Riesen to Believe (2)

I did this in August (Monday the 6th) and figured it is time to do it again.

I’ve reduced this edition to an easier to follow group (actually I reduced it by one). There are some guys on the original list that are extremely unlikely to be on the parent club’s training camp roster (which should be official and published tomorrow).

Anyway, here’s my list.

Guys with ZERO chance to make the Oilers
  1. RW David Rohlfs, 23: There is some buzz about the college forwards in this camp (McDonald and Paukovich specifically) but Rohlfs is a guy who probably ends up in the AHL early in camp.
  2. LW Liam Reddox, 21: Would need to have an incredible camp to stay past week one imo, he does have a nice mix of grit and “pestiness” (not to be confused with pesting) from reports I’ve read on him.
  3. LW Stephane Goulet, 21: Big winger scored 15 goals in the ECHL last season. I don’t think there are 20 Oiler fans who really know the difference between Stephane Goulet and Liam Reddox, and I’m not one of the 20.
  4. LW Tim Sestito, 23: 2-way winger with grit who hasn’t played much in the AHL since turning pro.
  5. C Fredrik Johansson, 23: Apparently has shown well very early this fall, he’s a guy who might last a little longer than normal because he was sent away so quickly last season (first cut, due to a misunderstanding with his Swedish club).
  6. D Theo Peckham, 19: All positive reports on this guy, all he’s lacking is experience and that’s what he’ll get in the minors this season. He can’t get into NHL action this season, because the Oilers signed two thousand defensemen in the offseason.
  7. RW Troy Bodie, 22: Huge winger got into 14 AHL games last season and he should play the entire year on the AHL farm team in 07-08.
  8. D T.J. Kemp, 26: Oilers signed him July 17. He’s an AHL defender. He’s a depth signing for the new AHL farm club.
  9. G Glenn Fisher, 24: .919SP in college this past season, and he’ll be the only first year pro among the Oilers’ goalie prospects.
  10. D Allan Rourke, 26: He’s played over 400 AHL games and 42 in the NHL (11 last year), he would have played 50 NHL games if he’d been an Oiler farmhand one year ago.
  11. D Bryan Young, 21: MacTavish likes him.
  12. G Jeff Deslauriers, 23: He’s buried now at the NHL level.
  13. D Danny Syvret, 22: Is now pretty much buried for this upcoming season.
  14. D Sebastian Bisaillon, 20: He has a quality shot and does some nice things. I don’t want to get ahead of myself here (like THAT’S happened ever!) but his career is somewhat similar at the lower levels to MA Bergeron’s.
  15. RW Colin McDonald, 23: Oilers signed him to a 2-year entry level contract on July 17. He’s a coke machine who might end up putting up better results than he did in college. Scored a goal tonight in the Rookies-Golden Bears game.
  16. G Devan Dubnyk, 21: .921SP as a rookie pro was 3rd best in the ECHL. Played in the Rookies-Golden Bears game tonight and apparently played well.

Guys with Less than 10% Chance to make the Oilers

  1. LW Ryan Flinn, 27: Signed a one year deal July 17, here’s a guy who I can see playing a few games in the NHL this season.
  2. C Tyler Spurgeron, 21: I’d actually give him a better chance to make the Oilers if he were a year or two older (or if the Oilers didn’t already have Brodziak on the roster).
  3. LW Slava Trukhno, 20: I can hardly wait to see this guy play. He got into two pre-season games a year ago, and impressed many at the Golden Bears game. He had a tremendous amount of PP time in the same game tonight and came up dry.
  4. C Jonas Almtorp, 23: He’s the Euro Thoresen for this camp I’d say.
  5. LW JF Jacques, 22: He made the big club a year ago and didn’t take advantage of the opportunity. I’d bet he starts the year in the AHL and is recalled after ripping it up.
  6. C Ryan O’Marra, 20: He’s healthy and ready to go, but I think the Oilers will go another direction (at least to start the season).
  7. D Tom Gilbert, 24- A “perfect storm” offseason for the Oilers appears to have robbed him of his first real NHL shot.

Guys with Less than a 50% Chance of Making the Oilers

  1. C Sam Gagner: He had zero chance on my last list, but Sweatyo suggested that he was a better bet than that and I know speeds felt the same. The Oilers are a little bit about exciting the fanbase this fall and Gagner is very famous after the CDA-USSR series.
  2. D Mathieu Roy, 24- One thing he has going for him is that his skillset fits nicely with the Oilers most pressing need on D.
  3. C Rob Schremp, 21: MacT said that other day that he felt that one of Schremp, Gagner or Cogliano would have to make the team or it would be a big disappoinment (I’m paraphrasing here).
  4. C Andrew Cogliano, 20: Of all the first year pro’s, Cogliano has the best shot imo to make the team out of camp.

