Andrew Cogliano as an NHL Player

Is that guy in the front row wearing a HELMET? Jeebus buddy, that’s not a good look for us guys who were given the big craniums. His wife should have picked up on that and told him, poor fellow.

Anyway, Andrew Cogliano.

He’s one of very few Oilers forward prospects (Trukhno, O’Marra, maybe Nash) who have a wide range of skills. He’s undersized, but on the other side of the ledger is speed, stickhandling, passing skills, ability to see the ice well, and on it goes. There’s not much he does on the ice that I’ve read or seen to cause concern.

He had a very good junior season in college and signed a pro contract after two seasons, which is what pretty much all the really good ones do. The Oilers have called him “Marchant with hands” which is a shot at Marchant but if Cogliano can have a similar career I don’t think anyone should complain. Marchant has done things to help his team win for a long time in the highest league available.

Andrew Cogliano’s indicators are all flashing green (as in go). At 19 years old, he scored 38gp, 24-26-50 +7 on 89 shots with Michigan. At 18, Mike Cammalleri scored 42gp, 29-32-61 +29 on 162 shots with Michigan, which implies that Cogliano isn’t quite in the same offensive range as Cammalleri (all things being equal). In terms of size and what we read, they have many other things in common so it’s a nice visual comp if a reach in terms of stats.

Cammalleri spent large portions of his first two pro seasons in the AHL (playing well) and ripped it up in the lockout season. When the NHL returned, he emerged as a genuine talent and at this time we don’t have an established level of ability because the arrow keeps moving up each season. His 06-07 season was splendid. At 25, he’s a guy the Kings can count on for years to come.

If we use Cammalleri as a comp and nick Cogliano some homers and ribbies, and add some fine play without the puck, is that fair? If we say a 65 point center who is a solid two-way player with speed whose only blemish is size, would that be fair?

One thing we can say about Andrew Cogliano that makes him somewhat unique among current Oilers’ prospects? His resume reads like the foundation a legit NHL player.

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12 Responses to "Andrew Cogliano as an NHL Player"

  1. Yanner39 says:

    LT,

    Do you think Cogliano has a chance tomake this team out of camp or do you think some time playing alot of minutes in Springfield is needed?

  2. Big T says:

    I’d personally think that at AT LEAST half a season of time in Springfield is a must for Cogliano. Don’t forget, this isn’t a player that’s even used to the number of games a major junior player would have faced. He’s playing a lot less games in the NCAA. Give the guy time to learn the little things.

    One thing that isn’t mentioned is TOI for Cammaleri and Cogliano. Is it possible that either player got a good deal more ice than the other? Was Michigan the same quality of team in 2000 as it was in 2006? Just looking for additional context.

    T

  3. Ribs says:

    I know enough from last year to not get my hopes up for top prospects making the team from camp.

    Winny and Toby may be gone but JF Titanic (as LT would call him) and Tugboat Thoresen are still going to take spots. Throw in Pouliot and the docks’s nearly full.

    Nilsson seems to be first in line for the next dingy so the chances of Cogliano, Schremp, or Gagner making the cut is as slim as it’s ever been in my eyes.

    Which sucks.

  4. jon says:

    Big T: Cammalleri would have seen significantly more ice time than Cogs, who played on the second ES line and was switched between the 1st and 2nd PP unit.

    However, like LT I do think that Cogliano projects to be a Horcoff-type player. He’s smart, he’s fast, and has moderate offensive and defensive talent. It’d be nice if we had another player like him (in their prime) on the current roster.

  5. digger says:

    One thing that isn’t mentioned is TOI for Cammaleri and Cogliano. Is it possible that either player got a good deal more ice than the other? Was Michigan the same quality of team in 2000 as it was in 2006? Just looking for additional context.

    I can’t add much, but Cammalleri was a 2 man wrecking crew, playing LW with Andy Hilbert as his C during his 18 yr old season. I’m sure he was getting 1st line icetime and PP love.

    At 19, Cogliano was playing 2nd line C since it was still TJ Hensick as the alpha male center there. I also don’t think he saw the 1st unit PP that frequently.

