Bad Moon Rising
























I see the bad moon arising, I see trouble on the way
I see earthquakes and lightnin, I see bad times today
Dont go around tonight, its bound to take your life
Theres a bad moon on the rise
I hear hurricanes ablowing, I know the end is coming soon
I fear rivers over flowing, I hear the voice of rage and ruin

-John Fogerty

John Fogerty is a talented songwriter and musician, but quite possibly the worst business man ever. No matter how much he’s earned from his music, he’s paid out that and more to people with 1/10 the talent.

Talent is on the mind of Oilers fans this week. The Oilers HAVE talent, just not in the quantities that they and other NHL teams might find useful. The Oilers have players who will have NHL careers, but their value and exactly what they can do hasn’t yet been established. So they are “prospects” or “suspects” but they are not worth 100 cents on the dollar.

An interesting media interview with Kevin Lowe was on Bob Stauffer’s show on the Team 1260 this afternoon. Lowe basically said he’s making more calls then he’s getting, and although he is open for business there’s not a lot shaking (that last portion is me summing it up, he didn’t say that).

I believe that’s predictable. The players Edmonton needs to keep (actual NHL players who can help you win games) are the only ones other clubs are interested in, as they try to fill the slots at the top end of their roster. The prospects and young NHLers EDM has are useful at the trade deadline and then after the draft and UFA season in summer.

Why? Well, with the UFA list not yet exhausted NHL teams are going with option A, which might be Scott Gomez or Paul Kariya or Brian Rafalski. Once those players find homes, and once some other holes are filled at the draft, then players like Marc Pouliot and Rob Schremp may have some value.

This week Lowe’s assets for trade include three first round picks this season and two next year. A clear reflection of the strength of this year’s draft is that EDM’s 1st rder in 2008 might be the most valuable asset available on draft day.

Hey, don’t get me wrong. I hope that on draft day Edmonton deals Matt Greene, Rob Schremp and the 30th overall pick for Wade Redden, but for the life of me I can’t find a good reason for Ottawa to make that trade.

This time next week I think the main topic of conversation for Oiler fans will be how high they’ll pick next season and who will replace Kevin Lowe when he’s canned in the spring.

The Oilers are similar to the Maple Leafs. They have players of value they don’t want to trade, players of value who are overpriced for the marketplace, and unproven talent they must develop in order to create interest.

If you’re a draft nut, this is going to be fun. If you like to see your team win hockey games, please direct your attention to the top of this post and Mr. Fogerty.

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13 Responses to "Bad Moon Rising"

  1. James L. says:

    Great song that warned against the kleptocratic Republican culture of corruption to come with the age of Nixon.

  2. Dennis says:

    The dye has been cast and if the hue’s to change, money will have to be spent.

    There’s very little evidence to suggest that the Oilers will do that, though.

  3. Big T says:

    james l;

    I think you’re a little off, but you go.

    LT;

    Very good point regarding the value of Lowe’s prospects. The value of these picks will improve about August one.

    You’re point also helps to make mine with regards to trades including Richards, Redden, etc… Even overpaying by sending Horcoff to Tampa would have a net positive effect in Oiler-land as it would increase the percieved attractiveness of signing with the Oilers to all incoming UFA’s.

    Although not at the top of all UFA’s mind, winning is at the top of many, if all other things are equal. IMHO ‘all other things’ are basically money. If Lowe offers the same money to a given player (ala. Spacek) his decision is basically down to which team does he think has a better chance of winning. Anything done to improve this percieved chance (real or imagined) increases the liklihood of that UFA choosing Edmonton.

    Edmonton may not seem that attractive to many UFA’s but that’s pretty much entirely because we have no big name players. Last year Pronger was traded before many UFA’s were signed and the year before Lowe refused to pay the prices commanded by UFA’s as he thought the cap was going down AND/OR already spent his money.

    Make a big trade, even if for a slight overpayment, and the prospects of signing quality UFA’s is much brighter.

    Now whether this is the year to sign any of the prospective UFA’s is another question.

    T

  4. Big T says:

    Oh, and does anyone else think it might not be the best idea to be trading away first round picks for guys you’d probably sign anyway.

    Can’t see any other team offering more money that Philly offered for Hartnell and Timmonen. Seems like they paid a first round pick just to show they were making a splash to their fans and prospective players. Too rich for my blood.

    T

  5. Bendelson says:

    You nailed in LT.

