done are premature.Milan Lucic had an off-year, perhaps even a bad year – it could have been worse.That’s too small a sample size to fairly judge what he can do.

    Issue is it wasn’t an off-year, it was an off-two years.

    His “success” in 2016/17 was almost entirely on the PP – something he had never done in his career (and didn’t repeat) – he was over double his norms and career highs on the PP.

    I actually think his P/60 this past season were higher than the first season (by a tiny amount).

    Its been two non-productive seasons at even strength and there is no reason to believe he will repeat 2016/17 on the PP.

    With that said, maybe its the optimism in me generally, but i do see him bouncing back to around 20-25-45 for the next couple of years.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Richard S.S.:
    People who think Milan Lucic is done are premature.Milan Lucic had an off-year, perhaps even a bad year – it could have been worse.That’s too small a sample size to fairly judge what he can do.

    Lucic’s 5v5 pts/60 in his entire time with EDM (171gp – 2428min) is 1.21/60

    This is at the lower end of 3rd line production despite playing 871 of those minutes with the best player on the planet.

    It is not a small sample, it’s large enough to be a trend.

    Lucic might do better on a team that relies less on rush goals than EDM, but that doesn’t mean he is a candidate to bounce back here.

    His bounce back potential is 3rd line production and the years 30-35 are not kind to NHL players who scored at Lucic’s rate when he was good in his 20’s.

    If the cliff isn’t here, but you can see it from here and he’s under contract for 5 more years.

    It behooves Peter to move him.

  107. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Funny, your’re dissing Boqvist on defense and Merkley doesn’t play any.

    I am consistently contradictory. I’ve seen both of them reported as having major defense issues. But I’ve also seen Merkley may out some pretty massive hits, so he has that going for him. I’ve seen both reported as having attitude issues (the big difference the may be the bigger microscope that a highly touted OHL prospect gets put under). But Merkley doesn’t have the concussion history already. That is where I’d rather have Merkley than Boqvistt.

  108. --hudson-- says:

    Off topic but I found this video on youtube today, with plenty of Oiler highlights from the early 90s. In particular this portion to introduce new Oiler Dave Manson really made me feel old: https://youtu.be/x8Syin1j5Co?t=4m00s

    Shortly after being traded to Edmonton, Dave became a father. In his arms is young Josh Manson, the current standout defencemen for Anaheim.

    Lots of clips of Lisa Miller, Perry Solkowski, Bruce Buchanan, Harry Neale, Louie Debrusk and on.

  109. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Mark Edwards of Hockey Prospect said on radio he wouldn’t draft Merkley anywhere.

    https://www.tsn.ca/radio/winnipeg-1290/afternoon-ride-hour-1-june-11-2018-1.1109743

    27min 22 seconds

  110. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Mark Edwards of Hockey Prospect said on radio he wouldn’t draft Merkleyanywhere.

    And Corey Pronman has Merkley at #10.

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Everyone who thinks Lucic can “bounce back” needs to understand NHL acing curves.

    I posted Bertuzzi’s pts/gm with Lucic’s (which includes Lucic’s 5v4 heater from last year) here: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1006649453170737152?s=19

    Bertuzzi’s curve is very representative of most NHL players.

    They simply are not the player they were in their 20’s when they are in their 30’s.

    The players who do not follow this curve and drop off later (34ish) are the best of the best.

    Lucic is not among the best of the best.

    He was a very good 2nd line LW for a long time, but that time has passed.

    Note: on BOS he played with Kreijci on the 2nd line. He did not play with Bergeron on the first line. In LAK he split time between 1st (Kopitar) and 2nd (Carter).

  112. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Listen to the video if you want.

  113. Mr DeBakey says:

    Richard S.S.:
    People who think Milan Lucic is done are premature.Milan Lucic had an off-year, perhaps even a bad year – it could have been worse.That’s too small a sample size to fairly judge what he can do.

    I can’t believe people keep saying Lucic had an off year.

    He had more 5v5 points, 24, in 17/18 than he did in 16/17, 23.
    He’s trending towards 25 next year!

  114. Mr DeBakey says:

    On the day the Edmonton Oilers signed Milan Lucic, it wasn’t at all clear the move improved the team. In a post called Silent Sorrow in Empty Boats

    Man, was I ever in a bad mood in that thread.
    I hated the Lucic signing from the git-go.
    But y’know, I didn’t think the Oilers were signing a barely 3rd-line winger, I thought they’d have a 1st/2nd liner for at least a few years.

    The Oilers always make my pessimism optimism.

  115. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Loui Eriksson ($6M times four) for Milan Lucic ($6 million times five) gives the Oilers a player with more utility (he can play in all three disciplines) and offensive ability (despite last year’s poor totals).

    Actually he was even worse the prior season to last… with much more PP time. He scored one more point in 16-17 than last year in 15 more games.

    He’s still a decent PKer, where his lack of top-end speed and hands aren’t liabilities.

    But he’s essentially done, whereas Lucic is not. VAN would have to add a decent asset or retain to make this trade go IMO.

    Hmm… still don’t think I would do it.

    It’s likely a moot point though as Canadian teams seem to be out of the running.

  116. Munny says:

    Jaxon: I was also thinking about to COL for Eric Johnson (5yrs @ $6.0M), but he also has a NMC (with a 19 team Mod NTC) so he’d have to be traded again or protected prior to the (possible) 2020 expansion draft so I think that’s a no-go unless he dropped his NMC.

    The odds of the Avs trading their first pairing Dman for Lucic are somewhere between impossible and never.

  117. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It behooves Peter to move him.

    Sure. If there’s a reasonable deal. It also behooves Chia not to make things worse by trading Looch for the likes of, say, Eriksson.

  118. Woogie63 says:

    knighttown: What a disingenuous argument. You asked what the problem was with paying Lucic 6M since it was budgeted. I told you the problem was that he was hired to do 1LW, he failed and had to be replaced by the 3C. And you blame the 3C?

    That completely misses the point and only weakens your argument. Thank God Nuge can play 1LW at 6M per season or else they’d be looking for a 1LW and a 2LW and would have a slim budget to do so.

    You can’t be hired to perform at 1LW and produce at 3lW value. That’s a major crisis.

    I never blamed Nuge for playing 1LW, if Nuge is off McDavid’s line by Christmas does that make him a failure?
    Was Lucic hired to be the 1LW for ever,? If he is 2LW next year and helps Draistail is that awful?

