The desert’s quiet, Cleveland’s cold

Oilers fans have enjoyed a few interesting news items this spring (Cooper Marody, Mikko Koskinen, new coaching staff) but the next three weeks are going to be like watching a raging river run. Peter Chiarelli says he won’t tear it down, but he’s an incredibly aggressive executive. What does keep the powder dry mean to PC? Will he slow play summer? Or find a way to acquire a puck mover who makes over $5 million a year? His signature trades always happen in the back half of June, so we are close to the window opening.

THE ATHLETIC!

Give The Athletic as a gift for Father’s Day and get a free t-shirt! Offer is here, less than $5 a month and your Dad will love a unique gift. I find myself reading both the hockey (Willis, Dellow, Pronman, et cetera) and the baseball coverage a lot, it’s compelling reading and a pure pleasure to visit. I’ll be running draft articles for my contribution to The Athletic now through next weekend, come aboard!

  • New Lowetide: Embracing a two-way mentoring role key for Ryan Strome
  • Lowetide: Oilers coveted righty defenceman could come in Round Two of the draft
  • Tyler Dellow: Milan Lucic’s transition into rush player wiped out much production
  • Lowetide: Shopping Milan Lucic for another problem contract.
  • Tyler Dellow: The value of draft picks and reasonable trades Canadian teams can make
  • Corey Pronman: 2018 NHL draft board.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the USHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Russia: A draft tragedy.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the Republic of Finland
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and Sweden.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the QMJHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018Oilers and the WHL.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers draft history and the OHL
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers and the NCAA.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: The Oilers at the draft: Overagers.
  • Lowetide: Draft 2018: Oilers scouting directors: A history.

PROJECTED ROSTER CURRENTLY

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins [24-24-48]—Connor McDavid [41-67-108]—Ty Rattie [5-4-9]
  • Milan Lucic [10-24-34]—Leon Draisaitl [25-45-70]—Drake Caggiula [13-7-20]
  • Jujhar Khaira [11-10-21]—Ryan Strome [13-21-34]—Jesse Puljujarvi [12-8-20]
  • Pontus Aberg [2-6-8]—Brad Malone [0-0-0]—Zack Kassian [7-12-19]
  • Oscar Klefbom [5-16-21]—Adam Larsson [4-9-13]
  • Andrej Sekera [0-8-8]—Kris Russell [4-17-21]
  • Darnell Nurse [6-20-26]—Matt Benning [6-15-21]
  • Cam Talbot [3.02 .908]—Mikko Koskinen [KHL]

This is the assumed lineup if rosters were frozen. We could put Kailer Yamamoto in a right-wing spot, or project Cooper Marody into the opening night lineup (it’s possible, and Tyler Benson may see NHL time before the end of the season as well). I’ve highlighted the ‘upgrade areas’ in yellow and will admit the Lucic item is new since our last discussion.

I’m a little giddy about these Lucic rumors, but we need to keep a British style stiff upper lip so as not to be disappointed when the trade turns out to be Lucic for a World War Two bomber parked out by Agassiz.

ERIK KARLSSON

Incredibly, it appears he will be moving on this summer, as the Ottawa Senators celebrate ‘hold my beer 2018!’ in the capital. What would you offer? It would depend on a long-term deal being agreed to (sign and trade?) but if the Oilers are serious Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, No. 10 overall, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Jesse Puljujarvi and most other items would be on the table. Insanity we’re even talking about it.

HOCKEY PROSPECT VS. LOWETIDE

This is always a fun list and gives us a different view of the top 10 overall. If Evan Bouchard falls to No. 10, the Oilers will fly to the stage. Jay O’Brien is a fun name, and Kravtsov is emerging as a top 10 option late in the process. It’s one of the reasons I cut off June 1, because you get to see how much changes late in the process (combine, etc).

PROJECTED TOP 10 PICKS, 2018

  1. Buffalo Sabres: Rasmus Dahlin
  2. Carolina Hurricanes: Andrei Svechnikov
  3. Montreal Canadiens: Filip Zadina
  4. Ottawa Senators: Noah Dobson
  5. Arizona Coyotes: Brady Tkachuk
  6. Detroit Red Wings: Oliver Wahlstrom
  7. Vancouver Canucks: Evan Bouchard
  8. Chicago Blackhawks: Quinn Hughes
  9. New York Rangers: Vitali Kravtsov
  10. Edmonton Oilers: Jesperi Kotkaniemi

I can see the draft going just this way, in fact Edmonton may get even more opportunity depending on teams wanting to trade up. It’s a wild draft that gets going when Montreal makes their pick.

REDDIT

I will be doing an “AMA” with the folks at Reddit today at 4pm Edmonton time. The previous time they had me do it was a blast, looking forward to it this afternoon. Question: What does AMA stand for? Perhaps I should have asked before agreeing.

SWEETENER

The Lucic item above (don’t get too excited!) gets a strong push with the words from Darren Dreger this morning on TSN1260. Speaking to Dan Tencer (filling in for Dustin Nielson), Dreger prefaced his quote by saying “I’m not suggesting that this could happen, I’m using this as a scenario, a possibility”:

  • Darren Dreger: Would you be willing in Edmonton to move Milan Lucic, who is still an effective player. Would you be willing to throw in Jesse Puljujarvi to sweeten it if you will, and maybe something else in order to get Noah Hanifan or Justin Faulk. I don’t know if either team would be interested.” (TSN1260)

Dreger did not talk about this as an active rumor, merely as an example (made certain it should be treated as such several times). That said, it frames my concern perfectly. Using “sweeten the deal” implies another half teaspoon of sugar in order to adjust for taste when in actuality you’re trading the entire Tabor Sugar Factory.

And you know what? That trade example fits right in with the ‘trades of June’ deals by Peter Chiarelli:

  • June 26, 2015: Dealt selections No. 16 and No. 33 in the 2015 entry draft for Griffin Reinhart.
  • June 29, 2016: Traded Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson.
  • June 22, 2017: Traded Jordan Eberle for Ryan Strome.

The Dreger trade example above was grabbed from the ether, from fantasy, from the clear blue sky, and yet Oilers fans have to acknowledge the thrust of the deal fits the rhythm of Chiarelli’s three June blockbusters. Peter Chiarelli said he wasn’t going to blow it up, but what does that mean, exactly? We wait.

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207 Responses to "The desert’s quiet, Cleveland’s cold"

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  1. Yeti says:

    Karlsson, eh?
    Does Nurse and #10 get a conversation going? What more would be needed on top?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I switch Pontus Aberg and Drake Caggulia in that lineup and, potentially, Lucic and Khaira (although I give Milan the “benefit of the doubt” and pencil him in at 2LW to start).

    Of course, the team is likely to sign a veteran 4C so that Malone can got the AHL.

    The other potential is some sort of stop gap top 6/middle 6 winger so that Aberg (Caggulia) and Khaira have competition.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I definitely think that he should be in the AHL to start the season but, yes, I definitely have Marody over Malone on my depth chart.

    I don’t consider Malone a real prospect or NHL option. He provides cover and experience at the AHL level in the same way as Keegan Lowe.

    Marody is an interesting prospect as he has a 3C skill-set and, from the stories I’ve read on him, quite the drive.

    I watched him play a few games at Michigan post-trade and was pleasantly surprised at his over-all skill level and his all-situations useage (similar to Rasanen but with more skill). He also was very good (from accounts) in his short stint in the AHL – the best player on the ice in at least one (if not two) of the games (from what I heard, I wasn’t able to watch).

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Karlsson is a wondeful player and it would be amazing to have the best forward (and player) and, arguably, the best d-man on the team.

    I worry, not only about acquisition cost but about:

    1) cap hit – he’s going to be in the $10M to $12M range and he will decline over the term of the contract

    2) injury – not future injury but that his past/existing injuries will permanently hamper his skating

    I don’t see a way to have this player on our team (on a new contract) and to keep Drai – is there?

  5. --hudson-- says:

    AMA: “Ask Me Anything”

    Basically anything is on the table for questioning. The Oilers, NHL, career, things you like, etc.

  6. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    –hudson–:
    AMA: “Ask Me Anything”

    Basically anything is on the table for questioning.The Oilers, NHL, career, things you like, etc.

    Probably a question about ducks too, and not the Anaheim ones.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Although not reflected in this blog, it seems Barrett Hayton is moving up many lists – I’ve seen him as high as 5th – really?

    I know centers are valuable but it would be fantastic if he got chosen in the top 9.

    If we choose him at 10, I’ll be some sort of miffed.

  8. JimmyV1965 says:

    If we could get a signed Erik Karlsson I world offer 10OV, Klef and JP. I would also ask for 22OV added to the deal. I’m sure Vegas could offer even more though and it probably makes sense for the Sens to trade him to the Avs in a package to get that first round pick back next year.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    I worry that the Oilers will take Ty Smith over Boquist and a number of the other d-men, including Bouchard, because he is the “safer pick”.

    I understand he is “safer” than a guy like Boquist but, at the end of the day, Smith himself is no sure thing for the top 4 in the NHL. Many picks around 10 don’t live up to their potential (many due and many surpass).

    There is no sure thing in the range so does it make sense to “play it safe” with Smith as opposed to the higher potential of a Boquist?

  10. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I don’t think a Lucic trade happens for the record: I’m sure they will try hard though. After July 1st he’s a $4.5MM player. Then next July 1st he’s a approx. $4MM player. His contract was always structured to reflect this curve.

    – Been a few days since I put this up: still getting responses, will take answers untill the draft

    – I’ve posted this for the last few years. It’s a diversion for the summer: we all get to be arm-chair GM’s. Contest the off-season elaborate version of Hunters. Winner gets a donation to LT.

    What will the Oilers do (not what should they do, or what you would do!)?:

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive Edmonton off-season FA signing?: bonus if you get multiple right

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12

  11. Connoreah says:

    The Dreger example is interesting if it’s Hanifin.

    Imagine if it were unfolding in a different way…. Carolina offering us Hanifin for Puljujarvi straight up, Chiarelli says no, and then Carolina throwing in the (monumental) sweetener of taking Lucic’s contract off our hands too, to make it work.

    If the Lucic rumours never happened and this scenario unfolded in this way, who here would say no?

  12. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Emmylou’s version of Pancho & Lefty >>>>>>> Willie & Merle’s version and I’ll fist fight anyone who says different.

  13. jtblack says:

    Tom Martin played in the WHL in the 1970’s. He got traded for a USED BUS.

    So Lucic for a World War 2 Bomber seems about right.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Emmylou’s version of Pancho & Lefty >>>>>>> Willie & Merle’s version and I’ll fist fight anyone who says different.

    You are correct.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – I don’t think a Lucic trade happens for the record: I’m sure they will try hard though. After July 1st he’s a $4.5MM player. Then next July 1st he’s a approx. $4MM player. His contract was always structured to reflect this curve.

    The problem if he stays is that while the actual money goes down, the cap hit does not.

    Makes him more moveable to a team with more cap space than actual money to spend, but that doesn’t help if he stays here.