    The Oilers and KLowe are be in deep trouble.
    Maybe there is a huge trade out there waiting for the Oil, but it’s not likely…
    FA’s? Not in Edm. OK maybe Tarnstrom (who is a solid #5 dman). Not going to help!

    With the amount of changes needed to make them a playoff team, I can’t see how it’s going to happen – still hoping KLowe can pull it off, but…

    Waiting on Tavaras doesn’t seem like the craziest idea if we are going to be a lottery team over the next few years…

    It’s all so sad.

  6. RiversQ says:

    Why? Well, with the UFA list not yet exhausted NHL teams are going with option A, which might be Scott Gomez or Paul Kariya or Brian Rafalski. Once those players find homes, and once some other holes are filled at the draft, then players like Marc Pouliot and Rob Schremp may have some value.

    So they should have waited on Pronger?

    Sorry couldn’t resist.

    I hate watching my team struggle, but I think we predicted this. Basically, a significant contingent of Oilogosphere types said that you couldn’t replace Ryan Smyth for the same or less money.

    Get ready Edmonton.

    You can start by grabbing your ankles.

  7. mc79hockey says:

    The players Edmonton needs to keep (actual NHL players who can help you win games) are the only ones other clubs are interested in, as they try to fill the slots at the top end of their roster. The prospects and young NHLers EDM has are useful at the trade deadline and then after the draft and UFA season in summer.

    Unless, of course, some GM has a chunk of his brain removed and is looking to trade Chris Pronger. In which case Rob Schremp will be fucking better than magical gold.

    Like Riv, I couldn’t resist. I don’t think that the dogs turn on Lowe until about February of next year.

  8. mamett says:

    Great post LT.

    Poor Lowe, think of all those wasted long distance minutes on his cell-phone so far, as he begs some GM, anyone, to give him an elite player for Robbie Schremp and Robert Nillson. I can hear it now. Lowe feeling the stinging pain of rebuke, the click at the end of the line, the look in Lowe’s eyes that if they could have just won game 7…the entire drab, depressing melancholia of it all.

    Man, all this losing and organizational mismanagement suck shit.

    There is still one way out of this whole mess. It involves an 8 million dollar 8 year contract given to Scott Gomez, and a 5 million dollar 3 year contract given to Paul Karyia. Then in August you can re-visit prying some d-men away from some teams.

    Money. It’s the only assett Lowe has that still has full value, and he better fucking use it. As I’ve stated many times before: Cap-space means NOTHING if you don’t use it. Nothing. It is not an end in itself.

    Hold on tight oiler fans. Either were going to get some pleasant suprises in the next 2 weeks, or we can light up the blogosphere bitching and moaning until August. Either way it should be fun.

    Also, doesn’t the Smyth contract look just fucking dandy today? I mean if Scott Hartnell gets 4.2 million, what the hell was Lowe thinking when he let 94 walk away over a couple of 100k.

  9. Daniel says:

    The Oilers are similar to the Maple Leafs.

    Jesus, twist the knife a little harder.

  10. OYLer says:

    One does hate to be a crab (as in the Tropic of Cancer), and the summer solstice should be a brightening time of year, but our penny-pinching GM has so muddled his sundial only a blinding flash of cash will save his sorry from ash.

    There’s a bevy of portly baby boomers all too ready to bad moon KLowe into rising to the occasion or enduring several thousand tons of cheek pressed onto Edmonton auto glass!

    Bad Moons Arising will protend a general uprising, but please fan liberally, and keep the glass cleaner handy.

  11. Pete says:

    I hope that on draft day Edmonton deals Matt Greene, Rob Schremp and the 30th overall pick for Wade Redden, but for the life of me I can’t find a good reason for Ottawa to make that trade.

    Cap space seems obvious enough. Redden’s 6.5-million hit can go towards Emery’s raise and keeping Preissing’s who’s proven himself to be a poor man’s Wade Redden.

    If they can jettison Gerber somewhere, then tahat’s even more money to sign a backup and depth wherever they think they need it.

    Ottawa then keeps their very good core intact for at least one more run, before the major questions come up next summer (Spezza or Heatley?)

    In short, I admit EDM’s not sending much back in return in that deal, but I think you could view it as addition by subtraction.

  12. Colby Cosh says:

    I think we’d be lucky to get Preissing instead of Redden back for that package.
    And now that I think about it, I would probably make that deal…

  13. speeds says:

    I like Redden fine, but I just don’t see the reason for EDM to shell out that many assets for him until EDM has swung and missed on the UFA market.

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