    Your 2-7 forwards should expect to play different spots in the batting order?

    Over the last two years
    Lucic
    164games
    33 goals
    51 Assists
    84 points
    130 PIMs

    Hopkins
    144 games
    42 goals
    49 assists
    91 points
    49 PIM

  119. Wilde says:

    Jaxon,

    On Boqvist:

    He’s actually pretty strong at turning the puck over, especially in the neutral zone, it’s more the in-zone strength along the walls kind of defending he’s ill-suited for at the moment. His stick is good and he understands lanes.

    I wouldn’t rate Merkley’s defending above his, but I also don’t have issues with drafting either player and if I was a team like the Islanders I would draft both at 11 & 12.

    On K’Andre Miller:

    This player is from the school of defensive reputations with surprisingly sterling underlying offensive numbers, as you’ve pointed out with his 5 on 5 scoring numbers, however he also shows extremely well in shot assists/60, scoring chance assists/60, and other manually tracked flow of play metrics ahead of Bode Wilde who is ranked higher than him due to Bode’s ridiculous hands, skating and offensive instincts.

    (the major standout in the CHL tracked stats is Merkley though, absolutely disgusting passing numbers, if he’s on a team with stronger forwards next year he’s going to put up Ryan Ellis numbers.)

    Miller at #41 would be fantastic, don’t think he’ll get past some of the math teams like Carolina at the late 20’s early 30’s.

    On Milan:

    Man, this is tough to talk about.

    Is the ‘confidence there’s a fit’ a favour paid by Friedman?

    Is a fit deemed palatable by Peter the same as one deemed so in these quarters?

    Speculating on trade values is so, so tough normally and this is a unique situation buoyed by Milan’s fame on one end, and the traditional chokehold the opposing 30 men have on a manager whose hand is forced.

    I’d really want to move him. His family’s hurting, and I believe in the future when McDavid makes more magic with cheaper portsiders it will be more generally accepted how inarguably awful his performance was in that role.

  120. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Listen to the video if you want.

    I believe you, I just suspect the criticism is a bit overblown and has taken on a life of its own. He’s one of the youngest players in the draft and has the hockey IQ to hopefully overcome his defensive weaknesses. Some of his perceived attitude problems are because he’s passionate and hates losing or being antagonized and has lost his temper on the ice a few times. I’m actually okay with that. He has one of the highest hockey IQs in the draft, one of the fastest skaters, one of the best passes, one of the best stickhandlers. His upside of playing with McDavid is just too high to ignore.

  121. godot10 says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Very intrigued by Vitaly Kravtsov lately, part of me thinks a trade down with someone like Philly to 14, acquire prospects/picks, and draft Kravtsov. We could really use that skill on the wing.

    The Oilers and Russians are oil and water. The Oilers as an organization are not sensitive or responsive to cultural difference.

  122. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    His friend coached him in minor midget for a year . Mark Edwards know this player very well. His compete level is weak.

    Doesn’t really matter Oilers are not drafting him at #10.

  123. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The players who do not follow this curve and drop off later (34ish) are the best of the best.

    Carl Soderberg says, “Hi!”

    These are the kind of traps that arguing from the general to the specific and modelling future outcomes sets for us humans. 😉

  124. godot10 says:

    Jaxon: And Corey Pronman has Merkley at #10.

    Corey Pronman will never have to play hockey with him or hang out with him. Has Pronman interviewed him in person. Taken him out for a cup of coffee. Talked to any of his coaches. Does the off-ice confirm the on-ice?

  125. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Everyone who thinks Lucic can “bounce back” needs to understand NHL acing curves.

    I posted Bertuzzi’s pts/gm with Lucic’s (which includes Lucic’s 5v4 heater from last year) here: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1006649453170737152?s=19

    Bertuzzi’s curve is very representative of most NHL players.

    They simply are not the player they were in their 20’s when they are in their 30’s.

    The players who do not follow this curve and drop off later (34ish) are the best of the best.

    Lucic is not among the best of the best.

    He was a very good 2nd line LW for a long time, but that time has passed.

    Note: on BOS he played with Kreijci on the 2nd line. He did not play with Bergeron on the first line. In LAK he split time between 1st (Kopitar) and 2nd (Carter).

    For a portion of my career, I helped decide which elite athletes one of brands would sponsor. If was a significant budget we sponsored elite cyclists, triathletes, swimmers, we needed winners or our brand was not on TV. We normally signed a three year commitment. We had lots of people applying for the funding, and we had the resources to get it right.

    When it came down to handing out the money, we weighed a couple of things more than others…

    Who was the coach
    The intensity of the training
    The history of injury.

    We sponsored lots of older athletes …. when we could see they are killing the training.

  126. Jaxon says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    His friend coached him in minor midget for a year . Mark Edwards know this player very well. His compete level is weak.

    I know this is behind a pay wall but it is a very good breakdown of Merkley’s skills and his issues and what that might mean.

    https://theathletic.com/269807/2018/03/13/pronman-evaluating-ryan-merkley-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/

  127. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would hope they’d stay away from the aging veterans (Neal) and I don’t think JVR would want to come to EDM anyways (hope not).

    I really do like the idea of finding a cheaper LW replacement like Vladislav Namestnikov and using the cap savings for a few spots in the lineup.

    Totally on board with Namestnikov, depending on the cost of course.

  128. Jaxon says:

    godot10: Corey Pronman will never have to play hockey with him or hang out with him.Has Pronman interviewed him in person.Taken him out for a cup of coffee.Talked to any of his coaches.Does the off-ice confirm the on-ice?

    I don’t think he’s spoken to him personally. I think he has spoken to people on the ground there.

    From Pronman’s analysis of Merkley:

    “I was talking to a scout in Sweden earlier this season about 2018 draft prospect Adam Boqvist, who several NHL scouts also think is a guy with personality issues”… We just know more about Merkley’s issues because he’s within an hour of the center of the hockey media universe.

    And this…

    “Suggestions I’ve heard over the past few months that some teams might not have him ever listed as a draft prospect is completely nuts to me (although I’ve also heard from some NHL teams who feel his issues are overblown and have him in their top 10)”

  129. rickithebear says:

    Looked at league equivalency
    OHL .32/.30 = 1.0667
    WHL .30/.30 = 1.0
    Qmjhl .28/.3 = .9333
    USHL .27/.3 = .9
    USHL NDTP adjusted for team depth = .80
    And
    Age equivalency adjustment relative to CHL production. Who knew as you got older you generate more than younger players.
    (((Birth date between Sept 16 1999 to Sept 15 2000)/365) x .25) + .50)

    Age/league NHLE
    players in order by Points then even points.
    Similar points choose better even production.
    NA fwds in Buttons Top 100 draft rank indicated
    Any age equiv of .718 is 17yr on july1 important if slide occurs in contract.
    One extra yr to 27 versus the pre July 1 players.

