D Day

The Edmonton Oilers find out today whether or not Dustin Penner’s offer sheet will be matched by the world champion Anaheim Ducks.

In terms of value, this is a no-brainer decision. Penner’s new number on his contract added to the fact that there are three draft picks in the package (one of which should be at the very least a top 10 pick and might be a lottery selection in deep, deep draft) make keeping him unattractive for Anaheim.

For the Oilers, it’s all about this season. After the disasters that came after the beauty run to the final and the well documented frustration in the trade and free agency markets, Kevin Lowe needed to do something and well hell he sure did it.

As I understand the process, Burke can do one of three things today:

  1. Hold a press conference to announce he’s matched the contract, or release a statement stating same.
  2. Hold a press conference to announce he’s letting Penner go to Edmonton, or release a statement stating same.
  3. Let the deadline (apparently noon somewhere on the continent) pass and then he’s the Oilers problem.

I’m too cheap to bet but my Monopoly money (I call the top hat!) is on Burke letting the deadline slip away and then holding a press conference later in which he details the quality of the 10 best amateurs eligible for the 2008 draft.

The Oilers will likely hold a press conference too, and I believe they’ll make a trade on top of it. If you’re going to have an elite level “soft parade” line, is Shawn Horcoff the best option at center with Penner and Hemsky on the wings?

I don’t think so. Hello Marc Savard, hello Mike Cammalleri.

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19 Responses to "D Day"

  1. Ribs says:

    Hello, Patrik Elias!

    *wishful thinking*

  2. Shadow says:

    I’m still hoping its the Kovalchuk rumors that end up being true.

  3. namflashback says:

    Well, I intuit the same thing that Louise has — if Lowe’s plan A was Nylander-Kariya — Horcoff’s salary was going out the door — and we were going with a primarily checking line setup.

    I doubt that strategy has changed. However, I think its way too early to make a Horcoff-Stoll decision — since it depends on MP’s next step and Jarrett’s health. They would be taking a huge risk if they did.

  4. Joe says:

    LT, you’re not getting Cammalleri unless he gets a arbitration award in excess of 5.5 million. The entire issue for the Kings is that Cammalleri wants to be paid like the definitive #1 guy on the team, and while he was this past year, the Kings know that Frolov and Kopitar will soon knock him off that perch, and they don’t want to be giving #1 type money to their #3 guy. They’ll definitely take his arbitration award, as long as it isn’t somewhere in the upper atmosphere, and give it a year to get a clearer picture of what they’re working with.

  5. doritogrande says:

    I don’t think Savard would be the answer, unless Hemsky somehow managed to learn how to shoot in the offseason. Sure Savard is a quality number one centre, but he isn’t what the Oilers need. Cammalleri might be the better option because he doesn’t always think pass-first and has good footspeed.

    Personally, and I realize his name is becoming more and more overkill, I hope for Patrick Marleau. He can keep up to Hemsky, and knows what it takes to finish a play in the big leagues. Leadership qualities to replace Horcoffs will also be needed and Marleau fits that bill too.

    If we get Penner, I’ve got a feeling that we’re done for the offseason. I know Lowe’s trying desperately to save his hide, but he’s done enough for one offseason. If they want to give the checking line a shot this year, what’s wrong with giving Horcoff the heavy lifting and call up one of the young snipers to fill number one centre? Would Robert Nilsson be hindered by playing his natural position? Could Cogliano become the next Travis Zajac? If given the number one position, could Schremp prove he’s worth it?

  6. Loxy says:

    I’m not looking forward to hearing that we have Penner. Cause I think that’s all we’ll have.

  7. oilrrrs says:

    at least we have hot red head oiler fans loxy

  8. Jordan says:

    I’d be jumping off the walls if they got Cammalleri

  9. Loxy says:

    I don’t think it’s an “if” we get Penner anymore.

    Mirtle is saying he’s ours.

  10. Black Dog says:

    He is.

    Lowe had better be right.

  11. Dennis says:

    On the one hand I can see your opinion of whether or not you want Horc anchoring the soft min line while 78-16 pull the real ES mail at pivot but then again, what are the other options? If we’re dealing Horc for a soft min guy, I’d imagine it’s gonna be for a guy making even more money and that will put us tight to the cap altogether.

    Is that something that might interest the EIG? I doubt it.

    The only thing that might happen is Horc out and Weiss in where the latter gets signed to a longterm deal at say 3.5 mill but that still doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. You can say that Horc’s offense was 94 dependant but if he could score against the Sakic’s, why couldn’t he rape the Koivu’s? Plus he kills penalties and has done some good work on the PP and he can take back the tough min of 16-78 can’t handle them.

    I’m gonna tie this altogether now and say that the Penner deal doesn’t kill me as much just as long as we don’t deal off Horc in a salary dump. Once the Oilers improved their PP by signing Souray, I believe they moved themselves out of lottery comp so that point you have to ask yourself, is the 1st rounder we were gonna nab ever gonna be as good as a Penner? maybe so but it wasn’t exactly a slam dunk either.

