Rookie TOI Update


This is Jarret Stoll. He’s the reigning king of “Rookie TOI under Craig MacTavish” among forwards since fall 2000.

The list is here. Stoll is the leader of the 18 forwards listed, with Thoresen, Hemsky, Chimera and Pouliot rounding out the top 5.

From that July update: “I don’t think the Oilers are likely to have a Paul Stastny this fall for three reasons: there are no prospects who have a clear edge over the rest of the pack, the organization has a tremendous number of options on the prospect tree right now and finally coach MacT doesn’t hand out playing time to rookies in a way that makes them strong Calder candidates.”

I used Paul Stastny’s season because he is in the NW division and because he was a college kid we could compare at least a little to Cogliano.

The basic premise was that the Oilers wouldn’t have a strong Calder candidate because no rookie would get close to Stastny’s TOI: 1,500 minutes with 300 minutes on the powerplay as a rookie.

At this point, it looks like no rookie will get 1,500 minutes on this year’s Oiler team but Jarret Stoll’s number is in real trouble. If they keep up their current pace, several rookies will pass the 1,000 minute marker this year.

Andrew Cogliano would play over 1,150 minutes over a full season based on the early trend, and Sam Gagner would total pretty close to 1,000 as well. Kyle Brodziak would slide in at about the 950 mark so there are three guys who may challenge Stoll. Of course it’s a long season and you never know, but with three players breaking camp and playing regularly it would seem a strong possibility. Andrew Cogliano has the best chance.

As for PP, well no one is on track for 300 minutes ala Stastny, but Cogliano is on track for about 220 and Gagner for 144 minutes. Ales Hemsky got 153 minutes on the PP as a rookie.

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5 Responses to "Rookie TOI Update"

  1. Josh says:

    IIRC Statsny was a slow starter last year and absolutely demolished the opposition in the last few months of the reg season. We can only assume his minutes drastically increased at that time, so maybe if cogs can turn it up at some point in the season he could get closer to that 1500 mark.

    A few things would need to happen: a free fall to the bottom of the standings and veteran players underperforming/traded. This would cause MacT to play his rookies more in hopes for creating contibuting players for next year. In all of this he would somehow have to find a way to get Cogs 1500 mins and still protect him from tough opposition on a bad team.

    Either that or Cogliano can just light it and force MacT to give him big minutes.

  2. Asiaoil says:

    LT – I didn’t know where to put this but I pinched it from Victor who posted on HF. You have been very woried about losing something important from the Penner trade – so consider the following. Assume that Edmonton ends up around 22nd and picks 8th in the 2008 draft (not unreasonable). From 1995-2005 this is what the team that picked 8th, 38th, and 68th gave up:

    1995 – Terry Ryan, Peter Roed, Mattieu Sunderland
    1996 – Johnathon Aitken, Wes Mason, Konstantine Kalmikov
    1997 – Sergei Samsonov, Stanislav Gron, Sergei Yerkovich
    1998 – Mark Bell, Phillipe Sauve, Jarko Ruttu
    1999 – Taylor Pyatt, Dan Cavanaugh, Zedenk Blatny
    2000 – Nikita Alexeev, Tomas Kopecky, Joel Lundqvist
    2001 – Pascal Leclaire, Tim Jackman, Grant McNeill
    2002 – Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Josh Harding, Brett Skinner
    2003 – Braydon Coburn, Kamil Kreps, Jean-Francois Jacques
    2004 – Alexandre Picard, Justin Peters, Adam Berti
    2005 – Devin Setoguchi, Jeff Frazee, Evan Brophey

    Arbitrary start and end points to be sure – but it is a recent 10 year span that screams “so what” in terms of what we could give up.

  3. Lowetide says:

    asia: Part of being a fan is knowing when the moon and stars are about to align and kick you in the junk.

    I’m just saying. :-)

  4. Oilman says:

    Looking through the draft years 1995-2005, it looks like if we can stay out of giving up a top 5 pick for Penner, there’s not a lot to worry about. There are as many busts taken at 6 – 9ish as there are impact players taken at 15 -18ish.

  5. PunjabiOil says:

    Yeah, I never understood why draft picks were significantly overrated.

    The other question is, if Penner were drafted in 2008, would he be a top 10 pick?

    I think he would.

    He’s JVR that has developed with still room to grow.

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