Tavares

News tonight that John Tavares and his agents want to declare for the 2008 Entry Draft.

Tavares misses eligibility for the 2008 Draft by just 5 days (current NHL rules state the line in the sand is September 15, he was born on the 20th). I would think the issue would turn on the argument that September 15th is an arbitrary date set by the league and that January 1st of each year would be the more logical eligibility date.

As for the Oilers, it points out just how ridiculous it would be to put in an offer sheet for Zach Parise. You lose at least one (and as many as three) first round picks, pay full price for a fine young player, AND give up your chip in the draft lottery (should the Oilers miss the playoffs by a bunch, which is certainly possible) that includes this kid.

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17 Responses to "Tavares"

  1. mc79hockey says:

    I would think that it’s also another on the looooong list of reasons it was stupid to pick up Sheldon Souray.

  2. Lowetide says:

    MC: Signing Souray means they probably don’t do an offer sheet, so at least there’s a chance they finish 28th.

    But yeah, I agree.

  3. Devin says:

    With you 100% LT, but I think there’s no hope in hell Tavares gets into the 08 draft. Poor guy doesn’t have a ton of options, either – go to the RSL for your 18 y/o year, or score like 100 goals and atrophy with the kids? Too bad there was no IHL for this sort of case.

  4. jon says:

    In all honesty Tavares will go to a team that no one really expects at this point in time. There’s a whole two seasons of playing yet to be done, plenty of time for teams to fall apart. Similarly, the core of our team will be reaching their prime then so the discussion regarding the Oilers’ possibility of drafting him are moot.

  5. Kyle says:

    Tavares in this draft would mean 3 legitimate high end players right off the bat -Stamkos, Doughty, and obviously Tavares.

    I agree 100% that an offer sheets is an absolutely terrible idea. If we’re not going to be winning, we might as well be losing big time.

  6. Doogie says:

    The only argument for September 15, really, is due to training camp, etc. But honestly, I’d make it October 1, so that way, there’s no questioning the legitimacy (you have to be 18 for the start of the season), but there’s also room for the odd extra player who might miss the current cutoff.

  7. Pat says:

    I think Lowe is dumb, but I have trouble believing that he’s so dumb that he’d give an offer sheet to a player who he basically traded away in order to get M.A. Pouliot.

  8. Big T says:

    mc79hockey said;
    “I would think that it’s also another on the looooong list of reasons it was stupid to pick up Sheldon Souray.”

    tyler;

    If you’re saying that signing Souray is a mistake on the basis that it hurts your chances at getting Tavares then you must believe Souray helps you win.

    Obviously Lowe thinks that Souray helps you win, that’s why he signed him for 5 yrs, but I think having Souray on your team as he is probably increases our odds at a lottery pick.

    Huddy may work wonders with the guy and turn him into a respectable 3-4 ES guy, but as of now, he probably drags this team down.

    That said, what is the value of having a lottery pick at Tavares? If this team is a 50% shot at being in the bottom five of the league (some may say it’s more like a 70% shot) and only a 20% shot that you win the lottery (I know it’s not a simple ‘one-in-five’ draw but close enough) what is the value of a 10-14% shot at Tavarres?

    Not enough to avoid taking the right player via RFA offer sheet I’d say. I don’t want Lowe to go after Parise either. But it’s not because I’m afraid to give up the picks – it’s ’cause I don’t think he’s the player his counting numbers seem to illustrate.

    I’d be fine with giving up four picks for Vanek or OV or Malkin. I’d do it in a second. But it’s because I beleive they’re better quality players, not because of the price of the picks.

    Not giving up the pick because it’s a 14% chance at Tavarres is over-valuing the two birds in the bush. If you can agree to terms with one of them on an offer sheet (as Vanek did), keep the bird in your hand.

    We’re not winning it all this year, with or without Vanek/OV/Malkin. But those type of guys are well worth four first round picks even if one is a lottery ticket for the “next-next one”. It’s still a lottery ticket.

    T

  9. Big T says:

    Are Stamkos and Doughty likely to be as good or better than Vanek/OV/Malkin? If they are, then they have to be added into the equation too, right.

    If the value of Tavares is ‘X’, the value of the lottery ticket in my example is 0.14X OR not very damn high. But if Stamkos is (X-0.10) – ie; 90% the player that Tavares is and Doughty is (X-0.15) – 85% the player, then the value of that pick is approximately 0.14X PLUS 0.14(X-0.10) PLUS 0.14(X-0.15) or so.

    So the value of the 2008 Oilers pick = 0.14X + 0.126X + 0.119X OR 0.385X. so even if Vanek is half the player that Tavares is (0.50X) he’s still worth more than the combined value of the three picks… 0.50X > 0.385X.

    T

  10. jon says:

    Nicely done Big T. The top 10 in both 2008 and 2009 are supposed to be very nice with some franchise players to be found. Hopefully we can find a means of obtaining a top10 pick in either draft without earning it.

  11. Big T says:

    Oh I think we’re good for earning at least one top ten pick in the next two years – with the odds pointing to this year especially.

    But even if the Oil were absolutely guaranteed to be a lottery pick this year, they still only have a 60-70% chance (depending on just how bad the team does) of getting one of those three. I don’t see this team as being worse than Phoenix – holy man they look awful.

    Besides that, this year, outside of the top three, the odds of getting a franchise player have to drop significantly don’t they? I don’t follow these guys close enough to make an argument either way here. Just a guess.

    I’d like to see Jacques go for Glen Murray – if that’s enough for him – in order to do some more deadline deals this season too. If the market for these guys remains even close to what it was last year, these types of deadline deals are serious money makers.

    T

  12. jon says:

    Some news today: McDonald is signed and we picked up an enforcer for the Falcons. Odds of Stortini being on the big team on the 4th line or PB duty just got upped a notch.

  13. Black Dog says:

    I think this team has a lot better chance at a top five pick then a lot of people think. Remember folks – top goal scorer amongst the forwards had 16 goals. There is not a lot separating these guys from the bottom feeders – Phoenix, Chicago and NYI, imo.

    All it will take is a couple of guys to go down and Stoll, Moreau and Staios all were down for prolonged periods last year. Throw in Souray who was healthy last year for the first time in a long time and Hemsky who had a couple of problems as well and its a recipe for disaster.

  14. Big T says:

    BDHS;

    Even if the Oilers are a guaranteed lottery pick – and I don’t disagree that they couldn’t be – the signed offer sheet for Vanek WAS a good move given that the odds of getting Tavares (if he’s even eligible this year) would still only be around 20-30%.

    Add in the other two players and you still only have that lottery ticket with a 60-70% chance. For this to be a clearly profitable move you have to believe that Tavares is well clear of FIVE times the hockey player that Vanek is or combined these guys are guaranteed to be about 150% the player that Vanek was. For any other offer sheet you’d be making, that player would have to be that much less of a player in your eyes as well. I don’t see that being the case.

    People are way over-valuing these picks and as they say, “Just dreamin’ on these guys!”

    FWIW I think Parise qualifies as one of the guys who’s not worth making the offer sheet on. He’s just not the player they say he is.

    T

  15. uni says:

    I don’t know, if the Oilers stay relatively healthy I think they finish out of th playoffs but high enough to be out of the lottery.

    So…should I be rooting for them to win or to lose every game?

  16. Black Dog says:

    t – oh I was on board with the Vanek offer, I just don’t think this team is going anywhere this year

    uni – that’s a silly question – if they go 98 and 0 then they will be the best team in history – why would you not root for that?

  17. jerk clown says:

    BD – Based on the tough early schedule I can’t see them going any better than 93-5.

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