    If you really wanted to harp on this pick and make something of it, then you wouldn’t improve your PP by picking up Souray and you’d just go on the super cheap and really try and tank it. Edm clearly wasn’t prepared to do it so then if you aren’t gonna win big at the June draft, why not take a flyer on Penner? Maybe there’s someone out there that was a better target but I don’t believe it was such an overpay $$$ wise and I don’t believe that the pick was as valuable once Souray was signed.

    So for now, I guess it’s 18-78-34 carrying the mail with Penner-14-16-83-10 to feast on 4-9. I keep saying that and it places a big responsbility on Pouliot, and especially in the faceoff circle, so we could see 10 taking D-zone draws with those wingers and then changing on the fly when the zone’s cleared.

  12. dave says:

    I still believe another trade will come soon. Pitkanen + Pisani or Torres + ? for top flight shooter. A trade like that still moves us forward. Moving anything up the middle puts huge pressure on the signings and the pouliots (unless he (78) is moved in lieu of Pisani/Torres). I think this team is close to making the playoffs.

  13. godot10 says:

    //I hope for Patrick Marleau. He can keep up to Hemsky, and knows what it takes to finish a play in the big leagues. Leadership qualities to replace Horcoffs will also be needed and Marleau fits that bill too.//

    Re: Marleau
    Vanishing in the playoffs two years in a row when the going got tough with Joe Thornton playing the toughest opposition checkers? That is leadership?

  14. Big T says:

    I just pray that Lowe makes no further moves before he is moved on.

    I have no problem with the offer sheet, as typically the player is much greater than the payoff. Vanek is a special player… Penner is not. And on top of that, he’s making $4.25MM over 5 yrs.

    If this team is to be competitive, we had better hope that this season’t PP is the real deal. If not, we’re in trouble.

    I’ve long defended Lowe and thought there must be some method to his moves. This off-season proves to me there is not.

    T

  15. Big T says:

    Under Lowe and the EIG, we are the Leafs.

    T

  16. jerk clown says:

    I still don’t know who is gonna score goals on this team…Lowe hinted that a lot of players had off years last year and he’s looking for them to bounce back. Scary proposition. Although he also said they have “too many” assets on the back end so something will happen between now and camp to get another forward in. I hope.

  17. voxel says:

    Unlike the Leafs, the Oilers are much younger with higher potential.

  18. danny says:

    Draft picks are nolonger a means to achieve production beyond contract value. In order to get a player than can contribute before his entry level contract is up, he likely must fall within the top 5 available talent… and these guys including bonuses usually are immediately a $3M cap hit. If they become an impact player after their entry level contract, welcome to the new RFA landscape. They are getting paid with comparables such as Derek Roy making $4M per season plus bonuses.

    Not to mention the chances of that first pick being an impact player at all in his career is very unclear when you have no clue where you are even drafting. As dennis said, with the additions on defense, its likely not in the top 5 regardless.

    Finally on this subject, regarding the money. Escalating the pay scale for RFAs only does immense service to the Oilers moving forward. The pool of free agents each season just increased immensely. As long as you can successfully target the proper talent, avoid bad contracts, you are picking up an impact player per season for the sake of the draft picks. Can you say the same about the draft? And that pretty much brings us full circle on draft picks not being a cheap means to be succesful anymore… with the excption of rare cases when you get 1 or 2 seasons of players outperforming their contract. Like Getzlaf, ideal example… you luck out on a stud in the mid 1st round, you avoid paying him $3M per season incl bonuses like his higher draft class, and you enjoy it for 2 seasons max until hes a $5M+ player.

    Things have changed. My only worries are if Penner is going to be a player… the money and draft picks are really not a problem at all… do it again next year… and the year after…

  19. IceDragoon says:

    Good evening, Lain & all.

    Dibs on the race car. If you’d ever been my passenger you’d now have a smile on your face and a healthy dose of perspective. ;-D

    OK now… repeat after me.

    “Dustin Penner is an Oiler because MacTavish wanted him.”

    And on that note add this thought…
    MacT wants to win a Stanley Cup as much as KLo does. This attitude will rub off, you know. :-D

    I’ll start forming some personal opinions on the 6’4″, 240+lb, smart, hard on the puck, LW with a deft shot, acquired to play with Hemsky… at training camp. Till then I’ll try to find some articles on his solid character and tremendous progress over the last 5 years. I think I’ll start by googling Scott Taylor. ;-D

    You know I’m big on prospects, Lain. I get a thrill out of watching them progress. It’s not quite the same as watching my children (and the hordes of teenagers who seemingly moved in over the last 2 decades) develop into fine young adults. But, hockey is my passion, so Oilers kids are pretty special to me.

    That said…
    No matter how good the ’08 draft is, the picks are futures and will not contribute with Hemsky for at least a few years.

    imho – We are a Dvorak clone + maybe a RD tweak away from having a team that can contend for a road playoff spot this year. They may take a few learning lumps and need a little luck, but I expect MacT & co will get a decent team game out of this group for a stretch run.

    On Horcoff… I’m with Dennis (it happens;-), as you can tell by my comments earlier.

    namflashback…
    I had my suspicions after the Smytty trade, but I believe you were the first to write about the probabilities of MacT going away from PvP, reinforcing my opinion of your intelligence. ;-D

    ………

    fwiw – Burke is an egotistical bully, who is crying and flinging **** because someone dared to stand up to him.

    L8r
    Louise

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