    In terms of Actual $$$ Lucic has been paid $16MM for 90 points over 177 games.

    If they trade him after July 1 (so EDM pays the $3.5MM signing bonus due that day) they will have paid him $19.5MM for 90 points over 177 games. $216K per point. $110K per game.

    I don’t think that’s the curve the expected.

  16. Chris says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Emmylou’s version of Pancho & Lefty >>>>>>> Willie & Merle’s version and I’ll fist fight anyone who says different.

    I’m yer huckleberry. (Couldn’t resist).

  17. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Well well well looks like folks are finally coming around to something that I’ve been predicting for months.

    Better late than never 😉

    Erik Karlsson is the target, Dorion and Chia have discussed it, Klefbom is the centerpiece along with the 10th overall.

    The extension will come during the season, not before. Folks will freak out and I understand but Karlsson is at a personal and family cross-roads and I can’t see him inking anything long-term now that he’s deeply considering leaving Ottawa (a city which he loves).

    We’ll have to enjoy the one year where he makes $7 million and the extension will be a monster but it won’t matter. Offensively Karlsson is the McDavid of defensemen. His numbers are incredible and getting him is a Progeresque level move.

    Any chatter of trying to downplay this move is beyond ridiculous and is so Oilers.

    Karlsson makes Doughty look pedestrian, he’s outscored the perennial favorite of this blog Hedman by 154 points in the same number of games, and is 7 months older.

    It will shake the NHL and instantly turn the Oilers into a force of nature.

    If it comes to pass, buckle up and enjoy the ride.

  18. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    So you’all would beat the crap out of yourself with the Willie and Emmylou version?

    I’m goin’ with the original, Townes Van Zandt, fwiw.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    So you’all would beat the crap out of yourself with the Willie and Emmylou version?

    I’m goin’ with the original, Townes Van Zandt, fwiw.

    The Van Zandt version is sparse and beautiful no doubt.

  20. flea says:

    I wonder if the Oilers could pull off Klefbom & 10 for Karlsson, if Ottawa would then surrender their pick to Colorado. I believe they have right up until the time of the pick to decide.

    It’s a desperate move that fits with the desperate GM. Not sure I love the move, but with the cap going up next year maybe adding a $10M d man would be attainable.

  21. Ben says:

    JEEEEBUS will they ever stop treating “freed up cap space” like an asset?

    Hall for Larsson is a loss on paper, but it frees up space to sign Looch!

    Eberle for Strome is a loss on paper, but it frees up space to sign…nobody!

    Pul and Looch for Faulk is a loss on paper, but it frees up the space you already freed up when you lost the Hall trade!

    Just stick to the paper, Pedro.

  22. flyfish1168 says:

    When your team has sucked for so long the rumours become more unrealistic in evaluating players. I just don’t see how dregars rumour makes sense. JP is a year younger than Hanifan. I get it that maybe Hanifan is valued more than JP due to being a Dman. But we have enough LHD in the system I would not value another team LHD prospect as a great need. Let alone giving up JP as a sweetener. For Faulk, he has been sliding for 3 years so no chance for a recovery. He needs a change of scenery period. Milan comes as advertised and only one bad year. Milan has a better chance to recover, I think he didn’t realize how difficult it is to play for a Canadian city. JP is too great a sweetener to give up for Faulk. Straight up with future considerations ( 2 or 3 round pick 2020). This is what I would do. JMHO

  23. LoDog says:

    flyfish1168,

    Might make more sense if klefbom is gone.

    Out klefbom the tenth, Lucic and JP.

    In Karlsson and hannifin.

  24. franksterra says:

    Melvis,

    seconded

    whole live album is great
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uM9I-SF6Qk

    Saw him at Myer Horowitz around…’87? ’88? Opening for Cowboy Junkies, who I adored at the time. Had never heard of TVZ, so got there a bit late. Thankfully not too late. I arrived in the lobby to show my ticket and heard the guitar and voice drifting out of the theatre. I ran inside. Maybe not fair to the Junkies, but they seemed like pretenders after an hour of Townes.

  25. Lexx says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1 Brady Tkachuk
    2 7 years, 4.25m
    3 2 years, 1.85m
    4 4 year, 2.75m
    5 No
    6 No
    7 Leon Draisaitl
    8 Leon Draisaitl
    9 Cooper Marody
    10 Sekera, David Savard
    11 3 Trades, 1) 40th OA (2nd rd) & Jones for David Savard (CBJ). 2) Sekera for Andrew Shaw (MTL). C) Kassian for a 4th Rd Pick
    12 Miko Koskinen 2.5m / Derek Ryan 1.5m / Ryan Sproul .8m

  26. PennersPancakes says:

    Ben: JEEEEBUS will they ever stop treating “freed up cap space” like an asset?

    Probably never because for a cap team in a cap world it is and always will be an asset? If the GM doesn’t do anything with the space or does something completely wasteful with it that is something else and a different discussion.

    Say the oilers were trading for 2 completely identical 60 point wingers from different teams. If theyre both signed for 3 years at 4 million and 6 million respectively, obviously the lower cap hit player will be more valuable and coveted. Just because Chia has messed this idea/similar scenarios up doesn’t mean it isn’t valid.

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – I don’t think a Lucic trade happens for the record: I’m sure they will try hard though. After July 1st he’s a $4.5MM player. Then next July 1st he’s a approx. $4MM player. His contract was always structured to reflect this curve.

    The problem if he stays is that while the actual money goes down, the cap hit does not.

    Makes him more moveable to a team with more cap space than actual money to spend, but that doesn’t help if he stays here.

    In terms of Actual $$$ Lucic has been paid $16MM for 90 points over 177 games.

    If they trade him after July 1 (so EDM pays the $3.5MM signing bonus due that day) they will have paid him $19.5MM for 90 points over 177 games. $216K per point. $110K per game.

    I don’t think that’s the curve the expected.

    – Don’t think that Lucic will finish out his contract with Edmonton, nor do I think the Oil or Lucic thought so either: hence the contract structure

    – So if the plan was to get his “optimal years”, then trade him to a team that needs cap, and $MMish aging winger later, and last year disappointed, it’s going to be pretty costly to get rid of him.

    – Stick with the plan, assume he will get back some, then you have expansion/lock-out/deadline trades/post July 1st next year as multiple exits

    – Last year 2nd half makes the whole thing a problem: what can the Oil (or any team) project for Lucic next few years?

  28. JustWatt says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    This is exactly right. Even though Edmonton would have to go cheap forever on its wingers and remaining D-corp Karlsson -> 97 or 29 for 8 years would be the most electrifying offense in the league for years. Solve the goaltender and the sky is the limit. And if he doesn’t come pre-signed I can’t imagine Ottawa getting a much better offer than 10OV and Klef and some other knick-knacks thrown in to make it a “5-for-1!” headline that the Sens can sell to their fanbase. Trade Lucic for max cap space savings and even a $10 million/year contract could probably fit beyond 2019. If this can be done, it should be done.

  29. Darth Tu says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    1) Who will be the first drafted player by the Oil this year?
    2) Length and AAV of Nurse’s contract (or traded?)?
    3) Length and AAV of Benning’s contract (or traded)?
    4) Length and AAV of Strome’s contract (or traded)?
    5) Do any of Marody, Benson, Bear or other non-roster org players make the team for game 1?
    6) Will another senoir Hockey management type come in? Bonus Who?
    7) Who will be Lucic’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    8) Who will be Jesse’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    9) Who will be Kailer’s C when puck drops for game 1?
    10) Who of Klef, Larsson, Nurse, Russel, Benning, Sek aren’t on opening day roster: replacements?
    11) How many hockey trades does Chia make: bonus is one is named?
    12) Who is the most expensive Edmonton off-season FA signing?: bonus if you get multiple right

    Please answer in the the following format so I can cut and past easy:

    1 Ty Smith (after trading down a few slots)
    2 2 x $3 million
    3 2 x $1.6 million
    4 3 x $2.75 million
    5 None of them
    6 No one new
    7 Kempe at LA
    8 Drai
    9 Marody in the AHL
    10 All of them on the roster
    11 1: Lucic and 2019 2nd round to LA for Rieder and a bag of pucks
    12 Vanek – 2 x $2.5 million, Deryk Ryan – 1 x $1.5 million

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    So you’all would beat the crap out of yourself with the Willie and Emmylou version?

    I’m goin’ with the original, Townes Van Zandt, fwiw.

    It wouldn’t be the first time that I was my own worst enemy.

    Agreed that Van Zandt’s is haunting, but there’s something about Emmylou’s voice that makes you think everything will turn out ok by the end of song and when it doesn’t the sorrow is somehow worse

  31. JustWatt says:

    flyfish1168,

    I could definitely live with this deal. I’d explore the idea of Hanifin and Skinner for JP and Looch too if Hanifin can actually be had. Seems more likely than getting Karlsson.

  32. Alpine says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I worry that the Oilers will take Ty Smith over Boquist and a number of the other d-men, including Bouchard, because he is the “safer pick”.

    I understand he is “safer” than a guy like Boquist but, at the end of the day, Smith himself is no sure thing for the top 4 in the NHL. Many picks around 10 don’t live up to their potential (many due and many surpass).

    There is no sure thing in the range so does it make sense to “play it safe” with Smith as opposed to the higher potential of a Boquist?

    I’ve seen similar talk before of picking Smith ‘over’ Bouchard, Boqvist etc., and how it’s a mistake. But odds are we won’t be picking him ‘over’ them because they’ll be already be selected. The difference between picking Smith over say, Kotkaniemi could be the Oilers not trusting Finns as much as they used to after watching Jesse have his own struggles. Slightly unreasonable, but at the same time WHL Dmen who post great draft year numbers usually turn out well.

  33. Melvis says:

    franksterra,

    Yeah. It looks good on paper but It’s a double billing a promoter might want to avoid.

  34. jake70 says:

    LT, in my workworld, AMA means against medical advice …..lol…….be careful.

  35. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Emmylou is a hard road. Then there’s the swoon factor.

  36. Melvis says:

    The Saudi D looks awfully suspect to me.

  37. Alpine says:

    Melvis:
    The Saudi D looks awfully suspect to me.

    They might the worst team in the whole thing. Asia’s probably the easiest qualifying to get out of and they’re the worst of the AFC teams who made it.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    I think signing the Lucic contract was done against medical advice

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yost finds a “strange” twitter account in regards to the Sens: https://yosttravis.tumblr.com/post/174886789841/a-strange-twitter-account/amp?__twitter_impression=true

  40. knighttown says:

    Carolina is the one team that has too many Top 4 defensemen in that they could trade one out and get nothing in return. Dundon has also talked about getting tougher. If they are the team and Jesse is the chip, I try to wrestle Jaccob Slavin out of there and convince them that a Hanifan led core fits better age wise with their nucleus of Svech and Jesse.

    I simply adore him.

