EV Points-Per-60 for F(so far)

The 07-08 season is beginning to take shape, both in terms of the overall standings and in terms of specific player performances. As with every season and every sport, predicting this stuff is impossible. Still, it’s fun to review what has been delivered versus expectations.

The stats men on the blogosphere long ago convinced me that even strength points-per-hour is the absolute best line in the sand for establishing which players are having the greatest impact when the playing field is level. No wonky PP stats, just the facts at even strength. I don’t suss out the 4×4 numbers, this is just straight math from nhl.com.

Where it applies, last season’s pp-60 at EV is in brackets:

  1. Shawn Horcoff 2.99 (1.52)
  2. Ales Hemsky 2.20 (2.09)
  3. Kyle Brodziak 2.07
  4. Sam Gagner 1.99
  5. Andrew Cogliano 1.98
  6. Marty Reasoner 1.61 (1.45)
  7. Dustin Penner 1.41 (1.92)
  8. Robert Nilsson 1.31
  9. Raffi Torres 0.86 (1.94)
  10. Geoff Sanderson 0.62 (2.06)
  11. Jarret Stoll 0.54 (2.20)

Some observations:

  1. The biggest drop is Stoll (-1.66ppg), but Geoff Sanderson (-1.44ppg), Raffi Torres (-1.08ppg) and Dustin Penner (-.51) need to be better.
  2. Brodziak, Gagner and Cogliano are doing pretty well in this area. Gagner specifically looks way better than he is by this metric (his ability to have an impact on the game on many levels is being exposed currently) and Cogliano’s number is outstanding considering he’s also having an offensive impact on the PK and has a couple of PP assists.
  3. The forwards not listed above are scoreless, with Marc Pouliot having played the most pointless EV strength minutes (literally). I’m a fan of MP’s, but his performance this season added to last year’s number in the same category (1.17) really does imply he may not be able to hit above the Mendoza line.
  4. Nilsson’s number is close to his 05-06 NHL season where he had a 1.56 ppg at even strength.
  5. When you factor in the number of minutes he’s out there just for the faceoff in the defensive zone, Shawn Horcoff is having a tremendous season.
  6. Marty’s Marty.
  7. This does NOT factor in difficulty of minutes. You can assume Horcoff is doing the heavy lifting most nights, which makes his season even more exceptional.

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15 Responses to "EV Points-Per-60 for F(so far)"

  1. Andy Grabia says:

    really does imply he may not be able to hit above the Mendoza line.

    Question: what IS the Mendoza line for this stat? For that matter, what’s the .300 mark?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Andy: GREAT question. Although other members of the blogosphere would be better able to field it (certainly Rivers Q has actually addressed the question before when I asked it), I’d suggest that anything approaching or over 2.00/60 would be a very good season.

    As for the Mendoza line, well MP’s 1.17 for the 06-07 season might fit fairly well.

    Here’s a brief list of Oilers from 06-07:

    Stoll 2.20
    Hemsky 2.09
    Torres 1.94
    Penner (ANA) 1.92
    Horcoff 1.52
    Reasoner 1.45
    Pouliot 1.17
    Thoresen 1.15

    So at a guess, you’d have Stoll, Hemsky, Torres and Penner having good/great seasons (remember we haven’t looked at difficulty of minutes, so Penner’s offense would not be as impressive as Hemsky’s as a for instance just based on who 83 is batting against most innings).

    And I don’t think we can say Reasoner was awful based on who he played against or with last year.

    That’s my guess anyway, Andy. We’d need to study several seasons and see which players didn’t keep their jobs, but based on Thoresen being sent out and Pouliot not grabbing his job either, Mendoza lives in the 1.15-1.17 range.

    jmo.

  3. IceDragoon says:

    Good day…

    MacTavish had some interesting comments about Horcoff yesterday. Listen to Stoll, Horcoff and MacT at:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/team/app?gameNumber=286&gameType=2&page=Preview&season=20072008&service=page

    At 15:54 of the podcast a reporter asks, “Has Shawn become your most dependable player?” MacT says, “Oh, he’s been that for a long time…”
    :-D

    I’ve always thought that Horcoff would have to be pried out of MacT’s cold, dead, hands if KLo wanted to trade him, but these comments lend a little courage to my convictions.
    ;-D

    Thanx for the sussing you did do, Lain.

    Louise

  4. Lowetide says:

    Louise: I thought a turning point for Horcoff was the MacT comments and how he handled them. It clearly was a slap upside the head and could easily have become a bigger issue had Horcoff reacted poorly.