    #2 Svechnikov RW 6’2” 185lb (.633)
    45g 40a 85p
    29evg 26eva 55 evp

    #10 Wahlstrom RW 6’1” 195 lb (.686)
    40g 40a 80p
    30evg 22eva 52p
    ——————————————— tier 1 NA fwds

    #11 Farabee 5’11” 152 (.611)
    22g 38a 60p
    17evg 28eva 45evp

    #3 Zadina 6’1” 192 (.550)
    33g 28a 61p
    25evg 18eva 43 Evp

    #71 Gruden 6’0” 172 (.659)
    25g 32a 57p
    18evg 27eva 45evp
    ————————————-

    #42 Wise 5’10” 185 (.613)
    20g 40a 60p
    15evg 25evp 40 Evp

    #46 HIllis 5’10” 168 (.694)
    20g 40a 60p
    11evg 29eva 40 Evp

    #64 Dudas 5’8” 159 (.688)
    28g 30a 58p
    21evg 21eva 42 evp

    #15 Noel 6’4” 200 (.724) 17 yr on July 1
    29g 25a 54p
    24evg 19eva 43 Evp
    ——————————

    #17 Thomas 5’10” 1?9 (.572)
    16g 44a 60p
    12evg 24eva 36 Evp

    #7 Hayton 6’1” 190 (.683)
    20g 37 a 57p
    12 evg 24eva 36 evp

    #88 Fonstad 5’10” 162 (.653)
    16g 38a 54p
    12evg 23eva 35evp

    #57 McShane 5’11” 190 (.604)
    16g 35a 51p
    10evg 25eva 35 35evp
    ————————————

    #82 Ranta 6’1” 192 (.678)
    31g 16a 47p
    24g 12a 36evp

    #100 Jenkins 6’1” .(.727) 17yr July 1
    19g 22a 41p
    16g 21a 37p
    ————————————

    #18 Dellandreau 6’0” 180 (.713)
    25g 30a 55p
    14evg 18eva 32evp

    #56 Khovanov 5’10” 190 (.644)
    16g 35a 51p
    10evg 21eva 31 evp
    ——————————

    #78 Pekar 6’?” 170 (.590)
    11g 31a 42p
    9evg 24eva 33evp

    #89 Zavgoradony 5’9” 171 (.725) 17yr on July 1
    25g 20a 45p
    16evg 14eva 30 evp

    #35 McLaughlin 5’11” 156 (.603)
    19g 24a 43p
    16evg 13 Eva 29 evp

    #53 Groulx (.577)
    20g 19a 39p
    17evg 13eva 30evp

    #87 Burzan 6’1” 180 (.578)
    15g 19a 34p does he get higher total points with more pp.
    14 evg 16eva 30 evp

    #40 Foudy 6’0” 175 (.597)
    19g 13a 32p
    18evg 11eva 29 Evp
    ——————————————

    #60 Fortier 5’?” 164 (.596)
    19g 25a 44p
    12evg 16eva 28 evp

    #28 Veleno 6’1” 190 (.582) he has an unnatural Evp/tp ratio
    Best case ratio for 28 Evp is 14ppp 42tp
    16g 40a 56p
    11evg 17eva 28 Evp

    #29 McLeod 6’2” 190 (.504)
    17g 28a 45p
    12 evg 15eva 27 evp

    #67 Henman 6’0” 160 (.656)
    8g 33a 41p
    6evg 20 Eva 26 Evp
    ———————————

    #58 Clark 6’1” (.521)
    15g 17a 32p
    11evg 15evg 26evp

    #93 R Sutter 6’3” 205 (.528)
    16g 18a 34p
    11evg 14eva 25evp

    #94 guay 5’11” 174 (.476)
    17g 15a 32p
    13g 11a 24p

    I have done these charts in excel for years.
    The age/league NHLE consistently aligns with draft rank.
    The odd outlier was nicked for size in the past
    Debrincet …….

    This year is all over the place.

    With all the time in hospital since Jan
    1. I did not do the chart.
    2. I did not read LT and other draft Randi,s (not a magician just conjures thru knowledge) for highlight and low light perspective. fastest ……

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u14JFjF9jBg

    3. Review vas much video as possible.

    This was the first kick at the can usually a mid season evaluation.

    Lower 2nds and upper 3rds likely gets you great even production value this year.

  130. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Thats true. But Vegas (and it sounds like Dallas now as well) play an up tempo game, that Dallas coach Montgomery calls “‘relentless”.Where possession is established by being quick to the puck and timing your forecheck in a swarm manner, and then being disciplined on the backcheck. Lucic is more of a hit you to seperate you from the puck and then cycle for possession. More of a one and done system. If you fail to gain possession you head off for a line change.

    I could be wrong, but those Bruins and Kings teams played the heavier, grinding possession game.

    I hope am wrong. It would make Dallas one of the top potential destinations.

    Vegas has many slow players who can handle the up tempo game.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: For a portion of my career, I helped decide which elite athletes one of brands would sponsor.If was a significant budget we sponsored elite cyclists, triathletes, swimmers,we needed winners or our brand was not on TV.We normally signed a three year commitment.We had lots of people applying for the funding, and we had the resources to get it right.

    When it came down to handing out the money, we weighed a couple of things more than others…

    Who was the coach
    The intensity of the training
    The history of injury.

    We sponsored lots of older athletes …. when we could see they are killing the training.

    I would bank on those who have great results and are in the right part of the aging curve.

  132. Rebilled says:

    I always find that these firesale trades always help the hahahahahaah

    Sorry, couldn’t make it through.

    Lucic for Hoffman is probably the most likely.

  133. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    One Boqvist vs Hughes comparison

    Skating: Hughes

    Passing: Draw

    Vision: Draw

    Stickhandling: Boqvist

    Shot: Boqvist

    Defense: Hughes

    NHL Readiness: Hughes

    Concussion: Boqvist

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: Carl Soderberg says, “Hi!”

    These are the kind of traps that arguing from the general to the specific and modelling future outcomes sets for us humans.