    #10 OV + Jesse + Lucic for Slavin and Skinner

    I’d then look at a Klefbom for Pacioretty trade +/- assets

    The dollars aren’t far off…

    Nuge- McDavid- Rattie
    Skinner- Drai- Pacioretty
    Aberg- Strome- Vanek
    Caggs- Khaira- Kassian

    Slavin- Larsson
    Nurse- Benning
    Sekera- Russell

  41. Chris says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Yost finds a “strange” twitter account in regards to the Sens: https://yosttravis.tumblr.com/post/174886789841/a-strange-twitter-account/amp?__twitter_impression=true

    After reading that, call me sceptical. I’d bet dollars to donuts that the Twitter account belongs to someone in-house.

  42. knighttown says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Yost finds a “strange” twitter account in regards to the Sens: https://yosttravis.tumblr.com/post/174886789841/a-strange-twitter-account/amp?__twitter_impression=true

    Anyone know the last two digits of Tanya Doiron’s cell phone number?

  43. rickithebear says:

    Jaxon:
    My prospect list are referenced vs the avg rates of NHL fwds
    Broken down to top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30 and upper, Lower #2 to #9 fwds.
    #2 Svechnikov 10; Top 10 fwd
    #10 Wahlstrom 12.5; Top 20 fwd
    ————————————
    #3 Zadina 40; Upr #2 fwd
    #15 Noel 50; Lwr #2 fwd
    #64 Dundas 56.5; Lwr #2fwd
    #71 Gruden 60; Lwr #2 fwd
    —————————————
    #11 Farabee 67.5; upr #3 fwd
    #82 Ranta 75; Upr #3 fwd
    #42 wise 86.5 Lwr #3 fwd
    #87 zavgorody 87.5 Lwr #3 fwd
    ——————————————+
    #18 Dellandrea 97.5 Upr #4 fwd
    #88 Fonstad 98; Upr #4 fwd
    #46 HIllis 105; Upr #4 fwd
    #7 Hayton 112 Lwr #4 fwd
    #100 Jenkins 116; Lwr #4 fwd
    #40 Foudy 120; Lwr #4 fwd
    #17 Thomas 120; Lwr #4 fwd
    ——————————————
    #57 Mcshane 131.5: Upr #5 fwd
    #53 Groulx 131.5; Upr #5 fwd
    #35 McLaughlin 131.5; Upr #5 fwd
    #78 Prakrit 146 Lwr #5 fwd
    #28;Velano 146 Lwr #5 fwd
    #87 Burzan 150; Lwr #5 fwd
    #56 Khovanov 150; Lwr #5 Fwd
    ——————————————-
    #60 Fortier 154; Upr #6 fwd
    #29 McLeod 157 Upr #6 fwd

    Much better frame of reference for potential top 6 forwards.
    With draft revisits showing age/lg nhle being the best draft pick tool.

  44. Gret99zky says:

    AMA:

    “Why won’t you use Led Zeppelin for a RE series?”

    “Should my family invest in a Camping Box?”

  45. digger50 says:

    knighttown:
    Carolina is the one team that has too many Top 4 defensemen in that they could trade one out and get nothing in return.Dundon has also talked about getting tougher.If they are the team and Jesse is the chip, I try to wrestle Jaccob Slavin out of there and convince them that a Hanifan led core fits better age wise with their nucleus of Svech and Jesse.

    I simply adore him.

    #10 OV + Jesse + Lucic for Slavin and Skinner

    I’d then look at a Klefbom for Pacioretty trade +/- assets

    The dollars aren’t far off…

    Nuge- McDavid- Rattie
    Skinner- Drai- Pacioretty
    Aberg- Strome- Vanek
    Caggs- Khaira- Kassian

    Slavin- Larsson
    Nurse- Benning
    Sekera- Russell

    Some good creative trades there, much improving the line up as it should be. Veterans supporting youth

    Lt, great reminder on the line up as it stands today. Take out Milan and we are in a pretty deep hole.

    Oil have telegraphed Ty Smith, Looch trade and RHD. I doubt they get creative with anything more.

    My guess on Looch, is salary retained and prospect back. I guessed Virtanen

    Clears up a little money and then we need wingers pronto.

  46. Ribs says:

    Hey, remember that time when Lucic hit 374 posts in his last 20 games as an Oiler? Hah, good stuff.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    AMA:

    “Why won’t you use Led Zeppelin for a RE series?”

    “Should my family invest in a Camping Box?”

    Haha. The last one was a blast.

  48. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I switch Pontus Aberg and Drake Caggulia in that lineup and, potentially, Lucic and Khaira (although I give Milan the “benefit of the doubt” and pencil him in at 2LW to start).

    Of course, the team is likely to sign a veteran 4C so that Malone can got the AHL.

    The other potential is some sort of stop gap top 6/middle 6 winger so that Aberg (Caggulia) and Khaira have competition.

    Aberg, Caggulia, and Khaira are not top six prospects. The Oilers must find a way to add a top six winger in order for Draisitle to succeed at the level he is being paid at.

  49. N64 says:

    If Chia wasn’t always in a hurry he’d have a LW to trade for an extended Karlsson.

  50. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I worry that the Oilers will take Ty Smith over Boquist and a number of the other d-men, including Bouchard, because he is the “safer pick”.

    I understand he is “safer” than a guy like Boquist but, at the end of the day, Smith himself is no sure thing for the top 4 in the NHL. Many picks around 10 don’t live up to their potential (many due and many surpass).

    There is no sure thing in the range so does it make sense to “play it safe” with Smith as opposed to the higher potential of a Boquist?

    History shows that picking d-men is a higher risk than forwards. The maturation time for a d-man also takes one or two more years. Unless it’s a sure fire r-dman, l would hope they go with a forward.

  51. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Better an AMA than a ATM!
    🙂

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Gret99zky:
    AMA:

    “Why won’t you use Led Zeppelin for a RE series?”

    “Should my family invest in a Camping Box?”

    Camping box FTW!!

  53. jake70 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think signing the Lucic contract was done against medical advice

    Being a fan sometimes is AMA.

  54. --hudson-- says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Camping box FTW!!

    For those who don’t get the reference: http://lowetide.ca/2013/09/05/penticton/

    Amazing story!

  55. bsmart says:

    LT,

    Thanks to your last item of your post LT, I have developed acid reflux for the first time !

    —————————————

    And you know what? That trade example fits right in with the ‘trades of June’ deals by Peter Chiarelli:
    •June 26, 2015: Dealt selections No. 16 and No. 33 in the 2015 entry draft for Griffin Reinhart.
    •June 29, 2016: Traded Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson.
    •June 22, 2017: Traded Jordan Eberle for Ryan Strome.

  56. Jaxon says:

    Oilman99: http://lowetide.ca/2013/09/05/penticton/

    The other side of that argument is that it is almost impossible to trade for offensive #1D, and you have to pay through the nose on the trade market and in free agency. The best way to stock your top D is through the draft and #1 D usually go in the 1st half of the first round although sometimes teams luck out further down. You can usually get quality forwards in other ways, or at least slightly easier or less expensive in assets or money. Edmonton has needed a top pair RHD since at least 2012, maybe sooner. But they’ve rarely ever addressed the issue at the draft save for 2015 and 2016 in later rounds (Paigin #209, Berglund #91, Bear #124). they still need a top RHD and if they don’t do it through the draft then they’ll have to pay through the nose and that isn’t pretty with Chiarelli at the helm. Bouchard, Dobson, Boqvist, Merkley, Addison, Wilde, Woo are what they need.

  57. Death By Misadventure says:

    Does anyone have reference to the pick value charts?

    Crazy idea but if the Oilers want to kick the prospect pool up a few notches would this be acceptable…

    To Detroit : #10 and #71

    To Edmonton: #30, #33, #36

    Detroit now has #6 and #10 picks – their prospect pool needs quality.

    Edmonton now has #30, #33, #36 and #40 in what’s considered a Top 40 draft — their prospect pool needs depth to complement the quality at the NHL level.

    If you trust Keith Gretzky to identify value this might be a solid move for the Oilers.

    This might not be a high end draft, but there is a lot of intriguing talent (at least) on paper in the top 40.

  58. dustrock says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    Does anyone have reference to the pick value charts?

    Crazy idea but if the Oilers want to kick the prospect pool up a few notches would this be acceptable…

    To Detroit : #10 and #71

    To Edmonton: #30, #33, #36

    Detroit now has #6 and #10 picks – their prospect pool needs quality.

    Edmonton now has #30, #33, #36 and #40 in what’s considered a Top 40 draft — their prospect pool needs depth to complement the quality at the NHL level.

    If you trust Keith Gretzky to identify value this might be a solid move for the Oilers.

    This might not be a high end draft, but there is a lot of intriguing talent (at least) on paper in the top 40.

    Tyler Dellow mentioned this in his article on The Athletic last week.

    I floated this on twitter. Most people thought it was in the range but an overpay.

    Blue Bullet Brad said the appropriate trade value for 30, 33 and 36 is probably 12 & 72.

    He thinks #10 alone for 30, 33 and 36 is a bit of an overpay.

    This is an interesting draft where you can argue there’s not a huge deal of separation between #15-45 and I can see it helping the Oilers restock their prospect cupboards if they have 30, 33, 36 and 40.

  59. bendelson says:

    –hudson–: For those who don’t get the reference: http://lowetide.ca/2013/09/05/penticton/

    Amazing story!

    That classic LT story never gets old…
    So good.

  60. Primetime says:

    dustrock:
    This is an interesting draft where you can argue there’s not a huge deal of separation between #15-45 and I can see it helping the Oilers restock their prospect cupboards if they have 30, 33, 36 and 40.

    I actually don’t think this is a bad idea, and I may be in the minority, but trust that Gretzky could find some good talent with those picks and really fill the Oiler cupboard.

    The downside argument:

    1) This will HOPEFULLY be the last time in many McDavid years that we draft anywhere near the top 10 so we should take full advantage

    2) If we did this, we run the risk of repeating the Parise/MAP draft. Except this time, we would have to hear about any player that hits big between 10-30 for decades to come on this and other Oiler blogs…

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock: Tyler Dellow mentioned this in his article on The Athletic last week.

    I floated this on twitter.Most people thought it was in the range but an overpay.

    Blue Bullet Brad said the appropriate trade value for 30, 33 and 36 is probably 12 & 72.

    He thinks #10 alone for 30, 33 and 36 is a bit of an overpay.

    This is an interesting draft where you can argue there’s not a huge deal of separation between #15-45 and I can see it helping the Oilers restock their prospect cupboards if they have 30, 33, 36 and 40.

    I think 10 alone is worth more than 14+19 combined. It sure as hell is worth more than the package you’re suggesting.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    If we could get a signed Erik Karlsson I world offer 10OV, Klef and JP.I would also ask for 22OV added to the deal. I’m sure Vegas could offer even more though and it probably makes sense for the Sens to trade him to the Avs in a package to get that first round pick back next year.

    With the $$$ out, we would be able to afford the last year of his current contract but we’d need to open up about $6M of additional room for the following season…..

    I really worry about Karlsson never been 100% healthy again with his past/current “lower body injuries”.