Guys with Better than 50% Chance of Making the Oilers

  1. RW Zack Stortini, 22 in Sept: Pretty much all his arrows are pointing in the right direction.
  2. D Denis Grebeshkov, 23: Physical player who can move the puck, he has a nice range of skills and has a one way deal.

The Locks

  1. LW Robert Nilsson, 22: He looks to be the guy who will get first shot at the 2line minutes this fall.
  2. C Kyle Brodziak, 23: After the Pisani injury, I don’t know how they can keep him off the team.

Opening Night Lineup 07-08

  • Goal: Roloson, Garon
  • First Pairing: Pitkanen-Staios
  • Second Pairing: Souray, Tarnstrom
  • Third Pairing: Smid-Greene
  • Extra: Grebeshkov
  • 1line: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
  • 2line: Stoll-Torres-Nilsson
  • 3line: Reasoner-Moreau-Pouliot
  • 4line: Brodziak-Thoresen-Sanderson
  • Extras: Cogliano, Stortini

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20 Responses to "Riesen to Believe (2)"

  1. doritogrande says:

    Do you really think it’d be worthwhile to have Cogliano as a PB guy in his rookie year? I don’t.

    If I’m Lowe/MacT, I keep Cogliano in Springfield until an injury in the top-9 opens up a spot for him, go with 13 forwards and 8 defenders on the opening day roster to save Roy from the hazards of waivers. It doesn’t seem right to me to have a prospect up in the box stagnating when he can be playing 20+ minutes a night down on the farm learning the NHL-style game.

  2. Lowetide says:

    dorito: Well I don’t think Nilsson keeps the RW job to be honest. Sanderson too is a candidate for both 2line and PB.

    What the Oilers really need is for Cogliano to win the RW race in camp.

  3. doritogrande says:

    LT, what you say about Cogliano sounds like wishful thinking at best. Were he to win a RW job, who does he replace?

    Nilsson?
    Pouliot?

    How screwed will this team be with up to 3 young centremen playing RW on the Oilers this year? I think MacT might up and quit the Oil to save his sanity.

  4. jon says:

    Went to the game tonight, pretty disappointing overall. Some notes I came away with:

    Cogliano looked much like he did at the WJCs, his speed helps him create things but he can’t pull off moves at high speed and his wrist shot accuracy really leaves something to be desired. Got clobbered a few times but he should probably get used to it.

    Peckham is going to be an NHLer at some point. He’s smart, surprisingly fast, and mean. I think he’s probably now my second favourite Oiler prospect and certainly the favourite defender.

    Trukhno comes across as a competent passer who knows how to play on the PP, but that’s about it. He’s not overly fast (a generous evaluation), doesn’t seem to strain himself much, and isn’t as big as Guy’s reports of a possible “power forward” would suggest. He was completely invisible when not on the PP. Buchy put him on the point on the PP pretty consistently.

    Bisaillon started really badly, and only improved slightly as the game went on, mostly on the PP. He has a good shot from the point but right now does not look like a player. Mostly noticeable for being clumsy and making bad decisions, often leading to turnovers. Did take the body a few times.

    Plante looked like an 18 year old playing against older players, but there is some potential there. Has a decent shot and has more poise than expected, though there were some gaffs.

    Quist has size and some decent hands. Has raw talent but looked lost sometimes and didn’t seem to look for the pass to open players. Lost the puck a few times trying to pull off some moves.

    O’Marra had some good and some bad in the game. He had two shifts by my count where he dominated the game, controlling the puck and actually distributing it at the opportune time. Took a few bad penalties though.

    McDonald could be a player. His wrist shot was an absolute bullet on the goal from his off-wing, but oddly enough other shots he made weren’t powerful at all. He dished a few good hits and seemed like a solid player. Doesn’t really have good offensive instincts though, sort of reminds me of Pisani in that regard.

    McGinnis seemed like he could be a decent AHL defender at some point.

    Pepe wasn’t noticeable except when he caused the second Bears goal.

    Foreman was a bit of an agitator with some good tenacity. Not much else there.

    Kytnar was not noticeable except when a play died on his stick on a 2-on-1, didn’t pass or shoot.

    Paukovich didn’t really stand out.

    That’s all I can remember for specific players but all-in-all it was a pretty boring game with only 2 or 3 good hits and not a lot of offensive ability on display. Dubnyk and Fisher were solid but there were not a lot of good offensive chances coming their way.