    Soderburg:

    Age Pts/gm
    28 0.66
    29 0.54
    30 0.62
    31 0.18
    32 0.48

    Soderburg 5v5 pts/60
    28 2.12
    29 1.53
    30 1.52
    31 0.72
    32 1.45

    His aging curve seems to be on par.

    Shitty 31 year old year.

    Also,

    Players who play a very physical game hit the cliff earlier due to wear and tear.

    Soderberg has 400 NHL games at this point as he played in the SEL for most of his 20’s.

    Lucic has played in the NHL since he was 19 and has 925 games.

    Its like comparing a Ford F150 that delivered bales on the farm for 11 years and has 325K on the odometer to a Saab that has been driven in the city for 5 years as a commuter car.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: Totally on board with Namestnikov, depending on the cost of course.

    I too would like to win the lottery.

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: Sure. If there’s a reasonable deal. It also behooves Chia not to make things worse by trading Looch for the likes of, say, Eriksson.

    I disagree with this.

    Lucic’s deal is with a team to the bitter end and its gonna be awful for the last 4-5 years. You cannot buy it out. Its like herpes or luggage, it never leaves.

    Eriksson is at least “buy-out-able” in a couple years.

    I think he’s worth more than Eriksson and we’ll probably find out soon.

  137. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear: #71 Gruden 6’0” 172 (.659)
    25g 32a 57p
    18evg 27eva 45evp

    rickithebear: #15 Noel 6’4” 200 (.724) 17 yr on July 1
    29g 25a 54p
    24evg 19eva 43 Evp

    I have Gruden and Noel as the most underrated forwards (along with Kravtsov). but Gruden is criminally underrated. I also can’t find any negatives in his scouting reports either, except maybe size and I think he’s 5’11.75″, which isn’t exactly small. Great work ethic, decent skating, responsible 2-way play. He has good bloodlines, too (if you put any stock in that), his dad, John Sr., (92 NHL GP with Bruins, Sens and Caps) even played for Chiarelli in his last year in Ottawa and just finished coaching the Hamilton Bulldogs in the Memorial Cup. He outscored Farabee at even strength and played against tougher competition as far as I can tell. I cannot figure that one out, except that he isn’t a flashy player. Weird.

    The highest I’ve seen anyone rank Gruden is #50! Crazy! At least I’ve seen Noel ranked as high as #14.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63: I never blamed Nuge for playing 1LW, if Nuge is off McDavid’s line by Christmas does that make him a failure?
    Was Lucic hired to be the 1LW for ever,?If he is 2LW next year and helps Draistail is that awful?

    Your 2-7 forwards should expect to play different spots in the batting order?

    Over the last two years
    Lucic
    164games
    33 goals
    51 Assists
    84 points
    130 PIMs

    Hopkins
    144 games
    42 goals
    49 assists
    91 points
    49 PIM

    So, Nuge has more goals and points, in less games, while playing center (including 42% of his even strength time against elites in 2016/17), while playing less minutes with McDavid (and generally with 3rd liners -on the Oilers) and much less PP1 time while being 5 or so years longer.

  139. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Just to follow up, Gene, Jack and Bob’s picks were released.

    https://youtu.be/fvxlDHrf_U4

    1. Dahlin
    2. Svechnikov
    3. Dobson
    4. Hughes
    5. Tkachuck
    6. Zadina
    7. Whalstrom
    8. Kotkaniemi
    9. Bouchard

    10:
    Gene – Boqvist
    Jack – Hayton
    Bob – Kravtsov

    40:
    Gene – Merkley
    Jack – Rodrigue
    Bob – Bernard-Docker

  140. Harpers Hair says:

    Good grief. Who the Oilers pick at 10 is out of their control. Every player outside the top 3 has warts. Hope and a prayer.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63: I never blamed Nuge for playing 1LW, if Nuge is off McDavid’s line by Christmas does that make him a failure?
    Was Lucic hired to be the 1LW for ever,?If he is 2LW next year and helps Draistail is that awful?

    Your 2-7 forwards should expect to play different spots in the batting order?

    Over the last two years
    Lucic
    164games
    33 goals
    51 Assists
    84 points
    130 PIMs

    Hopkins
    144 games
    42 goals
    49 assists
    91 points
    49 PIM

    Over the last 2 years: Primary Points/60

    16/17
    Lucic with McDavid 1.19
    RNH w/ McDavid N/A (6 minutes together)

    Lucic w/o McDavid 0.87
    RNH w/o McDavid 1.17

    17/18
    Lucic with McDavid 0.72
    RNH w/ McDavid 3.19

    Lucic w/o McDavid 0.78
    RNH w/o McDavid 1.02

    Its not really close.

    Its also interesting to note that when RNH wasn’t with McDavid he was mostly with Lucic.

  142. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I disagree with this.

    Lucic’s deal is with a team to the bitter end and its gonna be awful for the last 4-5 years.You cannot buy it out.Its like herpes or luggage, it never leaves.

    Eriksson is at least “buy-out-able” in a couple years.

    I think he’s worth more than Eriksson and we’ll probably find out soon.

    disagree. In one year Lucic at 50% retained costs 2 million dollars real money a year for the rest of his contract. You can trade that to teams that cap floor is a more useful number than cap ceiling. Or if you trade him to through a third team at lets say 25% retained. That trades 1 million dollar real money but a 1.5 mil cap hit

  143. leadfarmer says:

    Jaxon: And Corey Pronman has Merkley at #10.

    Complete boom or bust prospect. Either you are right and look like a genious or you are wrong and you throw away a draft pick. The talent is there

  144. admiralmark says:

    The comparison in contracts between Lucic and Eriksson is being bandied about enough I decided to see what the buyouts would look like between these 2 players if this was done in 2019. Particularly the Cap hit was my interest. I used Cap Friendly’s Buyout calculator so hopefully I got this right.

    To Buyout Lucic 1 year from now it would be an 8 year buyout period.
    The resulting Cap Hit each year would look like this appx.

    2019- $ 3.7
    2020- $ 5.6
    2021- $ 4.1
    2022- $ 5.6
    2023- $ .6
    2024- $ .6
    2025- $ .6
    2026- $ .6

    Looking at Eriksson again with a buyout 1 year from now would take
    place over a 6 year period instead of the 8 for Lucic. And would look like this:

    2019- $5.5
    2020- $5.5
    2021- $3.5
    2022- $ .5
    2023- $ .5
    2024- $ .5

    Strange how the numbers jump around for Lucic in the first few years but it’s easy to see that if that was the route chosen Eriksson would be considerably more palatable by the 3rd year of the buyout.
    Personally I’d be more apt to try for a trade even if I had to hang onto him 1 more season. I doubt either of these players gets bought out in the next 2 years that’s for sure.