  63. Moose says:

    There’s an interview with Bob Green up on the Oilers site today, with a question relating back to Oilers taking Yamamoto out to dinner last year and then picking him. Green referenced that they took 4 players out this year and would happy to get any of the 4. We know one was Ty Smith, any intel from anyone on who the other 3 were?

  64. Alpine says:

    No guarantees here but I’d rather have a great shot at a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman than three okay shots at a third line forward/ fringe top four defensemen. There’s little distance between 30 and 40 anyways while there’s a big gap from 10 to 30 in quality.

    Depth is nice and all but if they players don’t have high enough potential we’re back in 2011 where we have ‘depth’ but the depth is Pitlick, Lander, Hamilton, Musil etc.

  65. ArmchairGM says:

    Moose:
    There’s an interview with Bob Green up on the Oilers site today, with a question relating back to Oilers taking Yamamoto out to dinner last year and then picking him. Green referenced that they took 4 players out this year and would happy to get any of the 4. We know one was Ty Smith, any intel from anyone on who the other 3 were?

    I think Kotkaniemi was one, somebody could confirm.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Aberg, Caggulia, and Khaira are not top six prospects. The Oilers must find a way to add a top six winger in order for Draisitle to succeed at the level he is being paid at.

    While I agree with Drai needing better wingers, there simply isn’t any money to commit to established top 6 wingers – a Lucic trade could change that.

    What Drai did last year as a center with the boat anchors he generally had to carry around, was sensational. He is value for that contract already in my mind.

    I agree that Caggulia isn’t a top 6 prospect, hence why I moved him down to the fourth line and moved up Aberg.

    You are likely right on Aberg but his 1.47 P/60 and 1.08 P1/60 as an Oiler intrigue me and, with the current roster, he’s a better option than Drake in the top or middle 6.

    A year ago I would have agreed on Khaira (and I don’t necessarily disagree right now), however, he showed more puck skills and finish last year than I ever though he had. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Khaira/Drai/JP line and see what they can do.

    Again, I’m just talking about current assets and how I think they could/should line up.

  67. Death By Misadventure says:

    dustrock,

    Thanks for that Dustrock. I think I would do that trade. 4 bullets in the top 40 seem too intriguing to pass up.

  68. dustrock says:

    Moose:
    There’s an interview with Bob Green up on the Oilers site today, with a question relating back to Oilers taking Yamamoto out to dinner last year and then picking him. Green referenced that they took 4 players out this year and would happy to get any of the 4. We know one was Ty Smith, any intel from anyone on who the other 3 were?

    I believe we only have confirmation on Smith and Kotkaniemi.

    Bouchard and Wahlstrom?

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers have re-signed Caggulia for 2 years.

    Don’t know what the AAV is yet but I really hope its $1.25M and would be not happy if its higher than $1.5M

  70. Lowetide says:

    Oilers signed Caggiula. Two years, less with good behaviour.

  71. Death By Misadventure says:

    Primetime: I actually don’t think this is a bad idea, and I may be in the minority, but trust that Gretzky could find some good talent with those picks and really fill the Oiler cupboard.

    The downside argument:

    1) This will HOPEFULLY be the last time in many McDavid years that we draft anywhere near the top 10 so we should take full advantage

    2) If we did this, we run the risk of repeating the Parise/MAP draft.Except this time, we would have to hear about any player that hits big between 10-30 for decades to come on this and other Oiler blogs…

    I hear you on point #2 and will caveat by saying Im for the trade with Detroit if the Keith Gretzky choice(s) for #10 are off the board. If Dahlin falls to #10, I would hang up on Kenny Holland 🙂

  72. Death By Misadventure says:

    Alpine:
    No guarantees here but I’d rather have a great shot at a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman than three okay shots at a third line forward/ fringe top four defensemen. There’s little distance between 30 and 40 anyways while there’s a big gap from 10 to 30 in quality.

    Depth is nice and all but if they players don’t have high enough potential we’re back in 2011 where we have ‘depth’ but the depth is Pitlick, Lander, Hamilton, Musil etc.

    I know it’s early but I don’t think Keith Grealtzky’s draft philosophy is anything like MBS and Tambolline’s.

    Also I don’t think in this year’s draft there is as large of a gap between 10-30. My understanding is that it’s a fairly flat draft talent wise with no real guarantees beyond Dahlin and Svech.

    With that in mind, I would rather take 4 swings than 1.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Moose:
    There’s an interview with Bob Green up on the Oilers site today, with a question relating back to Oilers taking Yamamoto out to dinner last year and then picking him. Green referenced that they took 4 players out this year and would happy to get any of the 4. We know one was Ty Smith, any intel from anyone on who the other 3 were?

    I know that took Kotkaniemi out for dinner.

    Stauffer has mentioned they have interest in Karvtsov but I don’t know if they took him out for dinner.

  74. ashley says:

    Karlsson is a bad idea. It’s Ryan Whitney all over again, but the acquisition price will be far more dear. It’s a very risky bet.

    Karlsson was lucky to get to 80% of his pre surgery level of speed and agility. The natural history of this condition in a high performance athlete is continued and increasing pain, more limited mobility and range of motion, and ultimately more surgeries and eventually early retirement.

    There is also the man’s life to consider. I assume he would still like to walk in his 60’s and 70’s without too much disability. It’s best to delay the handicap parking placard as long as possible in life. Though that’s his call, not the industry’s.

    I can understand why OTT wants to move him. I sure hope the Oilers do their homework this time.

  75. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oilers have re-signed Caggulia for 2 years.

    Don’t know what the AAV is yet but I really hope its $1.25M and would be not happy if its higher than $1.5M

    Hope it’s less, and a two-way deal. Usually players in his spot after underwhelming season give up money for term.

  76. Munny says:

    If space could be made (Lucic et alii), who would you prefer to add to the team…

    Kessel or Karlsson?

  77. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Svechnikov and Wahlstrom are my top 2 forwards as well. Hope someone picks Hayton so hes off the board by the time he gets to us. Curious whats the formula for this calculation?
    What formula do you use for defensemen?
    Dahlen and Hughes are my top 2 d

  78. Ribs says:

    Moose:
    There’s an interview with Bob Green up on the Oilers site today, with a question relating back to Oilers taking Yamamoto out to dinner last year and then picking him. Green referenced that they took 4 players out this year and would happy to get any of the 4. We know one was Ty Smith, any intel from anyone on who the other 3 were?

    Here’s something sort of interesting about Detroit and how many dinners they were having (or were planning to have during the combine…

    https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nhl/red-wings/2018/06/02/red-wings-draft-possibilities-steak-dinner-combine/666150002/

    They interviewed 80 players during the combine, and the 20 who received dinner invitations are the ones the Wings expect to be available over the four selections they have between sixth and 36th (Detroit’s first-round pick, Vegas’ first-round pick, Ottawa’s second-round pick and Detroit’s second-round pick).

  79. leadfarmer says:

    ashley,

    Karlsson acquisition costs. Future contract cost puts him out of our reach. Most elite players are elite for a long time but his ankle surgery will probably limit the later part of his career

  80. Alpine says:

    Death By Misadventure: I know it’s early but I don’t think Keith Grealtzky’s draft philosophy is anything like MBS and Tambolline’s.

    Also I don’t think in this year’s draft there is as large of a gap between 10-30. My understanding is that it’s a fairly flat draft talent wise with no real guarantees beyond Dahlin and Svech.

    With that in mind, I would rather take 4 swings than 1.

    I definitely think there is a gap between Kotkaniemi or whatever forward you could get late in the first. Ditto for Smith and Dmen.

    Gretzkys done well but he isn’t a drafting savant. We’re three years removed from him picking Zboril and Senyshen ahead of some great young players. Stu and Tambellini never quite messed up that bad in the first round.

    If he’s that good anyways why wouldn’t you want him to pick higher where there’s a higher chance of getting a great player?

    I just don’t think it’s ever a good idea for a team to trade down that far. I personally don’t love too many of the guys ranked late first/early second and we already have the 40th pick to worry about sorting through those players when it comes up.

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    Oilers signed Caggiula. Two years, less with good behaviour.

    ZING!!

  82. Jordan says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    Does anyone have reference to the pick value charts?

    Crazy idea but if the Oilers want to kick the prospect pool up a few notches would this be acceptable…

    To Detroit : #10 and #71

    To Edmonton: #30, #33, #36

    Detroit now has #6 and #10 picks – their prospect pool needs quality.

    Edmonton now has #30, #33, #36 and #40 in what’s considered a Top 40 draft — their prospect pool needs depth to complement the quality at the NHL level.

    If you trust Keith Gretzky to identify value this might be a solid move for the Oilers.

    This might not be a high end draft, but there is a lot of intriguing talent (at least) on paper in the top 40.

    I’m terrified of this.

    Not because it’s poor value.

    Not because of Gretzky’s record.

    Just because that gives the Oilers ALMOST 4 picks in the second round.

    The Oilers don’t historically draft well in the second round.

    ITS THE OILERS DRAFTING KRYPTONITE!

    I’d be much more in favour of doing this with the 40th pick and taking 3 more 3rd round picks.

    JMO

  83. --hudson-- says:

    OriginalPouzar: I know that took Kotkaniemi out for dinner.

    Stauffer has mentioned they have interest in Karvtsov but I don’t know if they took him out for dinner.

    It seems the best source for finding out the dinner option is the Oilers youtube channel, specifically the combine interviews done by Bob Stauffer. He knew both Kotkaniemi and Ty Smith were taken out. Jack Michaels didn’t ask his interviewees.

    One other tidbit that might not mean anything – Tkachuk’s first interview of the combine was with the Oilers. We don’t know who the Oilers first interviewee was. Without knowing how the scheduling works at the combine I wouldn’t conclude anything by it but interesting nonetheless.

    From the Keith Gretzky interview they did 17 interviews per day, the dinner is to get to know the players in an informal setting.

  84. RonnieB says:

    Does anybody else find it astonishing that, based on the chart in this article, Hockey Prospects doesn’t have Joe Valeno anywhere in the 1st round ?
    I would have thought that the Oilers choice at #10 would be between Valeno, Kotkaniemi and Farabee, with Bovquist (2 concussions by age 17, size, etc,), Smith ( size, handedness, poor performances on the bigger stages, etc), and others would be a bit of a reach. ( I’m assuming that Dobson, Bouchard, Quinn, Wahlstrom, – any of which i would take ahead of the others i named – will be gone before #10. )

  85. LadiesloveSmid says:

    If Smith had a killer U18s would he be talked about more like Dobson/Bouchard/Hughes?

  86. RonnieB says:

    For those above that are speculating about acquiring Faulk,,,it has been reported by several sources, including writers in both cities, that the Canes and Hawks are discussing a 1 for 1 Faulk for Saad trade. and the Canes are trying to hold out for more.

  87. Alpine says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    If Smith had a killer U18s would he be talked about more like Dobson/Bouchard/Hughes?

    Yup. Dobson wasn’t talked about the way he is now until the Mem Cup. It was rare to see him ranked higher than 10.

  88. Jordan says:

    RonnieB:
    For those above that are speculating about acquiring Faulk,,,it has been reported by several sources, including writers in both cities, that the Canes and Hawks are discussing a 1 for 1 Faulk for Saad trade. and the Canes are trying to hold out for more.