  5. digger says:

    Plante looked like an 18 year old playing against older players, but there is some potential there. Has a decent shot and has more poise than expected, though there were some gaffs.

    Plante didn’t play tonight, he has a bad back according to Buchberger’s interview w/ Stauffer earlier in the day.

  6. jon says:

    In that case replace my comments regarding Plante with the player who was wearing #10. None of the players had named jerseys obviously so I went by the roster and numbers handed out there.

  7. digger says:

    Fair enough, in that case you were probably watching Bretton Stamler, who was Plante’s replacement according to the Oilers website.

  8. James L. says:

    After reading all the great things about Trukhno and Cogliano here, tonight’s game was kind of a disappointment. I was expecting a lot more. Neither were bad (Cogliano had a few impressive plays), but Cogliano made a mistake or two.

    Glenn Fisher was a nice surprise. He made some good saves. Bears goaltending was rock solid.

  9. Pat says:

    LT,

    Are you SURE about Liam Reddox’s chances? I mean, there must be a reason that somebody pulled this kid from the stands and slapped a jersey on him.

    http://oilers.nhl.com/team/app?page=PlayerDetail&playerId=8471324&service=page

    ;)

  10. Pat says:

    sorry, that link didn’t seem to work. The slower version of this joke is to manually find Reddox’s profile on the Oilers web page.

  11. Mr DeBakey says:

    Charlie Kronschnabel

    This year’s Patrick Thoreson?

  12. goldenchild says:

    I remember people saying Cogliano was going to be “Marchant with hands” at this point I would just settle for him to be Marchant, that would be more than enough to make this team.

  13. Lord Bob says:

    Marchant’s had a pretty bloody good career, so I don’t think any sane Oiler fan would turn another one of him down. And the Cogliano – Marchant comparison is so good that I actually want to think of another one because it’s too obvious.

  14. Bank Shot says:

    Went to the Bears vs. Rookies game. The Lineup looked like this as far I can remember:

    Trukhno-Cogliano-Rohlfs
    Micflikier-O’Marra-McDonald
    Kronschnabel-Paukovich-Foreman
    Quist-Karamnov-Kytnar

    McGinnis-Fake Plante
    Bisaillon-Pepe
    Holden-Peckham

    Colin McDonald
    Probably the most NHL ready player on the ice. Yea, he scored a goal, but besides that he did everything well. Good positioning, solid decisions with the puck, good defensively and at retrieving the puck. Only negative would be that he was sometimes over enthusiastic for taking the body and getting out of position a bit. Solid game. If that’s his regular game then I think he’s the darkhorse to make the big team.

    Ryan McGinnis Never heard of him before, but the guy was a stud, at least compared to the rest of the Rookies D-men. Didn’t make a bad decision all night, excellent down low coverage and active stick to break up passes, smart reads all over the ice, made safe decisions when moving the puck, good at seperating forwards from the puck in the corners, didn’t excell with PP time, but didn’t kill the play offensively either.
    Excellent stay at home D-man.

    One thing that could possibly hold him back is that he doesn’t seem to own any dominant qualities besides hockey sense. Skating may not be NHL calibre. Rewgardless I like his future going forward over any of the other D-men that played.

    Trukhno was pretty solid. Plus passer with decent vision, eager to battle for pucks in the corners/boards, shields the puck well, good stickhandling, made smart puck decisions the majority of the time, Not terribly fast, but knew how to utilize the spped of others through the neutral zone with well-timed passes. Wasn’t a real mucker in the D-zone, but he got the puck out when he got a chance. I can see why LT likes him. He just gets it.

    Cogliano had the puck on a string for large stretches of time. Fast, fast, fast. Good one on one moves. Skilled passer, but didn’t utilize his linemates all that well in my opinion. Average shot/release. Missed on some good scoring opportunities. Pretty good positionally in the D-zone, tended to overcommit at times on the PK. He tried to do too much, and forced things at times. Showed some fire in the third. Good puck possesion player. If he tries to be less of a hero in the rest of camp he’ll have a better chance to make the team IMO.

    Rohlfs. Not much of a skater I didn’t think. Played decently on both sides of the puck, but didn’t stand out in any way. I didn’t play all that close attention to him and he played a pretty quiet game so I am not sure what to think of him.

    McFlikier Got better as the game went on. Good hustle, and solid positioning. Superb at whacking down oppostion passes. Great defensive reads. Struggled making decisions with the puck on his stick, average/sub average puck skills. Surprisingly adept at finding quiet spots in the offensive zone, but lacked finish(that game anyhow). I think he’ll be a pretty important roleplayer in Springfield this season.