  145. admiralmark says:

    Following the same trend as above here’s the Cap hit on buyouts of Phaneuf and Perry.

    Phaneuf

    2019 $ 2.9
    2020 $ 5.4
    2021 $ 1.4
    2022 $ 1.4

    Perry

    2019 $ 2.6
    2020 $ 6.6
    2021 $ 2.0
    2022 $ 2.0

    Seabrook is absolutely nauseating. It takes 10 Years to complete and looks like this:

    2019 $ 3.7
    2020 $ 6.7
    2021 $ 3.7
    2022 $ 6.7
    2023 $ 5.2
    2024 $ .8
    2025 $ .8
    2026 $ .8
    2027 $ .8
    2028 $ .8

    Yeeesh!

  146. Jaxon says:

    leadfarmer: Complete boom or bust prospect.Either you are right and look like a genious or you are wrong and you throw away a draft pick.The talent is there

    Absolutely.

  147. Alpine says:

    Well, they’re taking Kravtsov now lol. Bob picked him in the mock.

  148. flea says:

    This is pure speculation but I think the Lucic trade speaks to issues in the dressing room. Maybe not completely dysfunctional (see Ottawa) but not cohesive. I’ve played in bands for years and the emotional commitment and synergy of the group drives performance. It’s not the same, obviously, in sports but there are parallels to attaining the top performance out of that group at that moment in time.

    There also appears to be some dysfunction in the Oilers organization, which I think would impact the team. There are tons of people working in and around the team for that organization, and bad structure at the top affects everyone. We’ve all had a job like that.

    As a fan, it’s like a broken record with the Oilers. It’s disheartening, and I have to admit, I’m less interested in how this plays out than I maybe would’ve been in the past.

  149. OilSlickster says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    K’Andre Miller or Akil Thomas

  150. Jaxon says:

    VOR:
    Very interesting article and table

    https://dobberprospects.com/analytics-and-the-draft/

    WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY GRUDEN ISN’T RANKED WAY HIGHER! (Sorry, not yelling, just forgot my caps was on, but now I’ll leave it as it is befitting my dismay, haha)

  151. VOR says:

    Jaxon: WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY GRUDEN ISN’T RANKED WAY HIGHER! (Sorry, not yelling, just forgot my caps was on, but now I’ll leave it as it is befitting my dismay, haha)

    I actually posted it for you. I thought it reinforced your argument.

    Though it also helps justify Ty Smith as a top five pick.

  152. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    When we bet on training intensity we won more often, at the very top of the athlete world, not much separates 2nd from 15th.

  153. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: Vitali Kravtsov – he scored at quite the pace/minute in the KHL. His regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft,

    I’m not trying to be an arse here, but I’m trying to wrap my head around your statement that Kravtsov’s regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft.

    Here’s what we have for him.

    7 in 35 khl
    7 in 9 VHL
    3 in 1 MHL

    I’m a bit concerned that these numbers are skewed. The numbers don’t look good to me at all. What happens if he only got 6 in 35 in the KHL or 5. And how much weight is placed on the one game in the MHL, which I assume would be comparable to something like AJHL.

  154. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Lucic’s contract is poison.

    Seabrook’s deal is Fugu chopped up by a blind man and marinated in a vat of arsenic and death cap mushrooms.

    I spit coffee across my my entire desk when I read this. Thanks. Had some semi-important papers on there too. It was the blind man that got me.

  155. Primetime says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Lucic’s contract is poison.

    Seabrook’s deal is Fugu chopped up by a blind man and marinated in a vat of arsenic and death cap mushrooms.

    LOL…best trade response ever.

    While I agree, the issue is what does Chia think. Friedman says that the Oilers seem very confident that they can trade Lucic without retaining or taking back a bad contract. While that sounds good to us, what we don’t know is what does Chia consider a “bad contract”? Remember there were rumours of Seabrook willing to sign here, the year before he hit UFA. Move one veteran “winner” out for another in a position of need (RHD).

    Of course I wouldn’t do it…but I can picture “Homer” Chiarelli drooling now…”MMMMmmm….Fuuguuuu…..”

  156. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar: Those two deals aren’t even in the same ball-park – the second deal is much much more palatable – that’s two very good assets coming back.Yes, Letang’s cap hit is high but he’s an elite offensive d-man and Sprong is a great NHL ready prospect.

    Oh, and Russell goes over Sekera, 10 times out of 10 – Sekera is better (even at 80%), Sekera’s NMC goes away prior to the expansion draft.

    Letang carries a huge injury risk and carries a bigger cap hit…as such, a better sweetner comes from Pittsburgh (especially if its true that the coach doesn’t want to play Sprong)

    And of course you would like to get rid of Russell before Sekera, but given level of play and stated desire to stay in one geographical area, I guarantee it’s easier to move Sekera, regardless if you WANT to get rid of Russell.

  157. JimmyV1965 says:

    So how much stock do we put into a teenager’s attitude? I don’t think Mark Edwards has any issue with the talent and skill of Merkley. His issue is with character. Edwards has seen him up close and personal and knows his Midget coach very well. His concerns are not that he can’t play defence, it’s that he has zero interest in playing defence and gives up on the play all the time. He also doesn’t like the way he acts in the ice, throwing up his hands etc. These are red flags for me, but he’s a frickin kid. His attitude could swing 180 in one summer. Still…

  158. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not trying to be an arse here, but I’m trying to wrap my head around your statement that Kravtsov’s regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft.

    Here’s what we have for him.

    7 in 35 khl
    7 in 9 VHL
    3 in 1 MHL

    I’m a bit concerned that these numbers are skewed.The numbers don’t look good to me at all. What happens if he only got 6 in 35 in the KHL or 5. And how much weight is placed on the one game in the MHL, which I assume would be comparable to something like AJHL.

    Not at all… You’re right, the numbers are a bit skewed. Kravtsov is a small sample size issue for sure (not many minutes in not many games).
    he scored 1.97 Primary Pts per minute in the KHL. He was only getting about 5.2 ETOI.

    MHL (0.310) is somewhere between OHL (0.323) and WHL (0.302), KHL (0.804) is the closest league to the NHL in terms of difficulty to score.