    I suspect that considering their terrible jobs protecting the HD Box, having both Seabrook and Faulk on the same team might have Ricki saying that would be un’bear’able.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJxCdh1Ps48

  89. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Alpine: Yup. Dobson wasn’t talked about the way he is now until the Mem Cup. It was rare to see him ranked higher than 10.

    hard to put a lot of stock into short tournaments. Maybe that bodes well for oil taking him at #10.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    ashley:
    Karlsson is a bad idea.It’s Ryan Whitney all over again, but the acquisition price will be far more dear.It’s a very risky bet.

    Karlsson was lucky to get to 80% of his pre surgery level of speed and agility.The natural history of this condition in a high performance athlete is continued and increasing pain, more limited mobility and range of motion, and ultimately more surgeries and eventually early retirement.

    There is also the man’s life to consider.I assume he would still like to walk in his 60’s and 70’s without too much disability.It’s best to delay the handicap parking placard as long as possible in life.Though that’s his call, not the industry’s.

    I can understand why OTT wants to move him.I sure hope the Oilers do their homework this time.

    That’s quite a bit more detail than I had but, even without that detail, as I’ve expressed, I’d be very concerned about his injury and healthy.

  91. LadiesloveSmid says:

    RonnieB:
    For those above that are speculating about acquiring Faulk,,,it has been reported by several sources, including writers in both cities, that the Canes and Hawks are discussing a 1 for 1 Faulk for Saad trade. and the Canes are trying to hold out for more.

    I don’t think CAR moves any of the D I’d want out of there (Slavvin, Pesce, TVR). I’d be interested in a ton of their forwards.

  92. RonnieB says:

    Jordan: having both Seabrook and Faulk on the same team might have Ricki saying that would be un’bear’able.

    Kudos !

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99: Hope it’s less, and a two-way deal. Usually players in his spot after underwhelming season give up money for term.

    I would be absolutely shocked if it wasn’t a one-way deal – for all his warts, which he has many, he scored 13 goals last year and the organization sees him as an NHL player.

    As an aside, I can’t think of a reason why you’d care if its a one-way vs. a two-way – it is meaningless in every way except for the paycheque the player receives if in the minors. It has zero effect on the cap, waiver eligibility, etc.

    The only people that should care about that are Drake, his agent and Katz.

  94. RonnieB says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I don’t think CAR moves any of the D I’d want out of there (Slavvin, Pesce, TVR). I’d be interested in a ton of their forwards.

    Absolutely. With the Canes looking for toughness, i wonder if Kassian would get us 1 of their skilled youngsters such as Foegele or Zykov.

  95. Primetime says:

    Jordan: I suspect that considering their terrible jobs protecting the HD Box, having both Seabrook and Faulk on the same team might have Ricki saying that would be un’bear’able.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJxCdh1Ps48

    No problem…they will be ok after trading Seabrook for Lucic…MORE FUGU!!!!

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine: Yup. Dobson wasn’t talked about the way he is now until the Mem Cup. It was rare to see him ranked higher than 10.

    Not that Dobson isn’t a great prospect, I think there is some recency bias going on with him (and Hughes).

    If I’m not mistaken, 8 weeks ago, he was ranked below each of Hughes, Bouchard and Boquist on the majority of lists and I often saw Boquist at the front.

    His play in the Q playoffs and, in particular, in the Memorial Cup have definitely raised his stock – with that said, upping your game and playing great in the biggest games does have meaning and does warrant consideration.

  97. LadiesloveSmid says:

    RonnieB: Absolutely.With the Canes looking for toughness, i wonder if Kassian would get us 1 of their skilled youngsters such as Foegele or Zykov.

    Maybe the hockey trade Chiarelli is looking for will send out Lucic+an asset and bring in Saad, with Faulk ending up in Chicago. Saad a fantastic player coming off an uncharacteristically garbage season.

  98. dustrock says:

    You know, I watched Smith at the U-18s and what I noticed is that he almost always made the smart play or the safe play.

    Either he was tentative, or he was specifically coached to be that way.

    I saw him make a number of pretty great defensive reads and transition moves.

    It wasn’t the sexiest performance and by no means did he “dominate” (neither did Merkley, for that matter), but to say that he had a poor U-18 was a little unfair to him.

  99. texmex says:

    1.5 x 2 for caggs per rishaug

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ashley:
    Karlsson is a bad idea.It’s Ryan Whitney all over again, but the acquisition price will be far more dear.It’s a very risky bet.

    Karlsson was lucky to get to 80% of his pre surgery level of speed and agility.The natural history of this condition in a high performance athlete is continued and increasing pain, more limited mobility and range of motion, and ultimately more surgeries and eventually early retirement.

    There is also the man’s life to consider.I assume he would still like to walk in his 60’s and 70’s without too much disability.It’s best to delay the handicap parking placard as long as possible in life.Though that’s his call, not the industry’s.

    I can understand why OTT wants to move him.I sure hope the Oilers do their homework this time.

    Thanks for that Doc

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    If Smith had a killer U18s would he be talked about more like Dobson/Bouchard/Hughes?

    I think so.

    Heard a scout from McKeens say that the reason they had Smith lower than the others was a poor Tourney of Small Sample sizes.

    He listed off all the reasons he’s as good as their Top 10 guys, but they dinged him hard for “not playing well against the best of his age group”

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    RonnieB:
    For those above that are speculating about acquiring Faulk,,,it has been reported by several sources, including writers in both cities, that the Canes and Hawks are discussing a 1 for 1 Faulk for Saad trade. and the Canes are trying to hold out for more.

    Stan Bowman has bad taste in Dmen.

    Terrible extension for Seabrook.

    Dumps Kempny to WSH where he pushes Orpik down to 3rd pair which is probably a huge key to their Cup win.

    CAR wins that in a laugher if it’s 1 for 1.

  103. Durag says:

    texmex:
    1.5 x 2 for caggs per rishaug

    So our 4th line already costs $3.5M without a center. Cool.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jordan: I suspect that considering their terrible jobs protecting the HD Box, having both Seabrook and Faulk on the same team might have Ricki saying that would be un’bear’able.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJxCdh1Ps48

    8/10

    Would read again

  105. LadiesloveSmid says:

    texmex:
    1.5 x 2 for caggs per rishaug

    Who’s gotten paid less than expected in Chiarelli’s tenure? As much as expected?

  106. Alpine says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Who’s gotten paid less than expected in Chiarelli’s tenure? As much as expected?

    I was surprised Kassian got less than 2 per year but it seems he’s barely worth that anyways.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Relative Team mate % are essentially the total of WOWYs.

    The Drake had the 2nd worst RelTGF% on the team behind Letestu.

    The Drake has the 2nd worse RelTCF% on the team behind Pakarinen.

    He’s an Oiler so I will cheer for him, but I’m not sure he’s an Actual NHL player.

  108. Wilde says:

    The play there should’ve been to offer 1.5M on a one year, or 850k-1M for two years, yeah?

    Why do players keep getting the ‘both’ option of term /or/ AAV?

    Just like Kassian and Russell last summer.

  109. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Off the top of my head… Klefbom and Talbot. Maybe I’m missing someone, but the list is very short. Davidson’s extension came in below his qualifying offer. You could argue that Lucic was fair AAV at the time of signing (absolutely not regarding term) based on his established history.

  110. jtblack says:

    Did I ever tell you guys about the WHL player that got traded for a bus? 😉

  111. jtblack says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Who’s gotten paid less than expected in Chiarelli’s tenure? As much as expected?

    I understand why you’re asking what you’re asking, but how much would you expect to Caggulia to take?

    He had 13 Goals.

    League average is $3.2 mil/ yr. So he is at 50% of the average.

    I know he’s a black hole and I’m not condoning the signing, I just don’t understand how low you think you could sign him for.

  112. texmex says:

    jtblack,

    I agree. Typically speaking, a 13 goal scorer coming off an ELC does not get a pay cut.

  113. godot10 says:

    Durag: So our 4th line already costs $3.5M without a center. Cool.

    And the LW isn’t even a NHL player…a glorified AHL’er getting $1.5 million.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    $1.5M is at the upper end of what I deemed acceptable so I’m fine with it.

    At the end of the day, the league still values goals scored more that relative Corsi.

  115. T0ML says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Arguably McDavid.

  116. leadfarmer says:

    texmex,

    He should have been in the AHL in the first year and maybe some NHL time last year. We’re paying him like we expect him to improve which he better

  117. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    $1.5M is at the upper end of what I deemed acceptable so I’m fine with it.

    At the end of the day, the league still values goals scored more that relative Corsi.

    We always talk about defensemen that put up points being expensive. Which its true defensemen points are the most expensive points to get per dollar, but we dont talk much about forward points. They are not that much cheaper then defensemen points. What im getting at is players that put up points get paid. Whats the difference between a 45 point player that is +10 even strength goal differential and 65 point player that is +10 even strength goal differential.
    Money
    Piles and piles of money
    Thats it.
    That second player may get you couple extra shootout points but thats it

    What I’m getting at is we are paying a guy just for his goals when he is leaking like crazy in his own zone. But since he is putting up goals we are expected to be ok with it

  118. jtblack says:

    Well I know ciarelli doesn’t handle the best contracts all the time but I’m not sure what the narrative is here.

    Like if could Cagguila sign for 1.1 million we do backflips?

    Here arw the Oilers Goal Scoring Leaders from last Season:
    Salary for next season beside

    McD – 41 $12.5
    Drai – 25 $8.5
    RNH – 24 $6.0
    Maroon – 14 Traded
    Cagguila – 13 $1.5
    Strome – 13 Not sure
    Khaira – 11 $675k
    Lucic – 10 $6 Large

    So Objectively; is $1.5 Milion that egerious?

  119. leadfarmer says:

    jtblack,

    Yes it is. He should be paid league minimum for 1 year to show that he can play.

    I call this make sure to cheat for points in your contract year to get paid syndrome. Does it help your team win? Nope. Does it help you get paid? Absolutely

    As Woodguy kindly showed with math above. This is a player that should be happy he is playing in this league. But since he scored some goals he gets paid like a decent bottom of the roster player

  120. Bank Shot says:

    Caggiula’s contract is the same as Brett Connolly’s.

    Pretty similar production over the last two years.

    Can’t pay Caggiula like an AHLer if he has spent the last two seasons in the NHL.

  121. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I worry that the Oilers will take Ty Smith over Boquist and a number of the other d-men, including Bouchard, because he is the “safer pick”.

    I understand he is “safer” than a guy like Boquist but, at the end of the day, Smith himself is no sure thing for the top 4 in the NHL. Many picks around 10 don’t live up to their potential (many due and many surpass).

    There is no sure thing in the range so does it make sense to “play it safe” with Smith as opposed to the higher potential of a Boquist?

    IMO the Oiler would view Bouchard as the least risky pick of the three. And I for one beleive that they should be doing a risk assessment with every pick. When you have McDavid you shouldnt have to take a lot of risks/gambles……..They gambled on Tyler Benson for example…….