    But as a player he’s always played an intelligent game and I guess his conduct at camp shouldn’t have come as a surprise.

  5. mc79hockey says:

    In fairness to Horc, last year was far and away his worst offensive ES year, even worse than the deadpuck years. I don’t know that he’s a true talent 2.5 ESP/60 guy in today’s NHL, as he was in 2005-06, but I’m fairly confident that he’s over 2.0.

    In answer to Andy’s question, see my post here.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Excellent, MC. Thanks.

  7. Andy Grabia says:

    Thanks, Tyler.

  8. Andy Grabia says:

    Hmm. So Cogliano and Gagner are in the 70th percentile if I’m reading this right. That’s not bad. It’s only one look though, I guess. Doesn’t tell the whole story. I wonder how the other kids across the league are doing in this regard? I really need to get someone to hook me up with their database toys so I can look at this stuff myself.

  9. Vic Ferrari says:

    Good stuff LT. Have you looked at Zetterberg last season at this?

    2.81 EV points per hour.
    Just 22.4 shots-against per hour at evens.

    That’s around 20% less of a shots-against clip than Ovechkin, St.Louis, Savard, Briere, etc.

    Plus he takes on a bunch of tough icetime, none of these others do. (save maybe Savard this season, not sure what’s going on in Beantown).

    Re Z and tough opp: Maybe not as much as it appears from watching the playoffs, by the numbers it looks like Babcock brings out “Plan B” against the crap teams sometimes … still, the guy is a beast.

    It’s a shame the way that Ovechkin is being played. Reminiscent of Nash’s pre-Hitchcock years in Columbus. I’d bet that this is because of Leonsis’ interference, combined with the fact they hired an ex-goalie as a coach. But I don’t know. It’s a shame in any case.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Vic: I havent’ checked Z but he’s a ridiculous player, isn’t he? I sometimes think it’ll end up being a Fed/Y scenario with Henrik in the role of the MAN and Datsyuk going to the Hall.

    But there’s a long way to go, and they aren’t famous yet.

    btw, I haven’t seen DET much if at all this season: Is Hasek toast?

  11. Vic Ferrari says:

    Yeah, he’s been terrific for a long time. That wonderful playoff series I thought that Smyth/Horcoff/Staios did a terrific job of handling Zetterberg/Lidstrom at evens. Outchanced them even. Props to Winchester and the fat-necked guy as well.

    If Iginla/Tanguay/Regehr had managed to turn the same trick last spring … I shudder to think.

    That freed up Pronger to play against Yzerman and the like. DET just had (has) so many good players. Pronger got murdered in terms of chances and zone-time … but it would have been even worse if he wasn’t on the ice IMO. Probably a lot worse, even though that is difficult to imagine.

  12. Vic Ferrari says:

    LT:

    Haven’t seen enough of Hasek to comment, but I doubt it somehow. The highlights don’t look flattering, but surely all the smart money is on Hasek having an EVsave% that’s above average fom here on out.

    On Fedorov, he looks to be having something of a renaissance. He and Vyborny had gaudy corsi numbers a while ago (still do, but not as extreme). Aside from one game, and just going by the numbers, it seemed that for the most part Hitchcock was giving those two the easy ride. So I imagine that’s much of the reason.

    He’s inching Fedorov back into more responsibility now though. CBJ has been relying on LeClaire playing out of his skin, as MC says, still, a team to watch I think.

    If they can get Nash and Zherdev winning them games, as opposed to looking great while losing them games … that’s going to make a hell of a difference eventually methinks.

  13. Vic Ferrari says:

    In my earlier comment:

    fat-necked-guy = Spacek

    I had a brain cramp. :)

  14. Bruce says:

    It’s a shame the way that Ovechkin is being played.

    Did you catch Alex’s stats last night? 29:24 TOI (avg. shift 1:03), 9 S, 6 A/B, 3 MS, 3 HT, 2 GV, 1 TK, 3 BS. 1 goal, even on the night. Something of everything, but esp. shots. Not too often you see one guy attempt 18 shots on goal.

  15. Vic Ferrari says:

    Plenty of shots in both directions when Ovechkin is out there, Bruce.

    Granted this is in fairly limited viewing, but Hanlon has them playing a hard trap, and #8 spends most of the game hovering up high. Even with teams watching him closely, I’d think that he’ll lead the league in breakaways this year. As I imagine he did last year.

    It’s a shame, because he’s terrific at everything.

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