    That gives a *bit* of context to the numbers, but there’s still a lot of murk to work through.

    Regardless, if Cogliano is going to become a threat to be a top 2 line NHL forward given his size, I would expect him to be scoring at a PPG+ rate in the AHL out of the gate. We’ll see what happens.

  6. Lord Bob says:

    Todd Marchant didn’t have bad hands against college-level goalies either. Sheer speed and smarts can get you a lot against mediocre players, and in the World Juniors and other higher-level competitions I have begun to worry that he’s got two cinder blocks on the ends of his arms.

    Unfortunately, I think we may be stuck with a speedy, reliable player who doesn’t make mistakes and may be a premier shutdown guy in the NHL for years to come while chipping in with his share of second-line-level assists here and there. I am sorely disappointed.

    (note: I’m not actually disappointed in the least.)

  7. digger says:

    Lord Bob, I mostly agree with your take on Cogs.

    The one caveat I would add though, is that in last year’s World Juniors Cogliano had the misfortune of being continually paired with Steve Downie, who was a total puck hog the entire series. They didn’t work well at all together, yet Sutter kept throwing them over the boards, joined at the hip. IMO Cogliano got a bit of an unjust rap in that tournament.

    I do share your concern with his scoring prowess, though. IMO he’s a better natural playmaker than Marchant ever was however, that skill alone might elevate him above the bottom 6 checker role.

    It’ll be interesting to see who he develops chemistry with during camp and in his rookie AHL season.

  8. Black Dog says:

    I think if he can earn a spot in the top nine then he sticks but otherwise no way. That would mean outplaying Pouliot, Sanderson and maybe Thoresen to get onto that third line. Possible, maybe, but unlikely.

    Better to get ABs in Springfield then play five minutes a game or sit in the pressbox. No point in that.

  9. oilerdiehard says:

    Big T – I watched about 20 Michigan games last season. Berenson went very traditional and the senior players got the lions share of ice.

    In other words that is heavy rotation for the Porter-Hensick-Rohlfs line. I also noticed Berenson probably with the hang over of the previous year, cut back Cogliano’s ice for a number of games after his return from World Juniors. Then back to normal down the stretch.

    By the way the second half of the season Cogs was just awesome IMO. He seemed to be making great plays at both ends of the ice every shift and took his game to another level.

    I remember watching after WJC and at one point he had 12 goals in 11 games and was hella fun to watch. Opposition tv announcers just could not seem to rave enough about him.

  10. IceDragoon says:

    digger…

    I hope you and yours are well. :-)

    Craig Hartsburg coached the Juniors this past year. Sutter made Cogs focus on a defensive game for ’06, tho. We can thank him for that.

    Funny thing is, Cogliano was on a line with Downey and Marchand till his shoot-out goal against the USA in the semis. Hartsburg switched him with Towes for the gold medal game. Cogs got the first goal of the game, ES, with assists to his new linemates, O’Marra and Pyatt.

    L8r

  11. digger says:

    Hey Louise, everyone’s good around here. The kids are fine, though I’m finding as they increase in age (13/12/11/10), their byzantine blots against my rule increase in complexity proportionally. :)

    It’s like my own little game of Survivor: Elk Point.

    Thanks for the clarifications on some obvious errors on my part, I’d clean forgotten that Hartsburg was the coach last season, and that Cogs was on the Toews line for the Gold medal game.

  12. Dennis says:

    If he’s good enough to stick, I think he’ll stick. He’s a MacT guy, as Pouliot and same as Thor and if he can play in the top nine, I think they keep him and if that means maybe making 78 available to package along with a D for a guy who can score goals in the top six, then I think it’s something the Oilers will do.

    I think he’s gonna be a helluva PKer and he’ll be an outscorer but I’m not totally sold on his offensive potential. And that’s not me looking at his PPG at a certain age or anything like that, it’s just from watching him at the WHC and all the huge scoring opps he’d blow.

    I just don’t know if you ever really develop finish. But I do agree with Digger that if he’s ever gonna be able to score at the big leauge level, you’ll need to see him at a PPG in his first year in the A. Much like Horc was before he got the call

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