Oilers Rookies Under MacT: EV ppg/60mins

I’ve been looking at this over the last few days just to compare the latest crop of rookie forwards to the most recent past. I don’t think you can compare year over year but Even Strength points per 60 minutes is a really nice line in the sand (it isn’t mine, it’s from the RiversQ, Vic Ferrari, Mudcrutch group of bloggers).

There are still lots of variables (Mudcrutch mentioned in a post below that ‘quality of opposition’ is a huge consideration in reference to Hemsky never having exceeded his rookie number) and I think that’s one of the really important things to look at as these players move along from their rookie seasons. It’s a “tell” we as fans can gain insight from if we know what to look for, and it can give us valuable information (like Zach Parise not being quite the impact player his raw numbers imply. I’m not putting him down as a player, he’s excellent. He just isn’t worth a crazy offer sheet imo).

Anyway, Oilers rookie forwards under MacTavish:

2000-01 (Oilers scored 243 goals)

  1. Mike Comrie 2.52
  2. Shawn Horcoff 2.24
  3. Dom Pittis 1.24
  4. Brian Swanson 0.82 (small sample)
  5. Michel Riesen 0.63 (small sample)
  6. Jason Chimera 0 (small sample)

2001-02 (Oilers scored 205 goals)

  1. Jason Chimera 1.65 (small sample)
  2. Brian Swanson 0.98 (small sample)
  3. Jani Rita 0 (small sample)

2002-03 (Oilers scored 231 goals)

  1. Ales Hemsky 2.26
  2. Jani Rita 2.22 (small sample)
  3. Fernando Pisani 2.13
  4. Jarret Stoll 2.00 (small sample)
  5. Jason Chimera 1.90

2003-04 (Oilers scored 221 goals)

  1. Jarret Stoll 1.39
  2. Peter Sarno 1.19 (small sample)
  3. Mike Bishai 0.98
  4. Tony Salmelainen 0.51 (small sample)
  5. Jani Rita 0 (small sample)

2005-06 (Oilers scored 256 goals)

  1. Marc Pouliot 0.92 (small sample)
  2. Brad Winchester 0.54 (small sample)
  3. Kyle Brodziak 0.00 (small sample)
  4. Jean Francois Jacques 0.00 (small sample)

2006-07 (Oilers scored 195 goals)

  1. Brad Winchester 1.19
  2. Marc Pouliot 1.17
  3. Patrick Thoresen 1.15
  4. Zach Stortini 0.31
  5. JF Jacques 0.00

I don’t know that it has any application in terms of comparing year to year and we should really throw out all the guys whose sample size is small. There are some interesting things here though, including the fact that no forward played much in the season the Oilers ran to the Cup. I think MacTavish does a good job developing rookies (and the bloggers are alone on this island btw) but also believe he’s better suited to having mostly veteran players with a few rookies in the mix. For that reason this upcoming season may be trying for MacT.

Also interesting is the list of players who managed to get into the lineup, stay in the lineup and were better than 2/ppg. That list is small (Comrie, Horcoff, Hemsky, Pisani) and pretty much represents the cream of the crop (although Stoll is a guy who we’d probably throw on a list of the cream of this group if we were just talking players and how they’ve turned out).

Anyway, I have no idea what value this has but thought I’d post it just out of interest.

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8 Responses to "Oilers Rookies Under MacT: EV ppg/60mins"

  1. godot10 says:

    Ottawa has cap issues (Redden, Heatley, Fisher all UFA after next season, Spezza, Vermette, Meszaros all RFA).

    Peter Schaefer has 3 years left at $2.3 million per season. He has to go because of the cap isues.

    Schaefer, Horcoff, Hemsky
    Torres, Stoll, Pisani
    Moreau, Pouliot, Nilson/Thoreson
    Sanderson, Reasoner, Stortini/Brodziak

    Schaefer, Fisher, Havlat was a pretty good line.

    Not the ideal choice, but the contract isn’t ridiculous and he can skate and check.

  2. juanvaldez1980 says:

    I read somewhere that Ottawa was considering waiving Schaefer, which means he can probably be had for a pick.

    But he’s a 2nd liner at best. We already have Torres, Moreau and about a million rookies for the 2, 3, 4 spots.

    S’ppose we could trade Torres tho.

  3. Master Lok says:

    I think MacTavish does a good job developing rookies (and the bloggers are alone on this island btw) but also believe he’s better suited to having mostly veteran players with a few rookies in the mix. For that reason this upcoming season may be trying for MacT.

    Actually I’ve always been quick to pounce on hfboards those posters who blab the old “MacT can’t coach young kids” myth.

    While I agree with you that MacT probably prefers a veteran lineup with few rookies, my guess is that so does most coaches. In fact, I’m not sure there are any NHL coaches who would prefer to go into a season with rookies over veteran players… and expect to win.

  4. Lowetide says:

    master lok: Absolutely true. The only manager/coach I know who was like that (or almost like that) was Dick Williams. He managed Boston, Oakland, Montreal and Seattle and each time he arrived in a new town the team would make a major upswing with a bunch of kids buried on the farm.

    But that was one in a million.

  5. Oil Stain says:

    Pouliot and Thoresen were outscored in their rookie seasons by a guy the org. deemed expendable.

    That doesn’t leave a good taste in my mouth.

    The guys that went on to be top six (Hemsky, Comrie, Horcoff, Stoll) beat out the borderline NHLers by a fairly nice margin.

    Makes a guy wonder about the career paths of Pouliot and Thor.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    Pouliot & Thor had the two best Goals Against rates on the Oilers.

    So that’s something

    I understand that the Goals Against Rate is not a big winner with most Oiler fans.

    And as LT pointed out, many of Poulit’s very nice passes were made when JFJ was his winger.

  7. Oil Stain says:

    To become difference makers forwards need some kind of offensive upside.

    Thor and Pouliot were given more chances with offensive players then Winchester and were still beaten in scoring rate.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Pouliot played tougher minutes. According to Desjardins:

    1. Pouliot (ranked 182nd/676)
    2. Thoresen (ranked 370th/676)
    3. Winchester (ranked 517th/676)

    Pouliot was actually playing what could be argued were top 6 minutes (although it’s a stretch). He didn’t score goals but he was playing tough opponents and wasn’t being scored on, either.

    We’ll see. He has a prime chance as this club is set up right now to have a big year.

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