I’ve been looking at this over the last few days just to compare the latest crop of rookie forwards to the most recent past. I don’t think you can compare year over year but Even Strength points per 60 minutes is a really nice line in the sand (it isn’t mine, it’s from the RiversQ, Vic Ferrari, Mudcrutch group of bloggers).
There are still lots of variables (Mudcrutch mentioned in a post below that ‘quality of opposition’ is a huge consideration in reference to Hemsky never having exceeded his rookie number) and I think that’s one of the really important things to look at as these players move along from their rookie seasons. It’s a “tell” we as fans can gain insight from if we know what to look for, and it can give us valuable information (like Zach Parise not being quite the impact player his raw numbers imply. I’m not putting him down as a player, he’s excellent. He just isn’t worth a crazy offer sheet imo).
Anyway, Oilers rookie forwards under MacTavish:
2000-01 (Oilers scored 243 goals)
- Mike Comrie 2.52
- Shawn Horcoff 2.24
- Dom Pittis 1.24
- Brian Swanson 0.82 (small sample)
- Michel Riesen 0.63 (small sample)
- Jason Chimera 0 (small sample)
2001-02 (Oilers scored 205 goals)
- Jason Chimera 1.65 (small sample)
- Brian Swanson 0.98 (small sample)
- Jani Rita 0 (small sample)
2002-03 (Oilers scored 231 goals)
- Ales Hemsky 2.26
- Jani Rita 2.22 (small sample)
- Fernando Pisani 2.13
- Jarret Stoll 2.00 (small sample)
- Jason Chimera 1.90
2003-04 (Oilers scored 221 goals)
- Jarret Stoll 1.39
- Peter Sarno 1.19 (small sample)
- Mike Bishai 0.98
- Tony Salmelainen 0.51 (small sample)
- Jani Rita 0 (small sample)
2005-06 (Oilers scored 256 goals)
- Marc Pouliot 0.92 (small sample)
- Brad Winchester 0.54 (small sample)
- Kyle Brodziak 0.00 (small sample)
- Jean Francois Jacques 0.00 (small sample)
2006-07 (Oilers scored 195 goals)
- Brad Winchester 1.19
- Marc Pouliot 1.17
- Patrick Thoresen 1.15
- Zach Stortini 0.31
- JF Jacques 0.00
I don’t know that it has any application in terms of comparing year to year and we should really throw out all the guys whose sample size is small. There are some interesting things here though, including the fact that no forward played much in the season the Oilers ran to the Cup. I think MacTavish does a good job developing rookies (and the bloggers are alone on this island btw) but also believe he’s better suited to having mostly veteran players with a few rookies in the mix. For that reason this upcoming season may be trying for MacT.
Also interesting is the list of players who managed to get into the lineup, stay in the lineup and were better than 2/ppg. That list is small (Comrie, Horcoff, Hemsky, Pisani) and pretty much represents the cream of the crop (although Stoll is a guy who we’d probably throw on a list of the cream of this group if we were just talking players and how they’ve turned out).
Anyway, I have no idea what value this has but thought I’d post it just out of interest.