    I don’t know if this is readable but I’ll give his calculation:
    =Primary Points (1.97)/60*14.4166666666667(Median TOI for Top 6 Fwd)*82GP*(1-(AGE (17.73yrs)-17.5)*0.1672)*1.525(My Inflation Constant)*KHL to NHL rate of 0.804*1.0 ERA ADJUSTMENT (Not applicable) = 45.76

    Sidney Crosby 48.18
    Vitali Kravtsov 45.76 (sample size alert (just 182 minutes) and TOI against 4th liners alert! KHL 4th liners though, but his superb playoffs make this number seem closer than I initially thought. EDIT: His NHLe from his playoffs is 45 pts (11 pts in 16 GP).

    Connor McDavid 44.02
    Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
    Joel Farabee 32.23
    Rasmus Dahlin 32.04
    K’Andre Miller 31.70
    Adam Mascherin 29.04 (1st draft season)
    Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79
    Ryan Strome 28.11
    Johnny Gruden 27.62
    Leon Drasiatl 25.93
    Filip Zadina 23.90
    Kailer Yamamoto 23.85
    Serron Noel 23.70
    Quinn Hughes 23.60
    Ty Rattie 21.55
    Jesperi Kotkaniemi 21.19
    Tyler Benson 20.55
    Jacob Ragnarsson 20.20
    Adam Boqvist 19.87
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 18.70
    Zach Kassian 17.64
    Kirill Maksimov 17.41
    Darnell Nurse 16.94
    Ryan Merkley 16.29
    Evan Bouchard 15.64
    Ty Smith 15.43
    Seth Jones 14.56
    Ty Emberson 14.48
    Aaron Ekblad 13.45
    Milan Lucic 13.37
    Calen Addison 12.32
    Noah Dobson 11.52

  159. VOR says:

    JimmyV1965:
    So how much stock do we put into a teenager’s attitude? I don’t think Mark Edwards has any issue with the talent and skill of Merkley. His issue is with character. Edwards has seen him up close and personal and knows his Midget coach very well. His concerns are not that he can’t play defence, it’s that he has zero interest in playing defence and gives up on the play all the time. He also doesn’t like the way he acts in the ice, throwing up his hands etc. These are red flags for me, but he’s a frickin kid. His attitude could swing 180 in one summer. Still…

    Fair question but the correct answer is zero. At this moment in time Merkley’s behaviour predicts nothing about his behaviour at 25.

  160. JimmyV1965 says:

    VOR: Fair question but the correct answer is zero. At this moment in time Merkley’s behaviour predicts nothing about his behaviour at 25.

    I can attest to this personally. I was such a better person at 25 than I was at 17. But there was some circumstance involved in this too. There’s just so much at stake here, it honestly gives me pause, even though I know how much I changed.

  161. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: Not at all… You’re right, the numbers are a bit skewed. Kravtsov is a small sample size issue for sure (not many minutes in not many games).
    he scored 1.97 Primary Pts per minute in the KHL. He was only getting about 5.2 ETOI.

    MHL (0.310) is somewhere between OHL (0.323) and WHL (0.302), KHL (0.804) is the closest league to the NHL in terms of difficulty to score.

    I don’t know if this is readable but I’ll give his calculation:
    =Primary Points (1.97)/60*14.4166666666667(Median TOI for Top 6 Fwd)*82GP*(1-(AGE (17.73yrs)-17.5)*0.1672)*1.525(My Inflation Constant)*KHL to NHL rate of 0.804*1.0 ERA ADJUSTMENT (Not applicable) = 45.76

    Sidney Crosby 48.18
    Vitali Kravtsov 45.76 (sample size alert (just 182 minutes) and TOI against 4th liners alert! KHL 4th liners though, but his superb playoffs make this number seem closer than I initially thought. EDIT: His NHLe from his playoffs is 45 pts (11 pts in 16 GP).

    Connor McDavid 44.02
    Andrei Svechnikov 38.80
    Joel Farabee 32.23
    Rasmus Dahlin 32.04
    K’Andre Miller 31.70
    Adam Mascherin 29.04 (1st draft season)
    Oliver Wahlstrom 28.79
    Ryan Strome 28.11
    Johnny Gruden 27.62
    Leon Drasiatl 25.93
    Filip Zadina 23.90
    Kailer Yamamoto 23.85
    Serron Noel 23.70
    Quinn Hughes 23.60
    Ty Rattie 21.55
    Jesperi Kotkaniemi 21.19
    Tyler Benson 20.55
    Jacob Ragnarsson 20.20
    Adam Boqvist 19.87
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 18.70
    Zach Kassian 17.64
    Kirill Maksimov 17.41
    Darnell Nurse 16.94
    Ryan Merkley 16.29
    Evan Bouchard 15.64
    Ty Smith 15.43
    Seth Jones 14.56
    Ty Emberson 14.48
    Aaron Ekblad 13.45
    Milan Lucic 13.37
    Calen Addison 12.32
    Noah Dobson 11.52

    Thanks. I appreciate the detailed response.

  162. GMB3 says:

    Woogie63: I don’t understand this.The Oilers and other NHL teams have costs (contracts) and Revenue modeled for 3 and 5 years.The Oilers have Lucic contract fit within their medium to long term business plan.

    This contract is just two years old, I would be very surprised if the Lucic contract suddenly became a problem.

    JimmyV1965: Concussion: Boqvist

    Draisaitl had a concussion

    Relevance: None

  163. Hot Eire says:

    Rondo:
    Jaxon,

    Funny, your’re criticizing Boqvist on defense which might be warranted butMerkley doesn’t play any.

    Where does this notion that Boqvist does not play any defence come from??…. he currently gets out-muscled in front of his net and needs to get stronger and improve his defence, yes, but I’ve read that he is commited to the defensive side, albeit not currently his strength.

  164. Hot Eire says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Lucic’s contract is poison.

    Seabrook’s deal is Fugu chopped up by a blind man and marinated in a vat of arsenic and death cap mushrooms.

    So…..if I’m reading the tea leaves right, you are against taking Seabrook for Lucic??

    Btw, I would do the deal with Pitt for Letang and Sprong

  165. stevezie says:

    Hot Eire,

    Sure but why would Pittsburgh? I know he gets paid a lot and is often hurt, but he is right-handed, coming off a 50 point season and was a point a game (!) in the playoffs.

