How many points will Ales Hemsky get this year? How many could he get if everything broke right? It’s an interesting question, and I think increasingly is central to the Oilers immediate success. As goes Hemsky (and the PP), so go the Oilers for 07-08.
Over his last three NHL seasons, Hemsky’s record looks like this:
- 03-04 71gp, 12-22-34, .479ppg
- 05-06 81gp, 19-58-77, .951ppg
- 06-07 64gp, 13-40-53 .828ppg
Hemsky’s three year average in 82gp form would be 17-45-62, but that’s probably too low because of his 03-04 season and limited minutes (icetime for those three seasons is 14:26,16:58, 16:59 and that’s without factoring in EV/PP). Averaging the last two seasons would get you 18-56-74 which seems a little more like it since it takes out the deadball era season.
Other factors include:
- no Smyth on LW
- Hemsky may be playing softer EV minutes this season.
- Hemsky’s PP time per 60 total went down last season compared to 05-06 (5:02 per night during the 05-06 season, 4:18 last year).
- More PP tools in this lineup than a year ago.
In the last two seasons, Hemsky has gone 7-35-42 in 05-06 and 5-20-25 in 06-07 with the man advantage. His powerplay points-per 60min total was 6.17 in 05-06 and 5.45 this past season.
How much better than that does Hemsky need to be on the PP to get this team into the playoffs? Does he need to be in the top 5 in powerplay assists (Crosby 48, Thornton 44, Savard 39, Jagr and Henrik Sedin 34)? Does he need to do more? As an aside, Hemsky was 4th in PP assists in 05-06, behind only Thornton, Brad Richards and Savard. Does Hemsky need to post 50 assists on the powerplay in order for this team to make the playoffs?