    O’Marra Good skater. Good hustle. Good grief… He took too many stupid penalties. Was quite imposing on the cycle a few times. His game should translate decently to the pros, but he looked pretty unpolished at this point. Unless he finds some extra awesome some place I can’t see him challenging for a spot.

    Kronschnabel!!! Big, strong and nasty. Ridiculous hunched over skating style. Plays the pro game well, but lacks skill. AHL energy guy?

    Paukovich Played a pretty decent D-game like the other older kids. Tall, gawky, akward skating stride and not exceptionally strong on his skates for 6’4″. Good at hacking the puck into bits when he got it. Sub par passing. Looked like Winchester-Lite.

    ForemanUndersized agitator. Meh

    Karamnov-Quist-Kytnar- You could tell these guys were the youngest out of the bunch, and accordingly they didn’t get alot of ice time. It’s pretty hard to judge them as they are still pretty rough around the edges, and playing against old guys. Not a threat to make the team. They all should decent skill though, and did some nice things in the offensive zone. Quist in particular showed some nice puck rushing skills through the neutral zone. Didn’t see what would make Karamnov a first round pick over the other two.

    Bisaillion- He was alright I guess. He’s got some nice wheels and a slapshot. Relatively mistake free, although he made some blunders positionally. Wasn’t all that creative offensively, for a guy that’ll make or break it as an offensive D-man. Might have looked better without Pepe.

    Peckham Currently the most overated Oilers prospect?

    He runs around looking for the big hit all the time. Constantly loses his check in the defensive zone, jumps into the play at the wrong times, can look like a plyon one on one. I think he lacks hockey sense.

    He’s aggresive and confident which might be why some like him. His hands seem soft enoug to make a good outlet pass. He’s got a hammer, some pliers, maybe a couple sizes of wrenches. Needs to find a box to put them in.

    Pepe, Holden There to fill out the roster I imagine. They should go to school, because I don’t think a hockey career is a prudent choice for them.

    Dubnyk, Fisher Looked ok I guess. Goalies don’t make sense to me. I just want mine to stop the damn puck.

  15. PunjabiOil says:

    O’Marra Good skater. Good hustle. Good grief… He took too many stupid penalties.
    ____

    Well, somebody has to replace Moreau sooner or later.

  16. ClaytonMagnet says:

    Interesting to me how Jon and Bank Shot were in the same rink at the same time, but apparently watched two different games.

    Completely off the topic, but this story ran in the Calgary Herald today about Oilers’ wives:

    http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=a9de116d-de21-456f-81c4-1f52668984ae&k=90802

    It was on the FRONT PAGE. Not of the sports section, but FRONT PAGE of the whole paper. Is Lowe using the remaining cap space to buy off Calgary Herald editors? I think so.

  17. Lord Bob says:

    Yes, Gagner was really, really good in the Super Series. Great. Really. He turned in a Jani Rita-esque performance in an exhibition series against a God-awful Russian side, so let’s pencil him in as a 50% shot.

    My “saw him good” alarm is roaring like a klaxon now. The people in the library are disturbed by it, but I don’t care. Yes, Gagner has skill, and he has some hops, and he can play the game and he’ll be in the NHL for a good long time. But I really hope the coaching staff isn’t letting eight exhibition games cloud their eyes too much.

    (By the way: I stand by Voracek-over-Gagner when all is said and done.)

  18. Mr DeBakey says:

    Everyone who saw
    Charlie Kronschnabel good

    The Oilers didn’t.

    He’s not on the training camp roster.

  19. Ribs says:

    Thanks to all with insights into the Golden Bears match. I love reading this stuff.

  20. Dennis says:

    Not that anyone would call me a pessimist or anything;) but I want to preface the following comment by saying that I think that Cogs will certainly be a guy that can play top six tough min, ie he’s not gonna be a Micheal Ryder or Lupul who needs to be hidden at all times.

    That being said, I doubt that the guys ever gonna score more than say 20 goals a season. He just seems to BE the marchant type where the hands never do catch up with the feet. Go back to ’97 and how fucking blown away were you that 26 scored on that breakaway? I mean just how many breakaways did that guy blow that season and other seasons to follow? It was uncanny. It was just like watching Russ Courtnall as a Hab back in the day. Both had speed that was other-worldly but even when they pulled away, they couldn’t finish the job. I just hear so much of the same things, and I saw them during the WJCs, regarding Cogs that I think it’s fair to say that for some guys, the hands never really do catch up to the feet.

    I’ll be satisifed if the kid ends up as a Horc: outscorer against tough opp and also a good playmaker but questionable goal-scoring chops. Such a maturation would please me to no end. But I doubt the kid’s gonna score a lot of goals in the NHL.

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