  166. Wilde says:

    Hot Eire: Where does this notion that Boqvist does not play any defence come from??…. he currently gets out-muscled in front of his net and needs to get stronger and improve his defence, yes, but I’ve read that he is commited to the defensive side, albeit not currently his strength.

    He also has a V12 hockey brain that really shines in terms of neutral zone defense.

    So, prospect-stats has come out with an expected goals model, and of course what goes with that is expected shooting percentage.

    http://prospect-stats.com/blog/xG

    For those that don’t want to go through and read the methodology, I’ll give you the (very simple) gist of what goes into the model:

    – shot location and distance from the net

    – the angle at which the shooter is shooting, which gives you an idea of how much net he’s

    – the time since the last shot on goal by the same team (to pick up rebounds and similar bang-bang plays)

    – if the last shot came from the opposing team: the time since that shot was( this helps pick up shots that come off the rush)

    – the league’s average shooting/save percentage

    – the shooter’s position and handedness(a left shot on the right side of the ice has a higher chance of going in, and vice versa)

    As we’ve seen on the Oilers, hockey players can often go /entire seasons/ getting absurdly lucky or unlucky, and since you’re often drafting off of single season’s results, you can end up drafting a 30+ OHL goalscorer that doesn’t actually have strong finishing talent.

    Woodguy’s talked about players consistently outperforming their shot, chance, and expected goals metrics though. These players are often the ones with elite finishing or playmaking ability. But even those players don’t run that far ahead of their xG.

    Luckily, all but one of the OHL forwards that have the biggest difference between their expected shooting percentage and their actual shooting percentage(the guys who got lucky) are guys I’m not interested in.

    The one that is, is Pavel Gogolev.

    He scored 30 goals, most of then 5v5, in a 2nd line role on a shitty Peterborough team, in his 2nd OHL season and his first season with above 10 minutes per game of ice-time.

    This naturally interests me as a guy late on my board. You don’t usually get real goalscoring talent, especially at 6’1″ late in the draft. He’s Russian yeah, but he’s been in NA awhile. He’s under the radar.

    But he scored almost double the goals he was ‘supposed’ to.

    18% shooting percentage, 10% expected shooting percentage.

    Thing is, he’s got by far the highest time on ice of the ‘lucky’ category guys with almost 1100 minutes.

    First round, September birthday(Pavel’s February) prospect Ryan Mcleod is next closest with 940.

    Something’s up with this guy. I’d take him, he’s peculiar. He’s gotta be beating goalies clean, at least to a degree.

    He’s the 79th ranked NA skater by NHL Central Scouting, if he’s still there in the 5th/6th and most of my board’s gone I’d take him.

    I prefer his teammate, Semyon Der-Arguchinstev, but still… Interesting prospect. A Maksimov type bet.

  167. Wilde says:

    stevezie:
    Hot Eire,

    Sure but why would Pittsburgh? I know he gets paid a lot and is often hurt, but he is right-handed, coming off a 50 point season and was a point a game (!) in the playoffs.

    That would be one of the worst trades of all time for Pitt, but to answer the question of why Letang and Sprong are on the market, Sullivan dislikes Sprong and Letang utterly shit the bed against WSH, he was 2-13 in 5v5 GF-GA in that series the last time I checked.

  168. Wilde says:

    Also Jaxon if you read this, I’ve asked you this before, but where do you get your KHL TOI data?

    The KHL site has Kravstov’s regular season TOI/gp at 9:19 last season, and 5:19 the season before that.

  169. Hot Eire says:

    stevezie:
    Hot Eire,

    Sure but why would Pittsburgh? I know he gets paid a lot and is often hurt, but he is right-handed, coming off a 50 point season and was a point a game (!) in the playoffs.

    All true but Rutherford seems to like truculence (see Reeves, Ryan) and after the Washington series (where Letang was ordinary + they could have done with a nuclear deterrent [of which I believe Lucic to be alpha male #1]) + the curious non-playing of Sprong, I still believe there’s a trade there. I would even throw in Matt Benning (who I like) to balance out the trade.

  170. Hot Eire says:

    Wilde: He also has a V12 hockey brain that really shines in terms of neutral zone defense.

    Love this little run-down on two faves of mine from this draft.

    ADAM BOQVIST VS QUINN HUGHES

    I have Hughes and Boqvist as one drop after Dahlin and the other defensemen another drop after them.

    Boqvist just ticks so many boxes for the Oilers. The number of years he will take to be NHL ready (I would say 1 to 3) and the concussions to date are my flags but I would have no hesitation in sprinting to the podium if he was available at 10.

  171. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Sure. If there’s a reasonable deal. It also behooves Chia not to make things worse by trading Looch for the likes of, say, Eriksson.

    Eriksson is a much, much cheaper buyout.

  172. ArmchairGM says:

    Jaxon:
    I have Gruden and Noel as the most underrated forwards (along with Kravtsov). but Gruden is criminally underrated. I also can’t find any negatives in his scouting reports either, except maybe size and I think he’s 5’11.75″, which isn’t exactly small. Great work ethic, decent skating, responsible 2-way play. He has good bloodlines, too (if you put any stock in that), his dad, John Sr., (92 NHL GP with Bruins, Sens and Caps) even played for Chiarelli in his last year in Ottawa and just finished coaching the Hamilton Bulldogs in the Memorial Cup. He outscored Farabee at even strength and played against tougher competition as far as I can tell. I cannot figure that one out, except that he isn’t a flashy player. Weird.

    The highest I’ve seen anyone rank Gruden is #50! Crazy! At least I’ve seen Noel ranked as high as #14.

    Shhhh! I’m hoping we can grab him at 71.

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    When we bet on training intensity we won more often, at the very top of the athlete world, not much separates 2nd from 15th.

    I’d agree with that.

    Doesn’t really apply to the Lucic situation though, which was the topic.

  174. Yeti says:

    Hot Eire: So…..if I’m reading the tea leaves right, you are against taking Seabrook for Lucic??

    Whatever you do, don’t drink that tea.

  175. who says:

    Primetime: LOL…best trade response ever.

    While I agree, the issue is what does Chia think.Friedman says that the Oilers seem very confident that they can trade Lucic without retaining or taking back a bad contract.While that sounds good to us, what we don’t know is what does Chia consider a “bad contract”?Remember there were rumours of Seabrook willing to sign here, the year before he hit UFA.Move one veteran “winner” out for another in a position of need (RHD).

    Of course I wouldn’t do it…but I can picture “Homer” Chiarelli drooling now…”MMMMmmm….Fuuguuuu…..”