    But would agree with you that they might (probably do) view Ty Smith as less risky than Boqvist. So that will concern a lot of people as it does you.

  122. LadiesloveSmid says:

    jtblack: I understand why you’re asking what you’re asking, but how much would you expect to Caggulia to take?

    He had 13 Goals.

    League average is $3.2 mil/ yr. So he is at 50% of the average.

    I know he’s a black hole and I’m not condoning the signing, I just don’t understand how low you think you could sign him for.

    Sign an equally skilled player for 800K. They’re paying an unproven backup $2.5M, a #5D 4M, a 3LW $6M, and have $25M at C. With gaping holes on the wings they need all the room they can get.

    I trade Caggiula tomorrow if he has any cachet on the market

  123. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Karlsson is a wondeful player and it would be amazing to have the best forward (and player) and, arguably, the best d-man on the team.

    I worry, not only about acquisition cost but about:

    1) cap hit – he’s going to be in the $10M to $12M range and he will decline over the term of the contract

    2) injury – not future injury but that his past/existing injuries will permanently hamper his skating

    I don’t see a way to have this player on our team (on a new contract) and to keep Drai – is there?

    yeah….but when you can have Gretzky and Orr on the same team…..what else really matters?

  124. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Although not reflected in this blog, it seems Barrett Hayton is moving up many lists – I’ve seen him as high as 5th – really?

    I know centers are valuable but it would be fantastic if he got chosen in the top 9.

    If we choose him at 10, I’ll be some sort of miffed.

    Agreed. Please God…..let Hayton and Kravstov be in the top 9……

  125. Mr DeBakey says:

    Durag: So our 4th line already costs $3.5M without a center. Cool.

    When I do up a roster on Cap Friendly, my 4th line is now at $7.5 without a center.

  126. Bank Shot says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Sign an equally skilled player for 800K. They’re paying an unproven backup $2.5M, a #5D 4M, a 3LW $6M, and have $25M at C. With gaping holes on the wings they need all the room they can get.

    I trade Caggiula tomorrow if he has any cachet on the market

    Caggiula has two seasons of NHL employment.

    You could sign another Ty Rattie that is unproven for $800,000.

    His relative corsi is nearly as bad ad Caggiula’s and Ty played 70% of his icetime with Mcdavid.

    I think Caggiula being a problem on this hockey team is a little/lot overstated.

  127. jtblack says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Sign an equally skilled player for 800K. They’re paying an unproven backup $2.5M, a #5D 4M, a 3LW $6M, and have $25M at C. With gaping holes on the wings they need all the room they can get.

    I trade Caggiula tomorrow if he has any cachet on the market

    OK. I am only talking about the caggiula contract for 1.5 million.
    Not “They’re paying an unproven backup $2.5M, a #5D 4M, a 3LW $6M, and have $25M at C. ”

    Cagguila at $1.5 is a fair deal for both sides.

    All the other contracts are for a different convo.

  128. Melman says:

    Perhaps PC used up all his re-signing mojo on the Klef deal

  129. Andy Dufresne says:

    Darren Dreger: “Would you be willing in Edmonton to move Milan Lucic, who is still an effective player. Would you be willing to throw in Jesse Puljujarvi to sweeten it if you will, and maybe something else in order to get Noah Hanifan or Justin Faulk. I don’t know if either team would be interested.” (TSN1260)

    “Dreger did not talk about this as an active rumor, merely as an example (made certain it should be treated as such several times). That said, it frames my concern perfectly. Using “sweeten the deal” implies another half teaspoon of sugar in order to adjust for taste when in actuality you’re trading the entire Tabor Sugar Factory.”

    I brought this up yesterday. The idea that a deal could include other players so as to obscure the sweetner part of the deal.

    The example I used was Lucic and a Prospect (somewhere between Safin and Yammo) (But not JP) for Jeff Skinner. Hard to discern how much of a deal like this is “sweetner” It also has the affect of evening out the money from Carolinas point of view.

    I would do this deal, or the Hanafin deal, if it doesnt include JP. Its a hockey trade and has the added benefit ( a big benefit indeed) of moving the Lucic contract. The player is ok the contract is a big problem.

  130. Harpers Hair says:

    Death by paper cut.

  131. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Death by paper cut.

    There were a couple of limbs amputated along with the paper cuts. (Hall, the draft picks in the Reinhart trade). And a digit or two. (Eberle).

  132. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: There were a couple of limbs amputated along with the paper cuts.(Hall, the draft picks in the Reinhart trade).And a digit or two. (Eberle).

    And the beat goes on.

  133. jtblack says:

    I know I’m in the minority here but I actually like the backup goalie signing and the Caguila signing.

    We will probably know 20 games in whether backup goalie signing was a disaster or not but I like the risk and the Gamble.

    Caagguia @ $1.5 seems fair to me. The times have changed its hard to find 13 goal scorers believe it or not. I would now put more of the onus on the coaching staff to develope him a more complete player and not a black hole.

    Most people on this blog talk about buying low and selling high and all this stuff but they don’t really seem to live it when contracts are signed.

    So my point is we have a guy we’ve developed that had 13 goals and everyone thinks is shitty and his metrics were shitty and he still had 13 NHL goals so why don’t we work with him; develop him and see if he can be a 15 or 20 goal scorer and be a reliable day-to-day player.

    He has speed, he is feisty and he obviously can score a little bit; so at $1.5 million I think it’s worth the gamble to try to develop this player

  134. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Emmylou’s version of Pancho & Lefty >>>>>>> Willie & Merle’s version and I’ll fist fight anyone who says different.

    Roll up your sleeves….and bring that Radio DJ guy with you…….Merle and Willie…..by a “country mile”….

    Next thing your gonna tell me Alison Krauss’s 7 Spanish Angels >>>>>>>> Willie and Ray……

    Blasphemy!

    These are ballads!

  135. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: yeah….but when you can have Gretzky and Orr on the same team…..what else really matters?

    I don’t think Karlsson is like Orr. More like Burns without size. Orr was not only wildly talented and one of the best skaters ever, he was also a big strong player who could win fights.

    If there are 5 tool players Orr had 8.

  136. jtblack says:

    Lowetides blog is filled with ” why didn’t we develop this guy'”

    SCHULTZ
    PETRY
    YAKUPOV
    etc etc

    This is a small $$ contract and trying to develope a player that has shown good arrows at goal scoring and poor arrows elsewhere. But if you were to look at a lot of the people we’ve traded you can say the same thing.

    My point is why not take a little risk on Caggulia and see if he can be a better overall player and be part of the car and if he can’t so be it ; 1.5 million

  137. Rondo says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed. Please God…..let Hayton and Kravstov be in the top 9……

    My mock 9

    1. Dahlin
    2.Svechnikov
    3.Kotkaniemi
    4.Dobson
    5.Zadina
    6.Tkachuk
    7.Bouchard
    8.Hughes
    9. Wahlstrom
    10. I think Oilers will pick either Ty Smith or Barrett Hayton

  138. jtblack says:

    “If there are 5 tool players Orr had 8.”

    Great line. True Line. No D man has come close to “Orr” domination.

    I was too young too see him, but do appreciate him.

  139. Andy Dufresne says:

    knighttown:
    Carolina is the one team that has too many Top 4 defensemen in that they could trade one out and get nothing in return.Dundon has also talked about getting tougher.If they are the team and Jesse is the chip, I try to wrestle Jaccob Slavin out of there and convince them that a Hanifan led core fits better age wise with their nucleus of Svech and Jesse.

    I simply adore him.

    #10 OV + Jesse + Lucic for Slavin and Skinner

    I’d then look at a Klefbom for Pacioretty trade +/- assets

    The dollars aren’t far off…

    Nuge- McDavid- Rattie
    Skinner- Drai- Pacioretty
    Aberg- Strome- Vanek
    Caggs- Khaira- Kassian

    Slavin- Larsson
    Nurse- Benning
    Sekera- Russell

    Agreed! Tweaks……..Chiarelli style!

  140. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    “If there are 5 tool players Orr had 8.”

    Great line.True Line. No D man has come close to “Orr” domination.

    I was too young too see him, but do appreciate him.

    Cheers

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    texmex,

    He should have been in the AHL in the first year and maybe some NHL time last year.We’re paying him like we expect him to improve which he better

    Wait, you mean that, given he was a career winger in college, asking him to start his pro career at center coming off missing 6 weeks with an injury was not ideal for his development?

  142. Andy Dufresne says:

    Gret99zky:
    AMA:

    “Why won’t you use Led Zeppelin for a RE series?”

    “Should my family invest in a Camping Box?”

    Just think of all the “Why do you hate XXXXX” questions.

  143. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Cheers

    Gretzky is my idol and that’s the era I grew up in but the more I know of Orr and read about Orr, I would understand he was as dominant in his era
    Just Crazy Good.

    Edit; I also believe we are watching another player who dominates his era. MvDavid is tracking

  144. Andy Dufresne says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I don’t think Karlsson is like Orr. More like Burns without size. Orr was not only wildly talented and one of the best skaters ever, he was also a big strong player who could win fights.

    If there are 5 tool players Orr had 8.

    Agreed…..AND McDavid is no Gretzky either…..but its as close as anyone will get in the next 10 years.

  145. treevojo says:

    This right here is why Caggulia got another nhl contract.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/streamable.com/amp_player/sbeq1

  146. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed…..AND McDavid is no Gretzky either…..but its as close as anyone will get in the next 10 years.

    a) nobody is a Gretzky. Gretzky won 10 scoring titles by an average of 52 points? Nobody will
    b) The game has changed and it is harder to distance yourself from the pack then he used to be in regards to points or toughness or whatever. The average NHL player today is much better than the average NHL player was in 1980

    So the Gretzky dominance I grew up with will never be repeated again.

    I do think McD can win 10 scoring titles. Though it will be an average of 10 points per year.
    I did a crazy drunk and calculation one night based on Old stats and new stats and I have McDavid’s eiling at 134 points.

    as good as he’s being I truly believe the best is yet to come for Connor for points; and as he matures his overall game will be way better

  147. jtblack says:

    Andy. Not sure why that came up that way

  148. Harpers Hair says:

    Andy Dufresne: Roll up your sleeves….and bring that Radio DJ guy with you…….Merle and Willie…..by a “country mile”….

    Next thing your gonna tell meAlison Krauss’s 7 Spanish Angels >>>>>>>> Willie and Ray……

    Blasphemy!

    These are ballads!

    Anything by Allison Krause or Linda Ronstat are transcendent. Perfect pitch is a gift from the gods.

  149. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack: Gretzky is my idol and that’s the era I grew up in but the more I know of Orr and read about Orr,I would understand he was as dominant in his era
    Just Crazy Good.

    Edit;I also believe we are watching another player who dominates his era. MvDavid is tracking

    Connor is true generational, we’ll see if he can rise to a Wayne and Bobby’s level. If he doesn’t he’s still otherworldly.

