Marc Pouliot as an NHL Player

I’ve done a ton of “comps” for Pouliot since 2003 and Jarret Stoll has been a very strong comparable. Stoll has a terrific shot, Pouliot does not and that alone probably means Stoll will have more offense in his career than MAP (Stoll is also a good passer and has very good secondary skills like FO %).

Still, if the comps have held true all down the line then we might expect them to hold true for the future.

Here are the Gabriel Desjardins’ NHL equivalencies by age (year) and then the NHL totals as they both make the grade.

These are per 82gp, and as with all Desjardins’ NHLE numbers, one assumes the player would be airlifted onto an NHL roster with the same quality linemates, TOI and PP/PK time.

Age 17:
Stoll 13-13-26 (.317) (jr)
Pouliot 11-15-26 (.317) (jr)

Age 18:
Stoll 16-26-42 (.512) (jr)
Pouliot 14-18-32 (.390) (jr)

Age 19:
Stoll 17-18-35 (.427) (jr)
Pouliot 15-22-37 (.451) (jr)

Age 20:
Stoll 11-18-29 (.354) (AHL)
Pouliot 9-19-28 (.341) (AHL)

Age 21:
Stoll NHL numbers 68gp, 10-11-21 (.309)
Pouliot NHL numbers 46gp, 4-7-11 (.239)

Since we now have some direct NHL numbers for comparison, let’s do that. Pouliot as a 21 year old rookie up against Stoll at the same age.

Stoll ES points-per-60mins: 1.39
Pouliot ES points-per-60mins: 1.17

Stoll PP points-per-60mins: 2.95
Pouliot PP points-per-60mins: 1.11

The Oilers had a better offense when Stoll was a rookie (221-192). Pouliot got more PP time (really) than Stoll during their rookie seasons, but the sample size is so small I don’t think we can really read too much into it (Stoll had 2 points in 40PP minutes, Pouliot had 1 point in 54PP minutes).

The comp still looks pretty good to me, considering the train wreck that was the Oilers team during the stretch run. Pouliot has not proven he can put up enough offense to be considered a top 6F option, but if we are to believe Desjardins’ he’s a lot closer to Stoll’s offense than it might appear at this time.

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10 Responses to "Marc Pouliot as an NHL Player"

  1. Steve says:

    I don’t have anything to say on the substance of your post (except good job, and interesting reading, and all those things that apply to pretty well all of your posts), but I’m astonished at the powerful negative emotional reaction that that picture of Lupul evoked in me. Deep down, I think I might blame the entire 2006-2007 season on him.

  2. Lowetide says:

    lol. He always has that eeyore look on his face, doesn’t he? By the end of the season it was impossible to defend him, but I tried dammit.

  3. mc79hockey says:

    The Eeyore look. I spent thousands of words between December and April trying to say what you’ve said in three.

  4. rstahl says:

    one assumes the player would be airlifted onto an NHL roster with the same quality linemates, TOI and PP/PK time.

    This is kind of a nit-picky question LT, but where do you pull this assumption from? In Desjardin’s paper on League Equivalencies (, his method is to simply take all the players NHL PPG in year 2, and divide it by their AHL PPG in year 1, and average it out. Perhaps I’m missing something, but doesn’t that lead to the assumption that icetime, teammates etc are not constant? I would expect your average call-up to be playing 1st line and 1st PP time in the AHL, and 3rd-4th line and maybe 2nd PP time in the NHL.

    In fact, I’d posit the opposite, that part of the equivalency modifier is due to less icetime with (relatively) worse team mates. When rookies come in and exceed expectations, it’s not necessarily because of ‘skill’, its at least partly because of situation – see Statsny, Paul.

  5. Lowetide says:

    rstahl: Gabriel’s 2004 report addressed this, I’ll try to find it.

    IF he doesn’t see it as being “all other outside forces are equal” then it’s not as accurate as I’d hoped it would be, simply because you cannot properly adjust for those forces in any kind of organized way.

    I suspect if Gabriel were to have the jr and AHL TOI he’d get into that stuff, but there’s simply no way to estimate it imo.

    Desjardins’ NHLE is still a guess, but an educated one based on “what we know”. If we start adding “what we think we might know” then it’s a slippery slope to “this is useless.”