    Someone needs to educate me here. I haven’t seen a lot of Chicago lately but I’ve always liked Seabrook. I understand that he has started to slide.
    But at 33 is he still not considerably better at his position than Lucic is at left wing? Not saying I’d do it but is his contract worse than the Lucic contract? I don’t think so.

  176. Lowetide says:

    who: Someone needs to educate me here. I haven’t seen a lot of Chicago lately butI’ve always liked Seabrook. I understand that he has started to slide.
    But at 33 is he still not considerably better at his position than Lucic is at left wing? Not saying I’d do it but is his contract worse than the Lucic contract? I don’t think so.

    Seabrook also has five years left and at $6.875m cap hit. He’s no longer able to play the tough minutes successfully and the old timey phrase “he’s lost a step” is correct but not strong enough.

  177. deardylan says:

    I look at Vegas and they picked up players other teams usually didn’t really really want to keep.

    Buy High and Sell Low
    I look at Oilers and often see us continuously selling players when they are at the low point (Yakupov), getting run out of town (like Eberle after his poor playoff run) and we have so little bargaining power and get very little for them.

    I know it is human when a player is doing well we want to keep them (Lucic play in 1st half of season) and then when they struggle we want to offload them.

    If we are going for a Stanley Cup team. Is there a way we could take out human emotion and sell when they are at the peak of production or just starting to decline. Sell high and buy low.

    Which players are at a peak and will get the biggest amount? Is there any team that is really good at this or will the the GM and management be run out of town for trading with this algorithm?

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    One massive difference between the Lucic and Erickson’s contracts is Lucic’s NMC.

    When he waives it for a trade, per the CBA, the acquiring team has the option to allow the clause to run with the contract or for it to fall away. I’ve got to assume that Lucic will, as a condition of waiving the clause for the initial trade, require the acquiring team to keep the clause which means the acquiring team would have to protect Lucic in the expansion draft.

    Lucic’s requirement for the team to keep the clause is just an assumption but it makes sense to me.

    Yes, Lucic could waive again for the expansion draft but there is no guarantee of that.

    Even if Lucic does agree to waive for the expansion draft, there is a good/decent/great chance that SEA won’t choose him. Him waiving would at least allow the team to not be forced to protect him, however it likely does not dispose of the contract//cap hit.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dreger is floating Lucic and Jesse for Faulk or Hanifin.

    These are silly as Faulk and Hanifin have different values.

    I would NOT do that for Faulk, not way.

    That is interesting for Hanifin, however, it still causes issues with the leftorium, we’d have Klef, Nurse, Hanifin, Russell, Sekera, all as left shot D.

  180. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM: Shhhh! I’m hoping we can grab him at 71.

    If be tempted to go for it at #40. I’ve seen him ranked in the 50-55 range a few times, so I don’t think he lasts to #71. I just finished watching his 17-18 highlight reel and now I even like him more. He makes things happen out there. He’s pretty sneaky and swift.

  181. Hot Eire says:

    Yeti: Whatever you do, don’t drink that tea.

    What have you got against blind men making tea?

  182. Jaxon says:

    Wilde:
    Also Jaxon if you read this, I’ve asked you this before, but where do you get your KHL TOI data?

    The KHL site has Kravstov’s regular season TOI/gp at 9:19 last season, and 5:19 the season before that.

    I thought I answered you. Maybe it was lost in a long winded response. I got my data from Jeremy Davis’ table. Google “Jeremy Davis SEAL Spring rankings NHL draft” and it should come up. He has Kravtsov at ETOI 5.2 (I believe that is 5-on-5), but also has his Estimated 5-on-5 Primary Pts / 60 at 1.97, which is what I used for my stat. Now if he is adjusting that before hand then maybe I’m doubling adjustment and screwing the whole thing up. Even ignoring my stat of Kravtsov. His straight playoff NHLe is 45 pts, which is damn impressive and reinforces that my stat may be on to something. Look, I’m obviously not a statistician, I just came up with a formula made from other people’s formulas, which tried to take into account all the factors I could reasonably account for (age, era, league, position, and TOI) and applied them to the”God’s flashlight” that is 5-on-5 Primary Pts. Is it super accurate? Probably not, but it does give us an equalizer way to measure Crosby, McDavid, and Svechnikov against each other. Or to compare Nurse to K’Andre Miller, or to discover unheralded players like Miller, Gruden, Kravtsov, and Noel. And then look into them further to check for skating and defensive responsibility.

  183. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: Thanks. I appreciate the detailed response.

    I should note, that forwards and D from North American League are completely my own, sourced from prospect-stats.com, whereas players from other leagues are sourced from Jeremy Davis’ Spring Rankings SEAL list. If he has adjusted the Estimated Primary Points/ 60 beforehand then we may be double adjusting some things, which would throw things off.

  184. Jaxon says:

    Munny: The odds of the Avs trading their first pairing Dman for Lucic are somewhere between impossible and never.

    Good point, but I thought they were shopping him at one point. Maybe I’m mixing him up with Jack.

  185. Yeti says:

    Hot Eire: What have you got against blind men making tea?

    Look, Woodguy’s OnIce Tea Making percentages are way down, even when you compensate for quality of competition and his phone playing the offside. Given the opportunities he’s had, his Brew per 60 is flat out weak. Put bluntly: he’s lost a step at an age where he’s unlikely to recover. And that’s before we get into all the off-ice character issues. The rumours about his fondness for fine scotch wrecking his tastebuds are simply too persistent to be ignored…

  186. who says:

    Lowetide: Seabrook also has five years left and at $6.875m cap hit. He’s no longer able to play the tough minutes successfully and the old timey phrase “he’s lost a step” is correct but not strong enough.

    The way I read cap friendly Seabrook has 1 more year of term than Lucic. If the term is equal I’d be very tempted to make the trade cause I feel Seabrook has more value at 6.8 million than Lucic does at 6.

  187. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not trying to be an arse here, but I’m trying to wrap my head around your statement that Kravtsov’s regular season per minute 5-on-5 Primary Pts adjusted for age and league is the best in the draft.

    Here’s what we have for him.

    7 in 35 khl
    7 in 9 VHL
    3 in 1 MHL

    I’m a bit concerned that these numbers are skewed.The numbers don’t look good to me at all. What happens if he only got 6 in 35 in the KHL or 5. And how much weight is placed on the one game in the MHL, which I assume would be comparable to something like AJHL.

    Also, I was only counting his KHL numbers.

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