  150. Scungilli Slushy says:

    treevojo:
    This right here is why Caggulia got another nhl contract.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/streamable.com/amp_player/sbeq1

    Yup

  151. Jaxon says:

    rickithebear: #15 Noel 50; Lwr #2 fwd
    #64 Dundas 56.5; Lwr #2fwd
    #71 Gruden 60; Lwr #2 fwd

    Gruden! Noel!

    Do you know what the ratio of Pts to Primary pts is in the NHL at 5-on-5? I think it would be an interesting addition to Projected 5-on-5 Primary Pts as a rough estimate of how many 5-on-5 Pts that might mean.

  152. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne: Agreed…..AND McDavid is no Gretzky either…..but its as close as anyone will get in the next 10 years.

    Connor is a beauty, so much goes into a career like Gretzky’s or Lemieux’s.

  153. Jaxon says:

    A question for the Lowetide Hive Mind:

    What is the historic ratio of 5-on-5 Points to 5-on-5 Primary Pts going back to, let’s say, 2005-2006?

    I’d like to add that rough estimate to my Projected 5-on-5 Primary Points calculation for an additional frame of reference.

  154. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Cags can learn to play defensively he’s fine. It’s just that he’s not young as a prospect and should be better already. He also has to be able to P.K. given he’s not an offensive threat.

  155. Munny says:

    Munny:
    If space could be made (Lucic et alii), who would you prefer to add to the team…

    Kessel or Karlsson?

    No one has an opinion on this? Personally, I think I would prefer to take a run at Kessel.

  156. Munny says:

    jtblack:
    “If there are 5 tool players Orr had 8.”

    Great line.True Line. No D man has come close to “Orr” domination.

    I was too young too see him, but do appreciate him.

    Plenty of highlights on youtube if people want to see what Orr could do. He was absolutely astonishing.

    ____

    Damn …Eskies on rain delay.

  157. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny: No one has an opinion on this?Personally, I think I would prefer to take a run at Kessel.

    Kessel given contract and health.

    I’m not sure I want either. Karlsson of the past sure but that isn’t the player today.

    Kessel doesn’t seem to find a home for long.

  158. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Kessel given contract and health.

    I’m not sure I want either. Karlsson of the past sure but that isn’t the player today.

    Kessel doesn’t seem to find a home for long.

    Kessel would be a perfect fit in Calgary.

  159. digger50 says:

    Durag: So our 4th line already costs $3.5M without a center. Cool.

    Well that’s bad news

    Or

    We just signed a #2 left winger for 1.5!! Yeah

    Because our depth right now would have Drake sitting in that spot. So much work to do.

    But I’m happy for Caggs, he worked his butt off, he threw hits, he forechecked, he lost his teeth, he went where he was told. It’s true he was over his head at times but he just kept going. He was and is a game rooster. (Lt descriptor)

    The team loves him so of course 1.5. Like many others, surround him with help and he gets better. (I hope) I realize he was surrounded by Connor for a spell.

    I hope he delivers this year and at the same time I pray we get wingers to push him down the line up.

  160. Wilde says:

    Andreas Johnsson’s last 6 months probably gets Jonatan Berggren drafted in the top 31.

  161. Professor Q says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I don’t think Karlsson is like Orr. More like Burns without size. Orr was not only wildly talented and one of the best skaters ever, he was also a big strong player who could win fights.

    If there are 5 tool players Orr had 8.

    What about Larry Robinson? Not in the same era as Orr, but arguably better and more well-rounded (just quieter at doing it, while also more imposing).

  162. Wilde says:

    Also, I think you can probably rearrange the money next year like this:

    RNH – McDavid – Strome

    Aberg – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi

    Lucic – Khaira – F/A

    Caggiula – F/A – Kassian

    By putting Strome as RW, you can start Yamamoto in the AHL and go for cheaper, PK-centric options in free agency and save some money to get Darnell signed for 6-8 years instead of bridging him.

    A skill RW for the top 6 probably costs ~4-5M and Strome could probably be signed for about 2.5.

    Then if 56 dominates the AHL, you just call him up and put back together the double-centre unit that worked well last year, Khaira&Strome

    There’s also an option here to still bridge Darnell, and go for a skill winger for Drai, swapping Aberg to 3RW.

    Of course, all of this is moot after the Lucic trade.

    I strongly believe it’s going to happen. Peter’s looking for it. When he looks for it, he finds it. When’s the last time didn’t?

  163. jtblack says:

    Wilde:
    Also, I think you can probably rearrange the money next year like this:

    RNH – McDavid – Strome

    Aberg – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi

    Lucic – Khaira – F/A

    Caggiula – F/A – Kassian

    By putting Strome as RW, you can start Yamamoto in the AHL and go for cheaper, PK-centric options in free agency and save some money to get Darnell signed for 6-8 years instead of bridging him.

    A skill RW for the top 6 probably costs ~4-5M and Strome could probably be signed for about 2.5.

    Then if 56 dominates the AHL, you just call him up and put back together the double-centre unit that worked well last year, Khaira&Strome

    There’s also an option here to go for a skill winger for Drai, and swap Aberg to 3RW.

    Of course, all of this is moot after the Lucic trade.

    I strongly believe it’s going to happen. Peter’s looking for it. When he looks for it, he finds it. When’s the last time didn’t?

    There wwass sooo much in this post. hmmmm……

  164. Harpers Hair says:

    Professor Q: What about Larry Robinson? Not in the same era as Orr, but arguably better and more well-rounded (just quieter at doing it, while also more imposing).

    You didn’t see Orr skate, did you?

  165. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair: You didn’t see Orr skate, did you?

    To be fair and truthful I saw neither of them. I’m fairly young in all honesty, despite how I feel at times.

  166. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Kessel would be a perfect fit in Calgary.

    Only if they want to stack one line

  167. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    ashley,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Where is the evidence that this is the case?

    He missed the first 5 games of the year recovering from that injury, he missed six more and put up 62 points in the 71 games he played. 43 of those points were at 5v5 (one SH). He played 26:44 a game. And he did all of that while his wife dealt with horrible online abuse and at the end of the season he suffered a terrible family loss.

    He was the top scorer (for the 5th year in a row) on the team who finished 2rd worst and who, for years before, has been offensively challenged.

    I understand being nervous about the cost of acquisition and resigning, that’s fair. But he is only 28 years old, he’s directly in prime time and the injury has not seemed to have had any effect on his offensive prowess.

    He would come into Edmonton instantly be the #1 D, would fill WoodGuy’s power-play role as a facilitator, can hit 80 foot outlet passes and can skate the puck better than any defenseman in the game today.

    And because the Oilers would still have Adam Larsson on the team there would be the opportunity to use him strategically so he wouldn’t have to play 27 minutes a night.

    As always it depends on cost but this is an incredible opportunity, Erik Karlsson is a generational talent for defensemen.

  168. Wilde says:

    Hey guys, who are the Michigan/Massachusetts area scouts for the Oilers?

    I’m digging on who might be the late round USNTDP depth player this year(keeping in line with the Jones, Kemp, Brind’Amour, McPhee selections)

  169. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    So far I’ve got:

    – Keith Sullivan apparently based out of Omaha, NE when he was hired by the Bruins per the nhl.com article at the time of the hiring

    – PJ Fenton, UMass grad based in Indiana

    e: Can’t find where Frank Jay is, and google brings up a cursed image of him with McCarron when the Habs wasted a high draft pick on him.

  170. Wilde says:

    leadfarmer: Only if they want to stack one line

    Is this a reference to Kessel refusing to play third unit?

    Cause this:

    Gaudreau – Monahan – Ferland

    Tkachuk – Backlund – Kessel

    Seems like two pretty strong lines to me.

    Now, if Peters figures out Mangiapane is a ridiculously potent scorer, this frees up Frolik to play with him and Bennett on the third line and then they’re looking pretty good to win the division, goaltending allowing.

  171. Munny says:

    Professor Q: What about Larry Robinson? Not in the same era as Orr, but arguably better and more well-rounded (just quieter at doing it, while also more imposing).

    More well-rounded than Orr? Not a chance.

  172. JimmyV1965 says:

    Alpine: I definitely think there is a gap between Kotkaniemi or whatever forward you could get late in the first. Ditto for Smith and Dmen.

    Gretzkys done well but he isn’t a drafting savant. We’re three years removed from him picking Zboril and Senyshen ahead of some great young players. Stu and Tambellini never quite messed up that bad in the first round.

    If he’s that good anyways why wouldn’t you want him to pick higher where there’s a higher chance of getting a great player?

    I just don’t think it’s ever a good idea for a team to trade down that far. I personally don’t love too many of the guys ranked late first/early second and we already have the 40th pick to worry about sorting through those players when it comes up.

    Those Bruins picks are interesting. Stauffer has said a couple times unequivocally that Debrusk was Gretzky’s only pick. The other two were Neely’s. He was being pushed out at that time already.

  173. jtblack says:

    Munny: More well-rounded than Orr?Not a chance.

    This debate goes down a never ending loop. This type of player vs that type.

    Bobby Orr hands down beats Larry Robinson every day.
    Was Robnson great? Yes. HHOF. Yes.

    Orr. Generational. Full Stop.

  174. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot: Caggiula has two seasons of NHL employment.

    You could sign another Ty Rattie that is unproven for $800,000.

    His relative corsi is nearly as bad ad Caggiula’s and Ty played 70% of his icetime with Mcdavid.

    I think Caggiula being a problem on this hockey team is a little/lot overstated.

    Alpine: a

    I think you can teach a kid to play defence. It’s much harder to teach someone to score 13 goals.

  175. leadfarmer says:

    Wilde,

    Yep. Kessel is going to demand to play with that top line. You think he wants the hard matchups Backlund brings? He didn’t want to play easier minutes with Brassard.
    Kessel is a perfect player for the Flames. Just a touch of locker room poison to go with a good but ageing goalie with a groin that hangs by a thread. Just hope they trade their first for him.

  176. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think you can teach a kid to play defence. It’s much harder to teach someone to score 13 goals.

    Yes but you are paying him for his 13 goals not for a kid that is a work in progress

  177. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: Just a touch of locker room poison

    Do you have a source for this character assassination?

  178. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: Is this a reference to Kessel refusing to play third unit?

    Cause this:

    Gaudreau – Monahan – Ferland

    Tkachuk – Backlund – Kessel

    Seems like two pretty strong lines to me.

    Now, if Peters figures out Mangiapane is a ridiculously potent scorer, this frees up Frolik to play with him and Bennett on the third line and then they’re looking pretty good to win the division, goaltending allowing.

    I don’t think Kessel wants to play on the Prairies.

  179. Alpine says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I think you can teach a kid to play defence. It’s much harder to teach someone to score 13 goals.

    Lot of people using “13 goals” like it’s some crowning achievement but Caggiula shot 12.5%, got enough top 6 time to boost his numbers and some 2nd unit PP as well.

    Will those same circumstances occur in the future for him to match that total? If the Oilers upgrade on the wings this summer, probably not.

    I don’t hate the contract, but to be worth it he’s going to have to improve a lot. Mainly on the defensive side of things because I don’t think he has much room to grow offensively nor will he have the role to foster that growth.