  6. Bank Shot says:

    Jarret Stoll’s NHL production marches pretty far out of step from his AHL numbers in a very positive way.

    Nothing about Stoll’s AHL numbers suggest 60-70 point NHL center.

    I’m not sure it’s fair to project that abnormal career arc onto Pouliot.

  7. Josh says:

    Don’t forget that Pouliot played on a terrible team (one of the worst in the Q IRC) until crosby showed up and airlifted them to the memorial cup.

    I agree that Stoll does have that one great asset (his shot) that it seems most top 6 players need. But Pouliot appears to be a better playmaker with good vision. And he has those other intangibles like FO % (not sure about his NHL numbers) and a chance to be a great 2 way center.

  8. rstahl says:

    Thanks LT, I took a look around, and was only able to find that one article with google.

    IF he doesn’t see it as being “all other outside forces are equal” then it’s not as accurate as I’d hoped it would be

    I’m not trying to destroy your faith here :). I still think it is a very accurate line in the sand, I’m interested in finding players and situations in which they may outperform their NHL equivalency.

    Sticking with Colorado, I was comparing Wolski with Stastny.

    Wolski, OHL, Expected: 0.69 PPG, Actual: 0.66

    Stastny, NCAA, Exp: 0.45 PPG, Act: 0.95 PPG

    Wolski’s number is pretty much bang on, but wtf is with Stastny – did he train with Barry Bonds over the summer?

    Well, using, Wolski played 61.9% of his time with Hejduk, against the 6th toughest competition on his team. Stastny played 69.1% of his time with Hejduk against the 8th toughest competition on the Avs. That seems pretty comparable, slightly in Stastny’s favour, but doesn’t explain away the discrepancy.

    However, Stastny played more than 100 min more PP time than Wolski. Stastny’s top PP teammates were Sakic, Brunette, Hejduk, and Liles. Wolski’s were Sakic, Stastny, Clark, and Liles.

    Hmm guess I haven’t found the difference between these two. I’m actually at a loss to explain why Wolski got outperformed by Stastny. I knew Stastny had great EV line mates and great PP time, but Wolski had just as good linemates at EV, and was only a bit worse off on the PP.

    I have a feeling that the devil is in the details here. I’d guess that when Stastny wasn’t playing with Hejduk, he got Sakic, and when Wolski wasn’t with Sakic, he got Turgeon.

    I don’t know about league wide, but this is a lot different than how the Oilers traditionally break in their rookies. Both players were put in a great position to succeed.

    Drawing a parallel with the Oilers, I see some hope that one of Pouliot, Nilsson or Schremp could come in and shoot out the lights if they were given quality line mates like Stoll and Torres or Pisani, and given cherry minutes on the PP. I’d include Brodziak, Thoresen and Jacques, but I don’t see them getting any significant PP time.

  9. rstahl says:

    Wolski played 61.9% of his time with Hejduk

    That should read: Wolski played 61.9% of his time with Sakic

  10. Dennis says:

    Yeah, it’s sad Steve because I pretty much thought the same thing. I love me some Pouliot but I saw that picture and I was thinking, Man oh fucking man didn’t I ever hate the Lupul era.

    Not since Salo had I hated a guy that much and the more money a fellow makes and/or wastes, the more the stomach churns.

    It would be interesting to see how well MP could handle the tough min if the Oilers had enough depth where they could have him pivot 18-34. I mean, maybe that’s the case if SOK, Son of Kenta, gets time with 14-16 and Penner-10-83 stays together and if that’s the case, then MP and his line are gonna take on at least the second toughest min.

    There’s just no question about that.

    I waver back and forth on his offensive abilities, there were games like the one in TO and the one in Ottawa and a HNIC tilt vs Cgy where he looked like he knew what he was doing with the puck and maybe I’m being too hard on him. I doubt he’ll post many seasons over say 50 points but if he’s a 20-40 guy and he’s doing it agianst tough min, then the guy’s fucking gold and fellows like SOK and Schremp can get to laddy-dah on the PP and make their difference there.

    There’s no doubt that MP’s a real dealer though. Just watch what he does away from the puck and in his own zone and you can see he’ll be no worst than a bonafide top sixer against tough EV min.

    And there’s certainly a value in that.

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