  180. Wilde says:

    So I’m going to use prospect-stats’s estimated TOI for the picks made by the Oilers and Bruins since 2015 in the USNTDP and see who lines up with them on the 2018, and see if there’s some clues on who our late round Americans might be this year.

    (position) player – team – 5v5 etoi – etoi/gp

    (F) Trent Frederic – 236 – 10.26

    (F) Graham McPhee – 241 – 12.06

    (D) Ryan Lindgren – 365 – 14.62

    (D) Phil Kemp – 334 – 13.36

    (F) Brind’Amour – 121 – 15.14 (low GP)

    So what’s the middle of the lineup look like for the 2017-18 US U18 team?

    I’m looking for similar toi’s and removing the big scorers likely to go in the first round(Farabee, Wahlstrom, Wilde)

    (D) Ty Emberson – 361 – 14.45

    (F) Johnny Gruden – 360 – 14.43

    (D) Mattias Samuelsson – 354 – 13.64

    (D) K’Andre Miller – 299 – 13.61

    (F) Jake Wise – 218 – 8.39 (This player was injured for the first half of the year)

    (F) Erik Middendorf – 347 – 12.42

    (F) Jack DeBoer – 274 – 10.97

    (F) Tyler Weiss – 242 – 11.02

    I will not be at all surprised if both #40 and #72 are used on two of these fellas, or, as a bonus guess I’ll say it may be Jack Randl, who players for the Omaha Lancers, that Keith Sullivan GM’d in 2012-2013 and Boston took Jacob Forsbacka-Karlsson from in 2015 when Sullivan was with them as a US scout.

    Some of the more under-the-radar guys will obviously be 5ths, 6ths or 7ths.

    As for the first three rounds…

    The 2016 Boston draft went like this:

    #14 – McAvoy – Boston Univ.

    #29 – Frederic – USNTDP

    #49 – Lindgren – USNTDP

    and I believe the Oilers 2018 may go something like this:

    #10 – Kotkaniemi – SM-Liiga

    #40 – K’Andre Miller – USNTDP

    #71 – Jake Wise – USNTDP

  181. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: Yes but you are paying him for his 13 goals not for a kid that is a work in progress

    My sense of it, and I might be wrong, is that when you are paid $1.5 mill you are either a fading vet who was never a star to begin with, or a work in progress. It would be nice to see Chia play hardball sometimes though. I’m sure the Drake would have been quite happy at $1.25.

  182. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    So I’m going to use prospect-stats’s estimated TOI for the picks made by the Oilers and Bruins since 2015 in the USNTDP and see who lines up with them on the 2018, and see if there’s some clues on who our late round Americans might be this year.

    (position) player – team – 5v5 etoi – etoi/gp

    (F) Trent Frederic– 236 – 10.26

    (F) Graham McPhee –241 – 12.06

    (D) Ryan Lindgren – 365 – 14.62

    (D) Phil Kemp – 334 – 13.36

    (F) Brind’Amour – 121 – 15.14 (low GP)

    So what’s the middle of the lineup look like for the 2017-18 US U18 team?

    I’m looking for similar toi’s and removing the big scorers likely to go in the first round(Farabee, Wahlstrom, Wilde)

    (D) Ty Emberson – 361 – 14.45

    (F) Johnny Gruden – 360 – 14.43

    (D) Mattias Samuelsson – 354 – 13.64

    (D) K’Andre Miller – 299 – 13.61

    (F) Jake Wise – 218 – 8.39 (This player was injured for the first half of the year)

    (F) Erik Middendorf – 347 – 12.42

    (F) Jack DeBoer – 274 – 10.97

    (F) Tyler Weiss – 242 – 11.02

    I will not be at all surprised if both #40 and #72 are used on two of these fellas, or, as a bonus guess I’ll say it may be Jack Randl, who players for the Omaha Lancers, that Keith Sullivan GM’d in 2012-2013 and Boston took Jacob Forsbacka-Karlsson from in 2015 when Sullivan was with them as a US scout.

    Some of the more under-the-radar guys will obviously be 5ths, 6ths or 7ths.

    As for the first three rounds…

    The 2016 Boston draft went like this:

    #14 – McAvoy – Boston Univ.

    #29 – Frederic – USNTDP

    #49 – Lindgren – USNTDP

    and I believe the Oilers 2018 may go something like this:

    #10 – Kotkaniemi – SM-Liiga

    #40 – K’Andre Miller – USNTDP

    #71 – Jake Wise – USNTDP

    Nice detective work. Would love K’Andre Miller, but I don’t think he’ll be available at 40. Kids like this make strong case for trading down.

  183. Munny says:

    I have a feeling I will not be watching the end of this CFL game.

  184. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    JimmyV1965: My sense of it, and I might be wrong, is that when you are paid $1.5 mill you are either a fading vet who was never a star to begin with, or a work in progress. It would be nice to see Chia play hardball sometimes though. I’m sure the Drake would have been quite happy at $1.25.

    Yeah maybe but his agent probably wouldn’t have.

  185. GMB3 says:

    jtblack:
    I know I’m in the minority here but I actually like the backup goalie signing and the Caguila signing.

    We will probably know 20 games in whether backup goalie signing was a disaster or not but I like the risk and the Gamble.

    Caagguia @ $1.5 seems fair to me. The times have changed its hard to find 13 goal scorers believe it or not.I would now put more of the onus on the coaching staff to develope hima more complete player and not a black hole.

    Most people on this blog talk about buying low and selling high and all this stuff but they don’t really seem to live it when contracts are signed.

    So my point is we have a guy we’ve developed that had 13 goals and everyone thinks is shitty and his metrics were shitty and he still had 13 NHL goals so why don’t we work with him;develop him and see if he can be a 15 or 20 goal scorer and be a reliable day-to-day player.

    He has speed, he is feisty and he obviously can score a little bit; so at $1.5 million I think it’s worth the gamble to try to develop this player

    Also a huge defensive liability and spent a great deal of time on the PP and in the top 6. 13 goals is great production from a bottom six player but I’d bet my rent he doesn’t score 13 if not playing with McDavid or Drai

  186. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Wilde,

    Yep.Kessel is going to demand to play with that top line.You think he wants the hard matchups Backlund brings?He didn’t want to play easier minutes with Brassard.
    Kessel is a perfect player for the Flames.Just a touch of locker room poison to go with a good but ageing goalie with a groin that hangs by a thread.Just hope they trade their first for him.

    Yeah the Penguins locker room must have been so poisonous when they won two straight cups and lost to the eventual champs in pursuit of a third. Seems legit.

    Is there any actual evidence that Kessell wants a trade because he wants to play on the first line? Or is this all hearsay.

    Reading this made my head feel like I got blindsided by Tom Wilson

  187. GMB3 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Kessel given contract and health.

    I’m not sure I want either. Karlsson of the past sure but that isn’t the player today.

    Kessel doesn’t seem to find a home for long.

    Did you watch Erik Karlsson play this season? His numbers look pretty damn good.

  188. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3: Yeah the Penguins locker room must have been so poisonous when they won two straight cups and lost to the eventual champs in pursuit of a third. Seems legit.

    Is there any actual evidence that Kessell wants a trade because he wants to play on the first line? Or is this all hearsay.

    Reading this made my head feel like I got blindsided by Tom Wilson

    The narrative is that he butted heads with the coach because he didn’t play him Malkin in the playoffs. No idea if it’s true. I think he’s probably a head case and someone you have to babysit a bit, but clearly you can win with him.

  189. Munny says:

    Unbelievable turn of events.

    #esks

  190. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t think Kessel wants to play on the Prairies.

    Probably not.

    leadfarmer:
    Wilde,

    Yep.Kessel is going to demand to play with that top line.You think he wants the hard matchups Backlund brings?He didn’t want to play easier minutes with Brassard.
    Kessel is a perfect player for the Flames.Just a touch of locker room poison to go with a good but ageing goalie with a groin that hangs by a thread.Just hope they trade their first for him.

    If he wanted on Malkin’s line, I don’t think he really has issues with qual comp. Seems to be more of a minutes played, and quality of teammates issue with him.

  191. Munny says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t think Kessel wants to play on the Prairies.

    If Karlsson wants out he won’t want to go to another Canadian fishbowl, I’d wager too.

    I was curious about people’s preference though, given the choice.

  192. Bank Shot says:

    Munny,

    Yeah I’d say its a safe bet Karlsson would nix a trade to Edmonton.

  193. rickithebear says:

    Oilman99: Aberg, Caggulia, and Khaira are not top six prospects. The Oilers must find a way to add a top six winger in order for Draisitle to succeed at the level he is being paid at.

    Caggulia s evgpg was upper #6 fwd level.
    Khaira,s evg goal rate was upper #5 forward level

  194. Ribs says:

    Alpine: Lot of people using “13 goals” like it’s some crowning achievement but Caggiula shot 12.5%, got enough top 6 time to boost his numbers and some 2nd unit PP as well.

    Wow, is that a real stat (12.5%)?? I wonder what the adjusted percentage is with all of his shots that didn’t come close to being on net! lol. This is a guy who I can see going on a goal scoring streak someday. Just like Todd Marchant. Oh crap, that didn’t work. I mean Martin Gelinas. Yeah. That’s the ticket. Rollin’ them dice.

  195. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3: Yeah the Penguins locker room must have been so poisonous when they won two straight cups and lost to the eventual champs in pursuit of a third. Seems legit.

    Is there any actual evidence that Kessell wants a trade because he wants to play on the first line? Or is this all hearsay.

    Reading this made my head feel like I got blindsided by Tom Wilson

    He played over half of his minutes in the regular season with Malkin and another 120 or so with Crosby so about 70% of his time was with a generational center.

    I don’t imagine his useage is an issue for him.

  196. OriginalPouzar says:

    At some point Chiarelli is going to need to get a clear win (or two or three) with his signings.

    I mean, we came in to the off-season with next to no cap space to improve (after reasonable signings of the 4 RFAs we know were coming back) and since then he has signed an unproven 30 year old back-up to a $2.5M contract and Caggulia to the very upper end of reasonable (but within the range).

    Personally, I had the following thoughts:

    – Caggulia – $1.25M
    – Benning – $1.75M
    – Strome – $3M
    – Nurse – $3.25 on a bridge or $4.5 with long term

    Chiarelli is going to need to get a win on at least one of the last three main RFAs.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine: Lot of people using “13 goals” like it’s some crowning achievement but Caggiula shot 12.5%, got enough top 6 time to boost his numbers and some 2nd unit PP as well.

    Will those same circumstances occur in the future for him to match that total? If the Oilers upgrade on the wings this summer, probably not.

    I don’t hate the contract, but to be worth it he’s going to have to improve a lot. Mainly on the defensive side of things because I don’t think he has much room to grow offensively nor will he have the role to foster that growth.

    Jason Spezza had 8 goals and Bobby Ryan had 11 – they both make a tiny bit more than $1.5M, also saw top 6 and PP time and also aren’t very good defensively.

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